As I promised here is the result from the thermal radiation instruments where as expected little was seen through light cloud.


Figure 1. CNR1 radiometer. (two pairs, looking up/down, short/long wavelength)

There is a minor effect during the eclipse. I live close by where the sun could be made out through light cloud. Around 12 hrs the cloud cleared abruptly. Video taken at Chilbolton shows similarly sudden sunshine.

Two factors in figure 1 need comment.

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Gas imports to bunker Europe?

Posted: April 13, 2015 by tchannon in Energy


Image (c)2011 Maasmondmaritime [1]

We are told that gas is too expensive, we are told Russia is a bogey man and so on.

Then I find a bizarre news feed item linking to

Two LNG tankers set to arrive in Rotterdam and Zeebrugge
(Reuters) – Two liquefied natural gas tankers are heading towards the Dutch port of Rotterdam and Belgium’s Zeebrugge, Reuters shipping data showed.

The Arctic Voyager tanker is set to arrive in Rotterdam on April 17, while the Al Utouriya[2] should arrive in Zeebrugge around May 1.

So? Why put up a cryptic news story?

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Dr Michele Casati is familiar to many Talkshop readers as an occassional contributor and for his blog.

A new study is being presented at EGU General Assembly 2015, held 12April – 15April, 2015 in Vienna, Austria

Relationship between major geophysical events and the planetary magnetic Ap index, from 1844 to the present

Michele,Casati; Valentino,Straser


In this study, for the first time, we compared the annual magnetic Ap index, taken from original sources, from 1844 to the present day [Svalgaard,2014], with:

i) sixteen large volcanic eruptions of index VEI5 + recorded by, Smithsonian Institute (Global Volcanism Program), ii) three sets of the volcanic aerosols data [Ammann,2003][Gao;Chaochao;Alan Robock;Caspar Ammann, 2008][Traufetter,2004] and iii) eight major earthquakes of a magnitude between 8.7<M<9.5, which occurred from 1900 to the present.

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NCAR Research Data Archive Blog

1938 atmospheric river that caused the Los Angeles flood of 1938
At least one person asked why I used a reanalysis that does not assimilate satellite water vapor data to study an atmospheric river (AR) event.

That’s a good question because the NOAA/CIRES Twentieth Century Global Reanalysis Version 2c (20thCR V2c) only ingests three things: surface pressure, sea ice coverage and sea surface temperature. The rest of the analysis is generated by the physical models of NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS).

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This failed work is presented as a cautionary tale but nevertheless there might be good parts.

Earlier oldbrew published an article on a theory by Nelson on forecasting the armada of radio propagation conditions. There were not many comments, possibly from the lack of solid further material.

From this paper, we can see why the technique fell at the hurdle. Nevertheless looking at what people were thinking and doing is important.

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The idea that shipping could be releasing heat from the oceans has not been discussed much before.

Originally posted on Science Matters:

In response to my water world post, I was shown the wonderful phrase coined by Dr. Bernaerts:

“Climate is the continuation of oceans by other means”.

In was in 1992 he wrote in Nature appealing to the Rio conference to use the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) to better manage human impacts on the oceans, and thereby address climate concerns. Needless to say, that call fell on deaf ears.

He later elaborates: “Presumably science would serve the general public better when they would listen to Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) who said: “Water is the driver of nature”. Some say that nature rules climate, but water rules the nature on this earth, and the water on earth is so synonymous with the oceans and seas that it can be said: Climate is the continuation of the oceans by other means.”

Dr. Bernaerts is certainly a man worthy of…

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The Earth is from Saturn - The Moon is from Jupiter

The concept of Axial Tilt [aka Obliquity] is very straightforward.

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Jodrell Bank radio telescope, Cheshire (UK) [credit: Mike Peel / Wikipedia]

Jodrell Bank radio telescope, Cheshire (UK)
[credit: Mike Peel / Wikipedia]

This is a new (to us) angle on certain lines of enquiry re. planetary theory in Talkshop blog posts.

John H. Nelson’s theory of propagation: Is there anything to it? – By David Dalton, K9WQ

In March 1951, John H. Nelson, an engineer for the RCA Communications Co. in New York, published an article in RCA Review describing a theory for predicting shortwave radio propagation over the North Atlantic. Nelson developed the theory by comparing planetary positions relative to the sun with logs of propagation conditions maintained at RCA’s receiving station at Riverhead, Long Island.

The article said that certain configurations of the six inner planets correlated with degraded propagation conditions. Nelson was not dogmatic about his theory. Rather, in the article and in a follow-up article published in May 1952, he encouraged further study [see footnote]. Nelson believed that his theory was about 85 percent accurate in its predictions.

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Will British landscapes head the way of areas of the US?

Will British landscapes head the way of areas of the US?

Post by Antony Nailer, reblogged  from UKIP Daily.

The environmentalists will have us believe that renewables are providing a valuable contribution to the UK energy needs and that the use of any fossil fuels is evil.  So now after years of our landscape and seascape being despoiled by huge rotating wind turbines and fields being covered with solar arrays let us consider where we now are.

Coal was at one time was a huge industry in the UK employing hundreds of thousands of people but now a shadow of its former self. It has recently been announced that one of the last two remaining mines, at Thoresbury in Nottinghamshire, is to close this year with the loss of 1300 jobs at the mine and presumably thousands more in associated supporting industry.

We still have nine coal-fired power stations that are not scheduled for closure any-time soon. There is one at Ironbridge in Shropshire due to close within the next few months and not included in the following list.

Aberthaw Barry, Glamorgan 1971 RWE npower 1500
Cottam Nottinghamshire 1969 EDF Energy 2008
Drax Selby, North Yorks 1974 Drax Group 3870
Eggborough Goole, East Riding 1967 British Energy 1960
Fiddlers Ferry Cuerdley, Cheshire 1971 SSE 1961
Ratcliffe on Soar Nottinghamshire 1968 E.ON 2000
Rugeley Staffordshire 1970 Int. Power 1006
West Burton Nottinghamshire 1968 EDF Energy 1972
Wilton Redcar & Cleveland 1951 SembCorp   197
Total continuous generation capacity 16,474MW (16.47GW). About 1/3rdof peak needs.

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Maps of sea surface temperature anomaly [credit: NOAA]

Maps of sea surface temperature anomaly [credit: NOAA]

What follows are extracts from the US NOAA’s own blog. They report: ‘After twelve months of El Niño Watches, we are issuing an El Niño Advisory.’ But the conditions are ‘extremely weak’ at this time [note: the maps shown are NOT current conditions]:

Over the last several months, we’ve seen warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including the Niño3.4 region, which we track as one indicator of El Niño. The seasonal Niño3.4 Index has been at or above 0.5°C since September, and the most recent weekly Niño3.4 index was +0.6°C.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled phenomenon, though, so we also monitor the atmosphere for signs that it is responding to those positive SST anomalies. For the last few months, we’ve been seeing some suggestions of borderline atmospheric El Niño conditions, but until this month [March] we were below that borderline. This month, we’ve finally crept above it, and thus NOAA is declaring the onset of El Niño conditions.

But what does it mean for North American and global weather?
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Exclusive – California used 70 mln gallons of water in fracking in 2014

(Reuters) – California oil producers used 214 acre-feet of water, equivalent to nearly 70 million gallons, in the process of fracking for oil and gas in the state last year, less than previously projected, state officials told Reuters on Thursday.

  1. About 100,000 gallons of water is used on average, he said
  2. Previous industry estimates said that fracking used about 100 million gallons of water in California a year.

Classic media split, can’t write 0.1 million and 100 million, oh no, too boring, confused the dear muppits.

Also the item is a correction for paragraph 5.

  1. About 100,000 gallons of water is used on average, he said.

“(This version of the story deletes reference to “per well” in paragraph 5. …” oops.

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UK Sunshine, still the Met Office talk of trend

Posted: April 5, 2015 by tchannon in weather

This is in a way complementary to a post by Paul Homewood


Figure 1. UK Sunshine hours according to Met Office areal data.

As I have been doing recently for rainfall, this is deannualised and normalised.. Filter is end corrected.

Paul Homewood has a particular interest at the moment in sunshine data, noting the Met Office have turned to record sunshine.

The result I get is slightly different because of the compensation for time of the year. December and January are dim months, sunniest is May. Using the simple meteorological mathematics and using the hard edged meteorological period of winter they found an extreme, sunniest winter in the data. See if that looks right given Figure 1. The Met Office also write “March has continued the trend”, Trend? That word is overexercised, they mean a run of four months, not unusual.

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Good question. Politics and science is a bad mix.

Originally posted on Real Science:

According to the EPA, US heatwaves are much less common and severe than they used to be.

ScreenHunter_8323 Apr. 04 15.47

High and Low Temperatures | Climate Change | US EPA

According to NOAA, violent tornadoes have declined in the US


tornadotrend.jpg (872×528)

According to NCDC, droughts have become less frequent and less severe in the US.

ScreenHunter_8325 Apr. 04 15.55

Climate at a Glance: Time Series | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

According to Rutgers University, autumn and winter snow extent is increasing in the US

ScreenHunter_8326 Apr. 04 15.57ScreenHunter_8327 Apr. 04 15.57

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

All of these things have happened as CO2 has increased.


What is it that Barack Obama is hoping to stop by making “electricity prices skyrocket?”

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China is less chuffed over coal

Posted: April 5, 2015 by tchannon in History, weather

I think think some readers will love the photos

In pictures from Aljazeera

And the text which goes with it by Adrian Brown.

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Upper reservoir (Llyn Stwlan) and dam of the Ffestiniog Pumped Storage Scheme in north Wales   [credit: Arpingstone/English Wikipedia]

Upper reservoir (Llyn Stwlan) and dam of the Ffestiniog Pumped Storage Scheme in north Wales
[credit: Arpingstone/English Wikipedia]

A seminar in London in June will ask: ‘What’s next for the grid?’ Their proposed answer is: energy storage. It will be ‘informative and insightful’ says the Institute for Engineering and Technology [IET].

How much of an additional cost burden could this place on UK electricity consumers, we might ask.

IET: The development of energy storage is vital to the sustained operation of the UK’s busy grid network, carbon grid and transport system, maintaining supply and bridging the gap in peak conditions.

Find out in greater detail how energy storage is deployed in the GB system and what the current landscape is for this technology.

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I’ve just launched an election crowdfunding campaign to help boost our chances of getting an engineer who understands energy issues and priorities, (me), into parliament.


I know I’ve had the hat out already here, but I’m hoping those who missed the last appeal might consider helping out. This is the most important UK election for many decades, and much is at stake.

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But some optimists still think global warming is about to make a comeback.

Originally posted on sunshine hours:

Antarctica set a daily record for day 91. The old record was from 2014 and was broken by only 12,000 sq km.

This would be the 21st Daily Record for 2015.

The “streak” just shows the place for each day so for example Jan 1 was 2nd highest, Jan 2 was a record etc :



Global_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_91_1981-2010  Arctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_91_1981-2010

DataSouth / North

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Plant found to prefer pollination during the full moon

Posted: April 2, 2015 by oldbrew in moon
Ephedra cones [image: Wikipedia]

Ephedra cones [image: Wikipedia]

The obvious question is: how do they detect that the full moon is happening? reports:- A pair of researchers with Stockholm University has discovered a species of Ephedra—a plant that is dependent on the full moon for pollination. In their paper published in The Royal Society Biology Letters, Catarina Rydin and Kristina Bolinder describe how they came upon their findings nearly by accident and the research they conducted afterwards that backed up their suspicions.

To reproduce, plants produce pollen which is carried (by wind, insects, animals, etc.) to other plants of its kind where it fertilizes seeds. As the research pair note, species of Ephedra are pollinated via both insects and the wind, but only one thus far (Ephedra foeminea) prefers pollination by full moonlight. The two made this discovery after a fruitless study of the plants in Greece and Croatia, it hit them that the plants might be waiting for more light from the moon— E. foeminea was already known to be pollinated by nocturnal insects, perhaps they had found they had better luck when there was more moonlight. They returned to the Balkans during the time period when the moon would be full, and found fields that looked like they were full of twinkling diamonds. Intrigued, they returned to Sweden and began studying records of the plant and found a correlation between pollination times for the plants and full moon periods.

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WELL, here we go then – the Prime Minister has been to see the Queen and the election starting gun has been fired.

Nigel Farage

“If you want to scrap the green levies that flow from the Climate Change Act 2008 and push up your gas and electricity bills then don’t expect the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems to offer you that choice. But we will.”


PUBLISHED in the Daily Express: 00:01, Tue, Mar 31, 2015

It has been a long time coming and believe it or not I have tried to keep a relatively low profile in the pre-campaign skirmishes because I am saving all my best lines for the campaign proper.

Now I know you are a freethinking bunch and will make your own minds up about who to vote for as all the key arguments are put and policies are unveiled.

But I can tell you this – Ukip will make sure that many of the causes this great newspaper and its readers have pursued with such vigour are presented as choices on the ballot paper for the first time in many years.

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A resent post by Roger and comments thereon led to my  realising there are misunderstandings on the intepretation of the polar field relationships.

Wilcox Observatory[1] measure and publish a time series of the solar polar magnetic field, a difficult measurement. Started 31st May 1976, data point every 10 days.


Figure 1, straight plot of f10.7 radio noise[3] as a proxy for solar activity and mean solar polar magnetic field[1].

Firstly here are some clarification notes.

The polar field is not the interplanetary field[6] indirectly associated with terrestrial cosmic ray flux. This field at earth roughly follows the F10.7 / sunspot shape, is very noisy.

Neither is it the Livingstone & Penn[2] finding about the change in sunspot magnetic field possibly reducing with time.

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