
Promoters of a current ‘climate crisis’ often call modern warming and/or events within it, ‘unprecedented’. However, compared to events like this: “A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life” [explains Prof.], not much is presently going on. Climate variability can happen in different ways, and repeat over long timescales.
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In recent geological history, the so-called Quaternary period, there have been repeated ice ages and warm periods, says Science Daily.
Researchers are able to determine past climate variability from the composition of climate records. In the case of the last glacial period 100,000 years ago, ice cores from Greenland in particular provide researchers with detailed data.
For example, Greenland ice cores show that there were repeated rapid increases in temperature.
“We are talking about increases of 5 to 10 degrees within 30 to 40 years on average in the case of Europe. A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life,” explains Prof. Dominik Fleitmann, Professor of Quaternary Geology at the University of Basel.
He calls the phenomena “climate hiccups.”
These Dansgaard-Oeschger events are well documented for the last glacial period, but the climate records from Greenland only cover the last 120,000 years.
It was therefore previously unknown whether these Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period 135,000 to 190,000 years ago.
Frederick Held, a PhD candidate in Fleitmann’s research group, was able to show that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period using isotopic measurements on stalagmites.
He is the lead author of the study which was published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.
The North Atlantic as the source of change
The stalagmites examined originate from the Sofular Cave in Turkey, which is located in a region that is very sensitive to climate change.
The researchers therefore refer to it as a key region, as it is influenced by the winds of the North Atlantic and the Black Sea is just a few kilometers away.
“We used the isotopic composition in the stalagmites to determine the moisture sources from which they are formed — the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic,” explains Frederick Held.
For the first time, the evaluations carried out on the stalagmites from the Sofular Cave have proven that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period.
“It was previously unknown whether these relatively brief temperature events actually happened in earlier glacial periods,” states Held.
However, they occurred less frequently in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one: “The temperature peaks are twice as far apart from one another, meaning there were longer cold phases between them.”
These temperature fluctuations originate in the North Atlantic, as the circulation of the ocean is a global conveyor belt for heat and can sometimes be stronger and sometimes weaker.
“For example, the circulation affects the exchange of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean, which, in turn, impacts the balance of heat in the Northern Hemisphere and air flows and rainfall,” explains Held.
He states that weakened circulation also reduces the quantity of CO2 which the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere.
These ocean currents were different in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one, which explains the different intervals between the Dansgaard-Oeschger events.
This shows that not all glacial periods are the same and not all warm periods are the same.
. . .
The geologist also hopes to clarify any outstanding questions by means of additional analyses. “For example, we do not yet know whether the increases in temperature were periodic or stochastic, in other words random.”
Full article here.
Image: Greenland ice core [credit: K. Makinson @ Wikipedia]






“not all glacial periods are the same and not all warm periods are the same”
Not news.
A review of dating problems in ice core tech:
jb – The article does start by mentioning Greenland ice cores, but the actual research was in Turkey using cave stalagmites.
But Science Daily has also output this:
Ice cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past
Date: February 8, 2024
Source: University of Cambridge
Summary: Researchers have uncovered the first direct evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shrunk suddenly and dramatically at the end of the Last Ice Age, around eight thousand years ago. The evidence, contained within an ice core, shows that in one location the ice sheet thinned by 450 meters — that’s more than the height of the Empire State Building — in just under 200 years.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/02/240208122026.htm
AFAIK graphs usually show ice ages ending ‘suddenly and dramatically’? Again this is the Antarctic, but it shows the idea although ‘suddenly’ is relative to 100 kyr in this case…
How is the green (local sun) trace measured?
[reply] good question
The choices aren’t periodic or random. Complex systems are not “random” but neither are they cyclical. Climate is a very complex system whose components we probably haven’t fully identified yet, let alone quantified
Thanks for your graph OB, but what was the H2O inclusion with this (humidity)?
Kind regards, Ray Dart (AKA suricat).
Re. humidity: Antarctica is ‘hyper arid’.
The relative humidity of air at the South Pole is often as low as 0.03%, and the continent is a polar desert.
https://discoveringantarctica.org.uk/oceans-atmosphere-landscape/atmosphere-weather-and-climate/key-factors-behind-antarcticas-climate/
Huh, does that all add up ? Arid, Snowfall having to dig one’s Mobile buildings up? Moving them ? OH I see ….. That’s a DIFFERENT part of the Continent, ahah, I get the message. Like Glowing Bull warming … standing behind the Hot Jet, etc. Do Black Skinned cattle get hot or cold in winter, how about Summer time, compared with white-skinned cattle despite their hair colouration. Which releases more heat, a Black or White Painted, or Chromed radiator in a house.
oldbrew says: February 23, 2024 at 10:11 am
Re. humidity: Antarctica is ‘hyper arid’.
I apologize in advance to both ‘you’ and your ‘link’ OB, but ‘both’ offer only ‘obfuscation’.
‘Ice’ at both the North and South poles ‘sublimates’ into ‘water vapor’ during their ‘winter seasons’ generating a ‘hyper arid’ climate, but the ‘differing altitudes’ and ‘land mass’ couldn’t be more apparent.
The land mass at the ‘South Pole’ (Antarctica) supports year round ‘ice’ because of its ‘land mass altitude’ above ‘sea level’, but at the ‘North Pole’ (Arctic) all ice is at ~sea level ‘without’ any ‘land mass’ to support ‘ice’ causing ‘seasonality’ for ‘arid’ conditions. Thus, the two regions are ‘incomparable’.
Hope this helps.
Kind regards, Ray Dart (AKA suricat).
@ Ray D – I thought you were referring to the Antarctic ice core graph here – February 21, 2024 at 4:52 pm.
oldbrew says: February 26, 2024 at 9:19 am
@ Ray D – I thought you were referring to the Antarctic ice core graph here – February 21, 2024 at 4:52 pm.
Er, yes. However I was thinking about the (pertinent?) missing data.
Firstly, the activity of the ‘B.D.C.’ (Brewer Dobson Circulation) which is a ‘slow’ circulation in evidence within the low Stratosphere and is accelerated where/when increases in ‘greenhouse gasses’ are present. I would expect any ‘anomaly forcing’ between Global Hemispheres to be in ‘opposition’, e.g. NH to SH, or SH to NH dependant upon ‘greenhouse gas’ forcing between hemispheres to disclose a ‘global average’. I don’t believe that we have data to verify this on the timescale of your graph though because ‘ice cores’ at the North Pole don’t offer that ‘time scale’ for any justifiable comparison.
Secondly, Earth’s orbital peculiarities include both a ‘changing locus’ to the ‘ellipse’ of Earth’s orbit and is further ‘confused’ by ‘nutation’.
IMHO, we need (at least) a ‘second graph’ showing similar data for the ‘NH’ (Northern hemisphere) to show any conjoined/differential ‘forcing’ that may apply to the graph that you posted.
However, your posted graph shows both temperature and CO2 increasing ‘sharply’ in ‘unison’ on the scale of your graph. Surely, ‘another forcing’ must be responsible for this ‘unified reaction’ and similar data for the NH would help to ‘rule out’ some of the ‘undisclosed forcing’. Could this be ‘volcanic activity’ (my best guess)?
‘Volcanic activity’ would most likely be associated with ‘gravitational forcing’ due to ‘orbital mechanics’ and ‘may/may not’ account for the abrupt increase in CO2 and temperature ‘in tandem’ on the scale of your graph.
Other than that, are the ‘ice cores’ contaminated with/by time.
Kind regards, Ray Dart (AKA suricat).