The Oil Demand Outlook COP28 Leaders Would Hate

The 28th UN-sponsored attempt to reduce global ’emissions’, in line with its pet climate theories, stares its own failure in the face as emissions keep going up. The renewables industry is running fast to stand still in terms of making a global dent in oil usage, for example. Imposition of ‘net zero’ policies may impact some countries, but oil marches on as demand from the many aspiring – but less developed than the ‘net zero club’ – countries boosts business.
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->> The International Energy Agency said in its recent oil report that oil consumption is close to peaking, thanks to transition efforts and energy efficiency gains.
->> Goehring and Rozencwajg: In 12 of the past 14 years, the IEA has underestimated oil demand by an average annual of 820,000 barrels per day.
->> Goehring and Rozencwajg: “If the IEA’s error were a country, it would be the world’s 21st largest oil consumer”.

This week, a report from a climate organization warned that emissions from the combustion of hydrocarbons are set for a record this year, says OilPrice.com.

This is despite the massive buildout of wind and solar capacity, hundreds of billions of investments in alternatives of hydrocarbons, and pledges for a lot more.

There appears to be a gap between stated goals and ambitions and reality. It might be more difficult to see looking at the oil futures market, but it is there. And it may be getting deeper.

Like emissions, oil demand rose this year. Yet the International Energy Agency said it is close to peaking, thanks to transition efforts and energy efficiency gains.

Oil producers slammed the IEA for manipulating data. The investment world was divided. And some recalled the Jevons Paradox as proof that the hopes being pinned on energy efficiency, especially as it related to oil demand, were empty ones.

In their latest quarterly market commentary, contrarian natural resource investment managers Goehring and Rozencwajg did just that: they reminded everyone watching COP28 and listening to all the talk about efficiency and demand for hydrocarbons that gains in the former never lead to a decline in the latter.

“It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.” This is what William Stanley Jevons, a British economist and logician, wrote in the 19th century. He was talking about coal. Close to 200 years later, the paradox still stands.
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The IEA said in its latest World Energy Outlook that tripling generation capacity from wind and solar and other low-carbon sources must go hand in hand with an annual rate of energy efficiency improvements of 4%.

What it did not say is that even if this annual rate of efficiency gains is achieved, it will only lead to more energy demand, which would translate into more oil and gas demand. This is because the new low-carbon sources of energy that transition advocates favor cannot compete with hydrocarbons on supply reliability, at least not yet. [Talkshop comment – not ever].

Full article here.