Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC]
There’s still a long way to go though: “We want to know how those factors are impacting the ice sheets.” Researchers conclude “it’s essential to enhance our models, particularly in representing sea ice dynamics.”
– – –
As the world continues to warm, Antarctica is losing ice at an increasing pace, but the loss of sea ice may lead to more snowfall over the ice sheets, partially offsetting contributions to sea level rise, according to Penn State scientists. — Phys.org reporting.
The researchers analyzed the impacts of decreased sea ice in the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica and found the ice-free ocean surface leads to more moisture in the atmosphere and heavier snowfalls on the ice sheet, the team reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
While the additional snowfall is not enough to offset the impacts of melting ice, including it in climate models may improve predictions of things like sea level rise, said Luke Trusel, assistant professor of geography at Penn State and co-author of the study.
The Antarctic ice sheet plays a significant role in global sea level dynamics. As one of the world’s largest reservoirs of freshwater, any change in its volume directly impacts sea levels.
Trusel noted that while popular attention is often on visible processes like chunks of ice breaking away, or calving, and floating away as icebergs, more subtle interactions—like snowfall on the ice sheet—can be equally significant.
“For a place like Antarctica, which is just massive, the amount of snow falling on top of the ice sheet is as important or even more important than other processes like meltwater or ice breaking off,” Trusel said. “We’re tracking both snowfall and melt to understand both ends of the equation—what takes from sea level and what gets returned to the ocean. We want to know how those factors are impacting the ice sheets.”
The primary source of snowfall in Antarctica is evaporation from the surrounding oceans, with sea ice playing a pivotal role in modulating this process, according to researchers.
. . .
The team’s findings emphasize the need for refining current climate models to enhance their predictive accuracy, the scientists said.
“If we aim to project future sea level changes with precision, it’s essential to enhance our models, particularly in representing sea ice dynamics,” Trusel said.
Full article here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
An excellent proxy for ice cap mass is length of day variation.
As land ice on the caps melts, the water redistributes throughout the oceans, thus altering the polar moment of inertia of the planet, analogous to a ballerina extending and retracting her arms to speed up and slow down.
So, as a result of the conservation of angular momentum, the length of day – very easily observed – will decrease as the icecaps caps gain or lose mass and water is redistributed towards or away from the poles.
I wonder if this has anything to do with the negative leap second that is causing considerable head-scratching at the moment, due to such a thing would result in the computers having to cope with the same time – twice.
Fair comment, Catweazle. It’s not quite my field of expertise, but I was coached by my Physics Teecher that if you couldn’t solve a problem by traditional means & Formulae ( & F=ma is actually wrong kinda thing), then the best alternative to have a Stab at an answer is to attempt to calculate / evaluate states by working on ENERGY balances / accounting. Conservation of Momentum and so on . So where to start (I leave that to others ) ?
Wish the Useful Idiots would have done that simple calcs for Battery powered vehicles etc.( & Hydrogen)
This was written:
The researchers analyzed the impacts of decreased sea ice in the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica and found the ice-free ocean surface leads to more moisture in the atmosphere and heavier snowfalls on the ice sheet, the team reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They could have figured that out by just studying ice core records that show the ice accumulations are more than adequate to build and maintain sequestered ice when the ocean is ice-free, when evaporation is possible. When the oceans is ice covered, evaporation is not possible and there is not enough snowfall to maintain sequestered ice and the sequestered ice on land depletes.
This was written:
While the additional snowfall is not enough to offset the impacts of melting ice.
Then there could not be ice on land, it only snows enough in warmer times.
For Catweazle: Good point! Length of day has decreased since the Atomic Clock was put into service in 1972, less leap seconds have been added each decade and none since 2016. This does mean the sea level is lower than in 1972, more ice is on land near the spin axis and less water is in the oceans, sea level is lower than fifty years ago.
Ice caps are not losing ice, sea level is not rising, and the canary in the coal mine is leap seconds, when polar ice is lost and sea level rises, that will start adding more and more leap seconds. If more leap seconds are not needed, we are safe from lost polar ice and rising sea levels.
This was written:
The primary source of snowfall in Antarctica is evaporation from the surrounding oceans, with sea ice playing a pivotal role in modulating this process, according to researchers.
. . .
The team’s findings emphasize the need for refining current climate models to enhance their predictive accuracy, the scientists said.
“If we aim to project future sea level changes with precision, it’s essential to enhance our models, particularly in representing sea ice dynamics,” Trusel said.
I have been promoting that for more than a decade, the thermostat setting is the temperature sea ice freezes and thaws, the controls for the evaporation and snowfall, the polar ice machines, is the sea ice. It snows more in warmest times and more ice causes colder, it snows less in coldest times and depleting ice causes warmer. This is clear in ice core records.
The sun heats my house and my Air Conditioner thermostat turns on the cooling when the thermostat setting is exceeded and the AC runs until temperature is below the thermostat setting.
The sun heats the oceans and warm tropical currents remove sea ice and the polar ice machine, the Climate Air Conditioner, turns on and runs until enough ice is pushed into the polar oceans to form sea ice and turn the ice machines off, turn the AC off. This causes alternating warm and cold periods. My home AC causes alternating warmer and colder periods.
Climate warming from a trace gas, CO2, with any additional feedback, is much like having house guests, with extra feedback, extra children opening outside doors, for example, the house warms faster, the AC turns on sooner and runs longer but when the AC system is adequate, the temperature does not exceed reasonable limits. Ice core records, for the Arctic and Antarctic, do show that the climate systems operate much like home Air Conditioning systems. When the solar energy in the oceans remove polar sea ice it snows enough to restore it.
Did they take into account the under water volcanoes in that region, see
https://joannenova.com/2018/04/panic-time-a-tiny-0-01-of-antarctica-resting-on-volcanoes-melts-five-times-faster-than-nothing/
If they didn’t then they are stupider than I thought.
Sorry corrected url. I forgot the .au
https://joannenova.com.au/2018/04/panic-time-a-tiny-0-01-of-antarctica-resting-on-volcanoes-melts-five-times-faster-than-nothing/
For Ivan:
If under water volcanoes add energy to the polar oceans, that will thaw sea ice sooner and cause evaporation and snowfall that will build sequestered ice that will provide self-correcting cooling. The climate has a thermostat setting, the temperature that sea ice thaws, when it is exceeded, it snows more until more ice spreads and causes colder. The climate responds immediately to changes in forcing, changes in warming, Then the self correcting cooling system turns on and runs as long as necessary to lower the temperature below the thermostat setting, the temperature sea ice forms.
A post from last year…
Based on the posting, it appears the “so called” expert climate scientists are finally figuring some of this out, Polar Sequestered Ice is Only Replenished in Warmest Times when Polar Oceans are Thawed.
“In spite of the puzzling longer-term trends and the large year-to-year variations in Antarctic sea ice, the seasonal cycle is really consistent, always showing this fast retreat relative to slow growth,”
Warm salt water currents from the tropics that thaws sea ice can be many degrees warmer than the temperature that sea ice thaws.
Cold water currents that forms sea ice can only be a few degrees colder than the temperature that sea ice forms.
Therefore, sea ice can be removed much faster than sea ice can be formed.
I can thaw ice cubes much faster in warm water than I can freeze ice cubes in the coldest freezer, cooled by cold salt water.
OK Popes! But you are trying to convince people who think that melting sea ice raises the sea level.
(There is a long history of raising sea levels but this was in the media – does that make it likely?)
1981: Scientists (including Steven Schneider) warn global warming would see Buckingham Palace 7 feet underwater (Thames TV)
Or these?
1923 Montana Glacier could disappear by 1948
Says Professor Waterman. North-western University
1952 Montana’s Glacier Park may need new name
The giant glaciers are melting away and could be gone in 50 years
2009 No more Glaciers in Montana by 2020
2021 All of the glaciers in Glacier National Park are expected to be gone by 2030 — IF at first you don’t succeed….
The paper claims a ‘causal discovery’… 🙄
Key Points
— Observations and reanalyzes reveal decreased sea ice leads to increased precipitation over the West Antarctic ice sheet
— Causal discovery links low sea ice to enhanced water vapor and precipitation-bearing clouds over the ice sheet
— Past and future changes in sea ice hold implications for ice sheet surface mass balance
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL104436
See this section:
4.2 Correlations Between Amundsen Sector Sea Ice and Atmospheric Variables
. . .
Overall, this analysis reveals that periods of anomalously low sea ice are characterized by an anomalously wetter atmosphere and enhanced snowfall over much of the WAIS.
And this one: 4.3 Causal Relationships
Finally:
5 Discussion and Conclusions
. . .
The relationships and interactions found here between sea ice, the atmosphere, and SMB are similar to findings from the Arctic.
[SMB = surface mass balance]
“As the world continues to warm”.
But until the last few months, it wasn’t warming. Hadn’t warmed for some years according to satellite data. So anything that was happening wasn’t caused by warming.
catweazle666 says: November 9, 2023 at 8:36 pm
“An excellent proxy for ice cap mass is length of day variation”
LOD changes trend with full moon or new moon (a recent abrupt change was quite large). It happens within 24 hours, so its unlikely to be from ice load and moment of inertia. Planetary positions give an extra kick. It is gyro effect, and occasionally it is very large.
Last year…
The MSN link has gone, but see here:
AUGUST 3, 2022
Earth is spinning faster than usual, but why? What experts say after shortest day ever
But why is the Earth spinning faster? Scientists are not completely certain, but they have a few competing explanations:
https://phys.org/news/2022-08-earth-faster-usual-experts-shortest.html
‘not completely certain’ – pick one from the list or add your own? 😎
This one perhaps?
Changes to the climate or climate systems, such as melting and freezing of glaciers or winds, whose shifting weight pulls on the Earth, The New York Post reported.
Why is the planet’s rotation rate a mystery? The force that causes all the orbs in the solar system to rotate on their axis is the same force that causes them to orbit the sun, and the same that cause the sun to rotate as well as orbit its companion(s). Anthony Peratt demonstrated this effect and Pari Spolter described the relationships in her book, The Gravitational Force of the Sun.
The astute reader will observe that this force is the charge flow along the galactic arm, varying with the interaction of the masses involved. What transpires at the surface is not causative, but resultant, like tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, dust devils, and volcanic action etc.
Ever watched an object spin while circling the toilet drain? Bit of a challenge as it doesn’t last long. But Peratt has recorded it in the lab.
“so its unlikely to be from ice load and moment of inertia”
As it is evident that the polar moment of inertia will be changed by redistribution of the mass of water/ice caused by increasing or decreasing the mass of ice in the icecaps close to the rotational axis being redistributed away from the axis, it is incontrovertible that the rate of rotation will consequently be altered due to the conservation of momentum, that is basic physics.
I am sure that there many other factors that can cause the LoD to alter too, of course.
Graeme No 3 says:
OK Popes! But you are trying to convince people who think that melting sea ice raises the sea level.
Pope NEVER EVER said or wrote that melting sea ice raises sea level.
When sea ice is present, polar oceans do not evaporate to produce snowfall over sequestered ice on land and the sequestered ice flows and thaws and pushes from land into the oceans, that does raise sea level.
When the sea ice thaws, evaporation and snowfall over sequestered ice on land does lower oceans and rebuild sequestered land ice.
Ice core records are very clear, land ice starts rebuilding while climate is still warming and sea level rising, then at the warmest time the sea level stops rising and starts dropping as the rebuilt ice sheets grow and spread.
Solar Energy stored in tropical oceans is carried to polar regions to power the polar ice machines. The temperature that sea ice thaws and freezes is the thermostat setting. When more ice on land is needed, the sea ice is removed, and the ice machines are turned on. When sufficient ice is being pushed into the turbulent salt water, the thawing ice chills the currents to below freezing and the sea ice forms and turns the ice machines off. When the sequestered ice is depleted, it is not pushed into the currents and the tropical currents are not chilled, the sea ice is removed and the cycle repeats. This causes the alternating warm and cold cycles found in polar climate ice core records.
“its unlikely to be from ice load and moment of inertia.”
Ice load cannot change in 24 hours or less. The changes as per oldbrew’s post are very small and cyclic. However over centuries there can be more substantial change.
Spoiler: once there was a large change; of about nine hours. And winter became summer, and the seasons switched place after that. Plus widespread famines.
“Ice load cannot change in 24 hours or less.”
Please point out where I inferred it could.
catweazle666, my fault, being economical with words (as usual, sorry).
“Ice load cannot change LOD in 24 hours or less.”
saighdear above pointed to a query/problem: how is ‘conservation of angular momentum’ accounted for?. There is rotation about the rotational axis and concurrently rotation about an axis perpendicular to the ecliptic plane. The latter -precession- is slow, but it can be very fast at times.
My source says obliquity decreased abruptly at ~3550bce. High latitudes cooled and tropics desiccated. Ice load in polar regions therefore increased at the expense of equatorial waters. That must have reduced Iz appreciably and shortened LOD (for isostacy to adjust).
https://phys.org/news/2022-08-earth-faster-usual-experts-shortest.html
June 29th 2022, new moon and an interesting planetary orientation, all to one side from earth.
New tech arriving…
NOVEMBER 11, 2023
Recording the first daily measurements of Earth’s rotation shifts
by Technical University Munich
Researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have succeeded in measuring the Earth’s rotation more exactly than ever before. The ring laser at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell can now be used to capture data at a quality level unsurpassed anywhere in the world. The measurements will be used to determine the Earth’s position in space, benefit climate research, and make climate models more reliable.
. . .
The device can use this new corrective algorithm to measure the Earth’s rotation precisely down to 9 decimal places, corresponding to a fraction of a millisecond per day.
. . .
Overall, the observed up and down fluctuations reached values of as much as 6 milliseconds over approximately two weeks.
The improvements in the laser have now made significantly shorter measurement periods possible as well. The newly developed corrective programs let the team capture current data every three hours.
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-daily-earth-rotation-shifts.html