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Let’s see how this theory works out in practice. A group of researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Beijing Normal University and Justus-Liebig-Universität Giessen has found a way to predict El Niño events up to a year before they occur, says Phys.org. In their paper published in the Proceedings of the National […]

More than a hint of assuming what they would like to prove here, by implying El Niños are now influenced by ‘the industrial age’. But at the end of the report a researcher says: “Maybe El Niño can just enter a mode and get stuck in it for a millennium.” Who gets to define what […]

In 24 out of 34 cases anyway, which is said to be better than existing methods. A trio of researchers from Chonnam National University, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences has found that a deep learning convolutional neural network was able to accurately predict El Niño events up […]

The necessary ocean-atmosphere coupling needed for El Niño to develop has not been observed so far, despite earlier favourable predictions. ENSO-neutral conditions are present, says NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center [pdf]. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over […]

The official view of US experts on the current status of El Niño will be delivered on Thursday. Heavy rain in California and piles of snow in the Southeast may be signs another El Niño weather phenomenon is upon us, says CBS News. – – – Heavy rain and mudslides in California, flooding in Texas, […]

The last one finished in mid-2016 and was one of the strongest on record. The World Meteorological Organization says there’s a 75-80% chance of the weather phenomenon forming by next February, BBC News reports. The naturally occurring event causes changes in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and has a major influence on weather patterns […]

The latest NOAA synopsis says: ‘Overall, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral, but with recent trends indicative of a developing El Niño.’ Sounds like a ‘definite maybe’ there, with models now forecasting a relatively weak El Niño. Warming waters in the equatorial Pacific give increasing confidence that El Niño will be here soon, says […]

Once the El Niño crutch is kicked away, what have climate models got left in terms of warming apart from ‘the pause’? Not a lot, according to this analysis. H/T GWPF El Niños can be used to make computer climate models look better than they are, for a short time at least, says Dr. David […]

The report says ‘the possible return of El Niño this year would present a unique situation’. Is there still excess heat in the system as sunspots go further into ‘quiet mode’? H/T GWPF The path to another round of El Niño in 2017 appears to be shortening, as tropical Pacific Ocean waters have been warming […]

Originally posted on wryheat:
The Earth experienced two super El Ninos recently: 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. It was expected that 2016 would be the hottest year in the satellite record which begins in 1979. It was, but by only 0.02°C over 1998. That is not statistically significant according to Dr. Roy Spencer, keeper of the UAH…

Another round of claims and counter-claims about climate is underway as natural variation takes its course. Talk of records often relates only to the satellite era. H/T GWPF Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record, reports David […]

We’re pleased to say: Rick Salvador has been busy again. [This graphic has been added by the Talkshop mainly for entertainment value] RJS writes: The following demonstrates that Metoffice Hadcrut4 is a restatement of the NOAA El Nino index. It’s based on the conjecture that not only do El Nino events have an immediate effect […]

How much of recent El Nino-backed warming was ‘man-made’, if any? NOAA has issued a La Niña watch so we may well see average temperatures going into reverse before too long. H/T GWPF El Niño is quickly fading. Sea surface temperatures are coming down in the tropical Pacific, and winds in the region have weakened. […]

Adding cloud data to climate models must be long overdue if it’s considered to be a new technique. Scientists were surprised to find that doing so accounted for over half the strength of El Niños, as Phys.org reports: A small team of researchers from the U.S., Australia and Germany has found evidence that suggests cloud […]

Panama Canal ship size limit linked to El Niño

Posted: August 8, 2015 by oldbrew in Ocean dynamics
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This type of restriction was also imposed due to the ‘super El Niño’ of 1998, inviting comparisons with what’s happening to El Niño this season. No doubt various claims will be made about the causes. BBC News reports: The Panama Canal Authority says it will temporarily cut the size of ships allowed through because of […]

This repost of Ian Wilson’s Jan 1st article at his Astro-Climate-Connection blog continues development of his hypothesis that the Moon triggers El Nino events. This is relevant as we are currently on the cusp of El Nino, which may develop as the year goes on. Ian predicted El Nino for later this year in a comment […]

What follows are extracts from the US NOAA’s own blog. They report: ‘After twelve months of El Niño Watches, we are issuing an El Niño Advisory.’ But the conditions are ‘extremely weak’ at this time [note: the maps shown are NOT current conditions]: Over the last several months, we’ve seen warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) […]

Writing from Australia Ian Wilson will be familiar to Talkshop regulars expounding his interest in astronomical connections with earth. He has three related recent articles and now a summary binding them together. Tim adds, the subject has a long history including false accusations of astrology by detractors; in this linked 1999 paper by a veteran […]

El Niño and its twin La Niña are under the spotlight this year as climate-watchers hunt for signs of expected activity that seems to have gone largely missing in recent years if compared to, say, the 1990s. Has the strength of these phenomena changed in modern times? Apparently not. ‘The charts created by the research […]

While browsing Ian Wilson’s excellent Astro-Climate Connection blog, I found a graphic showing the coincidence of El Nino with the alignment of the Lunar line of nodes (declination cycle) and line of apse (orbital precession), with the Sun. I’ve taken the liberty of adding my Solar – El Nino hypothesis to it: the proposal is […]