El Niño graphic [credit: NOAA]
Climate alarmists have been waiting nearly 8 years, since the last significant El Niño, for another chance to claim natural climate variation as an expression of their chosen non-natural theories. Tremble – or not – as the study authors predict ‘a cascade of climate crises’.
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A strong El Niño event is going to wreak havoc on global surface temperature and trigger several climate crises in 2023–2024, according to researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. [Talkshop comment – the hype has already started].
The El Niño event, known for releasing massive heat into the atmosphere, is poised to change atmospheric circulation patterns, influence tropical-extratropical interactions, and impact subtropical jets, monsoons, and even polar vortices, and finally results in a rapid surge in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST), says Phys.org.
The study was published in The Innovation Geoscience on Sept. 15.
GMST, which integrates global land surface temperature and sea surface temperature, is one of the vital indicators of climate variability and global warming.
Its interannual variability is primarily dominated by ENSO events, with El Niño events being particularly influential due to their capacity to release immense heat into the atmosphere, leading to anomalies in atmospheric circulation and changes in the surface energy balance.
Earlier in 2023, the ensemble prediction system developed by IAP has predicted that there will be an El Niño event in boreal autumn and may be maintained throughout winter.
Based on historical climate data and prior studies, the IAP team revealed the potential extent and consequences of the extreme warming expected in 2023–2024.
Their findings indicate a 17% probability that the 2023 GMST will become the highest recorded since 1950, and a staggering 61% probability that it will rank among the top three. In 2024, these probabilities suddenly rise to 56% and 79%, respectively. [Talkshop comment – ‘staggering’? None of this proves anything.]
During the development of a strong El Niño in 2023, warm anomalies are expected to predominantly affect the tropical central-eastern Pacific, the Eurasian continent, and Alaska. However, in the following year, 2024, warm anomalies are likely to encompass the entire continents, significantly increasing the chance of land-based heat waves, droughts, and wildfires.
According to Prof. Zheng Fei, corresponding author of the study, “In addition to the surge in surface temperatures, the strong El Niño in 2023-2024 is predicted to trigger a cascade of climate crises.”
Full article here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Well, now then…. it seems 10% of the water in the stratosphere now is from 2022’s Hungry Tonger event, the Barbecue Volcano that put a load of surprised fish into low Earth orbit, almost a re run of the Sperm Whale materialising over Magrathea in the Hitch Hikers Guide. That water is going to do something to the climate which, as Ian Plimer points out in his recent Tom Nelson interview, includes coming down as rain or snow somewhere else as excess precipitation. What goes up…. NASA already said they expect the ec evnt to make the planet a bit warmer. But what do they know about prediction? Not a good record with Shuttles and ice either. Obtaining and fiddling with the data, yes. NASA is the Jimmy Saville of climate data, because they can get away with such abuse. As for their astrological skills with models, forgetabout it. It overtly seems reasonable that LWIR will be scattered more in the stratosphere, so the effective TOA will rise? THat means less heat loss, so a small warming correction to SST to reset the thermal equilibrium seems likely. NASA may even be right. Don’t hold your breath, though.
Iowa: NOAA predicts warmer winter(yay)
meanwhile; farmers almanac predicts colder winter(boo-hiss)
Ok (I ain’t completely confused yet–but I am working on it.)
meanwhile: The world has been warming since the end of the “little ice age” (eek oh noooo) but we still ain’t come up to the early holocene climate optimum (gee darn). I want to see the arctic ocean’s shores forested as they were during mis 11, and maybe during mis 5.
Why do the alarmist seem to want it colder?
Study: Meanwhile, the likelihood that the El Niño might be weaker than forecasted should not be ignored because 13% of the 100 members report a weak to moderate type of El Niño.
https://www.the-innovation.org/article/doi/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2023.100030
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Aka hedging your bets.
Hmmm…”several climate crises in 2023–2024″…
How can there be a number of crises in a couple of years in a system generally considered to be the average of a period of at least thirty years?
Hmm, teecher wood ave tellt us that peepel cannot speak or count proper
So really it is all code, researchers crying out to us for help as they have lost all sense of command of the English language and ability to read and understand Simple Mathematics – Statistics & Arithmetic to the rest of us, says Gramps, ( or words to that effect ).
So don’t rock the boat and complain because these poor intellectuals have been following in Coleridge’s footsteps …. must have done – how else to explain?
“Wreak havoc on global temperatures…”
What does that mean? Most people on most days in most places will experience temperatures absolutely within the range of 10, 20 and 100 years ago. Most places at most times will not experience record highs. But the averages will be a little higher.
Havoc indeed.
Meanwhile, the much-vaunted “consensus” is coming apart from the top down:
“IPCC chairman rebukes exaggerated climate alarm
The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) has welcomed the rebuke of exaggerated climate hype and alarm by Professor Jim Skea, the new Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
In interviews with German media, Skea said it is wrong and misleading for climate activists to imply that temperature increases of 1.5°C posed an existential threat to humanity.
In the eyes of many climate activists, limiting warming to 1.5°C has become the decisive benchmark for ‘saving the planet’. In 2018, the IPCC warned that humanity had 12 years to prevent a global climate catastrophe if global warming could not be limited to 1.5°C.
https://www.sustainabilitymatters.net.au/content/sustainability/news/ipcc-chairman-rebukes-exaggerated-climate-alarm-329382719#:~:text=In%20interviews%20with%20German%20media,for%20'saving%20the%20planet‘.
Why Did Bill Gates Make Sudden U-Turn On Climate Doom Narrative?
Microsoft co-founder, philanthropist, and climate alarmist Bill Gates has backtracked on ‘climate doom’ prophecies. The writing is on the wall for the political and financial elites, who have long championed imminent climate doom, realizing that the public sees through the charades.
In 2021, Gates previously warned about apocalyptic consequences if the world does not achieve zero net carbon emissions by the year 2050. He also promoted his new book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster” (fear sells).
On Thursday, Gates made a sudden U-turn on his climate doom narrative and now expects “No temperate country is going to become uninhabitable.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-did-bill-gates-make-sudden-u-turn-climate-doom-narrative?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1848
The image shows correctly the direction of El Nino current, BUT REALITY NOW IS THE CONTRARY, THE OTHER WAY AROUND! Sea waters are COOLING OFF PROCESS , i.e.The Cup of Tea is cooling down! As we are in the Solar Landscheidt Minimum. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/level/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-75.90,-11.60,1115/loc=-97.922,-7.500
The apocalypse merchants who try to take everyone for fools just make fools of themselves.
Not much alarm even using alarmist climate theory…
SEPTEMBER 29, 2023
Climate model provides data-driven answer to major goal of climate research
by Dr. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville
When compared to other current climate models, the research results from Spencer and Christy’s one-dimensional climate model approached the bottom end of the range, 1.9° Celsius. The lower UAH value indicates that the climate impact of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations is much less that that based on other climate models.
“An important assumption of our model, as well as the more complex models used by others, is that all climate change is human caused,” Spencer states. “If recent warming is partly natural, it would further reduce climate sensitivity.”
What distinguishes this model developed at UAH from others is that it is driven by actual observations of warming, rather than theoretical assumptions about how the climate system responds to increasing greenhouse gases. [bold added]
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-climate-data-driven-major-goal.html
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If recent warming is wholly natural, climate sensitivity is a dud.
Anchovy catches (anchovy lives in cold water) along the peruvian coasts (El Nino) show warm waters surfacing in the current process of cooling off.
https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/consulta/grafico
Russian climate models OK, rest…not so much.
Spencer & Christie (2023):
From the Abstract: Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations.
. . .
From the Summary:
Our results support previous observation-based studies (reviewed by Scafetta 2022) that EffCS during the historical period is in the lower range of those diagnosed from CMIP6 models, specifically matching only the two Russian models, INM-CM4 and INM-CM5.
. . .
…many of those [CMIP6] models continue to have issues conserving energy.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-023-04634-7#Sec5