Archive for the ‘Maths’ Category

Ned and Karl have finally got some big exposure to the general public for their paradigm shifting breakthrough in geo and astro-physics. World Net Daily front page stories are read by over a million people. This is a great step forward for recognition of their work.

Study blows Greenhouse Theory out of the water

7-9-2017 By Alex Newman for World Net Daily

BOZEMAN, Mont. – A new scientific paper contends the entire foundation of the man-made global-warming theory – the assumption that greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere by trapping heat – is wrong.

If confirmed, the study’s findings would crush the entire “climate change” movement to restrict CO2 emissions, the authors assert

Some experts contacted by WND criticized the paper, while others advised caution.

Still others suggested that the claimed discovery represents a massive leap forward in human understanding – a “new paradigm.”

The paper argues that concentrations of CO2 and other supposed “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere have virtually no effect on the earth’s temperature.



Back in late 2011, the Talkshop splashed the story on a ‘Unified Theory of Climate’  developed by PhD physicists Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller. They set out to show that the ‘greenhouse effect’ is not a phenomenon arising out of the absorption and reemission of outgoing long-wave radiation by the atmosphere (as thought for 190 years), but is a form of compression heating controlled by solar radiation and the total atmospheric pressure at the Earth’s surface. Pressure is in turn a product of the gas mass contained in a column of air above a unit surface area, and the planet’s gravitational effect on that mass.

It’s been a long and treacherous road involving many revisions and refinements of the original study. On several occasions the manuscript was rejected unread, but Ned and Karl have finally got their greatly improved and expanded paper published. This latest version is a tour de force strengthened by the rigors of criticism from an army of peer reviewers at several journals along the way.

Using dimensional analysis (a classical technique for inferring physically meaningful relationships from measured data), they show that the long-term global equilibrium surface temperature of bodies in the solar system as diverse as Venus, the Moon, Earth, Mars, Titan and Triton can accurately be described using only two predictors: the mean distance from the Sun and the total atmospheric surface pressure. This type of cross-planetary analysis using vetted NASA observations has not been conducted by any other authors. It represents the first and only attempt in the history of climate science to assess Earth’s surface temperature in the context of a cosmic physical continuum defined by actual planetary-scale observations. The result is a new insight that planetary climates are independent of the infrared optical depth of their atmospheres arising from their composition, and that the long-wave ‘back radiation’ is actually a product of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it.




With sadness, I’m sharing the news that my Talkshop co-blogger Tim Channon passed away on Friday. Tim had been bravely battling with cancer for some time, and was still upbeat and lively-minded when I spoke with him last week. Since then unfortunately, medical complications set in.

Tim was one of a kind. A humorous, thoughtful and technically brilliant individual. His contribution to our understanding of cyclic phenomena through the analysis software he wrote propelled me into my own research. His patient recording of weather data and survey of UK weather stations demonstrate the depth of interest and passion he had for bringing facts to bear on the climate debate. His dedication, skill and good natured rebukes against uninformed speculation and bad theory puts him in the Pantheon of great sceptical thinkers and scientists.

Tim will be missed and remembered.



Saturn and the lunar year

Posted: January 28, 2017 by oldbrew in Maths, solar system dynamics

Comparison of Saturn and Earth [image credit: NASA]

Comparison of Saturn and Earth [image credit: NASA]

In a recent post: Sidorenkov and the lunar or tidal year we were looking at the match between tropical years and periods of 13 lunar months (i.e. the lunar, or tidal, year):
353 tropical years = 363 tidal years (where 1 lunar year = 13 lunar tropical months)

Here we want to see if Saturn links to the lunar year.
From the JPL ephemeris [target body: Saturn] we have:
Saturn orbit period = 10755.698 days

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits  chart

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart

From another post we produced a chart [right] based on 85 Saturn orbit periods:
85 x 10755.698 days = 914234.33 days

One tidal year = 13 x 27.321582 days = 355.18056 days
914234.33 / 355.18056 = 2573.9987 tidal years (2574)
So 85 Saturn orbits = 2574 tidal years

Since 2574 is divisible by 6 (= 429) we can use the chart to say:
403 Saturn-Earth conjunctions (S-E) = 429 tidal years
or, dividing by 13:
31 S-E = 33 tidal years
therefore, multiplying by 11:
341 S-E = 353 tropical years = 363 tidal years (the original match, see above)

[click on image to enlarge]

[click on image to enlarge]

Another one to add to the ‘how and why did they do that?’ list of ancient sites. Years of research lie ahead.

Imagine you are about to plan and construct a building that involves several complicated geometrical shapes, but you aren’t allowed to write down any numbers or notes as you do it. For most of us, this would be impossible.

Yet, new research from Arizona State University has revealed that the ancient Southwestern Pueblo people, who had no written language or written number system, were able to do just that – and used these skills to build sophisticated architectural complexes, reports

Dr. Sherry Towers, a professor with the ASU Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, uncovered these findings while spending several years studying the Sun Temple archaeological site in Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado, constructed around A.D. 1200.

“The site is known to have been an important focus of ceremony in the region for the ancestral Pueblo peoples, including solstice observations,” Towers says. “My original interest in the site involved looking at whether it was used for observing stars as well.”

However, as Towers delved deeper into the site’s layout and architecture, interesting patterns began to emerge.

Sidorenkov and the lunar or tidal year

Posted: November 27, 2016 by oldbrew in climate, Cycles, Maths, moon
Tags: ,



This is an attempt to understand via the numbers the concept proposed by Russian researcher Sidorenkov of a lunar year interacting with the terrestrial year to produce an effect of a ‘quasi-35 year’ climate cycle.


The lunisolar tides repeat with a period of 355 days,
which is known as the tidal year. This period is also
manifested as a cycle of repeated eclipses. Meteorological
characteristics (pressure, temperature, cloudiness, etc.)
vary with a period of 355 days. The interference of these
tidal oscillations and the usual annual 365-day oscillations
generates beats in the annual amplitude of meteorological
characteristics with a period of about 35 years (Sidorenkov
and Sumerova, 2012b). The quasi 35-year variations in
cloudiness lead to oscillations of the radiation balance
over terrestrial regions. As a result of these quasi-
35-year beats, the climate, for example, over European
Russia alternates between “continental” with dominant
cold winters and hot summers (such as from 1963 to 1975
and from 1995 to 2014) and “maritime” with frequent
warm winters and cool summers (such as from 1956 to
1962 and from 1976 to 1994)


Tim writes,

Published 27th February 2016 Climate Audit published a small article in honour of Kreiss to do with atmospheric modelling, the hydrostatic balance… or not.

Comments follow from Names. I think the comments are worthy of a read and decode by Talkshop readers who have an interest in this kind of topic.

Gerry Browning: In Memory of Professor Heinz Kreiss

Gerry Browning writes:

The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models


My thanks to talkshop contributor and PRP author R.J. Salvador for sending me an updated prediction for changes in LOD during 2016. This plot has been produced using R.J.s model, which has been developed using the planetary periodicities we have been working on here at the talkshop over the last few years.

Updated LOD Forecast

R.J. has kindly agreed to send a monthly update showing the progress of the model output against IERS observations as the year progresses. This is real science in progress. Creating a hypothesis, building a model, and testing it against reality.


Phi and the Great Pyramid of Khufu

Posted: November 19, 2015 by oldbrew in Maths, Measurement, Phi
Great Pyramid of Giza from a 19th-century stereopticon card photo [credit: Wikipedia]

Great Pyramid of Giza from a 19th-century stereopticon card photo [credit: Wikipedia]

Let’s have a look at some numbers for the Great Pyramid.

Source: Building the Great Pyramid (aka Cheops)
Copyright 2006 Franz Löhner and Teresa Zuberbühler

Dimensions as designed (in Egyptian royal cubits):
Length: 440
Height: 280
Slope: 356

Original dimensions as built (a,h and c in the pyramid diagram below):
Length: 230.36m (half = 115.18m)
Height: 146.59m
Slope: 186.42m


What is a Saros? Quoting Wikipedia:
‘One saros period after an eclipse, the Sun, Earth, and Moon return to approximately the same relative geometry, a near straight line, and a nearly identical eclipse will occur’

‘It takes between 1226 and 1550 years for the members of a saros series to traverse the Earth’s surface from north to south (or vice-versa)’

Only a few lines to go … (more…)

One equation for earth temperature

Posted: November 29, 2014 by tchannon in atmosphere, Gravity, Maths

At The Hockey Schitick MS has posted a brave article

The Greenhouse Equation

This seems to be a culmination of a series of articles.

[UPDATE: and another article showing a fit against Standard Atmosphere /UPDATE]



Nicola Scafetta has emailed me to let us know he has a new paper in press which adresses critiques of our solar-planetary theory. I can’t do justice to presenting this work by illustrating this post with figures from the paper using my cellphone, but this a seriously impressive piece of work which Nicola generously shares with Talkshop readers via a link below the break. Nicola writes:

I just would like to share my latest paper
Nicola Scafetta, 2014. Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate  oscillations: a reply to some critiques.

Astrophysics and Space Science in press.

For those who followed this research, the paper strongly rebuts some interesting critiques of the planetary theory of solar and climate variation made by Holm andCauquoin et al. that emerged in the literature during the first months of the 2014. (It also rebuts the very improper and unprofessional criticism made by Anthony Watts)


The Catch-22 of Energy Storage

Posted: November 1, 2014 by tallbloke in Analysis, Energy, Maths, wind


H/T @hockeyschtick1 for this great article on the non-viability of wind/solar as large-scale replacement for fossil/nuclear. Now can we scrap the CCA please?


Brave New Climate

Pick up a research paper on battery technology, fuel cells, energy storage technologies or any of the advanced materials science used in these fields, and you will likely find somewhere in the introductory paragraphs a throwaway line about its application to the storage of renewable energy.  Energy storage makes sense for enabling a transition away from fossil fuels to more intermittent sources like wind and solar, and the storage problem presents a meaningful challenge for chemists and materials scientists… Or does it?

Guest Post by John Morgan. John is Chief Scientist at a Sydney startup developing smart grid and grid scale energy storage technologies.  He is Adjunct Professor in the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering at RMIT, holds a PhD in Physical Chemistry, and is an experienced industrial R&D leader.  You can follow John on twitter at @JohnDPMorgan First published in Chemistry in Australia .

Several recent analyses of the…

View original post 1,723 more words

Solar system planets [image credit: BBC]

Solar system planets by size
[image credit: BBC]

Using a simple formula we’re now able to see the link between Jupiter and Saturn orbits. As in the original giant planets update post the numbers are quite large but easily connected to the ‘Why Phi’ concept.

Using the orbit period of each planet we derive the synodic period, i.e. the time taken for the path of faster planet Jupiter to ‘catch up’ with slower planet Saturn. If we call the orbit periods J and S and the synodic period J-S we can make two calculations:
(360 / S) x J-S and (360 / J) x J-S.
The difference between the two results should be 360.


Why Phi: giant planets update

Posted: October 26, 2014 by oldbrew in Maths, solar system dynamics

Solar system planets [image credit: BBC]

Solar system planets by size
[image credit: BBC]

The Why Phi series started with a discussion around ‘Relations between the Fibonacci Series and Solar System Orbits’ (link below)

Now NASA has updated its planetary data as of 20th October 2014. With the revised numbers (see below for source) we have to re-calculate the orbital relationships of the giant planets.

Amending the original numbers we find:
89 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions = almost 1768 years
In Fibonacci numbers: 1768 = 34 x 13 x 2²

And there’s more…


From the Telegraph:

woodfire-cavemanTaxing issue for king coal
Drax has fallen victim to the Government’s efforts to clean up the way we generate energy in this country. The majority of electricity in the UK still comes from our fleet of coal-fired power stations, of which Drax is one of the biggest in Europe. However, that is all set to change as the Government steadily increases the amount of tax it charges from this year on power generated by burning coal. The Government is trying to shift to cleaner and more modern gas-fired power stations. In order to survive, Drax has drawn up plans to convert its coal-fired generators to run on vast amounts of wood chip, or biomass.



From The Irish Times:

A negotiated agreement to facilitate green energy exports from the midlands by a 2020 EU timeframe has not been reached, Minister for Energy Pat Rabbitte has said, meaning the midlands energy export project will not proceed.
The deal had envisaged 2,300 wind turbines being built across the midlands between now and 2020 to supply 5,000 megawatts to the British market.
Green Party leader Eamon Ryan responded to the announcement saying Ireland was walking away from renewable energy, while a wind energy lobby group expressed concern at the talks pull-out, saying a deal could have been reached.

My thanks to Tony Thomas for giving the talkshop the exclusive of his take on this breaking news item:

Gergis findings re-surface – the Hockey Stick lives!

By Tony Thomas 31-03-2014

josh-gergisHello again Hockey Stick, goodbye global Medieval Warming Period.

These are the conclusions of a multi-proxy 1000-year climate reconstruction published today (March 31) in Nature Climate Change, by Dr Raphael Neukom of the Oeschger Centre at the University of Bern, and Dr Joelle Gergis of the University of Melbourne.

Dr  Neukom   summed up for a University of Melbourne press release:

The study showed the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, as identified in some European chronicles, was a regional phenomenon. 

During the same period, temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were only average. Our study revealed it was not a common climate event that many people have previously assumed.

The paper claims that in 99.7 percent of the results, the warmest decade of the millennium occurred after 1970.

The press release says,“And surprisingly, only twice over the entire past millennium have both hemispheres simultaneously shown extreme temperatures.

One of these occasions was a global cold period in the 17th century; the other was the current warming phase”.”[1]


On UCLA’s main website there is a ‘space missions’ page. On it there is a section for the Diviner mission, which mapped the Moon’s surface temperature. We covered it in a series of posts a while back, as it is crucial to our understanding of Earth’s climate:

divops_lroflybyDiviner: The Diviner Lunar Radiometer is one of seven instruments aboard NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft, which was launched on June 18, 2009. It is the first instrument to create detailed, global maps of surface temperature over the lunar day and year. Diviner’s measurements are also used to map compositional variations, derive subsurface temperatures, assess the stability of potential polar ice deposits, and infer landing hazards such as roughness and rock abundance. Read more here.

But the links to the diviner subdomain are broken, and although references to other pages about the mission such as press releases and news articles are found by searching the UCLA site, the science has gone. OK, so websites get changed, links get broken, servers crash and don’t get rebooted for a while. So what?  Why does this matter?


Reuters has this:

eu-rus2Economy and Energy Minister Sigmar Gabriel is finalising much-disputed changes to the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) which includes reductions in subsidies for green energy before he presents it to cabinet in early April.

Shifting Europe’s biggest economy to energy from the sun and wind and away from nuclear and fossil fuels is a top priority of Merkel’s new right-left coalition government.

But the project, which offers some 20 billion euros in green subsidies a year and is paid for by electricity users, has been dogged by the competing interests of industry, a booming green sector and the country’s 16 federal states.