Archive for the ‘Analysis’ Category

Congress asks: warming pause – yes or NOAA? 

Posted: November 17, 2015 by oldbrew in Dataset, pause, Politics

Seas getting warmer?

Seas getting warmer?

Time for the NOAA to front up and explain to US public representatives how it came up with its own temperature data that ran counter to everyone else’s, as GWPF reports.

Scientists and top officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have agreed to start interviews akin to depositions this week with House investigators, who are demanding to know their internal deliberations on a groundbreaking climate change study.

But the interviews may not be enough to placate the chairman of the House science committee, a global warming skeptic who last week stepped up the pressure on the Commerce Department to comply with his subpoena for e-mails that NOAA has refused to turn over.


Era ending for Martin’s Booty

Posted: November 15, 2015 by tchannon in climate, Dataset, History, weather

Back in April I noticed this but did not post an article


Many people have wandered through the wonderland Martin created during the early years of the world wide web. His painstaking construction of an annotated weather timeline from ancient times up to today.

Booty Meteorological Information Source

IMPORTANT: Some elements on this web site will continue to be maintained as long as I am able – mainly the West Moors local weather data: however, the ‘Weather in History’ section will have to be ‘frozen’ now as I can no longer access the ‘raw data’ to add-to / amend the entries. However, I’m pleased to report that the British Library have offered to archive the entire site (with the ‘Weather in History’ files embedded) and this will mean that the data will be available as long as that organisation is in being: the host web site is HERE: enter the search term ” Booty Meteorological ” into the text box to find the data.


Taylor Dome CO2 used by IPCC, corrected timeline

Posted: November 12, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis

During June 2014 oldbrew published “Explaining(?) abrupt climate change” based on an article published by Judith Curry. The author noticed Antarctica Taylor Dome is mentioned, an interest of the author because of long known highly suspect features of the data for this core and realised the implications of cross checking Antarctica ice cores to a common major event history, in this case with a profound change in timescale. Assuming the high resolution ion data and the low resolution gas data share time, reworking ion data also reworks gas data. The effect of doing this moves CO2 more recent and produces a good CO2 modulation match for the Medeaval Warm Period and Little Ice Age . The IPCC use Taylor Dome as part of the CO2 story. A lot of information has been omitted from the below such as the history over Taylor Dome dating conflicts. The original draft was written a year ago, now been shortened.

The paper behind the above is published Nature Climate Change, “Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the Common Era” doi:10.1038/nclimate2293. A supplementary file is available containing sufficient information for a reproduction of the critical part.


Figure T1, final result, reproduced with comment later.
Whether this is valid is a matter for discussion.



Figure T2, Reworked data showing the old and new timescales.



Politician turned pundit Michael Portillo made this comment on BBC’s ‘This Week’ programme, hosted by the more than slightly sceptical (on the qt) Andrew ‘brillo’ Neil.


Matt Ridley: The Climate Wars And The Damage To Science
Global Warming Policy Foundation, 5 November 2015

Matt-RidleyAt the heart of the debate about climate change is a simple scientific question: can a doubling of the concentration of a normally harmless, indeed moderately beneficial, gas, from 0.03% of the atmosphere to 0.06% of the atmosphere over the course of a century change the global climate sufficiently to require drastic and painful political action today? In the end, that’s what this is all about. Most scientists close enough to the topic say: possibly. Some say: definitely. Some say: highly unlikely. The ‘consensus’ answer is that the warming could be anything from mildly beneficial to dangerously harmful: that’s what the IPCC means when it quotes a range of plausible outcomes from 1.5 to 4 degrees of warming.

On the basis of this unsettled scientific question, politicians and most of the pressure groups that surround them are furiously insistent that any answer to the question other than ‘definitely’ is vile heresy motivated by self-interest, and is so disgraceful as to require stamping out, prosecution as a crime against humanity, investigation under laws designed to catch racketeering by organized crime syndicates, or possibly the suspension of democracy. For yes, that is what has been repeatedly proposed by respected and senior figures in the climate debate.


Antarctic weight gain and other news

Posted: November 1, 2015 by Andrew in Analysis

imageAfter years of being convinced that the Antarctic is melting away, NASA now says it’s been gaining ice. NASA warns that this
is not necessarily good news.

The latest news from NASA on the state of the Antarctic

“According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.”

That’s good news then? Not so fast there is a sting in the tail.


Swanage met station

Posted: October 19, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation

Tim writes, on the way back home from a visit to a secluded bay I visited the small Swanage met site.

Swanage weather station.

This is a report, not a site citicism, it’s fair enough for what it is.

Arriving late in the day as the sun touches the local horizon is a bad time for photography, add in exhaustion from earlier, this was going to be a brief look.

The Swanage Met Office AWS reports hourly temperature and humidity, probably rainfall. As a station it is not synoptic, will be based on an old seaside town site, hence some furniture in the enclosure which has nothing to do with the Met Office.


Figure 1 Swanage met station looking SE, this is two joined images .

The site is about 30 ft above sea level on an unstable sloping terrace then with a steep slope to a road, promenade, and sandy beach with breakwaters. Note the low trees in the background, have that windswept look. The land here is sheltered by a ridge from the south-west gales (setting sun is touching the ridge). The tree there implies a more southerly strength and on-shore summer breezes.


Solar power tower, Spain [image credit: Network]

Solar power tower, Spain [image credit: Network]

Energy blog Master Resource analyses the future of world energy generation. Several scenarios are considered, but the bottom line is that the the idea of renewables as a primary energy source can never be made to work.

Wind, Solar Mirage

Regarding the power market, wind and solar will actually play a minor, even inconsequential, role in reducing emissions by 2035. Worse still for those that believe human-caused CO2 emission are responsible for disastrous climate change, other reasonable options now available will not have a timely effect.

Adaptation, and using wealth diverted from inappropriate energy policy, is a key public-policy takeaway from this series.


I’ve been invited to speak at the 2015 ICG starting in Prague tomorrow. This promises to be really interesting judging by the abstracts. Apparently, some organisations which usually attend have boycotted the event because our group has been invited to speak about the unethical behaviour of the IPCC and Copernicus-the innovative science unpublishers. Here’s the announcement.


October 9 (Friday) to 19 (Monday) 2015 in 3 segments:
a) October 9 – 11 in Prague (Krystal, Prague 6–Veleslavín, José Martího 2)
b) October 12 – 16 at Příbram (DIAMO, street 28. října 184)
c) October 16 – 19 in Prague (Krystal, Prague 6–Veleslavín, José Martího 2)
the centre and hotel Krystal is in the walking distance of a new subway station Nádraží
Veleslavín (green line A)

The Conference will be arranged on behalf of the Working Group for Geoethics of the Association of Geoscientists for International Development (AGID) as the only International Conference to the subject of Geoethics in the world in this year. The participation at the Conference is open to any person really interested in the topic.

The financial policy of the Conference is based on principles of alternative solidary economics. The exceptionally low IRREVERSIBLE paid fees have made it possible to assure relatively good access to anybody included retired people or students. In cases of special interest an individual arrangement was realized.


Met Office does claiming more extreme

Posted: September 25, 2015 by tchannon in alarmism, Analysis, weather

Collecting valid data is hard. Paul Homewood has highlighted a Met Office report for 2014, produced it seems September 2015. If that is true, no rush, get it right.


— From State of the UK climate 2014

ImageFigure 1. Difference between two datasets of more or less the same thing. The red linear trend line is hinting there is dataset drift.

Oh yes definitely more severe weather..

Snag, this is Met Office data against Met Office data.


Clickable met site UK map

Posted: September 22, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation

This article is of minor interest so no header image, save front page space.

The daily met Office site thumbnail plots I do includes a map of the UK showing the site numbers and locations. The red location cross now has a hot spot and can be clicked, taking you to a Bing maps view. Accuracy varies, not all sites have known exact locations, some have no good image, and some have disagreements Bing / Google.

Site 3772, Heathrow, initialises to showing a 747 on the runway. Click once on the + and it moves in to a superb view of the met site. Arrows allow rotation.


Rainfall variation during a year

Posted: September 17, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, climate, weather

A post by Paul Homewood expressed surprise at comment by Philip Eden in his Sunday Telegraph newspaper column about August rainfall. Eden missed a trick, reality is more interesting. I’m responding here with a lengthy item.


How rainfall varies over the year by area for a few regional datasets. Includes data from 1770 to date. (data is provided if the details matter)

Eden is I think pushing reality in finding subset areas where August is the wettest month. Read Paul’s article here.

As I read it autumn storms originate in the tropical Atlantic bringing water which has infamy[*]. As the Atlantic cools there are fewer storms and colder air. As the year progresses into what passes as summer airflow may bring warm wet air from the south, continental Europe drying out, more infamy. We have an Indian summer lull, the Atlantic calls.


QBO rough analysis

Posted: September 13, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, wind

This is a quick rough and ready analysis of an QBO data since Paul Vaughan asked. Here are all the things you never wanted to know.

QBO ( Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) is a strange entity, wind direction alternates. The data is an index, artificial computation and in this case part of a reanalysis. This article might add some insight

A problem I see with simple data such as at one pressure level and location is the many other changes over time. Perhaps the pressure level should vary a little. It’s a multi-dimension entity anyway.

I’m taking it as-is with no more comment.


Figure 1, straight plot of monthly data, which runs from 1948. No units are given so assume metres/second. Data used

The author has several bespoke software works useful for analysis, in C, unpublished so reproducing this work would be difficult.

On considering the data the period before 1970 is ignored. There is no information on technology changes or data reliability.


[update: Tyler Robinson has replied in comments  — Tim /update]

Talkshop contributor ‘Cementafriend’ has emailed me with an interesting critique of parts the 2013 Robinson & Catling paper Common 0.1 bar tropopause in thick atmospheres set by pressure-dependent infrared transparency 

. He is an engineer and tells me that:

I have had actual experience with combustion and heat transfer. I have designed burners for coal, gas, oil and waste fuel materials. I have measured CO2 in exhaust gases, down coal mines and even in the atmosphere.

The presence of OH in the atmosphere is due to the reaction CH4 +O3 > CH3OH +O2 (of course other organics can also be oxidised by O3 but the quantity of these is tiny).
The reaction claimed CH4 +OH> CH3 +H2O is not correct. CH3OH (methanol or methyl alcohol sometimes known as wood alcohol which is poisonous) can exist as a molecule. In water this can form the ions CH3+ and OH-.
CH3OH is highly soluble in water at ocean/lake surfaces and also in drops of water in clouds. However, there is little O3 in the atmosphere up to 11,000 km and that is why CH4 persists in the atmosphere now at around 1.7 ppm.

It seems that just as there are “Climate Scientists” making up false relations in physics, thermodynamics & heat transfer (luckily they have not touched mass transfer), there also seem to be “astrophysicists” and “astrochemists” making up new chemistry & reaction kinetics.


imageWillie Soon, Ronan Connolly & Michael Connolly have reviewed the ongoing solar variability debate, constructed and assessed a new Northern Hemisphere rural temperature trend and find a close match with the Scafetta & Wilson update to the Hoyte & Schatten TSI reconstruction.


A commenter on another site with the handle ‘Agent009’ has come up with an interesting formula for calculating the environmental lapse rate on three solar system bodies with atmospheres. Talkshoppers might offer some ideas as to why it works. H/T to Stuart ‘Oldbrew’ for flagging this one up.

I’ve been trying to solve a puzzle… dry adiabatic lapse rate is normally calculated as following:
Γ = g·M/cp
where Γ is lapse rate, g is surface gravity acceleration, M is mole mass and cp is molar heat capacity.
However, if you calculate this for Earth, you arrive at 9.77 K/km, but actual environmental lapse rate, as defined in the ISA, is 6.49 K/km, which is about 9.77 * 0.665. So, I decided to take a look at how this works on Venus and Titan – the only two other worlds in the Sol System that actually have tropospheres.
On Venus (assuming tropopause at 55 km), the average lapse rate is about 7.9 K/km, but the above formula gives you 10.46 K/km, which means that you must multiply the result by 0.756 to get the actual value. On Titan (assuming tropopause at 42 km), actual average lapse rate appears to be around 0.5 K/km, but predicted lapse rate is 1.26 K/km – which gives you the coefficient 0.427. So I’ve been trying to figure what this mysterious coefficient depends upon – and, I think, I’ve found it. The following expression gives you almost exactly those numbers (using SI units, that is):

³√(12·g·M·(1/R – 1/cp))
where R is the ideal gas constant.

This article is part of preparing the way for later revelations about instrumentation defects.



Figure 1 (upper), Figure 2 (lower) computed mean insolation for horizontal surface at this exact location and weather parameters, no cloud.

Figure 1 (upper), Experimental work[1] showing nearly daily temperature variation from expected, specifically designed to exclude diurnal but include detail variation at the fastest scale feasible. Time graticule at 10 days, data points at 12 hours. Surprisingly the July 1st hot period has vanished. Plots of other sites show a similar effect. The most frequent warm and cool periods of weather are brief and readily seen.

This computation will produce different values from the mean values computed from thermometer minimum and maximum data because data shape at other times is taken into account, min/max does not. The filter used is also windowed, leakage is negligible.


This paper needs discussion.

The Hockey Schtick has an article up on a just published 69 page paper.


The above comparisons indicate that Eq. (10b) rather accurately reproduces the observed variation of mean surface temperatures across a wide range of planetary environments characterized in terms of solar irradiance (from 1.5 W m-2 to 2,602 W m-2), total atmospheric pressure (from near vacuum to 9,300 kPa), and greenhouse-gas concentrations (from 0.0% to over 96% per volume).

Now rip the paper apart. What if anything about it is safe?


Guernsey weather station

Posted: August 22, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation, weather

Few days ago I noted new sites flash up on screen as a daily weather capture took place.

Guernsey is the second largest of the Channel Islands, a group just off the French coast beside the Cherbourg peninsular.

Met Office Datapoint have added Guernsey, Jersey is already in the data. This is surprising they are similar islands, close geographically, climatically similar.

As usual the Met Office only give crude co-ordinates and no other information. Looks like it is at the airport, as is the Jersey station. On looking I learnt there is

Guernsey Met Office
A division of the States of Guernsey Public Services Department

A further surprise is the 2014 Annual Weather Report (58 pages), a very good work, refreshing in this age of newspeak and excesses.


The Lihou Island Automated Met Station received a major service and upgrade in the summer. The station is very important in that it measures temperatures in a completely unspoilt environment. The presence of the Met Observatory at Guernsey Airport means that the airfield provides the official temperature record for the island. Since the Met Office moved there in 1947, however, the land use of the airfield and the surrounding area has changed markedly with a notable increase in the acreage of tarmac, concrete, buildings and other man made surfaces. This land use change results in the formation of an “airport heat island” a phenomenon observed around the world where areas of concrete, roads and runways heat up on days with strong sunlight and then slowly release their heat through the night.

Although the Guernsey Airport heat island is small when averaged over the course of a year and only raises average temperatures by a fraction of a degree, it is an unwelcome variable that makes it harder to accurately detect temperature changes caused by genuine climate change. The Lihou record is therefore invaluable in that it measures temperature in an area where no significant development has been undertaken or will be allowed to take place. Over many years, it should therefore be possible to compare the Lihou temperature record with that of Guernsey Airport and gain an understanding of how land use changes on and around the airport are altering our temperature records.

Google or Bing aerial pictures show the airport is a building site (Google Earth timeline is useful for this). A probable meteorological enclosure, near the control tower, seems to have moved quite recently, to where, no idea. Possibly the Guernsey Met Office have a separate site.