Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 31

    [for viewing only please]

  2. oldbrew says:

    From Erl Happ: Confirmation
    Posted on February 17, 2018

    Review of this …
    Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations
    Original research article
    Pages 9-14
    N.A. Kilifarska

    From the abstract: A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.

  3. oldbrew says:

    XMM-Newton spies first clear X-ray flares from massive stellar lighthouse
    February 27, 2018, European Space Agency

    “We observed the star with XMM-Newton for almost 40 hours and found something even more unexpected,” says Ignazio Pillitteri of the INAF–Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo, Italy, and leader of the research team.

    “Rather than a smooth, steady emission, the X-rays pulsed periodically outwards from Rho Ophiuchi A, varying over a period of roughly 1.2 days as the star rotated – like an X-ray lighthouse! This is quite a new phenomenon in stars bigger than the sun.”

    Rho Ophiuchi A is far hotter and more massive than our parent star. It remains unknown how X-rays are generated in such stellar heavyweights; one possibility is a strong intrinsic magnetism, which would be observable via signs of surface magnetism. However, how such a magnetic field would come to be – and how it would be linked to any X-ray emission – remains unclear.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    No magnetism without electricity.

  4. oldbrew says:

    A fluke breakthrough could be the missing link for an electric car age

    Soft contact lens technology could link renewables and the grid and make electric cars better

    In the 1970s, Dr Donald Highgate found a way to make contact lenses more comfortable. With colleagues at the University of Surrey, he developed a transparent, flexible polymer that held water like a sponge.

    Now, the same technology has spawned a new supercapacitor material that could accelerate the adoption of electric cars, and solve one of the biggest problems facing renewables.

    Instead of storing energy in chemical form like a battery, supercapacitors hold it in an electrical field, like static collecting on a balloon.

  5. oldbrew says:

    An Archaeologist Says He’s Figured Out The Secret of The Pyramids’ Peculiar Alignment
    How was this possible 4,500 years ago?

    For centuries, the pyramids of Giza have puzzled researchers – not just their mysterious voids and hidden chambers, but exactly how ancient Egyptians built such impressive structures without modern technology.

    One of the most confounding issues is how the structures became so perfectly aligned.

  6. sunspotlover says:

    Can you predict earthquakes?
    No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. An earthquake prediction must define 3 elements: 1) the date and time, 2) the location, and 3) the magnitude.

    What if 1) and 3) can be calculated?

    I ask this question because I published a prediction for March 3-4…

  7. oldbrew says:

    Re. recent cold weather, Lubos Motl writes from the Czech Republic:
    There’s clearly nothing dangerous about a world that is 3 °C warmer. In the morning, we would have –11 °C instead of –14 °C which we actually had – it would still be chilly.

  8. oldbrew says:

    Trump Shreds Media, Democrats — Even Himself — At Ritzy DC Soiree

    On how to reduce global warming: “We’re going to reduce the carbon footprint when we travel by shrinking the press pool so we only have room for Sean Hannity, Lou Dobbs, and Judge Jeanine.”

    Trump closed by saying: “I just want to say this, this is one of the best times I’ve had with the media — this might be the most fun I’ve had since watching your faces on election night.”

  9. oldbrew says:

    @ sunspotlover

    PG prediction: We expect a 6.0M plus earthquake on March 3

    There was a 6.0 in Papua New Guinea about 5 hours ago.

    PG: A 7.5Mw+is possible around noon on March 4. If the quake is delayed, the magnitude will increase till

    No 7.5+ so far.
    – – –
    Re Saturn-Chiron-Uranus there’s a good conjunction match here:
    77 S = 45C = 27 U
    This gives 50 S-U = 32 S-C = 18 U-C
    Divide by 2:
    25 S-U = 16 S-C = 9 U-C
    5² S-U = 4² S-C = 3² U-C

  10. oldbrew says:

    Issue Date: March 5, 2018
    Why efforts to use green fuels sometimes run afoul

    Some microbes thrive on biofuels and can contaminate fuel equipment and clog engines

    Private motorists have little to worry about because they tend to use and replace small quantities of fuel frequently. But for airlines and other organizations that store enormous quantities of fuel, contamination could be a problem. For the U.S. Air Force, which has a mandate to rely increasingly on biobased fuels, extreme caution is in order.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Massive astrophysical objects governed by subatomic equation
    March 5, 2018, California Institute of Technology

    Propagation of waves through an astrophysical disk can be understood using Schrödinger’s equation — a cornerstone of quantum mechanics.

    Read more at:

  12. oldbrew says:

    Scientists crack 70-year-old mystery of how magnetic waves heat the sun
    March 6, 2018, Queen’s University Belfast

    Dr. David Jess from the School of Mathematics and Physics at Queen’s University Belfast explains: “For a long time scientists across the globe have predicted that Alfvén waves travel upwards from the solar surface to break in the higher layers, releasing enormous amounts of energy in the form of heat. Over the last decade scientists have been able to prove that the waves exist but until now there was no direct evidence that they had the capability to convert their movement into heat.

    “At Queen’s, we have now led a team to detect and pinpoint the heat produced by Alfvén waves in a sunspot. This theory was predicted some 75 years ago but we now have the proof for the very first time. Our research opens up a new window to understanding how this phenomenon could potentially work in other areas such as energy reactors and medical devices.”

    Read more at:

  13. A C Osborn says:

    oldbrew, that sounds interesting, magnetic directly to heat.
    I must admit I have never heard of Alfvén waves.

    [reply] Alfvén won a Nobel prize for finding them (broadly speaking)

  14. oldbrew says:

    Nuclear fusion on brink of being realised, say MIT scientists
    Carbon-free fusion power could be ‘on the grid in 15 years’

    The promise of fusion is huge: it represents a zero-carbon, combustion-free source of energy. The problem is that until now every fusion experiment has operated on an energy deficit, making it useless as a form of electricity generation. Decades of disappointment in the field has led to the joke that fusion is the energy of the future – and always will be.

    The just-over-the-horizon timeframe normally cited is 30 years, but the MIT team believe they can halve this by using new superconducting materials to produce ultra-powerful magnets, one of the main components of a fusion reactor.

    Prof Howard Wilson, a plasma physicist at York University who works on different fusion projects, said: “The exciting part of this is the high-field magnets.”
    – – –
    Seeing is believing 😐

  15. oldbrew says:

    Bob Weber writes:
    The sun’s changing magnetic field is wholly responsible for weather and climate change. The ocean warms or cools at decadal scales depending on the amount of TSI energy received, at the sun’s magnetic activity level expressed via solar indices: 94 v2 SSN, 120 sfu F10.7cm flux, and at SORCE TSI of 1361.25 W/m^2, indices which are controlled by the sun’s magnetic field evolution.

    CO2 beyond human emissions is a by product of TSI ocean warming and cooling, and accumulates in the atmosphere as heat accumulates in the ocean, and is a negligible contributor to our solar warmed earth. CO2 emissions are not a real climate issue. It’s phony. Call me a ‘denier’ – do I give a rip – I’ll call you a solar denier!

    The sun and only the sun caused the 20th century warming!

  16. oldbrew says:

    Polar bear row rumbles on…

    Amstrup & colleagues can’t refute my critique of their 2007 polar bear survival model, Part 1
    Posted on March 11, 2018

  17. tallbloke says:

    “The just-over-the-horizon timeframe normally cited is 30 years, but the MIT team believe they can halve this “

    Surely this is just normal grant-chasing timeframe acceleration. Or maybe it’s time contraction caused by the stronger gravitational fields around fusion reactors.


  18. oldbrew says:

    TB: as the saying goes…fusion is the energy source of the future – and always will be.

    Like ‘free beer tomorrow’.

  19. oldbrew says:

    Alien atmospheres recreated on Earth
    By Mary Halton
    Science reporter, BBC News
    9 March 2018

    Researchers have recreated the chemistry of atmospheres on distant planets for the first time in the lab, according to two new papers.

    They found that hazes, such as the hydrocarbons that shroud Saturn’s moon Titan, can be produced on a class of exoplanets known as super-Earths and mini-Neptunes.

    Chemical hazes and clouds can influence surface temperature and the potential for a planet to support life.

    The work can help guide future studies.

  20. oldbrew says:

    German climate policy is not compatible with the Paris climate change agreement

    Coal power in Germany is so cheap that Germany even exports 8% of its electricity production

    Tragic 😎

  21. oldbrew says:

    Baffled scientists…

    Article written: 1 Dec , 2017

    They also determined that this anomaly appears to be dependent on the ratio between the spacecraft’s radial velocity and the speed of light, and that this decreases very fast as the craft’s altitude over Jupiter’s clouds changes. These issues were not predicted by General Relativity, so there is a chance that flyby anomalies are the result of novel gravitational phenomena – or perhaps, a more conventional effect that has been overlooked.

    The flyby anomaly is a discrepancy between current scientific models and the actual increase in speed (i.e. increase in kinetic energy) observed during a planetary flyby by a spacecraft. In multiple cases, spacecraft have been observed to gain greater speed than scientists have predicted and, as yet, no convincing explanation has been found.

  22. oldbrew says:

    Painting a clear picture of how nitrogen oxides are formed
    March 12, 2018

    “If you can run your engine at a lower temperature, you can avoid the formation of much of the NOx”

  23. oldbrew says:

    This bit of sea ice forgot to ‘rapidly disappear’…

    American scientists rescued from icebound Antarctic island
    Mar 11, 2018

    The four U.S. scientists and a support staff member conducting research on Antarctica’s Joinville Island were airlifted by helicopter Sunday from an icebreaker ship dispatched by Argentina, said the National Science Foundation, which funds and manages the Antarctic program.
    – – –
    – – –
    BBC News: The Argentine navy has rescued four US scientists and a contractor from an Antarctic camp after the US icebreaker due to pick them up could not reach them because of thick sea-ice. [bold added]

  24. oldbrew says:

    Another setback for dark matter theory…

    New study suggests galactic bulge emissions not due to dark matter
    March 13, 2018

  25. p.g.sharrow says:

    Mater creates a stress in the fabric of space, or Aether. This stress is manifest as mass/inertia and gravity. The apparent excess mass or dark mater/energy is the result of this overall stress in the area. Lensing of energy is another result of this stress caused by galactic amounts of Mater in a concentrated area, a Giant bubble of stress caused by the charge of Mater that is less then the charge of deep space. There is not nothing in space. Space is packed solid full of charge in chaos. EMF is organization that travels in the charge chaos as if it were in a perfect elastic…pg

  26. oldbrew says:

    Citizen Scientists Discover New Feature of the Aurora Borealis

    It wasn’t scientists who discovered the thin, purple, east-to-west traveling glow in the northern night sky. It was people with cameras and a nerdy passion for auroras.

    Researchers today gave an official proposal to name this structure first observed by citizen scientists: a Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement (STEVE), along with an idea behind STEVE’s cause.

  27. oldbrew says:

    Another futile attempt to frame Earth’s climate as a one-parameter system.

    Climate sensitivity—reducing the uncertainty of uncertainty
    March 16, 2018

  28. oldbrew says:

    Less snow = global warming
    More snow = climate change

    Climate activists predict both outcomes — more snow, less snow — so they are never wrong

    Alarmists Resurrect Theory That Global Warming Is Making Winters Colder

  29. oldbrew says:

    The connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate – Svensmark

    Click to access SvensmarkLondon2018.pdf

    GWPF video with the Svensmarks…

  30. oldbrew says:

    NASA: How Cloud Data Is Improving Weather Forecasts
    March 7, 2018

    One reason weather models can struggle with predicting clouds and their effects is because clouds are not well sampled by conventional atmospheric observations, which come mostly from ground-based sensors, aircraft and weather balloons — none of which provide comprehensive, timely cloud data throughout the full depth of the atmosphere.

    Using imagery from GOES and other satellites, though, the algorithms developed by SatCORPS can piece together key information on clouds, such as their altitude, thickness, density and whether they’re composed of ice crystals, liquid water, or both.
    – – –
    Not from NASA…

  31. oldbrew says:

    The man who could have saved the Titanic: Medals go on sale of sailor was ditched from crew at last minute but forgot to hand in key of binocular cupboard

    David Blair was in charge of the keys to cabinet containing bird’s nest binoculars
    However he was replaced by Titanic’s owners and forgot to hand over the keys
    Without it, lookouts were unable to get to binoculars before ship struck iceberg
    A lookout who survived told an inquiry that binoculars could have saved Titanic


    PUBLISHED: 09:05, 15 March 2018 | UPDATED: 13:56, 15 March 2018

    Read more:

  32. J Martin says:

    An overlay of cosmic rays on that “not from NASA” chart would be nice. Though I think we know how that will work out.

  33. J Martin says:

    Juno. Lorentz relativity perhaps.

  34. oldbrew says:

  35. A C Osborn says:

    Oldbrew, re the Cloud Graph we have both displayed on here.
    There is another wrinkle to the story.
    JoNova has a post on rainfall controlling Temperatures in Australia, the moisture in the ground around weather stations evaporates and cools the Thermometer.

  36. oldbrew says:

    ACO – Thanks, interesting.

    At a glance there seems to be a relationship between rainfall and water vapour.

    It’s Water Vapor, Not the CO2

  37. oldbrew says:

    Climate extortion time again…

    California Sues Over Global Warming, Judge Orders Climate Lesson
    Courting Climate Comedy

    By WILLIAM M BRIGGS Published on March 10, 2018

    The descent of climate science into the surreal is about to take another comedic slide. A judge has ordered the State of California and a handful of oil companies to present to him on 21 March “a two-part tutorial on the subject of global warming and climate change.”

    Why? The cities of San Francisco and Oakland representing California are suing. They claim that British Petroleum and a group of other oil companies have created a “nuisance.” How? By not admitting, or hiding, or fibbing about what they knew about their products’ influence on global warming.
    – – –
    Those Fraudulent Climate Litigation Shakedowns
    written by Paul Driessen March 9, 2018

    Some semi-bankrupt US cities spot an opportunity, or think they do.

  38. oldbrew says:

    Are Indians worried about ’emissions’ – or do they just want to get around, like Americans, Europeans, Chinese etc.?

    Indian airports stretched as passengers reach new heights
    March 18, 2018

    India’s airports are struggling to cope with a massive surge in passenger numbers and billions of dollars must be spent to boost their capacity, analysts have warned.

    The country is witnessing a huge boom in air travel as its growing middle class increasingly takes to the skies but experts say infrastructure is failing to keep up.

    “There’s an urgent need for capacity building in major Indian airports as they are bursting at the seams and close to saturation,” Binit Somaia, South Asia Director at the Centre for Aviation (CAPA), told AFP.

    India has witnessed a six-fold increase in passenger numbers over the past decade as citizens take advantage of better connectivity and cheaper fares thanks to a host of low-cost airlines.

    Read more at:

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    Re: March 18, 2018 at 10:54 am

    Watery abuse of central limit theorem is more general than that.

    The awakening is a decade too late.

  40. sunspotlover says:

    Start sunspot cycle 25

    Almost all the researchers think cycle 25 will start late 2019… However, I checked the solar flux data in comparison with the start of sunspot cycles… Conclusion: Cycle 25 can start any moment… Can anyone check my findings? Greatly appreciated

    Lowest solar flux monthly mean strength at or in the 6 months preceding the start of each cycle

    Cycle Observed flux Adjusted flux Absolute flux Start Cycle
    Date Strength Date Strength Date Strength Date
    19 1954/ 05 65.4 1954/ 01 63.6 1954/ 01 57.2 1954/04
    20 1964/ 07 67.0 1964/ 07 69.2 1964/ 07 62.3 1964/10
    21 1976/ 07 67.6 1976/ 02 68.9 1976/ 02 62.0 1976/03
    22 1986/ 06 67.6 1986/ 09 69.5 1986/ 09 62.5 1986/09
    23 1996/10 69.2 1996/10 68.8 1996/10 61.9 1996/09
    24 2008/06 65.7 2008/12 66.9 2008/12 60.2 2018/12
    25 2018/ 01 67.8 2018/01 61.0
    Comparison between the lowest solar flux values at each cycle (Penticton data). Source: Monthly mean 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu): Penticton, B.C., Canada.

  41. oldbrew says:

    SC 5 bumped along the bottom for a while (nearly 2 years). Could SC 24 do the same?

  42. oldbrew says:

    Astronomer Announces He Has Discovered … Mars
    By Jeanna Bryner, Live Science Managing Editor | March 22, 2018

    “The object reported in ATel 11448 has been identified as Mars. Our sincere apologies for the earlier report and the inconvenience caused.”

    Ten days early? 🤣

  43. Chaeremon says:

    @oldbrew, if Venus+Jupiter are in physical resonance, then Venus behaves to Jupiter like the Trojans do. Q: when was the last time that Venus+Jupiter passed the Sun ~parallel in same direction (for observers on Earth) and ~short timeframe?

  44. oldbrew says:

    Chaeremon – around 2nd April 2017 (from solar simulator).

  45. oldbrew says:

    As if we didn’t know…

    A return to firewood is bad for forests and the climate. So reports William Schlesinger, President Emeritus of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, in an Insights article published today in the journal Science.
    . . .
    “It makes no sense to have Europeans embracing wood pellets as carbon neutral, while overlooking the carbon dioxide emitted during shipment and the losses of carbon storage from forests in the United States.”

    Read more at:

  46. Chaeremon says:

    @oldbrew, Re: around 2nd April 2017. Thank you. That month Jupiter was opposite to Sun, as observed from Earth. Imagine in your Apr 2 orbital view, that Jupiter is also on solar conjunction side (Venus inferior, Jupiter superior); that config I sought. I’m looking for a characteristic diff in frequency of configs occurrence.
    B.t.w. both configs recur after 13 (Fibonacci) synodic Venus, for a few times, if window of opportunity is ~½ month.

    [reply] solar simulator image:

  47. oldbrew says:

    A mysterious phenomenon dubbed Steve has been spotted by stargazers in Scotland.

    More properly described as a Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement, it was seen during displays of the Aurora Borealis overnight.

    When Swarm met Steve

    – – –
    Mystery of purple lights in sky solved with help from citizen scientists
    Date: March 14, 2018
    Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

    Citizen scientists, satellites and researchers solve the mystery of new purple lights in the sky. The lights, called STEVE, provide scientists insight into Earth’s magnetic field.

    Steve is an important discovery because of its location in the sub auroral zone, an area of lower latitude than where most auroras appear that is not well researched. For one, with this discovery, scientists now know there are unknown chemical processes taking place in the sub auroral zone that can lead to this light emission.

    Not ‘solved’ but they have a clue at least.

  48. Chaeremon says:

    @oldbrew (March 23, 2018 at 7:07 am), I sought one like 26. August 2015, both planets doing solar conjunction (as seen from Earth). Sorry I cannot upload astro simulator image.

  49. oldbrew says:

    Chaeremon – V & E together opposite Jupiter: mid-August 1991. Mercury there too.

    2 Jupiter orbits = 23.725~ years
    3 * 5 V-E synods = 23.98 years
    (98.9% match)

  50. oldbrew says:

    Report: Earth’s oxygen burst into production ‘like a FIREHOSE’ 2.3 billion years ago in a rapid event that transformed the planet into a habitable world

    Earth’s atmosphere experienced an oxygen upswing about 2.4-2.3bn years ago
    It’s long been a mystery whether this was gradual, or occurred rapidly
    An analysis of ancient sea salts now suggests production had a ‘major change’
    Researchers say concentrations reached at least 30 percent of what exists today

    Read more:
    – – –
    Two-billion-year-old salt rock reveals rise of oxygen in ancient atmosphere
    Date: March 22, 2018
    Source: Princeton University

  51. oldbrew says:

  52. J Martin says:

    According to Leif, SC25 has already started, as solar cycles overlap. Also, I asked him if the solar minimum will be two years long again as it was last time or perhaps even longer, and was told that it would not as the two year minimum occurred every 200 years.

    Certainly the minimum is going to be an interesting experience no matter what happens. Hopefully something that will give Leif a surprise. A longer than usual minimum would be most interesting.

  53. oldbrew says:

    JM – solar cycle 5 lasted 12.3 years and ended in 1810 = ~ 200 years ago, with what looks like a two year minimum.

  54. oldbrew says:

    Pluto’s mountains may have slid along a kilometre a day

    Research suggests a mountain range moved on top of nitrogen ice.

    Giant mountains of ice up to 5000 metres tall may have broken off the rim of Pluto’s Sputnik Planitia and “sledded” 100 kilometres into the basin on a slippery slope of nitrogen ice, scientists say.

  55. oldbrew says:

    Unintended consequences: London’s congestion charge has put diesel pollution up by one-fifth.

    Many people have switched to diesel buses and taxis.

  56. oldbrew says:

    Driver dies after Tesla Model X catches fire in California
    Mar 26, 2018

    Witness of the fatal crash says EV’s battery was ‘actively emitting flames’

    Rescue crews “still aren’t certain” how to deal with EV crashes … as battery fires can’t be extinguished with water.

    Some other Tesla fire incidents (Model S) …

  57. Ian Wilson says:


    The paper by myself and Nikolay Sidorenkov has been published at:

    Click to access a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf

    However, it still lacks the last minute corrections that we have made to the final manuscript. I am trying to get these corrections made, however, the paper is good enough to get a good idea of what we are trying to say. You are welcome to use it as a Tallbloke Workshop post if you think that it is up to standard.

    Here is the Reference, title, and abstract:

    Wilson I.R.G., and Sidorenkov N., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:1, p. 446

    A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales

    Ian Robert George Wilson* and Nikolay S Sidorenkov
    Liverpool Plains Daytime Astronomy Centre, Curlewis, Australia


    Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm, and ϕm.

  58. Ian Wilson says:


    My suggestion has gone to the spam file.

    [reply] retrieved, thanks

  59. oldbrew says:

    This site still believes in the mythical power of minor trace gases, but they now realize that what Hansen said was right – the Paris agreement was a fake.

    The Paris Climate Accords Are Looking More and More Like Fantasy
    – – –
    COP21: James Hansen, the father of climate change awareness, claims Paris agreement is a ‘fraud’

    The professor and environmental activist denounced the draft deal agreed on Saturday saying ‘there is no action, just promises’

  60. oldbrew says:

    Canada to miss 2020 climate target: audit
    March 27, 2018

    Canada will likely miss a 2020 interim carbon emissions reduction target and will need to take strong measures if it further hopes to meet its Paris agreement commitment, said an audit released Tuesday.

    Canada had set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming by 17 percent by 2020, from 2005 levels, and by 30 percent by 2030.

    But Environment Commissioner Julie Gelfand said in a report that emissions are expected to be nearly 20 percent above the target for 2020.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Few places need to fear ‘global warming’ less than Canada.

  61. Ian Wilson says:


    Here is a new paper by Stefani et al. which vindicates much of what we have been saying about the influence of the planetary tidal forces of Venus, the Earth, Jupiter (and Saturn to a lesser degree) upon the solar sunspot cycle.

    The authors talk about the Tayler-Spruit type solar model that produces an 11.07-year cycle in the solar sunspot cycle.

    They need assistance to spread their ideas to s many people as possible.

    A Tayler-Spruit model of a tidally synchronized solar dynamo

    Frank Stefani, André Giesecke, Tom Weier

    (Submitted on 23 Mar 2018 (v1), last revised 26 Mar 2018 (this version, v2))

    We discuss a solar dynamo model of the Tayler-Spruit type whose Omega-effect is traditionally produced by a solar-like differential rotation but whose alpha-effect is assumed to be periodically modulated by planetary tidal forcing. This resonance-like effect has its rationale in the tendency of the current-driven Tayler instability to undergo intrinsic helicity oscillations which, in turn, can be synchronized by periodic tidal perturbations. Specifically, we focus on the 11.07 years periodicity of the alignment of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. In the framework of a simple one-dimensional numerical model, we prove the subcritical nature of this Tayler-Spruit type dynamo. The typically emerging dynamo modes are dipolar fields, oscillating with a 22.14 years period, but also quadrupolar fields pulsating with an 11.07 years period. Transitions between these field topologies are reminiscent of the observed behaviour during the Maunder minimum. Further interesting features of the model are the emergence of mid-term fluctuations, with periods in the order of one year, and the intermittent appearance of reversed helicities in both hemispheres. With minor model modifications, the correct direction of the butterfly diagram comes out as a robust feature, too.

  62. Ian Wilson says:


    Another one of my posts has gone straight to spam.

    [reply] recovered – see above

  63. oldbrew says:

    A galaxy lacking dark matter

    This implies that the ratio Mhalo/Mstars is of order unity (and consistent with zero), a factor of at least 400 lower than expected. NGC1052–DF2 demonstrates that dark matter is not always coupled with baryonic matter on galactic scales.

    ‘a factor of at least 400 lower than expected’ – something sadly wrong with the theory?
    It could be even worse than they say since zero * 400 = zero.

  64. Chaeremon says:

    @oldbrew, 1 x Saturn = [2 moons + 3 x LNC] – [3 x LAC], with advantage for the naked eye observer (smallest unit ¼ moon):
    – the three terms are eclipse distance each, in synodic: 364 moons = 692½ – 328½;
    – the LNC term is 56 years, therefore 7 Venus with 8 years each;
    – 1 x Inex + 1½ x Saros = 56 years with 692½ synodic moons;
    – the 56 years term, -2 moons, is 740.00~ apsidal, near 3 x LNC;
    – the 364 term (Saturn) is 390.01~ apsidal, therefore 26 FMC with 14 moons each.

    Clear observation schedule for ±max declination of lunar orbital plane and of FMC, with Venus and Saturn as metronome..

  65. oldbrew says:

    Cryptocurrency boom breathes life into Alpine village
    March 29, 2018

    Up until a century ago, the southern Swiss village of Gondo was famous for gold mining, but the industry closed and Gondo fell on harder times.

    Now the miners are back and helping revitalise the tiny village on the Italian border, only they are no longer looking for gold.

    Tucked away in a windowless bunker in Gondo, 900 graphic cards bombinate incessantly as they “mine” virtual currencies.

    “It is very interesting from a historical perspective,” Gondo’s deputy president, Paul Fux, told AFP.

    “We had gold mines that were famous all over the world… Now we have a new breed of miners,” he laughed.
    . . .
    …the village only has one electrical transformer and Alpine Mining is already consuming a full third of the power it pumps out.

    Read more at:

  66. Ian Wilson says:

    I have put up a blog post at my site that summarizes the main conclusions of our new paper.

  67. oldbrew says:

    Caledonia dreaming: Think Scotland, think space

    Brexit is not all the UK’s handling right now. It’s passed a new law to help it become the first European country with its own spaceports. DW visited one of the potential sites on a stormy Scottish afternoon.
    . . .
    To begin with, a spaceport at Prestwick would focus on horizontal launches for small satellites on orbital and sub-orbital missions. Vertical rocket launches are too dangerous for Prestwick, given the local population density. Prestwick couldn’t afford to have fuel stages of a rocket landing in a residential street.

    Not to mention an international airport in the middle of the launch exclusion zone.

  68. oldbrew says:

    There Are Giant Plasma Tubes Floating Above Earth

    We’d long suspected them, but in 2015 astronomers for the first time captured visual evidence of tubular plasma structures in the inner layers of the magnetosphere surrounding the Earth.

    ‘A whole new way of looking at the sky’

  69. sunspotlover says:

    On March 21 I wrote this here:
    Start sunspot cycle 25

    Almost all the researchers think cycle 25 will start late 2019… However, I checked the solar flux data in comparison with the start of sunspot cycles… Conclusion: Cycle 25 can start any moment… Can anyone check my findings? Greatly appreciated

    Lowest solar flux monthly mean strength at or in the 6 months preceding the start of each cycle

    Cycle Observed flux Adjusted flux Absolute flux Start Cycle
    Date Strength Date Strength Date Strength Date
    19 1954/ 05 65.4 1954/ 01 63.6 1954/ 01 57.2 1954/04
    20 1964/ 07 67.0 1964/ 07 69.2 1964/ 07 62.3 1964/10
    21 1976/ 07 67.6 1976/ 02 68.9 1976/ 02 62.0 1976/03
    22 1986/ 06 67.6 1986/ 09 69.5 1986/ 09 62.5 1986/09
    23 1996/10 69.2 1996/10 68.8 1996/10 61.9 1996/09
    24 2008/06 65.7 2008/12 66.9 2008/12 60.2 2018/12
    25 2018/ 01 67.8 2018/01 61.0
    Comparison between the lowest solar flux values at each cycle (Penticton data). Source: Monthly mean 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu): Penticton, B.C., Canada.

    My paper will be published shortly (I hope, just sended it) on GSJournal

    Start Sunspot Cycle 25:
    March 2018

    Almost all researchers think that cycle 25 will start late 2019. However, while analyzing the lowest 10.7cm solar flux values, we find an imminent start for cycle 25 around March-April 2018. This is also confirmed with an algorithm that calculates a negative strength from the Sun’s polar fields during November 2017–March 2018. This publication was delayed by 3 weeks because of bad measurements from the polar fields!

    Comparison between the lowest solar flux values at each cycle. As you can see, the values for the adjusted flux differ less than 4 months from the start of a new sunspot cycle. The adjusted flux for January 2018 is lower than cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. In January 1954 the adjusted flux was lower than the observed fluxes from February, March and April, which had its minimum in May 1954, 1 month after the start of cycle 19. We have a similar situation in January 2018 with a lower adjusted flux (67.8) then the observed in February and March and only 1.2 percent above the adjusted from the start of the last cycle. In March 2018 the adjusted flux was even a bit lower than in January (67.6). Therefore cycle 25 should start March-April 2018. Source: Monthly mean 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu): Penticton, B.C., Canada.

    On March 31, 2018 Jan Alvestad wrote this on his website:
    New region 12703 [S09E61] rotated into view on March 29 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region decayed slowly but managed to produce a few flares.
    Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
    New region S5930 [N09E48] emerged with a tiny spot.

    Both active regions are reversed polarity. Given the recent very weak cycle 24 activity, there is reason to speculate that we may already be entering cycle 25.

  70. oldbrew says:

    This is all nonsense but amusing nonetheless…

    03/31/2018 09:00 am ET
    The Climate Change Hypocrisy Of Jet-Setting Academics

    Academics are probably among the people most aware of the threats posed by climate change. But might their own carbon-profligate lifestyles undermine their moral authority to demand that coal miners, Teamsters working on oil pipelines and mining-dependent Native American tribes sacrifice their own economic well-being to fight climate change?
    . . .
    Universities routinely require professors to fill out annual reports. What if these reports included a section on air travel? The university’s website could provide a carbon calculator that uses a standardized metric to assess the carbon airprint of their faculty’s professional travel.

    In 2014, our school, the University of Washington, undertook a similar exercise. UW’s analysis of travel reimbursement data suggested that its professional travel that year amounted to 136 million miles and created 23,811 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

  71. oldbrew says:

    28 MAR, 2018
    Study reveals potential stability of ocean processes despite climate change

    …they found that a more realistic representation of the marine ecosystem helped the ocean to take up and store carbon at similar rates regardless of global changes in physical properties, like temperature, salinity and circulation.

  72. oldbrew says:

    Large changes in sea ice triggered by small changes in Atlantic water temperature
    Mari F. Jensen*, Kerim H. Nisancioglu†, and Michael A. Spall‡
    Published Online: 16 March 2018

  73. oldbrew says:

    Air pressure experiment…

  74. oldbrew says:

    Rings and gaps in a developing planetary system
    April 2, 2018, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

    CfA astronomers Sean Andrews and David Wilner were members of a team of scientists who used the ALMA facility to image the dust around the young star Elias 24 with a resolution of about 28 au (one astronomical unit being about the average distance of the Earth from the Sun). The astronomers find evidence for gaps and rings and, assuming these are produced by an orbiting planet, they model the system allowing both the planet’s mass and location and the dust’s density distribution to evolve. Their best model explains the observations quite well: after about forty-four thousand years the inferred planet has a mass 70% of Jupiter’s mass and is located 61.7 au from the star.

    The result reinforces the conclusion that both gaps and rings are prevalent in a wide variety of young circumstellar disks, and signal the presence of orbiting planets.

    Read more at:

  75. oldbrew says:

    Computer simulations show Viking’s sunstone to be very accurate
    April 4, 2018 by Bob Yirka,

    According to a famous hypothesis, Viking sailors could navigate along the latitude between Norway and Greenland by means of sky polarization in cloudy weather using a sun compass and sunstone crystals. Using data measured in earlier atmospheric optical and psychophysical experiments, here we determine the success rate of this sky-polarimetric Viking navigation. Simulating 1000 voyages between Norway and Greenland with varying cloudiness at summer solstice and spring equinox, we revealed the chance with which Viking sailors could reach Greenland under the varying weather conditions of a 3-week-long journey as a function of the navigation periodicity Δt if they analysed sky polarization with calcite, cordierite or tourmaline sunstones. Examples of voyage routes are also presented. Our results show that the sky-polarimetric navigation is surprisingly successful on both days of the spring equinox and summer solstice even under cloudy conditions if the navigator determined the north direction periodically at least once in every 3 h, independently of the type of sunstone used for the analysis of sky polarization. This explains why the Vikings could rule the Atlantic Ocean for 300 years and could reach North America without a magnetic compass. Our findings suggest that it is not only the navigation periodicity in itself that is important for higher navigation success rates, but also the distribution of times when the navigation procedure carried out is as symmetrical as possible with respect to the time point of real noon.

    Read more at:

  76. oldbrew says:

    Draft ENSO forecast for 2018

    Forecast Summary:
    CFAN’s March 2018 ENSO forecast for a transition to neutral conditions over the summer. The
    forecast for December 2018 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40%
    probability of El Nino conditions. Forecasts are guided by the ECMWF seasonal forecast and
    statistical models using December-February (DJF) atmospheric precursors.

    Click to access enso-2018-forecast.pdf

  77. oldbrew says:


    I would say in reply to AEMO – “our grid got by for decades before this wasteful toy battery”. For perspective – if the average NEM demand is ~32GW and the Hornsdale Big Battery is say 100MW then that is less than 0.3% of the NEM

    You can only get out of a battery what you put into it (less 10+ per cent).

  78. oldbrew says:

    Dark matter might not be interactive after all
    April 5, 2018, Royal Astronomical Society

    Astronomers are back in the dark about what dark matter might be, after new observations showed the mysterious substance may not be interacting with forces other than gravity after all. Dr Andrew Robertson of Durham University will today (Friday 6 April) present the new results at the European Week of Astronomy and Space Science in Liverpool.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Confusion reigns – ‘the mysterious substance’…

    Send more funding 😉

  79. oldbrew says:

    Still believe an asteroid killed the dinosaurs? Think again—new theory suggests
    April 4, 2018, University at Albany

    Some experts have long believed that a massive asteroid was a primary cause of dinosaurs’ extinction some 65 million years ago, but new analysis from a University at Albany psychology professor suggests that the dinosaurs were in trouble long before the asteroid hit.

    Professor and evolutionary psychologist Gordon Gallup and his former student Michael J. Frederick, now of the University of Baltimore, assert that the emergence of toxic plants combined with dinosaurs’ inability to associate the taste of certain foods with danger had them already drastically decreasing in population when the asteroid hit.

    Read more at:

  80. oldbrew says:

    The trouble with proxy data…

    CO2 in our atmosphere started to rise significantly since the 1950s. That is about 60 years. There is no way that we could ever find a similar 60 years increase in a dataset that has a sampling rate of at least double the period under investigation. I am also not going to speculate whether similar increases happened in the past or not, a dataset with such a low resolution will not be able to prove that either way.

    Plus the fact that historical records show CO2 increases pre-dating temp increases by several centuries, which negates the ‘forcing’ argument.

  81. oldbrew says:

    Rogue British truck firms using diesel cheat devices – Channel 4 News

    — Strict rules mean every diesel lorry over 3.5 tons must have a filter on its exhaust
    — Many firms desperate to cut costs are paying £700 a time to disable the device
    — Computer hack is used though NOx is linked to 23,500 deaths a year in Britain

    Read more:

  82. oldbrew says:

    Hubble Finds a Ring

    The Einstein Ring in the image is amazingly symmetrical. [for larger image see first link]

    Here’s the caption (ESA): This image is packed full of galaxies! A keen eye can spot exquisite elliptical galaxies and spectacular spirals, seen at various orientations: edge-on with the plane of the galaxy visible, face-on to show off magnificent spiral arms, and everything in between.

  83. interzonkomizar says:

    Greetings from the Big Mango (BKK). Tue 10 Apr 12018 H.E.
    I sent the following message to several public forums and a senator to see if anybody is interested. If anybody wants the 18 links to articles i used, ask in comments.

    NOAA, NASA, and the IPCC have failed humanity, and we’re all in for a nasty surprise … Abrupt Climate Change. This is a summary and warning i put together:

    The MsM and warmist alarmists are wrong. It is the heighth of hubris and arrogance to think humans, in the space of 150 years, can change thermal cycles that are thousands of years long and have existed for millenia. The thermal mass of the land and oceans is enormous. The temperature of deep, still, parts of the ocean have barely risen one degree in 22,000 years, the last glacial max.

    My reading of the climate tea leaves says we’re already past the interglacial plateau of relatively stable climate.

    For the last three thousand years, Since 1000 BC, the end of the Minoan Warm Period, the global temperature trend has been -0.5 to -0.7 dgC per 1000 yrs, projecting full glacial of 8 dgC in another 7,000 yrs. Another clue, the obliquity dropped below 23.5 degrees around 1300 AD, the onset of the Wolf Minimum. Now the glacial cold lurking in the deep ocean, held in check by obliquity for 10,000 years, has been set free, ending the Holocene Interglacial. We are in the transition zone to glacial cold, expect Finoscandian ice sheets to start in 2000 yrs.

    However, the solar output has been declining since 1986 and this accelerated in 2009 with solar cycle 24, the lowest in over 100 yrs. Cycle 25 will also be low and the beginning of a Grand Solar Minimum, now named the Eddy Minimum. Expect a Little Ice Age lasting 40 yrs, with some winters extremely cold, some wet cool springs to kill crops, some cold summers, and more frequent and severe storms. The storminess index went from 6.5 to 14 during the LIA. This slide into cold is showing up in German weather station records where the last 30 yrs of winter (DJF) are trending -19 dgC per 1000 yrs, much faster than the slow decline to normal glacials. Zugspitze Mtn. Resort, elev 2000m, january temperature has been trending down 1 dgC per 10 yrs.

    I expect in the next ten years one billion will actually starve due to crop failures, and one billion will be eaten by stronger omnivores.

    With a border wall in place, climate refugees north of Lat 37 N will have trouble getting into Mexico, heh.

    Sandy, Minister of Future

  84. oldbrew says:

    Harnessing ‘Rashba spin-Seebeck effect’ phenomenon will enable commercial devices to turn waste heat into electricity
    April 10, 2018 by Dennis Meredith, University of California – Riverside

    Mechanical engineers at the University of California, Riverside, have reported success in using inexpensive materials to produce thermoelectric devices that transform low-level waste heat into electricity.

    Read more at:

  85. oldbrew says:

    Date: 10/04/18 Chi Ju Wu et al. (2018) Astronomy & Astrophysics 5 April 2018

    A new consistent reconstruction of the solar activity offers a more reliable estimate of the long-term evolution of the solar variability

    Extract from the conclusions:
    The reconstructed series (Figure 14) shows variability on different timescales. Grand minima of activity are of particular interest. They are visible as strong dips in the time series, in which the level of the decadal SNs sinks below 10–15. Another feature of the long-term evolution of the solar activity is a slow variability on the 6–7-millennia timescale with lows occurring in ca. 5500 BC and 1500 AD. This behavior has been interpreted by Usoskin et al. (2016) as a possible effect of climate influence on the carbon cycle, but the 14C series lies between the two diverging 10Be series on this timescale, which makes this explanation unlikely. The cause of the feature remains unknown.

  86. oldbrew says:

    Show us the data…

    Date: 12/04/18 Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller

    Scientists relied on climate models, not direct measurements, to claim in a new study man-made global warming caused a slowdown in the Gulf Stream ocean current.

  87. oldbrew says:

    Circumbinary castaways: Short-period binary systems can eject orbiting worlds
    April 12, 2018

    Making things even more difficult for circumbinary planets is what astronomers call a “region of instability” created by the competing gravitational pulls of the two stars. “There’s a region that you just can’t cross—if you go in there, you get ejected from the system,” Fleming said. “We’ve confirmed this in simulations, and many others have studied the region as well.”

    This is called the “dynamical stability limit.” It moves outward as the stellar orbit increases, enveloping planets and making their orbits unstable, and ultimately tossing them from the system.

    Another intriguing characteristic of such binary systems, detected by others over the years, Fleming said, is that planets tend to orbit just outside this stability limit, to “pile up” there. How planets get to the region is not fully known; they may form there, or they may migrate inward from further out in the system.
    . . .
    The co-authors suggest that future studies looking to find and study possibly habitable planets around short-term binary stars should focus on those with longer orbital periods than about 7.5 days.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    Anything orbiting a star in less than 7.5 days is going to be far too close (hot) to be habitable anyway?

  88. oldbrew says:

    Supertides Are Pushing All of Earth’s Continents Together Once More

    Since we are approaching the halfway point of the supercontinent cycle, we asked ourselves a question: what will happen to the tides as the next supercontinent assembles in 250 million years or so? Is it possible that there is a supertidal cycle linked to the supercontinent cycle?

    Using the computer model, we have now found that there is indeed a supertidal cycle linked to the supercontinent cycle. In fact, there are two: we are currently at the start of one “tidal maximum”, a period of time when the tides are very large.

    They will then weaken significantly, before briefly becoming large again in around 150 million years from now. After that, the tides will again drop down to less than half of the energy levels they have at present as the next supercontinent forms.

    This will happen because the basins go in and out of resonance as their shape changes. The tidal maxima are brief in geological terms and only last 20 million years or so.

    For most of the time, the tides are less energetic than they are today and, over the 400-600 million years between the formations of the two supercontinents, the tides are only large for 50 million years in total. [bold added]

  89. oldbrew says:

    Another damp squib for dark matter theory…

    Measurement of the fine-structure constant casts doubt on dark photon theories
    April 13, 2018

    A team of researchers from the University of California and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has conducted an ultra-precise measurement of the fine-structure constant, and in so doing, have found evidence that casts doubts on dark photon theory.
    . . .
    Dark photons, theory has suggested, are particles nearly identical to photons, but have mass. They may also interact with other particles. If proof could be found of their existence, it would bolster theories regarding dark matter in general, because dark matter theory suggests they would be the force carrier.

    Read more at:

    At least it’s in line with all the other attempts to unearth the alleged dark matter :/

  90. oldbrew says:

    April 14, 2018 in Featured World News
    Swiss lab says ‘BZ toxin’ used in Salisbury, not produced in Russia, was in US & UK service

    The substance used on Sergei Skripal was an agent called BZ, according to Swiss state Spiez lab, the Russian foreign minister said. The toxin was never produced in Russia, but was in service in the US, UK, and other NATO states.
    . . .
    The Swiss center mentioned by Lavrov is the Spiez Laboratory controlled by the Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection and ultimately by the country’s defense minister. The lab is also an internationally recognized center of excellence in the field of the nuclear, biological, and chemical protection and is one of the five centers permanently authorized by the OPCW.

  91. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 33 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

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