Archive for the ‘volcanos’ Category

Influence of Geothermal Heat on past and present climate

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Ben Wouters
Zuid Scharwoude, februari 2014, V 1.4
Introduction.

Current climate science asserts that the sun does not provide enough energy to explain our current pleasant surface temperatures. The Effective temperature for a planet at our distance from the sun without atmosphere is calculated as ~255K, and the atmosphere is supposedly adding ~33K to arrive at the average surface temperature of ~288K for planet Earth. (1)

Interestingly our Moon is such a planet. It reflects less solar radiation than Earth, but its average surface temperature is a mere 197K, as measured by the Diviner Project. (2)

So the assertion that solar energy is not able to explain our surface temperatures is correct, but the temperature difference to explain is at least ~90K. (3)

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Nature playing hardball

Posted: February 2, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in Tides, volcanos

Cornwall UK today

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https://www.youtube.com/embed/rxhkRzzBQ7Q

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Slide from Shariv lecture

Slide from Shariv lecture

Prof. Nir J. Shaviv, who is a member of the Racah Institute of Physics in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. According to PhysicaPlus: “…his research interests cover a wide range of topics in astrophysics, most are related to the application of fluid dynamics, radiation transfer or high energy physics to a wide range of objects – from stars and compact objects to galaxies and the early universe. His studies on the possible relationships between cosmic rays intensity and the Earth’s climate, and the Milky Way’s Spiral Arms and Ice Age Epochs on Earth were widely echoed in the scientific literature, as well as in the general press.” — From Nir’s blog [1]

Nir gave a lecture at EIKE (Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie [2]) January 2013. In the lecture at EIKE he flows through some of what is wrong with IPCC assertions and models, then drops in extraterrestrial, solar wind, galactic cosmic rays, showing some neat plots. Asserts that solar accounts for a major proportion of whatever temperature change has gone on and how IPCC omit critical factors. Models are over-sensitive.

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uksnowice

From the Talkshop’s favourite weatherman at the BBC Paul Hudson comes news of a possible run of colder weather and climate for the UK. This will be no surprise for talkshop regulars, where we have been predicting a solar slowdown for a few 11y cycles since the blog started in 2009. Nice to get some confirming support from Paul and good to see him sticking his neck out on a 20+ year weather prediction.

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

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Last night I attended a lecture at the university’s chemistry dept. by Susan Solomon, IPCC lead author and architect of the Montreal Protocol on CFC’s. The subject was:

Surprises in Radiative Forcing: What Chemicals Are Changing Our Recent Climate?

solomon

In it she outlined an explanation for the ‘hiatus’ or ‘standstill’ in global warming since around the turn of the millennium. I’ll give only a brief synopsis here, since the vid I made of the whole lecture is uploading on youtube and will be added to the post soon. Basically, Prof Soloman says the hiatus is due to a combination of two factors: A reduction in stratospheric water vapour concentrations, and the effect of volcanic SO2 based aerosols getting into the stratosphere from smaller than expected volcanoes.

I think the second of these is pretty dubious myself, but hey, she’s supposed to be the expert.

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Figure 1

Pinatubo produced the 2nd largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century after Mt Katmai decided to vanish in 1912, heard 1500 miles away.

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Reblogged from GWPF

Before And After The Temperature Standstill

  • Date: 11/06/2013 Dr David Whitehouse

The absence of any significant change in the global annual average temperature over the past 16 years has become one of the most discussed topics in climate science. It has certainly focused the debate about the relative importance of greenhouse gas forcing of the climate versus natural variability.

In all this discussion what happened to global temperature immediately before the standstill is often neglected. Many assume that since the recent warming period commenced – about 1980 – global temperature rose until 1998 and then the surface temperature at least got stuck. Things are however not that simple, and far more interesting.

As Steve Goddard has interestingly pointed out recently using RSS data going back to 1990 the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 had a very important effect on global temperatures.

screenhunter_131-jun-09-06-19

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Remains of Mt Katmai, Katmai Caldera taken from the air.
Image courtesy Pam McPherson (enhanced TNC)

The most massive volcanic eruption of the 20th century came during June 1912 in Alaska, explosive, heard 1,500 miles away. A good deal of the mountain vanished.

Mt Katmai is one of several peaks making up the Novarupta.

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Doug writes he is not a computer man. Well Doug a computer is just a robot, a tool following our instructions, exactly, to err is human, jolly good idea too because Artificial Intelligence is and has been a dead end, damagingly so. The reason is simple enough, it is without what Doug uses, his eyes, and brain, he goes places does and experiences, reacts to changes. It’s actually the noise, the randomness which breaks a precise binary way, always identical to variation and difference, no discovery.

The genetics of reproduction is doubly random, part tried and tested, part variation. Double because a second stage kicks in, won’t go into this here.

Clone. Loved on battlefields, find the weakness, hey look, they are predictable, all the same.

At the same time eg. humans are all the same.

Follow the same path, sheep, guidance and that I am trying to avoid.

Doug writes: -

The smoothing in data seems to be asked only after the compilation is questioned: the spaghetti graphs that arrived after Mann was questioned, remember, showed that what we thought (were shown) as a simple trend was, in fact, a mess with a huge variability that disappeared after statistical fiddling. (Or appeared to disappear for promotional purposes) I don’t know any-more about the ice core data, or the CO2 data.

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According to Jaworowski there was cherry picking by Callendar as above and he gives reference.

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