Archive for the ‘Analysis’ Category

This paper needs discussion.

The Hockey Schtick has an article up on a just published 69 page paper where MS has managed to find a copy.


The above comparisons indicate that Eq. (10b) rather accurately reproduces the observed variation of mean surface temperatures across a wide range of planetary environments characterized in terms of solar irradiance (from 1.5 W m-2 to 2,602 W m-2), total atmospheric pressure (from near vacuum to 9,300 kPa), and greenhouse-gas concentrations (from 0.0% to over 96% per volume).

Now rip the paper apart. What if anything about it is safe?


Guernsey weather station

Posted: August 22, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation, weather

Few days ago I noted new sites flash up on screen as a daily weather capture took place.

Guernsey is the second largest of the Channel Islands, a group just off the French coast beside the Cherbourg peninsular.

Met Office Datapoint have added Guernsey, Jersey is already in the data. This is surprising they are similar islands, close geographically, climatically similar.

As usual the Met Office only give crude co-ordinates and no other information. Looks like it is at the airport, as is the Jersey station. On looking I learnt there is

Guernsey Met Office
A division of the States of Guernsey Public Services Department

A further surprise is the 2014 Annual Weather Report (58 pages), a very good work, refreshing in this age of newspeak and excesses.


The Lihou Island Automated Met Station received a major service and upgrade in the summer. The station is very important in that it measures temperatures in a completely unspoilt environment. The presence of the Met Observatory at Guernsey Airport means that the airfield provides the official temperature record for the island. Since the Met Office moved there in 1947, however, the land use of the airfield and the surrounding area has changed markedly with a notable increase in the acreage of tarmac, concrete, buildings and other man made surfaces. This land use change results in the formation of an “airport heat island” a phenomenon observed around the world where areas of concrete, roads and runways heat up on days with strong sunlight and then slowly release their heat through the night.

Although the Guernsey Airport heat island is small when averaged over the course of a year and only raises average temperatures by a fraction of a degree, it is an unwelcome variable that makes it harder to accurately detect temperature changes caused by genuine climate change. The Lihou record is therefore invaluable in that it measures temperature in an area where no significant development has been undertaken or will be allowed to take place. Over many years, it should therefore be possible to compare the Lihou temperature record with that of Guernsey Airport and gain an understanding of how land use changes on and around the airport are altering our temperature records.

Google or Bing aerial pictures show the airport is a building site (Google Earth timeline is useful for this). A probable meteorological enclosure, near the control tower, seems to have moved quite recently, to where, no idea. Possibly the Guernsey Met Office have a separate site.


Solar — Hide The Decline

Posted: August 11, 2015 by tchannon in Accountability, Analysis, Incompetence

Couple of days ago oldbrew posted an article highlighting an article at, one thing leads to another


Figure 1, Annotated copy of plot. from mis-rendering web page where mis-render covered the time scale.


Figure 2, screen capture from web browser showing misrendering hiding the time scale and that tripped “why?”

The caption makes claim of a comparison but makes no mention of omitting recent data which does differ between the two versions (see fig 6). Additionally the plot start is 1749 as the monthly time series but the data plotted is the annual time series not the monthly.


Figure 3, reproduction of the dubious work using WDC-SILO data except showing all the data, less the very early part as above.


The 'before' version of sunspot numbers [Credit: Wikipedia]

The ‘before’ version of sunspot numbers [Credit: Wikipedia]

This result has been at least half-expected ever since the ‘revision’ of sunspot numbers was announced. The phrase ‘desired outcome’ springs to mind.

The Sunspot Number is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change, reports It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries. The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity.

The analysis, its results and its implications for climate research were made public today at a press briefing at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) XXIX General Assembly, currently taking place in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA.


HADCRUT Cool The Past Yet Again

Posted: August 5, 2015 by oldbrew in alarmism, Dataset, MET office


The longer the so-called pause – the new normal? – goes on, the more popular ‘cooling the past’ becomes with state-funded organisations like the Met Office. Check the satellite records.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

HADCRUT have just released their latest version 4.4, and guess what? Yes, the past has been cooled again!

This is is how things have changed since version 4.3.

View original 133 more words

Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]

Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]

We have highlighted this before, but the period just keeps getting longer, much to the relief of many U.S. citizens no doubt. reports: It has been 117 months since a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or above, has made landfall in the continental United States, according to 2015 data from the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This is the longest span of time in which no major hurricane has struck the mainland U.S. in NOAA hurricane records going back to 1851.


July frost

Posted: July 9, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

Wierding continues


Morning of 9th July 2015 the Katesbridge Met Office site reported a frost, flat lining air temperature close to 0.0C which arguably means frost was forming on the Stevenson screen. Whether this was an air frost, don’t know. Dew formation produces a less clear flat but is not usually clear in hourly data.

Notoriously cold still air site, convective cooling, no wind. Sun was up by 5AM but there are low hills thereabouts.


More notably temperatures were widely below 10C (50F) in Northern Ireland, England and Scotland. Where there was a wind, a good example St Bees Head where it was off sea, 11C, Arctic air, reaching right across, Bridlington where the screen is almost on the east coast foreshore was also cool.


HadUKP precipitation, nothing to see here

Posted: July 7, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

This little work rather counters the headless chickens preparing for a French cooking pot.


Figure 1, CRU/Hadley/Met Office precipitation series starting 1766, just one in the HadUKP series. Good news, there is nothing more than weather noise in any of the 11 region series. All bundled in this PDF. (2MB)
For number watchers, Jan 2014 came 11th wettest.

This note is on their web page

We are currently planning a project to merge the HadUKP series with the England and Wales Rainfall series described above. The outcome of this project will be a single historical rainfall series for the UK.

I suppose that makes sense yet neither series is IMO satisfactory on geography. The UK has a variety of weather regimes. Merging regimes has the effect of mixing evidence where average is not very useful. Is there a better solution?


The Met Office have some explaining to do.

Why 7 minutes after a claimed hottest ever did the same place publish a safety record at least 1.2C lower? It was lower 7km, away at Northholt and all the surrounding places. Muttering about thunder won’t wash either because CAVOK says no, if it is correct. Plume from France? It was much colder to the south, Met Office data says so. Fohn? Ah yes the snow capped Sussex Alps.


Image from OGIMET, no link given to protect private server from excess traffic.

Someone please cross check me in case this is mistaken.

  • 13:20 it is 31C
  • 13:50 it is 35C
  • 14:20 it is 35C
  • 14:50 it is 34C

Perhaps aeronatutical services use a different thermometer but the Met Office site is an WMO synoptic station. Why pay for the Met Office site if it isn’t used? If it is a site there for accurate climatic recording why such a poor location? (see other articles)

The 11 figure is dewpoint, also in contradiction.

Then there is the matter of Met Office Support giving the author the runaround since January over wrong meteorological hourly data emitted by the Met Office servers. The similarity is curious.


This work is intended to give insight into the climate of the UK.


Figure 1, Sunshine and temperature relationship

At first sight the above might seem strange but is logical. Regional effect can be seen, particularly the Atlantic maritime, eg. East vs. West Scotland, a contrast with the dryer East Anglia and NE England.

The underlying data is a heavily processed version of Met Office areal series by the author, all results 1929 through June 2015. Final data section is linked to various plots and data.


A squint at Met Office HadNMAT2

Posted: June 25, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis

Given 28 gridded datasets and a variety of novel things to try, I be flummoxed. Try this

The new dataset kid on the block, seems to have appeared 6th June is Met Office Hadley Centre HadNMAT V2, nighttime marine air temperature. Grided at 5 degrees.


Figure 1, an experimental plot from data generated by alpha software. So far as I know this is correct. The main graphic is a hovmoller plot intending to show how the contribution to a global temperature computation has varied spatial with time.


Hadcrut4 data coverage

Posted: June 19, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, Dataset

I’ll give the Met Office / Hadley / CRU some due, at least there are signs of actual data.

What-if a list of the dataset grid cells with data from the start Jan 1850 to current is computed? Where are these and what does the data look like?


Figure 1, A fragment in time of the entire consistent Hadcrut 4 gridded data, weighted data as per computing a global mean.

This suggests the reputed bad winters during WWII. Computing the global equivalent would need the weighted mean completing, sum and then divide by the sum of weights. Unweighted (not shown) is similar except the winter 1944 has a hot peak, ie. largely a polar matter. There again without global data is any of this valid?


Since I can, maybe, I decided to sell the new software a pup…

Goes likes this: plot RSSTLT and UAHTLT6 with the do not delete file flag, import both CSV into spreadsheet, subtract, change some text, export as CSV, start hacking, add a way to accept an alien file, and yay, it works.


Figure 1, RSSTLT less UAHTLT V6, forced plot range, unweighted

Any no data in either is no data, otherwise verbatim.
Force range is about that Himalayas spike in RSS, autoscale sees it but is so extreme a manual reduces the range, value clips to maximum colour, no change. (in a global sense one cell is gnats pee)

PDF for pan and zoom is here (283kB)
I can do a version with annotated temperatures if requested, large file. If names want this, expect you have my email.


Antarctic sea ice sets new high In May

Posted: June 4, 2015 by oldbrew in Analysis, Dataset, sea ice
Tags: ,

Tabular iceberg in the Weddell Sea [credit: British Antarctic Survey]

Tabular iceberg in the Weddell Sea [credit: British Antarctic Survey]

These Antarctic headlines are becoming almost routine, but still worth noting in view of all the propaganda telling us the world is supposed to be warming.

This is a comparison of data for the month of May only, stretching back to 1979. In the files linked at the end of the report (see ‘Source’ in original), there are separate figures for ‘extent’ and ‘area’, with an explanation of the difference (see Arctic file).

The lowest May figures (since 1979) for both polar regions were recorded in 2006, but the Antarctic was 12% above the long-term May average this year.

Report: Antarctic Sea Ice Sets New High In May.

moon-cartoonWASHINGTON, May 28, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — NASA will host a media teleconference at 1 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 3, to discuss the Hubble Space Telescope’s surprising observations of how Pluto’s moons behave, and how these new discoveries are being used in the planning for the New Horizons Pluto flyby in July.

Participants in the teleconference will be:

  • John Grunsfeld, associate administrator for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington
  • Mark Showalter, senior research scientist at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California
  • Douglas Hamilton, professor of astronomy at the University of Maryland, College Park
  • John Spencer, scientist at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado
  • Heidi Hammel, executive vice president of the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington


Relevant to current discussions on the talkshop concerning changes in Earth’s length of day (LOD) and the effect of planetary orbital resonances on the Moon’s orbital parameters and Earth climatic variation; this is a repost from Ian Wilson’s excellent Astro-Climate-Connection website. Ian very generously opens with a hat tip to this blog, (at which he is one of the ‘collaborators’ he mentions). 

Connecting the Planetary Periodicities to Changes in the Earth’s LOD
Monday, October 14, 2013 : Ian Wilson PhD

[(*) Some of the findings in this blog post concerning the connection between the Earth’s rotation rate and the planetary configurations have also been independently discovered by Rog “Tallbloke” Tattersall and his collaborators]

A. The Connection Between Extreme Pergiean Spring Tides and Long-term Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate as Measured by the Rate-of-Change of its Length-of-Day (LOD). (*)

If you plot the rate of change of the Earth’s Length of Day (LOD) [with the short-term atmospheric component removed] against time [starting in 1962] you find that there is a ~ 6 year periodicity that is phase-locked with the 6 year period that it takes the lunar line-of-nodes  to re-align with the lunar line-of-apse [see the first note directly below and reference [1] for a description of the method used to determine the time rate of change of LOD].

NB: The pro-grade precession of the lunar line-of-apse once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 8.8504 Julian years (J2000) while the retrograde precession of the lunar line-of-apse line-of-nodes once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 18.6000 Julian years (J2000). Hence, the lunar line-of-apse and the ascending node of the lunar line-of-nodes will realign once every:

(18.6000 x 8.8504) / (18.6000 + 8.8504)  = 5.9969 Julian years

Figure 1



This is an experimental work which I am sure has been done far better by professionals who will have proper access to special data and expertise. [updated with corrections]Image

Figure 1, overlay plots of pairs of almost raw datasets, in each case the Met Office areal mean temperature data for England and Wales, less annual, against gridded UAHTLT V6 beta 2, UAHTLT V5.6, RSSTLT V3.3, Hadcrut4 V4.3.0.0, the latter is unfair because it is gridded at 5 degrees instead of 2.5 degrees. In all cases the geographic area overlap is very approximate.

Click image for larger but preferably download this PDF (106KB) since as a vector plot zoom/enlargement and pan allow examination in great detail.


One of Greenland's islands [credit: Wikipedia]

One of Greenland’s islands [credit: Wikipedia]

Science Daily reports on recent research by Oregon State University (H/T The Hockeyshtick):
A new study using evidence from a highly detailed ice core from West Antarctica shows a consistent link between abrupt temperature changes on Greenland and Antarctica during the last ice age, giving scientists a clearer picture of the link between climate in the northern and southern hemispheres.

Greenland climate during the last ice age was very unstable, the researchers say, characterized by a number of large, abrupt changes in mean annual temperature that each occurred within several decades. These so-called “Dansgaard-Oeschger events” took place every few thousand years during the last ice age. Temperature changes in Antarctica showed an opposite pattern, with Antarctica cooling when Greenland was warm, and vice versa.

In this study funded by the National Science Foundation and published this week in the journal Nature, the researchers discovered that the abrupt climates changes show up first in Greenland, with the response to the Antarctic climate delayed by about 200 years. The researchers documented 18 abrupt climate events during the past 68,000 years.


This paper published 10th March tries to identify major episodic solar activity by using both 14C and 10BeImage

(note to reader, above x-axis has advancing time running right to left)

Grand solar minima and maxima deduced from 10Be and 14C: magnetic dynamo configuration and polarity reversal
F. Inceoglu, R. Simoniello, M. F. Knudsen, C. Karoff, J. Olsen, S. Turck-Chiéze, B. H. Jacobsen
A&A 577 A20 (2015)
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201424212


Aims. This study aims to improve our understanding of the occurrence and origin of grand solar maxima and minima.
Methods. We first investigate the statistics of peaks and dips simultaneously occurring in the solar modulation potentials reconstructed using the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) 10 Be and IntCal13 14 C records for the overlapping time period spanning between ~1650 AD to 6600 BC.


I’ve included this on the front page because I think the bimodality of solar data is an important matter where this work adds weight to the effect being real.
Open access with registration


As I promised here is the result from the thermal radiation instruments where as expected little was seen through light cloud.


Figure 1. CNR1 radiometer. (two pairs, looking up/down, short/long wavelength)

There is a minor effect during the eclipse. I live close by where the sun could be made out through light cloud. Around 12 hrs the cloud cleared abruptly. Video taken at Chilbolton shows similarly sudden sunshine.

Two factors in figure 1 need comment.