Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 24

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    A Four Planet System in Orbit, Directly Imaged and Remarkable

    “it’s delightful that these recently discovered planets exhibit the same type of harmony exhibited by the Galilean moons, Io, Europa, and Ganymede (1:2:4) and illustrating some of the connections between our own solar system and those orbiting other stars.”

    NB the 4th (innermost) planet is not part of the same resonance according to the numbers at: [filter = ‘HR 8799’ in name ]

    See also:

  3. oldbrew says:

    Hundreds of ancient earthworks resembling Stonehenge found in Amazon rainforest

    The findings prove for the first time that prehistoric settlers in Brazil cleared large wooded areas to create huge enclosures meaning that the ‘pristine’ rainforest celebrated by ecologists is actually relatively new.

  4. Saighdear says:

    Has anybody noted the lack of Live Earthquake data lately on >>>> << and then compare that little Info with the Lightning over Western Turkey this now @ ? Coincidental or ?? – the activity that is !

  5. Geoff Sharp says:

    A new paper “A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity” uses a model based on Jupiter & Saturn.

    Click to access 1702.00641.pdf

  6. oldbrew says:

    Global oil demand will rise to 98.09 million barrels a day this year, compared with production of 98.03 million.

    Note: barrels A DAY. Where would we be without it?

  7. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK : one report said it was probably an overheating turbine which is ‘not that unusual’ – but not a good idea either 😐

  8. oldmanK says:

    A different take on the matter, a milder situation:

    But this from the BBC triggered a flag : “Five people reported feeling unwell but none was seriously injured.”

  9. oldbrew says:

    Pot calls kettle black 😎

    Wikipedia labels Daily Mail as ‘unreliable’ and bans it as a source for entries

  10. oldbrew says:

    100 sailors trapped in Arctic ice

    On board the vessels are up to 100 people faced with the prospect of a long winter ahead. The ships might be stuck until the ice starts to break up in early spring.

    The local power company is now connecting the vessels with power cables from land. The icebreaker gets 300 KW, while the cargo vessel has requested 200 KW.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Geoff Sharp says – February 8, 2017 at 5:04 am :

    ‘A new paper “A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity” uses a model based on Jupiter & Saturn.’

    Thanks for the link. There’s also a section ‘4.1 Other planetary effects ‘ with a paragraph starting ‘As to planets Uranus and Neptune…’.

    Ref. 15 in the paper: G.J.Sharp, “Are Uranus & Neptune Responsible for Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation? . IJAA 3, 260 (2013)”

  12. oldbrew says:

    Climate Skeptic Willie Soon Addresses Packed Audience in L.A.

    For all the focus on carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas in the climate system was water vapor, he said. And carbon dioxide, he noted, was not a “pollutant,” as the term was conventionally used.

    While it was true that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide had been increasing, he said, and had passed 400 parts per million, the dominant effect of water vapor had helped flatten the greenhouse effect, such that the rise of global surface temperatures had slowed significantly.

  13. oldmanK says:

    Another fresh interesting paper : (but cannot get full pdf)

    Title “Large 14C excursion in 5480 BC indicates an abnormal sun in the mid-Holocene “. Another date I have anticipated. Earth tilt change hi>low. Had the sun something to do with that? – probably but not directly.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Once again failing miserably to consider natural changes could be occurring right now…

    Sea-level change in Southeast Asia 6,000 years ago has implications for today

    ‘In a paper published in Nature Communications, Horton, Kopp, Ashe, lead author Aron Meltzner and others report that the relative sea level around Belitung Island in Indonesia rose twice just under 2 feet in the period from 6,850 years ago to 6,500 years ago. That this oscillation took place without any human-assisted climate change suggests to Kopp, Horton and their co-authors that such a change in sea level could happen again now, on top of the rise in sea level that is already projected to result from climate change. This could be catastrophic for people living so close to the sea.’

    Read more at:

    Not only ‘could happen again now’ but probably IS happening now, to some extent at least. But they are too fearful to admit even the possibility 😦

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    Politics is deathly boring.
    Our Sun is the only star capable of keeping our climate discussion worthwhile & interesting.

    The major fault (a west coast US line of infiltration and hijacking aiming to control the opposition) has been deterred. We can get back to exploring nature’s beauty.

    A serious wrong turn was made:
    2004 German academic perspective on mass distribution & transport:

    Click to access MassTransportAndDistributionInTheEarthSystem.pdf

    Correcting wrong turns:
    2017: _ _ [TPW = true polar wander]
    TPW- and continental drift-driven decrease in insolation forcing over the last 20 Myr rivals changes in insolation forcing caused by variations in Earth’s obliquity and precession.
    Daradich, Huybers, Mitrovica, Chan, and Austermann The influence of true polar wander on glacial inception in North America, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2017.

    Click to access Daradich_EPSL2017.pdf

    Ice melt can’t explain rotation before 700AD:

    Click to access Hay_EPSL2016.pdf

    (Background link: )

    Mid-ocean ridge CO2 provocation and more:

  16. Paul Vaughan says:

    Click to access Kutterolf_Geology2012.pdf

    ties 41k pacific cycle of volcanism to mass balance, plate loading and isostasy
    has a clue about precipitation (not just insolation) — understands heavy snowfall piles up high and takes forever to melt — function of topography and circulation, not latitude — Bill Illis can take a lesson from Huybers

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Integrating over the global ocean, the Southern Ocean is dominant, as the inversion indicates that almost 60% of the ocean volume originates from south of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical front.”

    Click to access Gebbie_JPO2010.pdf

    20/20 hindsight

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    Huyber’s drew the same conclusion as Rial:
    Antarctica leads Greenland by 1/4 cycle:

    Click to access Huybers_QSR2004.pdf

    Notice how the statistical model assumption of random lag error fails due to the de Vries cycle. Huybers failed to interpret this correctly, as do all academics who get lost in statistical modeling assumptions. This has stirred up a new line of investigation…

  19. oldbrew says:

    Discover your own exoplanet(s)

    Scientists make huge dataset of nearby stars available to public

  20. Sphene says:

    Is an exoplanet influencing its star?

         ” The planet, named HAT-P-2b, tracks its star in a highly eccentric orbit, flying extremely close to and around the star, then hurtling far out before eventually circling back around.”

         ” Each time the planet passed behind the star, the researchers saw something unexpected: Instead of a flat line, representing a momentary drop as the planet is masked by its star, they observed tiny spikes—oscillations in the star’s light, with a period of about 90 minutes, that happened to be exact multiples of the planet’s orbital frequency.”

  21. oldbrew says:

    Sphene: Interesting stuff.

    Timo Niroma observed Jupiter affecting sunspots at perihelion i.e. they stopped for a day or two.
    That was the claim at least.

  22. Roger Clague says:

    _Air conditioning on a roll

    Application of physics of absorption and emission in the atmosphere to create a useful result

    Glass beads are used to produce IR that passes thru the atmospheric widow.
    This causes cooling of 90W/m^2 at a cost of 50 pence per m^2

  23. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rejecting cultural coercion to screen observation according to imagined limits, natural learning opportunities are infinite. Without imagined limits on direction, we’re free to find the way faster.

    Justice 101: Explanation is spin; report just observations.

    From Sphene’s link:
    “There is a physical link between the two, but at this stage, we actually can’t explain it. So these are mysterious pulsations induced by the star’s companion.”

    Perfect. They acknowledge observation simply exceeds theoretical imagination. This is powerfully beautiful.

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    Following the link a step further to the original article notice the focus on both continuous and discrete effects of eccentricity on circulatory structure change:;

    Note links below the article to broaden and enrich awareness with comparative perspective. This should help us sort our thinking…

  25. oldbrew says:

    Timo Niroma wrote:

    Another interesting paper by NASA was titled “The Day the Solar Wind Disappeared”
    I quote: “From May 10-12, 1999, the solar wind that blows constantly from the Sun virtually disappeared — the most drastic and longest-lasting decrease ever observed.” … “Starting late on May 10 and continuing through the early hours of May 12, NASA’s ACE and Wind spacecraft each observed that the density of the solar wind dropped by more than 98%.” … “According to observations from the ACE spacecraft, the density of helium in the solar wind dropped to less than 0.1% of its normal value, and heavier ions, held back by the Sun’s gravity, apparently could not escape from the Sun at all.”

    According to NGDC, the Wolf sunspot number got a jump a few days earlier: 08 May the number was 151 and 09 May it was 149, when the first-May value was 75 and the peak was followed by a decrease, so that the value was 85 in May 24. Compare these to the smoothed value of May, 90.

    According to my theory the Jupiter’s perihelion very much regulates the sunspot cycles. The last Jovian perihelion occurred just during those days in May 1999, when the Sun appeared to behave abnormally. But the effect does not include only those few days, it affects the whole cycle.
    – – –
    Was that a ‘mysterious pulsation’ perhaps?

  26. oldbrew says:

    Think You Can Find Planet 9? Check Out This Citizen-Science Project

  27. oldbrew says:

    Trump’s likely science adviser calls climate scientists ‘glassy-eyed cult’

    Happer said he began to question the emerging consensus view on climate change while working as director of research at the Department of Energy as part of the George W Bush administration. Climate scientists would “grudgingly” present their work to administrators, he claims, while those in other fields would share their results with enthusiasm. “I would ask questions but they were evasive and wouldn’t answer,” he said. “This experience really soured me on the community. I started reading up and I realised why they weren’t answering the questions: because they didn’t have good answers. It was really at that point that I began to get seriously worried about climate as a science.”

  28. oldbrew says:

    EU doles out taxpayers’ money to this compressed air storage project.

    A 330 MW compressed air energy storage (CAES) project in Larne, Northern Ireland, being developed by utility Gaelectric and technology partner Dresser-Rand, is set to receive €90m. The project will store power from excess renewable generation in two underground salt caverns for later release. The project “will contribute to system flexibility and stability and facilitate the large-scale penetration of renewables into energy markets,” the Commission said.

    ‘facilitate the large-scale penetration of renewables into energy markets’ – in their dreams anyway 😐

  29. oldbrew says:

    Can anyone figure out what this job is?

    Head of Engagement
    Salary within the range of £43,173 to £56,205 pa inclusive.
    This is a full-time post and for 3 years, in the first instance

    The Grantham Research Institute is a world-leading research centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science for the study of the economics and social sciences of climate change and other global environmental problems. We are seeking a highly-motivated professional to play a leading role in increasing the impact of the work of the Institute through increasing our communications and engagement with decision-makers in the public and private sectors, in the UK and abroad.
    – – –
    LSE is a university – amongst other things it seems.

    The appointee might be working for, with, or taking over from (?), this person.

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    Intelligence exists. Outside of the online climate discussion some people actually have a clue about precession:

  31. oldbrew says:

    PV: yes, I saw that one last week.

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, I had never heard of that site before you linked to it. There are a lot of provocative articles upon first glance. Refreshing upon first glance at least.

    I’ve been taking another look at Peter Huybers’ thesis. It also reassures that intelligent life does exist.

    Climate blogs have gotten into a real rut since November. Part of the answer may be branching out into lots of new territory because intelligent life vacated the climate blogs after the belief-policing went overboard.

  33. oldmanK says:

    PV’s link is of some interest, for its correlations. But they are shooting at a target on a barn door and missed the barn door.

    Specific dates like 11,700 is the end of the YD. Between “11,000 and 5,500 years ago” is a raft of specific dates of changes; between ” 5,500 and 5,000 years ago” is 3200bce (precisely 3195) – a very specific date. And the date correlate with civilisations collapse from the old world that are well known.

    Then eccentricity and precession do not work at such short time spans and abrupt events (you won’t see such sharp level changes if it was not abrupt). Obliquity?! (I rest my case).

  34. oldbrew says:

    Jo Nova sums up wind energy:
    ‘So in a modern renewable grid we have variations in supply and demand that are of the order of the average grid load and at the whim of The Wind. What could possibly go wrong?’

    SA Blackout: a grid crippled by complexity

  35. oldmanK says:

    Further to the/my above post, something from JCCurry’s page, here: particularly this: shows something of interest. Compared to archaeological evidence it provides for a little insight.

    Curve of %HSG shows a sharp rise (it is really a sudden drop in count — which is to be expected after a major disturbance has passed) at 5200BP (3200bce). An event in the archeological record similar to ~7200BP. The 7200-5200 is a sawtooth that is itself ratcheting. 9200 to 7200 is another sawtooth subject to similar conditions. Previous is ???? from archaeo. Post 4800BP is a more quiet period — there is no change archaeo-wise post 4200BP (2200bce) to present.

    The Holocene Max and the ‘Neoglacial’ are really incomparable. From 20k to present, which includes the Dryas period, what appears is a chaotic behaviour.

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, precession shapes tropical hydrology. Climate is neither univariate nor globally uniform. The online climate discussion is completely off the rails about what precession does and does not affect and where. People have understood the concerns you have raised. There’s a communication breakdown and it’s big.

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    Outside-of-the-box provocation: The communication breakdown is so extreme that it may demand paradoxical solution. For example in order to jar minds free of thinking inconsistent with records it may be necessary to take one step backwards. Only then will eyes open to see which alternate direction allows 2 steps forward. Specifically were I the teacher with power to set the agenda I might lose my students briefly by banning focus on obliquity in order to force their focus on what they have permanently failed to see about precession and eccentricity. So at least temporarily: Obliquity be gone!!

  38. Paul Vaughan says:

    Looked through the D-O article. It’s too long. Digest articles like that make the discussion worse, not better. That should have been chopped up into more than a dozen little pieces (a series of soundbite-short posts, each focused on 1, 2, or 3 illustrations) and spread out over weeks with a little presented every few days. (Long articles induce skiing (skimming and skipping).)

    There’s a lot of misinformation in the article. Correcting such intense framing will have to start with a focused provocation. It looks like it has to be something like banning focus on the mean so people will be forced to recognize volatility structure …so here’s the 1 stand-out take-away:

    Another dead-obvious problem is that Rial’s 1/4 cycle insights (not 1/2) keep getting ignored. This is a hard fail and it looks like deliberate distortion. Razing versus raising: Ignoring 1/4 cycle core structure razes trust and raises suspicion of a questionable agenda.

    Well, at least there was 1 cute graph (the only gem take-away worth saving and committing to memory…)

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rial isn’t even cited in the article! What a massively glaring oversight. I call corrupt agenda.

  40. oldbrew says:

    Tim Cullen writes:

    Interestingly, a coherent cessation of lead emissions at multiple study sites after ~5400 yr BP coincides with the onset of dry conditions found in regional paleoclimate proxy records.

    After ~5000 yr BP, lead concentrations on both Isle Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula remain at background levels until the onset of modern lead pollution ~ AD 1860.

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    The thing to note above is that D-O volatility structure matches sea level. (There are lots of other (unneeded) curves on the graph distracting focus from this simplicity.)

    Recall that Bill Illis has occasionally mentioned this sea level effect on circulatory hydrology. (I do not recall him having the lucidity to specify the volatility over the mean, so I suspect the maturity of his awareness is partial and vague while his general instincts have merit.)

    Years from now if integrity is ever established to improve terrestrial civilization I’ll use whatever remaining time and ability I have left in my earthly life to (when not hiking and kayaking) pioneer volatility methods still missing from earthly discourse (extensible to generalized multi-moment).

    The mean is just the first moment attracting conscious attention. (Stopping there blinds.)

  42. Paul Vaughan says:

    Topological circulatory reconfiguration reshapes volatility bounds. Because of the spatial dimensions, boundaries on temporal volatility are not specified by a static superposition of low-order empirical temporal component means. This is a matter of recognizing the difference between what’s necessary and what’s sufficient. Would the temporal volatility structure be specified by the envelope of time-only empirical components if hydrology was steered by a static, uniform surface? (…and does it matter (for anything other than academic purposes) since we don’t have that?) The preceding can probably be expressed better some day, but for now crude expression remains a starting point.

  43. oldbrew says:

    Bye bye NASA…

    The NASA Transition Act 2017 has just been passed by the Federal Senate.

    In the words of Congressman Lamar Smith, chairman of the House Science Committee, this act refocusses NASA away from climate, towards space science.

    Smith: ‘there are another dozen agencies that study earth science and climate change, and they can continue to do that.’

  44. oldbrew says:

    Fake news classic from DW.COM…here’s a picture of colourless, odourless, harmless carbon dioxide and/or water vapour [see caption below]

    Caption: ‘Belchatow Power Station, Europe’s largest coal-fired power plant, belches CO2 into the air. Poland is heavily invested in coal-fired power generation, and for many years has attempted to slow progress on European and global climate protection agreements’

    – – –
    Daytime pic of the same power station, from Wikipedia

  45. oldbrew says:

    The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event
    Authors: Shineng Hu, Alexey V. Fedorov
    First Online: 20 February 2017

    At the beginning of 2015, as one year earlier in 2014, the scientific community anticipated that El Niño conditions could develop in the tropical Pacific by year-end. Such projections were related to the occurrence of westerly wind bursts during winter–spring of each year that generated strong downwelling Kelvin waves indicative of an emerging El Niño. However, the event’s progression quickly stalled in 2014, but actively continued in 2015, leading to an extreme warm event (comparable to 1997 or 1982). Here, we compare climate evolution during these two years using satellite observations and numerical simulations. We show that during 2014, El Niño development was interrupted mid-year by an exceptionally strong easterly wind burst, whereas during the second year it continued through the summer. Further, we show that the failed 2014 event created favorable conditions for El Niño development during the next year, as it kept ocean heat content recharged and the western Pacific warm pool extended eastward. Subsequently, the winter–spring westerly wind bursts in 2015 were followed by a series of state-dependent westerly bursts as part of a strong positive Bjerknes feedback. Analogue simulations with a coupled GCM wherein we superimpose the observed sequences of westerly and easterly wind bursts support these conclusions, stressing the role of the failed 2014 event in preconditioning the ocean–atmosphere system for the development of an extreme El Niño. In our simulations the probability of an extreme event following early-year westerly wind bursts increases from 14% to nearly 60% due to this preconditioning. Thus, the interplay between westerly and easterly wind bursts shapes El Niño development and diversity.

  46. oldbrew says:

    Netherlands: A silver lining for renewables?

    ‘Despite its beautiful windmills, the Netherlands doesn’t rank that high for renewable energy production, and might miss its 2020 target. The good news is that it has launched an ambitious campaign for zero-emission public transport by 2025.’
    – – –
    Q: That’s fine but what is being used to generate the electricity?
    A: ‘In 2014, renewable energies accounted for 5,0% of the Netherlands’ final energy consumption.’

    So their electric buses are mainly running on the output of fuel-fired power stations 😐

    Good for air quality in towns but not much to do with anything else.

  47. Paul Vaughan says:

    study claiming “climate change” both increasing and decreasing lake levels and asserting this cannot be natural:

    Spin aside, the observations are interesting.

  48. Sphene says:

    An interesting claim of an Earth-Mars orbital resonance transition 87 mya…

         ” Using evidence from alternating layers of limestone and shale laid down over millions of years in a shallow North American seaway at the time dinosaurs held sway on Earth, the team…discovered the 87 million-year-old signature of a “resonance transition” between Mars and Earth.”

  49. oldbrew says:

    Sphene – it sounds a bit unlikely IMO, but I haven’t seen their evidence.

  50. oldbrew says:

    How Galileo Proved Which Ideas Were False
    Published on February 23, 2017
    Written by Dr Jerry L Krause

    ‘…the practice of Galileo’s sciences has become so corrupted that even doubting the validity of an established scientific idea is considered to be anti-science. A doubter is considered a denier.’

  51. oldbrew says:

    The old aerosol argument is trying to make a comeback. Oceanic cycles like the PDO are ignored – no mention in their paper:

    Air pollution may have masked mid-20th Century sea ice loss
    February 23, 2017

    ‘In a new study, recently recovered Russian observations show an increase in sea ice from 1950 to 1975 as large as the subsequent decrease in sea ice observed from 1975 to 2005.’

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Russia is not in the Pacific but what is behind the PDO changes? Not aerosols for sure.

    Pacific Decadal Oscillation

    ‘There is evidence of reversals in the prevailing polarity (meaning changes in cool surface waters versus warm surface waters within the region) of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977’

  52. oldbrew says:


    “What we see in the published literature is a highly curated version of what’s actually happened”

  53. oldbrew says:

  54. Paul Vaughan says:

    The article flagged by Sphene looks significant and worthwhile, but it’s paywalled:

    Theory of chaotic orbital variations confirmed by Cretaceous geological evidence

    From the graphs on the abstract page I see evolutive harmonic analysis that can be further generalized. The choice of the label “chaos” is unfortunate. The technical meaning of the term is unacceptably far from the everyday meaning and so in climate discussion (where there’s always political charge) it is strictly impossible to have a sensible discussion about chaos. Making matters even worse, commentators fail to differentiate conceptually between temporal and spatiotemporal chaos.

    My instinct is that this hidden paper is a good clue about resonance transitions, but I’m absolutely confident that it will NEVER be discussed sensibly in online climate discussions, which will be fatally corrupt for at least many decades to come …unless perhaps California-based belief agents are removed from discussion (and not replaced). The lack of expedience in removing these dark agents from their corrupting roles has long been the absolutely transparent clue of something unacceptably shady. Whoever backs them is EXTREMELY hubristic. This is a fascinating chapter in how far some hubristic people will push. It’s always amazing to see how far it goes wrong. People are so stupid and gullible. Sometimes it’s both horrifying and comical to see how far the pendulum arm can be pushed before it gets so high and unsupportable that it just falls.

  55. oldbrew says:

    The boiling carbon myth…

    Journalists’ Tendencies to “Boil-over”
    By Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser

    Politics aside, there is a variety of “science news” that makes you wonder. A case in point is the news about a recent publication by scientists at the University of Royal Holloway London (URH) with headlines like:
    “Massive pool of boiling carbon that could cause CLIMATE CHAOS discovered,” or
    “Huge sea of BOILING CARBON — the size of MEXICO — is sitting beneath USA.”

    Dr Kaiser: ‘carbon only MELTS at around 4000 °C (much higher number in °F), so that carbon must be BOILING at a yet higher temperature.’
    – – –
    As he explains, it’s all nonsense.

  56. oldbrew says:

    NTZ: Blockbuster Paper Finds Just 15% Of CO2 Growth Since Industrialization Is Due To Human Emissions

    CO2 Has Risen By 110 ppm Since 1750
    The Human Contribution Is Just 17 ppm

    The anthropogenic contribution to the actual CO2 concentration is found to be 4.3%, its fraction to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era is 15% and the average residence time 4 years.

    These results indicate that almost all of the observed change of CO2 during the Industrial Era followed, not from anthropogenic emission, but from changes of natural emission.

    – See more at:

  57. Paul Vaughan says:

    Yes OB maybe give 20 seconds for something to actually happen before reporting! (or 2 years)

    Meanwhile here are links to the article Sphene mentioned plus related material (orbital resonance transitions and simple rules for predictable glaciations):

    Click to access Meyers%20Nature.pdf

    Click to access tZEDAKIS%20Simple%20rule%20for%20interglacial%20timing.pdf

    Click to access Ma%20Meyers%20sageman%20Nature%202017.pdf

    These links are infinitely more worthy of attention than streaming NON-news.

    The naivety people had about Trump is a joke of infinite proportions — just beyond ridiculous …as if his mere election would change the universe itself. Usually it’s the right correctly calling the left dreamers, but during this Trump round we’ve crystal-clarified that righties can also be crazy dreamers. Brexit was significant but purported parallels don’t pass inspection. The US problem can’t be solved by any election. The problem is they’re wasting totally insane amounts of time and energy on infighting. Neither of the next 2 elections will fix that either (obviously!)

    Orbitally simple rules for glaciation… (it’s a simple threshold…) — (sarc) don’t click the links — you may miss BREAKING NEWS (/sarc)

  58. oldmanK says:

    Sphene’s article in his post has become irresistible not to respond. It is another “Milankovitch theory” on the ice ages. Another one explaining why the 100k eccentricity signal – the weakest- can predominate. However the subject of oldbrew’s later post on February 24, 2017 at 9:09 am at may be invoked in this matter. The root of the matter here is ‘evidence’.

    A basic tenet of the Milankovitch theory is the determination of obliquity in the millennial past. It is at the root of the question – and the problem-. That is here being questioned and contradicted. There is more solid evidence that indicates obliquity does not follow the way Milankovitch and science have assumed.

    Let’s put the ‘alternative fact’ to the test. If obliquity is, or better, abruptly goes very low there will be no obliquity signal in the ice proxies (and no precession either). That leaves the eccentricity signal as a default. Can it happen? It has – repeatedly; and the signature is in the proxies correctly where archaeology predicted they will be.

    The following quote from one of the links is quite appropriate: “It is somewhat ironic that climate and sedimentological processes seem to respond to astronomical forcing in a rather simple way, but that the planets are not so predictable after all.”

    I recall it said that insolation as at present obliquity, precludes the formation of ice caps at both poles. (but one can infer that very low obliquity drives a colder ice age).

    Here on the MT says :
    ‘’’’’What should be clear from this small foray into the subject is that there is no “Milankovitch theory”.
    There are many theories with a common premise – solar insolation changes via orbital changes “explain” the start and end of ice ages – but then each with a contradictory theory of how this change is effected. Therefore, a maximum of one of these theories is correct.
    And my current perspective – and an obvious one from reading over 50 papers on the causes of the ice ages – is the number of confusingly-named “Milankovitch theories” that are correct is zero.’’’’

  59. Poly says:

    I read the papers in your links above.
    Thank you for posting them.
    They are real climate science gems among the rest of the political/policy sludge around here.

  60. Paul Vaughan says:

    Poly, ERSSTv4 should have been retracted and ERSSTv3b2 reinstated ON DAY 1.
    INSTEAD ERSSTv5 — MORE corrupt than ERSSTv4 — was crept in as the final step in the 2 step incremental creep to endgame.
    THAT is what happened under Trump.
    “Naive” does not even begin convey the reality. People are SUCH suckers.
    The left have achieved their endgame AND THEY DID IT UNDER TRUMP.

    The links are a refreshing escape from the even-more-degraded than-usual climate blogging we’ve endured since November 2016.

  61. oldbrew says:

  62. Paul Vaughan says:

    There’s an interesting monthly volatility in northern winter in that graph OB. Endless discoveries that would have been explored thoroughly and reported formally in an alternate timeline….

  63. oldbrew says:

    Report: Was ancient Earth surrounded by a solid SHELL? New theory suggests plate tectonics began later than previously thought

    ‘We conclude that a multi-stage process produced Earth’s first continents in a “stagnant lid” scenario before plate tectonics began.’

    Read more:

  64. Paul Vaughan says:

    2016 – The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations + 2017 corrigendum

    1 step back before we can take 2 steps forward — FOCUS ON WHAT IS RIGHT ABOUT PRECESSION

  65. oldbrew says:

    PV – Ralph Ellis was also saying the ‘100,000’ year period was likely to be a mix of two cycle lengths (i.e. 4 or 5 cycles).

    ‘the true Ice Age cycle is not a single 100 k fluctuation at all, but multiples of smaller 21,700 year oscillations.’

  66. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, the first thing I recommend is SORTING what affects what …starting with what precession affects — not what it doesn’t affect but rather what it ABSOLUTELY DOES affect …and never mind the other stuff for a minute. Climate is multivariate.

    And here’s an interesting comment from Bill Illis on glaciers bouncing the crust up and down cyclically:

    Snow on a trampoline.

    I get really annoyed sometimes about all the obsession with melt when the really fun stuff is firehosed summer snow. I think people forget the difference between east coasts and west coasts and the different time of year of the firehosing up from the nearest ocean gyres. For example the elevation of the Canadian Shield those summers was enough to make it cold and cloudy — not much sunlight getting through, but lots of summer snow from the Atlantic.

    Precession is the firehose. With a firehose from one gyre at one time of year and the other at the other time of year, you get accumulation regardless of precession. That’s eccentricity. (Never mind obliquity. We go one step backwards before we take 2 steps forward…)

    If Ralph looks at the volatility structure he’ll see it’s not multiples. Rather it’s simple aliasing. …but he’s free to look at it however he wants as is everyone else BELIEF POLICE BE D*MN*D!!! Go Ralph GO! Believe WHATEVER YOU WANT buddy!!! Nobody can tell you what to believe Ralph. Nobody. You’re free!!!

  67. Paul Vaughan says:

    Maybe I’ll have to drag out the JRA map animations of maximum daily precipitation again to remind of the east coast / west coast timing symmetry. Too much of this temporal thinking without enough care for changing spatial pattern. The east coasts get hosed by adjacent summer waters, but west coasts get hosed late fall and winter in the north (mirror image across the gyre). And where is this in the eccentricity story? Not where it should be is the short answer. People just won’t and don’t do spatiotemporal. So the bottom line there is it doesn’t matter how the zero degree C isotherm snakes in space; the integral spells eccentricity. It CAN’T be anything BUT a simple threshold. Rain or snow — piles up or runs off. Linear thinking’s insane with a switch at 0.

    How long before they realize SCD’s the same as the second variable in the new glacial-interglacial timing paper? It’s just a more generalized measure. Like I said years ago they can just extend Milankovitch to subsume the solar cycle. The proof was given years ago in algebraic form. Simple’s as beautiful as beautiful’s simple.

  68. oldbrew says:

    Germany’s power grid almost collapsed in January due to poor performance from wind turbines and solar panels, according to data from a major trade union.

    Wind and solar power plants under-performed in January, 2017, because of cloudy weather with little or no wind, setting the stage for massive blackouts.

    “The renewables could not even offer five percent [of total power demand.]”

    Read more:

  69. oldbrew says:

    ETH Zurich. “Why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years: Climate and feedback effects explained.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 7 August 2013.

  70. Paul Vaughan says:

    Let’s see how the sorting’s going…

    True -or- False?
    Polar glaciation almost exactly follows precession.

    Tropical hydrology almost exactly follows precession.

    Let’s get our species recognition in order…

    True or false:
    Tropical hydrology following precession seesaws spatially across the equator.

    true –or– false
    Polar north and south are 1/4 cycle apart.

    True or False?
    polar south and north seesaw (i.e. 1/2 cycle apart)

    Judith Curry long ago said taxonomy is unimportant. SHE WAS WRONG. People who SORT their thinking are resistant to belief policing campaigns. How inconvenient for politicians …JC included. A dog is not a cat and a black spruce is not an oak.

    Some of the things people THINK precession “SHOULD” do are funny. Meanwhile they don’t even bother noticing what it actually does …and the people who see 1/2-cycle-apart north-&-south are ignoring Jose Rial’s classic insights, on bad drugs, OR BOTH.

    1/4 eccentricity cycle polar ice phase relations
    1/2 precession cycle tropical hydrology phase relations

    At wuwt you can see verbose discussion where NO ONE explicitly nails the simplicity. It’s a little too transparent that the simple truth is avoided. Is it that they don’t have any bright commentators capable of sorting tropical monsoon derivatives from polar ice integrals?? …or is there maybe some political reason why they want their audience blurring the line between these 2 distinct species? (maybe both)

    North-south symmetry would be needed to get the THEORETICAL 0 integral from the nonlinear ice switch …but IT DOESN’T EXIST! That’s why there’s no OBSERVED 0 integral. Nonlinearly imbalanced volatility asymmetry simply gets recorded.

    Why do they avoid these 2 distinct simple truths at wuwt? Nobody knows…

  71. oldbrew says:

    After he’s finished trashing Bill Nye, Lubos Motl’s blog post goes on to discuss long-term climate changes.

    This was the most interesting bit for me:
    ‘In the somewhat recent era, periodic continental ice sheets only started to be created some 2.6 million years ago when Quaternary began. (The previous sentence is a tautology that follows from the definition of the Quaternary and especially of its beginning.) In the previous 20 million years, the Neogene, there weren’t ever big continental ice sheets.’
    – – –
    Tectonics and paleoclimate

    During the Pliocene, large polar ice caps started to develop and Antarctica became the frozen continent that it is today.

    It is uncertain what caused this climate cooling during the Pliocene. [bold added]

    [NB the Pliocene was the final part of the Neogene]

    The closing of the land gap between N. and S. America may have been a factor.

  72. oldmanK says:

    The paper in PV’s link Paul Vaughan says: February 28, 2017 at 5:38 pm is of particular interest at my end, but from different considerations.

    Starting from fig1, and fig5, the clearest trace indicating glacial conditions is sea level variations. It is a saw tooth that ramps down to a trip point. Timing is in reality indeterminate (though the 100ky may seem applicable – at an earlier age 41ky was a likelier period. However both may be just ‘red herrings’-misleading clues). The rise is sharp in comparison, and accelerates after triggering, relatively smooth, no ratcheting. Then look at the slope. It is a length of time of back-and-forth ratcheting, up to an indeterminate level where a triggering occurs. Triggering seems to follow on a increasing eccentricity from low (but only during this period of time; ie an influence from eccentricity; earlier, 1-2.5My is different, see link below – geologic).

    B Illis (in reply to Javier of ‘Nature Unbound I; here: Bill Illis February 28, 2017 at 4:05 pm ) brings up an interesting point. It is glacial isostacy ( . That then harks back to D P Rubincam’s ‘Climate friction’ theory, where the periodic build up and melting of ice caps alters the obliquity. The ‘build up and melting’ is described/proposed as a process that causes obliquity to creep. It is repetitive. The ratcheting of the slope may be indicative of such a process. It is a process in an unstable system, as is indicative here: or here:

    Again, that process is evident in the archaeological record between 6200-2000bce. That record gives an obliquity way below the 22-24deg. limit (an iron ball shackled to progress IMO)

  73. oldbrew says:

    Then there’s magnetic declination…

    Select ‘Modeled Historical Track of Poles’.
    Select Arctic or Antarctic (on right).

    Both are currently on the ‘Line of zero declination (agonic line)’ – the green line.

  74. oldbrew says:

    Insight into a physical phenomenon that leads to earthquakes
    Date: February 22, 2017
    Source: University of Pennsylvania

    Summary: Researchers provide insight into a phenomenon called ageing that leads to more powerful earthquakes

  75. oldbrew says:

    UK nuclear power stations ‘could be forced to close’ after Brexit

    Leaving Euratom treaty will shut down nuclear industry if international safety agreements are not made in time, MPs told

  76. Sphene says:

    Paul Vaughan on March 2, 2017 at 6:40 am posted:

    “life 4.3 billion years ago on earth…

    In the linked article, this about the dating of the rocks was interesting:

    ” O’Neil and his colleagues estimate the fossils are approximately 4.3 billion years old, based on techniques used to measure the age of ancient space rocks… He added that bands of zircon mixed into the sample, which would have likely formed later from melted bedrock, were determined to be at least 3.8 billion years old.”

  77. oldbrew says:

    Report: What are supercontinents and when did they exist?

    Supercontinents are fascinating subjects for scientists, but remain a source of intense debate.

    “For us, what is important is that a supercontinent is part of a cycle, with many things happening before it gets together, and many more happening when it breaks up. It’s these things that can tell us whether or not there was a supercontinent, more than its potential size,” Damian Nance, distinguished professor of geological sciences at Ohio University, told IBTimes UK.

    Such a cycle would last anything between 300 million and half-a-billion years.

  78. Paul Vaughan says:

    It started with life in volcano-dotted shallow oceans 4.3 billion years ago.
    ..and here’s a snapshot of religious evolution at a later date:

    “[…] Europeans “must lead the world against climate change skeptics.””

    What does any of it matter in the much, much bigger picture? Perhaps we’ll benefit from much broader perspective? …as if maybe it even maters! Maybe some of those Europeans have little or no sense of humor when they imagine Canada as the front line in a war of universal importance.

  79. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, good. In review: it’s spatiotemporal, not just temporal.
    We’re monitoring the discussion with great curiosity to see how long it takes for the first terrestrial ENSO prediction by analogy. Here’s a reminder:

  80. Paul Vaughan says:

    That was a great link on continent cycles OB.

  81. oldmanK says:

    Some interesting reading on ‘tectonics’ here:

    A different view that raises questions on the subject. To me (a lowly novice in the convent of heretical geology) particularly, a hint of why islands in the Med, northern hemisphere, rotate clockwise in a seismic convulsion.

  82. oldbrew says:

    China builds first ‘bird airport’ to attract feathered friends

    An airport for migratory birds is being created close to one of China’s most populous cities. It’s not as weird as it sounds.
    – – –
    [Russian] Government says new monster icebreaker will become reality

    It can break through five meter thick ice and escort large-size tankers through Arctic waters.
    According to Izvestia, the «Lider» will be able to break through two meter thick ice with a speed of 14 knots.

    Not expecting any Arctic ‘death spirals’ in Russia 😐

  83. oldbrew says:

    New research on solar storms reveal surprising removal of electrons from large portions of Earth’s atmosphere

    “We made extensive measurements in connection with a specific solar storm over the Arctic in 2014, and here we found that electrons in large quantities are virtually vacuum-cleaned from areas extending over 500 to 1,000 kilometres. It takes place just south of an area with heavy increases in electron density, known as patches,” says Professor Per Høeg from DTU Space.

  84. Paul Vaughan says:

    From OB’s link:

    “At a more theoretical level, we have found out that during solar storms, electrons are removed in the ionosphere, which is the opposite of what you intuitively would expect.”

    This is the kind of thing I find creepy about people who conceptualize confidently from assumptions.

    THEY get creeped out by observations.

  85. oldbrew says:

    US media: Trump to cut climate programs at EPA and NOAA believes all the AGW hype so takes a dim view of anyone who doesn’t.

  86. oldbrew says:

    Geologist Exposes Climate Change Hoax – Video
    MARCH 3, 2017

    Australian Ian Plimer is a good public speaker.

  87. oldbrew says:

    Title: Space weather effects on airline communications in the high latitude regions

    The occurrence of ionospheric disturbances and disruption of radio communication follows the 11-year cycle in solar activity.

    I.E. the peak of the cycle is the ‘worst’ time.
    – – –
    The atmospheric atoms and molecules are impacted by the high energy the EUV and X-ray photons from the sun. The amount of energy (photon flux) at EUV and x-ray wavelengths varies by nearly a factor of ten over the 11 year solar cycle. The density of the ionosphere changes accordingly.
    – – –
    Plenty of short-term solar variability there.

  88. oldbrew says:

    Claims of alarming sea level rise on the USA’s coasts are somewhat exaggerated – or if you prefer: nonsense – assuming a recent study is correct.

    A New Analysis of Sea Level Rise Along the Coast of the United States

  89. oldbrew says:

    Another critique of climate models…

    The models have been “tuned” or “calibrated” to available 20th century surface data. As shown in
    the 2008 report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC, p. 9),
    even the available surface temperature data is very sparse and erratic. The only temperature data
    available of appropriate density are from satellites, which are largely ignored by the IPCC and its
    followers. There is no logical reason to assume that the projections / forecasts from global climate
    models are reliable. Taking an average of forecasts from unreliable models does not produce a
    reliable forecast.
    [bold added]

    When the results of these unreliable models, which have not been verified and validated, are
    applied to government policy, real economic harm occurs. The harm can be seen in carbon
    dioxide (CO2) emission reduction programs, the contrived “social cost of carbon”, exaggerated
    sea level rise, etc. Sharply increasing electricity costs in the U.K. and Germany are but one
    example. Upcoming TWTWs will discuss several other major issues concerning global climate

    Click to access TWTW3-4-17.pdf

    Quote of the Week. There’s a mighty big difference between good, sound reasons and reasons
    that sound good. – Burton Hillis (William Vaughn, American columnist)

  90. oldbrew says:

    For all of you out there with ITS…Dare to step away from the herd.

    We’re here to tell you there is HOPE!!!

  91. oldbrew says:

    Turbulence from seafloor topography may explain longstanding question about ocean circulation
    March 6, 2017 by Jennifer Chu

    Now scientists from MIT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and the University of Southampton in the U.K. have identified a mechanism by which waters may rise from the ocean’s depths to its uppermost layers. Their results are published today in the journal Nature Communications.

    Read more at:

  92. oldbrew says:

    From The Cosmic Tusk…

    Problem solved: Carolina Bays are shock liquefaction impact features from hypersonic ice boulders launched from the glacial ice sheet by a cosmic impact at the Younger Dryas

    Quote: Ellipses are mathematical conic sections formed by the intersection of a plane and a cone. The elliptical geomorphology of the Carolina Bays and the Nebraska Rainwater Basins can be explained if the bays originated from slanted conical cavities that were later remodeled into shallow depressions by geological processes. A width-to-length ratio of 0.58 corresponds to a cone inclined at 35° using the relationship sin(θ) = W/L. The proposed conical cavities could have been made by impacts of material ejected at approximately 35° in ballistic trajectories from the point of convergence in the Great Lakes Region. The small variations of the width-to-length ratio correspond to slightly different angles that are consistent with possible ballistic trajectories.
    . . .
    The radial orientation of the Carolina Bays and Nebraska Rainwater Basins toward a convergence point in Michigan (Davias and Harris, 2015) and the elliptical shapes of the bays with specific width-to-length ratios can be better explained by impact mechanisms than by terrestrial wind and water processes.
    – – –
    Carolina bays are elliptical depressions concentrated along the Atlantic seaboard within coastal Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, and northcentral Florida.
    . . .
    About 500,000 of them are present in the classic area of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, often in groups, with each bay invariably aligned in a northwest-southeast direction. [bold added]

    The paper ends with this:
    Further study of the Carolina Bays may provide detailed insights about the late Pleistocene and reveal information about near-Earth objects that could destroy our civilization.

  93. Paul Vaughan says:

    Noteworthy from OB’s link is indication of opening minds:

    “”The general understanding is that abyssal waters take few to several thousand years to resurface […] If a considerable amount of such upwelling occurs rapidly along sloped boundaries, continental margins, and mid-ocean ridges, then the timescale of recycling of abyssal waters can be shorter.””

    I haven’t seen any convincing observation-based evidence that the timescale is above decadal. Most people following the climate discussion seem to buy the 1000 year timescale sales-pitch, but it appears entirely based upon false theoretical assumptions. This has been a problematic barrier to sensible discussion of observations. The number of commentators arguing from theory based on false assumptions is problematic. I regard this as a stubborn cultural obstacle. Trying to overcome an obstacle of this nature with facts will be too inefficient. Alternate means of correcting false assumptions will be needed to advance discussion towards respect for observations.

  94. oldbrew says:

    PV: Recent minima like Sporer, Dalton, Maunder etc. all occurred well within the last 1000 years so such a timescale for ocean recycling would seem excessive, unless the oceans are completely out of step with the rest of the climate – unlikely, maybe impossible.

  95. oldbrew says:

    Pres. Trump will like this…

    Global oil supply to lag demand after 2020 unless new investments are approved soon
    6 March 2017

    If prices go up, US shale oil output seems likely to follow.

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    April 2017 […]
    Possible damping model of the 6 year oscillation signal in length of day
    The decaying of the oscillation is mainly due to EM coupling at the CMB.
    A significant 6 year oscillation signal exists in the observed length-of-day (LOD) series […] the amplitude of this oscillation has been decreasing for the over past 50 years […] damping relaxation time τ (99.2 ± 0.8 years) […] providing constraints on the related physical parameters of the lowermost mantle. The dissipative effect of electromagnetic coupling at the core-mantle boundary is likely to be a primary factor to cause the decaying of the 6 year oscillation signal.

  97. Paul Vaughan says:

    Correlation between Large Scale Motions in the Liquid Core of the Earth and Geomagnetic Jerks, Earthquakes, and Variations in the Earth’s Length of Day
    […] correlation between seismicity, variations in the length of day, and geomagnetic jerks […] jerks precede with in-phase variations in the number of strong earthquakes with М > 6.5 and the rate of the length of day in the range of periods of 5–8 years.
    […] angular momentum exchange between the mantle and magnetic hydrodynamic (MHD) currents in the core. These variations indicate the existence of characteristic time variations within a period not longer than 10 years. Such variations in the liquid core are associated with geomagnetic jerks […] spectra and phase shift (not shown here) confirm that the filtered data are in-phase and have a joint maximum at approximately six years.
    […] the 20-year recurrence cycle of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 6 is similar to the variations in
    the length of day with a period of approximately 20 years […]
    […] spiral character of turbulent motions in the core […] convective flows ascending from the solid inner core to the mantle spin up under the influence of the Coriolis force and become spiral.

  98. Paul Vaughan says:

    Interannual variations in length of day and atmospheric angular momentum, and their seasonal associations with El Niño/Southern Oscillation-like sea surface temperature patterns
    05 November 2016
    […] seasonal connections between the interannual variations in LOD (length of day)/AAMglobe (the relative atmospheric angular momentum for the whole globe) and the ENSO-like SST […] centers of strongest variation in the AAMcolumn (the relative atmospheric angular momentum for an air column and the unit mass over a square meter) are located over the mid-latitudinal North Pacific in DJF and MAM (March, April, and May), and over the mid-latitudinal South Pacific in JJA (June, July, and August) and SON (September, October, and November). This suggests that the AAMcolumn over the mid-latitudinal Pacific around 30°N (30°S) dominate the modulation of Earth’s rotation rate, and then impact the variations in LOD during DJF and MAM (JJA and SON).

  99. Paul Vaughan says:

    2016 — Analysis of a Precambrian resonance-stabilized day length

    Click to access 1502.01421.pdf

    During the Precambrian era, Earth’s decelerating rotation would have passed a 21-hour period that would have been resonant with the semidiurnal atmospheric thermal tide […] sudden atmospheric temperature increase like the deglaciation period following a possible “snowball Earth” near the end of the Precambrian would break this resonance; the Marinoan and Sturtian glaciations seem the most likely candidates for this event.

  100. oldbrew says:

    Re: ‘The spectra and phase shift (not shown here) confirm that the filtered data are in phase and have a joint maximum at approximately six years. This period is not related to the solar activity; hence, it indicates that a possible core–mantle correlation exists’

    Six years (~5.997y) is also the axial period of the lunar nodal and apsidal cycles.

    The perigee moves 0.164 358 002° a day
    relative to the node, corresponding to 360°
    in a period p 2 190.340565 days. So, when
    the perigee of the Moon’s orbit coincides
    with the ascending node, then this situation
    repeats after 2190.340565 days. This period p
    corresponds to 5.996 667 350 anomalistic years,
    thus nearly an entire number of anomalistic

    de Rop:

  101. oldbrew says:

    USGS says ‘no getting out of this’: Major earthquake ‘certain’ to hit Southern California

    The average interval between quakes was found to be approximately 100 years, meaning the gap separating today from the 1857 earthquake is already 60 years more than the average.

    “Longer gaps have happened in the past, but we know they always do culminate in a large earthquake. There’s no getting out of this,” Scharer said.

  102. oldbrew says:

    America’s First Solar Roadway Is A Total Disaster

    Screenshots taken by Twitter users from the roadway’s official webcam show smoke coming out of a nearby electric box. Firefighters soon showed up to the scene, prompting the solar project’s official webcam to issue an update: “The Solar Roadways electrical system is currently undergoing maintenance. Please check back late next week.”

    Read more:

  103. Sphene says:

    Younger Dryas impact evidence may have been found in North American Clovis-culture archeaological sites:

    ” ‘The presence of elevated platinum in [Clovis] archaeological sites is a confirmation of data previously reported for the Younger-Dryas onset several years ago in a Greenland ice-core. The authors for that study concluded that the most likely source of such platinum enrichment was from the impact of an extraterrestrial object,’ Moore says.”

  104. oldmanK says:

    The cost of getting it wrong in nuclear. The emergency sets have been blamed for wrong setting. However, today with hind sight, I blame ‘privitisation for profit’ as the underlying cause – not only in Japan.

  105. oldbrew says:

    Causality of the drought in the southwestern United States based on observations

    Slow feature analysis is used to extract driving forces from the monthly mean anomaly time series of the precipitation in the southwestern United States (1895 to 2015). Four major spectral scales pass the 95% confidence test after wavelet analysis of the derived driving forces. Further harmonic analysis indicates that only two fundamental frequencies are dominant in the spectral domain. The frequencies represent the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and solar activity on the precipitation from the southwestern United States. In addition, solar activity has exerted a greater effect than PDO on the precipitation in the southwestern United States over the past 120 years. By comparing the trend of droughts with the two fundamental frequencies, we find that both the droughts in the 1900s and in the 21st century were affected by the PDO and solar activity, whereas the droughts from the 1950s to the 1970s were mainly affected by solar activity. [bold added]

  106. oldbrew says:

    Lubos Motl – Selection of climate model survivors isn’t the scientific method

    It’s classic data-fitting. There is zero scientific progress that can be achieved in this way.

    That blog post was prompted by this:

    My $1 Million Climate Model Bet
    Posted March 6th, 2017

    I can also build an accurate climate prediction model for any local geography. I can do it for the ocean or the air. And in each case, I have a 100% chance of getting the right answer to within half a degree.

    Would you take the bet?

    I’ll tell you the trick at the end. If you don’t understand how I plan to do it, you also won’t understand why this headline is hilarious nonsense.

  107. oldbrew says:

    Giant 3,000-year-old statue of Pharaoh Ramses II found buried in a Cairo slum is hailed as ‘one of the most important discoveries ever’

    Read more:

  108. Paul Vaughan says:

    2016 — Polar Motion of Titan

    subsurface ocean increases polar motion several orders of magnitude as a function of ice-shell thickness

    A 2009 paper suggests estimating Titan ice-shell thickness from Titan LOD observations (that differed from conventional modeling wisdom at the time by 2 orders of magnitude).

  109. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve been stalled for years with critically insufficient time and resources to pursue better edge methods, but it’s good and refreshing to see others with the luxury to stay on course. These authors report a 3-fold edge effect reduction in terrestrial polar motion estimation:

    2016 — Variable Chandler and Annual Wobbles in Earth’s Polar Motion During 1900–2015

    The authors suggest CW (Chandler wobble) amplitude is currently at a historic low. They also point to a centennial-timescale trend in the eccentricity of the AW (annual wobble).

    We’ve got to get our eye back on the ball. Too much of this politics stuff since November 2016 is taking us absolutely nowhere.

  110. Paul Vaughan says:

    Reminding us about which statistics are bounded and which are not:

    2016 — Residual polar motion caused by coseismic and interseismic deformations from 1900 to present
    We challenge the perspective that seismicity could contribute to polar motion by arguing quantitatively that, in first approximation and on the average, interseismic deformations can compensate for it. This point is important because what we must simulate and observe in Earth Orientation Parameter time-series over intermediate timescales of decades or centuries is the residual polar motion resulting from the two opposing processes of coseismic and interseismic deformations. […] Taken together, coseismic and interseismic deformations make the rotation pole wander around the north pole with maximum polar excursions of about 1 m. In particular, the rotation pole moves towards about Newfoundland when the interseismic contribution dominates over the coseismic ones (i.e. during phases of low seismicity or, equivalently, when most of the fault system associated with plate boundaries is locked). When megathrust earthquakes occur, instead, the rotation pole is suddenly shifted in an almost opposite direction, towards about 133°E.

  111. Paul Vaughan says:

    2016 — Elliptic polarisation of the polar motion excitation

    “[…] the hydro-atmospheric matter term tends to be maximal in the geographic areas surrounding the great meridian circle of longitude ∼80∘ or ∼260∘ East.”

  112. oldbrew says:

    PV – re ‘When megathrust earthquakes occur, instead, the rotation pole is suddenly shifted in an almost opposite direction, towards about 133°E.’

    The Wilkes Land ‘gravity anomaly’ is at ~137°E (see Figs.1 and 2 in the full paper)

  113. oldbrew says:

    Two pieces of excellent news from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) show that incoming administrator Scott Pruitt is doing the Lord’s work.

    First, he has come clean and said what he should have ‘fessed up to a while back: he doesn’t believe in the Carbon Fairy.
    . . .
    …the second piece of good news is that the Environmental Protection Agency has just lost its head of Environmental Justice.

  114. oldbrew says:

    They may be catching on very slowly while still clinging to airy-fairy theories….


    The new model demonstrates that since 1979 a shift in wind patterns is responsible for about 60 percent of sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean.

    Much of this shift is related to climate change, but the study finds that 30 to 50 percent of the observed sea ice loss is due to natural variations in this large-scale atmospheric pattern.

    According to the researchers, the long-term cycles are thought to be driven by the tropical Pacific Ocean.

    Conditions there set off ripple effects, causing stationary atmospheric waves to snake around the globe and create areas of higher and lower air pressure.

    Whether the atmosphere will stay in its current phase is unknown.

    It could enter an opposite phase in which a low-pressure atmosphere over Arctic seas would cancel out much of the increased melting due to climate change.

    Read more:

  115. Paul Vaughan says:

    It takes patience to sort out aggregation criteria.

    Let’s start doing a recap.

    We know that MEIx (extended multivariate ENSO index) balances to zero by design in the long run, but we also know that statistical El Nino dominance over La Nina is clustered in at least 2 systematic manners:



    Parallel reminders:



    That leaves an embedded mystery to add a delectable layer of fascination and intrigue:

    What accounts for the temporal translation symmetry and bookend temporal reflection symmetry of SAOT (stratospheric aerosol optical thickness)?

    The answer is simpler than you realize.

  116. Paul Vaughan says:

    The persistence of tropical circulatory structures (and coupled mass distribution) is recorded via integration at the poles.

    The illustrated reflection symmetry is coherent with the difference of LOD’s 6 year term and polar motion’s 6.4 year envelope.

  117. oldbrew says:

    RE. ‘LOD’s 6 year term and polar motion’s 6.4 year envelope.’

    6:6.4 = 16:15 ratio in 96 years.
    1/5th of 96 years = 3 * 6.4y = 1.6185301 Jupiter orbits
    Φ = 1.618034

  118. oldbrew says:

    Where’s the alarm?

  119. oldbrew says:

    The Continuing Climate Disconnect and the Climate Bait and Switch
    March 14, 2017, 8:24 am

    I constantly have to patiently explain that the theory of catastrophic man-made global warming (or climate change if you prefer) is a two part theory, and that warming forecasts are based on two independent chained theories: First, CO2 acting as a green house gas incrementally warms the earth and second, large net positive feedbacks in the Earth’s climate multiply this initial warming many times. The majority of the warming actually comes from the second theory, not greenhouse gas theory, but every time I am in a debate or interview situation one of the early questions is “how can you deny greenhouse gas theory, it is settled science?” This is what I call the climate bait and switch — skeptics have issues with the second theory but the media and climate alarmists only want to argue about the first.

  120. oldbrew says:

    Explaining a ‘once-in-a-billion-year event’: A perfect storm of fire and ice may have led to snowball Earth
    March 13, 2017

    Researchers have pinpointed the start of what’s known as the Sturtian snowball Earth event to about 717 million years ago—give or take a few 100,000 years. At around that time, a huge volcanic event devastated an area from present-day Alaska to Greenland. Coincidence?

    Harvard professors Francis Macdonald and Robin Wordsworth thought not.

    Read more at:

  121. Sphene says:

    Was a methane haze necessary for transition of Earth’s atmosphere to oxygen?

    ” New research..suggests that long ago, Earth’s atmosphere spent about a million years filled with a methane-rich haze. This haze drove a large amount of hydrogen out of the atmosphere, clearing the way for massive amounts of oxygen to fill the air. This transformation resulted in an atmosphere much like the one that sustains life on Earth today.”

  122. Sphene says:

    An interesting underground gyroscope facility to measure Earth’s rotation:

    “Researchers in Italy hope to measure Earth’s rotation using a laser-based gyroscope housed deep underground, with enough experimental precision to reveal measurable effects of Einstein’s general theory of relativity. The ring laser gyroscope (RLG) technology enabling these Earth-based measurements provide, unlike those made by referencing celestial objects, inertial rotation information, revealing fluctuations in the rotation rate from the grounded reference frame.”

  123. Paul Vaughan says:

    Bill Illis comment on that yesterday:

    “[…] the issue for this time period is “where was super-continent Rodinia at this time?” […] most of Rodinia as it was breaking up was actually near the south pole. Maybe some was close to the equator but large land masses were at the south pole […] Think of Antarctica being ten times bigger and still centred over the pole like today.. Glaciers almost to the equator. So much sunlight gets reflected by this white Earth (let’s say 50%, versus today’s 29.8%) […]”

  124. Sphene says:

    This research suggests that life could have started quite close to the beginning of Earth’s formation:

    ” A set of biochemical processes crucial to cellular life on Earth could have originated in chemical reactions taking place on the early Earth four billion years ago, believes a group of scientists from the Francis Crick Institute and the University of Cambridge… The research group..have shown an enzyme-free metabolic pathway that mirrors the Krebs cycle. It is sparked by particles called sulphate radicals under conditions similar to those on Earth four billion years ago…Senior author Dr Markus Ralser of the Francis Crick Institute and University of Cambridge explains: ‘This non-enzymatic precursor of the Krebs cycle that we have demonstrated forms spontaneously, is biologically sensible and efficient. It could have helped ignite life four billion years ago.’ ”

  125. Paul Vaughan says:

    We’ll have to do a recap on solar cycle deceleration to move the herd towards more realistic thinking. It’s a case of simplicity that political masters don’t want to see. Nature outranks political masters.

  126. Paul Vaughan says:

    (4.42377107)*(1.184859016) / (4.42377107 – 1.184859016) = 1.618304218
    antiresonant CW apse extremes

  127. oldbrew says:

    Running away from Einstein
    March 16, 2017

    Einstein’s theory of gravity may have to be rewritten, after researchers at the University of St Andrews found a gigantic ring of galaxies darting away from us much faster than predicted.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Giant ring of galaxies scattered during Andromeda flyby challenges Einstein’s theory of gravity
    Galaxies are moving away far faster than Einstein’s theory can account for.
    . . .
    Lead author Indranil Banik said the ring-like distribution of the group of galaxies is also very odd. “I found there is barely a one in 640 chance for randomly distributed galaxies to line up in the observed way,” he said.

  128. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK – NASA seems to have forgotten Cruithne?

    3753 Cruithne (/kruːˈiːnjə/[2] or /ˈkrʊnjə/)[3] is a Q-type, Aten asteroid in orbit around the Sun in 1:1 orbital resonance with Earth, making it a co-orbital object. It is an asteroid that, relative to Earth, orbits the Sun in a bean-shaped orbit that effectively describes a horseshoe, and that can transition into a quasi-satellite orbit.[4] It has been incorrectly called “Earth’s second moon”.

  129. oldbrew says:

    Great diesel debacle (or how drivers are paying the price for ministers’ idiocy and dishonesty)

    Why not tell the truth? There has been a monumental cock-up. The supposed dangers of climate change led ministers to disregard the perils of diesel pollution on our streets. And millions of drivers are being made to pay a very high price for their incompetence and dishonesty.

    Read more:

    They used to like telling us we had ’50 days to save the world’ :/

  130. oldmanK says:

    A reminder about models, the software type. The source of much trouble. A computer model is not an alternative to basic knowledge.

  131. Paul Vaughan says:

    …said a different way:
    QBO & LAC (lunar apse cycle)
    (8.847542139)*(2.369718033) / (8.847542139 – 2.369718033)
    = 3.236608436
    ~= 3.236067977 = 2φ = 1+√5

  132. Paul Vaughan says:

    LAC refresher (for those who haven’t thought about it in years):
    (27.55455)*(27.32158236) / (27.55455 – 27.32158236) = 3231.495658 days
    (3231.495658) / 365.242189 = 8.847542139 tropical years

    QBO (aliasing) reminder:
    harmonic of 365.242189 nearest 27.212221 is 28.095553
    (28.095553)*(27.212221) / (28.095553 – 27.212221) = 865.5210016 days
    (865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718033 tropical years = QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation)
    2.369718033 / 2 = 1.184859016 tropical years = 432.7605008 days = CW (chandler wobble)

    where lunar months are
    27.32158236 days = tropical
    27.55455 days = anomalistic
    27.212221 days = draconic

    3rd eye on LAC extreme antiresonance:
    (4.42377107)*(1.618033989) / (4.42377107 + 1.618033989) = 1.184714151 tropical years
    = 432.7075898 days
    ~= CW (chandler wobble)

    harmonic mean:
    (4.42377107)*(1.618033989) / ( (4.42377107 + 1.618033989) / 2 ) = 2.369428302 tropical years
    ~= QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation)

    where 1.618033989 = φ
    & LAC extremes occur with period LAC / 2 = 8.847542139 / 2 = 4.42377107 tropical years

    This isn’t about modeling just cycle means, nor does generalized extension end with volatility. A comprehensive framework extends to aggregation criteria with infinite generality. The people who insist the objective is only to model cycle means are the ones interfering most (whether deliberately or accidentally) to make sure conventional statistics (based on false spatiotemporal assumptions) will never be interpreted sensibly. Closed operative minds along the major western fault are curiously consumed by counterproductively dark instinct to evade enlightenment.

  133. oldbrew says:

    In tropical years: LAC / (LAC – 1) = Full Moon Cycle

  134. oldbrew says:

    Transport expert ridicules HS2 as supersonic ‘rail pods’ could cross Britain in 12 minutes
    Hyperloop is testing technology that could carry passengers at 720mph.
    By Jasmine Andersson
    Updated March 18, 2017

    The technology is due to be tested in the Nevada desert by June.

    The British government said that it would publish a policy paper on Hyperloop One this year.

  135. oldbrew says:

    Gentle breeze may help Venus’s atmosphere spin like crazy

    Venus has a second wind. Not only do winds whip around our planetary neighbour’s equator, they also blow from the equator toward the poles, something never conclusively observed before. Their existence could help solve the biggest mystery about the planet’s atmosphere: how it rotates so quickly.

    Venus rotates once every 243 Earth days, but its atmosphere does so every four days, with wind speeds in excess of 400 kilometres per hour parallel to the equator. Energy from sunlight is needed to maintain this frenzy. But with more sunlight hitting near the equator than at the poles, it wasn’t clear how enough energy could arrive where it was needed.

    The newly detected meridional winds, blowing at a relatively leisurely 80 kilometres per hour, could pull some of that energy away from the equatorial regions, spreading it more evenly throughout the atmosphere.
    – – –
    Related: 18 June 2013
    The most detailed record of cloud motion in the atmosphere of Venus chronicled by ESA’s Venus Express has revealed that the planet’s winds have steadily been getting faster over the last six years.

  136. Fast says:

    The best dismissal of Global Warming arguments I have read. And it is by a cartoonist.

  137. oldbrew says:

    Fast – if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…we know the rest 😉

  138. Paul Vaughan says:

    Sharp eastern minds are accelerating right past former western leaders on the exploration path. In the correspondence I had with NASA JPL years ago no one ever mentioned this additional constraint. The conventional wisdom was that the CW is “free”. Explicitly stated instinct was that the moon had something do with the observed period. No one ever mentioned that the most frequently observed period was at the bottom of an antiresonance basin.

  139. oldbrew says:

    Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Slows Growth Rate of Atmospheric CO2

  140. Sphene says:

    Images and video of the curiously-shaped moon of Saturn that orbits in the Encke gap of Saturn’s ring system, taken by the Cassini space probe:

    “Welcome to Pan: Saturn’s Ravioli-Shaped Moon”

  141. oldbrew says:

    Re PV’s numbers above, i.e.:
    4.42377107 tropical years = 0.5 LAC
    1.184714151 tropical years = ~1 CW
    – – –
    4.42377107 – 1.184714151 = 2 * 1.619528~
    4.42377107 * 1.184714151 = 2 * 2.620452~

    See also:

  142. oldbrew says:

    NASA unveils incredible high-def image of layered Martian crater

    See a better version [50 centimeters (19.7 inches) per pixel] here…

  143. oldbrew says:

    Prof. Carl-Otto Weiss speaks…


  144. oldbrew says:

    Reconsider the impact of trees on water cycles and climate, scientists ask
    March 20, 2017

    Forests and trees play a major role on water cycles and cooler temperatures, contributing to food security and climate change adaptation. In recent decades, the climate change discourse has looked at forests and trees mostly as carbon stocks and carbon sinks, but now scientists are calling for more attention on the relation between trees and water in climate change.

    Scientists suggest that the global conversation on trees, forests and climate needs to be turned on its head: the direct effects of trees on climate through rainfall and cooling may be more important than their well-studied capacity of storing carbon.

    Read more at:

  145. Paul Vaughan says:

    1. Earth is north-south asymmetrical — including the distribution and proportion of land and ocean.
    2. During reaction to stratospheric aerosol optical thickness (SAOT) disturbance, land and ocean (and therefore north and south) respond differentially, so atmosphere is reshaped and circulation reconfigured.
    3. AMO is something else, but people have this (incorrectly) mixed into their thinking about AMO. Correction is proving to be a piece of work lasting many years. Better cooperation is needed.

  146. Paul Vaughan says:

    This is the level of thinking needed: (Peter Huyber’s thesis)

  147. oldmanK says:

    PV’s link is a 2004 ‘state-of-the-matter’. Questions have arisen since then by many in that specific field, including by the author himself. Rubincam, whose 1994 paper is cited in this paper, published a very interesting one himself a year later.

    But I like this bit — Quote: “—-the 1/100KY variability, but a known physical mechanism which would
    behave in this way is conspicuously absent.
    Obliquity has played a more obscure role in theories of the glacial cycles, largely
    because it is not obvious how a forcing dominated by 41KY variability can be related
    to a roughly 100KY climatic signal. Unlike the climatic precession, the amplitude and
    frequency modulation of obliquity are small,—“. That problem remains to this day.

    There are assumptions,– on which even the Milankovitch theory is based– that should be checked from their very fundamental basics. Things have been stuck in a rut since J N Stockwell. That the empirical factor in that formula is unchanging, is taken for granted, is wrong.

  148. oldbrew says:

    ‘The Great Barrier Reef is dying’ claims the Washington Post.
    This is classic fake news. – Delingpole

  149. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, the level of Huybers’ thinking is much higher than that of most climate discussion participants. Note the thought process and evolution. There are plenty of wrong quotes in his thesis, but the quality of his mind is evident. With minds of that caliber, corrections can happen with the passage of time. His writing is thoughtful. Even though the work is dated, there are paragraphs packed with multiple interesting thoughts. Even just reading a few paragraphs one can find enough tangents to ponder for hours. I advise focusing on what’s right and skipping what’s wrong.

  150. oldmanK says:

    PV, I fully agree with what you said. One fellow whose works I like to follow when I find them, even though most times the finer details are way beyond my grasp. I simply point to one aspect on which a finely tuned mind can do a lot of good. Today I am certain of that.

  151. oldbrew says:

    70 dead after worst flooding ever in Namibia following on from the severest drought in 25 years

    Astonishing turn around

    Namibia is the fifth area to witness an astonishing turn around for drought crippled regions around the globe: California, Zimbabwe, New Zealand and Madagascar and now Namibia have had droughts wiped out!

  152. oldbrew says:

    Date: 21/03/17 Robert Gottliebsen, The Australian

    The looming crisis is much worse than I expected.
    Three state governments, Victoria NSW and South Australia, have vandalised our total energy system.

  153. craigm350 says:

    A rather interesting find over at Ken’s Kingdom;

    [Liquid in Glass] thermometers have more reliable accuracy than automatic probes, and that 10% of AWS probes are not sufficiently accurate, with higher error rates. That is, at more than 50 sites. If they are in remote areas, their inaccuracy will have an additional large effect on the climate signal. It is to be hoped that Alice Springs, which contributes 7-10% of the national climate signal, is not one of them.
    Maxima and minima reported by modern temperature probes are likely to be some tenths of a degree higher or lower than those reported historically using Liquid-In-Glass thermometers.

    Daily maximum and minimum temperatures reported at Climate Data Online are just noise, and cannot be used to determine record high or low temperatures

  154. oldbrew says:

    Giant magnetic fields in the universe
    March 22, 2017

    Astronomers … found magnetic fields that are exceptionally ordered over distances of many million light years. This makes them the most extended magnetic fields in the universe known so far.

    The magnetic fields are of similar strength as in our Milky Way, while the measured degrees of polarization of up to 50% are exceptionally high, indicating that the emission originates in an extremely ordered magnetic field. “We discovered the so far largest ordered magnetic fields in the universe, extending over 5-6 million light years”

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Quoting from the caption to their magnetism graphic:
    The short dashes indicate the orientation of the magnetic field. The bright source at the bottom is a radio galaxy that belongs to the same galaxy cluster.

    The radio galaxy dashes appear to be at right angles to those of the main magnetic field.

    ‘An electric current produces magnetism’

  155. oldbrew says:

    BBC LIVE — Westminster attack – latest updates
    Police surround suspected attacker

    A woman dies and several others are critically injured after a “terrorist incident” at Parliament and Westminster Bridge.

  156. oldbrew says:

    Pie in the sky?
    – – –
    A new start-up claims it will fly commercial, electric flights from London to Paris in the next decade.
    The plane would carry 150 people on journeys of less than 300 miles (480km), though it is yet to go into development.

    By removing the need for jet fuel, Wright Electric – the company behind the ambitious project – claims that electric flights could drastically cut the cost of travel.
    . . .
    But Wright Electric still has a way to go before its fuel-less flights are in the air, as the batteries that each plane would need do not yet exist.

    Read more:

  157. oldbrew says:

    Centre for modular nuclear manufacturing to open in UK

    The new centre will be located at Cammell Laird’s existing site in Birkenhead on the northwest coast.
    The Nuclear AMRC is an academic-industry collaboration aimed at fostering manufacturing innovation and supplier development across the UK’s nuclear supply chain.

  158. oldbrew says:

    Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D.
    By Climatologist Cliff Harris and Meteorologist Randy Mann

    We should remember, that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden “Little Ice Age,” which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years. In terms of upcoming cooling and warming periods, only time will tell.

  159. oldbrew says:

    The many-tentacled galaxy that could drive a physics revolution

    Knowing the distances to faraway galaxies accurately is the key part of clocking the expansion rate of the universe.

    That makes this galaxy a crucial data point in an ongoing argument between astronomers and cosmologists about just how fast the expansion is happening – a conflict that, if unresolved, could force a revision of modern physics.

    Not a bad resume for a sea-monster galaxy that sports extra tentacles.

  160. oldbrew says:

    Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity, and Changes in the Earth’s Climate [2017]
    Y. I. Stozhkova,
    *, G. A. Bazilevskayaa
    , V. S. Makhmutova
    , N. S. Svirzhevskya
    , A. K. Svirzhevskayaa,
    V. I. Logacheva
    , and V. P. Okhlopkovb

    ‘This mechanism of the connection between the
    global temperature of the near-surface air layer and the
    charged particle flux will be tested in the next 2–3 years.
    The Solar System is now in the positive phase of the
    22-year solar magnetic cycle. This phase is being characterized
    by a rather fast recovery (rise) of the cosmic
    ray flux after the maximum solar activity of 2014. If
    there is a rise in the charged particle flux in the lower
    atmosphere in the next few years, there will have to be
    a drop in ΔT, i.e. a decrease in the global temperature
    of the near-surface air layer.’

    PDF here:

    H/T NTZ

    See ‘Complete Oulu data’ graph here…


  161. oldbrew says:

    “The days of ‘trust-me’ science are over,” says Lamar Smith. “If EPA regulations are based on legitimate science, then there is no reason to deny Americans access to the data. This bill restores confidence in the EPA rulemaking process. EPA will now be able to concentrate its limited resources on quality science that all researchers can examine.”
    – – –
    Two Bills to Modify EPA Science Pass Committee

    Special Topics in Environmental Management Contributing Editor Monday – March 20, 2017

    The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology has approved two bills that would modify aspects of how science is conducted at the EPA. Introduced by the two top Republicans on the Committee, the bills focus on the right of the public to know more about the science the EPA uses in making policy decisions and to contribute to that science through the public comment process.

    HONEST Act
    H.R. 1430, the Honest Open New EPA Science Treatment Act of 2017 (HONEST Act), was introduced by Committee Chair Lamar Smith (R-TX). The bill seeks to “prohibit the Environmental Protection Agency from proposing, finalizing, or disseminating regulations or assessments based upon science that is not transparent or reproducible.”

    Specifically, the bill directs that the EPA administrator may not propose, finalize, or disseminate a covered action unless all scientific and technical information relied on to support that action is:

    — The best available science;
    — Specifically identified; and
    — Publicly available online in a manner that is sufficient for independent analysis and substantial reproduction of research results. Exceptions are made for any personally identifiable information, trade secrets, or commercial or financial information obtained from a person and considered privileged or confidential. This information must be redacted before public availability

    – See more at:

  162. oldbrew says:

    Satire corner…

    The Russians Hacked our Winter Weather
    March 23rd, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

  163. oldbrew says:

    Great Lakes water levels highest since the last El Niño of 1997-8.

    What Caused Record Water Level Rise in the Great Lakes?

  164. USteiner says:

    high-flux solar simulator SynLight

    found here:

    Simulating high solar flux as you have it with solar power tower systems ( in order to develop hydrogen generation at higher efficiencies than by solar collectors & electrolysis. Generally a good idea, but it is tricky.

    Sounds a bit like Nuclear Fusion Power – is 30 years away and will remain like that.

  165. oldbrew says:

    Cyclone Debbie forces evacuations in Queensland, Australia

    Sky News Australia
    Sun, 26 Mar 2017

    Queensland is preparing for the worst tropical cyclone since Yasi six years ago, and authorities are warning residents that they need to act now as Monday will be too late.

    Authorities have begun evacuating parts of the Whitsunday region as cyclone Debbie continues to bear down on the north Queensland coastline.

    The Bureau of Meteorology expects ‘the very destructive core’ of Debbie to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine as a category 4 early on Tuesday morning, with winds up to 260km/h and flash flooding.

  166. Eeehh, bloody ‘ell as like:

    Nigel Pargiter, acting head of energy supply chains at BEIS (Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), told a North East audience that the emphasis is now on cutting energy costs to homes and businesses.

    In a question and answer session at the annual NOF Energy Conference at the Sage Gateshead, he conceded the Government had ‘neglected industry for a few decades’.

    Responding to a question from John Bruijnooge, site director at Teesside industrial giant Sabic, he said Whitehall ‘has had to take a long hard look in the mirror’.

    “We have neglected industry for too long and we now have to have a keen focus on costs.”

    He went to say the previous energy policies, which focused on balancing a trilemma of reducing energy emissions, cutting costs and delivering energy security, ‘had been the result of tensions’ between two Government departments.

    He said: “Under the Coalition, energy policy was split between two different departments, the Department for Business and DECC (Department of Energy and Climate Change), and there were tensions.

  167. oldbrew says:

    Tim Cullen writes – Dallas Abbott: The Burckle Impact

    We have found an impact crater that is likely < 6000 years old.

    Burckle crater is in the central Indian Ocean on the edge of a fracture zone at 30.87° S 61.36°E. The crater is 29±1 km wide and is the inferred source of layers with high magnetic susceptibility in 3 deep sea cores. Each layer goes to the top of the core.

    Two out of 3 of the cores have basal Pleistocene ages and the basal age of the third is unknown. The high susceptibility layers contain broken plagioclase, spinel periodotite, and chrysotile asbestos.

    One sample contains pure Ni with drops of oxidized Ni.

    Because pure Ni melts at 1453°C, it is very likely that the drops formed during an impact. The high susceptibility layers from 2 cores are over 5 times thicker than they should be for a 29 km wide source crater.
    . . .
    We date the event to around 2807 B.C.

  168. oldbrew says:

    Category 4 cyclone closes in on north Queensland
    Cyclone Debbie is predicted to make landfall as a cyclone on the north Queensland coast Tuesday morning.

    BOM forecaster Brett Harrison said Cyclone Debbie could reach category five.

    “At this stage we can’t rule out a category five system during the coming hours,” he said.

    “But category four — it’s a very intense system at the moment — we are expecting wind gusts near the centre of up to 275 kilometres per hour.”
    . . .
    Mackay Regional Mayor Greg Williamson said 25,000 text messages were sent out on Monday to residents in low-lying areas.

    “The text says ‘based on the latest information we’re advising you to seek refuge with friends and relatives on higher ground’,” Cr Williamson said.

  169. Paul Vaughan says:

    focus coming back (appeared distracted since Nov. 2016):
    Pukite’s refining instincts on CW & QBO but misinterpretation (or is it misrepresentation?) of ENSO is ongoing.

  170. oldbrew says:

    House Science Committee Hearing
    Posted on March 29, 2017
    by Judith Curry

    My testimony at the House Science Committee Hearing on Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific Method.

    The text of my written testimony is here [Curry house science testimony mar 17 – see link below]. I really enjoyed preparing this testimony, it provided me an opportunity to reflect on my writings over the past 7 years and synthesize them into an essay on the philosophy of climate science, including what went wrong and why, and some suggestions for fixing these problems.

    I realize that this essay is a bit esoteric, but in my opinion these are the kinds of issues that need to be understood and confronted.
    – – –
    ‘Let’s make scientific debate about climate change great again.’

  171. oldmanK says:

    The two previous posts contain two -ok- nice surprises. Starting with oldbrew’s, JC in her submission pdf left out one cardinal point. Taking the works of previous others as “dogma in toto” without asking if this is still half-baked, irrespective of it being a new landmark progress.

    That point has been highlighted in PV’s second link on the chandler wobble. Quote: “— once the Chandler wobble was observed, the difference between its period and the one predicted by Euler was explained by Simon Newcomb —“. Was Simon Newcomb’s all there was to it?

    The author of that piece tackles it as “There is a factor known as the Q-value which describes the resonant “quality” of the impulse response, classically defined as the solution to a 2nd-order DiffEq”. Except that he assumes an impulse instead of a step change. That’s ok there.

    The same argument – and maths – should be applied to obliquity with – now – a step change as proposed by Dodwell. Without going in further arguments, it is easy to perceive what that would mean to solar insolation distribution, and the rest, during the millennia prior to 2345bce.

  172. oldmanK says:

    Seismic Med activity today. At

    Simultaneous activity in Crete and Egypt. Compression and relaxation?

  173. oldbrew says:

    Paul Vaughan says:
    March 29, 2017 at 5:34 pm

    I suspect the Chandler wobble should occur 32 times every 507 lunar tropical months (13² * 3) = 39 Sidorenkov tidal years (13 * 3). If so it would also tie in with Jupiter-Saturn-Earth conjunction frequencies.
    – – –
    UPDATE: 27 CW in 32 tropical years gives an almost identical result.

  174. Paul Vaughan says:

    Curry’s not competent.

  175. oldbrew says:

    Search for ‘Planet Nine’: astronomers seek help from amateur stargazers
    The images to be searched are of the southern sky which is less explored.
    By Agamoni Ghosh
    Updated March 28, 2017

    “If this planet exists, it’s already in one of our thousands and thousands of images,” ANU astronomer Dr Brad Tucker told the BBC. “We said, ‘hey, let’s have the public help us and search these images to see if we can find it together’,” he added.

  176. oldbrew says:

    Eastern Australia: Towns underwater, people missing in floods following Cyclone Debbie

    On the Gold Coast, wild winds are on their way as the low pressure system that is ex-tropical cyclone Debbie strengthens and combined with a cold front out to sea, the Bureau of Meteorology has warned.

  177. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 26 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

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