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Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.
The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎
Link back to Suggestions 18
[for viewing only please]
Body Of Proof: Large Number Of Studies Show Medieval Warm Period “Prominent In Southern Hemisphere”
http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/31/body-of-proof-large-number-of-studies-show-medieval-warm-period-prominent-in-southern-hemisphere
It was always difficult to see how a rotating globe with atmospheric and ocean circulation could isolate a long-term climate change to one hemisphere, or even part of one.
Alexander J. Mustill et al. Is there an exoplanet in the Solar system?
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters (2016). DOI: 10.1093/mnrasl/slw075
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-05-theft-planet-solar.html
It requires a lot more research before it can be ascertained that Planet 9 is the first exoplanet in our solar system. If the theory is correct, Alexander Mustill believes that the study of space and the understanding of the sun and the Earth will take a giant leap forward.
“This is the only exoplanet that we, realistically, would be able to reach using a space probe”, he says.
It’s time to drag this out as a reminder:
The key to solar wind — ENSO — volcano coupling:
FYI I’m using Panama Canal as a placeholder. (I’m sure some of you figured that out.)
QBO is not a component of ENSO. It’s a contaminant.
Below is an update to May1st 2016 of the LOD model.
The earth has slowed down this spring faster than the model predicted but still within 2 standard deviations of the models prediction.
Below is a graphic of the model with the lower 2 standard deviation line included in light blue. This type of deviation occurs within the correlation period as well.
[reply] thanks RJ
Report: ‘The world is about to install 700 million air conditioners.’
“We expect that the demand for cooling as economies improve, particularly in hot climates, is going to be an incredible driver of electricity requirements,” U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said in an interview.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/05/31/the-world-is-about-to-install-700-million-air-conditioners-heres-what-that-means-for-the-climate/
‘Overall, the Berkeley report projects that the world is poised to install 700 million air conditioners by 2030, and 1.6 billion of them by 2050. In terms of electricity use and greenhouse gas emissions, that’s like adding several new countries to the world.’
—
One of the few applications where solar panels could make any kind of sense.
Alarmists: how about a positive feedback loop?
More A/C = more electricity = more GHG = more warming = more A/C [repeat ad infinitum] – yeah.
Ring the alarm bells, pile on the doom and gloom. Go!
Holistic Vision Aid…
Venus Transit Cycle Origin:
[J-(√5)S]/2 = 1/239.1089279
8V-13E = 1/238.9324164
[J-(√5)S]/2 = 8V-13E
96, including N-S solar asymmetry:
2[(5E-3V)-(J+S)] = 2Φ[J-(√5)S]
9-11 IPO:
(5E-3V)-(J+S) = Φ[J-(√5)S]
Time-only approaches to ENSO modeling fail to account for this (folded) geometry.
*crack*
ERSSTv3b2 multidecadal EOF 2 vs. 3
Forthcoming:
lunar nodal & anomalistic month (confounding) tie-in
Reminder:
ERSSTv4 misrepresents spatiotemporal pattern for political purposes.
King Tut’s Blade Made of Meteorite
—
Comelli and colleagues also investigated the possible source of the iron blade.
“We took into consideration all meteorites found within an area of 2,000 km in radius centered in the Red Sea, and we ended up with 20 iron meteorites,” Comelli said.
“Only one, named Kharga, turned out to have nickel and cobalt contents which are possibly consistent with the composition of the blade,” she added.
The meteorite fragment was found in 2000 on a limestone plateau at Mersa Matruh, a seaport some 150 miles west of Alexandria.
– See more at: http://www.space.com/33037-king-tut-blade-made-of-meteorite.html
New Science 25: Seven possible ways the sun could change our cloud cover
http://joannenova.com.au/2016/06/new-science-25-seven-possible-ways-the-sun-could-change-our-cloud-cover/
Study Reveals Physics Of Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/06/01/dansgaard-oeschger-oscillations/
Researchers explain the physics of Northern Hemisphere warming and cooling cycles, called Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations, that occurred during the last ice age in a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters. Complex computer modelling study agrees well with measurements obtained from Greenland ice core records of the Earth’s past temperature variations providing an insight into the physics driving Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations, a remarkable glacial climate phenomenon.
From the University of Toronto
California Senate Sidelines Bill To Prosecute Climate Sceptics
– See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/california-senate-sidelines-bill-to-prosecute-climate-sceptics/
First global map of flow within the Earth’s mantle finds the surface is moving up and down “like a yo-yo”
“Although we’re talking about timescales that seem incredibly long to you or me, in geological terms, the Earth’s surface bobs up and down like a yo-yo,” said Dr Mark Hoggard of Cambridge’s Department of Earth Sciences, the paper’s lead author. “Over a period of a million years, which is our standard unit of measurement, the movement of the mantle can cause the surface to move up and down by hundreds of metres.”
—
“These results will have wider reaching implications, such as how we map the circulation of the world’s oceans in the past, which are affected by how quickly the sea floor is moving up and down and blocking the path of water currents,” said Hoggard. “Considering that the surface is moving much faster than we had previously thought, it could also affect things like the stability of the ice caps and help us to understand past climate change.”
Source: University of Cambridge [May 10, 2016]
Read more at http://archaeologynewsnetwork.blogspot.com/2016/05/first-global-map-of-flow-within-earths.html#o9pFSddvhHEx11uo.99
Great Barrier Reef reality check
Activist scientists and lobby groups have distorted surveys, maps and data to misrepresent the extent and impact of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, according to the chairman of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Russell Reichelt.
A full survey of the reef released yesterday by the authority and the Australian Institute of Marine Science said 75 per cent of the reef would escape unscathed.
Dr Reichelt said the vast bulk of bleaching damage was confined to the far northern section off Cape York, which had the best prospect of recovery due to the lack of onshore development and high water quality.
http://www.thegwpf.com/great-barrier-reef-scientists-exaggerated-coral-bleaching/
Elevated CO2 and Temperature Enhance the Grain Yield and Quality of Rice
http://www.cato.org/blog/elevated-co2-temperature-enhance-grain-yield-quality-rice
Forgetting that NASA astronauts include numerous ‘climate sceptics’, fanatics want to ‘send a sceptic to space’ to somehow convince them a trace gas is responsible for slightly warming the Earth.
NASA’s Finest Are Climate Skeptics
Unlike the pathetic little weasels at GISS, NASA’s finest are climate skeptics.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/nasas-finest-are-climate-skeptics/
“What have you learned from Tibetan ice cores?
They have given us a glimpse of Tibet’s climate history going back to more than half a million years. We learned that the extent of glaciation is related to how far monsoonal rains penetrate the Tibetan Plateau. This is in step with the slow wobbling of Earth’s rotational axis, which drives tropical rainfall in 21,000-year cycles. We also identified periods when average temperatures in Tibet went up and down by several degrees Celsius in roughly 200-year cycles. It’s still a mystery why that was the case, but we suspect this may be related to the 205-year cycle of solar activity.”
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/investigating-climate-change-the-hard-way-at-earth-s-icy-third-pole/
If anyone sees the actual paper, please let us know. (I’ll be digging in this area moving forward.)
This emphasizes tropical hydrology (rather than polar temperature), so it can help with conceptual corrections needed in the climate discussion. (too many misconceptions about the role of precession — what it does affect vs. what it doesn’t)
PV: is this the abstract?
http://agu.confex.com/agu/fm15/webprogram/Paper74775.html
The Lonnie Thompson thing was an invited lecture:
Invited Lectures and Outreach Activities (482 total)
2016 The Bernard and Susan Master, Moonlight on the Marsh Distinguished Lecture
Series, Florida Gulf Coast University. Climate Change: The Evidence, People, and Our
Options. January 14. Fort Myers, Florida.
2015 High-amplitude, Centennial-scale Climate Oscillations During the Last Glacial in the
Western Third Pole as Recorded in the Guliya Ice Cap, AGU GC22E The Third Pole
Environment (TPE) under Global Changes II Session. December 15, San Francisco,
California.
But given the number of times he has visited this ice cap over the years, the same observations may well be contained in one of his earlier papers.
http://research.bpcrc.osu.edu/Icecore/vitae/lgt_cv.pdf
You can see precession in figure 3 here:
ftp://ftp.gps.caltech.edu/pub/avouac/Tibet_Holocene_Climate/Thompson_Science1997.pdf
There polar methane matches tropical hydrology, indicating a tropical methane source for the poles at those times.
Party media coverage here:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-11/18/content_22479840.htm
Too often climate discussion participants have the wrong expectations of precession, so whatever was done in the past here and whatever they may add to it moving forward with new sampling initiatives may provide a good educational opportunity. We’re running into the analog with discussion of multidecadal and it’s not clear why so so so many people just assume all climate variables all move together in unison. It’s gets more than a little creepy quite often watching people assume the hydrological system is some kind of uniform linear function of global average temperature or something like that, however it is they imagine it.
Here’s an old page “Last Updated: 08/09/97” :
http://research.bpcrc.osu.edu/Icecore/China.html
Here’s somewhere to watch for anything new:
http://research.bpcrc.osu.edu/Icecore/publications/
3 Saturn-Uranus conjunctions = φ (1.6189) Uranus orbits in just over 34 x 4 years (136.01514y)
Multiply by 21:
34 U = 63 S-U = 97 S (34+63 = 97) in 34 x 21 x 4 years (2856.318y)
Multiply by 13:
39 S-U = 89 J-S = 128 J-U (39+89 = 128) in 34 x 13 x 4 years (~1768 years)
3,13,21,34 and 89 are Fibonacci numbers.
The smallest number of years that has a whole number of Earth rotations is 4 (365.25 x 4 = 1461 days).
Ratio of rotation periods U:S (h=hours) = 17.24h:10.656h = 1.6178678:1 = ~φ:1
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/planetfact.html
clarification (since OB now appears to be following a different convention):
above
Φ = 1/φ = 2/(1+√5) = φ-1 = 0.618033988749895
φ = (1+√5)/2 = 1.61803398874989
[reply] corrected, thanks
Professor Lonnie Thompson (the man in the links above) made a very important discovery on the Quelccaya ice cap about 2008. Suddenly frozen plants preserved at the receding ice edge for ~5000years (number subsequently revised downwards). That is more important than anything else because the sudden changes are not modeled in any mathematical model.
All models are secular in effect, none cover transient events. The evidence for transient events is there (several), and the effect of transient events may override anything else.
Example: A jump in obliquity (as per Dodwell 14.5 to 24) would lower temperatures at tropics (tropics would be at 14.5 where Quelccaya is and would experience maximum solar heat input reduction. if it occurred in summer there, permanent ice cover would suddenly increase) but raise heat input and temp near poles.
Typo alert
above
” 9-11 IPO:
(5E-3V)-(J+S) = Φ[J-(√5)S] “
should read
9-11 IPO:
4[(5E-3V)-(J+S)] = 4Φ[J-(√5)S]
clarification:
2[(5E-3V)-(J+S)] = 1/96.69017963
2Φ[J-(√5)S] = 1/96.72159311
I hope NASA JPL has by now answered the question I raised in ERSST EOF 1234 (IPO – polar motion geometry).
QBO isn’t lunisolar; it’s 100% solar. I’m working on solar wind and HMF again now in connection with volcano and ENSO timing and spacing.
ENSO is timed and shaped by the solar wind and you can bet your life on it.
The tyrannic strategy shift pushing to illegalize climate realism underscores that the international community is developing (long overdue) resistance to darkly underhanded California-based sun-climate belief policing campaigns.
The climate discussion has been set back at least a decade because people submitted to abusive harassment enforcing false geometric assumptions (notably egregiously false (always hidden from readers and implicitly assumed) north-south terrestrial geography assumptions).
The only sensible option is to boycott corrupt California venues. They can’t be reformed. They’re heavily infiltrated and fatally compromised. Participation indicates (A) submission to the imagined uniform geography of tyrannical dictators and (B) support for illegalization of respect for nature.
We know it’s there, we just can’t see it yet.
OB linked to Jo & David’s latest:
=
New Science 25: Seven possible ways the sun could change our cloud cover
http://joannenova.com.au/2016/06/new-science-25-seven-possible-ways-the-sun-could-change-our-cloud-cover/
=
I can again suggest someone fund them to specifically extend their exploration to include spatial dimensions. For example they would then realize that any interhemispheric flow related to interhemispheric polar ozone phasing (1/4 solar Schwabe cycle difference) would in theory be governed by solar cycle length …and that theory matches observation.
Reminder:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/paul-vaughan-noaa-corruption-of-sst-records/
Ignoring spatial heterogeneity takes human recognition of sun-climate geometry exactly nowhere.
The Californian cultural export enterprise in its hubristic sense of dictatorial entitlement will go as far as illegalizing nature appreciation and respect to artificially maintain an edge for Hollywood fantasy exports threatened by crushing competition in a market open to our domineering yellow star.
http://joannenova.com.au/2016/06/defcon1-legal-threat-californias-near-miss-on-new-laws-to-jail-climate-skeptics/
Australian friends: You can have a military alliance with Americans WITHOUT submitting to Californian cultural imperialism. Really simple suggestion: Divorce unneeded entanglement of the 2. On military cooperation give them a clear “Yes!” and on submission to deluded Californian cultural imperialism give them a clear “No!!” The military contract is strong and it doesn’t say you have to submit to Californian sun-climate belief policing based on geometrically impossible spatiotemporal assumptions.
Re Andrew’s link, there’s a mistake in the abstract:
‘If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle’
should read
‘If we are to determine whether human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle’
Even then they are begging the question by assuming ‘human-induced climate change’ is a significant factor, without convincing evidence.
That article clarifies that climate discussion is dead.
Tallbloke
Is the UKIP bus coming to Newcastle upon Tyne ?
Emailed UKIP HQ a couple of times to no avail
QBO 101
Solar equatorial rotation period was empirically estimated to be 27.03 days (Neugebauer, Smith, Ruzmaikin, Feynman, & Vaughan (2000)).
Anything from 27.025 to 27.035 days rounds off to 27.03 days.
That’s a range of plus or minus 7 minutes 12 seconds.
Suppose it’s 27.03123117 days, which is 1 minute 46 seconds more than 27.03 days.
Circulation-wise how would this aggregate with east-west terrestrial asymmetry?
harmonic of 27.03123117 days nearest 1 day:
(27.03123117) / 27 = 1.00115671
(1.00115671)*(1) / (1.00115671 – 1) = 865.5210016 days
(865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718033 tropical years
CW 101
Semi-daily aggregation:
Harmonic of 27.03123117 nearest 1/2 day:
27.03123117 / 54 = 0.500578355
(0.500578355)*(0.5) / (0.500578355 – 0.5) = 432.7605008 days
(432.7605008) / 365.242189 = 1.184859016 = tropical years
Solar cycle length is a spatial indicator of off-equator solar rotation rate (which varies with tilt as sunspot belts cycle equatorward). Solar cycle length is a parameter of heliospheric geometry.
A time-only view is insufficient. Solar cycle length is a spatial indicator of heliospheric geometry. It summarizes aggregation in the presence of asymmetry.
Reminder:
Solar cycle length estimates listed here are too coarse to be of any climate — or more generally geophysical or heliophysical — diagnostic utility:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles
Assessment of 99.999% of climate discussion participants on solar cycle length:
Far, far beyond incompetent, with absolute zero improvement over time.
Comment on the human psychology at play:
People ignore the spatial dimensions and pretend uniformity — i.e. they falsely assume flow patterns are somehow magically independent of physical asymmetries such as north-south land-ocean distribution. It’s beyond ridiculous.
The interhemispheric difference in Schwabe solar cycle ozone phasing is +1/4 cycle (north leads south).
Solar cycles vary in length.
A constant north-south 1/4 solar cycle phase difference varies (in absolute length) with solar cycle length.
It’s not a difficult chain of logic to follow.
Ozone shapes and paces circulation.
Interhemispheric ozone gradients shape and pace meridional circulation.
Solar cycle length (which shapes and paces interhemispheric ozone gradients) meridionally shapes and paces circulation.
Observations CLEARLY point to the role of solar cycle length:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/paul-vaughan-noaa-corruption-of-sst-records/
Go for it ozone modelers.
You have the recipe.
Wire the model up for the observed pole-pole 1/4 solar cycle phase difference and you can match the illustrated observations.
Then you can start more subtle arguments about temperature gradients and wind fields aloft, acquiring grant money to pursue this.
Maybe one day you will advance to considering the finer-resolution solar-destruction of ozone in non-uniform pattern (along with directional flow consequences). Who says the solar wind always has uniform and symmetric impact?! (Like as if!) Location and orientation of destructive solar impact matter? Location of (and evolution of location of) ozone matters? Same shot hitting different spot at different angle and different time with different amount of ozone there? Different gradient direction (and therefore consequent flow) resulting for different pattern of solar ozone destruction? Therefore opposite or orthogonal effect is feasible? It’s spatiotemporal, not just temporal??
Start with the easy stuff solar-ozone modelers. You can at least model the multidecadal solar cycle length meridional attractor without too much difficulty. (I suspect bright modelers will be able to mimic observations quite easily.)
That will give a basis from which to diligently work towards finer-resolution details moving forward. You needed somewhere to start and now you have it.
I may release a monthly resolution solar cycle length time series if there are good, harmonious solar-ozone modelers who are ready to get serious about multidecadal climate.
I agree: Bill Illis calls BS on recent ENSO supposed “bombshell study”:
=
Bill Illis
June 9, 2016 at 5:37 pm
I think the El Nino’s and La Nina’s just fluctuate from year to year up and down. It is really just a natural short-term oscillation of +/- 2.5C. There can be two or three year events but not a decade and certainly not hundreds of years.
The mechanisms which drive the ENSO operate on short time-frames of under two years. The drivers are what dictates what it does.
Maybe they are just picking up the overall 400 year cycles of the climate like the Little Ice Age and MWP and Dark Ages and Roman Warm Period etc. The ENSO did not cause these swings. There is also some type of 60 year climate cycle as well and that is not ENSO-related either but it more likely to be caused by the AMO cycles.
Maybe they are trying to raise the alarm that global warming will cause a permanent El Nino (or a 400 year long one). They have tried this before and people on their side of the debate fall for it every time.
=
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/09/study-past-el-ninos-may-have-amplified-global-climate-fluctuations-for-hundreds-of-years-at-a-time/#comment-2233997
– – –
There’s another silly article up over there suggesting Trump changed his mind about climate because of climategate. That’s an awfully rude and degrading suggestion. The only thing that matters: Does Trump appreciate and respect that the sun dominates terrestrial nature? Note well that this question is NOT answered by saying “He opposes AGW.”
“My father always told me that what’s wrong with lying is that it’s an admission of weakness. If you’re the strongest, you can afford to tell the truth.”
K. J. PARKER, Evil for Evil
Cameron tell porkys (pigs again) So Farage must be the stronger !
Cameron’s going after younger voters
“The trust of the innocent is the liar’s most useful tool.”
STEPHEN KING, Needful Things
You can’t assume uniformity!!!
Recent paper thoughtfully discussing aliasing, aggregation, & uncertainty of spatiotemporal OZONE-temperature correlations at diurnal (1 day), semi-annual (SAO), quasi-biennial (QBO), solar cycle (11 year), & secular (trend) timescales:
http://www.ann-geophys.net/34/29/2016/angeo-34-29-2016.pdf
Caution: Like with the recent wuwt article on EL NINO – LA NINA / RAINFALL correlations (where deep spatiotemporal diagnostics such as gridded bivariate seasonal scatterplot matrices with residuals are needed on map-level aggregates to ascertain that severe interpretive errors are not being committed), the observation series (QUITE LIMITINGLY & QUITE UNFORTUNATELY) span only a VERY short period of time.
And to think Nigel got criticised in the Cameron debate over his warnings as being scaremongering
He always in the end gets proved right
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3636665/Four-Syrian-immigrants-sexually-assaulted-14-year-old-girl-Newcastle-park-just-weeks-invited-UK-Government-refugee-relocation-scheme.html
Those voting in to remain are just living in Denial
In 2015 Natalya Kilifarska argued that THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT is a function of solar activity:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283211446_Bi-decadal_solar_influence_on_climate_mediated_by_near_tropopause_ozone
She stresses the role of north-south SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY and suggests:
North: galactic cosmic rays (GCR), ionization, geomagnetic field gradient
South: solar energetic particles, secular geomagnetics
Not perfect, but usefully provocative.
A pithy overview of her life’s work (4 pages max) would be welcome — a handful of key graphs along with a list of key observed spatial heterogeneities. The less formal the better.
If she’s right, THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT is a function of solar cycle length. Suddenly modeling the greenhouse effect would then become interesting.
The climate changes and changes back again. Especially in Australia.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-17/queensland-drought-photos-before-after/7035610
Let’s see if we can correct the mainstream narrative on solar & volcanic effects on ozone:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2010/twentyquestions/Q14.pdf
Tip # 1 : spatial dimensions and geometry !
The TED Talk scam of the so called expert
http://digg.com/video/ted-talk-parody
Interhemispheric Sun-Climate O-Zonal 101:
That will be enough for bright o-zonal modelers to quickly get the multidecadal meridional job done to first order without further unnecessary delay.
Course:
Sun-Climate 101
Assignment # 4:
1. Graph the residuals for north and south. (1.5)
2. Graph the area-weighted global residuals. (1.5)
3. Isolate and graph the BDO (bidecadal oscillation) from the area-weighted global residuals (remembering that BDO’s origin is an east-west, not north-south asymmetry). (4)
4. Calculate BDO r^2. (0.5)
5. Diagnose BDO residuals (2) and report their r^2. (0.5)
/10 (marking scheme bracketed)
Due: June 23, 2015 — overdue by almost 1 year but without further delay excellent late submissions may earn partial credit — see immediately above (June 15, 2016 at 6:57 am) for answers from assignments #2 & 3 needed for assignment #4.
Assignment #4 Q2 hint for Sun-Climate 101 students:
Proportion of global area north & south of thermal equator:
=+0.5-SIN(2*PI()*8.476423972/360)/2
=+0.5+SIN(2*PI()*8.476423972/360)/2
(Copy & paste into Excel.)
Interesting that the Antikythera Mechanism appears to have been able to calculate several planetary rotations.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/15/antikythera_mechanism_inscriptions_deciphered/
The QBO is causing a kerfuffle https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/743179000177037312
A query to those more knowledgeable than I. What do you imagine is the mechanism behind the variations in the spin of the Earth on its axis measured as variation in the length of day?
Is that same mechanism also responsible for the faster rotation of the Earths atmosphere than the Earth itself in the same direction as the Earth (west to east) but amplified in speed at higher latitudes?
Has anyone compared the speed (u) or direction (v) of the zonal wind in high latitudes of the southern hemisphere with the variations that are observed in the length of day?
Implication: Atmospheric motion is not driven by equatorial heating but via electromagnetic forces that are strongest at the poles.
Is anyone suggesting that the Earths rotation is a product of the interaction of an electric current and a magnetic field?
Some LOD-related posts at the Talkshop:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/?s=LOD
ivan – from Wikipedia: Antikythera
or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antikythera_mechanism#Known_gear_scheme
—
They like their ‘boffins’ at the Register 😉
Halstatt, D-O, & de Vries from annual aliasing of volatility structure of JEV, J-S, & U-N:
(19.86503587)*(11.06923834) / (19.86503587 – 11.06923834) = 24.9995314
(19.86503587)*(11.06923834) / (19.86503587 + 11.06923834) = 7.108323121
The slip cycle of fast & slow (analogous to JEV geometric derivation):
harmonic of 24.9995314 nearest 7.108323121:
24.9995314 / 4 = 6.24988285
(7.108323121)*(6.24988285) / (7.108323121 – 6.24988285) = 51.7522165
Note that every 4th cycle that is going to align with the terrestrial year, so checking the slip on the year:
harmonic of 51.7522165 nearest 1:
51.7522165 / 52 = 0.995234933
(1)*(0.995234933) / (1 – 0.995234933) = 208.860626
harmonic of 208.860626 nearest 1:
208.860626 / 209 = 0.999333139
(1)*(0.999333139) / (1 – 0.999333139) = 1498.562242
(164.79132)*(84.016846) / (164.79132 – 84.016846) = 171.4062162
(171.4062162)*(164.79132) / (171.4062162 – 164.79132) = 4270.098235
(4270.098235)*(1498.562242) / (4270.098235 – 1498.562242) = 2308.830916
Erl, multidecadal meridional wind relates to SCD (a simple consequence of physical asymmetry).
Global wind relates to the integral of solar activity.
Temperature, pressure, wind, & sea surface height are all spatiotemporally coupled, as are earth orientation parameters …demanding holism.
@Erl, hang in there with EMF coupling. Everything in the Universe is connected by fields of energy in concert. Every Electron feels the motion of all the others to some degree. Every Proton is a bar magnet in motion. All coupled in some degree through EMF, Electro Magnetic Fields in motion. Even Gravity will in time be accepted as a manifestation created by these same fields of energy…pg
I’ve been deepening exploration of 96.
I’ve discovered a north-south contrast in the pattern of volcanic-aerosol polar-deposition.
When time permits I’ll illustrate and tie this in with the de Vries, D-O, Halstatt derivations above.
– –
I hope by now everyone has plotted the area-weighted residuals (see June 15, 2016 at 7:36 am) against extended MEI. Easy lesson: You can’t ignore north-south & east-west asymmetry pretending we have a uniform globe.
So once again the test is: Given 2 columns of numbers, can curious participants subtract 1 column of numbers from another …and then (trivially) recognize ENSO? We’ll see!
These are the types of dead-simple tests that yield useful information about why climate discussion so seldom advances.
Is Earth pear-shaped, flat, or round?
This guy lost it (threw propane canister in campfire) when she insisted flat and wouldn’t back down:
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/man-charged-after-fiery-argument-over-whether-earth-is-flat-or-round-1.2945537 (also includes conspiracy to cover up pear-shape)
Not so funny when reflecting on darker chapters in history.
Coral expert prosecuted by Aussie university for noticing that a coral reef still exists
http://motls.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/coral-expert-prosecuted-by-aussie.html
Lubos Motl writes: ‘Peter Ridd is a coral reef expert who used to work with Bob Carter as a postdoc (among others). He has seen lots of evidence that many of the catastrophic claims about the coral reef are based on sloppy or intentionally misleading observations or downright indefensible.’
‘It is absolutely crazy and lethal for the scientific method to impose constraints – de iure or de facto constraints – that make it impossible to report good news.’
Exploration Update:
Decadal Chandler Wobble amplitude and explosive volcanism are coupled.
For most of the record there’s coherence with HMF B and/or solar wind.
Methanol Detected in Protoplanetary Disc around Young Star TW Hydrae
http://www.sci-news.com/astronomy/methanol-protoplanetary-disc-tw-hydrae-03952.html
‘Fossil’ fuel found floating around in exoplanetary systems.
Study: Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air-Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models.
Introducing their study, Sun et al. (2016) write that “state-of-the-art climate models suffer from large errors in simulating the tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO variability,” which problems, they say, “have existed for almost two decades”
“…many problems remain regarding the simulation of ENSO asymmetry in climate models.”
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/jun/a8.php
No surprise there.
Small Asteroid Is Earth’s Constant Companion
A small asteroid has been discovered in an orbit around the sun that keeps it as a constant companion of Earth, and it will remain so for centuries to come.
As it orbits the sun, this new asteroid, designated 2016 HO3, appears to circle around Earth as well. It is too distant to be considered a true satellite of our planet, but it is the best and most stable example to date of a near-Earth companion, or “quasi-satellite.”
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6537
(animated version on Wikipedia)
‘exercising free speech to question government officials who threaten free speech is a threat to free speech.’
http://www.thegwpf.com/prosecuting-climate-dissent-runs-up-against-the-first-amendment/
Climate cranks posing as US legal officials running wild again.
@ Paul Vaughan. Thanks, its useful to know that the multidecadal meridional wind relates to the Specific Carbohydrate Diet. I’ll have to start paying attention to what I eat.
:@ pg Sharrow. Electro Magnetic Fields in motion. All connected. It has to be or else the whole show simply wont hang together and behave in a predictable fashion. We do expect to see the sun rise in the morning, a great comfort and a source of fascination to mankind since the dawn of time.
According to Wikipedia fluctuation in length of day is attributed to interactions between the dynamic atmosphere and Earth itself. That is implausible if one considers the difference in mass between the solid Earth and its atmosphere.
I imagine that something external is required to generate super-rotation of the atmosphere at the poles, the the degree of rotation increasing with latitude and altitude, especially in the winter hemisphere where the atmosphere is .supercharged with the diamagnetic ozone and ionization is enhanced due to cosmic rays..
@erl happ; A SWAG out of my head indicates the total atmospheric mass equals 1inch of dirt or 3/4 inch of rock or 3inches of water. Kind of tiny when measured against the mass of 8,000 miles of planet that is mostly ferrous metal.
When applying force to mass, the acceleration rate would be faster for the lighter mass material. Your point that acceleration from outside factors would first be seen in the atmosphere is valid. The argument that the atmosphere could cause changes in LOD is a bit hard to believe…pg
Glaciers come from the atmosphere.
German cabinet puts brakes on clean energy transition
The German government has agreed on a new reform of electricity markets. It’s likely to slow down the transition to a clean energy future, removing wind from the sails of the German Energiewende. Critics are appalled.
http://www.dw.com/en/german-cabinet-puts-brakes-on-clean-energy-transition/a-19318942
Voter pressure?
Paul Vaughan says:”Glaciers come from the atmosphere.”
😎 So Right!
I once lived in Prince William Sound,Alaska where Glaciers are everywhere and have watched them being created by 3 to 6 feet of snow fall per night! up to 100 feet a year of snow a year tends to build up even though the average temperatures were not much below freezing.
When moist sea air meets cold air snow happens. The permanent snow line is where the average atmospheric temperature / energy level is below freezing. Glaciers grow from snow deposits created in that area.
It strikes me that Atmospheric Density is the key to the elevation of the permanent snow line.
Stephen Wilde points out to us that Atmospheric Density is the determining factor to the Local average temperature / energy level. The solar wind / radiation strips thousands of tons of atmospheric gases from our planet every day. Oceanic stripping washes gases from the atmosphere as well, that then combine with salts to be deposited on the ocean floor. Gases that must be replenished to maintain average surface temperature / energy densities.
Solar radiations on the land, heat it and the air that contacts it, but radiations into the sea leaves it as water vapor. The Solar Science people insist that there is very little change in solar radiation over very extended time. So why does it get colder and we slip back into Ice Age condition?
Average Surface Density of the Atmosphere is the only thing that I can see That changes over the Eons.
AS we are witnessing volcanic activity changes over time. At times very quiet, at times very active. This would be the key to changes that tip the balance of temperature / energy and Glacial snow line. Atmospheric Density Altitude…pg
pg write “The Solar Science people”
[ :
Let me finish that thought for you:
ARE FULL OF SH*T political activists (infiltrating corruptly on a mission perceived to warrant bold, extreme lies)
“Apart from all other reasons, the parameters of the geoid depend on the distribution of water over the planetary surface.” — Sidorenkov (2003)
I have game-changing insights forthcoming (volcanoes, solar wind, chandler wobble, GEOMETRY, ASYMMETRY — (never mind CORRUPT TIME-ONLY BS!)
The mainstream solar & volcano narratives are TOTAL BS — as in ABSOLUTE TOTAL BS. Totally ignorant of geometry. I think it’s deliberate deception.
Paul, we eagerly await your insights. Will it cover earthquakes as well?
There is a huge black swan economic risk sitting in high economic value potential earthquake zones (USA west coast, Japan) – enough to trigger a global economic crisis.
Any predictive foresight would be very valuable for a humanitarian and economic advantage.
Congratulations to Jo Nova on establishing a skeptic hedge fund.
I have always believed there were trading opportunities in the stupid economic distortions caused by green left policies. Add the potential of greater-than-expected cooling and the opportunities are amplified!
Commenteer Jaymez at Jo Nova says it better than me;. . .
“For me, all I see in the divest movement and tax payer subsidies is a great opportunity for contrarians, that is climate skeptics. This house of cards that the climate alarmists have created has to collapse at some stage. We are actually seeing the start of it now. Governments are crab walking away from feed in tariff commitments and renewable build programmes, they are simply too expensive. See also here, here, and here.
We have also seen countries who were at the forefront of the Kyoto Protocol fail to re-sign and in many cases are increasing their use of fossil fuels including Germany, Japan, South Korea.
Other countries will follow when the economic realities of fossil fuels vs renewables starts to bite and when more and more of the population realises they have been had by the climate scares. We also know that there is no way developing countries will be denied access to cheap fossil fuels including coal, oil and gas. China, India, South East Asia, South American and African countries will all contribute to a rising demand for fossil fuels.
All this tells me that there has to be an opportunity for a hedge fund to take advantage of the current artificial market conditions. “
Roy Spencer quotes the Washington Times:
‘If Skeptics can be Prosecuted for Fraud, So can Alarmists’
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/06/if-skeptics-can-be-prosecuted-for-fraud-so-can-alarmists/
Correction to June 15, 2016 at 11:47 pm
“Halstatt, D-O, & de Vries from annual aliasing of volatility structure of JEV, J-S, & U-N”
should read
Halstatt, D-O, & de Vries from annual aliasing of volatility structure of (φ/Φ)/(J+S), J-S, & U-N
Reminder:
(22.13847667)*(19.86503587) / (22.13847667 – 19.86503587) = 193.4431862 sidereal years = 193.4506932 tropical years
This is going to come up when discussion of CW goes deeper over the next 2 years. For now a general notion is introduced to foreshadow:
Nodal slip cycle:
(6.409527865)*(6.204456322) / (6.409527865 – 6.204456322) = 193.92079 tropical years
where (18.61336897) / 3 = 6.204456322 = lunar nodal cycle harmonic nearest polar motion envelope
Where does this come up?
In polar motion angular velocity and its rates of change (difficult to concisely explain — just introducing the confounding side-by-side now to help grease the path towards corrected thinking…)
Anyone working ahead independently:
In order to derive the connection between CW amplitude and FRI (Fire Ring Index) take note of what happens if you shift the Atlantic earthspots (centers of volcanism) by 180 degrees of longitude (to be continued…) You can get the coordinates out of the Smithsonian database.
Take note:
(193.92079) / 2 = 96.96039499
(193.4431862) / 2 = 96.72159311
(193.4506932) / 2 = 96.72534659
Remember that SEV & JEV (9-11) vary at twice this rate:
(11.06964992)*(9.007246722) / (11.06964992 – 9.007246722) = 48.34508981
(11.06964992)*(9.932517933) / (11.06964992 – 9.932517933) = 96.69017963
Reminder:
(29.447498)*(11.862615) / (29.447498 – 11.862615) = 19.86503587
(19.86503587) / 2 = 9.932517933
This is a basis for understanding the difference between the interdecadal (IPO) component of ERSSTv3b2 EOF2 (ENSO) and the centennial component EOF3.
I will soon introduce a line of geometric diagnostics based on polar volcanic-sulfate deposition asymmetry (in ice cores). For now I will say this: Conventional thinking on volcano-climate coupling is COMPLETELY wrong. This cannot be sufficiently underscored.
Glaciers fall from the sky…
“Apart from all other reasons, the parameters of the geoid depend on the distribution of water over the planetary surface.” — Sidorenkov (2003)
pg wrote:
“I once lived in Prince William Sound,Alaska where Glaciers are everywhere and have watched them being created by 3 to 6 feet of snow fall per night! up to 100 feet a year of snow a year tends to build up even though the average temperatures were not much below freezing.”
For several years I worked part-time as a mountain guide and in one gig I had the pleasure of setting snowshoe trails through subalpine meadows in a provincial park in BC’s Coast Mountains. I recall one particular interval of extremely heavy, wet snowfall lasting a few weeks during which the 2 meter bamboo poles (route markers) had to be reset daily (to avoid losing them to burial).
I also recall a 3 week interval of nearly non-stop heavy, wet snowfall another year when I had to dig my car out (from burial) several times in row. I rolled with it, enjoying snowshoeing outings down the mountain for supplies. I even resorted to snowshoeing down the mountain to go sea-kayaking (rather than driving).
You’re right: It doesn’t have to be cold. Only a few degrees below freezing is the context of all that heavy, wet coastal snowfall. Snow-shoeing on meters of snow and sea-kayaking in unfrozen coastal water (just a few hundred meters lower in elevation) are side-by-side norms.
The sky is a firehose icing the continents.
…reshaping stress on the crust, mantle flow, earthspot activity, and the parameters of the geoid.
Polar bear experts ignore official good news so a blogger has to do their job for them.
Priority is only given to alarmist news it seems.
http://polarbearscience.com/2016/06/16/pbsg-failure-to-acknowledge-2015-iucn-polar-bear-update-drives-the-public-here/
Heliospheric plasma sheet inflation as a cause of solar wind anomaly during the solar cycle 23-24 minimum
‘The inflation of HCS/HPS hypothesizes that HCS/HPS is thicker if Sun’s polar magnetic field is weaker and thinner if Sun’s polar magnetic field is stronger.’ [heliosphere current/plasma sheet (HCS/HPS)]
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/proceeding/aipcp/10.1063/1.4943832
The Alarmists’ Attempt to Vilify Carbon Dioxide
‘What we need to fear is not gradual warming but descent into a new ice age, which is historically about due, and would bring huge suffering for humans and most other living things. So we should welcome gradual warming and fear large decreases in global temperatures. But the environmental movement and their political sympathizers instead want to spend even more resources on a hopeless and pointless effort to decrease human-caused CO2 emissions. So they have gotten just about everything wrong scientifically, and are now trying to use government law enforcement authority to prosecute those who do not agree with their ridiculous “science.” ‘
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/2747
Summer solstice to coincide with full moon for first time in [nearly] 70 years
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/summer-solstice-coincide-full-moon-first-time-70-years-watch-live-online-1566017
See blog post: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/06/19/summer-solstice-to-coincide-with-full-moon-for-first-time-in-70-years/
Frederick Colbourne: Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies: 1851-1980
https://geoscienceenvironment.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/temperature-anomalies-1851-1980/
From the author’s comments:
‘Since no warming was observed between 1940 and 1980 and since little or no warming has been observed since about 1995 (apart from El Ninos), the 15-year period from about 1980 to 1995 is our strongest, and perhaps only, evidence for an irreversible change in climate.
But if the warming from 1980 to 1995 was related to the warm phase of the AMO, then we can expect, first a peaking in the cycle lasting until about 2010, and then a gradual downturn in the AMO, which may have already occurred but has been masked by El Nino events.’
Inventor creates incredible 100 mile to the gallon engine using 200-year-old Stirling technology
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3644556/Could-cars-soon-100-miles-gallon-Inventor-builds-efficient-engine-using-200-year-old-technology.html
Mr MacDowell’s concept has received scientific backing by researchers at Texas A&M University.
Dr Mirley Balasubramanya, a mathematical physicist at Texas A&M University, said: ‘This is a wonderful idea, why didn’t someone else think of this?’
***
Well, there was this:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/04/19/free-piston-stirling-engines-nice-technology-for-tinkerers/
There are 4 papers published recently that challenge the Svalgaard/Clette revision of the International Sunspot Record and Group Sunspot Number. This topic will probably not see the light of day at WUWT?
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/340
Some US attorney generals think their role includes enforcing some kind of ‘political correctness’ on climate issues. Don’t agree – get threatened with being hauled into court or at least harassed by demands for information.
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/15/exxon-fights-mass-ags-probe-climate-dissent/
‘The UK has paid out nearly £30m ($44m) in support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects since 2011 while producing no results, a report in The Guardian newspaper found.’
http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2016/06/uk-spent-44m-on-ccs-before-scrapping-scheme-report-finds.html
‘The UK’s handling of CCS is currently under investigation by the National Audit Office.’
PV said (May 22, Suggestions 18):
beats with annual:
(1)*(0.972452186) / (1 – 0.972452186) = 35.30052067 (Sidorenkov “35.3”)
—
Another way of expressing that:
353 tropical years = 363 tidal years (where 1 tidal year = 13 lunar tropical months)
353 / (363 – 353) = 35.3 tropical years
Hidden behind polar motion’s shiny Markowitz Wobble there’s a bidecadal wobble coherent with interannual AO (Arctic Oscillation) = NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) frequency shift.
I started exploring this in maybe 2009 but put it down to focus on other things. I’m looking at it again now in clear connection with ERSSTv3b2 EOF3 centennial interhemispheric volcanism.
It’s clear signal.
Someone with time, resources, and freedom could do the analysis and write a landmark paper in a week. JPL must know about the coherence. An amateur could isolate it in 1 sitting.
I left this on the shelf for 6.4 years. Without time, resources, and freedom to develop tools, the exploratory pace is a minute fraction of potential. Will we be ready in time? Creative freedom obstacles may be civilization’s number 1 survival threat.
Conjecture: QBO propagated deeper into the troposphere and touched the surface during the decades of CW (Chandler Wobble) phase reversal.
That suggestion’s from the same analysis. There may never be opportunity to finish building the prototyped quantitative volatility exploration tools to formal standards.
There’s another level of periodicity structure inside the bidecadal volatility structure too. Deepening hierarchical exploration is readily feasible.
I can at least write these notes. Conventional vision fails by volatility structure blindness.
This all ties in with Jason Box’s Greenland exploration. A lot of controversy (e.g. Mann vs. Wyatt) has arisen from lack of awareness that there are 2 orthogonal modes underlying Greenland variability. Ignorance of the difference between ERSSTv3b2 EOFs 3 & 4 is the norm.
I advise that people consciously cut the brainwashing from their multidecadal-centennial North Atlantic thinking. AMO and winter NAO aren’t the same thing.
What could better symbolize ERSSTv3b2 EOF3 than AC/DC’s “TNT”?
Sung by the sun-struck choir of stratospheric volcanoes on the rim of Earth’s wobbling Ring of Fire:
“TNT I’m dynamite I’ll win the fight I’m a power load watch me explode”
Asymmetric bite. When time permits I’ll start illustrating.
OB, maybe Sidorenkov will propose renaming Markowitz Wobble Markowitz Wander (polar wobble vs. polar wander — they’re not the same thing). Similarly the 18.6 year envelope in LOD only represents stationary lunisolar structure. Without the sun strumming, the lunisolar strings would just be siting there. The orthogonality of EOFs 4 & 3 is (to first order, which is the domineering solar lioness’s share in this case) that of LOD & polar motion. The climate modelers aren’t serious …at all.
Behind the US renewables smokescreen, there’s nuclear power.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/06/19/doe-plans-advanced-reactor-surge/amp/
=
Bill Illis
June 21, 2016 at 10:42 am
I’m starting to think a La Nina is less likely (although temperatures will continue heading downward for at least 3 months).
There was a lot of warm water left over from the El Nino in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the cooler water building in from the developing La Nina was more-or-less neutralized by it.
There isn’t enough cold water in the under-current to provide for a La Nina in 2016 any longer.
=
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/21/global-temperatures-are-heading-downward-and-fast/#comment-2241868
PV: re ‘the 18.6 year envelope in LOD only represents stationary lunisolar structure.’
7 lunar nodal cycles = Phi^4 Metonic cycles
Friends of Science Report “Why Renewable Energy Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050” Will Shock Green Investors and Challenges the Grantham Climate Change Risk Scenario
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2016/06/prweb13475799.htm
Includes link to pdf: Why Renewable Energy Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050 by Robert Lyman, energy economist
New Panama Canal locks due to open in a few days time.
Models Miss Another Factor Impacting Climate
‘…researchers at the Australian National University Research School of Earth Sciences measured trace elements and stable isotopes in stalagmites from the Indonesian island of Flores, comparing ancient rainfall patterns to records from East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. They found alternating multi-century-long El Niño/La Niña-like patterns have affected global climate for at least the past 2,000 years. Climate models do not reproduce those patterns.
Note these are not the familiar El Niño/La Niña patterns that occur off the coasts of North and South America in the Eastern Pacific (which are also not reproduced in climate models) but rather periodic, repeated ocean oscillations in the tropical, South Central and Western portion of the Pacific.’
http://blog.heartland.org/2016/06/models-miss-another-factor-impacting-climate/
Which leaves the obvious question: what are the causes of such oscillations?
This unusual circumbinary exoplanet looks interesting (one planet orbiting two stars).
‘The spectroscopically-measured rotational velocities (Section 3.1) are Vrot,A siniA = 8.4±0.5
km/s and Vrot,B siniB = 5.1 ± 1.0 km/s respectively – assuming 5.5 km/s macroturbulence for the
primary star (Doyle et al. 2014), and 3.98 km/s macroturbulence for Solar-type stars (Gray 1984)
as appropriate for the secondary. Given the uncertainty on both the measurements and the assumed
macroturbulence, the measured rotational velocities are not inconsistent with synchronization.’
http://www.sci-news.com/astronomy/kepler-1647b-circumbinary-planet-03945.html
Ratio of rotational velocities of the binary stars (A and B) is close to 1:Phi (e.g. 8.4:5.2 would do it, = 21/13).
More phoney Arctic ice scares from the usual barmy suspects…
‘Climate Scientists Could Become Veracity-Free This Summer’
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/06/climate-scientists-could-become-veracity-free-this-summer/
Iceland’s Hekla volcano could be about to blow its top.
http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/nature_and_travel/2016/06/20/iceland_s_hekla_volcano_ready_to_blow/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3652254/Is-ash-cloud-disrupt-air-travel-Iceland-s-Gateway-Hell-volcano-explode-moment-says-expert.html
postimg degraded the image, but here it is:
I realize people are going to struggle to see this in context. I suggest at least trying to absorb some of the pieces. Holistic awareness will dawn later if it hasn’t yet.
A few things to note to get started here:
Southern Ocean SST is high when there’s explosive volcanism resulting in Antarctic sulfate deposition.
The aerosol release element of the conventional mainstream narrative appears to make sense FOR THE NORTH, but not exactly: It only works when corrected by the 96 year astronomical cycle to arrive at solar cycle deceleration (SCD). Again (as I’ve been repeating): There are 2 orthogonal modes.
Southern observations are advising mainstream modelers that they have the sign of the spatiotemporal coupling exactly backwards there. This is not a problem for regular climate scientists I very strongly suggest. It demands a broader geophysical holism.
Finally, for now just take note of part of what happens when you put de Vries and the long lunisolar apse-node cycle together:
(208)*(179) / (208 + 179) ~= 96
(179)*(104) / (179 + 104) ~= 66
Let’s see if we can get some lights coming on slowly. I think people will confuse the contrast of SCD and sunspot integral with the contrast of 96 and SCD initially, but these are 2 different components of north-south asymmetry.
The first thing people should focus on is remaining philosophically vigilant:
A BLEND IS NOT A CONTRAST!
The 2 differ FUNDAMENTALLY.
That’s step 1.
Stay aware that before the Panama Canal opened, 96 & SCD were in phase. After: anti-phased. (Remember I’ve indicated that I’m using that event as a placeholder…. to be continued…)
A blend is not a contrast.
Repeat:
A blend is not a contrast…
A blend is not a contrast…
A blend is not a contrast…
Let’s keep in mind while brainstorming this that 208 RESULTS FROM WHAT’S OBSERVED multidecadally & centennially.
I haven’t been careful with tropical versus sidereal years in what follows (subsequent-round refinement on-deck) to grease the gears of contemplation:
.
Which 96 makes more sense?
•The one based on semi-annual-QBO-annual? (96.16339375) — the one a conventional mainstreamer might accept — remember I outlined the logic graphically above for Ed
•The one based on J, S, & φ/Φ? (96.72159311)
•Or the one based on J & S alone? (96.69017963) — this is the one suggested by BDO (bidecadal oscillation) — remember there are several ways (as I’ve outlined) to derive this one exactly
Maybe they can all be reconciled?
.
Any which way we look at it, the root of the CW phase reversal is nailed at aggregate level:
2 patterns of interhemispheric contrast (affecting polar glacial mass balance) flipped from together to opposed.
The straight-line discontinuity at 60°S in corrupted ERSSTv4 (not to be confused with uncorrupted v3b2) is telling.
If anyone’s looking for the volcanic sulfate aerosol deposition data, I can dig out links and related info. There’s an order of magnitude error in some of their estimates and they have the coupling sign (and more generally the whole conceptualization) wrong.
Something extremely serious about the regional effect of the volcanic sulfates on SOUTHERN cloud and precipitation pattern is being overlooked and the people modeling this stuff don’t seem to take subcrustal clues.
Trying to say too much too fast…
I wrote:
“2 patterns of interhemispheric contrast (affecting polar glacial mass balance) flipped from together to opposed.”
What flipped from together to opposed: the blend & the contrast.
Keep in mind that these (North Atlantic & Southern) are the oceans bordering polar ice. Their average state being in-phase with their contrast is different geometrically from their average state being anti-phased with their contrast. Everything flips over geometrically. It’s so simple!!
Paul,
The long luni-solar apse-node cycle is 177 years not 179 years. How do you get the 179 year value? Just interested.
Report: ‘California’s San Andreas Fault is definitely moving. Could an earthquake be next?’
‘Records show that Southern California gets hit by a large earthquake every century or so. The last major seismic activity in the region was a 7.9 magnitude earthquake in 1857, which hit Fort Tejon and could be felt as far away as Las Vegas, 300 miles away.’
http://www.yahoo.com/news/could-san-andreas-fault-strike-000000008.html
I should clarify in case people misinterpret (I’m confident many will):
Poleward coastal winter clouds and precipitation mean warmer because of tropical infusion. Without that it’s clear and cold.
Lots of commentators think so incredibly wrong on clouds. They think of the cloud blocking out sunlight. That’s summer. In winter it’s the opposite and the difference it makes is bigger.
Glaciers fall from the sky at temperatures just below freezing.
When it’s way colder it’s clear.
Temperature-precipitation relations aren’t the straight line many people STUPIDLY imagine. It has to be called out because it’s that stupid and suspiciously it’s also persistent (despite being ridiculously stupid) in climate discussion.
–
Ian, please provide the periods you use for tropical year, lunar synodic month, lunar draconic month, and lunar anomalistic month so I can report on assumption sensitivity from your perspective …and then if necessary also remind any new readers that event series (which can’t be used in slip cycle calculations) differ conceptually from slip cycles. There’s plenty more to illustrate and say about what I’ve started illustrating above, but it may be nearly a week before I’ll have opportunity.
The wet tropical cloud and rain at high latitudes LETS IN sunlight. It’s bottled sunlight. Bottled tropically for poleward export. Get the sign of your winter cloud math right folks. Please!
(365.242189)*(29.530589) / (365.242189 + 29.530589) = 27.32158236 days = lunar tropical month
(27.32158236)*(27.212221) / (27.32158236 – 27.212221) = 6798.387626 days
(6798.387626) / 365.242189 = 18.61336897 tropical years = lunar nodal cycle = LNC
(27.55455)*(27.32158236) / (27.55455 – 27.32158236) = 3231.495658
(3231.495658) / 365.242189 = 8.847542139 tropical years = lunar apse cycle = LAC
Slip:
harmonic of LNC nearest LAC:
(18.61336897) / 2 = 9.306684483
(9.306684483)*(8.847542139) / (9.306684483 – 8.847542139) = 179.3371583 tropical years = 179.330199 sidereal years
Ian, please indicate if you are using different values for the lunar month lengths and also whether you are differentiating conceptually between event series and slip cycles. Thank you.
Brainstorming note:
I’m not suggesting LAC & LNC have a role. I’m putting them up as exploratory placeholders.
What we do see in observations is that solar cycle deceleration (something like 66 years but not fixed and not sinusoidal but we can explore ballpark aggregates to brainstorm) and the sunspot integral (with de Vries period) aggregate to something like 96 and we observe 96.
This polar volcanic deposition asymmetry is independent of neither Chandler Wobble amplitude nor solar activity so we have a very interesting puzzle here.
I’m getting the impression that people underestimate how much more there is to illustrate and say about ERSSTv3b2 EOFs 1,2,3,&4 in relation to Earth Orientation Parameters (including polar motion and length of day).
What I’m pointing out about the coherence of polar volcanic sulfate deposition asymmetry, core angular momentum, ENSO volatility, and sea surface temperature asymmetries is actually something quite profound and beautiful, as is what I’ve shown about ice export and SSTs in a subset of the North Atlantic off Greenland. I suggest reviewing the EOF maps on the last page of ERSST EOF1234 as a refresher. It’s going to be a lot of tedious work if folks actually need further clarification. And I don’t think all that effort will cure ignorance. What to do about this perception problem I do not know. Can I at least ask sensible people to make the effort? Please try to stay engaged folks. This is important.
You can also get 96 from 16 lunar wobble periods (~5.997 TY each) or 81 Chandler wobbles.
16 = 2^4
81 = 3^4
The lunar wobble is the axial period of LNC and LAC (see PV’s comment above).
This was explained by de Rop.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/01/05/de-rops-long-term-lunar-cycle/
See fig.3 in the linked paper (p.262)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1971.tb00568.x/pdf
de Rop says:
‘…only once in about 1 800 years the line of nodes
and the line of apsides (the Moon in its perigee)
coincides with the major axis of the Earth’s
orbit and the position of the Earth in the
perihelion. In case of this double coincidence,
the tidal forces exerted by Sun and Moon will
reach an absolute maximum.’
‘Other less intensive maxima are superposed
on the period of 1800 years. They are caused
by a coincidence of the line of nodes and the
line perihelion-Sun as well as a coincidence of
the line of apsides and the line perihelion-Sun.’
What’s Causing Mysterious ‘Worldwide Hum?’
by Glen MacPherson, Lecturer, University of British Columbia
http://www.livescience.com/55123-cracking-mystery-worldwide-hum.html
Polar volcanic sulfate deposition asymmetry, core angular momentum (CAM), ENSO volatility, Southern Ocean – North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) asymmetries, ERSSTv3b2 EOF2&3, and solar cycle deceleration (SCD):
The North Atlantic has _2_ modes of variability (multidecadal & centennial). (It’s not just AMO.)
Reminder from earlier in this line of exploration:
ERSSTv3b2 EOFs1-4 Context:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/paul-vaughan-noaa-corruption-of-sst-records/
NASA’s Juno set to meet up with Jupiter on July 4th
‘If all goes as planned, Juno will spend nearly a year circling Jupiter’s poles and peering through clouds to scrutinize the planet’s southern and northern lights, which are considered the strongest in the solar system.’
http://www.mercurynews.com/space/ci_30055371/nasas-juno-set-meet-up-jupiter-july-4th
So Paul, if I read your cycles correctly, we are due for a dose of N.Hemisphere volcanism.
Probably one of those Iceland mega-volcanos.
This can cause Euro flight disruption, alarm and accelerated cooling.
When added to the current volatile N.Hemisphere politico-cultural environment (Brexit, Trump, NATO-Soviet posturing, Syria, Euro-economic-refugee crisis, China hard landing) this could lead to one of those tipping points you have postulated.
Let us hope not.
Poly, from a quick inspection of the polar volcanic sulfate deposition record a newcomer might conclude (without more detailed analysis) that northern activity is relatively more constant and 3 times more common than southern.
I’ve done some preliminaries. There’s scope for much, much deeper analysis.
.
For anyone who wants to cut right to what matters, this should help:
Water mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning
http://phys.org/news/2016-06-wind-blown-antarctic-sea-ice-ocean.html
Wind-blown Antarctic sea ice helps drive ocean circulation (June 27, 2016)
“Antarctic sea ice is constantly on the move as powerful winds blow it away from the coast and out toward the open ocean. A new study shows how that ice migration may be more important for the global ocean circulation than anyone realized.”
“The scientists found that freshwater played the most powerful role in changing water density, which drives circulation, and that melting of wind-blown sea ice contributed 10 times more freshwater than melting of land-based glaciers did.”
“A vital contributor to the process, the scientists discovered, was the seasonal migration of the ice, which is largely driven by winds. If the sea ice were instead forming and melting in the same place, there would be no net effect.”
And people don’t get the Fram Strait Ice Export & Western Nordic Seas Winter Sea Ice Extent relation to SCL (solar cycle length). No respect for meridional wind (for some political reasons).
So from the equator we have a poleward precipitable water volatility cycle (not to be confused with a cycle in the mean — seasonal poleward hydrology aliasing is nonlinear due to latent heat, so it’s the poleward (seasonal) sampling of the tropical volatility that’s aliased into the long-run centennial aggregate)…
…and from the poles we have windblown freshwater (SEA ICE) export.
Poly, everything’s tied together. May domineering nature inspire stability in the minds of those with access to red buttons. With sufficiently lucid awareness (the human dimension of) the tipping point can be smoothed — as in smoothed into a naturally smooth transition. For example in the current context I hope and pray the EU will stop remaining in denial that it’s pursuing extremely laudable goals with dangerously corrupt means. I think if EU can be persuaded (if NATO decides to be practical) to drop climate deception from its agenda, trust could conceivably be restored and this could help save a lot of important global stability gains. End poverty, ensure clean air & water, and preserve parks for outdoor recreation without thinking it’s necessary to lie about climate to do that kind of thing.
Is everyone starting to appreciate and understand meridional wind? (Let’s pray and hope so.)
This may be a good opportunity for a timely reminder.
Remember that although both stress a meridional gradient, the spatial pattern of the centennial wave of ERSSTv3b2 EOF2&3 is a little different from that of multidecadal EOF4:
Note that EOF4 takes a bite (south of Greenland) out of the North Atlantic correlation pattern illustrated above for “96 index” (which is derived from NASA JPL Horizons).
Also note that the Southern EOF4 correlation band is at a lower latitude (i.e. more towards the equator from Antarctica).
So top-down and bottom-up have another meaning.
It’s overwhelming to think how much more there is to illustrate.
Pareto Principle to the 2nd or 3rd power by overwhelming necessity.
‘Record breaking N. American winters not due to climate change’
‘A new study finds that human-caused warming in the west tropical Pacific was not responsible for a series of frigid North American winters experienced over the early 2000s.’
http://judithcurry.com/2016/06/27/record-breaking-n-american-winters-not-due-to-climate-change/
These days you need a study before saying warming hasn’t caused cold winters.
Report: A Southwest Research Institute-led team has discovered an elusive, dark moon orbiting Makemake, one of the “big four” dwarf planets populating the Kuiper Belt region at the edge of our solar system.
‘With the discovery of MK2, all four of the currently designated dwarf planets are known to host one or more satellites. The fact that Makemake’s satellite went unseen despite previous searches suggests that other large KBOs may host hidden moons.’
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-06-team-moon-makemake-kuiper-belt.html
Makemake was initially known as 2005 FY9. It was discovered a few days after Easter in March 2005.
Rep. Lamar Smith tries and fails to get any sense out of the EPA on climate policy…
EPA Will Not Say What the Paris Treaty Would Actually Accomplish
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/2753
Joe Romm: tower of psychobabble.
ThinkProgress: Global Warming Caused Brexit
http://dailycaller.com/2016/06/28/thinkprogress-global-warming-caused-brexit/
oldbrew, What causes the hum?
If this was sound it would be readily measurable and recordable. Seems unlikely this has not been done so I assume it is not a sound. (not acoustic)
The linked article says not tinnitus but mis-describes this and that is the most likely explanation.
TB and Oldbrew
Someone may have already done this but when I get more time (maybe tomorrow) I will post a series of graphics on the El Nino Index and Hadcrut4. Below is a three parameter correlation between them.
[reply] thanks RJ
TC: ‘oldbrew, What causes the hum?’
Nobody knows, but there’s some info here.
http://www.thehum.info/
Apparently ‘there are eight times as many ambidextrous people among hearers as there are in the general population.’ I’m semi-ambidextrous but haven’t had this problem.
Timestamp[1]: 2/18/2015 16:15:19
When is the sound the loudest?: At night
Please describe the sound: Sounds like a lawnmower, getting louder and quieter. Or a low flying plane or helicopter
Does the sound ever stop? Please tell us about this.: Stops occasionally for about 10-30 seconds, then resumes
Does the sound ever “pulse” or “throb”?:
Where is it the loudest?: Equal throughout the house
Have you tried tracking down the source of the noise?: Little effort
When did you start hearing it?: 2014
Can you provide a precise date when you first noticed it? (If “No”, then leave blank): 19th Feb 2015
In which ear is it the strongest?: equally in both ears
Please list any unusual geographic, geological, or other features in your area: None
Which is your dominant hand?: Right
Your gender: Male
Please enter your age (just a single number, no words please): 15
Medical complaints from The Hum (check all that apply):
Do you have any medical issues with your hearing?: None
I AM HENRY THE EIGHTH I AM. by The Elephant’s Child
[photo with joke caption re Brexit]
http://americanelephant.wordpress.com/2016/06/29/i-am-henry-the-eighth-i-am/
DNA molecules: A DNA molecule measures 34 angstroms by 21 angstroms at each full cycle of the double helix spiral. In the Fibonacci series, 34 and 21 are successive numbers.[= ratio of major to minor]
http://www.livescience.com/37704-phi-golden-ratio.html
By placing two pentagons together and then rotating one of them, you have the shape of the cross section of a DNA double helix.
http://math.andyou.com/349
Links between pentagons/pentagrams and the golden ratio are well-documented e.g.:
http://www.contracosta.edu/legacycontent/math/pentagrm.htm
http://www.ics.uci.edu/~eppstein/junkyard/pent.html
TB and Oldbrew:
The following demonstrates that Metoffice Hadcrut4 is a restatement of the NOAA El Nino index. It’s based on the conjecture that not only do El Nino events have an immediate effect on world temperature but also the clustering of El Nino or La Nina events have a cumulative effect on the worlds temperature. Ian Wilson and Paul Vaughan have provide the frame work to show that El Nino events are governed by the interaction of the Sun and Moon coupled with the hemispherical asymmetry of the Earth’s surface properties. The climate variation is driven by the ratio in strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events.
El Nino data is available here;
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtm
l
The Hadcrut4 data is available here :
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.4.0.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt
The Hadcrut4 data is processed by averaging the eleven temperature series for each month and then taking a rolling 12 month average of the monthly result to give a global smoothed temperature change. The result is shown below;
The data is fitted to a sixth power polynomial and the numerical value of the polynomial subtracted from Hadcrut4 to get a linear result.
This linear result is shown in the following two graphics compared to the El Nino index.
The modern data from 1950 to 2016 show excellent coherence. The Historical data from 1880 to 1949 coherence is good but as the data has less certainty there are discrepancies.
Based on the conjecture that the climate is driven by the cumulative effects of El Nino and La Nina events the following graphic compares the summation of the El Nino index to Hadcrut4 rotated so that it is reflective around the zero axis of El Nino. The coherence is again good.
The next step is to generate the Hadcrut4 from the El Nino data by correlating the cumulative El Nino index and The El Nino Index by month to Hadcrut4. The equation to do this is:
HD4=K1*(Sum of (El Nino index +K3) + K2*El Nino index.
Where
K1= 0.00430122394
K2= 0.0488407259
K3= 0.0528349012
The zero of the Index is adjusted upwards by K3. This gives the slight warming trend. (The index itself may have been constructed to give a zero sum game.) The graphic is below and is an excellent fit considering the quality of historical data and the simplicity of the equation.
Predicting El Nino predicts the climate.
[mod] see: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/rj-salvador-predicting-el-nino-predicts-the-climate/
Over the years I’ve seen recurring variants of the analysis RJ has just presented. I’ve explored this for dozens of ENSO indices, including ones derived from ICOADS wind data.
RJ wrote:
“Predicting El Nino predicts the climate.”
We should take care not to define “climate” as global average temperature.
An important question:
Can the equation reproduce the spatial patterns of ERSSTv3b2 EOFs1,2,3,&4?
A spatial blend differs fundamentally from a spatial contrast. If “climate” is to be culturally defined as a global blend (even worse: of just one variable), we’re in a dream world with no spatial dimension and we’re not admitting E(X+Y) and E(X-Y) are different animals.
It’s good to see exploration. As with the exploration of David Evans & Jo Nova: Looking forward to seeing some kind of expansion of analyses to include spatial contrasts. Then r^2 will jump from 0.75 to nearly 1.
Regards
Reminder:
The phase relationship between EOF23 & EOF4 reverses sign around the time of the opening of the Panama Canal (an event I conveniently use as a placeholder to help people remember).
Note on RJ’s last graph that this corresponds with where the match breaks down going backwards. This isn’t about data quality. It’s about spatial pattern.
Overturning circulation is the vortex blender of a contrast coherent with the slip cycle of BDO (bidecadal oscillation) and the solar cycle.
This is hard to explain. Maybe a map underscoring pole-pole asymmetry will help when time permits.
PV:
I don’t disagree with you.
What I did any high school student with a working knowledge of Excel could do.
The proponents of AGW advertise a simple cause attached to a global temperature change for what is a complex reality.
This is a simple and far more plausible explanation for that same advertised global temperature change. The analyses you propose, while it should be done, is for many a leap too far in comprehension.
RJ
MIT: First signs of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer
September ozone hole has shrunk by 4 million square kilometers since 2000
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/06/160630145004.htm
Note: ‘since 2000’ – in conjunction with ‘the pause’ – what a coincidence…
Study: Ocean circulation implicated in past abrupt climate changes
‘There was a period during the last ice age when temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere went on a rollercoaster ride, plummeting and then rising again every 1,500 years or so. Those abrupt climate changes wreaked havoc on ecosystems, but their cause has been something of a mystery. New evidence published this week in the leading journal Science shows for the first time that the ocean’s overturning circulation slowed during every one of those temperature plunges – at times almost stopping.’
http://phys.org/news/2016-06-ocean-circulation-implicated-abrupt-climate.html
5TH CARBON BUDGET BASED ON ASSUMPTION THAT UK REMAINS IN THE EU
http://www.thegwpf.com/5th-carbon-budget-based-on-assumption-that-uk-remains-in-the-eu/
Climate cranks at DECC in a hurry to try and tie the hands of the next UK government.
‘The influential trade union presence on the board of EDF are stepping up their opposition to the Hinkley Point C nuclear power project in the UK, following Brexit.’
http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2016/07/opposition-hardens-to-hinkley-post-brexit.html
Thumbs down for man-made climate change claims, from US farmers.
‘A survey conducted by Iowa State Professor J. Arbuckle and Purdue University professor Linda Prokopy of 5,000 Cornbelt farmers—representing about 60% of U.S. corn production and 80% of farmland in the region—found that only 8% believed climate change is taking place and caused primarily by human activity.’
http://fortune.com/2016/06/29/monsanto-farmers-climate-change/
‘For now the cause of powerful oceanic lightning will, apparently, remain a mystery. This latest research might imply increased salinity and large ice crystals in combination with storm physics could be the cause.’
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/06/28/lightning/
But ‘while the size of ice crystals might vary as much as 10 percent across the land/sea boundary, the differences in the electric discharge in lightning strokes can vary by 25 to 30 percent.’
2nd time I’ve seen Bill outlining GEOGRAPHIC rationale for 1500 year D-O:
=
Bill Illis
July 3, 2016 at 3:48 am
I agree that the Gulf Stream was always flowing due to the Corriolis and the winds and the confining continental margins.
But there is another issue to consider, sea level.
There would have been times that sea level was too low to allow the Gulf Stream flow path next to Florida. The ocean was not deep enough at times to allow a full Gulf Stream flow. There would also have been choke-points on the western side of Cuba which stopped it.
A good ocean current like the Gulf Stream needs to have at least 200 metres of ocean depth to flow properly and times when sea level was lower, there was simply not enough ocean depth in these two spots.
There would have been times in the ice ages, when the Gulf Stream changed course and flowed around the outside of the Caribbean Islands. I don’t know why no one has talked about this before but it clearly had to have happened.
This disruption and course change probably took decades to establish itself.
This is a far more logical explanation for Greenland temperature instability in the ice ages. (Although I will note that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions do NOT show the big changes that the Greenland ice core borehole models show.)
=
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/07/02/are-scientists-preparing-for-a-flipflop-back-to-global-cooling-predictions/#comment-2250746
BBC report:
Space agencies are now flying six satellite altimeters, returning large volumes of data on the height and shape of the sea surface – and in rapid time.
The information is fed into all manner of applications, from forecasting the weather to understanding the migratory habits of marine creatures.
The main image at the top of this page [see link below] gives a snapshot of the six missions in action as they monitor the North Atlantic.
Each is seen to fly over the Gulf Stream – the current of warm water that rides up the East Coast of the US and then crosses to Europe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36654241
Why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years: Climate and feedback effects explained
Date: August 7, 2013 [yes it’s 3 years old]
Source: ETH Zurich
Summary:
Science has struggled to explain fully why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years. As researchers now demonstrate based on a computer simulation, not only do variations in insolation play a key role, but also the mutual influence of glaciated continents and climate.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130807134127.htm
Was this covered in any blogs at the time?
Paper: ‘We find that volcanically very active planets might show the largest lightning flash densities.’
ABSTRACT
Clouds form on extrasolar planets and brown dwarfs where lightning could occur.
Lightning is a tracer of atmospheric convection, cloud formation and ionization processes
as known from the Solar System, and may be significant for the formation of
prebiotic molecules. We study lightning climatology for the different atmospheric environments
of Earth, Venus, Jupiter and Saturn. We present lightning distribution
maps for Earth, Jupiter and Saturn, and flash densities for these planets and Venus,
based on optical and/or radio measurements from the WWLLN and STARNET radio
networks, the LIS/OTD satellite instruments, the Galileo, Cassini, New Horizons and
Venus Express spacecraft. We also present flash densities calculated for several phases
of two volcano eruptions, Eyjafjallaj¨okull’s (2010) and Mt Redoubt’s (2009). We estimate
lightning rates for sample, transiting and directly imaged extrasolar planets
and brown dwarfs. Based on the large variety of exoplanets, six categories are suggested
for which we use the lightning occurrence information from the Solar System.
We examine lightning energy distributions for Earth, Jupiter and Saturn. We discuss
how strong stellar activity may support lightning activity. We provide a lower limit
of the total number of flashes that might occur on transiting planets during their full
transit as input for future studies. We find that volcanically very active planets might
show the largest lightning flash densities. When applying flash densities of the large
Saturnian storm from 2010/11, we find that the exoplanet HD 189733b would produce
high lightning occurrence even during its short transit.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.09172v2.pdf
PV says: ‘2nd time I’ve seen Bill outlining GEOGRAPHIC rationale for 1500 year D-O’
Could the J-S-N planetary alignment with Earth every 1470 years affect sea levels in some way?
From oldbrew, quoting others:
“Summary:
Science has struggled to explain fully why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years. As researchers now demonstrate based on a computer simulation, not only do variations in insolation play a key role, but also the mutual influence of glaciated continents and climate.”
“Insolation plays a key role”. But the more effective way to vary the insolation is by changing the earth’s obliquity.
Which also means that extrapolating backwards beyond certain dates while ignoring what Dodwell pointed out to, is burying our heads in modern faulty dogma.
It can be shown time and again that the ancient measurements from ancient techniques were very accurate, and therefore what those measurements infer is very real. Both indicate a changing obliquity.
Peak oilers look away now…
Study: US Has More Oil Reserves Than Saudis And Russians
http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/05/study-us-has-more-oil-reserves-than-saudis-and-russians/
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that in 2000 America got roughly 2 percent of its oil, about 102,000 barrels per day, from fracking. America got 51 percent of its oil, about 4.3 million barrels per day, from fracking in 2015.
The study does not include oil shale, which excludes the fact that America controls the world’s largest untapped oil reserve, the Green River Formation in Colorado. This formation alone contains up to 3 trillion barrels of untapped oil shale, half of which may be recoverable. That’s five and a half times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. This single geologic formation could contain more oil than the rest of the world’s proven reserves combined.
‘Peak oil’ is no longer a problem; pollution is. The air in some cities leave you ‘gasping’.
Something don’t smell right. Now the US finds enormous reserves, when the price today is so low its not worth looking for it. Venezuela was in the news today, mainly due to that — its an ugly story.
This ‘Green Scandal’ made the news here, More wasted money which could be better spent, one farmer was set to receive £1m for installing a boiler in an empty shed…
http://www.itv.com/news/utv/2016-07-05/lack-of-controls-in-heat-scheme-to-cost-ni-public-millions/
UK set to miss 2020 renewables target says National Grid
http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2016/07/uk-will-miss-2020-renewables-target-says-national-grid.html
It was a crackpot target anyway.
‘The National Grid report states that heating is the stumbling block for the UK’s renewable ambitions.’
Well, that won’t be a problem when ‘winters are a thing of the past’. Don’t hold your breath for that though
Sparks: what a farce. All they had to do was mirror the mainland UK scheme.
Paul Vaughan says:
June 30, 2016 at 7:23 pm
“Reminder:
The phase relationship between EOF23 & EOF4 reverses sign around the time of the opening of the Panama Canal (an event I conveniently use as a placeholder to help people remember).”
A candidate cause is the change in routing of the ships providing marine measurements, via panama instead of around the cape. Different sea areas.
OB asked about Bill Illis commentary on 1500 year D-O:
“Could the J-S-N planetary alignment with Earth every 1470 years affect sea levels in some way?”
I’m finding increasing reason to suspect what I outlined above (June 15, 2016 at 11:47 pm).
Testing the historic tracking of climate models
Michael Beenstock, Yaniv Reingewertz, Nathan Paldor
International Journal of Forecasting
Volume 32, Issue 4, October–December 2016, Pages 1234–1246
Abstract
IPCC and others use in-sample correlations to confirm the ability of climate models to track the global surface temperature (GST) historically. However, a high correlation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for confirmation, because GST is nonstationary. In addition, the tracking errors must also be stationary. Cointegration tests using monthly hindcast data for GST generated by 22 climate change models over the period 1880–2010 are carried out for testing the hypothesis that these hindcasts track GST in the longer run. We show that, although GST and their hindcasts are highly correlated, they unanimously fail to be cointegrated. This means that all 22 models fail to track GST historically in the longer run, because their tracking errors are nonstationary. This juxtaposition of a high correlation and cointegration failure may be explained in terms of the phenomenon of spurious correlation, which occurs when data such as GST embody time trends.
National Grid says UK renewables to fall short
http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/national-grid-says-uk-renewables-to-fall-short-nid4109.html
Can’t be fined by the EU if we’re not members of it any more.
To help us keep track of observation-based commentary on the beat of AMOC belts:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/rj-salvador-predicting-el-nino-predicts-the-climate/
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/07/05/when-sea-ice-expands-its-due-to-nature-when-it-melts-its-due-to-humans/
PV wrote: ‘(171.4062162)*(164.79132) / (171.4062162 – 164.79132) = 4270.098235’
This is the U-N equivalent period to the 61.047~year J-S period (360 degrees retrograde movement of the conjunction).
‘RWE, Germany’s biggest energy company, is in danger of going belly up. It would be the largest bankruptcy in German economic history.’
http://www.thegwpf.com/green-madness-germanys-biggest-energy-company-faces-bankruptcy/
Looks like a combination of German policies has doomed it: dumping nuclear and the mad charge for renewable energy at almost any cost.
—
RWE is “a case for an insolvency administrator”
http://carbon-pulse.com/21966/
Lubos Motl dishes the dirt on Brexit…
‘Now, lots of important countries have already begun their negotiations with the soon-to-be-freed U.K. It’s very clear why they want such deals. Now, why isn’t the European Union doing the same thing as the U.S. or Australia on our behalf? Well, it’s simply because the EU is full of politically incompetent, malicious, ideologically motivated or brainwashed, unelected, unaccountable, and in Juncker’s case almost permanently drunk aßholes who don’t give a damn about the good condition of the European economies and the well-being of the citizens of EU member states.’
‘Why don’t you just accept the new reality, pro-EU losers, and the reality involves the looming independence of the U.K. from your arrogant power and from your idiotic regulations and propaganda?’
http://motls.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/most-europeans-dont-want-eu-to-behave.html
Good stuff 🙂
The genius of the brexit battle bus eluded me at first. By painting an innacurate slogan on the bus about money, the brexiteers diverted half the resources of the remain campaign into protesting this innacuracy. The other half of the remain campaign resources were busy peddling economic disaster. But the swing voters in the referendum were not influenced by either issue. Which meant that the remain campaign had tied up all its resources in fighting a mirage, well two of them. Thus leaving the field entirely clear for the leave campaign to address the concerns of the swing voters who would determine the outcome of the referendum. Genius.
Charging for charging: UK EV drivers to lose free power privileges
‘UK electric vehicle drivers are set to lose their free access to charging points provided by Ecotricity. The green energy supplier, which says its Electric Highway car charging network is the most comprehensive in both the UK and Europe, has announced that 20-minute rapid charging will now cost £5’
http://www.gizmag.com/ecotricity-electric-vehicle-charger-payment/44252/
How many miles is that for £5? Not many.
Baillie and McAneney on the Bronze Age Cosmic Collapse
Why we shouldn’t ignore the mid-24th century BC when discussing the 2200-2000 BC climate anomaly
http://cosmictusk.com/whatapaper-baillie-and-mcaneney-on-bronze-age-climate-collapse/
Abstract
Much evidence exists for the major climate anomaly c2200-2000 BC. In this paper, we demonstrate that precisely dated Irish bog oaks record this climatic event, which appears to begin abruptly in 2206 BC and last until around 1900 BC. However, it might be unwise to ignore the precisely dated, abrupt environmental downturn that occurs some 150 years earlier. Irish and English oak tree rings draw attention to a notable decade-long growth downturn spanning 2354 BC to 2345 BC with hints of inundation. Interest in this apparently localized inundation led to the discovery that traditions from around the world specify dated stories within 10 years of 2350 BC. These stories involve the Chinese emperor Yao (traditional date 2357 BC), who presided over a series of catastrophes, including floods, in 2346 BC; Archbishop Ussher who used the dates 2349-2348 BC for the biblical Flood; and the ‘birth’ of three Mayan deities, GI, GII and GIII in the year 2360 BC. Why, one might ask, should people around the northern hemisphere have generated stories that appear to hark back to a two decade window between 2360 BC and 2340 BC? Furthermore, a smoothed growth response for North European trees suggests the existence of a 37 year cycle of reduced growth, hinting that the events around 2350 BC and 2200-2000 BC may be related. One possible scenario to account for these various observations is that something happened in the sky around this time with memorable consequences for those on the ground; a scenario highly compatible with controversial evidence for an anomalous dust deposition event observed at Tell Leilan in Syria. Overall, this unusual accumulation of evidence, including similarities in stories from widely separated areas, suggests that the scenario be treated seriously as a basis for further research.
—
See also: Dodwell’s study
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/12/24/dodwells-surprising-study-of-the-obliquity-of-the-ecliptic/
and
Moe M. Mandelkehr
An Integrated Model for an Earthwide Event at 2300 BC
PART III: THE GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCE
http://www.sis-group.org.uk/files/docs/1988-integrated-model.pdf
From Mandelkehr:
Goldman Sachs hires former EU chief Barroso
‘Goldman Sachs International, which Barroso will chair, is headquartered in London and of its roughly 6,000 staff fewer than 1,000 are based outside Britain.’
http://www.todayonline.com/business/goldman-sachs-hires-former-eu-chief-barroso
Streets of London paved with Gold…man Sachs executives 😉
@oldbrew: you touch my subject again in the post “Baillie and McAneney on the Bronze Age Cosmic Collapse”. The date of the paper is quite recent. It centres about the 2345bce event.
A cursory look at it did not turn up any mention of Dodwell. Yet his hypothesis finds good support in evidence in an ancient calendar originating from just after 3195, mathematically designed and now proven extremely accurate, which evidence is hard to refute.
But there is something else. the 2345bce event was the last in a series of cataclysmic events, equally evident in the tree rings, which, important, point to a non cosmic trigger, but one that is intrinsic to planet earth. Weather patterns after 2345bce may have been eventful but before they were much worse.
Weathering of rocks by mosses may explain climate effects during the Late Ordovician
‘During the Ordovician period, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere was about eight times higher than today. It has been hard to explain why the climate cooled and why the Ordovician glaciations took place. A new study shows that the weathering of rock caused by early non-vascular plants had the potential to cause such a global cooling effect.’
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160707101029.htm
Sounds a bit iffy? Some say the climate cooled due to large-scale volcanic activity, which could also explain high CO2 levels. But if CO2 is supposed to cause warming, something doesn’t add up.
Beautiful fractals help solve wiggly problems
http://phys.org/news/2016-07-beautiful-fractals-wiggly-problems.html
German Energy Policy Sticks It to the Poor and Small Businesses
Alan Carlin | July 8, 2016
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/2771
Biggest explosion in documented history is STILL a mystery: New study fails to find cause of 1908 Tunguska blast that ‘split the sky in two’ and flattened 80 million Siberian trees
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3681264/Biggest-explosion-documented-history-mystery-New-study-fails-cause-1908-Tunguska-blast-flatten-80-million-Siberian-trees.html
—
BBC: In Siberia in 1908 a huge explosion came out of nowhere
On 30 June 1908, an explosion ripped through the air above a remote forest in Siberia, near the Podkamennaya Tunguska river.
The fireball is believed to have been 50-100m wide. It depleted 2,000 sq km of the taiga forest in the area, flattening about 80 million trees.
The earth trembled. Windows smashed in the nearest town over 35 miles (60km) away. Residents there even felt heat from the blast, and some were blown off their feet.
http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20160706-in-siberia-in-1908-a-huge-explosion-came-out-of-nowhere
THE ‘BIG BOUNCE’
Researchers say the start of the universe may have sprung as it transitioned from a previously contracting state.
They suggest that all particles in the early universe would have been governed by the laws of quantum mechanics.
So rather than collapsing and destroying itself at the end of a period of contraction, the universe was likely saved by quantum mechanics.
This would mean the universe did not experience a violent beginning or ending, as in the Big Bang and Big Crunch scenarios.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3681492/Was-Big-Bang-actually-Big-Bounce-New-theory-claims-universe-sprang-life.html
—
One of several problems with standard Big Bang theory is that, for it to be possible, the speed of light would have to be exceeded at the beginning of the ‘Bang’.
Research: California droughts caused mainly by changes in wind, not moisture
“Ocean evaporation has little direct influence on California precipitation because of its relatively weak variability,” Wei said.
Instead, the researchers found that disturbances in atmospheric circulation, the large-scale movement of air, have the most effect on drought because they can affect factors that will cause it to rain more or less.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-07-california-droughts-moisture.html
—
‘Global warming’ gets its foot in the door at the end of the story:
‘Most of California has been in a severe drought since 2011, although a strong El Niño in the winter of 2015 helped diminish the drought. The current drought is caused by a high-pressure system that disturbs the atmospheric circulation. The development of the high-pressure system is related to a sea surface temperature pattern in the Pacific Ocean, according to research cited by the study.
“Although this is a very rare event, the probability of this kind of high-pressure system is likely increasing with global warming,” the authors said.
—
Yes, a ‘likely’ story.
Anyone care to speculate on the likelihood of several years solar minimum this time around ?
With the sunspot count dropping quite a lot recently it raises the possibility of an unusual short low cycle. As the last minimum lasted for two years when all (?) previous minimums have been just one year, I was wondering if we might soon see the start of a multi year minimum, before the next solar cycle starts in 2022 ?
Though it does seem much too early for such an event to occur. A 3 year minimum perhaps ?
J Martin: the sunspot record is relatively short (< 400 years) so we may see something not previously recorded. Why not?
ERSSTv3b2 EOFs 1-4:
Believe it or not that was done in Excel 2003.
Clash of energy civilisations and the public good
By Diarmaid Williams – International Digital Editor
http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2016/07/clash-of-energy-civilisations-and-the-public-good.html
See para.: Beliefs of the Rival Factions
Proof that NASA is in the climate brainwashing business.
‘Greenhouse gases are gases that can trap heat. They get their name from greenhouses. A greenhouse is full of windows that let in sunlight. That sunlight creates warmth. The big trick of a greenhouse is that it doesn’t let that warmth escape.
That’s exactly how greenhouse gases act. They let sunlight pass through the atmosphere, but they prevent the heat that the sunlight brings from leaving the atmosphere.’
http://climatekids.nasa.gov/greenhouse-cards/
Appalling tripe.
Juno probe returns first in-orbit Jupiter photo
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36780756
On the most recent RJ Salvador thread I posted this to underscore widely ignored ENSO asymmetry:
.
Taking the derivative gives a further reminder:
.
Interpretive caution: The BDO (bidecadal oscillation) swung really hard in the South Pacific early in the record. (As I’ve mentioned before: This is something I’ve animated but not shared publicly. (I currently have no time and money to finish developing the prototyped software.))
I left related remarks (on flow geometry & topology) on the recent Antarctic thread (linked upthread).
I’ll share further commentary to help people get their heads around these geometric and topological insights as/when time & resources permit. There’s actually a lot to discuss. People will probably find it difficult. It will be trying for all of us.
Over here…
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/rj-salvador-predicting-el-nino-predicts-the-climate/
…I noted:
“FYI this is the 1st time I’ve seen BDO visible to the naked eye in an ENSO index.”
CONFIRMATION:
The timing of BDO polarity reversal is exactly as I illustrated here:
I’ve been hunting for this smoking gun since 2008.
Splitting MEIx into La Nina versus El Nino brings simple, clear focus.
A lot of damage has been done.
Climate commentators are conditioned to think insight can never sharpen.
Western security has been compromised by a movement based on false information.
May the cleanup begin…
(illustrations forthcoming….)
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Bill Illis
July 15, 2016 at 7:20 pm
Earth’s Albedo has varied between 24% and 50% in the last 3.0 billion years. Today it is 29.8% as in 29.8% of the sunlight received by the Earth is reflected directly back to space within 0.1 seconds and does [not] contribute to Earth’s energy balance. It only takes less than 0.1 seconds for reflected sunlight to leave the Earth system at the speed of light.
Albedo has been as low as 24% in the Hothouse periods when most of the continents were concentrated at the equator – think Pangea 265 Mya super-continent centered at the equator or Cretaceous Earth at 94 Mya when the continents were concentrated at the equator and sea level was higher so that 30% of the continent were flooded by low Albedo shallow ocean.
This is Earth with 24% Albedo and global temperatures at +9.0C / +10.0C.
And then 50% Albedo as in Snowball Earth when 50% of the continents were at the South Pole and/or in direct contact with these continents. As in Glaciers build up at the South Pole to 5 kms high and spread by gravity to all the continents in contact with these South Pole continents. As in Earth with 50% Albedo and temperatures at -25.0C from today. As in, the sea ice even extended to 30 degree latitudes. Happened 4 different times in history with the last one peaking at 635 Mya.
Glaciers have 70% Albedos while every other Earth-situation is in the 25% category. Glaciers do not build up on ocean, (one can have sea ice) but it is when the continents/land are at the poles is when the big Albedo variances can happen.
Something as simple as the continental alignment can be +/- 35.0C on planet Earth.
If the Earth did not have a 23 degree tilt (or if it was just 20 degrees or something less), sorry the Earth would just be a permanent IceBall because the snow would NEVER melt at the poles in the summer and they would always be building up into 8 kms high glaciers and pushing towards the equator – ocean or not. IceBall Earth with anything less than a 20 degree tilt..
If the Earth had little ocean and was just mainly continents, sorry IceBall Earth once again. Water turns into ice at the poles, builds into glaciers and pushes toward the equator. Albedo at 50% and IceBall Earth again.
One can imagine 20 other situations where Albedo determines what the temperature of the planet is regardless of whether it is in the goldilocks zone or not. […]
[…]
=
Clear bidecadal order in integrated ENSO volatility (from MEIx):
Beginning now we measure how long the western mainstream ignores this systematic structure.
PV, quoting from Bill Illis says “If the Earth did not have a 23 degree tilt (or if it was just 20 degrees or something less), sorry the Earth would just be a permanent IceBall because the snow would NEVER melt at the poles in the summer and they would always be building up”.
But there is evidence that obliquity was less than 20 degrees. The hypothesis there says that polar ice did build up when it was less, that the resultant effect was ‘climate friction’ (discussed in another thread), resulting in a cyclic change of obliquity. Fantasy?? Not likely since there is evidence that it is not. Two months ago it was proven that a calendar with a 2000 year history of development and relying on obliquity to forecast date, is extremely accurate. That evidence says there were times when obliquity was substantially less in those 2000+ years.
Bill illis says the earth is a really lucky planet. NO. Humanity simply had a breathing space to develop. It may not be so in the future. It wasn’t so in the past and we have enough ancient stories/warnings of that.
Otherwise we might as well hope all the troubles in the EU will be solved by the Tooth Fairy.
oldmanK, I would love to see you and Bill Illis work this out with a SLOW conversation lasting many months (or longer) here at the talkshop. Bill’s the top commentator at wuwt by a wide margin, but I won’t say he’s perfect. I give him 91%. (There was one time when he disappointingly sounded obsequious supporting shamefully distortionist W.E. antics; at least 8 points had to be deducted for that even if it was just a passing judgement slip.)
–
BDO 101
Let’s get these 2 up side-by-side:
1. integrated La Nina – El Nino contrast
2. bidecadal integrated ENSO volatility (from extended multivariate ENSO index (MEIx))
Note that the BDO is clear enough to eyeball in the integrated La Nina – El Nino contrast (#1).
That’s another longstanding evasive puzzle piece not only found but crystallized.
Any academic reading this comment should be able to spend 5 minutes calibrating that to check the amplitude. I outlined the dead simple construction on the most recent RJ Salvador thread (linked above).
I appreciate and respect both RJ & RJ’s contributions and I apologize if it came across otherwise but I just had to respond to his focus on the mean by balancing attention towards the volatility.
I actually don’t understand why people ignore the statistical properties of the volatility, many of which are systematic. I could speculate that their mentors did not sufficiently emphasize residual diagnosis of theoretically false inferential assumptions. I might also suspect a lack of luminary spatiotemporal aggregation criteria provocation — i.e. an educational void where they just didn’t encounter any mentors philosophically luminary in that area.
I learned some helpful diagnostic tips from foresters and biologists. I only ever met one mathematical statistician who devoted due attention to thorough diagnostics. 99+% of the math-statisticians just blew blizzards of algebra with never even a thought devoted to the possibility of false theoretical assumptions or what to do if/when they’re diagnosed empirically.
On spatiotemporal aggregation criteria I was blessed with the exceptionally good fortune of luminary mentoring from a population biologist with the patience and endurance to provoke students to philosophical extremes. My top 2 mentors were mavericks.
Overcoming cross-cultural awareness obstacles takes time (skipping due empirical diagnostics is a cultural problem, not a theoretical problem), but the overdue backlash on widespread p-value abuse at least signals that a wake-up call is underway (a little too late).
If/when time permits I’ll illustrate the ENSO volatility BDO using alternate methods, along with the arctic oscillation = northern annular mode interannual frequency coupling I’ve previously mentioned.
An important exercise for all sensible, responsible parties…
See if you can spot the FALSE assumptions about ENSO volatility structure:
How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?
http://papers.tinbergen.nl/13007.pdf
I need to give you a reason to TRY to understand what I’ve illustrated.
What I’ve illustrated is dead simple and rock solid.
If you can’t easily understand it, we have a serious problem.
The attitude they have (cavalier attitude towards residual diagnostics) is literally “F*** global stability!”
If you search “volc” in their paper, you won’t even find mention of volcanoes.
They don’t even see the connection between volcanoes and volatility.
People like this and like Mark Carney are going to walk western security and global stability off a cliff if not persuaded towards better sense with a due sense of urgency.
It’s important to understand illustrations 1 & 2 from my last post. Everyone should be able to do it. That math is that easy. I’m here to coach on this one. Don’t be embarrassed if you need help. Be brave and publicly ask for help on this one if you need it. Ignorance isn’t going to stop the damage Carney and others are going to do to global stability with their “planning” based on studies like this.
Sincerely
Something else to think about:
Look at what the wind is doing to ocean current speeds around the ice margins in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean:
More maps here:
Global ocean surface velocities from drifters: mean, variance, ENSO response, & seasonal cycle
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dac/LumpkinJohnson2013.pdf
Willie Soon: ice ages, & seasonality of volcanic activity https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/755066131740626944
(Gets going 29:00)
PV, I would also like to discuss the subject further, but from some solid anchor point.
The subject at WUWT is ~100% speculative, tending on fantasy. It was, the other day, the anniversary of the moon landing (47th). I feel privileged to have been studying engineering in those years, at the moment that ages long human dreams were turning to reality. In forty years no one has been able to visit the moon again, and we talk of inhabiting worlds in other solar systems. Already youngsters today listen to that era 40 years ago with semi-disbelief, like something a generation of older men invented to hide behind when faced with today’s advanced technical gadgetry.
But let’s be positive, and maybe i may interest someone to work on it. In all this climate discussion, obliquity is at the root of it. But the two main formulae that express how it changes (Wittmann’s and Lieske’s) in reality only hold good for the past two millennia. We have readings for what it was a thousand years before that. My aim is to tinker with that formula to make it fit better the whole 3k years. Any takers on that?
oldmanK, wuwt is not a suitable venue for serious discussion. It’s too bent by political mission.
I suspect that something quite interesting will arise if some way (other than wuwt and other than CE) can be found for you & Bill Illis to communicate.
If there are data you find interesting, please link to them or post them. I remember you linking to some hand-drawn illustration, but I don’t remember any link to a plain-text data page.
Something different:
http://www.imeche.org/news/news-article/uk-gas-grid-could-be-converted-to-hydrogen-finds-report?utm_medium=email&utm_source=industry_update&utm_campaign=process&utm_content=july_2016&hq_e=el&hq_m=1057505&hq_l=11&hq_v=92c94bc85a
A chemistry text book I consulted on Hydrogen years ago said -matter of fact- “those who dabbled with hydrogen never lived to tell” (exact quote). I would like to know how that has been overcome, in the kitchen especially. Safety apart, the hydrogen flame is very hot – I like my egg fried not carbonised.
Following on from:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/07/15/decc-is-dead-its-ghost-now-haunts-the-business-energy-and-industry-dept/comment-page-1/#comment-118394
Confirmation:
Draconic aliasing biases AO (arctic oscillation). Wow. It’s so clear now. I could already see 6-7 & 19 years ago, but 96 cements it. I don’t see any possibility that the mainstream can ignore this and simultaneously maintain a semblance of credibility.
I’m sure Piers Corbyn is well aware of the polar motion connection (6-7 & 19), but I suspect the 96 derivation I gave (based on QBO, semi-annual, & annual — see exchange with Ed above where I reviewed and clarified with slip-illustration what I had earlier glossed over with numbers-only at higher speed on days when too busy) adds a new level of clarity.
OB, at June 20, 2016 at 4:42 pm you quoted something I later corrected. I hope Sidorenkov realizes that 35 & 96 are 2 sides of the same coin. (I’ll look to find time to outline a clarifying review relatively soon.)
Someone should persuade Lindzen to comment on Pukite’s baiting relatively soon.
This is moving fast. It’s like declassification or something…
This may be of some interest.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/07/13/1524316113.abstract
Fortnightly modulation of San Andreas tremor and low-frequency earthquakes
Significance
The sun and moon exert a gravitational tug on Earth that stretches and compresses crustal rocks.
This cyclic stressing can promote or inhibit fault slip, particularly at the deep roots of faults.
The amplitude of the solid Earth tide varies over a fortnightly (2-wk) cycle, as the sun and moon
change their relative positions in the sky. In this study, we show that deep, small earthquakes
on the San Andreas Fault are most likely to occur during the waxing fortnightly tide—not when
the tidal amplitude is highest, as might be expected, but when the tidal amplitude most exceeds
its previous value. The response of faults to the tidal cycle opens a window into the workings of
plate tectonics.
Of interest to some, maybe:
http://www.powermag.com/severe-solar-storm-could-shut-down-u-s-grid-for-months-study-says/?hq_e=el&hq_m=3267175&hq_l=4&hq_v=09f17d4df9
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2016/07/21/scientists-design-car-crash-proof-human/
Australian bureaucrats find new ways to waste money…pg
A nice lesson in fundamentals:
The time is right to evict the California dark agents from the climate discussion.
I’ve run diagnostics. The ENSO BDO is J-S, not Hale.
I’m running a series of diagnostics that separate IPO from MEIx and split MEIx into mean and volatility components. One extremely noteworthy insight is that MEIx mean’s spatial pattern IS SPATIALLY ORTHOGONAL TO MEIx volatility’s spatial pattern. (Read that sentence again.) Textbooks on climate spatiotemporal pattern will have to be rewritten. Since this is orthogonal to everyone’s thinking and instincts, it won’t sink in.
This is where the going gets heavy for those hoping for lighter reading…
Expanding on that last comment because probably none of this will be intuitive for anyone…
Although locally in time the correlation of MEIx with MEIx volatility is a perfect 1, globally (in time) it is 0.
If you take the spatial derivative of the MEIx EOF (empirical orthogonal function) you can weight from that a PC (principal component) that estimates MEIx volatility.
You will find the underpinning spatiotemporal theory nowhere in textbooks. As Tomas Milanovic has counseled us: A complete theory of spatiotemporal chaos does not yet exist.
What we are learning from exploration is that a temporal theory of chaos SIMPLY WILL NOT DO in a SPATIOtemporal context. NOTHING I have seen ANYWHERE in textbooks or in climate discussion OR ANYWHERE would have conditioned me to KNOW to look for what I found by simply exploring. I’m discovering this BY LOOKING.
Someone else with mathematical prowess — if they look at this stuff with due seriousness (won’t happen at venues like wuwt for political reasons) — may wake up and know how to write down the equations governing the relationship of the temporal volatility and the spatial derivatives. This will be a wake-up call for them because they’re more inclined to thinking the surface spatial derivative should relate to the time derivative, but that thinking is wrong because it ignores the z-axis (which goes both into the sky and underwater).
The time derivative does have some relation with the surface spatial derivative, but the surface spatial derivative’s relation to the time volatility is MUCH stronger.
This is a key clue about what has been going wrong with conceptualization of climate spatiotemporal pattern in conventional minds. For action on the z-axis the volatility plays a role in variation in surface spatial extent. People may have difficulty making that interpretation even if they understand that not only the time derivative but also the volatility BOTH are globally orthogonal to the series from which they are derived. (Think carefully about that last statement until you grasp it.)
I don’t expect anyone to understand what I’m writing, but if/when time permits I’ll illustrate it and there will be some “seeing is believing” even if it won’t make sense to people why it is so.
There are really simple things that exist even if people don’t yet understand why. That may be a difficult fact to accept for some…
May I suggest we open Suggestions-20…
Insights this clear and simplifying must surely be divinely inspired…
…and it correlates PERFECTLY with their beloved aerosols! Who would have thought?? Certainly not them! They f****d up royally… …and it’s criminal that THEY get the free ride.
[mod] S-20 is not far away
Tip: Anyone trying to tell you something about ENSO with no mention of volcanoes: total BS.
According to NOAA’s ERSSTv4, volcano physics reversed ~1940?…
They’re being deathly silent about the natural cause of their bias reversal. Remember: THEY get the free ride… THEY f****d up and they get the free ride…
Here’s a tip:
volcano
volatility
…and would you believe all of the “corrections” NOAA made from v3b to v4 were perfectly related to volcanic activity?? (Even they don’t know!!!)
(really simple illustrations forthcoming on Suggestions-20…)
Yup Paul, please give us some illustrations. Easier for us less qualified followers to understand and conceptualise.
Volcanos and ENSO together add up to huge economic risk/reward factors.
“The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is a delicate balance between what is emitted from natural sources and by human activity, and what is absorbed by the oceans and by plant life on land. Scientists have been puzzled about why the level of CO2 dipped slightly during a prolonged cool period called the Little Ice Age (1500-1750AD). Using measurements of atmospheric gases trapped in an ice core collected by British Antarctic Survey nearly 20 years ago, our colleagues have been able to explain that less CO2 was released from natural sources as the climate cooled.”
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-07-polar-ice-reveals-secrets-carbon-climate.html
So to expect an increase in CO2 following the LIA would be quite natural 😉
More exoplanetary resonance – Kepler-80.
‘Another rare attribute of the Kepler-80 system is that its planets have “synchronized” orbits. “The outer four planets return to almost exactly the same configuration every 27 days,” said Ragozzine. This effect is known as a “resonance” and helps the system remain gravitationally stable.’
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-07-alien-solar-tightly-spaced-planets.html
This GIF shows the synchronized orbit of the Kepler-80 system. Credit: Florida Institute of Technology
Another 96:
in the integral of the ENSO component extracted from ICOADS meridional wind. (You won’t find it in zonal.)
This makes sense given that we’re looking at a cycling pole-pole contrast.
As always: illustrations forthcoming.
More baffled scientists:
‘Researchers have discovered that four old red dwarf stars with masses less than half that of the Sun are emitting X-rays at a much lower rate than expected.’
“We found that these smaller stars have magnetic fields that decrease as they age, exactly as it does in stars like our Sun,” said Wright. “This really goes against what we would have expected.”
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-07-astronomers-gain-insight-magnetic-field.html
Some readers maybe interested in this youtube video by Tony Heller alias Steve Goddard on “Evaluating The Integrity Of Official Climate Records” July 13, 2016.
Hi,
Tim, roger and oldbrew
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/7/583/2016/
“…….This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250…..”
Michele
🙂
Breakthrough solar cell captures carbon dioxide and sunlight, produces burnable fuel
http://phys.org/news/2016-07-breakthrough-solar-cell-captures-carbon.html
“The new solar cell is not photovoltaic—it’s photosynthetic,” says Amin Salehi-Khojin, assistant professor of mechanical and industrial engineering at UIC and senior author on the study.
Thanks Michele – the link says: ‘The TSI spectral results (see Sect. S4) show three main,
significant periodicities around 5000, 2400 and 900 years’
The 900 year periodicity can be explained as the half period of de Rop’s 1799 year anomalistic cycle.
A maximum occurs at perihelion every 1799 years and the minimum is at aphelion half way through that cycle [1799/2 = 899.5 years].
de Rop: ‘only once in about 1 800 years the line of nodes
and the line of apsides (the Moon in its perigee)
coincides with the major axis of the Earth’s
orbit and the position of the Earth in the
perihelion. In case of this double coincidence,
the tidal forces exerted by Sun and Moon will
reach an absolute maximum.’
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/01/05/de-rops-long-term-lunar-cycle/
We find that the difference between the number of anomalistic and draconic months in 1799 anomalistic years is almost exactly 300.
de Rop explains:
‘The perigee moves 0.164 358 002 0 a day relative
to the node, corresponding to 360 [degrees] in a period p
2190.340565 days. So, when the perigee of
the Moon’s orbit coincides with the ascending
node, then this situation repeats after
2190.340565 days. This period p corresponds
to 5.996 667 350 anomalistic years, thus nearly
an entire number of anomalistic years. A period
of 300 p corresponds to 1799.0002050 anomalistic
years, hence, to exactly an entire number of
anomalistic years.’
In other words, the amount of time by which period p falls short of 6 anomalistic years accumulates to one anomalistic year after every 1799 years (300 x 6, minus 1).
Been around some time oldbrew. I too noticed the peddling in the press again.
Needs concentrated CO2, that doesn’t appear by magic in vast amounts. Give money.
Energy density is where all these fantasy ideas fall. A productivity matter as much as anything.
Dr Spencer wades in again: ‘The Warm Earth: Greenhouse Effect, or Atmospheric Pressure?’
July 30th, 2016
‘Finally, just because the greenhouse effect exists does not mean that global warming in response to increasing carbon dioxide will be a serious problem…that is another issue entirely, and involves things like cloud feedbacks. I’m only referring to the existence of the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect, which to me is largely settled science.’
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/07/the-warm-earth-greenhouse-effect-or-atmospheric-pressure/
Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 20 now.
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