Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like.😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 18

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Body Of Proof: Large Number Of Studies Show Medieval Warm Period “Prominent In Southern Hemisphere”

    It was always difficult to see how a rotating globe with atmospheric and ocean circulation could isolate a long-term climate change to one hemisphere, or even part of one.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Alexander J. Mustill et al. Is there an exoplanet in the Solar system?
    Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters (2016). DOI: 10.1093/mnrasl/slw075

    Read more at:

    It requires a lot more research before it can be ascertained that Planet 9 is the first exoplanet in our solar system. If the theory is correct, Alexander Mustill believes that the study of space and the understanding of the sun and the Earth will take a giant leap forward.

    “This is the only exoplanet that we, realistically, would be able to reach using a space probe”, he says.

  4. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s time to drag this out as a reminder:

  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    The key to solar wind — ENSO — volcano coupling:

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    FYI I’m using Panama Canal as a placeholder. (I’m sure some of you figured that out.)

  7. Paul Vaughan says:

    QBO is not a component of ENSO. It’s a contaminant.

  8. oldbrew says:
  9. RJ Salvador says:

    Below is an update to May1st 2016 of the LOD model.

    The earth has slowed down this spring faster than the model predicted but still within 2 standard deviations of the models prediction.

    Below is a graphic of the model with the lower 2 standard deviation line included in light blue. This type of deviation occurs within the correlation period as well.

    [reply] thanks RJ

  10. oldbrew says:

    Report: ‘The world is about to install 700 million air conditioners.’

    “We expect that the demand for cooling as economies improve, particularly in hot climates, is going to be an incredible driver of electricity requirements,” U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said in an interview.

    ‘Overall, the Berkeley report projects that the world is poised to install 700 million air conditioners by 2030, and 1.6 billion of them by 2050. In terms of electricity use and greenhouse gas emissions, that’s like adding several new countries to the world.’

    One of the few applications where solar panels could make any kind of sense.

    Alarmists: how about a positive feedback loop?
    More A/C = more electricity = more GHG = more warming = more A/C [repeat ad infinitum] – yeah.
    Ring the alarm bells, pile on the doom and gloom. Go!

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    Holistic Vision Aid…

    Venus Transit Cycle Origin:
    [J-(√5)S]/2 = 1/239.1089279
    8V-13E = 1/238.9324164
    [J-(√5)S]/2 = 8V-13E

    96, including N-S solar asymmetry:
    2[(5E-3V)-(J+S)] = 2Φ[J-(√5)S]

    9-11 IPO:
    (5E-3V)-(J+S) = Φ[J-(√5)S]
    Time-only approaches to ENSO modeling fail to account for this (folded) geometry.

    ERSSTv3b2 multidecadal EOF 2 vs. 3

    lunar nodal & anomalistic month (confounding) tie-in

    ERSSTv4 misrepresents spatiotemporal pattern for political purposes.

  12. oldbrew says:

    King Tut’s Blade Made of Meteorite

    Comelli and colleagues also investigated the possible source of the iron blade.

    “We took into consideration all meteorites found within an area of 2,000 km in radius centered in the Red Sea, and we ended up with 20 iron meteorites,” Comelli said.

    “Only one, named Kharga, turned out to have nickel and cobalt contents which are possibly consistent with the composition of the blade,” she added.

    The meteorite fragment was found in 2000 on a limestone plateau at Mersa Matruh, a seaport some 150 miles west of Alexandria.

    – See more at:

  13. oldbrew says:

    Study Reveals Physics Of Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations

    Researchers explain the physics of Northern Hemisphere warming and cooling cycles, called Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations, that occurred during the last ice age in a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters. Complex computer modelling study agrees well with measurements obtained from Greenland ice core records of the Earth’s past temperature variations providing an insight into the physics driving Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations, a remarkable glacial climate phenomenon.

    From the University of Toronto

  14. oldbrew says:

    California Senate Sidelines Bill To Prosecute Climate Sceptics

    – See more at:

  15. oldbrew says:

    First global map of flow within the Earth’s mantle finds the surface is moving up and down “like a yo-yo”

    “Although we’re talking about timescales that seem incredibly long to you or me, in geological terms, the Earth’s surface bobs up and down like a yo-yo,” said Dr Mark Hoggard of Cambridge’s Department of Earth Sciences, the paper’s lead author. “Over a period of a million years, which is our standard unit of measurement, the movement of the mantle can cause the surface to move up and down by hundreds of metres.”

    “These results will have wider reaching implications, such as how we map the circulation of the world’s oceans in the past, which are affected by how quickly the sea floor is moving up and down and blocking the path of water currents,” said Hoggard. “Considering that the surface is moving much faster than we had previously thought, it could also affect things like the stability of the ice caps and help us to understand past climate change.”

    Source: University of Cambridge [May 10, 2016]

  16. oldbrew says:

    Great Barrier Reef reality check

    Activist scientists and lobby groups have distorted surveys, maps and data to misrepresent the extent and impact of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, ­according to the chairman of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Russell Reichelt.

    A full survey of the reef ­released yesterday by the author­ity and the Australian Institute of Marine ­Science said 75 per cent of the reef would escape unscathed.

    Dr Reichelt said the vast bulk of bleaching damage was confined to the far northern section off Cape York, which had the best prospect of recovery due to the lack of ­onshore development and high water quality.

  17. oldbrew says:

    Elevated CO2 and Temperature Enhance the Grain Yield and Quality of Rice

  18. oldbrew says:

    Forgetting that NASA astronauts include numerous ‘climate sceptics’, fanatics want to ‘send a sceptic to space’ to somehow convince them a trace gas is responsible for slightly warming the Earth.

    NASA’s Finest Are Climate Skeptics

    Unlike the pathetic little weasels at GISS, NASA’s finest are climate skeptics.

  19. Paul Vaughan says:

    “What have you learned from Tibetan ice cores?

    They have given us a glimpse of Tibet’s climate history going back to more than half a million years. We learned that the extent of glaciation is related to how far monsoonal rains penetrate the Tibetan Plateau. This is in step with the slow wobbling of Earth’s rotational axis, which drives tropical rainfall in 21,000-year cycles. We also identified periods when average temperatures in Tibet went up and down by several degrees Celsius in roughly 200-year cycles. It’s still a mystery why that was the case, but we suspect this may be related to the 205-year cycle of solar activity.”

    If anyone sees the actual paper, please let us know. (I’ll be digging in this area moving forward.)

    This emphasizes tropical hydrology (rather than polar temperature), so it can help with conceptual corrections needed in the climate discussion. (too many misconceptions about the role of precession — what it does affect vs. what it doesn’t)

  20. tallbloke says:

    The Lonnie Thompson thing was an invited lecture:

    Invited Lectures and Outreach Activities (482 total)

    2016 The Bernard and Susan Master, Moonlight on the Marsh Distinguished Lecture
    Series, Florida Gulf Coast University. Climate Change: The Evidence, People, and Our
    Options. January 14. Fort Myers, Florida.

    2015 High-amplitude, Centennial-scale Climate Oscillations During the Last Glacial in the
    Western Third Pole as Recorded in the Guliya Ice Cap, AGU GC22E The Third Pole
    Environment (TPE) under Global Changes II Session. December 15, San Francisco,

    But given the number of times he has visited this ice cap over the years, the same observations may well be contained in one of his earlier papers.

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    You can see precession in figure 3 here:
    There polar methane matches tropical hydrology, indicating a tropical methane source for the poles at those times.
    Party media coverage here:
    Too often climate discussion participants have the wrong expectations of precession, so whatever was done in the past here and whatever they may add to it moving forward with new sampling initiatives may provide a good educational opportunity. We’re running into the analog with discussion of multidecadal and it’s not clear why so so so many people just assume all climate variables all move together in unison. It’s gets more than a little creepy quite often watching people assume the hydrological system is some kind of uniform linear function of global average temperature or something like that, however it is they imagine it.

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s an old page “Last Updated: 08/09/97” :
    Here’s somewhere to watch for anything new:

  23. oldbrew says:

    3 Saturn-Uranus conjunctions = φ (1.6189) Uranus orbits in just over 34 x 4 years (136.01514y)

    Multiply by 21:
    34 U = 63 S-U = 97 S (34+63 = 97) in 34 x 21 x 4 years (2856.318y)

    Multiply by 13:
    39 S-U = 89 J-S = 128 J-U (39+89 = 128) in 34 x 13 x 4 years (~1768 years)

    3,13,21,34 and 89 are Fibonacci numbers.
    The smallest number of years that has a whole number of Earth rotations is 4 (365.25 x 4 = 1461 days).

    Ratio of rotation periods U:S (h=hours) = 17.24h:10.656h = 1.6178678:1 = ~φ:1

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    clarification (since OB now appears to be following a different convention):
    Φ = 1/φ = 2/(1+√5) = φ-1 = 0.618033988749895
    φ = (1+√5)/2 = 1.61803398874989

    [reply] corrected, thanks

  25. oldmanK says:

    Professor Lonnie Thompson (the man in the links above) made a very important discovery on the Quelccaya ice cap about 2008. Suddenly frozen plants preserved at the receding ice edge for ~5000years (number subsequently revised downwards). That is more important than anything else because the sudden changes are not modeled in any mathematical model.

    All models are secular in effect, none cover transient events. The evidence for transient events is there (several), and the effect of transient events may override anything else.

    Example: A jump in obliquity (as per Dodwell 14.5 to 24) would lower temperatures at tropics (tropics would be at 14.5 where Quelccaya is and would experience maximum solar heat input reduction. if it occurred in summer there, permanent ice cover would suddenly increase) but raise heat input and temp near poles.

  26. Paul Vaughan says:

    Typo alert

    ” 9-11 IPO:
    (5E-3V)-(J+S) = Φ[J-(√5)S] “

    should read

    9-11 IPO:
    4[(5E-3V)-(J+S)] = 4Φ[J-(√5)S]

    2[(5E-3V)-(J+S)] = 1/96.69017963
    2Φ[J-(√5)S] = 1/96.72159311

    I hope NASA JPL has by now answered the question I raised in ERSST EOF 1234 (IPO – polar motion geometry).

    QBO isn’t lunisolar; it’s 100% solar. I’m working on solar wind and HMF again now in connection with volcano and ENSO timing and spacing.

    ENSO is timed and shaped by the solar wind and you can bet your life on it.

    The tyrannic strategy shift pushing to illegalize climate realism underscores that the international community is developing (long overdue) resistance to darkly underhanded California-based sun-climate belief policing campaigns.

    The climate discussion has been set back at least a decade because people submitted to abusive harassment enforcing false geometric assumptions (notably egregiously false (always hidden from readers and implicitly assumed) north-south terrestrial geography assumptions).

    The only sensible option is to boycott corrupt California venues. They can’t be reformed. They’re heavily infiltrated and fatally compromised. Participation indicates (A) submission to the imagined uniform geography of tyrannical dictators and (B) support for illegalization of respect for nature.

  27. Andrew says:

    We know it’s there, we just can’t see it yet.

  28. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB linked to Jo & David’s latest:

    New Science 25: Seven possible ways the sun could change our cloud cover

    I can again suggest someone fund them to specifically extend their exploration to include spatial dimensions. For example they would then realize that any interhemispheric flow related to interhemispheric polar ozone phasing (1/4 solar Schwabe cycle difference) would in theory be governed by solar cycle length …and that theory matches observation.


    Ignoring spatial heterogeneity takes human recognition of sun-climate geometry exactly nowhere.

    The Californian cultural export enterprise in its hubristic sense of dictatorial entitlement will go as far as illegalizing nature appreciation and respect to artificially maintain an edge for Hollywood fantasy exports threatened by crushing competition in a market open to our domineering yellow star.

    Australian friends: You can have a military alliance with Americans WITHOUT submitting to Californian cultural imperialism. Really simple suggestion: Divorce unneeded entanglement of the 2. On military cooperation give them a clear “Yes!” and on submission to deluded Californian cultural imperialism give them a clear “No!!” The military contract is strong and it doesn’t say you have to submit to Californian sun-climate belief policing based on geometrically impossible spatiotemporal assumptions.

  29. oldbrew says:

    Re Andrew’s link, there’s a mistake in the abstract:
    ‘If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle’
    should read
    ‘If we are to determine whether human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle’

    Even then they are begging the question by assuming ‘human-induced climate change’ is a significant factor, without convincing evidence.

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    That article clarifies that climate discussion is dead.

  31. BLACK PEARL says:

    Is the UKIP bus coming to Newcastle upon Tyne ?
    Emailed UKIP HQ a couple of times to no avail

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    QBO 101

    Solar equatorial rotation period was empirically estimated to be 27.03 days (Neugebauer, Smith, Ruzmaikin, Feynman, & Vaughan (2000)).

    Anything from 27.025 to 27.035 days rounds off to 27.03 days.
    That’s a range of plus or minus 7 minutes 12 seconds.

    Suppose it’s 27.03123117 days, which is 1 minute 46 seconds more than 27.03 days.

    Circulation-wise how would this aggregate with east-west terrestrial asymmetry?

    harmonic of 27.03123117 days nearest 1 day:
    (27.03123117) / 27 = 1.00115671

    (1.00115671)*(1) / (1.00115671 – 1) = 865.5210016 days
    (865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718033 tropical years

  33. Paul Vaughan says:

    CW 101

    Semi-daily aggregation:

    Harmonic of 27.03123117 nearest 1/2 day:
    27.03123117 / 54 = 0.500578355

    (0.500578355)*(0.5) / (0.500578355 – 0.5) = 432.7605008 days
    (432.7605008) / 365.242189 = 1.184859016 = tropical years

  34. Paul Vaughan says:

    Solar cycle length is a spatial indicator of off-equator solar rotation rate (which varies with tilt as sunspot belts cycle equatorward). Solar cycle length is a parameter of heliospheric geometry.

    A time-only view is insufficient. Solar cycle length is a spatial indicator of heliospheric geometry. It summarizes aggregation in the presence of asymmetry.

  35. Paul Vaughan says:


    Solar cycle length estimates listed here are too coarse to be of any climate — or more generally geophysical or heliophysical — diagnostic utility:

    Assessment of 99.999% of climate discussion participants on solar cycle length:
    Far, far beyond incompetent, with absolute zero improvement over time.

    Comment on the human psychology at play:
    People ignore the spatial dimensions and pretend uniformity — i.e. they falsely assume flow patterns are somehow magically independent of physical asymmetries such as north-south land-ocean distribution. It’s beyond ridiculous.

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    The interhemispheric difference in Schwabe solar cycle ozone phasing is +1/4 cycle (north leads south).

    Solar cycles vary in length.
    A constant north-south 1/4 solar cycle phase difference varies (in absolute length) with solar cycle length.

    It’s not a difficult chain of logic to follow.

    Ozone shapes and paces circulation.
    Interhemispheric ozone gradients shape and pace meridional circulation.

    Solar cycle length (which shapes and paces interhemispheric ozone gradients) meridionally shapes and paces circulation.

    Observations CLEARLY point to the role of solar cycle length:

    Go for it ozone modelers.
    You have the recipe.

    Wire the model up for the observed pole-pole 1/4 solar cycle phase difference and you can match the illustrated observations.

    Then you can start more subtle arguments about temperature gradients and wind fields aloft, acquiring grant money to pursue this.

    Maybe one day you will advance to considering the finer-resolution solar-destruction of ozone in non-uniform pattern (along with directional flow consequences). Who says the solar wind always has uniform and symmetric impact?! (Like as if!) Location and orientation of destructive solar impact matter? Location of (and evolution of location of) ozone matters? Same shot hitting different spot at different angle and different time with different amount of ozone there? Different gradient direction (and therefore consequent flow) resulting for different pattern of solar ozone destruction? Therefore opposite or orthogonal effect is feasible? It’s spatiotemporal, not just temporal??

    Start with the easy stuff solar-ozone modelers. You can at least model the multidecadal solar cycle length meridional attractor without too much difficulty. (I suspect bright modelers will be able to mimic observations quite easily.)

    That will give a basis from which to diligently work towards finer-resolution details moving forward. You needed somewhere to start and now you have it.

    I may release a monthly resolution solar cycle length time series if there are good, harmonious solar-ozone modelers who are ready to get serious about multidecadal climate.

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    I agree: Bill Illis calls BS on recent ENSO supposed “bombshell study”:

    Bill Illis
    June 9, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    I think the El Nino’s and La Nina’s just fluctuate from year to year up and down. It is really just a natural short-term oscillation of +/- 2.5C. There can be two or three year events but not a decade and certainly not hundreds of years.

    The mechanisms which drive the ENSO operate on short time-frames of under two years. The drivers are what dictates what it does.

    Maybe they are just picking up the overall 400 year cycles of the climate like the Little Ice Age and MWP and Dark Ages and Roman Warm Period etc. The ENSO did not cause these swings. There is also some type of 60 year climate cycle as well and that is not ENSO-related either but it more likely to be caused by the AMO cycles.

    Maybe they are trying to raise the alarm that global warming will cause a permanent El Nino (or a 400 year long one). They have tried this before and people on their side of the debate fall for it every time.

    – – –

    There’s another silly article up over there suggesting Trump changed his mind about climate because of climategate. That’s an awfully rude and degrading suggestion. The only thing that matters: Does Trump appreciate and respect that the sun dominates terrestrial nature? Note well that this question is NOT answered by saying “He opposes AGW.”

  38. BLACK PEARL says:

    “My father always told me that what’s wrong with lying is that it’s an admission of weakness. If you’re the strongest, you can afford to tell the truth.”
    K. J. PARKER, Evil for Evil

    Cameron tell porkys (pigs again) So Farage must be the stronger !

  39. BLACK PEARL says:

    Cameron’s going after younger voters

    “The trust of the innocent is the liar’s most useful tool.”
    STEPHEN KING, Needful Things

  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    You can’t assume uniformity!!!

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    Recent paper thoughtfully discussing aliasing, aggregation, & uncertainty of spatiotemporal OZONE-temperature correlations at diurnal (1 day), semi-annual (SAO), quasi-biennial (QBO), solar cycle (11 year), & secular (trend) timescales:

    Caution: Like with the recent wuwt article on EL NINO – LA NINA / RAINFALL correlations (where deep spatiotemporal diagnostics such as gridded bivariate seasonal scatterplot matrices with residuals are needed on map-level aggregates to ascertain that severe interpretive errors are not being committed), the observation series (QUITE LIMITINGLY & QUITE UNFORTUNATELY) span only a VERY short period of time.

  42. BLACK PEARL says:

    And to think Nigel got criticised in the Cameron debate over his warnings as being scaremongering
    He always in the end gets proved right

    Those voting in to remain are just living in Denial

  43. Paul Vaughan says:

    In 2015 Natalya Kilifarska argued that THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT is a function of solar activity:

    She stresses the role of north-south SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY and suggests:
    North: galactic cosmic rays (GCR), ionization, geomagnetic field gradient
    South: solar energetic particles, secular geomagnetics

    Not perfect, but usefully provocative.

    A pithy overview of her life’s work (4 pages max) would be welcome — a handful of key graphs along with a list of key observed spatial heterogeneities. The less formal the better.

    If she’s right, THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT is a function of solar cycle length. Suddenly modeling the greenhouse effect would then become interesting.

  44. Fast says:

    The climate changes and changes back again. Especially in Australia.

  45. Paul Vaughan says:

    Let’s see if we can correct the mainstream narrative on solar & volcanic effects on ozone:

    Tip # 1 : spatial dimensions and geometry !

  46. Fast says:

    The TED Talk scam of the so called expert

  47. Paul Vaughan says:

    Interhemispheric Sun-Climate O-Zonal 101:

    YYYY	ERSSTv3b2_9N-90N	SCD_____________	ERSSTv3b2_90S-9N	RI______________	///////	____________r^2	Region
    1855	18.0434220820494	18.0217923525015	18.0083015291037	17.9821917640394	///////	0.8332452746262	9N-90N
    1856	17.9505682934027	18.0084165787013	17.9989446877940	17.9835189881191	///////	0.8413813664804	90S-9N
    1857	17.8756011439114	17.9966000882948	17.9011660706843	17.9848077304901	///////	____________84%	Global
    1858	17.8761043876760	17.9867485960130	17.9612527784771	17.9862158351144	///////		
    1859	17.9290545462169	17.9791754162940	18.0058792452883	17.9878397368266			
    1860	17.9604683962627	17.9740536378695	18.0502931283807	17.9897105656602			
    1861	17.9395352676152	17.9714553648738	18.0536694088424	17.9918099476928			
    1862	17.8831971829375	17.9713623702410	18.0682422623720	17.9940987693870			
    1863	17.9260657086689	17.9736218062949	18.0368649265119	17.9965481720419			
    1864	17.9257723471409	17.9780237633926	18.0151222892180	17.9991614351812			
    1865	17.9890729493489	17.9842990291018	18.0562045634157	18.0019784572776			
    1866	17.9985614806951	17.9921344735272	18.0584193577184	18.0050603662180			
    1867	17.9870654646041	18.0011735621950	18.0422196784704	18.0084585892872			
    1868	18.0407433920793	18.0110737019505	18.0457368227521	18.0121783046982			
    1869	18.1256623317619	18.0214848276307	18.0362778502113	18.0161487231688			
    1870	18.1542434417333	18.0320771820411	18.0479996171576	18.0202111936070
    1871	18.0879089040931	18.0425351542126	18.0517751224689	18.0241310613280
    1872	18.0579745905727	18.0526072554157	18.0265501259620	18.0276320966940
    1873	18.0200151459796	18.0620643432063	18.0203980383681	18.0304454116031
    1874	18.0119417585376	18.0707291372372	17.9729333841259	18.0323602767889
    1875	18.0348684316490	18.0785049750653	18.0445536573707	18.0332635298715
    1876	18.0880269572397	18.0853539781062	18.0322988443083	18.0331574714376
    1877	18.2244074219618	18.0912919380201	18.1310011094412	18.0321522028601
    1878	18.2458289370137	18.0963992174860	18.1525308717280	18.0304353691731
    1879	18.1081180323423	18.1008136928978	18.1121432423989	18.0282281637186
    1880	18.0648582864812	18.1047221236489	18.0855764177579	18.0257396132066
    1881	18.0770727965057	18.1083217545285	18.1358492177714	18.0231308530113
    1882	18.0769336739065	18.1118126187160	18.0824736476599	18.0204975887869
    1883	18.1029192991142	18.1153628353192	18.0791845604312	18.0178733450874
    1884	18.0208216186066	18.1190782398741	18.0426676729027	18.0152500590650
    1885	18.0084255232037	18.1229929603830	18.0407416878467	18.0126077874988
    1886	18.0850077595073	18.1270337970187	18.0437435348394	18.0099430772594
    1887	18.0971782184660	18.1309998314175	17.9369798290590	18.0072864881275
    1888	18.1726068671431	18.1345569472131	18.0390357960069	18.0047035332614
    1889	18.1685381892212	18.1372183302833	18.0778557404929	18.0022787645134
    1890	18.0064654648369	18.1383881090142	17.9192063307491	18.0000882133472
    1891	18.0573008238428	18.1373649057686	17.9615451628525	17.9981692237832
    1892	17.9642149194825	18.1333825209046	17.9081180833143	17.9964977116083
    1893	17.9218839081356	18.1256855696296	17.8822340176492	17.9949807701411
    1894	17.9248229405372	18.1135795225446	17.9029193424279	17.9934680080281
    1895	18.0104767095739	18.0965497901237	17.9852825659979	17.9917794759159
    1896	18.0865612907435	18.0743010391355	18.0911926604719	17.9897432001238
    1897	18.0563876115763	18.0469139076695	18.0330842414195	17.9872325909562
    1898	17.9860913295367	18.0148297462600	17.9080819259413	17.9841940343790
    1899	17.9794326473078	17.9788907243118	18.0097444368168	17.9806576672778
    1900	18.0511336850148	17.9402720643446	18.0060962079964	17.9767288179668
    1901	18.0036447339605	17.9004016513154	17.9136397412828	17.9725625983053
    1902	17.8917006868066	17.8608334640553	17.9157416758575	17.9683283584184
    1903	17.8093319281107	17.8230614124671	17.8124253684159	17.9641731343245
    1904	17.7432354962499	17.7884120299109	17.7863648864438	17.9601932884836
    1905	17.8618637044749	17.7578954398270	17.9256547607997	17.9564212839222
    1906	17.8961300927621	17.7321594169083	17.8675708463465	17.9528305083061
    1907	17.8014098242989	17.7114887127254	17.8336714928955	17.9493562672661
    1908	17.7321104105534	17.6958488561400	17.7485217457050	17.9459267126645
    1909	17.7266682608465	17.6849477501589	17.6876844653339	17.9424947260941
    1910	17.6703075605635	17.6783217688835	17.6816580883876	17.9390614514679
    1911	17.7344206242519	17.6754231795541	17.7263791238457	17.9356844645030
    1912	17.7432329270211	17.6756782981794	17.8437515470393	17.9324679509611
    1913	17.6443868896468	17.6785884856302	17.8509233541546	17.9295375548464
    1914	17.7934031470394	17.6837231676268	17.9303286171449	17.9270072048528
    1915	17.9479928530096	17.6907783076145	17.9772856932513	17.9249477721748
    1916	17.8360154406712	17.6995558837604	17.8126034051629	17.9233669652050
    1917	17.7941316447737	17.7099803837173	17.8171248206719	17.9222064553650
    1918	17.8545356485640	17.7220623495356	17.9345208884148	17.9213568687005
    1919	17.8075458228143	17.7359159270334	17.9212439490857	17.9206856936107
    1920	17.8297418069678	17.7517148748529	17.8927883012676	17.9200692162747
    1921	17.8907659348356	17.7696335814221	17.8801129076836	17.9194186586988
    1922	17.8547951461226	17.7898284505869	17.8460604050793	17.9186930914002
    1923	17.8569269250218	17.8124141406858	17.8818497152542	17.9178965747730
    1924	17.9485924530661	17.8374189327332	17.8496781903610	17.9170626011572
    1925	17.9741903317797	17.8647362773947	17.8754050459247	17.9162332389341
    1926	18.0767846941638	17.8941343281128	17.9574172315572	17.9154418600518
    1927	18.0773732922686	17.9252264257750	17.9179086563660	17.9147064441955
    1928	18.0258005024914	17.9574843642541	17.9034596710970	17.9140359167396
    1929	18.0190904554666	17.9902697617777	17.8562594603990	17.9134464978723
    1930	18.1508715579114	18.0228957252714	17.9425932755284	17.9129806881947
    1931	18.1538297706955	18.0546547804881	17.9849911223045	17.9127199744432
    1932	18.1325691902057	18.0848767089805	17.9271073498519	17.9127842772747
    1933	18.0854414657532	18.1129739481017	17.8825871748524	17.9133159679035
    1934	18.1026373671869	18.1385102078241	17.9362522597065	17.9144522434269
    1935	18.1285273494670	18.1611750658877	17.9627652032725	17.9162945595560
    1936	18.2070010510414	18.1808287318466	17.9830053184804	17.9188857544462
    1937	18.2915176907724	18.1974742374395	18.0598216667745	17.9222035553606
    1938	18.2471050434226	18.2112404550715	18.0448182399014	17.9261738397624
    1939	18.1602419384958	18.2223501735459	18.0996642568972	17.9307001122253
    1940	18.2012730665094	18.2310940597805	18.1847837061539	17.9356996400224
    1941	18.2382717018123	18.2378005980167	18.2341288445876	17.9411338528709
    1942	18.2727146201705	18.2428116887960	18.1415795101562	17.9470221886965
    1943	18.2668412188538	18.2464560730518	18.0971438434978	17.9534342115045
    1944	18.3321417987850	18.2490310310288	18.1838662616475	17.9604626500554
    1945	18.2850756113375	18.2508071991424	18.1376406390394	17.9681871880046
    1946	18.1322446444474	18.2520088319857	18.0169806107381	17.9766426315823
    1947	18.0596901430722	18.2528185757707	17.9931494932992	17.9858038608028
    1948	18.0745418670114	18.2533746994077	17.9721952422178	17.9955939163340
    1949	18.1076547459338	18.2537714808154	17.9658126108282	18.0059127309160
    1950	18.1281631394674	18.2540625570594	17.9532529195785	18.0166756275693
    1951	18.2439135906099	18.2542612254430	18.0396505889859	18.0278460500747
    1952	18.2612900177505	18.2543541398384	18.1260062214228	18.0394480980548
    1953	18.2153963777625	18.2542950601013	18.1291433965238	18.0515512370090
    1954	18.1484711914606	18.2539974447855	17.9800054902218	18.0642297709599
    1955	18.1344982251230	18.2533688135827	17.9383105682282	18.0775095975058
    1956	18.1056151457605	18.2522813102419	18.0187063341536	18.0913206453012
    1957	18.2170624218937	18.2506081147550	18.1780808096217	18.1054728461035
    1958	18.2752486616449	18.2482072219111	18.1620926414136	18.1196664863563
    1959	18.2412588384369	18.2449420192533	18.1287647234358	18.1335366878731
    1960	18.2330595191098	18.2406822847898	18.1163200525545	18.1467204794079
    1961	18.2688848406258	18.2353271771980	18.1458821269433	18.1589273985866
    1962	18.2720053324971	18.2288073635316	18.1419196721221	18.1699933666261
    1963	18.2600737017072	18.2211049282062	18.1674540106403	18.1799029829085
    1964	18.1190000107745	18.2122636489615	18.0428067100893	18.1887753874599
    1965	18.0437119270209	18.2023891764279	18.0915985046490	18.1968199769498
    1966	18.1948078203955	18.1916735711203	18.1031879979856	18.2042768965205
    1967	18.2368548428781	18.1803732527913	18.0703714482661	18.2113607728138
    1968	18.2058957780441	18.1688202991187	18.1539574665583	18.2182238058467
    1969	18.2019938346339	18.1574050121307	18.3166499793263	18.2249471887387
    1970	18.1297479725326	18.1465479889442	18.2111652630073	18.2315603482438
    1971	18.0194851152511	18.1366844254187	18.1551345931906	18.2380786971008
    1972	18.0471099182757	18.1282330791702	18.3450378272932	18.2445450818692
    1973	18.1053230539628	18.1215705237822	18.3110819341717	18.2510594257770
    1974	18.0202361445187	18.1170102719577	18.1806586162878	18.2577852786036
    1975	17.9988370664150	18.1147800949841	18.1386404794575	18.2649297418605
    1976	17.9707795587351	18.1150098385858	18.2071503588447	18.2727021460825
    1977	18.1105958317372	18.1177314804897	18.3238349124497	18.2812641466860
    1978	18.1325012525361	18.1228815589126	18.2723928674146	18.2906872184738
    1979	18.1625975311224	18.1303152122086	18.3658521447687	18.3009316642690
    1980	18.1823437781356	18.1398195696044	18.3750410270982	18.3118546285023
    1981	18.1850307658415	18.1511228347938	18.3205755556407	18.3232452525136
    1982	18.1343910009107	18.1639267979606	18.3727512056851	18.3348761063616
    1983	18.1375112317704	18.1779165153601	18.4532405094980	18.3465545135119
    1984	18.1170535467809	18.1927783162951	18.3279158384600	18.3581574074524
    1985	18.0737402521999	18.2082136936965	18.2986837443658	18.3696390817586
    1986	18.1123599624204	18.2239518890959	18.3553627067077	18.3810107095612
    1987	18.1907391058205	18.2397546765851	18.4970493091633	18.3923004554518
    1988	18.2546580893912	18.2554179268541	18.4052386949730	18.4035097805163
    1989	18.2497750424305	18.2707790724154	18.3526606997085	18.4145826571335
    1990	18.3383955538493	18.2857163278993	18.4391419339572	18.4253994443121
    1991	18.2907499353349	18.3001408613843	18.4629744275181	18.4357979569302
    1992	18.1800520726338	18.3140038602770	18.4220184423497	18.4456141859201
    1993	18.1717854723271	18.3272791913539	18.4018796895082	18.4547278624737
    1994	18.2927609774863	18.3399683410786	18.3981002693010	18.4630961881326
    1995	18.3694612802835	18.3520937371472	18.4288199886045	18.4707631424843
    1996	18.3265076213825	18.3636936995519	18.4252011638131	18.4778402517335
    1997	18.4319871150211	18.3748194108785	18.5780300431320	18.4844644904216
    1998	18.4985709401326	18.3855374087951	18.6109559985562	18.4907467103114
    1999	18.3821953315367	18.3959045533956	18.4232920656464	18.4967271402463
    2000	18.4015334812723	18.4059913673405	18.4293789005477	18.5023522513252
    2001	18.4748479555461	18.4158747071328	18.5266467033074	18.5074806289433
    2002	18.4649612222958	18.4256116728278	18.5936885118373	18.5119167655164
    2003	18.5346783157770	18.4352938982867	18.5899061491221	18.5154636611275
    2004	18.5751533632706	18.4449736683211	18.5352430295712	18.5179800923555
    2005	18.5805924016537	18.4547210931944	18.5384880964285	18.5194275565590
    2006	18.5301240281740	18.4645930317251	18.5396897097960	18.5198950747017
    2007	18.4870037261363	18.4746475485303	18.4647833186116	18.5195960145694
    2008	18.4774498292588	18.4849359244911	18.4389787708747	18.5188380806465
    2009	18.5191498453371	18.4954989523007	18.5872372336608	18.5179737998235
    2010	18.5391225978582	18.5063550308802	18.5673592854313	18.5173428356597
    2011	18.4667254145041	18.5175224977674	18.4672325947340	18.5172185780084
    2012	18.5165653240907	18.5289867928283	18.5009134690833	18.5177696855654

    That will be enough for bright o-zonal modelers to quickly get the multidecadal meridional job done to first order without further unnecessary delay.

  48. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sun-Climate 101

    Assignment # 4:

    1. Graph the residuals for north and south. (1.5)
    2. Graph the area-weighted global residuals. (1.5)
    3. Isolate and graph the BDO (bidecadal oscillation) from the area-weighted global residuals (remembering that BDO’s origin is an east-west, not north-south asymmetry). (4)
    4. Calculate BDO r^2. (0.5)
    5. Diagnose BDO residuals (2) and report their r^2. (0.5)

    /10 (marking scheme bracketed)

    Due: June 23, 2015 — overdue by almost 1 year but without further delay excellent late submissions may earn partial credit — see immediately above (June 15, 2016 at 6:57 am) for answers from assignments #2 & 3 needed for assignment #4.

  49. Paul Vaughan says:

    Assignment #4 Q2 hint for Sun-Climate 101 students:

    Proportion of global area north & south of thermal equator:


    (Copy & paste into Excel.)

  50. ivan says:

    Interesting that the Antikythera Mechanism appears to have been able to calculate several planetary rotations.

  51. erl happ says:

    A query to those more knowledgeable than I. What do you imagine is the mechanism behind the variations in the spin of the Earth on its axis measured as variation in the length of day?

    Is that same mechanism also responsible for the faster rotation of the Earths atmosphere than the Earth itself in the same direction as the Earth (west to east) but amplified in speed at higher latitudes?

    Has anyone compared the speed (u) or direction (v) of the zonal wind in high latitudes of the southern hemisphere with the variations that are observed in the length of day?

    Implication: Atmospheric motion is not driven by equatorial heating but via electromagnetic forces that are strongest at the poles.

    Is anyone suggesting that the Earths rotation is a product of the interaction of an electric current and a magnetic field?

  52. oldbrew says:

    Some LOD-related posts at the Talkshop:

  53. oldbrew says:

    ivan – from Wikipedia: Antikythera

    They like their ‘boffins’ at the Register😉

  54. Paul Vaughan says:

    Halstatt, D-O, & de Vries from annual aliasing of volatility structure of JEV, J-S, & U-N:

    (19.86503587)*(11.06923834) / (19.86503587 – 11.06923834) = 24.9995314
    (19.86503587)*(11.06923834) / (19.86503587 + 11.06923834) = 7.108323121

    The slip cycle of fast & slow (analogous to JEV geometric derivation):
    harmonic of 24.9995314 nearest 7.108323121:
    24.9995314 / 4 = 6.24988285
    (7.108323121)*(6.24988285) / (7.108323121 – 6.24988285) = 51.7522165

    Note that every 4th cycle that is going to align with the terrestrial year, so checking the slip on the year:

    harmonic of 51.7522165 nearest 1:
    51.7522165 / 52 = 0.995234933
    (1)*(0.995234933) / (1 – 0.995234933) = 208.860626

    harmonic of 208.860626 nearest 1:
    208.860626 / 209 = 0.999333139
    (1)*(0.999333139) / (1 – 0.999333139) = 1498.562242

    (164.79132)*(84.016846) / (164.79132 – 84.016846) = 171.4062162
    (171.4062162)*(164.79132) / (171.4062162 – 164.79132) = 4270.098235

    (4270.098235)*(1498.562242) / (4270.098235 – 1498.562242) = 2308.830916

  55. Paul Vaughan says:

    Erl, multidecadal meridional wind relates to SCD (a simple consequence of physical asymmetry).
    Global wind relates to the integral of solar activity.

    Temperature, pressure, wind, & sea surface height are all spatiotemporally coupled, as are earth orientation parameters …demanding holism.

  56. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Erl, hang in there with EMF coupling. Everything in the Universe is connected by fields of energy in concert. Every Electron feels the motion of all the others to some degree. Every Proton is a bar magnet in motion. All coupled in some degree through EMF, Electro Magnetic Fields in motion. Even Gravity will in time be accepted as a manifestation created by these same fields of energy…pg

  57. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve been deepening exploration of 96.
    I’ve discovered a north-south contrast in the pattern of volcanic-aerosol polar-deposition.
    When time permits I’ll illustrate and tie this in with the de Vries, D-O, Halstatt derivations above.

    – –

    I hope by now everyone has plotted the area-weighted residuals (see June 15, 2016 at 7:36 am) against extended MEI. Easy lesson: You can’t ignore north-south & east-west asymmetry pretending we have a uniform globe.

    So once again the test is: Given 2 columns of numbers, can curious participants subtract 1 column of numbers from another …and then (trivially) recognize ENSO? We’ll see!

    These are the types of dead-simple tests that yield useful information about why climate discussion so seldom advances.

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    Is Earth pear-shaped, flat, or round?

    This guy lost it (threw propane canister in campfire) when she insisted flat and wouldn’t back down: (also includes conspiracy to cover up pear-shape)

    Not so funny when reflecting on darker chapters in history.

  59. oldbrew says:

    Coral expert prosecuted by Aussie university for noticing that a coral reef still exists

    Lubos Motl writes: ‘Peter Ridd is a coral reef expert who used to work with Bob Carter as a postdoc (among others). He has seen lots of evidence that many of the catastrophic claims about the coral reef are based on sloppy or intentionally misleading observations or downright indefensible.’

    ‘It is absolutely crazy and lethal for the scientific method to impose constraints – de iure or de facto constraints – that make it impossible to report good news.’

  60. Paul Vaughan says:

    Exploration Update:
    Decadal Chandler Wobble amplitude and explosive volcanism are coupled.
    For most of the record there’s coherence with HMF B and/or solar wind.

  61. oldbrew says:

    Methanol Detected in Protoplanetary Disc around Young Star TW Hydrae

    ‘Fossil’ fuel found floating around in exoplanetary systems.

  62. oldbrew says:

    Study: Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air-Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models.

    Introducing their study, Sun et al. (2016) write that “state-of-the-art climate models suffer from large errors in simulating the tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO variability,” which problems, they say, “have existed for almost two decades”

    “…many problems remain regarding the simulation of ENSO asymmetry in climate models.”

    No surprise there.

  63. oldbrew says:

    Small Asteroid Is Earth’s Constant Companion

    A small asteroid has been discovered in an orbit around the sun that keeps it as a constant companion of Earth, and it will remain so for centuries to come.

    As it orbits the sun, this new asteroid, designated 2016 HO3, appears to circle around Earth as well. It is too distant to be considered a true satellite of our planet, but it is the best and most stable example to date of a near-Earth companion, or “quasi-satellite.”

    (animated version on Wikipedia)

  64. oldbrew says:

    ‘exercising free speech to question government officials who threaten free speech is a threat to free speech.’

    Climate cranks posing as US legal officials running wild again.

  65. erl happ says:

    @ Paul Vaughan. Thanks, its useful to know that the multidecadal meridional wind relates to the Specific Carbohydrate Diet. I’ll have to start paying attention to what I eat.

    :@ pg Sharrow. Electro Magnetic Fields in motion. All connected. It has to be or else the whole show simply wont hang together and behave in a predictable fashion. We do expect to see the sun rise in the morning, a great comfort and a source of fascination to mankind since the dawn of time.

    According to Wikipedia fluctuation in length of day is attributed to interactions between the dynamic atmosphere and Earth itself. That is implausible if one considers the difference in mass between the solid Earth and its atmosphere.

    I imagine that something external is required to generate super-rotation of the atmosphere at the poles, the the degree of rotation increasing with latitude and altitude, especially in the winter hemisphere where the atmosphere is .supercharged with the diamagnetic ozone and ionization is enhanced due to cosmic rays..

  66. p.g.sharrow says:

    @erl happ; A SWAG out of my head indicates the total atmospheric mass equals 1inch of dirt or 3/4 inch of rock or 3inches of water. Kind of tiny when measured against the mass of 8,000 miles of planet that is mostly ferrous metal.

    When applying force to mass, the acceleration rate would be faster for the lighter mass material. Your point that acceleration from outside factors would first be seen in the atmosphere is valid. The argument that the atmosphere could cause changes in LOD is a bit hard to believe…pg

  67. Paul Vaughan says:

    Glaciers come from the atmosphere.

  68. oldbrew says:

    German cabinet puts brakes on clean energy transition

    The German government has agreed on a new reform of electricity markets. It’s likely to slow down the transition to a clean energy future, removing wind from the sails of the German Energiewende. Critics are appalled.

    Voter pressure?

  69. p.g.sharrow says:

    Paul Vaughan says:”Glaciers come from the atmosphere.”😎 So Right!
    I once lived in Prince William Sound,Alaska where Glaciers are everywhere and have watched them being created by 3 to 6 feet of snow fall per night! up to 100 feet a year of snow a year tends to build up even though the average temperatures were not much below freezing.

    When moist sea air meets cold air snow happens. The permanent snow line is where the average atmospheric temperature / energy level is below freezing. Glaciers grow from snow deposits created in that area.

    It strikes me that Atmospheric Density is the key to the elevation of the permanent snow line.

    Stephen Wilde points out to us that Atmospheric Density is the determining factor to the Local average temperature / energy level. The solar wind / radiation strips thousands of tons of atmospheric gases from our planet every day. Oceanic stripping washes gases from the atmosphere as well, that then combine with salts to be deposited on the ocean floor. Gases that must be replenished to maintain average surface temperature / energy densities.

    Solar radiations on the land, heat it and the air that contacts it, but radiations into the sea leaves it as water vapor. The Solar Science people insist that there is very little change in solar radiation over very extended time. So why does it get colder and we slip back into Ice Age condition?

    Average Surface Density of the Atmosphere is the only thing that I can see That changes over the Eons.

    AS we are witnessing volcanic activity changes over time. At times very quiet, at times very active. This would be the key to changes that tip the balance of temperature / energy and Glacial snow line. Atmospheric Density Altitude…pg

  70. Paul Vaughan says:

    pg write “The Solar Science people”

    [ :

    Let me finish that thought for you:

    ARE FULL OF SH*T political activists (infiltrating corruptly on a mission perceived to warrant bold, extreme lies)

    “Apart from all other reasons, the parameters of the geoid depend on the distribution of water over the planetary surface.” — Sidorenkov (2003)

    I have game-changing insights forthcoming (volcanoes, solar wind, chandler wobble, GEOMETRY, ASYMMETRY — (never mind CORRUPT TIME-ONLY BS!)

    The mainstream solar & volcano narratives are TOTAL BS — as in ABSOLUTE TOTAL BS. Totally ignorant of geometry. I think it’s deliberate deception.

  71. Poly says:

    Paul, we eagerly await your insights. Will it cover earthquakes as well?
    There is a huge black swan economic risk sitting in high economic value potential earthquake zones (USA west coast, Japan) – enough to trigger a global economic crisis.
    Any predictive foresight would be very valuable for a humanitarian and economic advantage.

  72. Poly says:

    Congratulations to Jo Nova on establishing a skeptic hedge fund.

    I have always believed there were trading opportunities in the stupid economic distortions caused by green left policies. Add the potential of greater-than-expected cooling and the opportunities are amplified!

    Commenteer Jaymez at Jo Nova says it better than me;. . .
    “For me, all I see in the divest movement and tax payer subsidies is a great opportunity for contrarians, that is climate skeptics. This house of cards that the climate alarmists have created has to collapse at some stage. We are actually seeing the start of it now. Governments are crab walking away from feed in tariff commitments and renewable build programmes, they are simply too expensive. See also here, here, and here.

    We have also seen countries who were at the forefront of the Kyoto Protocol fail to re-sign and in many cases are increasing their use of fossil fuels including Germany, Japan, South Korea.

    Other countries will follow when the economic realities of fossil fuels vs renewables starts to bite and when more and more of the population realises they have been had by the climate scares. We also know that there is no way developing countries will be denied access to cheap fossil fuels including coal, oil and gas. China, India, South East Asia, South American and African countries will all contribute to a rising demand for fossil fuels.

    All this tells me that there has to be an opportunity for a hedge fund to take advantage of the current artificial market conditions. “

  73. oldbrew says:

    Roy Spencer quotes the Washington Times:
    ‘If Skeptics can be Prosecuted for Fraud, So can Alarmists’

  74. Paul Vaughan says:

    Correction to June 15, 2016 at 11:47 pm

    “Halstatt, D-O, & de Vries from annual aliasing of volatility structure of JEV, J-S, & U-N”

    should read

    Halstatt, D-O, & de Vries from annual aliasing of volatility structure of (φ/Φ)/(J+S), J-S, & U-N


    (22.13847667)*(19.86503587) / (22.13847667 – 19.86503587) = 193.4431862 sidereal years = 193.4506932 tropical years

    This is going to come up when discussion of CW goes deeper over the next 2 years. For now a general notion is introduced to foreshadow:

    Nodal slip cycle:
    (6.409527865)*(6.204456322) / (6.409527865 – 6.204456322) = 193.92079 tropical years
    where (18.61336897) / 3 = 6.204456322 = lunar nodal cycle harmonic nearest polar motion envelope

    Where does this come up?
    In polar motion angular velocity and its rates of change (difficult to concisely explain — just introducing the confounding side-by-side now to help grease the path towards corrected thinking…)

    Anyone working ahead independently:
    In order to derive the connection between CW amplitude and FRI (Fire Ring Index) take note of what happens if you shift the Atlantic earthspots (centers of volcanism) by 180 degrees of longitude (to be continued…) You can get the coordinates out of the Smithsonian database.

    Take note:
    (193.92079) / 2 = 96.96039499
    (193.4431862) / 2 = 96.72159311
    (193.4506932) / 2 = 96.72534659

    Remember that SEV & JEV (9-11) vary at twice this rate:

    (11.06964992)*(9.007246722) / (11.06964992 – 9.007246722) = 48.34508981
    (11.06964992)*(9.932517933) / (11.06964992 – 9.932517933) = 96.69017963

    (29.447498)*(11.862615) / (29.447498 – 11.862615) = 19.86503587
    (19.86503587) / 2 = 9.932517933

    This is a basis for understanding the difference between the interdecadal (IPO) component of ERSSTv3b2 EOF2 (ENSO) and the centennial component EOF3.

    I will soon introduce a line of geometric diagnostics based on polar volcanic-sulfate deposition asymmetry (in ice cores). For now I will say this: Conventional thinking on volcano-climate coupling is COMPLETELY wrong. This cannot be sufficiently underscored.

    Glaciers fall from the sky…

    “Apart from all other reasons, the parameters of the geoid depend on the distribution of water over the planetary surface.” — Sidorenkov (2003)

  75. Paul Vaughan says:

    pg wrote:
    “I once lived in Prince William Sound,Alaska where Glaciers are everywhere and have watched them being created by 3 to 6 feet of snow fall per night! up to 100 feet a year of snow a year tends to build up even though the average temperatures were not much below freezing.”

    For several years I worked part-time as a mountain guide and in one gig I had the pleasure of setting snowshoe trails through subalpine meadows in a provincial park in BC’s Coast Mountains. I recall one particular interval of extremely heavy, wet snowfall lasting a few weeks during which the 2 meter bamboo poles (route markers) had to be reset daily (to avoid losing them to burial).

    I also recall a 3 week interval of nearly non-stop heavy, wet snowfall another year when I had to dig my car out (from burial) several times in row. I rolled with it, enjoying snowshoeing outings down the mountain for supplies. I even resorted to snowshoeing down the mountain to go sea-kayaking (rather than driving).

    You’re right: It doesn’t have to be cold. Only a few degrees below freezing is the context of all that heavy, wet coastal snowfall. Snow-shoeing on meters of snow and sea-kayaking in unfrozen coastal water (just a few hundred meters lower in elevation) are side-by-side norms.

    The sky is a firehose icing the continents.

    …reshaping stress on the crust, mantle flow, earthspot activity, and the parameters of the geoid.

  76. oldbrew says:

    Polar bear experts ignore official good news so a blogger has to do their job for them.
    Priority is only given to alarmist news it seems.

  77. oldbrew says:

    Heliospheric plasma sheet inflation as a cause of solar wind anomaly during the solar cycle 23-24 minimum

    ‘The inflation of HCS/HPS hypothesizes that HCS/HPS is thicker if Sun’s polar magnetic field is weaker and thinner if Sun’s polar magnetic field is stronger.’ [heliosphere current/plasma sheet (HCS/HPS)]

  78. oldbrew says:

    The Alarmists’ Attempt to Vilify Carbon Dioxide

    ‘What we need to fear is not gradual warming but descent into a new ice age, which is historically about due, and would bring huge suffering for humans and most other living things. So we should welcome gradual warming and fear large decreases in global temperatures. But the environmental movement and their political sympathizers instead want to spend even more resources on a hopeless and pointless effort to decrease human-caused CO2 emissions. So they have gotten just about everything wrong scientifically, and are now trying to use government law enforcement authority to prosecute those who do not agree with their ridiculous “science.” ‘

  79. oldbrew says:

    Frederick Colbourne: Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies: 1851-1980

    From the author’s comments:
    ‘Since no warming was observed between 1940 and 1980 and since little or no warming has been observed since about 1995 (apart from El Ninos), the 15-year period from about 1980 to 1995 is our strongest, and perhaps only, evidence for an irreversible change in climate.

    But if the warming from 1980 to 1995 was related to the warm phase of the AMO, then we can expect, first a peaking in the cycle lasting until about 2010, and then a gradual downturn in the AMO, which may have already occurred but has been masked by El Nino events.’

  80. oldbrew says:

    Inventor creates incredible 100 mile to the gallon engine using 200-year-old Stirling technology

    Mr MacDowell’s concept has received scientific backing by researchers at Texas A&M University.
    Dr Mirley Balasubramanya, a mathematical physicist at Texas A&M University, said: ‘This is a wonderful idea, why didn’t someone else think of this?’
    Well, there was this:

  81. Geoff Sharp says:

    There are 4 papers published recently that challenge the Svalgaard/Clette revision of the International Sunspot Record and Group Sunspot Number. This topic will probably not see the light of day at WUWT?

  82. oldbrew says:

    Some US attorney generals think their role includes enforcing some kind of ‘political correctness’ on climate issues. Don’t agree – get threatened with being hauled into court or at least harassed by demands for information.

  83. oldbrew says:

    ‘The UK has paid out nearly £30m ($44m) in support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects since 2011 while producing no results, a report in The Guardian newspaper found.’

    ‘The UK’s handling of CCS is currently under investigation by the National Audit Office.’

  84. oldbrew says:

    PV said (May 22, Suggestions 18):
    beats with annual:
    (1)*(0.972452186) / (1 – 0.972452186) = 35.30052067 (Sidorenkov “35.3”)

    Another way of expressing that:
    353 tropical years = 363 tidal years (where 1 tidal year = 13 lunar tropical months)
    353 / (363 – 353) = 35.3 tropical years

  85. Paul Vaughan says:

    Hidden behind polar motion’s shiny Markowitz Wobble there’s a bidecadal wobble coherent with interannual AO (Arctic Oscillation) = NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) frequency shift.

    I started exploring this in maybe 2009 but put it down to focus on other things. I’m looking at it again now in clear connection with ERSSTv3b2 EOF3 centennial interhemispheric volcanism.

    It’s clear signal.

    Someone with time, resources, and freedom could do the analysis and write a landmark paper in a week. JPL must know about the coherence. An amateur could isolate it in 1 sitting.

    I left this on the shelf for 6.4 years. Without time, resources, and freedom to develop tools, the exploratory pace is a minute fraction of potential. Will we be ready in time? Creative freedom obstacles may be civilization’s number 1 survival threat.

    Conjecture: QBO propagated deeper into the troposphere and touched the surface during the decades of CW (Chandler Wobble) phase reversal.

    That suggestion’s from the same analysis. There may never be opportunity to finish building the prototyped quantitative volatility exploration tools to formal standards.

    There’s another level of periodicity structure inside the bidecadal volatility structure too. Deepening hierarchical exploration is readily feasible.

    I can at least write these notes. Conventional vision fails by volatility structure blindness.

    This all ties in with Jason Box’s Greenland exploration. A lot of controversy (e.g. Mann vs. Wyatt) has arisen from lack of awareness that there are 2 orthogonal modes underlying Greenland variability. Ignorance of the difference between ERSSTv3b2 EOFs 3 & 4 is the norm.

    I advise that people consciously cut the brainwashing from their multidecadal-centennial North Atlantic thinking. AMO and winter NAO aren’t the same thing.

    What could better symbolize ERSSTv3b2 EOF3 than AC/DC’s “TNT”?

    Sung by the sun-struck choir of stratospheric volcanoes on the rim of Earth’s wobbling Ring of Fire:
    “TNT I’m dynamite I’ll win the fight I’m a power load watch me explode”

    Asymmetric bite. When time permits I’ll start illustrating.

  86. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, maybe Sidorenkov will propose renaming Markowitz Wobble Markowitz Wander (polar wobble vs. polar wander — they’re not the same thing). Similarly the 18.6 year envelope in LOD only represents stationary lunisolar structure. Without the sun strumming, the lunisolar strings would just be siting there. The orthogonality of EOFs 4 & 3 is (to first order, which is the domineering solar lioness’s share in this case) that of LOD & polar motion. The climate modelers aren’t serious …at all.

  87. Paul Vaughan says:

    Bill Illis
    June 21, 2016 at 10:42 am

    I’m starting to think a La Nina is less likely (although temperatures will continue heading downward for at least 3 months).

    There was a lot of warm water left over from the El Nino in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the cooler water building in from the developing La Nina was more-or-less neutralized by it.

    There isn’t enough cold water in the under-current to provide for a La Nina in 2016 any longer.

  88. oldbrew says:

    PV: re ‘the 18.6 year envelope in LOD only represents stationary lunisolar structure.’

    7 lunar nodal cycles = Phi^4 Metonic cycles

  89. oldbrew says:

    Friends of Science Report “Why Renewable Energy Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050” Will Shock Green Investors and Challenges the Grantham Climate Change Risk Scenario

    Includes link to pdf: Why Renewable Energy Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels by 2050 by Robert Lyman, energy economist

  90. oldbrew says:

    New Panama Canal locks due to open in a few days time.

  91. oldbrew says:

    Models Miss Another Factor Impacting Climate

    ‘…researchers at the Australian National University Research School of Earth Sciences measured trace elements and stable isotopes in stalagmites from the Indonesian island of Flores, comparing ancient rainfall patterns to records from East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. They found alternating multi-century-long El Niño/La Niña-like patterns have affected global climate for at least the past 2,000 years. Climate models do not reproduce those patterns.

    Note these are not the familiar El Niño/La Niña patterns that occur off the coasts of North and South America in the Eastern Pacific (which are also not reproduced in climate models) but rather periodic, repeated ocean oscillations in the tropical, South Central and Western portion of the Pacific.’

    Which leaves the obvious question: what are the causes of such oscillations?

  92. oldbrew says:

    This unusual circumbinary exoplanet looks interesting (one planet orbiting two stars).

    ‘The spectroscopically-measured rotational velocities (Section 3.1) are Vrot,A siniA = 8.4±0.5
    km/s and Vrot,B siniB = 5.1 ± 1.0 km/s respectively
    – assuming 5.5 km/s macroturbulence for the
    primary star (Doyle et al. 2014), and 3.98 km/s macroturbulence for Solar-type stars (Gray 1984)
    as appropriate for the secondary. Given the uncertainty on both the measurements and the assumed
    macroturbulence, the measured rotational velocities are not inconsistent with synchronization.’

    Ratio of rotational velocities of the binary stars (A and B) is close to 1:Phi (e.g. 8.4:5.2 would do it, = 21/13).

  93. oldbrew says:

    More phoney Arctic ice scares from the usual barmy suspects…

    ‘Climate Scientists Could Become Veracity-Free This Summer’

  94. Paul Vaughan says:

    postimg degraded the image, but here it is:

  95. Paul Vaughan says:

    I realize people are going to struggle to see this in context. I suggest at least trying to absorb some of the pieces. Holistic awareness will dawn later if it hasn’t yet.

    A few things to note to get started here:

    Southern Ocean SST is high when there’s explosive volcanism resulting in Antarctic sulfate deposition.

    The aerosol release element of the conventional mainstream narrative appears to make sense FOR THE NORTH, but not exactly: It only works when corrected by the 96 year astronomical cycle to arrive at solar cycle deceleration (SCD). Again (as I’ve been repeating): There are 2 orthogonal modes.

    Southern observations are advising mainstream modelers that they have the sign of the spatiotemporal coupling exactly backwards there. This is not a problem for regular climate scientists I very strongly suggest. It demands a broader geophysical holism.

    Finally, for now just take note of part of what happens when you put de Vries and the long lunisolar apse-node cycle together:

    (208)*(179) / (208 + 179) ~= 96
    (179)*(104) / (179 + 104) ~= 66

    Let’s see if we can get some lights coming on slowly. I think people will confuse the contrast of SCD and sunspot integral with the contrast of 96 and SCD initially, but these are 2 different components of north-south asymmetry.

    The first thing people should focus on is remaining philosophically vigilant:

    The 2 differ FUNDAMENTALLY.

    That’s step 1.

    Stay aware that before the Panama Canal opened, 96 & SCD were in phase. After: anti-phased. (Remember I’ve indicated that I’m using that event as a placeholder…. to be continued…)

    A blend is not a contrast.


    A blend is not a contrast…
    A blend is not a contrast…
    A blend is not a contrast…

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    Let’s keep in mind while brainstorming this that 208 RESULTS FROM WHAT’S OBSERVED multidecadally & centennially.

    I haven’t been careful with tropical versus sidereal years in what follows (subsequent-round refinement on-deck) to grease the gears of contemplation:

    A_______________	B_______________	A*B/|A-B|_______	A*B/|A+B|_______	harmean(A,B)____
    96.1633937499286	179.337158299198	207.345066812544	62.59758697	125.195173942474
    96.6901796261645	179.337158299198	209.809751402965	62.82037924	125.640758483742
    96.7215931058893	179.337158299198	209.957719386109	62.833638	125.667276009145
    96.1633937499286	207.345066812544	179.337158299198	65.69505596	131.390111926687
    96.6901796261645	209.809751402965	179.337158299198	66.18775568	132.375511357264
    96.7215931058893	209.957719386109	179.337158299198	66.21719913	132.434398257193
    96.1633937499286	65.6950559633437	207.345066812544	39.03076759	78.0615351897639
    96.6901796261645	66.1877556786321	209.809751402965	39.29142381	78.5828476232061
    96.7215931058893	66.2171991285964	209.957719386109	39.30698702	78.6139740315593
    65.6950559633437	179.337158299198	103.672533406272	48.08169687	96.1633937499286
    66.1877556786321	179.337158299198	104.904875701483	48.34508981	96.6901796261645
    66.2171991285964	179.337158299198	104.978859693054	48.36079655	96.7215931058893
    65.6950559633437	207.345066812544	96.1633937499286	49.88843995	99.7768798921463
    66.1877556786321	209.809751402965	96.6901796261645	50.3150797	100.630159393059
    66.2171991285964	209.957719386109	96.7215931058893	50.34060366	100.681207315614


    Which 96 makes more sense?

    •The one based on semi-annual-QBO-annual? (96.16339375) — the one a conventional mainstreamer might accept — remember I outlined the logic graphically above for Ed
    •The one based on J, S, & φ/Φ? (96.72159311)
    •Or the one based on J & S alone? (96.69017963) — this is the one suggested by BDO (bidecadal oscillation) — remember there are several ways (as I’ve outlined) to derive this one exactly

    Maybe they can all be reconciled?


    Any which way we look at it, the root of the CW phase reversal is nailed at aggregate level:

    2 patterns of interhemispheric contrast (affecting polar glacial mass balance) flipped from together to opposed.

    The straight-line discontinuity at 60°S in corrupted ERSSTv4 (not to be confused with uncorrupted v3b2) is telling.

    If anyone’s looking for the volcanic sulfate aerosol deposition data, I can dig out links and related info. There’s an order of magnitude error in some of their estimates and they have the coupling sign (and more generally the whole conceptualization) wrong.

    Something extremely serious about the regional effect of the volcanic sulfates on SOUTHERN cloud and precipitation pattern is being overlooked and the people modeling this stuff don’t seem to take subcrustal clues.

  97. Paul Vaughan says:

    Trying to say too much too fast…
    I wrote:

    “2 patterns of interhemispheric contrast (affecting polar glacial mass balance) flipped from together to opposed.”

    What flipped from together to opposed: the blend & the contrast.

    Keep in mind that these (North Atlantic & Southern) are the oceans bordering polar ice. Their average state being in-phase with their contrast is different geometrically from their average state being anti-phased with their contrast. Everything flips over geometrically. It’s so simple!!

  98. Ian Wilson says:

    The long luni-solar apse-node cycle is 177 years not 179 years. How do you get the 179 year value? Just interested.

  99. oldbrew says:

    Report: ‘California’s San Andreas Fault is definitely moving. Could an earthquake be next?’

    ‘Records show that Southern California gets hit by a large earthquake every century or so. The last major seismic activity in the region was a 7.9 magnitude earthquake in 1857, which hit Fort Tejon and could be felt as far away as Las Vegas, 300 miles away.’

  100. Paul Vaughan says:

    I should clarify in case people misinterpret (I’m confident many will):

    Poleward coastal winter clouds and precipitation mean warmer because of tropical infusion. Without that it’s clear and cold.

    Lots of commentators think so incredibly wrong on clouds. They think of the cloud blocking out sunlight. That’s summer. In winter it’s the opposite and the difference it makes is bigger.

    Glaciers fall from the sky at temperatures just below freezing.
    When it’s way colder it’s clear.

    Temperature-precipitation relations aren’t the straight line many people STUPIDLY imagine. It has to be called out because it’s that stupid and suspiciously it’s also persistent (despite being ridiculously stupid) in climate discussion.

    Ian, please provide the periods you use for tropical year, lunar synodic month, lunar draconic month, and lunar anomalistic month so I can report on assumption sensitivity from your perspective …and then if necessary also remind any new readers that event series (which can’t be used in slip cycle calculations) differ conceptually from slip cycles. There’s plenty more to illustrate and say about what I’ve started illustrating above, but it may be nearly a week before I’ll have opportunity.

  101. Paul Vaughan says:

    The wet tropical cloud and rain at high latitudes LETS IN sunlight. It’s bottled sunlight. Bottled tropically for poleward export. Get the sign of your winter cloud math right folks. Please!

  102. Paul Vaughan says:

    (365.242189)*(29.530589) / (365.242189 + 29.530589) = 27.32158236 days = lunar tropical month

    (27.32158236)*(27.212221) / (27.32158236 – 27.212221) = 6798.387626 days
    (6798.387626) / 365.242189 = 18.61336897 tropical years = lunar nodal cycle = LNC

    (27.55455)*(27.32158236) / (27.55455 – 27.32158236) = 3231.495658
    (3231.495658) / 365.242189 = 8.847542139 tropical years = lunar apse cycle = LAC


    harmonic of LNC nearest LAC:
    (18.61336897) / 2 = 9.306684483

    (9.306684483)*(8.847542139) / (9.306684483 – 8.847542139) = 179.3371583 tropical years = 179.330199 sidereal years

    Ian, please indicate if you are using different values for the lunar month lengths and also whether you are differentiating conceptually between event series and slip cycles. Thank you.

  103. Paul Vaughan says:

    Brainstorming note:

    I’m not suggesting LAC & LNC have a role. I’m putting them up as exploratory placeholders.

    What we do see in observations is that solar cycle deceleration (something like 66 years but not fixed and not sinusoidal but we can explore ballpark aggregates to brainstorm) and the sunspot integral (with de Vries period) aggregate to something like 96 and we observe 96.

    This polar volcanic deposition asymmetry is independent of neither Chandler Wobble amplitude nor solar activity so we have a very interesting puzzle here.

    I’m getting the impression that people underestimate how much more there is to illustrate and say about ERSSTv3b2 EOFs 1,2,3,&4 in relation to Earth Orientation Parameters (including polar motion and length of day).

    What I’m pointing out about the coherence of polar volcanic sulfate deposition asymmetry, core angular momentum, ENSO volatility, and sea surface temperature asymmetries is actually something quite profound and beautiful, as is what I’ve shown about ice export and SSTs in a subset of the North Atlantic off Greenland. I suggest reviewing the EOF maps on the last page of ERSST EOF1234 as a refresher. It’s going to be a lot of tedious work if folks actually need further clarification. And I don’t think all that effort will cure ignorance. What to do about this perception problem I do not know. Can I at least ask sensible people to make the effort? Please try to stay engaged folks. This is important.

  104. oldbrew says:

    You can also get 96 from 16 lunar wobble periods (~5.997 TY each) or 81 Chandler wobbles.
    16 = 2^4
    81 = 3^4

    The lunar wobble is the axial period of LNC and LAC (see PV’s comment above).
    This was explained by de Rop.

    See fig.3 in the linked paper (p.262)

    de Rop says:
    ‘…only once in about 1 800 years the line of nodes
    and the line of apsides (the Moon in its perigee)
    coincides with the major axis of the Earth’s
    orbit and the position of the Earth in the
    perihelion. In case of this double coincidence,
    the tidal forces exerted by Sun and Moon will
    reach an absolute maximum.’

    ‘Other less intensive maxima are superposed
    on the period of 1800 years. They are caused
    by a coincidence of the line of nodes and the
    line perihelion-Sun as well as a coincidence of
    the line of apsides and the line perihelion-Sun.’

  105. oldbrew says:

    What’s Causing Mysterious ‘Worldwide Hum?’
    by Glen MacPherson, Lecturer, University of British Columbia

  106. Paul Vaughan says:

    Polar volcanic sulfate deposition asymmetry, core angular momentum (CAM), ENSO volatility, Southern Ocean – North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) asymmetries, ERSSTv3b2 EOF2&3, and solar cycle deceleration (SCD):

    The North Atlantic has _2_ modes of variability (multidecadal & centennial). (It’s not just AMO.)

    Reminder from earlier in this line of exploration:

    ERSSTv3b2 EOFs1-4 Context:

  107. oldbrew says:

    NASA’s Juno set to meet up with Jupiter on July 4th

    ‘If all goes as planned, Juno will spend nearly a year circling Jupiter’s poles and peering through clouds to scrutinize the planet’s southern and northern lights, which are considered the strongest in the solar system.’

  108. Poly says:

    So Paul, if I read your cycles correctly, we are due for a dose of N.Hemisphere volcanism.
    Probably one of those Iceland mega-volcanos.
    This can cause Euro flight disruption, alarm and accelerated cooling.
    When added to the current volatile N.Hemisphere politico-cultural environment (Brexit, Trump, NATO-Soviet posturing, Syria, Euro-economic-refugee crisis, China hard landing) this could lead to one of those tipping points you have postulated.
    Let us hope not.

  109. Paul Vaughan says:

    Poly, from a quick inspection of the polar volcanic sulfate deposition record a newcomer might conclude (without more detailed analysis) that northern activity is relatively more constant and 3 times more common than southern.

    I’ve done some preliminaries. There’s scope for much, much deeper analysis.


    For anyone who wants to cut right to what matters, this should help:

    Water mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning

    Wind-blown Antarctic sea ice helps drive ocean circulation (June 27, 2016)

    “Antarctic sea ice is constantly on the move as powerful winds blow it away from the coast and out toward the open ocean. A new study shows how that ice migration may be more important for the global ocean circulation than anyone realized.”

    “The scientists found that freshwater played the most powerful role in changing water density, which drives circulation, and that melting of wind-blown sea ice contributed 10 times more freshwater than melting of land-based glaciers did.”

    “A vital contributor to the process, the scientists discovered, was the seasonal migration of the ice, which is largely driven by winds. If the sea ice were instead forming and melting in the same place, there would be no net effect.

    And people don’t get the Fram Strait Ice Export & Western Nordic Seas Winter Sea Ice Extent relation to SCL (solar cycle length). No respect for meridional wind (for some political reasons).

    So from the equator we have a poleward precipitable water volatility cycle (not to be confused with a cycle in the mean — seasonal poleward hydrology aliasing is nonlinear due to latent heat, so it’s the poleward (seasonal) sampling of the tropical volatility that’s aliased into the long-run centennial aggregate)…

    …and from the poles we have windblown freshwater (SEA ICE) export.

    Poly, everything’s tied together. May domineering nature inspire stability in the minds of those with access to red buttons. With sufficiently lucid awareness (the human dimension of) the tipping point can be smoothed — as in smoothed into a naturally smooth transition. For example in the current context I hope and pray the EU will stop remaining in denial that it’s pursuing extremely laudable goals with dangerously corrupt means. I think if EU can be persuaded (if NATO decides to be practical) to drop climate deception from its agenda, trust could conceivably be restored and this could help save a lot of important global stability gains. End poverty, ensure clean air & water, and preserve parks for outdoor recreation without thinking it’s necessary to lie about climate to do that kind of thing.

    Is everyone starting to appreciate and understand meridional wind? (Let’s pray and hope so.)

  110. Paul Vaughan says:

    This may be a good opportunity for a timely reminder.

    Remember that although both stress a meridional gradient, the spatial pattern of the centennial wave of ERSSTv3b2 EOF2&3 is a little different from that of multidecadal EOF4:

    Note that EOF4 takes a bite (south of Greenland) out of the North Atlantic correlation pattern illustrated above for “96 index” (which is derived from NASA JPL Horizons).

    Also note that the Southern EOF4 correlation band is at a lower latitude (i.e. more towards the equator from Antarctica).

    So top-down and bottom-up have another meaning.

    It’s overwhelming to think how much more there is to illustrate.
    Pareto Principle to the 2nd or 3rd power by overwhelming necessity.

  111. oldbrew says:

    ‘Record breaking N. American winters not due to climate change’

    ‘A new study finds that human-caused warming in the west tropical Pacific was not responsible for a series of frigid North American winters experienced over the early 2000s.’

    These days you need a study before saying warming hasn’t caused cold winters.

  112. oldbrew says:

    Report: A Southwest Research Institute-led team has discovered an elusive, dark moon orbiting Makemake, one of the “big four” dwarf planets populating the Kuiper Belt region at the edge of our solar system.

    ‘With the discovery of MK2, all four of the currently designated dwarf planets are known to host one or more satellites. The fact that Makemake’s satellite went unseen despite previous searches suggests that other large KBOs may host hidden moons.’

    Read more at:

    Makemake was initially known as 2005 FY9. It was discovered a few days after Easter in March 2005.

  113. oldbrew says:

    Rep. Lamar Smith tries and fails to get any sense out of the EPA on climate policy…

    EPA Will Not Say What the Paris Treaty Would Actually Accomplish

  114. oldbrew says:

    Joe Romm: tower of psychobabble.

    ThinkProgress: Global Warming Caused Brexit

  115. tchannon says:

    oldbrew, What causes the hum?

    If this was sound it would be readily measurable and recordable. Seems unlikely this has not been done so I assume it is not a sound. (not acoustic)

    The linked article says not tinnitus but mis-describes this and that is the most likely explanation.

  116. RJ Salvador says:

    TB and Oldbrew

    Someone may have already done this but when I get more time (maybe tomorrow) I will post a series of graphics on the El Nino Index and Hadcrut4. Below is a three parameter correlation between them.

    [reply] thanks RJ

  117. oldbrew says:

    TC: ‘oldbrew, What causes the hum?’

    Nobody knows, but there’s some info here.

    Apparently ‘there are eight times as many ambidextrous people among hearers as there are in the general population.’ I’m semi-ambidextrous but haven’t had this problem.

    Timestamp[1]: 2/18/2015 16:15:19
    When is the sound the loudest?: At night
    Please describe the sound: Sounds like a lawnmower, getting louder and quieter. Or a low flying plane or helicopter
    Does the sound ever stop? Please tell us about this.: Stops occasionally for about 10-30 seconds, then resumes
    Does the sound ever “pulse” or “throb”?:
    Where is it the loudest?: Equal throughout the house
    Have you tried tracking down the source of the noise?: Little effort
    When did you start hearing it?: 2014
    Can you provide a precise date when you first noticed it? (If “No”, then leave blank): 19th Feb 2015
    In which ear is it the strongest?: equally in both ears
    Please list any unusual geographic, geological, or other features in your area: None
    Which is your dominant hand?: Right
    Your gender: Male
    Please enter your age (just a single number, no words please): 15
    Medical complaints from The Hum (check all that apply):
    Do you have any medical issues with your hearing?: None

  118. oldbrew says:

    I AM HENRY THE EIGHTH I AM. by The Elephant’s Child
    [photo with joke caption re Brexit]

  119. oldbrew says:

    DNA molecules: A DNA molecule measures 34 angstroms by 21 angstroms at each full cycle of the double helix spiral. In the Fibonacci series, 34 and 21 are successive numbers.[= ratio of major to minor]

    By placing two pentagons together and then rotating one of them, you have the shape of the cross section of a DNA double helix.

    Links between pentagons/pentagrams and the golden ratio are well-documented e.g.:

  120. RJ Salvador says:

    TB and Oldbrew:

    The following demonstrates that Metoffice Hadcrut4 is a restatement of the NOAA El Nino index. It’s based on the conjecture that not only do El Nino events have an immediate effect on world temperature but also the clustering of El Nino or La Nina events have a cumulative effect on the worlds temperature. Ian Wilson and Paul Vaughan have provide the frame work to show that El Nino events are governed by the interaction of the Sun and Moon coupled with the hemispherical asymmetry of the Earth’s surface properties. The climate variation is driven by the ratio in strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events.

    El Nino data is available here;

    The Hadcrut4 data is available here :

    The Hadcrut4 data is processed by averaging the eleven temperature series for each month and then taking a rolling 12 month average of the monthly result to give a global smoothed temperature change. The result is shown below;

    The data is fitted to a sixth power polynomial and the numerical value of the polynomial subtracted from Hadcrut4 to get a linear result.

    This linear result is shown in the following two graphics compared to the El Nino index.
    The modern data from 1950 to 2016 show excellent coherence. The Historical data from 1880 to 1949 coherence is good but as the data has less certainty there are discrepancies.

    Based on the conjecture that the climate is driven by the cumulative effects of El Nino and La Nina events the following graphic compares the summation of the El Nino index to Hadcrut4 rotated so that it is reflective around the zero axis of El Nino. The coherence is again good.

    The next step is to generate the Hadcrut4 from the El Nino data by correlating the cumulative El Nino index and The El Nino Index by month to Hadcrut4. The equation to do this is:

    HD4=K1*(Sum of (El Nino index +K3) + K2*El Nino index.

    K1= 0.00430122394
    K2= 0.0488407259
    K3= 0.0528349012

    The zero of the Index is adjusted upwards by K3. This gives the slight warming trend. (The index itself may have been constructed to give a zero sum game.) The graphic is below and is an excellent fit considering the quality of historical data and the simplicity of the equation.

    Predicting El Nino predicts the climate.

    [mod] see:

  121. Paul Vaughan says:

    Over the years I’ve seen recurring variants of the analysis RJ has just presented. I’ve explored this for dozens of ENSO indices, including ones derived from ICOADS wind data.

    RJ wrote:
    “Predicting El Nino predicts the climate.”

    We should take care not to define “climate” as global average temperature.

    An important question:
    Can the equation reproduce the spatial patterns of ERSSTv3b2 EOFs1,2,3,&4?

    A spatial blend differs fundamentally from a spatial contrast. If “climate” is to be culturally defined as a global blend (even worse: of just one variable), we’re in a dream world with no spatial dimension and we’re not admitting E(X+Y) and E(X-Y) are different animals.

    It’s good to see exploration. As with the exploration of David Evans & Jo Nova: Looking forward to seeing some kind of expansion of analyses to include spatial contrasts. Then r^2 will jump from 0.75 to nearly 1.


  122. Paul Vaughan says:

    The phase relationship between EOF23 & EOF4 reverses sign around the time of the opening of the Panama Canal (an event I conveniently use as a placeholder to help people remember).

    Note on RJ’s last graph that this corresponds with where the match breaks down going backwards. This isn’t about data quality. It’s about spatial pattern.

    Overturning circulation is the vortex blender of a contrast coherent with the slip cycle of BDO (bidecadal oscillation) and the solar cycle.

    This is hard to explain. Maybe a map underscoring pole-pole asymmetry will help when time permits.

  123. RJ Salvador says:


    I don’t disagree with you.
    What I did any high school student with a working knowledge of Excel could do.
    The proponents of AGW advertise a simple cause attached to a global temperature change for what is a complex reality.
    This is a simple and far more plausible explanation for that same advertised global temperature change. The analyses you propose, while it should be done, is for many a leap too far in comprehension.


  124. oldbrew says:

    MIT: First signs of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer

    September ozone hole has shrunk by 4 million square kilometers since 2000

    Note: ‘since 2000’ – in conjunction with ‘the pause’ – what a coincidence…

  125. oldbrew says:

    Study: Ocean circulation implicated in past abrupt climate changes

    ‘There was a period during the last ice age when temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere went on a rollercoaster ride, plummeting and then rising again every 1,500 years or so. Those abrupt climate changes wreaked havoc on ecosystems, but their cause has been something of a mystery. New evidence published this week in the leading journal Science shows for the first time that the ocean’s overturning circulation slowed during every one of those temperature plunges – at times almost stopping.’

  126. oldbrew says:


    Climate cranks at DECC in a hurry to try and tie the hands of the next UK government.

  127. oldbrew says:

    ‘The influential trade union presence on the board of EDF are stepping up their opposition to the Hinkley Point C nuclear power project in the UK, following Brexit.’

  128. oldbrew says:

    Thumbs down for man-made climate change claims, from US farmers.

    ‘A survey conducted by Iowa State Professor J. Arbuckle and Purdue University professor Linda Prokopy of 5,000 Cornbelt farmers—representing about 60% of U.S. corn production and 80% of farmland in the region—found that only 8% believed climate change is taking place and caused primarily by human activity.’

  129. oldbrew says:

    ‘For now the cause of powerful oceanic lightning will, apparently, remain a mystery. This latest research might imply increased salinity and large ice crystals in combination with storm physics could be the cause.’

    But ‘while the size of ice crystals might vary as much as 10 percent across the land/sea boundary, the differences in the electric discharge in lightning strokes can vary by 25 to 30 percent.’

  130. Paul Vaughan says:

    2nd time I’ve seen Bill outlining GEOGRAPHIC rationale for 1500 year D-O:

    Bill Illis
    July 3, 2016 at 3:48 am

    I agree that the Gulf Stream was always flowing due to the Corriolis and the winds and the confining continental margins.

    But there is another issue to consider, sea level.

    There would have been times that sea level was too low to allow the Gulf Stream flow path next to Florida. The ocean was not deep enough at times to allow a full Gulf Stream flow. There would also have been choke-points on the western side of Cuba which stopped it.

    A good ocean current like the Gulf Stream needs to have at least 200 metres of ocean depth to flow properly and times when sea level was lower, there was simply not enough ocean depth in these two spots.

    There would have been times in the ice ages, when the Gulf Stream changed course and flowed around the outside of the Caribbean Islands. I don’t know why no one has talked about this before but it clearly had to have happened.

    This disruption and course change probably took decades to establish itself.

    This is a far more logical explanation for Greenland temperature instability in the ice ages. (Although I will note that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions do NOT show the big changes that the Greenland ice core borehole models show.)

  131. oldbrew says:

    BBC report:

    Space agencies are now flying six satellite altimeters, returning large volumes of data on the height and shape of the sea surface – and in rapid time.

    The information is fed into all manner of applications, from forecasting the weather to understanding the migratory habits of marine creatures.

    The main image at the top of this page [see link below] gives a snapshot of the six missions in action as they monitor the North Atlantic.

    Each is seen to fly over the Gulf Stream – the current of warm water that rides up the East Coast of the US and then crosses to Europe.

  132. oldbrew says:

    Why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years: Climate and feedback effects explained
    Date: August 7, 2013 [yes it’s 3 years old]
    Source: ETH Zurich

    Science has struggled to explain fully why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years. As researchers now demonstrate based on a computer simulation, not only do variations in insolation play a key role, but also the mutual influence of glaciated continents and climate.

    Was this covered in any blogs at the time?

  133. oldbrew says:

    Paper: ‘We find that volcanically very active planets might show the largest lightning flash densities.’

    Clouds form on extrasolar planets and brown dwarfs where lightning could occur.
    Lightning is a tracer of atmospheric convection, cloud formation and ionization processes
    as known from the Solar System, and may be significant for the formation of
    prebiotic molecules. We study lightning climatology for the different atmospheric environments
    of Earth, Venus, Jupiter and Saturn. We present lightning distribution
    maps for Earth, Jupiter and Saturn, and flash densities for these planets and Venus,
    based on optical and/or radio measurements from the WWLLN and STARNET radio
    networks, the LIS/OTD satellite instruments, the Galileo, Cassini, New Horizons and
    Venus Express spacecraft. We also present flash densities calculated for several phases
    of two volcano eruptions, Eyjafjallaj¨okull’s (2010) and Mt Redoubt’s (2009). We estimate
    lightning rates for sample, transiting and directly imaged extrasolar planets
    and brown dwarfs. Based on the large variety of exoplanets, six categories are suggested
    for which we use the lightning occurrence information from the Solar System.
    We examine lightning energy distributions for Earth, Jupiter and Saturn. We discuss
    how strong stellar activity may support lightning activity. We provide a lower limit
    of the total number of flashes that might occur on transiting planets during their full
    transit as input for future studies. We find that volcanically very active planets might
    show the largest lightning flash densities. When applying flash densities of the large
    Saturnian storm from 2010/11, we find that the exoplanet HD 189733b would produce
    high lightning occurrence even during its short transit.

  134. oldbrew says:

    PV says: ‘2nd time I’ve seen Bill outlining GEOGRAPHIC rationale for 1500 year D-O’

    Could the J-S-N planetary alignment with Earth every 1470 years affect sea levels in some way?

  135. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew, quoting others:
    Science has struggled to explain fully why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years. As researchers now demonstrate based on a computer simulation, not only do variations in insolation play a key role, but also the mutual influence of glaciated continents and climate.”

    “Insolation plays a key role”. But the more effective way to vary the insolation is by changing the earth’s obliquity.

    Which also means that extrapolating backwards beyond certain dates while ignoring what Dodwell pointed out to, is burying our heads in modern faulty dogma.

    It can be shown time and again that the ancient measurements from ancient techniques were very accurate, and therefore what those measurements infer is very real. Both indicate a changing obliquity.

  136. oldbrew says:

    Peak oilers look away now…

    Study: US Has More Oil Reserves Than Saudis And Russians

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that in 2000 America got roughly 2 percent of its oil, about 102,000 barrels per day, from fracking. America got 51 percent of its oil, about 4.3 million barrels per day, from fracking in 2015.

    The study does not include oil shale, which excludes the fact that America controls the world’s largest untapped oil reserve, the Green River Formation in Colorado. This formation alone contains up to 3 trillion barrels of untapped oil shale, half of which may be recoverable. That’s five and a half times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. This single geologic formation could contain more oil than the rest of the world’s proven reserves combined.

  137. oldmanK says:

    ‘Peak oil’ is no longer a problem; pollution is. The air in some cities leave you ‘gasping’.

    Something don’t smell right. Now the US finds enormous reserves, when the price today is so low its not worth looking for it. Venezuela was in the news today, mainly due to that — its an ugly story.

  138. Sparks says:

    This ‘Green Scandal’ made the news here, More wasted money which could be better spent, one farmer was set to receive £1m for installing a boiler in an empty shed…

  139. oldbrew says:

    UK set to miss 2020 renewables target says National Grid

    It was a crackpot target anyway.

    ‘The National Grid report states that heating is the stumbling block for the UK’s renewable ambitions.’
    Well, that won’t be a problem when ‘winters are a thing of the past’. Don’t hold your breath for that though:/

  140. oldbrew says:

    Sparks: what a farce. All they had to do was mirror the mainland UK scheme.

  141. tchannon says:

    Paul Vaughan says:
    June 30, 2016 at 7:23 pm

    The phase relationship between EOF23 & EOF4 reverses sign around the time of the opening of the Panama Canal (an event I conveniently use as a placeholder to help people remember).”

    A candidate cause is the change in routing of the ships providing marine measurements, via panama instead of around the cape. Different sea areas.

  142. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB asked about Bill Illis commentary on 1500 year D-O:
    “Could the J-S-N planetary alignment with Earth every 1470 years affect sea levels in some way?”

    I’m finding increasing reason to suspect what I outlined above (June 15, 2016 at 11:47 pm).

  143. Bamse says:

    Testing the historic tracking of climate models
    Michael Beenstock, Yaniv Reingewertz, Nathan Paldor
    International Journal of Forecasting
    Volume 32, Issue 4, October–December 2016, Pages 1234–1246

    IPCC and others use in-sample correlations to confirm the ability of climate models to track the global surface temperature (GST) historically. However, a high correlation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for confirmation, because GST is nonstationary. In addition, the tracking errors must also be stationary. Cointegration tests using monthly hindcast data for GST generated by 22 climate change models over the period 1880–2010 are carried out for testing the hypothesis that these hindcasts track GST in the longer run. We show that, although GST and their hindcasts are highly correlated, they unanimously fail to be cointegrated. This means that all 22 models fail to track GST historically in the longer run, because their tracking errors are nonstationary. This juxtaposition of a high correlation and cointegration failure may be explained in terms of the phenomenon of spurious correlation, which occurs when data such as GST embody time trends.

  144. oldbrew says:

    National Grid says UK renewables to fall short

    Can’t be fined by the EU if we’re not members of it any more.

  145. oldbrew says:

    PV wrote: ‘(171.4062162)*(164.79132) / (171.4062162 – 164.79132) = 4270.098235’

    This is the U-N equivalent period to the 61.047~year J-S period (360 degrees retrograde movement of the conjunction).

  146. oldbrew says:

    ‘RWE, Germany’s biggest energy company, is in danger of going belly up. It would be the largest bankruptcy in German economic history.’

    Looks like a combination of German policies has doomed it: dumping nuclear and the mad charge for renewable energy at almost any cost.

    RWE is “a case for an insolvency administrator”

  147. oldbrew says:

    Lubos Motl dishes the dirt on Brexit…

    ‘Now, lots of important countries have already begun their negotiations with the soon-to-be-freed U.K. It’s very clear why they want such deals. Now, why isn’t the European Union doing the same thing as the U.S. or Australia on our behalf? Well, it’s simply because the EU is full of politically incompetent, malicious, ideologically motivated or brainwashed, unelected, unaccountable, and in Juncker’s case almost permanently drunk aßholes who don’t give a damn about the good condition of the European economies and the well-being of the citizens of EU member states.’

    ‘Why don’t you just accept the new reality, pro-EU losers, and the reality involves the looming independence of the U.K. from your arrogant power and from your idiotic regulations and propaganda?’

    Good stuff🙂

  148. J Martin says:

    The genius of the brexit battle bus eluded me at first. By painting an innacurate slogan on the bus about money, the brexiteers diverted half the resources of the remain campaign into protesting this innacuracy. The other half of the remain campaign resources were busy peddling economic disaster. But the swing voters in the referendum were not influenced by either issue. Which meant that the remain campaign had tied up all its resources in fighting a mirage, well two of them. Thus leaving the field entirely clear for the leave campaign to address the concerns of the swing voters who would determine the outcome of the referendum. Genius.

  149. oldbrew says:

    Charging for charging: UK EV drivers to lose free power privileges

    ‘UK electric vehicle drivers are set to lose their free access to charging points provided by Ecotricity. The green energy supplier, which says its Electric Highway car charging network is the most comprehensive in both the UK and Europe, has announced that 20-minute rapid charging will now cost £5’

    How many miles is that for £5? Not many.

  150. oldbrew says:

    Baillie and McAneney on the Bronze Age Cosmic Collapse

    Why we shouldn’t ignore the mid-24th century BC when discussing the 2200-2000 BC climate anomaly

    Much evidence exists for the major climate anomaly c2200-2000 BC. In this paper, we demonstrate that precisely dated Irish bog oaks record this climatic event, which appears to begin abruptly in 2206 BC and last until around 1900 BC. However, it might be unwise to ignore the precisely dated, abrupt environmental downturn that occurs some 150 years earlier. Irish and English oak tree rings draw attention to a notable decade-long growth downturn spanning 2354 BC to 2345 BC with hints of inundation. Interest in this apparently localized inundation led to the discovery that traditions from around the world specify dated stories within 10 years of 2350 BC. These stories involve the Chinese emperor Yao (traditional date 2357 BC), who presided over a series of catastrophes, including floods, in 2346 BC; Archbishop Ussher who used the dates 2349-2348 BC for the biblical Flood; and the ‘birth’ of three Mayan deities, GI, GII and GIII in the year 2360 BC. Why, one might ask, should people around the northern hemisphere have generated stories that appear to hark back to a two decade window between 2360 BC and 2340 BC? Furthermore, a smoothed growth response for North European trees suggests the existence of a 37 year cycle of reduced growth, hinting that the events around 2350 BC and 2200-2000 BC may be related. One possible scenario to account for these various observations is that something happened in the sky around this time with memorable consequences for those on the ground; a scenario highly compatible with controversial evidence for an anomalous dust deposition event observed at Tell Leilan in Syria. Overall, this unusual accumulation of evidence, including similarities in stories from widely separated areas, suggests that the scenario be treated seriously as a basis for further research.

    See also: Dodwell’s study
    Moe M. Mandelkehr
    An Integrated Model for an Earthwide Event at 2300 BC

    From Mandelkehr:

  151. oldbrew says:

    Goldman Sachs hires former EU chief Barroso

    ‘Goldman Sachs International, which Barroso will chair, is headquartered in London and of its roughly 6,000 staff fewer than 1,000 are based outside Britain.’

    Streets of London paved with Gold…man Sachs executives😉

  152. oldmanK says:

    @oldbrew: you touch my subject again in the post “Baillie and McAneney on the Bronze Age Cosmic Collapse”. The date of the paper is quite recent. It centres about the 2345bce event.

    A cursory look at it did not turn up any mention of Dodwell. Yet his hypothesis finds good support in evidence in an ancient calendar originating from just after 3195, mathematically designed and now proven extremely accurate, which evidence is hard to refute.

    But there is something else. the 2345bce event was the last in a series of cataclysmic events, equally evident in the tree rings, which, important, point to a non cosmic trigger, but one that is intrinsic to planet earth. Weather patterns after 2345bce may have been eventful but before they were much worse.

  153. oldbrew says:

    Weathering of rocks by mosses may explain climate effects during the Late Ordovician

    ‘During the Ordovician period, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere was about eight times higher than today. It has been hard to explain why the climate cooled and why the Ordovician glaciations took place. A new study shows that the weathering of rock caused by early non-vascular plants had the potential to cause such a global cooling effect.’

    Sounds a bit iffy? Some say the climate cooled due to large-scale volcanic activity, which could also explain high CO2 levels. But if CO2 is supposed to cause warming, something doesn’t add up.

  154. oldbrew says:

    German Energy Policy Sticks It to the Poor and Small Businesses
    Alan Carlin | July 8, 2016

  155. oldbrew says:

    Biggest explosion in documented history is STILL a mystery: New study fails to find cause of 1908 Tunguska blast that ‘split the sky in two’ and flattened 80 million Siberian trees

    Read more:

    BBC: In Siberia in 1908 a huge explosion came out of nowhere

    On 30 June 1908, an explosion ripped through the air above a remote forest in Siberia, near the Podkamennaya Tunguska river.

    The fireball is believed to have been 50-100m wide. It depleted 2,000 sq km of the taiga forest in the area, flattening about 80 million trees.

    The earth trembled. Windows smashed in the nearest town over 35 miles (60km) away. Residents there even felt heat from the blast, and some were blown off their feet.

  156. oldbrew says:


    Researchers say the start of the universe may have sprung as it transitioned from a previously contracting state.

    They suggest that all particles in the early universe would have been governed by the laws of quantum mechanics.

    So rather than collapsing and destroying itself at the end of a period of contraction, the universe was likely saved by quantum mechanics.

    This would mean the universe did not experience a violent beginning or ending, as in the Big Bang and Big Crunch scenarios.

    Read more:

    One of several problems with standard Big Bang theory is that, for it to be possible, the speed of light would have to be exceeded at the beginning of the ‘Bang’.

  157. oldbrew says:

    Research: California droughts caused mainly by changes in wind, not moisture

    “Ocean evaporation has little direct influence on California precipitation because of its relatively weak variability,” Wei said.

    Instead, the researchers found that disturbances in atmospheric circulation, the large-scale movement of air, have the most effect on drought because they can affect factors that will cause it to rain more or less.

    Read more at:

    ‘Global warming’ gets its foot in the door at the end of the story:

    ‘Most of California has been in a severe drought since 2011, although a strong El Niño in the winter of 2015 helped diminish the drought. The current drought is caused by a high-pressure system that disturbs the atmospheric circulation. The development of the high-pressure system is related to a sea surface temperature pattern in the Pacific Ocean, according to research cited by the study.

    “Although this is a very rare event, the probability of this kind of high-pressure system is likely increasing with global warming,” the authors said.

    Yes, a ‘likely’ story.

  158. J Martin says:

    Anyone care to speculate on the likelihood of several years solar minimum this time around ?
    With the sunspot count dropping quite a lot recently it raises the possibility of an unusual short low cycle. As the last minimum lasted for two years when all (?) previous minimums have been just one year, I was wondering if we might soon see the start of a multi year minimum, before the next solar cycle starts in 2022 ?

    Though it does seem much too early for such an event to occur. A 3 year minimum perhaps ?

  159. oldbrew says:

    J Martin: the sunspot record is relatively short (< 400 years) so we may see something not previously recorded. Why not?

  160. Paul Vaughan says:

    ERSSTv3b2 EOFs 1-4:

  161. Paul Vaughan says:

    Believe it or not that was done in Excel 2003.

  162. oldbrew says:

    Clash of energy civilisations and the public good

    By Diarmaid Williams – International Digital Editor

    See para.: Beliefs of the Rival Factions

  163. oldbrew says:

    Proof that NASA is in the climate brainwashing business.

    ‘Greenhouse gases are gases that can trap heat. They get their name from greenhouses. A greenhouse is full of windows that let in sunlight. That sunlight creates warmth. The big trick of a greenhouse is that it doesn’t let that warmth escape.

    That’s exactly how greenhouse gases act. They let sunlight pass through the atmosphere, but they prevent the heat that the sunlight brings from leaving the atmosphere.’

    Appalling tripe.

  164. Paul Vaughan says:

    On the most recent RJ Salvador thread I posted this to underscore widely ignored ENSO asymmetry:


    Taking the derivative gives a further reminder:


    Interpretive caution: The BDO (bidecadal oscillation) swung really hard in the South Pacific early in the record. (As I’ve mentioned before: This is something I’ve animated but not shared publicly. (I currently have no time and money to finish developing the prototyped software.))

    I left related remarks (on flow geometry & topology) on the recent Antarctic thread (linked upthread).

    I’ll share further commentary to help people get their heads around these geometric and topological insights as/when time & resources permit. There’s actually a lot to discuss. People will probably find it difficult. It will be trying for all of us.

  165. Paul Vaughan says:

    Over here…
    …I noted:

    “FYI this is the 1st time I’ve seen BDO visible to the naked eye in an ENSO index.”


    The timing of BDO polarity reversal is exactly as I illustrated here:

    I’ve been hunting for this smoking gun since 2008.
    Splitting MEIx into La Nina versus El Nino brings simple, clear focus.

    A lot of damage has been done.
    Climate commentators are conditioned to think insight can never sharpen.
    Western security has been compromised by a movement based on false information.

    May the cleanup begin…

    (illustrations forthcoming….)

  166. Paul Vaughan says:

    Bill Illis
    July 15, 2016 at 7:20 pm

    Earth’s Albedo has varied between 24% and 50% in the last 3.0 billion years. Today it is 29.8% as in 29.8% of the sunlight received by the Earth is reflected directly back to space within 0.1 seconds and does [not] contribute to Earth’s energy balance. It only takes less than 0.1 seconds for reflected sunlight to leave the Earth system at the speed of light.

    Albedo has been as low as 24% in the Hothouse periods when most of the continents were concentrated at the equator – think Pangea 265 Mya super-continent centered at the equator or Cretaceous Earth at 94 Mya when the continents were concentrated at the equator and sea level was higher so that 30% of the continent were flooded by low Albedo shallow ocean.

    This is Earth with 24% Albedo and global temperatures at +9.0C / +10.0C.

    And then 50% Albedo as in Snowball Earth when 50% of the continents were at the South Pole and/or in direct contact with these continents. As in Glaciers build up at the South Pole to 5 kms high and spread by gravity to all the continents in contact with these South Pole continents. As in Earth with 50% Albedo and temperatures at -25.0C from today. As in, the sea ice even extended to 30 degree latitudes. Happened 4 different times in history with the last one peaking at 635 Mya.

    Glaciers have 70% Albedos while every other Earth-situation is in the 25% category. Glaciers do not build up on ocean, (one can have sea ice) but it is when the continents/land are at the poles is when the big Albedo variances can happen.

    Something as simple as the continental alignment can be +/- 35.0C on planet Earth.

    If the Earth did not have a 23 degree tilt (or if it was just 20 degrees or something less), sorry the Earth would just be a permanent IceBall because the snow would NEVER melt at the poles in the summer and they would always be building up into 8 kms high glaciers and pushing towards the equator – ocean or not. IceBall Earth with anything less than a 20 degree tilt..

    If the Earth had little ocean and was just mainly continents, sorry IceBall Earth once again. Water turns into ice at the poles, builds into glaciers and pushes toward the equator. Albedo at 50% and IceBall Earth again.

    One can imagine 20 other situations where Albedo determines what the temperature of the planet is regardless of whether it is in the goldilocks zone or not. […]

  167. Paul Vaughan says:

    Clear bidecadal order in integrated ENSO volatility (from MEIx):

    Beginning now we measure how long the western mainstream ignores this systematic structure.

  168. oldmanK says:

    PV, quoting from Bill Illis says “If the Earth did not have a 23 degree tilt (or if it was just 20 degrees or something less), sorry the Earth would just be a permanent IceBall because the snow would NEVER melt at the poles in the summer and they would always be building up”.

    But there is evidence that obliquity was less than 20 degrees. The hypothesis there says that polar ice did build up when it was less, that the resultant effect was ‘climate friction’ (discussed in another thread), resulting in a cyclic change of obliquity. Fantasy?? Not likely since there is evidence that it is not. Two months ago it was proven that a calendar with a 2000 year history of development and relying on obliquity to forecast date, is extremely accurate. That evidence says there were times when obliquity was substantially less in those 2000+ years.

    Bill illis says the earth is a really lucky planet. NO. Humanity simply had a breathing space to develop. It may not be so in the future. It wasn’t so in the past and we have enough ancient stories/warnings of that.

    Otherwise we might as well hope all the troubles in the EU will be solved by the Tooth Fairy.

  169. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, I would love to see you and Bill Illis work this out with a SLOW conversation lasting many months (or longer) here at the talkshop. Bill’s the top commentator at wuwt by a wide margin, but I won’t say he’s perfect. I give him 91%. (There was one time when he disappointingly sounded obsequious supporting shamefully distortionist W.E. antics; at least 8 points had to be deducted for that even if it was just a passing judgement slip.)

    BDO 101

    Let’s get these 2 up side-by-side:
    1. integrated La Nina – El Nino contrast
    2. bidecadal integrated ENSO volatility (from extended multivariate ENSO index (MEIx))
    Note that the BDO is clear enough to eyeball in the integrated La Nina – El Nino contrast (#1).

    That’s another longstanding evasive puzzle piece not only found but crystallized.

    Any academic reading this comment should be able to spend 5 minutes calibrating that to check the amplitude. I outlined the dead simple construction on the most recent RJ Salvador thread (linked above).

    I appreciate and respect both RJ & RJ’s contributions and I apologize if it came across otherwise but I just had to respond to his focus on the mean by balancing attention towards the volatility.

    I actually don’t understand why people ignore the statistical properties of the volatility, many of which are systematic. I could speculate that their mentors did not sufficiently emphasize residual diagnosis of theoretically false inferential assumptions. I might also suspect a lack of luminary spatiotemporal aggregation criteria provocation — i.e. an educational void where they just didn’t encounter any mentors philosophically luminary in that area.

    I learned some helpful diagnostic tips from foresters and biologists. I only ever met one mathematical statistician who devoted due attention to thorough diagnostics. 99+% of the math-statisticians just blew blizzards of algebra with never even a thought devoted to the possibility of false theoretical assumptions or what to do if/when they’re diagnosed empirically.

    On spatiotemporal aggregation criteria I was blessed with the exceptionally good fortune of luminary mentoring from a population biologist with the patience and endurance to provoke students to philosophical extremes. My top 2 mentors were mavericks.

    Overcoming cross-cultural awareness obstacles takes time (skipping due empirical diagnostics is a cultural problem, not a theoretical problem), but the overdue backlash on widespread p-value abuse at least signals that a wake-up call is underway (a little too late).

    If/when time permits I’ll illustrate the ENSO volatility BDO using alternate methods, along with the arctic oscillation = northern annular mode interannual frequency coupling I’ve previously mentioned.

  170. Paul Vaughan says:

    An important exercise for all sensible, responsible parties…
    See if you can spot the FALSE assumptions about ENSO volatility structure:

    How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

    I need to give you a reason to TRY to understand what I’ve illustrated.

    What I’ve illustrated is dead simple and rock solid.
    If you can’t easily understand it, we have a serious problem.

    The attitude they have (cavalier attitude towards residual diagnostics) is literally “F*** global stability!”

    If you search “volc” in their paper, you won’t even find mention of volcanoes.
    They don’t even see the connection between volcanoes and volatility.

    People like this and like Mark Carney are going to walk western security and global stability off a cliff if not persuaded towards better sense with a due sense of urgency.

    It’s important to understand illustrations 1 & 2 from my last post. Everyone should be able to do it. That math is that easy. I’m here to coach on this one. Don’t be embarrassed if you need help. Be brave and publicly ask for help on this one if you need it. Ignorance isn’t going to stop the damage Carney and others are going to do to global stability with their “planning” based on studies like this.


  171. Paul Vaughan says:

    Something else to think about:

    Look at what the wind is doing to ocean current speeds around the ice margins in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean:

    More maps here:

    Global ocean surface velocities from drifters: mean, variance, ENSO response, & seasonal cycle

  172. Andrew says:

    Willie Soon: ice ages, & seasonality of volcanic activity
    (Gets going 29:00)

  173. oldmanK says:

    PV, I would also like to discuss the subject further, but from some solid anchor point.

    The subject at WUWT is ~100% speculative, tending on fantasy. It was, the other day, the anniversary of the moon landing (47th). I feel privileged to have been studying engineering in those years, at the moment that ages long human dreams were turning to reality. In forty years no one has been able to visit the moon again, and we talk of inhabiting worlds in other solar systems. Already youngsters today listen to that era 40 years ago with semi-disbelief, like something a generation of older men invented to hide behind when faced with today’s advanced technical gadgetry.

    But let’s be positive, and maybe i may interest someone to work on it. In all this climate discussion, obliquity is at the root of it. But the two main formulae that express how it changes (Wittmann’s and Lieske’s) in reality only hold good for the past two millennia. We have readings for what it was a thousand years before that. My aim is to tinker with that formula to make it fit better the whole 3k years. Any takers on that?

  174. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, wuwt is not a suitable venue for serious discussion. It’s too bent by political mission.

    I suspect that something quite interesting will arise if some way (other than wuwt and other than CE) can be found for you & Bill Illis to communicate.

    If there are data you find interesting, please link to them or post them. I remember you linking to some hand-drawn illustration, but I don’t remember any link to a plain-text data page.

  175. oldmanK says:

    Something different:

    A chemistry text book I consulted on Hydrogen years ago said -matter of fact- “those who dabbled with hydrogen never lived to tell” (exact quote). I would like to know how that has been overcome, in the kitchen especially. Safety apart, the hydrogen flame is very hot – I like my egg fried not carbonised.

  176. Paul Vaughan says:

    Following on from:


    Draconic aliasing biases AO (arctic oscillation). Wow. It’s so clear now. I could already see 6-7 & 19 years ago, but 96 cements it. I don’t see any possibility that the mainstream can ignore this and simultaneously maintain a semblance of credibility.

    I’m sure Piers Corbyn is well aware of the polar motion connection (6-7 & 19), but I suspect the 96 derivation I gave (based on QBO, semi-annual, & annual — see exchange with Ed above where I reviewed and clarified with slip-illustration what I had earlier glossed over with numbers-only at higher speed on days when too busy) adds a new level of clarity.

    OB, at June 20, 2016 at 4:42 pm you quoted something I later corrected. I hope Sidorenkov realizes that 35 & 96 are 2 sides of the same coin. (I’ll look to find time to outline a clarifying review relatively soon.)

    Someone should persuade Lindzen to comment on Pukite’s baiting relatively soon.

    This is moving fast. It’s like declassification or something…

  177. Ian Wilson says:

    This may be of some interest.

    Fortnightly modulation of San Andreas tremor and low-frequency earthquakes


    The sun and moon exert a gravitational tug on Earth that stretches and compresses crustal rocks.
    This cyclic stressing can promote or inhibit fault slip, particularly at the deep roots of faults.
    The amplitude of the solid Earth tide varies over a fortnightly (2-wk) cycle, as the sun and moon
    change their relative positions in the sky. In this study, we show that deep, small earthquakes
    on the San Andreas Fault are most likely to occur during the waxing fortnightly tide—not when
    the tidal amplitude is highest, as might be expected, but when the tidal amplitude most exceeds
    its previous value. The response of faults to the tidal cycle opens a window into the workings of
    plate tectonics.

  178. oldmanK says:

    A nice lesson in fundamentals:

  179. Paul Vaughan says:

    The time is right to evict the California dark agents from the climate discussion.

  180. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve run diagnostics. The ENSO BDO is J-S, not Hale.

  181. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’m running a series of diagnostics that separate IPO from MEIx and split MEIx into mean and volatility components. One extremely noteworthy insight is that MEIx mean’s spatial pattern IS SPATIALLY ORTHOGONAL TO MEIx volatility’s spatial pattern. (Read that sentence again.) Textbooks on climate spatiotemporal pattern will have to be rewritten. Since this is orthogonal to everyone’s thinking and instincts, it won’t sink in.

  182. Paul Vaughan says:

    This is where the going gets heavy for those hoping for lighter reading…

    Expanding on that last comment because probably none of this will be intuitive for anyone

    Although locally in time the correlation of MEIx with MEIx volatility is a perfect 1, globally (in time) it is 0.

    If you take the spatial derivative of the MEIx EOF (empirical orthogonal function) you can weight from that a PC (principal component) that estimates MEIx volatility.

    You will find the underpinning spatiotemporal theory nowhere in textbooks. As Tomas Milanovic has counseled us: A complete theory of spatiotemporal chaos does not yet exist.

    What we are learning from exploration is that a temporal theory of chaos SIMPLY WILL NOT DO in a SPATIOtemporal context. NOTHING I have seen ANYWHERE in textbooks or in climate discussion OR ANYWHERE would have conditioned me to KNOW to look for what I found by simply exploring. I’m discovering this BY LOOKING.

    Someone else with mathematical prowess — if they look at this stuff with due seriousness (won’t happen at venues like wuwt for political reasons) — may wake up and know how to write down the equations governing the relationship of the temporal volatility and the spatial derivatives. This will be a wake-up call for them because they’re more inclined to thinking the surface spatial derivative should relate to the time derivative, but that thinking is wrong because it ignores the z-axis (which goes both into the sky and underwater).

    The time derivative does have some relation with the surface spatial derivative, but the surface spatial derivative’s relation to the time volatility is MUCH stronger.

    This is a key clue about what has been going wrong with conceptualization of climate spatiotemporal pattern in conventional minds. For action on the z-axis the volatility plays a role in variation in surface spatial extent. People may have difficulty making that interpretation even if they understand that not only the time derivative but also the volatility BOTH are globally orthogonal to the series from which they are derived. (Think carefully about that last statement until you grasp it.)

    I don’t expect anyone to understand what I’m writing, but if/when time permits I’ll illustrate it and there will be some “seeing is believing” even if it won’t make sense to people why it is so.

    There are really simple things that exist even if people don’t yet understand why. That may be a difficult fact to accept for some

    May I suggest we open Suggestions-20

    Insights this clear and simplifying must surely be divinely inspired…

    …and it correlates PERFECTLY with their beloved aerosols! Who would have thought?? Certainly not them! They f****d up royally… …and it’s criminal that THEY get the free ride.

    [mod] S-20 is not far away

  183. Paul Vaughan says:

    Tip: Anyone trying to tell you something about ENSO with no mention of volcanoes: total BS.

  184. Paul Vaughan says:

    According to NOAA’s ERSSTv4, volcano physics reversed ~1940?…
    They’re being deathly silent about the natural cause of their bias reversal. Remember: THEY get the free ride… THEY f****d up and they get the free ride…

    Here’s a tip:


    …and would you believe all of the “corrections” NOAA made from v3b to v4 were perfectly related to volcanic activity?? (Even they don’t know!!!)

    (really simple illustrations forthcoming on Suggestions-20…)

  185. Poly says:

    Yup Paul, please give us some illustrations. Easier for us less qualified followers to understand and conceptualise.
    Volcanos and ENSO together add up to huge economic risk/reward factors.

  186. oldbrew says:

    “The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is a delicate balance between what is emitted from natural sources and by human activity, and what is absorbed by the oceans and by plant life on land. Scientists have been puzzled about why the level of CO2 dipped slightly during a prolonged cool period called the Little Ice Age (1500-1750AD). Using measurements of atmospheric gases trapped in an ice core collected by British Antarctic Survey nearly 20 years ago, our colleagues have been able to explain that less CO2 was released from natural sources as the climate cooled.”

    Read more at:

    So to expect an increase in CO2 following the LIA would be quite natural😉

  187. oldbrew says:

    More exoplanetary resonance – Kepler-80.

    ‘Another rare attribute of the Kepler-80 system is that its planets have “synchronized” orbits. “The outer four planets return to almost exactly the same configuration every 27 days,” said Ragozzine. This effect is known as a “resonance” and helps the system remain gravitationally stable.’

    Read more at:

    This GIF shows the synchronized orbit of the Kepler-80 system. Credit: Florida Institute of Technology

  188. Paul Vaughan says:

    Another 96:
    in the integral of the ENSO component extracted from ICOADS meridional wind. (You won’t find it in zonal.)
    This makes sense given that we’re looking at a cycling pole-pole contrast.
    As always: illustrations forthcoming.

  189. oldbrew says:

    More baffled scientists:

    ‘Researchers have discovered that four old red dwarf stars with masses less than half that of the Sun are emitting X-rays at a much lower rate than expected.’

    “We found that these smaller stars have magnetic fields that decrease as they age, exactly as it does in stars like our Sun,” said Wright. “This really goes against what we would have expected.”

    Read more at:

  190. Fast says:

    Some readers maybe interested in this youtube video by Tony Heller alias Steve Goddard on “Evaluating The Integrity Of Official Climate Records” July 13, 2016.

  191. Hi,
    Tim, roger and oldbrew

    “…….This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250…..”


  192. oldbrew says:

    Breakthrough solar cell captures carbon dioxide and sunlight, produces burnable fuel

    “The new solar cell is not photovoltaic—it’s photosynthetic,” says Amin Salehi-Khojin, assistant professor of mechanical and industrial engineering at UIC and senior author on the study.

  193. oldbrew says:

    Thanks Michele – the link says: ‘The TSI spectral results (see Sect. S4) show three main,
    significant periodicities around 5000, 2400 and 900 years’

    The 900 year periodicity can be explained as the half period of de Rop’s 1799 year anomalistic cycle.
    A maximum occurs at perihelion every 1799 years and the minimum is at aphelion half way through that cycle [1799/2 = 899.5 years].

    de Rop: ‘only once in about 1 800 years the line of nodes
    and the line of apsides (the Moon in its perigee)
    coincides with the major axis of the Earth’s
    orbit and the position of the Earth in the
    perihelion. In case of this double coincidence,
    the tidal forces exerted by Sun and Moon will
    reach an absolute maximum.’

    We find that the difference between the number of anomalistic and draconic months in 1799 anomalistic years is almost exactly 300.

    de Rop explains:
    ‘The perigee moves 0.164 358 002 0 a day relative
    to the node, corresponding to 360 [degrees] in a period p
    2190.340565 days. So, when the perigee of
    the Moon’s orbit coincides with the ascending
    node, then this situation repeats after
    2190.340565 days. This period p corresponds
    to 5.996 667 350 anomalistic years, thus nearly
    an entire number of anomalistic years. A period
    of 300 p corresponds to 1799.0002050 anomalistic
    years, hence, to exactly an entire number of
    anomalistic years.’

    In other words, the amount of time by which period p falls short of 6 anomalistic years accumulates to one anomalistic year after every 1799 years (300 x 6, minus 1).

  194. tchannon says:

    Been around some time oldbrew. I too noticed the peddling in the press again.

    Needs concentrated CO2, that doesn’t appear by magic in vast amounts. Give money.

    Energy density is where all these fantasy ideas fall. A productivity matter as much as anything.

  195. oldbrew says:

    Dr Spencer wades in again: ‘The Warm Earth: Greenhouse Effect, or Atmospheric Pressure?’
    July 30th, 2016

    ‘Finally, just because the greenhouse effect exists does not mean that global warming in response to increasing carbon dioxide will be a serious problem…that is another issue entirely, and involves things like cloud feedbacks. I’m only referring to the existence of the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect, which to me is largely settled science.’

  196. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 20 now.


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