600 years of tree rings reveal climate variability in California, droughts and floods more severe and longer lasting than in the modern record

California’s San Joaquin Valley and Central Valley [image credit: Mark Miller @ Wikipedia]

The region studied has a naturally varying climate, as do most regions of the world. One minute the article says the last few centuries there had more weather extremes than now, the next it implies the future could or will be like that again or worse, due to being ‘compounded’ by the catch-all *climate change*. File under ‘unconvincing’?
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The San Joaquin Valley in California has experienced vast variability in climate extremes, with droughts and floods that were more severe and lasted longer than what has been seen in the modern record, according to a new study of 600 years of tree rings from the valley, says Eurekalert.

The researchers used the tree rings to reconstruct plausible daily records of weather and streamflow scenarios during the 600-year period.

This new approach, combining paleo information with synthetic weather generation, may help policymakers and scientists better understand – and anticipate – California’s flood and drought risks and how they will be compounded by climate change. [Talkshop comment – unsupported assertion].

The group’s paper is published in Earth’s Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

Scientists discover rare six-planet system that moves in synchrony

Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) [image credit: NASA]

This system looks like a prize winner for resonance. For no obvious reason Phys.org calls it ‘strange’ synchrony. Planets orbiting near their star (orbit periods from 9 to 55 days in this example) are bound to be strongly influenced by it, in the same way moons close to planets can be.
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Scientists have discovered a rare sight in a nearby star system: Six planets orbiting their central star in a rhythmic beat, says Phys.org.

The planets move in an orbital waltz that repeats itself so precisely that it can be readily set to music.

A rare case of an “in sync” gravitational lockstep, the system could offer deep insight into planet formation and evolution.

Alberta Strikes Back at the Federal Government’s Energy Transition Plan

Image credit: mining.com

Alberta is the main player in Canada’s shale oil and gas industry. The outcome of this power struggle over climate ideology and its claimed consequences will be, let’s say, interesting.
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Alberta’s Premier has invoked a controversial piece of legislation to protect its citizens from the federal government’s Clean Electricity Regulation, reports OilPrice.com.

This is the first time the Sovereignty Act has been invoked in Alberta. The move involved Premier Smith tabling a resolution at the Alberta legislature that instructed provincial agencies such as the Alberta Electric System Operator to ignore the Clean Electricity Regulations when they came into effect, “to the extent legally permissible,” CBC reported.

The Sovereignty Act was enacted last year and its purpose was exactly the purpose it was used this week by the government: to protect the province from federal laws that the provincial government considers unconstitutional.

Antarctic ozone hole moving in mysterious ways, research suggests

Credit: earthhow.com

At least one expert was ‘not convinced’ by the study’s results. The theory that the ozone hole’s seasonal size was/is strongly related to human activity is left looking a bit threadbare, even if the study doesn’t exactly say that. But if the alleged cause has been mostly removed and the hole persists, to a significant extent at least, what other conclusion is there? ‘Rare events’ is one suggestion.
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The hole in the Antarctic ozone layer has been getting deeper in mid-spring over the last two decades, despite a global ban on chemicals that deplete Earth’s shield from deadly solar radiation, new research suggested Tuesday.

The ozone layer 11 to 40 kilometers (seven to 25 miles) above Earth’s surface filters out most of the sun’s ultraviolet radiation, which can cause skin cancer and cataracts, says Phys.org..

From the mid-1970s, chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)—once widely used in aerosols and refrigerators—were found to be reducing ozone levels, creating annual holes largely over the Antarctica region.

Why the Dutch election result spells trouble for Europe’s climate efforts

Dutch wind turbines

Climate mythology on the back foot. Some people at least are not keen on being frogmarched into costly and disruptive ‘net zero’ energy policies for more pain than gain, while having their reliability of supply reduced and farmers demonised.
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The far-right party that surged to victory in Wednesday’s Dutch election wants to ditch all efforts to stop climate change, says Politico.

About a quarter of Dutch voters backed Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV), whose platform includes exiting the Paris climate accord, dismantling domestic green legislation, and scrapping measures to reduce planet-warming emissions.

While right-wing politicians from Scandinavia to Italy have won big over the past year, this is the first time a party openly calling for an end to the green transition has won a national election in the European Union.

Economic conundrums for Germany as top court cancels climate funding plan

When might it occur to politicians, German or not, that endless subsidies to feed their own climate obsessions either come out of the same pot as the rest of their government’s income, or by pumping up national debt – or both? Looks like a road to nowhere, or nowhere good.
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As Germany scrambles to find €60 billion after the constitutional court ruled that transferring unused COVID-related debt to a climate fund was against the constitution, economists warned that spending cuts could cost the country economic growth in the coming years following a parliamentary hearing on Tuesday, says Euractiv.

Last week, Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled that transferring €60 billion of unused COVID-related debt to a climate fund was against the constitution.

With the amount removed from the fund, the government is now discussing how to close the funding gap, with Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP/Renew Europe) calling for spending cuts.

Climate confusion: Differing Net Zero definitions must ‘mesh’ say Met Office scientists

[image credit: latinoamericarenovable.com]

Another trip to cloud cuckoo land. How do they plan to accurately measure all the so-called emissions and get all parties to agree with the results anyway? Time to return to reality and stop wasting time and effort on non-existent supposed remedies.
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A new paper published in Nature has highlighted a fundamental mismatch in the way greenhouse gas emissions are measured which could mean that Net Zero could be met in one definition up to five years ahead of the other, says the Met Office .

The IPCC report shows that global temperature will stop increasing when we reach ‘net zero’ emissions of CO2. [Talkshop comment -*claims*, not shows].

To achieve this, human activity cannot put more CO2 into the atmosphere than it removes – we need to massively reduce our emissions, with some removal of CO2 to help areas which are really hard to decarbonise.

This sits behind the principle of Net Zero, which countries including the UK hope will be reached by 2050.

More cloud uncertainties: researching the effect of aerosol particles on clouds and the climate

Again it turns out that climate modellers don’t understand cloud effects too well. As this article bluntly puts it: ‘The interactions of atmospheric aerosols with solar radiation and clouds continue to be inadequately understood and are among the greatest uncertainties in the model description and forecasting of changes to the climate. One reason for this is the many unanswered questions about the hygroscopicity of aerosol particles.’ — Other reasons aren’t discussed here. Why do we keep reading about ‘state-of-the-art’ climate models when they clearly have a long way to go to merit such a description? Any forecasts they produce should be treated with great caution, to say the least.
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The extent to which aerosol particles affect the climate depends on how much water the particles can hold in the atmosphere, says Phys.org.

The capacity to hold water is referred to as hygroscopicity (K) and, in turn, depends on further factors—particularly the size and chemical composition of the particles, which can be extremely variable and complex.

Through extensive investigations, an international research team under the leadership of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC) and the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) was able to reduce the relationship between the chemical composition and the hygroscopicity of aerosol particles to a simple linear formula.

Planet racing toward ‘dead-end 3C temperature rise’, UN chief wails

It’s November again, so time to bring out the climate doomster’s crystal ball and claim once more to know how all global weather systems will behave decades into the future, unless…blah blah. The Climate Obsessives Powwow number 28 will lap up the melodrama (‘racing’?) even if others are less, or not at all, impressed. The notion of one global temperature is just a gimmick.
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Plans to stop emitting greenhouse gases in order to limit global warming are nowhere near enough to avert dangerous climate change, a United Nations body has warned.

In its annual Emissions Gap report, the UN Environment Programme says the climate action plans of governments will fail to limit the global temperature to under 1.5-2C this century, reports Sky News.

That limit was the goal of the landmark Paris Agreement, struck in 2015, when almost 200 countries agreed limiting global warming was necessary to avoid extremely destructive impacts.

Current pledges put the world on track for a 2.5-2.9C of global warming, UNEP said.

Its executive director Inger Andersen told Sky News: “None of these scenarios are acceptable to many, many people who live in low-lying areas, in coastal communities in fire hazard areas or in drought prone areas or flood prone areas.

“So we really do need to step up.”

At 3C of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.

“Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise,” said UN secretary general Antonio Guterres.

“The emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon.”

Full report here.

New research suggests plants might be able to absorb more CO2 from human activities than previously expected

Biology has been underestimated. Anything that relies on photosynthesis just takes whatever CO2 molecules it can get for its needs, regardless of current climate theories.
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New research published in Science Advances paints an uncharacteristically upbeat picture for the planet, says Phys.org.

This is because more realistic ecological modeling suggests the world’s plants may be able to take up more atmospheric CO2 from human activities than previously predicted.

Despite this headline finding, the environmental scientists behind the research are quick to underline that this should in no way be taken to mean the world’s governments can take their foot off the brake in their obligations to reduce carbon emissions as fast as possible. [Talkshop comment – smell the fear of losing funding].

Simply planting more trees and protecting existing vegetation is not a golden-bullet solution but the research does underline the multiple benefits to conserving such vegetation.

“Plants take up a substantial amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year, thereby slowing down the detrimental effects of climate change, but the extent to which they will continue this CO2 uptake into the future has been uncertain,” explains Dr. Jürgen Knauer, who headed the research team led by the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment at Western Sydney University.

“What we found is that a well-established climate model that is used to feed into global climate predictions made by the likes of the IPCC predicts stronger and sustained carbon uptake until the end of the 21st century when it accounts for the impact of some critical physiological processes that govern how plants conduct photosynthesis.

“We accounted for aspects like how efficiently carbon dioxide can move through the interior of the leaf, how plants adjust to changes in temperatures, and how plants most economically distribute nutrients in their canopy. These are three really important mechanisms that affect a plant’s ability to ‘fix’ carbon, yet they are commonly ignored in most global models” said Dr. Knauer.

Photosynthesis is the scientific term for the process in which plants convert—or “fix”—CO2 into the sugars they use for growth and metabolism. This carbon fixing serves as a natural climate change mitigator by reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere; it is this increased uptake of CO2 by vegetation that is the primary driver of an increasing land carbon sink reported over the last few decades.
. . .
Silvia Caldararu, Assistant Professor in Trinity’s School of Natural Sciences, was involved in the study. Contextualizing the findings and their relevance, she said, “Because the majority of terrestrial biosphere models used to assess the global carbon sink are located at the lower end of this complexity range, accounting only partially for these mechanisms or ignoring them altogether, it is likely that we are currently underestimating climate change effects on vegetation as well as its resilience to changes in climate.

“We often think about climate models as being all about physics, but biology plays a huge role and it is something that we really need to account for.”

Full article here.

Government has surrendered to green lobbyists – NZW

UK governments snookered themselves by passing the Climate Change Act. Now when the green lobby says ‘jump!’ all they can do is say ‘how high?’ They’ve given themselves no other option.
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Net Zero Watch says Claire Coutinho’s decision to award huge price increases to renewables operators is a wholesale surrender to green lobbyists.

— Generators awarded large and open-ended price increases to new offshore wind, with a minimum 66% increase.
— Government has offered further handouts contingent on delivery of a ‘low carbon supply chain’ and ‘social benefits’
— This can only increase costs to consumers, who should expect hefty increases in bills

Campaign group Net Zero Watch has ridiculed energy minister Claire Coutinho’s claim that handing a 66% price increase to windfarm operators is part of her plan for ‘bringing bills down for families’.

‘Time’s finally up’: Impending Iceland eruption is part of centuries-long volcanic pulse

Lava fields of the Reykjanes Peninsula [image credit: Vincent van Zeijst @ Wikipedia]

The headline obviously raises the question of the origin of such a pulse and of its suggested frequency. On the other hand a damp squib (from a spectator point of view) can’t be ruled out entirely at this stage, although some of the cracks already appearing on the surface do look quite large and other signs are ominous.
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Iceland’s potentially imminent eruption in the Reykjanes Peninsula is part of a 1,000-year cycle of volcanic activity that will likely cause eruptions for centuries, scientists say.

“Time’s finally up,” Edward W. Marshall, a researcher at the University of Iceland’s Nordic Volcanological Center, told LiveScience in an email. “We can get ready for another few hundred years of eruptions on the Reykjanes.”

Seismic activity began increasing in the south of the peninsula in October, with hundreds of earthquakes recorded there each day. On Nov. 10, authorities evacuated the town of Grindavík, with experts warning a volcanic eruption could take place in just days.

UK sued for counting wood burning with carbon capture as ‘negative emissions’

Biomass on the move [image credit: Drax]

Denounced by one opponent as ‘an accounting gimmick’ and ‘double counting’. The whole biomass from trees industry is once more outed as little more than a giant subsidy-grabbing confidence trick, from energy-intensive conversion of wood into pellets all the way to so-called carbon capture. Where are the real world benefits in this hugely expensive system?
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Environmental groups are taking the UK government to court on Monday (13 November) over plans to spend billions on Biomass with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), a technology aimed at removing CO2 from the atmosphere that is also being promoted by the European Union, says Euractiv.

Plaintiffs say BECCS technology relies on flawed accounting assumptions because it sees the carbon captured from wood burning as negative emissions when the process is at best neutral from a climate perspective.

“The government’s rationale for BECCS as providing negative emissions violates international carbon accounting protocols underpinning the Paris Agreement, to which the UK is a signatory,” said a statement from The Lifescape Project and the Partnership for Policy Integrity (PPI), two environmental groups that are the complainants in the case.

“Burning forest biomass and relying on BECCS for negative emissions will not contribute to the government’s legal obligation to achieve net zero by 2050,” they warned.

US Watchdog Has Grim Winter Warning: There May Be Blackouts

If it’s climate obsession versus reality in US power supplies, there can only be one winner. Strong opposition to new gas pipelines plus increasing reliance on intermittent renewables can only end badly for consumers of power.
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As much as two-thirds of the United States could experience blackouts in peak winter weather this and next year, the North American Reliability Corp has warned.

These warnings have become something of a routine for the regulatory agency lately, says OilPrice.com.

Earlier this year, NERC issued a blackout warning for some parts of the U.S. over the summer, citing extreme temperatures.

Recording the first daily measurements of Earth’s rotation shifts

Credit: NASA/EPIC, edit by Tdadamemd @ Wikipedia

When they say ‘shifts’ they’re measuring in milliseconds or even smaller units of time. Physics Today says ‘The new measurements are relevant to understanding the global water cycle and atmospheric circulation and may provide an important constraint on the effect of all those processes together.’
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Researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have succeeded in measuring the Earth’s rotation more exactly than ever before, reports Phys.org.

The ring laser at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell can now be used to capture data at a quality level unsurpassed anywhere in the world.

The measurements will be used to determine the Earth’s position in space, benefit climate research, and make climate models more reliable.

Care to take a quick step down to the basement and see how fast the Earth has been turning in the last few hours?

Germany To Bail Out Siemens’ Struggling Wind Turbine Division

Big Wind to governments: ‘We’re gonna need a bigger trough’. So much for cheap renewable energy, a stale myth if ever there was one, given the endless subsidies. How much is too much in climate obsession circles? Net zero targets have created a captive market for suppliers.
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The German government is preparing to provide financial support to Siemens Energy’s struggling wind turbine division amid a broader crisis in the wind and solar industries, reports OilPrice.com.

-> Siemens Energy, facing significant losses, is in talks for up to 15 billion euros in guarantees, with the German state covering 80% of the initial funding.
-> Siemens AG shares have plummeted over 70% since mid-June, with the company abandoning its 2023 profit outlook due to challenges in its wind turbine unit.
-> The UK government is set to offer higher subsidies for offshore wind projects, following a previous auction where developers backed out due to low pricing, indicating growing financial strains in the renewable energy sector.

Drought saps the Panama Canal, disrupting global trade – can El Niño already be a factor?

Ship passing through the new Agua Clara Locks, Panama Canal [image credit: Mariordo @ Wikipedia]

Having stated water levels in the canal have been a problem for a number of years, blaming the recently arrived El Niño seems a bit strange, and the last significant one ended in 2016. One expert is quoted saying it could be a source of drought, which implies some uncertainty. Using seawater to top up the canal isn’t an option for ecological reasons. Every vessel passage uses a lot of water (200 million litres per ship as an average), and capacity was doubled in 2016.
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For over a century, the Panama Canal has provided a convenient way for ships to move between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, helping to speed up international trade, says the Houston Herald.

But a drought has left the canal without enough water, which is used to raise and lower ships, forcing officials to slash the number of vessels they allow through.

That has created expensive headaches for shipping companies and raised difficult questions about water use in Panama. The passage of one ship is estimated to consume as much water as half a million Panamanians use in one day.

Oil Tanker Fire Sparked by Lithium-ion Battery Explosion, says NTSB

Not much new except maybe the guilty device in the official explanation of this damaging on-board ship fire last year: an exploding battery cell. CCTV evidence of the incident here (snapshots). For caption, see linked report.
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The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) on Thursday cited thermal runaway of a cell within a handheld radio’s lithium-ion battery as the cause of a fire on an oil tanker docked in Baton Rouge, La., reports MarineLink.

The Liberian-registered oil tanker S-Trust was docked at the Genesis Port Allen Terminal on November 13, 2022, when a fire on the bridge was sparked by one of the cells in a lithium-ion battery for an ultra-high-frequency handheld radio exploding, the NTSB’s investigation found.

The batteries and chargers for the handheld radios were located on the communications table on the bridge.

By the time the vessel’s crew extinguished the fire, the S-Trust’s navigation, communication and alarm systems were damaged beyond use.

Earth’s Ring Current System Just Sprang a Leak

Earth’s Ring Current System Just Sprang a Leak

Worth a look just for the pictures, plus interesting commentary re. what is or isn’t auroral activity.
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Melting ice, falling snow: Sea ice declines enhance snowfall over West Antarctica, say researchers

Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC]

There’s still a long way to go though: “We want to know how those factors are impacting the ice sheets.” Researchers conclude “it’s essential to enhance our models, particularly in representing sea ice dynamics.”
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As the world continues to warm, Antarctica is losing ice at an increasing pace, but the loss of sea ice may lead to more snowfall over the ice sheets, partially offsetting contributions to sea level rise, according to Penn State scientists. — Phys.org reporting.

The researchers analyzed the impacts of decreased sea ice in the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica and found the ice-free ocean surface leads to more moisture in the atmosphere and heavier snowfalls on the ice sheet, the team reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

While the additional snowfall is not enough to offset the impacts of melting ice, including it in climate models may improve predictions of things like sea level rise, said Luke Trusel, assistant professor of geography at Penn State and co-author of the study.