Nicola Scafetta: Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m

In this new research paper the leading climate models turn out to be either too inaccurate (higher sensitivity) or unalarming (lower sensitivity). – – – Plain Language Summary The last-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) are used by scientists and policymakers to interpret past and future climatic changes and to determine […]

Nicola Scafetta: Jupiter’s orbital eccentricity may drive ~60yr and millennial climate cycles.

 Plain Language Summary  The physical origin of the modulation of the cloud system and of many of the Earth’s climate oscillations from the decadal to the millennial timescales is still unclear, despite its importance in climate science. One of the most prominent oscillations has a period of about 60 years and is found in a […]

Nicola Scafetta: Solar Oscillations and the Orbital Invariant Inequalities of the Solar System

This new paper from our good friend Nicola Scafetta takes another look at the Sun’s cyclic behaviour and possible planetary influences on it, referencing various researchers whose work has appeared at the talkshop, along the way. – – – Abstract Gravitational planetary lensing of slow-moving matter streaming towards the Sun was suggested to explain puzzling […]

Nicola Scafetta: Multiscale Analysis of the Instantaneous Eccentricity Oscillations of the Planets of the Solar System from 13 000 BC to 17 000 AD

ISSN 1063-7737, Astronomy Letters, 2019, Vol. 45, No. 11, pp. 778–790.c Pleiades Publishing, Inc., 2019. Nicola Scafetta1*,FrancoMilani2, and Antonio Bianchini3, 41Department of Earth Sciences, Environment and Georesources, University of Naples Federico II,Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo, via Cinthia, 21, 80126 Naples, Italy 2 Astronomical Association Euganea, via N. Tommaseo, 70, 35137 Padova, Italy3INAF, Osservatorio […]

Nicola Scafetta: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene.

  Nicola Scafetta writes: Dear all, it was a pleasure to meet you at London. Some of you asked me about my paper in press about a link between astronomical, solar and climate oscillations. Here it is: Scafetta, N., Milani, F., Antonio Bianchini, A., Ortolani, S.: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in […]

Nicola Scafetta: High resolution coherence analysis between planetary and climate oscillations

Note from the author: I am sending you my new paper. It has been just published. Scafetta, N.: High resolution coherence analysis between planetary and climate oscillations. Advances in Space Research 57, 2121-2135, 2016. DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2016.02.029 To help access and share the article, there is the following article link, which will provide free access to […]

Scafetta & Mazzarella: Spectral coherence between climate oscillations and the M ≥ 7 earthquake historical worldwide record

Nicola Scafetta has co-authored a paper with Adriano Mazzarella on the correlation of the spectral frequencies of M7 and greater earthquakes and oceanic oscillations and length of day (LOD). He ascribes those oscillations and the LOD variation to the astronomical forcings identified in earlier papers which have similar spectral frequency peaks. Abstract We compare the NOAA […]

Nicola Scafetta: Fatal Error in Benestad and Schmidt 2009 paper on Solar Forcing

Repost from Roger Pielke Sr’s weblog. Important this isn’t lost, because it shows a fatal error in Schmidt and Benestad’s paper. A paper still relied on by the IPCC in AR5 to dismiss solar forcing as an important climate variable, five years after Nicola demolished it. Benestad and Schmidt claim they successfully rebutted Scafetta’s exposure […]

Nicola Scafetta: Coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques.

Nicola Scafetta has emailed me to let us know he has a new paper in press which adresses critiques of our solar-planetary theory. I can’t do justice to presenting this work by illustrating this post with figures from the paper using my cellphone, but this a seriously impressive piece of work which Nicola generously shares […]

Nicola Scafetta: Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly

Prolific solar-planetary scientist and long-time talkshop friend Nicola Scafetta has a new paper published in Physica A entitled ‘Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)’ which comments on Gil-Alana et al 2014; a paper purporting to dismiss any correlation between solar activity and […]

Scafetta and Willson: “the ACRIM composite as the most likely and precise representation of 35 years of TSI monitoring”

Nicola Scafetta and Richard Willson have a new paper in press which contains the most thorough analysis yet of the intercomparison of the empirical ACRIM and modeled PMOD TSI series. It’s a comprehensive yet readable paper of high interest to all diligent climate researchers interested in determining the relative strengths of various climate drivers. It is […]

Nicola Scafetta: Planetary harmonics Derived Forecast On Course

Nicola Scafetta has reminded me to revisit his global average surface temperature (GST) forecast (Cyan area), which he derived from a simple phenomenological model using solar system planetary frequencies at the start of 2012. It is clearly much more accurate than the IPCC projection from 2000 (shown in Green on the figure below). See below […]

Nicola Scafetta and Richard Willson: New paper linking short term solar variation with planetary periods

Congratulations to Nicola Scafetta  and Richard Willson on the publication of their new paper, made freely available by high impact journal Pattern Recognition in Physics : Multiscale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its nonlinear dependence on the 11 yr […]

Nicola Scafetta: Video – The Astronomical Origins of Climate Change on Earth

Dr Nicola Scafetta has asked for assistance from the talkshop to disseminate a talk he has given at the John Locke Foundation recently. We are very happy to oblige. Video below the break. The John Locke Foundation introduces the video with this text: Nicola Scafetta is a research scientist at the Active Cavity Radiometer Solar […]

Nicola Scafetta: Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

Congratulations to Dr Nicola Scafetta, who has just had another major paper published in the high-impact journal Earth-Science Reviews. In email, Nicola tells me: This paper contains a detailed analysis of all CMIP5 models used by the IPCC, and demonstrates that they do not well reproduce the decadal and multidecadal patterns since 1850 (not just […]

Coda 1 to Scafetta and Willson paper, Empirical evidences in TSI signature

This is a low interest informal article, I’ll chat, where it is easier to do as a new article than as a huge comment to an existing article. I’ve been taking a close look at some of the TSI data to see what I can find. Other matters need my attention so I am wrapping […]

Scafetta and Willson: Empirical evidences for a planetary modulation of total solar irradiance and the TSI signature of the 1.09-year Earth- Jupiter conjunction cycle

My Thanks to Nicola Scafetta for alerting us to his new paper co-authored with Richard Willson. The introductory section has a good condensed history of the solar-planetary theory worth a post in its own right really. But the meat of the paper deals with exciting new findings, including a finer resolution examination of the z-axis […]

Nicola Scafetta: Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change…

Above is updated graphic, notes on the above at the end of this web page. Cite as: Scafetta, N., Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hindcast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs. Energy & Environment: special volume ‘Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: a critical review’. Vol. 24 (3&4), […]

Nicola Scafetta: Major new sea level study – finds C21st rise likely to be less than a foot.

Congratulations to Nicola Scafetta, who has successfully published a new paper on sea level rise Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level recordsversus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes in the  journal Climate Dynamics. This is a major paper, which undertakes a comprehensive review of recent studies, which diverge widely in their findings. He finds that the main […]

Nicola Scafetta and Richard C Willson: Planetary harmonics in the historical Hungarian aurora record (1523–1960)

Congratulations! to Nicola Scafetta and Richard C Willson on the publication of their new paper: Planetary harmonics in the historical Hungarian aurora record (1523–1960). This is another excellent paper, published in Planetary and Space Science. Grabbitquick before I take it offline. Scafetta always makes papers available later if you miss this one. The Hungarian record goes back […]