Waiting for the next sunspot cycle: 2019-2030

A solar cycle 24 prediction chart [credit:NASA]

What follows are extracts, omitting a few of the more technical aspects which can be viewed in the GWPF’s full article here. Possible ‘colder climates’ get a mention.

Sten Odenwald of NASA Heliophysics Education Consortium writes:
Forecasters are already starting to make predictions for what might be in store as our sun winds down its current sunspot cycle in a few years. Are we in for a very intense cycle of solar activity, or the beginning of a century-long absence of sunspots and a rise in colder climates?

Ever since Samuel Schwabe discovered the 11-year ebb and flow of sunspots on the sun in 1843, predicting when the next sunspot cycle will appear, and how strong it will be, has been a cottage industry among scientists and non-scientists alike.

Solar cycle history extended back to cycle 7, newly digitised Schwabe data

Tim writes,

A new paper of considerable interest at the Talkshop…

Properties of sunspot cycles and hemispheric wings since the 19th century
Raisa Leussu, Ilya G. Usoskin, Rainer Arlt and Kalevi Mursula
http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201628335
Open access with registration.

Mag 6.2 ‘quake central Italy, significant fatalities

Tim writes,

Figure 1, plot from http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts

Earthquake at 01:36 UT

Once again the spectre of space weather correlation with earthquakes turns up.

Solar radio and extreme UV during current cycle

Tim wrote,

From A& A (Astronomy and Astrophysics) this month is a paper where some readers will take a shine.

Comparison of solar radio and extreme ultraviolet synoptic limb charts during the present solar maximum
A. J. Oliveira e Silva, C. L. Selhorst, P. J. A. Simões and C. G. Giménez de Castro
A&A, 592 (2016) A91
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201527792
(free access with registration)

New Dawn Of Truth: London Climate Change Conference 2016

It’s finally happening. Thanks to Herculean efforts by Niklas Morner, we are presenting a two-day conference in central London on the 8-9th September. Speakers are coming from all over the world to present their work, and it is not to be missed!

Take the 8-9th September off work and join us for this historic event. The first UK climate conference in decades which will counter the scaremongering of the IPCC with a cool, rational approach to the study of climate change, presenting alternative explanations, new data, theory and commentary. Topics include solar-planetary theory, causes of ENSO, sea ice extent, sea level, ozone depletion, volcanos, regional forecasting, journal gatekeeping and many more.

The list of contributors is long, we are packing a huge number of presentations into this two day event. Speakers include Niklas Morner, myself, Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller,  Nicola Scafetta, Per Strandberg, Jan-Erik Solheim, and thats before lunch on day one! Piers Corbyn will be there! So will  Christopher Monckton! See the full programme and the extended abstracts in this 35 Megabyte document for full details. There are also some travel and booking details on the geoethic.com website. An updated version is available on reseachgate

The Sun comes out for #Brexit

The first UK newspaper to commit to a position on the EU referendum, The Sun, backs Brexit. With the opinion polls moving in that direction, and the odds shortening by the day, the mood of the country is palpably changing. I’m working long days to help make this happen. I want my country back.

James Marusek’s Little Ice Age Theory

.
.
James Marusek’s paper says: I propose two mechanisms primarily responsible for Little Ice Age climatic conditions. These two components are Cloud Theory and Wind Theory.
—
Thanks to Paul Homewood for bringing this to our attention.

[Click on ‘view original post’ below to find a link to the full paper].

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

James Marusek has sent me his latest paper, Little Ice Age Theory.

Excerpts below:

INTRODUCTION

The sun is undergoing a state change. It is possible that we may be at the cusp of the next Little Ice Age. For several centuries the relationship between periods of quiet sun and a prolonged brutal cold climate on Earth (referred to as Little Ice Ages) have been recognized. But the exact mechanisms behind this relationship have remained a mystery. We exist in an age of scientific enlightenment, equipped with modern tools to measure subtle changes with great precision. Therefore it is important to try and come to grips with these natural climatic drivers and mold the evolution of theories that describe the mechanisms behind Little Ice Ages.

The sun changes over time. There are decadal periods when the sun is very active magnetically, producing many sunspots. These periods are referred…

View original post 784 more words

Blank sun provides more evidence for solar-planetary theory

The Sun usually exhibits ~11 year cycles of activity, but the historical sunspot record shows quite a large variance on this average figure. Here at the Talkshop, we have been developing a theory which relates solar activity levels to the motion of the planets, and in particular the motion of Jupiter, Earth and Venus. Simple indexes of ‘most aligned days’ were devised by Jean-Pierre Desmoulins, and later by NASA physicist Ching Cheh Hung, which was replicated by Talkshop contributor Roy Martin.

Two more refs to PRP papers from mainstream solar physicists

A new paper is in the works from a group of mainstream solar physics theorists who work with dynamo models. It explores the possibility that the Sun’s dynamo is modulated by planetary motion – something we’ve been working on here at the talkshop for the last six years. It finds that the gravitational interaction of the motions of Venus, Earth and Jupiter (VEJ) could be involved with both the 11.07 and 22.14 Schwabe and Hale solar cycles.

I’m not going to post the paper yet, as it is still undergoing peer review at a major journal, but I thought it would be fun to provide a teaser. Here’s part of the bibliography. If you look at the top and bottom references, they are to papers by Nicola Scafetta and  Ian Wilson which were published in our special edition of Pattern Recognition in Physics at the end of 2013.

Evidence of Solar flares bigger than Carrington event in the past millenium

From Science Nordic:

The Sun regularly, spews out solar flares–violent explosions that hurl enormous amounts of plasma into space, disrupting satellites and causing power failures here on Earth.

But these outbreaks are still small compared with the gigantic eruptions on other stars. These so-called ‘superflares’ can be up to 10,000 times bigger than the largest solar flares from our own sun.

Now new research suggests that our sun might be capable of forming similarly large superflares every 1000 years, and this could have devastating consequences, says lead-author Christoffer Karoff, from the Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University, Denmark.

“We know that these electrical particles from the Sun destroy the ozone layer. It’s suggested that the major flares that we know of led to a reduction in the ozone layer of five per cent. But no one really knows what will happen at this [superflare] level,” says Karoff.

Ian Wilson: Evidence that the Sun has always had an important influence upon climate change

Ian Wilson has just blogged this post, which should be a bit of a showstopper in the climate debate, but I expect it’ll be studiously ignored by mainstream climate scientists and lukewarm climate-sceptic blogs. By doing that, they’ll make themselves and their pet CO2 paradigm increasingly irrelevant to scientific progress. Key thing to note is that our work here at the talkshop and in PRP means we can now predict these quasi-cyclic natural variations. Over to Ian.

Abreu et al. [2012] wrote:

“The parameter that best represents the role of the solar magnetic field in deflecting cosmic
rays [and hence, the overall level of solar activity] is the solar modulation potential , which can be derived from either the 10Be or the 14C production rates.”

and

“….spectral analysis [of the solar modulation potential over the last ~ 9400 years] identifies a number of distinct periodicities (Stuiver & Braziunas 1993), such as 88 yr (Gleissberg), 104 yr, 150 yr, 208 yr (de Vries), 506 yr, 1000 yr (Eddy), and 2200 yr (Hallstatt) [cycles]…”

The top figure in the following diagram shows the Fourier transform of the variation in the solar modulation potential time series over the last 9400 years [Abreu et al. 2012]. This figure shows that potential has distinct spectral peaks at 88 years (Gleissberg Cycle), 104 years, 133 years, 150 years, 210 years (de Vries Cycle), 232 years, 356 years and 504 years.

Below this is a second figure showing amplitude spectrum of variations in the North American temperature time series over the last ~ 7000 years. The temperature time series is obtained from tree ring data obtained from Bristle Cones on the Southern Colorado Plateau [for the details of the source of this data see: Could This Be The Climate Smoking Gun?  and Salzer and Kipfmeuller (2005). The lower figure shows clear spectral peaks at approximately 88, 106, 130, 148, 209, 232, 353 and 500 years.

Strong magnetic fields discovered in majority of stars

Our magnetic Sun [image credit: space.com]

If you’re wondering why this is news, read on – it has taken at least some scientists by surprise, reports phys.org.
No magnetism without electricity 😉

Strong magnetic fields discovered in majority of stars—Finding to impact understanding of stellar evolution

An international group of astronomers led by the University of Sydney has discovered strong magnetic fields are common in stars, not rare as previously thought, which will dramatically impact our understanding of how stars evolve.

Solar forcing as an important trigger for West Greenland sea-ice variability over the last millennium

H/T to Andrew for alerting me to this new paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews.

From the paper:

Fig. 5. Reconstructed sea-ice concentrations from core GA306-GC4 compared to the 14C production rate corrected for the fossil fuel (Suess) effect for the period from 1850 to 1950 AD (Muscheler et al., 2007). (a) The direct comparison of sea-ice concentration (blue) and 14C production rate (red), as well as with DTSI (orange; difference of total solar irradiance from 1365.57 W/m2 ) (Steinhilber et al., 2012)

To investigate the feedback processes linking solar activity and sea-ice cover, we used the coupled climate model COSMOS, which indicates that a decrease in solar radiation results in increased sea-ice cover (Fig. 7a) and decreased sea-surface temperature (Fig. 7b). A strong negative correlation between sea-ice variability and solar forcing is observed along the eastern and southwestern coast of Greenland and in the Arctic Ocean, indicating that in this model solar variability is critical for simulating changes in local sea-ice production. A small change in incoming shortwave radiation, and associated ice-albedo effects, resulted in a large response of local ice formation, according to ‘bottom-up’ (solar heating of the sea surface) mechanisms (Gray et al., 2010; Hunke et al., 2010).

Paris Climate Challenge -Schedule

The alternative climate conference to COP21 in Paris this year is the Paris Climate Challenge, organised by Tom Harris of the International Climate Science Coalition and Philip Foster, author of several books on climate.

The Schedule has been finalised:

Challenging the groupthink of COP21

Stuart Agnew, Bob Carter, Piers Corbyn, Ed Flaherty, Philip Foster, Roger Helmer, Tom Harris, Donna Laframboise, Viscount Monckton, Patrick Moore, Nils-Axel Mörner, Ian Plimer, [Murry Salby], Roger Tattersall & more …  tba

If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking. – Gen. George Patton

Schedule @ 11 rue La Rochefoucauld 75009 Paris

TUESDAY 1st Dec

10am Coffee/refreshments

10.30am start

QC work: Sunspot areas and tilt angles for solar cycles 7 – 10

New paper in A&A of interest to some Talkshop readers. The authors use drawings by Schwabe, from there estimate details about solar marks. Recently solar cycle 24 has been likened to solar cycle 7, adding interest

Sunspot areas and tilt angles for solar cycles 7–10
V. Senthamizh Pavai, R. Arlt, M. Dasi-Espuig, N.A. Krivova, and S. K. Solanki
A&A 584, A73 (2015)
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201527080
Open access on registration

 

Fig.2. Example of the drawing style in the initial period of 1825-1830.
This full-disk drawing of 1827 June 13 shows large spots which com-
bine several umbrae and at least part of the penumbral area, as is re-
vealed by the detailed drawings.

Solar hard UV is weakening.

The EUV spectrum of the Sun: Irradiances during 1998–2014
G. Del Zanna 1 and V. Andretta 2
A&A 584, A29 (2015)
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201526804
(c) ESO 2015
Open access on registration

Examples from paper Fig 6

From abstract

… show that the irradiances in the hot (2–3 MK) lines are significantly
lower for the cycle 24 maximum compared to the previous one.

From Introduction

1. Introduction
The present paper is part of an on-going effort to provide the
best possible solar spectral irradiance in the extreme ultraviolet
(EUV). The solar EUV variability causes dramatic changes in
the temperature and density of the thermosphere, and it could
also have some indirect effects on the climate. Indeed, some of
the current global circulation models also require EUV irradi-
ances to properly take the solar forcing into account.

Z-Axis theory gets a boost from a study of gyroscopic precessional motion.

Hat tip to Talkshop contributor ‘OldmanK’ for alerting us to an interesting website written by physicist Carl Johnson some years ago. Among the many interesting articles, there are a few on gyroscopes and the angular momentum of precession which directly relate to our study of solar system organisation, and which provide clues as to how the energy transfer which organises the stability of the orbits occurs. I have a hunch that this can potentially lead to several advances for us, in understanding the relations not only of orbital periods and their effects on neighbouring orbits, but also of orbit to spin-rate energy transfers. This will help unlock the mysterious numerical ‘coincidences’ Stuart and I have discovered between planetary rotation rates and their neighbours orbital rates. It may also further our understanding of correlations I discovered between Z-axis motion of the Sun relative to the centre of mass of the solar system and sunspot production, and changes in Earth’s length of day.

It will also help us understand why the important Z-axis discovery recently made by Paul Vaughan is Geo-effective, as evidenced by the appearance of the relevant periods in paleo-proxy records. As Paul points out, the implication is that two key cyclic periods, the Gleissberg and De Vries cycles, may be more to do with Earth’s orientation variations caused by Gas giant motion than solar activity variation, though it’s possible both are involved in the climate changes indicated by the proxies. This would be because the gas giant planets affect the Sun as well as the Earth directly.

Solar storms present a genuine hazard risk to modern society

Rather than squandering billions of public money on climate chimaeras, our governments need to be taking solar scientists more seriously when they warn that electronic infrastructure will be heavily damaged the next time the Sun lets go of a big flare in our direction. Making our logistics, transport and power systems more resilient to a really big solar storm should be a priority, given the consequences.

Solar storms and the particles they release result in spectacular phenomena such as auroras, but they can also pose a serious risk to our society. In extreme cases they have caused major power outages, and they could also lead to breakdowns of satellites and communication systems. According to a study published today in Nature Communications, solar storms could be much more powerful than previously assumed. Researchers at Lund University in Sweden have now confirmed that Earth was hit by two extreme solar storms more than 1,000 years ago.

“If such enormous solar storms would hit Earth today, they could have devastating effects on our power supply, satellites and communication systems,” says Raimund Muscheler at the Department of Geology, Lund University.

Blast waves in the Sun’s atmosphere

[credit: NASA]

The Sun still has some tricks up its sleeve for humans to ponder, as phys.org reports: ‘The waves…extended over at least half a million kilometers and propagated at a speed of approximately 300 kilometers per second’.

Two teams of researchers led by Nariaki Nitta from the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center in the USA and by Radoslav Bucík from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) in Germany have independently discovered a new solar phenomenon: large-scale waves in the star’s atmosphere accompanied by energetic particle emissions rich in helium-3. Helium-3 is a light variety of the inert gas helium.

The huge waves may contribute significantly to accelerate the particles into space, the MPS scientists now report in the Astrophysical Journal. Decisive for this discovery were the two spacecraft STEREO A and ACE making it possible to simultaneously observe the sun from two different directions. In the near future, no such opportunity will arise again.

Sun earthquake linkage and August 2015 Chile quake

Two papers are on the way about a model linking solar field activity and large terrestrial eqarthquakes. h/t to Michele

Studies Suggest Sun Triggers Massive Earthquakes
The sun is triggering the deadliest earthquakes on the planet, including the recent M8.3 earthquake in Chile on September 16, 2015 and deadly tsunami that followed, according to two papers to be published October 5th in New Concepts in Global Tectonics. The papers investigate fluctuations in the magnetic field activity of the sun and found a statistically significant relationship between M8+ earthquakes and the extremes and reversals in magnetism of solar polar magnetic fields.

The team first announced the results in August 2014, and recently used the methods proposed in that study to provide evidence that a recent major earthquake fit the patterns observed in the foundational study. In early 2014, Dr. Christopher Holloman’s team of researchers at The Ohio State University Statistical Consulting Service was able to construct a model that exhibited very strong agreement between solar magnetism patterns and the occurrence of large earthquakes. Dr. Holloman warned that formal testing of the model can only be performed by examining its performance over the next few years, but that the agreement was sufficient to suggest that a relationship likely exists between solar polar fields, or magnetic fields associated with the north and south poles of the sun, and large earthquakes. Now we have a subsequent event that appears to comport with the initial study.

— http://spaceweathernews.com/studies-suggest-sun-triggers-massive-earthquakes/