Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 23

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew from suggestions 23

    Quote “oldmanK: the Fig.4 link paper [December 30, 2016 at 3:50 pm] shows Icelandic glaciers advancing for the majority of the period between 1250 and 1930 (see Figure 5).” Yes. As it is, the subject that is of major interest to me goes blank post 2000bce. However I have noted that the earth went quiet and cooler past that date — which is food for thought.

    But just in case what I wanted to point to was missed, the proxies in fig4 tell clearly of ‘disturbances’ (where I have drawn vert lines), and those disturbances correlate and have an explanation from archaeology– the evident maths in archeo,— amongst which are earth tilt changes (pls note that now too many pieces fit for plain coincidence). So past climate models based on insolation are on no sound basis, definitely during the High Holocene, and cannot be compared to later.

    Science has not been questioning enough and confirming some of its inherited ‘established science’. Where ‘obliquity’ is concerned there is a wide loop-hole.

  3. oldbrew says:

  4. oldbrew says:

    Report: A jet stream of liquid iron has been found deep in the heart of the Earth’s core

    The European Space Agency has discovered a jet stream deep below the surface of the Earth, and it’s moving at increased speeds.

    A paper, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, explains that the field exists because of an “ocean of superheated, swirling liquid iron” that makes up the outer core. This works in a similar way to a spinning conductor in a bike dynamo; this moving iron creates electrical currents, which in turn generate the planet’s magnetic field.

  5. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Hmmmm. is there a pending moderation que? or paste in not allowed?

  6. pearce m. schaudies says:

    ok. I read the post on 18th March 2012 about solar planetary coupling. I tried to use the JPL NASA solar system simulator but it only starts in 1990. If someone knows of another online planetary positions simulator please let me know. I would like to look at the Jupiter Saturn Earth Venus position at solar cycle 18 in 1943 all the way through 2020. New pair

    I am using Google speech to text so it may look funny.

    Pierce minister of future.

  7. oldmanK says:

    @ pearce m. schaudies I have used this here: Used to check out Hesiod and the zodiacal positions in 400bc, and 5000bc. For what I needed it, it worked fine.

  8. pearce m. schaudies says:

    @oldmanK- thanks for that link old man k. Unfortunately I only have a 7 inch Android tablet haha. so I also have my personal hypothesis on Ice Age Theory but it’s a bit long to type in my hand. I will try to read it in using Google Speech to Text in a few days.

    Regards Pierce minister of future.

  9. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew’s post : “—This works in a similar way to a spinning conductor in a bike dynamo; this moving iron creates electrical currents, which in turn generate the planet’s magnetic field.” The bike dynamo has a ‘permanent magnet’ to start the electric current.

    I recall once reading instructions on how to start the magnetic field in generator exciter with battery when it does not self-start from remanence,—-and to occasionally flip the field. What started the earth field in the first instance? (perhaps thermoelectric current between poles and equator??)

  10. oldbrew says:

    Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change is the rational science reference book about polar bears that readers around the world have been requesting – says the author, professional zoologist Susan Crockford.

    See a short preview pdf here.

    Click to access polar-bears_outstanding-survivors-short-preview.pdf

    See also:

  11. oldbrew says:

    Mission Impossible: Green Dream

    Tenfold jump in green tech needed to meet global emissions targets
    January 3, 2017
    – – –
    Or: forget silly and irrelevant targets – that would be achievable.

  12. oldbrew says:

    In Suggestions-18 Rick Salavador said in the ENSO-related discussion:
    ‘f5 = 2.715426’

    Note that 13 x 2.715426 = 35.300538 which matches the Sidorenkov lunar tidal frequency (35.3 tropical years)

    Also the ratio of the lunar nodal cycle to 2.715426 is 1:Phi^4 as I mentioned in an earlier thread last year (will link if/when found).

  13. oldbrew says:

    Carbon circular logic
    Posted on January 5, 2017 by Clive Best

    A NASA paper recently reported on the CO2 greening effect. So did somehow the global biota switch from being a source of emissions (deforestation) to being a net sink (greening) as CO2 levels increased? Suddenly everyone thinks this was obvious all along.
    – – –
    Looks like cli-sci is tying itself up in knots again 😐

  14. Climate refugees:
    ‘Around a fifth of the population have moved to Ulaanbaatar, a doubling of the city’s number of inhabitants. Large-scale migration to the cities exacerbates social problems such as unemployment, alcoholism and extreme poverty.’

  15. oldbrew says:

    Lord B: it also makes city pollution worse as they burn tyres and all sorts to try and keep warm.

    According to official data on Friday, the air quality index in the northern Ulaanbaatar district of Bayankhoshuu reached a hazardous 1,854, with concentrations of breathable airborne particles known as PM2.5 at 927 micrograms per cubic metre.

    The safe recommended level of PM2.5 is 10 micrograms, according to the World Health Organization.

  16. oldbrew says:

    Study finds potential instability in Atlantic Ocean water circulation system could trigger global cooling

    But they think CO2 warms the ocean so their theory may have a problem. Or they may have inserted this red herring to appease their funders 😉

    ‘The researchers also noted the major impact that climate change itself has on AMOC patterns. Additional carbon dioxide, for example, warms the cold water of the North Atlantic. Such developments would have an impact on AMOC behavior, the researchers said.’

  17. oldbrew says:

    Students film breathtaking curvature of Earth using high-altitude weather balloon
    January 6, 2017

  18. Saighdear says:

    In my mail today: German greens at it again? : Higher Taxes ( VAT ) on Milk & Meat products Disbelief etc amongst Industry; see

    07.01.2017 | 02:11
    Niedersachsens Agrarminister für höhere Besteuerung von Fleisch
    Mehrwertsteuererhöhung für tierische Produkte stößt auf Unverständnis

  19. oldbrew says:

    The Frigid 48: U.S. Average Temperature 11 deg. F
    January 7th, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    As predicted here ten days ago, portions of all of the Lower 48 states are below 32 deg. F at 6 a.m. EST this morning.

    The spatial average temperature over the Lower 48 at 6 a.m. is 11 deg. F, which is fully 9 deg. (!) colder than at any time last winter (20 deg. F) which occurred twice in January of 2016.

    What about Europe?

    Snowstorms hold mainland Europe in an icy grip as scores succumb to bitterly cold weather

    7 JANUARY 2017 • 3:19PM
    Heavy snow fall and below-freezing temperatures continued to sweep across the European continent Saturday causing scores of deaths, and grounding airplanes and crippling ferries in Italy and Turkey – an icy cold that is expected to continue over the weekend.

  20. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew says: January 7, 2017 at 4:45 pm “Students film breathtaking curvature of Earth”. So the Earth is not flat after all.

    Not that this was not known millennia ago. Yet we still obstinately cling to 2000+ years of dumbing.

  21. oldbrew says:

    Thanks oldmanK – bookmarked it.

    The Solar Cycle
    David H. Hathaway

    Understanding the solar cycle remains one of the biggest problems in solar physics. It is also one of the oldest. Several key features of the solar cycle have been reviewed here and must be explained by any viable dynamo theory or model. They include: [see link]

  22. oldbrew says:

    Miles Mathis: The Wilkes Land Anomaly and the charge field

    MM discusses the cause of the polar vortices and the movement of the south magnetic pole amongst other things, including – as usual – poking holes in mainstream theories.

    Click to access wilkes.pdf

  23. oldbrew says:

    Date: 09/01/17 David Whitehouse, The Spectator

    The death of the global warming ‘pause’ has been greatly exaggerated

    Whitehouse sounds like a ‘lukewarmer’:
    ‘Greenhouse gasses stop heat leaving the earth, so the planet is getting warmer. This is fundamental physics.’

    Gas that is a fraction of 1% of the atmosphere can’t ‘stop’ anything :/
    It’s the oceans that retain heat.

  24. oldbrew says:

    Global Warming Alarmist In Therapy To Handle Despair About Trump

    The party’s over for warmists, now the hangover 😐

  25. oldbrew says:

    Letter: BBC ‘propaganda machine working against British public’

    In this country we have a fully publicly funded organisation known as the British Broadcasting Corporation. A group that works against us by continually shoving out propaganda that all our problems are, in the main, of our own making.


  26. oldbrew says:

    Tibetans Lived in Himalayas Year-Round Up to 12,600 Years Ago

    Chusang was likely a permanent settlement, one that occurred before people began using agriculture in the area, the researchers said. What’s more, from about 11,500 to 4,200 years ago, the region was wetter and more humid than it is today, which would have helped the people living there survive, the researchers said. [bold added]

    The great flood of China, or one of them, may have happened around 2200 BC (4,200 years ago).

  27. oldbrew says:

    NASA study finds a connection between wildfires and drought

    Really – who thought that was worth a study?

  28. linneamogren says:


    That study sounds like Time’s study that men and women are different! Who knew.

  29. oldmanK says:

    We missed collecting another moon?

    [reply] too small, only office-block size

  30. oldbrew says:

    Sunspot-free days booming (rightmost column).

  31. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew says: January 10, 2017 at 1:11 pm

    oldbrew, have you made a connection between the 4200BP date (~2345bce) with Dodwell. That was the time when the climate there changed. So has it done in other places around that point in time — no coincidence.

    [reply] looks plausible

  32. tom0mason says:

    Perhaps some here are avid readers, if so I’ve stumbled upon a strange site (and sight) with some really good links…
    100 Legal Sites to Download FREE eBooks and Literature from

    and for all you science and computer types there’s

    Hope it’s useful.

  33. Seriously….

    “The BBC’s Reality Check team will focus on content that is clearly fabricated and attempting to mislead the public into thinking it has been produced by a reputable news organisation.”

  34. oldbrew says:

    Lord B: so no more Guardian climate alarm stories on the BBC? 😎

  35. oldbrew says:

    35-year Climatic Bruckner Cycle – Solar Control of Climate Variability?
    – – –
    The paper below makes some big claims about 35 year climate cycles.

    Thirty-five-year climatic cycle in heliogeophysics, psychophysiology, military politics, and economics

    Cycles of about 35 years found in the climate by Brückner and Egeson were aligned with periodic changes in the length of the solar cycle by the Lockyers. The solar-cycle length and climate were subsequently revisited without reference to any cyclicity or those who discovered it. The descriptive statistics of Bruckner and Lockyer were repeatedly questioned and, with notable exceptions, have been forgotten. Bruckner’s data, taken from his summary chart, are shown here for the first time inferentially statistically validated as nonstationary (to the point of intermittency) and, as transdisciplinary, extending from meteorology to 2556 years of international battles; to 2189 years of tree rings; to ∼900 years of northern lights; to 400 years of economics; to 173 years of military affairs; and to ∼40 years of helio-, interplanetary- and geomagnetics matching a longitudinal record by a healthy individual who self-measured his heart rate and mental functions (with a 1-min time estimation), among other variables. Space weather, mirrored in the circulation of human blood, can be tracked biologically as a dividend from self-assessed preventive health care including the automatically and ambulatory-recorded heart rate and blood pressure for detecting and treating heretofore ignored vascular variability disorders. A website providing free analyses for anyone (in exchange for their data) could serve any community with computer-savvy members and could start focusing the attention of the population at large on problems of societal as well as individual health. Space weather was found to affect the human cardiovascular system, and it has been supposed that data on space weather can be inversely assimilated from biological self-monitoring data.
    – – –

  36. oldbrew says:

    Sunspots vanish, space weather continues

    So far in 2017, the big story in space weather is sunspots–or rather, the lack thereof. The sun has been blank more than 90% of the time. Only one very tiny spot observed for a few hours on Jan. 3rd interrupted a string of spotless days from New Years through Jan.11th. Devoid of dark cores, yesterday’s sun is typical of the year so far.
    – – –
    A lot of interesting things happen when sunspots vanish. For instance, the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun plummets. This causes the upper atmosphere of Earth to cool and collapse. With less air “up there” to cause orbital decay, space junk accumulates around our planet.

    Also during Solar Minimum, the heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge is already underway, with implications for astronauts and even ordinary air travelers.

  37. oldbrew says:

    Trump meets with Princeton physicist who says global warming is good for us

    Yes, Donald Trump met with Al Gore. But on Friday, according to the Trump transition team, the president-elect also met with William Happer, a Princeton professor of physics who has been a prominent voice in questioning whether we should be concerned about human-caused climate change.
    – – –
    Job offer – adviser?
    – – –
    Princeton climate realist Happer meets Trump

    Lubos Motl: ‘I think it’s vital for the soon-to-be U.S. president to keep some interaction with scholars like Happer.’

    ‘Every scientist who is both competent and honest is countering the alarmist propaganda.’

  38. oldbrew says:

    Booker: Mind-blowing figures put tidal lagoons in land of make-believe

    ‘That such projects can actually be taken seriously is a measure of just what a bizarre dreamworld we are being carried into by the drive to “decarbonise” Britain.’

  39. oldbrew says:

    Erl Happ writes:
    I went to Google to discover whether any progress has been made in explaining the role of the annular modes …and indeed there has, but in Beijing, not in Washington or Colorado.

    I direct the reader to this page:

    It is a treasure trove of useful observation and deduction.

  40. oldbrew says:

    Is space cold?

    Another Big Climate Lie: Outer Space Is ‘Cold’
    Published on January 15, 2017
    Written by John O’Sullivan

    ‘But in a practical sense, space doesn’t really have a temperature– you can’t measure a temperature of a vacuum, something that isn’t there. The residual molecules that do exist aren’t enough to have much of any effect. Space isn’t “cold,” it isn’t “hot”, it really isn’t anything.’
    — Geoffrey A. Landis, space scientist at the NASA John Glenn Research Center

  41. Q. Daniels says:

    I did a thing, and wrote a paper. The paper has been reviewed and published.

  42. Myles Allen gives us the money quote:

    “For too long the climate change discussion has been about things that will happen in 100 years time,” said Prof Allen.
    “For economically insecure people, statements about what might happen in 100 years time they just don’t care about, because they know these kind of predictions have been proved wrong in the past and will be in the future.”
    “Better science is not the crucial thing here. It’s this realisation that the people primarily being affected by climate change are the poor and the people benefiting are the extremely wealthy.”

    Absolutely spot on, the poor paying for the rich’s renewable money schemes….
    This last sentence quotation needs more coverage for definite.

  43. oldbrew says:

    Lord B: Trump & co get their chance of ‘course correction’ starting next week. We shall see.

  44. Oldbrew: at long last….

  45. oldmanK says:

    A site with nice visuals of the sun, courtesy google.

  46. oldbrew says:

    Brexit: don’t mention the war….oops…

    Boris Johnson has warned EU leaders not to give the UK “punishment beatings” for Brexit “in the manner of some World War Two movie”.

    The foreign secretary said penalising “escape” was “not in the interests of our friends and our partners”.

    Boris Johnson Compares French President to World War II Prison-Camp Guard
    (AP) – As Theresa May extols Britain’s close friendship with its European neighbors, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is being criticized for comparing French President Francois Hollande to a World War II prison-camp guard.

    May’s spokeswoman, Helen Bower, defended Johnson, saying “he was making a point. He was in no way suggesting that anyone was a Nazi.”

    + + +
    Wise advice from Boris’ former Vote Leave comrade…

    17 million lager louts? Nutty ‘remoaner’ Prof lashes out.

  47. oldbrew says:

    Strong earthquakes strike central Italy, Rome metro evacuated
    Three earthquakes of above 5.3 magnitude struck in the space of one hour.

    By Sofia Lotto Persio
    January 18, 2017 10:48 GMT
    – – –
    Up to 30 people are feared dead after an avalanche believed to be triggered by an earthquake hit an Italian hotel. “There are many deaths,” Antonio Crocetta, the head of a mountain rescue team, told Italian news agency Ansa.

  48. oldbrew says:

    Date: 19/01/17 Emily Gosden, The Times

    The Church of England has concluded that fracking can be morally acceptable in a move that shale gas explorers hope could pave the way for drilling to take place on church land.
    – – –
    The money’s not bad either 😎

  49. oldbrew says:

    Guardian climate angst goes into overdrive as Trump takes office…

    Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live
    [stranded polar bear pic included]

    George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’
    – – –
    Same old tosh.

  50. Paul Vaughan says:

    Re: Lord Beaverbrook January 17, 2017 at 7:55 am

    It’s simpler than that. It’s simply:

    “For economically insecure people, statements about what might happen in 100 years time they just don’t care”

    Necessity’s invention’s mother. People are flat out focused on surviving the day. When there’s an immediate risk of sudden death, luxurious focus on the distant future is unaffordable. Surviving the day has to be priority #1 every day for people at the bottom.

    It’s natural.

  51. oldbrew says:

    Was this worth spending research money on?

    Effects of Warming Temperatures on Winning Times in the Boston Marathon

  52. Sphene says:

    More heat in Earth’s core than thought?

         ” “If heat coming from the core is more important than we thought, this implies that the total heat originally stored in the core is much larger than we thought…Based on our models of mantle convection, the mantle may be removing as much as half of Earth’s total convective heat budget from the core,” Rowley said.”

  53. Paul Vaughan says:

    Former Canadian PM Harper speaks in India on sun-paced multidecadal geophysical changepoint:

  54. oldbrew says:

    Sphene – re ‘If heat coming from the core is more important than we thought…’

    Miles Mathis theorises along the same lines.

    ‘So let us move away from this bad air and breathe again the sweet breezes of logic. What is the driving force of continental drift? Charge. Something has to be moving up through the mantle and core to cause convection currents, either radial or lateral, and that something is charge. Something has to be driving energy out from the core to cause motions in the crust, either radial or lateral, and that something is charge. Something has to be causing the energy in the core, and that something is charge. Something has to be constantly replenishing the energy in the core, and that something is charge, coming in at the poles. Something has to be replenishing this charge coming in at the poles, and that is the ambient charge field of the Solar System. Something has to be replenishing this ambient field, and that something is the Sun. Something has to be replenishing the Sun’s charge, and that is the Galactic Core. Something has to be replenishing the charge of the galaxy, and that is the Universal charge field.

    So, as you have seen, I have taken the cause and the driving force back much further than convection cells in the mantle. I can point to a logical line of causes all the way back to the Universal charge field, which we know exists not only from the so-called cosmic background radiation CBR, but more recently from dark matter estimates and from NASA’s discovery of new super-galactic structures’

    Click to access drift.pdf

  55. oldbrew says:

    Someone had a bad day…

    [credit: WUWT]

  56. Paul Vaughan says:

    A step towards correction of incompetent and/or evasive assessments of the role of multiaxially spatiotemporally differentially balanced (a) decadal solar cyclic volatility of semi-annual oscillation and consequent (b) multidecadal solar cycle deceleration fluctuation:

  57. Paul Vaughan says:

    A link to the article Sphene pointed out (on stable EPR):

    Click to access e1601107.full.pdf

  58. oldbrew says:

    Lubos Motl jokes (?): ‘we eagerly expect new pages containing the schedule of the transfer of the U.S. climate alarmists to the Guantanámo Bay where they belong.’

  59. oldbrew says:

    The Startling Debacle Of Germany’s Electric Cars …Auto Industry Faces Demise In 10 Years

    Unless the climate science nonsense and hysteria get put to rest, Germany risks seeing its energy and automotive sectors collapse.

  60. craigm350 says:

    All based on the fake Cook et. al study.

    Cambridge scientists consider fake news ‘vaccine’

    “Misinformation can be sticky, spreading and replicating like a virus,” said the University of Cambridge study’s lead author Dr Sander van der Linden.

    “The idea is to provide a cognitive repertoire that helps build up resistance to misinformation, so the next time people come across it they are less susceptible.”
    The study, published in the journal Global Challenges, was conducted as a disguised experiment.

    More than 2,000 US residents were presented with two claims about global warming.
    The researchers say when presented consecutively, the influence well-established facts had on people were cancelled out by bogus claims made by campaigners.

    Psychological ‘vaccine’ could help immunize public against ‘fake news’ on climate change

    To find the most compelling climate change falsehood currently influencing public opinion, van der Linden and colleagues tested popular statements from corners of the internet on a nationally representative sample of US citizens, with each one rated for familiarity and persuasiveness.

    The winner: the assertion that there is no consensus among scientists, apparently supported by the Oregon Global Warming Petition Project. This website claims to hold a petition signed by “over 31,000 American scientists” stating there is no evidence that human CO2 release will cause climate change.

    The study also used the accurate statement that “97% of scientists agree on manmade climate change”. Prior work by van der Linden has shown this fact about scientific consensus is an effective ‘gateway’ for public acceptance of climate change.


    “We found that inoculation messages were equally effective in shifting the opinions of Republicans, Independents and Democrats in a direction consistent with the conclusions of climate science,” says van der Linden.

    “What’s striking is that, on average, we found no backfire effect to inoculation messages among groups predisposed to reject climate science, they didn’t seem to retreat into conspiracy theories.

  61. oldbrew says:

    If they want to try and brand climate scepticism as fake news, good luck. Chances are they will just reduce their own credibility and give us all some more entertainment 😉

    PS we all know the ‘97% of scientists’ claim is fake and can easily be shown to be so.

  62. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, devilishly overbearing belief-policing razes trust, hardening integrity and resolve. Necessity’s invention’s mother. They don’t stop to realize that necessity’s the driving force behind the explosion of fake news …for example as seen in the MSM. People are going to believe what they want to believe …and for soft minds facts don’t get any harder than that.

  63. stewgreen says:

    Ooh Scary scary in the Yorkshire post Full page News-Vert from GreenBlob Corporation
    Global climate warning as the world gets warmer bylined Chris Bond Their Lefty Features Editor
    (previous effort “Was Typhoon Haiyan a product of our changing climate?”)

    “0.07 degrees Celsius higher compared with those in 2015. This might sound like a piffling amount.. even a slight increase can have a profound effect.”
    “Parts of the Arctic have experienced temperatures above freezing this winter when they should be well below zero”
    ..well weird weather depends on wind direction..There is no SHOULD

    “However, there are fears that Donald Trump may try and undo some of the work that has been agreed.”
    “even some formerly sceptical world leaders now recognise”
    strange that he doesn’t name them

    Quotes : Piers Forster Leeds U
    “storm Desmond that brought flooding to northern England in December 2015 was much stronger than it would have been without climate change”

    Grant Bigg, Sheffield U, “The number of people who think greenhouse gases are not responsible is really very small and continually decreasing.”

    “Data show that 16 of the 17 hottest years on record have occurred in the 21st century.
    A report published in the medical journal The Lancet estimated that climate change causes around 18,000 deaths a day.”

    [reply] the climate scare machine seems addicted to its own hype, they need help 😉

  64. oldbrew says:

    The Trump Climate Dump: Why It Doesn’t Matter if Even 100% of Scientists Agree on Global Warming
    January 20th, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    Why trying to ‘buy a climate’ is a waste of money, or worse.

  65. Paul Vaughan says:

    As alarmists have loudly underscored with their religious belief in the heavenly output of god-like climate models, the distinction between reality and fantasy is a simple choice. Their see-through game plan goes in a predictably one-sided direction. Their vulnerability is directly proportional to the strength of their beliefs. What they haven’t realized yet: Freed of this fantastic coupling, they could oppose more formidably. They underestimate the utility of flexibility. They’re like the mouse that keeps trying one dead end in the maze, rather than choosing to explore new possibilities. In failure lies opportunity: We’re nearing the break-point where the smart leadership will radiate onto new avenues. There’s huge opportunity to uncouple fate from transparent vulnerability. They’re not able to recognize paradox. They’re sure they have the right direction. Sometimes you have to go around.

  66. Paul Vaughan says:

    If I was a rich elite trying to game the political system with my shady investments, right now I’d be simply thinking about revival of the “classic left” — i.e. traditional left minus the corrupting climate model fantasy. If you take out the corrupting climate model fantasy, the left actually has some formidable credibility and persuasive integrity on other issues …and it becomes less of a gamble.

    From my money’s point of view it isn’t as much about who’s in power as it is about correcting course. Do I the rich elite really care who’s in power? Or do I just want to bet more wisely? Is it wise to always bet in the exact same predictable manner? Do I have enough class to recognize the basic value of simple classics? Maybe I can get the cheese by going around what looks to be the long way but is faster and easier kind of ability to recognize a paradox staring me the smart mouse in the face kind of thing…

  67. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s simple and natural.

    51% of voters don’t want their January heating bill to increase by $932 just because 115% (or 97% or 100% or whatever %) of climate scientists agree.

    Unless the left intends to go militant — putting freedom and democracy in the cross-hairs for real — it has nowhere to go except away from climate model fantasy.

  68. Poly says:

    Yup, the old left has become the new establishment.
    Aging statist leftist elitists like Clinton, Soros and Streep now clinging to political power-gaining policies that have failed them.
    This especially includes economic and growth-destroying green climate-justified energy policies.
    They have truly failed their traditional constituents of the poor and powerless.
    The poor cannot afford to heat themselves and have been deprived of job opportunities. At the same time migrants have been given better assistance than afforded to them.
    The current anger is obvious – it is just incredible that it has taken so long to surface.

  69. oldbrew says:

    Brexit court case result: Government defeat.

  70. oldmanK says:

    Its the Sahara again.

    I wait for this “The team’s paper “Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara,” is scheduled for publication in the journal Science Advances on Jan. 18.”

    SIS also had something to say about this. Quote “The glitch in the consensus occurs at 8000 years ago (which is our old 6200BC event). This, they found, coincided with a lengthy dry period (in northern Europe it coincided with a distinctly cool period, if not outright cold). In fact, i(t) might well be described as a sort of mini Dryas episode (the origins of which are open to conjecture). We may note it also coincides with dramatic sea level changes. This was one feature of a BBC TV programme last week on the Orkneys. Previously they had thought the flooding of the bay off the Ness of Brodgar had occurred around the time the site was abandoned, late in the 3rd millennium BC. Neil Oliver read out the results of C14 dates obtained under the submerged bay and it seems it was flooded as far back as 8000 years ago. This is at exactly the same point in time that the North Sea basin was flooded and the Solent in the south of England was also flooded (a dry valley previously).”

    The trouble with C14 dating is that both 6200bce and 2345-2200 were eventful marker dates. Some dates keep showing up nearly everywhere!

  71. oldmanK says:

    Further to my earlier post, and with ref to the SIS link, I liked this piece at the end, “We are also told the researchers were interestd in how the Green Sahara interacted with the atmosphere, ‘because most of the current climate models do not simulate the Green Sahara period well’ – but they wouldn’t would they? Climate models do not factor in catastrophism (sudden and unexpected events). It would be amazing if the models did so. One sees this lack of data whey they start talking about precession and Milankovitch – the northern hemisphere being closer to the sun (but avoiding the fact the Sahara is quite close to the equator). However, in spite of that this is a worthwhile piece of research and the climate bit might be regarded as an add-on for political reason and therefore not to be taken wholly seriously. One should be able to pluck out a few gems.”

    It is good they said it — even though SIS once, if I remember correctly, they put up a piece that tried to debunk astronomer Dodwell.

  72. oldbrew says:

    Two of Russia’s icebreaker vessels have been marooned in the East Siberian Sea after the sea froze over.

    The Kapitan Dranitsyn and Admiral Makarov are stranded until May or June after it was deemed unsafe for them to lead a convoy across the sea.

    The incident has defied Vladimir Putin’s desire for the treacherous seaway to remain open in January.

    Read more:
    – – –
    That’s what you get for believing Al Gore & co.

  73. oldbrew says:

    California declares State of Emergency after trio of storms pound the State – 4 dead as a result

    ‘Flood watches and warnings were in effect in Southern California as downtown Los Angeles received nearly 4 inches of rain, inundating roadways, toppling trees and raising fears of damaging mudslides.’

  74. oldbrew says:

    Supreme Irony #2 – Mauna Loa and Hawaiian Temperatures

    So there we have it – an entire US state with a documented lack of “Global Warming” – it never was global, and there are many places all round the globe showing either a total lack of late-20C warming, or even cooling. If many Sceptics would stop their incessant and negative complaining about GHCN/GISS adjusted and “homogenised” temperature data, and actually use the extensive unadjusted database, there’s an Aladdin’s cave of debunking material to be extracted and put to good use.

  75. oldbrew says:

    New space weather model helps simulate magnetic structure of solar storms
    January 26, 2017 by Lina Tran

    The new model is known as a “first principles” model because its calculations are based on the fundamental physics theory that describes the event – in this case, the plasma properties and magnetic free energy, or electromagnetics, guiding a CME’s movement through space.

    Such computer models can help researchers better understand how the sun will affect near-Earth space, and potentially improve our ability to predict space weather, as is done by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    Read more at:

    ‘electromagnetics, guiding a CME’s movement through space’ – we don’t hear things like that very often.

  76. oldbrew says:

    A new theory of 100,000 year ice ages is featured here:

    100,000 year ice age cycle linked to orbital periods and sea ice
    Anthony Watts January 27, 2017

    I had doubts when they cited carbon dioxide as a potential cause rather than an effect.
    – – –
    Rial had a different idea here:

    Synchronization of the climate system to eccentricity forcing and the 100,000-year problem

  77. oldbrew says:

    Scientific study of China’s great flood could prove 4,000-year-old legend

    One landslide triggered by the earthquake plunged into the Yellow River, forming a 200 metre high dam, higher than today’s Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze. It completely blocked the flow of China’s second-largest river and in the following six to nine months up to 12 billion to 17 billion cubic metres of water built up behind the dam.

    It then collapsed, sending a torrent of water 500 times the average natural flow through Jishi Gorge hurtling more than 2,000km downstream. It “ranks globally among the largest freshwater floods of the Holocene”, according to a research paper published in the latest issue of Science magazine on Friday.

    For the first time, science has provided evidence for China’s great flood, as important a part of Chinese legend as the biblical story of Noah is in the West.
    – – –
    The study involved many researchers from different disciplines, including archaeologists, geologists and chronologists, from institutes in mainland China, Taiwan and the United States.

  78. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew’s post, quote “For the first time, science has provided evidence for China’s great flood, as important a part of Chinese legend as the biblical story of Noah is in the West.”

    That is “believed to have occurred in 1920BC.” But “the Xia dynasty would have been founded around 1900BC, two to three centuries later than previous estimates”. Thus previous estimates would put it at 1900+300=2200bc. That is more like the famous 2200bc known from the rest of the world.

    Its not as important as Noah flood, its more like the same event; just another example of it.

  79. oldmanK says:

    Re “A new theory of 100,000 year ice ages is featured here:” from earlier oldbrew post, the abstract says “diminishing the precession and eccentricity signals and explaining the dominant obliquity signal (40-kyr) before the mid-Pleistocene transition.”

    A good write-up I found is here: It addresses the many questions tied to this subject, and comparing the dominant effect of obliquity compared to the weak eccentricity.

    None, however, propose an explanation why the change is so abrupt, like the pawl of a ratchet; a trigger. That does not result from secular orbital changes. Ex:

    But a very low obliquity (way under 22deg) leaves eccentricity a dominant player, however weak.

  80. oldbrew says:

    All these ice age and interglacial arguments remind me of this quote for some reason:
    ‘Why is it Greenland and Iceland, not the other way round?’

  81. oldbrew says:

    Diesel drivers will have to pay extra to park in central London

    Motorists driving diesel models will have to pay an extra 50 per cent on the normal charge, £4.90-an-hour, to park their car or van in a bay.
    – – –
    Back in the day diesels got road tax concessions for saving CO2. That policy is well dead.

  82. oldbrew says:

    CIA declassified files: US and Soviet nuclear sub crash off Scotland ‘almost sparked global war’

    Newly declassified CIA files indicate that a US submarine laden with 160 warheads collided with a Soviet vessel off the coast of Scotland in 1974. Experts say it could easily have caused nuclear war.

    The files seem to confirm the long-rumored Cold War incident occurred near Holy Loch, Argyll, where the US once had a permanent nuclear base. Chillingly, the crash took place just 30 miles (48km) off the coast of Glasgow.

    ‘where the US once had a permanent nuclear base’ – not so permanent then 😐

  83. oldbrew says:

    Do Global Temperatures make sense?
    Posted on January 27, 2017 by Clive Best

    The main problem with all the existing observational datasets is that they don’t actually measure the global temperature at all. Instead they measure the global average temperature ‘anomaly’.

  84. oldbrew says:

  85. oldbrew says:

    The tropical lapse rate steepened during the Last Glacial Maximum

    H/T SIS
    – – –
    Another in the ‘it’s worse than we thought’ series 😦

  86. oldmanK says:

    Another something for a Sunday evening, not so relaxing. Its a little gem from SIS, this time very genuine to me at least.

    The good bit is an obliquity of about 14deg. I never expected a corroboration. (So an insolation based on a 22-24deg for past millennia is a rogue assumption).

  87. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK – later it says re Ursa Major:

    ‘For the pole star to have once been in this constellation the Earth’s obliquity must have been near to 36 degrees, precisely the obliquity required to produce a 2:1 solstice ratio recorded in ancient Babylon.’

    Babylonians are also credited with inventing the 360 degree circle and the ‘base 60’ numbering system.

  88. oldbrew says:

    David Keighley: BBC declares war on America

    In BBC programme after programme, battalions of outraged parties were lined up to attack his [Trump’s] new approach to border control. [bold added]
    – – –
    [A] crucial point is that the list of countries in the Trump executive order is not new, nor was it even devised by Trump and his government.

    Reacting to terror threats and plots from 2009 onward, the US government eventually passed the Terrorist Travel Prevention Act of 2015 which stipulated and facilitated visa controls on seven countries Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Libya, Syria and Somalia.

    President Trump’s executive order actually mentions only Syria (in connection with the refugee ban) by name and simply adopts those countries already identified as serious terrorist threats to homeland security needing special legislation – by that BBC hero, Barack Obama!
    – – –
    U.S. Customs and Border Protection
    What are the additional questions being added to the ESTA application in June 2016? [bold added]

    The additional/modified questions are:

    Have you traveled to, or been present in, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia, or Yemen on or after March 1, 2011?
    CBP Global Entry program number, if applicable.

  89. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew – the 36deg is not the only ‘fly in the ointment’. I’m still baffled by what it really meant. The other is the date of the ‘water clock’ in relation to the date of the pharaoh credited with its invention. But for two sources to come up with the same 14deg tilt and agreeing with my finding is intriguing.

    Re “Babylonians are also credited with inventing the 360 degree circle and the ‘base 60’ numbering system.”, this is very curious, but long story yet unknown. There is a calendar that required a quadrant division by best number 87-93, -days per season. That’s 90 – starting by dividing the quadrant by its own radius. = circle divided by 12, the hour clock. The site was abandoned -exodus- post ~3100 (fourth millennium), by a people with a particular folklore.

    That lore (and the maths) is in Mesopotamia, but 4th millennium archaeology is nonexistent there. Queer. Needs long study.

  90. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK – do you know this one?

    “….Lockyer masterful innovation was this: by determining the orientation of a temple and its geographic longitude, it was possible to calculate the obliquity that prevailed at the time of construction; and by determining the changes in obliquity over millennia, it was possible to conclude with sufficient certainty when the temple was constructed.

    “The Table of Obliquity, fined-tuned and made more accurate during the past century, shows the change in the angle of the Earth’s tilt in five hundred-year intervals going back from the present 23º 27’ (about 23.5 degrees):
    500 B.C. about 23.75 degrees
    1000 B.C. ” 23.81 ”
    1500 B.C. ” 23.87 ”
    2000 B.C. ” 23.92 ”
    2500 B.C. ” 23.97 ”
    3000 B.C. ” 24.02 ”
    3500 B.C. ” 24.07 ”
    4000 B.C. ” 24.11 ”

    “Lockyer applied his findings primarily at the great temple to Amon-Ra in Karnak.

    “….Indeed, further archaeological discoveries at Karnak corroborate Lockyer’s principal innovation – that the orientation of the temples changed in time to reflect the changes in obliquity. Therefore, the orientation could serve as a clue to the temple’s time of construction….”

  91. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew – I saw this once or more before, but now discount it. It is flawed since it uses the extrapolated obliquity (an assumption) to prove the temple. The “The Table of Obliquity, fined-tuned and made more accurate” is only the original (Newcomb) assumption but re-worked (Lieske) to several more decimal places. (it is based on Celestial Mech, the effect of the planets on the earth. It does not include nor excludes other influences that may impact obliquity).

    On the other hand a relic -a water clock- that assumes, or appears to, an obliquity of ~14 deg when later ones have different dimensions —- then ‘the theory has to fit the evidence’.

  92. oldbrew says:

    Interested in spin magnetization locking? Read on…

    Viewpoint: How to Create a Time Crystal

    Time crystals: Scientists have confirmed a brand new form of matter

    For months now, there’s been speculation that researchers might have finally created time crystals – strange crystals that have an atomic structure that repeats not just in space, but in time, putting them in perpetual motion without energy.

    Now it’s official

  93. The past is modified again, 10 year decadal forecasts chopped into 5 year decadal forecasts to match the current format. ‘New’ old forecasts against previous graphs look a lot more in tune with ‘observational’ data.

  94. oldbrew says:

    Lord B – the MetO say their last 5 year forecast ‘was generally too warm in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean and too cool in the equatorial Pacific and parts of the Arctic.’

    And the big El Nino of 2015/16 was in the ‘too cool’ region. Take that away and they’re left with ‘too warm’ 😎

  95. Paul Vaughan says:

    OBening minds — from OB’s link:

    “[…] never reach thermal equilibrium […].”
    “[…] continuous translation symmetry: nothing distinguishes one point from any other.”
    “[…] excludes all known classical oscillatory systems […]”

    “[…] a loophole was left open: nonequilibrium systems […] break the discrete time-translational symmetry of the drive […]”

    “[…] until recently, time-translation symmetry was the “lone holdout” […], in that there was no known way to break it.”

    “Although the full practical implications are not yet known, it is expected that such systems can exhibit topological order (the subject of the 2016 Nobel Prize in Physics), which can potentially stabilize quantum states against decoherence effects that limit their useful lifetime.”

    By analogy:

    Priming the social topology needed to simply break left-right political dead-lock, a quick American solution hinges on divisibly simple paradox.

    Conjecture ABC:
    Today’s world’s #1 political problem can be trivially solved with Anything But California. Counterproductive coherence with overdriven Californian spin is the enduring break in symmetry.

    “[…] to persist, it must be stabilized against heating to infinite temperature by imposing a phenomenon known as many-body localization, wherein strong random disorder in the system’s potential prevents energy absorption from the drive.”

    “[…] outside of which the time crystal “melts” into a symmetry-unbroken state.”
    “[…] not simply a curiosity relegated to small or narrowly specific systems.”
    “[…] symmetry breaking can occur in essentially all natural realms, and clears the way to several new avenues of research.”

    Looks pretty general.

  96. RJ Salvador says:

    OB &TB

    I committed to update the LOD model performance for one year. This will be my last update.
    The Model performed well in predicting the shape and general progression of the changes in LOD for the year 2016. See Below:

    However in June of 2016 there was a step change that slowed the earths LOD by 6 ten thousands of a second that the model did not and could not predict. The model does not contain any step functions or rational for one. Below is the deviation between the model and the LOD

    Below in days for the month of June is the change in the LOD and the model. I am sure that a Tallbloke blogger schooled in physics could estimate the size of the force or mass shift that would be needed to slow down the earth by 6 ten thousands of a second.

    Lastly I have adjusted the model by 6 ten thousands of a second to show how the model predicts the shape and direction of the LOD for the remainder of 2016 from June 12th. It’s evident the model works
    well except for the step change.

    This was an interesting exploration. The effect of lunisolar and perhaps planetary alteration to the earths rotation is probable as suggested by the model. But there are step changes of unknown origin which also come into play.

    Best Regards over and out,


  97. oldbrew says:

    Many thanks RJ, the model did well. The June step change is an interesting puzzle.

  98. RoswellJohn says:

    Someone could review this paper: “Harmonic Resonances of Planet and Moon Orbits – From the Titius-Bode Law to Self-Organizing Systems” for Why Phi.

    [reply] noted, thanks

  99. Poly says:

    mmmm, there were not even any significant earthquakes or volcanos in June 2016. Something does not add up here.

  100. Paul Vaughan says:

    That’s the spring barrier step down from the big El Nino.
    (The model residuals relate to ENSO, as we already knew.)

  101. oldmanK says:

    RJS LOD commitment has shown up something very important. Step changes do seem to occur. My first thought was same as Poly’s. Something does “does not add up”. There is a big gremlin in the works. The time duration shows at between 0.43-0.56 yr.

    It is in beginning of June, a slowing, near NH summer solstice. Polar ice loss >> equatorial water; a jump in Iz ?? From 2016 to 2017 it did not return to previous state.

    Very interesting RJS, ty.

  102. Poly says:

    Paul, thanks for your insight about the LoD step change.
    Please could you give us a brief note or link regarding the physical link between ENSO and LoD, I may have missed it in previous posts.
    Once again, thanks in advance.

  103. oldbrew says:

  104. stewgreen says:

    Yorkshire Post spins RHS Flower show as being all about Climate Change (not found online yet)
    Actually it’s just one feature:
    The RHS Garden for a Changing Climate
    “The RHS show feature is RHS Garden for a Changing Climate by Andy Clayden and Dr Ross Cameron of Sheffield University and RHS Scientist Eleanor Webster. Their design presents a small suburban garden ‘now’ and the ‘future’, and will highlight the RHS report Gardening in a Changing Climate, (to be published in April). There will also be details of the plants that will be able to cope with this new environment.

    Along with the release of the report, we’re running a competition for universities to create model-based gardens on the theme of Gardening in a Changing Climate. Designers will create a model garden for 2100, predicting future technology and gardening techniques and how our changing climate will influence what plants we can grow and the way we garden and use our outdoor spaces. We’re expecting great things as there are no limits to what can be designed.”

  105. stewgreen says:

    PS it’s at Chatsworth in June

  106. oldbrew says:

    ABC News: Japanese government planning to build 45 new coal fired power stations to diversify supply

    “Although Japan spent $US36 billion dollars on commercial solar power last year, and is planning much more, there is no carbon price.”

    “So at this stage there is no incentive to not build coal fired power station, unlike other countries and states that can have a price as high as $US35-40 per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted.”

  107. Paul Vaughan says:

    Poly, maybe trace the literature trail back from (say) here:
    One of Dickey’s 90s papers clarified (already then conventionally accepted) ENSO-LOD-AAM relations. The epicenters of the symmetry break are SF & Hollywood. (ABC restores symmetry.)

  108. oldbrew says:

    Evolution of a Coronal Hole

    Christmas 2016 was special for sky watchers around the Arctic Circle. The skies filled with some of the best Northern Lights of the year, including rare outbursts of white and pink. The source of the display: A giant “coronal hole” in the sun’s atmosphere sprayed our planet with solar wind. The hole opened up in July 2016 and it has been strobing Earth with solar wind every ~28 days ever since as the hole pirouettes with the slowly rotating sun. reader Stuart Green has prepared a plot showing the evolution of the coronal hole and the effect it has had on the magnetic field at his private observatory in Preston, England.

    Click on the image [in this link] to inspect the full 6 months:

  109. p.g.sharrow says:

    RJ Salvador says:
    January 31, 2017 at 10:11 pm ….. Step changes in LOD June 2016, what could cause this step?

    oldbrew says:
    February 2, 2017 at 10:49 am….. June 2016 a Giant Coronal hole opens up on the sun and bathes the Earth in a strob of increased solar wind.

    Have we just witnessed a hint of energy connection of sun to earth? …pg

  110. oldbrew says:

    pg – see today’s ‘Northern Lights’ post.

  111. Paul Vaughan says:

    pg, multivariate not univariate — (conflating energy with spatial pattern doesn’t help). Time-only’s silly; shape and flow change.

  112. Paul Vaughan says:

    Remember it’s a balanced multi-axial differential.

  113. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’m not impressed with Bill Illis’ ideas about insolation, but his latest ENSO notes are worthwhile:

  114. Paul Vaughan says:

    A B C ….

    The key to peace and stability is restoration of symmetry. Don’t break it in the ignition. Shaking the line of major fault too violently will be a non-starter, but duly correcting the threatening instability of the major fault line by appropriate means will be necessary to keep the engine of stable division (necessitated by failed union) running after it gets started. As with ENSO it’s an east-west coupling; it’s a balanced multi-axial differential. The root of global instability is the localized major fault line. It has a short length (in global context) and near-1 fractal dimension. Ensuring global stability reduces to correcting localized major fault. Unshakeable east-west coupling is built into the geometry. Having the wisdom to accept what we cannot change, we can easily restore global symmetry by correcting the localized major fault. It’s as easy as ABC and we can have the engine of stability up and running quickly if we don’t break the key in the ignition.

  115. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 25 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

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