Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 8)

  1. Ian Wilson says:

    Here is Part B of my latest blog post:

    Show that the quasi-decadal oscilation and the bi-decadal oscillation in the rate of change of the smoothed global temperature anomalies can both be explained by lunar tidal cycles.

    I know that Paul V. may not agree with me on this but I put to him that the 20 year (bi-decadal) and 60 year temperature cycle may be set by the Barycentric motion of the Sun (possibly restricted to the oceans in the Northern Hemisphere (particularly the Northern Pacific)), and these solar/planetary induced cycles [whether it be solar induced changes in winds, currents or cloud cover) mesh with the 20.666 year and 9.30 year lunar tidal cycles.

  2. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ian, my objection differs fundamentally from your misinterpretation of it. I encourage you to stop to realize that a major misunderstanding has occurred. Perhaps it will take many years to correct it.

  3. Ian Wilson says:


    In order to disprove my claims you must show where they are wrong. You cannot just point to your overall climate model and claim that my work does not fit into your scheme of things. You must provide specific observational evidence that contradicts my claims. My claims are not a grand unifying theory about the complete climate system – just a limited claim about the global temperature anomalies on decadal to bi-decadal time scales.

    Paul, if you look at the temperature record you can see that the global mean temperature pretty much follows that ENSO indices over time frames up to the semi-decadal level. Its their right in front of your eyes. So I think at least up to the semi-decadal level you will have trouble denying the observational evidence. I am just saying that there is some overlap between what happens at the 1 – 5 year time scale with what happens at the 10 – 20 year time scale.

  4. Paul Vaughan says:


    I’m not questioning your claims about the moon. I haven’t assessed them at all.

    Please recognize that some misinterpretation / misunderstanding is at play.

    I have raised an objection, but it’s not an objection to your research. It’s an objection to a more general claim you’ve made that’s unrelated to your research …and I won’t try to hide that it’s a stern objection …but it’s no threat to your research because your research falls in a different area completely.


  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    “El Nino, which wreaks havoc on world weather patterns every two to seven years, has hit particularly hard this year, causing unusually heavy rainfall in the world’s driest desert.”

    “This year has been particularly special, because the amount of rainfall has made this perhaps the most spectacular of the past 40 or 50 years”

    “Two flowerings a year is very unusual in the most arid desert in the world”

    “El Nino covers arid Atacama desert in blanket of flowers”

  6. J Martin says:

    No doubt Scute and Frank Davis are aware of the fireball reported over Bangkok.

  7. Dimis Poulos says:

    there is a presentation now available on my blog to visualize the documentation and mechanisms involved in solar wind driven climate variability

  8. Anything is possible says:

    Here’s something for you gravity wallahs to get your teeth into :


  9. oldbrew says:

    ‘Study of cloud cover in tropical Pacific reveals future climate changes’

    “This study makes innovative use of a decades old-dataset,” said Amy Clement, professor of atmospheric science at the UM Rosenstiel School. “It is impressive that visual observations from the decks of ships transiting the Pacific Ocean over a half-century can tell us something so fundamental about climate change.”

    Sounds like a joke? Read on…

  10. oldbrew says:

    More from the crazy world of climate fundamentalism.


    ‘The real national security threat is your refrigerator’

  11. Andrew says:

    May have reported this before

    Solar forcing synchronises decadal North Atlantic climate variability

  12. tchannon says:

    A superb working fluid for thermal pumps, in widespread industrial use, completely natural, exists.

    One problem: In high concentration in the air it is very harmful to humans dooming the substance to smashing up by fiction dreamers.


  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    nasty looking lukewarmer pitch at ce today — now that is sleazy
    we should rename them lurkwarmers for being so dark & snaky

    they’re really skeptics & alarmists feigning moderation and absolutely insisting that everything remain branded uncertain even in the face of proof to the contrary
    a creepy bunch of manipulative people if I ever saw one, trying everything and anything possible to pull people into an irrational position defined by politics alone

    taking a bunch of black & white and painting it grey just leaves the truth lurking beneath a dishonest veneer
    the sensible thing to do is accept differing beliefs

    i believe this
    you believe that
    we disagree
    …and that’s that (end of story)
    instead of politically engineering a climate belief system divorced from geophysical observation

    lurkwarmers are political monsters —- the only tactic they have is bullying, because there’s nothing in the geophysical record to support their political construction

    creepy beyond belief….

    That’s it for jc & ce — final verdict: permanent write off (no apologies)

    – –

    exploration update:
    long-run average 27.03 day solar cycle is confounded via lunar draconic cycle with 1470 year D-O (nearly exactly camouflages aliasing…. to naive eyes this would make it look like the moon is doing something it it NOT doing…. (it’s actually the sun doing ALL the heating — all the moon does is scramble) —- to be continued…..)


  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sober Reflection

    We’re coming up on a year since ERSSTv4 was released and it has not yet been retracted.
    This is an untenable scenario. Sensible parties have a responsibility to assist with correction without further unjustifiable delay.

    At this intolerable juncture I propose that every member of the climate discussion community be judged according to a single, simple, clear-cut criterion:

    They either acknowledge or do not acknowledge the following:

    Paul L. Vaughan, B.Sc., M.Sc.

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    Request for Assistance from All Sensible Parties:

    Please help gather critically informative data on every single climate discussion participant at every single blog touching even so little as peripherally on climate by asking the following:

    Classification Key:
    acknowledge = aware, honest
    fail to acknowledge = darkly ignorant &/or darkly deceptive

  16. oldbrew says:

    ‘Located 1.5 million km from the Earth, ESA’s Gaia spacecraft is scanning the sky to conduct the most detailed census of stars in our Galaxy. However, on 6 November, it will be perfectly placed to witness a rare event that will involve objects much closer to home – a lunar transit across the Sun.’

    Point of interest:

    ‘During the first year of Gaia’s science mission scientists have already seen small variations in the temperature data collected. The yearly change in solar distance due to the elliptical orbit of Gaia about the Sun results in a variation equivalent to ± 3.4% in the solar flux. This leads to a change of ± 1.2 °C in the temperature records.’ [bold added]

    Read more at:

  17. tchannon says:

    Greenpeace told to Modi Operandii

    “India orders Greenpeace to shut down over fraud”

    Couldn’t find an Indian government statement.

  18. tchannon says:

    “France to set up border checks for Paris UN climate talks ”

    How silly.

  19. tchannon says:

    “Sandstorms and repeated floods plague Jordan, Israel, Iraq and Egypt.”

    “58 Iraqi’s dies from electrocution last week.

  20. oldbrew says:

    TC says: “France to set up border checks for Paris UN climate talks ”

    How silly.
    What’s the backhander rate for French border guards these days? 😉
    Probably more than £20…

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    Michele (November 6, 2015 at 9:09 am) linked to a Sidorenkov (2014) article I’ve never seen: The Chandler wobble of the poles and its amplitude modulation.

    Thank you Michele. Much appreciated. You’ve provided a much-needed perfect opportunity.

    That can be expressed far more tersely.

    Also it’s generalizable, so extension by analogy to semi-annual is a trivial exercise. Why semi-annual isn’t more intuitive to people (??) is one of the great puzzles in the most stubborn climate discussion bottleneck of all.

    Michele, thank you. This may be the key to finally getting people to understand the solar terrestrial weave and it’s implications for multidecadal terrestrial heat engine asymmetry (via solar cycle length differintegral geometry).

    I have calculations to organize for presentation….
    Man, that was quick. Looked at Sidorenkov’s article and then bang, bang, bang all the results just fell out….

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here are some of the numbers that fall like dominoes out of a terse generalization by analogous extension:


    That’s all based trivially on lunar month subharmonics nearest annual & semi-annual heat engine periods.

    The root of the gravity oscillations although proximately lunisolar in appearance is ultimately solar systematic.

    I’ll present calculation details as/when time permits. It might be most concise to just pop it all in a table rather than spell out the factorial beat matrix (too verbose to be aesthetic — less is more …unless you’re a dull wingless administrator red-taped to uninspired surface incrementalism that can never fly to a well of greater potential…)

  23. tallbloke says:

    You’re such a tease. 😉

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    Let’s start with a sample — one cell from the matrix — the most important one and the one Sidorenkov has never mentioned anywhere, to the best of my current awareness:

    tropical semi-annual cycle = 182.621095 days
    lunar tropical month = 27.321582 days

    To determine subharmonic of lunar tropical month nearest semiannual:
    182.621095 / 27.321582 = 6.684133261
    which rounds off to 7

    so subharmonic of lunar tropical month nearest semiannual
    = 7 * 27.321582 = 191.251074 days = 0.5236281 tropical years

    Beat with semi-annual:
    (0.5236281)*(0.5) / (0.5236281 – 0.5) = 11.08062221 tropical years

    Reminder of beat of lunar draconic month with long-run average equatorial solar rotation rate:
    (27.212221)*(27.03) / (27.212221 – 27.03) = 4036.561832 days = 11.0517403 tropical years
    (Remember that 27.03 is a rounded-off figure that we do not have determined any more precisely.)

    Mainstreamers will never believe how precisely this pieces together with bidecadal… (to be continued….) because by religion they are sworn to ignore the beauty of nature.

    OK, I’m cuing up more calculations now — to h*ck with the table, I’ll just pour the results out in a mess and let people have the good fun of assembly from the splash-painting.

    Thank God for Tallbloke & the Talkshop.
    I’d be jailed for presenting these explorations elsewhere.

  25. Paul Vaughan says:

    Terse derivation of Sidorenkov’s lunar subharmonic nearest-annual:

    13 * 27.321582 = 355.180566 days = 0.972452185767477 tropical years
    13 * 27.212221 = 353.758873 days = 0.968559719237255 tropical years
    13 * 27.55455 = 358.20915 days = 0.980744174160165 tropical years
    12 * 29.530589 = 354.367068 days = 0.970224902002696 tropical years

    beats with annual:
    (1)*(0.972452186) / (1 – 0.972452186) = 35.30052067 (Sidorenkov “35.3”)
    (1)*(0.968559719) / (1 – 0.968559719) = 30.80633174 (Sidorenkov omits)
    (1)*(0.980744174) / (1 – 0.980744174) = 50.93233509 (Sidorenkov “50.9”)
    (1)*(0.970224902) / (1 – 0.970224902) = 32.58511196 (Sidorenkov “32.6”)

    Please follow Michele’s link to Sidorenkov (2014) to recognize the mathematical equivalence of subharmonic conceptualization (Sidorenkov: “slow periodic variations in the CWP amplitude with periods of 32 to 51 years”).

    (50.93233509)*(35.30052067) / (50.93233509 + 35.30052067) = 20.84980176
    (50.93233509)*(30.80633174) / (50.93233509 + 30.80633174) = 19.19579156
    (50.93233509)*(32.58511196) / (50.93233509 + 32.58511196) = 19.87172621 (Jupiter-Saturn)

    (35.30052067)*(30.80633174) / (35.30052067 – 30.80633174) = 241.974596 (Recall Earth-Venus transit cycle.)

    nearest semi-annual subharmonics:
    7 * 182.621095 = 191.251074 days = 0.523628100028641 tropical years
    7 * 182.621095 = 190.485547 days = 0.521532156512368 tropical years
    7 * 182.621095 = 192.88185 days = 0.528093016855473 tropical years
    6 * 182.621095 = 177.183534 days = 0.485112451001348 tropical years

    beats with semi-annual:
    (0.5236281)*(0.5) / (0.5236281 – 0.5) = 11.08062221 (Jupiter Earth Venus = Jupiter+Neptune = Schwabe average)
    (0.521532157)*(0.5) / (0.521532157 – 0.5) = 12.11054165
    (0.528093017)*(0.5) / (0.528093017 – 0.5) = 9.39900865
    (0.5)*(0.485112451) / (0.5 – 0.485112451) = 16.29255598

    (16.29255598)*(9.39900865) / (16.29255598 – 9.39900865) = 22.21408909 (JEV = J+N = Hale)
    (16.29255598)*(9.39900865) / (16.29255598 + 9.39900865) = 5.960472894 (Jupiter)
    (16.29255598)*(9.39900865) / ( (16.29255598 + 9.39900865) / 2 ) = 11.92094579 (Jupiter)

    With the perennial exception of luminaries, I think it will be difficult for most people to make sense of this as presented here. They should at least get the tip that this is a more general summary of specifics detailed in Sidorenkov (2014). Moving forward this can be reorganized (by someone with time) for broader digestion, but meanwhile luminaries need not wait for such (technically unnecessary) cosmetics.

    If you remember the gravity oscillation experiments we discussed in previous TT Suggestions threads, this is the 5.93 year term and we can again see that all of this can be simply categorized as either heliocentric or barycentric.

    These are the roots of optical depth volatility timing frameworks.
    These frameworks beat to give 1470 years (to be continued).

    Important Reminder
    that will be repeated until understood:

    Multidecadal Notwithstanding Clause: Remember that ALL movements of solar activity on these timing frameworks are necessarily defined by the SCL (solar cycle length) differintegral. It literally can be no other way by geometric construction. (It’s a proof in the mathematical sense.)

  26. Paul Vaughan says:

    The most important point out of all of this:
    The lunar synodic month, the terrestrial tropical year, and the semi-annual heat engine combine to produce an 11.08 year cycle.

    Now it will be informative to observe whether than gets anyone unstuck.

  27. Ian Wilson says:

    Rog and Tim,

    Here is my next contribution. I have one to follow in the next day or so on the QBO.

  28. Ian Wilson says:

    Remarkable work Paul – thanks for spending the time to lay it out so that we can follow along.

    I too have produced the 11.07 year cycle by beating the half year with the nearest multiple of the tropical month. I was intrigued by the possibility that it was linked to the VEJ solar cycle but had trouble thinking of why their would be a physical link – so I kept quiet.

    I think that you have a typo – it should read:

    “nearest semi-annual subharmonics:

    7 * 27.321582 = 191.251074 days = 0.523628100028641 tropical years
    7 * 27.212221 = 190.485547 days = 0.521532156512368 tropical years
    7 * 27.554550 = 192.88185 days = 0.528093016855473 tropical years
    6 * 29.530589 = 177.183534 days = 0.485112451001348 tropical years”

    Paul Pukite has indicated that the two dominant frequencies that he finds in the QBO are 2.715 and 2.370 tropical years.

    The 2.715 tropical year period can be obtained by sampling either the tropical or synodic months annually and determining the dominant frequencies of the resultant annually aliased signal.

    However , I have found a incredible link between the 2.370 year [the nominal mean QBO period if it is twice the Chandler wobble period of 432.8 days] and the 2.3506 period that I have harping on about in my posts. All will be revealed in part C of my series of posts.

    I am coming around to believing that the luni-solar tides are like a weave that knits together the Chandler wobble/QBO with the multi-decadal solar barycentric motions – which are themselves
    linked to solar activity that is being driven by the planets.

  29. Ian Wilson says:

    That should be:

    Paul Pukite has indicated that the two dominant frequencies that he finds in the QBO are
    2.715 and 2.370 tropical years.

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rephrasing even more simply:

    11.08 year physical aliasing arises from nothing more than the following:
    a) lunar synodic month
    b) annual heat engine
    c) semi-annual heat engine

    lunar synodic month & annual:
    (365.242189)*(29.530589) / (365.242189 + 29.530589) = 27.32158236 days (lunar tropical month)

    subharmonic nearest semi-annual:
    7*(27.32158236) = 191.2510765 days

    beat with semi-annual:
    (191.2510765)*(182.6210945) / (191.2510765 – 182.6210945) = 4047.10934 days
    (4047.10934) / 365.242189 = 11.08061845 tropical years

    This is one of those really simple things we all should have noticed sooner.

    Remember that there’s 11.1 year cyclic volatility in semi-annual earth rotation and that this was one of the 2 biggest landmark clues arising in climate exploration during the past 2 decades (original credit goes to Dickey & Keppenne (1997)).

    I haven’t written to Jean Dickey in a long time, but it’s worthwhile to point this out to her. I still think all US climate research should be placed under her direction and that she additionally (somehow) be granted freedom from political interference (not sure how it’s possible but I think many here can despite this agree in principle at least no matter how naive it may sound in practice).

  31. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ian suggested:
    “I think that you have a typo”

    Yes — what I get for using automated concatenation while speeding to save time communicating.

    7 * 27.321582 = 191.251074 days = 0.523628101462288 tropical years
    7 * 27.212221 = 190.485547 days = 0.521532157940276 tropical years
    7 * 27.55455 = 192.88185 days = 0.528093018301344 tropical years
    6 * 29.530589 = 177.183534 days = 0.485112452329542 tropical years


    7 * 182.621095 = 191.251074 days = 0.523628100028641 tropical years
    7 * 182.621095 = 190.485547 days = 0.521532156512368 tropical years
    7 * 182.621095 = 192.88185 days = 0.528093016855473 tropical years
    6 * 182.621095 = 177.183534 days = 0.485112451001348 tropical years

    Applies to (November 7, 2015 at 12:23 am).

    Thank you.

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    In response to Ian’s commentary on Paul Pukite’s findings:

    synodic = 29.530589 days

    nearest harmonic of tropical year:
    (365.242189) / 12 = 30.43684908 days

    physical aliasing:
    (30.43684908)*(29.530589) / (30.43684908 – 29.530589) = 991.7882264 days
    (991.7882264) / 365.242189 = 2.715426247 tropical years

    draconic = 27.212221

    nearest harmonic of tropical year:
    (365.242189) / 13 = 28.095553

    physical aliasing:
    (28.095553)*(27.212221) / (28.095553 – 27.212221) = 865.5210016 days
    (865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718033 tropical years

    old news? yes …but always good to see awareness growing

  33. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ian suggested:
    “I am coming around to believing that the luni-solar tides are like a weave that knits together the Chandler wobble/QBO with the multi-decadal solar barycentric motions – which are themselves linked to solar activity that is being driven by the planets.”

    It’s just a balanced multi-axial differential.

    Steering in a car is bi-axial with a+b = constant, but here we have more axes and thus a constraint of the form a+b+c+…=constant.

    There’s some freedom in the sense that b can change …but then a, c, etc. are collectively constrained to exactly compensate.

    With oldschool statistical methods, this won’t necessarily register and can even register counterintuitively if the practitioner is blind to the coupling structure (since they’ll be blindly modelling pdfs on totally false assumptions).

    I gave a presentation many years ago to a group of undergraduate students who were stunned at how extremely their natural intuition failed them in such cases. It was precisely because they had been aggressively conditioned for years to assume independence with no attention (careful or otherwise) to diagnostics.

    I gave an example using the components of course grades (e.g. assignment#1, assignment#1, midterm exam, final exam) and used multivariate scatterplots to illustrate just how badly intuition fails if an explorer is blind to aggregate constraints on clusters of variables.

    Ignorant interpretation in such cases is ridiculously nonsensical.
    There was a lot of literally amazed jaw-dropping and I knew I’d made my point.

    These students were brilliant theoretically, but they were beyond naive & inexperienced in practice because their program gave only a minimally symbolic introduction to practice. I knew their mentors had failed them so I wanted to alert them to the need for careful diagnostics in practice.

    With an aesthetic criterion like the Pareto Principle guiding our use of time we’ll never reach most people with this alert, but it’s enough if luminaries learn to recognize balanced multi-axial differentials from the multivariate topology (and that’s easily feasible).

  34. Paul Vaughan says:

    the “axes” of which I’ve written aren’t physical axes

  35. Paul Vaughan says:

    Topologically the energy is cycling between wells in a network and our sampling is aliasing from hierarchical, incommensurate looping structures.

    On top of that there’s frequency shift in the asymmetric driving (detectable by tachometer).

    Fortunately we have constraints like geometric axioms, the law of large numbers, and the law of conservation of angular momentum, so we’re empowered to identify global attractors conclusively.

    If people can learn firsthand to understand deeply the detection of the decadal cyclic volatility of the semi-annual heat engine from earth rotation records, it shouldn’t be as much of a stretch to intuitively grasp multidecadal solar cycle length differintegral geometry as nothing more than a simple asymmetry-phase-adjustment knob.

    It’s just an excitation that can shift asymmetrically one way or another spatially with a commensurate timing shift. It’s as much a consequence of the asymmetric geography as of the timing shift.

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ian chooses to regard this as OT in the lunisolar thread, so I’m saying it here…

    TB inquired here:


    crystal clear alert ignored by bureaucrats:

    kindergarten-level step-by-step ERSSTv4-bias cookbook recipe volunteered here:
    (effortlessly verified by the one commentator who bothered to actually pursue the 2 minute exercise)

    With 1 or 2 rounds of careful distortion every natural pattern we’ve ever discussed can be erased.

    Like I said on Jan. 1:
    “Historically, the release of ERSSTv4 may well mark the end of worthwhile climate discussion.”

    People aren’t taking this seriously enough.

    The pervasive, revealing attitude is “Go ahead NOAA and deface natural oscillations — I’ll only complain if you adjust the linear trend upwards” …which is pretty shallow.

    The precedent is being set that skeptics are such a joke that they can’t even subtract one column of numbers from another to notice (never mind challenge) natural history vandalism.

    So far as I’m aware I’m the only person who has confronted NOAA about this.

    Is this really OT in a lunisolar thread? MEI provides a better-constrained partition of unity. Just ask Per Strandberg how his NNs do with non-MEI ENSO input… Do you see the IPO in the so-called “bias” adjustment and realize it’s relation to ENSO and polar motion??… Is it best trying to figure out lunisolar pattern with data that are a moving target?? Come on folks…. head out of the sand here…

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    “I have you done the simple calculations! Your conclusion is without error!!!”

  38. oldbrew says:

    This is funny – unless you pay German electricity bills.

    ‘Siesta Energy…Germany’s 40 Gigawatts Of Installed Wind Capacity Habitually Fails To Report To Work!’

    ‘Yesterday early afternoon the 40 GW of installed capacity managed to deliver a puny 0.168 GW, or only 0.4% of its installed rated capacity. That’s like 4 people showing up for work in a company of 1000 employees.’

  39. oldbrew says:

    NASA photo gallery: How to blow $200m of rocket in seconds
    Orbital’s Antares epic fail in living color

  40. Ian Wilson says:

    Here is a useful climate tool that gives you easy access to a New Drought Atlas map for Europe over the last 2000 years or so.

  41. oldbrew says:

    ‘Shell and ExxonMobile will use American shale gas from the Ineos plant in Grangemouth to make ethylene in Fife.’

    Scots could try drilling for their own shale gas, but that’s not PC is it?

  42. oldbrew says:

    Quotes from the former chief of Energy UK:

    “If you rely on government subsidies, you are in the hands of governments. You cannot assume you have a God-given right to a subsidy – you have to get a grip on that.”

    “Germany’s energy policy is barking [mad] – they have blown holes through their commercial energy companies.”

    “Germany may be a poster child for the green lobby but it is not a poster child for a common sense and a practical approach to industry. You can’t apply a heart-rending approach to a major industry.”

    She said that “energy and climate change are not the same thing – they should be separated. Energy has to be a practical policy – it cannot be an emotional policy, and climate change is an emotional policy. It will lead to the wrong outcomes.”

  43. oldbrew says:


    ‘The British government’s devious, cynical, hypocritical energy policy has just unravelled horribly – with the leak to The Ecologist of a private ministerial letter which admits that Britain hasn’t a hope of meeting its legally-mandated “clean energy” targets.’

    Something else to sweep under the carpet pre-Paris.

  44. oldbrew says:

    Enforcement time…latest climate wheeze: French president calls for environmental ‘security council’

    ‘The role of such a council would be to tell countries deviating from their carbon-curbing commitments: “This is not acceptable, your behaviour is dangerous,” Hollande said.

    Such a body could also be tasked with enforcing decisions taken at the Paris summit.

    “This also means: what sanctions will we apply when the behaviour of a country or a group, industrial or other… disrupts what we ourselves have decided?” he said.’

  45. oldbrew says:

    UK’s ‘triple-A’ energy score downgraded due to capacity challenges

    ‘The UK’s rating in the World Energy Council’s (WEC) annual Energy Trilemma Index has been downgraded from AAA to AAB.’

    ‘Other countries on the watch list include Germany, Japan, Italy, Mexico, South Africa, Serbia, the UAE and the US. South Africa was newly added this year due to its electricity crisis, as was the US due to a lack of investment in aging infrastructure and exposure to extreme weather events.’

  46. oldbrew says:

    VW scandal – it’s worse than we thought.

    Der Spiegel writes: ‘As the Volkswagen scandal widens, German government complicity has become impossible to ignore.’

    Volkswagen’s deceit goes well beyond diesel emissions. The company’s fuel efficiency claims have also been revealed as fraudulent. But some of the guilt lies with a German government that did all it could to make life easy on automakers.’

  47. oldbrew says:

    ‘Global influences of the 18.61 year nodal cycle and 8.85 year cycle of lunar perigee on high tidal levels’

    Authors: Ivan D. Haigh, Matt Eliot, Charitha Pattiaratchi
    First published: 29 June 2011 (Cited by: 16 articles)

    ‘the nodal modulation was maximum in 1997 and will peak again in 2015’ [October, they say]

    NB publication date – over four years ago. El Nino reaching max right on cue.
    No man-made warming nonsense necessary.

  48. Paul Vaughan says:

    Pukite modelling QBO change:

    Stuck IDing 2.96:

    (11.862615)*(2.369718033) / (11.862615 – 2.369718033) = 2.961272284

  49. Michele says:

    FFT solar polar field :

    No 20nhz low pass filtered

    6,55 years
    0,958 years = 349,89 days
    1,062 years = 387,88 days

  50. tchannon says:

    michele, the polar data contains a doublet but so far as I could tell this is caused by defective data sampling. I have written about this in the past.

    A fairly recent article is this

  51. oldbrew says:

    Ancient Saharan river systems – paper.

    Astronomically forced insolation changes have driven monsoon dynamics and the periodical onset of humid episodes in North Africa over the last few million years, resulting in the ‘greening’ of the Sahara and savannah expansion throughout most of the desert at times.’
    [bold added]

    ‘Investigation of sedimentary records from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea off the Nile River has allowed the identification of nine distinct sapropel layers during the last 245 kyr (ref. 1), all occurring during precession-driven summer insolation maxima.’

    Pop-sci version:

    H/T Society for Interdisciplinary Studies (SIS)

  52. Paul Vaughan says:

    “tchannon says:
    November 14, 2015 at 3:56 pm

    michele, the polar data contains a doublet but so far as I could tell this is caused by defective data sampling.”

    defective data sampling??
    It’s just the Hale polarity reversal every Schwabe cycle.
    These aren’t additive sinusoids!!

  53. Paul Vaughan says:

    good find OB

    oldbrew wrote: “Ancient Saharan river systems”

    “Precessional wet-dry cycles recorded by variations in eolian dust percentages preserved in marine sediments off West Africa (Site 659) and East Africa (Site 722/722) (figure after deMenocal et al. 2004). Note that the amplitude modulation of the dust cycles tracks orbital eccentricity (smooth line) indicating persistent wet-dry cycles throughout the 2.0-3.5 Ma interval shown here. Large, deep lake conditions (diatomite sediments) are found at several East African localities during some (not all) high-eccentricity intervals, as indicated indicated by the blue bars here (Trauth et al., 2005; Kingston et al., 2007).”

  54. oldbrew says:

    Report: ‘Saharan Dust Travels More Than 5,000 Miles to South Texas’

    Saharan dust ‘may impact cloud formation.’

    ‘…a recent study by NASA scientists has found that the dust acts as a fertilizer for the Amazon rainforest.’

  55. oldbrew says:

    Evidence for intermittent cosmic ray variations:

    ‘Observed cosmic rays may have come from two-million-year-old supernova’

    “Traditionally in cosmic ray physics, one uses the approximation that the sources of cosmic rays are smoothly distributed in time and space,” Kachelrieß, a physics professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim, told “Our paper and the related work show that this approximation should be abandoned. For the understanding of many physical phenomena, it is important to take into account that cosmic rays are accelerated in events which happen only about once per century in our galaxy.”
    [bold added]

  56. oldbrew says:

    Scottish Nationalists in air tax row – paranoid climate types complaining again.

    ‘Slashing air tax will damage the climate, ministers told’

    Only in their dreams/fantasies.

  57. Oldbrew,

    If we accept that cosmic rays are responsible for seeding clouds and modulating the Earth’s temperature through changes in albedo then I can give you a 3 million weather forecast for free.

    Around about 3 – 5 million years ago our Sun entered a large spherical cavity in space called the Local Bubble. This is a cavity in interstellar space that is 330 to 490 light years in diameter, inside of which the interstellar medium (ISM) density is roughly 1/10th the normal galactic ISM density. While in this cavity, our solar system is exposed to the cosmic rays from the supernovae going off in the nearby OB associations (i.e. clusters of young hot stars of MK spectral type O and early B with initial masses above about 8 solar masses) that are embedded in the surrounding walls of the void. Ref:

    The increased cosmic ray flux has lead to increasing cloud cover and so a general cooling of the Earth’s climate. This has produced series of ice-ages that have dominated the Earth’s climate over the last 3 or 4 million years.

    Our Sun is currently about half way across the local void and it will enter a density enhancement called the Local Fluff in about 50,000 years which is about 25.0 light years in diameter. Some argue that when we enter into this cloud, it will temporarily shield our solar system from cosmic ray bombardment from the OB associations (though others argue the opposite i.e. the cloud is made up of material driven off by old supernova explosions in the nearby OB Association and so it will enhance our cosmic ray bombardment).

    It will be another 3 million years, however, before we reach the relative safety of the other side of the spherical void. This means that after the brief passage through the Local Fluff, starting in roughly 50,000 years, world temperatures will resume cooling for at least another 3 million years – with the Milankovitch Cycles dominating our climate system.

    Donations to my Super Climate Prediction Fund (SCPF) can be made at your local supermarket.

    Your Welcome.

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    Fine stuff on Saharan dust OB.

    The role of aerosols in the evolution of tropical North Atlantic ocean temperature anomalies

    Click to access Evan_et_al_2009.pdf

    Multidecadal covariability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, African dust, Sahel rainfall, and Atlantic hurricanes

    Click to access Wang_etal_2012_JC.pdf

  59. oldbrew says:

    Roman Warm Period temperatures ‘basically the same as today.’

    At about 2300 years ago it equates to one Hallstatt cycle.

    ‘Solar Max And The Effects Of Solar Variability’

    ‘As previously mentioned, our sun goes through cycles of activity. The most prominent of these cycles is the 11 year sunspot cycle though there are other cycles (The Hallstatt solar cycle (2300 years) and the Gleissberg solar cycle (80-90 years), etc.).’

  60. oldbrew says:

    PV: then there’s the Asian Brown Cloud (ABC).

    ‘Another major impact is on the polar ice caps. Black carbon (soot) in the Asian Brown Cloud may be reflecting sunlight and dimming Earth below but it is warming other places by absorbing incoming radiation and warming the atmosphere and whatever it touches.[19] Black carbon is three times more effective than carbon dioxide—the most common greenhouse gas—at melting polar ice and snow.[20] Black carbon in snow causes about three times the temperature change as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. On snow —even at concentrations below five parts per billion— dark carbon triggers melting, and may be responsible for as much as 94 percent of Arctic warming.’

    Of course this is Wikipedia so it isn’t necessarily 100% correct.

  61. Paul Vaughan says:

    black carbon absorbing sunlight in the polar night = brilliant (/sarc)

  62. oldmanK says:

    Something that may be viewed as heretical from the “unchanging obliquity” crowd: From where I see things the next ‘big-do’ for earth is a decrease in obliquity ( see Dodwell thread). Now that point in the cyclic changes occurred earlier at a date latest 3195BCE +50 -0 (or a bit earlier), and earliest 3350bce a guesstimate here.

    Does it connect with anything extraordinary in the available data? Sudden polar cooling onset should be evident.

  63. oldbrew says:

    Hockey stick for sale…

    Source: NASA (minus the yellow lines)

  64. tchannon says:

    As I recall the hockey shape as used by Mann, which has a restricted handle, fits in several other places since the last ice age. Never seems to get mentioned by the team.

  65. Ed says:

    Having experienced and worked in drought relief in Southern Africa, I have a keen interest in the topic. Alexander’s paper predicted the current drought and he is suggesting the cycle will change in 2016.

    “Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development.pdf”

    Available from this link;

    It will be interesting to see how it develops.
    For the sake of all affected, I hope the drought does break soon.

  66. Paul Vaughan says:

    6 years after Piers Corbyn first gave a very precise tip on where to start, Paul Pukite has at long last realized (without acknowledgement) that I was NOT wrong in my careful first-order assessments and judgement that Corbyn was right.

    Surely Defense navigation & guidance experts of global military powers have known about this stuff since at least the 1960s. I’ve long held this up as proof that the majority of climate scientists aren’t qualified for their jobs. They don’t have the right background. Funding for such work should be directed to agencies such as NASA JPL.

    TB may be interested to take very specific note the one term Pukite’s having trouble facing. Pukite’s perhaps less of a flat-earther now for being willing to acknowledge the role of sun & moon in tides, but he appears unready to consider solar system heavy-weight Jupiter:

    (Jupiter)*(QBO) / (Jupiter – QBO)
    = (11.86307535)*(2.369718033) / (11.86307535 – 2.369718033)
    = 2.961243598 tropical years

    (solar cycle beat with the nearest subharmonic of 6.4 year polar motion envelope, which constrains aggregation via eclipitic aliasing of draconic)

  67. Paul Vaughan says:

    6 years after (not 7)

  68. Paul Vaughan says:

    alternate way to look at it:
    Jupiter-Earth-Venus = axial Jupiter+Neptune beat with the nearest subharmonic of 6.4 year polar motion envelope (near Jupiter-Neptune), which constrains aggregation via eclipitic aliasing of draconic

  69. tallbloke says:

    Paul, Noted, and thanks for sharing – even with greedy tw@ts like Paul Pukite.

  70. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s the article Pukite cites:

    Ray, R.D.; & Erofeeva, S.Y. (2014). Long-period tidal variations in the length of day. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth 119, 1498-1509.

    Click to access ErofeevaSvetlanaCEOASLong-PeriodTidal.pdf

  71. Paul Vaughan says:

    “One final point about the tidal potential concerns possible secular trends. In an earlier computation of the tide-generating potential at three epochs separated by about 50 years, Cartwright and Tayler [1971] noticed that several lines are undergoing discernible secular trends. Hartmann and Wenzel [1995] explicitly account for this by computing linear rates for all spectral lines in their potential. Kudryavtsev [2004] also includes quadratic terms. In the long-period band of interest here, the most significant trends are in Ssa and Mf, both of which are declinational tides and so are presumably responding to the present-day decrease in obliquity of about 47′′ per century. The trend in Mf is approximately −0.1% per century, which in light of our other thresholds we can here ignore. So our model corresponds to the epoch of the constant terms in the Hartmann-Wenzel tables, which is J2000. As the space-geodetic time series continues to lengthen, this time dependence must eventually be revisited.” — Ray & Erofeeva (2014)

    Ssa = 182.6210945 days (tropical semi-annual)
    Mf = 13.66079118 days (tropical lunar half-month)

  72. oldbrew says:

    ‘400(?) years of warming – So, exactly how long has it been warming?’

    ‘The politically driven push to manufacture a premature consensus on human caused climate change and create an argument based on bootstrapped plausibility has misdirected climate science for the past two decades. The hockey stick attempted to wipeout secular variations prior to the 20th century, but even Mike’s Nature trick spliced the early 20th century warming as an integral part of the blade. At most, only a small fraction of the early 20th century warming was caused by CO2’

  73. oldbrew says:

    ‘The Climate Show Carries On

    The Paris climate summit is a gigantic photo op – where ineffectual political leaders will pretend to be environmental superheroes.’

    Donna L. says: ‘Political leaders who’ve proved themselves incapable of balancing budgets or fixing broken education systems love to pose as environmental superheroes saving the planet in the nick of time.

    Luckily, the public wasn’t born yesterday.’

    Gordon Brown’s ’50 days to save the world’ sounds even more embarrassing now than it did in 2009 – or whenever it was.

  74. oldbrew says:

    ‘In a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, a Yale-led research team explored differences in ocean temperatures over the last 5 million years. The team created a historical record for sea temperature gradients and compared it with state-of-the-art climate model simulations.’

    Read more at:

    The early Pliocene was the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were as high as today’s levels, yet ocean temperatures during the Pliocene—from the subtropics to the Artic—were much warmer than today. The tropical Pacific, for example, had conditions resembling a modern El Niño that persisted for thousands of years.

    “The puzzle is how to explain this warmth during the Pliocene,” said lead author Alexey Fedorov, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale. “Ocean temperature contrasts are a major part of this puzzle.” ‘

    Warmer sea temps would lead to greater outgassing of CO2.

  75. oldbrew says:

    The EU wants ‘an integrated North Sea offshore grid’.

    ‘European Commission chief emphasises North Sea offshore wind plan’

    What happens when it’s not windy is never discussed of course.

  76. oldmanK says:

    Something Paul V said in suggestion 13 was intriguing, where he started with “brace yourselves”. Especially the part saying ““aliasing problem” in Abreu+ (2012) figure 5 (solar activity & planetary torque frequencies) isn’t pointing to solar activity but rather to mass redistribution on earth”.

    Trying to figure out the “”Mass redistribution””” bit I roamed the site some, and came on the Doggerland story. Date ~6200 bce. On the holocene temp variation curves for polar\equatorial (see my earlier post above) I found that date also exhibits another sudden polar warming (not cooling as said earlier–a mistake), and very clear. It is also a tectonic event with subsequent flood. So 6200, 3195, and 2345bce are repeats. None after that.

    Those changes stopped after 2200bce and a different trend (cooler) set in.

  77. oldmanK says:

    Correction (in both earlier posts): 6200, 4375, 2345. 3195 was a reverse action.

  78. Paul Vaughan says:

    The story begins with glorious hockey nostalgia.
    Then comes the sudden twist.

    “Canadians need to be worried”
    “need to be worried”

    ““Canadians need to be worried because, over the course of the coming century, the opportunities to skate outside will become fewer,” said Robert McLeman, a geography and environmental studies professor at WLU, and co-author of the study.”

    “McLeman called the shrinking skating season a good indicator of the effects of climate change on everyday Canadians’ lives.

    “Here’s an example of something that will actually hit you right in your backyard or in your neighbourhood park,” he said.”

  79. Paul Vaughan says:

    The sun’s pace controls multidecadal Atlantic Hurricanes (ACE).

  80. oldmanK says:

    The period 2000bce to 1700ce has a lower ave temp than the previous 5k years. After 1800 the temperature began an upward climb. Compare oranges with oranges.

    Follow the deuterium proxies for Gisp2 and Vostok here

    The last hundred years cannot be compared with the previous 4000. Go earlier.

  81. oldmanK says:

    The previous reply had the above link included ??????

    [mod: the link works but the screen display doesn’t show it, possibly because the filename has a colon [:] in it]

  82. Paul Vaughan says:

    “methane records (whether from north or south Polar regions) show square waveforms like Greenland, while carbon dioxide time series appear triangular, like Antarctica. The phase relationship between the triangular and square waveforms in the records analyzed is π/2 or very close to π/2 in all cases”

    “If the two polar climates have indeed been in synchrony at the millennial scale, they oscillate in unison, but out of phase, […] methane variations co-vary with Greenland temperature while carbon dioxide variations co-vary with Antarctica’s. […] sea-ice dependent square waveforms […] ocean-dependent triangular waveforms”

    Rial, J.A. (2012). Synchronization of polar climate variability over the last ice age: in search of simple rules at the heart of climate’s complexity. American Journal of Science 312, 417-448.

    Click to access 417.full.pdf

  83. oldmanK says:

    The link was “Holocene temp variations” on Wiki. It did not register in the post, in both , probably my machine??

    Gisp is 1100 years out of step. correlate all at the Y Dryas upshoot. Kilimanjaro is also deuterium and is revealing. The Dodwell 2345, 4375(a private tip I got) and 6200 for Doggerland are unmistakeable. Something is going on.

  84. Paul Vaughan says:

    On the sun the pulsing goes


    Upon transmission receipt, Earth pulses


    It’s real simple:


    There’s another mystery down.

    Like Bill Illis has sagely advised: IT’S JUST GEOMETRY.
    Set the physical apparatus up in a different pattern and lo and behold (!!) you get a different output pattern. Another big “Duh!!” moment for climate awareness as we stupid humans somehow manage to stumble our humiliating way through countless layers of stubborn ignorance.

    Maybe you didn’t before, but now you know.

    Image Credit: Bill Illis (key message: The GEOMETRY of the physical apparatus MATTERS — d’oh!!)

  85. oldbrew says:

    Germany’s absurdly overpriced and ineffective renewable energy disaster goes on and on.

    ‘In Germany, around €100 billion has already been burnt on renewable subsidies; currently the green energy levy costs €56 million every day. And, the level of subsidy for wind and solar sees Germans paying €20 billion a year for power that gets sold on the power exchange for around €2 billion.’

    Adding insult to injury: ‘German consumers are being forced to pay huge sums of money to wind park and solar plant operators who are ordered to stop feeding electricity into the grid, but yet get paid anyway!’

  86. oldbrew says:

    The claim of a new paper is that…
    ‘Scientists have discovered the causes behind a period of dramatic climate change at the end of the last Ice Age, which will help predict how climate will change in the future.’

    “It’s very interesting to see how the climate of the southern and the northern hemispheres ‘communicate’ with each other through the ocean and the atmosphere” – study author.

  87. manicbeancounter says:

    Something I am working on. For the following could you please assume that the forecast greenhouse gases emissions without policy will result in 4.5C of warming by 2100.
    In preparation for the COP21 climate talks in Paris this month countries have made INDC submissions. Having looked at about three dozen it is clear as far as policy goes they collectively do little or nothing to affect emissions. Yet the UNIPCC claims that added together these proposals will constrain warming to 2.7C, compared with about 4.5C under the IPCC’s RCP8.5 BAU (non-policy) scenario.
    ClimateInteractive claims that the INDCs will just reduce the rise to 3.5C.
    From their graph, 2100 emissions will be reduced from 140 GtCO2e BAU to about 80 for 3.5C warming, and 10 for 2C.

    The interesting question I have been grappling with is how to reconcile the huge difference between the INDC’s and the Climate Interactive’s interpretation.
    Having obtained the figures behind the BAU (which they claim are the RCP 8.5) I believe that the forecasts are wrong, or at least Climate Interactive’s version. The IPCC’s is by implication much more in error. Looking at fossil fuel emissions (75% of total GHG emissions) per capita my preliminary conclusions are.
    – In the OECD countries emissions are forecast to start increasing when then plateaued 30-40 years ago. If the OECD countries all said it would maintain emissions at 2010 levels (i.e. do nothing) global 2100 emissions would be cut by 15 GtCO2e.
    – In Russia and China emissions will plateau in the next 10 to 20 years. China says it will do this (i.e. it will do nothing to affect emissions trends) by 2030. In a corrected forecast 2100 emissions would be about 3 and 17 GtCO2e lower.
    – For India the current high levels of economic growth (6-8%) will crash, to around 4% this year and less than 2% by 2030. Emissions growth will similarly fail. India will never reach the emissions levels of OECD countries. A more realistic forecast would add 10-12 GtCO2e to 2100 emissions. India’s lack of policy is made into one of insignificant relevance.
    – Africa will have huge population growth, but current low levels of economic growth (maybe 3% pa) are forecast to fall. Assuming that Africa in 2100 will have just a quarter of the emissions per capita of the USA in 2010 would add 17 15 GtCO2e. A lack of policy in most of Africa is downplayed, yet according to the population forecasts, in 2100 Africans will comprise 39% of the global population, compared with 15% in 2010.
    The net impact in the global forecast is small, but the impact on policy reductions is huge. Errant forecasts mistakenly increase the emissions reductions by 35 GtCO2e in 2100, just over half of the claimed reduction due to policy. This is despite looking at just 75% of emissions for a small number of key countries. So rather than the press releases, UNFCCC should be getting independent auditors to examine and validate the figures.

  88. oldbrew says:

    Scottish road sign…

  89. oldbrew says:

    Largest November snowfall in 120 years at Chicago’s main airport.

    ‘This month is catapulted to the fourth snowiest November on record with more than a week remaining. The three snowiest Novembers were 1940 with 14.8 inches, 1895 with 14.5 inches and 1951 with 14.3 inches.’

  90. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Take Home Messages:
    3. The Earth’s Climate System is “a coupled non-linear chaotic system” – and while exactly what that coupling means one can or should expect from it is not yet well understood and remains unclear, we should look to Chaos Theory to provide the necessary insight we need to reach a better understanding.”

    chaos propaganda campaign at wuwt again today

    “we should look to Chaos Theory”

    If geophysical observations are trying to teach us something that gets classified into “Chaos Theory” it can ONLY be that THERE ARE AGGREGATE LIMITS ON TURBULENCE.

  91. Paul Vaughan says:

    What are we supposed to do with people like this??
    Creepy beyond expressibility.

    They don’t even mention the elephant in the room.

    It’s a lost cause folks. Everything’s so corrupt. What’s the point?

  92. Paul Vaughan says:

    On Jan. 2, 2015 I wrote:

    “Historically, the release of ERSSTv4 may well mark the end of worthwhile climate discussion.”

    I am very close to declaring this a final verdict.

  93. oldmanK says:

    Quote>>>“Historically, the release of ERSSTv4 may well mark the end of worthwhile climate discussion.”

    But the climate is still there, with whatever comes with it. And the “elephant in the room could very well be a giraffe”.

  94. tchannon says:

    What’s missing Will?

  95. Paul Vaughan says:

    Crazy assumptions…

    At wuwt FE suggests:

    “– The slope of the natural CO2 rate of change still is zero.”

    There’s NO sensible reason — none whatsoever — to assume natural CO2 rate of change would be zero.

    It doesn’t even make sense to suggest it would be. That’s a political exercise.

    Suspicion aroused…

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK (November 25, 2015 at 6:29 am) suggested:
    “elephant in the room could very well be a giraffe”.

    No. It’s clear cut black & white and suggesting otherwise unnecessarily draws attention to a commentator’s failure to successfully subtract one column of numbers from another.

    This is important. Treating it lightly isn’t advisable. Please give this the level of sobriety it deserves.

  97. oldmanK says:

    @ PV. Partly kidding, partly serious. I have already indicated my views on what the earth might go through. From the evidence I see it is very sobering.

  98. Paul Vaughan says:

    @ oldmanK

    The specific issue here is that NOAA has systematically vandalized the record of every El Nino & La Nina.

    Quite suspiciously, American climate blogs are silent about this.

  99. Paul Vaughan says:

    What victors will write climate history?

    Unfortunately I have to report that Joanne Nova, Ferdinand Engelbeen, & David Evans have not correctly interpreted the implications of the following combination of graphs for our understanding of natural jet stream & CO2 variations:
    (“Everything you thought you understood about solar proxies is being overturned…”)

    If defiance persists, we may learn what WWIII bias looks like after NOAA mangles it.

  100. oldbrew says:

    The doom mongers quiz – can you guess when the following proclamations were made?

  101. Paul Vaughan says:

    Multidecadal Sun-Climate Differintegral Asymmetry 101

    link to Rial’s differintegral primer

  102. Paul Vaughan says:

    Multidecadal Sun-Climate Differintegral Asymmetry 101

    link to Rial’s differintegral primer

  103. Paul Vaughan says:

    NATO has a purpose.
    The North Atlantic is most vulnerable.
    Will USA’s NOAA still exist to tweak WWIII bias for 2100 propaganda?

    The differintegral structure is the root of overturning not only on the sun and in Earth’s oceans but also of geopolitical structure such as with early nineteenth century (early 1800s) Spanish / Latin America.

    “Countries in Latin America by date of independence”

    Opportunistic terrestrial military powers are advised to be prepared to roll with nature’s waves.

  104. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sunspot integral global temporal attractor?
    Yes (of course), but PACE SHAPES evolution.
    The volatility of equator-pole waves on the pond isn’t uniformly paced and therefore it’s not uniformly spaced (on the geographically asymmetric background).
    Hence the differintegral spatiotemporal aberrations from the base sunspot integral attractor, which rock hardest with abrupt solar cycle length changes.

  105. tchannon says:

    Talkshop users I have made an experimental change to the Talkshop Suggestions facility which makes administration easier but is to the disadvantage of users. It now takes two clicks to get the Suggestions instead of one.

    Is this acceptable?
    Saying it isn’t is perfectly okay, see what I can do.

  106. oldbrew says:

    ‘As we approach the Paris climate conference with BBC going full swoon on end of the world doomsayings and delegates priming up to feed their faces with the best of French cheffery, croissants and brandy for breakfast and lashings of garlic flavoured dumplings, it might be useful to look at what is on the bottom of the plate – when nobody is looking.’

    The author isn’t impressed by what he finds…
    ‘You will find that it is CAGW people that avoid discussing the science – because they are embarrassed. It’s a jumble – and comes across as make believe. Those that do debate just refer to the models and the peer reviewed papers as if they are fact. Most of them are fiction – and are stacked on the wrong shelf of the bookshop.’

  107. suricat says:

    tchannon says: November 25, 2015 at 1:50 pm

    “What’s missing Will?”

    With all due respect TC, Will couldn’t say because the post (together with many others during my residency here) just ‘evaporated into the aether’ when I pushed the “Post Comment” button.

    I ‘save’ all my responses ‘before’ I post so the ‘response’ is ‘extant’, but the ‘post’ ISN’T! What’s the problem at your end???

    I’ll not ‘stay quiet’ for long, but ‘after the quiet’, I exit!


  108. tchannon says:

    So far as I am aware no wholesale or other dubious changes go on.

    There are 17 pages of your comments or mentioning your handle, 1629 items, starting 2010.

    The most common reason why comments by regulars seem to vanish is unexpected server behaviour, has happened to most of us. Click post comment as you always do and move on. Unfortunately the server came back after a slight delay with a refusal needing an answer.

  109. Paul Vaughan says:

    FE really struck out — big time — at wuwt.

    He actually succeeded in probably the exact opposite of his intentions as for the very first time my attention has focused on what proportion of decadal-centennial CO2 variations is natural.

    His assertion that a near-perfect correlation between SST & CO2 change is spurious calls his integrity & motives into shrewd question.

    I can certainly understand why Gail Combs expresses suspicion (e.g. in a recent candid comment she added at the bottom of the retired Suggestions-13 thread).

    The staple trick of the thought-policing regime is to hide circulatory uniformity assumptions at the base of “reasoning”. Even hardened opponents fail to notice it happening. The impact on collective logic is fatal.

    Talkshoppers may find the CO2-SST model outlined here provocative & stimulating:

    Elsewhere in the thread I noticed an insightful comment about north-south geographic differences. I have images forthcoming that will help shine further light on that. Wake-Up Call for those who are a little slow to clue in (and change course accordingly): The false uniformity assumption is the root of climate evil.

  110. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sleazy as ****.
    American anti-sun propaganda is ramping up again.

    Does an intrinsic source generate a shared low-frequency signature in Earth’s climate and rotation rate? (2015)

    “CMIP5-corrected NH temperature “

    Those models DON’T EVEN COME CLOSE to doing HYDROLOGY correctly.
    (sarc) …and yet they can be used to do physical corrections???? (/sarc)

    Flat out disgusting. Extremely offensive.

    Extreme American drive to exterminate public awareness of sun-climate relations is inexpressibly creepy. To be pushing so hard they must perceive it as an essential component of (misinformation) war.

  111. oldbrew says:

    Tony Brown: ‘Climate Reason – The Little Ice Age Thermometers
    A study of Climatic Variability from 1660-2009’

    Includes links to posts by the author and in other mainly well-known climate-related blogs.

  112. oldbrew says:

    ‘The American energy story Obama won’t tell the world’

    ‘According to data available from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions dropped 9 percent between 2005 and 2013 — the largest reduction from any country.

    So what has made these positive developments possible? The answer is America’s oil and natural gas renaissance, as well as our insatiable appetite to innovate. ‘

  113. Paul Vaughan says:

    This may ruffle insecure feathers but responsibility demands that it be said:

    How long does it take a competent individual (or even an incompetent one!!) to subtract one column of numbers from another in a spreadsheet??

    Maybe Bob Weber can let us know why he’s consulting Bob Tisdale about this rather than just taking 2 minutes to check firsthand:

    Folks, the way the community is handling this clear-cut ERSSTv4 “bias” issue is a flat out disaster.

    Tisdale should be advised to take full due care before responding, as his competence & integrity are going to be exposed in the clearest light possible. This is a black-&-white test of competence & integrity and it’s the perfect opportunity to expose distortion agency.

    A more perfect clean test to filter the good from the bad could not be designed by God in Heaven.

  114. oldbrew says:

    At least WUWT readers are seeing PV’s graphics. Let’s see what, if any, reaction there is.

  115. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s a fair, simple test that affords no weasel room.
    Only if their strategy’s deliberately Orwellian will they ignore well.

    Watering at the mouth as either way we’re assured a tasty meal. If we don’t get justice we get delectable insight into human nature…

  116. Paul Vaughan says:

    At an “azimuth project” discussion I noticed that Paul Pukite is again pretending he should get originator credit for recycling insights volunteered by Piers Corbyn years ago.

    On May 9, 2011 I found time to verify firsthand using NASA JPL Horizons online ephemerides what Piers Corbyn volunteered on Nov. 9, 2009 about terrestrial year aliasing of lunisolar cycles.

    On the Pareto Principle I outlined Chandler wobble & QBO component 1:

    • in October 2011 — see p.14:

    Click to access vaughn-sun-earth-moon-harmonies-beats-biases.pdf

    • again in December 2013 since it was clear people were slow to clue in to the simple insight effortlessly clarified by Corbyn — see p.5:

    Click to access Vaughan%20131220%20Sun-Climate%20101%20Solar-Terrestrial%20Primer%202.pdf

  117. Paul Vaughan says:

    Tisdale suggests: “We only need to examine the first two of NOAA’s assumptions.”

    …but look at the 4th:
    “the spatial pattern of biases follows the climatological difference of SST and NMAT”

    It’s well-known (including crystal clear maps) that it doesn’t.

  118. Bob Weber says:

    It’s your issue Paul, run with it. Diplomacy might help too. We’ll see. I don’t see anyone responding to you on this, I wonder why? It seems to me if you were really interested in providing a teachable moment on this issue, you’d do it constructively without the invective, the regular finger in the eye.

  119. Paul Vaughan says:

    Bob, diplomacy has no effect on the result when subtracting one column of numbers from another.

    It’s up to each individual to take independent firsthand responsibility and that’s easy in this case.

    Unfortunately commentators at wuwt & ce do a truly perfect job of making sure the discussion never goes near noaa’s core weakness.

    I’m here to learn about nature, including human nature. It will be very informative to see if you and others just walk away from this.

    Question for anyone who can answer:

    Why is David Evans falsely assuming spatial uniformity of wind fields? (It makes no sense.)

  120. oldbrew says:

    A synopsis of the Evans argument (dated 28 Nov. 2015) is here:

    Click to access synopsis-of-basic-climate-models.pdf

  121. Paul Vaughan says:

    “A synopsis of the Evans argument (dated 28 Nov. 2015) is here:

    I don’t see the implicit uniformity assumptions stated explicitly. Very unfortunately it looks like a fatally stubborn blind spot. At a bare minimum the narrative needs to be made consistent with Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) records.

    It’s not clear to me why people (mainstream or otherwise) are so quick to make untenable assumptions about the wind field, asymmetric land-ocean geometry, equator-pole gradients, & circulatory topology in general.

    All I can suspect is some kind of a massive (and unfortunately fatal) disconnect of awareness from cross-disciplinary observations.

    Anyone (mainstream or otherwise) trying to sensibly model climate is well-advised to not ignore EOP.

    I went out of my way to emphasize this to Evans last round (last year or whenever it was) and he appeared to be paying attention, but now it’s becoming crystal clear that he has persisted in ignorance of crucial advice based on EOP observations.

    Attentive readers may have noticed that I stopped volunteering strategic commentary on the JoNova blog when it started to become clear (a month or 2 ago) that they ignored crucial advice based on EOP observations.

    Is this just a massive cross-disciplinary misunderstanding? Dunno. All I know is that I cautioned them to keep their narrative consistent with the EOP record and they did not. I am very, very disappointed and my instinct is that they are beyond my reach which means it’s up to someone else to persuade them to acknowledge the implications of the EOP record.

    Writing notes like this strains diplomacy but responsibility takes precedence because integrity demands a narrative that (a) doesn’t ignore geography & fundamental geometry and (b) is therefore consistent with EOP observations.

  122. oldbrew says:

    UK electricity generation: we know the problem, but where’s the solution?

    ‘Britain’s energy policy: Betting on a miracle’

    H/T Bishop Hill

  123. linneamogren says:

    “But making statements physically impossible is not forgivable, not for those who call themselves physicists. The real blunder is this. Scientists claimed to understand how the atmosphere worked. Based on this understanding, they said that “disruptive,” “dangerous” global warming would soon be upon us. It didn’t happen. What went wrong?”

    Please use Suggestions 16 for new comments [link above] – mod

  124. Paul Vaughan said:
    November 30, 2015 at 8:41 pm

    I am backing you up on my blog post Paul.

  125. Sorry, oldbrew – I will go to 16 next time.

  126. oldbrew says:

    Reminder: we’re on Suggestions 16 now.


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