Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 25

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Explaining the accelerating expansion of the universe without dark energy
    March 30, 2017 by Dr Robert Massey

    Enigmatic ‘dark energy’, thought to make up 68% of the universe, may not exist at all, according to a Hungarian-American team. The researchers believe that standard models of the universe fail to take account of its changing structure, but that once this is done the need for dark energy disappears. The team publish their results in a paper in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    **Enigmatic ‘dark energy’** – elusive to say the least 😐
    – – –
    Simulation suggests 68 percent of the universe may not actually exist: New model shows accelerated expansion can happen without dark energy

    Read more:

  3. oldbrew says:

    The ratio of anomalistic months (AM) to the Chandler wobble (CW) period is about the same as the ratio of CW to the lunar nodal cycle (LNC).

    To put it another way: square root of LNC expressed as AM = CW
    6798.38 (LNC) / 27.55455 (AM) = 246.7244 AM
    √246.7244 = 15.707463 AM = 432.81207 days = ~CW
    – – –
    The Moon passes through the 2 extreme points–or apsides–perigee and apogee about once a month. The time it takes for the Moon to travel from perigee to perigee, is called the anomalistic month, and takes around 27.55455 days.

  4. oldbrew says:

    ‘The presence of negligible internal trends occurring over some oceanic regions, the region 30 – 60◦ N, and in tropospheric satellite temperatures, suggests that little of the heat being trapped in the atmosphere by anthropogenic greenhouse gases actually remains there.’

  5. oldbrew says:

    Australia – Deadly Floods Hit 2 States in Wake of Cyclone Debbie
    31 March, 2017

    Canungra in Queensland recorded 285 mm of rain in 1 day. In New South Wales Mullumbimby recorded over 300 mm of rain in 24 hours and the Tweed River reached levels not seen for over 40 years.

    Authorities have ordered over 20,000 people to evacuate their homes. Police in New South Wales have reported 2 possible flood-related deaths.

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    There are many important points but beware 2 major errors:

    Whether the 2 major errors are part of a deliberate strategy (distortion tactic) or founded on ignorance is (at this point in time) unknown.

    Once Again:

    The spatiotemporal step pattern can be constructed from solar cycle length (SCL).
    This was proven algebraically in 2011.

  7. oldbrew says:

  8. oldmanK says:

    Does that include the “pool to be” in the middle of the sitting room? Not a fresh water pool.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Sea ice melt only makes a small difference to sea levels.

    ‘because freshwater is not as dense as saltwater, freshwater actually has greater volume than an equivalent weight of saltwater’

  10. oldbrew says:

    Some interesting-looking links here…

    Week in review – science edition
    Posted on April 2, 2017
    by Judith Curry

    First few [for links go to JC’s site, above]:

    Sun’s impact on climate quantified for the first time [link]

    North Pacific 20th century decadal-scale variability is unique for the past 342 years [link]

    A reconstructed South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation time series since 1870 [link]

    A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate [link]

    An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation [link]

    Cosmic Rays Increase Cloud Cover, Earth’s Surface Cools [link]

    “New Studies Confirm Solar Activity Plays Important Role On Driving Climate” [link] …

    Removing #mountains from #EarthSystem models affects #ElNino amplitude, frequency & regularity. [link]

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Sun’s impact on climate quantified for the first time [link]”


  12. oldbrew says:

    UK shale gas extraction could be reduced by limited space to develop wells
    April 3, 2017

    Only a quarter of the shale gas contained in one of the UK’s largest reserves might be recoverable because of limited space to develop the wells needed to extract it, according to new research.

    Read more at:

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    April 4, 2017 at 12:54 am ·

    […] Chemists call it activation energy […] There is a necessary amount of energy needed to kick a reaction over a threshold. Anything less than that will not make it go. The acceptance of ideas follows the pattern. Interestingly, catalysts are a shortcut in some cases because they lower the activation threshold. When you are advancing a new idea in an established paradigm some thought about an appropriate catalyst might help. […]

    “To train a dog, one must be smarter than the dog.”

  14. oldbrew says:

    Venus length of day is the axial period of its orbit and rotation periods (retrograde rotation).
    V(LOD) / V(r) + V(LOD) / V(o) = 1 [or: 0.48042 + 0.51958]

    Mercury length of day is the beat period of its orbit and rotation periods (prograde rotation).
    Me(LOD) / Me(r) Me(LOD) / Me(o) = 1 [or: 3 – 2 = 1]

    The ratio of V(LOD) to Me(LOD) is very close to 3:2 (> 99.53% true).

  15. oldbrew says:

    Nature’s Brexit makes today’s political version look like a storm in a teacup.

    Professor Sanjeev Gupta, who led the study, from Imperial College London, said: “This was really one of the defining events for north west Europe – and certainly the defining event in Britain’s history.”

  16. oldbrew says:

    A new satellite is recording unprecedented views of deadly storms and tornadoes from space
    Satellite will reveal features of storms that previous instruments might have missed
    PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 05 April, 2017

    A time-lapse animation [see link] shows about 90 minutes of the storm moving through northern Louisiana.
    Both recordings are of infrared light, which humans can’t see but can detail a storm’s inner structure.

  17. oldbrew says:

    Google Street View cars now sniffing out methane leaks
    Rich Haridy March 23, 2017

    A New Jersey utility company has already approved nearly US$1 billion worth of pipeline upgrades with direct input from the early pilot research. The team currently has four Google Street View cars outfitted with methane sensors roaming the streets and hopes to deploy the system across more cities in the United States.

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    More than 400 icebergs have drifted into the North Atlantic shipping lanes over the past week […] unusually large swarm for this early in the season […]

    […] uncommonly strong counter-clockwise winds that are drawing the icebergs south […]
    […] predicting a fourth consecutive “extreme ice season” with more than 600 icebergs in the shipping lanes.
    In 2014, there were 1,546 icebergs in the shipping lanes – the sixth most severe season on record since 1900, according to the patrol. There were 1,165 icebergs in 2015 and 687 in 2016.

  19. oldbrew says:

    Two eminent climate scientists discuss the policy debate. Their clash tells us much.

    [See: ‘A climate scientist responds to the Director

    Professor Roger Pielke Sr. […] sent the House committee a response to Dr. Seitter’s letter, looking at key excerpts.’]

  20. oldbrew says:

    The next Carrington Event

    All we can be certain of is that the Earth will sooner or later be impacted by another major CME, and probably sooner rather than later because major CMEs occur about once every 150 years and the last one – the Carrington Event – occurred 158 years ago.

    The disruptions caused by a large CME could last for a year or more, with the reason being that the high-voltage transformers that are particularly vulnerable to damage during solar storms are not available off-the-shelf; they have to be manufactured.

  21. Paul Vaughan says:


  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    Aggregation criteria reminder:

  23. oldbrew says:

    Date: 07/04/17

    The sooner the better for this witless nonsense.

  24. oldbrew says:

    Australia: Stargazing Live viewers find four-planet solar system via crowd-sourcing project

    Stargazing Live host Professor Brian Cox said he could not be more excited about the discovery.

    “In the seven years I’ve been making Stargazing Live this is the most significant scientific discovery we’ve ever made. The results are astonishing,” he said.

  25. oldbrew says:

    Here comes Boaty McBoatface…no, really – it’s true.

    McBoatface lead scientist: how famed submarine will help unlock the causes of deep sea warming

    That’s their story anyway – some salty naval yarns must lie ahead 😉

    [Credit: PA]

  26. oldbrew says:


    The EPA lied — nobody died

    EPA forced to back down over particulates claims.

  27. oldbrew says:

    Tony Heller analyses some dodgy temperature graphs from the likes of NASA…

  28. oldbrew says:

    Supersonic plasma jets discovered in Earth’s upper atmosphere
    Michael Irving March 28, 2017

    A few months after spotting a jet stream of molten iron in the Earth’s outer core, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Swarm satellites have found a similar system at work in the upper atmosphere. There, the electrical fields created through solar winds interacting with the planet’s magnetic field have been found to drive supersonic plasma jets, which can heat the ionosphere to temperatures as high as 10,000º C (18,032º F).

  29. Paul Vaughan says:

    “the true north strong and free”
    Spatiotemporal Central Limit 101:

    Centennial stability’s the easy way to spatially balance multidecadal northern temporal disturbance.
    Breaking keys to northern centennial stability in multidecadal ignition suggests major western fault.

  30. oldbrew says:

    New Scientist: Mars is so small because Jupiter shook up its formation

    Models of our solar system’s formation suggest that Mars should be between 1.5 and two times Earth’s mass. Instead, it weighs in at a mere one-tenth the mass of our world.

    Now an old theory that might explain why is resurfacing: gas left over from the formation of Jupiter meddled with the rocks that ultimately built Mars, making them fall apart rather than clump together.

  31. oldbrew says:

    The Golden Section: A Building Block of Cyclic Structure (1992)

    by Theodor Landscheidt

    ‘FIGURE 6. 36-year running variance in the sun’s orbital angular momentum, 700 to 1600. All extrema coincide with observed Gleissberg minima (arrows). This is also true for later centuries. The next Gleissberg minimum, expected around 2026, will be a deep minimum of the Maunder minimum type.’ [bold added]
    – – –
    The ’36 year’ period is really 1/5th of the ~179 year Jose cycle hence Landscheidt’s term the ‘big hand’ (five big fingers).
    13 Big Hands = ~21 Hale cycles (solar)
    13 and 21 are consecutive Fibonacci numbers
    21 / 13 = 1.6153846 (golden ratio = 1.618~)

    Note the prediction was made 25 years ago and solar behaviour is pointing strongly in the direction suggested by Landscheidt.
    – – –
    A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades
    By Kenneth Richard on 10. April 2017

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    2535 values of daily LOD have been “adjusted” for dates between Dec. 22, 1992 and Jan. 1, 2000.

  33. oldbrew says:

    Researchers Solve Critical Flaw in Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

    Scientists have created a thin composite film that gives lithium–sulfur cells exceptional durability

    Compared to the common lithium-ion battery, lithium-sulfur batteries have important advantages: They use cheaper materials and weigh less. A lithium-sulfur cell can have almost double the energy of a lithium-ion cell for the same mass, yielding an edge where energy density is critical, like in portable electronics or in cars.

  34. oldbrew says:

    Solar storms can drain electrical charge above Earth
    April 11, 2017

    If erupted solar material reaches Earth, it can deplete the electrons in the upper atmosphere in some locations while adding electrons in others, disrupting communications either way.
    . . .
    The electrons in the ionosphere normally reflect radio waves back to ground level, enabling long-distance radio communications. Both electron depletion and electron increases in this layer can possibly cause radio communications to fail, reduce the accuracy of GPS systems, damage satellites and harm electrical grids.

    “We don’t know exactly what causes the depletion”

    Read more at:

  35. Andrew says:

    What do we have here.

  36. oldbrew says:

    Thanks Andrew, definitely worth a look.

    ‘Global circulation model (GCM) simulations are generally used to investigate the causality of climate change. However, due to the limited knowledge of the climate system, large uncertainties are still associated with GCMs’

    Putting that out in a published paper probably won’t go down well in some quarters.

    Some of their ideas aren’t too far away from our analysis here.

    E.g. their 215 year de Vries cycle is 208.58~ years in our chart.

  37. oldbrew says:

    [UK] Government challenged over emissions reduction plan as pressure to publish mounts
    NEWS / 11 April 2017

    Threats of court action here.
    – – –
    The Climate Change Act targets can be ‘altered’ if the government chooses to do so, but…

    ‘Inevitably, the Act provides for the amendment of both the baseline and the 2050 target by order. However, the circumstances in which such an amendment may be made are limited to where there have been significant developments in (i) scientific knowledge about climate change since the Act was passed or (ii) European or international law or policy that make it appropriate to do so (s 2(2)).’ ²

    ² ‘The Climate Change Committee, which will be considered below, has a statutory duty to advise on the possible amendment of 2050 target: s 33(1). No amendment can be made without taking into account that advice: s 3(1)(a).’
    – – –
    The Climate Change Committee says:
    ‘Current policy in the UK is not enough to deliver the existing carbon budgets that Parliament
    has set.’
    – – –
    Reported by The Independent:
    H/T Climate Realists []

  38. Paul Vaughan says:

    a link to the SFA paper referenced in the article to which Andrew pointed:

  39. oldbrew says:

    Sunlight sparks chemical reactions in the lower atmosphere
    April 15, 2017

    The formation of secondary organic aerosol is one of the least well-understood atmospheric processes that scientists are working on.

  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    Correction of the major western fault is assured by simple geometry.
    From the shores of Enceladus & Europa, valley-bottom anti-resonance:

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    Enceladusians & Europans ask how long it takes their primary companions to combine contributions to sweep out half a circle.

    (14.723749)*(5.9313075) / (14.723749 + 5.9313075) = 4.228072815 years
    (4.228072815)(√5+1)/(√5-1) = 11.06923834 years

    Draw a line.
    Slash the circle in half:

    T^2=r^3 converts:
    ((4.228072815)^2)^(1/3) = 2.614738763 AU

    Simpler than you can imagine.

    Next up:

    Q: What is the simple difference between light cycles and gravity cycles?
    A: bidecadal oscillation, multidecadal oscillation, volcanic aerosol cycles.

    From any perturbation, it’s downhill back to antiresonant basins of attraction.

  42. oldbrew says:

    PV – re: (4.228072815)(√5+1)/(√5-1) = 11.06923834 years

    4.228072815 is close to 55/13 (Fibonacci) = 4.2307692 years (> 99.93% match)
    Φ³ = √5 + 2 = 4.2360679

  43. oldbrew says:

    BBC news: Theresa May announces plan to call general election on 8 June

    PM says new poll is in the national interest
    Election is only way to guarantee certainty and stability in the wake of Brexit, May says
    May says she “recently and reluctantly” came to the conclusion that a vote was necessary

    – – –
    The Sun, 4th Nov. 2016 said:
    Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017

  44. oldbrew says:

    Long lost city found: Etzanoa of the great Wichita Nation

    Make note of the name Etzanoa, a long-lost city. Donald Blakeslee says he’s found it.

    The discovery could put south-central Kansas on the map as the second-biggest settlement of Native Americans found in the United States, Blakeslee said. And it’s now, finally, the known location of a 1601 battle pitting outnumbered Spaniards firing cannon into waves of attacking Indian warriors.

    Etzanoa has remained a mystery for 400 years. Archaeologists could not find it. Historians thought reports of a permanent settlement with 20,000 Native Americans in it were exaggerated.

    But here in Arkansas City, at the confluence of the Walnut and Arkansas Rivers, Blakeslee, an anthropologist and archaeologist at Wichita State University, has found evidence of a massive town stretching across thousands of acres of bluffs and rich bottomland along two rivers. What clinched it was the discovery, by a high school kid, of a half-inch iron cannon ball.

  45. oldbrew says:

    Wintry Easter weather in Germany – in photos.

    Easter for many across Germany meant either snow, rain, or even both over the weekend. And the chilly weather is set to continue.

    From Berlin down to Munich, snow fell across the country over the Easter weekend, making the springtime holiday feel more wintry than perhaps many had hoped.

    Heavy snowfall in Germany, Austria, Norway, Italy, Poland, Czech Republic
    APRIL 18, 2017

    Winter returns to Eastern Europe.

    By Meteorologist Paul Dorian
    Vencore, Inc.

  46. oldbrew says:

    Nights warm faster
    Posted on April 19, 2017 by Clive Best

  47. oldbrew says:

    Here we go again…

    Newly discovered exoplanet may be best candidate in search for signs of life
    April 19, 2017

    “The LHS 1140 system might prove to be an even more important target for the future characterisation of planets in the habitable zone than Proxima b or TRAPPIST-1. This has been a remarkable year for exoplanet discoveries!”

    Read more at:

  48. martinkokus says:

    I would like to bring to your attention the recent publication of the Halton Arp memorial volume, The Galileo of Palomar. Starting on page 153 there are 3 articles which deal with various coincidences that exist among various constants including links between the Fibonacci number and Arp’s constant.
    Martin Kokus

  49. oldbrew says:

    Halton Arp, the Modern Galileo: He Was a Professional Astronomer Who Began his Career as Edwin Hubble’s Assistant / While Compiling a List of Peculiar Galaxies, Arp Discovered that High-Redshift Quasars are Commonly Associated with or Even Connected by Filaments to Lower-Redshift Galaxies / Since the Big Bang Requires that Differences in Redshift Place the Objects at Different Locations, Astronomers Commonly Reject Arp’s Claims / But if he is Right, then there Was No Big Bang

    The Electric Sky
    Chapter 17: Redshift and the Big Bang
    by Don Scott

    Read more:
    – – –
    Redshift: Halton C. Arp is a professional astronomer who, earlier in his career, was Edwin Hubble’s assistant. He has earned the Helen B.Warner prize, the Newcomb Cleveland award and the Alexander von Humboldt Senior Scientist Award. For years he worked at the Mt. Palomar and Mt. Wilson observatories. While there, he developed his well known catalog of “Peculiar Galaxies” that are misshapen or irregular in appearance.

    Arp discovered, by taking photographs through the big telescopes, that many pairs of quasars (quasi-stellar objects) which have extremely high redshift z values (and are therefore thought to be receding from us very rapidly – and thus must be located at a great distance from us) are physically associated with galaxies that have low redshift and are known to be relatively close by. Arp has photographs of many pairs of high redshift quasars that are symmetrically located on either side of what he suggests are their parent, low redshift galaxies. These pairings occur much more often than the probabilities of random placement would allow. Mainstream astrophysicists try to explain away Arp’s observations of connected galaxies and quasars as being “illusions” or “coincidences of apparent location”. But, the large number of physically associated quasars and low red shift galaxies that he has photographed and cataloged defies that evasion. It simply happens too often.

    Because of Arp’s photos, the assumption that high red shift objects have to be very far away – on which the “Big Bang” theory and all of “accepted cosmology” is based – is proven to be wrong! The Big Bang theory is therefore falsified.

  50. oldbrew says:

    Truth about Greenland ice: DMI or NASA? You decide…

  51. oldbrew says:

    Feynman’s Lost Lecture: The Motion of Planets Around the Sun

    In a non-course lecture delivered to a freshman physics audience [March 13, 1964], Feynman undertakes to present an elementary, geometric demonstration of Newton’s discovery of the fact that Kepler’s first observation, that the planets travel in elliptical orbits, is a necessary consequence of Kepler’s other two observations.
    The lecture – sound only

    Feynman’s ellipse construction

  52. oldbrew says:

    JC: John Stossel sums it up succinctly in his article Earth Day Dopes:

    The alarmists claim they’re marching for “science,” but they’re really marching for a left-wing religion.
    – – –
    Robert Tracinski: The ‘March For Science’ Shows How Carl Sagan Ruined Science

    The organizers of the ‘March for Science’ follow the legacy of substituting a political narrative for the distinctive language and methods of science.

  53. oldbrew says:

    EXCLUSIVE: New Study Calls EPA’s Labeling Of CO2 A Pollutant ‘Totally False’

    Wallace, Christy and D’Aleo — a statistician, a climatologist and meteorologist, respectively — released a study claiming to invalidate EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding, which allowed the agency to regulate CO2 as a pollutant.

    “This research failed to find that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 14 temperature data sets that were analyzed,” the authors say in the release for the second edition of their peer-reviewed work.

    Read more:

  54. oldbrew says:

    Mercedes energy storage units headed for UK homes
    Scott Collie April 23, 2017

    Mercedes-Benz Energy says the components in its system will vary for each individual home, but most will likely include a solar system, a battery inverter, an energy-management system and (of course) the batteries themselves. Buyers will also need to pay for installation. Pricing will vary, but reports suggest a standard home system will cost around US$10,000, including installation.

    You’d have to be mad keen to pay that kind of money – unless there’s a big fat subsidy on offer.

  55. dai davies says:

    Since the Nikolov and Zeller post late last year I’ve been replicating their work – first in a spreadsheet then in Javascript with a GUI. I’ve found the exercise highly educational and it’s changed the way I view the thermodynamics of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere.

    I decided to expand the GUI so others can share the experience. It’s called the Open Climate Modeller and can be viewed at:

    The documentation is minimal and outdated, but I’m prepared to spend as much time as needed for a while answering questions and build the documentation up that way, following what others actually need to know rather than what I guess might be needed.

    Questions preferably public here so others can benefit or directed to: ocm_feedback at you know where, particularly if code related.

    Development came to a halt recently when I picked some low hanging fruit and became totally involved in trying to digest that. Oldbrew, if you could please email me, I have a problem that you might be able to help me with.


  56. Paul Vaughan says:

  57. martinkokus says:

    Old Brew and Tallbloke, If you would consider reviewing The Galileo of Palomar, send me your email and I’ll email you a copy.

  58. Paul Vaughan says:


    anormalized conway
    (1-φ)/Φ = -1
    (2-φ)/Φ = Φ
    (√5-φ)/Φ = 1

    min(1,2,√5) = 1
    max(1,2,√5) = √5

    mid-point of extrema defines 0 origin
    (√5+1)/2 = φ

    half-range of extrema defines 1 unit
    (√5-1)/2 = Φ

    coefficient of variation
    Φ/φ = (√5-1)/(√5+1)

    Solar cycle and asteroid belt sit in anti-resonance basin.

  59. Paul Vaughan says:

    “CV is utilized by economists and investors in economic models and in determining the volatility of a security

    The major western fault (red team infiltrant saboteur group) sledge-hammers all due attention to volatility. They have their lukewarm agenda and nothing’s stopping it. Their approach to risk: double-or-nothing-every-time-no-matter-what. It’s not acceptable. These are the types of people who will break the keys to stability in the ignition. Let them go.

  60. Paul Vaughan says:

    eye 3 spies division by 2:


  61. dai davies says:

    Radiative Heat Transfer in Planetary Atmospheres

    Dai Davies, PhD


    It is claimed that radiative gasses (RGs, or greenhouse gasses) trap heat radiated from the Earth’s surface causing it’s temperature to rise by 33 K above the theoretical temperature with no atmosphere. The word ‘trap’ is misleading. RGs delay the radiative transmission of heat from surface to space.

    I estimate this delay and conclude that its average impact on atmospheric temperatures, the Radiative Delay Effect (RDE), is in the order of 0.3 [0.1 to 1] K. This result is then placed in the broader context of atmospheric thermodynamics where it complements recent work on the air-surface interaction. The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.

    Anyone interested in hearing more? I need someone, or a few people, with the appropriate experience to check the physics before I’ll feel confident in going public with it.


  62. oldmanK says:

    @ dai davies. Quote ” The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.”

    This here-below is not what you asked for, coming from way beyond ‘the fringe’. However it is the most incontrovertible of proof, because there is no way one can escape what man-made evidence, functional, reverse engineered based on maths and human ingenuity (the builders not mine) and fully tested.

    At the below link there is a comparison of multiple proxies, all from/to same date, that show ‘events’ during the Holocene. All give some indication of abrupt change, — except CO2 which appears practically insensitive throughout.

  63. dai davies says:


    Data used to trump theory in science, but in these post-truth relativist days you get to choose which data suits you.

    There was a documentary a few years ago in which a young biologist said he had a theory that climate change would have an impact on whatever it was that he was studying, and he wouldn’t rest till he found evidence to support it. Neither he not the interviewer seemed aware that he was turning scientific method on its head and that he should have been looking for evidence that refuted his theory.

    An inconvenient truth for AGW is that the 33 K GHE is just an assumption. All other possible effects have been ignored. Someone please let me know if I’m wrong on that.

    Nikolov and Zeller have shown the 33 K to be wrong, and have explicitly suggested that it may be several times greater, but left open the possibility of other effects. What I think I’ve shown that RDE/GHE is at most few percent of 33 K, and a much smaller % of N&Z’s ATE.


  64. oldbrew says:

    First global simulation yields new insights into ring system
    April 27, 2017

    A team of researchers in Japan modeled the two rings around Chariklo, the smallest body in the Solar System known to have rings

    Read more at:

  65. oldbrew says:

    @ dai davies

    This post and its follow-up might be of interest:
    A new Lunar thermal model based on Finite Element Analysis of regolith physical properties

    The Diviner team … showed that the Moon’s average temperature is 197.3 Kelvin.

    While the temperature of the Moon is now known with impressive precision, would an airless Earth have the same temperature or would the different rates of rotation have an effect?

    Extending a new Lunar thermal model, Part II: Modelling an airless Earth

  66. oldbrew says:

    Lubos Motls expresses his opinion of climate alarmists…

    For years, I have stressed that the climate alarmist groups were dangerous terrorist organizations but I am afraid that lots of people will have to die before the society will realize this obvious point, outlaw them, execute their leaders, and treat them on par with the likes of Al Qaeda.

    He is upset after a fellow scientist had his office windows shot at on the day of the recent ‘march for science’.

  67. dai davies says:


    Thanks. I hadn’t seen those posts. Had a skim over first and will look properly tomorrow after eyes rested.

    In OCM you can set the number of ground layers and conductivity. Set as 100 layers for default. Selecting ‘Moon’ and recalculating eqbn. currently giving roughly Diviner values, but low for max and high for mean. It’s not fine tuned. Mainly interested in Earth.


  68. oldmanK says:

    dai davies,

    Re “There was a documentary a few years ago in which a young biologist said he had a theory——– that he should have been looking for evidence that refuted his theory.” Quite so. That situation is unfortunately prevalent. That is not research; more like the beginnings of a cult. However in my case and my example, I was looking for answers, with as much unconnected sources of evidence as I can find. The object/s in question is very real; no creation to bolster a theory.

    I am 100% in agreement here “Data used to trump theory in science, but in these post-truth relativist days you get to choose which data suits you.” . Except that it is worse than that, and has been so for centuries. That is, theory used to trump fact, and the evidence that proves the fact conveniently ignored. History is littered with such examples.

  69. oldbrew says:

    This belongs to a post from 2015: Why Phi? – a Jupiter-Neptune model

    This is the planetary chart used in the post (see comments below it):

    The number of conjunctions is just the difference between the number of orbits of two planets in any given time period.
    We have: 1547 J-N conjunctions = 19655 N-E (E = Earth)
    19655 / 1547 = 12.705235

    Or using the periods of 1 conjunction of each:
    12.782793y / 1.0061053y = 12.705223 (= the number of N-E conjunctions in the period of 1 J-N)

    Dividing by 3:
    12.705227 / 3 = 4.2350756

    The cube of the golden ratio is 4.2360679~
    The nearest Fibonacci match is 144/34 = 4.2352941 (99.9948% match)

    Therefore the expected number of N-E conjunctions per 1 J-N is almost exactly 3 * Phi³

  70. oldbrew says:

    Maybe, maybe not…

    D. Mail — A step closer to LIMITLESS energy: UK’s latest nuclear fusion reactor could supply the grid with clean power by 2030

    ‘by 2030, the reactor will provide clean energy to the UK’s national grid, according to its creators Tokamak Energy.’

    Read more:

  71. dai davies says:

    The timestep for the OCM surface calculations was set too long to cope with big jumps in atmosphere options and the calc was sometimes blowing up – NaNs in temp display. I’ve just now halved it to 5 seconds which should stop that, but double calc times.

    Something I am reminded of as I read through the comments on Tim’s 2014 posts is that the non-radiative atmosphere option in OCM is not really that. It just drops the role of radiation in the surface calcs. The atmosphere is still transporting energy radiatively and emitting to space.


  72. oldbrew says:

    Ian Wilson’s lunar conundrum…
    Thursday, April 20, 2017
    I Need Some Help to Solve an Interesting Lunar Puzzle

    NB this looks like a typo [in italics]:
    ‘1.0 FMC falls short of 15 anomalistic months (= 413.31824817 days) by 1.53381792 days (= 1.5117449198°). During these 1.5117449198 days the Perigee end of the lunar line-of-apse rotates by 0.17081406° in a prograde direction’

    Should read: 1.53381792 days
    – – –
    Then 1.5117449198° / (1.5117449198° – 0.17081406°) = 1.1273847 = number of sidereal years in one full moon cycle [see diagram above]

  73. oldbrew says:

    Alternative views…

    In this presentation, Bruce Leybourne will present climate as the interplay between Field Aligned Currents in the ionosphere and Induction Currents charging Earth’s core. He will show that climate change is driven by a transformer effect between plasma ring currents coupled to solar winds, which induce telluric currents in upper mantle structures grounded to the core. This transformer effect is strongest at the south-pole where the polar plasma jet is more strongly coupled to an upper mantle ridge structure encircling Antarctica. This effect exerts climate control over the planet via aligned tectonic vortex structures along the Western Pacific rim, electrically connected to the core. This is consistent with the “Earth Endogenous Energy” theory (Gregori, 2002 – Earth as a rechargeable battery/capacitor). Intense solar outbursts result in intense plasma impinging upon Earth, creating a modulating effect to atmospheric pressure, global Jet Stream patterns, global warming and cooling cycles. These changes are directly linked to charging and discharging phases of the Earth and result in fluctuations of Earth’s magnetic field cycles in rhythm with the climate.

    Bruce Leybourne: Earth as a Stellar Transformer — Climate Change Revealed

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