I don’t do fairy, December was exceptional, call it.
This article was prepared early January then was delayed by circumstances.
An automated system here on demand recomputes Met Office areal data in a unique way with the intent of producing a statistical measure of variation. Data is approximately normalised. Does the same for the Hadley Centre data series.
The results tend to contradict Met Office assertions by their ordinary staff. Shortly before the month end an actual Met Office expert gave a different opinion (misquoted elsewhere afterwards by the BBC), essentially it is weather. Claiming El Nino is global after Scaife in a different BBC interview merely stated some kind of an effect in Europe can be unearthed. (paraphrasing what he meant)
The BBC were in full flood about the sloshing session in a few parts of the UK. The part I saw, part of a much longer section showed some figures, without a full explanation but then Scaife appeared. What he said is I think interesting.
Scaife did not claim unprecedented, merely not like this for a very long time, 100 years.
We are on course for the warmest December in more than 100 years of records and the wettest December for many parts of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and northwest England in more than 100 years…
[see 2] video extract of Scaife
Last 2 years of Met Office areal series from 1910 (or 1929 sun) for 15 UK regional mixes, rain, sun, Tmin, Tmean, Tmax. Processed to z-score by the author, annual cycle removed. PDF of above for zoom/pan here
Weather was warm everywhere. Was not wet in the south.
The primary work produces full time series, five PDF containing full time of all above together with various metrics.