Aircraft observations show northern tropical Africa is not the large source of CO2 that satellite data ‘suggested’

Posted: January 11, 2024 by oldbrew in atmosphere, Carbon cycle, data, Emissions, research, satellites
Tags: ,


This must put a dent in the credibility of at least some supposedly climate-related satellite data. On the positive side, a significant chunk of the alleged global carbon dioxide problem disappears, as the carbon cycle of a large region turns out to be self-balancing. The CO2 struck off, so to speak, is ‘equivalent to about 10% of annual emissions from the burning of fossil fuels’.
– – –
The forests and grasslands of northern tropical Africa take in about as much carbon dioxide in the wet season as they release in the dry season, according to a new study based on observations from aircraft.

The findings contradict earlier research that relied on satellite data and found that these ecosystems may be adding significantly more carbon to the atmosphere than they absorb over the course of a year, says Phys.org.

The research, published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, highlights the difficulty of measuring carbon dioxide from space and the need for more frequent and robust observations from both the air and ground.

The research was led by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR).

“These findings help us better understand how carbon is moving through our complex Earth system, which is critical to accurately projecting the impacts of society’s continued emissions of greenhouse gases,” said NSF NCAR scientist Benjamin Gaubert, who led the study. “It’s also great news that northern tropical Africa is not the large source of carbon that satellite observations suggested.”

The NSF NCAR research team was interested in verifying whether the fluxes implied by satellite-based observations of carbon dioxide over northern tropical Africa in previous research were correct.

The earlier work using satellite data over land suggested that the ecosystems of the region were a significant net source of carbon dioxide, potentially releasing more than a billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere annually. That amount is equivalent to about 10% of annual emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

The possibility that these ecosystems were such a large carbon source was a surprise and challenged the scientific community’s existing understanding of Earth’s carbon cycle. The new study sought to determine whether the existing understanding of the carbon cycle was flawed or whether the estimates based on satellite observations were skewed.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. saighdear says:

    Huh, talk about new Horizons then, eh? just more of some rubbish software somewhere …. and then rubbish in, …..out

  2. oldbrew says:

    The research, published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, highlights the difficulty of measuring carbon dioxide from space

    It’s only 0.04% of the atmosphere after all 🙂

  3. Philip Mulholland says:

    Ground truthing? Dang, what a pain that is.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Re. ‘impacts of greenhouse gases’…

    New Study Finds No Evidence Of A CO2-Driven Warming Signal In 60 Years Of IR Flux Data

    https://notrickszone.com/2024/01/11/new-study-finds-no-evidence-of-a-co2-driven-warming-signal-in-60-years-of-ir-flux-data/

    Miskolczi (2023): one has to observe that the complexity of the climate system is not a free ticket for violating the first principles of physics.
    . . .
    The common mistake of the climatologists is to assume that satellite information is always correct, no matter what. This is not true; satellite information cannot ever be more accurate than the ground truth.

    Click to access Miskolczi-2023-Greenhouse-Gas-Theory.pdf

  5. oldbrew says:

    The carbon cycle once again exceeds expectations…

    JANUARY 12, 2024
    Study finds carbon released during macroalgal growth has significant sequestration potential

    The growth of macroalgae can produce significant amounts of particulate organic carbon (POC), but it is unclear how these POC are metabolized and how they affect carbon sequestration.
    . . .
    Finally, 36.3% of the POC released by macroalgae growth could perform long-term carbon sequestration. This is a neglected carbon sink.

    This study provides novel insights into the significant carbon sequestration potential of POC released by growing macroalgae, and this fraction of carbon should be taken into account in the overall carbon sequestration effect contributed by macroalgae.

    https://phys.org/news/2024-01-carbon-macroalgal-growth-significant-sequestration.html

    Potential? It’s already happening.

  6. P.A.Semi says:

    Maybe that is why it’s so hard to find some usable CO2 data?
    They either provide it in too detailed “police” resolution and only on registration, or elsewhere I found but too coarse and useless…

    The only image with monthly average I found is probably from November 2014 (supposedly published in Nature), so I don’t know, if it is regular or an anomaly:

    Europeans and Americans would start to question, why are they ostracized from reasonable energy use, if the main sources of CO2 are completely elsewhere…

    πα½

  7. P.A.Semi says:

    And that nullschool co2 overlay – is it just a toy for playing, or can the data be downloaded and processed from there ?
    (for example to make monthly averages, analyze trends, etc…)
    πα½

  8. P.A.Semi says:

    Analyzing, what Nullschool downloads, it points, where they take the CO2 data from:

    https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/GMAO_products/

    πα½

  9. catweazle666 says:

    I haven’t delved much beyond playing with it actually, PAS.
    What I find fascinating is the large differences in concentration between locations for “a well-mixed gas”, especially as it doesn’t seem to be too closely related to areas of – say – heavy industry, and the way it changes with the seasons.
    I’d be interested also to know how it acquires its information, how accurate it is.

  10. P.A.Semi says:

    So after inspecting it, it is a Model Analysis, not an Observation…
    Then there is a question, how well it resembles Reality? But at least it is smoother…

    While checking, if some time of day would represent a whole day (to spare download size and get 1 file daily?), I found there is huge daily variation over summer tropics (on January 1st it is South Africa, South America and south of China) – on one selected point it ranges between 392ppm and 414ppm, which is 22ppm difference during the day…

    I didn’t expect the daily “breathing” of rainforests to be so huge…

    πα½

  11. catweazle666 says:

    Interesting…
    It’s certainly fun to play with, I wonder whose model it is…
    As to the rainforests, it seems to understand photosynthesis, at any rate.

  12. P.A.Semi says:

    The download points to portal.nccs.nasa.gov
    I downloaded whole year 2023 (16Gb data, 4 files daily, 44Mb daily), and while downloading year 2022, they blocked me (at end of October). So I used proxy, they blocked it soon too, so I used another proxy, and they blocked it too… (even if I use large waits between individual files to be as gentle as I can)

    Not sure if it is a “political” problem, or a problem with size of download being too large for NASA, or some temporary problem ?
    Then why do they publish the GMAO model analysis, if one cannot download even one tiny portion from it in longer time run?! (there are multiple gigabytes daily data, I wanted just 4×11 Mb daily…)

    So again – the only other CO2 data I found are 56 Mb daily with insanely large resolution and available only on registration…
    NullSchool has a nice toy for playing, but you cannot analyze the data much… (trends, averages, etc…)

    With all the hype about CO2, but we must not access and investigate the data…?! It seems “someone” has “something” to hide there…!

    πα½

  13. P.A.Semi says:

    Scheduling huge downloads at American night-time and weekend (outside their peak hours) is better…

    A general advice on using *.nc4 (netCDF) files used in climatology:
    Somewhere I found program h5dump.exe from HDF5 package, and using that:
    h5dump -H file.nc4 > file.txt
    to get description of what is available in nc4 file
    h5dump -d /CO2SC -b LE -o file.bin file.nc4
    to export dataset CO2SC from nc4 file into binary floating-point array, usually bottom-to-top 4-byte floats, which I can import into other tools and process…

    πα½

  14. P.A.Semi says:

    The image from Nature I posted above is atypical or wrong…

    A November 2023 average CO2 surface concentration from GMAO, using colors from NullSchool (brown low, lighter higher) :

    Similar from August 2023

    Showing, where CO2 is mostly produced and where it is consumed…
    The high concentration in mainland Russia is because there it flows from Europe and Moscow hotspot…

    Biggest producers are northern Italy, US NorthWestEast coast and southern China, then Britain, Moscow, California and Russian far east…

    Consumed by the green nature mostly in tropics, in summer also in Eurasia and North America…

    πα½

  15. P.A.Semi says:

    (sorry for a typo – I meant “US NorthEast coast” instead of NorthWest being second after Italy…)
    (sorry for too much posts here…)

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