Archive for the ‘Analysis’ Category

Met Office Scarborough, site 99142

Posted: April 21, 2016 by tchannon in Analysis, Surfacestation

Tim writes

Under can’t make it up comes the Met Office adding Scarborough to Datapoint and Swanage vanishing.

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Figure 1, photograph ©2013 Copyright Christopher Hall under CC, annotation, the author, same licence.

Hall’s image legend: –

Springhill Lane
Just above the hedge can be seen the top of a World War II pill box. This was sited to give protective cover to the Royal Navy radio station in Sandybed Lane at the foot of the hill. The fenced flat area in the background is Springhill Reservoir opened in 1928 to augment the town’s water supply at a time when new developments were taking place. Water is pumped to here from Irton Waterworks.

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Tim writes,

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Figure 1, Met Office Hadley monthly rainfall series for England and Wales start date 1766. Winter 2015/16 was wet but ordinary. (data processing by the author, see previous articles)
Plots for all data series as PDF (2MB).

Some other parts / regions of the country do show an extreme but this adds weight to the flicker noise (or 1/f) hypothosis for weather noise.

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There’s been a lot of loud rhetoric flying around about the update to the RSS satellite temperature series. What it actually amounts to is a consolidation of the satellite temperature measurement effort.

rss-uah-to-2016

The two time series are now in good agreement and exhibit a warming rate of 0.13K/decade during the 1980-2015 period.

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slowdown
Climate scientist Ed Hawkins comments on the paper of which he is one of the co-authors. Others include Ben Santer and Michael Mann.

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming ‘slowdown’ or ‘hiatus’, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented in a new commentary in Nature Climate Change by Fyfe et al. contradicts these claims.
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Earth and Planetary Science Letters Has an interesting paper in the works. A new proxy informs a model which finds bigger than expected swings in CO2 linked to smaller than expected temperature swings in the past five million years. This indicates that the Earth’s climate system is less sensitive to CO2 levels than previously thought. Maybe they should take more notice of Leaf Stomata calibrations than Antarctic ice cores?

stomata

CO2 over the past 5 million years: Continuous simulation and new δ11B-based proxy data

Abstract
During the past five million yrs, benthic δ18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial–interglacial CO2 variability of 60–100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate.

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leaveeu

Oct 23-24 2015  Yougov   Feb 3-4 2016

Reblogged from Rt Hon David Davis MP’s website, this is a comprehensive look at the case for Brexit.

David Davis: Brexit – what would it look like? – 4 February 2016

It has been over 43 years since Britain joined the European Economic Community. For all that time there have been calls for Europe to reform. For Europe to be more democratic, more competitive, more functional. And for Britain to lead that reform.

The result? If anything Europe has become less democratic, less competitive and more dysfunctional. And Britain has become more side-lined.

The EU has been in decline for some time now. There is no change of course in sight. The risks involved in staying are clear for all to see – low growth, high unemployment, and waning influence.

In 1975 the EU was the bright future, a vision of a better world. Now it is a crumbling relic from a gloomy past. We must raise our eyes to the wider world.

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My thanks to talkshop reader Jamal Munshi for alerting me to his paper on ozone and aerosols. It makes a strong case for viewing the ozone level above the Antarctic as a special case due to its unique geography, calling into question conclusions about human emissions drawn by scientists and acted on by the Montreal protocol. This is important as this agreement has been used as a template for ‘climate action’ subsequently.

ABSTRACT:

The overall structure of changes in total column ozone levels over a 50-year sample period from 1966 to 2015 and across a range of latitudes from -90o to +71o shows that the data from Antarctica prior to 1995 represent a peculiar outlier condition specific to that time and place and not an enduring global pattern. The finding is inconsistent with the RowlandMolina theory of chemical ozone depletion. 1 1.

INTRODUCTION

In 1971, renown environmentalist James Lovelock studied the unrestricted release of halogenated hydrocarbons (HHC) into the atmosphere from their use as aerosol dispensers, fumigants, pesticides, and refrigerants. He was concerned that (1) these chemicals were man-made and they did not otherwise occur in nature and that (2) they were chemically inert and that therefore their atmospheric release could cause irreversible accumulation. In a landmark 1973 paper by Lovelock, Maggs, and Wade he presented the discovery that air samples above the Atlantic ocean far from human habitation contained measurable quantities of HHC (Lovelock, Halogenated hydrocarbons in and over the Atlantic, 1973). It established for the first time that environmental issues could be framed on a planetary scale and it served as the first of three key events that eventually led to the Montreal Protocol and its worldwide ban on the production, sale, and atmospheric release of HHC (UNEP, 2000).

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NOAA’s vandalism of ERSSTv3b2 (good) to ERSSTv4 (corrupted) hinges on a single point.

Visual catalog of the beautiful natural patterns being systematically defaced:

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1. Secular

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Reblog from Clive Best’s site.

The basis of IPCC predictions is that any moderate warming caused by increased CO2 levels is enhanced by more evaporation from the oceans. Water vapour is itself a strong greenhouse gas and this increase results in a large “positive feedback” boosting climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 as high as 6C.
This is all just  theory however, so it is important to observe whether water vapour in the atmosphere has actually increased or not in response to increasing CO2. The data shown below are from the NASA NVAP [1] project based on radiosonde, TIROS,TOVS & SSM/I satellite based data. This data was kindly brought to my attention by Ken Gregory [2].

Fig 1: total Precipitative water vapour in 3 levels in the atmosphere im mm. The 3 curves are Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere and the “Global average” – see 2) below.


The data from NVAP shows little change in  water vapour from 1988 until 2001 at all levels in the atmosphere.  If anything a  small decrease in the important upper atmospheric layers  in the detail shown below Fig1b.

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H/T to Paul Vaughan for pointing to a series of comments by Bill Illis on wuwt, which describe and differentiate between the under-ice salt induced sinking which forms Arctic deep water and the Greenland-melt surface waters which flow into the Gulf Stream. These were in response to an alarmist paper which claims that increased freshwater flux could weaken the AMOC and thus global circulation.

Bill Illis responds:

And the salinity in the ocean in the area in question has changed by exactly ZERO. The paper doesn’t address this issue one iota.

The AMOC starts under the sea ice throughout the entire Arctic Ocean basin. Somehow climate scientists have convinced themselves that the deep water formation of the AMOC is next to Greenland. There is no way to correct them because they don’t actually care what the facts are, just what gets them published in the climate theology field.

The sea surface temperatures in the Norwegian Sea range from +2.0C to +10.0C.

The Arctic Bottom Water is -0.5C to -1.0C and is 3000 metres deeper. it has nothing to do with the Nowegian Sea.

The Arctic Bottom Water overflows the canyons and chokepoints out of the Arctic Ocean basin, particularly the Fram Strait canyon, the Denmark Strait and the Greenland-Scotland Ridge.

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Folks pop in, Michele dropped this one

Red here means dry, Italy according to this provisional data was the dryest since year 1800.

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http://www.isac.cnr.it/~climstor/climate/latest_month_PCP.html

More general plots and information on this link

Would I be overstating to suggest there is a connection between this and northern England sploshing?

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A very exceptional December

Posted: January 22, 2016 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

I don’t do fairy, December was exceptional, call it.
This article was prepared early January then was delayed by circumstances.

An automated system here on demand recomputes Met Office areal data in a unique way[1] with the intent of producing a statistical measure of variation. Data is approximately normalised. Does the same for the Hadley Centre data series.

The results tend to contradict Met Office assertions by their ordinary staff. Shortly before the month end an actual Met Office expert gave a different opinion (misquoted elsewhere afterwards by the BBC), essentially it is weather. Claiming El Nino is global after Scaife in a different BBC interview merely stated some kind of an effect in Europe can be unearthed. (paraphrasing what he meant)

The BBC were in full flood about the sloshing session in a few parts of the UK. The part I saw, part of a much longer section showed some figures, without a full explanation but then Scaife appeared. What he said is I think interesting.Image

Scaife did not claim unprecedented, merely not like this for a very long time, 100 years.

We are on course for the warmest December in more than 100 years of records and the wettest December for many parts of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and northwest England in more than 100 years…

[see 2] video extract of Scaife

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Last 2 years of Met Office areal series from 1910 (or 1929 sun) for 15 UK regional mixes, rain, sun, Tmin, Tmean, Tmax. Processed to z-score by the author, annual cycle removed. PDF of above for zoom/pan here

Weather was warm everywhere. Was not wet in the south.

The primary work produces full time series, five PDF containing full time of all above together with various metrics.

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New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.

sats-from-1995

Fig 1. Global temperature series from the two satellite datasets. The big El nino events in 1998 and 2010 were both followed by downturns. The 2015 El Nino will also be followed by a downturn in temperature.

Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that  we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.

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Met Office station data release

Posted: December 30, 2015 by tchannon in climate, Dataset, Surfacestation, weather

I am making available all the data collected from Met Office Datapoint for UK land stations.

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Example of data processed to show deviations.

This is hourly from 22nd July 2014 through 28th 31st Dec 2015, missing, etc. excepted. The data has been processed into time series with missing data filled with not available marks and also the verbatim datapoint XML as received.

A Talkshop page has been added, can get to it via top menu Portal, direct link here.

This ought to be a gold mine for those able to work on data. Millions of datapoints. The Met Office do not archive this immediate data for public access so whilst there are defects, you’ll have trouble finding this elsewhere.

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Scene on the pampas in Argentina  [image credit: globalgeopolitics.net]

Scene on the pampas in Argentina
[image credit: globalgeopolitics.net]

This CO2Science report won’t be to the liking of those who claim the MWP was confined to parts of the northern hemisphere.

Vilanova et al. (2015) developed a multi-proxy millennial environmental record from sediment cores extracted from Laguna Nassau, a shallow lake that apparently developed within a blowout depression in the semi-arid sandy lowlands of the Western Pampas of Argentina.

And as they go on to report, “this multi-proxy stacked record reveals the evolution of an incipient water body subjected to warm and dry conditions from ~900 to 770 cal yr BP, an interval that is coeval with the Medieval Climatic Anomaly,” which is also more commonly known as the Medieval Warm Period or MWP.

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Earth's orbit [credit: NASA]

Earth’s orbit [credit: NASA]


We’ll assume the diagram is self-explanatory but if not, this should help (see opening paragraphs).

We’re looking at Aphelion minus Perihelion (A – P) distances of the giant planets.
Figures are given in units of a million kms. (lowest value first), using Jupiter as a baseline.

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Going through one of the old PRP shutdown threads I spotted a comment from regular A C Osborn I missed in all the hubbub. It linked to this thread on Bishop Hill, and I thought I’d repost it here for some consideration, since it’s right in our ~60yr oscillation in LOD ballpark. His grace’s intro follows:

Reader Paul K (a regular writer at Lucia’s) left this fascinating comment on the thread about the England trade winds paper. As BH regulars know, I don’t spend a lot of time on alternative theories of climate change, but I felt this was worthy of an airing.

As Nic correctly points out, from the observed data, the total global ocean heat flux shows a peak around 2001-2005 depending on which dataset one takes. TOA radiative measurements show a peak in net radiative incoming flux somewhere around 1997-2000, driven largely by SW changes in net albedo. Modern MSL data from satellite altimetry (or indeed from tide gauge data) shows a peak in its derivative function around 2001-2003, which should also be a proxy for net heat flux going into the ocean. (Using gravimetric data from GRACE, we can rule out the possibility that the peak in MSL derivative was caused by mass addition – it is a peak clearly driven by thermosteric expansion. There is a useful presentation here by Nerem.

So there is a consistent story from three data sources which says that the net incoming flux hit a peak and has since been decreasing overall for about a decade. This is not compatible with increasing forcing from GHGs and flat or declining tropospheric temperature – a mini paradox, if you will.

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Tim writes: here we have a demonstration of both sides of scientific and organisational integrity. Ten years later, 2005, there was confirmation of the poor practice.

Some time ago Part 1 was published

The last line of the 1995 email was withheld. Here it is

Our daily series is anchored to the monthly one so that
each months average calculated from the daily data equals its value
in Manleys monthly series.

The Met Office promote “Hadley Centre Central England Temperature” and HadCET but avoid “Manley CET”. There was and is no daily Manley CET. The Met Office made one up, adjusting daily figures to average the Manley CET monthly value exactly.

January 1974 onwards there is no Manley CET data to constrain Met Office daily figures.

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Above is an image of the email, the verbatim server files from US publishing site are here inside a zip. File timestamps are preserved, presumably from original FTP disk write here on a contemporary computer system.

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Nice day

Nice day


From the dept of unsexy climate headlines we get news that there’s no news so far as precipitation is concerned. A new paper which examines a HUUUUGE number of records worldwide finds that there’s no trends anywhere of any significance from 1850. So much for dire warnings of increased droughts and floods due to extra CO2 which DO grab the headlines.

Changes in annual precipitation over the Earth’s land mass excluding Antarctica from the 18th century to 2013

 
Highlights

Over 1½ million monthly precipitation totals observed at 1000 stations in 114 countries analysed.

Data record much longer than 3 recent conflicting studies that analysed a few decades of data.

No substantial difference found for stations located at northern, tropical and southern latitudes.

No substantial difference found for stations experiencing dry, moderate and wet climates.

No significant global precipitation change from 1850 to present.

 

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Year or so ago I came up with a way to check out claims of extremes by the Met Office, use their own data but processed in a novel way. This software suit is automated, few clicks, whole thing is recreated from new data.

I’d heard Met Office claim November was set for the hottest ever for England, note the qualification to a region.

The Met Office blog posted this on 27th November 2015. Squealing a few days before month end has become a habit followed by stum. This time? Today is 2nd December, stum.

Warm November on course to equal record in England
27 11 2015

Early provisional statistics* (1- 25 November) show November has been notable for its mild weather.

Overall, temperatures for the UK have been 2.2°C above the November average, with this month on course in England to equal the previous warmest November in 1994 (9.5°C).

The other UK nations have been similarly warm

the mean temperature of 9.2°C in Wales currently the second warmest November on record here – behind 1996 (9.4°C)
the mean temperature of 6.6°C is currently joint third warmest in Scotland – behind 7.7°C in 2011 and 7.5°C in 1994
the mean temperature of 8.0°C in Northern Ireland is currently the fourth warmest on record – behind 8.8°C in 1994, 8.7°C in 2011 and 8.1°C in 2007
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/27/warm-november-on-course-to-equal-record-in-england/

Now I’m taking into account annual variation and trying to produce a statistical measure for a value, how extreme.

Broadly the UK was warm, wet, dull. Exceptional, no. Trend, no.

Top 20 rankings follow

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