Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 22

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Going back a year, Ian Wilson commented:

    ‘Paul Pukite has indicated that the two dominant frequencies that he finds in the QBO are 2.715 and 2.370 tropical years.’

    Paul Vaughan replied (see linked comment below for the maths) that the two periods were:

    2.715426247 tropical years (synodic)
    2.369718033 tropical years (draconic)

    Using those figures:
    P1 = 2.715426247 tropical years
    P2 = 2.369718033 tropical years
    P1 x P2 / (P1 – P2) = 18.61337 tropical years = lunar nodal cycle period (LNC)
    LNC / P1 = 6.854676 = 2.6181436² or ~Phi^4
    It follows that: LNC / P2 = ~Phi^4 + 1 = ~Phi² x 3

    As a close approximation: 21 LNC = 144 P1 = 165 P2 (21+144)
    21 and 144 are Fibonacci numbers, 165 = 55 x 3 (both Fibonacci numbers)
    144/21 is the Fibonacci equivalent of Phi^4
    144/55 and 55/21 are both the Fibonacci equivalent of Phi²
    The period would be about 391 tropical years (165 x P2 = 391.00347)

    Pukite (I assume) alludes to the LNC possibility here:

    ‘Perhaps no one wants to admit that seeing this number show up in all these measures is most likely a forced response from the nodal lunar cycle factor, as opposed to a natural resonance. The reality is that a forced response is not as “sexy” as finding a natural frequency eigenvalue.’

    This is more definite:

    ‘I found that the [QBO] period is controlled by the frequency of the nodal lunar tide.’

    Update: The ratio of the full moon cycle to the QBO is the same as that of the lunar apsidal cycle to the lunar nodal cycle, i.e. both the shorter cycles occur 3 x Phi² times per their respective longer cycle.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Paper: The golden mean as clock cycle of brain waves

    The principle of information coding by the brain seems to be based on the golden mean.

  4. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, no one has to speculate about an “LNC possibility”. It’s old, conventional, uncontroversial knowledge that this is in LOD:

    (27.32158236)*(27.212221) / (27.32158236 – 27.212221) = 6798.387626 days
    6798.387626 / 365.242189 = 18.61336897 tropical years

    As for your observation that:
    18.61336897 / 2.715426247 ~= φ^4

    You’re the first I’ve seen pointing this out.
    It checks out to within 0.008384939% error.

    It’s an interesting observation.

  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB quoted Pukite: “‘I found that the [QBO] period is controlled by the frequency of the nodal lunar tide.’”

    Again: NASA JPL has known about this for years. They don’t say it publicly, but they (rather timidly) admit it privately as I learned in 2009.

    It’s funny that people doubt such clear things just because they aren’t made officially public and endorsed by a favored expert. There’s no controversy about QBO. We’ve known for years.

    Similarly there’s no controversy about decadal cyclic volatility of the semi-annual oscillation: It’s the sun. That’s the observed physical proof that the solar cycle length differintegral is necessarily a terrestrial spatiotemporal pattern governor.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Another way of looking at the lunar apsidal cycle (LAC):

    1 LAC = 8.847559~ Tropical years (TY)
    Full moon cycles (FMC) per LAC = LAC (TY) – 1 = 7.847559~
    7.847559~ – 1 = 6.847559~ = 2.616784² = ~Phi² (> 99.95% true).

    So the number of FMC per LAC is ~Phi^4 + 1 (see Note), which is almost exactly the same as the number of QBO per LNC, i.e. a common frequency. It follows that 1 LAC of 8.847559~ TY = (~Phi^4 + 2) TY

    Note: as stated earlier Phi^4 + 1 = Phi² x 3 — the expressions are interchangeable.

  7. Paul Vaughan says:

    From OB’s link note the connection with knot theory (as I’ve alluded before):

    Click to access chaossolitonsfractals.pdf

    Note that QBO is exactly 1 orbital away.

  8. oldbrew says:

    PV wrote:
    (27.32158236)*(27.212221) / (27.32158236 – 27.212221) = 6798.387626 days
    6798.387626 / 365.242189 = 18.61336897 tropical years

    I wrote:
    As a close approximation: 21 LNC = 144 P1 = 165 P2 (21+144)

    Put them together:
    21 x 6798.387626 = 142766.13 days
    142766 = 34 x 13 x 17 x 19 (13,21 and 34 are Fibonacci numbers)

    Also 6800 – 6798.387626 = 1.612374 (99.65% of Phi).

    The lunar apsidal cycle is about 1.6 days more than 3230 days.
    NASA: it takes 8.85 years (3231.6 days) for the line of apsides to make one complete revolution with respect to the stars. [360 / 0.11140° per day = 3231.5978]

    3230 = 17 x 19 x 10 or 34 x 19 x 5 or 1615 x 2
    The sum of the lunar and apsidal cycles is about 6800 + 3230 days = 10030 days = 34 x 295 days.

    364 (13 x 28) anomalistic months = 10029.856 days
    So the LNC and LAC sum to about 364 anomalistic months.
    42 x 364 (15288) anomalistic months = 14265 synodic months = 1023 full moon cycles (15288 – 14265)

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    7.854676679 = 18.61336897 / 2.369718033
    ~= (φ^4) + 1
    = 7.854101966

    6.854676679 = 18.61336897 / 2.715426247
    ~= φ^4
    = 6.854101966

    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 27.3215823630557 is 28.095553
    (28.095553)*(27.32158236) / (28.095553 – 27.32158236) = 991.7882264
    991.7882264 / 365.242189 = 2.715426247

    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 27.212221 is 28.095553
    (28.095553)*(27.212221) / (28.095553 – 27.212221) = 865.5210016
    865.5210016 / 365.242189 = 2.369718033

    (2.715426247)*(2.369718033) / (2.715426247 – 2.369718033) = 18.61336897

    2.715426247 (φ^4) = 18.61180838 ~ = 18.61336897
    2.369718033 ((φ^4) + 1) = 18.61200706 ~ = 18.61336897

    What OB has pointed out is certainly provocative.

    “4.236, which plays […] a profound role in knot theory”

    φ^3 = 4.236067977
    2(φ^3) = 8.472135955

    (11.862615)*(29.447498) / (11.862615 + 29.447498) = 8.456145629 = 1/(J+S)

    (φ/Φ)/(J+S) = (φ^2)/(J+S) = 22.13847667
    1/JEV = 1/(3V-5E+2J) = 22.13929985

    φ^5 = 11.09016994
    2(φ^5) = 22.18033989

    Note that it’s off by exactly an amount consistent with the Hale Core Model …which it needs to balance the solar system. Perhaps a sharp mind with the capacity for profound generalized awareness will perceive an analogous balance for the Earth-Moon system.

  10. oldbrew says:

    PV: I’ll put up a post with some other Moon-related numbers in the next few days and perhaps we’ll see if there’s any link to the above. Possibly not, as the idea behind the (pending) post came before any of this recent stuff.

    Also remember we see a similar numerical arrangement with the full moon cycle and the lunar apsidal cycle.
    13 LAC = ~102 FMC
    102 = 34 x 3
    34 / 13 = a Fibonacci equivalent of Phi²

    21 LNC = ~165 QBO
    165 = 55 x 3
    55 / 21 = a Fibonacci equivalent of Phi²

    3,13,21,34 and 55 are all Fibonacci numbers.

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, even if this stuff is the holy grail I don’t think I can ever get into it (anything more than distractedly & peripherally) again. It cannot be a priority even if that means I nearly miss something profound. I’ll continue monitoring casually though. At this point I’m still not contemplating deleting all of my files and declaring that I’ve moved on, but that is certainly looking more and more like a possibility given that the prospects for integrity in climate discussion are very nearly absolute zero due to the widespread corruption. (I’m practical.) On the other hand, things could change and if that happens I may (no guarantees) cross that bridge when it appears. Regards.

  12. oldbrew says:

    Giant snowballs appear on Russian beach in Siberia
    5 November 2016

  13. oldbrew says:

    The Reg: Dark matter? More like diet matter: Super-light axions may solve universe’s mass riddle

    ‘Particles up to ten billion times lighter than electrons’

  14. Chaeremon says:

    Thrust in the absence of propellant, investigated by NASA,

    “Leaked NASA paper shows the ‘impossible’ EM Drive really does work
    Did we just achieve fuel-less propulsion? … 7 NOV 2016”

    Speculations are a trip to Mars in just 70 days 🙂

  15. oldbrew says:

    Facebook won’t force its belief in renewable energy on users

    Well, that’s a relief 😐

    But the thought police aren’t far way it seems…

    During a later Q&A session, Weihl did acknowledge a possibility that Facebook might change its modus operandi in a way that could benefit proponents of sustainability.

    Facebook allows its users to report on inappropriate postings and Weihl appeared to open the door slightly that content such as climate change denial might be deemed inappropriate at some point. [bold added]

    “Climate is extremely important; it’s the issue of the day. Being able to flag factually incorrect content could be useful and a feature that people could find valuable. It could change people’s behaviour and it’s something worth thinking about and seeing some experiments on.”

    BSR Member Spotlight: Bill Weihl, Sustainability Director, Facebook

  16. oldbrew says:

    50-Million-Year-Old Redwood Chunk Found in Diamond Mine
    By Megan Gannon, Live Science Contributor | September 21, 2012 02:20pm

    Since the fossil is in such good condition, it gives scientists a better picture of the region’s climate in the early Eocene. By measuring the ratio of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes (atoms of the same element with different numbers of neutrons) in the wood’s well-preserved cellulose, the researchers found that western Canadian subarctic temperatures were 21 to 30 degrees F (12 to 17 degrees C) warmer and four times wetter than they are today. [bold added]

    H/T SIS:

  17. pg sharrow says:

    perhaps that diamond mine was 1,000 miles further south 50 million years ago…pg

  18. pg sharrow says:

    @Tallbloke; Nigel must be pleased, Brexit II, Trump wins big! and republican congress as well. The Elites are in fear, the worlds equity markets are in freefall at the moment.
    The next 2 months will be in great turmoil.

    This is not the end of the world! This is the beginning of the new age…pg

  19. oldbrew says:

    Silent but deadly: the Trump effect on COP22

    The climate change crowd know they’re in big trouble now.

  20. oldbrew says:

    Supermoon: largest full moon since 1948 due on Nov. 14th.
    [short video]

  21. oldbrew says:

    Prof. Erik Verlinde, renowned expert in string theory at the University of Amsterdam and the Delta Institute for Theoretical Physics, published a new research paper today in which he expands his groundbreaking views on the nature of gravity.

    No need for dark matter

    According to Erik Verlinde, there is no need to add a mysterious dark matter particle to the theory [of gravity]. In a new paper, which appeared today on the ArXiv preprint server, Verlinde shows how his theory of gravity accurately predicts the velocities by which the stars rotate around the center of the Milky Way, as well as the motion of stars inside other galaxies.

    “We have evidence that this new view of gravity actually agrees with the observations, ” says Verlinde. “At large scales, it seems, gravity just doesn’t behave the way Einstein’s theory predicts.”

    Read more at:

  22. oldbrew says:

    Andrew Bolt laughs at anti-Trump crowd ‘spitting the dummy’

    How to save 23 Billion USD each year

    The steady drip, drip, drip of information leaking out about the fraud involved with “Climate Change/Global Warming” is building into a reservoir of facts that totally debunk President Obama’s pet cause.

    SFC: Is Trump’s victory game over for climate?

    “A third of the people here are walking around like zombies, like the walking dead, not sure what to do,” said UC Berkeley Professor Daniel Kammen, speaking from Morocco. [ = COP 22 climate conf.] 😂
    H/T Climate Depot

  23. oldbrew says:

    Believe it when you see it…

    Al Gore Says He Hopes to Work With Donald Trump to Fight Climate Change

    H/T Lubos Motl

  24. oldbrew says:

    NOAA sort of calls a winter La Niña, which was considered an outsider earlier in the year.

    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

    Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.

  25. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, I also noticed an MSM La Nina announcement. It’s comical that they waited until after the election. The entanglement of weather with politics is official.

  26. oldbrew says:

    PV: the effect of Trump’s election on the politicised climate scene is going to be interesting.

    Daily Mail talks up La Niña…
    La Niña is back! Forecasters find first evidence of phenomenon that could cause chaos with winter weather

    Read more:

  27. oldbrew says:

    More evidence that dark matter theory has lost its way?

    Dark matter may be hiding in a hidden sector

  28. oldbrew says:

    Ge, Quansheng, Zheng, Jingyun, Hao, Zhixin, H., Liu, Yang and Li, Mingqi. 2016. Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years. Journal of Geographic Sciences 26: 827-854.

    The five Chinese scientists determined that there were four significant warm periods and four significant cold periods over the past two millennia. And of most interest to us today, they report that “the intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years.”

  29. oldbrew says:

    Saturn also has a semi-annual oscillation.

    There is another significant meteorological phenomenon above the planet’s equator and which could affect the winds: the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), which occurs about 50 km above the cloud deck and which causes the temperatures to oscillate and the winds to change direction and strength from East to West. And if the complexity of Saturn’s equatorial meteorology were not enough, it is at these latitudes where the so-called Great White Spot developed three times, in 1876, 1933 and 1990; this is a gigantic storm that manages to go all the way round the planet and which has only been seen on six occasions during the last one hundred and fifty years. The study by the Planetary Sciences Group reports that this gigantic storm is another of the agents of change in the equatorial jet stream.

    All these phenomena occur on a different scale to a certain extent on our own planet. So by studying them in this way in other worlds in totally different conditions we can make progress in understanding and modelling them,” he concluded. [bold added]

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB wrote: “PV: the effect of Trump’s election on the politicised climate scene is going to be interesting.”

    On the contrary, it’s a nuisance and distraction.

    Let’s not be naive: A single election result isn’t going to cure the almost incomprehensible degree of corruption in American politics. I suspect there’s exactly a 0% chance that Trump will do the 2 things that would really matter for the climate discussion. He may well do a bunch of remotely peripheral things that people cheer, but I’m confident that he’s insufficiently well-oriented in the climate discussion to distinguish the real devils from the decoys. He’ll screw it up because he doesn’t know the file well enough. He’s going to be getting a lot of bad advice from corrupt people. That is my prediction and you can quote me on it. You can’t find honesty and integrity anywhere in the American climate discussion. It’s a wasteland of corruption. It’s reprehensibly naive to think anything good and positive is going to come out of that darkness. I suggest commitment to sobriety.

  31. oldbrew says:

    The ‘supermoon‘ over Cheshire from a pocket camera.

    ‘The Moon will not be this close to Earth again until 25 November 2034.’

    In other words, one Saros period ahead.

  32. oldbrew says:

    More PC nonsense brings Stockholm to its knees…

    ‘Gender-Equal Snow Ploughing’ Plunges Stockholm into Chaos

  33. oldbrew says:

    The Climate Expert Ink Blot Test

    You know you are a climate expert if you see the red patch on this map, but not purple patch.

  34. oldbrew says:

    The Fact and Fiction of the NASA EmDrive Paper Leak
    Written by DANIEL OBERHAUS
    November 14, 2016

    “Absent a convincing physical explanation that doesn’t fly in the face of well-known principles of physics, you should hold in abeyance any judgment as to whether or not [the NASA results are] real,” said Woodward. “This stuff is much harder to do and get right than almost anybody who has not actually been in the trenches doing it really appreciates. The odds against anything being real in this business are very high.”

  35. oldbrew says:

    It’s Time to Stop Spending Taxpayer Dollars on Elon Musk and Cronyism

    The American people are being taken on a ride by SolarCity, Tesla, and Musk. The ride is fueled by a cult of personality in Musk. And it costs billions of taxpayer dollars as he promises us not only the moon, but to harness the power of the sun and send us all to Mars.

    ALL to Mars? Count me out.

  36. oldbrew says:

    High-power satellite could “revolutionize” weather forecasting
    • November 18, 2016

    The first in a new generation of high-power GOES weather satellites, the centerpieces of an $11 billion upgrade to the nation’s forecasting and weather observation infrastructure, is poised for launch Saturday from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Equipped with six state-of-the-art instruments, including a powerful camera that will provide near real-time high-resolution imagery, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects the new satellites to revolutionize forecasting over the next 20 years, saving lives and and helping to protect property. “NOAA’s GOES-R satellite, with its advanced technologies, will be a game changer for weather forecasting and climate science for many years to come,” said Stephen Volz, NOAA associate administrator for satellite and information services.

    “NOAA’s GOES-R will scan the sky five times faster than the current GOES system with four times the spatial resolution and with three times the spectral bands,” said Joe Pica, Joe Pica, director of the National Weather Service Office of Observations. “This means we’ll have better quality data at high resolution far more often than we do today.”

  37. oldbrew says:

    Green Elites, Trumped: The planet will benefit if the climate movement is purged of its rottenness, by Holman Jenkins. [Wall Street Journal]

    Hysterical, in both senses of the word, is the reaction of greens like Paul Krugman and the Sierra Club to last week’s election. “The planet is in danger,” fretted Tom Steyer, the California hedge funder who spends his billions trying to be popular with green voters. Uh huh. …

    What a Trump election will do is mostly dismantle a green gravy train powered by moral vanity that contributes nothing to the public welfare.

  38. oldbrew says:

    ‘Scary Headlines About Thames Estuary Sea Levels Don’t Stand Up To Scrutiny’

    This could be a new series: ‘Scary Headlines About [anything to do with climate] Don’t Stand Up To Scrutiny’ – because they never do.

  39. oldbrew says:

    Much ado about nothing – at great public expense (plus an extra day)…

    UN Delays Global Warming Treaty 2 Years As Trump Takes Over

    UN delegates came away with little more than a pledge to reconvene by December 2018 to write rules for the global warming agreement despite extending their two-week summit in Marrakech, Morocco an extra day.

    Does anyone believe Trump will accept the ‘rules’ they plan to write?

  40. oldbrew says:

    Hiding the decline – hurricanes edition…

    “This is all part of a financial scheme,” says [Marc] Morano. “If every bad weather event can have new metrics that make them unprecedented and a record, then they will declare it fossil-fuel-‘poisoned weather.'”

    That should please the climate snowflakes who see Hollywood-style disaster every time the weather turns a bit nasty.

  41. oldbrew says:

    Japan earthquake: 7.3 magnitude quake strikes off Fukushima – tsunami warning issued

    Update: The U.S. Geological Survey initially put Tuesday’s quake at a magnitude of 7.3 but downgraded it to 6.9.

    9:28pm Tsunami warning for waves of three metres (10 feet)

    Yes, that Fukushima.

    9:56pm Quake caused buildings to shake in Tokyo

    Via Twitter…

  42. oldbrew says:

    Is the Supermoon responsible for record low Polar ice formation?
    Posted on November 21, 2016 by Clive Best

  43. oldbrew says:

    Why was Stonehenge built? Newly-discovered Neolithic complex close to the stone circle could hold the answer

    The complex was built about 5,650 years ago, around 3650 BC, more than 1,000 years before the stones of Stonehenge were erected.

    The 656 foot (200 metre) diameter complex consists of around 3,000 feet (950 metres) of ditches and is the first major early Neolithic monument discovered in the Stonehenge area for more than a century.

    It was discovered in a village called Larkhill in Wiltshire, just 1.5 miles (2.4 km) north east of the famous site.

    Read more:

  44. oldbrew says:

    Scientists find huge reduction in African dust plume led to more Saharan monsoons 11,000 years ago
    November 23, 2016

    Read more at:

    This might be relevant to the dust theory of ice ages proposed by Ralph Ellis here:

  45. A C Osborn says:

    Tallbloke, have you any idea why this article about Ingrid Detter de Frankopan has not been picked up by more of the MSM or more Brexiteers?

    She says the UK does not need to invoke Article 50 to leave the EU.

  46. oldbrew says:

    The Paris agreement was never the solution to climate change

    By Bjorn Lomborg

    To keep temperature rises below 2C, we have to reduce CO₂ emissions by about 6,000 Gt across the century. [according to some people and some poorly performing models]

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) estimates that even if every country were to make every single carbon cut suggested in the Paris Treaty, to the fullest extent possible, CO2 emissions would only be cut – provided there were no carbon leakage – by 56 Gt by 2030. [but then there’s the Trump factor]

    This means that even in an implausibly optimistic, best-case scenario, the Paris Treaty leaves 99 per cent of the problem in place. [if there is such a problem that is]

  47. oldbrew says:

    David Rose: Stunning new data indicates El Nino drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions

    Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C
    Comes amid mounting evidence run of record temperatures about to end
    The fall, revealed by Nasa satellites, has been caused by the end of El Nino

    Read more:

    It’s a bit more than ‘suggesting’ it’s not man-made, I would suggest.

    ‘Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C’

    They would have gone down anyway at this time of year as the majority of land is in the northern hemisphere where the days are getting shorter, but 1C sounds a lot in a short time.

  48. A C Osborn says:

    Oldbrew are they actual temps or Anomalies?
    Because if they are Anomalies it will not be seasonal variation.

  49. oldbrew says:

    ACO: good point, sometimes it’s difficult to sort out the facts from the spin 😉

    The Mail quotes David Whitehouse:
    ‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.
    The data clearly shows El Nino for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said.

    Read more:

  50. oldbrew says:

    Europe’s Mars Lander Became Large Smoking Crater Due To Computer Glitch

    Read more:

    There’s a scapegoat out there somewhere 😐

  51. oldbrew says:

    BOM: The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 20 November is −5.8; within the neutral ENSO range. SOI values have been within the neutral range since mid-October following a brief period when they exceeded La Niña thresholds.

  52. oldbrew says:

    Ron Clutz: Man Made Warming in Iceland

    It’s easy when the data is ‘man-made’ 😐

  53. oldbrew says:

    ‘Diamond-age’ of power generation as nuclear batteries developed
    November 27, 2016

    You get a weak battery that could last for more than 5000 years.
    [Link has a youtube video]

  54. oldbrew says:

    Five stages of climate grief

    President Trump could help – and force climate alarmists to answer questions they’ve ignored

  55. Paul Vaughan says:

    This is an absolutely unacceptable, incomprehensibly unethical attack on the ability of low- and middle-income humans to afford staple food:

    It isn’t sensible expending time and energy trying to reason with an insane person …or in this case an insane state. This event very sharply clarifies a reduction in the pool of possible effective strategies for dealing with the relentless insanity of intolerable Californian harassment.

    I’m putting “Protect Dairy” on the list …so there are now 3 keys.

  56. Q. Daniels says:

    I’ll just drop this here.

  57. Paul Vaughan says:

    Alberta Premier […] said that after “a long dark night” […] “finally seeing some morning light.”

    “We’re getting a chance to sell to China and other new markets at better prices. We’re getting a chance to reduce our dependence on one market, and therefore to be more economically independent.

  58. oldbrew says:

    Blackout: the sequel

    Reactor 1 (600 MW) of the Torness nuclear power station in Scotland tripped at 09:00 on 22nd November whilst reactor 2 was on half load for refuelling. Since then Scotland has been dependent on electricity imports from England for every hour of every day peaking at 2552 MW at 20:00 on 23 Nov as the mercury plunged towards -5˚C. At that point, Scotland was dependent on England for half of its electricity. In the past, Scotland was always 100% reliant on home-grown power.

    Covered in wind turbines and ‘dependent on England for half of its electricity.’ Nice one Scotland 😐

  59. oldbrew says:

    Date: 01/12/16 Nic Lewis, Climate Etc

    Nic Lewis says: Sensibly, Knutson et al. effectively discount explanations of the early 21st century warming slowdown based on misstated forcing changes, missing temperature data in warming regions such as the Arctic, and the like. Instead they “explore how long an early 21st century hiatus or slowdown could last, assuming a strong internally generated cooling superimposed upon ongoing anthropogenic warming.”

    NB ‘internally’ = ‘naturally’ here

    This is where the logic goes pear-shaped: ‘assuming a strong internally generated cooling superimposed upon ongoing anthropogenic warming’

    But if ‘strong internally generated cooling’ is accepted as real, then why would ‘strong internally generated warming’ not be equally likely to occur at a different time? A bit like El Niño and La Niña for example 😉

    PS I’m taking ‘internally’ to mean ‘naturally’ here

  60. oldbrew says:

    Where did Saudia Arabia’s giant Ghawar oil field come from?

    Paper: ‘Recent research shows the existence of a major event of global plate (or even whole-mantle) motion during the Jurassic that was hitherto unknown to the earth science community and can be referred to as the Jurassic polar shift (Kent and Irving, 2010; Muttoni et al., 2013; Kent et al., 2015). When the Jurassic polar shift is taken into account to describe global paleogeography, the rapid trans-zonal plate motion that produced the source-reservoir-seal sequence at Ghawar and elsewhere in the world can be adequately explained.’

    That would kill off fossil fuel theories.

  61. Sphene says:

    Also from the paper:

    “Organic matter that eventually transforms into oil and gas with burial and maturation can originate in abundance in sedimentary basins along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which straddles about ±5° from the equator… due to high levels of nutrients upwelled from deep waters or in run-off from adjoining continents onto shelf areas.”

     “However, carbonate sands for a reservoir and especially an anhydritic seal are more likely formed at tropical latitudes (~5–30°) where evaporation exceeds precipitation…”

    ” In other words, Ghawar traveled within 15 million years from the oil-forming productive ITCZ to the seal-forming arid tropics of the southern hemisphere.”

    “…Ghawar drifted back, albeit more slowly, across the ITCZ from the arid tropics of the southern hemisphere to the arid tropics of the northern hemisphere… This provided a second time window in the Cretaceous for the formation of oil that is indeed also widespread in the Persian Gulf region.”

  62. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB wrote: “PS I’m taking ‘internally’ to mean ‘naturally’ here”

    They start to sound funny when their conceptualization gets stubbornly philosophically tangled in perception limited by a single compartmentalization. When you see anyone start going on about “internal” you know the brain and vision is anchored in and enslaved by a single basin of attraction. They haven’t understood the most basic things about the solar-terrestrial weave and the solar cycle length differintegral. The academic culture of rewarding administrative conformity explains how institutions accumulate so many of these people who just can’t unlock their minds for long enough to find a basin of attraction just over the hill with higher potential. They don’t explore. They only see the hill so they don’t go there. They do not have the ability to discover the well on the other side of the hill because their rigid algorithms say absolutely no to hill-climbing. Paradox is beyond their capacity. They are not open to exploring the possibility of its existence.

  63. oldbrew says:

    Germany tells World Bank to quit funding fossil fuels

    The World Bank could offer Germany the same advice but that wouldn’t go down too well as the whole country would grind to a halt. So once again it’s ‘do as we say, not as we do’ from a Western power.

  64. oldbrew says:

    The ‘man-made global warming’ problem, if there even is one, is vastly over-rated and current ‘solutions’ won’t do anything significant anyway, apart from burn through money.

    ‘Simply letting global warming happen and dealing with its effects may be a lot cheaper than decarbonizing the global economy, according to a new report by the Manhattan Institute.’

  65. oldbrew says:

    Four major cities move to ban diesel vehicles by 2025

    Good luck if they ban diesel trucks, buses and taxis from their centres.

  66. p.g.sharrow says:

    There ain’t nothing in space!:
    Additional proof of the concept that space is packed full of something…pg

  67. oldbrew says:

    Report: NASA’s AIM observes early noctilucent ice clouds over Antarctica

    This year, AIM saw the start of noctilucent cloud season on Nov. 17, 2016 – tying with the earliest start yet in the AIM record of the Southern Hemisphere. Scientists say this corresponds to an earlier seasonal change at lower altitudes. Winter to summer changes in the Antarctic lower atmosphere sparked a complex series of responses throughout the atmosphere – one of which is an earlier noctilucent cloud season. In the Southern Hemisphere, AIM has observed seasons beginning anywhere from Nov. 17 to Dec. 16.

    Read more at:

  68. oldbrew says:

    SIS recommends having a look at an ‘alternative’ sea level theory.

    Geologist Roger Higgs has a presentation in pdf format challenging IPCC orthodoxy on historical sea levels. He points out that IPCC does not use any geologists in preparing its reports.

    Abstract (short version):
    England and Wales excel for studying 2-0ka eustasy, being stable (c.1mm/y GIA subsidence) and rich in published archaeological evidence for sea-level (SL) change, e.g. buried Roman structures reveal a c.3m Roman fall preceded a c.5m pre-Norman rise, while many Norman towns and castles have a seadock stranded a few meters above today’s high-tide line. SL high- and lowstand values deduced here correlate (and notably scale) to warm and cold peaks on Ljungqvist’s (2010) Northern Hemisphere temperature curve: Roman Warm Period (peak at c.160CE), highstand of +5m (rel. to present mean SL); Dark Ages Cold Period (DAP; c.530) +2m lowstand; Medieval Warm Period (MWP; c.950) +7m high; Little Ice Age (LIA; c.1690) -30cm low. Similar meter-scale interglacial SL oscillations are likewise known from the previous interglacial, MIS5e. Scarcity of reported geological evidence for the proposed MWP 7m SL high may reflect (1) brevity (<20y?) precluding reef- or bench formation, (2) coalescence with MIS5e raised-shore features, and (3) proneness of raised intertidal encrusting fauna (barnacles etc.) to dissolution by rain. Contrary consensus that 2-0ka SL change is minor (<30cm) is largely based on saltmarsh core dates that point to continuous 2-0ka peat growth. However, a kink in all core age-depth graphs (linear trend of C14-dated samples is <50% as steep as post-C14 trend) suggests C14-age exaggeration by an unknown estuarine reservoir effect (brackish saprobes fix CO2 released by older, deeper plant decay?); projecting the post-C14 line gives core-bottom ages 5cm/y by 2050, then probably >10cm/y for decades, driven by polar ice-sheet surge once the buttressing ice shelves melt. Cutting mankind’s emissions will not reduce the imminent natural 5m (min.) SL rise.

    He does admit there are no obvious signs that a sudden large increase in the rate of sea level rise is happening or is about to do so.

  69. Paul Vaughan says:

    Our beautiful Sun is pushing the winds of change…

  70. oldbrew says:
  71. oldbrew says:

    Jo Nova: Green leader South Australia gets energy security the diesel way

    Irrigators and farmers are buying diesel generators to secure their power supply, as price and stability issues continue to plague South Australia’s energy grid, industry experts have said.

    That’s how it goes when your leaders are obsessed with unreliable renewables.

    “When it comes to energy security, South Australia is the canary in the coal mine and the canary is looking pretty sick right now,” he [Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg] told The [Adelaide] Advertiser.

  72. oldbrew says:

    Mike Hulme: “Deadline-ism”, points of no return and stories of the sky falling in are not the stories we need to hear.

    Because they’re fairy stories, as favoured by Guardian writers.

  73. oldbrew says:

    A brief history of climate scepticism.

    We trusted them

    Leaked memo outlines Trump’s energy agenda

    Here are the policies the memo outlines:

    1. Withdraw from the Paris Agreement

    2. Increase federal oil and natural gas leasing

    3. Lift the coal lease moratorium

    4. Give states greater say on energy leases on federal lands

    5. Expedite approvals of LNG export terminals

    6. Scrap the Clean Power Plan

    7. Reconsider the ‘endangerment finding’

    8. Move forward with pipeline infrastructure

    9. Take closer look at environmental impact of wind energy

    10. Reduce energy subsidies

    11. Amend the Renewable Fuel Standard

    12. Challenge Obama’s definition of ‘waters of the United States’

    13. Relax federal fuel economy standards

    14. End use of social cost of carbon in federal rulemakings

    ‘It’s worth mentioning that the document is nominally an analysis of Trump’s statements on the campaign trail’

  74. oldbrew says:

    Propulsion expert warns NASA’s ‘impossible drive’ results could be caused by a ‘mundane error’ in experiments

    But, while the expert argues that there’s a ‘slim’ probability that the results will hold up in further investigation, he also notes that ‘it’s not zero.’

    Read more:

    He has to cover his back, just in case 😉

  75. Corona hole effect

    M 8.0 – SOLOMON ISLANDS – 2016-12-08 17:38:47 UTC
    M 6.5 – OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – 2016-12-08 14:49:47 UTC
    M 6.0 – NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA – 2016-12-08 05:15:03 UTC

    See time UTC

  76. oldbrew says:


    ‘Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are developing plans to reshape Energy Department programs, help keep aging nuclear plants online and identify staff who played a role in promoting President Barack Obama’s climate agenda.’

    ‘Two Energy Department employees who spoke on condition of anonymity confirmed the questionnaire and said agency staff were unsettled by the Trump team’s information request.’

    ‘The Energy Information Administration, the department’s statistical arm, is the subject of at least 15 questions that probe its staffing, data and analytical decisions, including whether its forecasts underestimate future U.S. oil and gas production. EIA staff also are asked how they account for added costs to transmit and back-up renewable power.

    The Trump transition advisers also want to know in what instances the EIA’s independence was most challenged over the past eight years.’

    Shake-out as well as shake-up?

  77. tchannon says:

    Michele, that seems to add to the correlation between large quakes and space events.

  78. oldbrew says:

    Report: Cosmic dust grains found on city rooftops for the first time

    City cosmic dust was found to be larger than previously recovered particles, measuring around 0.3 millimetres across instead of the more usual 0.01 millimetres. In addition the dust found in cities contained fewer feather-like crystals than the much more ancient particles from Antarctica.

    The differences may be linked to changes in the orbits of planets such as the Earth and Mars over millions of years, Genge says. Resulting gravitational disturbances may have influenced the trajectory of the particles as they hurtled through space. This in turn would have an effect on the speed at which they slam into the Earth’s atmosphere and heat up.

    “This find is important because if we are to look at fossil cosmic dust collected from ancient rocks to reconstruct a geological history of our solar system, then we need to understand how this dust is changed by the continuous pull of the planets,” Genge says. [bold added]

    Paper: An urban collection of modern-day large micrometeorites: Evidence for variations in the extraterrestrial dust flux through the Quaternary
    First published online December 2016, doi: 10.1130/G38352.1


  79. tallbloke says:

    Michele: How often do we get Earth facing coronal holes with no increase in seismicity?

  80. oldbrew says:

    AEMO’s third report highlights wind power link to South Australia blackout

    While tornadoes were found to have taken down three transmission lines ahead of the blackout, the report suggests the system could have continued operating.

    Instead it was the loss of power from the state’s wind farms that is thought to be one of the primary causes of the event.

  81. @ Rog

    A possible mechanism electrical ….

    Their case study and superposed method analysis of the variations of the high-level clouds which
    have been shown to be a good representation of mid-latitude cyclones, confirm that gravity waves generated by pulsed ionospheric convection (auroral electrojet) as a result of high speed solar wind induced MHD waves coupling to the magnetosphere–ionosphere system, are transmitted to the lower atmosphere and alter the atmospheric circulation.
    Therefore, a step by step schematic scenario of solar activity effects on seismic activity could include the following e lements:
    • pressure pulses associated with high speed solar wind streams or CME driven shocks compress the magnetosphere,
    • the auroral electrojet strengthens,
    • the generated atmospheric gravity waves are transmitted downwards,
    • westward zonal winds strengthen,
    • surface air pressure changes,
    • the pressure balance on tectonic plates is disrupted and
    • if enough tension is accumulated, an earthquake is triggered.

    Click to access IJG20120500007_48587481.pdf

  82. oldbrew says:

    Shifting sands of the climate debate
    Posted on December 12, 2016
    by Judith Curry

    Commenter: So when do you take over at NOAA Judith?

  83. oldbrew says:

    CNN: Record Winter Cold ‘Gripping Eastern Two-Thirds’ Of United States

    ‘Across the United States, 76 locations have shattered their daily record cold high temperatures for December since the beginning of the month. That means some towns saw their coldest December day ever.The bad news is that it’s going to get even colder for the rest of the week. Below-freezing temperatures are expected for 7 percent of the country — in fact, most of the country will see the coldest air since last winter.’

  84. oldbrew says:

    Researchers estimate more accurately the short-term solar irradiance
    Date: December 15, 2016
    Source: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
    Summary: Researchers predict with minor error rate the short-term Global Solar Irradiance (GSI) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).

    Per Strandberg also uses neural networks:

    He says: ‘I have identified these two basic underlining forces for ENSO by creating and utilizing an ANN I’ve built. ANN stands for Artificial Neural Network and is a pattern recognition technique and is a form of Artificial Intelligence which is used in many different types of applications.’

  85. oldbrew says:

    Microlensing study suggests most common outer planets likely Neptune-mass
    Date: December 15, 2016
    Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

    A new statistical study of planets found by a technique called gravitational microlensing suggests that Neptune-mass worlds are likely the most common type of planet to form in the icy outer realms of planetary systems.

    ‘The results imply that cold Neptune-mass worlds are likely to be the most common types of planets beyond the so-called snow line, the point where water remained frozen during planetary formation. In the solar system, the snow line is thought to have been located at about 2.7 times Earth’s mean distance from the sun, placing it in the middle of the main asteroid belt today.’

  86. oldbrew says:

    Study sheds new insights into global warming ‘hiatus’

    Where’s the missing heat?

    While Yan said it’s difficult to reach complete consensus on such a complex topic, a thorough review of the literature and much discussion and debate revealed a number of key points on which these leading scientists concur:

    — Natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming on decadal time scales.

    — Improved understanding of how the ocean distributes and redistributes heat will help the scientific community better monitor Earth’s energy budget. Earth’s energy budget is a complex calculation of how much energy enters our climate system from the sun and what happens to it: how much is stored by the land, ocean or atmosphere.

    “To better monitor Earth’s energy budget and its consequences, the ocean is most important to consider because the amount of heat it can store is extremely large when compared to the land or atmospheric capacity,” said Yan.

    According to the paper, “arguably, ocean heat content–from the surface to the seafloor–might be a more appropriate measure of how much our planet is warming.”

  87. oldbrew says:

    Greenwash wearing thin in Germany?

    NTZ: Experts: Green-Preaching Germany To Miss 2020 Climate Targets By A Mile… “An Illusion”!

  88. oldbrew says:

    Someone linked to this on Realclimate 😎

    American Liberals Sneaking Across Border to Canada: Crisis in the North

    ‘When liberals are caught, they’re sent back across the border, often wailing loudly that they fear retribution from conservatives. Rumors have been circulating about plans being made to build re-education camps where liberals will be forced to drink domestic beer and study the Constitution.’

    [Note: written 2 years before the Trump election victory]

  89. oldbrew says:

    Risk of Christmas electricity blackouts next year, warn MPs

    When are they going to work out that the Climate Change Act only leads to problems not solutions?

  90. oldmanK says:

    Cat & mouse or russian roulette?

  91. oldbrew says:

    Satellites help discover a jet stream in the Earth’s core

    More information: An accelerating high-latitude jet in Earth’s core, Nature Geoscience,

    From the abstract:
    We find that the jet has increased in magnitude by a factor of three over the period 2000–2016 to about 40 km yr−1, and is now much stronger than typical large-scale flows inferred for the core. We suggest that the current accelerating phase may be part of a longer-term fluctuation of the jet causing both eastward and westward movement of magnetic features over historical periods, and may contribute to recent changes in torsional-wave activity and the rotation direction of the inner core. [bold added]

  92. oldbrew says:

    Tuesday, December 20, 2016
    Solar activity, ocean cycles, & water vapor explain 98% of climate change since 1900, NOT CO2!

    Climate Change Drivers
    by Dan Pangburn, MSME


    Thermalization and the complete dominance of water vapor in reverse-thermalization explain why atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has no significant effect on climate. Reported average global temperature (AGT) since before 1900 is accurately (98% match with measured trend) explained by a combination of ocean cycles, sunspot number anomaly time-integral and increased atmospheric water vapor.

    Extract from text:

    Water vapor has more ‘opportunities’ for emission because there are about 35 times as many water vapor molecules in the atmosphere below about 5 km as there are CO2 molecules (See Figure 2) and each water vapor molecule has hundreds of emission bands compared to only one band for each CO2 molecule. Most, if not all, of the photons emitted by the water vapor molecules are at wavelengths different from the narrow band CO2 molecules can absorb. Effectively, energy absorbed by CO2 is re-routed to space via water vapor.

  93. oldbrew says:

    The Guardian is wrong about the economy, the environment and the human race
    By Tim Worstall

    But we already knew that 😉

  94. oldbrew says:

    This is a laugh…

    Let climate sceptics have their moment, it will not last

    ‘Christmas came early for the world’s greying tribe of climate sceptics.

    They’re on the cusp of the best and perhaps last chance they will get to comprehensively wreck efforts to limit temperature rises.’

    You get the idea – grumpy alarmists trotting out the usual empty propaganda 😎

    No sign of that fossil fuel support grant yet :/

  95. oldbrew says:

    Researchers solve mystery of historic 1952 London fog and current Chinese haze

  96. oldbrew says:

    Letters reveal Trump rants against Scottish offshore windfarm

    “With the reckless installation of these monsters, you will single-handedly have done more damage to Scotland than virtually any event in Scottish history,” he wrote in one letter [to then First Minister Alex Salmond].

  97. oldbrew says:

    Evidence of Higher-Order Solar Periodicities in China Temperature Record

    Tiwari et al. report that their analysis revealed “statistically significant periodicities of order ~900 ± 50, ~480 ± 20, ~340 ± 10, ~190 ± 10 and ~130 ± 5 years, which closely match with the known higher-order solar cycles.” And they add that “these periodicities are also similar to quasi-periodicities reported in the climate records of sedimentary cores of subarctic and subpolar regions of North America and the North Pacific, thus attesting to the global signature of solar signals in temperature variability.”

  98. RJ Salvador says:

    From Space Weather

    “Including Dec. 24th, 25th, and 26th, 2016 has had 31 ‘spotless days’–a whole month’s worth. We haven’t had this many blank suns in a single year since 2010 (51 days). This is a sign that the sunspot cycle is crashing toward a new Solar Minimum.

    There are many misconceptions about Solar Minimum. One holds that auroras vanish when sunspots disappear. Christmas Day 2016 was proof that the opposite is true. Without a hint of a sunspot on the solar disk, intense auroras raged around the Arctic Circle on Dec. 25th. What caused the luminous outburst? An enormous hole in the sun’s atmosphere directed a stream of solar wind toward Earth, sparking a week-long display that is still underway. Such atmospheric holes are common during Solar Minimum, which is a fine time to see Arctic auroras.

    Many people think space weather becomes dull or stops altogether during Solar Minimum. In fact, space weather changes in interesting ways.

    For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses.

    This allows space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth; galactic cosmic rays penetrate our atmosphere with relative ease. Yes, Solar Minimum is coming … but it won’t be dull.”

  99. oldbrew says:

    Notorious Ocean Current Is Far Stronger Than Previously Thought

    The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the only ocean current to circle the planet and the largest wind-driven current on Earth. It’s also 30% more powerful than scientists realized.

    GRL link to abstract

    Quote: This new measurement is 30% larger than the canonical value often used as the benchmark for global circulation and climate models.

  100. RoswellJohn says:

    Cionco and Soon have a new paper on 1612.08380v1. Short-Term Orbital Forcing: A Quasi-Review and a Reappraisal of Realistic Boundary Conditions for Climate Modeling. Very interesting

  101. oldbrew says:

    Thanks RoswellJohn. Link to paper…

    Click to access 1612.08380v1.pdf

    Quote: ‘We found errors up to 5% in daily insolation quantities, which correspond to an absolute difference of 2.5 W m−2 in W calculations, which are significantly larger than the theoretically expected error (i.e., 0.01 W m−2 reported in Berger et al., 2010) in the calculation of W.’

    Climate model errors that is.

  102. oldbrew says:

    Concentric rings found in the debris disk of a young nearby star

  103. oldbrew says:

    Links between the solar wind and Earth’s weather/climate systems…

    Effects on winter circulation of short and long term solar wind changes [Dec. 2014]

    — Day-to-day changes in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations correlate with solar wind speed and relativistic electron precipitation.
    — Interannual changes are similarly correlated.
    — A connection via the global atmospheric electric circuit and cloud microphysical changes is suggested.

  104. oldmanK says:

    Re: oldbrew’s post: December 29, 2016 at 5:52 pm —- a quick post.

    There are more errors. The Earth tilt changes anticipated as in Dodwell thread have received added corroborating material. One paper here: fig4.

    See also this quick post :

    Red vert lines are geological upheavals, 3195 corroborated from several sources. 2345, 4374, 6200 matching tilt change events; 3550 a reverse event. There are other proxies with those highlites.

    I feel this is the better ‘archaeological proxy’ that tells what has been happening. (perhaps something to best forget with 2016)

  105. Paul Vaughan says:

    Mystery: Is a new 5 storey high tidal turbine the cause of recent marine life death in Nova Scotia?

  106. Paul Vaughan says:

    2016 #1:

    “This is what you came for:
    Lightning strikes every time she moves.
    We say nothing more than we need.”
    — Calvin Harris ft. Rihanna

    The recent Soon article refers to Hudson+(2016) which I note makes the same mistake I’ve been correcting for years: it looks at the solar cycle average rather than variance.

    People are stupid.

  107. oldbrew says:

    Jupiter’s nearest moon Io has a clockwork volcano – except when it takes a break…

    NS report — Window to hell: Io’s strongest volcano changes face as we watch

    First spotted by Voyager 1 in 1979, Loki is thought to be a horseshoe-shaped sea of magma 200 kilometres wide that hasn’t stopped burbling since we first discovered it. [bold added]

    Over decades of study, observers have noticed a pattern: about every 540 days, a wave of brightness starts at one end of the lake of lava and pivots anticlockwise like a windshield wiper.

    But in 2002, right when we thought we had Loki pegged, those phases stopped. Then in 2009, according to recent work by Katherine de Kleer at the University of California, Berkeley, they started again – but are now moving clockwise. Appropriate behaviour for a feature named after the Norse trickster god.

    We don’t yet understand why.
    – – –
    Some kind of magnetic reversal?

  108. oldbrew says:

    Earth’s Magnetic Fields Could Track Ocean Heat, NASA Study Proposes

    Researchers know where and when the tides are moving ocean water, and with the high-resolution data from the Swarm satellites, they can pick out the magnetic fluctuations due to these regular ocean movements.

    That’s where another geophysical feature comes in. The magnetic fluctuations of the tides depend on the electrical conductivity of the water – and the electrical conductivity of the water depends on its temperature.

    For Tyler, the question then is: “By monitoring these magnetic fluctuations can we monitor the ocean temperature?”

    Of course it’s the usual ‘as our planet warms’ stuff, but here’s a 48 second video:

    The Ocean’s Hidden Heat [pdf]
    December 12, 2016

    Click to access oceanheatagu2016briefing.pdf

    Quote: Conductance inverted from the
    observed magnetic fields is,
    however, currently limited in
    accuracy by noise in the
    observations and/or imperfect
    modeling. But, we are early in our
    efforts to improve the
    methodology and the three ESA Swarm
    satellites are currently
    measuring the Earth’s magnetic
    field in unprecedented resolution.

  109. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK: the Fig.4 link paper [December 30, 2016 at 3:50 pm] shows Icelandic glaciers advancing for the majority of the period between 1250 and 1930 (see Figure 5).

    Paper: ‘Regardless of the mechanism, our results demonstrate that glaciers responded quite actively to natural climate variations of the Holocene.’
    – – –
    Since about the time of the US ‘dust bowl years’ of the 1930s they’ve retreated, just as they have done many times before.

  110. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 24 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

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