Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 37

    [for viewing only please]

    = = =

  2. oldbrew says:

    Electric Currents in Outer Space Run the Show

    A new book explores our understanding of electric currents, which are fundamental to the structure and dynamics of space plasmas.
    . . .
    Electric Currents in Geospace and Beyond, a new book just published [2018] by the American Geophysical Union, explores our most up-to-date understanding of electric currents in the solar system. Here the editors answer some questions about past and recent advances in this field.

    H/T Ned Nikolov
    – – –
    Quote from the link: It is now understood that outer space is fundamentally electrical in nature.

    Since 2008, NASA’s two TWINS spacecraft have been providing a sterescopic view of the ring current – a hula hoop of charged particles that encircles Earth [image below].

  3. sunspotlover says:

    This paper suggests a carbon footprint due to solar outbursts?

    Is there a planetary cycle for sunspot activity from 2.400 years?

    1990 Paper on 2400 yr Cycle:

  4. oldbrew says:

    Probing the Origin of a New Celestial Phenomenon

    The first statistical study of STEVE events suggests that the appearance of these narrow ribbons of light is closely correlated with violent disturbances in Earth’s magnetosphere.

    SOURCE: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

    A view of the aurora-like phenomenon dubbed STEVE (to the right of pic).

  5. oldbrew says:

    Re – sunspotlover says: March 16, 2019 at 11:58 am
    – – –
    Interview: Is climate change caused by solar inertial motion?
    24.05.2011 13:13

    An interview with Ing. Ivanka Charvátová, CSc. from the Geophysical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (Prague). The story of one politically incorrect scientific discovery.

    Later I discovered also a 2402 year long cycle of solar motion. After the lapse of this period the Sun always enters a segment, when for almost 370 years it moves continuously along the trefoil trajectory. This is when the natural conditions are stable, there is a long-term thermal maximum. The latest symmetry of the motion trefoils was around 25 AD. The NASA scientists called this 2402 yr cycle as “Charvatova Cycle”.

    Charvatova has several papers on this e.g.:

    Responses of the basic cycles of 178.7 and 2402 yr in solar–terrestrial phenomena during the Holocene
    I. Charvátová and P. Hejda
    Pattern Recogn. Phys., 2, 21-26, 2014

    Click to access prp-2-21-2014.pdf

  6. oldbrew says:

    Published: 14 February 2019
    Triggering The Birth of New Cycle’s Sunspots by Solar Tsunami


    When will a new cycle’s sunspots appear? We demonstrate a novel physical mechanism, namely, that a “solar tsunami” occurring in the Sun’s interior shear-fluid layer can trigger new cycle’s magnetic flux emergence at high latitudes, a few weeks after the cessation of old cycle’s flux emergence near the equator. This tsunami is excited at the equator when magnetic dams, created by the oppositely-directed old cycle’s toroidal field in North and South hemispheres, break due to mutual annihilation of toroidal flux there. The fluid supported by these dams rushes to the equator; the surplus of fluid cannot be contained there, so it reflects back towards high latitudes, causing a tsunami. This tsunami propagates poleward at a speed of ~300 m/s until it encounters the new cycle’s spot-producing toroidal fields in mid-latitudes, where it perturbs the fields, triggering their surface-eruption in the form of new cycle spots. A new sunspot cycle is preceded for several years by other forms of high-latitude magnetic activity, such as coronal bright points and ephemeral regions, until the tsunami causes the birth of new cycle’s spots. The next tsunami is due by 2020, portending the start of intense ‘space weather’ that can adversely impact the Earth.

    Full article:

  7. oldbrew says:

    Bercow: Ministers cannot re-submit ‘same proposition’ on Brexit

    BBC: House of Commons Speaker John Bercow rules out a new vote by MPs on UK PM Theresa May’s #Brexit deal if the motion is the same, or very similar, to last week’s defeated one
    – – –
    Bercow ‘breaking the constitution’, says minister
    BBC Political Editor tweets:

    Laura Kuenssberg

    One govt minister tells me Bercow is ‘breaking the constitution’ by stopping them putting forward another vote on the deal

    16:01 – 18 Mar 2019
    – – –
    😆 IOW they need to start another Parl’y session if they want to re-visit the vote.
    Or ‘substantially’ change the so-called deal. Going from bad to worse for UK gov.

    ITV News: Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the European Research Group, said he is “delighted” Mr Bercow had decided to follow precedent.

  8. Paul Vaughan says:

    R Eyes Comparative D-Coy

    NE Suggestions?
    Know Idea, but Eur. Not The First Two Ask:
    1. U K oughta now.
    2. NottaCPEC Can. Go.

    10 shun’s rushin’ over-C frees, knowing when not to say rights left no trace.

    Renteln faults philosophers for disregarding the heuristic and critical functions of cultural relativism. […] the use of cultural relativism in debates of rights and morals is not substantive but procedural.

    There is no reason why the relativist should be paralyzed, as critics have often asserted. But a relativist will acknowledge that the criticism is based on his own ethnocentric standards and realizes also that the condemnation may be a form of cultural imperialism.
    But culture shock is a condition one recovers from; it is not experienced as an authentic redefinition of the personality but as a testing of its tolerance
    […] if something isn’t anchored everywhere nothing can be anchored anywhere. Theory here – if that is what these earnest advices about how we must look at things if we are to be accounted as decent should be called – is more an exchange of warnings than an analytical debate. We are being offered a choice of worries.

    10 steps 2 0des Venus-Hale-Love 8….

    Bollinger’s (1952) placeholder :

    (11.86223)*(1.00004) / (11.86223 – 1.00004) = 1.09210983136918
    (11.86223)*(0.61521) / (11.86223 – 0.61521) = 0.648861877928554
    (1.09210983136918)*(0.648861877928554) / (1.09210983136918 – 0.648861877928554) = 1.59871789725333
    (1.09210983136918)*(0.648861877928554) / (1.09210983136918 + 0.648861877928554) = 0.407030414280704
    harmonic of 1.59871789725333 nearest 0.407030414280704 is 1.59871789725333 / 4 = 0.399679474313333
    (0.399679474313333)*(0.407030414280704) / (0.399679474313333 – 0.407030414280704) = 22.1307346722125

    So well isn’t IT a know-brainer price for shadowing 329 with 239? CrimeUN tie won by simply fair and reciprocal trade? No to owe wait bluff for freedom and demo-crazy? No well We R rushin’ to C! Just for F’UN: Can U figure out if IT’s an irrational bluff charge? √(Φ-φ) doubt IT! 4 now We just leave a little mystery 4 the whole-E EUCRUS …so well We can weight, innate O too!4 stablest realignment by simple calculations.

    harmonic of 1.59871789725333 nearest 1.00004 is 1.59871789725333 / 2 = 0.799358948626666
    (0.799358948626666)*(1.00004) / (0.799358948626666 – 1.00004) = 3.98339014826805
    harmonic of 3.98339014826805 nearest 1.00004 is 3.98339014826805 / 4 = 0.995847537067012
    (0.995847537067012)*(1.00004) / (0.995847537067012 – 1.00004) = 237.54231984556

    Buy fun conspearaseize Bollinger’s transiting calculation was off by just 2 in clear new pose on ID year soon ami.

    4 now We R leaving a little mystery…

  9. oldbrew says:

    Time to say goodbye to “statistically significant” and embrace uncertainty, say statisticians

    Furthermore, as we have seen in many other contexts, relying on statistical significance alone often results in weak science.
    – – –
    Significance Tests in Climate Science
    Maarten H. P. Ambaum
    Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
    Published online: 15 Nov. 2010


    A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. The significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident one can be of the “reality” of a given result. It is concluded that a significance test very rarely provides useful quantitative information. [bold added]

    Quote 1: “Data highlighted as significant may easily be less meaningful than data that were suppressed as not passing the significance threshold. Simply put, the significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident we can be of the “reality” of a given result.”

    Quote 2: “It can be argued that the significance test more accurately should be named the insignificance test, as it may be a reasonable test for insignificance; see section 2 below and Hunter (1997). Clearly, if R. A. Fisher had called his test the insignificance test, then it would probably not be used very much. Marketing plays an important role in science.”

  10. sunspotlover says:

    Concerning the large flaring sunspot 2736

    I wrote this on Watts Up With That (will he delete it because Leif will be very upset…?)

    Patrick Geryl March 4, 2019 at 12:23 am
    The reason there are no sunspots is that the strength of the polar fields is increasing and that we will have A MUCH LARGER SUNSPOT CYCLE THEN EXPECTED.
    We will know when Leif updates the UNFILTERED polar field strength.
    Last mean strength was 66, meaning cycle 25 will be 10 percent above the first part of cycle 24…

    Patrick Geryl March 4, 2019 at 12:25 am
    Explanation here:'s_Adjusted_Polar_Fields_are_in_Phase_and_not_in_Anti-Phase

    and here:

    Patrick Geryl March 4, 2019 at 12:27 am
    Explanation here:'s_Adjusted_Polar_Fields_are_in_Phase_and_not_in_Anti-Phase

    Patrick Geryl March 7, 2019 at 10:18 pm
    I am waiting for the polar field update…
    According to my findings the UNFILTERED polar field strength should have gone up in February….
    This is the reason there are no sunspots and that we will have A MUCH LARGER SUNSPOT CYCLE THEN EXPECTED.

    Last mean strength was 66, meaning cycle 25 will be already 10 percent above the first part of cycle 24…
    Explanation here:'s_Adjusted_Polar_Fields_are_in_Phase_and_not_in_Anti-Phase

    and here:

  11. sunspotlover says:

    Sunspot 2736 is from cycle 25:

    Wrote this on Watts Up With That:

    Patrick Geryl March 3, 2019 at 12:19 am
    I updated my formulas on Researchgate and stick with my prediction that solar cycle 25 started in November 2018:
    A Formula for the Start of a New Sunspot Cycle

    and here:

  12. oldbrew says:

    Still saying ‘actual solar cycle minimum (likely to be sometime between August 2018 and February 2019)’ here:

    As it’s late March now, they need to update that one way or another.
    – – –
    Two days ago, sunspot AR2736 didn’t exist. Now the rapidly-growing active region (movie) stretches across more than 100,000 km of the solar surface and contains multiple dark cores larger than Earth.
    . . .
    Most sunspots, like most magnets, have two poles + (N) and – (S). Sunspot AR2736, however, has multiple poles with areas of + and – jostling against one another. This is why the sunspot is crackling with flares.
    [bold added]

  13. oldbrew says:

    Arctic sea ice max for 2019 was same as 2007. Not exactly ‘rapid decline’ this year 😐

    Max = March, Min = September (as a rule).

  14. oldmanK says:

    On a different tack. See

    Herodotus (alias the ‘father of lies’ ) is being proved more truthful than his many detractors. Particularly for this site, his words about “the sun changing its place of rising and setting”. That has serious implications on the present ‘climate mania’.

  15. oldbrew says:

    Jupiter’s unknown journey revealed
    Date: March 22, 2019
    Source: Lund University

    The giant planet Jupiter was formed four times further from the sun than its current orbit, and migrated inwards in the solar system over a period of 700,000 years. Researchers found proof of this incredible journey thanks to a group of asteroids close to Jupiter.

    Quote 1: There are approximately 50 per cent more Trojans in front of Jupiter than behind it. It is this asymmetry that became the key to the researchers’ understanding of Jupiter’s migration. [note – 3:2 ratio]

    Quote 2: Thanks to extensive computer simulations, the researchers have calculated that the current asymmetry could only have occurred if Jupiter was formed four times further out in the solar system and subsequently migrated to its current position. During its journey towards the sun, Jupiter’s own gravity then drew in more Trojans in front of it than behind it.
    – – –
    Doesn’t quite explain the 3:2 ratio.

  16. oldbrew says:

    With or without icebreaker, Qajaq can’t get through, says coast guard

    ‘We’re battling ice conditions that we haven’t seen in 30 years,’ says Minister Steve Crocker
    CBC News · Posted: Mar 15, 2019

    The new ferry in the Strait of Belle Isle doesn’t have the same horsepower as the old Apollo, so even with an ice breaker, it’s risky to travel in this year’s ice conditions, says the Canadian Coast Guard.

    But the province says this year’s severe ice conditions are unprecedented, and even an icebreaker got stuck in the thick ice. [bold added]

  17. oldbrew says:

    ‘Nobody knows’ time – or, where does electricity come from?

    What ionized the universe?
    March 25, 2019, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

    The sparsely distributed hot gas that exists in the space between galaxies, the intergalactic medium, is ionized. The question is, how?
    – – –
    Ionization or ionisation, is the process by which an atom or a molecule acquires a negative or positive charge by gaining or losing electrons, often in conjunction with other chemical changes.[1] The resulting electrically charged atom or molecule is called an ion. [bold added]

  18. oldbrew says:

    EIA: Reciprocating gas-fired engines playing growing role in U.S. grid

    The nation’s capacity in natural gas-fired reciprocating internal combustion engines used to power the grid has grown to more than 4,600 MW–some 20 percent of that deployed in Texas alone, the EIA report reads.

    Two states with high wind-energy penetration, Texas and Kansas (564 MW), stand atop the list of those with major reciprocating engine capacity. California is third with close to 400 MW.
    . . .
    The EIA says that Texas is home to three of the largest gas-fired reciprocating engine plants nationwide. Those include the 220-MW Red Gate near the Mexico border in McAllen, the 202-MW Pearsall near San Antonio and the 164-MW Antelope station near Lubbock.

    Texas, not coincidentally, is fast becoming one of the highest wind-energy producers in the world. The state has approximately 23 GW worth of installed capacity and is adding thousands more [wind turbines] every year, according to various reports. [bold added]

  19. oldbrew says:

    Past Climate Change May Have Weakened the Byzantine Empire
    Analysis of trash mounds shows how a regional hub collapsed after the onset of the Late Antiquity Little Ice Age.
    March 25, 2019

    By examining the literal dustbins of history, archaeologists have now shed light on how a 125-year “little ice age” might have wreaked havoc on the Byzantine Empire — an example of how climate change might influence human civilization.
    – – –
    Long before any oil/gas/coal/big industry came along.

    Late Antique Little Ice Age

    The Late Antique Little Ice Age was a long-lasting Northern Hemisphere cooling period in the 6th and 7th century AD, during the period known as late antiquity. Its existence was proposed as a theory in 2015, and subsequently confirmed as the interval from 536 to about 660 AD.[1] This period followed three immense volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547.

  20. oldbrew says:

    Current NOAA forecast for F10.7 radio flux declines until the chart ends in Jan. 2023.
    Same pattern for sunspots.

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    Left Angling for Rights in the Middle of Know-Ware

    Climatic administration of trace gaslighting brutally wages a tax from UNtraceable bureaucratic chambers.

    By multilateral necessity the major western fault slipped though internal neglect into corrective outsourcing.

    Outsourced rights were left mismanaged, as luminaries could be reached by no tethering stretch of UNinspyred “logical” stakes.

    (0.399672389874261)*(0.407020193867456) / ( (0.399672389874261 + 0.407020193867456) / 2 ) = 0.403312827931429

    IT wasn’t stoner rock,
    but psychadelic grunge,
    lacing Eur. fall for climatic tyranny.

    (0.402531481788798)*(0.403312827931429) / (0.402531481788798 – 0.403312827931429) = 207.777451495558

    C-the-Stay-Blessed Eyes U-Turn


    IT’s simple:
    Poles share an orbit arcing around the climatically UNworkable middle of nowhere.

    Overtaxing unity climatically undermined stability. Stable eyes aim with sharp revelation 4 principled divisions, not reckless fracture by 1 blunt revolution.

    May: No 1 knows what would happen if this deal didn’t pass.”
    Francois: “PM and […] House nose […] mathematics […] a surrender.”

    Dynamically stable orbit circles a way from unbearably costly revolution, overheated by thoughtlessly static prescriptions of course over natural terrain.

    Peacefully Antiresonant Stable Orbit of Know-Ware

    Before UNoIT dynamic moment of inertia spreads responsibility left with the right orbit 2 swing richly away from the middle of macronomically UNstable know-wear.

    Enlightening compassion 4 seas a-cross-the-isle reorientation a way from the precisely calculated darkness of brutally de-liberating “logic”.

    Psychadelic threat campaigns trace UNspoken elite contempt for God’s other beloved children who were UNrightly left to hang from climatic bubbles.

    Flaming-Red Tape

    No 1 raked fiery hellsinkey isle lose shun to finnish off well-aced revelation airy :11: peer sing of UKreignian exit.

    10 Downing:
    No Eur. Rules for UKreign
    pills 2 swallow
    rules 2 follow
    how they stick in Eur.
    crown tastes like gold
    O what ?U do #too me
    No.1 knows
    dead life boats
    in the sound
    √(Φ-φ) drift along the OCEAN
    eye re-allies Eur. mind
    and come UNdone
    heaven’s miles above
    a gift U give
    “Know One Knows” — Queens of The Stone Age

    The positively imaginary square route of negative one Cs IT’s rights left BRI10.

    “pain points”
    “illegal information”
    “public opinion control”
    “guidance of public opinion”
    “guide people to correctly view”
    “mass online public opinion outbreaks”
    positive thinking in public opinion propaganda”
    they are still immature and may cause security incidents

    The sharpest tiger moms simply accupuncture red tape with necessary invention.

  22. oldmanK says:

    Re oldbrew says: March 27, 2019 at 2:57 pm

    Not just the Byzantine empire, but it seems the whole of the known old world was being effected by the same ‘driver’. The Byzantine empire, Europe near the Med, notably Sicily and Spain, and further south, all show the same telltales. The last two millennia from which historical indication of periods of prosperity and flourish are countered by periods of decline (which can be in opposite, possibly due to latitude), the periods seem to correlate to the Eddy cycle. At earlier times such as 2200bce also show decline and in some cases total collapse.

    This will give some idea: The evidence is building up. The obsession with short term events is only a distraction.

  23. oldbrew says:

    Jupiter-Earth: Synodic period (days) = 398.88

    Venus rotation (days): 243.018

    Jupiter-Saturn: Synodic period (days) = 19.865036 years * 365.25636 (days per year) = 7255.8307
    9 J-S = Jose cycle = 7255.8307 * 9 = 65302.476 days

    65302.476 / 398.88 = 163.71459 (J-E per 9 J-S)
    65302.476 / 268.71456 (Ve rotns. per 9 J-S)
    268.71456 – 163.71459 = 104.99997 (= 105)
    105 = 21 * 5 (both Fibonacci numbers)

    Therefore the Venus rotation period should be in sync with the Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle over long timescales. Since 105 and 9 are both divisible by 3, the trigon (3 J-S) is also in sync with Venus. The equivalent number for the Saturn-Earth synodic period is 96 (105 – 9).
    – – –
    There’s more to this so a blog post should appear in the next few days.

  24. oldbrew says:

    Re oldbrew says: March 27, 2019 at 2:57 pm

    The equivalent to the Late Antique Ice Age eruptions would be Mount Pinatubo in 1991.
    – – –
    The Cataclysmic 1991 Eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines

    The second-largest volcanic eruption of this century, and by far the largest eruption to affect a densely populated area, occurred at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines on June 15, 1991. The eruption produced high-speed avalanches of hot ash and gas, giant mudflows, and a cloud of volcanic ash hundreds of miles across. The impacts of the eruption continue to this day.
    . . .
    When even more highly gas charged magma reached Pinatubo’s surface on June 15, the volcano exploded in a cataclysmic eruption that ejected more than 1 cubic mile (5 cubic kilometers) of material. The ash cloud from this climactic eruption rose 22 miles (35 kilometers) into the air.

  25. oldbrew says:

    Here come the mild hybrids…


    Electrified Fiesta and Focus

    The Fiesta EcoBoost Hybrid and Focus EcoBoost Hybrid will feature a sophisticated mild-hybrid architecture tailored to enhance fuel-efficiency while complementing Ford’s “fun to drive” experience with more powerful and responsive performance.

    A belt-driven integrated starter/generator (BISG) replaces the standard alternator, enabling recovery and storage of energy usually lost during braking and coasting to charge a 48-volt lithium-ion air-cooled battery pack.

    The BISG also acts as a motor, seamlessly integrating with the low-friction, three-cylinder 1.0‑litre EcoBoost combustion engine* and using the stored energy to provide torque assistance during normal driving and acceleration, as well as running the vehicle’s electrical ancillaries.

    The electric torque assistance helps deliver punchier, more responsive performance, particularly at lower engine speeds, for a more flexible and connected driving experience. The BISG has also enabled Ford engineers to boost the 1.0-litre EcoBoost engine’s power with a larger turbocharger, by mitigating turbo-lag.

  26. oldbrew says:

    Electric aviation firm magniX has agreed to convert a seaplane airline’s fleet to electric models
    . . .
    Roei Ganzarski, CEO of magniX, said: “In 2018, 75% of worldwide airline flights were 1,000 miles or less in range. With magniX’s new propulsion systems coupled with emerging battery capabilities, we see tremendous potential for electric aviation to transform this heavily trafficked ‘middle mile’ range.

  27. oldbrew says:

    Axios: Everything you need to know about the Boeing 737 MAX crashes

    Until the Lion Air crash, many 737 MAX pilots were unaware the MCAS system existed.
    . . .
    U.S. records indicate that pilots had filed at least 5 different complaints in recent months, reporting trouble retaining control of the jets while in flight. A report from the Dallas Morning News adds that one captain called the aircraft’s flight manual “inadequate and almost criminally insufficient.”
    . . .
    Boeing is in uncharted territory when it comes to modern aviation history: Not since the De Havilland Comet in the 1950s has a brand-new aircraft suffered such a spate of fatal incidents.
    – – –
    Standards slipping :/

  28. oldbrew says:

    From Ian Wilson’s blog:

    Wednesday, March 27, 2019
    The Genius of Nikolay Sidorenkov

    Here is a succinct summary of Nikolay Sidorenkov’s theoretical explanation for the observations that I have presented in this blog! Nikolay Sidorenkov is a true genius!!

    SUMMARY (if TL’DR): Just as the Earth’s movement around the Sun produces the yearly seasonal cycles in the Earth’s weather, the weekly movement of the Earth about the Earth-Moon barycentre produces weekly-seasons in the Earth’s synoptic weather.

    For more detail see: Celestial Mechanical Causes of Weather and Climate Change *
    N. S. Sidorenkov
    Izvestiya, Atmospheric, and Oceanic Physics, 2016, Vol. 52, No. 7, pp. 667–682

    Read more:

    [* Abstract and Preview here:

  29. oldbrew says:

    Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

  30. Stephen Richards says:

    Cannot contact you via twitter. Banned for criticising MPs. Best of luck in your election Roger. I don’t think you need it. Hard work such as your’s always brings it’s rewards

  31. oldbrew says:

    CBC: Is it possible to stop a hurricane?

    Eidnes says putting a bubble curtain in the Gulf would bring up cold water from below — and if you can cool the surface of the sea, in theory, you’ll be taking the energy out of a hurricane.

    Researchers have tried for decades to come up with ways to stop hurricanes — everything from dropping dry ice in the clouds to seeding the clouds with silver iodide. None of those ideas has been successful.

    Frank Marks, director of hurricane research at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said he gets pitches on how to stop hurricanes about once a week. (The most unique one came during Hurricane Katrina in 2005: “A general in the air force called me and said, ‘I got the bombs. Tell me where to put ’em.’ “) [bold added]
    – – –
    Classic 😆

  32. Q. Daniels says:

    I’ve got a paper:
    Measuring Thermally-Driven LED Emissions via Voltage Modulation near Zero Bias

    I’m interested in doing a version of the paper for the Talkshop.

    It ends up being a fairly reproducible Second Law violation.

  33. sunspotlover says:

    I made an important update for the start of Solar Cycle 25:

    Our formula covers the period September 2018–February 2019.
    However, after analyzing the lowest adjusted 10.7cm solar flux values in combination with the lowest sunspot values, our latest indicators narrowed this time period to September-November 2018.

    We will know in a few weeks if my markers, that were right 6 times, will do it again!

  34. oldbrew says:

    – – –
    April 5, 2019 [click on pic to link to full article]

    Germany’s three largest carmakers secretly agreed to equip their vehicles with inferior emissions equipment, European authorities said Friday, a finding that could expose Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW to a large share of the blame for poor air quality in Europe that is believed to cause thousands of deaths annually.

    The preliminary decision by the European Commission escalates a scandal that began in 2015 when Volkswagen confessed that it had equipped millions of vehicles in Europe and the United States with software designed to dupe emissions testers. If the finding published Friday is confirmed, the carmakers could face billions of euros in fines.

    The latest accusation against the carmakers is, in many ways, even broader than Volkswagen’s cheating. The commission said that for most of a decade, Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW had agreed not to compete on key components of their pollution controls, violating antitrust laws and contributing to bad air quality in traffic-clogged cities like London and Paris.

    Instead, the carmakers colluded to restrict the size of tanks used to hold a fluid that cleanses diesel emissions, the commission said, while delaying deployment of filters that remove cancer-causing particles from the exhaust of gasoline engines.

  35. oldbrew says:

    APRIL 5, 2019
    Researcher uses lightning storms to measure the density of Earth’s upper atmosphere
    by University of Colorado Denver

    No one has a firm grasp on the dimensions and activity of the lowest part of our upper atmosphere, known as the ionospheric D region, because it’s literally a moving target. Located 40 to 60 miles above the Earth’s surface, the region moves up and down, depending on the time of day. And it’s nearly impossible to monitor: it’s too high for airplanes and research balloons, too low for satellites, and not dense enough for direct radio sounding.

    Understanding the D region does more than benefit scientific research. It can also affect a wide range of military technologies, including improving the accuracy and resolution of low-frequency navigation systems. Such systems can be alternatives to GPS and are of growing importance to the military.

    The solution, researchers discovered, is lightning storms. By measuring the electromagnetic waves produced by lightning, researchers were able to retrace the lightning’s path to diagnose the electron density of the region.

  36. oldbrew says:

    Another dark matter dud…

    One night of telescope time rules out black hole/dark matter idea
    Black holes formed right after the Big Bang aren’t common enough to be dark matter.

    The latest bit of emptiness was published this week, and it seemingly puts an end to one of the possible remaining explanations for dark matter: black holes that formed shortly after the Big Bang and have been structuring the Universe ever since. While earlier studies have seemingly ruled out larger versions of these primordial black holes, the new study closes the window on anything more massive than a large asteroid. And it was all accomplished with just a single night of telescope time.

  37. oldbrew says:

    Latest walrus fake news debunked here.

    Attenborough’s tragedy porn of walruses plunging to their deaths because of climate change is contrived nonsense
    Posted on April 7, 2019

  38. oldbrew says:

    Announcement due on 10 April 2019, at 15:00 CEST (13:00 UTC, 9:00 EST)

    For The First Time, We Have a Direct Image of The Dusty Torus Around a Black Hole
    8 APR 2019

    The torus structure scientists have managed to capture is within the radio galaxy Cygnus A. Although Cygnus A is around 760-800 million light-years away, it is one of the brightest radio sources in the sky.

    At its centre is a supermassive black hole equivalent to the mass of around 2.5 billion Suns, actively accreting tremendous amounts of matter and shooting relativistic jets of plasma light-years into space from its poles.

    These features – the supermassive black hole, the accretion disc, the relativistic jets – combine to form a sort of “unified model” of the active galactic nucleus (AGN).

  39. oldbrew says:

    APRIL 9, 2019 REPORT
    Gas dynamics in a nearby protostellar binary system studied with ALMA

    Protostars as single objects or existing in binary systems are important for astronomers to study the mechanisms of star formation. In some protostellar binaries a peculiar “bridge” of material is clearly visible, which connects the recently formed components. This remnant material could be the key to better understand how stars form and evolve.

    IRAS 16293−2422 (or IRAS 16293 for short) exhibits such a bridge connection between the two companions. It is a young, Class 0 protostellar system located some 400 light years away in the Ophiuchus cloud complex, consisting of two protostars, designated IRAS 16293A and IRAS 16293B, separated by about 636 AU from each other. [bold added]
    – – –
    636 AU is over 20 times the distance between the Sun and Neptune (~30 AU).

  40. oldbrew says:

    APRIL 9, 2019
    Jupiter’s atmosphere heats up under solar wind
    by NASA

    New Earth-based telescope observations show that auroras at Jupiter’s poles are heating the planet’s atmosphere to a greater depth than previously thought—and that it is a rapid response to the solar wind.

    “The solar wind impact at Jupiter is an extreme example of space weather,” said James Sinclair of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, who led new research published April 8 in Nature Astronomy. “We’re seeing the solar wind having an effect deeper than is normally seen.”
    . . .
    “What is startling about the results is that we were able to associate for the first time the variations in solar wind and the response in the stratosphere—and that the response to these variations is so quick for such a large area,” said JPL’s Glenn Orton, co-author and part of the observing team.

    Within a day of the solar wind hitting Jupiter, the chemistry in its atmosphere changed and its temperature rose, the team found.

  41. oldbrew says:

    Date: 09/04/19 Dave Keating, Forbes

    The European Commission risked crossing red lines by proposing more EU control over national energy policy and taxation.

    “We can’t have the most ambitious framework to develop an energy union, and at the same time have a palaeolithic energy taxation system,” he [EU energy boss] fumed. “This is unbelievable!”

    EU carbon taxes?

  42. oldbrew says:

    It’s black hole day.

    « Event Horizon Telescope Releases Humanity’s First Ever Black Hole Image

    What The Event Horizon Telescope Reveals About Galaxy M87
    By Jake Parks | April 10, 2019

    Without the striking spiral arms that decorate many of its neighbors, M87 comes off as something of a dull, spherical blob. But within it hides one of the most powerful galactic engines in the local universe. M87’s supermassive black hole packs the mass of several billion suns into a surprisingly tiny volume. And a seven-year study with the Hubble Space Telescope caught this invisible beast firing a powerful jet of high-energy particles out at nearly the speed of light, shooting them roughly 5,000 light-years into space.

    ‘powerful jet of high-energy particles’ = a lot of electron volts.

  43. Paul Vaughan says:

    Jupiter-Earth-Venus 208 year de Vries Extension from Hale

    Tossing sticks in the pond for loyal golden retrievers…
    EU’ve got somethin’
    holdin’ IT tightly

    caught on command
    canine devotion time can’t erase

    √(Φ-φ) never believe them and √(Φ-φ) never assume
    Look: 4 reflections in Eur. face

    eye think EU already know
    how far eye’d go not to say
    Queens of the Stone Age
    The Lost Art of Keeping a Secret

    Tossed in mathematical equivalence some of the sticks weren’t fetched.
    Loyal eyes by fall may trace a more intuitive arc…

  44. oldbrew says:

    Black hole fraud?

    ‘First Black Hole Image’ Claim Challenged
    Published on April 12, 2019

    As the world’s press rush to share news of the world’s ‘First Black Hole Image‘ some skeptics are challenging the claim.

    Australian researcher, Stephen J Crothers has issued a dissenting open letter to the author of the original assertion, Sabine Hossenfelder. The open letter is posted below in full and we invite readers to draw their own conclusions:

    Dear Sabine Hossenfelder,

    I note your article on the alleged imaging of a black hole: First Black-Hole Image: It’s Not Looks That Count – Facts So Romantic – Nautilus

    Your past reports have never been honest and this is no exception. It is not a discovery at all.

    Read more:

  45. oldbrew says:

    Tree-planting drones could help restore the world’s forests

    British engineers have created a seed-planting drone which could help restore the world’s forests.
    . . .
    Roughly 350,000 hectares of coastal forest need to be restored, which translates to more than a billion trees.

    Ten drones, operated by two operators, can plant 400,000 trees a day.

    The drones work by flying across a specified area, collecting data about soil conditions and determining the prime locations for planting.

    They then fire biodegradable pods, filled with a germinated seed and nutrients, into the ground.

  46. oldbrew says:

    Latest ice age theory claims rocks absorbing CO2 is the way to explain the past.

    Ice Ages occur when tropical islands and continents collide
    Collisions in tropics expose rocks that take up carbon dioxide, cooling normally balmy Earth

    Date: April 11, 2019
    Source: University of California – Berkeley

    Earth’s steady state is warm and balmy, but half a dozen times over the past billion years, the planet developed ice caps and glaciers. Researchers have now amassed evidence that these cold snaps occurred when tectonic activity propelled continents headlong into volcanic island arcs in the tropics, uplifting ophiolites that rapidly absorbed carbon dioxide, cooling Earth. Once collisions stopped, CO2 again built up from volcanic eruptions and a runaway greenhouse effect warmed the planet.
    – – –
    One line in the report stands out:

    Over millennia, Earth’s natural carbon sequestration program will restore balance, Swanson-Hysell said, but this will be a long wait for modern civilization, which has been so successful in Earth’s current, cooler climate. [bold added]

    Their problem seems to be that CO2 rise follows warming by a few centuries in the ice core records, which is the reverse of what their theory expects.

  47. oldbrew says:

    Variation of Geomagnetic Activity Since 1844
    [chart ends after solar cycle 22]

    1930s peak (C16) during the Dust Bowl years?

  48. oldbrew says:

    April 8, 2019
    Sounding Rocket Mission Will Trace Auroral Winds

    Editor’s note, April 8, 2019: The Auroral Zone Upwelling Rocket Experiment or AZURE mission was successfully conducted April 5 from the Andøya Space Center in Norway.
    . . .
    Preliminary reports state that the scientist for the mission were very pleased with the results.
    . . .
    Understanding the contribution that aurora make to the total amount of energy that enters and leaves Earth’s geospace system — referred to as auroral forcing — is one of the major goals of the NASA-funded Auroral Zone Upwelling Rocket Experiment, or AZURE. The more we learn about auroras, the more we understand about the fundamental processes that drive near-Earth space — a region that is increasingly part of the human domain, home not only to astronauts but also communications and GPS signals that can affect those of us on the ground on a daily basis.

  49. oldbrew says:

    APRIL 16, 2019
    New discovery makes fast-charging, better performing lithium-ion batteries possible

    In this most recent work, Koratkar and his team improved performance by substituting cobalt oxide with vanadium disulfide (VS2).

    “It gives you higher energy density, because it’s light. And it gives you faster charging capability, because it’s highly conductive. From those points of view, we were attracted to this material,” said Koratkar, who is also a professor in the Department of Materials Science and Engineering.

    Excitement surrounding the potential of VS2 has been growing in recent years, but until now, Koratkar said, researchers had been challenged by its instability—a characteristic that would lead to short battery life. The Rensselaer researchers not only established why that instability was happening, but also developed a way to combat it.

  50. oldbrew says:

    Something different…

  51. oldbrew says:

    ENSO Wrap-Up
    Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
    16 April 2019

    BoM: ‘The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño developing in the coming months is approximately 70%; around triple the normal likelihood.
    . . .
    …if El Niño does develop it is likely to be short lived and weak.’

  52. oldbrew says:

    DECEMBER 14, 2018
    By Willie Soon, Patrick Moore

    Download the PDF:

    Although Greenpeace relies heavily on marketing, advertising, and free market principles, they promote socialist and anti-capitalist ideals in their messaging.

    Greenpeace have successfully created a public perception that they are fighting to protect humanity, nature and the environment from the evils of corrupt industries and vested interests. This perception is so popular and wide-spread that whenever Greenpeace speaks out on an issue it is automatically assumed to be true, and anybody who questions Greenpeace’s claims is assumed to be corrupt. However, as we will discuss in this report, the reality is almost exactly the opposite…

  53. oldbrew says:

    ‘Get a life’ springs to mind…

    – – –
    Who’s REALLY behind 16-year-old Greta Thunberg? Ugly feud between her opera singer-turned-climate-activist mother and the green PR man who she accuses of exploiting her

    Greta Thunberg spoke to Existence Rebellion protesters in London, yesterday
    Reports claim Swedish teen’s rise to fame is more orchestrated than first thought
    Six months ago the unknown teenager camped outside Sweden’s parliament

  54. craigm350 says:

    Good grief 😑
    Greta Thunberg: Teen activist says future has been stolen

    Climate change activist Greta Thunberg has said the future of her generation has been “stolen”.

    In a speech to MPs, she said: “That future has been sold so a small number of people can make unimaginable amounts of money.”

    The Swedish 16-year-old was invited to the UK after inspiring the school climate strikes movement.

    Environment Secretary Michael Gove said “we have not done nearly enough” to combat climate change.

  55. oldbrew says:

    Thun-bot must be referring to Al Gore and his cronies 😐

  56. oldbrew says:

    ScienceDaily: A close look at lithium batteries

    Fluorescence probe shows the distribution of active lithium species on lithium metal anodes
    Date: April 24, 2019

    As a lithium anode battery discharges, the anode releases electrons to the circuit and positively charged lithium ions to the electrolyte. As the battery is recharged, this process is reversed, depositing lithium back onto the anode. Unfortunately, deposition is not uniform and can lead to the formation of branched structures known as dendrites, which can become so large that they cause a short circuit. [bold added]

  57. oldbrew says:

    tuesday, april 23, 2019 .
    luboš motl: Thanks, CO2: the resilience of plants to drought is amazing

  58. oldbrew says:

    Baffled scientists news…

    Mystery of the universe’s expansion rate widens with new Hubble data
    by Rob Garner, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

  59. oldmanK says:

    From the Big Wobble :
    Quote: ‘– with some water levels expected once every 1,000 years — ‘. Or ~980 yrs ?

  60. oldbrew says:

    Did the Titanic Sink Because of an Optical Illusion?
    MARCH 1, 2012

    New research may have found the reason why the ship struck an iceberg: light refraction

    An unusual optical phenomenon explains why the Titanic struck an iceberg and received no assistance from a nearby ship, according to new research by British historian Tim Maltin. Atmospheric conditions in the area that night were ripe for super refraction, Maltin found. This extraordinary bending of light causes miraging, which, he discovered, was recorded by several ships in the area. He says it also prevented the Titanic’s lookouts from seeing the iceberg in time and the freighter Californian from identifying the ocean liner and communicating with it. A 1992 British government investigation suggested that super refraction may have played a role in the disaster, but that possibility went unexplored until Maltin mined weather records, survivors’ testimony and long-forgotten ships’ logs. His findings—presented in his new book, A Very Deceiving Night, and the documentary film Titanic’s Final Mystery…are distilled here: [bold added]

  61. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK says: April 28, 2019 at 2:18 pm

    “There was a high snowpack this year throughout the entire Ottawa River watershed and we’ve had some major precipitation events over the last couple of weeks.”

    Looks like cooling.

  62. oldbrew says:



  63. Saighdear says:

    Did I really miss this? Hurricane Michael Cat 5 at time of U.S. landfall, recently… Not a cheep in the MSM ws there?
    from NOAA


  64. oldbrew says:

    Evidence of ‘an observatory for monitoring the night sky’ – 13,000 years ago.

    Ancient Carvings Show Evidence of a Comet Swarm Hitting Earth Around 13,000 Years Ago

    “I think this research, along with the recent finding of a widespread platinum anomaly across the North American continent virtually seal the case in favour of [a Younger Dryas comet impact],” lead researcher Martin Sweatman told Sarah Knapton from The Telegraph at the time.

    “Our work serves to reinforce that physical evidence. What is happening here is the process of paradigm change.”

    The translation of the symbols also suggests that Gobekli Tepe wasn’t just another temple, as long assumed – it might have also been an ancient observatory.

    “It appears Gobekli Tepe was, among other things, an observatory for monitoring the night sky,” Sweatman told the Press Association.

  65. oldbrew says:

    Naked Eye Sprite Storms

    April 30, 2019: Have you ever seen a sprite? Some say it’s impossible. The strange and fleeting forms of red lightning materialize above thunderheads, then disappear again in less time than it takes to blink. Yet this week veteran sprite chaser Paul Smith says he did see them: “I’ve watched a number with my bare eyes over the last two big storms in Kansas.”

  66. oldbrew,

    Here are some recent posts at my blog site – The first reference encompasses the other three:

    Factors Which Affect the Location and Strength of High-Pressure Cells Over South-Eastern Australia During the Southern Summer (DJF)

    What is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Trying to Hide?

    A 2013 Prediction of Severe Drought in South-Eastern Australia in 2019, Willfully Ignored by the Australian Government.

    Another 2013 prediction that the temperatures in SE Australia would be above normal in 2019 – Completely ignored by the Government!

  67. oldbrew says:

    The Sun Is Stranger Than Astrophysicists Imagined

    The sun radiates far more high-frequency light than expected, raising questions about unknown features of the sun’s magnetic field and the possibility of even more exotic physics.
    – – –
    A decade’s worth of telescope observations of the sun have revealed a startling mystery: Gamma rays, the highest frequency waves of light, radiate from our nearest star seven times more abundantly than expected. Stranger still, despite this extreme excess of gamma rays overall, a narrow bandwidth of frequencies is curiously absent.
    . . .
    …the detected gamma rays drop off as a function of frequency at a different rate than cosmic rays. If cosmic rays are the source, the two rates would be expected to match.
    – – –
    ‘even more exotic physics’ – more exotic than what?
    Scientists Discover Exotic New Patterns of Synchronization

    In a world seemingly filled with chaos, physicists have discovered new forms of synchronization and are learning how to predict and control them.

  68. oldbrew says:

    Human exposure to motion during maintenance on floating offshore wind turbines (2018 study)

    Working on floating offshore wind turbines is a complex operation. An important factor is the influence that the structural motion has on humans located on the asset in a harsh environment during maintenance activities and its implications towards personal safety, human comfort and the ability to work.

  69. oldbrew says:

    Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle takes three average solar cycles to go round the Sun once.
    ‘It is the parent body of the Leonid meteor shower.’ – Wikipedia

    Orbital period 33.2226 years

    33.2226 / 3 = 11.0742 years
    9 * 55P = ~299 Earth orbits = 27 solar cycles (9*3)

  70. N.B. Ben Santer and Michael Mann are among those authoring this publication.

    The bottom line: We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.

    Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates

    Benjamin D. Santer, John C. Fyfe, Giuliana Pallotta, Gregory M. Flato, Gerald A. Meehl, Matthew H. England, Ed Hawkins, Michael E. Mann, Jeffrey F. Painter, Céline Bonfils, Ivana Cvijanovic, Carl Mears, Frank J. Wentz, Stephen Po-Chedley, Qiang Fu & Cheng-Zhi Zou
    Nature Geoscience volume 10, pages 478–485 (2017)

    In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyze global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modeled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.

  71. oldbrew says:

    astroclimateconnection says: May 8, 2019 at 3:36 am

    differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates

    Today the models are even more wrong than when the paper came out in 2017 :/

    The Weakness of Tropospheric Warming as Confirmed by AIRS
    May 1st, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

  72. oldbrew says:

    Strange but true…

    MAY 10, 2019
    New water cycle on Mars discovered

    The orbit of Mars plays a decisive role in this. Its path around the sun, which lasts about two Earth years, is much more elliptical than that of our planet. At the point closest to the sun (which roughly coincides with the summer of the southern hemisphere), Mars is approximately 42 million kilometers closer to the sun than at its furthest point. Summer in the southern hemisphere is therefore noticeably warmer than summer in the northern hemisphere.

    “When it is summer in the southern hemisphere, at certain times of day, water vapor can rise locally with warmer air masses and reach the upper atmosphere,” says Paul Hartogh from MPS, summarizing the results of the new study.

  73. oldbrew says:

    astroclimateconnection says: May 10, 2019 at 9:04 pm

    Almost a 30:31 ratio between the 4.5723y period and half the apsidal cycle.

    Update – 21:16 ratio of ~1670 days and the lunar wobble period (2190.35 days) works well too, and/or 21:96 ratio with tropical years (=7:32). Which in turn would make it 7:27 with the Chandler Wobble, and at 20 beats per ~32 years it would be ~1.6 years per beat, very much like Venus-Earth, and 4 per 6.4 year Venus-Earth-Mars synodic cycle.

    4.5723 * 7 = 32.0061y
    32.0061 / 5 = 6.40122y
    32 – 7 = 5²

  74. oldbrew says:

    Impact of the astronomical lunar 18.6-yr tidal cycle on El-Niño and Southern Oscillation
    Ichiro Yasuda
    Published: 12 October 2018

    In this study, we discovered a statistically significant relationship between ENSO timing and the 18.6-year period lunar tidal cycle in the mature-phase (December–February) ENSO time-series during 1867–2015 and extending back to 1706 with proxy data. It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle, and La-Niña tended to occur in the 3rd, 12th, and 16th years.

  75. oldbrew,

    Yasuda’s heart is in the right place but he is mistaken in his attribution of the El Nino/La Nina cycle to the 18.6-year Draconic tidal cycles. He has confused it with 18.03-year Saros cycle, which is close to 18.6 years. The ENSO cycle is driven by the strongest lunar tidal cycles that are aligned with the seasons. This is the 31/62/93/186-year Perigean New/Full Moon tidal cycle. The reason that he is getting a result around about 18 years is that is 18 years sums with 13 years to give 31 years.

    The time difference between the peaks in the Nino3.4 SST index for the 1997/98 El Nino (December 1997) and the 2015/16 El Nino (November 2015) is close to 18.0 years and NOT 18.6 years.

    P.S. I believe that Yasuda claim that the 18.6-year Draconic tidal cycle has something to do with the PDO is probably correct.

  76. oldbrew says:

    astro – the formula I had for the Saros was:

    766 Saros = 766 * 223 synodic months = 223 * 7 apsidal cycles
    (so 766 SM = 7 apsidal)

    The period is 13811 tropical years = 766 * 18, +23 TY = 184629 tropical months = 766 * 241, +23 TM
    (241 – 18 = 223, 23 – 23 cancels to zero)
    Draconic years in the period = 766 * 19, -1 (within a few days – actual Saros-DY whole number match is closest at 754 Saros).
    Nodal cycles = 742 (DY – TY, or 766 Saros – 24)

  77. oldbrew says:

    and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
    9 May 2019

    ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

    Synopsis: El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance).
    . . .
    However, model predictions made during the spring tend to be less accurate relative to the rest of the year, so uncertainty remains whether this outcome will occur.

    More discussion here:

  78. oldbrew says:

    Bill implementing Brexit deal to be introduced in early June
    22 minutes ago

    After the Euro elections 😐

  79. Thanks oldbrew, I will look into the interesting info you have posted (above May 13, 2019 at 3:37 pm)

  80. oldbrew says:

    astro – the numbers originate here:

    NASA says: ‘Due to the ellipticity of the orbits of Earth and the Moon, the exact duration and number of eclipses in a complete Saros is not constant. A series may last 1226 to 1550 years and is comprised of 69 to 87 eclipses, of which about 40 to 60 are central’

    69 is 3*23, and 23 is the ‘excess’ of tropical years in the notes above (18*766, +23 = 13811).
    Full moon cycles = 16*766, -6 (12250)
    87 is 3*29, and the number of apsidal cycles is 13811 – 12250 = 1561 = 2*766 plus 29.

    Don’t know if that is of any use.

  81. sunspotlover says:

    Important solar news

    Start Solar Cycle 25: September 2018

    Many solar cycle researchers think that cycle 25 will start late 2019 or even in 2020-2021. However, after analyzing the lowest adjusted 10.7cm solar flux values in combination with the lowest sunspot values, we find that the adjusted flux for November 2018 is low enough to give the start of solar Cycle 25 between September-November 2018. Because the sunspot number for May 16, 2019 will exceed 9.0, giving a smoothed value of 6.7 for November 2018, the value of 6.6 for September 2018 will give the start of solar Cycle 25.

  82. oldbrew says:

    MAY 15, 2019
    New research finds unprecedented weakening of Asian summer monsoon
    by American Geophysical Union

    Rainfall from the Asian summer monsoon has been decreasing over the past 80 years, a decline unprecedented in the last 448 years, according to a new study.

    The new research used tree ring records to reconstruct the Asian summer monsoon back to 1566. The study, published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters, found the monsoon has been weakening since the 1940s, resulting in regional droughts and hardships.

    The new research finds man-made atmospheric pollutants are likely the reason for the decline. The 80-year decline in the monsoon coincides with the ongoing boom in industrial development and aerosol emissions in China and the northern hemisphere that began around the end of World War II, according to the study’s authors.
    – – –
    But correlation is not necessarily causation.

    Sun’s Activity Increased in Past Century, Study Confirms

  83. craigm350 says:

    Tucked up in this monster paper is this;

    Ben Davidson highlighted this in yesterday’s video noting the plummet in activity only happens during SC24.


    Impact of Space Weather on Climate
    and Habitability of Terrestrial Type Exoplanets

    Looks interesting but a lot to read.

  84. oldbrew says:

    NEWS RELEASE 17-MAY-2019
    Wearable cooling and heating patch could serve as personal thermostat and save energy

    Engineers at the University of California San Diego have developed a wearable patch that could provide personalized cooling and heating at home, work, or on the go. The soft, stretchy patch cools or warms a user’s skin to a comfortable temperature and keeps it there as the ambient temperature changes. It is powered by a flexible, stretchable battery pack and can be embedded in clothing. Researchers say wearing it could help save energy on air conditioning and heating.

    The work is published May 17 in the journal Science Advances.

    “This type of device can improve your personal thermal comfort whether you are commuting on a hot day or feeling too cold in your office,” said Renkun Chen, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at UC San Diego who led the study.

    The device, which is at the proof-of-concept stage, could also save energy.–wca050819.php

  85. oldbrew says:

    Industry opinion: Flying a kite – the 100 per cent renewables myth
    By Peter Hughes, Director of Business Development, Black & Veatch Europe

    Why conventional power generation is not the enemy in the fight for a carbon-free future
    – – –
    Waffles a bit about carbon capture, but points out that the UK could be in trouble by 2025 if it doesn’t replace its old power stations with new ones, starting soon.

  86. oldbrew says:

    Social climbers – The Brexit Party wins the battle for Facebook clicks

    Despite spending no more than rival parties on ads, it has got more likes, shares and comments than the rest combined
    = = =

    = = =

    Not official yet, but…

    Newspaper headlines: ‘Time finally runs out for May’
    By BBC News Staff
    3 hours ago

  87. oldbrew says:

    Something’s Hiding in Our Outer Solar System, But It Might Not Be Planet Nine
    25 MAY 2019

    Instead of one big object, the orbital wobblies could be caused by the combined gravitational force of a number of smaller Kuiper Belt or trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). That’s according to astrophysicists Antranik Sefilian of the University of Cambridge in the UK and Jihad Touma of the American University of Beirut in Lebanon.

    If it sounds familiar, that’s because Sefilian and Touma are not the first to think of this idea – but their calculations are the first to explain significant features of the strange orbits of these objects, while taking into account the other eight planets in the Solar System.
    . . .
    And there’s still another problem with both models: in order to produce the observed effect, the Kuiper Belt needs a collective gravity of at least a few Earth masses.

    Current estimates, however, put the mass of the Kuiper Belt at just 4 to 10 percent of Earth’s mass.

  88. oldbrew says:

    Euro elections: The Brexit party is leading so far, by far…

    31.5% vote share after 30% of results in.
    – – –
    UPDATE: The Brexit Party’s EU elections triumph

    Their victory now leaves Nigel Farage reigning supreme in the European Parliament, at the head of the largest single party in the chamber with 29 seats – trumping even Angela Merkel’s 28 CDU MEPs.

    Some results not in yet.

  89. oldbrew says:

    BOM: ENSO wrap-up 28/05/19

    Positive Indian Ocean Dipole likelihood increases

    The Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere remain close to El Niño thresholds, so the ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. Models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will ease away from El Niño levels, becoming neutral during winter. The Indian Ocean is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate, with models predicting a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop in the coming months.

    An active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the last fortnight weakened the trade winds and brought a small rise in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and western tropical Pacific Ocean and a drop in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This has sustained the El Niño-like pattern in the Pacific. While a prolonged weakening of the trade winds could elevate El Niño chances once again, the majority of surveyed models suggest the tropical Pacific will cool to neutral levels during winter.

    Read more:
    (overwritten every 2 weeks)

  90. A C Osborn says:

    Roger & Oldbrew here is one for you.

    I think that is an “Up Yours to WUWT”.

  91. craigm350 says:

    [curiosity] used its black-and-white Navigation Cameras (Navcams) to snap images of drifting clouds on May 7 and May 12, 2019, sols 2400 and 2405. They’re likely water-ice clouds about 19 miles (31 kilometers) above the surface.

  92. oldbrew says:

    On the Flat Earth Rants of Joe Postma

    June 4th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
    – – –
    Effect of Sun angle on climate

    The amount of heat energy received at any location on the globe is a direct effect of Sun angle on climate, as the angle at which sunlight strikes the Earth varies by location, time of day, and season due to the Earth’s orbit around the Sun and the Earth’s rotation around its tilted axis. Seasonal change in the angle of sunlight, caused by the tilt of the Earth’s axis, is the basic mechanism that results in warmer weather in summer than in winter.[1][2][3] Change in day length is another factor.

  93. oldbrew says:

    JUNE 4, 2019
    Physicists discover new clue to planet formation

    An international study led by the Monash School of Physics and Astronomy has discovered the first observational evidence for the existence of circumplanetary discs.
    . . .
    “We think the large moons of Jupiter and other gas giants were born in such a disc, so our work helps to explain how planets in our solar system formed,” he said.

    Seeing the moons of Jupiter through a telescope had Galileo arrested in his day, because he saw that not everything orbited the Earth, and we were therefore not the centre of the Universe.

  94. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 39 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

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