World’s first year-long breach of ‘key’ 1.5C warming limit alarms the BBC

Posted: February 8, 2024 by oldbrew in alarmism, atmosphere, climate, Emissions, Temperature
Tags: , ,

Alarmists mark an artificial deadline, still pretending government-driven limits can be put on long-term climate variations and attempting to reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere, which hasn’t happened anyway. Cue the usual well-worn phrases about tackling climate change, emissions etc.
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For the first time, global warming has exceeded 1.5C across an entire year, according to the EU’s climate service.

World leaders promised in 2015 to try to limit the long-term temperature rise to 1.5C, which is seen as crucial to help avoid the most damaging impacts, says BBC News.

This first year-long breach doesn’t break that landmark “Paris agreement”, but it does bring the world closer to doing so in the long-term.

Urgent action to cut carbon emissions can still slow warming, scientists say. [Talkshop comment – some say, others don’t].

“To go over [1.5C of warming] on an annual average is significant,” says Prof Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society.

“It’s another step in the wrong direction. But we know what we’ve got to do.”

Limiting long-term warming to 1.5C above “pre-industrial” levels – before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels – has become a key symbol of international efforts to tackle climate change.

A landmark UN report in 2018 said that the risks from climate change – such as intense heatwaves, rising sea-levels and loss of wildlife – were much higher at 2C of warming than at 1.5C.

But temperatures have kept rising at a concerning pace, data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service from the past year shows, illustrated in the graph below [see link]. The period from February 2023 to January 2024 reached 1.52C of warming.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. saighdear says:

    Hach mann! No’ again, getting triggered all the time – Hope the spring’ll no’ break or the barrel overheat!
    Now with all those Storm initiated shutdowns over the winter , so far, and since the “covid shut-down”, where is all the hype about reduction in CO2 output having any effect….. or does the “Ukraine conflict” negate all that …. Plus the Earthquake damages and forest fires  See this http://www.demolitionnews.com/2024/02/01/embodied-carbon-vice-tightens/
    Warmongering US & EU + UK can NOT have it both ways … Oh and I forgot about another current one ( how could I?)

  2. oldbrew says:

    Controversial climate change study claims we’ll breach 2 C before 2030

    Published 3 days ago

    If the new study is correct, global warming is at least a decade further ahead than we thought. But other scientists say it is filled with errors and inconsistencies.

    https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/weve-already-blown-past-critical-15-c-climate-threshold-sea-sponge-study-claims-should-we-believe-it

    ‘We’ won’t breach anything. The Earth’s climates aren’t owned by humans.

  3. oldbrew says:

    A huge issue in climate science is where to set the pre-industrial baseline, before fossil fuel burning kickstarted warming. Until the 20th century, ocean temperatures records were a sporadic and non-standardized patchwork of millions of observations collected by sailors to chart courses through seas.

    . . .

    To weed out erroneous past recordings, climate scientists have previously turned to natural records of temperature stored in ocean animals such as coral, in ice and sediment cores or inside tree grains. However, scientists still have no consensus on the amount of post-industrial warming.

    [from link in previous comment]

    This suggests a belief that the Little Ice Age would still be going on, or recovery from it would be a lot slower, without modern industries.

  4. Phoenix44 says:

    I’d put a fair bit of money on the end of this El Nino knocking more than 0.2 degrees off current temperatures. UAH satellite data showed January 2023 anomaly at zero and January 2024 at 0.85 degrees. I would guess that June might be 0.5 and October possibly 0.3. But of course the BBC doesn’t use UAH as that doesn’t give the right story.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Joe Bastardi – Worst of winter likely yet to come for much of U.S. and Europe

    February 5th, 2024

    Reason 1) SOI crash for Feb.

    https://www.cfact.org/2024/02/05/worst-of-winter-likely-yet-to-come-for-much-of-u-s-and-europe/

    Update – BOM ENSO Outlook (6 Feb. 2024 issue) says:

    El Niño ocean warmth past its peak as Indian Ocean Dipole returns to neutral

    El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Model forecasts and observations indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have peaked and are now declining.

  6. catweazle666 says:

    “The period from February 2023 to January 2024 reached 1.52C of warming.”

    I would be fascinated to know how they know the average temperature of the whole Earth from pole to pole to a precision of two places of decimals 150 years ago!

  7. AC Osborn says:

    Why would anyone want to return to little ice age conditions?

    I would like to ask them if they even know what those conditions were like.

    The other point is does the Copernicus ERA5/C3S/ECMWF generated temperature chart look anything like the old charts for the pre 2000 years?

  8. oldbrew says:

    U.S.A. Temperature Trends, 1979-2023: Models vs. Observations

    February 2nd, 2024 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/02/u-s-a-temperature-trends-1979-2023-models-vs-observations/

  9. oldbrew says:

    Getting nervous about net zero disillusion…

    Kuenssberg: Are the politics of climate change going out of fashion?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68261445

  10. oldbrew says:

    Net zero policies doomed to fail…

    World risks missing climate targets because of surging Asian gas demand

    Global market for LNG to grow until at least 2040 despite Western efforts to hit net zero

    14 February 2024

    Surging Asian demand for gas means the world will miss its climate targets despite Western countries spending billions on the shift to net zero, data in a report from Shell suggests.

    Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is likely to continue to grow until at least 2040, according to the latest projections from the oil company.

    . . .

    Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022. By 2040 it is expected to rise to up to 685 million tonnes – a 70pc increase, said Shell.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/14/world-miss-climate-targets-surging-asian-gas-demand-shell/

    What chance have renewables got of even keeping pace with such a gas increase, even if some portion of it replaces coal use?

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