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ENSO: What chance a 2014 El Nino?

Posted: March 23, 2014 by tallbloke in Forecasting, Natural Variation, weather

Here’s the BOM’s sub surface monitor output for the Pacific ocean: Here’s the WMO forecast: Current Situation and Outlook The tropical Pacific continues to be ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Model forecasts and expert opinion suggest that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the second quarter of 2014. Current model outlooks further […]

Here is a plot from the Australian Bureau of Meterology (BOM) which shows subsurface water temperature in the equatorial Pacific over the last four months. The sub surface warm pool is melting away. I think this indicates that a Christmas 2012 El Nino event is unlikely. I expect the Aug UAH anomaly will still look […]

I’ve been challenged a couple of times by Bob Tisdale to substantiate my claim that ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is related to the solar cycle. I have said that El Nino tends to start occurring on the declining side of the cycle, the big ones at or just after solar minimum. I’ve prepared a […]

El Nino and the solar cycle

Posted: February 6, 2010 by tallbloke in Uncategorized

As you can see from the chart below, El Nino tends to occur away from the peak of the solar cycle. One of the outcomes of this is that the solar cycle’s effect on temperature gets underestimated, because El Nino lifts global temperature at times of low solar activity, and is suppressed at times of […]

Instead of promoting meaningless climate thresholds, targets etc., alarmists might want to take a closer look at the neglected topic of natural factors. – – – A new study demonstrates how a prolonged warming pause or even global cooling may happen in coming years despite increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases — caused by natural […]

Climate models are too unreliable to be any serious guide to the future, as the author points out. But getting decision makers to understand that is near-impossible in many countries, hence the acceptance of alarmist nonsense. – – – Shock, horror: According to the WMO and the Met Office, there is a 3% chance of […]

Why Phi? – a lunar evection model

Posted: November 16, 2018 by oldbrew in Fibonacci, moon, Phi, solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

Lunar evection has been described as the solar perturbation of the lunar orbit. One lunar evection is the beat period of the synodic month and the full moon cycle. The result is that it should average about 31.811938 days (45809.19 minutes). Comparing synodic months (SM), anomalistic months (AM), and lunar evections (LE) with the full […]

‘Official’ climate science response: claim satellite data is not reliable, and play shoot-the-messenger. Predictable, as the results obviously don’t fit theories of man-made warming. H/T The GWPF Global warming has not accelerated temperature rise in the bulk atmosphere in more than two decades, according to a new study funded by the Department of Energy. University […]

I posted the short comment below in reply to a blog post by Richard Telford The first thing to do before making any stats tests is to consider how the physical mechanism may work. If the relatively high solar activity of the C20th did have an effect on temperature then it was by warming the […]

Scientist Paul Pukite has built a simple model involving Total Solar Irradiance , the Chandler wobble and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation which does an impressive job of emulating the Southern Oscillation index from Darwin and Tahiti. Here’s the result:  

Prolific solar-planetary scientist and long-time talkshop friend Nicola Scafetta has a new paper published in Physica A entitled ‘Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)’ which comments on Gil-Alana et al 2014; a paper purporting to dismiss any correlation between solar activity and […]

Over on the Hockey Schtick we have been alerted to a new paper which inadvertently offers a clue about the degree to which co2 levels are dependent on temperature, rather than the other way round, as the upside-down warmists claim. The last time this issue was discussed here at the talkshop, we made some real […]

This is the relatively reliably dated section of the now archived Quelccaya ice core. # Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru 1800 Year Oxygen Isotope, Dust, and Major Ions Data # Original_Source_URL: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/trop/quelccaya/quelccaya2013.txt # Contribution_Date # Date: 2013-04-04 # Study_Name: Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru 1800 Year Oxygen Isotope, Dust, and Major Ions Data # Investigators: Thompson, L.G.; […]

Delve into Hadcrut at the poles

Posted: August 21, 2011 by tchannon in climate

A previous post was about UAH lower troposphere and polar temperatures, so it is logical to look at Hadcrut3 in the same way.

Sea surface temperature is plunging rapidly, air temps are following the downward trend. Brace for another cold N.H. winter. Lets hope SST’s don’t follow the Chicago Carbon Exchange carbon/ton price down to the floor.

I graphed specific humidity since 1940 against sunspot number averaged over the solar cycle, and got this surprising result: Since sunspot numbers don’t correlate so well as this with temperature, it raises the question of what it is which controls specific humidity in the atmosphere. How might the solar flux be affecting humidity? Wikipedia says […]

What drives the weather can drive the climate. In this case the chances of non-correlation are said to be extremely low. – – – A new study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting that solar variability can […]

Of course the WMO doesn’t miss the chance to promote its ‘human-caused warming’ dogma, painting La Nina is a minor break in their imagined process. – – – The 2020-2021 La Nina phenomenon has passed its peak, the UN weather agency said Tuesday, but its impact on temperatures, rain and storm patterns is set to […]

Back in 2016, the UK MET Office’s median projection to the start of 2021 forecast a global temperature temperature anomaly of 1.4C above their 1850-1900 “Pre-Industrial” baseline. Their recently published five year model projection (rightmost blue blob on graph), shows a 2021 median anomaly 0.35C lower, at 1.05C. Their HADcruT 4GL temperature time series (data […]

But every squillionth of a degree counts for those trying to promote a human-caused climate crisis that never lives up to the hype of the computer models. In contrast with dire predictions, the change since the 1998 El Niño is nothing to write home about. – – – There has been no significant warming trend […]