Walker Circulation study is a damp squib for climate worriers, contradicts models

Walker Circulation – El Niño conditions [image credit: NOAA]

The paper this article is based on informs us that ‘The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) has an outsized influence on weather and climate worldwide. Yet the PWC response to external forcings is unclear’. Under a headline saying: ‘Greenhouse gases are changing air flow over the Pacific Ocean, raising Australia’s risks of extreme weather’, the article here offers almost nothing to support an argument for any human-caused climate effects ‘in the industrial era’. The paper is somewhat embarrassing for climate models: ‘Most climate models predict that the PWC will ultimately weaken in response to global warming. However, the PWC strengthened from 1992 to 2011, suggesting a significant role for anthropogenic and/or volcanic aerosol forcing, or internal variability’. So that role could be anything or nothing, but the models trended the wrong way anyway. The search for ‘anthropogenic fingerprints’ continues.
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After a rare three-year La Niña event brought heavy rain and flooding to eastern Australia in 2020-22, we’re now bracing for the heat and drought of El Niño at the opposite end of the spectrum, says The Conversation (via Phys.org).

But while the World Meteorological Organization has declared an El Niño event is underway, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is yet to make a similar declaration. Instead, the Bureau remains on “El Niño alert.”

The reason for this discrepancy is what’s called the Pacific Walker Circulation. The pattern and strength of air flows over the Pacific Ocean, combined with sea surface temperatures, determines whether Australia experiences El Niño or La Niña events.

Ex-National Grid Chief: Community Payouts Could Speed Up UK’s Net-Zero Goals

Electricity transmission [credit: green lantern electric]

Compensation payments for unwelcome transmission lines all over the place obviously crank up the build costs of wind power even further. Add to the list of net zero charges.
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City AM summary (via OilPrice.com):
>> Nick Winser’s report proposes streamlining the planning process for building new electricity transmission lines from 12-14 years to just seven, in line with the timescales for the development of large offshore wind farms.

>> He suggests changes to planning rules to fast-track new transmission infrastructure as a strategic asset and establishing community benefits, including lump sum payments for households near new lines and a community fund for areas affected by new projects.

>> Winser also calls for reforms to the queueing system for new projects and the rapid development of the Future Systems Operator to oversee the country’s electricity and gas systems, coordinate projects, and forecast supply and demand characteristics.
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The report forecasts that the fees paid to generators to switch off when supply outstrips demand could rise from around £500m-£1bn in 2022 to a peak of £2bn-£4bn per year by around 2030, even if all current investment is delivered on time.

Research links climate change to ‘lazier’ jet stream, leading to extreme weather

Credit: The Weather Network

To what extent can ground conditions affect the weather, rather than the other way round? This study claims to have found something new, saying: ‘Since 2000, frequent “stuck” weather patterns have produced heat waves over Greenland, resulting in exceptional melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet’ – which begs the question: What started, or stopped, happening in or around 2000 to cause such patterns? The answer given is: ‘Observations have revealed a more prevalent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)’. In other words, a natural phenomenon. Getting to the bottom of what the paper says depends partly on interpreting what they mean by statements like this: ‘One question is whether this is a consequence of climate change.’
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Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper atmosphere, typically occurring around 30,000 feet, and blowing west to east, says Phys.org.

Their normal flows lead to week-to-week weather variations, modulated in the mid-latitudes by ridges and troughs in the jet stream. A high-pressure ridge, for example, produces clear, warmer weather conditions; a trough is typically followed by stormy conditions.

Together, these form waves in the jet stream that can stall as the waves grow and become more amplified, causing “stuck” weather patterns that produce longer storms and heat waves.

New research published in Nature Communications describes observations linking increased warming at high latitudes and the ever-decreasing snow cover in North America to these stalls in atmospheric circulation.

Domestic oil and gas production would unlock funding for energy transition, fossil fuel firms tell government

North Sea gas rig [image credit: safety4sea.com]

Climate dogmatists can’t bear such ideas, but money doesn’t grow on trees. Meeting oil and gas demand mainly from imports is poor policy in many ways, but fixed ideas about trace gases in the atmosphere may prevail despite a glaring lack of economic rationality.
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Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), the trade body for the UK’s oil and gas companies and contractors, has today announced the sector could invest £200bn in technologies and projects critical to delivering on climate targets by the end of this decade – provided the government enables new oil and gas fields as well as offshore wind projects, reports Business Green.

In a new report released this morning, OEUK said the government can maximise the development of the UK’s offshore energy supply chain if it delivers on the policies set out in its British Energy Strategy, including its controversial promise to grant licenses for new domestic oil and gas production.

Pyrotechnic Pandemonium: Wind Turbines Can’t Help Exploding In Toxic Fireballs

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“There’s a lot of oil up there”. One for deluded anti-oil protesters to ponder.

STOP THESE THINGS

Wind turbines love exploding into toxic fireballs that firefighters don’t even bother putting out. It’s a case of burn, baby burn when these things self-immolate.

The staggering rise in the number of turbine fires and total turbine collapses has caused insurers to ramp up the premiums they require to insure them.

Understandably, neighbours are getting sick and tired of being covered with palls of toxic smoke when these things burst into flames.

This time the pyrotechnic pandemonium takes place in Ontario.

Wind turbine blaze ‘contained’ north of Goderich, Ont.
London CTV
Scott Miller
4 June 2023

Todd Edginton could hardly believe his eyes when he looked out his back door to find a wind turbine on fire. He wasn’t alone, as people stopped just north of Goderich to see the spectacle unfold.

“I was going back to the cottage along Highway 21 from Goderich, and saw this. I said…

View original post 520 more words

As predicted, wind industry blackmails the UK – demands yet more subsidies – Net Zero Watch

Hornsea Offshore Wind Project, Yorkshire, England
[image credit: nsenergybusiness.com]

Forget the cheap electricity hype. The Oliver Twists of the loss-making renewables business are raising their voices again.
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London, 5 July – Net Zero Watch has urged the Government to stand up for consumers and businesses by rejecting the wind industry’s latest demands for more subsidies.

In a move that gives the lie to years of propaganda claiming falling costs, the wind industry’s leading lobbyists have written to the Government, threatening to abandon the UK unless there are hugely increased subsidies for their companies (see RenewableUK press release).

The industry is claiming that unforeseen rising costs now necessitate and justify three actions:

Irony Alert: Why Offshore Wind Power Increases Carbon Dioxide Gas Emissions

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A reminder that green industrialization is mostly fuel-powered.

STOP THESE THINGS

Wind power is delivered chaotically, it’s costly and critically depends on the weather. So, the only purported justification is said to be a reduction of carbon dioxide gas emissions in the electricity generation sector. Putting aside whether there’s any need to do so, STT is happy to attack the myth that wind power does any such thing.

One of our posts to that effect – How Much CO2 Gets Emitted to Build a Wind Turbine? – has clocked up over 130,000 hits and still attracts attention.

In the first of the pieces below, David Wojick tackles the myth that offshore wind power generation reduces carbon dioxide gas emissions, explaining that collapses in wind power output are met by using costly to run and highly inefficient open cycle gas turbines, ramped up to keep the grid from collapsing and the lights on when calm weather sets in. With the net result…

View original post 1,636 more words

Siemens Energy Shares Tumble 31% as Wind Turbine Troubles Exposed

A billion euros worth of trouble – they wouldn’t want that to be renewable. All is not well in wind turbine land.
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Siemens Energy saw $6.3 billion wiped off its market capitalization on Friday after warning that the impact of quality problems at its Siemens Gamesa wind turbine business would be felt for years, says OE Digital.

The group scrapped its 2023 profit outlook late on Thursday after a review of its wind turbine division exposed deeper-than-expected problems that could cost more than 1 billion euros.

“This is a disappointing and severe setback,” Siemens Gamesa CEO Jochen Eickholt told journalists on a call.

Green Omertà – Net Zero Watch

[image credit: beforeitsnews.com]

Conspiracy, mass delusion or a bit of both? Whatever it is, it’s not doing electricity consumers any favours.
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There is a conspiracy of silence about wind power costs, says Andrew Montford @ Net Zero Watch.

I know, I do tend to be a bit repetitive about the cost of wind power.

How many times have I explained that the data is completely clear: that it’s expensive; and that if it’s getting any cheaper, it’s only doing so very slowly. In fact, for onshore wind the trend is clearly upwards.

My determination on the subject is prompted by the refusal of anyone in official circles to accept the facts.

To a man (and woman) they are absolutely resolute in their insistence that wind is staggeringly cheap because windfarms have agreed staggeringly low-priced “strike prices” for power. And because industry bodies and Whitehall says it is.

The fact that nobody has ever delivered power at such a price cuts no mustard with these people.

Nor does the observation that windfarm developers are all saying that new construction will not go ahead without further handouts.

And of course, if you point to the hard data in windfarm financial accounts, they really, really do not want to know at all.

Continued here.

Russian ‘spy ships’ linked to North Sea wind farms sabotage plan

Hornsea Offshore Wind Project, Yorkshire, England
[image credit: nsenergybusiness.com]

This puts a whole new slant on claims of wind power boosting energy security.
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Russia has a programme to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, according to new allegations, says BBC News.

The details come from a joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

It says Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea.

They carry underwater surveillance equipment and are mapping key sites for possible sabotage.

‘Damning’ report calls for major National Grid changes to prevent UK missing key wind power targets

More target mania. The way things are going, or not going, the climate-obsessed UK government won’t be able to hurt the national economy with expensive and unreliable electricity as fast as planned.
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With some offshore wind projects waiting years in the pipeline, a report commissioned by the government has called for an urgent upgrade to the UK’s National Grid in order to reach the 2030 target of installing 50GW of wind power, says Sky News.

The UK will miss a key target to install 50 gigawatts (GW) of wind power by the end of the decade unless major changes are made to the grid, according to a government-commissioned report.

The 50GW target is at the heart of the government’s plans to phase out more polluting types of electricity generation by 2035, while also boosting energy security.

Tim Pick, who was appointed last year as an “offshore wind champion” to independently advise government and industry on the development of the UK’s offshore wind sector, said installing 40GW of wind power by 2030 “may be achievable” – but this falls short of the target.

Sky News has previously reported that wind generators already make more electricity than the grid can handle because of a lack of cables to transmit electricity from the north to the south of the UK.

This has resulted in British consumers paying hundreds of millions of pounds to turn wind power off, and gas generators on, closer to the source of demand.

The independent report warns this is one of the major limiting factors to industry progress.

Full article here.

What caused the record-low Antarctic sea ice in austral summer 2022? Natural variation perhaps…

Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC]

Sea ice levels are notorious for misuse by climate alarmists. Thankfully no mention of climate red herrings in this study.
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Antarctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system [snip – redundant climate waffle] — [and] significant changes in Antarctic sea ice have been observed, says Phys.org.

Specifically, it experienced a slow increase during 1979–2014, but a rapid decline thereafter.

Despite a modest recovery after the record minimum in 2017, the sea ice area during austral summer 2022 (December 2021 to February 2022) again hit a new record minimum, at 3.07 million km2, which is approximately a 25% reduction compared with its long-term mean during 1981–2010.

Opposing wind farms morally unacceptable – ‘expert’

Well, the alleged expert Lord Deben – shortly to quit as chair of the pompously named Climate Change Committee – would say that, wouldn’t he?
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Communities opposed to wind turbines in their local area do not have an “acceptable moral position” according to a climate change expert.

Dozens of large-scale wind farm applications are being considered as Wales tries to reach net zero, says BBC News.

Campaigners say the ambition is putting the Welsh countryside at risk and south Wales already has several wind farms.

Giant UK offshore wind farm ‘at risk without government support’

The government talks about ‘investment’ in renewables. So-called cheap wind energy holds out the begging bowl again.
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Rising supply chain costs and other financial pressures are threatening the development of what could be the world’s largest offshore wind farm off the coast of Britain, says Energy Live News.

The Hornsea Three Offshore Wind Farm is expected to have a capacity of almost 3GW and generate [Talkshop comment – on a good day] enough energy to power three million homes.

Energy giant Orsted, which is behind the construction of the massive wind farm, has said it needs more government support to achieve project progress.

In a statement, Duncan Clark, Head of Orsted UK & Ireland, said: “Since the auction, there has been an extraordinary combination of increased interest rates and supply chain prices.

“Industry is doing everything it can to manage costs on these projects but there is a real and growing risk of them being put on hold or even handing back their CfDs.”

Mr Clark has called on the government to offer targeted support on investments such as tax breaks.

A government spokesperson told ELN: “The government is encouraging investment in renewable generation including through £30 billion to support the green industrial revolution…”

Full article here.

Britons paying hundreds of millions to turn off wind turbines as network can’t handle the power they make on the windiest days

Electricity transmission [credit: green lantern electric]

Not a new story, but problems are getting worse thanks to net zero obsessions. Why authorise new capacity in areas where transmission lines are known to be inadequate?
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UK consumers are paying hundreds of millions of pounds to turn wind turbines off because the grid cannot deal with how much electricity they make on the windiest days, says Sky News.

The energy regulator Ofgem has told Sky News it is because the grid is “not yet fit for purpose” as the country transitions to a clean power system by 2035.

The National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO), which is responsible for keeping the lights on, has forecast that these “constraint costs”, as they are known, may rise to as much as £2.5bn per year by the middle of this decade before the necessary upgrades are made.

The problem has arisen as more and more wind capacity is built in Scotland and in the North Sea but much of the demand for electricity continues to come from more densely populated areas in the south of the country.

I can’t feel fingertips after rowing in Antarctic seas

Scotia Sea, Antarctica [image credit: Antarctic96]

Midsummer in the Antarctic – no picnic.
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Adventurer Jamie Douglas-Hamilton says his latest rowing challenge in the world’s most treacherous waters has left him in the worst pain he has ever felt, reports BBC News.

“I still can’t feel my fingertips and can’t wiggle my toes,” he says.

“I couldn’t even walk to the bathroom from my bed without hanging on to things along the way.”

Jamie was part of a crew of six who battled 30ft (10m) waves, crippling seasickness, icy cold winds and constant terror in Antarctica’s Southern Ocean and Scotia Sea.

Why the intermittency problem can’t be solved – Net Zero Watch

[image credit: latinoamericarenovable.com]

In short – costs and practicality.
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I often ask renewables enthusiasts to explain what we are supposed to do when the wind isn’t blowing if we can’t fall back on fossil fuels, says Andrew Montford @ Net Zero Watch.

The other day, I pressed James Murray, the editor of Business Green magazine, what forms of storage he thought we could use, and this is what he said:

Continued here.

Merseyside’s ‘mega-battery’ is switched on – and here come the extravagant claims

Big battery fire [image credit: reneweconomy.com.au

The so-called savings come from *not* paying some of the constraint costs of excess wind energy production. The Sky News headline about saving ‘billions’ turns out to mean some unknown time in the future when many more such installations might be online. They ignore the fact that batteries have a limited life span and, being lithium-ion types, can suffer expensive or even disastrous overheating problems.
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It looks like a self-storage park: rows of shipping containers in a patch of Merseyside waste ground, says Sky News.

But appearances can be deceptive as this is the first step in saving billions of pounds off bills and millions of tonnes of carbon.

It’s a mega-battery.

Arctic blast brings record cold to the US

Ouch! The ‘rapidly warming’ Arctic, as climate alarmists like to claim, can still pack a hefty punch. Weren’t such days supposed to be over, in theory at least?
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Weather authorities say an “epic, generational Arctic outbreak” caused record cold temperatures and life-threatening conditions in the northeastern United States on Saturday, reports DW.com.

The summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire reported a low of minus 78 Celsius (minus 108 Fahrenheit) — the coldest temperature ever recorded in the United States.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Caribou, Maine, said it received reports of “frostquakes.”

Why have there been no named winter storms this year? – BBC

Omega blocking highs can remain in place for several days or even weeks [image credit: UK Met Office]

Bring on the loaded questions, such as ‘How does climate change affect windstorms?’ The BBC casts around for suspects, like La Niña and meandering polar jet streams, but it’s all inconclusive. Are the ‘extreme weather’ climate obsessives feeling deprived?
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By February, the UK would normally have had around three storms given names by the Met Office – just like Arwen, Barra and Callum, says BBC News.

But so far this autumn and winter, there hasn’t been a single one.

Weather patterns have been calmer across the Atlantic and towards northwest Europe. But why?