Gulf Stream map [image credit: RedAndr @ Wikipedia]
This article at The Conversation, by a former IPCC author warning against the excesses of media climate catastrophism, appeared on the 4th August but was somewhat undermined by another one it published the next day: The Atlantic is at risk of circulation collapse. It would mean even greater climate chaos across Europe.
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Those following the latest developments in climate science would have been stunned by the jaw-dropping headlines last week proclaiming the “Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests” — which responded to a recent publication in Nature Communications, says The Conversation (via Phys.org).
“Be very worried: Gulf Stream collapse could spark global chaos by 2025” announced the New York Post. “A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that ‘would affect every person on the planet” noted CNN in the U.S. and repeated CTV News here in Canada.
One can only imagine how those already stricken with climate anxiety internalized this seemingly apocalyptic news as temperature records were being shattered across the globe.
This latest alarmist rhetoric provides a textbook example of how not to communicate climate science. These headlines do nothing to raise public awareness, let alone influence public policy to support climate solutions.
. . .
The currents are not collapsing (anytime soon)
While it was relatively easy to show that it is not possible for global warming to cause an ice age, this still hasn’t stopped some from promoting this false narrative.
The latest series of alarmist headlines may not have fixated on an impending ice age, but they still suggest the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could collapse by 2025.
This is an outrageous claim at best and a completely irresponsible pronouncement at worst.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been assessing the likelihood of a cessation of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic for decades. In fact, I was on the writing team of the 2007 4th Assessment Report where we concluded that:
“It is very likely that the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) will slow down during the course of the 21st century. It is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo a large abrupt transition during the course of the 21st century.”
Almost identical statements were included in the 5th Assessment Report in 2013 and the 6th Assessment Report in 2021. Other assessments, including the National Academy of Sciences Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, published in 2013, also reached similar conclusions.
The 6th assessment report went further to conclude that:
“There is no observational evidence of a trend in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), based on the decade-long record of the complete AMOC and longer records of individual AMOC components.”
Full article here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
This “the ocean current will stop flowing” is in the same box as “the wind will stop blowing”.
While the planet continues to spin on its daily axis both events are impossible,
Thing we don’t understand might change if model that is almost certainly wrong happens to be correct.
This “the science” apparently.
IPCC – “There is no observational evidence of a trend in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)”
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Guardian – Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests
A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis
The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.
-. . .
The new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, used sea surface temperature data stretching back to 1870 as a proxy for the change in strength of Amoc currents over time.
The researchers then mapped this data on to the path seen in systems that are approaching a particular type of tipping point called a “saddle-node bifurcation”. The data fitted “surprisingly well”, Ditlevsen said. The researchers were then able to extrapolate the data to estimate when the tipping point was likely to occur. Further statistical analysis provided a measure of the uncertainty in the estimate.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests
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Bzzzt! – ‘sea surface temperature data stretching back to 1870’?
Concerning sea surface temperatures.
Note that in the decades before the advent of the significant coverage of the oceans by the buoy networks, the ocean temperature data was acquired in the main by ship’s engine room water inlet temperature data or by measuring the temperature in buckets thrown over the side on a rope.
Ship’s engine cooling water inlet temperature data is acquired from the engine room cooling inlet temperature gauges by the engineers at their convenience, there is no protocol for the recording of the temperatures.
There is no standard for either the location of the inlets with regard especially to depth below the surface, the position in the pipework of the measuring instruments or the time of day the reading is taken and the position of the temperature sensor may be anywhere between the hull of the ship and the engine cylinder head itself.
The instruments themselves are of industrial quality, their limit of error in °C per DIN EN 13190 is ±2 deg C. for a class 2 instrument or sometimes even ±4 deg. C, as can be seen in the tables here: DS_IN0007_GB_1334.pdf . After installation it is exceptionally unlikely that they are ever checked for calibration.
It is not clear how such readings can be compared with the readings from buoy instruments specified (optimistically IMO) to a limit of error of tenths or even hundreds of a degree C. or why they are considered to have any value whatsoever for the purposes to which they are put, which is to produce historic trends apparently precise to 0.001 deg. C upon which spending of literally trillions of £/$/whatever are decided.
But hey, this is climate “science” we’re discussing so why would a little thing like that matter?
“It would mean even greater climate chaos across Europe.”
Climate chaos is caused by elites listening to Greta Thunberg, a fierce lady with a medal for truancy. A jealousy, maybe?
The
only thing worse than a war monger is a fear monger
I’m 72. The Gulf Stream was collapsing when I was a teenager. Luckily, I didn’t hold my breath.
Have the global warmists ever got any prediction correct since they first started spouting off about a new ice age back in 1970?
[…] Posted on August 9, 2023 by HiFast The ‘Gulf Stream’ will not collapse in 2025: What the alarmist headlines got wrong […]
I suggest that anyone really interested should read up on Prof Ian Plimer’s writings such as in the Australian Spectator of 24th June 2023 where he explains that the Earth is already at Net Zero. He writes about the heating caused by ocean venting being more significant than other sources of co2 etc. He also asks why Plate Tectonics have not been examined more closely. If you want an entirely new view of global warming, here it is.
Reconstruction of Atmospheric CO2 Background Levels since 1826 from Direct Measurements near Ground (2022)
Ernst-Georg Beck†, Institute of Biology III, University of Freiburg
The CO2 MBL levels since 1826 to 2008 show a good correlation to the global SST (Kaplan, KNMI; see Figure 26) with a CO2 lag of 1 year after SST from cross correlation (Figure 26a).
Click to access Beck-2010-Reconstruction-of-Atmospheric-CO2.pdf
MBL = marine boundary level
H/T Harald Yndestad
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Lunar Forced Mauna Loa and Atlantic CO2 Variability (2022)
Harald Yndestad
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
In this investigation, a wavelet spectrum analysis identifies the signature of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 growth from 1960 to 2020 and Atlantic atmospheric CO2 for the period 1870 to 1960. The result reveals that the Atlantic CO2 variability from 1870-1960 coincides with Mauna Loa CO2 growth variability, global sea surface temperature variability and lunar nodal tide variability.
Click to access Yndestad-2022-Lunar-Forced-CO2-Variability.pdf
The study in question says:
We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w
Study title: Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
See also: Atlantic collapse: Q&A with scientists behind controversial study predicting a colder Europe
by Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen, The Conversation
AUGUST 13, 2023
“We definitely need more measurements of the AMOC. But we also have to understand that we cannot measure back in time. However, since we don’t and cannot have these very, very detailed measurements from pre-industrial times, before global warming, it’s also difficult to assess what the natural variability is and what the natural behavior is before global warming.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-atlantic-collapse-qa-scientists-controversial.html
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In that mindset ‘global warming’ and ‘natural warming’ are two different things.