Beer faces unbitter future due to climate change, study claims

Another day, another manufactured climate scare! This time it features a popular (in the UK and Ireland at least) style of beer, but before crying bitter tears, note the last sentence of the article: ‘Brewers can also try to modify their methods to adapt to the reduced bitterness in hops’.
– – –
Climate change threatens the cultivation in Europe of aromatic hops which gives beer its bitterness, according to a study published Tuesday in Nature Communications.

European varieties of hops are prized and used by brewers around the world, but rising temperatures and less rain are reducing yields and the concentration of the compounds that provide beer its refreshing tartness, says Phys.org.

The researchers observed this trend by analyzing data from five sites in the Czech Republic, Germany, and Slovakia, which along with Poland are the primary hops growers in Europe, study co-author Miroslav Trnka said.

Study investigates primary drivers of observed warming: challenges of inadequate data

Urban heat island effect

The study, entitled The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data (August 2023), has 40 authors, some of whom are regular contributors to the ‘climate debate’ both in published papers and elsewhere. It takes a critical look at recent IPCC reports and summaries, especially the quality or otherwise of some of the data used to support its assertions. It suggests ways some of these issues could/should be addressed. Below is the abstract and the closing summary.
– – –
Abstract
A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century.

Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century.

This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases.

Study attributes Tibetan Empire collapse in 9th century to climate change

Historical reconstruction of the Tibetan Empire’s extent among surrounding empires at its peak ca. 800 CE [Credit: Chen et al. 2023]

The ‘abrupt’ climate change found by the researchers looks like a prelude to the Medieval Warm Period. Even without examining any technical details it’s clear from the data that the climate of the region did change. Interestingly, the aftermath of the period of change looks a lot like the Medieval Warm Period (see here, under ‘severe dry and warm’), which Wikipedia thinks ‘was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that lasted from c. 950 to c. 1250’. The North Atlantic and Tibet are far apart, obviously.
– – –
The Tibetan Empire was the world’s highest elevation empire, sitting over 4,000m above sea level, and thrived during 618 to 877 CE, says Phys.org.

Home to an estimated 10 million people, it spanned approximately 4.6 million km² across East and Central Asia, extending into northern India.

Considering the hostile conditions for populations to expand, including hypoxia where oxygen concentrations are 40% lower than at sea level, it is incredible that the empire flourished.

However, its collapse in the 9th century is not fully understood, with new research published in Quaternary Science Reviews aiming to untangle the role climate may have played in the end of a great civilization.

New research looks at ‘stalled trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice loss since 2007’

Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca]

Not the often-quoted ‘rapid decline’ any more then. But what’s behind the stalled trend? The researchers point to a climate cycle known as the Arctic dipole, first proposed in 2006, which ‘reverses itself’, and should (they say) be about to do so again. Are declining solar cycles accompanied by greatly reduced geomagnetic activity (see here) in the same recent years another factor, or just coincidental?
– – –
New research by an international team of scientists explains what’s behind a stalled trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice loss since 2007, says Phys.org.

The findings indicate that stronger declines in sea ice will occur when an atmospheric feature known as the Arctic dipole reverses itself in its recurring cycle.

The many environmental responses to the Arctic dipole are described in a paper published online today in the journal Science. This analysis helps explain how North Atlantic water influences Arctic Ocean climate.

Scientists call it Atlantification.

Wavelet footprints – The Climate Clock

Gas giants of the solar system [image credit: Wikipedia]

Wavelet transforms reveal solar system footprints in climate time series, says Prof. Harald Yndestad. He explains how TSI (total solar irradiance) has a mean growth from 1700 to 2014. We believe the ideas here have links with this recent Talkshop post. (For the full technical discussion and wavelet examples see the linked article. Some extracts here.).
– – –
In the mid-1980s, the mathematician Yves Mayer from the University of Marseille and the petroleum engineer Jaean Morlet worked with the analysis of data from petroleum surveys at Elf-Aquitaine, writes
Harald Yndestad @ The Climate Clock.

In their efforts to find better methods for frequency analysis, they rediscovered a set of a new type of transformations which they called Wavelets.

The wavelet transform solved some of the weaknesses of the Fourier transform. It required less computing power; it was possible to identify period and phase relations in time-series, and non-stationary periodic variations in nature.

Hexagons on Mars: New Evidence of an Environment Conducive to the Emergence of Life

Self-portrait of NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover [image credit: NASA/JPL @ Wikipedia]

Remote control geology at work.
– – –
Using data from NASA’s Curiosity rover, scientists have discovered patterns on Mars that provide evidence of a cyclical climate similar to that of Earth.

This major discovery opens up new prospects for research into the origin of life, says SciTechDaily.

The results of the study, which was conducted by scientists at the CNRS, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, and Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, with the participation of CNES, were published on August 9, 2023, in the journal Nature.

Scientists wrestle with ‘unknown force’ acting on particles

Muon g-2 building (white and orange) at Fermilab [image credit: Z22 @ Wikipedia]

A clash of observation and basic science theory looms. The BBC tries to sound positive about it.
– – –
Scientists near Chicago say they may be getting closer to discovering the existence of a new force of nature, says BBC News.

They have found more evidence that sub-atomic particles, called muons, are not behaving in the way predicted by the current theory of sub-atomic physics.

Scientists believe that an unknown force could be acting on the muons.

More data will be needed to confirm these results, but if they are verified, it could mark the beginning of a revolution in physics.

Record-Breaking Detection of Solar Photons

The HAWC detector (2014) [image credit: Jordanagoodman @ Wikipedia]

In a related Phys.org article a researcher says: “The sun is more surprising than we knew. We thought we had this star figured out, but that’s not the case.” But it has long been known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down, and vice versa.
– – –
Observations over the past decade or so have shown that the Sun emits many more gamma rays at GeV energies than is expected from modeling, says APS Physics.

Now a collaboration operating the High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory in Mexico show that this gamma-ray excess extends up to TeV energies [1].

This finding has implications for our understanding of both stellar atmospheres and astroparticle physics.

Shoppers desert High Street after record rain storms

Some UK areas had their wettest July on record, despite media headlines full of ‘global boiling’ and suchlike alarmist psychobabble attempting to blame any unusually warm weather on humans. Even the Met Office had to admit it was ‘more like autumn than summer’. What a difference a year makes; after last year’s July record the Met Office proclaimed that ‘The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence’. This July 20°C days or less were closer to the reality for many, but at least June was generally sunnier and warmer than usual.
– – –
The number of people heading out to the shops fell for the first July in 14 years as the UK grappled with one of the wettest months on record, says BBC News.

Overall footfall was down by 0.3% in the first drop in July since 2009, said retail analysis firm Springboard.

High Streets were hit hardest but shopping centres and retail parks got a boost in visitor numbers.

Earlier and earlier high-Arctic spring replaced by ‘extreme year-to-year variation’, say researchers

Still waiting

This observation doesn’t correlate with monotonic CO2 rise data. Apparently we’re left looking at ‘tremendous natural climate variability’, which doesn’t sound much like the claims and expectations of prevalent IPCC-type theories. The researchers say ‘temperature increases have stalled’, and ‘the previously observed trend has disappeared completely’. Little wonder then that some Arctic alarmists have been less shrill in recent years — their trend melted away.
– – –
About 15 years ago, researchers reported that the timing of spring in high-Arctic Greenland had advanced at some of the fastest rates of change ever seen anywhere in the world.

But, according to new evidence, that earlier pattern has since been completely erased.

Instead of coming earlier and earlier, it seems the timing of Arctic spring is now driven by tremendous climate variability with drastic differences from one year to the next.

“As scientists we are obliged to revisit previous work to see whether the knowledge obtained at that time still holds,” says Niels Martin Schmidt of Aarhus University in Denmark.

Heatwave hysteria – Net Zero Watch

Credit: nationalreview.com

Media headbangers seem to be in a constant race to the bottom to try and get the most attention-grabbing nonsensical climate alarm headlines out of the latest short-term weather phenomenon, whatever it may be. If truth is a casualty, they may fail to notice.
– – –
Climate change extremism and the tendency to alarm first and analyse later is destroying clear and thoughtful environmental reporting, says David Whitehouse @ Net Zero Watch.

A good example of this is the European heatwave hysteria which was started by journalists confusing ground and air temperature.

It began with a report by the European Space Agency that referred to measured air temperatures above Europe.

The point of the press release was that it was very hot.

The Pacific slope of Peru is greening, say Cambridge researchers – but they don’t like it?

Andes mountain range

We’re told ‘the exact cause or resulting consequences of this greening are not known’, but the media spin says ‘it’s not good news’. The unhealthy obsession with climate gloom and doom in certain quarters has spilled over here. The massive and ongoing greening trend is decribed as ‘a warning sign, like the canary in the mine’ (which of course expires). Really?
– – –
Research led by physicists and geographers at the University of Cambridge has unveiled some large-scale changes in the vegetation in the South American Andes which may have dramatic impact on the environment and ecosystems of the region, says Phys.org.

Analyzing satellite data spanning the past 20 years, the research team based at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge examined how vegetation has been changing along the Pacific coast of Peru and northern Chile.

This area is known for its unique and delicate arid and semi-arid environments.

Beware the habitual El Niño hype – Net Zero Watch

Not hard to imagine so-called climate reporters with fingers hovering over the alarm button, ready to press it as soon as the first hint of an El Niño is mentioned somewhere.
– – –
The world is once again in the grip of a semi-regular climate alarm, says David Whitehouse @ Net Zero Watch.

I’m not referring to the latest onset of the El Niño cycle, declared in action on July 4th by the United Nations, but the amplified rhetoric about the pace and scale of warming temperatures that always accompanies such El Niño periods.

Do you remember what happened last time we had a record El Niño in 2015/16? Global temperatures increased rapidly – as they do during such an event – and, according to some, it was full speed ahead to a runaway thermal apocalypse … until global temperatures started to fall again.

Arctic Ice in Surplus June 2023

‘
‘
Data shows Northern Hemisphere ice extent remains greater than the 17 year average for this particular month.

Science Matters

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 151 (end of May) through yesterday June 30, 2023  As usual, the Pacific basins Bering and Okhotsk (far left) became ice-free and are no longer included in these updates. Years vary as to which regions retain more or less ice.  For example, this year Hudson Bay (bottom right) lost half its ice by June 30, earlier than average.  That is a shallow basin and can quickly lose its ice in coming days.  Despite this early melting, the NH Ice extent remains greater than the 17 year average.

The graph below compares the June monthly ice extents 2007 to 2023 and compared to the SII 17 year average.

Clearly June ice appears as a plateau, and most years MASIE shows greater extents than SII, with differences of only a few 100k km2.  Previously 2019-20 were in deficit to average, but June 2022-3 have…

View original post 734 more words

Record Renewables Growth Fails To Cut Global Fossil Fuel Share of 82%

Fossil fuels are consistent at 82% of the global energy cake, so to speak, but the cake is getting bigger. Someone wails that ‘overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again’ as the so-called Paris climate agreement fades further into irrelevance. Time to stop clinging to pipedreams and admit realities.
– – –
Record increases in solar and wind installations in 2022 failed to cut into the massive 82% share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption, says OilPrice.com, amid turbulent energy markets and energy security concerns, the annual Statistical Review of World Energy showed on Monday.

Moreover, despite the record growth of global solar and wind capacity additions last year, emissions rose again, to a new record high, and further put the world off track to the Paris Agreement targets, said the report, published by the Energy Institute (EI) and partners KPMG and Kearney, which earlier this year took over the publishing of one of the industry’s most closely-watched reports from BP that had published it for the prior 71 years.

The latest report showed that primary energy demand growth slowed in 2022, increasing by 1.1%, compared to 5.5% growth in 2021, and taking it to around 3% above the 2019 pre-COVID level.

Full article here.

Effect of volcanic eruptions significantly underestimated in climate projections, study shows

Volcanic eruption

The idea proposed here of climate model forecasts becoming ‘more robust’ by including smaller effects depends on them being robust to some degree in the first place, which is open to question given their output to date.
– – –
Researchers have found that the cooling effect that volcanic eruptions have on Earth’s surface temperature is likely underestimated by a factor of two, and potentially as much as a factor of four, in standard climate projections, says Phys.org.

While this effect is far from enough to offset the effects of global temperature rise caused by human activity [Talkshop comment – unsupported assertion], the researchers, led by the University of Cambridge, say that small-magnitude eruptions are responsible for as much as half of all the sulfur gases emitted into the upper atmosphere by volcanoes.

The results, reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggest that improving the representation of volcanic eruptions of all magnitudes will in turn make climate projections more robust.

Study: ‘Warm ice age’ changed climate cycles

Credit: Robert A. Rohde @ Wikipedia

Re. the well-known 100,000 year problem, the researchers propose new climate-related evidence for ‘the shift from the 40,000-year cycles to the 100,000-year cycles we experience today’.
– – –
Approximately 700,000 years ago, a “warm ice age” permanently changed the climate cycles on Earth, says Phys.org.

Contemporaneous with this exceptionally warm and moist period, the polar glaciers greatly expanded.

A European research team including Earth scientists from Heidelberg University used recently acquired geological data in combination with computer simulations to identify this seemingly paradoxical connection.

1875 was coldest in 10,000 years, Warming A Good Thing

.
.
‘We made ourselves an extremely poor experiment when we started to observe meteorology at the coldest time in the last ten thousand years.’ – Indeed.

Science Matters

Jørgen Peder Steffensen, of Denmark’s Niels Bohr Institute, is one of the most experienced experts in ice core analysis, in both Greenland and Antarctica. In this video he explains a coincidence that has misled those alarmed about the warming recovery since the Little Ice Age.  And if you skip to 2:25, you will see the huge error we have made and the assumptions and extrapolations based on that error.  Transcript below is from closed captions with my bolds and added images. H/T Raymond

What do ice cores tell us about the history of climate change and the present trend? 

This ice is from the Viking age around the year one thousand, also called the medieval warm period. We believe that in Greenland the Medieval Warm Period was about one and a half degrees warmer on average than today

NorthGRIP the Greenland ice core project is being reopened to drill…

View original post 610 more words

Medieval writings on lunar eclipses may help date volcanic eruptions

During a total solar eclipse, the Sun’s corona and prominences are visible to the naked eye [image credit: Luc Viatour / https://Lucnix.be ]

A climate detective story.

H/T Paul Vaughan
– – –
When medieval monks were looking up at the night sky, writing down their observations of celestial objects, they had no idea that their words would be invaluable centuries later to a group of scientists in a completely different field: volcanology.

A new study published Wednesday in the peer-reviewed journal Nature explains how descriptions of lunar eclipses by monks and scribes were key in studying some of the largest volcanic eruptions on Earth, says CTV News.

Using a combination of these medieval writings and climate data stretching back centuries, researchers were able to clarify the date of around 10 volcanic eruptions that took place between the year 1100 and 1300.

Researchers investigate the “Warm Arctic-Cold Continent” (WACC) climate theory

Their analysis relates to 1979-2018 only. Media talk of ‘stranded’ polar bears, not mentioned in the study, ignores the fact that they are talented swimmers. The unresolved issue of the wavier jet stream is noted in the study, but that’s all. They admit prediction of where it’s all going is difficult.
– – –
Pictures of melting glaciers and stranded [?] polar bears on shrinking sea ice in the Arctic are perhaps the most striking images that have been used to highlights the effects of global warming, says Phys.org.

However, they do not convey the full extent of the consequences of warmer Arctic. In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world. [Talkshop comment – dubious assertions]

While the Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average, winters in the midlatitude regions have experienced colder and more severe weather events.