Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 25

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Explaining the accelerating expansion of the universe without dark energy
    March 30, 2017 by Dr Robert Massey

    Enigmatic ‘dark energy’, thought to make up 68% of the universe, may not exist at all, according to a Hungarian-American team. The researchers believe that standard models of the universe fail to take account of its changing structure, but that once this is done the need for dark energy disappears. The team publish their results in a paper in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    **Enigmatic ‘dark energy’** – elusive to say the least 😐
    – – –
    Simulation suggests 68 percent of the universe may not actually exist: New model shows accelerated expansion can happen without dark energy

    Read more:

  3. oldbrew says:

    The ratio of anomalistic months (AM) to the Chandler wobble (CW) period is about the same as the ratio of CW to the lunar nodal cycle (LNC).

    To put it another way: square root of LNC expressed as AM = CW
    6798.38 (LNC) / 27.55455 (AM) = 246.7244 AM
    √246.7244 = 15.707463 AM = 432.81207 days = ~CW
    – – –
    The Moon passes through the 2 extreme points–or apsides–perigee and apogee about once a month. The time it takes for the Moon to travel from perigee to perigee, is called the anomalistic month, and takes around 27.55455 days.

  4. oldbrew says:

    ‘The presence of negligible internal trends occurring over some oceanic regions, the region 30 – 60◦ N, and in tropospheric satellite temperatures, suggests that little of the heat being trapped in the atmosphere by anthropogenic greenhouse gases actually remains there.’

  5. oldbrew says:

    Australia – Deadly Floods Hit 2 States in Wake of Cyclone Debbie
    31 March, 2017

    Canungra in Queensland recorded 285 mm of rain in 1 day. In New South Wales Mullumbimby recorded over 300 mm of rain in 24 hours and the Tweed River reached levels not seen for over 40 years.

    Authorities have ordered over 20,000 people to evacuate their homes. Police in New South Wales have reported 2 possible flood-related deaths.

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    There are many important points but beware 2 major errors:

    Whether the 2 major errors are part of a deliberate strategy (distortion tactic) or founded on ignorance is (at this point in time) unknown.

    Once Again:

    The spatiotemporal step pattern can be constructed from solar cycle length (SCL).
    This was proven algebraically in 2011.

  7. oldbrew says:

  8. oldmanK says:

    Does that include the “pool to be” in the middle of the sitting room? Not a fresh water pool.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Sea ice melt only makes a small difference to sea levels.

    ‘because freshwater is not as dense as saltwater, freshwater actually has greater volume than an equivalent weight of saltwater’

  10. oldbrew says:

    Some interesting-looking links here…

    Week in review – science edition
    Posted on April 2, 2017
    by Judith Curry

    First few [for links go to JC’s site, above]:

    Sun’s impact on climate quantified for the first time [link]

    North Pacific 20th century decadal-scale variability is unique for the past 342 years [link]

    A reconstructed South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation time series since 1870 [link]

    A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate [link]

    An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation [link]

    Cosmic Rays Increase Cloud Cover, Earth’s Surface Cools [link]

    “New Studies Confirm Solar Activity Plays Important Role On Driving Climate” [link] …

    Removing #mountains from #EarthSystem models affects #ElNino amplitude, frequency & regularity. [link]

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Sun’s impact on climate quantified for the first time [link]”


  12. oldbrew says:

    UK shale gas extraction could be reduced by limited space to develop wells
    April 3, 2017

    Only a quarter of the shale gas contained in one of the UK’s largest reserves might be recoverable because of limited space to develop the wells needed to extract it, according to new research.

    Read more at:

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    April 4, 2017 at 12:54 am ·

    […] Chemists call it activation energy […] There is a necessary amount of energy needed to kick a reaction over a threshold. Anything less than that will not make it go. The acceptance of ideas follows the pattern. Interestingly, catalysts are a shortcut in some cases because they lower the activation threshold. When you are advancing a new idea in an established paradigm some thought about an appropriate catalyst might help. […]

    “To train a dog, one must be smarter than the dog.”

  14. oldbrew says:

    Venus length of day is the axial period of its orbit and rotation periods (retrograde rotation).
    V(LOD) / V(r) + V(LOD) / V(o) = 1 [or: 0.48042 + 0.51958]

    Mercury length of day is the beat period of its orbit and rotation periods (prograde rotation).
    Me(LOD) / Me(r) Me(LOD) / Me(o) = 1 [or: 3 – 2 = 1]

    The ratio of V(LOD) to Me(LOD) is very close to 3:2 (> 99.53% true).

  15. oldbrew says:

    Nature’s Brexit makes today’s political version look like a storm in a teacup.

    Professor Sanjeev Gupta, who led the study, from Imperial College London, said: “This was really one of the defining events for north west Europe – and certainly the defining event in Britain’s history.”

  16. oldbrew says:

    A new satellite is recording unprecedented views of deadly storms and tornadoes from space
    Satellite will reveal features of storms that previous instruments might have missed
    PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 05 April, 2017

    A time-lapse animation [see link] shows about 90 minutes of the storm moving through northern Louisiana.
    Both recordings are of infrared light, which humans can’t see but can detail a storm’s inner structure.

  17. oldbrew says:

    Google Street View cars now sniffing out methane leaks
    Rich Haridy March 23, 2017

    A New Jersey utility company has already approved nearly US$1 billion worth of pipeline upgrades with direct input from the early pilot research. The team currently has four Google Street View cars outfitted with methane sensors roaming the streets and hopes to deploy the system across more cities in the United States.

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    More than 400 icebergs have drifted into the North Atlantic shipping lanes over the past week […] unusually large swarm for this early in the season […]

    […] uncommonly strong counter-clockwise winds that are drawing the icebergs south […]
    […] predicting a fourth consecutive “extreme ice season” with more than 600 icebergs in the shipping lanes.
    In 2014, there were 1,546 icebergs in the shipping lanes – the sixth most severe season on record since 1900, according to the patrol. There were 1,165 icebergs in 2015 and 687 in 2016.

  19. oldbrew says:

    Two eminent climate scientists discuss the policy debate. Their clash tells us much.

    [See: ‘A climate scientist responds to the Director

    Professor Roger Pielke Sr. […] sent the House committee a response to Dr. Seitter’s letter, looking at key excerpts.’]

  20. oldbrew says:

    The next Carrington Event

    All we can be certain of is that the Earth will sooner or later be impacted by another major CME, and probably sooner rather than later because major CMEs occur about once every 150 years and the last one – the Carrington Event – occurred 158 years ago.

    The disruptions caused by a large CME could last for a year or more, with the reason being that the high-voltage transformers that are particularly vulnerable to damage during solar storms are not available off-the-shelf; they have to be manufactured.

  21. Paul Vaughan says:


  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    Aggregation criteria reminder:

  23. oldbrew says:

    Date: 07/04/17

    The sooner the better for this witless nonsense.

  24. oldbrew says:

    Australia: Stargazing Live viewers find four-planet solar system via crowd-sourcing project

    Stargazing Live host Professor Brian Cox said he could not be more excited about the discovery.

    “In the seven years I’ve been making Stargazing Live this is the most significant scientific discovery we’ve ever made. The results are astonishing,” he said.

  25. oldbrew says:

    Here comes Boaty McBoatface…no, really – it’s true.

    McBoatface lead scientist: how famed submarine will help unlock the causes of deep sea warming

    That’s their story anyway – some salty naval yarns must lie ahead 😉

    [Credit: PA]

  26. oldbrew says:


    The EPA lied — nobody died

    EPA forced to back down over particulates claims.

  27. oldbrew says:

    Tony Heller analyses some dodgy temperature graphs from the likes of NASA…

  28. oldbrew says:

    Supersonic plasma jets discovered in Earth’s upper atmosphere
    Michael Irving March 28, 2017

    A few months after spotting a jet stream of molten iron in the Earth’s outer core, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Swarm satellites have found a similar system at work in the upper atmosphere. There, the electrical fields created through solar winds interacting with the planet’s magnetic field have been found to drive supersonic plasma jets, which can heat the ionosphere to temperatures as high as 10,000º C (18,032º F).

  29. Paul Vaughan says:

    “the true north strong and free”
    Spatiotemporal Central Limit 101:

    Centennial stability’s the easy way to spatially balance multidecadal northern temporal disturbance.
    Breaking keys to northern centennial stability in multidecadal ignition suggests major western fault.

  30. oldbrew says:

    New Scientist: Mars is so small because Jupiter shook up its formation

    Models of our solar system’s formation suggest that Mars should be between 1.5 and two times Earth’s mass. Instead, it weighs in at a mere one-tenth the mass of our world.

    Now an old theory that might explain why is resurfacing: gas left over from the formation of Jupiter meddled with the rocks that ultimately built Mars, making them fall apart rather than clump together.

  31. oldbrew says:

    The Golden Section: A Building Block of Cyclic Structure (1992)

    by Theodor Landscheidt

    ‘FIGURE 6. 36-year running variance in the sun’s orbital angular momentum, 700 to 1600. All extrema coincide with observed Gleissberg minima (arrows). This is also true for later centuries. The next Gleissberg minimum, expected around 2026, will be a deep minimum of the Maunder minimum type.’ [bold added]
    – – –
    The ’36 year’ period is really 1/5th of the ~179 year Jose cycle hence Landscheidt’s term the ‘big hand’ (five big fingers).
    13 Big Hands = ~21 Hale cycles (solar)
    13 and 21 are consecutive Fibonacci numbers
    21 / 13 = 1.6153846 (golden ratio = 1.618~)

    Note the prediction was made 25 years ago and solar behaviour is pointing strongly in the direction suggested by Landscheidt.
    – – –
    A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades
    By Kenneth Richard on 10. April 2017

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    2535 values of daily LOD have been “adjusted” for dates between Dec. 22, 1992 and Jan. 1, 2000.

  33. oldbrew says:

    Researchers Solve Critical Flaw in Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

    Scientists have created a thin composite film that gives lithium–sulfur cells exceptional durability

    Compared to the common lithium-ion battery, lithium-sulfur batteries have important advantages: They use cheaper materials and weigh less. A lithium-sulfur cell can have almost double the energy of a lithium-ion cell for the same mass, yielding an edge where energy density is critical, like in portable electronics or in cars.

  34. oldbrew says:

    Solar storms can drain electrical charge above Earth
    April 11, 2017

    If erupted solar material reaches Earth, it can deplete the electrons in the upper atmosphere in some locations while adding electrons in others, disrupting communications either way.
    . . .
    The electrons in the ionosphere normally reflect radio waves back to ground level, enabling long-distance radio communications. Both electron depletion and electron increases in this layer can possibly cause radio communications to fail, reduce the accuracy of GPS systems, damage satellites and harm electrical grids.

    “We don’t know exactly what causes the depletion”

    Read more at:

  35. Andrew says:

    What do we have here.

  36. oldbrew says:

    Thanks Andrew, definitely worth a look.

    ‘Global circulation model (GCM) simulations are generally used to investigate the causality of climate change. However, due to the limited knowledge of the climate system, large uncertainties are still associated with GCMs’

    Putting that out in a published paper probably won’t go down well in some quarters.

    Some of their ideas aren’t too far away from our analysis here.

    E.g. their 215 year de Vries cycle is 208.58~ years in our chart.

  37. oldbrew says:

    [UK] Government challenged over emissions reduction plan as pressure to publish mounts
    NEWS / 11 April 2017

    Threats of court action here.
    – – –
    The Climate Change Act targets can be ‘altered’ if the government chooses to do so, but…

    ‘Inevitably, the Act provides for the amendment of both the baseline and the 2050 target by order. However, the circumstances in which such an amendment may be made are limited to where there have been significant developments in (i) scientific knowledge about climate change since the Act was passed or (ii) European or international law or policy that make it appropriate to do so (s 2(2)).’ ²

    ² ‘The Climate Change Committee, which will be considered below, has a statutory duty to advise on the possible amendment of 2050 target: s 33(1). No amendment can be made without taking into account that advice: s 3(1)(a).’

    Click to access 2._Climate_Change_Act_2008.pdf

    – – –
    The Climate Change Committee says:
    ‘Current policy in the UK is not enough to deliver the existing carbon budgets that Parliament
    has set.’

    Click to access UK-climate-action-following-the-Paris-Agreement-Committee-on-Climate-Change-October-2016.pdf

    – – –
    Reported by The Independent:
    H/T Climate Realists []

  38. Paul Vaughan says:

    a link to the SFA paper referenced in the article to which Andrew pointed:

    Click to access IJICA2010-howslow.pdf

  39. oldbrew says:

    Sunlight sparks chemical reactions in the lower atmosphere
    April 15, 2017

    The formation of secondary organic aerosol is one of the least well-understood atmospheric processes that scientists are working on.

  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    Correction of the major western fault is assured by simple geometry.
    From the shores of Enceladus & Europa, valley-bottom anti-resonance:

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    Enceladusians & Europans ask how long it takes their primary companions to combine contributions to sweep out half a circle.

    (14.723749)*(5.9313075) / (14.723749 + 5.9313075) = 4.228072815 years
    (4.228072815)(√5+1)/(√5-1) = 11.06923834 years

    Draw a line.
    Slash the circle in half:

    T^2=r^3 converts:
    ((4.228072815)^2)^(1/3) = 2.614738763 AU

    Simpler than you can imagine.

    Next up:

    Q: What is the simple difference between light cycles and gravity cycles?
    A: bidecadal oscillation, multidecadal oscillation, volcanic aerosol cycles.

    From any perturbation, it’s downhill back to antiresonant basins of attraction.

  42. oldbrew says:

    PV – re: (4.228072815)(√5+1)/(√5-1) = 11.06923834 years

    4.228072815 is close to 55/13 (Fibonacci) = 4.2307692 years (> 99.93% match)
    Φ³ = √5 + 2 = 4.2360679

  43. oldbrew says:

    BBC news: Theresa May announces plan to call general election on 8 June

    PM says new poll is in the national interest
    Election is only way to guarantee certainty and stability in the wake of Brexit, May says
    May says she “recently and reluctantly” came to the conclusion that a vote was necessary

    – – –
    The Sun, 4th Nov. 2016 said:
    Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017

  44. oldbrew says:

    Long lost city found: Etzanoa of the great Wichita Nation

    Make note of the name Etzanoa, a long-lost city. Donald Blakeslee says he’s found it.

    The discovery could put south-central Kansas on the map as the second-biggest settlement of Native Americans found in the United States, Blakeslee said. And it’s now, finally, the known location of a 1601 battle pitting outnumbered Spaniards firing cannon into waves of attacking Indian warriors.

    Etzanoa has remained a mystery for 400 years. Archaeologists could not find it. Historians thought reports of a permanent settlement with 20,000 Native Americans in it were exaggerated.

    But here in Arkansas City, at the confluence of the Walnut and Arkansas Rivers, Blakeslee, an anthropologist and archaeologist at Wichita State University, has found evidence of a massive town stretching across thousands of acres of bluffs and rich bottomland along two rivers. What clinched it was the discovery, by a high school kid, of a half-inch iron cannon ball.

  45. oldbrew says:

    Wintry Easter weather in Germany – in photos.

    Easter for many across Germany meant either snow, rain, or even both over the weekend. And the chilly weather is set to continue.

    From Berlin down to Munich, snow fell across the country over the Easter weekend, making the springtime holiday feel more wintry than perhaps many had hoped.

    Heavy snowfall in Germany, Austria, Norway, Italy, Poland, Czech Republic
    APRIL 18, 2017

    Winter returns to Eastern Europe.

    By Meteorologist Paul Dorian
    Vencore, Inc.

  46. oldbrew says:

    Nights warm faster
    Posted on April 19, 2017 by Clive Best

  47. oldbrew says:

    Here we go again…

    Newly discovered exoplanet may be best candidate in search for signs of life
    April 19, 2017

    “The LHS 1140 system might prove to be an even more important target for the future characterisation of planets in the habitable zone than Proxima b or TRAPPIST-1. This has been a remarkable year for exoplanet discoveries!”

    Read more at:

  48. oldbrew says:

    Why Earth’s winds are altering with tornadoes, waterspouts & plasma lightning intensifying

  49. martinkokus says:

    I would like to bring to your attention the recent publication of the Halton Arp memorial volume, The Galileo of Palomar. Starting on page 153 there are 3 articles which deal with various coincidences that exist among various constants including links between the Fibonacci number and Arp’s constant.
    Martin Kokus

  50. oldbrew says:

    Halton Arp, the Modern Galileo: He Was a Professional Astronomer Who Began his Career as Edwin Hubble’s Assistant / While Compiling a List of Peculiar Galaxies, Arp Discovered that High-Redshift Quasars are Commonly Associated with or Even Connected by Filaments to Lower-Redshift Galaxies / Since the Big Bang Requires that Differences in Redshift Place the Objects at Different Locations, Astronomers Commonly Reject Arp’s Claims / But if he is Right, then there Was No Big Bang

    The Electric Sky
    Chapter 17: Redshift and the Big Bang
    by Don Scott

    Read more:
    – – –
    Redshift: Halton C. Arp is a professional astronomer who, earlier in his career, was Edwin Hubble’s assistant. He has earned the Helen B.Warner prize, the Newcomb Cleveland award and the Alexander von Humboldt Senior Scientist Award. For years he worked at the Mt. Palomar and Mt. Wilson observatories. While there, he developed his well known catalog of “Peculiar Galaxies” that are misshapen or irregular in appearance.

    Arp discovered, by taking photographs through the big telescopes, that many pairs of quasars (quasi-stellar objects) which have extremely high redshift z values (and are therefore thought to be receding from us very rapidly – and thus must be located at a great distance from us) are physically associated with galaxies that have low redshift and are known to be relatively close by. Arp has photographs of many pairs of high redshift quasars that are symmetrically located on either side of what he suggests are their parent, low redshift galaxies. These pairings occur much more often than the probabilities of random placement would allow. Mainstream astrophysicists try to explain away Arp’s observations of connected galaxies and quasars as being “illusions” or “coincidences of apparent location”. But, the large number of physically associated quasars and low red shift galaxies that he has photographed and cataloged defies that evasion. It simply happens too often.

    Because of Arp’s photos, the assumption that high red shift objects have to be very far away – on which the “Big Bang” theory and all of “accepted cosmology” is based – is proven to be wrong! The Big Bang theory is therefore falsified.

  51. oldbrew says:

    Truth about Greenland ice: DMI or NASA? You decide…

  52. oldbrew says:

    Feynman’s Lost Lecture: The Motion of Planets Around the Sun

    In a non-course lecture delivered to a freshman physics audience [March 13, 1964], Feynman undertakes to present an elementary, geometric demonstration of Newton’s discovery of the fact that Kepler’s first observation, that the planets travel in elliptical orbits, is a necessary consequence of Kepler’s other two observations.
    The lecture – sound only

    Feynman’s ellipse construction

  53. oldbrew says:

    JC: John Stossel sums it up succinctly in his article Earth Day Dopes:

    The alarmists claim they’re marching for “science,” but they’re really marching for a left-wing religion.
    – – –
    Robert Tracinski: The ‘March For Science’ Shows How Carl Sagan Ruined Science

    The organizers of the ‘March for Science’ follow the legacy of substituting a political narrative for the distinctive language and methods of science.

  54. oldbrew says:

    EXCLUSIVE: New Study Calls EPA’s Labeling Of CO2 A Pollutant ‘Totally False’

    Wallace, Christy and D’Aleo — a statistician, a climatologist and meteorologist, respectively — released a study claiming to invalidate EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding, which allowed the agency to regulate CO2 as a pollutant.

    “This research failed to find that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 14 temperature data sets that were analyzed,” the authors say in the release for the second edition of their peer-reviewed work.

    Read more:

  55. oldbrew says:

    Mercedes energy storage units headed for UK homes
    Scott Collie April 23, 2017

    Mercedes-Benz Energy says the components in its system will vary for each individual home, but most will likely include a solar system, a battery inverter, an energy-management system and (of course) the batteries themselves. Buyers will also need to pay for installation. Pricing will vary, but reports suggest a standard home system will cost around US$10,000, including installation.

    You’d have to be mad keen to pay that kind of money – unless there’s a big fat subsidy on offer.

  56. dai davies says:

    Since the Nikolov and Zeller post late last year I’ve been replicating their work – first in a spreadsheet then in Javascript with a GUI. I’ve found the exercise highly educational and it’s changed the way I view the thermodynamics of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere.

    I decided to expand the GUI so others can share the experience. It’s called the Open Climate Modeller and can be viewed at:

    The documentation is minimal and outdated, but I’m prepared to spend as much time as needed for a while answering questions and build the documentation up that way, following what others actually need to know rather than what I guess might be needed.

    Questions preferably public here so others can benefit or directed to: ocm_feedback at you know where, particularly if code related.

    Development came to a halt recently when I picked some low hanging fruit and became totally involved in trying to digest that. Oldbrew, if you could please email me, I have a problem that you might be able to help me with.


  57. Paul Vaughan says:

  58. martinkokus says:

    Old Brew and Tallbloke, If you would consider reviewing The Galileo of Palomar, send me your email and I’ll email you a copy.

  59. Paul Vaughan says:


    anormalized conway
    (1-φ)/Φ = -1
    (2-φ)/Φ = Φ
    (√5-φ)/Φ = 1

    min(1,2,√5) = 1
    max(1,2,√5) = √5

    mid-point of extrema defines 0 origin
    (√5+1)/2 = φ

    half-range of extrema defines 1 unit
    (√5-1)/2 = Φ

    coefficient of variation
    Φ/φ = (√5-1)/(√5+1)

    Solar cycle and asteroid belt sit in anti-resonance basin.

  60. Paul Vaughan says:

    “CV is utilized by economists and investors in economic models and in determining the volatility of a security

    The major western fault (red team infiltrant saboteur group) sledge-hammers all due attention to volatility. They have their lukewarm agenda and nothing’s stopping it. Their approach to risk: double-or-nothing-every-time-no-matter-what. It’s not acceptable. These are the types of people who will break the keys to stability in the ignition. Let them go.

  61. Paul Vaughan says:

    eye 3 spies division by 2:


  62. dai davies says:

    Radiative Heat Transfer in Planetary Atmospheres

    Dai Davies, PhD


    It is claimed that radiative gasses (RGs, or greenhouse gasses) trap heat radiated from the Earth’s surface causing it’s temperature to rise by 33 K above the theoretical temperature with no atmosphere. The word ‘trap’ is misleading. RGs delay the radiative transmission of heat from surface to space.

    I estimate this delay and conclude that its average impact on atmospheric temperatures, the Radiative Delay Effect (RDE), is in the order of 0.3 [0.1 to 1] K. This result is then placed in the broader context of atmospheric thermodynamics where it complements recent work on the air-surface interaction. The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.

    Anyone interested in hearing more? I need someone, or a few people, with the appropriate experience to check the physics before I’ll feel confident in going public with it.


  63. oldmanK says:

    @ dai davies. Quote ” The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.”

    This here-below is not what you asked for, coming from way beyond ‘the fringe’. However it is the most incontrovertible of proof, because there is no way one can escape what man-made evidence, functional, reverse engineered based on maths and human ingenuity (the builders not mine) and fully tested.

    At the below link there is a comparison of multiple proxies, all from/to same date, that show ‘events’ during the Holocene. All give some indication of abrupt change, — except CO2 which appears practically insensitive throughout.

  64. dai davies says:


    Data used to trump theory in science, but in these post-truth relativist days you get to choose which data suits you.

    There was a documentary a few years ago in which a young biologist said he had a theory that climate change would have an impact on whatever it was that he was studying, and he wouldn’t rest till he found evidence to support it. Neither he not the interviewer seemed aware that he was turning scientific method on its head and that he should have been looking for evidence that refuted his theory.

    An inconvenient truth for AGW is that the 33 K GHE is just an assumption. All other possible effects have been ignored. Someone please let me know if I’m wrong on that.

    Nikolov and Zeller have shown the 33 K to be wrong, and have explicitly suggested that it may be several times greater, but left open the possibility of other effects. What I think I’ve shown that RDE/GHE is at most few percent of 33 K, and a much smaller % of N&Z’s ATE.


  65. oldbrew says:

    First global simulation yields new insights into ring system
    April 27, 2017

    A team of researchers in Japan modeled the two rings around Chariklo, the smallest body in the Solar System known to have rings

    Read more at:

  66. oldbrew says:

    @ dai davies

    This post and its follow-up might be of interest:
    A new Lunar thermal model based on Finite Element Analysis of regolith physical properties

    The Diviner team … showed that the Moon’s average temperature is 197.3 Kelvin.

    While the temperature of the Moon is now known with impressive precision, would an airless Earth have the same temperature or would the different rates of rotation have an effect?

    Extending a new Lunar thermal model, Part II: Modelling an airless Earth

  67. oldbrew says:

    Lubos Motls expresses his opinion of climate alarmists…

    For years, I have stressed that the climate alarmist groups were dangerous terrorist organizations but I am afraid that lots of people will have to die before the society will realize this obvious point, outlaw them, execute their leaders, and treat them on par with the likes of Al Qaeda.

    He is upset after a fellow scientist had his office windows shot at on the day of the recent ‘march for science’.

  68. dai davies says:


    Thanks. I hadn’t seen those posts. Had a skim over first and will look properly tomorrow after eyes rested.

    In OCM you can set the number of ground layers and conductivity. Set as 100 layers for default. Selecting ‘Moon’ and recalculating eqbn. currently giving roughly Diviner values, but low for max and high for mean. It’s not fine tuned. Mainly interested in Earth.


  69. oldmanK says:

    dai davies,

    Re “There was a documentary a few years ago in which a young biologist said he had a theory——– that he should have been looking for evidence that refuted his theory.” Quite so. That situation is unfortunately prevalent. That is not research; more like the beginnings of a cult. However in my case and my example, I was looking for answers, with as much unconnected sources of evidence as I can find. The object/s in question is very real; no creation to bolster a theory.

    I am 100% in agreement here “Data used to trump theory in science, but in these post-truth relativist days you get to choose which data suits you.” . Except that it is worse than that, and has been so for centuries. That is, theory used to trump fact, and the evidence that proves the fact conveniently ignored. History is littered with such examples.

  70. oldbrew says:

    This belongs to a post from 2015: Why Phi? – a Jupiter-Neptune model

    This is the planetary chart used in the post (see comments below it):

    The number of conjunctions is just the difference between the number of orbits of two planets in any given time period.
    We have: 1547 J-N conjunctions = 19655 N-E (E = Earth)
    19655 / 1547 = 12.705235

    Or using the periods of 1 conjunction of each:
    12.782793y / 1.0061053y = 12.705223 (= the number of N-E conjunctions in the period of 1 J-N)

    Dividing by 3:
    12.705227 / 3 = 4.2350756

    The cube of the golden ratio is 4.2360679~
    The nearest Fibonacci match is 144/34 = 4.2352941 (99.9948% match)

    Therefore the expected number of N-E conjunctions per 1 J-N is almost exactly 3 * Phi³

  71. oldbrew says:

    Maybe, maybe not…

    D. Mail — A step closer to LIMITLESS energy: UK’s latest nuclear fusion reactor could supply the grid with clean power by 2030

    ‘by 2030, the reactor will provide clean energy to the UK’s national grid, according to its creators Tokamak Energy.’

    Read more:

  72. dai davies says:

    The timestep for the OCM surface calculations was set too long to cope with big jumps in atmosphere options and the calc was sometimes blowing up – NaNs in temp display. I’ve just now halved it to 5 seconds which should stop that, but double calc times.

    Something I am reminded of as I read through the comments on Tim’s 2014 posts is that the non-radiative atmosphere option in OCM is not really that. It just drops the role of radiation in the surface calcs. The atmosphere is still transporting energy radiatively and emitting to space.


  73. oldbrew says:

    Ian Wilson’s lunar conundrum…
    Thursday, April 20, 2017
    I Need Some Help to Solve an Interesting Lunar Puzzle

    NB this looks like a typo [in italics]:
    ‘1.0 FMC falls short of 15 anomalistic months (= 413.31824817 days) by 1.53381792 days (= 1.5117449198°). During these 1.5117449198 days the Perigee end of the lunar line-of-apse rotates by 0.17081406° in a prograde direction’

    Should read: 1.53381792 days
    – – –
    Then 1.5117449198° / (1.5117449198° – 0.17081406°) = 1.1273847 = number of sidereal years in one full moon cycle [see diagram above]

  74. oldbrew says:

    Alternative views…

    In this presentation, Bruce Leybourne will present climate as the interplay between Field Aligned Currents in the ionosphere and Induction Currents charging Earth’s core. He will show that climate change is driven by a transformer effect between plasma ring currents coupled to solar winds, which induce telluric currents in upper mantle structures grounded to the core. This transformer effect is strongest at the south-pole where the polar plasma jet is more strongly coupled to an upper mantle ridge structure encircling Antarctica. This effect exerts climate control over the planet via aligned tectonic vortex structures along the Western Pacific rim, electrically connected to the core. This is consistent with the “Earth Endogenous Energy” theory (Gregori, 2002 – Earth as a rechargeable battery/capacitor). Intense solar outbursts result in intense plasma impinging upon Earth, creating a modulating effect to atmospheric pressure, global Jet Stream patterns, global warming and cooling cycles. These changes are directly linked to charging and discharging phases of the Earth and result in fluctuations of Earth’s magnetic field cycles in rhythm with the climate.

    Bruce Leybourne: Earth as a Stellar Transformer — Climate Change Revealed

  75. Paul Vaughan says:

    Severe, suspicion-arousing error:

    The word “wind” comes up only once in an article about ocean welling and evaporation:
    “For the balance of thermals and evaporation, I assume that the rate varies linearly with temperature. In the real world, other factors such as wind speed are important, so there is an implicit assumption that these other factors remain unchanged.”

  76. oldbrew says:

    Square craters

    September 26, 2000 — Last month, astronomers were studying pictures of asteroid 433 Eros when they noticed some unusual craters. Most impact craters are circular, but these were square!

    The Arizona meteor crater is also said to be square, or square-ish.

  77. oldbrew says:


    Spatial energy distribution in a harmonic oscillator
    and the golden section
    B. Müller, E. Koyutürk, D. Göncü

    The occurrence of the golden section is well known in
    many areas of nature. In this paper we investigated its role
    in the harmonic oscillator.
    . . .
    In section IV and V the occurrence and the
    meaning of the golden section in other areas e.g. planetary
    systems, double pendulum and shockwaves [1]-[6] with the
    intention of finding parallelisms and explanations to our
    subject will be shown.
    . . .
    Φ is the most irrational number and causing
    the approaches and disturbances between the planets to be
    extremely irregular. ([7] SCHOLZ, 1987) Therefore the
    resonance effects cannot occur followed by stability as a

    Click to access a742003-028.pdf

  78. oldbrew says:

    Nature Unbound III: Holocene climate variability (Part A)
    Posted on April 30, 2017
    by Javier Vinos

    First in a two part series on Holocene climate variability.

    The Blytt-Sernander sequence fell out of fashion in the 1970s when new techniques allowed a more quantitative reconstruction of past climates. However, it captures the essence of Holocene climate as four periods of roughly 2500 years each

    ‘roughly 2500 years each’…

    Source =

    Each 2503 year cycle equates to 41 retrograde revolutions of J-S conjunctions, returning to the same starting position by the end of the cycle.

  79. Paul Vaughan says:

    Neither solar cycle length nor asteroid belt location were well understood in terms of Jupiter without awareness of Saturn & Phi.

    Vive la France.
    Bon courage.

  80. oldbrew says:

    Golden quantum oscillator and Binet–Fibonacci calculus
    Oktay K Pashaev and Sengul Nalci
    Published 1 December 2011 • 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd
    Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, Volume 45, Number 1

    The Binet formula for Fibonacci numbers is treated as a q-number and a q-operator with Golden ratio bases q = phiv and Q = −1/phiv, and the corresponding Fibonacci or Golden calculus is developed. A quantum harmonic oscillator for this Golden calculus is derived so that its spectrum is given only by Fibonacci numbers. The ratio of successive energy levels is found to be the Golden sequence, and for asymptotic states in the limit n → ∞ it appears as the Golden ratio. We call this oscillator the Golden oscillator. Using double Golden bosons, the Golden angular momentum and its representation in terms of Fibonacci numbers and the Golden ratio are derived. Relations of Fibonacci calculus with a q-deformed fermion oscillator and entangled N-qubit states are indicated.
    [bold added]

  81. oldbrew says:

    See diagram below from the Müller paper — oldbrew says: May 1, 2017 at 1:20 pm

    Click to access a742003-028.pdf

    This looks a lot like a Conway triangle. Red and black lines cross at 1.0 i.e. halfway along the amplitude axis.
    [epe = elastic potential energy, pot = potential, kin = kinetic]

  82. oldbrew says:

    Cassini finds ‘The Big Empty’ close to Saturn
    May 2, 2017

    Cassini engineers are delighted, while ring scientists are puzzled, that the region appears to be relatively dust-free.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Nothing found in the gap between two rings to bother the spacecraft.

  83. Paul Vaughan says:

    Recall that Mars had the biggest error in the original Hale Core Model.
    This was left aside for future exploration. Resumption:

    96 year Mars aliasing of Hale matches barycentric (9.93) – heliocentric (11.07) frame intersection.
    Sharpens Hale Core Model Mars frequency estimate:

    (factor of 32 improvement over parsimonious preliminary placeholder)

    Longer-run baseline (simple derivation left as an easy exercise):

    Further underscores earlier insight:
    Relation of Earth-Venus-coupling to Jupiter simply governed by Saturn.

    The conventional mainstream has been running model integrations numerically without careful, conscious conceptual attention to aggregation criteria, including spatiotemporal limits and balances. This is a mysterious case of not seeing the forest for the trees. The incomprehensible error suggests deep, mindless, blind entrenchment.

  84. Paul Vaughan says:

    Tip: Annual and semi-annual aliasing of LNC…

  85. oldbrew says:

    Rare ‘sprites’ photographed beside Southern Lights
    2 May 2017

  86. Sphene says:

    Icelandic mantle plume may be keeping parts of Scotland and Norway above sea level:

    ” The researchers suggest the fingers from the [mantle] plume may even explain why coastal Norway and northern Scotland manage to stay above the water line despite both existing over unusually thin parts of the crust. The plume material is buoyant, they note, which suggests parts of Norway and Scotland are actually floating.”

  87. oldbrew says:

    Report: First results from Jupiter probe show huge magnetism and storms

    Big planets come with big surprises. Last week, delegates at the annual European Geosciences Union meeting got the first glimpse of data from the Juno spacecraft now in orbit around Jupiter, and the findings are already challenging assumptions about everything from the planet’s atmosphere to its interior.

    “The whole inside of Jupiter is just working differently than our models expected,” said mission principal investigator Scott Bolton of the Southwest Research Institute in Texas.

  88. oldbrew says:

    Earth to Prof Hawking – get a grip.
    – – –
    Professor Stephen Hawking: Humans need to LEAVE Earth in 100 years

    PROFESSOR Stephen Hawking is to once again reiterate his point that humans need to leave Earth within a century if our species is to have any chance of surviving.

    PUBLISHED: 14:20, Wed, May 3, 2017

  89. oldbrew says:

    Rossby wave “quasi-resonance” theory
    – – –
    ‘It has been proposed that a number of regional weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere associated with blocked atmospheric circulation patterns may have been caused by quasi-resonant amplification of Rossby waves.[11] Examples include the 2013 European floods, the 2012 China floods, the 2010 Russian heat wave, the 2010 Pakistan floods and the 2003 European heat wave. Even taking global warming into account, the 2003 heat wave would have been highly unlikely without such a mechanism.’

    2015 study: Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes

    An important point is that these wave structures may arise
    from changes in the wave propagation properties of midlatitudes,
    caused by changes in the zonal mean climate state, in terms of
    the lower-troposphere temperature and zonal wind at the EBL
    [equivalent barotropic level]
    – – –
    Warmists want to claim the ‘changes in the zonal mean climate state’ are man-made.

  90. oldbrew says:

    EPA facing a legal challenge [petition]…

    DATE FILED May 2, 2017
    CASE STATUS Pending

    ‘The Texas Public Policy Foundation filed a petition with the Environmental Protection Agency challenging the EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding designating man-made greenhouse gas emissions as a danger to human health and welfare. In its rush to regulate greenhouse gases in 2009, the Obama Administration missed an important step. It failed to submit the greenhouse gas endangerment finding to the Science Advisory Board for peer review, as required by statute, and that violation is fatal to the endangerment finding.’

    Petition: ‘By ignoring the peer review requirement, EPA violated 42 U.S.C. § 4365(c)(1).’

  91. oldbrew says:

    NASA seeks 2 FORTRAN coders, must be US citizens over 18.

    “This is the ultimate ‘geek’ dream assignment,” said Doug Rohn, head of Nasa’s transformative aeronautics concepts program that makes heavy use of the FUN3D code.
    . . .
    Significant improvements could be gained just by simplifying a heavily used sub-routine so it runs a few milliseconds faster, said Nasa on the webpage describing the competition. If the routine is called millions of times during a simulation this could “significantly” trim testing times, it added.

    Apply for the job here:
    NASA says… TOTAL PRIZE AMOUNT $55,000

  92. Paul Vaughan says:

    Mars aliasing of Hale & Schwabe:

    harmonic of 22.1392998455063 nearest 1.8808476 is 1.84494165379219
    (1.844941654)*(1.8808476) / (1.844941654 – 1.8808476) = 96.64288086

    harmonic of 11.0696499227531 nearest 1.8808476 is 1.84494165379219
    (1.844941654)*(1.8808476) / (1.844941654 – 1.8808476) = 96.64288086

  93. oldbrew says:

    UK rainfall comparison April 2017

  94. oldbrew says:

    Inconvenient energy fact: It takes 79 solar workers to produce same amount of electric power as one coal worker

  95. oldbrew says:

    Biofuels get a hammering at the New York Times

    Scientists figured out that, far from being clean burning, cars that run on ethanol emit vast quantities of acetaldehyde, which reacts with sunlight to form ozone, a constituent of smog.

    And more…

  96. oldbrew says:

    Report: Huge impact crater discovered near the Falklands Islands

    Scientists have discovered what they believe is one of the biggest impact craters in the world near the Falklands Islands. They say the crater appears to date to between 270 and 250 million years ago, which, if confirmed, would link it to the world’s biggest mass extinction event, where 96 percent of life on Earth was wiped out.

  97. oldbrew says:

    Fact Check: are diesel cars really more polluting than petrol cars?
    May 2, 2017


    For most cars built over the past 20 years that may still be in use, petrol is likely to be less polluting overall than diesel. Petrol cars also require less maintenance to keep them performing at that level. But new, well maintained diesel cars, built to the latest standards have similar emissions to new petrol vehicles.
    – – –
    And CO2 is not a pollutant in terms of health.

  98. oldbrew says:

    Volkswagen’s large-scale move to electric power, coasting and natural gas
    May 3, 2017

    ‘at the 38th Vienna Motor Symposium, Volkswagen is presenting solutions for the CO2-neutral, sustainable mobility of the future.’

    If there’s enough ‘sustainable gas’ around 😉

  99. oldbrew says:

    Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

    Rémi Thiéblemont, Katja Matthes, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Kunihiko Kodera & Felicitas Hansen
    Nature Communications 6, Article number: 8268 (2015)

    Published online:
    15 September 2015


    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth’s regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings.
    [see link for more]

  100. oldbrew says:

    Has California exported a bit of its former drought to the UK?

    Britain’s trout population ‘on a knife edge’ as weeks of dry weather drains rivers to historic low levels

    Historic? Makes a change from ‘unprecedented’ 😉
    – – –
    Rainfall chart above [see — oldbrew says: May 5, 2017 at 10:12 am]

  101. oldbrew says:

    Cloud heights: nothing to see, move along…

    Too soon to say if climate is changing cloud heights
    May 8, 2017

    A new analysis of 15 years of NASA satellite cloud measurements finds that clouds worldwide show no definitive trend during this period toward decreasing or increasing in height. The new study updates an earlier analysis of the first 10 years of the same data that suggested cloud heights might be getting lower.

    Read more at:

  102. dai davies says:

    I’ve been going through the comments on Tim’s 2014 posts relating to Nikolov and Zeller’s ATE effect. One of the advantages of blogsphere discussion is the diversity of opinion and perspective that emerges, and the relative lack of coercive forces pushing to a consensus. They are a great example of the evolution of ideas. Through this process, our understanding of climate has tended to evolved rather than stagnating or coming to a deadlock of rigid standpoints as so often happens in academic debate.

    The downside is that key concepts can become buried. As I have said before, I think what is needed is summaries that allow people not deeply engaged in the debate over many years to look at general outcomes. As someone who for a long while has been just a casual observer I feel that strongly.

    To me, the central point of N&Z’s work is that the thermal buffering provided by the atmosphere is a distinct alternative process for heating the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. They warm even when there is no ‘trapping’ of heat in the atmosphere. To recap using my description in the delay article:

    The heat capacity of the surface is not strongly temperature dependent, so reducing its daytime temperature by 1 K removes the same amount of energy as is put back to increase it by 1 K at night. Due to the nonlinear relationship between energy radiated from the surface and temperature (E = εσT^4), reducing peak temperatures reduces radiated energy more than the same increase in lower temperatures increases it. The mean surface temperature increases to compensate and restore radiative balance over the daily cycle – the Atmospheric Thermal Enhancement effect or ATE.

    The current simple OCM model gives an ATE of 299 K mean for the tropics and 288 K for a more typical example, which suggests that it is capturing the dynamics quite well without any “greenhouse effect”.

    There is plenty of scope for fine tuning the details. The Earth is not a black body, or even a grey one. Getting the albedo right is a difficult problem. Oceans are another matter. I haven’t even attempted them yet.

    IF my delay calculations are correct, the ATE is left as the principal heating mechanism – as much as 99% of it.


  103. dai davies says:

    N&Z’s work is a paradigm shift. My work just mops up the small remainder. Here are some quotes from my radiative delay article:

    If we assumed, as the IPCC consensus science does, that radiative energy trapped in the atmosphere dictates its temperature and that of the Earth’s surface, we could scale down all their predictions by two orders of magnitude, but their view is not just an exaggeration it is fundamentally wrong.

    It is based on a false assumption, made and corrected a century or so ago, that the difference between the average surface temperature of the Earth and one calculated from basic radiative physics for no atmosphere is due totally to the effect of radiative gasses trapping heat. The gap in the water vapour absorption spectrum, which allows around 12% of radiation to escape directly to space, implies a major role for CO2 which partially blocks it. Clouds are assumed to block upwelling radiation in direct proportion to coverage.

    An alternative view (7) is that the thermodynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere and surface are dominated, not necessarily in this order, by: two-way air-surface heat transfer; evaporative cooling and cloud formation that increases sharply at 300 K creating a thermostat effect (8); atmospheric and ocean circulation transporting fluctuations in heat and carbon dioxide on time scales that vary from hours to millennia, creating natural cyclic variation in both; cloud nucleation modulated by solar activity providing basic driving cycles; cloud has a strong tendency to clump or striate, allowing IR to flow around it.

    The net heating effect of conductive heat transfer between the surface and lower atmosphere exists regardless of the presence of RGs, though they enhance it. This has been documented by Nikolov and Zeller (e.g. 9) and others, and is supported by the results of OCM calculations

    7: This view is the current personal perspective of the author. It is not meant to represent any form of collectivist or consensus view, though I am indebted to the many individuals who have informed it.

    8: Dai Davies, Energy and Atmosphere, Energy&Atmosphere.pdf

    and a more focussed view in the summary:

    The IPCC climate consensus view of radiative dynamics is that the sun heats the Earths’s surface. The surface sheds heat through radiation and other processes. Around 88% of that radiation is trapped by RGs in the atmosphere, heating it by 33 K. They radiate much of that heat back to the surface. Surface cooling is impeded and its temperature rises. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reduces the gap in the water vapour absorption spectrum that allows the 12% of surface radiation to escape directly to space, so further decreasing surface heat loss. This view assumes strong positive feedbacks. It has been claimed that these could cause runaway heating.

    A distinct alternate view, a paradigm shift, is that the sun heats the surface during the day. The surface sheds heat through radiation and other processes. Around 88% of this radiation is delayed by RGs in the atmosphere, heating it by less than 1 K. Doubling CO2 in the atmosphere would increase this heating by less than 0.01 K. Meanwhile, at the surface, the intrinsic atmospheric radiation generated by molecular collisions, along with direct thermal conduction, allow the atmosphere to act as a thermal buffer reducing the daily surface temperature range and in doing so cause the surface temperature to rise by 60 K or more. This surface heating mechanism is near saturation and is in no way prone to runaway heating.

    The results reported here support and quantify the latter view – one in which carbon dioxide plays an insignificant role.


  104. oldbrew says:

    Dai D – as soon as the word ‘surface’ is used, there’s a question: which surface?

    It could be land, liquid water or ice (sea or land varieties) for example.
    Water being the dominant surface area of course (> 70%).

  105. dai davies says:


    Yes! I agree. Lots more needed on this. I hope we can continue the discussion and exploration. For now, bed calls. It’s been a long day.

  106. oldbrew says:

    The Water Cycle: Evaporation

    Evaporation is more prevalent over the oceans than precipitation, while over the land, precipitation routinely exceeds evaporation

  107. oldbrew says:

    Wave 21

    The twenty-first wave of data was collected between 29 March – 2 April 2017 using face-to-face
    in-home interviews with a representative sample of 2,180 households in the UK.

    Click to access Summary_of_key_findings_BEIS_Public_Attitudes_Tracker_-_wave_21.pdf

  108. Paul Vaughan says:

    “relative lack of coercive forces pushing to a consensus”
    naivety isn’t answer — message from devil:

  109. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Evaporation is more prevalent over the oceans than precipitation, while over the land, precipitation routinely exceeds evaporation”

    ENSO matches variation of precipitation over land.

    “Britain’s trout population ‘on a knife edge’ as weeks of dry weather drains rivers to historic low levels”

    Concurrent heavy flooding of rivers on opposite side of ocean (eastern Canada).

    Daily max precipitation on one side of the mid-latitude ocean (absolute = NOT seasonally adjusted) is anti-correlated with max daily precipitation on the opposite side (on east-west axis).

  110. dai davies says:


    Exhaustive unbiassed exploration is not necessarily naivity or chaos. It’s nature and Life at work, relentlessly exploring every niche of its potential.

    The SIM-SATIRE paper figure 2 SATIRE data shows a variation of 0.2 K per W/m^2 at TOA. Halve this for surface gives 0.1 K.

    Take 4 W/m^2 said to be change due to CO2 levels and get 0.4 K change which matches many other measurements, eg Idso. My version of N&Z model in OCM gives just that value without any need for ‘trapping’ heat in atmosphere.

    Thanks for pointing me to another ref, even if unintentionally. Chaotically? 🙂


  111. dai davies says:

    Ignore the ‘other’. Theirs is modelled.


  112. oldbrew says:

    ‘Most rain on Earth falls in the tropical rain belt known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which on average lies 6° north of the equator. Over the past 15 years, it has become clear that the ITCZ position can shift drastically in response to remote changes, for example, in Arctic ice cover.’

    Or could it be the other way round?
    – – –
    No mention of the Arctic here:
    The Relationship between ITCZ Location and Cross-Equatorial Atmospheric Heat Transport: From the Seasonal Cycle to the Last Glacial Maximum

    The authors quantify the relationship between the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the atmospheric heat transport across the equator (AHTEQ) in climate models and in observations. The observed zonal mean ITCZ location varies from 5.3°S in the boreal winter to 7.2°N in the boreal summer with an annual mean position of 1.65°N while the AHTEQ varies from 2.1 PW northward in the boreal winter to 2.3 PW southward in the boreal summer with an annual mean of 0.1 PW southward. Seasonal variations in the ITCZ location and AHTEQ are highly anticorrelated in the observations and in a suite of state-of-the-art coupled climate models with regression coefficients of −2.7° and −2.4° PW−1 respectively. [etc]
    [bold added]

  113. oldbrew says:

    A technique to determine the mean molecular mass of a planetary
    atmosphere using pressure and temperature measurements made by an
    entry probe: Demonstration using Huygens data

    P. Withers (2007)

    It is possible to determine the mean molecular mass of a planetary atmosphere using pressure and temperature measurements made by an entry probe descending at terminal velocity. The descent trajectory of an entry probe can be determined from pressure, temperature, and mean molecular mass data. This technique offers redundancy for large entry probes in the event of a mass spectrometer failure and increases the potential scientific yield of small entry probes that do not carry mass spectrometers. This technique is demonstrated on Huygens atmospheric structure instrument (HASI) data from Titan. Accurate knowledge of entry probe and parachute drag coefficients is required for this technique to be useful.

    Click to access witherspss2007.pdf

    [full paper]

  114. oldbrew says:

    Battery Storage Goes Mainstream [it says here]

    U.S. energy storage deployments (MWh):

    Source: GTM Research/ESA (U.S. Energy Storage Monitor)

  115. dai davies says:


    May 9, 2017 at 1:53 pm: you correctly point out that the Earth has many surfaces.

    The surface assumed for the OCM ATE calculation is rock. I’ve added the ability to include dust or sand, evaporation, and convection, but they are only roughly parameterised. The albedo used is a global average, which needs to be broken down into realistic regional values.

    Wet surfaces – sea plus lakes or wet land surfaces – can be approached by mixing combinations of alternative processes for incident IR: increasing evaporation, immediate re-radiation, or near surface penetration that is re-radiated at night and adds to the ATE. For shorter wavelengths with more energy and deeper penetration, near surface mixing from wave action will produce day-night buffering and so contribute to the ATE.


  116. oldbrew says:

    Google Earth does a trick…

    ‘Lost’ forests found covering an area two-thirds the size of Australia
    May 12, 2017

    This study provides more accurate baseline information on the current status of carbon sinks, on which future carbon and climate modelling can be based. This will reduce errors for modelling of dryland regions worldwide.

    Read more at:

  117. oldbrew says:

    Aromatic pollutants emitted during combustion and wood burning contribute to the formation of brown clouds
    May 13, 2017

    The article published in Environmental Science and Technology reports the detailed chemical transformations of molecules emitted during forest fires, combustion in power plants, and industrial processes. The team of researchers determined that aromatic molecules can contribute to the formation of light-absorbing aerosols under relevant humid conditions.

    Furthermore, the significant generation of new molecules such as pyruvic acid in these pollution plumes can trigger aerosol formation in the presence of light. Reactions occurring on interfaces and under high relative humidity, which may have been overlooked in the past, can actually be the source of light-absorbing organic components in aerosols.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    The formation of secondary organic aerosol is one of the least well-understood atmospheric processes that scientists are working on.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Encyclopedia Britannica says:
    Because of the effects of the Asian brown cloud, India and China are dimmer at the surface today by at least 6 percent compared with their state in pre-industrial times.

  118. oldbrew says:

    But if land heats up faster, it should also cool down faster?

  119. dai davies says:

    Interesting channel


  120. dai davies says:

    OCM update

    You can save the OCM page ( to a desktop and run it there, but it is missing images. I’ve placed a zip file at (106Kb) which includes the image folder.

    To reduce size, not all the images are included. Now Easter has passed I can point out that if you click the cloud image there are other cloud images with (to me) interesting structure – a small selection from my growing collection. I’ve put these in /ftp/ (4.8Mb).


  121. ch sant says:

    oldbrew asks: “But if land heats up faster, it should also cool down faster?” It does. It is a matter of specific heat. Relative to water (which is 1.00; comparative basic) according to my ‘useful tables’, brickwork is 0.2, aluminium is 0.214, pine is 0.65. Thus pinewood louvres heat up slower than aluminium, and transmit less heat to the inside, because then thermal conductivity kicks in.

    Not so simple though, since with water, evaporation -or condensation at night-, upsets the simple equations.

  122. oldmanK says:

    previous post by oldmanK.

  123. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 27 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s