Is ‘speed of change’ a problem? Climate models make predictions, but the reality is quite often something else. Solar activity including flares has been high in the last year or so, but this is often ignored. CO2 theory struggles with anomalies.
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Record temperatures in 2024 on land and at sea have prompted scientists to question whether these anomalies are in line with predicted global heating patterns or if they represent a concerning acceleration of climate breakdown, says The Guardian.
Heat above the oceans remains persistently, freakishly high, despite a weakening of El Niño, which has been one of the major drivers of record global temperatures over the past year.
Scientists are divided about the extraordinary temperatures of marine air.
Some stress that current trends are within climate model projections of how the world will warm as a result of human burning of fossil fuels and forests. [Talkshop comment – ignoring the Sun as usual].
Others are perplexed and worried by the speed of change because the seas are the Earth’s great heat moderator and absorb more than 90% of anthropogenic warming. [Talkshop comment – of any kind of warming?].
Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization announced that El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean, had peaked and there was an 80% chance of it fading completely between April and June, although its knock-on effects would continue.
. . .
Carlos Nobre, one of Brazil’s most influential climatologists, said no climate model accurately predicted how high sea surface temperatures would reach during the past 12 months. Given the continued heat over the sea, he said 2024 was likely to be another unusually hot year for the world as a whole.
Full article here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Eh ? Come again, please, ? ” Scientists ” are divided ? Hmm, I wonder if that’s a registered Trade Mark – to be a Scientist. … Science is just that, like the Climate & Nature : always evolving. I didnae ken that scientists were all together on “record heat ” … Just go to the other side of the hill or valley and measure the Temps. …..
I make the warming out to be a special El Nino, likely to be shortlived, but coming for the moment just in time to save global warming.
Obviously it’s all due to El Nino. In January 2023, the UAH satellite anomaly was zero. By July it was 0.95 snd has stayed there thtough the El Nino. As far as I am aware, the El Nino is forecast to lessen in the next month or so. I predict UAH temperatures will come down then
“because the seas are the Earth’s great heat moderator and absorb more than 90% of anthropogenic warming.” ??????
What is the mechanism for this?
Since when did the atmosphere heat the seas?
Phoenix44 says: March 17, 2024 at 7:45 am
“Obviously it’s all due to El Nino.”
I concur. We should soon be in the ‘La Nina’ season/phase of this cyclic phenomenon.
AC Osborn says: March 17, 2024 at 9:40 am
“because the seas are the Earth’s great heat moderator and absorb more than 90% of anthropogenic warming.” ??????
What is the mechanism for this?
Since when did the atmosphere heat the seas?”
I appreciate and concur with your concern Pheonix44!
In truth, the atmosphere has passed heat into the seas and oceans forever, but the ‘thermal transfer’ effect is to a ‘depth’ of ‘less than 1mm (exclusive of ‘surface wave mixing’) and only tends to add to the ‘evaporation rate’ of the sea/ocean, thus, adding to the ‘cloud shielding effect’ from Sol’s ‘insolation’ (IN-coming SOL-ar radi-ATION). When the atmosphere reaches an ‘overheated state’ this ‘heat/energy transfer’ at the sea/ocean interface aids the cooling of the atmosphere by way of an increase in ‘cloud cover’, thus ‘shielding’ the lower Troposphere from Sol’s insolation by both ‘Mie scattering’ and the ‘absorption’ of ‘thermal energy’ into ‘cloud droplets’ (which become ‘WV’ [Water Vapor] again) to ‘move’ the ‘thermal energy’ to a ‘higher altitude’ (WV is the ‘lightest’ gas in Earth’s atmosphere) where this ‘energy’ is more easily ‘radiated into space’ (a clearer ‘radiative’ window into Earth’s ‘exosphere’, or ‘outer space’).
However, Sol’s ‘insolation’ includes ‘other’ insolation/radiative impacts/properties to Earth that are ‘other than’ ‘thermal’. This is a ‘wide subject’, and ‘probably’, a subject that the IPCC didn’t/doesn’t even consider. Sol ’emits’ far more ‘frequencies’ than Earth ’emits’, but these ‘effects’ are not ‘properly understood’.
Sol’s ‘insolation’ to Earth has a ‘wide ranging’ ‘spectrum’ in both Earth’s ’emissions’ and ‘energy supplied’ to/from Earth, this leads to a ‘deeper warming’ of our oceans and seas. This may be both the ‘position’ and ‘timing’ of Earth’s ‘orbit’ whilst a Solar ‘flare’ is emitted during Earth’s orbital passage through that ‘sector’ of ‘Earth’s Orbit’ around Sol, or it may be due to the Earth’s ‘reactance’ to changes emitted by Sol. More research is needed here (this is looking more like an ‘electrical interaction’ generated by perhaps ‘cosmic force’ [or are these ‘local’] reactions/reactors).
In short, ‘insolation’ supplies more ‘heat’ into our oceans/seas than ‘atmospheric thermal heat absorption’ would/could ever do! The ‘thermal capacity’ between ‘air’ and ‘water’ should/would determine this.
I hope this leads to ‘a conclusion’ for you Pheonix44!
Kind regards, Ray Dart (AKA suricat).
ACO – the Guardian cites this Oct. 2023 paper: Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z
Opening sentence: ‘The ocean absorbs >90% of anthropogenic heat in the Earth system, moderating global atmospheric warming.’
Figure 2 heading: Regional intensification in ocean warming over the past two decades, 0–2000 m.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z/figures/2
They seem to attribute ‘intensification’ to largely anthropogenic factors, but also say: ‘Note that trends within this relatively short period can indicate both the forcing signal due to anthropogenic warming as well as signals superimposed due to internal climate variability.’
Whether the ‘forcing signal’ really exists is another matter. The paper claims: ‘Anthropogenic warming provides the excess heat to warm the ocean in regions where sea surface temperature is cooler than the overlying surface air temperature.’ — Their example is the Southern Ocean.
Another assertion: ‘The near-monotonic warming in mode and intermediate water layers across the Argo era (Figs. 4 and 5a), suggests a robust ocean heat gain forced by anthropogenic climate change.’ — That’s what they want it to suggest anyway.
Then the crunch: ‘Although our results are robust across a set of observational-based datasets, important questions remain, such as separating out the anthropogenic signal of OHC change from internal climate variability, particularly in mode and intermediate waters where decadal variability is poorly constrained by sparse measurements prior to the Argo era.’ [bold added]
Yes, ‘important questions remain’!
historically we should be more like 2,000 ppm and average global temperature about 4 to 5 degrees warmer, more like the Roman Warm Period.
As for “record heat” it was much hotter in 1934.
Ron, Phoenix and others, maybe you are not aware of this from the Qld Gov. Long paddock site
“The Southern Oscillation Index or SOI is a standardised index of the barometric pressures over Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. Climate scientists use the SOI to assess the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon (or ENSO), which in Queensland accounts for nearly 25 per cent of our year-to-year rainfall variability. For example, it is often wetter during a La Niña classified year (when the sustained SOI is very positive (higher than +7)) and drier during an El Niño classified year (when the sustained SOI is very negative (lower than -7)). The index scale ranges from about +35 to -35 using the Troup method of calculation used on Long Paddock.”
I have been recording daily SOI since 2015. My figures (also the graphs on the long paddock site) shows a) the El Nino was not a super El Nino as predicted -in fact it was less than the normal El nino in intensity and duration b) the El Nino finished at the end of January. The predicted drier period from the EL Nino did not happen. In SE Qld where I live the rainfall (534mm) in January was twice the 130 year average . In northern parts of Qld rainfall was a number of times the average with some area claiming records and much flooding). The present SOI for March is starting to move towards a La Nina.
In Queensland since December the temperature during the night (ie minimum temperatures) have been on average relatively high -in SE QLD (Gold Coast, Brisbane, Sunshine Coast) >20C but day temperatures have been normal -no days over 38C. One reason is the rainfall and clouds. There has been few clear days and rain during the night as well as the day.
I do not trust the Australian BOM to make accurate measurements of temperature or rainfall nor do I trust any of their predictions more than 3 days forward. They have got it wrong at times even a couple of hours forward.