Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 26

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Mega-Quakes Can Cause Earth’s Crust to Rip Open and Snap Shut

    Like a crocodile’s jaw opening and snapping shut, Earth’s crust can rip apart and then violently close back up during an earthquake, a new study finds. The discovery refutes previous claims that this kind of phenomenon was impossible, and the new research could potentially require that current seismic maps be redrawn.

  3. oldmanK says:

    Quote oldbrew: “Mega-Quakes Can Cause Earth’s Crust to Rip Open and Snap Shut”. A lot worse can happen, and all one has to study is the evidence around us.

    A fault line can open, swallow the sedimentary rock crust on one side leaving the clay layer below exposed at the bottom of a valley. Obvious? Yes, when an ancient track leading up to the edge on the surviving side and ends in mid air. On the other side the upper sedimentary rock is again found a kilometer on. Or even worse still.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Is Italy’s SUPERVOLCANO about to blow? Experts warn that Campi Flegrei is at a ‘critical stage’ in the build up to a devastating eruption

    Campi Flegrei is a supervolcano located outside the western suburbs of Naples
    Its last devastating eruption was in 1538, following a century of unrest
    The volcano has been restless again since 1950, with regular earthquakes
    There is now a build up in energy in the crust similar to the 1538 eruption
    If it does erupt, experts believe it would affect 360,000 people living across the caldera and Naples’ population of nearly one million

    Professor Giuseppe De Natale, who also worked on the study, said: ‘Most damage in previous crises was caused by the seismic shaking of buildings.

    ‘Our findings show that we must be ready for a greater amount of local seismicity during another uplift and that we must adapt our preparations for another emergency, whether or not it leads to an eruption.’

    Read more:

  5. oldbrew says:

    AeroVironment unveils palm-sized surveillance drone for U.S. military

    Kirk Flittie, AeroVironment’s vice president in charge of unmanned aircraft systems, said in a statement the Snipe copter drone is “designed to be worn by its operator so it can be deployed in less than a minute.”

    The aircraft, which is intended for intelligence and reconnaissance missions, can relay high-resolution images and record video both day and night. It can fly at speeds of 20 mph (35 kph), has a range of more than a kilometer (half-mile), and can fly for about 15 minutes on batteries, the statement said.

    Shades of Spielberg’s insect robots…’These insects will be capable of reconnaissance missions in dangerous areas not fit for soldiers’

  6. oldbrew says:

    4 Graphs That Demonstrate Why The IPCC Climate Models Will NEVER Be Accurate

    From my explanation above there is 0.00% chance that the IPCC models will ever produce results that match the “unadjusted” satellite and balloon data. The only way the IPCC models will ever work is if they continue to “adjust” the NOAA/GISS/HadCRU data to make it more linear and steep.

  7. oldbrew says:

    IBT: Stephen Hawking and 32 top physicists pen furious letter on how the universe began

    Two groups of physicists have sparked a heated debate on the origins of the universe.
    . . .
    Hawking and his colleagues’ letter was in response to the article published in early February, which heavily criticised the inflation theory – that the universe expanded like a balloon just after the Big Bang. In the article originally titled Pop Goes the Universe, physicists Anna Ijjas, Paul J Steinhardt, Abraham Loeb went so far as to deem that the theory “cannot be evaluated using the scientific method”.

  8. oldbrew says:

    ‘Lava lamp’ theory of magnetic reversals

    ‘Several ideas exist to explain why magnetic field reversals happen. One of these just became more plausible. My colleagues and I discovered that regions on top of the Earth’s core could behave like giant lava lamps, with blobs of rock periodically rising and falling deep inside our planet. This could affect its magnetic field and cause it to flip. The way we made this discovery was by studying signals from some of the world’s most destructive earthquakes.’

    ‘After a particularly large earthquake, the whole planet vibrates like a ringing bell’

  9. oldmanK says:

    Magnetic reversals (oldbrew’s earlier post) were an interesting subject, in the hope that they would indicate Earth crust movement in specific areas of interest -personal-. But there is a caveat.

    Other material is pointing to the probability that crust movement happens, due mainly to the Coriolis effect. Meaning that evidence of magnetic change may be the result of surface re-orientation and not magnetic field reversal.

    This may be found interesting: section 8 may be interesting in another setting.

  10. craigm350 says:

    A Long-Sought Proof, Found and Almost Lost

    When a German retiree proved a famous long-standing mathematical conjecture, the response was underwhelming.
    As for the proof’s muted reception, Royen wasn’t particularly disappointed or surprised. “I am used to being frequently ignored by scientists from [top-tier] German universities,” he wrote in an email. “I am not so talented for ‘networking’ and many contacts. I do not need these things for the quality of my life.”

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    From craigm350’s link:

    Upon seeing the proof, “I really kicked myself,” Richards said. Over the decades, he and other experts had been attacking the GCI with increasingly sophisticated mathematical methods, certain that bold new ideas in convex geometry, probability theory or analysis would be needed to prove it. Some mathematicians, after years of toiling in vain, had come to suspect the inequality was actually false. In the end, though, Royen’s proof was short and simple, filling just a few pages and using only classic techniques. Richards was shocked that he and everyone else had missed it.
    “I had developed a conceptual way of thinking about this that perhaps I was overly wedded to,” Pitt said. “And what Royen did was kind of diametrically opposed to what I had in mind.”
    “In mathematics, it occurs frequently that a seemingly difficult special problem can be solved by answering a more general question,”

  12. oldbrew says:

    Hubble spots moon around third largest dwarf planet
    May 18, 2017

    With this discovery, most of the known dwarf planets in the Kuiper Belt larger than 600 miles across have companions. These bodies provide insight into how moons formed in the young solar system.

    Read more at:

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    Derived long ago:
    JEV = +3V-5E+2J
    SEV = -3V+5E-2S
    UEV = -3V+5E-2U
    NEV = -3V+5E-2N
    Compare & contrast, noting symmetry.

    Apply 1 of Polya’s simple problem-solving strategies: Use symmetry.

    = 2(-3V+5E-J-U) = UEV – JEV = W

    = 2(+S-N) = NEV – SEV = X

    W+X = 2(-3V+5E-J+S-U-N) = ( UEV + NEV ) – ( JEV + SEV )
    (W+X)/2 = -3V+5E-J+S-U-N

    = 2(-3V+5E-J-N) = NEV – JEV = B

    = 2(+S-U) = UEV – SEV = H

    B+H = 2(-3V+5E-J+S-U-N) = ( UEV + NEV ) – ( JEV + SEV )
    (B+H)/2 = -3V+5E-J+S-U-N

    sum = W+X = B+H
    mean = (W+X)/2 = (B+H)/2
    = -3V+5E-J+S-U-N
    = -3V+5E-2J+J+S-U-N
    = (-3V+5E-2J)+(J+S)-(U+N)
    = –JEV+(J+S)-(U+N)
    = –(Φ/φ)(J+S)+(J+S)-(U+N)
    = (1-(Φ/φ))(J+S)-(U+N)
    = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)

    Simple problem solved simply.


    Make sure you understand.

  14. tallbloke says:

    Paul, this looks neat and complete. I think I’ll print it out in big font and put it on the wall to mull over. 🙂

  15. oldbrew says:

    Titan: ‘shifts in the global shell could potentially help explain how Titan gets its methane. The atmosphere is full of it, so it must be constantly replenished somehow – the method for this replenishment remains one of Titan’s biggest mysteries.’

    Study: Global drainage patterns and the origins of topographic relief on Earth, Mars, and Titan
    – – –
    ‘it must be constantly replenished somehow’ – raises questions about Earth’s supply of methane.

  16. oldbrew says:

    Wind turbines on steroids in Liverpool bay – ‘Windfarm features largest turbines deployed anywhere in the world’

    ‘The blades, which were designed and manufactured on the Isle of Wight, are 80 metres long and weigh 35 tonnes a piece.’
    – – –
    Next stop Guernsey?

    Offshore wind viable off Guernsey

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    harmonic of 5.99698115078654 nearest 0.500023884152113 is
    5.99698115078654 / 12 = 0.499748429232212

    (0.499748429)*(0.500023884) / (0.499748429 – 0.500023884) = 907.1762115
    1 / ( 12(D-A)-2L ) = 907.1762115 trop

    Note that it’s independent of Y = lunar synodic month frequency.

    1 / ( 100 ( 12(D-A)-2L ) ) = 9.071762115 trop

    1 / ( 2( -JEV+(J+S)-(U+N) ) ) = 9.071725582 side = 9.07207763 trop
    1 / ( 2 ( Φ(J+S)-(U+N) ) ) = 9.071449157 side = 9.071801194 trop

    100 ( 12(D-A)-2L ) = 2( -JEV+(J+S)-(U+N) ) = 2 ( Φ(J+S)-(U+N) )

    Also note:

    1 / ( (D-A/2)-(Y/2+T/2) ) = 9.071307179 trop
    (8.847542139)*(9.306684483) / ( (8.847542139 + 9.306684483) / 2 ) = 9.071307179 trop

    Note that this quantity based on LAC & LNC depends on Y.

    (D-A/2)-(Y/2+T/2) ~= 100 ( 12(D-A)-2L ) = 2( -JEV+(J+S)-(U+N) ) = 2 ( Φ(J+S)-(U+N) )

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    harmonic of 5.99698115078654 nearest 1 is
    5.99698115078654 / 6 = 0.999496858464424

    (0.999496858)*(1) / (0.999496858 – 1) = 1986.512319 trop

    1 / ( 6(D-A)-T ) = 1986.512319 trop
    1 / ( 100 ( 6(D-A)-T ) ) = 19.86512319 trop

    1 / (J-S) = 19.86503587 side = 19.86580677 trop
    (11.862615)*(29.447498) / (11.862615 – 29.447498) = 19.86503587 side = 19.86580677 trop

    100 ( 6(D-A)-T ) = J-S

  19. oldbrew says:

    Fracking: Drilling to require the same planning permission as wall, says Tory manifesto

    But…’Health and safety on site and environmental protection of air and water from drilling operations and drilling companies will still have to seek clearance from a new shale gas agency before they can get going with even exploratory drilling.’

  20. Paul Vaughan says:

    – –
    harmonic of 5.99869948987322 nearest 1.00004776830423 is
    5.99869948987322 / 6 = 0.999783248312204

    (0.999783248)*(1.000047768) / (0.999783248 – 1.000047768) = 3779.793726
    – –
    harmonic of 5.99869948987322 nearest 1 is
    5.99869948987322 / 6 = 0.999783248312204

    (0.999783248)*(1) / (0.999783248 – 1) = 4612.574225
    – –
    ( 6(D-A)-6(T-L)-L ) – ( 6(D-A)-6(T-L)-T ) = T-L
    (4612.574225)*(3779.793726) / (4612.574225 – 3779.793726) = 20935.3835 trop
    – –

    The root of this long aliasing loop:

    1 / (T-L) = 20935.3835 trop
    (365.242189)*(365.259636) / (365.242189 – 365.259636) = 7646485.299 days = 20935.3835 trop

    That’s how long it takes the tropical year to lap the anomalistic year.
    This is something fundamentally simple.

    1 / ( 100 (T-L) ) = 209.353835 trop

    1 / ( Φ(J+S)-(U+N)-(J-S) ) = 209.3538051 side = 209.3619296 trop
    (18.14345116)*(19.86503587) / (18.14345116 – 19.86503587) = 209.3538051 side = 209.3619296 trop

    100(T-L) = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)-(J-S)

    harmonic of 5.99698115078654 nearest 1.00004776830423 is
    5.99698115078654 / 6 = 0.999496858464424

    (0.999496858)*(1.000047768) / (0.999496858 – 1.000047768) = 1814.352423 trop
    1 / ( 6(D-A)-L ) = 1814.352423 trop

    1 / ( Φ(J+S)-(U+N) ) = 18.14345116 side = 18.14415526 trop
    (55.6462723)*(13.68233104) / (55.6462723 – 13.68233104) = 18.14345116 side = 18.14415526

    100 ( 6(D-A)-L ) = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)

    What we’re seeing is a simple 100:1 relation of anomalistic and tropical year aliasing of:

    (27.212221)*(27.55455) / (27.212221 – 27.55455) = 2190.350523 days = 5.996981151 trop

    It’s worthwhile to again note the 1500 & 2300 year cycles in this frame:

    harmonic of 5.99869948987323 nearest 0.5 is 5.99869948987323 / 12 = 0.499891624156103
    (0.499891624)*(0.5) / (0.499891624 – 0.5) = 2306.287112 trop

    (2306.287112)*(907.1762115) / (2306.287112 – 907.1762115) = 1495.384536 trop

    I suggest that this 100:1 line of exploration is leading to a better conceptual understanding of spatiotemporal terrestrial hydrology that unifies Chandler Wobble (CW) and QuasiBiennial Oscillation (QBO) timescale with Milankovitch timescale.

    Quite simply:
    The Earth-Moon pair is part of the Earth-Venus couple that’s constrained by the Jovian planets.

    The solvable system of equations derived above ties directly into the Hale Core Model.

  21. oldbrew says:

    Time flies: Insect fossils in amber shed light on India’s geological history
    May 17, 2017

    A new species of fungus gnat in Indian amber closely resembles its fossil relatives from Europe, disproving the concept of a strongly isolated Indian subcontinent.
    . . .
    The most interesting finding from the discovery of these new gnat species is related to India´s plate tectonic history: Palaeognoriste orientale in Cambay amber belongs to a group that has previously been reported from slightly younger Baltic amber only.
    . . .
    Though the exact mechanisms of faunal exchange remain unclear so far, dispersal might have been facilitated by an island chain system between India and Europe, as has already been suggested for biting midges.

    Read more at:

  22. oldbrew says:

    PV – re. The root of this long aliasing loop:

    1 / (T-L) = 20935.3835 trop
    (365.242189)*(365.259636) / (365.242189 – 365.259636) = 7646485.299 days = 20935.3835 trop

    That’s how long it takes the tropical year to lap the anomalistic year.
    This is something fundamentally simple.

    – – –
    Yes, and the ratio of this to axial/equinoctial precession is 16:13

    20935.3835 trop * (16/13) = 25766.625

    Wikipedia quotes figures around 25,770 – 25,772 years

    PV’s trop figure is almost the same as mine in this model (difference ~1.8 years)…

    Why Phi? – a unified precession model

    And 16/3 * 20935.3835 trop = perihelion precession
    So 3/13 * perihelion precession = axial precession

    IOW anom. precession is the axial period of the other two precessions: 3 + 13 = 16.

    Ian Wilson: ‘precession of the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit is 11.615 arc seconds per year’
    Equinoctial precession is ~50.29 arc seconds per year.
    1296000 / (11.615 + 50.29) = 20935.304 trop. years

    PV wrote: 1 / (T-L) = 20935.3835 trop

  23. dai davies says:

    “Time flies: Insect fossils in amber shed light on India’s geological history”

    Time flies fast when you’re having fun, don’t they.

  24. oldbrew says:

    Cosmic Tusk: Hancock on the Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis since 2007

    The Tusk only wishes it could write something like this. But the content and timeline of our subject is so damn convoluted and confusing that, even with a front row seat, yours truly has failed to write down, in a single narrative, all the papers and rebuttals, charges and counter-charges, requiems and refutations since Mexico. Graham thankfully had the patience for the tedium and recounts our tumultuous decade quite brilliantly.

  25. oldbrew says:

    Dropping The Hammer On Comey: Trump Drains the Denizens of the Swamp

    Posted on May 20, 2017
    by Lisa Frank

    There are very few crime/mystery novels that approach this true story for compelling drama, intrigue and brinkmanship (with the nation in the balance).

    Worth a look.

  26. oldmanK says:

    From: oldbrew says: May 22, 2017 at 9:47 am and link.

    I was interested mainly in the piece on Plato. It is worth noting that of all that is said on Plato’s story in the Timaeus, no one ever takes up debate on the clear reason – a root cause – that Plato gives for the periodic destructions. Plato says “Now this has the form of a myth, but really signifies a declination of the bodies moving in the heavens around the earth—“. Note that the Earth’s obliquity has been measured and considered fixed millennia before Stockwell, and later Newcomb’s calculations. Perhaps Hancock should study GF Dodwell carefully.

  27. Paul Vaughan says:

    3rd eye: step-back for mathematically generalized perspective.
    2 problems solved with
    1 easy strike.

    Polya problem solving strategy:
    Use symmetry.

    Spin the outer rectangle on the unit circle.
    It will intersect coordinate axes between 1 & √(2/1).

    Spin the inner rectangle in the unit circle.
    It will intersect coordinate axes between 1 & √(1/2).

    Figure 5 from Simplified EOFs

    9.07√(2/1) = 12.8
    9.07√(1/2) = 6.4

    Sharp corners & smooth edges spin simplicity of inner-outer circle-square reciprocal symmetry.


    Simpler than you think.

  28. Paul Vaughan says:

    100:1 Attractor Diagnosis

    1 / ( 12(D-A)-2L ) = 907.1762115 trop
    1 / ( 100 ( 12(D-A)-2L ) ) = 9.071762115 trop
    1 / ( 2 ( [(J+S)-JEV]-(U+N) ) ) = 9.071449157 side = 9.071801194 trop
    1 / ( 2 ( [((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2]-(U+N) ) = 9.071811005 side = 9.072163056 trop
    1 / ( 2 ( [φJEV]-(U+N) ) ) = 9.072172882 side = 9.072524947 trop
    1 / ( 2 ( [Φ(J+S)]-(U+N) ) ) = 9.071725582 side = 9.07207763 trop

    100 ( 12(D-A)-2L ) = 2 ( Φ(J+S)-(U+N) )
    100 ( 6(D-A)-L ) = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)
    _ _ _

    1 / ( (D-A/2)-(Y/2+T/2) ) = 9.071307179 trop
    100 ( 12(D-A)-2L ) = 2 ( Φ(J+S)-(U+N) ) ~= (D-A/2)-(Y/2+T/2)
    _ _ _

    1 / ( 6(D-A)-L ) = 1814.352423 trop
    1 / ( 100 ( 6(D-A)-L ) ) = 18.14352423 trop
    1 / ( [(J+S)-JEV]-(U+N) ) = 18.14289831 side = 18.14360239 trop
    1 / ( [((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2]-(U+N) ) = 18.14362201 side = 18.14432611 trop
    1 / ( [φJEV]-(U+N) ) = 18.14434576 side = 18.14504989 trop
    1 / ( [Φ(J+S)]-(U+N) ) = 18.14345116 side = 18.14415526 trop

    100 ( 6(D-A)-L ) = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)
    _ _ _

    1 / ( 6(D-A)-T ) = 1986.512319 trop
    1 / ( 100 ( 6(D-A)-T ) ) = 19.86512319 trop
    1 / (J-S) = 19.86503587 side = 19.86580677 trop

    100 ( 6(D-A)-T ) = J-S
    _ _ _

    ( 6(D-A)-6(T-L)-L ) – ( 6(D-A)-6(T-L)-T ) = T-L
    ( 100 ( 6(D-A)-L ) ) – (100 ( 6(D-A)-T ) ) = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)-(J-S)
    100(T-L) = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)-(J-S)
    _ _ _

    1 / (T-L) = 20935.3835 trop
    1 / ( 100 (T-L) ) = 209.353835 trop
    1 / ( [(J+S)-JEV]-(U+N)-(J-S) ) = 209.2802201 side = 209.2883417 trop
    1 / ( [((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2]-(U+N)-(J-S) ) = 209.3765546 side = 209.3846799 trop
    1 / ( [φJEV]-(U+N)-(J-S) ) = 209.4729778 side = 209.4811069 trop
    1 / ( [Φ(J+S)]-(U+N)-(J-S) ) = 209.3538051 side = 209.3619296 trop

    100(T-L) = Φ(J+S)-(U+N)-(J-S)
    _ _ _

    Radial Square Product of Bilateral and Pentagonal Symmetry:

    1 / ( 100(T-L)+(U+N)+(J+S) ) = 13.68229647 side = 13.68282744 trop
    1 / ( [(J+S)-JEV] ) = 13.68201664 side = 13.6825476 trop
    1 / ( [((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2] ) = 13.6824282 side = 13.68295918 trop
    1 / ( [φJEV] ) = 13.68283979 side = 13.68337078 trop
    1 / ( [Φ(J+S)] ) = 13.68233104 side = 13.68286201 trop

    Attractor ID = Hale Core

    period = 13.68 years:
    φ / (J+S) = Φ / JEV = 1 / ( (J+S)-JEV ) = 2 / ((J+S)+ΦJEV) = 1 / ( 100(T-L)+(U+N)+(J-S) )

    frequency = 1 / 13.68 years:
    Φ(J+S) = φJEV = (J+S)-JEV = ((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2 = 100(T-L)+(U+N)+(J-S)

    Diagnostic Parameters

    Global Attractor

    Inner Attractor

    Inner Attractor Bound

    Inner Attractor-Bound Mid-Point

    Local Attractor

    This diagnosis can be rewritten in matrix form.
    _ _ _

    T = tropical year frequency
    L = anomalistic year frequency
    _ _ _

    XEV derivation for X={J,S,U,N}

    harmonic of
    (V-X) – (E-X)
    (V-X) + (E-X)
    is 4th for all X

    Polarity = Sign(
    4[(V-X) + (E-X)]
    – [(V-X) – (E-X)]

    JEV has oppostive polarity to SEV, UEV, & NEV.
    JEV = 4[(V-J)-(E-J)]-[(V-J)+(E-J)] = 4[V-E]-[V+E-2J] = +3V-5E+2J

    For Z={S,U,N}
    ZEV = [(V-Z)+(E-Z)]-4[(V-Z)-(E-Z)] = [V+E-2Z]-4[V-E] = -3V+5E-2Z

  29. oldbrew says:

    Graham Hancock: Why Science Should Cherish Its Rebels – The Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis Is Anything But Dead

    In this article, Graham Hancock shows how scientists consistently suppress and marginalise new knowledge that conflicts with established positions and argues that a paradigm shift is underway – a shift that will require us to reconsider everything we’ve been taught about the peopling of the Americas and about the very origins of civilization.

    Hancock: ‘all branches of science again and again repeat the same fundamental mistakes – elevating current hypotheses to the status almost of divinely-ordained truths, coming to regard those hypotheses as unchallengeable reference frames through which reality must be viewed, and marginalising, ostracising, humiliating and seeking to destroy the professional reputations of all those who propose alternative hypotheses. None of this is new.’

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    frequency algebra review
    terrestrial year frequencies
    T = tropical
    L = anomalistic
    lunar month frequencies
    D = draconic (nodal)
    A = anomalistic
    Y = synodic


    Awareness of simple 100:1 structure arose from methodical exploration of annual & semi-annual aliasing of the lunar “6 year” cycle, which (this is important to note) is independent of Y.

    D-A is the frequency of the lunar “6 year” (actually a bit less than 6 years) cycle.
    2L is the semi-annual anomalistic year.
    Harmonic of D-A nearest 2L is 12th, so aliasing is 12(D-A)-2L.
    Harmonic of D-A nearest L is 6th, so aliasing is 6(D-A)-L.
    Harmonic of D-A nearest T is 6th, so aliasing is 6(D-A)-T.

    Astronomers strive for extreme measurement precision, but even so the aliasing is extremely sensitive to measurement error.

    Important component of attractor diagnosis to understand:
    The long aliasing loop ( 6(D-A)-6(T-L)-L ) – ( 6(D-A)-6(T-L)-T ) = T-L presents an opportunity to cancel out aliasing sensitivity related to any high-frequency D & A measurement error.

    6(D-A)-L & 6(D-A)-T are both slightly (but not much) off upscale target, but they balance in T-L aggregate. This helps sort out the order (and tightness) of the antiresonant attractor coupling hierarchy. Here we see a geometric landscape with resonance ridges and antiresonance valleys (of relative opportunity to avoid destructive resonance) consistent with both bilateral and pentagonal symmetry and square radial scaling.

    Note that (2^2)(5^2)(T-L) = ((2)(5))^2)(T-L) nails the Hale Core Attractor.

    Typo Alert:
    There’s at least 1 typo above:
    “1 / ( 100(T-L)+(U+N)+(J+S) ) = 13.68229647 side = 13.68282744 trop”
    should read
    1 / ( 100(T-L)+(U+N)+(J-S) ) = 13.68229647 side = 13.68282744 trop
    The change:
    It should be (J-S), not (J+S) in that line.

    Mainstream conceptualization of temporal volatility statistical structure in spatiotemporal settings is fundamentally wrong. Insight into a higher generality is emerging from this attractor ID exercise. Conjecture: It will be possible to geometrically prove limits of Gibbs Sampling using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.

  31. Paul Vaughan says:

    4600 & 1800 year cycles featured earlier: (far eastern utility of nothing wisdom)
    “so empty need a center-piece” — The Weeknd – “Starboy”
    Simpler than imagined mindfulness eclipses empty mindedness: Stable antiresonance by Jupiter yes, but not by Jupiter alone. Weekend day names remind that J+S & Hale contrast (13.68 year cycle) with vacuously irrational stability.

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    100:1 Attractor Loading Matrix

    J+S	J-S	JEV	U+N	T	L	D	A	Y	sidereal years	tropical years	Σ
    Φ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.68233104	13.68286201	Φ(J+S)
    0	0	φ	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.68283979	13.68337078	φJEV
    1	0	-1	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.68201664	13.6825476	(J+S)-JEV
    1/2	0	Φ/2	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.6824282	13.68295918	((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2
    0	1	0	1	100	-100	0	0	0	13.68229647	13.68282744	100(T-L)+(U+N)+(J-S)
    Φ	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	0	0	209.3538051	209.3619296	Φ(J+S)-(U+N)-(J-S)
    0	-1	φ	-1	0	0	0	0	0	209.4729778	209.4811069	φJEV-(U+N)-(J-S)
    1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	209.2802201	209.2883417	(J+S)-JEV-(U+N)-(J-S)
    1/2	-1	Φ/2	-1	0	0	0	0	0	209.3765546	209.3846799	((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2-(U+N)-(J-S)
    0	0	0	0	100	-100	0	0	0	209.3457109	209.353835	100(T-L)
    0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19.86503587	19.86580677	J-S
    0	0	0	0	-100	0	600	-600	0	19.86435231	19.86512319	100(6(D-A)-T)
    Φ	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	0	18.14345116	18.14415526	Φ(J+S)-(U+N)
    0	0	φ	-1	0	0	0	0	0	18.14434576	18.14504989	φJEV-(U+N)
    1	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	18.14289831	18.14360239	(J+S)-JEV-(U+N)
    1/2	0	Φ/2	-1	0	0	0	0	0	18.14362201	18.14432611	((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2-(U+N)
    0	0	0	0	0	-100	600	-600	0	18.14282016	18.14352423	100(6(D-A)-L)
    2Φ	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	0	9.071725582	9.07207763	2(Φ(J+S)-(U+N))
    0	0	2φ	-2	0	0	0	0	0	9.072172882	9.072524947	2(φJEV-(U+N))
    2	0	-2	-2	0	0	0	0	0	9.071449157	9.071801194	2((J+S)-JEV-(U+N))
    1	0	Φ	-2	0	0	0	0	0	9.071811005	9.072163056	(J+S)+ΦJEV-2(U+N)
    0	0	0	0	0	-200	1200	-1200	0	9.07141008	9.071762115	100(12(D-A)-2L)
    0	0	0	0	-1/2	0	1	-1/2	-1/2	9.070955161	9.071307179	(D-A/2)-(Y/2+T/2)

  33. Paul Vaughan says:


  34. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew: “oldbrew says: May 23, 2017 at 2:01 pm “—Graham Hancock: Why Science Should Cherish Its Rebels”

    I am presently part way through the Joe Rogan podcast on the subject (here: ) where at 19:00 G Hancock refers to the Mnajdra and GGantija megalithic temples. However those very two places are very different when considered from another perspective – see here: (it is something I started experimenting with – but sites in wordpress seem to conflict). There are other issues also.

    Incidentally PV here: Paul Vaughan says: May 23, 2017 at 10:35 pm has a link to a Tim Cullen post from 2013. The figure at the very beginning is very interesting. See how the dates given (between 6200bc and 2000bce) find parallels to the dates at my site here: On a larger scale it appears to me as natural cyclic ratcheting between two trip points (see here: ), at least in the last 400k yrs.

  35. oldbrew says:

    Coal only option for Poland ‘unless you want to close the economy’
    By Diarmaid Williams

  36. RoswellJohn says:

    FYI, new paper at on interval ratios for exoplanets.

    Click to access 1705.07138.pdf

    [reply] thanks, looks interesting

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    There was a telltale systematic pattern in the original errors. They were all of same sign and magnitude. That suggested measurement bias. I started going back to sources, checking and double-checking. Sure enough I found a source column labeled “sidereal” that was actually Julian. Correcting for that cut the bias in half. Now I’m going back to check ephemeris days versus solar days and whatever else. There will be lots of review. The impact is only when merging frames of reference. I saw systematic drift between 2 frames. 100:1 identified it. That’s how tight 100:1 is. You can use it as a diagnostic tool to ID bias. Years ago I asked an astronomer about conventions and the astronomer told me unless otherwise stated “year” means sidereal year. Well, using diagnostics based on 100:1 I learned the important lesson that the astronomer was wrong. It’s becoming clear that it isn’t just climate scientists who need outside help.

  38. oldbrew says:

    Can Animals Sense Earthquakes?
    Maryann Mott
    for National Geographic News
    November 11, 2003

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s a simpler example framed conventionally:
    The word equation is used in the medieval sense of reconcile a difference. The two times that differ are the apparent solar time, which directly tracks the motion of the sun, and mean solar time, which tracks a theoretical “mean” sun with noons 24 hours apart.
    Mean time follows the mean sun. Jean Meeus describes the mean sun as follows:

    “Consider a first fictitious Sun travelling along the ecliptic with a constant speed and coinciding with the true sun at the perigee and apogee (when the Earth is in perihelion and aphelion, respectively). Then consider a second fictitious Sun travelling along the celestial equator at a constant speed and coinciding with the first fictitious Sun at the equinoxes. This second fictitious sun is the mean Sun […]”

    Same thing I’m doing with this
    Φ(J+S) = φJEV = (J+S)-JEV = ((J+S)+ΦJEV)/2 = 100(T-L)+(U+N)+(J-S)
    Meeus called it “mean”. I call it attractor because in a it’s more than just a mean. It’s the balance of a multiaxial differential and there’s no need for reliance on fictitious conceptual stepping stones (teaching devices) once this is well understood.

  40. oldbrew says:

    PV: why is precession speeding up?

    The precession rate is not a constant, but is (at the moment) slowly increasing over time, as indicated by the linear (and higher order) terms in T.

  41. oldbrew says:

    Researchers discover extra layer of tectonic plates within Earth’s mantle

    Howard Lee and Hannah Devlin
    The Guardian
    Wed, 24 May 2017

  42. oldbrew says:

    Jupiter’s complex transient auroras
    May 25, 2017

    Combined observations from three spacecraft show that Jupiter’s brightest auroral features recorded to date are powered by both the volcanic moon Io and interaction with the solar wind.
    . . .
    The data showed that the energy from Io’s gas emission was somehow transferred toward Jupiter at a speed approaching 400 to 800 kilometers per second in the equatorial region of the space around Jupiter.

    Much talk of ‘energy’ and ‘power’ but no mention of electricity. Strange considering the subject is auroras.

  43. oldbrew says:

    Friends of the Earth aims for 75 per cent renewables by 2030

    Green electricity could be the “foundation of a stable and reliable energy system”

    And then they woke up…

  44. oldbrew says:

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide causing global greening making some areas warmer and some colder
    May 26, 2017 by Bob Yirka

    Read more at:

    colder-warmer-warmer-colder…let’s call the whole thing off 😉

  45. oldbrew says:

    Date: 27/05/17 CBC News

    The Canadian coast guard says it has assisted 29 vessels stuck in ice this year, compared with only three last year…the dense, heavy, tough ice is similar to what’s found in the Arctic

  46. Paul Vaughan says:

    Investigating drift between 2 reference frames I dug for a copy of Seidelmann (1992).

    Our usual link to Seidelmann’s (1992) #s:
    (if load-error: go “PHYSICAL DATA”, “Planets” via menu)

    I became mildly suspicious when I reviewed this:
    “Data updated 2001-May-22:
    Sidereal orbit period data were corrected. Previous values were taken from p.704 in reference [B] where they were incorrectly labeled as Sidereal instead of Tropical. The corrected values are derived from the mean longitude rates shown in Table 5.8.1 in reference [B].”

    The reference:
    “[B] Explanatory Supplement to the Astronomical Almanac. 1992. K. P. Seidelmann, Ed., p.706 (Table 15.8) and p.316 (Table 5.8.1), University Science Books, Mill Valley, California.”

    Frame drift was related to the “Sidereal Orbit Period (y)” listed for Earth (1.0000174) in Julian years.
    365.256363004 / 365.25 = 1.00001742095551 (from another source for comparison)

    I’m noting for future recall other quantities of comparable size:
    Julian / tropical = 365.25 / 365.242189 = 1.00002138580984
    sidereal & solar day beat: (0.99726968)*(1) / (0.99726968 – 1) = 365.257435 d = 1.00002035599161 y

    Trail-blazed here:

    Found Table 5.8.1.
    Independently derived periods from mean longitude rates.
    JPL rounded-off #s verified:


    Leave no stone unturned.

  47. oldbrew says:

    Journalistic Malpractice; Claiming Glaciers are Melting due to CO2 when there is no Warming Trend

    The New York Times and their deceitful practices make them no different from the Tobacco Companies they attacked decades ago. Maybe the New York Times should be forced to carry a consumer warning “Warning: The New York Times contains Fake News and has been proven to be hazardous to your Intelligence and Wallet.”

  48. Paul Vaughan says:

    follow-up following delay after alluding to this generalization on Ian’s lunar puzzle thread:

    Frequency Generalization


    The particular dynamical system DOES NOT MATTER when dealing with UNIVERSALITY.

  49. oldmanK says:

    Quote from oldbrew: ” Claiming Glaciers are Melting due to CO2 when there is no Warming Trend”.

    Question: How effective are the glaciers in temperature control? Ice absorbs heat to change phase thereby keeping temp constant, better than water in just several degree change.

  50. oldbrew says:

    Baffled scientists – still wrestling with gravity…

    Report: Test of general relativity could potentially generate new gravitational models
    May 29, 2017

    “It’s exciting that we can do this because we can ask a very fundamental question – how does gravity work?” said Ghez. “Einstein’s theory describes it beautifully well, but there’s lots of evidence showing the theory has holes. The mere existence of supermassive black holes tells us that our current theories of how the universe works are inadequate to explain what a black hole is.” [bold added]

    Read more at:

    Haven’t they been asking the same question for centuries already?

  51. oldbrew says:

    The geomagnetic index had a spike on the 28th but not the 27th.
    Maybe it was preceded by some unusually strong electrical effects in the atmosphere?

  52. oldbrew says:

    Using multiple proxies to determine calendar date-of-build.

    Dating events from various proxies, and comparing to calendar design changes and alterations. These indicate Earth obliquity changes between 7000bce and 2000bce. (Note: viewing angle is equinox to solstice of horizon sunrise point, at latitude 35.8 deg N).
    Calendars need to be axially aligned to equinox sunrise point on horizon. At ~5200bce and then at ~3200bce there are changes of axial orientation, always ACW, indicating major cataclysmic seismic events. [bold added]

  53. oldbrew says:

    BBC News: Air conditioning technology is getting cleaner and greener.

    But demand is growing so quickly that – even if the optimists are right about possible efficiency gains – there’ll be an eightfold increase in energy consumption by 2050.

    A study in Phoenix, Arizona, found the hot air pumped out of air conditioning units increased the city’s night-time temperature by 2C.

    Of course, that makes air conditioning units work harder, making the outside hotter still.

  54. oldmanK says:

    Someone may find this interesting:

  55. oldbrew says:

    Offshore wind turbines vulnerable to Category 5 hurricane gusts
    June 7, 2017

    The findings could be used to help wind farm developers improve design standards as well as to help stakeholders make informed decisions about the costs, benefits and risks of placing turbines in hurricane-prone areas.

    Read more at:

  56. oldbrew says:

    Old chestnut re-surfacing here…

    Could climate change shut down the Gulf Stream?
    June 7, 2017

    The bottom line is that the thermohaline circulation is a very complex system and scientists do not yet understand all the variables involved in how it functions. There is an ongoing debate about why the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has weakened and how much is due to the effects of human activity on the climate.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Hard to see ‘debate’ settling that question.

    ‘do not yet understand all the variables involved in how it functions.’ – no ‘settled science’ there.

  57. oldbrew says:

    How we managed what Einstein thought was impossible – and used his theory to weigh a star
    June 7, 2017

    …after spending a further year and a half on careful analysis of the acquired data, we were able to directly obtain the mass of Stein 2051 B from the measured deflection of the background star. Stein 2051 B turned out to be 68% the mass of the sun.
    . . .
    By the end of its mission in 2019, ESA’s Gaia satellite will have found astrometric microlensing signatures that will provide reliable mass measurements for more than a thousand bodies, turning astrometric microlensing from a most curious effect into a useful astrophysical tool.

  58. oldbrew says:

    Dong Energy has announced plans to offer frequency response from its Burbo Bank offshore windfarm, using a combination of wind power and battery storage.

    The energy provider unveiled the proposals today (7 June) at the Offshore Wind 2017 exhibition at the ExCeL in London, which will see a 2MW battery installed by the end of the year to enhance the capability of the 90MW Burbo Bank facility.

    According to the company, this will be the first time an offshore wind farm has been integrated with a battery system to deliver frequency response to the grid.
    – – –

    Wholesale power prices plunged to record lows yesterday as traders braced themselves for a glut of wind generation in the early hours of this morning (7 June).

    For the first time ever negative prices were seen in the half hour day-ahead auction after high wind output was forecast to coincide with the nightly lull in demand.

    One expert said: ‘The UK can expect to see more negative pricing this summer’

  59. oldbrew says:

    Baffled scientists: Pluto edition

    Could Pluto’s Orbital Wobbles Create Its Mysterious Glacial Crazy-Paving?
    Jun 6, 2017 by James Romero

    Strange fields of polygons seen during New Horizons’ visit to Pluto could be explained by million year variations in the dwarf planet’s orbit caused by its ice giant neighbors, says a team from Taiwan’s Institute of Earth Sciences. Their conclusion, which challenges existing explanations of bottom-up heating of the glacier from the warmer rocky core below, has however been questioned by those unsure that its orbital wobbles could produce sufficient temperature changes quickly enough to explain these unique surface features.
    . . .
    Icy grooves or channels are not uncommon in the Solar System. Jupiter’s moon Europa is crisscrossed by them, likely formed by the influence of Jupiter’s gravity. However, Europa’s are straight and randomly arranged in a jumbled mess. Pluto’s more ordered polygonal fields suggest a different mechanism. But what?

  60. oldbrew says:

    Mysterious monument in England predates Stonehenge by 800 years
    Live Science
    Thu, 08 Jun 2017

    The monument, which consists of two huge, circular enclosures — each outlined by tall, wooden posts — is about 5,300 years old, meaning the structure predates the first stones erected at nearby Stonehenge by about 800 years, the study found.
    . . .
    The new findings will be published Friday (June 9) in the journal British Archaeology.

  61. oldbrew says:

    Sun’s retrograde motion and violation of even-odd cycle rule in sunspot activity
    J. Javaraiah
    Mon Not R Astron Soc (2005) 362 (4): 1311-1318. DOI:
    Published: 01 October 2005

    ‘…one would reasonably expect that the violation of the G–O rule and the variations in the differential rotation are probably having a relationship with the Sun’s motion about the barycentre. We have investigated this in the present paper.’

    Fig. 1 [see link above – L=the Sun] shows the variations in the R, V, L and dL/dt, determined from the planetary data available for every 10 d, during the period 1600–2099. In this figure, we also show the variations in the yearly mean values of the sunspot numbers during the period 1600–2004 (bottom panel). The epochs 1632, 1811 and 1990, when the Sun’s motion about the barycentre was retrograde (i.e. when L was changed from positive to a weakly negative; Jose 1965), are indicated by the dotted vertical lines. The other two epochs of the big drops in L were at 1672 and 1851, and the expected next epoch of such a big drop in L will be at 2030. All these are indicated by the dashed vertical lines. [bold added]
    – – –
    Using Arnholm’s solar simulator [white line = solar motion path]…

  62. oldbrew says:

    Research: Lightning is driven by the Sun

    No matter where you are on middle Earth (from about 38° S to 38° N), there is a daily cycle to both the frequency and the power of lightning.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Fractal planting patterns yield optimal harvests, without central control
    June 9, 2017

    “Fractal patterns are abundant in natural systems but are relatively rare in man-made systems,” explains Thurner. These fractal patterns make the system more resilient than it would otherwise be. “The system becomes remarkably stable, again without any planning—stability is the outcome of a remarkably simple but efficient self-organized process. And it happens extremely fast. In reality, it does not even take ten years for the system to reach this state,” Thurner says. [bold added]

    Read more at:

  63. oldbrew says:

    ‘The strength of the sun’s gravity is 179 times that of the moon’s but the moon is responsible for 56% of the earth’s tidal energy while the sun claims responsibility for a mere 44% (due to the moon’s proximity but the sun’s much larger size).’

    56/44 = 14/11 = 1.272727 [recurring]

    √Φ = 1.2720196 [square root of Phi]

  64. tallbloke says:

    OB: Good spot!

  65. oldbrew says:

    TB: H/T Tim Channon for the original link (in a Talkshop post).
    – – –
    Miles Mathis has updated his paper: ‘The cause of the solar cycle’ again.

    ‘Addendum May 2, 2017: A reader just sent me a couple of diagrams confirming my analysis in this
    paper. He tracked the declination cycles of the big four planets against sunspot activity over the past
    116 years in two charts, finding an almost perfect correlation:’

    Click to access cycle.pdf

    [see the two charts at the end of the doc.]

  66. oldbrew says:

    The revolutionary redox system that produces and stores energy in the home [it says here]

  67. oldbrew says:

    Lost natural wonder in New Zealand may be found, say researchers

    Diaries give clue to location of pink and white terraces of Lake Rotomahana, previously thought destroyed in 1886
    . . .
    The eighth natural wonder of the world may have been rediscovered, 131 years after it was buried by a volcanic eruption, New Zealand researchers believe.

    In the mid-1800s, the pink and white terraces of Lake Rotomahana in the North Island attracted tourists from around the globe. The terraces – dramatic cascading pools descending into the lake’s temperate waters – were lost in an eruption of Mount Tarawera in 1886.

    Two researchers think they have pinpointed the location where the terraces may lie preserved 32-49ft (10-15 metres) below the surface, under layers of mud and ash, and said a full archaeological survey is needed to excavate the site.

  68. oldbrew says:

    Jupiter, Saturn exoplanet equivalents found in 2:1 orbit period ratio.
    – – –
    June 5 2017
    Three planets around HD 27894
    A close-in pair with a 2:1 period ratio and an eccentric Jovian planet at 5.4 AU
    . . .
    Results. We find clear evidence that HD 27894 is hosting at least three massive planets. In addition to the already known Jovian planet with a period Pb ≈ 18 days we discover a Saturn-mass planet with Pc ≈ 36 days, likely in a 2:1 mean motion resonance with the first planet, and a cold massive planet (≈ 5.3 MJup) with a period Pd ≈ 5170 days on a moderately eccentric orbit (ed = 0.39).

    Conclusions. HD 27894 is hosting a massive, eccentric giant planet orbiting around a tightly packed inner pair of massive planets likely involved in an asymmetric 2:1 mean motion resonance. HD 27894 may be an important milestone for probing planetary formation and evolution scenarios.

    Click to access 1706.00509.pdf

    NB ‘The current data allowed us to conclusively
    confirm the presence of three planets, but more data
    are needed to confirm the resonant nature of the inner planets
    and to further constrain the orbital parameters, especially of
    HD 27894 d.’

  69. oldbrew says:

    Evidence that Jupiter is the oldest planet in the solar system
    June 13, 2017

    Jupiter is the most massive planet of the solar system and its presence had an immense effect on the dynamics of the solar accretion disk. Knowing the age of Jupiter is key for understanding how the solar system evolved toward its present-day architecture. Although models predict that Jupiter formed relatively early, until now, its formation has never been dated.

    Read more at:

  70. oldbrew says:

    Earth’s atmosphere is more chemically reactive in cold climates, glacial maximums

    University of Washington
    Science Daily
    Tue, 16 May 2017

    Atmospheric scientists had believed that ozone levels rise as the temperature increases. Ozone is produced with water vapor and emissions from plants, soil bacteria and other living things. All of these go up as the temperature warms. So the authors expected to find more ozone in the warmer climates. Instead, the proportion of ozone actually increased in colder climates. When the temperature changes were small, ozone did increase with temperature, but for big temperature swings that relationship flipped, with more ozone in the cold periods. [bold added]

  71. oldbrew says:

    British and Dutch drivers to slap VW with ‘dieselgate’ lawsuit

    UK’s Harcus Sinclair and the Dutch Foundation have joined forces in what is fast morphing into a pan-European lawsuit against the German automaker.
    By Gaurav Sharma
    Updated June 13, 2017

    Nearly quarter of a million car drivers in the Netherlands and UK could be bringing what is fast morphing into a pan-European lawsuit against Volkswagen, seeking compensation from the German automaker over its “dieselgate” emissions scandal that surfaced in the US back in 2015.

  72. Paul Vaughan says:

    By Golden Means: Pareto Principle partitioning of a binomial probability space derives trivially from square integration (Pythagorean Theorem) of hypotenuse-normalized Conway Triangle bases.

  73. oldbrew says:

    Dr Benny Peiser – The Closing of The Scientific Mind

    Round-up of climate-related stories, e.g. this extract:

    In spite of decades of sustained government support at the global level, wind and solar, the modern renewables on which the future of current climate policy depend, are still only 1% of world Final Energy Consumption. What is so shocking about this figure is not that simply that it is small. What is so remarkable is the disproportion between this 1% figure and the enormous global effort and cost that has gone into its making.

  74. oldbrew says:

    “We now believe that most stars, which are quite similar to our own sun, form as binaries. I think we have the strongest evidence to date for such an assertion.”

    Read more at:

  75. tallbloke says:

    A solar companion star at the same ~0.03 light year distance and 1 solar mass would imply an orbital period of 82546 years. Not a million miles off the perihelion precession of Earth…

  76. oldbrew says:

    ‘an orbital period of 82546 years’

    Spot a similar number here…

    From the link: “Within our picture, single low-mass, sunlike stars are not primordial,” Stahler added. “They are the result of the breakup of binaries.”

    Read more at:
    Headline: New evidence that all stars are born in pairs
    June 14, 2017 by Robert Sanders

  77. dai davies says:

    I’ve put a copy of my radiative delay analysis up at Scroll down a bit for ./dai/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelay170519.pdf.

    As I said in suggestions 26, this adds further confirmation that delay of upwelling IR by radiative gasses play no significant role in heating the Earth. The abstract reads:

    It is claimed that radiative gasses (RGs, or greenhouse gasses) trap heat radiated from the Earth’s surface causing it’s temperature to rise by 33 K above the theoretical temperature with no atmosphere. The word ‘trap’ is misleading. RGs delay the radiative transmission of heat from surface to space.
    I estimate this delay and conclude that its average impact on atmospheric temperatures, the Radiative Delay Effect (RDE), is in the order of 0.3 [0.1 to 1] K. This result is then placed in the broader context of atmospheric thermodynamics where it complements recent work on the air-surface interaction. The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.

    There is a spreadsheet accompanying it. It’s quite messy because I’ve been using it as a scratchpad. I’ll get around to tidying it up sometime.


  78. oldbrew says:

    Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: ‘I am giving a public talk in London next month on the politics of the climate debate. My title is “Climate Politics as Manichean Paranoia.” It’ll be a good one.’

    Manichaean paranoia deleted from Wikipedia (2009)

  79. oldbrew says:

    The Mount Everest problem…

    Eroding Time
    Posted on June 16, 2017

  80. oldbrew says:

    “Before now, we didn’t know if all stars formed in regions that were controlled by strong magnetic fields. Using ALMA, we found our answer,” said Charles L. H. “Chat” Hull, an astronomer and NRAO Jansky Fellow at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) in Cambridge, Mass., and lead author on a paper appearing in the Astrophysical Journal Letters.

    “We can now study magnetic fields in star-forming clouds from the broadest of scales all the way down to the forming star itself. This is exciting because it may mean stars can emerge from a wider range of conditions than we once thought.”

    Read more at:
    – – –
    No magnetism without electricity.

  81. Paul Vaughan says:

    Polya Problem-Solving Strategy
    (φ/Φ)^e = 13.68278837

  82. Paul Vaughan says:

    (φ/Φ)^(e-1/2) = 8.456428271
    (φ/Φ)^(e+1/2) = 22.13921664
    porte fermi

  83. tallbloke says:

    There’s that simple symmetry again. Beautiful. But what’s the answer to why it’s in Earth years? Does it imply Earth is a major factor in solar variation?

  84. oldbrew says:

    Number of J+S in Hale cycle is 2.618~
    Number of J-S in Hale cycle is √5/2

  85. oldbrew says:

    Climate – the new American civil war?


    While Democrats have spent the better part of the previous week waving their arms in the air over a back channel with Russia, one of their faction’s leading governors is openly allying with China against the President of the United States. And the treasonous Democrat media is cheering this betrayal.

  86. oldbrew says:

    Reuters: NASA experiment to color the skies over the U.S. East Coast

    A high-flying science experiment may color the skies above the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast with bluish green and red clouds on Sunday evening, as NASA seeks to learn more about charged particles at the top of Earth’s atmosphere.

    A small rocket carrying 10 canisters of barium and other chemicals is due to lift off from Wallops Island, Virginia between 9:04 and 9:19 p.m. EDT.

    About five minutes after launch the canisters, which are about the size of soda cans, will release blue-green and red vapors that will gather into artificial clouds potentially visible from New York to North Carolina.

    The luminescent colors are due to sunlight interacting with the chemicals barium, strontium and cupric-oxide, the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration said on its website.

    Although the flight will last about eight minutes, the colorful clouds could linger for 20 minutes, depending on atmospheric conditions.

    NASA ground stations at Wallops Island and Duck, N.C., will track the clouds so scientists can learn more Earth’s ionosphere, a layer at the top of the atmosphere of charged particles that shoot out into space, creating effects including auroral displays over the planet’s polar regions.

    Scientists want to learn more about how the ionosphere interacts with other layers of the atmosphere.
    – – –
    Update: Due to high winds, NASA delayed the launch to Monday, June 19, between 9:06 and 9:21 p.m. EDT.

    NASA Wallops will host live video on Ustream, with coverage kicking off around 8:30 p.m. EDT.

  87. tallbloke says:

    Oh noes! Chemtrails!!! 🙂

  88. A C Osborn says:

    From NTZ, NOAA & NASA have admitted that the forerunner to the AGW scare, the Montreal Protocol has as yet had NO EFFECT either on Ozone levels or the Holes.
    On top of that they do not seem to understand the affect UV has on Ozone generation, blaming wind & temperatures as the cause of the changes in Ozone and Holes.
    They also say it won’t change until Chlorine levels drop below the 1990 levels, over 20 years on and it has not had any affect on Atmospheric Chlorine or Ozone.

    And yet Kofi Annan is quoted as saying that “perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol”.

  89. oldbrew says:

    New branch in family tree of exoplanets discovered
    June 19, 2017

    In essence, their research shows that our galaxy has a strong preference for two types of planets: rocky planets up to 1.75 times the size of Earth, and gas-enshrouded mini-Neptune worlds, which are from 2 to 3.5 times the size of Earth (or somewhat smaller than Neptune). Our galaxy rarely makes planets with sizes in between these two groups.
    . . .
    “In the solar system, there are no planets with sizes between Earth and Neptune,” says Erik Petigura, co-author of the study and a Hubble Postdoctoral Fellow at Caltech. “One of the great surprises from Kepler is that nearly every star has at least one planet larger than Earth but smaller than Neptune. We’d really like to know what these mysterious planets are like and why we don’t have them in our own solar system.”

    Read more at:
    – – –

    But the report also says:

    Kepler specializes in finding planets close to their stars, so the majority of these planets orbit more closely than Mercury, which circles the sun at roughly one-third of the Earth-sun distance.

    A clue possibly? Neptune for example is over 4.4 billion miles from the Sun. So far there’s not much in the way of like-for-like comparisons.


    We investigate global temperature data produced by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (CRU) and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature consortium (BEST). We first fit the 1850-2010 data with polynomials of degrees 1 to 9. A significant ~60-yr oscillation is accounted for as soon as degree 4 is reached. This oscillation is even better modeled as a broken line, more precisely a series of ~30-yr long linear segments, with slope breaks (singularities) in ~1904, ~1940, and ~1974 (±3 yr), and a possible recent occurrence at the turn of the 20th century. Oceanic indices PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) have undergone major changes (respectively of sign and slope) roughly at the same times as the temperature slope breaks. This can be interpreted with a system of oceanic non-linear coupled oscillators with abrupt mode shifts. Thus, the Earth’s climate may have entered a new mode (a new ~30-yr episode) near the turn of the 20th century: no further temperature increase, a dominantly negative PDO index and a decreasing AMO index might be expected for the next decade or two.

  91. Paul Vaughan says:

    I think TB will like this golden spatial view:

    Click to access a742003-028.pdf

  92. tallbloke says:

    Very interesting confirmation of the stability principle we have deduced here.

  93. oldbrew says:


    The Pause in Global Warming Is Real, Admits Climategate Scientist Ben Santer

    The ‘Pause’ in global warming is real and the computer models predicting dramatically increased temperatures have failed.

    This is the shocking admission of a paper published this week in Nature Geoscience. It’s shocking because the paper’s lead author is none other than Ben Santer – one of the more vociferous and energetic alarmists exposed in the Climategate emails.
    – – –
    See also – featuring the same Ben Santer – this:

    How The Recent El Nino Saved Climate Models
    Date: 13/03/17 Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor

    El Ninos can be used to make computer climate models look better than they are, for a short time at least.

  94. tallbloke says:

    Mann is a co-author too. It’s a CYA paper – Cover Your Arse. They can say, “but we told you” when the going gets tough.

  95. oldbrew says:

    Black Monday For Climatistas – GWPF
    Date: 20/06/17

    First, an article out today in Nature Geoscience ponders the problem of why observed temperatures in the troposphere are not matching up with what the climate models have predicted. The lead author, Ben Santer, is one of the leading climatistas, so this article can’t be written off as “denier” distortions. (One of the co-authors is Michael Mann.) The complete article is behind a paywall, and while it is evident that the authors have done all the necessary contortions that essentially say “our models are just a little off” so as to convey a “nothing to see here” conclusion, the abstract can hardly be reassuring because it has to concede the problem
    . . .
    Second, one of the heroes of the climate fantasists is Stanford’s Mark Jacobson, who has been arguing for some time now that the U.S. can get to 100 percent renewable electricity (wind, solar, and hydro) by the year 2050. His work is preposterous, and as I noted here once before, Jacobson is regarded as a joke by most of his Stanford colleagues. Some of them (along with heavyweight energy academics from Berkeley, MIT, and elsewhere—there are a total of 21 authors signed on) have joined a major article out today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that thoroughly rubbishes Jacobson’s fantasies
    . . .
    Translated from the politesse of formal academic writing, this means: Jacobson is full of crap.

  96. oldbrew says:

    The sun had an ‘evil twin’ called Nemesis which may have wiped out the dinosaurs, claim astronomers

    THE Sun had an evil twin called Nemesis, that put a massive rogue asteroid on a collision course with Earth.
    . . .
    “We are saying, yes, there probably was a Nemesis, a long time ago,” said co-author Steven Stahler, a UC Berkeley research astronomer.

    “We ran a series of statistical models to see if we could account for the relative populations of young single stars and binaries of all separations in the Perseus molecular cloud, and the only model that could reproduce the data was one in which all stars form initially as wide binaries.

    “These systems then either shrink or break apart within a million years.”

  97. Paul Vaughan says:


    I was exploring terms in equations from the golden harmonic oscillator paper — particularly the page with the “remarkable limit” — when out popped this:

    (φ/Φ)^e = 13.68278837

    I wasn’t even thinking about 13.68.

    It registered like an announcement from God:
    “Are you EVER on the right track buddy.”

  98. oldmanK says:

    From above: “The sun had an ‘evil twin’ called Nemesis which may have wiped out the dinosaurs, claim astronomers”. In contrast around 3200bce many established civilisations were near completely wiped out from cataclysmic events. We have enough proof for both the civilisations and the events. What is invoked here is not a rogue planet but Occam’s razor.

    OK, but it is summer and it is getting hot. 🙂 The earth can throw up ugly tantrums, without the need of any prodding.

  99. tallbloke says:

    Paul V: Knowing your liking for symmetry, it’s worth recalling that e can be represented like this:

  100. Paul Vaughan says:

    binary address of φ in Farey tree = 1010101010101010101010101010101…

  101. tallbloke says:

    Paul V: There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those who don’t. 😉

  102. oldbrew says:

    Wed Jun 21, 2017 | 6:15pm BST
    British forest pumped full of CO2 to test tree absorption

    Scientists aim to measure the forest’s capacity to capture carbon released by fossil fuel burning, and answer questions about their capacity to absorb carbon pollution long-term.

    “(Forests) happily take a bit more CO2 because that’s their main nutrient. But we don’t know how much more and whether they can do that indefinitely”, BIFoR co-director Michael Tausz told Reuters.

  103. oldbrew says:

    PV says: ‘(φ/Φ)^e = 13.68278837’

    13.68278837 / 2 = ~2.6156² or (34/13)²

  104. tallbloke says:

    OB: Nice. It seems all the interesting noble numbers are convolving into one another.

    PV says: ‘(φ/Φ)^e = 13.68278837’
    OB says: 13.68278837 / 2 = ~2.6156² or (34/13)²
    TB remembers: π ≈ 4/√φ

    Next up, Euler’s identity unmasked… 🙂

    “We are looking up ze trousers of God” – Russian scientist on seeing the first grainy images of atoms in a crystal lattice.

  105. Paul Vaughan says:

    I searched the talkshop for Farey tree (no results) because I was surprised nothing (that I recall) had ever linked me to the concept before yesterday. It’s a simple, incisive concept. Mere awareness of its structure instantly deeply simplified my conceptualization of phi and harmonics. It seems like somthing Landscheidt would have known very well given his interests. I’m intensely consumed by another track, but if anyone has time please point us to where if anywhere Landscheidt ever mentioned Farey trees and I’ll review with 20/20 hindsight.

  106. oldbrew says:

    PV – not Landscheidt, but…

    The Mandelbrot Set, the Farey Tree, and the Fibonacci Sequence
    Robert L. Devaney

    The American Mathematical Monthly
    Vol. 106, No. 4 (Apr., 1999), pp. 289-302

  107. oldbrew says:

    Scientists uncover origins of the Sun’s swirling spicules
    June 22, 2017

    The simulations indicate spicules could play a big role in energizing the sun’s atmosphere, by constantly forcing plasma out and generating so many Alfvén waves across the sun’s entire surface.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Alfvén wave

    An Alfvén wave is a wave that occurs in a plasma (or conducting fluid), resulting from the interaction of the magnetic fields and electric currents within it, causing an oscillation of the ions. Alfvén wrote in a letter to the journal Nature in 1942:

    “If a conducting liquid is placed in a constant magnetic field, every motion of the liquid gives rise to an E.M.F. which produces electric currents. Owing to the magnetic field, these currents give mechanical forces which change the state of motion of the liquid. Thus a kind of combined electromagnetic-hydrodynamic wave is produced.” [bold added]

    Alfvén waves initiated the field of magnetohydrodynamics which subsequently earned Alfvén a Nobel Prize.
    – – –
    So the Sun must contain electric currents.

  108. oldbrew says:

    UK | Fri Jun 23, 2017 | 12:30pm BST
    Deadly London tower blaze began in Hotpoint fridge freezer, police say

  109. Paul Vaughan says:

    “[…] the successive powers of φ obey the Fibonacci recurrence: φ^(n+1) = φ^n + φ^(n-1)
    This identity allows any polynomial in φ to be reduced to a linear expression.”

    Mainstream modelers:
    What are the conditions under which massive flurries of polynomial integration simply reduce?
    I suggest a reallocation of priorities: less time blindly running integrations and more attention to simple fundamentals. The computer won’t be announcing to you why simple geometry is asymptotically reducing countless-term-expressions.

  110. oldbrew says:

    ‘Emission-free chills’: Start-up propagates Nitrogen for clean power and refrigeration

    Back in 2004, academic and industry consultant Toby Peters came across inventor Peter Dearman who was touting the idea of a nitrogen-powered motor engine. When the duo met, Peters was astounded by what he saw before him.

    “[Peter] Dearman had a car running on liquid nitrogen, with the engine conjured up by an eclectic mix of parts. The fuel tank was a beer barrel, and some of the components included an old coca cola bottle. His car was doing 30 miles an hour. Having the scientific concept sussed out by Leeds University colleagues, I found it to be robust,” Peters tells IBTimes UK.
    . . .
    Simply put, demand for cooling will overtake demand for heat by 2060, and by the end of this century the demand for air conditioning alone is going to increase 33 times from where we are today. “So we thought, we ought to be turning our attention to achieving the objective of cooling in a carbon neutral fashion, rather than how much electricity or power do we need.”

    ‘demand for air conditioning alone is going to increase 33 times from where we are today’ – not based on climate models we hope 😐

  111. oldbrew says:

    Whatever it means, this sounds interesting…

    A 100-year-old physics problem has been solved
    June 22, 2017

    At EPFL, researchers challenge a fundamental law and discover that more electromagnetic energy can be stored in wave-guiding systems than previously thought. The discovery has implications in telecommunications. Working around the fundamental law, they conceived resonant and wave-guiding systems capable of storing energy over a prolonged period while keeping a broad bandwidth. Their trick was to create asymmetric resonant or wave-guiding systems using magnetic fields.

    Read more at:

    Paper: Breaking Lorentz reciprocity to overcome the time-bandwidth limit in physics and engineering

  112. oldbrew says:

    ENSO+QBO Elevator Pitch
    Posted 23/06/17

    Most of the past exposition was lengthy because the causal factors could not be easily isolated or were rationalized as random or chaotic. Yet, if we take as a premise that the behavior was governed by the same orbital factors as what governs the ocean tides, we can make quick work of an explanation.

  113. oldbrew says:

    Christopher Booker: Nice Heatwave, But June 1878 Was Hotter

    Date: 25/06/17 The Sunday Telegraph
    Our June weather last week was not even as hot as it was in 1878, a century before the great global warming scare was invented.

  114. linneamogren says:

    I’m amazed how many times the physics department at Vanderbilt assumed and imagined to make their Venusian GHE

  115. oldbrew says:

    Vanderbilt: ‘Without a magnetic field, a planet’s atmosphere is subject to the sandblasting effect of the solar wind.’

    That doesn’t explain why Venus has by far the thickest atmosphere of all the rocky planets.

  116. oldbrew says:

    Consensus enforcers versus the Trump administration
    Posted on June 24, 2017
    by Judith Curry

    Tough days on The Hill for the enforcers of the climate consensus.

  117. oldbrew says:

    Big Bang or Big Bounce?

    Scientific Consensus Up In Smoke: ‘Big Bang Theory Is Wrong, Basic Maths Is Incorrect’
    Date: 25/06/17 The Sunday Times

    Stephen Hawking’s ideas about the origins of the universe — which have long been at the centre of physics and cosmology — are wrong, says one of his closest friends.

    Professor Neil Turok, director of the Perimeter Institute in Canada, has long questioned Hawking’s vision of the Big Bang, when space, time and matter are thought to have burst into existence.

    Now he has published research suggesting that the basic maths behind Hawking’s views is incorrect and that science must rethink the origins of the universe.

  118. oldbrew says:

    Big fake news scandal re Russia at CNN

    ‘the network’s handling of this scandal in the words of a CNN insider to BuzzFeed is a “massive, massive f***-up.” ‘

  119. oldbrew says:

    Glaciers make fertilizer for the ocean

    The team found that the iron in dust and sediment that comes from glaciers is better at promoting phytoplankton growth and photosynthesis than iron found in dust from other sources. This means that glaciers may play a larger role in the carbon cycle than had been thought.

    Read more at:

  120. oldmanK says:

    Quote oldbrew’s post above ” Stephen Hawking’s ideas about the origins of the universe — which have long been at the centre of physics and cosmology — are wrong—”


  121. oldbrew says:

    “In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.” ― Terry Pratchett

  122. p.g.sharrow says:

    Is the “Big Bang Theory” exploding into the nothingness it was created from? 😉 …pg

  123. oldbrew says:

    Alternating explosions and implosions doesn’t sound entirely convincing either :/

    On the other hand, does that matter?

  124. oldbrew says:

    Cosmic Rays Increase, Solar Cycle Approaches Minimum

    Date: 26/06/17 Meteorologist Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc.

    The sun is currently featuring one lonely visible sunspot region and this relatively blank look is becoming more and more common as solar cycle 24 heads towards the next solar minimum.

    In fact, there have been 42 days in 2017 with a completely blank sun – already ten more days than all of last year – and this makes up almost one-quarter of the time for this year. Solar cycle 24 has turned out to be historically weak with the lowest number of sunspots since cycle 14 peaked more than a century ago in 1906.
    – – –
    Looks like the sun is tired after all its exertions in the 1990s 😉

  125. oldbrew says:

    Electric car problem…

    A female EV buyer of a new BAIC E160EV returned the car and received a full refund after she found the car’s performance inadequate for use. “She drove the electric car to the parking lot under her apartment, but had no way to get it back onto street level.”

    She told the China Daily reporter, “The tilted ramp has such a sharp angle that the electric car was unable to drive up to the end. The only solution was to call the tow truck.” She went on to say, “Despite being fully recharged, on every attempt it would stop in the middle as the battery output was not as strong as that of a gasoline car.”

  126. Paul Vaughan says:

    Q(√5) quadratic field integer ring unit = φ

    The regulator of a real quadratic field is the logarithm of its fundamental unit: for example, that of Q(√5) is log(√5+1)/2. This can be seen as follows. A fundamental unit is (√5+1)/2, and its images under the two embeddings into R are (√5+1)/2 and (-√5+1)/2. So the r×(r+1) matrix is [1×log|(√5+1)/2|,1×log|(-√5+1)/2|].

    In 1924 it was shown that the Riemann Hypothesis can be stated in terms of Farey sequences.

  127. oldbrew says:

    ‘And in a searing indictment on capitalist society, Charles said we can no longer afford consumerism and that the “age of convenience” was over.’

    Silly old fool.

  128. Paul Vaughan says:

    8.456428271 = φ^(2e-1)
    13.68278837 = φ^(2e)
    22.13921664 = φ^(2e+1)

  129. Paul Vaughan says:

    φ^(n+1) = φ^n + φ^(n-1)

    Let n = 2e

    22.13921664 = 13.68278837 + 8.456428271

    1 / 8.456428271 – 1 / 13.68278837 = 1 / 22.13921664
    (13.68278837)*(8.456428271) / (13.68278837 – 8.456428271) = 22.13921664

  130. oldbrew says:

    The stable retrograde orbit of the Bee-Zed asteroid explained
    June 28, 2017

    The asteroid crosses Jupiter’s path every six years, but owing to their co-orbital resonance, they never come closer than 176 million km, far enough to avoid major disturbances to the orbit of the asteroid, although Jupiter’s gravity is essential to keeping the planet and Bee-Zed in a 1:1 retrograde resonance.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    ‘they never come closer than 176 million km’ – that’s greater than the Sun-Earth distance.

    Also: “The vast majority of retrograde objects are comets. Their orbits are typically inclined as well as retrograde. The most famous, of course, is Halley’s comet, which has a retrograde orbit with an inclination of 162°, practically identical to that of 2015 BZ509[bold added]
    – – –

    Asteroids in retrograde resonance with Jupiter and Saturn [2013]
    M. H. M. Morais 1
    and F. Namouni 2

    Click to access 1308.0216.pdf

    (pre-dates Bee-Zed discovery)

  131. oldbrew says:

    PV: re. 22.14 years — see Figures 9 and 11, Stefani et al 2017.

    Click to access 1706.07638.pdf

    H/T sunspotlover

  132. tallbloke says:

    Paul, this looks potentially relevant:

    Click to access euler-phi.article.pdf

    This mentions Riemann too

    Click to access phitalk2.pdf

  133. Paul Vaughan says:

    Normally we don’t add periods.

    “22.13921664 = 13.68278837 + 8.456428271”

    Understand that this statement is true because of the quadratic integer ring.

    It’s a geometrically simple insight that enlightens beyond ignorant conventional perspective.

  134. Paul Vaughan says:

    Note well that reciprocals are on the same ring.
    1 / φ^(n+1) = φ^(-n-1)
    1 / φ^n = φ^(-n)
    1 / φ^(n-1) = φ^(-n+1)

    φ^(-n+1) = φ^(-n) + φ^(-n-1)
    1 / φ^(n-1) = [ 1 / φ^n ] + [ 1 / φ^(n+1) ]

    Note the change in the ordering of the terms with reciprocation.

    φ^(n+1) = φ^n + φ^(n-1)


    Seed a loop with any real number.

    1. Add 1.
    2. Reciprocate.

    Iterate. In the limit as the number of loops goes to infinity the sequence converges to alternation between the golden mean and its reciprocal.

    Substituting 2, 3, 4, etc. for 1 in loop step#1 generalizes to asymptotic alternation between metallic means and their reciprocals, but note well that reciprocation converges to equivalence with an integer step of 1 only for the golden mean sequence.

  135. oldbrew says:

    Study suggests mid-mantle holds as much water as Earth’s oceans
    June 8, 2017 by Bob Yirka

    A team of researchers affiliated with several institutions in Japan and Germany has found evidence that suggests the middle of Earth’s mantle holds as much water as the planet’s oceans. In their paper published on the open access site Science Advances, the group describes their theory and their experiments to try to prove them correct.

    Read more at:

  136. oldbrew says:

    Juno spacecraft to fly over Jupiter’s Great Red Spot July 10
    July 2, 2017

    Just days after celebrating its first anniversary in Jupiter orbit, NASA’s Juno spacecraft will fly directly over Jupiter’s Great Red Spot, the gas giant’s iconic, 10,000-mile-wide (16,000-kilometer-wide) storm. This will be humanity’s first up-close and personal view of the gigantic feature—a storm monitored since 1830 and possibly existing for more than 350 years.

    “Jupiter’s mysterious Great Red Spot is probably the best-known feature of Jupiter,” said Scott Bolton, principal investigator of Juno from the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. “This monumental storm has raged on the solar system’s biggest planet for centuries. Now, Juno and her cloud-penetrating science instruments will dive in to see how deep the roots of this storm go, and help us understand how this giant storm works and what makes it so special.”

    Read more at:

  137. sunspotlover says:

    We have currently a Uranus-Jupiter opposition. The sunspots seem to go in hibernation… Is there any planetary theory that states that a Uranus-Jupiter opposition = start new cycle?

  138. oldbrew says:

    ‘Is there any planetary theory that states that a Uranus-Jupiter opposition = start new cycle?’

    J-U occurs every 13.81~ years, so no. There was a Uranus-Neptune conjunction in 1993 which is more likely to be relevant.

  139. oldbrew says:

    Study examines geology of Oklahoma’s largest earthquake
    June 30, 2017

    “Our results showing a downward fault rupture are consistent with a human-induced earthquake resulting from wastewater injection, rather than a naturally caused quake,” said Fielding.

    Fielding said the research may help better manage induced seismicity. “By understanding how and where earthquakes are induced by wastewater injection, we may be able to mitigate their risk by identifying zones that should be avoided for injection,” he said.

    Read more at:

  140. oldbrew says:

    France to ban all new oil and gas exploration in renewable energy drive

    France is to stop granting licences for oil and gas exploration as part of a transition towards environmentally-friendly energy being driven by Emmanuel Macron’s government.

    Nicolas Hulot, the “ecological transition” minister, said a law would be passed in the autumn. “There will be no new exploration licences for hydrocarbons,” he told BFMTV.

    Macron is also planning a huge renovation programme for French homes to reduce energy consumption, cut carbon emissions, reduce energy poverty and create jobs.
    . . .
    “We already have two international (human rights) pacts…The idea is to create a third, for a third generation of rights – environmental rights,” said former French prime minister Laurent Fabius, who also presided over the Paris COP 21 conference on climate change.
    – – –
    Was anyone looking for oil and gas in France anyway?

  141. USteiner says:

    “Hawking attacks Trump: US president will cause ‘250 degree temperatures – like VENUS’”

    This is mind-boggling in its absurdity. Has this guy lost his marbles? Or, maybe, has he ever had them?

    Perhaps people were frozen in their view of his greatness that nobody dared to question what he has written? How else could you possibly explain the discrepancy between his supposed brilliance some years ago and today’s obtuseness?

    His recent letter on the defense of the Big Bang had already resulted in some head scratching.

  142. craigm350 says:

    @USteiner even the consensus with his statements:

  143. Chaeremon says:

    Is the Sun a Gas? The Standard Solar Model Explained; May 1, 2017 by Pierre-Marie Robitaille (Prof. Radiology):

  144. oldbrew says:

    Breaking: Fatal Courtroom Act Ruins Michael ‘Hockey Stick’ Mann

    Published on July 4, 2017

    Michael Mann, who chose to file what many consider to be a cynical SLAPP (Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation) libel suit in the British Columbia Supreme Court, Vancouver six long years ago, has astonished legal experts by refusing to comply with the court direction to hand over all his disputed graph’s data. Mann’s iconic hockey stick has been relied upon by the UN’s IPCC and western governments as crucial evidence for the science of ‘man-made global warming.’

    – – –
    It doesn’t look good for Mann’s legal action against Dr Tim Ball.

  145. oldbrew says:

    China Met Office Confirms Global Warming Hiatus
    Date: 04/07/17 Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor

    The researchers find very clear evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Their results show linear trends of 0.104 °C per decade, 0.247 °C per decade and 0.098 °C per decade for the three periods, respectively. The trends were statistically significant except for the period 1998–2014, the period that is also known as the ‘‘warming hiatus”.
    . . .
    During the recent ‘‘warming hiatus” they note that a high incoherence in global surface temperature changes can be seen, with the abnormal warming in Arctic areas neighboring the Eurasian Continent and North Atlantic Ocean and remarkable cooling in North America, East and Central Asia, northern Australia and southern Africa. The slowdown of climate warming, they say, seems to mainly occur at the low and middle latitudes of the hemispheres, and especially in the boreal cold season.

  146. Paul Vaughan says:

    Hale Core Model v2 finished
    sharpens over an order of magnitude
    variance explained = 0.9999999996
    Prediction: China will double-cross Germany.

  147. tallbloke says:

    Excellent work Paul. Will you be laying it out in a single post?

  148. Fast says:

    Perhaps this is worth its own titled post. It proves what we have all said about changes to Global temperature data.

    “On the Validity of NOAA, NASA
    and Hadley CRU Global Average
    Surface Temperature Data
    The Validity of EPA’s CO2
    Endangerment Finding
    Abridged Research Report”

    Click to access ef-gast-data-research-report-062717.pdf

    Quote from abstract
    “In this research report, the most important surface data adjustment
    issues are identified and past changes in the previously reported
    historical data are quantified. It was found that each new version of
    GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend
    over its entire history. And, it was nearly always accomplished by
    systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature
    pattern. This was true for all three entities providing GAST data
    measurement, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU. ”

    “The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data
    sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of
    their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical
    temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and
    credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to
    conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years
    have been the warmest ever –despite current claims of record setting
    Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for
    EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these
    research findings.”

  149. Paul Vaughan says:

    No TB I’ve already discarded v2 and nature’s setting the path and pace towards v3 and more.
    Like before I’ll share random insights along the path at nature’s pace.

    Pareto Principle, Pinwheel Tiling, etc. are linked universally.
    Realize complex differintegral structure from this little tip (that answers a question about structure noted before):
    13.68278837 = (2cos(2π/5))^(-2e)
    171.3525492 = (2sin(2π/5))^8

    Surely we’re not the first humans to realize…

  150. tallbloke says:

    Paul, I think that due to the unconventional route by which we’ve arrived at this point, we probably ARE the first humans to realise certain things about solar system integration.

    OB has discovered another humdinger we’ll post about in a fortnight or so when we’re both back from our various travels.

  151. Paul Vaughan says:

    Recommendations to help peacefully correct the major western fault:
    1. Americans immediately put math education before political infighting.
    2. The EU take a more naturally (as opposed to the observed artificially) principled approach to stability. (The artificial approach to stability is naively unsustainable in the very long run.)

    The pyramids are a material illustration of stability.

  152. dai davies says:


    So business as usual for another generation of researchers.

    In their conclusion:
    “… the system that generates noise is the same system that responds to the radiative forcing …”
    That bit sounds plausible.

    “As the observation period extends, the radiation budget change might emerge, which can then be used directly to constrain climate models. Earth radation budget observations are therefore indispensable especially when [if?] the Earth is changing due to radiative forcing.” [my emphasis]
    Admitting that models are not presently constrained by reality? Plus send more money.


  153. Dai – it’s shocking how the “proof” of a skeptic view is only to be found long after the proof or failure of the warmist view is in the bag or long forgetten.

    I don’t believe the time required. If it really takes that long, it’s a waste of effort. Do something else. But we’re doing it anyway.

    Warmist proofs are is so difficult. The antiCAGW position discussed here has, in my view, been weaseled down to avoid professional suicide. They already know the IPCC models have a major problem that they want to be involved in solving. And their backers know it, too. But politically they have to keep a very low profile right now

  154. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 28 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

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