New research says orbital factors show why and when the Sahara Desert was green 

Posted: September 14, 2023 by oldbrew in climate, Cycles, modelling, Natural Variation, paleo, research, solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

Sahara desert from space [image credit: NASA]


No trace gases required to drive these climate processes. It was found that ‘the North African Humid Periods occurred every 21,000 years and were determined by changes in Earth’s orbital precession.’
– – –
A pioneering study has shed new light on North African humid periods that have occurred over the past 800,000 years and explains why the Sahara Desert was periodically green, says Science Daily.

The research, published in Nature Communications, showed periodic wet phases in the Sahara were driven by changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun and were suppressed during the ice ages.

For the first time, climate scientists simulated the historic intervals of ‘greening’ of the Sahara, offering evidence for how the timing and intensity of these humid events were also influenced remotely by the effects of large, distant, high-latitude ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere.

Lead author Dr Edward Armstrong, a climate scientist at the University of Helsinki and University of Bristol, said: “The cyclic transformation of the Sahara Desert into savannah and woodland ecosystems is one of the most remarkable environmental changes on the planet.

“Our study is one of the first climate modelling studies to simulate the African Humid Periods with comparable magnitude to what the palaeoclimate observations indicate, revealing why and when these events occurred.”

There is widespread evidence that the Sahara was periodically vegetated in the past, with the proliferation of rivers, lakes and water-dependent animals such as hippos, before it became what is now desert. These North African Humid Periods may have been crucial in providing vegetated corridors out of Africa, allowing the dispersal of various species, including early humans, around the world.

The so-called ‘greenings’ are thought to have been driven by changes in Earth’s orbital conditions, specifically Earth’s orbital precession. Precession refers to how Earth wobbles on its axis, which influences seasonality (i.e. the seasonal contrast) over an approximate 21,000-year cycle.

These changes in precession determine the amount of energy received by the Earth in different seasons, which in turn controls the strength of the African Monsoon and the spread of vegetation across this vast region.

A major barrier to understanding these events is that the majority of climate models have been unable to simulate the amplitude of these humid periods, so the specific mechanisms driving them have remained uncertain.

This study deployed a recently-developed climate model to simulate the North African Humid periods to greatly advance understanding of their driving mechanisms.

The results confirm the North African Humid Periods occurred every 21,000 years and were determined by changes in Earth’s orbital precession.

This caused warmer summers in the Northern Hemisphere, which intensified the strength of the West African Monsoon system and increased Saharan precipitation, resulting in the spread of savannah-type vegetation across the desert.

The findings also show the humid periods did not occur during the ice ages, when there were large glacial ice sheets covering much of the high latitudes. This is because these vast ice sheets cooled the atmosphere and suppressed the tendency for the African monsoon system to expand.

This highlights a major teleconnection between these distant regions, which may have restricted the dispersal of species, including humans, out of Africa during the glacial periods of the last 800,000 years.

Co-author Paul Valdes, Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Bristol, said: “We are really excited about the results. Traditionally, climate models have struggled to represent the extent of the ‘greening’ of the Sahara. Our revised model successfully represents past changes and also gives us confidence in their ability to understand future change.”

Full article here.

Comments
  1. ivan says:

    So this is all based on computer games which makes any results very unreliable. When will these idiots realise computer games do NOT give actual results, it is like saying 2+2=6 because the computer said so.

  2. Tish Farrell says:

    This Smithsonian Mag article on the archaeology/ecology/human animal grazers angle is a more interesting story. It seems to involve some actual fieldwork. Also indicates the repeat humidity effect has long been known about.
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-really-turned-sahara-desert-green-oasis-wasteland-180962668/

  3. oldbrew says:

    How the Sun Affects Climate Solar and Milankovitch Cycles

    At the same time, the elliptical orbit rotates, more slowly, leading to a 21,000-year cycle between the seasons and the orbit.

    Click to access Climate-Change-Causes.pdf

    – – –
    With current data the beat period of the tropical (TY) and anomalistic (AY) years is about 20,940 years (i.e. when the difference of TY and AY numbers is exactly 1).

  4. Chaeremon says:

    @oldbrew, the perihelion [date] advance as offset from/to equinox is ~56 years/°, times 360° =~ 20160 [Solex with DE431]; but astronomically effective impact of planets can only be guessed (from multiple rounding problems).

    OTOH “we” have man-made records from ~37000 – ~21500 years ago — already partly “deciphered”.

  5. oldbrew says:

    A ratio of 3:13:16 between perihelion, axis, and combined (~20940y) precessions based entirely on the anomalistic, sidereal and tropical years and their mutual beat periods, has been discussed before.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/02/01/why-phi-a-unified-precession-model/
    – – –
    Re. the Smithsonian article, how many humans and goats were present 11,000 years ago? Enough to make a serious impact on > 3 million square miles of land? The article itself says:

    It’s important to note that the green Sahara always would’ve turned back into a desert even without humans doing anything—that’s just how Earth’s orbit works, says geologist Jessica Tierney, an associate professor of geoscience at the University of Arizona. Moreover, according to Tierney, we don’t necessarily need humans to explain the abruptness of the transition from green to desert. [bold added]

    Sahara data:
    https://www.britannica.com/place/Sahara-desert-Africa

  6. jb says:

    Oldbrew, I do not understand the point of the “Climate Change Causes” paper. There are several repudiated concepts therein upon which it is based, the most recent by Ned Nikolov in his article posted here Jan 2022. He concludes: “the Milankovitch orbital cycles are poorly correlated (if at all) to changes of global surface temperature inferred from sediment- and icecore proxies for the past 784 Ky. Hence, the geological record provides no evidence that Ice Ages of the past one million years were controlled or even influenced by known variations of Earth’s orbital parameters.”

    As for the present paper, I fail to see how excitement over a model correlating to poorly understood orbital mechanisms is valid. Pauper is the earliest discreditor of models I know of. If anything, these announcements only continue to exhibit the complete lack of scientific ability.

  7. oldmanK says:

    On the Sahara we have been here before.
    PBS documentaries, specifically pbs-skeletons of the sahara part 2 (which I can no longer find on Youtube) showed dates of when the Sahara was green and inhabited and when it was not. This was interesting because the dates corresponded to Eddy cycle peaks and roots in the Holocene. Same dates precisely, found from various proxies.
    This new video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GSlgaNdd7c is a more detailed and recent study of the skeletons; and with the dates.

    The link to an orbital precession of 21k years is very wrong. Abrupt obliquity changes in the holocene have been accompanied by precession jumps (the gyro effect). The obliquity changes, first perceived by Dodwell were supported by measurements in old calendars, and various proxies. However the theoretically dictated precession change were elusive. Finally no more (for 2346bce). Basing research on assumed small secular changes only is meaningless.

  8. oldbrew says:

    African humid period – see the section on ‘Orbital changes’ here.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_humid_period#Causes

    Also: A “pacemaker” for North African climate
    Study shows the Sahara swung between lush and desert conditions every 20,000 years, in sync with monsoon activity.
    Jennifer Chu | MIT News Office
    Publication Date: January 2, 2019

    A new analysis of African dust reveals the Sahara swung between green and desert conditions every 20,000 years, in sync with changes in the Earth’s tilt.

    https://news.mit.edu/2019/study-regulating-north-african-climate-0102

    So now there’s a choice between obliquity (tilt, ~41kyr/2) and combined precession 🤔

  9. adolfogiurfa says:

    Easy: When the Earth rotated from east to west, instead of west to east, The Sahara in Africa was the equivalent of today´s Amazon jungle. Anyway the Earth was considerably GREENER in the Cretaceous Era, with its GORGEOUS 5,000 ppm of CO2. Here, “they”, the UN´s silly tantrum kids got it wrong: if they want us to keep not ripe, not to evolve, they should promote CO2 production, increasing vegetation, chlorophyll, glucose, cellulose (& its polymer…cotton for their trousers, and wood for their houses). http://www.giurfa.com/ripening.pdf

  10. oldmanK says:

    Research from sea sediment around the African coast by Dr P DeMenocal showed the abrupt desiccation of the Sahara occurred about 5500BP. The emphasis made was its abruptness, in less than a century.
    That is not the slow secular tilt changes.

  11. oldbrew says:

    The Sahel is greening – GWPF

    Click to access mueller-sahel.pdf

    Increased rainfall, contrary to alarmist severe drought predictions.

  12. Phoenix44 says:

    Climate models haven’t been able to reproduce large-scale events of the past but they can tell us the future very accurately…

    The cognitive dissonance is climate science is striking.

  13. Phoenix44 says:

    Increased CO2 is insufficient for greening – more photosynthesis requires more water.

    [reply] see GWPF link above

  14. oldbrew says:

    Climate obsessives keep saying a warming atmosphere can hold more moisture. Of course they also predict more and/or worse droughts.

  15. oldmanK says:

    Re the GWPF link: part quote “However, the greening cannot be explained solely by the increase in rainfall. There were vegetation increases in areas where rainfall was decreasing, suggesting another factor was responsible for the greening–“.

    If I recall correctly some decades ago irrigation was introduced. The source of the water was an extensive water table with great amounts of water lying very shallow beneath the surface. This water was being extracted and pumped via metre diameter pipes.

    A documentary video by the name ‘How the Sahara was made’ starts by showing an extensive area of large marine mammal fossils, stating that that indicated the region was under water. A small rise in continental mass dried the region, but also created an extensive area of fresh water lakes, which maybe today’s water table. Meaning that the greening may be due to geological effects not climate.

    The Sahara dried abruptly, as proven by DeMenocal. The date from sediments was 3550bce. That date appears in other proxies. In archaeology this was about a time when ancient structures indicate an earth tilt change, a turning point near an Eddy cycle peak; to a lower tilt. About that time Otzi’s mountain area showed an abrupt reduction in temperature as indicated from the flora and tree line changes.

    From a wider perspective the primary driver of change in the Sahara is not climate; climate is a collateral change.

  16. oldbrew says:

    From the research paper: North African humid periods over the past 800,000 years

    Currently, 230 of these North African humid periods (NAHPs) have been identified in proxy records over the past 8 myr. They were ultimately driven by the precession cycle, which governs the seasonal insolation contrast and is modulated by eccentricity, with periods of increased boreal summer insolation (i.e., precession minima) intensifying the African monsoon system. Internal biogeophysical feedbacks then amplified the external orbital forcing and further enhanced precipitation.

    Although precession is evident in numerous monsoon proxies, some records show gaps in NAHPs at intervals of precession minima termed skipped beats. These coincide with glacial periods, suggesting that the monsoon response could be modulated by eccentricity and/or obliquity.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41219-4

  17. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew: in any set of reading, a frequency analysis will likely show all or most of the contributing variables, however small. What is needed to detect are the occasional ‘Dragon Kings’. The step inputs.

    Link: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0907/0907.4290.pdf

    “If events of large impacts are part of
    a population described by a power law distribution,
    the common wisdom is that there is no way to predict
    them because nothing distinguish them from their
    small siblings: their great sizes and impacts come out
    as surprises, beyond the realm of normal expectations.”

    This point is always being missed.

  18. stpaulchuck says:

    Nicola Scafetta, PhD was years ahead on this subject.

    ‘Testing An Astronomically Based Decadal-Scale Empirical Harmonic Climate Model vs. The IPCC (2007) General Circulation Climate Models’ by Nicola Scafetta, PhD

    and here’s the master giving a presentation on it

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW5-h9wn3OQ

Leave a comment