Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 8)

  1. Paul Vaughan says:

    NOAA’s vandalism of ERSSTv3b2 (good) to ERSSTv4 (corrupted) hinges on a single point.

    Visual catalog of the beautiful natural patterns being systematically defaced:

    — —

    1. Secular

    — —

    2. ENSO

    — —

    3. Centennial

    — —

    4. Multidecadal — (proven independent of centennial)

    __ __ __

  2. oldbrew says:

    ‘…the vast majority of Americans don’t rank global warming as the most serious issue facing the country.’

    ‘A YouGov poll of 18,000 people in 17 countries found only 9.2 percent of Americans rank global warming as their biggest concern. Only Saudi Arabians were less concerned about global warming at 5.7 percent.’

    See more at:

  3. Paul Vaughan says:

    Recommendation for honest, competent parties genuinely and seriously concerned with integrity: Independently understand simple #2 firsthand by subtracting one column of numbers from another.

    The formula’s written on the graph. It says: Put ICOADS SST2.5 in one column and HadNMAT2 in another. Subtract one from the other and compare with IPO. Notice that the “bias” “corrections” match a natural pattern (the IPO).

    Diagnosing and understanding the impact of the vandalism on the other patterns (1, 3, & 4) demands advanced awareness and skill, but #2 can be used as a simple black-&-white test of integrity.

    Observing who refuses to acknowledge #2 firsthand decisively maps out unbelievable (that’s the key word because it’s literally unbelievable) incompetence and/or sketchy/shady corruption in the climate discussion community. It’s a perfect test exactly because it’s evasion-proof dead-simple black-&-white.

    No one can look good claiming to be unable to subtract ICOADS SST2.5 from HadNMAT2 all by themselves. Anyone who tries to pretend they can’t do it is immediately suspected of lying and if someone really can’t do it, why (?!) would they want to draw attention to that very unflattering fact???

    Trust in the existence of fair judging is fatally razed either way. BOTH noaa & their American critics are absolutely conclusively guilty on this file.

    This is going to upset people, but with such outrageous, unchecked corruption in plain view I would say the time has come that it needs to be said: Every day I respect China more and America less.

    What do I really think is going on?
    The central US climate blogs are actively supporting the corruption at noaa by showcasing deliberately weak criticism. (Why? I don’t know…)

  4. tallbloke says:

    Paul, please repost this as a comment on the new thread including links to the datasets if possible.
    Thanks – TB

  5. A. Ames says:


    An example where energy flows uphill: heat is removed from a solution at room temperature, and added to a bluegreen flourescence.

    The experience is that a solution of a commercial dye is prepped, put in a vial,
    and illuminated with a well blocked laser beam. What is observed is a bright flourescence
    noticeably blue shifted from excitation. The dye is as I remember was a commercial rhodamine,
    the laser was an argon ion laser. The phenomenon is called an anti-stokes flourescence and can be quite startling, almost heretical, when seen for the first time.

    The theory is that a solution phonon causes a distortion in the shape of the dye, somewhat lifting
    the electronic manifold. In this state the dye absorbs a photon. Presuming that the new molecule
    has a higher enthalpy than the old one a second phonon is needed to knock the molecule back to
    its original configuration (with the excitation present) where the radiation takes place.
    The solution is actually cooled by the excitation through the flourescence radiation.

    The color temperature of the flourescence is in excess of 6000 oK. As far as I can see this phenomenon could not exist in pre quantum physics or classical thermodynamics.

  6. tallbloke says:

    Well above my pay grade to understand that I’m afraid. 🙂

  7. tchannon says:

    Quite so Roger. We know who could explain if they roll up.

    I came out of hospital yesterday, been a long saga where I was kept in both for isolation and observation. Crazy amount going on.

  8. oldbrew says:

    ‘Back to the Climate Panic Attacks’

    ‘Now that climate change is a beat, we are all getting beaten over the head with our daily dose of Ruination!’

  9. oldbrew says:

    Moon was produced by a head-on collision between Earth and a forming planet – say UCLA researchers.

    “We don’t see any difference between the Earth’s and the moon’s oxygen isotopes; they’re indistinguishable,” said Edward Young, lead author of the new study and a UCLA professor of geochemistry and cosmochemistry.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Blog it please

  11. oldbrew says:

    Andrew: we’ve been there before…

    ‘No evidence for or against gravitational waves’

  12. oldbrew says:

    ‘Deceleration of the Greenland ice sheet caused by 11,000-year-old events

    “Ice deposited during the last glacial period was dustier and contained more air bubbles. This made it softer and more deformable than present day ice, which is cleaner and harder,” says Colgan.

    This cleaner, harder ice started to form 11,000 years ago, and it is this ice that has since caused large parts of the ice sheet to slow down.’

    This may be evidence in favour of the dust theory of ice ages put forward by Ralph Ellis recently:

    Albedo regulation of Ice Ages, with no CO2 feedbacks

  13. Michele says:

    Removed :

    Quote :

    “….The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while.”

  14. oldbrew says:

    A climate scientist speaks: ‘It’s a bit complicated’ — featuring one of TB’s Twitter sparring partners.

    ‘Leading UK climate modeller Richard Betts talks uncertainty, the warming ‘hiatus’ and why he engages with sceptics’

  15. oldbrew says:

    Calling all armchair scientists: ESA releases Greenland satellite data
    February 7, 2016 – 06:25
    The European Space Agency launches website with access to satellite data, images, and animations of the Greenland ice sheet.

    ‘Purple indicates a gain in height, green and red indicates ice loss around the margins of the ice sheet’

    Lots of purple in the posted image 😐

  16. oldbrew says:

    ‘Gravitational waves, Einstein’s ripples in spacetime, spotted for first time’

    LIGO physicists had to rule out every alternative, including the possibility that the reading was a malicious hoax. “We spent about a month looking at the ways that somebody could spoof a signal,” Reitze says, before deciding it was impossible. For González, making the checks “was a heavy responsibility,” she says. “This was the first detection of gravitational waves, so there was no room for a mistake.”

  17. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew’s link on ESA’s release on the Greenland findings: quote ““This is the canary in the coalmine scenario. The Polar regions are the parts of the world that will be affected first [by climate change], and with the highest magnitude,” says Nilsson.”

    I would seriously question that scenario. Disastrous climate change may in fact be the canary; the changes to the polar regions as likely the cause. Archaeology and geology for example show a completely different scenario of the earth for pre and post 2000 bce.

  18. oldbrew says:

    Theories of Earth’s supposed internal dynamo not working out too well.

    ‘Consistency of Earth’s magnetic field history surprises scientists’

    ‘…these results mean that we may need to rethink our models for either core evolution or the geodynamo process’

  19. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew’s link:

    “Records of magnetic field reversals can be found in rocks that maintain the magnetic polarity of the era in which they formed. In order to establish evidence of a polarity shift, this kind of ancient magnetic, or “paleomagnetic,” data must be gathered from around the globe, ideally sampling every tectonic plate.”

    It is here assumed that the crust has been in the same position all along. What if its the crust that is moving, and the dynamo has been in the same place all along?

    Of the earth’s magnet Wiki says ” it is generated by a geodynamo (in Earth’s case, the motion of molten iron alloys in its outer core).” I am missing something here. The magnetic field of the rotor of a squirrel cage motor is generated by the currents in the rotor cage and independent of rotor position. But the rotor currents are dictated by the magnetic field external to the rotor; of the field windings.

    Is there a parallel here? An external magnetic field, one external to the earth?

  20. Paul Vaughan says:

    From the last article OB linked:

    “this idea would conflict strongly with the most-reasonable planetary cooling models”

    “conflict strongly with”


    [ :


    It must be confusing for the ethical ones trying to decide how to not get their funding axed …and so out of their mouths come sentences like that. Agile on their verbal feet? Not in this case.

  21. oldbrew says:

    No magnetism without electricity, except in bar magnets and the like.

    If they expect the source of the electricity to be some kind of built-in dynamo, is that realistic?
    Their own words seem to cast doubt on it.

    Then there’s Lenz’s law.

    Not to mention magnetic reversals.

  22. oldbrew says:

    Sea ice expansion bothering penguins.

    ‘150,000 penguins killed after colossal iceberg in Antarctica leaves colony landlocked.
    An iceberg the size of Rome has forced the penguins to trek 70 miles for food.’

  23. USteiner says:

    EU will make decision on British demands only AFTER the British people have voted FOR staying in the EU.

    Here is the original text of the “Deutsche Welle” first in German because of the importance

    EU-Parlamentspräsident Martin Schulz …wollte Cameron keine Zusage geben, dass alle Wünsche aus London bei künftigen Gesetzesvorhaben erfüllt werden: “Das EU-Parlament tut sein Möglichstes, um den Vorstellungen entgegenzukommen, aber wir können nichts garantieren.” Er könne lediglich zusagen, dass sich das Parlament umgehend mit der Änderung von EU-Gesetzen beschäftigen werde, sobald das Referendum in Großbritannien über den Verbleib des Königreichs in der EU abgehalten worden sei und die Kommission entsprechende Vorschläge mache.

    Rough translation: The EU parliamentary president Martin Schulz (a German guy) does not guarantee that Cameron will be granted his demands. First the British people have to vote in favour of staying in the EU, and then the EU parliament will be asked to decide on Cameron’s wishes, but only after the EU Commission has made respective proposals.

    How dumb do they think the British people are? First they must vote in favor, and then, perhaps, maybe, possibly, perchance there could be an initiative that maybe, perhaps, perchance results in the EU granting Britain a favour (which is denied for all other countries).

    The EU, famous for their back room deals, breaking all applicable laws whenever convenient, is now remembering that their is a (toothless) parliament, which can now be used to f*** the British!

    This is like raising that one finger of both hands towards you. I am surprised this has not resulted in an uproar in Britain, and this is not mentioned on talkshop.

    What do you need a Brexit movie for, when you have that kind of statements from top EU folks?

  24. tallbloke says:

    USteiner: Please repost your comment on the Brexit The Movie thread. Thanks TB

  25. oldbrew says:

    ‘New study is ‘a leap forward’ in our understanding of ice sheet behavior’
    February 17, 2016

    “Greenland has three major ice streams—Jakobshavn, Kangerlussuaq and Helheim—and in the early 2000s, they all madly accelerated at the same time,” Briner says. “So we had this doomsday scenario for a while, because if they continued to accelerate, their discharges into the ocean would be huge.

    “Then, several years later, they slowed down again,” Briner says. “There is still a lot we don’t know about how these ice streams behave, and understanding their behavior is crucial for accurate modeling of future ice sheet decline.”

    Read more at:

    “Then, several years later, they slowed down again” – was that headline news? 😉

    ‘future ice sheet decline’ – spot the assumption.

  26. USteiner says:

    TB: as you wish.

    However, I think this is a monster that deserves a thread of its own. It is ridiculing Cameron, and everyone else in Britain. This is ammunition for anyone in favor of Brexit.

  27. oldbrew says:

    ‘UN climate chief to quit’

    Steve Milloy comments: ‘Getting out before it all falls apart.’

  28. oldbrew says:

    ‘The Delingpole Conjectures’ – a review of some of Delingpole’s choice climate comments.

  29. oldbrew says:

    Spanner in the works for latest big science claim…

    Did a gamma ray burst accompany LIGO’s gravity wave detection?

    One critic of the original announcement says:
    ‘After deciding what the evidence might look like, they should be required to show that the evidence they have found is coming from the source they claim. That have utterly failed to do that. There is zero evidence this came from a collision of black holes, and they don’t even try to point to the black hole that was allegedly formed by the collision. In addition, they should be required to show that the evidence found isn’t coming from any other more likely sources. Again, they have utterly failed to do that.’

  30. oldbrew says:

    Recent radio interview with Dick Lindzen…

    ‘Catastrophe “was the narrative from the beginning” says Lindzen’

  31. oldbrew says:

    ‘Search narrows for Planet Nine’. But…

    ‘Astronomers expect it would take years to find Planet Nine, if it exists at all.’

  32. oldbrew says:

    NTZ: ‘a list of 48 scientific papers published this year alone showing that CO2 climate science is not what the press and activist scientists like to have us believe it is.’

  33. Michele says:

    AURORA SURPRISE: There was no geomagnetic storm last night, but sometimes geomagnetic storms are not required for bright auroras.

    22-02-16 Full moon ; Solar flux 87.5

  34. USteiner says:

    The Daily Caller has the US-candidates stand on “Global Warming”

    My take:
    Sanders……………….Ultra Alarmist
    Rubio………………….Somewhat skeptic
    Cruz……………………Very skeptic

  35. oldbrew says:

    What did NASA astronauts hear – the real ‘Dark Side of the Moon’?

    ‘NASA releases strange ‘music’ heard by 1969 astronauts’

    ‘Michael Collins, the pilot of Apollo 11, who became the first person to fly around the far side of the Moon by himself while Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong were walking on the surface, said he too heard “an eerie woo-woo sound” but accepted the explanation of radio interference.’

    The video commentator is something else.

  36. Why are so many people ignoring the obvious connection between the Level of solar activity and the Earth’s climate?

  37. tallbloke says:

    Reblogging now 🙂

  38. oldbrew says:

    ‘Scientists find clues to the mystery of what causes lightning’

    “Theorists have been trying to simulate these conditions in computer experiments, and the most plausible results have suggested that the sparks are initiated with relativistic electron avalanches, which is a type of negative breakdown. Our results clearly show that the initiation is with a positive breakdown, not a negative breakdown.”

    ‘The results could help scientists better understand how a cloud can generate a current that is powerful enough to cause lightning. Currently, the largest electric fields that have been measured inside thunderstorms are several times weaker than what is needed to break down cloudy air and initiate lightning.’

    Electricity can be a tricky customer.

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    The ignorance about lightning is astounding.

  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    It has been a long wait…
    Awareness that wind moves water:
    The Great Arctic Ice Exchange (13 Hours Ago by Ron Clutz)
    …welcome progress

  41. oldbrew says:

    EU pledge looks like being as hollow as the Channel Tunnel – only a few weeks after the Paris binge, er…summit.

    ‘EU set to emit 2bn tonnes more CO2 than Paris climate pledge’

  42. p.g.sharrow says:

    To learn more about the EU drive to subjugate Briton you might read this”
    The Oligarchs of Europe are using Brussels and British politicians to accomplish the feat that Hitler was unable to accomplish in 1941…pg

  43. Sphene says:

    Ocean surface waves can combine to form deep ocean acoustic waves?

    “Surprisingly, he calculated that if two surface waves flow toward each other at roughly the same frequency and amplitude, as they meet and roll through each other the majority of their energy—up to 95 percent—can be turned into a sound wave, or acoustic-gravity wave.  …Kadri says the results may help scientists connect interactions between not only surface and deep ocean waters, but also with the atmospheric forces that affect surface waves.”

  44. oldbrew says:

    Another ‘pause-busting’ attempt looks like it’s biting the dust. All getting more desperate.

  45. Paul Vaughan says:

    From OB’s Sphene’s [mod] quote:
    “Kadri says the results may help scientists connect interactions between not only surface and deep ocean waters, but also with the atmospheric forces that affect surface waves.”

    Wind is driven by gradients. That drives the surface waves. (We can keep repeating this. Maybe someday ignorance will stop …maybe not.)

  46. oldbrew says:

    ‘Monster volcano gave Mars extreme makeover: study’

    ‘A volcano on Mars half the size of France spewed so much lava 3.5 billion years ago that the weight displaced the Red Planet’s outer layers, according to a study released Wednesday.
    Mars’ original north and south poles, in other words, are no longer where they once were.’

    How long before we get a study disputing this one?

  47. oldbrew says:

    When is apparent warming not really warming? When the satellite drifts off course and/or when faulty data adjustments are made, as Dr Roy Spencer explains.

  48. oldbrew says:

    Study: Great Barrier Reef Corals Creating Their Own Calcifying Fluid pH

    Georgiou et al. collectively concluded that “this newly discovered phenomenon of pH homeostasis during calcification indicates that coral living in highly dynamic environments exert strong physiological controls on the carbonate chemistry of their calcifying fluid, implying a high degree of resilience to ocean acidification within the investigated ranges.”

  49. oldbrew says:

    Why Hurricane Irene fizzled as it neared New Jersey in 2011

    ‘A dynamic process that cools the coastal ocean and can weaken hurricanes was discovered as Hurricane Irene made landfall in New Jersey, according to a Rutgers University-led study published today.’

    [Researchers] ‘found that Irene’s winds mixed the coastal ocean’s warm surface layer and cold bottom layer, causing rapid cooling ahead of Irene’s eye.’

    “Satellite imagery from before and after the storm revealed that the ocean surface cooled up to 11 degrees Celsius, or 20 degrees Fahrenheit,” said Oscar Schofield, a Rutgers professor and study co-author.

  50. Paul Vaughan says:

    Now that gives me a brand new idea….
    Thanks OB. Another missing link just connected…
    You have a knack for pointing to stuff that triggers leaps in understanding. Appreciated.

  51. oldbrew says:

    L.A. officials seeded clouds during El Nino storm in hopes of more rain.

    Los Angeles County has used cloud seeding to boost water supplies since the 1950s.
    The county estimates that seeded clouds produce about 15% more rainfall.

  52. oldbrew says:

    ‘Close comet flyby threw Mars’ magnetic field into chaos’

    “With MAVEN, we’re trying to understand how the sun and solar wind interact with Mars,” said Bruce Jakosky, MAVEN’s principal investigator

    Some dramatic effects there by the sound of it: ‘Mars was flooded with an invisible tide of charged particles from the coma’

  53. oldbrew says:

    Why You Don’t Adjust Data

    ‘When climate scientists start making adjustments, confirmation bias sets in. They look for problems which cause mismatches vs. their theory, and ignore problems which would work against their theory if corrected.’

  54. oldbrew says:

    NYT: ‘Mars Mission Set to Launch to Study Gases and Storms’

    ‘Methane is the most intriguing trace gas. Sunlight and chemical reactions break up methane molecules in the atmosphere. Any methane there must have been created recently, and the two possibilities for creating methane are microbes and a geological process requiring heat and liquid water.’

    So methane could be created by ‘a geological process requiring heat and liquid water’? If so, gas is not (necessarily) a fossil fuel.

  55. oldbrew says:

    Yellowstone’s Supervolcano Gets a Lid

    ‘The giant volcano lurking under the state of Wyoming might not have originated from a rising plume of hot rock, as previously thought’

  56. oldbrew says:

    Climate scientist Daniel Alongi has been indicted by the Australian government on charges of defrauding taxpayers out of $556,000 in false expenses since 2008.

  57. oldbrew says:

    Self-organizing fairy circles found in Australian outback.

    ‘Prior to this new discovery, fairy circles have only ever been seen in Namibia, Africa, where they have elicited explanations for their existence from various people for hundreds, if not thousands of years. More recently, scientists have been split between two explanations—that termites are responsible for their formation or that they are self forming due to the way grasses pull moisture from the soil.’

    Looks like the termite theory wouldn’t be an option in that part of Oz.

    Paper: Stephan Getzin et al. Discovery of fairy circles in Australia supports self-organization theory, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2016).

    Quote: The remarkable match between the patterns of Australian and Namibian fairy circles and model results indicate that both patterns emerge from a non-uniform stationary instability, supporting a central universality principle of pattern-formation theory. [bold added]

    Namibian fairy circles

  58. Ed says:

    Paul V,
    This is for you. Article in ZH indicates a clear trend showing food prices increase with global cooling.
    If you really believe cooling is ahead it is time to work out and place your trades and hedges.

  59. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ed, I have made predictions of neither cooling nor warming.
    Worming however, yes we’ll see lots of that.

    I stick to observations. Exploration is fascinating. Forecasting, not so much. I don’t see the appeal.

    So far as I can tell nobody understood Tomas Milanovic’s main point. It’s pretty ridiculous, but I can’t do anything about it so I might as well do more hiking & sea-kayaking and waste less time trying to communicate with people who aren’t sufficiently serious about understanding sun-climate relations how they actually exist (i.e. as they’re observed) rather than according to someone’s (proven-false) theory about how they ought to operate.

    There’s chaos yes, but the chaos is boxed (by limits). The fact that it’s hard to predict the chaos in the box does NOT mean the LIMITING box does not exist.

    That’s my beef with people on this file and I assure you I’m quite p*ssed off with a lot of the completely incorrect arguments and unfair treatment I’ve received while generously attempting to reason with people.

    People have an awfully hard time accepting that SPATIOTEMPORAL chaos is NOT temporal chaos. They differ FUNDAMENTALLY. But I know well from experience trying to reason with these people that ONLY God in heaven could — with a series of precise lightning strikes — correct their mischief.

    There’s no end to the climate discussion trouble they’ve created by ENFORCING FALSE spatiotemporal assumptions on a pliable, timid audience that’s all-too-easily willing to bend for perceived political benefits of the LOGICAL mischief.

    I think on some level people know it’s logical mischief but they have themselves convinced of the need for some kind of optics that appeal to administraitors. It’s administrative corruption and it’s an administratively corrupted notion of “science” (in quotes because it’s absolutely NOT science when people (e.g. at wuwt) COERCIVELY INSIST it be based on STRICTLY FALSE geometric & spatiotemporal assumptions!!!!)

    Until God starts throwing corrective lightning bolts at the darkly mischievous agents, we’ll be waiting…

    Best Regards

  60. craigm350 says:

    A bright meteor has been sighted in the early hours above Britain.
    Witnesses have described the object as a green flash moving south to north for a few seconds, leaving a magnesium-white trail.

    Sightings have been reported in locations including London, Hampshire, Stafford and on the east coast of England at about at 03:16 GMT.

    Its colour has prompted people on Twitter to describe it as the St Patrick’s Day meteor.

  61. oldbrew says:

    Tasmania’s Energy Scandal

    ‘Tasmania has provided yet another example of what happens when you let the lunatics run the asylum for too long. This time, it has run out of electricity to the point of needing 200 temporary diesel generators – at a start up cost of $44 million, plus operating costs of $22 million per month.’

  62. craigm350 says:

    Not one, but two, possibly related comets will make exceptionally close flybys of Earth on March 21–22. Here’s what we know and a guide on how to see them. –

    You’d have to go back to 246 years to find a comet that passed closer to Earth than Comet PanSTARRS (P/2016 BA14) will on March 22nd. Predicted to come within about nine lunar distances (2.1 million miles or 3.4 million kilometers) of Earth around 16:00 UT on that day, P/2016 BA14 will soon claim the distinction of second closest comet ever recorded.

    Lexell’s Comet has them all beat. It missed Earth by 1.4 million miles (2.2 million kilometers) on July 1, 1770. Although discovered in June that year by the comet ferret himself, Charles Messier, it became popularly known as Lexell’s Comet after astronomer and mathematician Anders Johan Lexell computed its orbit. As the comet sprinted across the sky in late June and early July, Messier described the coma as more than four times the size of the full Moon and as bright as magnitude +2. Wow!

    We’ll see plenty of action from P/2016 BA14 as it speeds from Canis Major to Ursa Major in the span of just 7 nights, but you’ll need a telescope to spot it. When first discovered on January 21st of this year by the PanSTARRS 1 telescope, it was given an asteroid designation, 2016 BA14. Soon after, Russian astronomer Denis Denisenko noticed that it’s orbit was remarkably similar to comet 252P/LINEAR, discovered in 2000 and on course for a similar close approach to Earth this month.

    Could they be related? Astronomers Michael Kelley and Matthew Knight wanted to find out, so they observed 2016 BA14 with Lowell Observatory’s Discovery Channel Telescope in February. Sure enough, their photos revealed a tail. Two comets on nearly identical orbits with nearly the same period of 5.32 (252P) and 5.25 years (BA14) imply a common origin. The most likely scenario? A chunk of 252P/LINEAR spalled off to become P/2016 BA14. The “P” designation stands for periodic and indicates that both comets make repeat orbits around the sun.

  63. oldbrew says:

    Thanks Craig.

    Will the “twin comets” produce meteors? Probably not, but, according to some astronomers, there is a slight possibility of seeing a few meteors related to Comet P/2016 BA14 around March 20, 2016.

    Meanwhile, its “twin comet” 252P LÍNEAR might produce a few meteors sometime between March 28-30.

    So heads up around those dates, just in case.

  64. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, the Tasmania Energy Scandal appears to deserve feature. That’s pretty damning.


    “Math problem a 300-year saga of death, duels, dual identities”

    “The professor was awarded the coveted $1.2-million Abel Prize in math this week, for cracking a problem called “Fermat’s Last Theorem” in 1994. The theorem was considered one of the longest-running unsolved problems in the mathematical field, based on the addition and multiplication of numbers.

    […] the theorem traces its roots back to Pythagoras […]

    “The problem is not that hard to understand […] Answering it took 300 years, but the question itself is not that hard.”

    […] Fermat proposed the theorem in 1637 but never managed to prove it. The seemingly simple problem became an obsession for several mathematicians […]

    “He knew that he was going to die, so the night before his duel, he wrote down all of his mathematics, and that manuscript is part of the folklore of modern mathematics” […] Galois was indeed killed the next day, at the age of 20, in a duel over a woman he loved […] she had to publish her work under the name “Monsieur LeBlanc,” because women were not permitted to go to university at the time […]

    Certain numbers, when squared (i.e. multiplied by themselves) will add up to another squared number. […] “You’ll never find a cubed number plus a cubed number, equalling another cubed number […] It’s a kind of problem that looks simple when you look at it to start with, but when you really want to prove it for infinity, it’s a major, major challenge.”

  65. oldbrew says:

    Linnea: if they can get more planetary data e.g. rotation periods, things could get interesting.

  66. Paul Vaughan says:

    Bill Illis wrote:

    “[…] look at the Out-going Long-wave Radiation map which gives you an indication where it was more cloudy [Blues and Reds] (and hence more precipitation) versus less cloudy [Brown and Yellows] (and hence less precipitation).”

    “The big Red Spot in the middle of the Pacific is really what makes the Earth warmer in an El Nino. All these thunderstorm clouds hold the extra heat from the central Pacific in. The heat from the El Nino does not get to escape to space, the clouds hold the heat in. It takes time for these thunderstorms to develop and then time for the general atmospheric circulation patterns to spread the extra heat around to the warmer than normal areas in the rest of the planet. This is actually the reason for the 3 month lag as well. The El Nino peaked in mid-November but the temperature impact did not peak until mid-February.”

    “[…] the Big Red Spot, at lower than normal OLR of 50 W/m2 is an astounding difference from normal (especially over 90 days). Nowhere else on the planet has numbers anything like this. […] -50 W/m2 over such a big area is a big deal. This is how an El Nino impacts the weather.”

  67. oldbrew says:

    ‘Contrasting fast precipitation responses [FPR] to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone forcing’

    ‘…the results highlight the opposing roles of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the FPR, the efficacy of stratospheric ozone in causing an FPR, and show that the overall impact of ozone change on global precipitation response may be substantial.’

  68. Brett Keane says:

    Ren and Erl et all: with Antarctica temps at -63 yesterday, what is your take on this re ozone?b

  69. Brett Keane says:

    @Linnea: good to see you back. Any conclusions from Pluto etc.discussions?

  70. oldbrew says:

    ‘A Swedish town has refused to turn its street lights off for just an hour amid fears that women will fall victim to sex attacks.’

  71. oldmanK says:

    Re ‘Fairy circles’. Familiar but could not place similar experience — then >>salt pens and on my windscreen after a light drizzle. After rain in normally arid areas the last wet areas is where the dissolved salts start to precipitate, forming a ring but whole circle is to salty to support life.

  72. oldbrew says:

    21 Kids Take on the Feds and Big Oil in Historic Climate Lawsuit

    Editor’s note: Twenty-one youth plaintiffs, as well as climate scientist Dr. James Hansen as guardian for future generations, is [sic] suing the federal government to cease conduct that promotes fossil fuel extraction and consumption, and instead develop and implement an actual science-based climate recovery plan.

    No date has been set for a court ruling.

  73. oldmanK says:

    On oldbrew’s “Tasmanian energy scandal”. That link has a lesson many should heed.

    Forty years ago ‘security of supply’ meant mixed generating plant and even stocking alternative fuels. The older generation grew up developing those plants and understood the problems involved in securing power supply (although we had our share of monkeys-in-the-works). The modern guys in following generations do not understand that. They want clean and easy access to power, no dirty hands and no ugly stacks, a “new modern science”, that of outsourcing. But to the modern public it is to quote the site {{As Richard Feyman so cleverly put it, “Science is the belief in the ignorance of the (modern) experts.”{{

  74. oldbrew says:

    Tim Cullen reports:

    ‘Firstly, the North-South alignment of the stone circle near Kaapschehoop in South Africa [discovered by Johan Heine in 2003] is misaligned by 3° 17′ 42”.’

  75. Paul Vaughan says:

    Bill Illis wrote (March 21, 2016):


    The Pacific is definitely rapidly transitioning to a La Nina state.

    All this blue colder than normal water in the undercurrent is going to surface soon and become the La Nina.

    This Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly chart shows that the average ocean temperature down to 300M from 180W to 100W has already transitioned into below average territory.

    Traditionally, this value leads the Nino 3.4 index by about 1 month on a very consistent basis.


  76. Paul Vaughan says:

    I never pointed it out explicitly. I hope it was obvious…

    The circumference of the circle is ___ . (fill-in-the-blank anyone?…)

  77. Paul Vaughan says:

    Trump says
    • no anthro-warming
    • nukes = perilous threat

    Sounds sensible, BUT:

    Ask him if the sun runs climate before we decide whether we can trust him to manage nuke threats.

    can’t wait to hear his answer…

    (In 2008 the balance tipped…. (to be continued….)….)

  78. oldbrew says:

    PV: circumference of circle = pi i.e.2pi × r where r = 0.5

  79. Paul Vaughan says:

    circumference = C = πd where d = diameter = 1
    a pair of conway triangles gives Φ, 1, φ, √5, & π

    I should have labeled π on the image in orange.
    Orange π — reminds me of the sun…

    how do you like that?
    π symbolizing the Sun

    orange π in the sky
    look up and see φ…

  80. Paul Vaughan says:

    In its preoccupation with naive political notions, the American climate skeptic movement has degenerated into sharp optical divorce from reality.

    “[…] a few large hurricanes hitting cities […] of course attributed to CO2 (whether scientists’ analysis eventually concurs is politically irrelevant). […] Effects of skeptics’ defeat after bouts of extreme weather […]

    […] The insults and demonization from their foes that they experience today are like Spring rains compared to the thunderstorms of massive public blame and condemnation.

    The damage might extend to conservatives and the Republican Party. That possibility is worth avoiding.

    Who is right about the public policy response to climate change? […] It’s an irrelevant question […]” [bold added]

    Right now US right-wingers are divided and the division is heated.
    One side of the division is concerned with reality and as you can see from the quote above the OTHER SIDE is VISIBLY more concerned with optics than with reality.

    Sensible members of the International Community: We need a plan B because of how things are falling apart in the USA. They’re weakening and their weakest branches are preoccupied with worship of OPTICS at a STEEP cost: naive ignorance of reality.

    Spin-oriented American activists: Naivety and leadership don’t go together. Your nation is in a leadership role. The rest of us canNOT afford to have you ignoring reality. We depend on you for global security. Please get your eyes back on the REAL ball.

    Sensible Americans: Please step up now and take the reigns from those delusionally preoccupied with optics while REAL threats are on trigger-point.

    Good fun.
    [ :

    What a joke also: That guy thinks testing models is going to solve something. We ALREADY know the models are crap. You’re proposing focus on crap?? Kummer is certainly taking the k out of skeptic…

  81. Paul Vaughan says:

    Where would you even find a FAIR JUDGE to test the models????? (Impossible!!!!!!)

  82. oldbrew says:

    PV says: ‘how do you like that?
    π symbolizing the Sun’

    Well – we do like that 🙂

  83. Paul Vaughan says:

    “The recent El Nino phenomenon has aggravated the region’s water shortage problem, which can be solved only with the cooperation of all stakeholders. The 4,880-kilometer-long river runs through Yunnan province before snaking through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.”

    “The current dry season has led to drought in parts of Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, where many people depend on agriculture and fishing. For instance, Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region is facing severe drought, which has harmed rice and fruit productions.”

    “HO CHI MINH CITY – Parts of Mekong Delta in Vietnam have been experiencing the most serious drought and saltwater encroachment in the past nearly 100 years”

    “The drought and saltwater encroachment have damaged many rice fields, causing losses worth some 1,000 billion Vietnamese dong ($44.4 million), said Vietnamese Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Cao Duc Phat.”

    “The Mekong River, known as Lancang in China, rises in China’s Danggula Mountains and drains through five other countries.”

    “BEIJING — China said the new Lancang-Mekong cooperation mechanism will help development of the five countries in the sub-region and narrow the development gap in Southeast Asia.”

  84. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Statistics showed that China’s sea level drops during El Nino weather patterns. The sea level in 2015 was down by 21 millimeters from 2014 due to a strong El Nino that affected the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

  85. oldbrew says:

    PV’s link: ‘China has seen its air and seawater temperatures increase due to climate change, along with lower air pressure in coastal regions, resulting in rising sea levels, according to the report.’

    If ‘Statistics showed that China’s sea level drops during El Nino weather patterns’, would that be related to higher air pressure?

  86. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, surface wind, & sea surface height are all coupled.

    It’s just a spatiotemporal thing. It’s like some bubbles bouncing around in some turbulence to put it extremely loosely.

    It’s comical the way people preoccupied with politics obsess over the nothingness of ENSO. All it represents is bounces around the core.

    It’s the core that matters.

    I think gamblers, investors, and political operatives can’t help obsess over the short term opportunities created each time public imagination foolishly runs away along extrapolated El Nino & La Nina trajectories.

    It’s actually hilarious. But in reality it does fool people, so there actually is political mileage in it. In this case there’s political opportunity to bond the 6 Mekong nations. Locally here in Vancouver the sea level is way up with this El Nino (opposite to China’s coastline — the water’s over here on our side, moved from there to here by the El Nino). Recently I witnessed what might be the highest local tide I can remember where I sea-kayak.

    It’s El Nino, but just like when we hosted the 2010 Olympics and all the snow melted and they had to helicopter and truck in snow from a higher mountain range, public opinion about anthro-warming runs away with bounces of the shiny thing.

    Human nature is what it is and it looks hard-wired to IGNORE the central limit and get yanked like a yo-yo by the bounces of the shiny ENSO thing. I am COMPLETELY disinterested in ENSO and the moon now. That’s just the bouncing stuff. It’s not what really matters long run.

    I suppose from a military perspective they do have to worry about the extremes of the bounces because of the opportunities they create, but capable nations would be wiser to focus on STABILITY. Just ride out those bounces and bet on the multidecadal-centennial central limit. I think China, USA, & maybe Europe are regions of the world that can play this strategy. Maybe there’s too much volatility and corruption in other regions to play the long run average? I’ll just raise that question and leave it hanging.

    One concern I have is that Chinese agencies are buying into the global warming BS. Pollution reduction they for sure have a problem with and maybe they feel they have to leverage broader framing to deal narratively with domestic crap, but I have to say I’m disappointed because if they aren’t going to be the sensible party on natural multidecadal-centennial climate variations then who is? No one. Not sure what to do about this yet, but they’re way-smarter-than-average people, so it’s probably unwise to give up on them just because they’re struggling to deal with a difficult domestic issue like thick air pollution. But if China sticks with anthro-warming belief, sun-climate truth probably won’t get recognized for generations. Chinese people are exceptionally intelligent and Chinese culture is profoundly wise, but certainly there are aspects of Chinese governance that cause me to look away and not know what to do (just like for USA)….

    Perhaps ENSO is a good way of understanding natural east-west coupling.

    So then can we look maybe to some trans-national class to be the champion of climate truth rather than tightly-coupled nation-states? In which classification schemes do we find substantial &/or powerful subsets respecting sun-climate reality? Is there one gender that is more realistic about nature than the other? Is there one global community like a sporting community or an arts community or a religious group that has a healthy respect for nature? etc. Are any of these groups powerful?

    I have faith in the Chinese people and the Chinese culture, but following the round of reading-up I’ve been doing, I have my doubts about the Chinese nation, just as I have about the US nation. If 2 such powerful nations together in their strong coupling decide the anthro-warming narrative must dominate to serve some common interest, then there’s little chance sun-climate truth will be allowed to prevail in the mainstream during foreseeable generations.

    Once again I feel I’ve lost a strip of naivety, so that reassures me that nature exploration (which includes exploration of human nature) remains on-course.

    Might as well leap one more level. It’s probably foolish to expect any nation-state, religion, gender, class, political party, or whatever to pave a road (or roll out a red carpet) towards more sensible respect for nature including natural climate and sun-climate nature in particular. So then where to look? To the divine? To the off-earth? To the paranormal? To alternate dimensions? At least it’s entertaining to ponder transcendence into unknown territory. One place I assure you is ruled out: California.

    Good fun…

  87. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s the SLP-Wind-SSH-SST coupling visualization video OB:

    Visualizing El Nino From NASA Scientific Visualization Studio

  88. Paul Vaughan says:

    What that video doesn’t show is rain. Like it’s been relentlessly raining here for months. That’s a lot of water getting tossed out of the tropics because heat couldn’t escape to space from there during the El Nino.

    Watching the video, keep in mind that the wind isn’t really blowing from west-to-east. Those vectors are wind anomalies, so the better way to interpret that is way-less wind from east-to-west than-usual.

    More generally be careful about anomalies (from average) versus absolutes. For example recently I saw someone (comically!) suggesting the warm pool is now a cold pool. Well no (crazy suggestion!)

    The warm pool is still the warm pool. The blue that prompted that silly comment was a mapping of anomalies (from normal). The warm pool still has the warmest water on Earth. It’s just less warm than normal. To find a truly “cold pool” (in the absolute rather than anomaly sense) you would look not at the equator but rather deep in the ocean (actually you don’t need to look too deep because only the surface is warm) or towards the poles at the surface.

    Similarly the red blobs in the vertical cross sections aren’t hot water (lol!) People comment about how “warm” water is surfacing. They mean relatively warm. The deep water is cold. When it’s a little less cold than usual it gets colored red on anomaly representations, but it’s still cold. So you’ve got cold water being represented on visuals in red, which looks hot.

    My guess is that when anomaly representations are shown to the general public they are misinterpreted probably something like 97% of the time.

  89. Paul Vaughan says:

    Looking ahead to the La Nina:

    Once the easterlies are back in action all that (relatively) warm water will hit the continental shelf in the west and where can it go?

    Some of it can go south at the surface.
    Some of it can go north at the surface.
    Some of it can be submerged (flat thermocline of El Nino becomes tilted thermocline of La Nina).

    Remember the 96 year cycle?

    That’s just an asymmetry cycle in the odds of going north or south. (The equator doesn’t move!)

    (I know people didn’t understand that. No one in the climate discussion understands volatility and that’s a deal-breaking communication obstacle so effectively all of these agents are working against recognition of simple exploratory insight.)

  90. oldbrew says:

    The Talkshop passed 4 million visits sometime today 🙂

    Thanks for your – hopefully continuing – interest, folks.

    PV: very informative video – thanks. I had wondered why the ‘heat’ built up near Peru and the video explained that, among other things.

  91. oldbrew says:

    The North Atlantic Ocean and climate change in the UK and northern Europe
    Neil C. Wells
    Article first published online: 8 JAN 2016 [open access]

    This article considers the changes in the North Atlantic Ocean since the commencement of the RAPID array in 2004, which measures the Meridional Overturning Circulation. Emphasis is placed on the heat and freshwater transports associated with this circulation and its influence on the climate of the UK.

    ‘In 2009 it was observed that the MOC at 26°N (Figure 3) reduced by 30% from its mean transport over a year and the northward heat transport was reduced by a similar amount.’

    ‘The reasons for this large change in the MOC in 2009 are not fully understood, and they have not yet been seen in any of the IPCC climate models.’

    ‘The atmosphere in 2009–2010 also showed some interesting behaviour. For example, Buchan et al. (2014) have shown that there were exceptional cold winters in northern Europe associated with extremely low values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The coincidence of the low NAO with the reduction in the MOC is remarkable. The causal links between the atmosphere and ocean in this period are still being discussed. Some evidence suggests the atmosphere is driving this event (Roberts et al., 2013) whilst others suggest the signals for this event may come from the ocean (Bryden et al., 2014).’ [bold added]

  92. oldbrew says:

    Study of Saharan dust variations

    ‘After assimilation and analysis of the data, they found patterns emerging—from the 1910s to the 1940s, for example, there was a period of elevated dustiness, and another during 70s to the 80s. In contrast, there were periods of less dustiness during the 1860s, the 1950s and in the 2000s. They also noted that different weather phenomenon could impact Saharan dust levels, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and West African Monsoons.’

  93. oldbrew says:

    Patchy’s overheating imagination…


    The charge sheet runs to over 1400 pages.

  94. oldbrew says:

    Study: Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle

    Time series of sea-level rise are fitted by a sinusoid of period ~ 60 years, confirming the cycle reported for the global mean temperature of the earth. This cycle appears in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The last maximum of the sinusoid coincides with the temperature plateau observed since the end of the 20th century. The onset of declining phase of AMO, the recent excess of the global sea ice area anomaly and the negative slope of global mean temperature measured by satellite from 2002 to 2015, all these indicators sign for the onset of the declining phase of the 60-year cycle. Once this cycle is subtracted from observations, the transient climate response is revised downwards consistent with latest observations, with latest evaluations based on atmospheric infrared absorption and with a general tendency of published climate sensitivity. The enhancement of the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal oscillations which is found up to 71% faster than the atmospheric CO2 increase, focus on earth greening and benefit for crops yields of the supplementary photosynthesis, further minimizing the consequences of the tiny anthropogenic contribution to warming.’

  95. oldbrew says:

    J Martin – the paper says:

    ‘The correlation between the diminishing magnetic dipole strength and the increase in global averaged CO2 was −0.997. Such strengths in most sciences would be considered causal or indicate that the same “source of variance” is being measured.’

    ‘ln most sciences’ – bit of a dig there 😉

    The authors reference this study, or essay:
    ‘The possible role of dynamic pressure from the interplanetary magnetic field on global warming’
    Michael A. Persinger

    ‘The results support the hypothesis of El-Borie and Al-Thoyaib that geomagnetic activity can partially predict global mean temperatures.’

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    Honest Admission:


    There is no reality-based community in America (as discussed in scores of posts on the FM website, such as Facts are the enemy of both Left and Right in our America). This leaves us ungrounded, liable to extreme and irrational responses to events (as we have seen in our mad wars since 9/11).”

    Despite the honest admission, the author is creepily trying to intimidate people into the following compromise:

    a) 2+2=5
    b) 2+2=4

    Coercive mixture of (a) & (b):

    It doesn’t help.

    He’s leveraging fear and if people cave to his creepy coercion he has only worsened the problem he accurately described in the only 2 simple straightforward untwisted direct truth-speaking sentences of his psychologically creepily manipulative article (quoted above).


    As I’ve cautioned (a number of times):

    1. We’re on a steep upward incline of solar cycle deceleration (SCD) — (therefore multidecadal component = rising).

    2. We’ve also just entered the high decade of the bidecadal oscillation. (It has much smaller amplitude than SCD, but it’s still worth being mindful that it peaks in ~2020 (in central limit) and that it’s above average from ~2015 to ~ 2025 (in central limit).)

    3. The sunspot integral (centennial timescale) has only flattened. It has NOT gone into any steep decline like people pretend it should have. Tallbloke is the only other commentator I’ve seen being sensible about this. All other commentators are subordinately & submissively (& shamefully!) obeying the dark californian sun-climate belief-policing narratives that are based on absolutely false assumptions.

    Nature is doing what nature does and when you add up the components nature has us on a high. Nature does things like that — like put us on highs. That’s what makes it natural to be on a high.

    Nature tosses us around like a yo-yo and there’s nothing we can do about it except try to harmonize with and ride nature’s wave.

  97. Paul Vaughan says:

    After reading a lot on the chinadaily website I became suspicious after noting a LOT of articles about sino-british cooperation & collaboration. At first I thought: The british are brilliant for recognizing and aligning with a winner. But then I found an article discussing the planning of chinadaily articles IN LONDON. Lol! Now that was reassuring, as some of the pro-alarmist spin in some of the chinadaily articles then suddenly started making sense and I was reassured. I think it’s wonderful that young kids in London nursaries are learning mandarin, but I would caution the chinese equivalent of usa’s NOAA to not get sucked into british climate propaganda just because another confucian institute is opening at oxford or whatever. The influence will best run both ways. East & west are superior & inferior to one another in different ways and a healthy merging will require some due care to ensure we don’t end up with the worst of both rather than the best of both. Sincerely.

  98. oldbrew says:

    Let’s see what happens when power cuts become a feature of everyday life in windfarm-dependent countries of the future. It’s only a matter of time under present energy policies.

  99. oldbrew says:

    Briggs: Answering A Global Warming True Believer

  100. Paul Vaughan says:

    From OB’s link to the UiB article on a colder early earth:

    “Furnes thinks some researchers may have difficulties accepting the new knowledge of an early, cold Earth. A paradigm shift in Earth Science is not to be expected, but he thinks the climate of the early earth will be seen in a new light.

    ”I think that this will force research to go further,” he says.”

    There’s something so incredibly creepy about people who want to maintain dreamy abstract theories when observational evidence points in a completely different direction.

    I feel so naive about tribes and social construction and the role of myth. There’s so little appreciation for nature as observed. Why is it so exciting to create a social fantasy?…

    Here’s an idea: Let’s say Britain exits. Could Britain then become to the east what Japan is to the west?

    OK… so maybe I actually do understand…
    [ :

  101. Paul Vaughan says:

    Has Trump ever acknowledged that the sun runs terrestrial climate?
    This is how I will decide whether I support him.

  102. Paul Vaughan says:

    Reflecting on what has happened to the american climate blogs over the past decade, here’s what I see:

    They started out looking like they might be inclined towards 2+2=4.
    …but they soon moved the goalposts to 2+2=4.1.
    I started getting offended when they reached 2+2=4.2.
    They lost me at 4.3.
    When they got to 2+2=4.5 I realized lurkwarmism is evil.
    Now they’re pushing for 4.6.
    I think we know from history what eventually stops people who push so hard against the natural grain…

  103. Paul Vaughan says:

    Maybe Jo got it:

  104. Paul Vaughan says:

    Maybe not:

    They still treat Earth as a unit (implicit uniformity assumption).
    Here’s the tip again: It’s not.

    I see that they keep puzzling over what they perceive as a “lag”. It’s not a lag. Jean Dickey already had that worked out in I think it was 2003 (paper on thermal wind). It’s just the spatial dimension.

    You can’t just pretend it’s only temporal. It’s spatiotemporal.

    The waves (which are scrambled by things like ENSO in non-aggregate) integrate poleward where eventually in the north they intersect the ice margin.

    Eyes open?

    If/when so:
    Uniformity assumption = crazy …underscored, bolded, capitalized …even flashing neon if you like.

    The surface of the Earth simply is NOT uniform. Period!

    You can be sure of this:
    If you continue ignoring systematic spatial heterogeneity, the left’s going to bury you confused. There’s no way to sort out the lags if you ignore the spatial dimension (!), so even forever won’t be enough time to figure it out. (Give yourself some space!)

    Step back. Rethink fundamentally. Once sober: DROP the false spatial uniformity assumption as vital step #1.

    I’ve been holding back from just saying this (trying to be cordial & patient), but it’s obvious that the ethical choice now is to help by underscoring that it’s absolutely crazy to falsely assume uniformity. It’s a wrong assumption; bury it (…rather than letting it bury you).

    I would love to see ANYONE — anyone at all — try to defend a statement that Earth is uniform. I mean come on people why is such a notion not just shot down point-blank immediately upon introduction anywhere?

    This is the sort of thing that just completely razes trust… It makes one start asking, “What silly character is pulling these goofy strings??”…

    Jo & David are smart people, so I have to suspect some kind of (disabling) strings attached… This sort of sabotage isn’t helpful. Just let them expand their work to INCLUDE the spatial dimensions. All will fall together rapidly.

    For goodness sake, don’t deliberately & cruelly starve them of SPATIAL reality!!

    [ :

    Good fun trying to correct trains going off-the-rails…
    Humblingly difficult, but perhaps worth the effort… (we’ll see…)

  105. oldbrew says:

    Variations in Solar Cycles 22, 23 & 24 and Their Effect on Earth’s Climate [open access]

    ‘In the present work, the study of influence of solar activity, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity on Earth’s climate during solar cycles 22, 23 and 24 has been done. The change in Earth’s climate, specifically the change in the global mean temperature has been associated with the variation of some solar activity indices, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity indices in the period of 1986-2014 (Till Dec.). The important solar indices that are total solar irradiance (TSI), Sunspot Number (SSN), F10.7 index, Cosmic Ray Intensity (CRI) Kiel (NM), geomagnetic activity indices Auroral Electrojet Index (AE) and aa index, have been presented. The study of the Earth’s climate in relationship with solar activity, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity has been analysed with variations and correlations. The variations of SSN with CRI are in anti-phase; SSN with F10.7, SSN with TSI, SSN with AE, SSN with aa are in same phase. The correlation of SSN with CRI is strongly negatively correlated; SSN with F10.7, SSN with TSI is strongly positively and SSN with AE, SSN with aa positively correlated to averaging solar cycles 22, 23 and 24. The Earth’s climate will be affected by the solar activity, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity. [bold added]

  106. oldbrew says:

    ‘Kill the Deniers’ – not an April Fool joke, it’s an Australian arts project.

  107. Bob Weber says:

    It was bound to happen. I know some of you will like this… I’ve never been moderated anywhere until today. I attempted four times to post the quote below, with no response, then I tried a test, which went through, here.

    Was it my assertion?

    “The philosophy of climate change was a deliberately created ‘-ism‘ established to create a permanent change in the affairs of mankind, no differently than Marxism, communism, or fascism were intended. It is a deliberate top-down construct, not an organically bottom-up social movement, although ‘they’ are trying very hard to turn it into the appearance of a widespread grass-roots campaign.

    The whole climate change debacle is based on two logical fallacies that have become accepted as ‘truths’:

    1) Solar activity variation is considered insufficient to be our main weather/climate ‘forcing’ agent, and

    2) CO2 variation is considered sufficient to be the primary weather/climate ‘forcing’ agent.

    Those two points get to the heart of the ‘type I’ and ‘type II’ errors in the warmist’s ideology.

    The type I error: warmists incorrectly attribute warming to CO2 (what is properly assigned to the sun).

    The type II error: warmists incorrectly believe the sun’s variation is insufficient to cause warming.

    If climate ‘science’ was really held to the kind of standards medical science is held to, the world would’ve long ago known that warmist scientists completely misdiagnosed the cause of warming twice: with a false positive for CO2, and a false negative for the sun’s influence on temperatures.

    2015 was a year of high temps because the sun’s TSI was at its highest level since 2002.

    Everything is going to change for the better as soon as it is seen, as it happens, that lower solar activity is cooling this world, as it is right now, this minute. There will be no going back to CO2 ‘science’ after that.

    There is no philosophy involved with that determination, just recognizing the facts.”

    I was able to immediately post on a different article, so I’ve got a pretty good idea who the moderator is for the philosophy post today… Too funny.

    [mod note] some of the ‘-ism’ words may trigger automatic moderation

  108. Paul Vaughan says:

    Public perception has been strongly jolted by the El Nino.
    It’s a game-changer.

    The game has changed….
    It’s a time to engage in longer-term exploratory planning….

    _ _

    Question #1:

    What series of steps (say over the next 10 to 20 years) need to be taken to eclipse the highest-traffic climate blogs with replacements that allow sun-climate truth? (i.e. no californian-activist belief-cops (undercover left agents & associate mercenaries assigned to mission critical?) elevated on artificial pedestals to sabotage tribal-think by implanting administratively-corrupt notions of “science” based on strictly-false geometric & spatiotemporal aggregation assumptions…)

    Question #2:

    Could I forgive China if China deceives the United States on climate?

    Answer to Q2:
    Yes, for sure! (but please China don’t let us down on security — we absolutely need your help with security)

    Question #3:

    Could Brexit be exactly what is needed to persuade China of sun-climate reality?

    Hehe… I believe so… (I’ve been reading up on China-EU, China-UK, China-US, China-Arab, China-Japan, etc. and by my reading Britain’s in a unique position (due in part to Brexit (even just the threat of it), in part due to geography, and in part due to history) to influence China, perhaps in a manner that no other nation can…. and so may I suggest mandatory Mandarin in schools)

    Question #4:

    Can the outcome of Brexit be predicted using solar system dynamics?

    I’m asking this question for fun.
    I believe so…
    And let me underscore the following: I’m free to believe whatever the f*** I want.

    “true” “climate justice” saviors:
    Californian belief-cops upholding the left’s dreams (by stonewalling a pitifully pliable, hopelessly weak audience with strictly false geometric & spatiotemporal assumtions)…..

    Here’s my strategic tip for China:
    1. Internationally pretend to go along with the climate agenda. (Maybe use the optical opportunity domestically to deal with pollution.)
    2. Be prepared for the following well-in-advance, but wait for the optically-opportune moment to announce: At some point when SCD oscillates strongly (bearing in mind that this can take more than a decade to detect empirically), wisely clarify respect for nature and announce funding for research into natural variations (which play a role in regional stability at multidecadal timescale).
    3. Be solid and act with more integrity than the west on security.

    My suggestion for the west: Ask for China’s help with security. You need it. With good help maybe someday you’ll be able to drop the climate ruse…

  109. Oldmank says:

    Snippet from PV ” I’m free to believe whatever the f*** I want.”

    NO–You are not free. Belief is the lack of mental freedom; a fettered mind. (It is the same illogic as having a right to one’s opinion. Opinion is basically a bias, especially if uninformed and unresearched, worse than useless.)

  110. RJ Salvador says:

    An update of actual LOD data from December 1st 2015 to March 1st 2016 to the LOD model shows that the actual data tracks the model very well. There was a less than 2 sigma deviation from the model from approximately January 1st to 12th but the actual data has since returned close to the models prediction.

    I will update it again in two months.

  111. oldbrew says:

    NASA measures raindrop sizes from space to understand storms.

    ‘For the first time, scientists have three-dimensional snapshots of raindrops and snowflakes around the world from space.’

    “The drop size distribution is one of many factors that determines how big a storm will grow, how long it will last and how much rain it will ultimately produce,” said Joe Munchak, research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “We’ve never been able to see how water droplet sizes vary globally until now.”

  112. R J Salvador says:

    Below is an update of the comparison of actual LOD data to the LOD model prediction from December 1st 2015 to March 1st 2016. The actual data tracks well to the model prediction. There is a deviation from the model from around January 1st to January 12 that is within 2 sigma and then the actual data tracks the model prediction again. I wonder what caused that? I will update the comparison again in two months. So far it is looking good.

  113. oldbrew says:

    RJS: ‘There is a deviation from the model from around January 1st to January 12 that is within 2 sigma and then the actual data tracks the model prediction again. I wonder what caused that?’

    That period overlaps Earth’s perihelion, so maybe the Sun was a factor?

  114. oldbrew says:

    Another Look at Science – by Donna Laframboise

    Since the early 1980s, grave concerns have been raised about the process by which scientific evidence gets produced.

  115. Paul Vaughan says:

    Oldmank quoted & provoked:
    “Snippet from PV ” I’m free to believe whatever the f*** I want.”
    NO–You are not free. Belief is the lack of mental freedom; a fettered mind.”

    We’re FREE to WALK AWAY from the AUTHORITARIAN belief-prescriptions of californian ideologues …who uphold free speech so they can spectacularly “correct” it with a bludgeon, thus demonstrating the optical inferiority and lost opportunity of censorship in the twisted mind of an authoritarian ideologue.

  116. oldbrew says:

    Headline: ‘Science relies on computer modelling – so what happens when it goes wrong?’

    ‘Modern science, however, is theoretical. Theoretical science also makes predictions, but it derives them from mathematical models rather than from prior observations.’

    Scientists are generally not qualified computer programmers.

  117. Oldmank says:

    Quote from oldbrew “‘Modern science, however, is theoretical. Theoretical science also makes predictions, but it derives them from mathematical models rather than from prior observations.’”

    Now this is where I am provoked. Like the assumed model for the change of earth’s obliquity.

    The simplistic model is, – just that. The assumptions made, purposely trimmed to arrive at a preconceived result render it meaningless. Add to that ‘computer programs’ where many times the assumptions made within the program itself, and the constraints only known to the program creator, render such things worse than useless. Luckily many times that modelling is only a past-time.

    Unfortunately not always. Two computer program designed jobs I refused to accept. One after the job was done and then scrapped at a high cost, the second at design, which would have resulted in an expensive major disaster in money and lives. Beware.

  118. oldbrew says:

    Ex-programmers like myself know it’s quite possible to have a ‘working’ program that appears to be doing what it was supposed to do, but has a bug or bugs in it.

    The trick is to winkle them out before the program goes ‘live’. It’s called ‘testing’ 😉

  119. R J Salvador says:

    There is also a sunspot model to update on how it is doing. The problem is that, since the model was created back in 2013, the way sunspots are measured was altered. However an approximate value of the old sunspot number can be easily derived from the new number by multiplying the new number by 0.6322. The R^2 for this is 0.97. So below is an update of the models prediction to the sunspot data up to the beginning of 2016.

    The model was not particularly accurate in nailing the start and stop dates of a cycle as the focus was directed towards modelling sunspot intensity and solar minimums. It’s in the ball park. And It still looks like we are already into a minimum. I will up date it again next year if I am still on this earth.

  120. Oldmank says:

    @ oldbrew: the problem is that only you, the programmer, would know that. One particular program was on thermal plant design. Its misuse led to inane results on more than one occasion. The users of that type of program are never the developers.

    Is this the result of one such error?

    It is a quite common problem in power plants, sometimes resulting from the misuse of a ‘piping design’ program.

  121. oldbrew says:

    Oldmank – what happens at major computer sites is [or should be] something like this:
    1) programmer’s own tests e.g. is it a viable piece of software
    2) general tests using a dummy system, or part of one
    3) tests by the ‘owners’ of the program (the end users)
    4) when tests are all passed: go live

    That’s the theory of it at least.

  122. Oldmank says:

    oldbrew – from my own experience, what normally happens is this. A program is purchased; it is installed, and applied as the buyer thinks it would work. The two major pitfalls were lack of understanding of the basis of the program (such as FEA) and even less understanding of the basics behind a design (such as ‘theory of materials’). Add to that total absence of Quality Control, in spite of the many certifications one is presented with. In twenty years I cannot name anyone I met with a truly sound QA. Beware.

  123. USteiner says:

    German papers report about a 10th planet in our system, which maybe the cause for mass extinction events every 27 million years. The potential mechanism is that the planet’s orbit goes through the Kuiper belt, and the planet kind of drags much of that stuff with it, which then results in clouding the sun light for earth and showers earth with meteorites.


    But what interest me is the stated fact of a cyclic mass extinction. So far I thought there was only 1 big event, which eradicated the dinosaurs, and perhaps a few other collision which had minor impact, but all of them supposedly random events.

    Do we really have a track of mass extinction every 27 Mio years?

  124. Oldmank says:

    From USteiner “Do we really have a track of mass extinction every 27 Mio years?”

    Interesting,, But. There is ample evidence of periodic human destruction a few Kyears ago, from historical writing, from archaeology, from geological evidence, and from ancient man-made artifacts. What’s more this evidence ties together.

    My question: why interest in millions of years ago, but apparently refuse to consider what has happened in the more recent human era–to us? Echoes of Velikovsky, when he said humanity still lives in denial of what happened to it in the past. We query what happened before the ‘big bang’ or what will happen when we travel through a ‘black hole’. But seemingly little interest in the ‘quite near’.

    What happened to the dinosaurs may have been no different than what happened to our ancestors in quite recent times. The dinosaurs perished but the cockroach survived unscathed.

  125. oldbrew says:

    ALMA’s Most Detailed Image of a Protoplanetary Disc
    Evidence for planet formation in Earth-like orbit around young star

    ‘This new image from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) shows the finest detail ever seen in the planet-forming disc around the nearby Sun-like star TW Hydrae. It reveals a tantalising gap at the same distance from the star as the Earth is from the Sun, which may mean that an infant version of our home planet, or possibly a more massive super-Earth, is beginning to form there.’

    ‘concentric dusty rings’ [bigger images]

    Preview version

  126. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK: quoting from here

    ‘Climate simulation and weather forecasting codes are among the most complex examples of scientific software. Moreover, many of them are written in Fortran, making them some of the largest and most complex Fortran codes ever developed.’

    ‘…we provide some guidelines for people wishing to develop software development tools for Fortran. Notably, such tools must scale to million-line code bases, they must handle constructs that the ISO Fortran standard has deemed obsolescent, and they must work fluently in the presence of C pre-processor directives.’

    Good luck with that, software people.

  127. Oldmank says:

    oldbrew, to my mind its worse than I feared. I was interested in Fortran once, it seems today aeons ago, before the BBC computer and basic appeared and changed the scene. It was said that those exposed to basic can never be taught good programming. I lost interest then. Your post isn’t comforting.

  128. USteiner says:

    oldbrew: that sounds like the Nemesis theory or one of its alternatives.

    Oh, look at that! And I thought it is a new story. If Wikipedia is true
    then it does need some generosity to interpret this as cycles of 27mio years.

    The good thing is, it could be possible. Is the revival perhaps explained by budget time for some researchers, and these things come in handy?

  129. oldbrew says:

    Whitmire is a retired professor but he’s been pushing the Planet X extinction theory for a long time.

    Whitmire and his colleague, John Matese, first published research on the connection between Planet X and mass extinctions in the journal Nature in 1985 while working as astrophysicists at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. Their work was featured in a 1985 Time magazine cover story titled, “Did Comets Kill the Dinosaurs? A Bold New Theory About Mass Extinctions.”

    Read more at:

  130. oldbrew says:

    Getting dafter all the time…

    ‘White House claims warmer world is bad for health’

  131. USteiner says:

    oldbrew: ‘White House claims warmer world is bad for health’

    Obviously true. Those older folks who go to Florida very often die there!

    [reply] not expecting any big rush to Alaska 😉

  132. oldbrew says:

    New research: ‘Melting at the base of the Greenland ice sheet explained by Iceland hotspot history’

  133. oldbrew says:


    ‘In a recently published research, `A 20 year decline in solar photospheric magnetic field: Inner heliospheric signatures and possible implications’ published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) recently , astronomers indicate that over the last 20 years there has been a steady decline in the sun’s photospheric (sun’s surface) and interplanetary or heliospheric magnetic fields. This is indicated by a drastic decline in the number of sun spots on its surface and a corresponding decrease in solar wind microturbulence in the Sun’s last two 11-year solar cycles. We are currently in solar cycle 24, which is expected to end in 2020.’

  134. Paul Vaughan says:

    doesn’t know how to make a graph
    doesn’t know how to compare observations to model (doh!)
    backs down at the slightest criticism because unable to independently assess veracity
    not helpful …at all

    This is ridiculous.
    This is a target almost anyone can eclipse.

    My suggestion: Let someone else try. Worse can’t be done so it can be anyone at all.

  135. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, in the north it’s not a simple matter of activity level integral.
    Changes in the timing shape poleward pumping of equatorial heat. Observing who resists this fact is the quickest way to identify dark agency in the climate discussion.

  136. Paul Vaughan says:

    It will cause waves that some won’t like, but it’s a time when I suggest we need to up the truth-speaking because things are getting really ridiculous…

    I suspect that through some hidden social (or maybe financial) mechanisms the american climate “skeptic” blogs are working either for the Democratic Party or some agency (or combination of agencies) like NOAA. (Even if this is not their intent, it’s their effect.)

    They refuse to admit the 3 most key sun-climate facts to discussion.
    Is it really the case that nothing can be done about this (without outside help)?? (i.e. they’re so corrupt that just never mind even trying to correct them? is it really that bad?? probably it is but I’m putting the question right out in plain view to provoke consideration of exactly what it would take to correct the corruption)

    For many years I’ve always reassuringly suggested to worried Canadians in conversations that if things ever got really out of hand & bad in the US, sensible americans would grab the reigns, but my mind is now fully open to the possibility that I was completely wrong. In fact I’m now near-certain that I was dead-wrong and that correction can only come from outside.

    The easy thing to do about this that wouldn’t ruffle any feathers would be to simply walk away and (from a safe distance) let corruption be corruption.

    The responsible thing to do might look more like issuing daily reminders even though some (corrupt) people are going to be mightily upset about it.

    Where are the sensible people who are going to help correct this corruption?

    My top guesses:
    2. the far east (especially if non-usa parts of the anglosphere remain too cowardly to confront US climate corruption)

    I know this type of comment will upset a lot of (corrupt) people, but I think it needs to be said boldly because things are too far out of hand and some sort of correction is needed.

  137. oldbrew says:

    CEI Fights Subpoena to Silence Debate on Climate Change
    State Attorneys General attack free speech, intimidate policy groups and scientists


  138. Paul Vaughan says:

    6 April 2016
    Cloud cover anomalies at middle latitudes: links to troposphere dynamics and solar variability


    earlier work by the authors:

    Click to access 76_Veretenenko.pdf


    Scafetta on 60 year auroras:

  139. Paul Vaughan says:

    other recent work by the same authors:

    Click to access SG_v10_No1_2015-pp-51-58.pdf

  140. oldbrew says:

    World Bank, IPCC gather to discuss climate risks

    Bank of England meddling in climate politics.

  141. Paul Vaughan says:

    The Party has taken down Canada’s #1 New Democrat in a leadership review.

    Climate Enthusiasts will love the context and backstory.

    Cliff Jumping 101…

    Saturday, April 9, 2016 7:20PM EDT

    OTTAWA — The Leap Manifesto is a document that calls for a radical restructuring of the economy as Canada swiftly moves toward ending the use of fossil fuels.

    Here’s what the manifesto calls for:

    — Shift swiftly away from fossil fuels so that Canada gets 100 per cent of its electricity from renewable resources within 20 years and is entirely weaned off fossil fuels by 2050.

    — No new infrastructure projects aimed at increasing extraction of non-renewable resources, including pipelines.

    — “Energy democracy,” in which energy sources are collectively controlled by communities instead of “profit-gouging” private companies.

    — An end to all trade deals “that interfere with our attempts to rebuild local economies, regulate corporations and stop damaging extractive projects.”

    — Expand low-carbon sectors of the economy, such as caregiving, teaching, social work, the arts and public-interest media.

    — Vigorous debate on the idea of introducing a universal guaranteed minimum income.

    — Declare that “austerity — which has systematically attacked low-carbon sectors like education and health care while starving public transit and forcing reckless energy privatizations — is a fossilized form of thinking that has become a threat to life on earth.”

    — Pay for it all by ending fossil fuel subsidies, imposing financial transaction taxes, increasing resource royalties, hiking taxes on corporations and the wealthy, introducing a progressive carbon tax, and cutting military spending.

    Leaping of a cliff…

    “When I first read the Leap Manifesto, I was excited because it reflected a lot of the things that I’ve been thinking about in terms of policy and politics,” he said. “However, in politics, sometimes things become symbols and not policy and I’m afraid that’s what is happening with the Leap document.”

    “We recognize the pain and wrenching anxiety of tens of thousands of families in this great province of Alberta who are hurting because Big Oil wanted their labour in the boom and then bailed on them in the bust […]”
    Lewis stressed on the floor of the convention Sunday that the manifesto is not designed to be inconsiderate of those who work in the oil and gas industry.
    Among other things, the manifesto calls for:

    • Moving away from fossil fuels so that Canada gets 100 per cent of its electricity from renewable resources within 20 years and is entirely weaned off fossil fuels by 2050;
    • No new infrastructure projects aimed at increasing extraction of non-renewable resources, including pipelines;
    • An end to all trade deals “that interfere with our attempts to rebuild local economies, regulate corporations and stop damaging extractive projects”;
    • Expand low-carbon sectors of the economy, such as caregiving, teaching, social work, the arts and public-interest media;
    • End fossil fuel subsidies, impose financial transaction taxes, increase resource royalties, hike taxes on corporations and the wealthy, introduce a progressive carbon tax, and cut military spending.
    Published Saturday, April 9, 2016 2:37PM EDT
    Last Updated Sunday, April 10, 2016 4:51PM EDT

    EDMONTON — Federal New Democrats spurned the pleas of their Alberta brethren and signalled a desire to shift their party back to the left Sunday by agreeing to explore the merits of a manifesto that calls for more drastic action to combat climate change.

    Adoption of the principles of the Leap Manifesto came just hours before delegates to the NDP’s national convention voted to replace leader […]

    The manifesto advocates a swift end to the use of fossil fuels, including a moratorium on new infrastructure projects such as pipelines that perpetuate reliance on the non-renewable resources that contribute to climate change.

    This is a mainstream news media source covering some pretty far-out ideas. Why?…

    “Grassroots New Democrats are to debate the policies that will flow from the manifesto as part of the run-up to the party’s next policy convention in 2018.”

    Canada has both a Green Party and a Liberal Party (the traditional left-center opponent of the center-right Conservative Party) that compete with the NDP (New Democratic Party) for support, so it will be interesting and entertaining observing how the NDP shotgun marriage of green with left weathers the 2 year long mainstream news media cycle (an eternity in politics) ensured by the symbolism of messy cliff jumping.

  142. Paul Vaughan says:

    My dear comrade, dream…

    And again dear friends, note how it (the belief-policing) is always from California:

    What’s up with that?…

    So there you have it: Lots of cartoon ideas for Josh.

  143. Paul Vaughan says:

    Classic thought-policing:

    Perfect for the brain-dead spineless audience who volunteer to be jerked around by puppet-masters themselves propped up on artificial pedestals.

    Like always the case is based on egregiously false spatiotemporal & geometric assumptions (made implicitly without explicit statement) and ignores the fatal implications of the nonrandom residuals from the flawed mainstream model.

    Off-the-scale on the dark-creepy-agency meter.

    This stuff always comes from California, where they know you need to be coerced into a line of belief…

  144. Paul Vaughan says:

    Divide & Conquer 101…

    The gloves are off as geography and politics collide…
    Leap Manifesto: Alberta NDP ‘had nothing to do with this nonsense’
    ‘These downtown Toronto political dilettantes come to Alberta and track their garbage across our front lawn’

  145. oldbrew says:

    Looks like Canada has more hydro-electric power potential than it knows what to do with.

  146. oldbrew says:

    Astronomers in South Africa discover mysterious alignment of black holes

    “Since these black holes don’t know about each other, or have any way of exchanging information or influencing each other directly over such vast scales, this spin alignment must have occurred during the formation of the galaxies in the early universe”

    “This is not obviously expected based on our current understanding of cosmology. It’s a bizarre finding.”

    Read more at:

  147. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB quoted: “our current understanding of cosmology”

    Let me do the correction for them — what they should have said:

    “our current misunderstanding of cosmology”

    [reply] new post:

  148. Paul Vaughan says:

    Prescribed cure for
    a) false spatiotemporal & geometric assumptions
    b) administratively-narrow-minded climate dark agency

    Under normal conditions, information from our eyes is processed in the visual cortex, a part of the brain located near the back of the head. However, when the volunteers took LSD, several additional parts of the brain became involved in the visual processing […]

    “We saw that many more areas of the brain than normal were contributing to visual processing under LSD […] Furthermore, the size of this effect correlated with volunteers’ ratings of complex, dreamlike visions.”

    The researchers also observed changes in the volunteers under LSD, leading to a more “integrated” and “unified” brain.

    Carhart-Harris said that normally the brain consists of “independent networks” that perform separate specialized functions, such as vision, movement and hearing. However, he said, under LSD the “separateness of these networks breaks down,” leading to a more “integrated or unified brain.”

    He said that the results suggest the effect causes the “profound altered state of consciousness” that people often describe when using LSD.

    Climate dark agents may even realize how evil they appear when rudely misrepresenting nature & nature’s beauty.

  149. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB suggested: “Looks like Canada has more hydro-electric power potential than it knows what to do with.”

    “Canada has …”

    should read:
    “Some Canadian provinces have …”

    In Canada the provinces control resources.

    That leads to all kinds of inter-provincial disputes like Quebec obstructing Newfoundland & Labrador hydropower export to northeast USA, BC obstructing Alberta oil export to Pacific markets, and Quebec & Ontario obstructing Alberta oil export to Atlantic markets.

    The regional disunity is intense. There’s a messy history and bitter memories in some western provinces from a time when the federal government tried to intervene in matters of provincial jurisdiction. When it comes to resources, Canada is a loose, weak federation and the provinces get into heated disputes.

  150. Paul Vaughan says:

    101 on false assumptions of uniformity (including regions explosively transcending political ideology):

    Alberta NDP members are openly discussing splitting from the federal party after delegates agreed to support “Toronto political dilettantes” and their “garbage” Leap Manifesto at the party’s national convention in Edmonton.

    “I’m spitting angry,” says Alberta labour leader Gil McGowan. “These downtown Toronto political dilettantes come to Alberta and track their garbage across our front lawn.”
    McGowan said some Alberta NDP delegates were so upset over the document, they began to talk about separating from their federal counterparts.

    “Members started coming to me to say, ‘We have to write a resolution to our provincial convention to split from the federal party.’

    “Those discussions are going on right now,” said McGowan.
    McGowan, a party delegate and former federal NDP candidate, called support for the manifesto an “incredibly poor strategic decision” and “bad political optics.”

    […] wasted no time in calling the document “a radical anti-Alberta resolution,” […] “radical socialist ideology.”
    “It breaks my heart,” McGowan said. “We finally elect a progressive government in Alberta and these people are not giving them room to govern.”

    But it was on a personal level he felt most betrayed, he said.

    As a labour leader, the manifesto’s disregard for working people annoyed McGowan the most.

    “It makes them feel good to say that we have to deal with climate change and shut down the fossil fuel industry, but they ignore what they say has real implications for real people.”


    Tons of Alberta oil workers have lost their jobs (impact of enduring low oil price).

    Alberta had a conservative government for 40 consecutive years. In the last election that pattern broke and NDP (regarded by conservatives as “socialist”) gained power (something most imagined impossible & unthinkable).

    The Alberta (provincial) NDP rift with Canadian (federal) NDP over this “Leap Manifesto” (a symbol which stirs conservative suspicion of radical socialist agenda) clarifies crucially false assumption.

    Lefties all across Canada were excited that a left-of-center party won a provincial election in Alberta after 4 solid decades of decisive lock-out, but look at what’s happening now.

    It was a shotgun wedding of green with labor and there’s a visible problem in the marriage.

    I bet JoNova with her incisive writing style could craft quite an internationally influential piece on this drama if she can sense her way through the foreign regionalized context. It’s probably hard to follow for outsiders unaware of or only vaguely aware of and trying to accurately sense from afar the regional nuances, but the big message here is that something’s explosively transcending political allegiances.

    It’s always refreshing seeing false assumptions illuminated like this. I find the spatial dimension of this failed aggregation particularly delightful, as it’s symptomatic of exactly what’s wrong (by analogy) with californian sun-climate belief-policing aggression, which to me has been the absolute scum-bottom of the climate politics barrel. It cannot be sufficiently underscored how intolerably creepy & factually corrupt that belief-policing campaign is. It’s mind-boggling that sensible people haven’t yet slammed the door in their collective face.

  151. oldbrew says:

    Daily Telegraph reports…

    Gas made from cheese to heat hundreds of homes

    Crazy? You might think so.

    Why? ‘The project is going ahead thanks to a lucrative Government subsidy scheme which rewards homes and businesses for producing energy from renewable sources, in order to meet EU renewable energy targets and UK climate change goals.’

    Who pays? ‘Lake District Biogas, the developer which is funding the up-front cost of the project, is expected to receive about £2 million a year in subsidies, paid for by consumers through levies on their energy bills, for the next 20 years.’

  152. oldbrew says:

    Earth-facing sunspot compared to the size of Earth…

  153. Paul Vaughan says:

    Beautiful image OB.

    It’s a testament to the truly formidable power of manipulatively twisted human psychology how 6 “experts” have through an american climate “skeptic” (they’re not skeptics) blog pulled the wool over right-leaning masses in their unwavering support of a leftward dream now hinging on 1 false core assumption at the base of a politically-crucial “reasoning” (it’s anything but logical) framework.

    All they had to do was brutally suppress awareness of the spatial dimension.

    The mystery is why a right-leaning crowd fell (or at least optically appeared to fall) for the deception.

  154. oldbrew says:

    The De-Industrial Revolution Spreads

    ‘Greens have started the DI (de-industrial) revolution. Their policies aim to have Britain producing no coal or steel and relying on expensive, subsidized, intermittent energy from windmills.

    Consequently, heavy industry in Britain is in sharp decline, real jobs are scarce and some frosty night, lights will go out, trains will stop and “Earth Hour” will last until dawn.’

  155. oldbrew says:

    CBS Sacramento: Is California’s Godzilla El Nino-That-Wasn’t Giving Way To La Nina?

    “El Nino has actually been weakening over the last several months. It peaked way back in November and December. We’re in a weak El Nino phase right now. It’ll probably be neutral conditions by May or so”

  156. BLACK PEARL says:

    A picture says a thousand words … BBC thanks for the heads up!
    A bunch of conmen cold-calling you in the near future

    Dont give them your bank details or the EU will try to take all your savings like they did to savers in Cypruss & Greece

    Get out quick before it turns to reality

  157. oldbrew says:

    Babylonian geometry and more.

    ‘One of the Yale Babylonian Collections most famous objects is a nearly 4,000 year old tablet that shows that the Babylonians understood the “Pythagorean Theorem” over a thousand year before Pythagoras lived.’

  158. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s not very surprising. The wheel’s naturally destined for repeated rediscovery and reinvention. Imagine what more advanced civilizations know. We must appear as dogs to them, if not worse. They could probably remotely domesticate us with nothing more than communication.

  159. Paul Vaughan says:

    Let’s try to look at EOP (Earth Orientation Parameters) from a mainstream climate perspective to see what THEY would see…

    They accept the existence of semi-annual & QBO.


    harmonic of tropical year nearest lunar draconic month:
    (365.242189) / 13 = 28.095553 days

    (28.095553)*(27.212221) / (28.095553 – 27.212221) = 865.5210016 days
    (865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718033 years = QBO

    harmonic of QBO nearest semi-annual:
    (2.369718033) / 5 = 0.473943607
    (0.5)*(0.473943607) / (0.5 – 0.473943607) = 9.094574181 years

    Now supposing they accept existence of BDO (bidecadal oscillation):
    (29.447498)*(11.862615) / (29.447498 – 11.862615) = 19.86503587 sidereal years
    = 19.86580677 tropical years

    harmonic nearest 9.094574181:
    (19.86580677) / 2 = 9.932903385

    (9.932903385)*(9.094574181) / (9.932903385 – 9.094574181) = 107.7566261 years

    They would expect an ENSO volatility cycle (THAT’S NOT A CYCLE IN THE MEAN, MAINSTREAM MORONS!!) of length 108 years.

    Even though I typed that in all-caps, they’ll STILL interpret this comment as being about the mean. That’s how dumb they are about volatility clustering; it’s like they don’t even know what it is. Ridiculous!

    (to be continued)

  160. Paul Vaughan says:

    Now let’s go down the OTHER side of their conventional coin: ANNUAL.

    harmonic of QBO nearest annual:
    (2.369718033) / 2 = 1.184859016

    (1.184859016)*(1) / (1.184859016 – 1) = 6.409527865

    again assuming they can stretch their minds to accept existence of BDO:

    harmonic of BDO nearest 6.409527865:
    (6.62193559)*(6.409527865) / (6.62193559 – 6.409527865) = 199.820796

    harmonic of 199.820796 nearest 107.7566261:
    (199.820796) / 2 = 99.91039801

    (107.7566261)*(99.91039801) / (107.7566261 – 99.91039801) = 1372.125212
    (107.7566261)*(99.91039801) / (107.7566261 + 99.91039801) = 51.84264304 (pentadecadal)
    (107.7566261)*(99.91039801) / ( (107.7566261 + 99.91039801) / 2 ) = 103.6852861
    2*(103.6852861) = 207.3705722

    (365.256363)*(365.242189) / (365.256363 – 365.242189) = 9412092.276
    (9412092.276) / 365.242189 = 25769.45534

    (25769.45534)*(1372.125212) / (25769.45534 – 1372.125212) = 1449.294623
    (25769.45534)*(1372.125212) / (25769.45534 + 1372.125212) = 1302.758301
    (25769.45534)*(1372.125212) / ( (25769.45534 + 1372.125212) / 2 ) = 2605.516602



    If they REFUSE to accept BDO (they could actually sensibly object with it has negligible amplitude so why bother kind of thing) but DO accept the existence of the terrestrial year and still accept the existence of QBO & semiannual (you never know with these people – they like to be nasty head-f**ks to discourage participation) then they would expect an ENSO volatility cycle of length 96.16339375 years.

    harmonic of 9.094574181 nearest annual:
    (9.094574181) / 9 = 1.010508242
    (1.010508242)*(1) / (1.010508242 – 1) = 96.16339375 years

    96 years
    Gotcha! You can run from BDO, but you caN’T run from annual, semi-annual, & QBO.
    96 years

  161. Paul Vaughan says:

    Recap of this insight volunteered your way thanks to my vital Chinese contacts (these contacts are superior to anyone you’ll meet in the climate discussion):

    harmonic of tropical year nearest lunar draconic month:
    (365.242189) / 13 = 28.095553 days

    (28.095553)*(27.212221) / (28.095553 – 27.212221) = 865.5210016 days
    (865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718033 years = QBO

    harmonic of QBO nearest semi-annual:
    (2.369718033) / 5 = 0.473943607
    (0.5)*(0.473943607) / (0.5 – 0.473943607) = 9.094574181 years

    harmonic of 9.094574181 nearest annual:
    (9.094574181) / 9 = 1.010508242
    (1.010508242)*(1) / (1.010508242 – 1) = 96.16339375 years

    It’s simple and it’s conventional.


    Weed out the doubters BEFORE clarifying. That’s how to maximize how silly they look in the end for opposing simple truth every step of the way. They flunk the exam despite generous clearly revealing hints. It doesn’t matter who appeared to have the upper hand along the way. In the end the victors rewrite history.

    Bon Courage

  162. Oldmank says:

    From oldbrew “Babylonians understood the “Pythagorean Theorem” over a thousand year before Pythagoras lived.’”

    Others discovered the optics behind the ‘camera obscura’ four thousand years before Aristotle. They used that principle to make very accurate solar calendars. No rocket science really, all they had to do is dissect and study the eyes of their sunday roast.

  163. oldbrew says:

    PV says: ‘harmonic of 9.094574181 nearest annual’

    12 x 9.094574181y = 115 draconic years

    Also: 9 draconic years = 4 Earth-Mars conjunctions (ratio = 3²:2²)

  164. Paul Vaughan says:

    96 reminders to go with new notes above:

  165. Paul Vaughan says:

    Note that the spatial pattern matches polar geothermal pattern.

    • lunar draconic month
    • tropical year
    • semi-annual oscillation

    That’s it.

  166. oldbrew says:

    CO2 Science reports:

    ‘In this extremely enlightening paper, Diaz et al. (2015) analyzed data on daily deaths due to natural causes in the city of Madrid (Spain) over the period 2001-2009, calculating the impact of both extreme hot and cold temperatures on mortality using Poisson regression models for specific age groups. And what did they thereby learn?

    The five Spanish researchers report that “the mean intensity of the heat waves (0.8°C) was half that of the cold waves (1.7°C).” However, they found that the effect of cold on mortality was five times greater than that of heat. And if that sounds a bit extreme, they further note that the recent study of Gasparrini et al. (2015) showed, on a global basis, that cold-induced mortality is fully twenty times higher than that induced by heat.’
    [bold added]

  167. oldbrew says:

    GE engineers have developed a turbine that is no bigger than the size of an average desk yet can produce enough power for an average town.

    Designed by GE Global Research, the turbine uses superheated carbon dioxide and could be a breakthrough technology in terms of cleaner, more efficient power generation into the future.

    GE confirmed the power cycle is a closed loop which circulates the CO2 continuously around the cycle, and that there are no waste products from the system when used with solar energy.

  168. oldbrew says:

    Report: ‘Emails reveal NY AG Schneiderman, other AG’s colluding with Al Gore and greens to investigate climate skeptics’

    ‘Attorneys General across the country have come out strongly against these investigations. West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey said, “You cannot use the power of the office of the Attorney General to silence your critics.” Oklahoma AG Scott Pruitt and Alabama AG Luther Strange issued a joint press release stating, “It is inappropriate for State Attorneys General to use the power of their office to attempt to silence core political speech on one of the major policy debates of our time.” AG Jeff Landry of Louisiana said, “It is one thing to use the legal system to pursue public policy outcomes; but it is quite another to use prosecutorial weapons to intimidate critics, silence free speech, or chill the robust exchange of ideas.” ‘

  169. Chaeremon says:

    Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle, Elsevier 2016, [h/t] will reconsider its anti-cycles 😉 ?

  170. Oldmank says:

    From “Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle” it says ” The enhancement of the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal oscillations which is found up to 71% faster than the atmospheric CO2 increase, focus on earth greening and benefit for crops yields”.– We wish.

    Some of us are old enough to remember clearly 60 years ago and it certainly was not like this. Find a different theory; this one does not match the facts.

  171. oldbrew says:

    It’s true that increased CO2 in the atmosphere is favourable to just about anything that grows in the ground.

  172. Paul Vaughan says:

    Chaeremon asked:
    “will reconsider its anti-cycles ?”


    Maybe you’re not understanding who is waging that campaign and why if you hold out such hope.

    Such negative campaigning is waged in ENEMY camps to discourage political participation. They’re waging the war FOR the alarmist side.

    You don’t distribute negative campaigning to your supporters in a political campaign. You direct the negative campaigning at ENEMIES. This discourages them from voting and from participating in the political process more generally.

    That site is designed to crush the opposition to the alarmist movement. It has been very effective in moving masses of right-wingers alarm-ward. It has silenced sensible exploration and appreciation of nature and beaten the audience into timid lukewarm compliance.

    Whoever’s pulling the strings of that place for the alarmist side knows exactly what they’re doing to slowly wear down the opposition. In the future it will make a useful case in a Media Studies 101 course. They’re devouring the left’s opposition — mowing it down.

    The whole campaign is based on a few strategically chosen false assumptions. Everything hinges on a few key false base assumptions and you get all of that outgrowth of political utility from just that. It’s very clever. It’s as clever as it is corrupt. These people know exactly what they’re doing.

  173. Oldmank says:

    CO2 is essential in the vegetative cycle powered by photosynthesis. But nothing grows on a parched soil, and little on one that is frequently under water. The right combination is essential for humanity especially where it might effect the world’s bread baskets.

    What is worse, in the past 60 years many have abandoned raising even part of their staple need in favour of cheaper import (plus fiddling with limitations).

    It is important that the changes that appear to be taking place are properly understood. (in a report the IMechE blamed the start of the troubles in Egypt on a rise in the price of bread).

  174. Paul Vaughan says:

    (2016) Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle

    Click to access 1-s2.0-S0012825216300277-main.pdf

    “a sinusoid of period ~60 years”

    For the one-hundred-thousandth time: It isn’t a sinusoid.

    It’s a SPATIOtemporal component AND IT ISN’T EVEN THE MAIN COMPONENT.

    Ongoing misrepresentation (for political AND ECONOMIC purposes) of the solar cycle length differintegral is criminal.

    [mod note] new post:

  175. Paul Vaughan says:

    Oldmank suggested:
    “It is important that the changes that appear to be taking place are properly understood.”

    The political & economic context is too corrupted, so the best possible scenario is that a few luminaries will understand. Public perception will always be scrambled by spin-masters. Powerful Americans in particular unhelpfully perceive themselves as embattled in an information war and on a losing trajectory, so it will get worse, not better. I don’t think they can calm down and be sensible. They’re too frightened.

  176. oldbrew says:

    From NTZ:
    “Climate McCarthyism” May Backfire As Large Body Of New Science Shows Claims Of “Consensus” Are An Illusion

  177. Paul Vaughan says:


    I’ve been running checks, double-checks, triple-checks, quadruple-checks, & quintuple-checks on the 96 year volatility envelope. It checks out no matter which creative way I frame the diagnostics to try to find a misalignment. This thing is aligned. It’s aligned to the point where the JSEV framework and the J2000 MEAN lunisolar framework differ by only 2 tenths of a SECOND per lunar draconic cycle. This means astronomers would need 200 thousand years worth of precise lunar orbit OBSERVATIONS (not to be confused with theory) to confidently test the hypothesis of misalignment. Recall: We discussed this cycle way, way back on an Ian Wilson thread. We did some productive pioneering around that time but I know from the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, & even seventh, eighth, ninth, & tenth looks I’ve given this over recent months (e.g. on Suggestions-16 & Suggestions-17) that we overlooked something important at that time. As I’ve said and illustrated before (see another Ian Wilson Talkshop thread where I posted a bunch of NASA Horizons recipes including 6.4 year aliasing) and can now underscore more forcefully: The lunar nodal cycle (LNC) is NOT free of JSEV. LNC is LOCKED to JSEV and NASA JPL should CERTAINLY know about this. It’s the kind of thing I would expect (or at least hope for) them to be teaching me.

    The thing that’s most nourishing about this is that if you look at the right metrics you can see the attractors. I’ll never understand the oldschool mindset (and now political spin) of basing quantitative exploration on false spatiotemporal assumptions about form & function as anything other than deception in today’s light.

  178. oldbrew says:

    A Few Facts For Climate Alarmists Waging War Against Astrophysicist Willie Soon
    by Ron Arnold April 20, 2016

  179. Paul Vaughan says:

    More on lunar nodal lock to JSUNEV:

    (27.212221)*(27) / (27.212221 – 27) = 3462.098317 days
    (3462.098317) / 365.256363 = 9.478543478 years
    (9.932517933)*(9.478543478) / (9.932517933 – 9.478543478) = 207.381279 years
    (19.86503587)*(9.478543478) / (19.86503587 – 9.478543478) = 18.1285076 years
    (18.1285076) / 2 = 9.064253798 years (JSUNEV- = 9.071449157 years)
    (19.86503587)*(9.478543478) / (19.86503587 + 9.478543478) = 6.41679067 years (JSUNEV+ = 6.418592739 years)
    (19.86503587)*(9.478543478) / ( (19.86503587 + 9.478543478) / 2 ) = 12.83358134 years

    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 27 days:
    (27)*(26.08872779) / (27 – 26.08872779) = 772.9804982 days
    (772.9804982) / 365.242189 = 2.116350524 tropical years

    harmonic of 2.116350524 nearest 0.5:
    (2.116350524) / 4 = 0.529087631 tropical years
    (0.529087631)*(0.5) / (0.529087631 – 0.5) = 9.094718461 tropical years

    harmonic of 9.094718461 nearest 1:
    (9.094718461) / 9 = 1.010524273 tropical years
    (1.010524273)*(1) / (1.010524273 – 1) = 96.01843554 tropical years

    (2.369718033)*(2.116350524) / (2.369718033 – 2.116350524) = 19.7939903 tropical years

    So the factor of 4 from the BDO thread is demystified:
    (9.478543478) / 4 = 2.369635869 years

  180. oldbrew says:

    PV: 19 year Metonic cycle / 8 = 2.375, close to your final number (~99.77% match).

  181. oldbrew says:

    A Historic Perspective on the Greenland Ice Sheet and its Contribution to Global Sea Level

    ‘Clearly, therefore, there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about the current interglacial, including the present state of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Its estimated ice volume and contribution to mean global sea level reside well within their ranges of natural variability, and from the current looks of things, they are not likely to depart from those ranges any time soon.’

  182. Paul Vaughan says:

    The fresh air of honest realism:

    Climate modelers have ABSOLUTE ZERO CLUE when it comes to precipitation and the water cycle.

    SHAME SHAME SHAME for bullsh*tting otherwise nature-disrespecting climate scammers!

    Now that’s a refreshing article.

    Finally some sanity and good sense.

  183. oldbrew says:

    Re lunar nodal:
    (lunar nodal / lunar apsidal) x full moon cycle = 2.371~y (866.31d) = QBO or 2 Chandler wobbles

  184. Paul Vaughan says:

    Commentator “kim” (repeating “66“) has possibly seen the same report I’ve seen circulating through underground channels.

    Here’s what I recall:

    (66.00064984)*(11.06964992) / (66.00064984 – 11.06964992) = 13.30039667
    (66.00064984)*(11.06964992) / (66.00064984 + 11.06964992) = 9.479709962
    (66.00064984)*(11.06964992) / ( (66.00064984 + 11.06964992) / 2 ) = 18.95941992

    (9.479709962) / 4 = 2.36992749
    (9.479709962) / 8 = 1.184963745

    (29.447498)*(11.862615) / (29.447498 – 11.862615) = 19.86503587
    (19.86503587) / 2 = 9.932517933

    (9.932517933)*(9.479709962) / (9.932517933 – 9.479709962) = 207.9411034

    (1.184963745)*(1) / (1.184963745 – 1) = 6.406464921
    (1.184963745)*(1) / (1.184963745 + 1) = 0.542326502
    (1.184963745)*(1) / ( (1.184963745 + 1) / 2 ) = 1.084653004

    (1.084653004)*(1) / (1.084653004 – 1) = 12.81292984

    QBO harmonic nearest SAO (semi-annual oscillation) defines volatility attractor:
    (2.36992749) / 5 = 0.473985498
    (0.5)*(0.473985498) / (0.5 – 0.473985498) = 9.110024468

    9.110024468 harmonic nearest annual shapes next-level of hierarchical volatility structure:
    (9.110024468) / 9 = 1.012224941
    (1.012224941)*(1) / (1.012224941 – 1) = 82.7999864

    Note that 2*(82.7999864) = 165.5999728

    That’s the long JEV cycle:
    (11.862615)*(11.06964992) / (11.862615 – 11.06964992) = 165.5999728

    You won’t find a copy of the paper. The distribution is highly guarded (and never online). The info I have came through what I call “vital contacts” who never directly participate in the climate discussion.

    “kim” has made one serious error in her commentary: It’s not PDO.

  185. RoswellJohn says:

    There’s a nice site for scholarly articles called Scholarpedia. The article on Synchronization would be of interest to the Why Phi? participants.

    At this link:

  186. Paul Vaughan says:

    Whoops. Again I’m assuming (April 22, 2016 at 5:46 pm) people realize this vigilantly at all times by now, but I’ll clarify explicitly once more…

    BDO (bidecadal oscillation) =
    (29.447498)*(11.862615) / (29.447498 – 11.862615) = 19.86503587

    harmonic nearest 11.862615:
    (19.86503587) / 2 = 9.932517933

    (11.862615)*(9.932517933) / (11.862615 – 9.932517933) = 61.04648218

    I trust that at some point folks will start remembering…

    (165.5999728)*(61.04648218) / (165.5999728 – 61.04648218) = 96.69017963

    …which is mathematically the same as putting JEV & SEV together:

    (22.13929985)*(18.01449344) / (22.13929985 – 18.01449344) = 96.69017963

    Now if we could just get people to differentiate conceptually between means and volatility clustering… (sigh…)

  187. oldbrew says:

    Inside the ‘Heart-Shaped’ Sunspot – Plasma’s Magnetic Flow Captured | Video

    A Sunspot (AR2529), large enough to fit three Earth-sized planets, was monitored by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory during its Earth-facing rotation of the Sun’s surface. The magnetic imager aboard the solar probe captured detailed imagery of the plasma motion in and around the active region.

    Heart-Shaped Sunspot Fires Off Powerful Flare (Video)

  188. oldbrew says:

    Hubble discovers moon orbiting the dwarf planet Makemake

    ‘Makemake is one of five dwarf planets recognized by the International Astronomical Union.’

    “Makemake is in the class of rare Pluto-like objects, so finding a companion is important,” Parker said. “The discovery of this moon has given us an opportunity to study Makemake in far greater detail than we ever would have been able to without the companion.”

    S/2015 (136472) 1, nicknamed MK 2 by the discovery team, is the only known moon of the dwarf planet Makemake.

  189. oldbrew says:

    Alan Carlin: The Major Problems with the Climate Alarmist Narrative

    ‘In summary, the alarmist climate science is wrong, there is no evidence that the “problem” is likely to occur, the “solution” will hurt mainly the poor and accomplish little or nothing, and the goal (reduced CO2 emissions) is best achieved by government doing nothing except encouraging private markets to make energy use decisions.’

  190. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 18 now.


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