Roger has been nice enough to provide Aerology a page on Tallbloke’s Talkshop to keep a recent status on the Aerology forecasting method accuracy evaluation and inclusion to ForecastWatch. Roger and I have been discussing our collaborative research for the past two years and I’m excited to share the status of the forecast’s accuracy evaluation as things develop.
The forecasting method behind Aerology is based upon the interlocking cyclic pattern in the inner planet returns, and lunar orbital dynamics cycles, that is also synchronized to the magnetic rotation of the sun. I have been generating forecast maps by this methodology since 1990, but the current evolution of the website has been posted online since December 27, 2008.
Eric Floehr recently contacted me for inclusion into ForecastWatch – a service dedicated to helping weather forecasters evaluate their forecasting methods in relation to other forecast services. I have long wanted to get an independent evaluation of how the analog forecast I generate from past cycles of raw data from 19, 37, and 55 years ago compiled together in regard to actual repeatability to show how the cyclic pattern does compared to the numerical models that always fall apart in 7 to 10 days simply because they do not consider any of the lunar tidal forces as important.
It has been my experience from looking at these patterns since 1990 that they should be at least equal or better than the 5 day out forecast the models generate. IF they can beat that level of accuracy – then it would to me prove that the repeating patterns are the XX% of the drivers behind the weather.
With the basic idea of mine that these forces and their patterns should be incorporated into the numerical models, to take advantage of the increase in length of time they will then be accurate so as to give farmers and construction workers, as well as severe weather warning forecasters more time to change plans or issue watches, warnings, and evacuations, to save many lives, as well as much property damage, and crop loss.
The forecast data he’ll be evaluating was forecast (using the Aerology analog forecasting method) 3 years ago. To have daily forecasts with any kind of accuracy out past two weeks will be a first for the world as far as main stream meteorologists are concerned. From further evaluating the results he gets I will be guided in my upgrade of the forecast method and further generation of longer series of daily maps.
Currently, we’re waiting to hear back on the incorporation of the data into ForecastWatch and the analysis of forecast’s accuracy evaluation – these processes should be completed within a month or so. I’ll continue to post updates to this page as the analysis develops, the evaluation is released and as we explore the possibility of incorporation of these patterns into numerical models.
Thanks again to Roger for giving me the opportunity to share this exciting development on Tallbloke’s Talkshop. Looking forward to posting news as it becomes available.
For more information on Aerology and the analog forecasting method behind it, please visit aerology.com.
New Map format 1 degree contour line 32F is white contour line, the composite first then the four past cycles to compare how repetitive the cycles might be.
Maximum temp maps composite first then the cyclic components start below.
Posted these to show how much reparation there is between cycles of daily weather patterns 6558 days apart. Now able to post color scale for temperatures at this time but will update asap.
These maps added January 6th 2012. by Richard Holle