Suggestions-18

Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like.🙂

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 17

    [for viewing only please]

  2. Rossshire Mannie says:

    On SAtellite tv today In Europe “A Non-Sustainable Energy sTink”!” Here is something from the NDR Panorama 3 Program TOPIC from TODAY: See the re-play of TV Prog “Gewässer um Biogas-Anlage stark belastet” at https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/panorama3/Gewaesser-um-Biogas-Anlage-stark-belastet,panoramadrei2142.html Maybe other readers can fill-in the Detail

    I didn’t see it all, but I came in to a part which I thought was all about hammering the farmer again with his silage effluent: seems BIG INDUSTRY is cashing in on the act – was there a Practical Farmer amongst them when they made the Maize sourced BioGas ? – THere should never have been such a process that allows “toxic Runoff” Apologies for something different , but this entire Eco stuff gets my goat

  3. oldbrew says:

    Juno Overview – from NASA

    Unlocking Jupiter’s Secrets
    Juno will improve our understanding of the solar system’s beginnings by revealing the origin and evolution of Jupiter.
    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/juno/overview/index.html

    Due to reach Jupiter on 4th July.

  4. oldbrew says:

    The NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope has captured a striking new photo of a barred spiral galaxy called NGC 4394.
    http://www.sci-news.com/astronomy/hubble-barred-spiral-ngc4394-3830.html

  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    Pukite needs some help with biannual.

    Recall the existence of not only the YEAR but also the SEMI-ANNUAL OSCILLATION (SAO) and then by analogy explore aliasing of draconic (nodal).

    directional node:

    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 27.212221 is 28.095553
    (28.095553)*(27.212221) / (28.095553 – 27.212221) = 865.5210016 days
    (865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718033 tropical years

    harmonic of 182.6210945 nearest 27.212221 is 26.0887277857143
    (27.212221)*(26.08872779) / (27.212221 – 26.08872779) = 631.8972087 days
    (631.8972087) / 365.242189 = 1.730077269 tropical years

    (2.369718033)*(1.730077269) / (2.369718033 – 1.730077269) = 6.409527865
    (2.369718033)*(1.730077269) / (2.369718033 + 1.730077269) = 1
    (2.369718033)*(1.730077269) / ( (2.369718033 + 1.730077269) / 2 ) = 2 = harmonic mean

    non-directional node:

    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 13.6061105 is 13.5274884814815
    (13.6061105)*(13.52748848) / (13.6061105 – 13.52748848) = 2341.029988 days
    (2341.029988) / 365.242189 = 6.409527865 tropical years

    harmonic of 182.6210945 nearest 13.6061105 is 14.0477765
    (14.0477765)*(13.6061105) / (14.0477765 – 13.6061105) = 432.7605008 days
    (432.7605008) / 365.242189 = 1.184859016 tropical years

    (6.409527865)*(1.184859016) / (6.409527865 – 1.184859016) = 1.453563298
    (6.409527865)*(1.184859016) / (6.409527865 + 1.184859016) = 1
    (6.409527865)*(1.184859016) / ( (6.409527865 + 1.184859016) / 2 ) = 2 = harmonic mean

    2*(1.453563298) = 2.907126595

    It’s not possible to nail the 96 year volatility without SAO. (See tips on Suggestions-17.)

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s not possible to nail the 96 year volatility without SAO. (See tips on Suggestions-17.)

    Given the spatial & topological (circulatory) structure of variance, it’s crazy that people thought time-only Fourier methods would see the spatiotemporal volatility structure.

    Bias & volatility differ fundamentally. Conceptual step 1 is: Down with the false (culturally rather than logically based) assumptions.

    Changes in solar cycle length can bias the ENSO integral WITHOUT redefining the lunisolar volatility.

    Nevermind clear sky TSI with false assumptions of uniformity.
    That’s total BS (culturally based and not logical at all).

    ENSO’s a spatial swing.
    The orbits of Earth & Moon shape the extent of swinging.

    The changing length of the solar cycle pacemaker presses the cumulative amount of time in or out of metastable state WITHOUT redefining the lunisolar swing limits. (People are going to have a hard time with this because conventional thinking is mired in culturally-based false assumptions.)

    Again:
    Mean & variance
    are not the same thing.

    ENSO is about spatial variance.
    and so is solar cycle length change, but on a different axis.

    Because of inadequate methods
    conventional analyses are MIXING these modes, leading to interpretive fluster & bluster.

    Better sorting is feasible with hierarchical attention to spatio temporal aggregation.

    We need more bright, open-minded participants with the intense drive to transcend human limits without wasting time arguing. (Arguing steals 99% of free time from exploration, accomplishing nothing since climate discussion participants are immune to argument.)

    The foundations of 96:
    1. tropical year
    2. SAO
    3. QBO

    These cycles are accepted even by mainstream convention.

  7. Paul Vaughan says:

    (1.730077269)*(1.453563298) / (1.730077269 – 1.453563298) = 9.094574181 years

    harmonic of 9.094574181 nearest annual is 1.010508242
    (1.010508242)*(1) / (1.010508242 – 1) = 96.16339375 years

    related notes in connection with Bollinger (link)

  8. Paul Vaughan says:

    Libration (2.907126595) reminder:

    (2.907126595)*(2) / (2.907126595 – 2) = 6.409527865
    (2.907126595)*(2) / (2.907126595 + 2) = 1.184859016
    (2.907126595)*(2) / ( (2.907126595 + 2) / 2 ) = 2.369718033

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    A heads up for anyone trying to follow Pukite’s explorations:

    He keeps saying “6.5 years” for polar motion where it’s actually 6.4 years. The overestimate possibly comes from not accounting for the ~1930 phase reversal and/or the structure of phase estimate variance in the older portion of the record.

    Reminder:

    I’ve given cookbook recipes in the past — for example one’s here:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/11/15/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are-triggered-by-the-moon/#comment-92954

    It was here that we discussed 2.9 year libration & principal tide frequency algebra in AAM context:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/09/10/cheeky-pukitee-nicking-knowledge-without-acknowledgement/

    Deception on the solar cycle length differintegral is reaching epic proportions at wuwt. It’s time to start calling for bans of specific individuals by name. The campaign’s transparently based on false geometric assumptions. Recommendation: Clean house with a round of decisive, bold firings.

  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    96 year volatility is based on lunar nodes & the tropical year (that’s it — just those 2 things):
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-17/#comment-115638

    It’s conventional and simple.

    Deception Advisory:
    The solar cycle length differintegral is not shaped by lunisolar cycles.

    Stern, swift correction of counter-narratives trying to creatively harmonize with sun-climate belief policing is advised, as it only unhelpfully signals surrender to the malign tactic of engineering narratives based on false geometric assumptions (the favored tactic of clever dark agents).

  11. RJ Salvador says:

    This has a causal clarity that is truly beautiful.

    Ian Wilson posted this on WUWT over the cause of earths temperature changes. It is lost on that crowd.

    “Yes, because it is right in front of your collective noses – but you just don’t want to see it!

    It is the lunar tidal modulation of the seasonal variations in the solar flux.
    In the long term, this is coupled with the hemispherical asymmetry of the Earth’s surface properties (i.e. Nth Hemisphere – dominated by continents, St Hemisphere – dominated by oceans).

    On inter-annual time scales

    There are periodic slow downs in the Earth’s rotation rate every 13.66 days. These slows downs are caused by the passage of the lunar tidal bulge across the Earth’s equator once every half lunar tropical month = 13. 66 days. The ratio in the magnitude of the increase in Length Of Day (LOD) at one crossing with respect to the magnitude of the increase in LOD at the next is primarily governed by the orientation of the lunar line-of-apse with respect to the seasonal cycle as marked by the solstices and equinoxes (there is also a secondary effect caused by the 5 degree tilt of lunar obit with respect to the ecliptic). Please see:

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2016/03/there-is-natural-gleissberg-like-cycle.html

    On decadal time scales

    The climate variation is driven by the ratio in strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events – This is dominated by the 31/62 year lunar tidal cycle. For 31 years, El Ninos start in years when lunar line-of-apse is pointed at the Sun near the Winter/Summer solstices, then for next 31 years, El Ninos start in years when lunar line-of-apse is pointed at the Sun near the Vernal/Autumnal equinoxes.

    On centennial to millennial time scales

    The climate variation appear to be correlated with variations in the overall strength of the Sun’s magnetic field as indicated by Be10 and C14 proxies. These primarily occur at 88.5 years (Gleissberg cycle), 208 years (de Vries Cycle), 354 years, 510 years, 708 years, 980 years (Eddy Cycle) and 2300 years (Hallstatt Cycle). It just so happens that these cycles in the Sun’s magnetic field strength are matched by the times at which the lunar line-of-apse points at the Sun at either the solstices or equinoxes of the Earth’s seasonal calendar (in a reference frame that is fixed with the Earth’s orbit).

    This produces a long term 21,000 year climate forcing which when coupled with the Milankovitch orbital forcings and the formation and melting of ice sheets at the Earth’s poles, produces the ice-age cycles.”

  12. RJ Salvador says:

    The sun heats, the moon stirs and the earths surface irregularities confounds the experts.

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    harmonic of QBO nearest semi-annual:
    (2.369718033) / 5 = 0.473943607
    (0.5)*(0.473943607) / (0.5 – 0.473943607) = 9.094574181 years

    harmonic of 9.094574181 nearest annual:
    (9.094574181) / 9 = 1.010508242
    (1.010508242)*(1) / (1.010508242 – 1) = 96.16339375 years

    The solar cycle length differintegral is a separate mode of spatiotemporal variance.

    Blog hosts (particularly in the US where dark agency is epidemic) should round up and with no apologies boot out commentators pushing narratives based on deliberately false geometric assumptions.

    Intense desire to keep the discussion divided along political party lines in the US is corrupting the whole international climate discussion. The first thing we need to do in the rest of the world is distance ourselves from narratives deliberately based on false geometric assumptions. It’s a dirty old tactic creeping towards eventual death.

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    RJ, the sun stirs too, by way of asymmetric terrestrial response. You had the term in your model and I helped ID it. Folks willing & able to be sensible (rare these days) can’t escape the math. The american blogs are corrupt. Shying away from speaking the truth about this isn’t doing the world a favor. I know sometimes it’s tempting to surrender to corruption just to avoid trouble. The terrestrial surface encountered by sunlight isn’t uniform. It’s differential and differential implies flow. We don’t need to measure every turbulent eddy to recognize the easily-deduced aggregate constraint (the solar cycle length differintegral, which should not be confused with misrepresented (why this is being done I can’t tell you) 34.25804894 year lunisolar envelopes).

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    Caution: As we’ve been over before in exhaustive detail, 31/62 isn’t enduring. It holds for some cycles and then slips. I outlined and illustrated the length of the attractor on past Talkshop threads where we went over the conceptual differences between event series and attractors.

    Tip: The artificial pedestal gods at wuwt cannot be appeased — even by trying to engineer alternative lunisolar narratives as a false work-around for their sun-climate deception. The only way to deal with people like that is to walk away.

  16. Paul Vaughan says:

    I recommend to Tallbloke that moving forward anyone who comments at wuwt be banned from commenting at the Talkshop.

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    I dug these out:

    As you can see, the perigee-syzygy-year alignment events go

    either
    ( 31 + 31 + 31 + 44 ) / 4 = 34.25 years

    or
    ( 31 + 31 + 31 + ( 31 + 13 ) ) / 4 = 34.25 years

    Note the 243 year cycle.

    The slips have to be included in any sensible narrative.

    But climate & EOP records point to the nodes & the tropical year (QBO & centennial).
    Multidecadal is solar cycle length differintegral.

    When I looked at that 243 & 34.25 stuff I developed a tool that could exhaustively explore and intuitively illustrate every imaginable combination of lunisolar events. I cataloged them and documented the frequency algebra.

    May & November are the key months for ENSO. I’ve seen NO evidence to support the suggestion that the key ENSO months shift by 6 months periodically.

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    From the “I bet people have forgotten” file:
    Maybe it’s time for a review of semi-annual cycles in the IndoPacific Warm Pool…

  19. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s a link back in case anyone’s looking for envelope frequency algebra derivations:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/ian-wilson-are-the-strongest-lunar-perigean-spring-tides-commensurate-with-the-transit-cycle-of-venus/

    Moving forward I’ll probably deliberately stick to just nodal (without saying why).

    Now, getting back on track:

    Does everyone remember the IPWP SAO (generously assuming all knew about it to begin with)? I think there were some Harry van Loon precipitation, pressure, & wind links (with a lot of southern focus) and then some ensuing KNMI Climate Exploration of various semi-annual oscillations.

    Of course there’s another SAO up by the QBO too and that’s the one really demanding our focus now, but maybe more generally it’s first time to just realize there are things on Earth that bounce semi-annually.

    Why wouldn’t the SAO alias draconic analogously to how the year does? And look on the map right where Harry pointed us and what do you see in EOF3? OK… so that’s where 9 & 96 come from… (It’s many orders of magnitude simpler than everyone thought….)

  20. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s one of those graphs:

    Hmm… It draws my attention to 1950, 1981, & 1996 …

    Now, trying to remember… What were those coordinates with heavy semi-annnual precipitation?…

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    This should do:

    See figures 4 & 5.
    Gain key spatial pattern insight by comparing maps of (a) January/July SAO & (b) April/October SAO:

    Chen, T.-C.; & Wu, K.-D. (1992). Semi-annual oscillation of the global divergent circulation. Tellus 44A, 357-365.
    http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/viewFile/14967/16781

    …And recall figures 3 & 4 here:

    Chen, G.; Qian, C.; Zhang, C. (2012). New insights into annual and semiannual cycles of sea level pressure. Monthly Weather Review 140, 1347-1355.
    http://home.fau.edu/czhang3/web/2012ChenZhang_MWR.pdf

    A lot of climate models omit the SAO (…and thus 9 & 96).

    I’ll stop there for now.

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    When I pointed to it before, the response was dead flat.

    Chen & Wu (1992) is actually a BIG deal.
    It’s prerequisite to fathoming SST EOFs.

    I’m thankful to Harry van Loon for pointing to this KEY missing link.
    I knew it was important at the time, but I now appreciate and understand that it’s orders of magnitude more important than I realized back then when I just thought it was important.

  23. Paul Vaughan says:

    Alert:
    There’s no chance — NO chance whatsoever — that climate models can get multidecadal & centennial components of SST right without realistic SAO.

    This is a big, BIG deal.
    I advise everyone to read Chen & Wu (1992) for deep understanding.

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    Reminder for ozone fans:
    Semiannual accounts for 6% of column ozone variations:

  25. Paul Vaughan says:

    RJ: Your model captured (crudely estimated) solar cycle deceleration because sunspot numbers (red below) so closely match solar cycle phase (yellow below). THAT (not 31/62) ‘S multidecadal.

  26. oldbrew says:

    VISIONS-2
    Also slated to launch in 2018 is VISIONS-2, short for Visualizing Ion Outflow via Neutral Atom Sensing-2, which is specifically designed to investigate the outflow of oxygen ions from Earth’s upper atmosphere and into the magnetosphere.

    Unlike it predecessor—VISIONS-1 that observed the outflow at night from the polar auroral zones—this mission will observe the phenomenon during the day from Earth’s magnetic cusps—regions in the magnetic cocoon near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field lines dip down toward the ground. These regions are the strongest source of outflowing ions, said VISIONS-2 Principal Investigator Doug Rowland, a Goddard scientist.

    With this information, scientists hope to better understand the physics that influence Earth’s magnetosphere. This is particularly important because this is where most space assets, including communications satellites, reside and such satellites are sensitive to severe space weather caused by the solar wind. Furthermore, the processes that heat and energize oxygen ions in the atmosphere are universal in nature.

    “These oxygen ions come and go in episodic bursts,” Rowland said. “When they are present, which is not all the time, they have dramatic effects on near-Earth space. Among other things, they can affect the rate at which solar-wind energy is transferred to the magnetosphere, and the rate and details of how this stored energy is released to produce aurora,” the display of lights seen typically at the poles, he added.

    In addition, a better understanding of the outflow could shed light on why Mars, which has a very weak magnetic field, is losing its atmosphere, while Venus, which has no magnetic field at all, remains enshrouded in a thick atmosphere. [bold added]

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-05-nasa-sounding-rocket-missions-explore-coronal.html

    Then ask: if Earth needs a magnetosphere to deflect the solar wind and protect its atmosphere, why does Venus – nearer to the Sun and with no magnetosphere to speak of – have a much thicker atmosphere than Earth?

  27. oldbrew says:

    Pluto’s interactions with the solar wind are unique, study finds

    “We’ve now visited all nine of the classical planets and examined all their solar wind interactions, and we’ve never seen anything like this.”

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-05-pluto-interactions-solar-unique.html

    Maybe because Pluto is very small? The Moon is bigger.
    http://www.arcadiastreet.com/cgvistas/pluto_0050.htm

  28. Paul Vaughan says:

    “31/62” may have some role in climate. (I welcome graphical presentation of quantitatively-indexed empirical suggestions — no words needed.)

    But it’s not a match with the classic multidecadal component of climate, which perfectly matches the solar cycle length differintegral. (Do the diagnostics firsthand to see.)

    Widespread savage ignorance of SAO is obstructing discussion progress (much to the delight of sun-climate belief-cops at the american venues I’m sure).

  29. oldbrew says:

    Has Human Induced Climate Change Caused California Drought?

    Cheng et al. conclude that “the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less [our emphasis] likely and that the current severe impacts of drought on California’s agriculture have not been substantially caused by long-term [such as historical CO2-induced] climate changes.”
    http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/may/a4.php

    Climate catastrophists take note🙂

  30. Ian Wilson says:

    Paul,

    You are right in pointing out that the 31/62 year lunar cycle is an event series, however, even a cursory look at the ephemerides shows that it does endure. I cannot go into great detail at this point but if you uses mean values for lunar orbital parameters e.g.

    anomalistic month = 27.55455 days
    synodic month = 29.5305889 days

    you can show that (under these very limited assumptions) that there is a

    88.5/177.0/265.5/354.0

    alignment pattern if you look at times where the lunar-line of apse points the Sun at the solstices and equinoxes.

    The point that the 31/62 year short-term event series comes into play is when you realize that

    177.0 + 31.0 years = 208.0 year

    and you link into the Gleissberg de Vries Cycle.

  31. Ian Wilson says:

    Sorry that should have been de Vries cycle.

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    “88.5/177.0/265.5/354.0”

    I remember seeing that stuff when exploring with the lunisolar exploration tool I built.
    _

    If you want to say “31/62” “endures”, then ok: It “endures” with slips. It doesn’t match multidecadal SST, but maybe it matches some other feature(s) of climate.

    _

    The nodal stuff is what really convincingly nails climate & EOP records. The 96 year volatility cycle is just fascinating. It’s built of only the tropical year and the draconic (nodal) cycle. Brutishly simple — and so pronounced in the climate record.

    This tells EXACTLY why time-only Fourier methods HARD-FAIL to detect spatiotemporal volatility cycles. This is fundamental stuff about aggregation criteria. It tells us that because of the combination of spatial circulatory loops and energy transformations in the climate system, the high frequency components are distorted, but the signal can be recovered with higher awareness of volatility limits and their (unlooped) roots.

    I find this stuff just absolutely nourishing to explore because it’s cutting into new territory conceptually. A complete theory of spatiotemporal chaos hasn’t been developed yet. We’re pioneering. It’s virgin territory from a human perspective. It’s just so wonderful to have gotten past all of that confrontation about Fourier methods and to have reached the pinnacle from where it’s clear what they’re not doing and what can do what they can’t.

    It’s such clarity with hindsight. I was confident all along, but now I understand exactly why others didn’t understand …for example the solar terrestrial weave, the corrupt reaction to which made me more angry than (just about) any other thing in my entire life.

    Spatiotemporal theoretical pioneers will have a simple starting point: how to map temporal volatility attractors that are spatially distorted by topological loops. It’s beautiful, simple stuff.

    One day we will actually be able to use the process of elimination to trace those loops. That is going to be some very satisfying field work, because it’s a multi-axial balanced differential and at the beginning all the field workers will have to work with is a joint constraint analogous to a+b+c+d=constant.

    We’ll probably be gone by the time the pursuits mature to that level, but it’s nourishing just to see where it’s going.

    In the short term I think it will be simpler to start the mainstream on nodal-only. They have no aggregation criteria foundations. This is completely alien territory even for genius quantitative experts because THERE ARE NO EXPERTS in this field yet. There’s no one they can go to for terminology, training, cultural & technical reassurance, etc.

    If sufficiently free of prejudice and capable of sober, careful judgement, a few luminaries will get it on their own if some of the seminal examples are kept simple and clean. The solar terrestrial weave will qualify and I believe some of the nodal stuff will also be simple enough for luminary lights to flip on without help from anyone.

    This is rewarding stuff. Some people are going to have a lot of fun writing spatiotemporal algorithms that will be able to form a basis for AI navigation in fluids. This isn’t just about climate. There will be very serious engineering applications, including military. Having the right algorithms will literally be life and death.

    Given the constraints on my life, all I’ll ever have time to do is touch the perimeter of where this will go, but it’s still interesting and fun because it’s new territory.

  33. oldbrew says:

    Tim Cullen has an interesting series of posts on vitrified hill forts, starting with:
    http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2016/05/04/vitrified-forts-lunar-society-of-birmingham/

    Vitrification requires very high temperatures , well over 1000 degrees C.
    Arthur C Clarke reckoned they would have needed to burn half the trees in Scotland to account for all the vitrified ruins found there, which obviously seems unlikely.

  34. Ian Wilson says:

    You also might want to consider that there is a defacto 13 year lunar tidal cycle created by the difference between 31 perigee/syzygy cycle and the 18 year Saros cycle, such that:

    13 years = 31 – 18 years

    so that

    16 x 13 years = 208 years.

    Now the reason for the 18.03 sidereal year Saros cycle is:

    223 Synodic months______= 18.02931 sidereal years
    239 anomalistic months___ = 18.02990 sidereal years
    242 Draconic months______= 18.02941 sidereal years
    [with closest alignment between Synodic and Draconic cycles,
    though the anomalistic cycle is not far off]

    while the reason for the 31 year cycle is:

    383.5 Synodic months______= 31.005568 sidereal years
    411.0 anomalistic months___ = 31.005401 sidereal years
    416.0 Draconic months_____= 30.992708 sidereal years
    [with closest alignment between Synodic and anomalistic cycles]

    hence, the defacto 13 year cycle possibly comes about because:

    160.5 Synodic months______= 12.976254 sidereal years
    172.0 anomalistic months___= 12.9754963 sidereal years
    174.0 Draconic months_____= 12.9632963 sidereal years
    [with closest alignment between Synodic and anomalistic cycles]

    Thus, this would indicate that a possible reason for the ~ 208 de Vries cycle is:

    16 x 160.5 = 2568.0 Synodic cycles________= 207.6200718 sidereal years
    16 x 172.0 = 2752.0 anomalistic cycles_____= 207.6079414 sidereal years
    16 x 174.0 = 2784.0 Draconic cycles_______= 207.4127406 sidereal years
    or with a drift of 3.0 Draconic cycles in roughly 208 years you get:
    2787.0 Draconic cycles_______= 207.6362457 sidereal years

    [with closest alignment between Synodic and anomalistic cycles]

    Finally, if you allow for a slight drift of 4.5 Synodic cycles and 5.0 anomalistic and
    Draconic cycles you get:

    2572.5 Synodic cycles___= 207.98389 sidereal yrs = 207.99196 tropical yrs
    2757.0 anomalistic cycles_= 207.98514 sidereal yrs = 207.99321 tropical yrs
    2792.0 Draconic cycles___= 208.00875 sidereal yrs = 208.01682 tropical yrs

  35. Ian Wilson says:

    Of course, the drift required to realign the sidereal/tropical reference frame with the seasonal
    year of:

    4.5 synodic = 5.0 anomalistic = 5.0 Draconic cycles over 208 tropical years

    is not arbitrary since this is equivalent to:

    132.887 days in 75970.375 days = 0.0017492 of a full cycle in 208 tropical years.

    which for the Earth’s orbit is 0.6297133 degrees in 208.0 tropical years

    or

    10.90 ~ 11 arc second per tropical year!

    This is just the (pro-grade) rate of precession of the perihelion of the Earth’s orbit witch is currently
    about:

    11.45 arc seconds per year – theoretical
    11.62 arc seconds per year – observed epoch 2000

  36. Ian Wilson says:

    In other words, the when the perigee of the lunar orbit points at the Sun it will realign with the seasons in (almost) precisely 208.0 +/- 0.008 tropical years (= 1.0 de Vries Cycle), if you measure it in a reference frame that is fixed with the Earth’s orbit (i.e. a frame that is tracking the perihelion precession of the Earth’s orbit).

  37. TLMango says:

    In my research, I wanted to piece together all the major cycles
    creating a big picture that would somehow lead to a breakthrough.
    I’ve had some huge success with the planets, but not with the moon.
    Attempts to reproduce lunar cycles using planetary cycles and the
    synodic formula have failed for me. This makes sense now, the sun tugs
    on the earth and the earth tugs on the moon. So… the moon is somewhat
    distanced from the actual physical mechanism, the motion of the sun.
    Just slightly distanced, just enough to cause head-aches.

    Thanks Ian for your work with the lunar cycles, it’s kept me from going
    off track.

  38. oldbrew says:

    Earth’s new lightning capital revealed
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/05/03/earths-new-lightning-capital-revealed/

    “Lake Maracaibo has a unique geography and climatology that is ideal for the development of thunderstorms,” said Dennis Buechler with the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

    Mr Buechler noted that Lake Maracaibo is not new to lightning researchers. Located in northwest Venezuela along part of the Andes Mountains, it is the largest lake in South America. Storms commonly form there at night as mountain breezes develop and converge over the warm, moist air over the lake. These unique conditions contribute to the development of persistent deep convection resulting in an average of 297 nocturnal thunderstorms per year, peaking in September.

  39. oldbrew says:

    From 1998: NASA’s Polar Spacecraft Images Remarkable “Coastline Auroras”
    http://www-pi.physics.uiowa.edu/vis-data/coastlines/

  40. oldbrew says:

    Tony Heller: Troposphere temperatures are very closely tied to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) ocean circulation. The correlation is almost perfect.

    http://realclimatescience.com/2016/05/real-climate-science/

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    Typo:

    “Wind controls AMO and sun controls AMO.”

    should read

    Wind controls AMO and sun controls wind.

    (in vanished comment just posted)

  42. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB (May 9, 2016 at 10:22 am) wrote:

    “Tony Heller: Troposphere temperatures are very closely tied to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) ocean circulation. The correlation is almost perfect.”

    There’s the daily reminder of what we all learned on day 1.
    However, this quote from the article is wrong:

    “However, there are a few real scientists working on climate, and I was fortunate to have spent time with one who actually did understand how the climate worked. Dr. Bill Gray from CSU spent many hours explaining to me how ocean cycles drive the climate, and how they are driven in turn by cyclical changes in ocean salinty. Bill’s theory in a nutshell was that evaporation in the warm, sunny mid-Atlantic increases the salinity of the water there. As the salinity increases, the water becomes increasingly dense and eventually starts to dive down towards the colder sea floor – forcing colder, less saline water to the surface. This process repeats continuously, driving the AMO and other ocean currents. Bill’s success as a tropical meteorologist and hurricane forecaster was largely due to his understanding of the AMO.”

    Bill Illis and others (e.g. Rial, Loziers, & Wunsch) have set us straight on that:

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/01/24/bill-illis-formation-of-the-amoc-not-linked-to-greenland-meltwater/

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/03/14/paul-vaughan-wind-is-an-dominant-player-in-climate-variation/

    Wind controls AMO and sun controls wind.
    The multidecadal “ocean cycles” narrative makes no sense without sun-driven wind.

    Oceans respond.
    The oceans themselves are a source of neither geothermal nor solar heat.

    Talk of “ocean cycles” is half-baked.
    The response half is included, but not the driver.

    Spatial pattern anomaly-think isn’t helping if absolute equator-pole temperature gradients are ignored.

  43. Paul Vaughan says:

    I figured out why my comments vanished:

    r_e_a_l_c_l_i_m_a_t_e = spam-filter trigger

    (We’re not able to link to the new site because it shares part of its address with the older site.)

  44. oldbrew says:

    ‘Bill’s [i.e. Dr. Bill Gray’s] theory in a nutshell was that evaporation in the warm, sunny mid-Atlantic increases the salinity of the water there.’

    Evaporation due to sun and wind presumably?

    PV: ‘Wind controls AMO and sun controls wind.’

  45. Paul Vaughan says:

    Submarines will be less safe if lunisolar’s cracked in public …so the responsible thing to do is crack ONLY THE ENVELOPES and NOT their details. This way we can make PROOFS about climate without jeopardizing military security.

    No lightning strikes in Fort McMurray. I’ve heard it suggested more than once that someone wanting revenge on oilsands workers lit the forest fire. The Canadian government has been caught allowing politics to interfere with humanitarian efforts by delaying Russia’s offer over worries about Crimea optics. I remember that despite differences, China sent a medical ship to the Philippines after the hurricane. Political differences should be sorted out some other time. Now the Canadian government will be subject to the legitimate criticism that it didn’t do everything possible to protect life & property.

    Everyone’s human. Bill Illis made a mistake in a comment at wuwt today (on wind).

  46. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, I’m not really sure but my instinct is that people are screwing up their thinking by slipping back & forth between thinking in anomalies and thinking in absolutes. Wind is a function of absolutes.

    Also unhelpful may be failure to distinguish the east-west axis from the equator-pole axis. Lunisolar influence on the east-west axis is crystal clear and solar cycle length differintegral influence on the north-south axis is crystal clear. What isn’t crystal clear is what to do about the sloppy thinking dominating climate discussion. It’s starting to get heartily funny that people don’t yet get SCL differintegral & 96 volatility.

    Keep an eye on Pukite. If he ignores SAO that’s a CLEAR sign.

    Be sure to review the sea ice video Bill Illis linked to — the icicles of death video.
    …but (regarding his newer comments of today) Bill Illis should review Jean Dickey’s paper on thermal wind and take Jose Rial’s advice on coupled differintegral coherence.

  47. oldbrew says:

    PV refers to ‘the 96 year volatility’.

    Note that 16 lunar wobbles take just under 96 years, as do 81 Chandler wobbles.
    So 2^4 LW = 3^4 CW — a ‘fourth power’ correlation of wobbles.

    60 Venus-Earth conjunctions also take just under 96 years (5 V-E = ~ 8y).
    13 Hale cycles would be about 3 x 96y.

  48. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’m flagging this up for more scrutiny for reasons that will become obvious moving forward:

    “For 31 years, El Ninos start in years when lunar line-of-apse is pointed at the Sun near the Winter/Summer solstices, then for next 31 years, El Ninos start in years when lunar line-of-apse is pointed at the Sun near the Vernal/Autumnal equinoxes.” — Ian Wilson

    Suggestion for anyone interested:

    Ian Wilson’s suggestion is easily quantified and graphed, INCLUDING times when there’s slip (and dramatically reduced amplitude) of 31 on the 243 frame.

    I’m planning on coming back to this when the time is right. Right now I judge the climate discussion audience to be decisively not ready to recognize (never even mind accept) the point, so I’m not wasting my time on this but rather going hiking & sea-kayaking…

    cheers

  49. Paul Vaughan says:

    Acknowledgment you might have become conditioned to not expect…

    For the most part I’m willing to say Eric Worrall — despite questionably associating with people engaged in unethical sun-climate belief-policing — often succeeds in making eminently sensible points, for example:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/10/huff-post-thinks-nuclear-war-might-do-more-damage-than-global-warming/

    “Robock’s all-out-war scenario shows cooling by about 20°C (36°F) in much of the core farming regions of the U.S., Europe, Russia and China (by 35°C in parts of Russia) for the first two summers — you don’t need to be a master farmer to figure out what freezing summers would do to food supply.”

    Terrestrial response to the SCL differintegral points to a security need for a practical alliance of US, Europe, Russia & China to maintain global stability.

    When it comes to security, the thinking needs to be more cleanly tactical. Get the f*****d up politics under submission to survival-first security & stability.

    It’s ironic that Worrall is associated with belief-police who are working against global security & stability, but perhaps he is an enlightened man… (we’ll see if he can help with stability corrections….)

  50. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’m flagging this important Bill Illis miscalculation (proves he’s human despite almost always being right) for correction when/if time permits:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/09/the-cause-of-a-record-warm-el-nino-year-leftovers/#comment-2210887

    I recommend everyone have a careful read of what he says about ENSO (and more importantly what he doesn’t say).

  51. Paul Vaughan says:

    From OB’s AMO link also …

    They highlight this from the 1895 article:

    ” From long extended observations in various quarters of the globe he became impressed with the part played by ocean currents in the distribution of heat, and the consequent modification of climate,”

    They STOPPED the highlighting exactly where they should have STARTED it:

    “[…] and he points out that a comparatively slight change in the configuration of the continents would suffice to change these currents greatly. He is of the opinion that the factor has received too little consideration […]” [bold added]

    Half a 243 year cycle ago they knew. ( 2016 – 1895 ~= 243 / 2 )
    We can’t ignore the spatial dimensions.

    Someone should arrange some funding for Scafetta, JoNova+Evans, & whoever else TO INCLUDE SPATIAL DIMENSIONS in sun-climate explorations. I keep looking for maps and searching pages for “spatial” — nothing yet… (still waiting… the day will come…)

  52. oldbrew says:

    Meteorologist Predicts Atlantic Cooling

    Something significant is occurring in the Atlantic Ocean, according to meteorologist Paul Dorian of US weather forecast service Vencore Weather – Atlantic cooling.
    http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/10/atlantic-cooling/

  53. oldbrew says:

    COURT RULES WHITE HOUSE SCIENCE OFFICE IN “BAD FAITH”

    CEI Gets Discovery in FOIA Case on Global Warming Docs
    http://junkscience.com/2016/05/court-rules-white-house-science-office-in-bad-faith/

    CEI General Counsel Sam Kazman said, “As OSTP’s course of action here demonstrates, there’s a clear pattern when it comes to this Administration: In dealing with global warming issues, agencies tend to act illegally. In short, global warming poses a risk to the rule of law.”

  54. oldbrew says:

    There never was a “hole in the ozone”: That was “a practice run for global warming”
    TIM BALL
    http://www.therebel.media/there_never_was_a_hole_in_the_ozone

  55. oldbrew says:

    What climate problem?

    Monckton: IPCC climate models speeding out of control compared to real world
    http://joannenova.com.au/2016/05/monckton-ipcc-climate-models-speeding-out-of-control-compared-to-real-world/#more-48767

  56. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve been running some diagnostics on sunspot number adjustments.

    I suspect that whoever is doing the adjustments knows just enough about measurements of cycle length to crudely mess with it.

    However, it’s really clear that their understanding is rudimentary, because the adjustments they’ve introduced to mess with cycle length statistics are systematically biased.

    The prospects for correcting for these systematically biased adjustments look good moving forward (as more distortions are added to the record). (They’ll have to recruit people with more advanced skills into their distortion group if they are to outfox explorers.)

    Their camouflaging strategy is 2 prong:
    Move both ERSST & SCL differintegral (to double the rate at which their shared properties appear to diverge).

    This is a bold rewrite.

    I have a grand suspicion (something I can’t and won’t say at this time) about the infilling techniques used in some of the versions of ERSST. The diagnostic trail is pointing clearly in that direction. It’s epic distortion — on steroids.

    In strategizing about how to deal with this corruption we have to coldly put aside all destabilizing emotional impulses and be dead sober: They will never back down, no matter what. This is a core interest for them. Administrative framing that would cause them to back down is strictly impossible. They will accept nothing as proof. That narrows the field of possible effective correction strategies. A solution other than administrative proof is necessary given their quantitatively verified absolute commitment to deviance. (They believe they have noble cause. Their commitment cannot and will not be shaken with logic.) We’re dealing with exceedingly & exceptionally twisted intelligent parties. Straight dealings are conclusively ruled out as a possible avenue. We must have respect for how intelligent they are and take it seriously without allowing it to shake our nerves as they intend.

    An administrative solution to absolute deviance isn’t feasible. Simpler means are needed.

    Sincerely

  57. Paul Vaughan says:

    Spatiotemporal pattern differs from naive human assumptions… (sarc) who would have thought!? (/sarc)

    =
    […] deep waters […] once thought to be barren deeps – can have a greater density of some species than shallower and warmer waters.

    […] on land and in shallow oceans, biodiversity tends to peak in the tropics, but for the brittle stars, they found dense concentrations in areas such as the deep and frigid oceans […]

    “You tended to get the highest number of species at the mid latitudes,” he explained. “Places like the central and North Atlantic or New Zealand, places quite far from the equator.”

    The density of the brittle stars thriving in the lightless waters of the deeps may be linked to areas where plankton production is raining chemical energy into the ecosystem, says the biologist.

    “This is the first test as to how well those hypotheses explain biodiversity in the deep ocean,” he said.

    The scientists say the seasonal cycles in the northern and southern hemispheres spark natural cycles that produce large-scale algal blooms in the spring and fall.

    During the process, the plankton produced on the surface clump together and the energy-rich particles then cascade to the bottom of the oceans like marine snowfall, providing nutrients to the sea life that may be over two kilometres deep.

    […] the science team is hoping that as more data from around the world is collected, global maps of seafloor diversity will continue to become more detailed and cover a wider range of marine life.
    =

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/scientists-find-surprising-varieties-of-life-while-mapping-deep-oceans-1.2898730
    .
    .
    There’s a discontinuity in their aggregation (look at 2000m depth) that cannot be explained by the scale-change (between panels) alone, but despite this nitpicking, the general pattern’s clear.

    “Figure 2: Estimated mean ophiuroid species richness plot as a function of depth and latitude.”

    I know there’s interest in plankton in climate discussion.
    This underscores the spatiotemporal pattern.

    something for plankton fans …and also for North Atlantic fans:

    “Figure 1: Global patterns of ophiuroid species richness.”

    a good day for North Atlantic plankton fans
    .
    .
    Political tools in the audience are directed by the belief-cops over at wuwt to go back to assuming the sun has uniform impact on Earth, as that is the only way to keep an authoritarian narrative on track.

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    Clarification: Panels a, b, & c of Figure’s 1 & 2 above correspond to the same depth ranges.
    …so there’s a lot of plankton rain the in the North Atlantic (panel c).

    Recall the work of Jose Rial on differintegral structure. Sensible interpretation is NOT feasible in a time-only reference frame. Sensible interpretation is only feasible in a SPATIOtemporal reference frame due to evolving circulatory topology.

    The arteries and veins doN’T stay locked in one configuration!!

    Humans are too inclined to assume a static architecture.

    This beast reconfigures itself. There’s a degree of flow re-lacing freedom, even when at human timescales continents appear to be sitting still.

    The volatility structures may be static while the spatial biases are not.

    No Fourier time-only method can see that. Vision requires a more generalized approach due to the spatial re-lacing (circulatory topology).

    Then it’s easier to partition gravitational from thermal (tides).

    Gravitational factors have fixed (actually predictably osculating) periods, whereas the thermal factors SHIFT frequency to produce the now-familiar differintegral structure resisted by today’s (maybe not tomorrow’s) authoritarian regime.

    The lacing is related to surfacing and precipitating pockets of stored energy (or lack thereof), but today’s surfacing pockets are a function of yesterday’s flow, necessitating more holistic vision. The chicken-egg coupling is an internal feature; it’s not a driver. All it can ever amount to is bounces (volatility) around the thermal spatiotemporal attractor.

    To buy into the belief-cop narrative, one would have to accept that the gradients caused by differential land-ocean heating via insolation would NOT cause flow …so in other words you have to be a political tool of an authoritarian regime to go along with that (untenably physically flowless social construction). Here’s a reminder of the average differintegral structure:

    LAND-OCEAN PHASING & AMPLITUDE:

  59. Paul Vaughan says:

    Now, for lunisolar (gravitational tide) explorers who may (in their devotion to fixed frequencies) be (more than) a little slow at connecting the solar (thermal tide) dots…

    Note on the image just-above the following:

    “Blank (white) = where annual cycle is less than 80% of variance”

    Ok?
    Got it?

    Now go back to look at the SAO divergence / convergence map in Chen & Wu (1992) (Figure 3).

    QBO’s not being ignored.
    The year’s not being ignored.

    Why is SAO being ignored??

    I can tell you: It’s because the implications of SAO inclusion are too politically inconvenient.

    The integrity of any lunisolar exploration chronically failing to underscore SAO is bust.

    Failing to underscore SAO is a clear sign of political agenda.

    Something I’m wondering (I’ve never checked):
    What mention does IPCC make of SAO? If anyone knows, please point to it, quote it, link to the graphs, etc., etc., etc. and please be thorough. I’m quite curious …and anticipating a good, hearty laugh.

    Cue the funding for corrupt researchers proposing to prove SAO is zero-sum (as if!!!) Lol…

  60. Ed says:

    Paul,
    Sorry for being thick, but you have lost me again here.
    I looked at “SAO divergence / convergence map in Chen & Wu (1992) (Figure 3)” and I read the paper but I just cannot quite see what you are pointing to.
    Perhaps you (or someone else that understands this) could add a few words of explanation about the basis, importance and implications of the SAO.
    Once again, thanks in advance . .

  61. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’m flagging up this comment on the Laschamp Event for future exploration (no time to look into it anytime soon):

    http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/11/peer-review-veteran-peer-review-has-lots-of-problems-tends-to-stifle-non-dogmatic-thinking/#comment-1103900

  62. oldbrew says:

    ‘ the mechanism responsible for decadal variations in the strength of the SAO presently remains unknown’

    THE SEMI-ANNUAL OSCILLATION AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE.
    PART 3: THE ROLE OF NEAR-SURFACE WIND SPEED AND CLOUDINESS (1999)
    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~broek112/home.php_files/Publications_MvdB/2000a_vdBroeke_IJC.pdf

    ‘This study has demonstrated that GCMs struggle to capture aspects of the SAO while showing a strong tendency toward the SAM.’ (2010) – cites van den Broeke
    [GCM = global climate model]

    The Southern Hemisphere semiannual oscillation and circulation variability during the Mid-Holocene
    http://www.clim-past.net/6/415/2010/cp-6-415-2010.pdf

  63. Oldmank says:

    Paul V link is a ‘must read’. At the end of it is another link to this:

    http://www.firstthings.com/article/2016/05/scientific-regress#sthash.WLDrfv8c.dpuf

    Read it when you’re calm and have the time to go through it all. Its not that you didn’t know, but the extent of it is—–.

    Extract: “Many ancient astronomers believed the heliocentric model of the solar system before it was supplanted by the geocentric theory of Ptolemy. ” Do not forget Galileo, and his maverick peers.

    And “At its best, science is a human enterprise with a superhuman aim: the discovery of regularities in the order of nature, and the discerning of the consequences of those regularities.” Well, amen. The author is – quote article: “William A. Wilson is a software engineer in the San Francisco Bay Area.”

  64. oldbrew says:

    Oldman: to some extent ‘sexed-up’ science is distorting the whole field. We see that in so-called climate science where attention-seeking assertions can easily over-reach observations.

  65. oldbrew says:

    From NTZ:
    Dr. Murry Salby’s 2012 university-level textbook: Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate.
    – See more at: http://notrickszone.com

    http://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/jzavala/OceanoAtmosfera/Physics%20of%20the%20Atmosphere%20and%20Climate%20-%20Murry%20Salby.pdf

  66. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ed, this may not (finish) answer(ing) your question, but maybe it will help you fill in some of the puzzle pieces you need to evolve independent firsthand perspective on the whole…

    Semi-annual oscillations are manifest in various geophysical phenomena. Harry van Loon took an interest in tracking down SAO manifestations in climate and others since then like Chen & Wu have pioneered exploration and conceptualization of the SAO as a coherent global structure. Better can be done. I have a lot more to say about this than time will permit, so in this installment I’m first pointing out something that should by now be really obvious (but for whatever reason maybe isn’t):

    qboland

    That’s a time-height section of equatorial wind and part-way up you see the QBO (quasibiennial oscillation) and above that — way-up — you see an SAO.

    You can count about 5 SAO per QBO.
    You can see that the SAO governs the shape of the top of the QBO.

    It’s a trivial exercise to determine the slip cycle attractor between SAO & QBO:

    harmonic of QBO nearest semi-annual:
    (2.369718033) / 5 = 0.473943607
    (0.5)*(0.473943607) / (0.5 – 0.473943607) = 9.094574181 years

    Remember that these waves propagate downwards. There are enormous reservoirs of heat below them, so their fingerprints do not necessarily penetrate to the surface everywhere. For example, each of the hemispheres has an overwhelmingly dominant ANNUAL oscillation.

    Note that these hemispheric annual oscillations are (stating the obvious) OUT-OF-PHASE.

    Since that’s so obvious, why stress it?
    Because it explains both polar motion and why 96 is anti-phased pole-pole.

    You can see (in the last graphic) the poleward slip of QBO on the year:

    harmonic of QBO nearest annual:
    (2.369718033) / 2 = 1.184859016
    (1.184859016)*(1) / (1.184859016 – 1) = 6.409527865 years (polar motion group wave)

    So, from the equator:
    • 9.1 year fingers are playing the circulatory instrument downwards
    and
    • 6.4 year fingers are playing the circulatory instrument polewards.

    Those are orthogonal 2D perspectives on a curved surface.
    When you look globally in 3D:

    harmonic of 9.094574181 nearest annual:
    (9.094574181) / 9 = 1.010508242
    (1.010508242)*(1) / (1.010508242 – 1) = 96.16339375 years

    …and it’s anti-phased pole-pole, as both expected and observed
    (…as I’ve been illustrating above and in previous Suggestions threads).

    That’s one side of the story (gravity).
    I’ll leave the other side (thermal) for another day.

    Does it all tie in with what we’ve learned about phi?
    You betcha… (like a hot knife cuts through butter…)

  67. Paul Vaughan says:

    The images in the comment immediately-above are from:
    http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm

    There are in infinite number of QBO — for example here are 2:

    We need to move past thinking of QBO as a time series.
    It’s a spatiotemporal series.

    I am so, so, so incredibly sick of dealing with people who want everything to be a time-only series… Ok, when I start getting that angry, it’s time to go hiking… See ya…

  68. Paul Vaughan says:

    Daily Reminder:
    These are NOT components of the global mean.
    They’re components of the SPATIAL variance.

    This is about aggregation criteria fundamentals, without which there can be NO sensible interpretation of (haphazardly constructed) climate stats.

    We’re mapping out the shortcomings of the quantitative tools used to date to explore climate. This will provide a roadmap for luminaries pioneering orders of magnitude more advanced spatiotemporal exploratory tools. In our lifetimes we’ll only ever have time to touch and point out the periphery, as our society isn’t ready to think clearly about these things. It will be up to future generations to accelerate the exploration.

  69. Ed says:

    Paul,
    Thanks for your detailed response.
    We really appreciate your patience and time.
    It is much clearer now.
    I have seen how 3D modelling and visualization has enhanced fluid and heat mechanical engineering design and I think that a 3D time representation of these spatiotemporal climate parameters will greatly help people visualize and understand them.
    Unfortunately that requires a lot of software, effort and computation power, and is likely very expensive!

  70. Ian Wilson says:

    Paul,

    You constantly dismiss or downplay the lunar influences upon the interaction between the SAO, the Annual [seasonal – i.e. solar driven] Oscillation and the QBO, yet you openly admit that the timing of the QBO is driven by the interaction of the moon with the Annual Oscillation:

    This is evident by the dominant periods associated with the QBO:

    2.370 years________________Draconic month annually aliased
    2.528 years________________Harmonic mean of 2.370 and 2.715 years
    2.715 years________________Tropical month annually aliased
    1.960 years________________half x (the anomalistic cycle annually aliased)

    Surely if the Moon determines the harmonics associated with the QBO [and very likely also the ENSO pattern as well] – it must also play a role in the movement and distribution of heat energy between the Earth’s tropics and the poles.

  71. Paul Vaughan says:

    There appears to have been an extreme misunderstanding Ian.

    96 is a spatiotemporal lunisolar variance mode.

    Anyone mindfully reviewing my related comments on Suggestions 17 & 18 will see (as I’ve emphasized above) that it’s based on nothing other than the nodal cycle & the tropical year.

  72. Paul Vaughan says:

    96 is the major lunisolar mode of spatiotemporal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variance.

  73. Michele says:

    The Cosmic Energy Gravitational Genesis of the Forthcoming Intensifications of the Global Seismotectonic, Volcanic, Climatic and Magnetic Activities Since 2016 AD

    Sergey Victorovich Simonenko

    “…We have presented in Section 3.1 the founded fundamental
    seismotectonic, volcanic, climatic and magnetic time
    periodicities tec, vol, clim, m, f T = (702 ± 6) years, [3, 4, 15, 16],
    tec, vol, clim, m, cf T = (1581±189) years [16],
    tcc,vol, clim,m, sf T = (6321± 3) years [13, 17] determined by the
    combined predominant non-stationary energy gravitational
    influences on the Earth of the system Sun-Moon, the Venus,
    the Mars, the Jupiter and the Sun owing to the predominant
    gravitational interactions of the Sun with the Jupiter and the
    Saturn….”

  74. oldbrew says:

    Meet Donald Trump’s New Energy Adviser

    “My idea of a carbon tax would be to help fund clean fossil fuel research and development, not to fund the government, not to punish fossil fuel generation, not to manipulate fuel choice,” Cramer said. “Even a neutral, a revenue-neutral, carbon tax is inappropriate, in my view. But if we can have a very, very modest carbon tax to fund, again, the solution by utilizing fossil fuels like coal, I think even the industry would support that.”
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/meet-donald-trump-s-new-energy-adviser/

  75. Ian Wilson says:

    Paul,

    Some people claim that there is a 10.66 year cycle in the solar sunspot number.

    3 x 10.66 = 32 years –> This leads to – 32/64/96 year harmonics

    Interestingly the base 32 year cycle is almost exactly one year long than the 31 year cycle.

    __________31 years –> leads to – 31/62/93 year harmonics.

    Just speculating.

  76. oldbrew says:

    Elon Musk’s SolarCity Sucked Into Federal Corruption Probe

    Federal prosecutors want SolarCity’s records regarding Cuomo’s so-called Buffalo Billion plan, which has New York taxpayers paying $750 million to finance a one million-square-foot “gigafactory” for SolarCity near the city of Buffalo.

    Once complete, SolarCity will rent out the gigafactory for $2 a year for the first ten years on the condition the company hit “full production levels six months after construction ends, employ 1,460 in Buffalo and 500 at the plant for five years,” according to Newsday.

    http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/13/elon-musks-solarcity-sucked-into-federal-corruption-probe/

  77. RJ Salvador says:

    This something to think about and I did for fun.
    The El NINO index is a concoction of six observed variables melded together. To understand it’s construction requires understanding this paragraph from NOAA. I don’t claim to understand all of it.

    “El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Here we attempt to monitor ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C). These observations have been collected and published in ICOADS for many years. The MEI is computed separately for each of twelve sliding bi-monthly seasons (Dec/Jan, Jan/Feb,…, Nov/Dec). After spatially filtering the individual fields into clusters (Wolter, 1987), the MEI is calculated as the first unrotated Principal Component (PC) of all six observed fields combined. This is accomplished by normalizing the total variance of each field first, and then performing the extraction of the first PC on the co-variance matrix of the combined fields (Wolter and Timlin, 1993). In order to keep the MEI comparable, all seasonal values are standardized with respect to each season and to the 1950-93 reference period.”

    It takes something unusual to fit this:
    I can make a reasonable curve fit of it from 1870 to 2016 using 8 frequencies presented here by Paul Vaughan and Ian Wilson and three other frequencies which they will recognize as being close to others they have discussed.

    The base frequencies are in years:
    f1 = 1
    f2 = 1.958936
    f3 = 2.369718
    f4 = 2.530930
    f5 = 2.715426
    f6 = 4.8569408
    f7 = 6.63172474
    f8 = 12.849245
    PV and IW will see that the first five are the earth and 4 lunar annually aliased frequencies. The next three are close to other frequencies they have put forth. These frequencies have their phases modulated by
    31.9088585
    62.1142156
    94.1610379
    discussed above by PV and IW.

    Here is the fit to the El NINO index using both data from 1950 and historical data back to 1870. The yellow line is the curve fit and the blue line the El Nino data. The r ^2 is 0.624:

    Here is the forecast of this curve out to 2030. The red line is the forecast:

    I hope everyone views this as a fun exercise and not as hard core science. Often insight comes from entertainment.

  78. Poly says:

    mmmm, The Final Comments from the IW post;
    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.html
    are attached below. There are similarities.

    “This study is still a work in progress but already we can make some interesting predictions, which
    if fulfilled would reinforce the claim that El Nino events are triggered by the Moon.

    The first prediction is that because we are currently in a 31 year Full Moon Epoch for El Niño events,
    there should be heightened probability of experiencing a strong El Niño in the following years:

    2015-2016 (see figure 1)
    2019-2020 and
    2024

    as these are the years where the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes.

    The second prediction is that, starting sometime around the year 2021, we should begin to see El Niño events that are more typical of the sequencing seen for the New Moon Epochs (i.e. they will be triggered when the line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Solstices). These times could include:

    2022-23 (?) and
    2027

    Of course, there is always the caveat that we are currently moving into an extended period of low solar activity which could increase the overall intensity of El Niño events out to at least the mid 2030’s. However, this could also be accompanied by a decrease in the frequency of occurrence of El Niño events as we move into a period of misalignment between the lunar line-of-nodes and the lunar line-of-apse.”

  79. Paul Vaughan says:

    When the sun was slowing down, Japan ruled Korea.
    When the slow-down ended: The Korean War.
    When the next slow-down commenced, China’s Cultural Revolution ended.

    You don’t want to know what happens next.

  80. oldbrew says:

    From 2021-2024 inclusive the four major planets should be in the same quadrant, with the Sun well away from the solar system barycentre, following a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction in late 2020.

  81. oldbrew says:

    Gravity-only model of star formation challenged by new study.

    ‘The data show that magnetic fields and gravitation have approximately the same effect on the filament. Taking this as their basis, the two astronomers developed a scenario in which the filament is a flexible structure undulating to and fro. The usual models of star formation, on the other hand, are based on gas clouds which collapse under their own gravitation.’

    http://phys.org/news/2016-05-interplay-magnetic-fields-gravitation-orion.html

  82. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Humans are so deeply languaged that we forget that language is only an act of pointing, like the finger that points to the moon. With this forgetting, we end up only gazing at the finger, mistaking the finger for the moon. This is particularly the case with explicative language, as in our empirical discourses that tell us what the facts of the world are. We forget that the Nature that lies outside the human conceptualization does not come already classified in the way our language decides.” — Bai, Elza, Kovacs & Romanycia 2010

  83. Oldmank says:

    From PV’s extract : ” This is particularly the case with explicative language, as in our empirical discourses that tell us what the facts of the world are.”.

    Professor Edward DeBono in “Water Logic” says that a child continually asks ‘why’. He explains that it is the need of the child to connect new concepts with what already resides and is stored in the brain, and are therefore made recognisable.

    Many recognise the finger but not the moon. The finger represents ‘the fringe’ beyond which few dare to look, and anyone looking beyond the fringe is called, funnily enough, a lunatic. Dogma is a safe environment.

  84. oldbrew says:

    Lights finally come on for Indian village

    ‘Government figures released last year showed that more than 300 million people in India — the world’s fastest-growing major economy — still had no access to electricity.’
    http://www.yahoo.com/news/lights-finally-come-indian-village-045328184.html

    Comparison: the US population is around 320 million.

  85. Oldmank says:

    From oldbrew’s link “”I will personally invite my daughter-in-law’s family to visit us and look at the electricity meter,” the 60-year-old former labourer told AFP proudly after his house was connected.”

    That is new. Up to some years ago most in the villages connected directly to LV power lines (if my memory serves me right electrocution was a common way to go). No meters. Now it seems they have to pay. Progress ?!

  86. oldbrew says:

    Now they can get radio or TV and be brainwashed by the media like everyone else😉

  87. oldbrew says:

    ‘Ahead of a meeting of the EU’s energy commissioners, a report obtained by German media has revealed plans for the future of nuclear power in Europe.’

    ‘The plans contradict policy in Germany, which currently intends to end the domestic use of nuclear power by 2022. As an alternative to nuclear energy, Berlin has pushed to increase renewable energy, such as wind and solar power. But a decision to shut down nuclear power following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan has also left Germany reliant on dirty and readily available coal to produce power.’
    http://www.dw.com/en/european-union-to-publish-strategy-paper-on-nuclear-energy/a-19262144
    —–
    ‘Germany reliant on dirty and readily available coal to produce power’ – not what climate dogmatists or German political leaders want us to hear.

  88. Paul Vaughan says:

    Pukite’s pointing to this article
    http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19860010242.pdf
    on ENSO * CW coherence.

    x & y orientation are arbitrary.

    It has been a long time since then, so hopefully someone has since checked the evolution of temporal-coherence spatial-orientation.

    I’ve dug though some old polar motion files from 2009 and begun the preliminary file structure reorganization needed to spin the coherence mapping by longitude with adjustable temporal extent (not to be confused with grain, which will be fixed at CW).

  89. Paul Vaughan says:

    This look at decadal semi-annual volatility is now due for 2 updates:

    It’s (φ/Φ)/(J+S), not J+N and I’m now totally open minded about the possibility that it’s not as simple as “midlatitude westerlies”. For sure it’s about global statistical properties of wind.

    Conceptually people are wrong to keep expecting a TSI signal Nino3.4. The integrity check is whether people are willing or unwilling to stick to climate narratives that ARE CONSISTENT with EOP (Earth Orientation Parameters).

    To date we’ve seen non-stop examples of distortion on this file. They keep pretending uniformity’s tenable. It’s not. North-South Land-Ocean asymmetry alone ensures that’s not possible. The flow structures are NOT divorced from physical geography!

    I call foul on this file. We’re dealing with serious judicial corruption.

    One possibility I’ve been considering is that they actually perceive themselves as working FOR us, deliberately creating a context of extreme judicial corruption to accelerate and intensify hardening intolerance against corruption founded on STRICTLY false spatial & geometric assumptions.

  90. oldbrew says:

    PV: the paper Pukite refers to (‘EXCITATION OF THE EARTH’S CHANDLER WOBBLE
    BY SOUTHERN OSCILLATION / EL NINO, 1900-1979’) doesn’t mention ‘moon’ or ‘lunar’ at all.

  91. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, that was 1985. Things have changed since then.

    They’re at least comfortable admitting it’s the nodal cycle off-the-official-record now. Still keeping it classified at this point is silly. It brings the judgement of their higher-ups into question.

    Long-run-average observed CW period measured in days matches nodal theory expectation to 2 decimal places. All they’re doing is burning public trust pretending this is a secret.

    Grumbine’s reaction to Pukite was totally unacceptable and inappropriate. Correction (and apology) is due.

  92. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve completed exploration of spatial evolution of ENSO * CW coherence. I’ve made no recording (neither digital nor hardcopy) of insight thus gained nor methodology employed. The insight thus gained will be used to judge the integrity of climate commentary. Sensible climate commentary is not inconsistent with the EOP record.

  93. Paul Vaughan says:

    For those trying to follow some of Pukite’s latest,
    apse derivations analogous to those given above for node:

    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 27.55455 is 28.095553
    (28.095553)*(27.55455) / (28.095553 – 27.55455) = 1430.972323 days
    (1430.972323) / 365.242189 = 3.917872487 years

    harmonic of 182.6210945 nearest 27.55455 is 26.0887277857143
    (27.55455)*(26.08872779) / (27.55455 – 26.08872779) = 490.4163324 days
    (490.4163324) / 365.242189 = 1.342715456 years

    (3.917872487)*(1.342715456) / (3.917872487 – 1.342715456) = 2.042822197
    (3.917872487)*(1.342715456) / (3.917872487 + 1.342715456) = 1
    (3.917872487)*(1.342715456) / ( (3.917872487 + 1.342715456) / 2 ) = 2 = harmonic mean

    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 13.777275 is 13.5274884814815
    (13.777275)*(13.52748848) / (13.777275 – 13.52748848) = 746.1248508 days
    (746.1248508) / 365.242189 = 2.042822197 years

    harmonic of 182.6210945 nearest 13.777275 is 14.0477765
    (14.0477765)*(13.777275) / (14.0477765 – 13.777275) = 715.4861617 days
    (715.4861617) / 365.242189 = 1.958936244 years

    (2.042822197)*(1.958936244) / (2.042822197 – 1.958936244) = 47.7047503
    (2.042822197)*(1.958936244) / (2.042822197 + 1.958936244) = 1
    (2.042822197)*(1.958936244) / ( (2.042822197 + 1.958936244) / 2 ) = 2 = harmonic mean

    I don’t see any indication whatsoever that people are ready to begin thinking sensibly about apse. They haven’t even yet understood the simpler, more basic lessons about nodes.

    Pedagogically I don’t think it’s sensible and wise to try to move the students on to a 201 before they’ve mastered a 101.

    Eventually we do have to deal with the fact that ALL VEI (volcanic explosivity index) clusters EXACTLY match intradecadal ENSO kinks.

    I’ve looked at dozens of ENSO indices and some of them deviate from one another substantially, so I recommend treating them as an exploratory empirical ensemble (i.e. run analyses on all of them to gain comparative insight (like I did in ERSST EOF1234)). For example, most of the indices match what appears to be a sole ~1900 phase mismatch on the bottom panel here:

    The red spikes matching the intradecadal ENSO kinks are VEI clusters. “L90” (lunisolar 90 year) was a primitive placeholder years ago, before I realized the simplicity of 96. Here we are gaining insight into ERSST EOF2&3 and the failsafe coherence with the VEI clusters does point to something affecting Earth’s mantle & crust.

    So one question that arises given the spatial pattern of 96 (see flashing .gif upthread): Is 96 volatility geothermal? If it’s not geothermal, does it have more to do with spatiotemporal timing & spacing of stratospheric injection and consequent spatiotemporally reactive water cycle balancing?

    ENSO’s just a spatial contrast, so except in the case of OVERWHELMING injection (rare in recent centuries at least), all stratospheric injection is doing is either accentuating or dampening a spatial contrast. The insolation, welling, evaporation, & rain just get moved with no net (enduring) temporal impact …except in overwhelming cases perhaps (and we have no such examples in recent records).

    We can be sure the mantle & crust are involved and it makes sense that apse plays a role in the probability (there’s no guarantee) of trigger (USGS has documented conclusive probabilistic evidence, as I’ve pointed out in the past), but we perhaps need more (pursuit &/or awareness of) transdisciplinary empirical insight (perhaps already existing but we remain ignorant) to engage the process of elimination more to decide whether it’s geothermal or thermocirculatory.

    The thing to take note of is that the nodes decide when SAOT (stratospheric volcanism) does not match VEI (volcanism more generally). The nodes are scaling the volatility and centennial polar bias. The VEI clusters (with matching intradecadal ENSO kinks) keep happening during the low part of 96, but they’re not stratospheric.

    This ties right in with the notes I gave above as those derivations and illustrations were about 4-dimensional spatiotemporal stratospheric architectural cycling. I wrote an article about this in 2010, but at the time I had not yet realized the simplicity of 96.

    I’m open to the possibility that it’s not geothermal but rather circulatory with balancing spatiotemporal reaction varying with the cycling flow architecture.

    So what this would say is that whether apse gets to magnify polar bias depends on nodes. Apse is involved in the equatorial signal all along. It’s able to bias the poles only when the nodes cooperate.

    Reality check: In considering all of the above keep in mind that the sun controls EOFs1&4. EOFs2&3 are lunisolar. These 2 groups are COMPLETELY ORTHOGONAL and no one is helping by trying to conflate the 2.

    We can discuss each separately with awareness of the mathematical proof of orthogonality, both in observation AND THEORY, keeping in mind that proofs that apply to attractors apply not to individual events but rather to systematically tuned aggregates (of topologically turbulent spatial circulatory structures). Time-only event series (a narrow 1-dimensional concept divorced from the architectural turbulence of real physical topology) and topologically reconfigurable spatiotemporal volatility structures (turbulently cycling flow architecture with boundaries) differ fundamentally.

    There are lots of things we can’t ignore here. What I’m trying to do is to get people to realize exactly what is wrong about what they are saying about apse. Apse has a role, yes, but it’s place in a sensible narrative has to be consistent with other accumulated insights, including those reflecting laws of large numbers & conservation of angular momentum.

    Strategic provocation:
    The community is being deliberately obtuse about apse.

    Fortunately EOP & SST EOFs make that crystal clear, so sensible parties have a hope of engaging in more fair judgement if they can transcend natural political biases. (On religious principle, some cannot and will not.)

  94. Paul Vaughan says:

    I similarly suggest comparatively exploring an *empirical ensemble of QBOs (definitely NOT to be confused with MODEL ensembles, something to steer WELL clear of).

  95. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve just cross-referenced my VEI files from 2009 with a volcano database to facilitate extension of VEI explorations to spatial and geographical dimensions.

    A question on my mind:
    Is there anything systematic about the temporal VEI clusters occurring at ENSO intradecadal kinks?

    It’s very disappointing that the mainstream doesn’t already have an answer to this question when the concordance is perfectly 1:1 over the entire record. You’d think that would be the FIRST thing any ENSO investigator would explore.

    Why are all these volcanoes going off exactly when ENSO rounds every intradecadal corner?
    It’s such a clear concordance. It irksomely shakes trust that mainstream ENSO people just ignore it without even mentioning it.

    They leave the impression that they regard climate as independent of geophysics. (I think in their government-funded model-fantasy world, that’s how it actually is, which really underscores how far bad government can drive ingenious human effort off-track with no more than funding incentive.)

    Years ago I did briefly begin a most crude look into VEI spatial pattern (just northern vs. southern hemisphere). I’ve always intended to go back for an orders-of-magnitude more-careful look with meticulously careful attention to geometry, geography, or anything spatiotemporally systematic.

    My instinct was that this could turn out to be exceedingly tedious work — e.g. need to develop spatiotemporal software, need to learn a lot about geology &/or more likely geography, and/or need to recognize types of patterns not easily recognized by human minds without better data visualization.

    On the other hand, there may be something simple & obvious.

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    Maybe part of the reason this doesn’t get better exploratory attention is lack of convenient formatting.

    Year’s ago I developed (and checked) an algorithm that carefully combed a messy (too many formatting exceptions) online database (one that has since vanished) to assemble the following VEI index, which I’m now sharing to help kickstart people on their own firsthand explorations of VEI temporal pattern at least:

    1850	1	1850.083333	0
    1850	2	1850.166667	0
    1850	3	1850.25	0
    1850	4	1850.333333	0
    1850	5	1850.416667	0
    1850	6	1850.5	0
    1850	7	1850.583333	0
    1850	8	1850.666667	0
    1850	9	1850.75	0
    1850	10	1850.833333	0
    1850	11	1850.916667	0
    1850	12	1851	0
    1851	1	1851.083333	0
    1851	2	1851.166667	0
    1851	3	1851.25	0
    1851	4	1851.333333	0
    1851	5	1851.416667	0
    1851	6	1851.5	0
    1851	7	1851.583333	0
    1851	8	1851.666667	0
    1851	9	1851.75	0
    1851	10	1851.833333	0
    1851	11	1851.916667	0
    1851	12	1852	0
    1852	1	1852.083333	0
    1852	2	1852.166667	0
    1852	3	1852.25	0
    1852	4	1852.333333	0
    1852	5	1852.416667	0
    1852	6	1852.5	0
    1852	7	1852.583333	0
    1852	8	1852.666667	0
    1852	9	1852.75	0
    1852	10	1852.833333	0
    1852	11	1852.916667	0
    1852	12	1853	0
    1853	1	1853.083333	0
    1853	2	1853.166667	0
    1853	3	1853.25	0
    1853	4	1853.333333	0.333333333
    1853	5	1853.416667	0
    1853	6	1853.5	0
    1853	7	1853.583333	0
    1853	8	1853.666667	0
    1853	9	1853.75	0
    1853	10	1853.833333	0
    1853	11	1853.916667	0
    1853	12	1854	0
    1854	1	1854.083333	0
    1854	2	1854.166667	0.416666667
    1854	3	1854.25	0
    1854	4	1854.333333	0
    1854	5	1854.416667	0
    1854	6	1854.5	0
    1854	7	1854.583333	0
    1854	8	1854.666667	0
    1854	9	1854.75	0
    1854	10	1854.833333	0
    1854	11	1854.916667	0
    1854	12	1855	0
    1855	1	1855.083333	0
    1855	2	1855.166667	0
    1855	3	1855.25	0
    1855	4	1855.333333	0
    1855	5	1855.416667	0
    1855	6	1855.5	0
    1855	7	1855.583333	0
    1855	8	1855.666667	0
    1855	9	1855.75	0
    1855	10	1855.833333	0
    1855	11	1855.916667	0
    1855	12	1856	0
    1856	1	1856.083333	0
    1856	2	1856.166667	0
    1856	3	1856.25	0
    1856	4	1856.333333	0
    1856	5	1856.416667	0
    1856	6	1856.5	0
    1856	7	1856.583333	0
    1856	8	1856.666667	0
    1856	9	1856.75	0.333333333
    1856	10	1856.833333	0
    1856	11	1856.916667	0
    1856	12	1857	0
    1857	1	1857.083333	0.333333333
    1857	2	1857.166667	0
    1857	3	1857.25	0
    1857	4	1857.333333	0
    1857	5	1857.416667	0
    1857	6	1857.5	0
    1857	7	1857.583333	0
    1857	8	1857.666667	0
    1857	9	1857.75	0
    1857	10	1857.833333	0
    1857	11	1857.916667	0
    1857	12	1858	0
    1858	1	1858.083333	0
    1858	2	1858.166667	0
    1858	3	1858.25	0
    1858	4	1858.333333	0
    1858	5	1858.416667	0
    1858	6	1858.5	0
    1858	7	1858.583333	0
    1858	8	1858.666667	0
    1858	9	1858.75	0
    1858	10	1858.833333	0
    1858	11	1858.916667	0
    1858	12	1859	0
    1859	1	1859.083333	0
    1859	2	1859.166667	0
    1859	3	1859.25	0
    1859	4	1859.333333	0
    1859	5	1859.416667	0
    1859	6	1859.5	0
    1859	7	1859.583333	0
    1859	8	1859.666667	0
    1859	9	1859.75	0
    1859	10	1859.833333	0
    1859	11	1859.916667	0
    1859	12	1860	0
    1860	1	1860.083333	0
    1860	2	1860.166667	0
    1860	3	1860.25	0
    1860	4	1860.333333	0
    1860	5	1860.416667	0.333333333
    1860	6	1860.5	0
    1860	7	1860.583333	0
    1860	8	1860.666667	0
    1860	9	1860.75	0
    1860	10	1860.833333	0
    1860	11	1860.916667	0
    1860	12	1861	0
    1861	1	1861.083333	0
    1861	2	1861.166667	0
    1861	3	1861.25	0
    1861	4	1861.333333	0
    1861	5	1861.416667	0
    1861	6	1861.5	0
    1861	7	1861.583333	0
    1861	8	1861.666667	0
    1861	9	1861.75	0
    1861	10	1861.833333	0
    1861	11	1861.916667	0
    1861	12	1862	0.333333333
    1862	1	1862.083333	0
    1862	2	1862.166667	0
    1862	3	1862.25	0
    1862	4	1862.333333	0
    1862	5	1862.416667	0
    1862	6	1862.5	0
    1862	7	1862.583333	0
    1862	8	1862.666667	0
    1862	9	1862.75	0
    1862	10	1862.833333	0
    1862	11	1862.916667	0
    1862	12	1863	0
    1863	1	1863.083333	0
    1863	2	1863.166667	0
    1863	3	1863.25	0
    1863	4	1863.333333	0
    1863	5	1863.416667	0
    1863	6	1863.5	0
    1863	7	1863.583333	0
    1863	8	1863.666667	0
    1863	9	1863.75	0
    1863	10	1863.833333	0
    1863	11	1863.916667	0
    1863	12	1864	0
    1864	1	1864.083333	0
    1864	2	1864.166667	0
    1864	3	1864.25	0
    1864	4	1864.333333	0
    1864	5	1864.416667	0
    1864	6	1864.5	0
    1864	7	1864.583333	0
    1864	8	1864.666667	0
    1864	9	1864.75	0
    1864	10	1864.833333	0
    1864	11	1864.916667	0
    1864	12	1865	0
    1865	1	1865.083333	0
    1865	2	1865.166667	0
    1865	3	1865.25	0
    1865	4	1865.333333	0
    1865	5	1865.416667	0
    1865	6	1865.5	0
    1865	7	1865.583333	0
    1865	8	1865.666667	0
    1865	9	1865.75	0
    1865	10	1865.833333	0
    1865	11	1865.916667	0
    1865	12	1866	0
    1866	1	1866.083333	0
    1866	2	1866.166667	0
    1866	3	1866.25	0
    1866	4	1866.333333	0
    1866	5	1866.416667	0
    1866	6	1866.5	0
    1866	7	1866.583333	0
    1866	8	1866.666667	0
    1866	9	1866.75	0
    1866	10	1866.833333	0
    1866	11	1866.916667	0
    1866	12	1867	0
    1867	1	1867.083333	0
    1867	2	1867.166667	0
    1867	3	1867.25	0
    1867	4	1867.333333	0
    1867	5	1867.416667	0
    1867	6	1867.5	0
    1867	7	1867.583333	0
    1867	8	1867.666667	0
    1867	9	1867.75	0
    1867	10	1867.833333	0
    1867	11	1867.916667	0
    1867	12	1868	0
    1868	1	1868.083333	0
    1868	2	1868.166667	0
    1868	3	1868.25	0
    1868	4	1868.333333	0
    1868	5	1868.416667	0
    1868	6	1868.5	0
    1868	7	1868.583333	0
    1868	8	1868.666667	0
    1868	9	1868.75	0
    1868	10	1868.833333	0
    1868	11	1868.916667	0
    1868	12	1869	0
    1869	1	1869.083333	0
    1869	2	1869.166667	0
    1869	3	1869.25	0
    1869	4	1869.333333	0
    1869	5	1869.416667	0
    1869	6	1869.5	0
    1869	7	1869.583333	0
    1869	8	1869.666667	0
    1869	9	1869.75	0
    1869	10	1869.833333	0
    1869	11	1869.916667	0
    1869	12	1870	0
    1870	1	1870.083333	0
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    1966	6	1966.5	0
    1966	7	1966.583333	0
    1966	8	1966.666667	0.333333333
    1966	9	1966.75	0
    1966	10	1966.833333	0
    1966	11	1966.916667	0
    1966	12	1967	0
    1967	1	1967.083333	0
    1967	2	1967.166667	0
    1967	3	1967.25	0
    1967	4	1967.333333	0
    1967	5	1967.416667	0
    1967	6	1967.5	0
    1967	7	1967.583333	0
    1967	8	1967.666667	0
    1967	9	1967.75	0
    1967	10	1967.833333	0
    1967	11	1967.916667	0
    1967	12	1968	0
    1968	1	1968.083333	0
    1968	2	1968.166667	0
    1968	3	1968.25	0
    1968	4	1968.333333	0
    1968	5	1968.416667	0
    1968	6	1968.5	0.333333333
    1968	7	1968.583333	0
    1968	8	1968.666667	0
    1968	9	1968.75	0
    1968	10	1968.833333	0
    1968	11	1968.916667	0
    1968	12	1969	0
    1969	1	1969.083333	0
    1969	2	1969.166667	0
    1969	3	1969.25	0
    1969	4	1969.333333	0
    1969	5	1969.416667	0
    1969	6	1969.5	0
    1969	7	1969.583333	0
    1969	8	1969.666667	0
    1969	9	1969.75	0
    1969	10	1969.833333	0
    1969	11	1969.916667	0
    1969	12	1970	0
    1970	1	1970.083333	0
    1970	2	1970.166667	0
    1970	3	1970.25	0
    1970	4	1970.333333	0
    1970	5	1970.416667	0
    1970	6	1970.5	0
    1970	7	1970.583333	0
    1970	8	1970.666667	0
    1970	9	1970.75	0
    1970	10	1970.833333	0
    1970	11	1970.916667	0
    1970	12	1971	0
    1971	1	1971.083333	0
    1971	2	1971.166667	0
    1971	3	1971.25	0
    1971	4	1971.333333	0
    1971	5	1971.416667	0
    1971	6	1971.5	0
    1971	7	1971.583333	0
    1971	8	1971.666667	0
    1971	9	1971.75	0
    1971	10	1971.833333	0
    1971	11	1971.916667	0
    1971	12	1972	0
    1972	1	1972.083333	0
    1972	2	1972.166667	0
    1972	3	1972.25	0
    1972	4	1972.333333	0
    1972	5	1972.416667	0
    1972	6	1972.5	0
    1972	7	1972.583333	0
    1972	8	1972.666667	0
    1972	9	1972.75	0
    1972	10	1972.833333	0
    1972	11	1972.916667	0
    1972	12	1973	0
    1973	1	1973.083333	0
    1973	2	1973.166667	0
    1973	3	1973.25	0
    1973	4	1973.333333	0
    1973	5	1973.416667	0
    1973	6	1973.5	0
    1973	7	1973.583333	0.333333333
    1973	8	1973.666667	0
    1973	9	1973.75	0
    1973	10	1973.833333	0
    1973	11	1973.916667	0
    1973	12	1974	0
    1974	1	1974.083333	0
    1974	2	1974.166667	0
    1974	3	1974.25	0
    1974	4	1974.333333	0
    1974	5	1974.416667	0
    1974	6	1974.5	0
    1974	7	1974.583333	0
    1974	8	1974.666667	0
    1974	9	1974.75	0
    1974	10	1974.833333	0.333333333
    1974	11	1974.916667	0
    1974	12	1975	0
    1975	1	1975.083333	0
    1975	2	1975.166667	0
    1975	3	1975.25	0
    1975	4	1975.333333	0
    1975	5	1975.416667	0
    1975	6	1975.5	0
    1975	7	1975.583333	0.333333333
    1975	8	1975.666667	0
    1975	9	1975.75	0
    1975	10	1975.833333	0
    1975	11	1975.916667	0
    1975	12	1976	0
    1976	1	1976.083333	0.333333333
    1976	2	1976.166667	0
    1976	3	1976.25	0
    1976	4	1976.333333	0
    1976	5	1976.416667	0
    1976	6	1976.5	0
    1976	7	1976.583333	0
    1976	8	1976.666667	0
    1976	9	1976.75	0
    1976	10	1976.833333	0
    1976	11	1976.916667	0
    1976	12	1977	0
    1977	1	1977.083333	0
    1977	2	1977.166667	0
    1977	3	1977.25	0
    1977	4	1977.333333	0
    1977	5	1977.416667	0
    1977	6	1977.5	0
    1977	7	1977.583333	0
    1977	8	1977.666667	0
    1977	9	1977.75	0
    1977	10	1977.833333	0
    1977	11	1977.916667	0
    1977	12	1978	0
    1978	1	1978.083333	0
    1978	2	1978.166667	0
    1978	3	1978.25	0
    1978	4	1978.333333	0
    1978	5	1978.416667	0
    1978	6	1978.5	0
    1978	7	1978.583333	0
    1978	8	1978.666667	0
    1978	9	1978.75	0
    1978	10	1978.833333	0
    1978	11	1978.916667	0
    1978	12	1979	0
    1979	1	1979.083333	0
    1979	2	1979.166667	0
    1979	3	1979.25	0
    1979	4	1979.333333	0
    1979	5	1979.416667	0
    1979	6	1979.5	0
    1979	7	1979.583333	0
    1979	8	1979.666667	0
    1979	9	1979.75	0
    1979	10	1979.833333	0
    1979	11	1979.916667	0
    1979	12	1980	0
    1980	1	1980.083333	0
    1980	2	1980.166667	0
    1980	3	1980.25	0
    1980	4	1980.333333	0
    1980	5	1980.416667	0.416666667
    1980	6	1980.5	0
    1980	7	1980.583333	0
    1980	8	1980.666667	0
    1980	9	1980.75	0
    1980	10	1980.833333	0
    1980	11	1980.916667	0
    1980	12	1981	0
    1981	1	1981.083333	0
    1981	2	1981.166667	0
    1981	3	1981.25	0
    1981	4	1981.333333	0.333333333
    1981	5	1981.416667	0.333333333
    1981	6	1981.5	0
    1981	7	1981.583333	0
    1981	8	1981.666667	0
    1981	9	1981.75	0
    1981	10	1981.833333	0
    1981	11	1981.916667	0
    1981	12	1982	0
    1982	1	1982.083333	0
    1982	2	1982.166667	0
    1982	3	1982.25	0.333333333
    1982	4	1982.333333	0.416666667
    1982	5	1982.416667	0.333333333
    1982	6	1982.5	0
    1982	7	1982.583333	0
    1982	8	1982.666667	0
    1982	9	1982.75	0
    1982	10	1982.833333	0
    1982	11	1982.916667	0
    1982	12	1983	0
    1983	1	1983.083333	0
    1983	2	1983.166667	0
    1983	3	1983.25	0
    1983	4	1983.333333	0
    1983	5	1983.416667	0
    1983	6	1983.5	0
    1983	7	1983.583333	0.333333333
    1983	8	1983.666667	0
    1983	9	1983.75	0
    1983	10	1983.833333	0
    1983	11	1983.916667	0
    1983	12	1984	0
    1984	1	1984.083333	0
    1984	2	1984.166667	0
    1984	3	1984.25	0
    1984	4	1984.333333	0
    1984	5	1984.416667	0
    1984	6	1984.5	0
    1984	7	1984.583333	0
    1984	8	1984.666667	0
    1984	9	1984.75	0
    1984	10	1984.833333	0
    1984	11	1984.916667	0
    1984	12	1985	0
    1985	1	1985.083333	0
    1985	2	1985.166667	0
    1985	3	1985.25	0
    1985	4	1985.333333	0
    1985	5	1985.416667	0
    1985	6	1985.5	0
    1985	7	1985.583333	0
    1985	8	1985.666667	0
    1985	9	1985.75	0
    1985	10	1985.833333	0
    1985	11	1985.916667	0
    1985	12	1986	0
    1986	1	1986.083333	0
    1986	2	1986.166667	0
    1986	3	1986.25	0.333333333
    1986	4	1986.333333	0
    1986	5	1986.416667	0
    1986	6	1986.5	0
    1986	7	1986.583333	0
    1986	8	1986.666667	0
    1986	9	1986.75	0
    1986	10	1986.833333	0
    1986	11	1986.916667	0.333333333
    1986	12	1987	0
    1987	1	1987.083333	0
    1987	2	1987.166667	0
    1987	3	1987.25	0
    1987	4	1987.333333	0
    1987	5	1987.416667	0
    1987	6	1987.5	0
    1987	7	1987.583333	0
    1987	8	1987.666667	0
    1987	9	1987.75	0
    1987	10	1987.833333	0
    1987	11	1987.916667	0
    1987	12	1988	0
    1988	1	1988.083333	0
    1988	2	1988.166667	0
    1988	3	1988.25	0
    1988	4	1988.333333	0
    1988	5	1988.416667	0
    1988	6	1988.5	0
    1988	7	1988.583333	0
    1988	8	1988.666667	0
    1988	9	1988.75	0
    1988	10	1988.833333	0
    1988	11	1988.916667	0
    1988	12	1989	0
    1989	1	1989.083333	0
    1989	2	1989.166667	0
    1989	3	1989.25	0
    1989	4	1989.333333	0
    1989	5	1989.416667	0
    1989	6	1989.5	0
    1989	7	1989.583333	0
    1989	8	1989.666667	0
    1989	9	1989.75	0
    1989	10	1989.833333	0
    1989	11	1989.916667	0
    1989	12	1990	0
    1990	1	1990.083333	0.333333333
    1990	2	1990.166667	0.333333333
    1990	3	1990.25	0
    1990	4	1990.333333	0
    1990	5	1990.416667	0
    1990	6	1990.5	0
    1990	7	1990.583333	0
    1990	8	1990.666667	0
    1990	9	1990.75	0
    1990	10	1990.833333	0
    1990	11	1990.916667	0
    1990	12	1991	0
    1991	1	1991.083333	0
    1991	2	1991.166667	0
    1991	3	1991.25	0
    1991	4	1991.333333	0
    1991	5	1991.416667	0
    1991	6	1991.5	0.5
    1991	7	1991.583333	0
    1991	8	1991.666667	0.416666667
    1991	9	1991.75	0
    1991	10	1991.833333	0
    1991	11	1991.916667	0
    1991	12	1992	0
    1992	1	1992.083333	0
    1992	2	1992.166667	0
    1992	3	1992.25	0
    1992	4	1992.333333	0
    1992	5	1992.416667	0
    1992	6	1992.5	0.333333333
    1992	7	1992.583333	0
    1992	8	1992.666667	0
    1992	9	1992.75	0
    1992	10	1992.833333	0
    1992	11	1992.916667	0
    1992	12	1993	0
    1993	1	1993.083333	0
    1993	2	1993.166667	0
    1993	3	1993.25	0
    1993	4	1993.333333	0.333333333
    1993	5	1993.416667	0
    1993	6	1993.5	0
    1993	7	1993.583333	0
    1993	8	1993.666667	0
    1993	9	1993.75	0
    1993	10	1993.833333	0
    1993	11	1993.916667	0
    1993	12	1994	0
    1994	1	1994.083333	0
    1994	2	1994.166667	0
    1994	3	1994.25	0
    1994	4	1994.333333	0
    1994	5	1994.416667	0
    1994	6	1994.5	0
    1994	7	1994.583333	0
    1994	8	1994.666667	0
    1994	9	1994.75	0.333333333
    1994	10	1994.833333	0
    1994	11	1994.916667	0
    1994	12	1995	0
    1995	1	1995.083333	0
    1995	2	1995.166667	0
    1995	3	1995.25	0
    1995	4	1995.333333	0
    1995	5	1995.416667	0
    1995	6	1995.5	0
    1995	7	1995.583333	0
    1995	8	1995.666667	0
    1995	9	1995.75	0
    1995	10	1995.833333	0
    1995	11	1995.916667	0
    1995	12	1996	0
    1996	1	1996.083333	0
    1996	2	1996.166667	0
    1996	3	1996.25	0
    1996	4	1996.333333	0
    1996	5	1996.416667	0
    1996	6	1996.5	0
    1996	7	1996.583333	0
    1996	8	1996.666667	0
    1996	9	1996.75	0
    1996	10	1996.833333	0
    1996	11	1996.916667	0
    1996	12	1997	0
    1997	1	1997.083333	0
    1997	2	1997.166667	0
    1997	3	1997.25	0
    1997	4	1997.333333	0
    1997	5	1997.416667	0
    1997	6	1997.5	0
    1997	7	1997.583333	0
    1997	8	1997.666667	0
    1997	9	1997.75	0
    1997	10	1997.833333	0
    1997	11	1997.916667	0
    1997	12	1998	0
    1998	1	1998.083333	0
    1998	2	1998.166667	0
    1998	3	1998.25	0
    1998	4	1998.333333	0
    1998	5	1998.416667	0
    1998	6	1998.5	0
    1998	7	1998.583333	0
    1998	8	1998.666667	0
    1998	9	1998.75	0
    1998	10	1998.833333	0
    1998	11	1998.916667	0
    1998	12	1999	0
    1999	1	1999.083333	0
    1999	2	1999.166667	0
    1999	3	1999.25	0
    1999	4	1999.333333	0
    1999	5	1999.416667	0
    1999	6	1999.5	0
    1999	7	1999.583333	0
    1999	8	1999.666667	0
    1999	9	1999.75	0
    1999	10	1999.833333	0
    1999	11	1999.916667	0
    1999	12	2000	0
    2000	1	2000.083333	0
    2000	2	2000.166667	0
    2000	3	2000.25	0
    2000	4	2000.333333	0
    2000	5	2000.416667	0
    2000	6	2000.5	0
    2000	7	2000.583333	0
    2000	8	2000.666667	0
    2000	9	2000.75	0.333333333
    2000	10	2000.833333	0
    2000	11	2000.916667	0
    2000	12	2001	0
    2001	1	2001.083333	0
    2001	2	2001.166667	0
    2001	3	2001.25	0
    2001	4	2001.333333	0
    2001	5	2001.416667	0.333333333
    2001	6	2001.5	0
    2001	7	2001.583333	0
    2001	8	2001.666667	0
    2001	9	2001.75	0
    2001	10	2001.833333	0
    2001	11	2001.916667	0
    2001	12	2002	0
    2002	1	2002.083333	0
    2002	2	2002.166667	0
    2002	3	2002.25	0
    2002	4	2002.333333	0
    2002	5	2002.416667	0
    2002	6	2002.5	0
    2002	7	2002.583333	0
    2002	8	2002.666667	0
    2002	9	2002.75	0.333333333
    2002	10	2002.833333	0
    2002	11	2002.916667	0.333333333
    2002	12	2003	0
    2003	1	2003.083333	0
    2003	2	2003.166667	0
    2003	3	2003.25	0
    2003	4	2003.333333	0
    2003	5	2003.416667	0
    2003	6	2003.5	0
    2003	7	2003.583333	0
    2003	8	2003.666667	0
    2003	9	2003.75	0
    2003	10	2003.833333	0
    2003	11	2003.916667	0
    2003	12	2004	0
    2004	1	2004.083333	0
    2004	2	2004.166667	0
    2004	3	2004.25	0
    2004	4	2004.333333	0
    2004	5	2004.416667	0
    2004	6	2004.5	0
    2004	7	2004.583333	0
    2004	8	2004.666667	0
    2004	9	2004.75	0
    2004	10	2004.833333	0
    2004	11	2004.916667	0
    2004	12	2005	0
    2005	1	2005.083333	0.333333333
    2005	2	2005.166667	0
    2005	3	2005.25	0
    2005	4	2005.333333	0
    2005	5	2005.416667	0
    2005	6	2005.5	0
    2005	7	2005.583333	0
    2005	8	2005.666667	0
    2005	9	2005.75	0
    2005	10	2005.833333	0
    2005	11	2005.916667	0
    2005	12	2006	0
    2006	1	2006.083333	0
    2006	2	2006.166667	0
    2006	3	2006.25	0
    2006	4	2006.333333	0
    2006	5	2006.416667	0
    2006	6	2006.5	0
    2006	7	2006.583333	0
    2006	8	2006.666667	0
    2006	9	2006.75	0
    2006	10	2006.833333	0.333333333
    2006	11	2006.916667	0
    2006	12	2007	0
    2007	1	2007.083333	0
    2007	2	2007.166667	0
    2007	3	2007.25	0
    2007	4	2007.333333	0
    2007	5	2007.416667	0
    2007	6	2007.5	0
    2007	7	2007.583333	0
    2007	8	2007.666667	0
    2007	9	2007.75	0
    2007	10	2007.833333	0
    2007	11	2007.916667	0
    2007	12	2008	0
    2008	1	2008.083333	0
    2008	2	2008.166667	0
    2008	3	2008.25	0
    2008	4	2008.333333	0
    2008	5	2008.416667	0.333333333
    2008	6	2008.5	0
    2008	7	2008.583333	0.333333333
    2008	8	2008.666667	0.333333333
    2008	9	2008.75	0
    2008	10	2008.833333	0
    2008	11	2008.916667	0
    2008	12	2009	0
    2009	1	2009.083333	0
    2009	2	2009.166667	0
    2009	3	2009.25	0.333333333
    2009	4	2009.333333	0
    2009	5	2009.416667	0
    2009	6	2009.5	0.333333333
    2009	7	2009.583333	0
    2009	8	2009.666667	0
    2009	9	2009.75	0
    2009	10	2009.833333	0
    2009	11	2009.916667	0
    2009	12	2010	0
    

    Other indices to consider in conjunction with the preceding:
    IVI2 & Mitchell's Severity Index.

  97. Paul Vaughan says:

    Explorers may notice changes in the formatting of Smithsonian Institute VEI files.

    I’ve cross-referenced volcano names from some of the older files with names from a newer file named “GVP_Volcano_List”.

    I’m sharing this to save people lacking free time ID & cross-referencing trouble (column 4 is VEI; 0 in column 6 indicates the old & new files have matching volcano names):

    1853	4	1853.333333	4	Usu	Toya	Hokkaido (Japan) 	285030	Toya	Japan	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2001 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Hokkaido	42.544	140.839	733	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1854	2	1854.166667	5	Shiveluch	Sheveluch	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300270	Sheveluch	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	56.653	161.36	3283	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1856	9	1856.75	4	Komaga-Take	Hokkaido-Komagatake	Hokkaido (Japan) 	285020	Hokkaido-Komagatake	Japan	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2000 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Hokkaido	42.063	140.677	1131	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1857	1	1857.083333	4	Fuego	0	Guatemala 	342090	Fuego	Guatemala	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	México and Central America	Guatemala	14.473	-90.88	3763	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1860	5	1860.416667	4	Katla	0	Southern Iceland 	372030	Katla	Iceland	Subglacial	Eruption Observed	1918 CE	Iceland and Arctic Ocean	Iceland (southern)	63.63	-19.05	1512	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (< 15 km)
    1861	12	1862	4	Makian	0	Halmahera (Indonesia) 	268070	Makian	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1988 CE	Indonesia	Halmahera	0.32	127.4	1357	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1873	1	1873.083333	4	Grimsvotn	0	Northeastern Iceland 	373010	Grimsvotn	Iceland	Caldera	Eruption Observed	2011 CE	Iceland and Arctic Ocean	Iceland (northeastern)	64.42	-17.33	1725	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (< 15 km)
    1875	3	1875.25	5	Askja	0	Northeastern Iceland 	373060	Askja	Iceland	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1961 CE	Iceland and Arctic Ocean	Iceland (northeastern)	65.03	-16.75	1516	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (< 15 km)
    1877	6	1877.5	4	Suwanose-Jima	Suwanosejima	Ryukyu Islands (Japan) 	282030	Suwanosejima	Japan	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu	29.638	129.714	796	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1880	6	1880.5	4	Fuego	0	Guatemala 	342090	Fuego	Guatemala	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	México and Central America	Guatemala	14.473	-90.88	3763	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1883	8	1883.666667	6	Krakatau	0	Indonesia 	262000	Krakatau	Indonesia	Caldera	Eruption Observed	2014 CE	Indonesia	Krakatau	-6.102	105.423	813	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1883	10	1883.833333	4	Augustine	0	Southwestern Alaska 	313010	Augustine	United States	Lava dome(s)	Eruption Observed	2006 CE	Alaska	Alaska (southwestern)	59.363	-153.43	1252	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1886	1	1886.083333	4	Tungurahua	0	Ecuador 	352080	Tungurahua	Ecuador	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	South America	Ecuador	-1.467	-78.442	5023	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1886	6	1886.5	5	Okataina	0	New Zealand 	241050	Okataina	New Zealand	Lava dome(s)	Eruption Observed	1981 CE	New Zealand to Fiji	New Zealand	-38.12	176.5	1111	Rhyolite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1886	8	1886.666667	4	Niuafo'ou	0	Tonga Islands 	243110	Niuafo'ou	Tonga	Shield	Eruption Observed	1985 CE	New Zealand to Fiji	Tonga Islands	-15.6	-175.63	260	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1889	10	1889.833333	4	Suwanose-Jima	Suwanosejima	Ryukyu Islands (Japan) 	282030	Suwanosejima	Japan	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu	29.638	129.714	796	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1893	1	1893.083333	4	Calbuco	0	Southern Chile 	358020	Calbuco	Chile	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	South America	Southern Chile and Argentina	-41.326	-72.614	2003	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1897	6	1897.5	4	Mayon	0	Luzon (Philippines) 	273030	Mayon	Philippines	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2014 CE	Philippines and SE Asia	Luzon	13.257	123.685	2462	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1899	11	1899.916667	4	Dona Juana	0	Colombia 	351070	Dona Juana	Colombia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1906 CE	South America	Colombia	1.5	-76.936	4137	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1902	5	1902.416667	4	Pelee	0	West Indies 	360120	Pelee	France	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1932 CE	West Indies	West Indies	14.809	-61.165	1394	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (< 15 km)
    1902	5	1902.416667	4	Soufriere St. Vincent	Soufrière St. Vincent	West Indies 	360150	Soufrière St. Vincent	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1979 CE	West Indies	West Indies	13.33	-61.18	1220	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (< 15 km)
    1902	5	1902.416667	4	Pelee	0	West Indies 	360120	Pelee	France	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1932 CE	West Indies	West Indies	14.809	-61.165	1394	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1903	5	1903.416667	4	Grimsvotn	0	Northeastern Iceland 	373010	Grimsvotn	Iceland	Caldera	Eruption Observed	2011 CE	Iceland and Arctic Ocean	Iceland (northeastern)	64.42	-17.33	1725	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1906	4	1906.333333	4	Vesuvius	0	Italy 	211020	Vesuvius	Italy	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1944 CE	Mediterranean and Western Asia	Italy	40.821	14.426	1281	Phono-tephrite /  Tephri-phonolite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1907	3	1907.25	5	Ksudach	0	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300050	Ksudach	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1907 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	51.844	157.572	1079	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1911	6	1911.5	4	Lolobau	0	New Britain 	252130	Lolobau	Papua New Guinea	Caldera	Eruption Observed	1912 CE	Melanesia and Australia	New Britain	-4.92	151.158	858	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1912	6	1912.5	6	Novarupta	0	Alaska Peninsula 	312180	Novarupta	United States	Caldera	Eruption Observed	1912 CE	Alaska	Alaska Peninsula	58.27	-155.157	841	Rhyolite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1913	1	1913.083333	4	Colima	0	México 	341040	Colima	Mexico	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	México and Central America	Mexico	19.514	-103.62	3850	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1914	1	1914.083333	4	Sakura-Jima	Aira	Kyushu (Japan) 	282080	Aira	Japan	Caldera	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu	31.593	130.657	1117	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1917	4	1917.333333	4	Agrigan	0	Mariana Islands 	284160	Agrigan	United States	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1917 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Izu, Volcano, and Mariana Islands	18.77	145.67	965	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Crustal thickness unknown
    1918	4	1918.333333	4	Tungurahua	0	Ecuador 	352080	Tungurahua	Ecuador	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	South America	Ecuador	-1.467	-78.442	5023	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1918	10	1918.833333	4	Katla	0	Southern Iceland 	372030	Katla	Iceland	Subglacial	Eruption Observed	1918 CE	Iceland and Arctic Ocean	Iceland (southern)	63.63	-19.05	1512	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1919	8	1919.666667	4	Manam	0	Northeast of New Guinea 	251020	Manam	Papua New Guinea	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	Melanesia and Australia	Northeast of New Guinea	-4.08	145.037	1807	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1924	2	1924.166667	4	Raikoke	0	Kuril Islands 	290250	Raikoke	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1924 CE	Kuril Islands	Kuril Islands	48.292	153.25	551	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Intermediate crust (15-25 km)
    1924	10	1924.833333	4	Iriomote-Jima	Submarine Volcano NNE of Iriomotejima	Ryukyu Islands (Japan) 	282010	Submarine Volcano NNE of Iriomotejima	Japan	Submarine	Eruption Observed	1924 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu	24.57	123.93	-200	Rhyolite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1929	6	1929.5	4	Komaga-Take	Hokkaido-Komagatake	Hokkaido (Japan) 	285020	Hokkaido-Komagatake	Japan	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2000 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Hokkaido	42.063	140.677	1131	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1931	3	1931.25	4	Kliuchevskoi	Klyuchevskoy	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300260	Klyuchevskoy	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	56.056	160.642	4754	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1931	5	1931.416667	4	Aniakchak	0	Alaska Peninsula 	312090	Aniakchak	United States	Caldera	Eruption Observed	1931 CE	Alaska	Alaska Peninsula	56.88	-158.17	1341	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1931	5	1931.416667	4	Aniakchak	0	Alaska Peninsula 	312090	Aniakchak	United States	Caldera	Eruption Observed	1931 CE	Alaska	Alaska Peninsula	56.88	-158.17	1341	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1932	1	1932.083333	4	Fuego	0	Guatemala 	342090	Fuego	Guatemala	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	México and Central America	Guatemala	14.473	-90.88	3763	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1932	4	1932.333333	5	Azul, Cerro	0	Central Chile 	353060	Azul, Cerro	Ecuador	Shield	Eruption Observed	2008 CE	South America	Galapagos Islands	-0.92	-91.408	1640	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1933	12	1934	4	Kuchinoerabu-Jima	Kuchinoerabujima	Ryukyu Islands (Japan) 	282050	Kuchinoerabujima	Japan	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu	30.443	130.217	657	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1943	2	1943.166667	4	Michoacan-Guanajuato	0	México 	341060	Michoacan-Guanajuato	Mexico	Pyroclastic cone(s)	Eruption Observed	1952 CE	México and Central America	Mexico	19.85	-101.75	3860	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1945	2	1945.166667	4	Avachinsky	0	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300100	Avachinsky	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2001 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	53.256	158.836	2717	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1946	11	1946.916667	4	Sarychev Peak	0	Kuril Islands 	290240	Sarychev Peak	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2009 CE	Kuril Islands	Kuril Islands	48.092	153.2	1496	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Intermediate crust (15-25 km)
    1947	3	1947.25	4	Hekla	0	Southern Iceland 	372070	Hekla	Iceland	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2000 CE	Iceland and Arctic Ocean	Iceland (southern)	63.98	-19.7	1491	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1951	8	1951.666667	4	Kelut	0	Java (Indonesia) 	263280	Kelut	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2014 CE	Indonesia	Java	-7.93	112.308	1731	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1952	2	1952.166667	4	Bagana	0	Bougainville Island 	255020	Bagana	Papua New Guinea	Lava cone	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	Melanesia and Australia	Bougainville and Solomon Islands	-6.137	155.196	1855	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Crustal thickness unknown
    1953	7	1953.583333	4	Spurr	0	Southwestern Alaska 	313040	Spurr	United States	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1992 CE	Alaska	Alaska (southwestern)	61.299	-152.251	3374	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1955	7	1955.583333	4	Carran-Los Venados	Carrán-Los Venados	Central Chile 	357140	Carrán-Los Venados	Chile	Pyroclastic cone(s)	Eruption Observed	1979 CE	South America	Central Chile and Argentina	-40.35	-72.07	1114	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1956	3	1956.25	5	Bezymianny	0	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300250	Bezymianny	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2013 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	55.972	160.595	2882	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1963	3	1963.25	5	Agung	0	Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia) 	264020	Agung	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1964 CE	Indonesia	Lesser Sunda Islands	-8.342	115.508	3142	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1963	5	1963.416667	4	Agung	0	Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia) 	264020	Agung	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1964 CE	Indonesia	Lesser Sunda Islands	-8.342	115.508	3142	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1964	11	1964.916667	4	Shiveluch	Sheveluch	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300270	Sheveluch	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	56.653	161.36	3283	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1965	9	1965.75	4	Taal	0	Luzon (Philippines) 	273070	Taal	Philippines	Caldera	Eruption Observed	1977 CE	Philippines and SE Asia	Luzon	14.002	120.993	311	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1966	4	1966.333333	4	Kelut	0	Java (Indonesia) 	263280	Kelut	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2014 CE	Indonesia	Java	-7.93	112.308	1731	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1966	8	1966.666667	4	Awu	0	Sangihe Islands (Indonesia) 	267040	Awu	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2004 CE	Indonesia	Sangihe Islands	3.67	125.5	1320	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (< 15 km)
    1968	6	1968.5	4	Fernandina	0	Galápagos Islands 	353010	Fernandina	Ecuador	Shield	Eruption Observed	2009 CE	South America	Galapagos Islands	-0.37	-91.55	1476	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Rift zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    1975	7	1975.583333	4	Tolbachik	0	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300240	Tolbachik	Russia	Shield	Eruption Observed	2013 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	55.832	160.326	3611	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1976	1	1976.083333	4	Augustine	0	Southwestern Alaska 	313010	Augustine	United States	Lava dome(s)	Eruption Observed	2006 CE	Alaska	Alaska (southwestern)	59.363	-153.43	1252	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1980	5	1980.416667	5	St. Helens	0	Washington (USA) 	321050	St. Helens	United States	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2008 CE	Canada and Western USA	USA (Washington)	46.2	-122.18	2549	Dacite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1981	4	1981.333333	4	Alaid	0	Kuril Islands 	290390	Alaid	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	Kuril Islands	Kuril Islands	50.861	155.565	2285	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1981	5	1981.416667	4	Pagan	0	Mariana Islands 	284170	Pagan	United States	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2012 CE	Japan, Taiwan, Marianas	Izu, Volcano, and Mariana Islands	18.13	145.8	570	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Crustal thickness unknown
    1982	3	1982.25	4	Chichon, El	0	México 	341120	Chichon, El	Mexico	Lava dome(s)	Eruption Observed	1982 CE	México and Central America	Mexico	17.36	-93.228	1150	Trachyandesite / Basaltic Trachyandesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1982	4	1982.333333	5	Chichon, El	0	México 	341120	Chichon, El	Mexico	Lava dome(s)	Eruption Observed	1982 CE	México and Central America	Mexico	17.36	-93.228	1150	Trachyandesite / Basaltic Trachyandesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1982	5	1982.416667	4	Galunggung	0	Java (Indonesia) 	263140	Galunggung	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1984 CE	Indonesia	Java	-7.25	108.058	2168	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1983	7	1983.583333	4	Colo [Una Una]	Colo	Sulawesi (Indonesia) 	266010	Colo	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1983 CE	Indonesia	Sulawesi	-0.162	121.601	404	Trachyandesite / Basaltic Trachyandesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1986	3	1986.25	4	Augustine	0	Southwestern Alaska 	313010	Augustine	United States	Lava dome(s)	Eruption Observed	2006 CE	Alaska	Alaska (southwestern)	59.363	-153.43	1252	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1986	11	1986.916667	4	Chikurachki	0	Kuril Islands 	290360	Chikurachki	Russia	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	Kuril Islands	Kuril Islands	50.324	155.461	1781	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1990	1	1990.083333	4	Kliuchevskoi	Klyuchevskoy	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300260	Klyuchevskoy	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	56.056	160.642	4754	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1990	2	1990.166667	4	Kelut	0	Java (Indonesia) 	263280	Kelut	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2014 CE	Indonesia	Java	-7.93	112.308	1731	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1991	6	1991.5	6	Pinatubo	0	Luzon (Philippines) 	273083	Pinatubo	Philippines	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1993 CE	Philippines and SE Asia	Luzon	15.13	120.35	1486	Dacite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1991	8	1991.666667	5	Hudson, Cerro	0	Southern Chile 	358057	Hudson, Cerro	Chile	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2011 CE	South America	Southern Chile and Argentina	-45.9	-72.97	1905	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1992	6	1992.5	4	Spurr	0	Southwestern Alaska 	313040	Spurr	United States	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	1992 CE	Alaska	Alaska (southwestern)	61.299	-152.251	3374	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1993	4	1993.333333	4	Lascar	0	Northern Chile 	355100	Lascar	Chile	Stratovolcano(es)	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	South America	Northern Chile, Bolivia and Argentina	-23.37	-67.73	5592	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    1994	9	1994.75	4	Rabaul	0	New Britain 	252140	Rabaul	Papua New Guinea	Pyroclastic shield	Eruption Observed	2014 CE	Melanesia and Australia	New Britain	-4.271	152.203	688	Dacite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    2000	9	2000.75	4	Ulawun	0	New Britain 	252120	Ulawun	Papua New Guinea	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2013 CE	Melanesia and Australia	New Britain	-5.05	151.33	2334	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    2001	5	2001.416667	4	Shiveluch	Sheveluch	Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 	300270	Sheveluch	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2016 CE	Kamchatka and Mainland Asia	Kamchatka Peninsula	56.653	161.36	3283	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    2002	9	2002.75	4	Ruang	0	Sangihe Islands (Indonesia) 	267010	Ruang	Indonesia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2002 CE	Indonesia	Sangihe Islands	2.3	125.37	725	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Oceanic crust (25 km)
    2005	1	2005.083333	4	Manam	0	Northeast of New Guinea 	251020	Manam	Papua New Guinea	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2015 CE	Melanesia and Australia	Northeast of New Guinea	-4.08	145.037	1807	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    2006	10	2006.833333	4	Rabaul	0	New Britain 	252140	Rabaul	Papua New Guinea	Pyroclastic shield	Eruption Observed	2014 CE	Melanesia and Australia	New Britain	-4.271	152.203	688	Dacite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    2008	5	2008.416667	4	Chaiten	0	Southern Chile 	358041	Chaiten	Chile	Caldera	Eruption Observed	2011 CE	South America	Southern Chile and Argentina	-42.833	-72.646	1122	Rhyolite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    2008	7	2008.583333	4	Okmok	0	Aleutian Islands 	311290	Okmok	United States	Shield	Eruption Observed	2008 CE	Alaska	Aleutian Islands	53.43	-168.13	1073	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Intermediate crust (15-25 km)
    2008	8	2008.666667	4	Kasatochi	0	Aleutian Islands 	311130	Kasatochi	United States	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2008 CE	Alaska	Aleutian Islands	52.177	-175.508	314	Basalt / Picro-Basalt	Subduction zone / Intermediate crust (15-25 km)
    2009	3	2009.25	4	Redoubt	0	Southwestern Alaska 	313030	Redoubt	United States	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2009 CE	Alaska	Alaska (southwestern)	60.485	-152.742	3108	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Continental crust (>25 km)
    2009	6	2009.5	4	Sarychev Peak	0	Kuril Islands 	290240	Sarychev Peak	Russia	Stratovolcano	Eruption Observed	2009 CE	Kuril Islands	Kuril Islands	48.092	153.2	1496	Andesite / Basaltic Andesite	Subduction zone / Intermediate crust (15-25 km)
    

  98. Paul Vaughan says:

    Update: As I always suspected, there IS a spatial order shared by VEI & ENSO.
    As a crude exploratory starting point, note that “Volcano Number” (column 8 above) crudely orders volcanoes around the Ring of Fire. Even this crude preliminary spatial ordering index reveals non-random association with Extended Multivariate ENSO (MEIx) index. Clever parties with sufficient time & resources could easily devise an algorithm that would optimize the spatial order indexing to maximize the correspondence with MEIx. The next step would be attempting interpretation. Whoever pursues this to completion will have a classic landmark finding to report. Tip: The Icelandic “Volcano Numbers” that have been assigned by whoever as coming after Chile don’t fit the crude preliminary clockwise Ring of Fire ordering scheme. They’re the worst outliers that will immediately catch a skeptical eye. Whoever writes the classic paper: I ask that you acknowledge my tip. Others: I ask that you watch for this.

  99. Paul Vaughan says:

    Government-funded mainstream climate “scientists”: This may be your final exam. We’ll find out if you really love nature or not.

  100. oldbrew says:

    Tim Cullen is stirring it up again:
    ‘The dynamic evolution of the Solar System from a compact configuration to its current [more expansive] format 1,100 years ago explains why ancient cultures enjoyed years with 360 days.’

    ‘The Heinsohn Horizon and The Nice Model’
    http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2016/05/19/the-heinsohn-horizon-and-the-nice-model/

    Hmmm…

  101. oldbrew says:

    Another day, another bunch of fake climate scares and numbers rolling off the production line…

    ‘World Bank: Climate Change Puts 1.3 Billion People And $158 Trillion At Risk’
    http://www.technocracy.news/index.php/2016/05/16/world-bank-climate-change-puts-1-3-billion-people-158-trillion-risk/

    TN Note: From an economist point of view, stories like this are aggravating because they are completely bogus. There may well be $158 Trillion that will change hands in the future, from rich nations to poor nations. However, if history is any guide, most of that money will never reach its intended audience. Rather, it will be gobbled up by global corporations, middlemen and corrupt politicians. This story has repeated many times over the last 40 years. The scam is to “free” the frigid funds and cause them to float so that they can be plundered.

  102. oldbrew says:

    The 2300BC Event(s)

    ‘…instead of concentrating on the 2200 BC event (end of Akkad) they plumped to look at the 2350 BC low growth tree ring event (which lasted ten years) and can be aligned quite sweetly with the end of Dynastic Sumeria (followed by the overrunning of northern Babylonia by refugees from the west (the Akkadians).’
    http://www.sis-group.org.uk/news/2300bc-event.htm-0

    2350 BC is around the date referred to by Dodwell in his obliquity investigation (2345 BC):
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/12/24/dodwells-surprising-study-of-the-obliquity-of-the-ecliptic/

    ‘In 2011 Mike Baillie, the renowned dendrochronologist, had a PowerPoint presentation(d) at the Quantavolution Conference in Athens, which offered tree-ring evidence that clearly demonstrated an ‘event’ in 2345 BC.’

    SIS has this link: http://cosmictusk.com/whatapaper-baillie-and-mcaneney-on-bronze-age-climate-collapse/

    And a science paper: 2200 BC – A climatic breakdown as a cause for the collapse of the old world?
    http://www.academia.edu/19056410/Archipelagos_adjacent_to_Sicily_around_2200_BC_attractive_environments_or_suitable_geo-economic_locations

  103. oldbrew says:

    PV: re Pukite, 6.409527865 tropical years and 96 years (previous S-18 comments)

    6.409527865 x 105 = 673 years = 96 x 7, +1
    105 = 21 x 5
    673 = 21 x 32, +1

    Also:
    2.369718 x 284 = 673 years
    1.453563298 x 463 = 673 years
    1.184859016 x 568 = 673 years (568 = 284 x 2)
    (568 – 463 = 673 – 568 = 105, see above)

    See…Paul Vaughan says:
    May 4, 2016 at 7:19 am (Edit)
    Pukite needs some help with biannual.

  104. Paul Vaughan says:

    “We have reported here a new 16 year long data set of the Earth’s nearly globally averaged albedo as measured by looking at the earthshine.”

    “nearly globally averaged”

    “globally averaged”

    That’s not going to help elucidate asymmetric land-ocean contrast and consequent flow.

    Dark agent belief-cops at wuwt love it for it’s (implicit as these things always are) false assumption that spatial variation has no effect on flow.

    The spatial distribution of albedo over the surface of Earth has no effect on climate???? Like come on people!!

    They’re trying to tell you only the global average matters and that climate has nothing to do with the spatial variations. (Like as if!!!) They’re saying if a bunch of solar energy gets in where albedo’s low, it doesn’t matter that the consequent energy imbalance results in flow (and mixing).

    And they’re saying (implicitly through the hidden assumptions of their dark political narrative) that consequent flow isn’t even a part of climate, as if it’s nothing! They hope you don’t even think about it. They want you to ignore flow and pretend flow does not matter AT ALL.

    AW should boot these people out …and be brave enough to face the assured intense fallout. They have corrupted his website. Creepy as h*ll…

    But let’s be clear about exactly who it is who needs to STOP ignoring spatial variations: EVERYONE.

    My suggestion is don’t be dumb enough to assume uniformity without even realizing you’re doing it like a lot of unfathomably naive members of the wuwt audience. Isn’t it curious? Normally right-wingers pride themselves on not being naive, but at wuwt you can see the artificial submission to left-wing infiltraitors on display 24/7. I suggest booting the 6 of them out so the audience can be freed from forced conceptual slavery to false uniformity assumptions …and simply bravely facing the fallout. A simple solution is the best one.

  105. oldbrew says:

    Hot off the presses…
    ‘Global and Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies – Land and Marine Instrumental Records’

    Investigators
    P. D. Jones 1, D. E. Parker 2, T. J. Osborn 1, and K. R. Briffa 1
    1 Climatic Research Unit,
    School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia,
    Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
    2 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,
    Meteorological Office,
    Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom

    Period of Record
    1850-2015 (Anomalies are relative to the 1961-90 reference period means.)

    ‘The northern and southern hemisphere annual trend series show some general similarities, e.g., little sign of trends before about 1900, a peak in the early 1940s, and the highest temperatures occurring after 1980; but there are several notable differences.’ [see link]
    http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html
    —-
    Some of those investigator names look familiar…

    Still no warming between 1940 and the late 1960s, as they note.

  106. Paul Vaughan says:

    One more comment for those exploring the VEI – ENSO coupling:

    The correlation of the Ring of Fire spatial index with MEIx reverses sign occasionally. (Interpretation: simply rotation on ring in opposite direction.) The sign of the correlation is generally consistent with the stages of multidecadal northern hemisphere SST variation, but there are some brief interannual exceptions.

    The correlation is very strong on a multidecadal window centered around the Chandler Wobble phase reversal (early 1900s).

    There’s something to learn from the largely systematic evolving spatial pattern of the coupling, but here we’re in territory where we’ve scarcely begun thinking about what types of vision we need to develop to see in such a context. This looks like a massive clue about spatiotemporal coupling structure. Making better sense of it looks likely to push us out of our comfort zones, but maybe a contemplative walk in the hills will efficiently clarify a systematic simplicity of geometric evolution.

  107. oldbrew says:

    HOW DOES LIGHT TRAVEL?
    19 May , 2016 by Matt Williams

    ‘there remains many fascinating and unanswered questions when it comes to light, many of which arise from its dual nature. For instance, how is it that light can be apparently without mass, but still behave as a particle? And how can it behave like a wave and pass through a vacuum, when all other waves require a medium to propagate?’
    http://www.universetoday.com/83832/how-does-light-travel/

    HOW DOES LIGHT TRAVEL? – fast😉

  108. oldbrew says:

    ‘The UN controls how Canadians are permitted to live their lives’

    Canadians are increasingly subject to the UN’s globalist “programme of action.” Very few know anything about it. None voted for or consented to it.

    Michael Snyder explained the objective:

    …the globalists want to use “sustainable development” as an excuse to micromanage the lives of every man, woman and child on the entire globe.
    http://wolfhillblog.wordpress.com/2016/05/19/the-un-controls-how-canadians-are-permitted-to-live-their-lives/

  109. Oldmank says:

    Ha–“HOW DOES LIGHT TRAVEL?”–in a bee line – with mirrors.

    But going back to a previous post by oldbrew, re “The 2300BC Event(s)” there are more examples. Not least here
    http://www.saa.org/Portals/0/SAA/ForMembers/InterestGroups/The%20Current%20Issue%202-1.pdf
    see page 11-12. Not exactly 2300bce but a lot happened between 3195 and 2345.

    The last link in oldbrew’s post blames climate collapse. But as Dodwell clearly suspected the cause was not climate collapse but something else. Climate collapse was a result or after-effect. And note, Dodwell was not only NOT proved wrong, there is now hard evidence indicating that event.

    I point this out once more because much of what is said about the Earth and its climate, appears in comparison superficial, and has an underlying psychological bias that “hey whatever happens it cannot as bad as it was once said”. It is in effect an ancient biblical promise that it won’t happen again, but see what happened in Sendai in 2011. A small reminder.

  110. Oldmank says:

    oldbrew, re the link below, which is in one of your previous posts, you may be interested in some information.

    http://www.academia.edu/19056410/Archipelagos_adjacent_to_Sicily_around_2200_BC_attractive_environments_or_suitable_geo-economic_locations

    2345bce is a marker date. At one site there is a structure modified from a low obliquity to what it is today (in support of Dodwell). By 2200 another site mentioned specifically in the link shows clearly that the last builders copied from other sites but had absolutely no idea what the structures served for because orientation wise and in other ways it is senseless. Cult replaced science. There is a total knowledge break. While in the paper they see that evidence in pottery, it is very clear in the science of the structures.

  111. Oldmank says:

    Another link referred to in the previous link, an extensive one:

    https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/radiocarbon/article/viewFile/18325/18056

    name “THE INTERACTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGENCY IN THE
    COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATIONS ca.
    2300–2000 BC”.

  112. Paul Vaughan says:

    Geophysical-Climate Conceptual Game Changer (Made in China)

    The Ring of Fire Spatial Index of Volcanic Explosivity / El Nino — La Nina Coupling:

    Fire Ring Index = FRI

    Thank you vital, brilliant Chinese connections!

  113. oldbrew says:

    OldmanK : it seems Troy was less prosperous after ~ 2300 BC than before.

    ‘Troy II – (c. 2550-2300 BCE) displays larger buildings (40 m long), mud-brick and stone fortifications with monumental gates. Schliemann’s ‘treasure’ finds – objects in gold, silver, electrum, bronze, carnelian and lapis lazuli – most likely come from this period.’

    ‘Troy III – Troy V (c. 2300-1750 BCE) is the most difficult period to reconstruct as the layers were hastily removed in early excavations in order to reach the lower levels. Generally speaking, the period seems a less prosperous one but foreign contact is further evidenced by the presence of Anatolian influenced dome ovens and Minoan pottery.’
    http://www.ancient.eu/troy/

  114. Paul Vaughan says:

    The solar cycle length differintegral governs the direction of spin on the ring
    …and hence the sign of MEIx correlation with FRI.

    The pace of the bright yellow star directs the Ring of Fire.

  115. oldbrew says:

    Antikythera Mechanism: Ancient Celestial Calculator

    ‘The Antikythera Mechanism has been called an “ancient calculator,” but there is so much more to it than meets the eye. The shoebox-size device has a complex gearwheel system of 30 intricate bronze gear wheels used to run a system that displayed the date, positions of the sun and moon, lunar phases, a 19-year calendar and a 223-month eclipse prediction dial. This makes it an analog computer of great complexity. No other machine of known existence shows a similarity in advanced engineering for at least another 1,000 years.’

    ‘The device has been dated as coming from the second or early first century B.C., according to research published in the science journal Nature.’
    http://www.livescience.com/54782-antikythera-mechanism.html

    ’19-year calendar’ = the Metonic cycle
    http://www.antikythera-mechanism.gr/faq/astronomical-questions/what-are-the-metonic-and-callipic-cycles

    ‘a 223-month eclipse prediction dial’ = the Saros cycle
    http://members.bitstream.net/~bunlion/bpi/EclSaros.html

  116. Gail Combs says:

    Thanks Paul V.

    Something You guys might enjoy:

    Stone-Age graveyard reveals life in a “green Sahara”

    …Two seasons of excavation supported by the society eventually revealed some 200 graves clearly belonging to two successive lakeside populations, scientists said. The older group, determined to be Kiffian, were hunters of wild game who left evidence that they also speared huge perch with harpoons when they colo­nized the green Sahara during its wettest period between 10,000 and 8,000 years ago. Their tall stature, some­times reaching well over 6 feet, was not immediately apparent from their tightly bound burial positions.

    The more recent population was the Tenerian, a more lightly built people who appeared to have had a di­verse economy of hunting, fishing and cattle herding, according to the research team. They lived during the latter part of the green Sahara, about 7,000 to 4,500 years ago. Their one-of-a-kind burials often included jew­elry or ritual poses—a girl wearing an upper-arm bracelet carved from a hippo tusk, for example, and a stun­ning triple burial containing a woman and two children in a poignant embrace….

    Now tell me again why we want it COLDER (and Drier?)

  117. Paul Vaughan says:

    Next Up:
    Directly connecting 243 (or 239 if you prefer) with JEV, 96, & 60 via BOTH nodal & apse cycles.

    Ian: Are you still following along? This will probably be of more interest to you than anyone else.

  118. Paul Vaughan says:

    Also: Tying J-S to BOTH nodal & apse cycles. (This one is mostly for bonus fun, but why the numbers match so well is a tantalizing mystery…)

    Oldmank, I’ve dug out the nutation in obliquity & longitude residuals (NOR & NLR) files for review….

  119. Ian Wilson says:

    Paul,

    For the sake of others who might be following along, I have had something to say about commensurabilities between transits of Venus and the lunar orbit:

    Wilson, I.R.G. Are the Strongest Lunar Perigean Spring Tides Commensurate with the Transit Cycle of Venus?, Pattern Recogn. Phys., 2, 75-93

    http://www.pattern-recognition-in-physics.com/pub/prp-2-75-2014.pdf

  120. Ian Wilson says:

    Paul,

    They may also want to read the following:

    A link between the Lunar tidal cycles and the planetary orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2015/11/a-link-between-lunar-tidal-cycles-and.html

  121. Ian Wilson says:

    Paul,

    Where did you get the Fire Ring Index from? It does seem to be a game changer if there is such a tight correlation – you need to get this result into print – if no one else has done it already.

  122. Ken Gregory says:

    Below are links to 2 Word documents of an article titled “The Economic Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions” submitted for your consideration for a guest article on your blog.

    The shorter version: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ee8us8ntpzmmfq3/Economic_Impact_Gregory_post.docx?dl=0

    Longer, technical version: https://www.dropbox.com/s/vvhql6bibx3uy0n/Economic_Impact_Gregory_post_long.docx?dl=0

  123. Paul Vaughan says:

    FRI indexes Ring of Fire volcanoes clockwise or counterclockwise depending on the sign of the multidecadal meridional flux, which can be read off panel #3 (above or below 0) or equivalently from rising or falling SCD:

    Above I wrote:

    “Years ago I did briefly begin a most crude look into VEI spatial pattern (just northern vs. southern hemisphere). I’ve always intended to go back for an orders-of-magnitude more-careful look with meticulously careful attention to geometry, geography, or anything spatiotemporally systematic.

    My instinct was that this could turn out to be exceedingly tedious work — e.g. need to develop spatiotemporal software, need to learn a lot about geology &/or more likely geography, and/or need to recognize types of patterns not easily recognized by human minds without better data visualization.

    On the other hand, there may be something simple & obvious.”

    It turned out to be the latter. It ended up being the first thing I checked when I finally had time 6 years (round 1 was March-June 2010) later.

  124. oldbrew says:

    The lunar wobble period (~6 yrs.) and the 5 Venus-Earth ‘pentagram’ of conjunctions (~8 yrs.) have a 4:3 ratio.

  125. Paul Vaughan says:

    A very, very special Φ Ring Index thank you:

  126. Paul Vaughan says:

    Canada became a small star May 19, 2016.

  127. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ka Ching!
    My Prediction Again for London Bankers:
    Sweet, sweet rewards for brave Brexit….

  128. Paul Vaughan says:

    Firing the EU to avoid the deafening ring of fire….

  129. Oldmank says:

    Oldbrew, something else you may find interesting, and worrying. The first to find archaeological evidence was Claude Schaeffer. But read this link for details.

    http://frontiers-of-anthropology.blogspot.com.mt/2011/08/professor-claude-schaeffer-and.html

    Particularly:

    “The idea of the earthquake disturbances and their consequences has bitten so much the imagination of the archaeologists that some of them which are hostile to new ideas which oblige them to study afresh established scientific opinions, admitted that I wanted to explain all those different crises by earth tremors and their consequences on human occupation and civilization in ancient times.”

    “For the historian and the general public are not yet ready to accept the thought that the earth is a much less safe place than they were accustomed to believe.”

    “But men are not easily convinced to face reality and to accept the results of objective research. They prefer to live in their imaginative world.”

    “The great perturbations which left their traces in the stratigraphy of the principal sites of the Bronze Age of Western Asia are six in number. The oldest among them shook, between 2400 and 2300, all of the land extending from the Caucasus in the North down to the Valley of the Nile, where it became one of the causes, if not the principal cause, of the fall of the Egyptian Old Kingdom “

  130. Oldmank says:

    Gail Combs said: “The more recent population was the Tenerian, a more lightly built people who appeared to have had a di­verse economy of hunting, fishing and cattle herding, according to the research team. They lived during the latter part of the green Sahara, about 7,000 to 4,500 years ago.”

    Between 7000 and 4500 (5000-2500 bce) elsewhere existed civilisations already with well established agriculture, with related folklore (knowledge transfer related not belief), and advanced knowledge on astronomy. That in itself is quite revealing, but the more so is what finally destroyed them, or more accurately, what forced them to change their way of life and suddenly disappear from the archaeo-historical record.

  131. oldbrew says:

    ‘The lunisolar tides repeat with a period of 355 days,
    which is known as the tidal year. This period is also manifested
    as a cycle of repeated eclipses.’ – Sidorenkov & Zhigailo
    ON THE SEPARATION OF SOLAR AND LUNAR CYCLES

    30 lunisolar tidal years / Saros eclipse cycle = Φ
    (tidal year = 13 tropical months = 355.18056 days, Saros = 6585.3212 days)

  132. RJ Salvador says:

    Oldbrew:
    Thanks for the Sidorenkov & Zhigailo paper. I always wondered what happened to temperatures in Russia after 1976.
    “The lunisolar tides repeat with a period of 355 days,
    which is known as the tidal year. This period is also manifested
    as a cycle of repeated eclipses. Meteorological
    characteristics (pressure, temperature, cloudiness, etc.)
    vary with a period of 355 days. The interference of these
    tidal oscillations and the usual annual 365-day oscillations
    generates beats in the annual amplitude of meteorological
    characteristics with a period of about 35 years (Sidorenkov
    and Sumerova, 2012b). The quasi 35-year variations
    in cloudiness lead to oscillations of the radiation
    balance over terrestrial regions. As a result of these quasi-
    35-year beats, the climate, for example, over European
    Russia alternates between “continental” with dominant
    cold winters and hot summers (such as from 1963 to 1975
    and from 1995 to 2014) and “maritime” with frequent
    warm winters and cool summers (such as from 1956 to
    1962 and from 1976 to 1994).”

    The conclusions of this paper are also expansive in suggesting that the connection to earths climate is through lunar/solar orbital modulation of the earths magnetic field interaction with the solar wind and space plasma.
    “The dependence of meteorological processes on the
    tidal oscillations of the Earth’s rotation rate (i.e., on the
    modulus of the Moon’s declination and parallax), the relation
    of climate characteristics to the cyclicity of eclipses
    (i.e., to the orientation of the Moon’s line of nodes), and
    the relation of droughts and floods to features of the perigee
    position (i.e., to the orientation of the apses of the
    Moon’s and Earth’s orbits) suggest that the responses of
    the climate system, biosphere, and noosphere to space
    impacts depend more not on the solar activity and gravitational
    tides but rather on the mutual configurations of the
    bodies in the Sun–Earth–Moon system (more precisely,
    in the entire solar system), on the positions of their lines
    of nodes and apses, and on the orientations of their rotation
    axes and the Earth’s magnetic field with respect to the
    flow of the solar wind and space plasma. The situation
    depends on varying conditions affecting the flow of
    plasma to the Earth.”

  133. oldbrew says:

    RJS: this other paper might be worth a look…

    ‘It was found in (Litvinenko, 2012) that the recurrence
    of eclipses is related to the features of the annual variation
    in air temperature anomalies. Examples of recurring features
    in the temperature anomaly distribution in cycles of
    saros and exeligmos were presented. It was found that
    anomalously cold years occur when the eclipses are observed
    in the polar regions.
    Clearly, these interrelations
    cannot arise due to the very short instants when the direct
    solar radiation is screened by the Moon. The effect probably
    arises due to certain configurations of the celestial
    bodies
    , the positions of the lines of nodes and apses of
    their orbits, and the orientations of their rotation axes and
    the Earth’s magnetic field that develop in the Sun–Earth–
    Moon system in the years of certain eclipses and influence
    the flow of solar and space plasmas toward the Earth.’ [bold added]
    (from: Sidorenkov & Zhigailo – link above)

    Also: Synchronization of terrestrial processes with frequencies of the Earth-Moon-Sun system — NS Sidorenkov

  134. Paul Vaughan says:

    From the artificial pedestal, more belief-policing based on false spatiotemporal & geometric assumptions:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/20/the-morality-of-meti-should-we-broadcast-to-let-aliens-know-were-here/

  135. RJ Salvador says:

    The Russians and the Chinese are progressing in climate understanding and most of the rest of the world is delusional.

  136. Ian Wilson says:

    Just pointing out the obvious which I know Paul has highlighted many times before:

    The nearest sub-multiple of the tropical year that is closest to the Draconic month:

    365.242189/13.5 = 27.05497696 days

    which beats with the Draconic month (=27.212221 days J2000)

    (27.212221 x 27.05497696) / (27.212221 – 27.05497696) = 4682.0599759 days
    ______________________________________________= 12.8190557 tropical years
    ______________________________________________= 12.8185583 sidereal years

    As Paul has pointed out – this is very close to the Synodic period of Jupiter and Neptune

    TJ = 11.8618 sidereal years = 4332.59 days
    TN = 164.77 sidereal years = 60182 days
    [Ref: Seligman, Courtney. “Rotation Period and Day Length”]

    TJ x TN / (TN – TJ) = 12.781975 sidereal years

    with an error of 13.36 days (which just happens to be close to half a Draconic month = 13.61 days)

    Of course, half this period ~ 6.4095 tropical/sidereal years is the canonical envelope seen in the Chandler Wobble, as well as the synodic lock for the three largest terrestrial planets:

    4 x SVE = 6.3946 years______where SVE = synodic period of Venus and Earth
    3 x SEM = 6.4059 years___________SEM = synodic period of Earth and Mars
    7 x SVM = 6.3995 years_______and SVM = synodic period of Venus and Mars

    In addition, the point in the Earth’s orbit where the 2nd tidal harmonic occurs (i.e. 1 ¼ TD = 1 ¼ Draconic Year), rotates once around the Sun (with respect to the stars) once every 6.3699 years, as well.

  137. Paul Vaughan says:

    Back in November 2015 I summarized Sidoreknov:

    =
    Terse derivation of Sidorenkov’s lunar subharmonic nearest-annual:

    13 * 27.321582 = 355.180566 days = 0.972452185767477 tropical years
    13 * 27.212221 = 353.758873 days = 0.968559719237255 tropical years
    13 * 27.55455 = 358.20915 days = 0.980744174160165 tropical years
    12 * 29.530589 = 354.367068 days = 0.970224902002696 tropical years

    beats with annual:
    (1)*(0.972452186) / (1 – 0.972452186) = 35.30052067 (Sidorenkov “35.3”)
    (1)*(0.968559719) / (1 – 0.968559719) = 30.80633174 (Sidorenkov omits)
    (1)*(0.980744174) / (1 – 0.980744174) = 50.93233509 (Sidorenkov “50.9”)
    (1)*(0.970224902) / (1 – 0.970224902) = 32.58511196 (Sidorenkov “32.6”)
    =

    I would suggest a simpler origin for 35:

    Harmonic of 6.409527865 nearest semiannual:
    (6.409527865) / 13 = 0.493040605

    (0.5)*(0.493040605) / (0.5 – 0.493040605) = 35.42266293 tropical years

  138. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve shared the needed files and 1 sentence FRI cookbook.
    I hope by now all reading have verified FRI — MEIx coupling firsthand (should take 2 to 5 minutes).

    Satisfyingly dead simple. Very satisfying.

  139. oldbrew says:

    PV: the 35.42266293 tropical years period has a 5:8 ratio with the Hale cycle.

    35.42266293 x 5 = 177.11314 TY
    177.11314 / 8 = 22.139142 TY

  140. Paul Vaughan says:

    35.42266293 tropical years ( = 35.42128833 sidereal years ) is a bi-axial spatiotemporal flow differential between equatorial stratosphere-troposphere (vertical) and tropospheric equator-pole (horizontal).

    See above ( May 13, 2016 at 7:09 pm ) for orthogonal cross-section visualization of harmonic slip-structures. This is an existent orthogonal flow-structure differential by conventional standards.

    Thanks OB for pointing out the 5/8 resonance with (φ/Φ)/(J+S) = 22.13847667 sidereal years.

    Astronomers would need 714583.8815 sidereal years of observations to test the hypothesis that these 2 cycles are not in 5/8 resonance.

    Deviations from perfect resonance with the solar cycle are a function of solar cycle length.

    For those skeptical of Landscheidt’s 35 year “finger cycle” placeholder, this is a conventional alternative.

    Probably this helps clarify the utility of placeholder narratives to help exercise awareness evolution, as we now draw on a reservoir of awareness filled by past contemplation to now efficiently translate into a conventional frame.

  141. Paul Vaughan says:

    There will be deafening public silence accompanying conventional brainstorming about the FRI — MEIx coupling.

    Imagine how insightful it would be (human psychology) observing private deliberations as conventional mainstreamers brainstorm the update to conventional wisdom needed to account for illuminated simple coupling.

    If they’re quantitatively competent and they make the minor 2-5 minute investment to verify correspondence firsthand, they’ll right away reach the stage where they know the internal structure exists, but they’ll be struggling to understand it and give it explicative narrative flesh.

    As its duration grows, the deafening mainstream public silence about this trivial coupling will increasingly underscore mainstream ignorance and instinctive reluctance to be honest and forthright about internal discomfort with private struggles to fit simple observations into a public narrative frame.

    There’s a lesson here about geophysical coupling spatiotemporal order …and incisively about human nature.

  142. Paul Vaughan says:

    Wouldn’t you love to pan mainstream “thinking” about the ENSO FRI-ing pan?

    Johnny Cash foreshadowed the fate of politically misguided climate modelers:

    “I fell into a burning Ring of Fire.

    I went down, down, down
    and the flames went higher.

    And it burns, burns, burns

    The Ring of Fire,

    The Ring of Fire,

    The Ring of Fire.”

  143. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew & Paul,

    What is your best estimates (say to 3 decimal places) for the 11.07 year VEJ cycle?

    I usually think of this as time it takes Jupiter to move 90 degrees away from the axis that is formed by the alignment of Venus and the Earth once every 1.5987 sidereal years. Paul, I think you were quoting a figure like 11.068? or something like that.

    This time needs to be distinguished from the 11.19 sid. year VEJ cycle.

    This is = 7 x VE = 7 x 1.5987 sid. years = 11.191 sid. years.

    (where VE = 1.5987 sid. year is the synodic period of Venus and the Earth)

    The reason that I ask is that we have long known that the ~ 179 year Jose cycle of the planets was a simple multiple of the length of the Hale cycle such that :

    Jose cycle / 8 ~ Hale Cycle length

    179 / 8 = 22.38 sid. years OR 179 / 16 = 11.19 sid. years

    Thanks to oldbrew and Paul’s posts I have noticed that:

    177.088 / 8 = 22.136 sid. years OR 177.088 / 16 = 11.068 sid yrs.

    As I have pointed out in the following blog post:

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2016/03/there-is-natural-gleissberg-like-cycle.html

    There is a natural Gleissberg-like alignment cycle between the times where the lunar line-of-apse points towards or away from the Sun and the seasonal calendar which has a natural period of

    177.005 sid. years [N.B. 177.005 / 2 = 88.503 sid. years.]

    which is very close to the 16 x 11.068 sid. year = 8 x 11.068 sid. year VEJ cycle.

  144. oldbrew says:

    81 Jupiter-Earth conjunctions and 10 lunar apsidal cycles look like a good match.
    That would be just under half of 177 sidereal years: 88.45676y for J-E.

  145. oldbrew says:

    673 / 19 = 35.421052
    see comment: May 19, 2016 at 3:21 pm

    Find two planetary events that differ by 19 occurrences in 673 years and the 35.421~yr. period is ‘solved’ – potentially😉

    For example: (the beat period of) the Hale cycle and the J-S trigon (3 J-S) would be very close.
    Theoretically perhaps: 8 Hale = 3 J-S trigons = 5 x 35.42~y (5 = 8-3)

  146. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ian, answering your question:

    (φ/Φ)/(J+S) = 22.13847667 years
    (22.13847667) / 2 = 11.06923834 years

    1/JEV = 22.13929985 years
    (22.13929985) / 2 = 11.06964992 years

  147. oldbrew says:

    Also: J+N = 11.066008 years

  148. oldbrew says:

    For the Farmers, the Biofuel Bubble has Already Burst

    ‘The problem with government intervention in markets of any kind is eventually the market adapts, and more and more distortion is needed to maintain prices.’
    http://blog.heartland.org/2016/05/for-the-farmers-the-biofuel-bubble-has-already-burst/

  149. Paul Vaughan says:

    classy Φ 5:1 gold stars expose wuwts guarded

  150. oldbrew says:

    Record Snow Across Northern Hemisphere and it’s Almost Summer | Mini Ice Age 2015-2035

    Is 3.5 inches of snow in USA in mid-May a ‘dusting?’ Some media think so.
    H/T Ice Age Now
    http://iceagenow.info/winter-refuses-give-msm-disinforms-video/

  151. oldbrew says:

    Professor: ‘Madness’ of fighting global warming will impoverish everyone

    Cambridge University electrical engineering professor Dr. M.J. Kelly concluded in a peer-reviewed journal article that attempts to fight global warming with green energy will impoverish the world.

    The Monday article found reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions enough to actually slow global warming in a measurable way simply isn’t possible without significantly reducing standards of living by plunging most of the world into poverty, destitution and starvation.

    http://www.cfact.org/2016/05/24/professor-madness-of-fighting-global-warming-will-impoverish-everyone/

  152. oldbrew says:

    Another headache for climate spin doctors…
    ‘Washington DC – Coolest May high temperatures since 1882’

    Iceagenow comments:
    So what does the Washington Post say about this? Their headline reads, “D.C.’s worst May ever, explained.” They flounder around a bit with their explanation, but the sentence I love is, “It is perfectly normal for the D.C. area to be caught in the jet stream’s meandering flow during May.” It’s like they’re trying to make it sound normal!
    http://iceagenow.info/washington-dc-coolest-may-high-temperatures-since-1882/

    Unlike warming events, it’s down to ‘bad luck’ and the jet stream says WashPo.

  153. Paul Vaughan says:

    FRI by the solar wind…

    Test Provocation:
    Solar wind estimates include lunisolar bias. (True or False?)

  154. Paul Vaughan says:

    ENSO’s a spatiotemporal tune played by Sun’s nimble fingers…
    Sun’s geometric sequencing crafts Earth’s spatiotemporal response.

    Aggressive Test Provocation:
    Sunspot number estimates include luisolar bias. (True of False?)

  155. Paul Vaughan says:

    Perhaps lunisolar spatiotemporal distortion biases long-record solar wind estimates, but I wonder if say Ian Wilson or anyone else can demonstrate lunisolar bias in the sunspot number record.

    The shapes in FRI are in sunspot numbers, so it gets a little bit hard in light of this to suggest ENSO & FRI are controlled by the moon.

    It’s important to keep in mind that solar cycle length is a measure of spatiotemporal solar cycle evolution. High-grain measures of solar cycle length index subtle changes of the shape of solar cycling (both spatial & temporal).

    VEI clusters correspond best with kinks in the solar wind record, but FRI (spatiotemporal index of VEI) coherence is stronger with high-grain measures of solar cycle length.

    Interestingly, where there is one very notable VEI pause, QBO touches the troposphere. I suggest a new line of investigation: Separating QBO from ENSO both quantitatively and conceptually.

    While the solar wind is the primary ENSO agent, the lunar nodes modulate (via conventional QBO, SAO, year flow-architecture cycling (96 year re-lacing)) response amplitude by pressuring/steering explosive injections into the stratosphere (as opposed to just the troposphere).

    Please note well the qualitative conceptual implications (threshold effect) for spatiotemporal statistical aggregates. Injections either do or do not penetrate topologically distinct flow structures in the stratosphere (versus the troposphere). Thus it’s not sensible to interpret statistics without clear awareness of physical aliasing.

  156. Paul Vaughan says:

    “The EU is planning penalties for parties that do not represent ‘the values of the EU”
    http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/26/eu-reveals-its-inner-arrogance-floats-plan-to-punish-parties-that-dont-represent-eu-norms/

    Today I saw a G7 photo and noticed there were 9 (not 7) “leaders”.
    2 individuals in the photo looked decisively out-of-place and not-the-slightest concerned with optics. (They looked rather annoyed to have to pose & posture at all.) Reading the caption I learned they represent european council & commission. Does anyone (less ignorant on this file) know if all Europeans get a vote for these positions, deciding who will represent them at the G7? (I’m guessing it doesn’t work that way.)

  157. oldbrew says:

    New Market Report Calls Tesla A ‘Ponzi Scheme’ Similar To Enron
    http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/25/new-market-report-calls-tesla-a-ponzi-scheme-similar-to-enron/

    Who knew?

  158. Paul Vaughan says:

    Reminder:

    Leybourne was working for the US Navy but wrote this outside of work ~2000:

    ENSO tectonic modulation of Pacific basin
    http://www.geostreamconsulting.com/papers/Leybourne_Oceans_Fin.pdf

    I would have pared the article down to less than a single page.
    Figure 4 is worth a look along with the suggestion of mantle flow structures analogous to atmosphere.

    They were trying really hard to wrap their minds around a tantalizing empirical trail, but they missed a key systematic component of the structure (systematically reversing spatial spin of temporal coupling according to global meridional flux).

  159. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s another study (Mann = co-author) where the ring spin change with meridional flux sign change was overlooked:

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/Adamsetal-Nature03.pdf

    There are a whole string of papers along with a flood of controversy, all caused by false (lazy &/or naive …&/or deceptive) assumptions about the spatial structure of temporal evolution.

  160. oldbrew says:

    30-second video of sprites.

    See ‘SPRITES (AND SOMETHING MORE) OVER OKLAHOMA’ here:
    http://www.spaceweather.com/

    What is a pop-through gigantic jet? Lightning scientist Oscar van der Velde of the Technical University of Catalonia explains: “A cluster of sprites can actually warp Earth’s ionosphere, bringing it down from its usual altitude of 90 km to only 40 km.” This sets the stage for the jet.

    “The sprite cluster triggers an upward-directed discharge which in the past received fancy names as ‘troll’ or ‘palm tree’,” says van der Velde. “A satellite-based study by Taiwanese researchers in 2012 found them similar to gigantic jets–large isolated discharges reaching from the thundercloud toward the ionosphere. In case of a ‘pop-through gigantic jet,’ the lowering of the ionosphere is not uniform and the jet may then reach higher than the bottom tendrils of the sprite.”

  161. Paul Vaughan says:

    Pukite points to SAO, year, & QBO (from atmosphere, ocean, & hydrology) in GPS:

    The Quasi-Biennial Vertical Oscillations at Global GPS Stations: Identification by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
    http://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/15/10/26096/htm

    “Figure 3. 269 GPS stations over the globe are tested from the IGS and regional networks. The red doted 89 sites have both the seasonal and quasi-biennial signals, and the blue doted sites have only the seasonal signals.”

  162. oldbrew says:

    ‘Stars with planets on strange orbits: what’s going on?’

    ‘Based on a sample of one system, astronomers once expected most planetary systems to have small, rocky planets (like Earth) orbiting close to their host star, and massive, Jupiter-like planets orbiting farther out.

    With the discovery of the first exoplanets, this simple model was shattered. Those planets, the Hot Jupiters, were different from anything we had expected.’
    http://phys.org/news/2016-05-stars-planets-strange-orbits.html

    Maybe our solar system is the one with the strange orbits.

  163. ralfellis says:

    Re: Ice Age warming controlled by Albedo, not CO2.
    New Peer-Review Science Paper.
    Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks.

    You will be pleased to know that my science paper on ice ages has passed peer-review and is scheduled to be published in Geoscience Frontiers on1st July. The most interesting aspect of this paper, is that the primary temperature feedback controlling ice ages has been demonstrated to be albedo, not CO2. And if albedo controls ice age temperatures, it is also likely to be the major feedback agent controlling the modern climate.

    This is the Science Direct prototype copy.
    Doi: 10.1016/j.gsf.2016.04.004
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2016.04.004
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/aip/16749871

    The Science Direct copy is not in its final format and has separate images and tables, which is not my favourite format. In contrast, the following non-peer-review copy on Academia . edu has embedded images. The two papers are exactly the same.

    Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks
    (With embedded photos and tables)
    https://www.academia.edu/20051643/Modulation_of_Ice_Ages_via_Precession_and_Dust-Albedo_Feedbacks

    Also enclosed is a short 2-page easy-read summary of the full paper.

    Sincerely,
    Ralph Ellis

    Abstract

    We present here a simple and novel proposal for the modulation and rhythm of ice-ages and interglacials during the late Pleistocene. While the standard Milankovitch-precession theory fails to explain the long intervals between interglacials, these can be accounted for by a novel forcing and feedback system involving CO2, dust and albedo. During the glacial period, the high albedo of the northern ice sheets drives down global temperatures and CO2 concentrations, despite subsequent precessional forcing maxima. Over the following millennia more CO2 is sequestered in the oceans and atmospheric concentrations eventually reach a critical minima of about 200 ppm, which combined with arid conditions, causes a die-back of temperate and boreal forests and grasslands, especially at high altitude. The ensuing soil erosion generates dust storms, resulting in increased dust deposition and lower albedo on the northern ice sheets. As northern hemisphere insolation increases during the next Milankovitch cycle, the dust-laden ice-sheets absorb considerably more insolation and undergo rapid melting, which forces the climate into an interglacial period. The proposed mechanism is simple, robust, and comprehensive in its scope, and its key elements are well supported by empirical evidence.

    I can send you the short 2-page article.

    Ralph

    [reply] please do

  164. Paul Vaughan says:

    Ralph,
    Even when brilliantly concise, words can’t and don’t do well enough.
    The best way to search the web for info on climate is via image search.
    Aren’t you going to post the money-graph here in Suggestions-18?

  165. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here, let me put these 2 side-by-side to remind people again of the equator:


    [Credit: Clive Best]


    [Credit: Paul Vaughan]

    Left-wing infiltraitor spatial distortion cops go to great lengths to brainwash hilariously gullible right-wingers with political narratives based on false geometric assumptions. I used to find it creepy, but increasingly I just find it funny.

    The sooner these people get cut from the discussion, the better. They’ve set us back at least a full decade and that has been too costly.

    They’ve only been so effective because of the protection of a key host affording sanctuary on artificial pedestals. The preferred tactic of adminstraitors is to build in delays. The key left pointman in the right place at the left time accomplished delay. Was it 8 years or a decade? Let’s just call it a lost decade.

    You can build delays in with red tape, but red tape can be cut by a new regime with a fresh outlook. The real legacy test is endurance of regime change. Narrative architecture patched with geometrically distorted red tape will eventually be cut.

  166. Paul Vaughan says:

    I always have a very hearty laugh whenever I recall WE’s depiction of June insolation at the equator. The audience didn’t even object to WE’s suggestion that June insolation is what matters at the equator.

  167. oldbrew says:

    “If I asked you what is the most corrupt place on Earth you might tell me well it’s Afghanistan, maybe Greece, Nigeria, the South of Italy and I will tell you it’s the UK” – Italian anti-mafia writer Roberto Saviano

    “It’s not the bureaucracy, it’s not the police, it’s not the politics but what is corrupt is the financial capital. 90 per cent of the owners of capital in London have their headquarters offshore.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/05/29/britain-is-most-corrupt-country-on-earth-says-mafia-expert-rober/

  168. oldbrew says:

    BBC: ‘Secret German WW2 code machine found on eBay’

    A historic machine used to swap top secret messages between Hitler and his generals has been found languishing in a shed in Essex.

    “My colleague was scanning eBay and he saw a photograph of what seemed to be the teleprinter,” said John Wetter, a volunteer at the museum.

    He then went to Southend to investigate further where he found the keyboard being kept, in its original case, on the floor of a shed “with rubbish all over it”.

    “We said ‘Thank you very much, how much was it again?’ She said ‘£9.50’, so we said ‘Here’s a £10 note – keep the change!'”
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36401663

  169. Paul Vaughan says:

    Pierre Gosselin need not show Anthony Watts respect he doesn’t deserve:
    http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/28/solar-deniers-face-harsh-times-flurry-of-new-studies-cern-show-suns-massive-impact-on-global-climate/#comment-1108562
    Just show him the door Pierre. And don’t let him back in.

  170. oldbrew says:

    ‘Remarks made by the head of Australia’s peak science body in a secret recording will do little to assuage fears the country will lose much of its climate science capacity amid severe budget cuts.’

    ‘According to the ABC, half of the assembled scientists had walked out by mid-meeting. Groans and the occasional expletive can be heard throughout.’
    http://mashable.com/2016/05/28/recording-csiro-larry-marshall/

    ‘Marshall has run into controversy for appearing to suggest the case for climate science is closed. In the tape, he attempts to clarify his remarks, suggesting the focus should be on adaptation to climate change.’

    The word ‘whingers’ springs to mind😉

  171. Paul Vaughan says:

    The most evil solar denier of all is a left-wing infiltrator posing as a right-wing leader to facilitate brutal oppression of sun-climate truth. It’s the most important mission of all. Without success on that crucial mission, they never had a hope.

    NTZ is a place I would hope we be a safe haven.
    Why was that creep even allowed in the room?

    Denier is exactly the right word. The belief policing at the American venues has been brutally oppressive. They decided they were going to enforce a narrative based on false spatiotemporal assumptions and they abused their power pushing hatefully and viciously for the psychological slaughter of anyone daring to show due appreciation and respect to our domineering sun. The aggression was severe and the cause was 100% unwarranted. It’s hate crime and the oppressors should be stripped of their powers.

    [mod note] the ‘d word’ always triggers moderation

  172. oldbrew says:

    Storm Elvira battering parts of central Europe…more to come say forecasters.

    ‘Devastating storms thrash Germany

    Dozens of people have been injured after bad weather struck Germany over the weekend. Lightning and thunderstorms have also affected the neighboring countries of Poland and France.’
    http://www.dw.com/en/devastating-storms-thrash-germany/g-19291455

    Tales of bulldozers being used to clear giant hailstones.

    ‘Meteorological experts have forecast more bad weather for the coming days. Storms and heavy rain are expected to occur almost all over Germany well into next week.’

    The German national football team had to take a 40 minute half-time break due to a sudden storm.
    http://www.dw.com/en/german-fans-laid-back-slovakians-celebrate-downpour-threatened-contest/a-19292492

  173. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 19 now.

    ================================================================

  174. tom0mason says:

    You may be interested in this report on research fraud http://cen.acs.org/articles/94/i26/USGS-finds-data-fraud-closes.html

    I wonder when are they to look at all the other government dodgy data developers?

    Reminder – we’re on Suggestions 19 now [mod]

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