Archive for the ‘Analysis’ Category

I’ve been invited to speak at the 2015 ICG starting in Prague tomorrow. This promises to be really interesting judging by the abstracts. Apparently, some organisations which usually attend have boycotted the event because our group has been invited to speak about the unethical behaviour of the IPCC and Copernicus-the innovative science unpublishers. Here’s the announcement.


October 9 (Friday) to 19 (Monday) 2015 in 3 segments:
a) October 9 – 11 in Prague (Krystal, Prague 6–Veleslavín, José Martího 2)
b) October 12 – 16 at Příbram (DIAMO, street 28. října 184)
c) October 16 – 19 in Prague (Krystal, Prague 6–Veleslavín, José Martího 2)
the centre and hotel Krystal is in the walking distance of a new subway station Nádraží
Veleslavín (green line A)

The Conference will be arranged on behalf of the Working Group for Geoethics of the Association of Geoscientists for International Development (AGID) as the only International Conference to the subject of Geoethics in the world in this year. The participation at the Conference is open to any person really interested in the topic.

The financial policy of the Conference is based on principles of alternative solidary economics. The exceptionally low IRREVERSIBLE paid fees have made it possible to assure relatively good access to anybody included retired people or students. In cases of special interest an individual arrangement was realized.


Met Office does claiming more extreme

Posted: September 25, 2015 by tchannon in alarmism, Analysis, weather

Collecting valid data is hard. Paul Homewood has highlighted a Met Office report for 2014, produced it seems September 2015. If that is true, no rush, get it right.


— From State of the UK climate 2014

ImageFigure 1. Difference between two datasets of more or less the same thing. The red linear trend line is hinting there is dataset drift.

Oh yes definitely more severe weather..

Snag, this is Met Office data against Met Office data.


Clickable met site UK map

Posted: September 22, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation

This article is of minor interest so no header image, save front page space.

The daily met Office site thumbnail plots I do includes a map of the UK showing the site numbers and locations. The red location cross now has a hot spot and can be clicked, taking you to a Bing maps view. Accuracy varies, not all sites have known exact locations, some have no good image, and some have disagreements Bing / Google.

Site 3772, Heathrow, initialises to showing a 747 on the runway. Click once on the + and it moves in to a superb view of the met site. Arrows allow rotation.


Rainfall variation during a year

Posted: September 17, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, climate, weather

A post by Paul Homewood expressed surprise at comment by Philip Eden in his Sunday Telegraph newspaper column about August rainfall. Eden missed a trick, reality is more interesting. I’m responding here with a lengthy item.


How rainfall varies over the year by area for a few regional datasets. Includes data from 1770 to date. (data is provided if the details matter)

Eden is I think pushing reality in finding subset areas where August is the wettest month. Read Paul’s article here.

As I read it autumn storms originate in the tropical Atlantic bringing water which has infamy[*]. As the Atlantic cools there are fewer storms and colder air. As the year progresses into what passes as summer airflow may bring warm wet air from the south, continental Europe drying out, more infamy. We have an Indian summer lull, the Atlantic calls.


QBO rough analysis

Posted: September 13, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, wind

This is a quick rough and ready analysis of an QBO data since Paul Vaughan asked. Here are all the things you never wanted to know.

QBO ( Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) is a strange entity, wind direction alternates. The data is an index, artificial computation and in this case part of a reanalysis. This article might add some insight

A problem I see with simple data such as at one pressure level and location is the many other changes over time. Perhaps the pressure level should vary a little. It’s a multi-dimension entity anyway.

I’m taking it as-is with no more comment.


Figure 1, straight plot of monthly data, which runs from 1948. No units are given so assume metres/second. Data used

The author has several bespoke software works useful for analysis, in C, unpublished so reproducing this work would be difficult.

On considering the data the period before 1970 is ignored. There is no information on technology changes or data reliability.


[update: Tyler Robinson has replied in comments  — Tim /update]

Talkshop contributor ‘Cementafriend’ has emailed me with an interesting critique of parts the 2013 Robinson & Catling paper Common 0.1 bar tropopause in thick atmospheres set by pressure-dependent infrared transparency 

. He is an engineer and tells me that:

I have had actual experience with combustion and heat transfer. I have designed burners for coal, gas, oil and waste fuel materials. I have measured CO2 in exhaust gases, down coal mines and even in the atmosphere.

The presence of OH in the atmosphere is due to the reaction CH4 +O3 > CH3OH +O2 (of course other organics can also be oxidised by O3 but the quantity of these is tiny).
The reaction claimed CH4 +OH> CH3 +H2O is not correct. CH3OH (methanol or methyl alcohol sometimes known as wood alcohol which is poisonous) can exist as a molecule. In water this can form the ions CH3+ and OH-.
CH3OH is highly soluble in water at ocean/lake surfaces and also in drops of water in clouds. However, there is little O3 in the atmosphere up to 11,000 km and that is why CH4 persists in the atmosphere now at around 1.7 ppm.

It seems that just as there are “Climate Scientists” making up false relations in physics, thermodynamics & heat transfer (luckily they have not touched mass transfer), there also seem to be “astrophysicists” and “astrochemists” making up new chemistry & reaction kinetics.


imageWillie Soon, Ronan Connolly & Michael Connolly have reviewed the ongoing solar variability debate, constructed and assessed a new Northern Hemisphere rural temperature trend and find a close match with the Scafetta & Wilson update to the Hoyte & Schatten TSI reconstruction.


A commenter on another site with the handle ‘Agent009’ has come up with an interesting formula for calculating the environmental lapse rate on three solar system bodies with atmospheres. Talkshoppers might offer some ideas as to why it works. H/T to Stuart ‘Oldbrew’ for flagging this one up.

I’ve been trying to solve a puzzle… dry adiabatic lapse rate is normally calculated as following:
Γ = g·M/cp
where Γ is lapse rate, g is surface gravity acceleration, M is mole mass and cp is molar heat capacity.
However, if you calculate this for Earth, you arrive at 9.77 K/km, but actual environmental lapse rate, as defined in the ISA, is 6.49 K/km, which is about 9.77 * 0.665. So, I decided to take a look at how this works on Venus and Titan – the only two other worlds in the Sol System that actually have tropospheres.
On Venus (assuming tropopause at 55 km), the average lapse rate is about 7.9 K/km, but the above formula gives you 10.46 K/km, which means that you must multiply the result by 0.756 to get the actual value. On Titan (assuming tropopause at 42 km), actual average lapse rate appears to be around 0.5 K/km, but predicted lapse rate is 1.26 K/km – which gives you the coefficient 0.427. So I’ve been trying to figure what this mysterious coefficient depends upon – and, I think, I’ve found it. The following expression gives you almost exactly those numbers (using SI units, that is):

³√(12·g·M·(1/R – 1/cp))
where R is the ideal gas constant.

This article is part of preparing the way for later revelations about instrumentation defects.



Figure 1 (upper), Figure 2 (lower) computed mean insolation for horizontal surface at this exact location and weather parameters, no cloud.

Figure 1 (upper), Experimental work[1] showing nearly daily temperature variation from expected, specifically designed to exclude diurnal but include detail variation at the fastest scale feasible. Time graticule at 10 days, data points at 12 hours. Surprisingly the July 1st hot period has vanished. Plots of other sites show a similar effect. The most frequent warm and cool periods of weather are brief and readily seen.

This computation will produce different values from the mean values computed from thermometer minimum and maximum data because data shape at other times is taken into account, min/max does not. The filter used is also windowed, leakage is negligible.


This paper needs discussion.

The Hockey Schtick has an article up on a just published 69 page paper.


The above comparisons indicate that Eq. (10b) rather accurately reproduces the observed variation of mean surface temperatures across a wide range of planetary environments characterized in terms of solar irradiance (from 1.5 W m-2 to 2,602 W m-2), total atmospheric pressure (from near vacuum to 9,300 kPa), and greenhouse-gas concentrations (from 0.0% to over 96% per volume).

Now rip the paper apart. What if anything about it is safe?


Guernsey weather station

Posted: August 22, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation, weather

Few days ago I noted new sites flash up on screen as a daily weather capture took place.

Guernsey is the second largest of the Channel Islands, a group just off the French coast beside the Cherbourg peninsular.

Met Office Datapoint have added Guernsey, Jersey is already in the data. This is surprising they are similar islands, close geographically, climatically similar.

As usual the Met Office only give crude co-ordinates and no other information. Looks like it is at the airport, as is the Jersey station. On looking I learnt there is

Guernsey Met Office
A division of the States of Guernsey Public Services Department

A further surprise is the 2014 Annual Weather Report (58 pages), a very good work, refreshing in this age of newspeak and excesses.


The Lihou Island Automated Met Station received a major service and upgrade in the summer. The station is very important in that it measures temperatures in a completely unspoilt environment. The presence of the Met Observatory at Guernsey Airport means that the airfield provides the official temperature record for the island. Since the Met Office moved there in 1947, however, the land use of the airfield and the surrounding area has changed markedly with a notable increase in the acreage of tarmac, concrete, buildings and other man made surfaces. This land use change results in the formation of an “airport heat island” a phenomenon observed around the world where areas of concrete, roads and runways heat up on days with strong sunlight and then slowly release their heat through the night.

Although the Guernsey Airport heat island is small when averaged over the course of a year and only raises average temperatures by a fraction of a degree, it is an unwelcome variable that makes it harder to accurately detect temperature changes caused by genuine climate change. The Lihou record is therefore invaluable in that it measures temperature in an area where no significant development has been undertaken or will be allowed to take place. Over many years, it should therefore be possible to compare the Lihou temperature record with that of Guernsey Airport and gain an understanding of how land use changes on and around the airport are altering our temperature records.

Google or Bing aerial pictures show the airport is a building site (Google Earth timeline is useful for this). A probable meteorological enclosure, near the control tower, seems to have moved quite recently, to where, no idea. Possibly the Guernsey Met Office have a separate site.


Solar — Hide The Decline

Posted: August 11, 2015 by tchannon in Accountability, Analysis, Incompetence

Couple of days ago oldbrew posted an article highlighting an article at, one thing leads to another


Figure 1, Annotated copy of plot. from mis-rendering web page where mis-render covered the time scale.


Figure 2, screen capture from web browser showing misrendering hiding the time scale and that tripped “why?”

The caption makes claim of a comparison but makes no mention of omitting recent data which does differ between the two versions (see fig 6). Additionally the plot start is 1749 as the monthly time series but the data plotted is the annual time series not the monthly.


Figure 3, reproduction of the dubious work using WDC-SILO data except showing all the data, less the very early part as above.


The 'before' version of sunspot numbers [Credit: Wikipedia]

The ‘before’ version of sunspot numbers [Credit: Wikipedia]

This result has been at least half-expected ever since the ‘revision’ of sunspot numbers was announced. The phrase ‘desired outcome’ springs to mind.

The Sunspot Number is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change, reports It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries. The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity.

The analysis, its results and its implications for climate research were made public today at a press briefing at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) XXIX General Assembly, currently taking place in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA.


HADCRUT Cool The Past Yet Again

Posted: August 5, 2015 by oldbrew in alarmism, Dataset, MET office


The longer the so-called pause – the new normal? – goes on, the more popular ‘cooling the past’ becomes with state-funded organisations like the Met Office. Check the satellite records.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

HADCRUT have just released their latest version 4.4, and guess what? Yes, the past has been cooled again!

This is is how things have changed since version 4.3.

View original 133 more words

Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]

Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]

We have highlighted this before, but the period just keeps getting longer, much to the relief of many U.S. citizens no doubt. reports: It has been 117 months since a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or above, has made landfall in the continental United States, according to 2015 data from the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This is the longest span of time in which no major hurricane has struck the mainland U.S. in NOAA hurricane records going back to 1851.


July frost

Posted: July 9, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

Wierding continues


Morning of 9th July 2015 the Katesbridge Met Office site reported a frost, flat lining air temperature close to 0.0C which arguably means frost was forming on the Stevenson screen. Whether this was an air frost, don’t know. Dew formation produces a less clear flat but is not usually clear in hourly data.

Notoriously cold still air site, convective cooling, no wind. Sun was up by 5AM but there are low hills thereabouts.


More notably temperatures were widely below 10C (50F) in Northern Ireland, England and Scotland. Where there was a wind, a good example St Bees Head where it was off sea, 11C, Arctic air, reaching right across, Bridlington where the screen is almost on the east coast foreshore was also cool.


HadUKP precipitation, nothing to see here

Posted: July 7, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

This little work rather counters the headless chickens preparing for a French cooking pot.


Figure 1, CRU/Hadley/Met Office precipitation series starting 1766, just one in the HadUKP series. Good news, there is nothing more than weather noise in any of the 11 region series. All bundled in this PDF. (2MB)
For number watchers, Jan 2014 came 11th wettest.

This note is on their web page

We are currently planning a project to merge the HadUKP series with the England and Wales Rainfall series described above. The outcome of this project will be a single historical rainfall series for the UK.

I suppose that makes sense yet neither series is IMO satisfactory on geography. The UK has a variety of weather regimes. Merging regimes has the effect of mixing evidence where average is not very useful. Is there a better solution?


The Met Office have some explaining to do.

Why 7 minutes after a claimed hottest ever did the same place publish a safety record at least 1.2C lower? It was lower 7km, away at Northholt and all the surrounding places. Muttering about thunder won’t wash either because CAVOK says no, if it is correct. Plume from France? It was much colder to the south, Met Office data says so. Fohn? Ah yes the snow capped Sussex Alps.


Image from OGIMET, no link given to protect private server from excess traffic.

Someone please cross check me in case this is mistaken.

  • 13:20 it is 31C
  • 13:50 it is 35C
  • 14:20 it is 35C
  • 14:50 it is 34C

Perhaps aeronatutical services use a different thermometer but the Met Office site is an WMO synoptic station. Why pay for the Met Office site if it isn’t used? If it is a site there for accurate climatic recording why such a poor location? (see other articles)

The 11 figure is dewpoint, also in contradiction.

Then there is the matter of Met Office Support giving the author the runaround since January over wrong meteorological hourly data emitted by the Met Office servers. The similarity is curious.


This work is intended to give insight into the climate of the UK.


Figure 1, Sunshine and temperature relationship

At first sight the above might seem strange but is logical. Regional effect can be seen, particularly the Atlantic maritime, eg. East vs. West Scotland, a contrast with the dryer East Anglia and NE England.

The underlying data is a heavily processed version of Met Office areal series by the author, all results 1929 through June 2015. Final data section is linked to various plots and data.


A squint at Met Office HadNMAT2

Posted: June 25, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis

Given 28 gridded datasets and a variety of novel things to try, I be flummoxed. Try this

The new dataset kid on the block, seems to have appeared 6th June is Met Office Hadley Centre HadNMAT V2, nighttime marine air temperature. Grided at 5 degrees.


Figure 1, an experimental plot from data generated by alpha software. So far as I know this is correct. The main graphic is a hovmoller plot intending to show how the contribution to a global temperature computation has varied spatial with time.