‘Just too expensive.’ Who knew?

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

H/t David Dohbro


Another bright idea bites the dust!!

If you look back at history, you will see that it is littered with ideas that failed. It is of course the successful we are all benefitting from now.

What is different is that in those days it was not governments who picked the winners and losers.

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[image credit: imagineeringezine.com]

[image credit: imagineeringezine.com]

Only two questions are needed here:

(1) What is the period of a Jupiter(J)-Saturn(S)-Earth(E) (JSE) triple conjunction?
JSE = 21 J-S or 382 J-E or 403 S-E conjunctions (21+382 = 403) in 417.166 years (as an average or mean value).

(2) What is the period of a Jupiter(J)-Saturn(S)-Venus(V) (JSV) triple conjunction?
JSV = 13 J-S or 398 J-V or 411 S-V conjunctions (13+398 = 411) in 258.245 years (as an average or mean value).

Since JSV = 13 J-S and JSE = 21 J-S, the ratio of JSV:JSE is 13:21 exactly (in theory).

As these are consecutive Fibonacci numbers, the ratio is almost 1:Phi or the golden ratio.
Golden ratio: relationship to Fibonacci sequence

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[credit: Wikipedia]

[credit: Wikipedia]

More pseudo-religious climate nonsense in Thursday’s Guardian:

Quote: ‘James Inhofe, infamous for tossing a snowball across the Senate floor to demonstrate ‘the greatest hoax ever perpetrated against the American people’, says Pope Francis should ‘stay with his job’ during a pitch to fellow unbelievers

The Guardian report later says: ‘In the world outside, anticipation was building for the pope to deliver his much-awaited encyclical next week, when he is expected to cast climate change as a moral issue.’

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NASA 'global warming satellite' (their description)  [credit: NASA]

NASA ‘global warming satellite’ (their description)
[credit: NASA]

Two choices: whether to laugh or cry at the latest fortune-telling exercise from NASA’s warming-obsessed spin-doctors. Climate models are famed for their predictive inadequacy – incompetence even – so this looks exactly like an exercise in futility.

NASA has released a dataset setting out how rainfall and temperature patterns are likely to change in the coming decades, Gizmag reports. The data covers 21 climate models, mapping how our environment could change due to growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

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[credit: NASA]

[credit: NASA]

A few weeks ago we put up a post to discuss the role of convection in the Earth’s atmosphere:
Beginner’s guide to convection cells

The introduction, linked to a short video, said:
‘When you warm air, it rises. Cool air will sink. This process of convection can lead to flows in the atmosphere, in a manner that we can illustrate [see video] on a small scale. Warm and cool air in a fish tank rise and fall; this motion is made visible by adding fog. Ultimately, the motion leads to a convection cell, with air rising, moving to the side, falling, and moving back. This heat-driven motion of air moves heat around in the atmosphere. It is also responsible for making the wind blow.’

That may have seemed straightforward to some, but a few hundred comments later controversy continues, so we’re starting a new post using this website for reference : Lapse Rate, Moisture, Clouds and Thunderstorms

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Paris climate conference - get ready for this

Paris climate conference – get ready for this

Scottish Sceptic has an amusing piece about the forthcoming climate charade in Paris, which looks like being as full of hot air as it is empty of credible substance:

There’s a boringly familiar pattern to these climate talks in Paris. The rhetoric is all about making deals, but the reality is that everyone is backpedalling furiously behind the scenes trying the darnest to prevent any serious deal getting made. But what is different this time is that if anything the parties are being far more open in their desire not to come to any deal this time than all the previous clown fests from Jokenhagen onward.

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Since I can, maybe, I decided to sell the new software a pup…

Goes likes this: plot RSSTLT and UAHTLT6 with the do not delete file flag, import both CSV into spreadsheet, subtract, change some text, export as CSV, start hacking, add a way to accept an alien file, and yay, it works.


Figure 1, RSSTLT less UAHTLT V6, forced plot range, unweighted

Any no data in either is no data, otherwise verbatim.
Force range is about that Himalayas spike in RSS, autoscale sees it but is so extreme a manual reduces the range, value clips to maximum colour, no change. (in a global sense one cell is gnats pee)

PDF for pan and zoom is here (283kB)
I can do a version with annotated temperatures if requested, large file. If names want this, expect you have my email.

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RSS temperatures for May 2015 in pictures

Posted: June 10, 2015 by tchannon in weather

UAH seem late this month, RSS is out. Nothing unusual.


Figure 1, Global mean computed from data used exactly matches official.

What follows is the works for RSS.

I’ll be explaining weighted later on. The point is attempting an honest representation.

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Oops, June frosts

Posted: June 9, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A few gardeners will be unhappy about the notorious June frosts appearing during 2015 but I suspect not severe enough to damage much but it will check growth.


Note too how the wind caps temperature rise.

Ground frosts provided they are brief rarely cause damage, air frost is a different matter. Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, England were all cold where the wind was able to fall calm. We are almost at the longest day of the year so nights are brief, dawn is plain at 4am BST minimising the time for cooling.

We have had a series of pleasant days but rather cool at night, continuing, although a change in the weather is expected. Tends to be lovely sunny after dawn, then clouds turn up. We get a summer? Hopefully soon.

I noticed the house thermostat was calling for heat last night, if it did (is switched off at night) would have been brief… looks a nice day but outside the wind says cool.

Katesbridge dipped to -1C last night, an air frost. Aonach Mo wasn’t far behind, with a wind, not calm but that’s Scotland and 3000ft up. Eskdalemuir came very close, 1000ft, Shap, Bala, and so on. Plenty of places were cold enough for a ground frost.

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The manufactured paranoia about threats to public water supplies from ‘fracking’ methods used to extract gas and oil turns out to be mostly hot air. Occasional problems have been due to mistakes basically.

Natural gas companies, people with property and/or mineral rights overlying shale formations containing commercial deposits of natural gas or oil, and American consumers breathed a sigh of relief last week when the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its much anticipated report concerning the potential threat fracking poses to water supplies. The EPA found fracking only rarely results in water contamination, and even then it is mainly due to operator error or poor practices not to the method of oil and gas production itself.

According to the four year, multi-million dollar report, 1,399 page report, the EPA, “did not find evidence that these mechanisms [hydraulic fracturing] have led to widespread, systemic impacts on drinking water resources in the United States.”

Full story: Fracking Poses Minimal Risk to Water Supplies Concludes EPA | Heartlander Magazine.



All hail the Great Wall of Swansea! What could possibly go wrong?

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood



I reported back in February on plans for a tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay. Evidently the plans are moving closer to fruition.

The BBC report:

A £300m deal to build the six-mile wall for the world’s first tidal lagoon power plant in Swansea Bay has been awarded to a company from China.

China Harbour Engineering Company will open a base in the UK and spend half of the contract’s value on a British workforce, partners and supply chain.

Prime Minister David Cameron said the deal was “win-win” for both countries.

About 1,850 construction jobs could be created by the £1bn lagoon project, which could operate from 2018.

Mark Shorrock, chief executive of Tidal Lagoon Power, said: “I have worked in China, speak Chinese and have huge esteem for China’s delivery capability and ability to deliver projects to time and budget.”

The two firms could also work…

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Variation in sunspot properties between 1999 and 2014

R. Rezaei1, C. Beck, A. Lagg, J. M. Borrero, W. Schmidt and M. Collados

A&A Volume 578, June 2015 Article Number A43
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201425557
Published online 01 June 2015
Open access with registration


Aims. We study the variation in the magnetic field strength, area, and continuum intensity of umbrae in solar cycles 23 and 24.

Conclusions. The umbral brightness decreases in the rising stage of a solar cycle, but increases from maximum toward the end of the cycle. Our results do not indicate a drastic change of the solar cycle toward a grand minimum in the near future.

Specifically disagrees with Livingson et.al. concluding the weak trending lower is too minor for there to be much change on the horizon.

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Snowy Boston 2015

Snowy Boston 2015

Despite the fact that former climate guru James Hansen conceded there had been a temperature standstill in the current century, it’s now claimed by the NOAA that it was all a myth.

A reported pause in global warming—a mystery that has vexed scientists and delighted contrarians—was an illusion based on inadequate data, U.S. government researchers reported Thursday.

The findings by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) researchers that there was no warming “hiatus” over the past 15 years could reshape consensus science on recent climate change. The research undercuts an argument of pundits and politicians who oppose taking action.

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Antarctic sea ice sets new high In May

Posted: June 4, 2015 by oldbrew in Analysis, Dataset, sea ice
Tags: ,

Tabular iceberg in the Weddell Sea [credit: British Antarctic Survey]

Tabular iceberg in the Weddell Sea [credit: British Antarctic Survey]

These Antarctic headlines are becoming almost routine, but still worth noting in view of all the propaganda telling us the world is supposed to be warming.

This is a comparison of data for the month of May only, stretching back to 1979. In the files linked at the end of the reportingclimatescience.com report (see ‘Source’ in original), there are separate figures for ‘extent’ and ‘area’, with an explanation of the difference (see Arctic file).

The lowest May figures (since 1979) for both polar regions were recorded in 2006, but the Antarctic was 12% above the long-term May average this year.

Report: Antarctic Sea Ice Sets New High In May.

Comparison of the eight brightest TNOs [credit: Wikipedia]

Comparison of the eight brightest TNOs [credit: Wikipedia]

As Pluto is getting some media attention due to the impending ‘fly-by’ of a NASA space probe, let’s take a look at its orbital relationship with its neighbours.

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The Lovejoy Meltdown

Posted: June 1, 2015 by oldbrew in solar system dynamics
Tags: ,


Tim Cullen analyses the ‘comet that didn’t die’ and gives the Roche limit and other cherished concepts of ‘settled science’ a sharp poke in the ribs.

Originally posted on MalagaBay:

The Lovejoy Meltdown

In December 2011 the mainstream huddled around their computers to watch the fiery death of the Sun grazing Comet Lovejoy [designated C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy)] as it approached perihelion.

But when Comet Lovejoy emerged from the behind the Sun [on its return journey] the mainstream realised they were actually watching the meltdown of Settled Science.

Comet Lovejoy was discovered by Terry Lovejoy on 27th November 2011 and it was subsequently determined to be a member of the Kreutz family of sun grazing comets.

Terry Lovejoy

The Kreutz Sungrazers are a family of sungrazing comets, characterized by orbits taking them extremely close to the Sun at perihelion.

They are believed to be fragments of one large comet that broke up several centuries ago and are named for German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who first demonstrated that they were related.

A Kreutz Sungrazers’s aphelion is about 160 AU from the Sun; these sungrazers make…

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moon-cartoonWASHINGTON, May 28, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — NASA will host a media teleconference at 1 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 3, to discuss the Hubble Space Telescope’s surprising observations of how Pluto’s moons behave, and how these new discoveries are being used in the planning for the New Horizons Pluto flyby in July.

Participants in the teleconference will be:

  • John Grunsfeld, associate administrator for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington
  • Mark Showalter, senior research scientist at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California
  • Douglas Hamilton, professor of astronomy at the University of Maryland, College Park
  • John Spencer, scientist at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado
  • Heidi Hammel, executive vice president of the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington

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Paul Vaughan has produced a six page .pdf document crammed with the fruits of his research into the ways in which solar variation affects Earth’s climate. Several of the observations and concepts coincide with the work we have been doing here at the talkshop over the last six years to unravel the mysteries of solar system dynamics and their effect on Terrestrial variation. Paul has applied his stats and visualisation skills and thorough approach to referencing, including direct links to data. This has resulted in a landmark document which readers will find both useful and inspiring. It demonstrates the progress that has been made in solar-terrestrial theory, (with hints about the underlying planetary solar relations too).



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This repost of Ian Wilson’s Jan 1st article at his Astro-Climate-Connection blog continues development of his hypothesis that the Moon triggers El Nino events. This is relevant as we are currently on the cusp of El Nino, which may develop as the year goes on. Ian predicted El Nino for later this year in a comment here last year, based on his investigations.

The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 – 1963 to 1994
Jan 1st 2015 : Ian Wilson PhD

A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks up into six 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The second 31 year interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 – Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 – 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 – 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 – 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025
The hypothesis that the 31/62 year seasonal tidal cycle plays a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niño events leads one to reasonably expect that tidal effects for the following three epochs:
New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 – Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

Relevant to current discussions on the talkshop concerning changes in Earth’s length of day (LOD) and the effect of planetary orbital resonances on the Moon’s orbital parameters and Earth climatic variation; this is a repost from Ian Wilson’s excellent Astro-Climate-Connection website. Ian very generously opens with a hat tip to this blog, (at which he is one of the ‘collaborators’ he mentions). 

Connecting the Planetary Periodicities to Changes in the Earth’s LOD
Monday, October 14, 2013 : Ian Wilson PhD

[(*) Some of the findings in this blog post concerning the connection between the Earth’s rotation rate and the planetary configurations have also been independently discovered by Rog “Tallbloke” Tattersall and his collaborators]

A. The Connection Between Extreme Pergiean Spring Tides and Long-term Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate as Measured by the Rate-of-Change of its Length-of-Day (LOD). (*)

If you plot the rate of change of the Earth’s Length of Day (LOD) [with the short-term atmospheric component removed] against time [starting in 1962] you find that there is a ~ 6 year periodicity that is phase-locked with the 6 year period that it takes the lunar line-of-nodes  to re-align with the lunar line-of-apse [see the first note directly below and reference [1] for a description of the method used to determine the time rate of change of LOD].

NB: The pro-grade precession of the lunar line-of-apse once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 8.8504 Julian years (J2000) while the retrograde precession of the lunar line-of-apse line-of-nodes once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 18.6000 Julian years (J2000). Hence, the lunar line-of-apse and the ascending node of the lunar line-of-nodes will realign once every:

(18.6000 x 8.8504) / (18.6000 + 8.8504)  = 5.9969 Julian years

Figure 1


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