Summer sea ice disappearance from the Arctic has happened before, say researchers

They studied molecules from certain algae that are only produced when there is sea ice. Natural climate variation alone was all it took to reach the required temperature level.
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The “Last Ice Area” north of Greenland and Canada is the last sanctuary of all-year sea ice in this time of rising temperatures caused by climate change.

A new study now suggests that this may soon be over, says Phys.org.

Researchers from Aarhus University, in collaboration with Stockholm University and the United States Geological Survey, analyzed samples from the previously inaccessible region north of Greenland.

The sediment samples were collected from the seabed in the Lincoln Sea, part of the “Last Ice Area”. They showed that the sea ice in this region melted away during summer months around 10,000 years ago.

The research team concluded that summer sea ice melted at a time when temperatures were at a level that we are rapidly approaching again today.

Catastrophism update: UN to deliver diagnosis, prescription for its ‘climate crisis’

The world only has one temperature, which must somehow be restrained by human efforts — and lots of money. Or so the endless IPCC reports would have us believe. Keep paying up so the self-styled weather controllers can ‘save the planet’.
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The United Nations was poised to release a capstone report Monday distilling nearly a decade of published science on the impacts and trajectory of global warming, and the tools available to prevent climate catastrophe, says Phys.org.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 30-odd page “summary for policymakers”—compressing 10,500 pages authored by more than 1,000 scientists—is as dense as a black hole and will deliver a stark warning.

“We are nearing a point of no return,” UN chief Antonio Guterres said last week as diplomats from 195 nations gathered in Interlaken, Switzerland, to hammer out the final wording, finalized on Sunday night by exhausted and sleep-deprived delegates two days behind schedule.

“For decades, the IPCC has put forward evidence on how people and planet are being rocked by climate destruction.”

Catastrophism update: Governments to vet ‘crucial’ UN climate science report

The ‘Pakistan one third underwater’ lie gets yet another airing here, while Arctic summer sea ice keeps confounding the doomsters. Pretending to know the future of global climate via modelling has only led to the failure of numerous over-the-top predictions so far.
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Diplomats from nearly 200 nations and top climate scientists begin a week-long huddle in Switzerland Monday to distill nearly a decade of published science into a 20-odd-page warning about the existential danger of global warming, and what to do about it, says Phys.org.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s synthesis report—to be released on March 20—will detail observed and projected changes in Earth’s climate system; past and future impacts such as devastating heatwaves, flooding and rising seas; and ways to halt the carbon pollution [sic] pushing Earth toward an unlivable state. [Talkshop comment – unverified claim].

“It’s a massive moment, seven years since the Paris Agreement and nine years since the last IPCC assessment report,” Greenpeace Nordic senior policy advisor Kaisa Kosonen, an official observer at IPCC meetings, told AFP.

New Model Explains The Water Cycles of Mars’s Swiss Cheese-Looking South Pole

Mars [image credit: NASA]

It’s said to be related to the current obliquity cycle period of about 100,000 years. Mystery solved?
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Seen from space, regions of Mars around the south pole have a bizarre, pitted “Swiss cheese” appearance, says ScienceAlert.

These formations come from alternating massive deposits of CO2 ice and water ice, similar to different layers of a cake.

For decades, planetary scientists wondered how this formation was possible, as it was long believed that this layering would not be stable for long periods of time.

Satellite Temps Hit Bottom: February 2023

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Climate miserablists are no doubt dreaming of a mega El Niño to get their warming scare back on course.

Science Matters

The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean.  But as an overview consider how recent rapid cooling  completely overcame the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016).  The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one were gone as of April 2021, again in November 2021, and in February and June 2022  Now at year end 2022 and continuing into January 2023 we have again global temp anomaly lower than average since 1995. (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020).

For reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa.  While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~60 ppm, a 15% increase.

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

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UK weather: The atmospheric ‘seesaw’ partly responsible for this week’s cold snap

Meteorology time. Why the ‘partly’ in the headline? Climate change pokes its nose in at the end of the article, but all that’s offered is uncertainty.
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The “seesaw” is bordered by a high-pressure area west of Portugal and a low-pressure area centred over Iceland.

When the balance changes, so does the weather, says Sky News.

An atmospheric “seesaw” is partly responsible for the snow that much of the UK will likely see this week.

Climate signals from ancient ice and wood

Hunger stone at Decin on the River Elbe, with dates back to 1616 or earlier [image credit: Norbert Kaiser @ Wikipedia]

We looked at some of this recently, here and here. Of course the problem nowadays is that weather news is liable to be subjected to the melodrama treatment by climate obsessives. Re. the European droughts, there’s also the evidence of the ‘hunger stones’, for example.
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The Holocene – the time since the end of the last glaciation – which has witnessed all of humanity’s recorded history and the rise and fall of civilisations – began only 11,700 years ago, says Dr David Whitehouse @ Net Zero Watch.

It is a relatively warm period, but how warm was it at its warmest?

What happened in the past informs current climate models placing the current global warming into perspective.

Study finds sinking tundra surface unlikely to trigger runaway permafrost thaw

Alaskan permafrost: [image credit: insideclimatenews.org]

Nature has its own adaptations. Eventually the process, should it occur, becomes self-limiting.
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Oak Ridge National Laboratory scientists set out to address one of the biggest uncertainties about how carbon-rich permafrost will respond to gradual sinking of the land surface as temperatures rise.

Using a high-performance computer simulation, the research team found that soil subsidence is unlikely to cause rampant thawing in the future, says EurekAlert.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified the possibility of soil subsidence leading to a feedback loop that could trigger a rapid thaw as a major concern in the decades ahead.

Accelerated thawing caused by uneven land subsidence has been observed on smaller scales over shorter time frames, but the IPCC’s assessments were uncertain as to what may happen over the long term.

I can’t feel fingertips after rowing in Antarctic seas

Scotia Sea, Antarctica [image credit: Antarctic96]

Midsummer in the Antarctic – no picnic.
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Adventurer Jamie Douglas-Hamilton says his latest rowing challenge in the world’s most treacherous waters has left him in the worst pain he has ever felt, reports BBC News.

“I still can’t feel my fingertips and can’t wiggle my toes,” he says.

“I couldn’t even walk to the bathroom from my bed without hanging on to things along the way.”

Jamie was part of a crew of six who battled 30ft (10m) waves, crippling seasickness, icy cold winds and constant terror in Antarctica’s Southern Ocean and Scotia Sea.

Elephant seal remains show Antarctic sea was warmer in the mid-to-late Holocene

Antarctica

Once again, evidence of times in the past long before the industrial era when warming similar to or in excess of the present ‘crisis’ conditions occurred in a polar region. Natural climate variation is the norm.
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Studying the response of Antarctic ice sheets to past warming episodes is essential to understand how they may respond to the present warming climate, as their melting and collapse can contribute to global sea level rise, says Phys.org.

Detailed records of past ocean temperatures close to the continent are rare, but clues to how ice sheets and sea ice responded to global conditions in the past can be found in funny places—even in the remains of animals that once lived there.

A study led by the University of Maine used the presence (and eventual lack thereof) of elephant seals to illustrate how the area transformed in a warm period in the recent past.

Climate models and the Holocene global temperature conundrum

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

Here we learn “our review revealed how surprisingly little we know about slow-moving climate variability”. In between unsupported assertions about human-caused modern warming, the authors of the review article ponder the realities of natural climate variability, including a warmer-than-today period in the Holocene, under the headings ‘What we know’, ‘What we don’t know’, and ‘Why it matters’. The closing line: “Our review suggests that climate models are underestimating important climate feedbacks that can amplify global warming.” Is this another way of saying long-term natural variation is being underestimated by the models?
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Accurate climate models play a critical role in climate science and policy, helping to inform policy- and decision-makers throughout the world as they consider ways to slow the deadly effects of a warming planet and to adapt to changes already in progress, says Eurekalert.

To test their accuracy, models are programmed to simulate past climate to see if they agree with the geologic evidence.

The model simulations can conflict with the evidence. How can we know which is correct?

A review article published today in Nature addresses this conflict between models and evidence, known as the Holocene global temperature conundrum.

Arctic blast brings record cold to the US

Ouch! The ‘rapidly warming’ Arctic, as climate alarmists like to claim, can still pack a hefty punch. Weren’t such days supposed to be over, in theory at least?
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Weather authorities say an “epic, generational Arctic outbreak” caused record cold temperatures and life-threatening conditions in the northeastern United States on Saturday, reports DW.com.

The summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire reported a low of minus 78 Celsius (minus 108 Fahrenheit) — the coldest temperature ever recorded in the United States.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Caribou, Maine, said it received reports of “frostquakes.”

Why have there been no named winter storms this year? – BBC

Omega blocking highs can remain in place for several days or even weeks [image credit: UK Met Office]

Bring on the loaded questions, such as ‘How does climate change affect windstorms?’ The BBC casts around for suspects, like La Niña and meandering polar jet streams, but it’s all inconclusive. Are the ‘extreme weather’ climate obsessives feeling deprived?
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By February, the UK would normally have had around three storms given names by the Met Office – just like Arwen, Barra and Callum, says BBC News.

But so far this autumn and winter, there hasn’t been a single one.

Weather patterns have been calmer across the Atlantic and towards northwest Europe. But why?

China’s North Pole – where record low temperatures plunge to -53C

Beiji Village in Mohe, China’s northernmost city [image credit : china.org.cn]

The reporter here says it’s ‘so cold it feels uncomfortable in your lungs’ then goes on to speculate on possible/imagined links to global warming aka climate change. ‘Research suggests’…etc. The freezing cold air coming south from Siberia gets billed as an ‘extreme weather event’.
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Mohe is known as China’s North Pole for a good reason, says Sky News.

It is the country’s most northern city and is a very, very cold place.

It’s difficult to describe what temperatures this low feel like.

On Sunday it hit -53C, a new low for the coldest temperature recorded in the country since modern monitoring began.

The National Meteorological Centre confirmed the previous record of -52.3C, set in 1969, had been beaten.

Science Writer Warns Ozone Hole Recovery Claims Likely Premature, Too Optimistic

Credit: earthhow.com

Is there a role for natural climate variation here, and if so, what is going on?
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Claims by a UN-backed expert panel that the ozone layer is healing and headed to full recovery may be premature and overly optimistic, Net Zero Watch’s Science Editor Dr. David Whitehouse has warned.

Any internet search will find hundreds of news stories announcing that the ozone hole over the Antarctic is slowly filling and that by about the middle of this century mankind’s vandalism of this natural atmospheric layer will have been remedied, says Benny Peiser via Climate Change Dispatch.

The ozone hole has become an icon of anthropogenic interference in the natural world — and a hopeful signpost that there is a way back. But is the ozone hole healing? Not by as much as many headlines suggest, it would appear.

N. Hemisphere Temps Set To Fall Over Next 25 Years, Say Top Intl. Scientists

Too much hot air

Predictions like this may or may not come true. Warmists may have to wheel out their standard ‘natural cooling masking human-caused warming’ excuse again.
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Whisper it quietly – and don’t tell Al ‘Boiling Oceans’ Gore – but the Northern Hemisphere may be entering a temperature cooling phase until the 2050s with a decline up to 0.3°C.

By extension, the rest of the globe will also be cooled, says Chris Morrison (via Climate Change Dispatch).

These sensational findings, ignored by the mainstream media, were released last year and are the work of six top international scientists led by Nour-Eddine Omrani of the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

A seismic climate connection?

As a starting point to the discussion, a graph is shown with a correlation between seismic activity and temperature over the last 40+ years. The author’s closing comment: ‘So the oceans are “boiling” and apparently Al Gore has a magic co2 fairy that is doing it.’
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I will be brief ( relatively), says meteorologist Joe Bastardi @ CFACT.

In a paper coming out, “Increased Mid-Ocean Seismic Activity: Fact or Artifact?” Dr. Arthur Viterito has confirmed my suspicions that geothermal input from the increased seismic activity is a leading cause of the warming, if not the almost total cause.

As much as the co2 crowd keeps pointing to the rise in temperature and increased emissions they ignore the fact that the air temperatures go virtually nowhere without the oceanic warming and the input of WV in the air.

The oceans are not warming via co2 feedback. Arguments about co2’s effect on the air ignore the oceanic warming.

So what is warming the ocean? Dr Viterito supplies the smoking gun to my suspicions.

Continued here.
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Al Gore WEF Meltdown: ‘Boiling the Oceans,’ ‘Rain Bombs,’ a Billion ‘Climate Refugees’ — Breitbart News

Temps Cause CO2 Changes, Not the Reverse. 2023 Update

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Not forgetting that CO2 is only a minor trace gas, at ~0.04% of the atmosphere.

Science Matters

This post is about proving that CO2 changes in response to temperature changes, not the other way around, as is often claimed.  In order to do  that we need two datasets: one for measurements of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time and one for estimates of Global Mean Temperature changes over time.

Climate science is unsettling because past data are not fixed, but change later on.  I ran into this previously and now again in 2021 and 2022 when I set out to update an analysis done in 2014 by Jeremy Shiers (discussed in a previous post reprinted at the end).  Jeremy provided a spreadsheet in his essay Murray Salby Showed CO2 Follows Temperature Now You Can Too posted in January 2014. I downloaded his spreadsheet intending to bring the analysis up to the present to see if the results hold up.  The two sources of data were:

Temperature…

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Study: How Planetary And Solar Oscillations Affect Earth’s Temperature Cycles

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

Introducing the term: Astronomical Harmonic Resonances (AHR). To see the figures cited below, go to the original article (here). A familiar topic to long-time Talkshop visitors, e.g. here.
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The mechanism and even the existence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have remained under debate among climate researchers, and the same applies to general temperature oscillations of a 60- to 90-year period, writes Antero Oilia, Ph.D. @ Climate Change Dispatch.

The recently published study of Ollila and Timonen has found that these oscillations are real and they are related to 60- and 88-year periodicities originating from the planetary and solar activity oscillations.

These oscillations can be observed in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation (PMO), and actually in the global surface temperature (GST). The similarities between the GST, AMO, PMO, and AHR (Astronomical Harmonic Resonances) are obvious in Fig. 1.

The oscillations are not limited only to temperatures.

Bering Land Bridge formed surprisingly late during last ice age, say researchers

Credit: alaskapublic.org

A researcher said: “Remarkably, the data suggest that the ice sheets can change in response to more than just global climate,” calling into question some long-held ideas. A professor connected to the study commented: “These findings appear to poke a hole in our current understanding of how past ice sheets interacted with the rest of the climate system, including the greenhouse effect.” Well, fancy that. The commentary notes that ‘global temperatures were relatively stable at the time of the fall in sea level, raising questions about the correlation between temperature, sea level and ice volume’. In short, the ice sheets grew faster than scientists had thought.
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Princeton scientists found that the Bering Land Bridge, the strip of land that once connected Asia to Alaska, emerged far later during the last ice age than previously thought, says Eurekalert. 

The unexpected findings shorten the window of time that humans could have first migrated from Asia to the Americas across the Bering Land Bridge. 

The findings also indicate that there may be a less direct relationship between climate and global ice volume than scientists had thought, casting into doubt some explanations for the chain of events that causes ice age cycles.

The study was published on December 27 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“This result came totally out of left field,” said Jesse Farmer, postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and co-lead author on the study. “As it turns out, our research into sediments from the bottom of the Arctic Ocean told us not only about past climate change but also one of the great migrations in human history.”

Insight into ice age cycles

During the periodic ice ages over Earth’s history, global sea levels drop as more and more of Earth’s water becomes locked up in massive ice sheets.

At the end of each ice age, as temperatures increase, ice sheets melt and sea levels rise. These ice age cycles repeat throughout the last 3 million years of Earth’s history, but their causes have been hard to pin down.

By reconstructing the history of the Arctic Ocean over the last 50,000 years, the researchers revealed that the growth of the ice sheets — and the resulting drop in sea level — occurred surprisingly quickly and much later in the last glacial cycle than previous studies had suggested.

“One implication is that ice sheets can change more rapidly than previously thought,” Farmer said.

During the last ice age’s peak of the last ice age, known as the Last Glacial Maximum, the low sea levels exposed a vast land area that extended between Siberia and Alaska known as Beringia, which included the Bering Land Bridge. In its place today is a passage of water known as the Bering Strait, which connects the Pacific and Arctic Oceans.

Based on records of estimated global temperature and sea level, scientists thought the Bering Land Bridge emerged around 70,000 years ago, long before the Last Glacial Maximum.

But the new data show that sea levels became low enough for the land bridge to appear only 35,700 years ago. This finding was particularly surprising because global temperatures were relatively stable at the time of the fall in sea level, raising questions about the correlation between temperature, sea level and ice volume.

“Remarkably, the data suggest that the ice sheets can change in response to more than just global climate,” Farmer said. For example, the change in ice volume may have been the direct result of changes in the intensity of sunlight that struck the ice surface over the summer.

“These findings appear to poke a hole in our current understanding of how past ice sheets interacted with the rest of the climate system, including the greenhouse effect,” said Daniel Sigman, Dusenbury Professor of Geological and Geophysical Sciences at Princeton University and Farmer’s postdoctoral advisor.

“Our next goal is to extend this record further back in time to see if the same tendencies apply to other major ice sheet changes. The scientific community will be hungry for confirmation.”

Full article here.
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Study: The Bering Strait was flooded 10,000 years before the Last Glacial Maximum