Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 24

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    A Four Planet System in Orbit, Directly Imaged and Remarkable

    “it’s delightful that these recently discovered planets exhibit the same type of harmony exhibited by the Galilean moons, Io, Europa, and Ganymede (1:2:4) and illustrating some of the connections between our own solar system and those orbiting other stars.”

    NB the 4th (innermost) planet is not part of the same resonance according to the numbers at: [filter = ‘HR 8799’ in name ]

    See also:

  3. oldbrew says:

    Hundreds of ancient earthworks resembling Stonehenge found in Amazon rainforest

    The findings prove for the first time that prehistoric settlers in Brazil cleared large wooded areas to create huge enclosures meaning that the ‘pristine’ rainforest celebrated by ecologists is actually relatively new.

  4. Saighdear says:

    Has anybody noted the lack of Live Earthquake data lately on >>>> << and then compare that little Info with the Lightning over Western Turkey this now @ ? Coincidental or ?? – the activity that is !

  5. Geoff Sharp says:

    A new paper “A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity” uses a model based on Jupiter & Saturn.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Global oil demand will rise to 98.09 million barrels a day this year, compared with production of 98.03 million.

    Note: barrels A DAY. Where would we be without it?

  7. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK : one report said it was probably an overheating turbine which is ‘not that unusual’ – but not a good idea either 😐

  8. oldmanK says:

    A different take on the matter, a milder situation:

    But this from the BBC triggered a flag : “Five people reported feeling unwell but none was seriously injured.”

  9. oldbrew says:

    Pot calls kettle black 😎

    Wikipedia labels Daily Mail as ‘unreliable’ and bans it as a source for entries

  10. oldbrew says:

    100 sailors trapped in Arctic ice

    On board the vessels are up to 100 people faced with the prospect of a long winter ahead. The ships might be stuck until the ice starts to break up in early spring.

    The local power company is now connecting the vessels with power cables from land. The icebreaker gets 300 KW, while the cargo vessel has requested 200 KW.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Geoff Sharp says – February 8, 2017 at 5:04 am :

    ‘A new paper “A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity” uses a model based on Jupiter & Saturn.’

    Thanks for the link. There’s also a section ‘4.1 Other planetary effects ‘ with a paragraph starting ‘As to planets Uranus and Neptune…’.

    Ref. 15 in the paper: G.J.Sharp, “Are Uranus & Neptune Responsible for Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation? . IJAA 3, 260 (2013)”

  12. oldbrew says:

    Climate Skeptic Willie Soon Addresses Packed Audience in L.A.

    For all the focus on carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas in the climate system was water vapor, he said. And carbon dioxide, he noted, was not a “pollutant,” as the term was conventionally used.

    While it was true that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide had been increasing, he said, and had passed 400 parts per million, the dominant effect of water vapor had helped flatten the greenhouse effect, such that the rise of global surface temperatures had slowed significantly.

  13. oldmanK says:

    Another fresh interesting paper : (but cannot get full pdf)

    Title “Large 14C excursion in 5480 BC indicates an abnormal sun in the mid-Holocene “. Another date I have anticipated. Earth tilt change hi>low. Had the sun something to do with that? – probably but not directly.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Once again failing miserably to consider natural changes could be occurring right now…

    Sea-level change in Southeast Asia 6,000 years ago has implications for today

    ‘In a paper published in Nature Communications, Horton, Kopp, Ashe, lead author Aron Meltzner and others report that the relative sea level around Belitung Island in Indonesia rose twice just under 2 feet in the period from 6,850 years ago to 6,500 years ago. That this oscillation took place without any human-assisted climate change suggests to Kopp, Horton and their co-authors that such a change in sea level could happen again now, on top of the rise in sea level that is already projected to result from climate change. This could be catastrophic for people living so close to the sea.’

    Read more at:

    Not only ‘could happen again now’ but probably IS happening now, to some extent at least. But they are too fearful to admit even the possibility 😦

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    Politics is deathly boring.
    Our Sun is the only star capable of keeping our climate discussion worthwhile & interesting.

    The major fault (a west coast US line of infiltration and hijacking aiming to control the opposition) has been deterred. We can get back to exploring nature’s beauty.

    A serious wrong turn was made:
    2004 German academic perspective on mass distribution & transport:

    Correcting wrong turns:
    2017: _ _ [TPW = true polar wander]
    TPW- and continental drift-driven decrease in insolation forcing over the last 20 Myr rivals changes in insolation forcing caused by variations in Earth’s obliquity and precession.
    Daradich, Huybers, Mitrovica, Chan, and Austermann The influence of true polar wander on glacial inception in North America, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2017.

    Ice melt can’t explain rotation before 700AD:
    (Background link: )

    Mid-ocean ridge CO2 provocation and more:

  16. Paul Vaughan says:
    ties 41k pacific cycle of volcanism to mass balance, plate loading and isostasy
    has a clue about precipitation (not just insolation) — understands heavy snowfall piles up high and takes forever to melt — function of topography and circulation, not latitude — Bill Illis can take a lesson from Huybers

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Integrating over the global ocean, the Southern Ocean is dominant, as the inversion indicates that almost 60% of the ocean volume originates from south of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical front.”

    20/20 hindsight

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    Huyber’s drew the same conclusion as Rial:
    Antarctica leads Greenland by 1/4 cycle:
    Notice how the statistical model assumption of random lag error fails due to the de Vries cycle. Huybers failed to interpret this correctly, as do all academics who get lost in statistical modeling assumptions. This has stirred up a new line of investigation…

  19. oldbrew says:

    Discover your own exoplanet(s)

    Scientists make huge dataset of nearby stars available to public

  20. Sphene says:

    Is an exoplanet influencing its star?

         ” The planet, named HAT-P-2b, tracks its star in a highly eccentric orbit, flying extremely close to and around the star, then hurtling far out before eventually circling back around.”

         ” Each time the planet passed behind the star, the researchers saw something unexpected: Instead of a flat line, representing a momentary drop as the planet is masked by its star, they observed tiny spikes—oscillations in the star’s light, with a period of about 90 minutes, that happened to be exact multiples of the planet’s orbital frequency.”

  21. oldbrew says:

    Sphene: Interesting stuff.

    Timo Niroma observed Jupiter affecting sunspots at perihelion i.e. they stopped for a day or two.
    That was the claim at least.

  22. Roger Clague says:

    _Air conditioning on a roll

    Application of physics of absorption and emission in the atmosphere to create a useful result

    Glass beads are used to produce IR that passes thru the atmospheric widow.
    This causes cooling of 90W/m^2 at a cost of 50 pence per m^2

  23. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rejecting cultural coercion to screen observation according to imagined limits, natural learning opportunities are infinite. Without imagined limits on direction, we’re free to find the way faster.

    Justice 101: Explanation is spin; report just observations.

    From Sphene’s link:
    “There is a physical link between the two, but at this stage, we actually can’t explain it. So these are mysterious pulsations induced by the star’s companion.”

    Perfect. They acknowledge observation simply exceeds theoretical imagination. This is powerfully beautiful.

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    Following the link a step further to the original article notice the focus on both continuous and discrete effects of eccentricity on circulatory structure change:;

    Note links below the article to broaden and enrich awareness with comparative perspective. This should help us sort our thinking…

  25. oldbrew says:

    Timo Niroma wrote:

    Another interesting paper by NASA was titled “The Day the Solar Wind Disappeared”
    I quote: “From May 10-12, 1999, the solar wind that blows constantly from the Sun virtually disappeared — the most drastic and longest-lasting decrease ever observed.” … “Starting late on May 10 and continuing through the early hours of May 12, NASA’s ACE and Wind spacecraft each observed that the density of the solar wind dropped by more than 98%.” … “According to observations from the ACE spacecraft, the density of helium in the solar wind dropped to less than 0.1% of its normal value, and heavier ions, held back by the Sun’s gravity, apparently could not escape from the Sun at all.”

    According to NGDC, the Wolf sunspot number got a jump a few days earlier: 08 May the number was 151 and 09 May it was 149, when the first-May value was 75 and the peak was followed by a decrease, so that the value was 85 in May 24. Compare these to the smoothed value of May, 90.

    According to my theory the Jupiter’s perihelion very much regulates the sunspot cycles. The last Jovian perihelion occurred just during those days in May 1999, when the Sun appeared to behave abnormally. But the effect does not include only those few days, it affects the whole cycle.
    – – –
    Was that a ‘mysterious pulsation’ perhaps?

  26. oldbrew says:

    Think You Can Find Planet 9? Check Out This Citizen-Science Project

  27. oldbrew says:

    Trump’s likely science adviser calls climate scientists ‘glassy-eyed cult’

    Happer said he began to question the emerging consensus view on climate change while working as director of research at the Department of Energy as part of the George W Bush administration. Climate scientists would “grudgingly” present their work to administrators, he claims, while those in other fields would share their results with enthusiasm. “I would ask questions but they were evasive and wouldn’t answer,” he said. “This experience really soured me on the community. I started reading up and I realised why they weren’t answering the questions: because they didn’t have good answers. It was really at that point that I began to get seriously worried about climate as a science.”

  28. oldbrew says:

    EU doles out taxpayers’ money to this compressed air storage project.

    A 330 MW compressed air energy storage (CAES) project in Larne, Northern Ireland, being developed by utility Gaelectric and technology partner Dresser-Rand, is set to receive €90m. The project will store power from excess renewable generation in two underground salt caverns for later release. The project “will contribute to system flexibility and stability and facilitate the large-scale penetration of renewables into energy markets,” the Commission said.

    ‘facilitate the large-scale penetration of renewables into energy markets’ – in their dreams anyway 😐

  29. oldbrew says:

    Can anyone figure out what this job is?

    Head of Engagement
    Salary within the range of £43,173 to £56,205 pa inclusive.
    This is a full-time post and for 3 years, in the first instance

    The Grantham Research Institute is a world-leading research centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science for the study of the economics and social sciences of climate change and other global environmental problems. We are seeking a highly-motivated professional to play a leading role in increasing the impact of the work of the Institute through increasing our communications and engagement with decision-makers in the public and private sectors, in the UK and abroad.
    – – –
    LSE is a university – amongst other things it seems.

    The appointee might be working for, with, or taking over from (?), this person.

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    Intelligence exists. Outside of the online climate discussion some people actually have a clue about precession:

  31. oldbrew says:

    PV: yes, I saw that one last week.

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, I had never heard of that site before you linked to it. There are a lot of provocative articles upon first glance. Refreshing upon first glance at least.

    I’ve been taking another look at Peter Huybers’ thesis. It also reassures that intelligent life does exist.

    Climate blogs have gotten into a real rut since November. Part of the answer may be branching out into lots of new territory because intelligent life vacated the climate blogs after the belief-policing went overboard.

  33. oldmanK says:

    PV’s link is of some interest, for its correlations. But they are shooting at a target on a barn door and missed the barn door.

    Specific dates like 11,700 is the end of the YD. Between “11,000 and 5,500 years ago” is a raft of specific dates of changes; between ” 5,500 and 5,000 years ago” is 3200bce (precisely 3195) – a very specific date. And the date correlate with civilisations collapse from the old world that are well known.

    Then eccentricity and precession do not work at such short time spans and abrupt events (you won’t see such sharp level changes if it was not abrupt). Obliquity?! (I rest my case).

  34. oldbrew says:

    Jo Nova sums up wind energy:
    ‘So in a modern renewable grid we have variations in supply and demand that are of the order of the average grid load and at the whim of The Wind. What could possibly go wrong?’

    SA Blackout: a grid crippled by complexity

  35. oldmanK says:

    Further to the/my above post, something from JCCurry’s page, here: particularly this: shows something of interest. Compared to archaeological evidence it provides for a little insight.

    Curve of %HSG shows a sharp rise (it is really a sudden drop in count — which is to be expected after a major disturbance has passed) at 5200BP (3200bce). An event in the archeological record similar to ~7200BP. The 7200-5200 is a sawtooth that is itself ratcheting. 9200 to 7200 is another sawtooth subject to similar conditions. Previous is ???? from archaeo. Post 4800BP is a more quiet period — there is no change archaeo-wise post 4200BP (2200bce) to present.

    The Holocene Max and the ‘Neoglacial’ are really incomparable. From 20k to present, which includes the Dryas period, what appears is a chaotic behaviour.

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, precession shapes tropical hydrology. Climate is neither univariate nor globally uniform. The online climate discussion is completely off the rails about what precession does and does not affect and where. People have understood the concerns you have raised. There’s a communication breakdown and it’s big.

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    Outside-of-the-box provocation: The communication breakdown is so extreme that it may demand paradoxical solution. For example in order to jar minds free of thinking inconsistent with records it may be necessary to take one step backwards. Only then will eyes open to see which alternate direction allows 2 steps forward. Specifically were I the teacher with power to set the agenda I might lose my students briefly by banning focus on obliquity in order to force their focus on what they have permanently failed to see about precession and eccentricity. So at least temporarily: Obliquity be gone!!

  38. Paul Vaughan says:

    Looked through the D-O article. It’s too long. Digest articles like that make the discussion worse, not better. That should have been chopped up into more than a dozen little pieces (a series of soundbite-short posts, each focused on 1, 2, or 3 illustrations) and spread out over weeks with a little presented every few days. (Long articles induce skiing (skimming and skipping).)

    There’s a lot of misinformation in the article. Correcting such intense framing will have to start with a focused provocation. It looks like it has to be something like banning focus on the mean so people will be forced to recognize volatility structure …so here’s the 1 stand-out take-away:

    Another dead-obvious problem is that Rial’s 1/4 cycle insights (not 1/2) keep getting ignored. This is a hard fail and it looks like deliberate distortion. Razing versus raising: Ignoring 1/4 cycle core structure razes trust and raises suspicion of a questionable agenda.

    Well, at least there was 1 cute graph (the only gem take-away worth saving and committing to memory…)

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rial isn’t even cited in the article! What a massively glaring oversight. I call corrupt agenda.

  40. oldbrew says:

    Tim Cullen writes:

    Interestingly, a coherent cessation of lead emissions at multiple study sites after ~5400 yr BP coincides with the onset of dry conditions found in regional paleoclimate proxy records.

    After ~5000 yr BP, lead concentrations on both Isle Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula remain at background levels until the onset of modern lead pollution ~ AD 1860.

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    The thing to note above is that D-O volatility structure matches sea level. (There are lots of other (unneeded) curves on the graph distracting focus from this simplicity.)

    Recall that Bill Illis has occasionally mentioned this sea level effect on circulatory hydrology. (I do not recall him having the lucidity to specify the volatility over the mean, so I suspect the maturity of his awareness is partial and vague while his general instincts have merit.)

    Years from now if integrity is ever established to improve terrestrial civilization I’ll use whatever remaining time and ability I have left in my earthly life to (when not hiking and kayaking) pioneer volatility methods still missing from earthly discourse (extensible to generalized multi-moment).

    The mean is just the first moment attracting conscious attention. (Stopping there blinds.)

  42. Paul Vaughan says:

    Topological circulatory reconfiguration reshapes volatility bounds. Because of the spatial dimensions, boundaries on temporal volatility are not specified by a static superposition of low-order empirical temporal component means. This is a matter of recognizing the difference between what’s necessary and what’s sufficient. Would the temporal volatility structure be specified by the envelope of time-only empirical components if hydrology was steered by a static, uniform surface? (…and does it matter (for anything other than academic purposes) since we don’t have that?) The preceding can probably be expressed better some day, but for now crude expression remains a starting point.

  43. oldbrew says:

    Bye bye NASA…

    The NASA Transition Act 2017 has just been passed by the Federal Senate.

    In the words of Congressman Lamar Smith, chairman of the House Science Committee, this act refocusses NASA away from climate, towards space science.

    Smith: ‘there are another dozen agencies that study earth science and climate change, and they can continue to do that.’

  44. oldbrew says:

    Fake news classic from DW.COM…here’s a picture of colourless, odourless, harmless carbon dioxide and/or water vapour [see caption below]

    Caption: ‘Belchatow Power Station, Europe’s largest coal-fired power plant, belches CO2 into the air. Poland is heavily invested in coal-fired power generation, and for many years has attempted to slow progress on European and global climate protection agreements’

    – – –
    Daytime pic of the same power station, from Wikipedia

  45. oldbrew says:

    The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event
    Authors: Shineng Hu, Alexey V. Fedorov
    First Online: 20 February 2017

    At the beginning of 2015, as one year earlier in 2014, the scientific community anticipated that El Niño conditions could develop in the tropical Pacific by year-end. Such projections were related to the occurrence of westerly wind bursts during winter–spring of each year that generated strong downwelling Kelvin waves indicative of an emerging El Niño. However, the event’s progression quickly stalled in 2014, but actively continued in 2015, leading to an extreme warm event (comparable to 1997 or 1982). Here, we compare climate evolution during these two years using satellite observations and numerical simulations. We show that during 2014, El Niño development was interrupted mid-year by an exceptionally strong easterly wind burst, whereas during the second year it continued through the summer. Further, we show that the failed 2014 event created favorable conditions for El Niño development during the next year, as it kept ocean heat content recharged and the western Pacific warm pool extended eastward. Subsequently, the winter–spring westerly wind bursts in 2015 were followed by a series of state-dependent westerly bursts as part of a strong positive Bjerknes feedback. Analogue simulations with a coupled GCM wherein we superimpose the observed sequences of westerly and easterly wind bursts support these conclusions, stressing the role of the failed 2014 event in preconditioning the ocean–atmosphere system for the development of an extreme El Niño. In our simulations the probability of an extreme event following early-year westerly wind bursts increases from 14% to nearly 60% due to this preconditioning. Thus, the interplay between westerly and easterly wind bursts shapes El Niño development and diversity.

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