Andrew Dessler @AndrewDessler Prof of Atmospheric Sciences & climate scientist @ Texas A&M; AGU and AAAS Fellow has been prognosticating on Twitter, talking up a model that predicts another 2C of warming by 2100 (0.25C/decade, twice the rate 2013-2023).
When challenged about this alarming rate of warming, he clarified for us.
Of course, if the central estimate is warming of 0.25C/decade, but cooling is instead a possibility, this means that the upper bound for warming is at least 0.5C/decade. I think this tells us all we need to know about the usefulness of climate models (and the sanity of the modellers).
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What was the relevance of CO2 to climate again?
By ‘cooler’ he probably meant an increase of less than 3.3 degrees but still an increase.
I don’t normally comment directly IN these discussions: not quite my levelof Theoretical competence. However! the sanity of the modellers…. The Mannie’s a PROFESSOR ! What kind of an institution does he work for? Oh one like those in London (UK): – we all know what like THEY were recently in COvid, etc. It’s the pure nonsense they come out with for those working in the real PHYSICAL World. I Posted earlier about recharging a battery from another battery…. Put another way to ( in their vanilla Ivory world) illustrate the physical problem: Re-inflate / recharge an air accumulator or tyre from a small air tank, running low on air ( pressure) wher to go withthis small tank to gat a refill to refill the tyre, and continue up the line for higher air pressures…. eventually needing an ELECTRIC Compressor – but the windmill don’t turn ( no wind AGAIN – YET), and for the sake of another Analogy to keep these gonks happy: recharging my old 3G Fone…. from the Local Mega kV Power transmission line won’t work, so I’ve got to go back to a(12V) battery to be re charge d from …. heard it before ? But these Professors / politicians / Green-Engineers have never experienced these real life problems – thanks to Coal n Oil power generation….. just saying
the usual suspects are SO desperate to replace the dead horse of covid! covid! covid! that they decided to segue back to Manbearpig and The Satanic Gases for their fear porn. Along the way they ramp up the scary stories about the Earth catching fire because of my F-150 and backyard grill.
I am so worn out with this rubbish being passed off as science.
Hmmm two or three degrees, that sounds pretty good !
Just like moving from Melbourne to Brisbane !
I love a straight line in a non-linear system.
Linear modelling, non-linear system.
See if you can spot the problem!
Mind the Latitude. It may be both warmer and cooler.
The next obliquity fling, going back on historical evidence, is to lower. Borrowing an extract from a thread from Malagabay; link https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2021/03/14/ptolemys-paradigm-sol-invictus-orbit/
“According to Ptolemy, the best recognized authority, whose geography had stood the test of thirteen hundred years, the then known world was a strip of some seventy degrees wide, mostly north of the equator, with Cadiz on the west, and farthest India or Cathay on the east, lying between the frozen and burning zones, both impassable by man.”
Now the site DIO says that Ptolemy was a trickster, but maybe he could be quoting sound evidence from earlier times. See http://dioi.org/j801.pdf and go to ‘final remark’.