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NASA finally agrees with our model estimate for cycle 25 published in 2013. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out. Leif Svalgaard predicted that cycle 25 would be higher than 24, but lower than cycle 20. Research now underway may have found a reliable new method to predict this solar activity. The Sun’s […]

A Sunspot from the Next Solar Cycle

Posted: July 11, 2019 by oldbrew in Astronomy, Solar physics

Originally posted on
July 8, 2019: Solar Cycle 25 is coming to life. For the second time this month, a sunspot from the next solar cycle has emerged in the sun’s southern hemisphere. Numbered “AR2744”, it is inset in this magnetic map of the sun’s surface from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory: How do…

This story appeared two weeks ago, and is by no means the first to suggest the arrival of the new solar cycle. But now the claims are getting louder and the telltale sunspots bigger. Looks like Solar Cycle 25 has indeed begun, writes Christian Harris at Spaceweatherlive.

Solar scientist and part-time NSA operative Leif Svalgaard has produced a prediction for solar cycle 25, four years after Rick Salvador published his 86 year prediction in the swiftly censored “Pattern Recognition in Physics”. It appears at the end of a 30 page pdf document he has published on his website. This is an interesting […]

So says a new study, which also has the benefit of being topical. The current weak solar cycle is highlighted. Periods of extreme cold winter weather and perilous snowfall, similar to those that gripped the UK in a deep freeze with the arrival of the ‘Beast from the East’, could be linked to the solar […]

One of the two processes involved is “due to high-speed particles from outside the solar system, known as galactic cosmic rays, bombarding the atmosphere and influencing the formation of clouds”, reports If so, it looks like further evidence for the Svensmark hypothesis. Changes in solar activity influence the colour and formation of clouds around […]

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:
by Javier The role of solar variability on climate change, despite having a very long scientific tradition, is currently downplayed as a climatic factor within the most popular hypothesis for climate change. As the root of this neglect lie two fundamental problems. Solar variability is quite small (about 0.1% of…

Tim writes, A new paper of considerable interest at the Talkshop… Properties of sunspot cycles and hemispheric wings since the 19th century Raisa Leussu, Ilya G. Usoskin, Rainer Arlt and Kalevi Mursula Open access with registration.

Why Phi? – modelling the solar cycle

Posted: August 27, 2016 by oldbrew in solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

We’re familiar with the idea of the solar cycle, e.g.: ‘The solar cycle or solar magnetic activity cycle is the nearly periodic 11-year change in the Sun’s activity (including changes in the levels of solar radiation and ejection of solar material) and appearance (changes in the number of sunspots, flares, and other manifestations). They have […]

New paper in A&A of interest to some Talkshop readers. The authors use drawings by Schwabe, from there estimate details about solar marks. Recently solar cycle 24 has been likened to solar cycle 7, adding interest Sunspot areas and tilt angles for solar cycles 7–10 V. Senthamizh Pavai, R. Arlt, M. Dasi-Espuig, N.A. Krivova, and […]

Vencore Weather, 30 April 2015 [Current image of the sun with virtually blank conditions; courtesy NASA/SDO] The sun is almost completely blank. The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky has gone quiet […]

Solar cycle 4b, support from 10BE proxy

Posted: February 28, 2015 by tchannon in Solar physics

One of the unsolved solar mysteries is the peculiar behaviour around year 1800. The data we have is poor leading to ambiguity on whether a solar sunspot cycle is missing from the record. Figures from paper. For a legible copy you will need to register and download the PDF. The lost sunspot cycle: New support […]

Solar cycle 24 enigma: TSI on the rise again

Posted: February 25, 2015 by tallbloke in Solar physics
Tags: ,

The latest results from the TIM/SORCE TSI instrument show that solar cycle 24 hit a peak on Feb 6th at around 1362.3W/m^2. Does anyone think it’ll go any higher?

In a detailed 2006 study, Long-term Variability in the Length of the Solar Cycle Authors: Mercedes T. Richards, Michael L. Rogers, Donald St. P. Richards the following prediction was made : “Our study suggests that the length of the sunspot number cycle should increase gradually, on average, over the next ∼75 years, accompanied by a […]

Gerry Pease has sent us a solar cycle 24 update: It’s all downhill now for solar cycle 24. Cycle 24 Max (smoothed sunspot number 81.9) appears to have occurred in April, 2014: Cycle 24 progress (last update December 1, 2014 Cycle 23 Solar Max (smoothed sunspot number 120) was in early 2000: Solar cycles 23-24 (last update December […]

This is a follow-on from another recent Talkshop post: The principal cause of bi-decadal climatic variation – The Hale cycle, or something else? The subject is a paper that appeared in 2009 which relates to the discussion. Hopefully the following abstract of it speaks for itself.

Solar cycle forecasts

Posted: September 21, 2014 by tchannon in Solar physics

  This is based on the data provided from the “Solar Cycle Progression” web page, “Provided by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center” except substantial data post processing has been done. The datasets have been heavily normalised but the F10.7 earth distance problem (or something of a similar origin) has been partially compensated before normalisation. Normalising […]

One of the advantages of being billed by the most self important climate discussion website in the world as being a purveyor of ‘way out there theory’, is that I can publish whatever I like with no risk of further reputational damage. So when Stuart (Oldbrew) spotted that Miles Mathis has written a paper inspired […]

New research claims to offer ‘a new set of observations to explore the drivers of solar activity beyond only sunspots.’ The researchers say they have found ‘a new marker to track the course of the solar cycle — brightpoints, little bright spots in the solar atmosphere that allow us to observe the constant roiling of […]

Big H/T to ‘Lord Beaverbrook’ for alerting us to this new post over at  The Hockeyschtick,. Good to see the lead author of this new paper, Dr Sandip Dhomse,  is working at my home town University of Leeds.  A paper published today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics notes that solar UV radiation can vary up to 100% during solar cycles, that it […]