Strange anomaly in sun’s solar cycle discovered in centuries-old texts from Korea

Perhaps we should be looking out for an anomalously short solar cycle to provide support for predictions of an approaching return to cooler planetary conditions? The aurora-based result doesn’t appear in the 2021 tree ring study reported here, which goes back as far as AD 969. – – – The sun’s solar cycles were once […]

The clouds on Neptune perform a surprise disappearing act, linked to the solar cycle

As the senior author of the study noted: “These remarkable data give us the strongest evidence yet that Neptune’s cloud cover correlates with the sun’s cycle”. The planet receives only 1/900th of the sunlight we get on Earth. – – – For the first time in nearly three decades of observations, clouds seen on Neptune […]

Jupiter, Earth and Venus’ tropical alignments point to the mean solar cycle length

Introduction: A number of researchers have hypothesised that the relative motions of Jupiter, Earth and Venus are connected to the length of solar cycles. In this post we will show that cyclic periods of 83 years (Gleissberg), 166 years (Landscheidt, Wilson), and 996 years (Eddy, Stefani et al) are found not just in the syzygies […]

Solar cycle 25 ‘is exceeding expectations in terms of activity’

The article says ‘The average sunspot numbers for January and February 2023 were some of the highest for around 10 years’. Rarely mentioned, but Jupiter’s perihelion, i.e. its closest orbital approach to the Sun, occurred in late January. – – – With several solar flares and coronal mass ejections soaring out into space, the sun […]

A New Paradigm for Solar Activity: The Extended Solar Cycle

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
Dec. 12, 2022: So you thought you knew the solar cycle? Think again. A new paper published in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences confirms that there is more to solar activity than the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Data from Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) reveal two solar cycles…

Newly described “solar clock” can precisely predict solar cycle events years in advance

Some bold claims made here. Results needed to back them up. – – – New research shows that a “solar clock” based on the sun’s magnetic field, rather than the presence or absence of sunspots, can precisely describe and predict many key changes throughout the solar cycle, says Eurekalert. The new framework offers a significant […]

Solar Cycle Update: The Gap is Growing

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
April 5, 2022: New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that Solar Cycle 25 is racing ahead of the official forecast–and the gap is growing: See the complete labeled plot or play with an interactive version from NOAA Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value…

Solar Cycle 25 Update

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
Jan. 10, 2022: Solar Cycle 25 is heating up. New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outrunning the official forecast. You are here: Actual sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more…

First X-flare of Solar Cycle 25

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
July 3, 2021: Now, Solar Cycle 25 has really begun. On July 3rd, new sunspot AR2838 produced the first X-class solar flare since Sept. 2017. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: The July 3rd explosion registered X1.5 on the Richter Scale of Solar Flares A pulse of…

Solar Cycle 25 Predictions Update: Talkshop vs Svalgaard

The last time we took a look at Leif Svalgaard’s SC25 prediction in 2018, he was predicting a peak amplitude of around 140SSN in 2024 according to the plot or (giving himself more latitude) “SC25 will be somewhere between SC24 and SC20, provided the Polar Field Precursor Relationship holds.” This has been modified in his […]

Solar Cycle 25 update: Sun takes a post-minimum nap.

Back in November it looked like solar cycle 25 was finally getting underway, with daily sunspot numbers peaking up to 80, and the 30 day Wolf number climbing over 30 in early December. Since then though, the Sun has relapsed into a low activity state. This won’t come as any surprise to Talkshop followers, we’ve […]

Solar Cycle 25 is here, says NASA

Solar Cycle 25 has begun, according to this NASA press release. During a media event on Tuesday, experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) discussed their analysis and predictions about the new solar cycle – and how the coming upswing in space weather will impact our lives and technology on Earth, […]

Cosmic Rays and the Weakening Solar Cycle

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
August 11, 2020: Cosmic rays are bad–and they’re probably going to get worse. That’s the conclusion of a new study entitled “Galactic Cosmic Radiation in Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum” just published in the journal Space Weather. “During the next solar cycle, we could see cosmic ray dose…

Solar Cycle Update

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
July 14, 2020: NOAA has released a new interactive tool to explore the solar cycle. It lets you scroll back through time, comparing sunspot counts now to peaks and valleys of the past. One thing is clear. Solar Minimum is here, and it’s one of the deepest in a century.…

Two Solar Cycles Active at Once

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
April 27, 2020: Today, there are two sunspots in the sun’s southern hemisphere. Their magnetic polarity reveals something interesting: They come from different solar cycles. Take a look at this magnetic map of the sun’s surface (with sunspots inset) from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory: One sunspot (AR2760) belongs to old…

Next solar cycle could bring cooler temperatures

H/T The GWPF Dr David Whitehouse reviews the history of solar cycle predictions in a new paper by the Global Warming Policy Foundation which is published today. The paper, entitled The Next Solar Cycle, And Why It Matters For Climate, can be downloaded here. – – – London, 6 April: A former BBC science correspondent […]

Steve Brown: Compilation of Solar Cycle 25 forecasts.

Contributor Steve Brown has sent me this nice plot he’s made of Solar Cycle 25 forecasts. It’s worth noting that Rick Salvador’s (blue) is the earliest, made back in 2013. The ‘NASA consensus’ forecast (green) is quite similar to Leif Svalgaard’s.

Solar Cycle 25 is slowly coming to life

Originally posted on Spaceweather.com:
Nov. 1, 2019: Breaking a string of 28 spotless days, a new sunspot (AR2750) is emerging in the sun’s southern hemisphere–and it’s a member of the next solar cycle. A picture of the sunspot is inset in this magnetic map of the sun’s surface from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory: How…

‘Terminators’ on the Sun trigger plasma tsunamis and the start of new solar cycles

This looks timely as predictions of the possibly imminent – or not – start of solar cycle 25 jockey for position, so to speak. Is there a new and better method here? In a pair of new papers, scientists paint a picture of how solar cycles suddenly die, potentially causing tsunamis of plasma to race […]

NASA goes with low Solar Cycle 25 prediction “30-50% lower than cycle 24.”

NASA finally agrees with our model estimate for cycle 25 published in 2013. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out. Leif Svalgaard predicted that cycle 25 would be higher than 24, but lower than cycle 20. Research now underway may have found a reliable new method to predict this solar activity. The Sun’s […]