Suggestions-11

Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 8)

Comments
  1. Steve C says:

    Danger, Will Robinson … check your WordPress plugins smartish. The Register is reporting an XSS vuln which could cause you much grief if some troublemaker wants.
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/07/wordpresss_xss_twenty_fifteen/

    And while I’m here, good luck Rog in today’s beauty contest. 😀

  2. Paul Vaughan says:

    Climate isn’t scaring people enough. Next up:
    Oxygen Terror

    “Livina et al. [10] outline future scenarios of atmospheric oxygen deficiency by statistically analyzing… Tipping point analysis… which would carry the system into a different dynamic regime. It does predict… a superlinear decreasing trend in oxygen availability, which may be further exacerbated by the adoption of certain technological advances in the coming decades.”
    http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/25/3/10.1063/1.4915260

    Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration
    http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/25/3/10.1063/1.4907185
    “We apply tipping point analysis… and perform projections under possible future scenarios, leading to oxygen deficiency in the atmosphere.”

    Remember:
    This is the same Livina who (along with co-author Lenton) interpretively overlooked the difference between swimming on ice and skating in (unfrozen) water. (how the f***???! no sensible person knows…)

    Lenton is also involved in the new “Chaos” propaganda edition that’s attracting rave reviews from clueless glitter lovers (e.g. visit ce) who have no ethical qualms about supporting a fantasy modeling culture deliberately designed to corrupt public perception of nature. (You don’t need a conspiracy when a few carrots and a group of naive, passionate carrot-chasers will suffice.)

  3. Paul Vaughan says:

    The most seriously misleading article in the special edition — camouflaged as a sensible, conservative article, but entirely based on false assumptions — is the naive one on PDFs & tail weights. In all the time I’ve been following the climate discussion, not once have I seen statistical inference based on sensible assumptions. Application of PDFs in climate science appears always based on false assumptions. The culture appears permanently & fatally corrupted; correction doesn’t appear feasible.

    Translation of “Chaos” special edition message:
    “If you don’t fund our chaotic aims lavishly, there won’t be any oxygen for your grandchildren.”

    (sarc) friendly approach (/sarc)

  4. Ian Wilson says:

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150429113204.htm

    Multifractals suggest the existence of an unknown physical mechanism on the Sun
    Date: April 29, 2015
    Source: The Henryk Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics Polish Academy of Sciences
    Summary:

    The famous sunspots on the surface of the Earth’s star result from the dynamics of strong magnetic fields, and their numbers are an important indicator of the state of activity on the Sun. Researchers have been conducting multifractal analysis into the changes in the numbers of sunspots. The resulting graphs were surprisingly asymmetrical in shape, suggesting that sunspots may be involved in hitherto unknown physical processes.

  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    I live in a multi-cultural city and communicate easily with tons of people with all types of possible backgrounds speaking ESL (English as a Second Language) at all different levels. It only takes a little extra-careful interpretive effort on the part of the receiver.

    Maybe because of participant idealism, cross-disciplinary communication on English-based climate blogs – in sharp contrast – meets a lot of coercively deliberate misinterpretation & misrepresentation.

    Ian has linked to an article that actually attempts to quantify some of the more interesting properties of nature that are completely overlooked by the oldschool, systematically-limited, conventional methods one sees artificially & misleadingly propped up (why??! this has always made me extremely suspicious…) on pedestals in climate blogging. These oldschool approaches are subsumed (as mere special cases) by more generalized methods.

    …so something fishy & coercive is going on with the propping up of the more narrow approaches that by definition cause massive blindspots. It’s like some powerful political forces with hefty influence over blog hosts are determined that only mostly-blind methods will be allowed on pedestals because insight from better vision might produce politically inconvenient observations. ….or maybe something else is going on? Don’t know….

    Here are some quotes from Ian’s link. See if you can recognize their mathematical equivalence to what I’ve been illustrating for years:

    1. “”In a sense, multifractals are fractals of fractals. They aren’t merely the sum of fractals and they cannot be divided to return to their original components, because the way they ‘weave‘ is fractal in nature. That specific weave causes each fragment of a multifractal to enlarge at a different rate,” explains Dr Pawel Oswiecimka (INP PAS), the co-author.”

    2. “There are, however, phenomena which reveal signs of right-handed asymmetry. Among them is the sequence of time intervals on a stock exchange when there is a change in share prices, which does not happen uniformly. On the contrary, there are long periods when the price in the absence of transactions remains constant, then suddenly in a short time a cluster of exchanges is registered. Right-handed asymmetry means then, that while the intervals between clusters are poorly correlated, basically random, the inter-transaction times within the clusters are specifically related.”

    Not only was it a breeze to isolate the multi-fractal structure. I went the step further to demonstrate that the evolution of it’s spatial structure is necessarily hinged to frequency shift. See the section on “Volatility Weave Rate Shifts” in this old article: Solar-Terrestrial Volatility Weaves

    An appeal to the community:
    There’s a brutally stubborn problem that’s proving difficult to correct:

    There’s this obstructing tendency for climate explorers to ignore the evolution of spatial configuration that’s synchronized with temporal pattern. It’s like they have a stubbornly child-like mindset that, “No!! Climate must only be treated as a temporal problem.” The problem of course is that this unhelpful abstract attitude is creepily divorced from spatiotemporal reality.

    From Ian’s link:

    “The results of multifractal analysis in changes to sunspots seem to support the hypothesis that the Sun may function with not one but two mechanisms responsible for the generation of magnetic fields.”

    Ever heard of toroidal & poloidal? Surely they’re aware that sunspots migrate spatially during the solar cycle? Hmm… there are a few loose ends left here…. (leaving them and walking away for now…)

    Ian, I left some notes that might expedite conceptual understanding over here:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-10/comment-page-1/#comment-100598

    Neptune is the more distal constraint on the more proximate inner system that needs to be recognized and acknowledged (see the comment just above in the suggestions-10 thread).

    JEV timing is not independent of the inclination of Neptune’s orbit. Together J & N set the limits on the whole system since they occupy the jovian boundary orbits.

    Please be careful to not misunderstand.
    This is not (!) about magnitude; that would clearly be J-S.

    This is about another key mathematical property of the system. This is about the asymptotics that define the differential limits of the system timing center manifold.

    Meridional migration rate is coupled to differential winding (this is a topological property). At the equator constraints are tied to conjunctions, whereas meridionally global constraints are defined axially and regional aberrations are tied to frequency anomalies (from JEV ~= axial J+N) which define the volatility weave rate shifts.

    Trees like ENSO make it hard (impossible for oldschool methods) to see the rings of smoke being signaled by the J+N timescale cyclic volatility of semi-annual earth-rotation variations and J-N timescale cyclic volatility of annual earth rotation variations.

    I still haven’t perfected the wording, but as it is currently (what I have time for) it should be no more difficult to understand than intermediate-level ESL. I’m glad you started thinking about multi-fractals. For some audience members, recognizing the mathematical equivalence might trigger the benefit of crystallized hindsight.

    Certainly oldschool methods that rely on an unconscious multi-fractal homogeneity assumption STRICTLY CANNOT see these patterns. Those methods are NOT sufficiently generalized. This may be the root of years of extremely serious misunderstanding and this is why I’ve become so acutely suspicious of people putting the systematically blindspotted methods on pedestals, as if they need the politically-convenient cover their systematic blindspottedness absolutely guarantees.

    Of course the more likely explanation remains that there are just some really bad people in the game.

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s important to keep in mind that the spatial evolution is coupled to the temporal evolution as a single indivisible whole. It’s actually misleading to say “spatial & temporal” – as though they’re independent & divisible – rather than “spatiotemporal”.

    Let me list 5 labels in a hierarchy to provoke more organized thinking about this:

    1. clustered volatility ——- see Ian’s multi-fractal link — that’s all they’ve noticed so far (apparently), but there’s more for them to see if they look with sufficient care:
    2. cyclic volatility
    3. physically aliased cyclic volatility
    4. cyclically physically-aliased cyclic volatility
    5. nonstationary cyclically physically-aliased cyclic volatility —- the root of regional variability, measured by SCD = volatility weave rate shift

    So far (apparently) they’ve noticed only the tip of the sun-climate volatility iceberg hierarchy listed here.

    Conveniently from a methodological perspective, annual & semi-annual terrestrial cycles alias the volatility (via simple orbital geometry (axial tilt)). Capitalizing on this opportunity is easy.

    In contrast, although clever work-arounds are feasible, trying to extract the signals directly from solar records (without the benefit of the tilted geometric mediator) is a whole lot more tricky.

    The problem in that trickier case:
    To what should one tune the rake’s (extent’s) tines (grain)?
    (Of course one could resort to measuring a more generalized form of variance, but there are costs.)

    A lot of the solar records are measured from earth, so with those records there’s actually no problem and extraction of the regional aberration manifold becomes dead-simple once the explorer understands how to opportunistically leverage hierarchy 1-5 listed above using sufficiently generalized methods …meaning:

    A. sufficient measurement resolution (in this case daily is needed)
    B. adjustable kernel span (in this case something very wide to damp unwanted measurement-method-related phase-estimate noise and something closer to the extent for measuring amplitude)
    C. scale-resolved extent (rake width) (in this case J+N & J-N, which solidly pass empirical diagnostics)
    D. tunable grain (rake tine spacing) (in this case annual & semi-annual)

  7. Paul Vaughan says:

    For awhile I’ve been hesitant to clarify what I increasingly suspect, but the time now looks ripe:

    The climate change campaign increasingly appears to be American military & financial aggression against Russia & China.

    I would advise other NATO countries to sternly confront the United States, as this is transparently the strategy of an obsessed gambler going through harsh denial of odds that are increasingly stacked overwhelmingly unfavorably. The suggestion I would make: Russia & China should be regarded as intelligent (extremely intelligent in the case of China) friends & allies worthy of the highest level of respect.

    There’s only one thing that will convince me that my suspicions are wrong. (Campaigners: See above for a lesson on admitting 1+1=2.)

    Keep in mind:
    We need to have some fun…

  8. Ron Clutz says:

    Why are climatologists so focused on land surface temperatures when oceans so clearly make the temperature changes?
    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/10/empirical-evidence-oceans-make-climate/

  9. tallbloke says:

    Ron C: Thanks, reblogged.

  10. Paul Vaughan says: May 9, 2015 at 11:17 pm

    “It’s important to keep in mind that the spatial evolution is coupled to the temporal evolution as a single indivisible whole. It’s actually misleading to say “spatial & temporal” – as though they’re independent & divisible – rather than “spatiotemporal”.”

    I prefer “temporal/spatial modulation”! The wiggles are inherent in temporal/spatial. The static is extremely difficult to measure.
    ———————————————————————————————————————————–
    Let me list 5 labels in a hierarchy to provoke more organized thinking about this:
    1. clustered volatility ——- see Ian’s multi-fractal link — that’s all they’ve noticed so far (apparently), but there’s more for them to see if they look with sufficient care:
    2. cyclic volatility
    3. physically aliased cyclic volatility
    4. cyclically physically-aliased cyclic volatility
    5. nonstationary cyclically physically-aliased cyclic volatility —- the root of regional variability, measured by SCD = volatility weave rate shift
    So far (apparently) they’ve noticed only the tip of the sun-climate volatility iceberg hierarchy listed here.

    Conveniently from a methodological perspective, annual & semi-annual terrestrial cycles alias the volatility (via simple orbital geometry (axial tilt)). Capitalizing on this opportunity is easy
    So far (apparently) they’ve noticed only the tip of the sun-climate volatility iceberg hierarchy listed here.

    Conveniently from a methodological perspective, annual & semi-annual terrestrial cycles alias the volatility (via simple orbital geometry (axial tilt)). Capitalizing on this opportunity is easy.

    In contrast, although clever work-arounds are feasible, trying to extract the signals directly from solar records (without the benefit of the tilted geometric mediator) is a whole lot more tricky.

    The problem in that trickier case:
    To what should one tune the rake’s (extent’s) tines (grain)?
    (Of course one could resort to measuring a more generalized form of variance, but there are costs.)
    ———————————————————————————————————————————-
    Try to tune the rake extent and grain on your clever cat’s instrument to “get rid of chiggers” and watch your “face get eaten off” by same cat. 🙂

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    Will, I think people forget that solar signals get spatiotemporally aliased not only annually & semi-annually (due to the effect of (a) axial tilt & (b) north-south land-ocean asymmetry on circulatory topology), but also by ENSO:

    Shifts in the beat of ALL internal oscillations with the solar cycle are governed by SCD (solar cycle deceleration).

    Important:
    This is not conjecture. Rather, this is by mathematical definition. Here we’re in the realm of simple geometric proofs.

    This is where I am sure people have been extremely lazy in failing to recognize simplicity.

    Perhaps people have been so brainwashed to expect something immensely complicated that they are firmly closed to the notion that there are previously unnoticed trivialities with profoundly simplifying implications.

    Waiting to observe independent epiphanies is eerie to say the least. Meanwhile sensible discussion of multidecadal oscillations is paralyzed in suspense. Observing the enduring lack of registration cultivates ominous humility regarding concerning obstacles to human cognition.

  12. Paul Vaughan says: .May 11, 2015 at 2:30 pm ”

    “Will, I think people forget that solar signals get spatiotemporally aliased not only annually & semi-annually (due to the effect of (a) axial tilt & (b) north-south land-ocean asymmetry on circulatory topology), but also by ENSO:”

    Paul,
    I can commiserate that this mightily difficult to comprehend between the linear and the cyclic!

    Suggestion: Consider “neither the linear nor the cyclic can ever repeat”. Such is built into this “is”.
    Now go back to your workstation and ponder. Just what are the Roaches doing to this?🙂
    For consideration, “Do the digits of PI ever repeat”?, and the conjugate question, ” Is there ever one frequency”? -will-

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    Will,

    Careful.
    You’re mixing geometries.

    It’s the trees you describe.
    The rings of smoke are as simple as 1+1=2.

    (…I have seen rings of smoke through the trees — Led Zeppelin)

    The spatiotemporal insolation pattern gets scrambled by your nonrepeating digits of pi (ENSO “trees”, which are unique eddies), BUT the “rings of smoke” are topologically perfect repeats.

    Waiting for others to see the rings of smoke (1+1=2) may create unwelcome eerie suspense, but soberly stepping back for broader perspective that peripheral nuisance serves to remind:

    1. Deliberately conflating the known with the unknown is a devil’s errand.
    2. Blind corrupt judges pushing anomaly-think (to cleverly mix the geometries) need to be dismissed.

  14. tchannon says:

    Black spider and the Guardian.

    27 letters where I hazard a guess HRH has written about enviro stuff. Will the Guardian reveal all? Are there more? What will be redacted?

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/05/12/uk-britain-charles-letters-idUKKBN0NX23820150512

  15. Andrew says:

    Impact of major stratospheric warming & QBO on the variability of stratospheric water vapour
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064443/abstract

    Attribution of the recent winter sea ice decline over the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0042.1

  16. oldbrew says:

    ‘Scientists show ‘breaking waves’ perturb Earth’s magnetic field’

    ‘The underlying physical process that creates striking ‘breaking wave’ cloud patterns in our atmosphere also frequently opens the gates to high-energy solar wind plasma that perturbs Earth’s magnetic field, or magnetosphere, which protects us from cosmic radiation.’

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150511125316.htm

    ‘The discovery was made by two University of New Hampshire space physicists, who published their findings in the online journal Nature Communications Monday, May 11, 2015.’


    [image credit: Benjamin Foster / Science Daily]

  17. Paul Vaughan says: May 12, 2015 at 1:32 pm

    “Will, Careful. You’re mixing geometries.”

    Sorry I am trying to compare complex conjugates, and what may be understood from that!

    “It’s the trees you describe.”

    Yes in the spatial/temporal!
    “The rings of smoke are as simple as 1+1=2.
    (“…I have seen rings of smoke through the trees“ — Led Zeppelin)”

    “The spatiotemporal insolation pattern gets scrambled by your nonrepeating digits of pi (ENSO “trees”, which are unique eddies), BUT the “rings of smoke” are topologically perfect repeats.”

    I observe both the linear and the cyclic!! I also observe that the two are not only irrational, but also incommensurate which to “some”, may be the same thing!! Yes a circle is topologically repeatable even in 3D, if the compass never changes! If “diameter” is the unit identity (1) and time as expressed in diameter per unit “interval” (velocity). How many time intervals per cycle (exactly)? There can be time and approximate frequency, or there can be frequency and approximate time, never both, with any constant topography. The idea of rational orbital diameters, “and” rational orbital intervals, is in itself irrational.

    “1. Deliberately conflating the known with the unknown is a devil’s errand.
    2. Blind corrupt judges pushing anomaly-think (to cleverly mix the geometries) need to be dismissed.”

    I agree, but about this planet the “unknown” must persist! Try that for true knowledge! Than fall on your face! 🙂

  18. This for the entertainment of Talkshop Folk

    —————————————————————————————————————————————-
    The conviction came following a 2-day trial, during which the prosecution showed the jury a video filmed by a grandmother during a July visit to Cortez Beach in Bradenton. The video, according to The Associated Press, shows Alvarez moving on top of Caballero in a sexual manner.

    The incident, the prosecutor said, was witnessed by several people, including the mother of a 4-year-old girl who told police her daughter “witnessed the couple having sex.”

    The defense failed in their attempts to convince the jury Alvarez had been dancing on Caballero, something Assistant State Attorney Anthony Dafonseca mocked in his closing argument.

    “She wasn’t dancing,” Dafonseca said. “It’s insulting your intelligence to say that she was dancing.”

    Dafonseca plans to ask for an unspecified jail term for Alvarez, the newspaper reported.

    The prosecuting attorney told The Miami Herald the couple declined an earlier opportunity to enter into a plea deal, which have likely resulted in much lighter sentences.

    “We gave them a reasonable offer, what we felt was reasonable, and they decided it wasn’t something they wanted to accept responsibility for,” Dafonseca told The Miami Herald. “Despite the video, despite all the witnesses.”

    A sentencing date has not yet been set.
    ————————————————————————————————————————————

    Only in Florida USA. 3/4 of the rest of the world would giggle and point “woja look at dat”!! The 4 year old now thinking “wow may be fun times later” !!

  19. linneamogren says:

    Great video! The song is about the beginning of the universe, along with life and regardless of all the damage humans can cause a planet in the end nature and the cosmos will take us out of the picture eventually leaving the waves crashing alone against the shores.

  20. oldbrew says: May 13, 2015 at 11:11 am

    ‘Scientists show ‘breaking waves’ perturb Earth’s magnetic field’

    ‘The underlying physical process that creates striking ‘breaking wave’ cloud patterns in our atmosphere also frequently opens the gates to high-energy solar wind plasma that perturbs Earth’s magnetic field, or magnetosphere, which protects us from cosmic radiation.’

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150511125316.htm

    ‘The discovery was made by two University of New Hampshire space physicists, who published their findings in the online journal Nature Communications Monday, May 11, 2015.’

    OK! Is this contest for “who misunderstands the most” or for “who understands the least” ? Perhaps there should be identical teething rings for both winners!

  21. Ron Clutz says:

    If Aristotle knew what we know today about how oceans make the climate, how might he convey that meaning to one of his young Greek students?

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/13/an-alternate-climate-encyclical/

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    @ Will Janoschka (May 13, 2015 at 1:44 pm)

    Basically you’re suggesting “To h*ll with observations”.

    Intractable philosophical differences have thus been clarified.

  23. Paul Vaughan says: May 13, 2015 at 6:36 pm
    @ Will Janoschka (May 13, 2015 at 1:44 pm)

    (“Sorry I am trying to compare complex conjugates, and what may be understood from that!”)

    “Basically you’re suggesting “To h*ll with observations”.
    ‘Intractable philosophical differences have thus been clarified.”

    Never, your “observations” are not anything observable by any, but only weird conjectures. never observable. 🙂

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sunspots & earth rotation are observed. Nothing I’ve presented is conjecture. You have to violate geometric axioms, the law of large numbers, and/or the law of conservation of angular momentum to dispute the observations.

    We have reached an intractable difference.

    This exchange has been informative.

  25. Paul Vaughan says: May 13, 2015 at 7:33 pm

    “Sunspots & earth rotation are observed. Nothing I’ve presented is conjecture. You have to violate geometric axioms, the law of large numbers, and/or the law of conservation of angular momentum to dispute the observations. We have reached an intractable difference.”

    “This exchange has been informative.”
    I agree Paul, and thank you for your effort! Now what?

  26. TB. This exchange with Paul “is” the scientific method. Excuse me sir, you are full of shit!
    We need much more of that! Someday some may understand.

  27. Paul Vaughan says:

    Good pick Linnea.
    There’s a telling verse on unnatural climate modelers:

    “Computerized clinic
    For superior cynics
    Who dance to a synthetic band

    In their own image
    Their world is fashioned
    No wonder they don’t understand”

    “The most endangered species
    The honest man”

    — Rush – “Natural Science”

    – – — – – — – – — – –

    My pick for the day:

    — Martin Garrix – “Animals” –

    [begin orbital interpretation]

    A Tall bloke introduces the spellbinding hypnosis of The Clock (0:33+).
    The ensuing corruption of young minds leads to The Destruction of CO2 Theory (2:22+).

    [/end orbital interpretation]

  28. oldbrew says:

    From The New Yorker:
    ‘Scientists have discovered a powerful new strain of fact-resistant humans who are threatening the ability of Earth to sustain life, a sobering new study reports.

    The research, conducted by the University of Minnesota, identifies a virulent strain of humans who are virtually immune to any form of verifiable knowledge, leaving scientists at a loss as to how to combat them.’

    http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/scientists-earth-endangered-by-new-strain-of-fact-resistant-humans

  29. oldbrew says:

    Paper, 11th May 2015: ‘Long-term variation in the Sun’s activity caused by magnetic
    Rossby waves in the tachocline’

    Abstract:
    Long-term records of sunspot number and concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides
    (10Be and 14C) on the Earth reveal the variation of the Sun’s magnetic
    activity over hundreds and thousands of years. We identify several clear
    periods in sunspot, 10Be, and 14C data as 1000, 500, 350, 200 and 100 years. We
    found that the periods of the first five spherical harmonics of the slow magnetic
    Rossby mode in the presence of a steady toroidal magnetic field of 1200-1300 G
    in the lower tachocline are in perfect agreement with the time scales of observed
    variations. The steady toroidal magnetic field can be generated in the lower
    tachocline either due to the steady dynamo magnetic field for low magnetic diffusivity
    or due to the action of the latitudinal differential rotation on the weak
    poloidal primordial magnetic field, which penetrates from the radiative interior.
    The slow magnetic Rossby waves lead to variations of the steady toroidal magnetic
    field in the lower tachocline, which modulate the dynamo magnetic field
    and consequently the solar cycle strength. This result constitutes a key point
    for long-term prediction of the cycle strength. According to our model, the next deep minimum
    in solar activity is expected during the first half of this century
    . [bold added]

    Full paper: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.02652.pdf

    Related: ‘Can Rossby waves explain the cyclic magnetic activity of the Sun and solar-type stars?’ [2013 paper]

    ‘The energy of the Rossby waves is the source of magnetic activity. Therefore, these waves gradually decrease. The beginning of a new cycle can be delayed until the formation of the new Rossby waves. This explains the changes in the durations of the cycles.’ [bold added]
    http://arxiv.org/pdf/1306.3490v1.pdf

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    interpretive paradigm shift proposed in introduction:

    Jan Veizer & Andreas Prokoph 2015
    Temperatures and oxygen isotopic composition of Phanerozoic oceans
    http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274782764_Temperatures_and_oxygen_isotopic_composition_of_Phanerozoic_oceans

    open access (download pdf)

  31. Paul Vaughan says:

    reminder (…in connection with May 16, 2015 at 7:33 pm link immediately above)

    galactic imprint on terrestrial climate

    well-written blog overview by Nir Shaviv:
    http://www.sciencebits.com/sights-field-trip-milky-way

    publication:
    Is the Solar System’s Galactic Motion Imprinted in the Phanerozoic Climate?
    html: http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140821/srep06150/full/srep06150.html
    pdf: http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140821/srep06150/pdf/srep06150.pdf

    supplementary info:
    http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140821/srep06150/extref/srep06150-s1.pdf

    data:
    http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140821/srep06150/extref/srep06150-s2.xls

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    Paradigm-shift underway:

    Can Earth’s rotation and tidal despinning drive plate tectonics?
    http://151.100.51.154/dst1/sciterra/sezioni/doglioni/Publ_download/2009RiguzzietalTectonophysics.pdf

    Global pattern of earthquakes and seismic energy distributions: insights for the mechanisms of plate tectonics
    http://www.dst.uniroma1.it/dst1/sciterra/sezioni/doglioni/Publ_download/2012VargaEtAl_WorldSeismicity.pdf

    Space geodesy validation of the global lithospheric flow
    http://151.100.51.154/dst1/sciterra/sezioni/doglioni/Publ_download/2007CrespietalGJI.pdf

    The westward drift of the lithosphere: A rotational drag?
    http://tetide.geo.uniroma1.it/sciterra/sezioni/doglioni/Publ_download/RotationScoppolaEtAlGSABull.pdf

    The relationship between the global seismicity and the rotation of the Earth
    http://syrte.obspm.fr/journees2004/pdf/Varga.pdf

  33. Roger Clague says:

    BBC does an experiment to prove CO2 causes warming
    It is good that BBC designed and filmed an experiment but they got it wrong.
    I think the experiment, only 2 minutes, and my comments will be of interest to Talkshop readers and propose it as head post.
    Dear Sirs,
    BBC4 10 May 2015. The Sky at Night about Venus
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05vlhgz/the-sky-at-night-venus-earths-twin
    I wish to complain that the programme was inaccurate, in particular the part from 6 min 30 sec. to 8 min 18 sec.
    The presenter says:
    That rise in temperature happened really very quickly and that shows how good CO2 is as a greenhouse gas.
    There was no significant rise in temperature.
    A rise in temperature over 30 minutes is not quick
    The experiment does not show CO2 acting as a greenhouse gas.

    I have screen shots but don’t know how to insert here.

    Experiment design
    The design is chosen for how it looks on TV. The camera moves from one set to the next.
    A scientist would use one set with air then repeats with the CO2. Thus keeping energy received from th lamp constant.
    Using two sets the angles of the flasks and the lamps vary. The distance flask-lamp varies. The distance was not measured. The height from the bench varies, the flask stoppers are different. Even the lamp output may be different.

    Results
    The 15 minute readings have been missed out and put at 20 min.
    We don’t know if the other points are correct as the data is not shown.
    The graph should show degree Kelvin K not centigrade C.
    The graph should start at 0K.
    If the temperature depended on absorption of radiation the change would be instant.
    The temperature of the whole apparatus depends on conduction and convection.
    Accuracy and error
    The increase of 1K is 1/300 = 0.3%. This is inside the margin of error of the experiment.
    I found 1 cm change in distance flask-lamp changed the temperature increase by 0.5K.

  34. tallbloke says:

    Roger C: Also, if the flasks are tightly stoppered, then the heat will cause the pressure to rise, which raises the temperature.

  35. “Also, if the flasks are tightly stoppered, then the heat will cause the pressure to rise, which raises the temperature.”

    Roger,
    With a fixed volume, it is an equation not ever a causation!🙂

  36. oldbrew says:

    Roger Clague: ‘I have screen shots but don’t know how to insert here’

    Upload them to the internet then insert the url of the relevant image into your comment – tips here:
    http://www.wikihow.com/Upload-Images-to-the-Internet

    tinypic may be the simplest for basic needs: http://tinypic.com/

  37. Roger Clague says:

    The experiment is not well designed. Only one set of apparatus should be used.

    http://s1382.photobucket.com/user/Roger_Clague/media/BBC%20CO2%20experiment%2010%2005%2015/set%20up_zpsccnmstvj.png.html?sort=3&o=2

    The 15 min points are missing and have been put at 20 min.

    http://s1382.photobucket.com/user/Roger_Clague/media/BBC%20CO2%20experiment%2010%2005%2015/graph_zpsyiya65fz.png.html?sort=3&o=0

    The 1K increase is 0.3%. This is within the range of expected error of up to 1%, so is not significant.
    The experiment does not show CO2 causes warming.
    The 30 minutes needed for equilibrium show the temperature changes are caused by conduction and convection not absorption of radiation. Absorbing radiation is done very quickly.

  38. oldbrew says:

    El Nino commentary from Bob Tisdale.

    ‘The Recent Westerly Wind Burst in the Western Equatorial Pacific Could Help to Strengthen the 2015/16 El Niño’
    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/05/18/the-recent-westerly-wind-burst-in-the-western-equatorial-pacific-could-help-to-strengthen-the-201516-el-nino/

  39. Andrew says:

    Stratospheric influence on Tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks & surface weather

    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2424.html

  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    from Andrew’s (May 19, 2015 at 11:33 am) link:
    “suggesting a single unifying mechanism across timescales”

    awakening

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    I suggest we need to shine some light on this CE comment:

    philsalmon | May 22, 2015 at 4:27 am |
    http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/21/the-method-of-multiple-working-hypotheses/#comment-705456

    This comment succinctly introduces an important issue at an accessible level while at the same time exposing a dirty lukewarmist trick.

    The dirty lukewarmist trick is to misrepresent internal climate chaos as having falsely assumed aggregate properties that are directly contradicted by climate observations.

    It’s downright creepy. They insist that geometric axioms & laws (of large numbers & conservation of angular momentum) be disregarded to facilitate their campaign. On the surface it looks like a calculated gamble that the populace will remain ignorant. This exposes the campaign as democratic.

    The lukewarmist strategy is to artificially engineer an axis with 2 false poles and 1 desired midpoint.

    There will be a cost. Eastern leaders know the midpoint is unphysical & democratic. It’s a tactical sociopolitical construct. Since the midpoint of the manipulatively engineered axis of climate deception lies completely outside of the set of physically permissible interpretations of observed aggregate properties of climate, there will be negotiating costs, even if face-saving with the western populace is afforded to western leaders by their gracious eastern counterparts.

    The chaos bludgeon isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed.

  42. Andrew says:

    Simulated lagged response of the NAO to the solar cycle over the person 1960-2009

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/new-paper-finds-another-solar.html

  43. Paul Vaughan says:

    further community alert to the deceitful trickery noted above:

    philsalmon links to this paper:

    Maslin & Ridgwell (2004). Mid-Pleistocene Revolution and the ‘eccentricity myth’.
    http://andy.seao2.info/pubs/manuscript_maslin_and_ridgwell.pdf

    NOTABLY ABSENT IS ANY REFERENCE TO JOSE RIAL’S WORK (….like wtf???!..).
    Lukewarmists cannot bear to face the errors Rial crystallized in Muller & MacDonald’s spectral analyses nearly 2 decades ago. Rial has gone orders of magnitude above & beyond where Muller & MacDonald’s explorations stopped. It’s shameful to see what lukewarmists are trying to do to the orbital forcing narrative. Of interest to Talkshop readers will be hypotheses (b) & (d) in the “Potential causes of the MPR” section (beginning on p.9).

    Lukewarmist propaganda on orbital & solar forcing is reliably based on deliberately misleading aggregation criteria.

  44. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here we go again with the same recycled deception — it’s becoming a routine calling this out:

    http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/22/week-in-review-science-edition-6/
    “Nature: Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability [link]”

    The host of CE shouldn’t be among those repeatedly falling for Dai’s recycling —- count how many times he writes this in the abstract alone:

    “since 1920” [count: 1]
    “since 1920” [count: 2]
    “since 1920” [count: 3]

    AGAIN: He’s chopping off EOF1&PC1 at 1920 FOR A DECEITFUL REASON.
    It’s trivial deception, easily verified. What’s comical (and informative) is that there aren’t more people calling him out for it. If such elementary deception doesn’t even get called out….

    While linking to his latest attempt, the host of CE should at least be calling Dai out. Integrity demands this much. By now he no doubt figures his aggregation trick is going undetected (…by what he probably assumes to be a functionally innumerate audience ……not saying I disagree with him there!! )

  45. Paul Vaughan says:

    Dai’s doing ok with IPO pattern recognition (see image below), but not with centennial & multidecadal:

    I put forward a challenge in the ERSST EOF 1234 article. Dai could benefit from very carefully pursuing that exercise (top of p.4: “Trivial linear recombination of EOFs 1, 3, & 4”). That would clean up his multidecadal shortcomings (his AMO is a novice placeholder for SCD) …while exposing his more egregious centennial (“since 1920”) mischief.

    An image that should have been included in that document is here (typo alert: should be PC2&PC3 (not 1&2)). Sensible interpretation of that image is an exercise best left to agencies like NASA JPL. Climate scientists aren’t qualified. If there are to be funding cuts: Cut the climate scientists and fund NASA JPL (…and remove their muzzles..)

  46. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Key Points:
    • The Sun and ENSO explain most of the decadal sea level changes
    • Solar forcing is about 8 times the changes in the irradiance”

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2014JA020732/asset/image_n/jgra51778-fig-0002.png?v=1&s=3d2e932cfdbefe32b4907a5e20dfb563f495e025

    “The fit explains 71% of the observed variance”

    Howard, D.; Shaviv, N.J.; & Svensmark H. (2015). The solar and Southern Oscillation components
    in the satellite altimetry data. Journal of Geophysical Research Space Physics 120.
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JA020732/full
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JA020732/pdf

    “13 May 2015”
    “This is an open access article”

    Stat 101 Level Tip:
    Don’t calibrate without running diagnostics on residuals!!!

    I spot one major flaw in the article:
    “Over the solar cycle, the peak to peak ocean surface temperature changes by about 0.08°C”

    As I have counseled time & again, that claim FAILS ELEMENTARY (Stat 101 level) DIAGNOSTICS, meaning you have to make false assumptions to come up with such harshly egregious misinterpretations — e.g. they admit:

    “One therefore requires the average temperature of the oceans and the assumption that the oceans heat uniformly.”

    Let’s repeat that last part in stark disbelief:

    the assumption that the oceans heat uniformly

    wtf???!!
    I expect better from these authors….
    very disappointing

    on the upside:
    room for improvement….
    keeps the news cycle going…..

  47. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sentence:
    The false assumption of uniformity is due for immediate execution.

  48. Ron Clutz says:

    On the N. Pacific Blob

    From a post by Nicholas Bond:

    “In a study published earlier this month, my colleagues and I fingered the stubborn high-pressure ridge mentioned above, and in particular the weak winds associated with it. The result was a lower-than-normal rate in how quickly heat is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, and slower movement of cooler water into the formation region of the blob.”
    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/23/the-big-bad-blob/

  49. linneamogren says:

    Scientist Confesses: “Global Warming a $22 Billion Scam

    http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/Global-Warming-climate-change/2014/11/17/id/607827/

    [reply] one scam leading to another of the ‘send money’ variety?

  50. oldbrew says:

    Baffled scientist news: ‘Physicist finds mysterious anti-electron clouds inside thunderstorm’

    ‘”We really don’t understand how lightning gets started very well because we don’t understand the electrical environment of thunderstorms. This positron phenomenon could be telling us something new about how thunderstorms charge up and make lightning, but our finding definitely complicates things because it doesn’t fit into the picture that was developing.”
    http://phys.org/print350714260.html

  51. Ian Wilson says:

    Here is a quote:

    Rights-based judicial policymaking . . . [leads to] issues that should be subject to . . . ongoing . . . discussion [are being] presented as beyond legitimate debate, with the [winners] claiming the right to permanent victory. As the moralism of [judicial] rights displaces the morality of [democratic parliamentary] consent, the politics of coercion replaces the politics of persuasion. The result is to embitter politics and decrease the inclination of political opponents to treat each other as fellow citizens . . .

  52. Ian Wilson says:

    And a concluding remark:

    Robert Dahl, the pre-eminent modern theorist of democracy, once said: “The democratic process is a gamble on the possibilities that a people, in acting autonomously, will learn how to act rightly.”[74] To adopt full judicial review of constitutional rights would amount to a verdict that the British people have failed. It would indicate a lack of confidence in their ability to maintain a tolerant and fair society without the supervision of judicial chaperons, overseeing their decisions and correcting their mistakes. It would impose on the British people a kind of political guardianship. I do not believe that Britain’s enviable reputation as a world leader in the development of democracy and liberty warrants such pessimism. Indeed, I believe the opposite.

  53. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Ian, very good article. Did you get my recent email?

  54. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, New Zealand are getting a lot of snow at the moment, see
    http://iceagenow.info/2015/05/biggest-storm-on-earth-hammering-new-zealand/
    and
    http://iceagenow.info/2015/05/new-zealand-biggest-snow-dump-in-three-decades/

    But have a look at NuSchool centred on the Antarctic, it is surrounded by weather systems drawing heat out of the oceans up to a 1000 miles from it’s coast.
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=48.65,-95.02,329

  55. oldbrew says:

    This all looks a bit half-baked unfortunately…
    ‘Analysis: Coinciding Maxima Of Three Natural Cycles Ends…Cooling Ahead As They Turn Negative! –

    See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2015/05/25/analysis-coinciding-maxima-of-three-natural-cycles-ends-cooling-ahead-as-they-turn-negative/

  56. Ron Clutz says:

    The linkage between sea ice and climate change is not simple. Here’s a look at the mechanisms involved.
    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/26/climate-on-ice-ocean-ice-dynamics/

  57. Michele says:

    On the Verge of a Grand Solar Minimum: A Second Maunder Minimum ?

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11207-015-0684-1

    “….We conclude that the level of solar activity is likely to be reduced significantly during the next 90 years, somewhat resembling the Maunder Minimum period…..”

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldbrew (May 25, 2015 at 10:36 pm) wrote:
    “This all looks a bit half-baked unfortunately…
    ‘Analysis: Coinciding Maxima Of Three Natural Cycles Ends…Cooling Ahead As They Turn Negative! – “

    Yes, it’s informative that that gets featured as an article and more serious commentary on multidecadal climate gets blocked on that site. It’s not clear what the host is thinking, but it’s clear that there’s a crucial comprehension gap impairing choices & judgement. Disappointing ….

  59. Ron Clutz says:

    This just in: The RAPID measurements prove oceans make climate, and it looks like cooling in the future.
    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/27/evidence-is-mounting-oceans-make-climate/

  60. Can anyone explain the earthlings “need to know” when clearly they do not?
    Is it money only that demands of Atmospheric scientists, to promote fantasy, rather than “don’t know”, or is it simply the academic arrogance of “I hab a PhD”?

  61. oldbrew says:

    Presentation: Solar activity correlation with NAO and ENSO.
    http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf

    comments [see link p.26]
    • The correlation between solar activity and NAO
    changes in consecutive 100-year solar cycles
    • Solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity have
    opposite effects on NAO
    • The changing correlation between solar activity and
    NAO may be due to changing relative influence of
    different solar drivers.

  62. oldbrew says:

    From The Register: ‘The ‘echo chamber’ effect misleading people on climate change’

    ‘Dubious bloggers like DeSmogBlog refuse to accept consensus’
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/28/climate_change_echo_chambers/

  63. Andrew says:

    German temperatures correlated with the solar cycle

  64. Michele says:

    Ring of the fire and communication with planets.

    (No Sunspots + Input planetary alignament = destabilization volcanic and major earthquakes on ring of the fire)

  65. oldbrew says:

    Michele: ‘Mercury at inferior solar conjunction’

    http://in-the-sky.org/news.php?id=20150530_12_100

  66. craigm350 says:

    Hopefully Paul Homewood will look further into this.

    97% advocacy –

    …research by scientists at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, has shown how increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have caused climate change, have triggered a return of crucial seasonal rains to the Sahel region.

    The researchers used a supercomputer climate simulator to study different influences on North African rainfall.

    And when they examined the increases in rainfall since the 1980s, they found around three-quarters of the additional rain was caused by rising greenhouse.
    […]
    ‘Our new study shows that our activities are not just causing problems for future generations. They are causing major changes now.

    ‘Continuing on the current path of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more serious and widespread impacts.

    ‘I trust the governments meeting later this year in Paris will appreciate the gravity of this message.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3105940/Climate-change-bringing-rain-Africa-30-years-Live-Aid-tried-help-end-famine.html

    From the DM article – spot the AMO? Ask why there was more rainfall prior to the ~1960’s…or rather don’t.

  67. scute1133 says:

    Tim

    It was really cold in London today, June 1st. I was wondering if it was a record for coldest June day?

  68. tchannon says:

    UK extremes
    Parameter Location Value
    Highest maximum temperature Holbeach 16.8 °C
    Lowest maximum temperature Killylane 8.9 °C
    Lowest minimum temperature Aboyne -0.4 °C
    Highest rainfall Capel Curig 54.6 mm
    Sunniest Kirkwall 10.7 hours

    Issued at: 0002 on Tue 02 Jun 2015

    Been a day of erratic winds, a few brief gales, all over the place weather.

    Way way back there were snowdrifts near here during June.

  69. Andrew says:

    Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing & sea surface warming

    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2449.html

  70. linneamogren says:

    Bill Nye “the science guy” claims the Texas floods are due to AGW / Climate Change. He claims it’s the same as smokers getting cancer. Hmmm, ok. Listen to him closely in this short video. Bill Nye states ” its very reasonable that the floods in Texas are a result of human activity ” Reasonable? I don’t think I would rely on ” reasonable assumptions ” to determine a hypothesis is settled science.

    http://boingboing.net/2015/06/01/bill-nye-on-texas-floods-and-c.html

    [reply] is his middle initial D by any chance😉

  71. tallbloke says:

    Linnea: Nye is just a paid mouthpiece for ‘settled science’.

  72. linneamogren says:

    Check out Figure 7 ( OLR DATA ) which clearly shows El Nino is effecting the overall precipitation in Texas, not the purported effects of rising temperatures on blocking-type patterns.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2997

  73. linneamogren says:

    Hi Roger !!

    I agree! But the media has used his vile to spew the AGW con on these awful floods. Looking at the data it’s more obvious to me El Nino is effecting the precipitation pattern in Texas as well as the southwest

  74. tallbloke says:

    Of course. That’s what El Nino has always done. That’s why first nations didn’t camp in narrow valleys.

  75. linneamogren says:

    @Roger

    ” That’s why first nations didn’t camp in narrow valleys ” Good point! Excellent evidence this pattern is a pattern and nothing more.

  76. linneamogren says:

    “Texas leads the nation most every year in flood-related deaths & damage ”

    http://floodsafety.com/texas/

    Click the “Flash Flood Alley” it explains why Texas floods so badly without any AGW hocus pocus

  77. Andrew says:

  78. oldbrew says:

    The fact that the warmism campaign is heavily dependent on actors, media personalities, politicians and suchlike paid flagwavers should be a red flag regarding any alleged science content.

    Advertising rule of thumb: if a product needs heavily and expensively promoting, year after year, there’s bound to be something wrong with it.

    Attention Bill Nye & co: http://realclimatescience.com/2015/06/texas-is-vulnerable-to-clueless-academics/

  79. craigm350 says:

    Bill Nye is to science what Sepp Blatter was to transparency. Paul Homewood eviscerated Nye’s wailing nonsense days ago –
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/05/30/the-age-of-disinformation/
    To paraphrase my old Marxist lecturer – “come the revolution Bill you’re the first against the wall’*
    I haven’t seen such commitment to the party line since Lord Haw-Haw.
    * of course this is in jest, just in case a sociopathic narcissist starts wailing about death threats blah blah woe is them – ironic considering how they campaign for the genocide of ‘undeserving’ Africans who can only get life saving reliable energy ‘in special circumstances’ that the #GreenImperialists decide. How compassionate. How benevolent.
    Yes Master Nye, three bags full Master Nye.😉

    [reply] Nye vs Blatter – LOL🙂

  80. Michele says:

    Proton density and solar wind are turbulent, why ?


  81. Andrew says:

    Increased rainfall in tropcs caused by more frequent storms.

    http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/goddard/march/increased-rainfall-in-tropics-caused-by-more-frequent-big-storms-0/

    ” We thought It was because the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and, therefore, when storms occur they rain more. … Instead, the warmer tropical atmosphere becomes better organised to produce large storms more frequently”

  82. oldbrew says:

    ‘The Solar Cycle Turned Sideways’

    ‘In the graphic, sunspot counts are plotted horizontally
    instead of vertically. Large sunspot numbers are on the
    right, small sunspot numbers are on the left. This rotated
    framework erases the concept of Solar Min and Solar
    Max, and replaces it with a terrestrial analog: La Niña and
    El Niño’
    http://www.vsp.ucar.edu/Heliophysics/pdf/Lika_sideways_SC.pdf

    NB it’s only 1.5 pages – easy to read

  83. Ron Clutz says:

    This may be of interest.

    The warming at Spitsbergen is one of the most outstanding climatic events since the volcanic eruption of Krakatoa, in 1883. The dramatic warming at Spitsbergen may hold key aspects for understanding how climate ticks.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/06/08/spitsbergen-triangle-ground-zero-for-climate-mysteries/

  84. Great Britain Scotland Food & Drink
    “Why you should never drink whisky on the rocks
    The Thirsty Explorer heads to the Scottish island of Islay where he learns the important differences between malt and whisky – and how to order it in a bar.”

    This is again, complete BS from warmest! Good single malt Scotch must be imbibed as cold to enjoy the very Oder or presence as such displays upon slightly higher temperature, Much better than meeting a young lovely that wishes to go somewhere and mess around! Can we never ever enjoy both?

  85. Paul Vaughan says: May 9, 2015 at 9:03 am

    The most seriously misleading article in the special edition — camouflaged as a sensible, conservative article, but entirely based on false assumptions — is the naive one on PDFs & tail weights. In all the time I’ve been following the climate discussion, not once have I seen statistical inference based on sensible assumptions. Application of PDFs in climate science appears always based on false assumptions. The culture appears permanently & fatally corrupted; correction doesn’t appear feasible.

    Translation of “Chaos” special edition message:
    “If you don’t fund our chaotic aims lavishly, there won’t be any oxygen for your grandchildren.”

    (sarc) friendly approach (/sarc)

    Indeed Paul,! Upon this planet we have much periodic with the “deterministic” of that periodic, good for predictions. Can anyone enumerate all of the local periodics? Now we have the invention of nebulous “Chaos” that truly defies any understanding whatsoever! High time to go back and hug someone you truly like!

  86. Ian Wilson says:

    Rog,

    You might be interested in this New Astronomy 2015 article:

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1384107614000992

    As per usual, Willie Soon leaves out the (peer-reviewed) work of many who are working in this field.

    A phenomenological study of the timing of solar activity minima of the last millennium through a physical modeling of the Sun–Planets Interaction
    Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco and Willie Soon
    New Astronomy 34 (2015) 164–171

    [mod note] related: http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/new-paper-links-solar-activity-to.html

  87. oldbrew says:

    The illusion that man can control the climate lives on in this headline:
    ‘Is gas a weapon in the fight against climate change?’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33022640

    Basically the big oil companies are promoting their gas as an alternative to coal.

  88. oldbrew says:

    Improved prediction of solar storms – research sent to NASA for testing.
    http://phys.org/news/2015-06-tool-large-solar-storms-hours.html

  89. Evan says:

    Slightly off-topic v.a.v. weather etc But on UKIP / EU …… have you seen / heard about the EU’s TTIP Debate today? More than just Rowdy. Only saw a clp – but saw one of our UKIPPERS demonstrating “Handstied” Yes, and the city boys want more of it?

    and Sadly James Last has Died in FL.

  90. A C Osborn says:

    Rog, here is an MP who does “get it”, the video has been posted over on the Bishop’s Hill.
    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/6/11/david-davies-does-climate-change.html#comments

    Great put down of a warmer using the IPCC Report.

  91. Ron Clutz says:

    An excellent primer by RG Brown on weather and climate models. Cross posted from WUWT

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/06/11/climate-models-explained/

  92. Andrew says:

    Willie Soon presents his new solar paper at Heartland conference

  93. Paul Vaughan says:

    Andrew, what is the source of Soon’s NH Temperature “composite”?

  94. Andrew says:

    Sorry haven’t watched it yet. Poor internet connection

  95. wayne says:

    Looks like it is finally out and this time in a published scientific paper:

    http://www.springerplus.com/content/3/1/723

    On the average temperature of airless spherical bodies and the magnitude of Earth’s atmospheric thermal effect

    Hope N&K are pleased.

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    This is a serious test…
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/06/05/noaa-tries-to-make-global-warming-slowdown-vanish/comment-page-1/#comment-102487
    …of whether the climate discussion might as well end.

  97. Andrew says:

    Paul:

    Soon, (with the help of Ronan & Michael Connelly)
    Takes the rural stations of U.S., Ireland, China & the Arctic circle (checking station history) then averages.

  98. oldbrew says:

    Big Wind’s Big Barriers (examining DOE’s fantasy scenario for a faulty technology)

    ‘There are a multitude of barriers to achieving wider geographic development of wind in the U.S.’
    http://www.masterresource.org/linowes-lisa/wind-barriers/
    ——
    Rural Scotland has had enough of wind farms, say Scottish Tories
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-33121557

  99. Ron Clutz says:

    If surface temperatures don’t skyrocket soon, expect to hear a lot in the coming months about “ocean acidification.”  This sounds scary, and that is the point of emphasizing it in the runup to Paris COP.

    Here’s a post on that topic.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/06/17/basics-of-ocean-acidification/

  100. Prolly off topic even here!

    In this USA, someone murdered several others because the others did not look, and did not believe the same as I !! Now the idiots argue over the confederate flag in S Carolina. That flag
    and the Union flag are but symbols of a great disagreement over owning another person. That caused a horrible war over such a disagreement. Let us hold both symbols high as to the magnificent stupidity of earthlings. Folk, get used to it, it ain’t going away! That war was about owning another. This new revolution is about being politically correct of folk that look different, have not the same values, yet must be in your face, one way or another, like US COPS must be!
    Was not one confederate WAR enough? Disagreement will always be. Please all, let the other disengage, with self respect! That other most likely, knows much more than you!

  101. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sun-Climate 101 in the context of marine air & sea surface temperature (MAT & SST) adjustments:

    Earlier I outlined step-by-step how NOAA’s lowess filter failed at the abrupt 1940 WWII step.

    I’ve now added a step-by-step walk-through of how the filter corrupts the last 30 years (…something which probably interests people more than the EOF/PC corruption that’s advisably of broader concern).

    Everyone please have a look at the step-by-step notes on the 1940 WWII bias spike and the unjustified 1985-2015 decadal “bias” (no such thing exists) “corrections”.

    If anything is unclear — for example to Bob Tisdale who tries to sensibly advise the broader community about this issue — let’s quickly get it cleared up before I redirect my focus back to heavier diagnostics.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/06/05/noaa-tries-to-make-global-warming-slowdown-vanish/

    Thanks

  102. Ron Clutz says:

    Investigating Tmax and Tmin trends by seasons reveals the real reason for the plateau or pause in global warming. Also a celebration of solstice.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/06/22/when-is-it-warming-the-real-reason-for-the-pause/

  103. Zeke says:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/22/historical-sunspot-numbers-are-about-to-be-given-an-adjustment/
    Our resident solar physicist Dr. Leif Svalgaard is one of the scientists involved in the effort

  104. Andrew says:

    Regional climate impacts of a solar minimum

  105. wayne says:

    Roger, mods:

    Please remove the link displayed in the sidebar to the left titled “New Identity Linking Meteorological Phenomena”. There are some serious errors within that and I may form an update in the future.

    Thanks Rog.

  106. wayne says:

    Thanks Tim.

  107. craigm350 says:

    This is in relation to the paper Andrew highlighted yesterday (above). Increasing chance of Maunder (sc24 lowest in 9k+) from Lockwood’s last paper (the one ‘the science’ denounced the reporting of whilst iirc)..but lead ‘scientist’ says it will get warmer because…

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3136780/You-need-wrap-UK-set-plunge-mini-ice-age-Met-Office-warns-one-five-chance-temperatures-drop-leaves-seen-17th-century.html

  108. Andrew says:

    INTERESTING. (Temperature, ozone & circulation characteristics)

    The 11yr SC in current reanalysis: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere

    http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/6879/2015/acp-15-6879-2015.pdf

  109. Andrew says:

    And there’s more

    The impact of ozone depleting substances on the circulation, temp and salinity of the southern ocean.

    “Unambiguous evidence that the increased concentration of ODS …are likely to have been an important driver of change to the southern ocean”

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064744/abstract

  110. Michele says:

    London 02-07-2015 +20°C 850hPa

  111. oldbrew says:

    ‘The proposed Offshore Floating Nuclear Plant structure is about 45 meters in diameter, and the plant will generate 300 megawatts of electricity. ‘
    http://scitechdaily.com/floating-nuclear-power-plant-safer-cheaper/

    No NIMBYs at least.

  112. oldbrew says:

    Interesting results and graphics from the SWARM project:

    ‘After a year in orbit, the three Swarm satellites have provided a first glimpse inside Earth and started to shed new light on the dynamics of the upper atmosphere – all the way from the ionosphere about 100 km above, through to the outer reaches of our protective magnetic shield.’
    http://phys.org/print354260948.html


    [Credit: Cornell University School of Continuing Education and Summer Sessions]

  113. Michele says:

    noise on the way …

  114. Paul Vaughan says:

    like Sidorenkov told us,
    it’s the water cycle…
    measuring soil moisture via cosmic-ray neutron method = ground albedo neutron sensing (GANS)…
    …systematic hydrological deviations from pressure, heavy cloud, & precipitation…
    a new path to explore…

    Integral quantification of seasonal soil moisture changes in farmland by cosmic-ray neutrons
    http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/3843/2011/hess-15-3843-2011.pdf

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