Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like.😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 21

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Booker: The Guardian’s ‘100 months to save the planet’ was always just a fantasy

    Despite the 2016 El Nino spike, now rapidly declining, satellite measurements still show that the trend in global temperatures has not risen for 18 years.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Case of Earth’s missing continental crust solved—it sank

    “We’re taught in Geology 101 that continental crust is buoyant and can’t descend into the mantle,” Ingalls said. The new results throw that idea out the window.

    Read more at:

  4. oldbrew says:

    Hurricane Matthew: Matt Drudge conspiracy comments kick up storm

  5. oldbrew says:

    Key component of EDF’s flagship nuclear reactor is missing safety certificate

    EDF – the energy company building the power plant – is awaiting a verdict from the French nuclear regulator ASN over allegedly faulty parts produced by its forging facility, including the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) at the heart of its flagship Flamanville project.

    This has surfaced before. It’s the design to be used at Hinkley Point C.

    From Private Eye: The #Hinkley_Point deal will cost taxpayers a fortune — but it’s earning one for KPMG

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    On S-21 I left a mystery hanging. The first ozone illustration was secular not Schwabe. I’ll illustrate the Schwabe correction sometime down the road as/when time permits.

    I’ve been reviewing an insolation article with co-authors Soon & Carter. I was disappointed to see a false spatial assumption:

    “In contrast to the precessional forcing, the intrinsic changes of solar irradiance are symmetrical and hence produce a synchronized forcing on both hemispheres.”

    I’m guessing they didn’t even check that assertion empirically.

    The “E” in JEV is Earth.

    harmonic of 11.0696499227531 nearest 1 is 1.00633181115938
    (1.006331811)*(1) / (1.006331811 – 1) = 158.9326949 (correlation sign cycle)

    harmonic of 11.0696499227531 nearest 0.5 is 0.503165905579689
    (0.503165906)*(0.5) / (0.503165906 – 0.5) = 79.46634745 (SAOT tower cluster translation symmetry …as I pointed out in the 2010 article that got vanished from the web)

    79.46634745 / 2 = 39.73317373 (Markowitz wobble)

    Climate discussion is about endless misunderstandings.

  7. Paul Vaughan says:


    harmonic of 79.4663474501329 nearest 6.4185927387767 is 6.62219562084441
    (6.622195621)*(6.418592739) / (6.622195621 – 6.418592739) = 208.7651034

    where 6.418592739 is the harmonic mean of the matrix of all possible pairwise harmonic means of JEV, SEV, UEV, & NEV (as introduced previously and shelved for continuation at a later date = today).

    …and also note that a harmonic nearly hits the BDO:

    79.46634745 / 4 = 19.8665868625332

    harmonic of 19.8665868625332 nearest 6.4185927387767 is 6.62219562084441
    (6.622195621)*(6.418592739) / (6.622195621 – 6.418592739) = 208.7651034

    For comparison:

    (11.862615)*(29.447498) / (11.862615 – 29.447498) = 19.86503587

    Note also that:

    harmonic of 39.7331737250665 nearest 6.4185927387767 is 6.62219562084441
    (6.622195621)*(6.418592739) / (6.622195621 – 6.418592739) = 208.7651034

    It’s informative that 20 year multidecadal polar motion absolute deviations rectified from a 40 year wave are coherent with the global average SST field. This poses a simple hydrological geometric interpretive challenge for agencies like NASA JPL …who will for sure keep silent (social & political intimidation) should the simplicity of the hydrological geometry consciously register.

  8. oldbrew says:

    British physicist Brian Cox believes he knows why we haven’t found aliens
    He claims any sort of intelligent life is destroying itself before it evolves
    Technology that allows power but produces greenhouse gases, or nuclear weapons, may destroy civilizations within a few thousand years – like us

    Read more:

    Surprise – he’s got a book to sell…

    Professor Cox has just published a book written with his fellow Manchester University physicist Jeff Forshaw – Universal: A Guide to the Cosmos

  9. oldbrew says:

    From Timo Niroma – The Third Millennium BC (3100-2100 BC): Two separate cataclysms

    So there seems to be a difference between the 2350 BC and 2200 BC events. I suggest that the 2350 BC event was local, an Anatolian event, from the Aegean to the Caspian. The 2200 BC event was global, as seen by the evidence from Iberia to China.

  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    Advisory: This individual is neither qualified nor capable of discerning what would constitute a “credible procedure”:

    “Well I don’t have any conclusions obviously at this point, the above summarizes the issues that we are grappling with as we set this up. You may ask why we are even doing this project, given the magnitude of the challenges. […] I would like to establish some sort of credible procedure for developing 21st century scenarios of climate variability and methodology for assessing uncertainty.”

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    Note also:

    harmonic of 22.1392998455063 nearest 1 is 1.00633181115938
    (1.006331811)*(1) / (1.006331811 – 1) = 158.9326949

    harmonic of 22.1392998455063 nearest 0.5 is 0.503165905579689
    (0.503165906)*(0.5) / (0.503165906 – 0.5) = 79.46634745

  12. oldbrew says:

    One for the Predictions page perhaps…

    Europeans brace for coldest winter in a century
    OCTOBER 10, 2016
    According to meteorologists Dominik Jung, Joe Bastardi and Elena Volosiouk.

    An earlier forecast on fairly similar lines…

  13. RJ Salvador says:

    If this model forecast of the ENSO is valid, then both this winter and the next when will be very cold.

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    For more conventional mainstream academic minds, from accepted LOD & polar motion:

    (5.9313075)*(6.409530885) / (5.9313075 – 6.409530885) = 79.49610962

    I’ll illustrate a reminder of the stratospheric volcanism temporal translation symmetry when time permits.

    We need to get past these assumptions of insolation uniformity.

    I’m giving 3 different ways to look at it (solar system; conventional earth orientation parameters (EOP) & hydrology; and stratospheric volcanism (aerosol optical depth)).

    What cannot be escaped: (a) asymmetry (b) uncanny temporal translation symmetry.

    The potential may be set by 97 or the integral of solar wind (past illustration), but the event schedule within that envelope appears constrained.

    Amplitude of decadal semi-annual wind, pressure, and temperature gradients in the southern ocean are coherent with the aerosol towers, so a first question I’d be asking modelers is: Are you bothering with a realistic Antarctic circumpolar SAO?

    I’m also looking at coherence with Schwabe polar (total column) ozone.

    It could be quite simple and just no one bothered with realistic representation of volcanic effects at semi-annual timescale at those latitudes (maybe falsely thinking that’s only something you have to think about near the equator).

    There’s definitely something here for a conventional mainstream research paper, even without considering why the 79.5 year temporal translation symmetry is so incredibly striking (as outlined in 2010 and now up for reminder).

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

  16. Paul Vaughan says:

    pairwise XEV harmonic means where X=J,S,U,N

    ___________	11.06964992	9.007246722	5.018891421	4.492694707
    11.06964992	11.06964992	9.932517933	6.906452219	6.391396515
    9.007246722	9.932517933	9.007246722	6.446021398	5.995108925
    5.018891421	6.906452219	6.446021398	5.018891421	4.741238027
    4.492694707	6.391396515	5.995108925	4.741238027	4.492694707

    grand harmonic mean = harmonic mean (JEV, SEV, UEV, NEV) = 6.418592739

    a very old illustration for review:
    I(SW) = integral of solar wind

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    …so the wind is throwing water around, changing the pattern of SSH (sea surface heights) and thus the pattern of stress on the hull (the crust). In other words: Stuff is coupled …including explosive volcanism. You can put El Nino Modoki on the pictures too (alongside MEIx). It doesn’t change the insight: Stuff is coupled internally and the sun yanks on that chain to shake stuff around. The sun’s temporal patterns get scrambled spatially.

  18. oldbrew says:

    Did China pinch Scottish wave power tech?

    Mysterious factory break-in raises suspicions about Chinese visit

    A burglary at an innovative Scottish wave-power company went forgotten, until a very similar project appeared in China

  19. oldbrew says:

    Baffled scientists again: Mystery of KIC 8462852 Deepens

    “It’s a big challenge to come up with a good explanation for a star doing three different things that have never been seen before,” Dr. Montet said.

    No known or proposed stellar phenomena can fully explain all aspects of the observed light curve.

  20. Paul Vaughan says:

    Catching up on what Pukite’s been up to…

    Provocative Question:

    How else would Earth-Venus angular momentum be stable at Milankovitch timescale without JEV antiresonance?…

    13.68233104 = φ/(J+S)

    “In addition, some signals that were previously not definitely observed by predecessors were detected in this study, with periods and amplitudes of 9.13 d and 0.12 ms, 13.69 yr and 0.10 ms, respectively.”

    2016 – Detection of different-time-scale signals in the Length of Day variation based on EEMD analysis technique

    9.13d is neither new nor mysterious.

    Maybe an illustration of globally-averaged 41ka obliquity phase anomalies will help…

    (to be continued….)

  21. oldbrew says:

    Discussing the difference in meaning between random and chaotic in climate theory, or something like that.

    PV says: ‘Provocative Question:

    How else would Earth-Venus angular momentum be stable at Milankovitch timescale without JEV antiresonance?…’

    8 E-V = 1 J-N is fairly accurate?

  22. oldbrew says:

    Solar Panel Road Still Hasn’t Generated Any Power After Spending Millions

    Scientists repeatedly criticized the scheme as panels on roads wouldn’t be tiled to follow the sun which makes them incredibly inefficient, would often be covered by cars during periods when the sun is out and wouldn’t be capable of serving as a road for long.

    Read more:

    Teething problems perhaps…
    Despite internet hype, a prototype of the solar “road” built in Idaho couldn’t be driven on, didn’t generate any electricity and 75 percent of its panels broke within a week of installation. Of the panels installed to make a “solar footpath,” 18 of the 30 were dead on arrival due to a manufacturing failure. A short rain shower caused another four panels to fail, and only two panels appear to be presently functional.

  23. oldbrew says:

    Observable Universe contains ten times more galaxies than previously thought

    The decreasing number of galaxies as time progresses also contributes to the solution of Olbers’ paradox—why the sky is dark at night.

    Read more at:

    According to the research, about 90 percent of galaxies in the observable universe are too faint and too far away to be seen with present-day telescopes. [JWST will change that]

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, that “Lorenz Validated” thing is just total BS and so is the commentary on “Chaos Theory”. A theory of SPATIOtemporal Chaos DOES NOT YET EXIST (in public for humans on Earth at least). Having endless conversations about TEMPORAL (time-ONLY) chaos doesn’t change that. There’s due cause for stern suspicion of all agencies playing games with this.

  25. oldbrew says:

    Rising Rivers in South Iceland

    ‘Heaviest rain in years’

  26. oldmanK says:

    Something on ‘Chaos’ — with plenty of chaotic/greek maths where to get lost -for me definitely.

    After a 40 year plus career involved with prime movers, and being one with a cat’s curiosity to fiddle their governor systems, (out of necessity and being the only fool who dared) I was looking for something on the related maths. Something more modern than the maths of half a century ago. I came across the below.

    Something on what’s beyond the stability fringe. It is put interestingly even if you choose to skip the math squiggles.

  27. oldbrew says:

    Charity Calls on Leo DiCaprio to Resign as UN Climate ‘Messenger of Peace’

    The calls for DiCaprio to resign from his position at the United Nations, which was bestowed upon him in 2014, stem from the actor’s reported connection to several figures embroiled in the world’s largest embezzlement scheme.

    Climate of suspicion😎

  28. oldbrew says:

    Another renewables fiasco, this time in Canada…

    Ontario’s electricity, “carnage”, “a train wreck”, electricity costs double to reduce carbon at $250/ton
    Boondoggle: How Ontario’s pursuit of renewables broke their electricity system

    A bunch of parasites fooled the Premier and they are getting rich by selling expensive electrons that are supposed to change the weather 50 years from now.

    Calling them naive would be an understatement. They’ve been mugged and there are plenty more like that.

  29. Paul Vaughan says:

    97 ENSO volatility in South African Rainfall & Drought:

    2001 – 20th century droughts in Southern Africa: Spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions

  30. oldbrew says:

    Scientific support for this Talkshop Why Phi? post.

    Capture Resonance of the Asteroid 1685 Toro by the Earth
    L. Danielsson1, W. -H Ip2
    + Author Affiliations
    Science 26 May 1972:
    Vol. 176, Issue 4037, pp. 906-907
    DOI: 10.1126/science.176.4037.906

    See also:
    (section 8.5.2)

  31. oldbrew says:

    Extraterrestrial impact preceded ancient global warming event

    Could be something or nothing. No impact crater found to date.
    Annoying article keeps referring to ‘carbon’ when it means ‘carbon dioxide’.

    Also: A reliance on negative emissions technologies is locking in carbon addiction

    More hand-wringing about the ‘dreaded’ trace gas that is a tiny 1 part in 2500 in our atmosphere.

  32. oldbrew says:

    Spiral galaxy (left), tropical storm (right)

  33. Poly says:

    Paul Vaughan says:
    October 15, 2016 at 9:17 am
    97 ENSO volatility in South African Rainfall & Drought:

    Prof Will Alexander spent a career alleviating, studying and documenting this drought cycle. Unfortunately, he has not been much acknowledged;

  34. oldbrew says:

    Lawsuit charges conspiracy to hide truth, promote propaganda for financial gain

    A mathematician and software engineer has filed a lawsuit in Texas naming dozens of environmental groups and others seeking to influence public action and expenditures regarding global warming programs in an action alleging violations of RICO.


  35. oldbrew says:

    The biter bit – more legal argy-bargy [H/T WUWT]

    Federal Court Delivers Stunning Blow to Mass. AG and #ExxonKnew Campaign

    …a federal judge today issued a discovery order against Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey to determine whether “bias or prejudgment” influenced her decision to initiate a “bad faith” investigation into ExxonMobil, just days after she appeared before news cameras with New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, Al Gore and other Democratic state attorneys general in New York.


    Looks like Al Gore has dumped these hapless AGs in the smelly stuff.

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    What can we learn about circulatory asymmetry from the East Pacific and South Atlantic voids on these cyclone maps?

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Theories concerning infrequency of occurrence

    Until April 1991 it was thought that tropical cyclones did not develop within the South Atlantic.[1] Very strong vertical wind shear in the troposphere is considered a deterrent.[2] The Intertropical Convergence Zone drops one to two degrees south of the equator,[3] not far enough from the equator for the Coriolis force to aid development. Water temperatures in the tropics of the southern Atlantic are cooler than those in the tropical north Atlantic.[4]”,-60,180,85&width=375&height=151&srs=EPSG:4326&format=image%2Fpng&transparent=true&layers=ndh:ndh-cyclone-hazard-frequency-distribution,cartographic:national-boundaries

  38. oldbrew says:

    Re El Niño and wind shear…

    ‘In general, warm El Niño events are characterized by more tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.’

    ‘In El Niño years, the wind patterns are aligned in such a way that the vertical wind shear is increased over the Caribbean and Atlantic. The increased wind shear helps to prevent tropical disturbances from developing into hurricanes. In the eastern Pacific, the wind patterns are altered in such a way to reduce the wind shear in the atmosphere, contributing to more storms.’

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    East-west is second order. North-south is first order. I’m not ignoring second order …but I am suggesting first order FIRST.

  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    “This prompts a word of caution that analogies between temporal chaos (relatively well understood) and spatio-temporal chaos (badly understood) should not be used because they are likely wrong and misleading.” – Tomas Milanovic

    This is the most significant development I’ve seen in the climate discussion in a long time. Tomas Milanovic is back with a timely correction of 99.99% of climate commentators:

    The title of the article wasn’t the best choice. I can suggest the following titles for future Milanovic articles:

    1. Temporal chaos is NOT spatiotemporal chaos.
    2. SPATIOtemporal chaos DIFFERS FUNDAMENTALLY from temporal (time-ONLY) chaos.
    3. A complete theory of SPATIOtemporal chaos DOES NOT YET EXIST (in public for humans on Earth at least).

    Telling excerpts from Tomas’ article:

    “The Real Climate statement is equivalent to the implication: “If model A says 1 = 0 AND model B says 5 = 0 then the model (A+B)/2 saying 3= 0 gives a better answer“.”

    “[…] when there are more papers studying why model A doesn’t behave like model B than papers studying the climate itself, you suspect that something must have gone wrong.”

    One thing I’ve learned over the years is that no matter how many times you remind climate commentators that temporal chaos and SPATIOtemporal chaos DIFFER FUNDAMENTALLY, they JUST IGNORE THAT FACT …AND THE IMPLICATIONS. They similarly ignore the fact that a complete theory of spatiotemporal chaos DOES NOT YET EXIST (in public for humans on Earth at least).

    Tomas comments on the fundamental misdirection of conventional mainstream climate modeling:

    “[…] it is reasonable to suppose that this research direction is not adapted to explain and predict regional features. However if this post only criticized the shortcomings of numerical climate models what is quite easy, it would miss the mark .

    There are other research directions actually unfortunately understudied. I believe that the weather and therefore the climate have a global finite dimensional attractor. As the boundary conditions of the system are given by the shape and location of the continents and of the ocean floor on one side and the orbital parameters as well as the energy output of the Sun on the other side, this attractor can be considered as invariant over the time scales of interest – e.g hundreds or thousands of years.”

    I’ve selected a few article excerpts for adjustment:

    1. “Considering that almost all energy of the system is in the oceans and in the water cycle (ice, water, water vapour), the characteristic spatio-temporal functions defining the attractor would mostly describe oceanic dynamics.”

    No, the ocean is coupled to the atmosphere, wind drives ocean currents, and always always remember that glaciers fall from the sky.

    2. “Even if the attractor had millions of dimensions, by analogy with a Taylor expansion, only a small number of them could be enough to explain the system’s behaviour at the scales of interest. For instance the observations suggest that ENSO is the leading order oscillation with other large scale features like the Gulf Stream and the Circumpolar Antarctic stream following.”

    Yes to the former, but no on the latter. ENSO is secondary if with common sense you recognize the ITCZ as the central aggregation criterion …unless you restrict your comment to interannual timescale, ignoring multidecadal-centennial timescales.

    3. “Techniques allowing to reconstruct the attractor properties from lower diemnsional projections exist for temporal chaos. They could be extended to spatio-temporal chaos.”

    So far empirically I have found at least 3 types of effective spatiotemporal orthogonality, but the time-only crowd (the overwhelming majority of climate commentators — literally nearly 100% of the community) paralyzes discussion by falsely assuming there exists only 1.

    4. “I am convinced that the direction of research aiming to understand oceanic oscillations and their interactions as they are observed could lead to a real breakthrough in our understanding of climate.”

    Since it is not possible to decouple ocean from atmosphere (for example wind, evaporation, wind-driven ocean currents, water vapor flux and convergence, strong coupling of SST pattern to volcanic aerosol pattern, and the show-stopping grand closer: glaciers fall from the sky), it’s not even remotely sensible to artificially narrow focus to the ocean. I would interpret such artificial restriction as DELIBERATE SABOTAGE by leaders to ABSOLUTELY ENSURE the absence of real exploratory progress.

    Dark Agent Response…

    I notice in the comments section that a highly educated commentator is outright lying about aggregation criteria fundamentals. Do aggregation criteria affect spatiotemporal pattern? The trivial answer is YES. I recommend immediately banning the commentator for abuse of authority, same as should have been fairly done to an authority-abusing commentator at wuwt 5 or 6 years ago.

    Corrupt authorities lying to innocents is a serious transgression warranting fair banishment from the community of influence. It’s unethical to allow them predatory access to innocent victims.

    I’m particularly concerned by the implicit lying about the evolution of knots in the circulatory architecture. It comes across as a bold power play where the perpetrator assumes the audience to be of such deep ignorance that it is powerless to avoid being fooled on aggregation fundamentals.

    Based on my observations of the climate discussion over the years, the assumption is actually true for probably more than 99.99% of participants. Tomas Milanovic is the ONLY commentator I’m SURE is not in this category. What can an individual do when facing such mass ignorance? The appropriate response is to do what one can without sacrificing one’s health and general well-being.


    Absolutely refuse to entertain the notion of an anthropogenic greenhouse effect until Tomas Milanovic’s suggestions have been thoroughly heeded.


    ERSSTv4 should be retracted and v3b2 reinstated immediately:

    More generally authorities should stop callously messing around with data as this activity is adding unnecessary orders of complexity magnitude to the divide. It’s reprehensibly fracturing divisions ever more deeply, pushing even more remotely any prospects for the establishment of sound, common ground. Destroying trust like that was a fatal mistake. If you have to resort to abusive coercion to make people go your way, you’re not a natural leader and subjects will live with instinctive awareness that a natural can overthrow you and that thus you are incapable of providing stable leadership. Consider seizing this clear, easy opportunity to rebuild trust with a simple announcement: “With v4 we screwed up so we’re retracting it.” (Given the hubristic behavior patterns we’ve seen, we might instead expect an even more corrupted v5 without any admission of systematic corruption of v4.)

    A BAD subset of Americans is going to extremes to devilishly manipulate the climate discussion. An appeal to GOOD Americans: Could you please do something to help restore integrity?

  41. oldbrew says:

    Interesting analysis PV.

    “[…] when there are more papers studying why model A doesn’t behave like model B than papers studying the climate itself, you suspect that something must have gone wrong.” – Milanovic

    Good point🙂

  42. oldmanK says:

    PV’s link is interesting, including the comments — although it is definitely not my cup-of-tea.

    However from PV’s –quote “the shape and location of the continents and of the ocean floor on one side and the orbital parameters as well as the energy output of the Sun on the other side, this attractor can be considered as invariant over the time scales of interest – e.g hundreds or thousands of years.”

    Not quite. This is what I have been trying to point out all along. There is evidence disputing that. There have also been pronouncements by ancient authors saying otherwise, although these have been called liars by the historical community. We have been fed palliative ‘untruths’. What I’m referring to would not effect the gist of the subject in the link for the past two to four millennia, but be wary beyond that. Corroborating evidence of abrupt drastic changes that are way beyond of being ‘invariant’ -as I am finding- is there from multiple sources.

  43. Paul Vaughan says:

    …and you’re looking at only at 2000BC-5000BC and extrapolating back before that. I again encourage you to look at the actual multivariate observations from times before then. Time did not begin in 5000BC. You may have found evidence for a transient disturbance from the theoretical obliquity backbone. That sort of information adds richness to our understanding of perturbations, but it does not imply that 0 is a better backbone model, especially given that when you go back further — including much further — obliquity is there in the record. Have you looked? It’s not sensible to put extrapolations from one obliquity proxy before actual observations from other obliquity proxies for times before 5000BC. Maybe you can find observational evidence of lots of transient deviations from the backbone if you look at a bunch of other proxies. That sort of information from observations (NOT from extrapolations) would be quite interesting. I’m quite busy, but I look forward to succinct presentation of such information by other interested parties …and meanwhile I’m definitely not the type to put extrapolations (to out-of-sample eras) ahead of observations (from actual in-sample eras).

  44. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, I laughed out loud (involuntarily) when I read this one:

    “The Real Climate statement is equivalent to the implication: “If model A says 1 = 0 AND model B says 5 = 0 then the model (A+B)/2 saying 3= 0 gives a better answer“.” — Milanovic

    The coercive culture of illogical mainstream climate math:
    ( completely wrong + completely wrong ) / 2 = right!

    This is UN thinking?… Children will be taught:
    The average of 2 wrongs is a right …so commit the crime twice!

  45. Paul Vaughan says:

    NASA JPL struggles to understand Meridional Mode asymmetry and asserts that CMIP5 ensemble averages do NOT represent air-sea coupling realistically — look at the combination of admissions and confusion in the “conclusions”:

    Probably their funding should be increased for such honesty and integrity, especially in a time when there’s intense, malicious coercion and harassment to bluff otherwise.

    I’m going to have to dig deeper into the literature on Meridional Modes.

  46. Paul Vaughan says:

    As I instinctively expected, PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) is related to TNI & EMI (modoki indices). It’s remarkable looking at what a scramble there has been in the literature to fundamentally rethink ENSO. Here’s another article that should provoke aspiring ENSO forecasters:

    2011 – ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Nino

  47. oldmanK says:

    From PV: “you’re looking at only at 2000BC-5000BC and extrapolating back before that”. No, I am saying exactly the contrary. I am saying Do NOT extrapolate from the observed.

    The last “Observed” obliquity measurement was around 1100 bce by the Chinese. I am inferring an obliquity measurement for 2000 -5000bce from a reliable source. Beyond that it is all extrapolation from formulae. I do not think anyone has an idea where obliquity was actually parked. There are, and there will still be, signatures in the records from orbital variations, including precession, but AFAIK not from obliquity, but -ok- I may be wrong.

    I am fully in agreement with this, quote “It’s not sensible to put extrapolations from one obliquity proxy”. This is what I have been saying all along. What I have seen so far on obliquity – everywhere – is only extrapolation, and from the last 1k years; and that extrapolation departs from reality from the known 1k bce era.

    But I would question this ” before actual observations from other obliquity proxies for times before 5000BC” . Proxies on precession obliquity variation/oscillation I would agree but not on the actual value of the obliquity. But again I may stand to be corrected.

  48. Poly says:

    You are correct – there has been a huge recent interest in ENSO.
    This is a good sign because large ENSO events significant social and economic risks for a large areas of the globe.
    In particular, residents of E.Australia and SW Africa need to be aware of the critical importance of ENSO to them.
    Improved prediction of ENSO can only be a good thing.

  49. oldmanK says:

    A correction to the above. “proxies on obliquity variation/oscillation” instead of on precession.

  50. oldbrew says:

    Unsettling result for modellers of ‘settled science’…

    Problems in CMIP5 Modeling of Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability [AMV]

    In conclusion and summation, Peings et al. thus state that (16) “the amplitude of SST anomalies [in models] is generally smaller than in observations, especially in the subtropical Atlantic,” and that (17) “the potential feedback of the ocean that is identified in observations around 5 years after the peak of the AMV is not identified in the models,” which fact they suggest is (18) “likely related to the underestimation of AMV amplitude in the models.”

    Peings et al. conclude by stating that (22) “the current generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models may underestimate the unforced AMV and [23] the associated impacts on the wintertime atmospheric circulation,” while once again noting that (24) “the internal component of the AMV is too small in the CMIP5 models.”

  51. oldbrew says:

    UK news: Major role for solar an ‘impossible dream’, says think tank

    Variability, intermittency and low load factors mean solar power cannot make a significant contribution to meeting the UK’s energy needs, a new report from the Adam Smith Institute and the Scientific Alliance has concluded.

  52. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, I feel naive for being astonished at how little they understand asymmetry of the tropical Atlantic & East Pacific. I was expecting to find a longstanding crystal clear explanation for it, but in the mainstream literature I’m finding speculation, confusion, and lots of sentences ending in question marks. They’re lacking geometry and topology foundations; that much is evident. They seem to have little appreciation for the fact that no matter the physics BOUNDARY CONDITIONS SHAPE. As Bill Illis has counseled us, that accounts for plus or minus 35 C. In the literature they obviously realize land/ocean geometry is at the root (at a vague, general level), but the detailed speculation about regional implications in the tropical Atlantic and East Pacific appears to be in its infancy. It’s really disappointing.

    oldmanK, the phase of obliquity in the proxies varies with aggregation criteria. When time permits this is something I will explore. Based on a quick preliminary look, I suspect there has been a lot of misinterpretation of records based on at least 2 false SPATIOtemporal assumptions. When I did the quick look I immediately noticed something I’ve never seen reported anywhere. I’m actually starting to get quite angry at people who insist on a time-only view of climate. Their ignorance has caused just-staggering amounts of communication trouble because a consequence is that most people come to the conversation implicitly making false spatiotemporal assumptions and they don’t even realize it. How they got cultured to implicitly make these false spatiotemporal assumptions is a mystery, but it’s a vexing problem. Jose Rial is one explorer I can think of whose mind was opening in the right direction.

  53. Paul Vaughan says:

    I have never even looked at the core curriculum courses for a degree in climate science. Do the students see geometry and topology? What philosophical foundations do they get on aggregation criteria? I would love to see a webpage that summarizes variation in climate science curricula across institutions. If anyone locates such a page, please link us. Thanks.

  54. Paul Vaughan says:

    Poly, ENSO is just one component of a balanced multi-axial differential. What can be predicted is the balance. I’m not sure where this idea comes from that the multivariate partitioning can be discerned from a single component. The conservation equations are coupled to the attractors I’ve illustrated. ENSO is just one component of the residual spatiotemporal scatter that’s balanced in aggregate. The mainstream is engaged in a fundamental rethink for good reasons.

  55. oldbrew says:

    Game over for record-hungry climate alarmists?

    The planet’s longest hot streak in 137 years of record-keeping came to an end Tuesday, with last month registering as the second warmest September in modern times, said US government scientists.

    Read more at:

  56. oldbrew says:

    Australian rock formation could be older than Stonehenge, researchers say

    The Wurdi Youang stone arrangement 45km west of Melbourne was formed using about 90 blocks of basalt, a custodian, Reg Abrahams, said and clearly identifies the equinox, the winter solstice and the summer solstice.

    It could prove to be the world’s oldest astronomical observatory, with the stars and the night sky important to Aboriginal ceremony, song, navigation and time-keeping. [bold added]

    “Geologists and experts estimate it to be around 10,000 years old”

    Details could be interesting.

  57. RJ Salvador says:

    The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance.

    Harald Yndestad, Jan-Erik Solheim

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, I suggest not automatically assuming Milanovic does not mean ACTUAL values. If someone says “obliquity” my first instinct is that they mean ACTUAL obliquity (as opposed to modeled).

    Also, invariant is a technical term. It does not mean constant.

  59. oldmanK says:

    PV, good day. Some clarification from my side.

    I cannot, presently, place where Milanovic refers to obliquity. However, as it is we only have an Actual value for the past two millennia. In the previous millennium we also have a reading, which has been queried. It was investigated by Wittmann who left it a question-mark – as a possibly very erroneous reading.

    After Wittmann, JH Lieske from JPL (in a paper below) also quoted Wittmann’s findings and he too was circumspect about discarding the ancient measurements (pg 213, note that it talks of the ‘rate’ not the ‘mean’ value). There are no more ACTUAL.

    Paper here (interesting reading re the development of what is today taken for granted):

    What is noteworthy is that the difference for 1100bce is appreciable enough to cause concern, for both historical ancient disasters, and for climate considerations. It is of more concern when ‘rates of change’ are considered, being much higher for 1kbce than 1kce. (My toying with curve fitting gives a better fit for a decaying exponential. Which tied in to a lower value post ~~2900bce as measured from calendars).

    Historical background (read online):

  60. oldmanK says:

    Copy/paste all the line for paper, from http—to YES.

  61. oldbrew says:

    PEI: Summit makes case for UK tidal lagoons

    Tidal lagoon projects could provide billions of pounds to manufacturers in the UK’s so-called ‘Northern Powerhouse’.

    That was the conclusion of a summit held at Sheffield Forgemasters, the steelmaker that makes many small and large components and structures for the energy industry.

    Or they could save a fortune and build a few reliable and efficient CCGT power stations in a fraction of the time.

  62. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew, you send me back in time, memory-wise.

    The 60% effcy is achievable, but watch for excessive wastage in plant itself, a very normal pitfall. For then you will have less to sell. Better still, if flexibility is an essential in the design, one can improve the ‘combined’ output of a mix of plant – the extra benefit from single ownership.

    Your PEI link says this on flexibility “Ten years ago this type of CCGT would only have needed about 50 starts a year.” But PEI said this in 2000 : (sorry-could not resist that ).

  63. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, actual obliquity is whatever obliquity actually is.

    Repeating the same concern repeatedly does not change the fact that we are already aware of your concerns. The matter is shelved awaiting significant new information.

    Due to endless competing demands and higher priorities, I have no more time for this. Please alert us if/when you have significant new information for succinct presentation.


  64. oldbrew says:

    Even warmists can’t get round the problem of climate models chronically over-predicting global warming.

    Roy Spencer:
    ‘Overall, it looks to me like Santer et al. twist themselves into a pretzel by cherry picking data, using a new hot satellite dataset that appears to be undocumented, ignores independent (radiosonde) evidence (since it does not support their desired conclusion), and still arrives at a substantial 1.7x average bias in the climate models warming rates.’

    In other words, what they seem to want (if the bias of the models is any guide) is just not happening.

  65. oldbrew says:

    Juno mission to Jupiter already turning up surprises for scientists…

    The probe flew over the auroras with multiple instruments turned on, but “the things we expected to see weren’t there, and things we didn’t expect were there.”
    But in the last few minutes before the probe reached its closest point of approach to the planet, the data drastically diverged from the predictions, showing that the magnetic field was much stronger than expected

  66. oldbrew says:

    Baffled scientists again…

    First results from long-term, hi-res tracking of eruptions on Jupiter’s moon Io

    “While it stretches the imagination to devise a mechanism that could operate over distances of 500 kilometers, Io’s volcanism is far more extreme than anything we have on Earth and continues to amaze and baffle us”

    Read more at:

  67. oldbrew says:

    Maxwell’s demon turns up in quantum physics…maybe.

    Researchers posit way to locally circumvent Second Law of Thermodynamics

  68. oldbrew says:

    Roy Spencer: What Do 16 Years of CERES Data Tell Us About Global Climate Sensitivity?
    October 21st, 2016

    Short Answer: It all depends upon how you interpret the data.

  69. Paul Vaughan says:

    The concept of “climate sensitivity” is based on misconceptions. Why do people keep talking about it as if it’s meaningful? The answer appears to be: “Because it’s tradition.”

  70. Paul Vaughan says:

    From OB’s 2nd Law link:

    “”Although the violation is only on the local scale, the implications are far-reaching,” Vinokur said. “This provides us a platform for the practical realization of a quantum Maxwell’s demon, which could make possible a local quantum perpetual motion machine.”

    For example, he said, the principle could be designed into a “refrigerator” which could be cooled remotely—that is, the energy expended to cool it could take place anywhere.

    The authors are planning to work closely with a team of experimentalists to design a proof-of-concept system, they said.”

    Air-conditioning for hot-heads = refrigeration for air-heads! It will be a blessing if they can get the devilish lukewarmers to chill out! From the sound of it, this can be done from the Sun. Poetic justice!! Put them on ice remotely — it sounds like an overdue drug prescription!!

    We have to have some fun. It can’t always be dead serious…

  71. Paul Vaughan says:

    Luxury is not clouding this common sense observation of necessity:

    “Duterte has said he did not want to embroil the Philippines in an unwinnable war with China, which could instead be tapped as a major trading partner and source of development funds.”

    It’s eminently practical to anticipate common sense similarly gaining light — possibly suddenly under sufficiently conducive circumstances — in South Korea & Japan. Fatally suspect is the competence and honesty of naive contingency planners publicly downplaying the likelihood of human nature opting for a simpler, more effective path.

    Certainly (blame the media if you like) US politics has developed the optics of a rigged wrestling match. It’s untenable to hold this clownish model up as an ideal to be embraced uniformly. China on the other hand appears orders of magnitude more serious and sharply focused on the critical difference between necessity and luxury. There’s acute awareness of this in the East: Putting luxurious ideals before raw survival is suicide. It’s primal instinct.

  72. oldbrew says:

    PV says: ‘The concept of “climate sensitivity” is based on misconceptions. Why do people keep talking about it as if it’s meaningful?’

    I think that’s what Spencer is saying really. The data can be interpreted in such different ways that the supposed results are not useful.

  73. oldbrew says:

    Delingpole writes:

    Pielke’s mistake was to write a piece for FiveThirtyEight stating what he thought was a fairly unarguable, scientifically grounded truth: that there has been no increase in “extreme weather events” as a result of supposed man-made climate change.

    Almost instantly, Pielke found himself viciously attacked from a number of quarters, everywhere from The Guardian and The Week to the Columbia Journalism review, not to mention FiveThreeEight’s comments section, where he was accused of writing “propaganda for big oil.”

    Pielke Jr was so mortified that he never wrote on the subject of climate change for the site again and was subsequently dropped as a writer by Silver.

    Thanks to Wikileaks, we now know that the dark agent behind this monstering, was Climate Progress – the eco-fascist sub-section of ThinkProgress, run by Joe Romm, devoted to promulgating green propaganda and smearing sceptics.

    If the “science” is as settled as it frequently claims, why is it necessary to orchestrate attacks on any scientist who speaks even slightly out of turn?

  74. Paul Vaughan says:

    Spencer’s too socially conventional and not quite bright enough to be of any help OB. Someone might want to give him some points for bravery, but anyone following him is definitely going in the wrong direction.

    More generally, anyone talking about “climate sensitivity” is lost and definitely not worth listening to.

    Here they go again with TOTAL BS:

    There are a lot of mistakes in that article. The author is not qualified to write on the subject.

    No matter how many times Tomas Milanovic reminds that spatiotemporal chaos DIFFERS FUNDAMENTALLY (the key word there for any morons is “FUNDAMENTALLY”) from temporal chaos, people just keep yammering on and on and on as if they’re fundamentally the same.

    The community is 100% resistant to correction. Correction has NO effect. The community WILL push ahead with a corrupt narrative. It’s absolutely guaranteed. You can plan confidently.

  75. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve been following the commentary on Tomas Milanovic’s recent article at ce. It’s that rare occasion when I actually do so. It’s an opportunity to unambiguously assess integrity. That community is decisively corrupt. They do not care AT ALL about getting their thinking sorted out and corrected on the fundamental differences between temporal chaos and spatiotemporal chaos. It’s 100% crystal clear that rather they ONLY care about generating false persuasive appearances. The whole community should be dismissed …but let me balance this assessment with one enduring credit: captain dallas shared one very insightful graph of equatorial SSTs and eccentricity.

  76. Paul Vaughan says:

    “In Washington, officials seemed puzzled by Duterte’s comments.
    “It isn’t just the United States that is baffled by this rhetoric,” Kirby said. “We have heard from many of our friends and partners in the region who are likewise confused about where this is going.””

    “A Philippine police van rammed into protesters, leaving several bloodied, as an anti-U.S. rally turned violent Wednesday at the American Embassy in Manila.”

  77. Paul Vaughan says:

    Typhoons & Quakes ….

    “[…] Liu and his team proposed that storms might act as safety valves, repeatedly short-circuiting the buildup of dangerous levels of strain that otherwise could eventually instigate large, destructive earthquakes. This might explain, the researchers say, why the contact between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea tectonic plates, in the vicinity of Taiwan, has far less in the way of major quakes than further north where the plate boundary swings past Japan.”

    I’ll have related illustrations forthcoming. This location is the global nexus.

  78. oldbrew says:


    ‘the [PDO] index has been on a steep decline over the past couple of months’

  79. oldbrew says:

    New paper demonstrates a large gravito-thermal greenhouse effect on Earth

    A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters confirms the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect in Earth’s atmosphere using a computer model of the lower-mass early Earth atmosphere compared to the higher-mass present day atmosphere.

  80. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, remember that Bill Illis counseled that there’s not enough subsurface cool anomaly in the pipeline for a big La Nina.

  81. Paul Vaughan says:

    This is a stop-and-take-stock type of comment.

    Just like during the last US election, there’s a campaign pulling climate commentary off-message. It’s working. They hose a torrent of off-topic misinformation to distract people away from the core topics that matter. They herd people onto manipulable side-topics that are more easily controlled and push the pace off-the-dial so that during the campaign climate discussion never returns to normal.

    In future US election intervals it may be wise to just abstain from participation until it’s over. Too much time is wasted on all the red-herring chases …and going after bait just makes fools of commentators.

    There’s always room for improvements in participation strategy moving forward.

    I’m considering suspending participation until after Nov. 8 because discussion is just jerking around from one false-topic to another at a frantic pace, making involuntary yo-yos out of participants. It’s stupid.

    On the other hand I might just set a policy of strictly ignoring distractions from my own research.

    Letting torrents of egregious misinformation cross the radar unchallenged will save a lot of time. There will be countless days in the future when people will be far more receptive to sober, sensible discussion of geophysical aggregation criteria than what we’ll see during the next few weeks (when people are provoked into a devilishly defensive state by a particularly creepy US election), so I’m considering: might as well skip the daily nonsense and stick to the long game (on the scale of multiple decades).

  82. oldbrew says:

    Calls to hike tax on hybrid cars as research shows they are ‘seven times more polluting’ than pure electric

    Depending on what they mean by ‘polluting’ of course.

  83. oldbrew says:

    Scientists Debunk Climate Change Panic Behind ‘Coffee Fungus’

    Recent claims by climate alarmists that global warming was threatening the world coffee supply and the jobs of “125 million people” have turned out to be completely unfounded, according to a new study released Monday by a group of researchers from the University of Exeter.

    While National Geographic warned that “Fungus, Climate Change Threatening Big Part of Global Coffee Supply,” and the Guardian proclaimed “How Climate Change Will Wipe Out Coffee Crops – and Farmers,” the whole thing turns out to be just one more baseless climate scare.

    The scientists observed that despite volumes of literature to the contrary, “both the warming since the 1950s and the cooling since the late 1990s are entirely consistent with natural climate variability.”
    [bold added]

    The Guardian makes a fool of itself with climate exaggerations, yet again.

  84. oldbrew says:

    On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot “
    The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding

    Abridged Research Report
    [68 pages]

    These analysis results would appear to leave very, very little
    doubt but that EPA’s claim of a Tropical Hot Spot (THS), caused
    by rising atmospheric CO2 levels, simply does not exist in the
    real world. Also critically important, even on an all-other-things-equal
    basis, this analysis failed to find that the steadily rising
    Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically
    significant impact on any of the 13 critically important
    temperature time series analyzed.

    Thus, the analysis results invalidate each of the Three Lines of
    Evidence in its CO2 Endangerment Finding. Once EPA’s THS
    assumption is invalidated, it is obvious why the climate models
    they claim can be relied upon, are also invalid. And, these results
    clearly demonstrate–13 times in fact–that once just the ENSO
    impacts on temperature data are accounted for, there is no
    “record setting” warming to be concerned about. In fact, there is
    no ENSO-Adjusted Warming at all. These natural ENSO impacts
    involve both changes in solar activity and the 1977 Pacific Shift.

    Moreover, on an all-other-things-equal basis, there is no
    statistically valid proof that past increases in Atmospheric CO2
    Concentrations have caused the officially reported rising, even
    claimed record setting temperatures. To validate their claim will
    require mathematically credible, publically available,
    simultaneous equation parameter estimation work.

    The temperature data measurements that were analyzed were
    taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys
    and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if
    regardless of data source, the results are the same, the analysis
    findings should be considered highly credible.

  85. oldbrew says:

    BOM ENSO outlook latest: La Niña WATCH remains in place

    A La Niña WATCH status means there is approximately a 50% chance of La Niña developing in the upcoming season, which is about twice the normal likelihood.

  86. oldbrew says:

    Americans are more scared of clowns than they are of climate change.

    According to a poll conducted by Chapman University, 42 per cent of Americans are afraid of clowns, whereas only 32 per cent are afraid of climate change.

    Essentially climate change has become a luxury problem which only liberals in rich countries can afford to worry about. For everyone else, there are many, many more pressing concerns…

    Make your own joke up about clowns and climate change🙂

  87. oldbrew says:

    Strong earthquake strikes central Italy, shaking historic buildings in Rome

    The first quake struck at a fairly shallow depth of around 10 kilometers (six miles), and was felt as far south as Rome, where it rattled the historic city center. Given the size, depth and location of the quake, the US Geological Survey estimates that about 12 million people would have felt the shaking. The INGV said the second earthquake was of 5.9 magnitude and had a similar depth.

    “It was a very strong earthquake, apocalyptic,” Ussita Mayor Marco Rinaldi told the ANSA news agency. “People are screaming on the street and now we are without lights.”

  88. oldbrew says:

    Saturn’s weird hexagon changes colour

    The mysterious hexagon at Saturn’s northern pole has changed colour from blue to gold, scientists have said.

    The change in colour is thought to be the result of seasonal changes on the planet.

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