
Perhaps we should be looking out for an anomalously short solar cycle to provide support for predictions of an approaching return to
cooler planetary conditions? The aurora-based result doesn’t appear in the 2021 tree ring study reported here, which goes back as far as AD 969.
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The sun’s solar cycles were once around three years shorter than they are today, a new analysis of centuries-old Korean chronicles reveals.
This previously unknown anomaly occurred during a mysterious solar epoch known as the “Maunder Minimum,” more than 300 years ago, says LiveScience.
The sun is constantly in a state of flux. Our home star cycles through periods of increased activity, known as solar maximum, when solar storms become more frequent and powerful, as well as spells of reduced activity, known as solar minimum, when solar storms almost completely disappear.
It currently takes about 11 years for the sun to complete a solar cycle, from minimum to maximum and back again. Scientists can track the sun’s progress through a solar cycle by counting the number of sunspots on the star’s surface, which appear more frequently in the lead-up to and during solar maximum.
But just as the sun fluctuates within individual cycles, historical sunspot records show that over longer periods, spanning decades or centuries, the overall output of solar cycles can also rise and fall.
The Maunder Minimum, sometimes referred to as the Grand Solar Minimum, was a period of greatly reduced solar activity between 1645 and 1715 when sunspots “effectively disappeared,” Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado who was not involved in the recent research, told Live Science in an email.
During this time, the sun’s output was so low that average global temperatures also dropped, in what scientists have dubbed a “mini ice age,” according to NASA — though it was also likely linked to high levels of volcanic eruptions at the time.
Sunspot records paint a general picture of the Maunder Minimum, which is named after the English astronomer Edward Walter Maunder. But there is still much about the period that scientists don’t know.
In the new study, published Oct. 3 in the journal AGU Advances, researchers analyzed historic auroral records from Korea and found that solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum were only eight years long on average — three years shorter than modern cycles.
Full article here.
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Study: The 8-Year Solar Cycle During the Maunder Minimum (Oct. 2023)
Plain Language Summary
The solar cycle length during the Maunder Minimum is vital for understanding the appearance of the grand solar minimum. However, owing to the limited data quality of the currently used solar activity proxies, the cyclic variation of solar activity still needs to be explored during the Maunder minimum. Here, we show definitive observational evidence of an 8-year solar cycle during the Maunder Minimum using historical observations of equatorial aurorae. The 8-year solar cycle length found here provides a pivotal clue to understanding the origin and predictability of the grand solar minimum.
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it was also likely linked to high levels of volcanic eruptions at the time
Maybe, but volcanoes don’t make sunspots vanish from the Sun.
Was that what he was saying? It does seem that increased volcanic and seismic activity is linked to low solar activity.
“The Maunder Minimum, sometimes referred to as the Grand Solar Minimum, was a period of greatly reduced solar activity between 1645 and 1715 when sunspots ‘effectively disappeared,’…”
Low solar activity creates low sunspot counts which indicated less “solar wind” which allows greater cosmic radiation to penetrate Earth’s atmosphere. Cosmic rays will collide with some molecules in the atmosphere creating a “nugget” around which a water droplet can form… bottom line, few sunspots lead to greater cloud cover which tends to lower temperatures.
Sunspot counts should be a good indicator of cooler periods.
The sun is over 4.5 billion years old. We’ve observed it properly for maybe 1,000 years. That’s 0.000025% of its life. We have no clue about it.
There was a large volcano in Papua New Guinea around 1660, but nothing else is listed during the Maunder minimum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_volcanism_on_Earth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Island_(Papua_New_Guinea)#Geography
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I suspect the volcanism claim is just an attempt to divert attention away from the lack of sunspots.
How do you measure the length of a solar cycle when there are no sunspots?
CG – good question.
One way is ‘the discovery of a strong correlation between solar activity and radioactive carbon 14 in tree rings’.
https://heartland.org/opinion/the-sun-not-co2-determines-our-climate-contoski/
The Rhythms of the Sun hypothesis explores the possible root causes of the solar cycle and its effects on energy output over the last 5000-years. The projected timing of events is very relevant to known grand solar minimums.
The study itself talks of an (averaged) 8.2 year cycle, about 3/4 of the expected mean length of ~11y. Also:
Taking advantage of the highly hemispheric asymmetric of sunspot activity with almost all sunspots confined to the southern hemisphere during the Maunder Minimum (Ribes & Nesme-Ribes, 1993), the ∼8–9-year cycle in the hemispheric asymmetry of solar activity gives clues to understand the solar dynamo during the Maunder Minimum. [bold added]
This :- https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux also shows a significant drop in sunspot numbers.
[reply] prediction page – see Oct. 31 comment below
Re. the volcanism, this new study discusses a big one in 1650…
Cascading events during the 1650 tsunamigenic eruption of Kolumbo volcano
The most recent eruption, in 1650 CE, formed a cone consisting of up to ~260 m-thick stratified pumice deposits, which breached the sea surface before being destroyed by a violent explosive eruption that formed a 500-m-deep and 2500-m-wide crater.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42261-y
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One theoretical possibility…
Climate-forcing volcanic eruptions correlate with solar activity
The conclusion drawn from this research is that if low sunspot numbers are involved in triggering climate-forcing volcanism, then a long-term process involving magnetized solar wind is implicated.
https://iceageearth.com/2018/12/08/volcanism-low-solar-activity-8kyr/
Not sure what the point of a monthly-updated prediction is. The accuracy so far in this cycle is obviously quite low so who is it supposed to benefit?
Solar Cycle Progression Updated Prediction (Experimental)
Input is being sought through December 31, 2023 on the deployment of this experimental product. Please let us know what you think by filling out a survey
https://testbed.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression-updated-prediction-experimental
The shortest sunspot cycles occur in the middle of longer centennial solar minima, because Venus-Earth-Jupiter cycles return faster to configure with Neptune than they do with Uranus.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YOu7hHVEuaWWLuztj6ThEsJd7Z-765Uz-L68lQbRdbQ/edit