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Image Copyright Roger Kidd under CC

The House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, 12 March 2015

The Government has managed to “keep the lights on”, but buying in extra ‘safety net’ capacity at short notice has brought costs for the taxpayer and the environment, concludes a Lords report out today.

The House of Lords Science and Technology Committee declares that the Government should not be congratulated on keeping the lights on. Its report, entitled ‘The Resilience of the Electricity System’, says it is not acceptable for an advanced economy, hugely dependent on electricity, to sail so close to the wind. It found that we have been forced to generate extra capacity in the system, using expensive measures with heavy reliance on fossil fuel generation. The report urges the Government to improve its long-term planning to avoid squeezing the capacity margin like this.

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climate-rant

Image courtesy of Jo Nova

Following Naomi Oreskes message last week, now I’ve had the film director emailing me!

>Director Robert Kenner
> wrote:
>
> Dear Roger,
>
> People who mislead the public on climate change should not be on TV. Period.
>
> That’s one big reason why I produced Merchants of Doubt, a film that lays
> bare the greedy, shameful world of climate denial and the journalists who
> broadcast it. That’s also why, right now, we’re launching a people-powered
> national campaign that could keep climate deniers out of the news for good.
>
> Merchants of Doubt premieres in U.S. theaters today, and it will invite
> thousands of energized viewers to sign this petition and join our campaign.
> Let’s lead the charge!
>
> Join me to tell TV network and cable news directors: Stop booking “merchants
> of doubt” on your programs immediately.

My response:

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The Albedo of Earth

Posted: March 10, 2015 by Andrew in atmosphere, Clouds

image“An important new paper finds that the albedo of Earth is highly regulated, mostly by clouds, with some surprising consequences”.

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tallbloke:

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I wonder if we should take a closer look at this paper to try to work out if this is cockup or coverup. Are these incorrect zenith angles a fudge to cover some other model deficiency for example?

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Earth’s_Energy_Budget_Incoming_Solar_Radiation_NASA Incoming solar radiation at the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA)

It was just yesterday that we highlighted this unrealistic claim from CMIP5 models: Laughable modeling study claims: in the middle of ‘the pause’, ‘climate is starting to change faster’. Now it seems that there is a major flaw in how the CMIP5 models treat incoming solar radiation, causing up to 30 Watts per square meter of spurious variations. To give you an idea of just how much of an error that is, the radiative forcing claimed to exist from carbon dioxide increases is said to be about 1.68 watts per square meter, a value about 18 times smaller than the error in the CMIP5 models!

The HockeySchtick writes:

New paper finds large calculation errors of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere in climate models

A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds astonishingly large…

View original 453 more words

Image credit: Spaceflight now

Image credit: Spaceflight Now

NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) – a stack of four identical satellites sat atop the Atlas 5 rocket, is set for launch this Thursday.

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The fuss about extreme rainfall last year tripped me into looking for myself. This led to an innovative analysis of Met Office areal time series for precipitation. There was little interest shown but also little criticism. I’m bringing up Windows 8.1 64 here, same hardware, testing various codebases.
As a wonder-if… the Met Office publish areal series for air temperature, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin. Daft idea, pull one file and eyeball, looks the same data format as rainfall. Do the lazy thing, copy code to a new directory, few trivial edits and hit go. It works. The results look sane.
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Tmean for East Scotland, one of 68 plots. The four PDF, Tmean, Tmax, Tmin and Precipitation are linked later. Zoom to any scale works on what are postscript vector data, details can be seen.

A take-home from seeing the results is the episodic nature of weather. Mostly it is bouncing around as weather does but also there are sustained periods with less noise and perhaps floods or droughts, warm or chilly. The temperature data says we have recently had cool and then warm episode. Where this is notable it seems to last for around a year, as-if anything is a definite rule.

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Go grab your free content while it’s free. :)

royalsoc350

It was the scientific skeptics who bucked the ‘consensus’ and said the Earth was round.
By Richard McNider And John Christy Updated Feb. 19, 2014

In a Feb. 16 speech in Indonesia, Secretary of State John Kerry assailed climate-change skeptics as members of the “Flat Earth Society” for doubting the reality of catastrophic climate change. He said, “We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists” and “extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts.” But who are the Flat Earthers, and who is ignoring the scientific facts?

ChristyMT_GL_102_Models

In ancient times, the notion of a flat Earth was the scientific consensus, and it was only a minority who dared question this belief. We are among today’s scientists who are skeptical about the so-called consensus on climate change. Does that make us modern-day Flat Earthers, as Mr. Kerry suggests, or are we among those who defy the prevailing wisdom to declare that the world is round?

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Gold in them there windmills
The Telegraph
Christopher Booker
21 February 2015

The BBC didn’t tell us all the facts in its excitement about a vast new offshore wind farm, writes Christopher Booker

offshore-wind-farm-clouds-wake effectThe BBC naturally got very excited by the news that Ed Davey, our Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, has given the go-ahead to the largest offshore wind farm in the world – 400 monster turbines covering 436 square miles of the North Sea.

What the BBC didn’t mention was that this £8 billion project, producing on average 840 megawatts of electricity, will earn for its mainly Norwegian and German owners some £900 million a year in subsidies, paid by all of us through our electricity bills.

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Drill into Mars for clues to Earth’s climate

Posted: March 5, 2015 by oldbrew in Astrophysics, climate
Tags:
River Thames in 1677

River Thames in 1677

New Scientist has a new angle on the Little Ice Age, asking: ‘Can Martian holes give climate clues?’

Digging a hole on another world may settle a nagging question about Earth’s climate.

From about 1300 to 1870, much of the Earth is thought to have endured a long cold snap dubbed the Little Ice Age. If such a freeze occurred, it is usually blamed on a dip in solar activity, but there are other suspects such as volcanoes.

If the sun was responsible, we should see evidence of it across the solar system, says Ralph Lorenz of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab in Laurel, Maryland. To settle the debate, he suggests digging a hole on Mars to see if it, too, had an ice age around that time.

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Back in 1987, Robert M Wilson of NASA’s Space Science Laboratory in Huntsville published this paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. It’s important to our solar-planetary theory because it shows that the Sun is bi-modal in terms of its solar cycle lengths. They cluster around  periods of a little over ten and a little under twelve years. These periods correlate to the periods of Jupiter-Earth-Venus syzygy cycles and Jupiter’s orbital period respectively. Leif Svalgaard vehemently denied this correlation when I pointed it out to him a few years ago.

rob-wilson-bimodal-sun

The same correlation was noted by independent researcher Timo Niroma in 1989, who conducted his own survey and analysis of solar cycle lengths. He produced this simple ascii-art graphic to present his results.

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Statement by Willie Soon

Posted: March 2, 2015 by Andrew in solar system dynamics

Originally posted on JunkScience.com:

(March 2, 2015) — Dr. Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics released the following statement through The Heartland Institute in response to repeated attacks on his character and scientific integrity.

View original 533 more words

You have to laugh, there’s some serious conspiracy ideation going on here, and precious little science.:

From: Professor Naomi Oreskes <xxx@xxxxxxxx.xxx>
To:
Roger Tattersall <xxx@xxxxxx.xxx>
Date:

14:10

Slugging the Kool-aid again Naomi?

Slugging the Kool-aid again Naomi?

Dear Roger,

When I wrote the book Merchants of Doubt in 2010, I only wanted one thing: to uncover the truth about who was behind the widespread, and sadly, effective, campaigns to undermine the established science of climate change, and why they were doing what they were doing.

I never imagined that, a few years later, Sony Pictures would release Merchants of Doubt, a captivating feature film that exposes the ugly world of climate denial like never before.

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Exoplanet analysis is a growing field of scientific study as data pours in from the likes of NASA’s successful Kepler probe.

The abstract of a new paper explains its focus on this data:
‘Mean motion resonances and near-resonances up to the outer/inner orbital period ratio’s value of 5 and the denominator 4 are tested for all adjacent exoplanet orbits.’

Without delving into the nuts and bolts of the analysis here, let’s look at the list of results (click on image to view details):

By Marian C. Ghilea (2015)

By Marian C. Ghilea (2015)

The column ‘resonance type’ shows the planet:planet ratios we’re interested in.
Clearly there are many examples, although ‘near resonances’ are also included.

From the author’s concluding remarks:
‘Performing a simple analysis, the resonance or near-resonance states present in all the multiplanetary systems known to date can be found numerically using a computer analysis tool.’

‘The first results, presented in this paper, suggest different resonance or near-resonance distributions for different planet categories. The resonance/near resonance numbers of 2/1 and 3/2 appear to be dominant for the planets with larger masses while the 5/3 resonance seems to be the most common for terrestrial planets and mini neptunes. For giant planets, the 2/1 resonances are dominating at larger distances from the host star while the 3/2 resonance is more common at close distances from it. Resonances for values higher than 5/2 are encountered
only for planets with masses larger than 10 (ME*)’ [*Earth masses].

We can see from this that these ‘near resonances’ crop up regularly in exoplanet systems just as they do in our solar system e.g. Jupiter-Saturn 5:2, Neptune-Pluto 3:2.

Whatever the mechanism(s) involved, the frequency of their appearance can’t be regarded as accidental.

***
See also the Wikipedia page on orbital resonance

Well known hockeyjockey Michael Mann has a post up on Huffpo, claiming the ‘hiatus’ or ‘plateau’ in global warming which he says doesn’t exist, only happened because oscillations. To prove this he introduces a new one, which he calls the NMO. I think it stands for Numerically Magical Obfuscation.

amo-pmo-nmo

NMO is derived from some twisty manipulation of the AMO (in blue) and the PMO (in green).

Just because Mann ‘invented’ the AMO doesn’t mean he gets to fiddle with the underlying data does it?

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Head to head Bloggies

Posted: March 1, 2015 by tchannon in Blog

The Bloggie Finalists for 2015

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I assume double finalist will come as a surprise to Paul Homewood who is on a roll at the moment.

RealClimate and WUWT in the same finalist catagory, oops, again. :-)

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Solar cycle 4b, support from 10BE proxy

Posted: February 28, 2015 by tchannon in Solar physics

One of the unsolved solar mysteries is the peculiar behaviour around year 1800. The data we have is poor leading to ambiguity on whether a solar sunspot cycle is missing from the record.

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Figures from paper. For a legible copy you will need to register and download the PDF.

The lost sunspot cycle: New support from 10Be measurements
C. Karoff, F. Inceoglu, M. F. Knudsen, J. Olsen, A. Fogtmann-Schulz
A&A 575 A77 (2015)
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201424927
(early preview with registration)

ABSTRACT

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tallbloke:

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Tsk, weather eh?

Originally posted on sunshine hours:

1913 Low Min Records Broken in Last 7 Days (272 tied)  according to the NOAA.

Below is a screenshot showing location and the biggest difference between old record and new record.

The list is just the ones I could capture in a screenshot. Wow. Many records broken by over 30F.

Imagine … the old record was 15F and it is now -23F. A 38F difference.

Capture

View original

Cruithne's orbit of the Sun   [credit: GravitySimulator.com]

Cruithne’s orbit of the Sun
[credit: GravitySimulator.com]

‘One day, Cruithne could be a practice site for landing humans on asteroids’ says a report at phys.org . Why so?

‘Cruithne has an orbit that stretches from the orbit of Mercury to beyond the orbit of Mars. But remarkably, Cruithne’s period is almost exactly the same as Earth’s. This sets the table for some interesting orbital interactions.’ – quoting GravitySimulator.com.

Phys.org takes up the story:
We all know and love the moon. We’re so assured that we only have one that we don’t even give it a specific name. It is the brightest object in the night sky, and amateur astronomers take great delight in mapping its craters and seas. To date, it is the only other heavenly body with human footprints.

What you might not know is that the moon is not the Earth’s only natural satellite. As recently as 1997, we discovered that another body, 3753 Cruithne, is what’s called a quasi-orbital satellite of Earth. This simply means that Cruithne doesn’t loop around the Earth in a nice ellipse in the same way as the moon, or indeed the artificial satellites we loft into orbit. Instead, Cruithne scuttles around the inner solar system in what’s called a “horseshoe” orbit.

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Sorry folks [image credit: wikia]

Sorry folks [image credit: wikia]

The Guardian newspaper finally facing up to climate reality? Well, after a fashion. Their global warming can may have been kicked down the road for a while, that’s all.

The idea that natural variation could make temperatures go up as well as down is still not for discussion in their biased climate world.

H/T Lord Beaverbrook.

Guardian report: Manmade global warming over the past decade has probably been partly offset by the cooling effect of natural variability in the Earth’s climate system, a team of climate researchers have concluded.

The finding could help explain the slowdown in temperature rises this century that climate sceptics have seized on as evidence climate change has stopped, even though 14 of the 15 hottest years on record have happened since 2000.

The authors of the new paper describe the slowdown, sometimes called a global warming hiatus or pause, as a “false pause”. They warn that the natural cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic that they found are currently having an overall cooling effect on temperatures will reverse in the coming decades – at which point warming will accelerate again.

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