Suggestions-40

Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 39

    [for viewing only please]

    = = =

  2. oldbrew says:

    Money down the drain…

    Thousands of ships fitted with ‘cheat devices’ to divert poisonous pollution into sea

    More than $12bn (£9.7bn) has been spent on the devices, known as open-loop scrubbers, which extract sulphur from the exhaust fumes of ships that run on heavy fuel oil.

    This means the vessels meet standards demanded by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) that kick in on 1 January.

    However, the sulphur emitted by the ships is simply re-routed from the exhaust and expelled into the water around the ships, which not only greatly increases the volume of pollutants being pumped into the sea, but also increases carbon dioxide emissions.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/shipping-pollution-sea-open-loop-scrubber-carbon-dioxide-environment-a9123181.html

  3. oldbrew says:

    ANOTHER CLIMATE SCIENTIST WITH IMPECCABLE CREDENTIALS BREAKS RANKS: “OUR MODELS ARE MICKEY-MOUSE MOCKERIES OF THE REAL WORLD”
    SEPTEMBER 26, 2019

    Dr. Mototaka Nakamura received a Doctorate of Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and for nearly 25 years specialized in abnormal weather and climate change at prestigious institutions that included MIT, Georgia Institute of Technology, NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, JAMSTEC and Duke University.

    In his book The Global Warming Hypothesis is an Unproven Hypothesis, Dr. Nakamura explains why the data foundation underpinning global warming science is “untrustworthy” and cannot be relied on.

    https://electroverse.net/another-climate-scientist-with-impeccable-credentials-breaks-ranks/

  4. Wilson says:

    Here is a walk down memory lane – looking at the data that inspired me to write my ill-fated 2014 PRP paper. Copernicus Publications pulled the Journal in 2014 but they still accepted and published my paper in PRP Vol 2. It appeared online for a short while and then disappeared. Apparently, it is OK for a publisher to accept a paper online and publish it and then remove it from publication without giving any rational reason for their actions.

    Wilson, I.R.G. Are the Strongest Lunar Perigean Spring Tides Commensurate with the Transit Cycle of Venus?, Pattern Recogn. Phys., 2, 75-93

    Received: 25/Jul/2014 – Revised: 10/Sep/2014 – Accepted: 18/Sep/2014 – Published: 28/Nov/2014

    https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/10/are-strongest-lunar-perigean-spring.html

  5. oldbrew says:

    IW – re transit cycle comment, is there any connection to the Metonic cycle?

  6. oldbrew says:

    Climate alarmists buy off CalTech, NASA with monstrous $750 million payoff
    By James Taylor | October 3rd, 2019

    The California Institute of Technology (Caltech) and NASA showed they are bought and sold by alarmist Daddy Warbucks money, as Caltech announced it is accepting a monstrous $750 million donation that will fund alarmist programs. Caltech announced it will use the money to establish a sustainability center, fund alarmist climate change programs, and funnel money to NASA for similar programs.

    https://www.cfact.org/2019/10/03/climate-alarmists-buy-off-caltech-nasa-with-monstrous-750-million-payoff/
    – – –
    He who pays the piper calls the tune.

  7. Paul Vaughan says:

    Hi mAIayan Peak Search and Rescue

    Stay blessed polar rose 4 the stablest pole arose.

    Seidelmann, Conway, and even Bhargava followed Ramanujan’s AImost-integer piece of universally well-primed aggregation criteria to the best Mayan day counts.

    73_2=1001001
    _ = base

    Recall by the method of loci peacefully revelationary counterbalance, as AIlyin’ revolution rounds up impAIin drones triggered buy Eur. AIlion puppet-mastered art.

    “Round and round
    what goes around come SAR round
    eye new right from the beginning
    EU’d Putin Arrow th.ru my Heart”
    — Ratt

    3_2=11
    5_2=101
    15_2=1111

    Placid East Turns Hot Stew Dense of Hollywood Art

    Place ID bets We’ll C sum well-weighted magic e-leaven powers R addin’ palindromes 4 better truth’n’fiction mix on the scenic route to peace-by-piece revelation with no revolution:

    9801=14641-2662-2662+484=11^4-2*11^3-2*11^3+2^2*11^2=99^2=(9*11)^2

    C-lipping R drunk kin fly’s USe of well-pumped wings just to keep the dirt down We “R Addin’ a C-age” — Smashin’ Pump Kin’s Bull IT With Bet Turf Fly Wins

    208=4*52
    260=5*52=5/4*208
    232=4*58
    290=5*58=5/4*232
    290=2*(72+73)

    Makes perfect parallel scents iff Eur. knot-a-bot.

    15=(290-260)/2

    73=290/5+15
    72.5=(72+73)/2=290/4
    72=290/2-290/5-15

    5256=73*72=(290/5+15)*(290/2-290/5-15)

    “Let’s get high awhile… looked right through… to real eyes IT AI …eye could not run away …let the spell last 4 ever …well summer …passed to fall …played inside the months of moon …winter nights we sang in tune …but TRI to understand…” — “Magic Man” Heart

    396=2*146+208/2=9/10*(232+208)=352+44=360+36=18*22=4*√9801=4*9*11=√(11*9)*4*√(9*11)

    99_2=1100011

    Stably Facing the Deep Pest States

    R adanac-age C zing such high mAIayan day counts 4 decades 2 centuries face sing R deep pest provocation We C just a Euler-league test of supremely symbolic restraint.

    The darkest agents provocateurs e-tempt vile ants to yank Eur. stay blessed Q-card so EU instantly lose IT, crystAI-clarifying necessity’s role in mothering only the stablest.

    We’ll C if R guards can adeptly revolve peace around minimally revelationary piece, 4 “In God We Trust…”

    With stay blessed restraint, stablest pole arrows revolved around piece together revealing peaceful polar rose. IT’s AImost -integer revelationary peace by well-restrained piece.

    208.00006866455=2*((4*9*11)^4-e^π√(4*9+11*2))
    The message was well-repeated. Just No.1 got it.

    Only Sun: a MAA Sing Try Angle

    “Ramanujan had invented ingenious methods about quadratic forms long before math was ready for them. And in 199373 years after Ramanujan’s death – […] an AImost too-good-to-be-true result […] by revisiting Ramanujan’s notes and perfecting his methods.”

    164=(396+260)/4=396-232=208-44
    81=9*(11-2)
    29=9*11*232/396/2=290/2/5=58/2=(22+36)/2=(72+73)/5=44-15=2*9+11

    Seidelman published 72 years after Ramanajuan ironed the high mAIayan curtain 4 the stay blessed polar rosin’ history.

    Matrix Accupuncture: Makes Know Sense to Crystal Lies

    5256=(290/4)^2-(1/2)^2=(290/4+1/2)*(290/4-1/2)

    Transparency beats (8=2^3) periodically circling reciprocAI frequencies of Glass Go.

    396=44+352=4*(11+88)=4*(81+18)=4*(73+26)=4*9801/9/11
    352=11*2^5=4/5*(232+208)=44*8
    584=2*396-208=232+352=73*8
    232=29*8

    Well-Hidden New Meric MethODs

    “People will obviously ask questions related to climate change, but we simply can’t answer that at this point.”

    15=5/8*(232-208)=(290-260)/2=(72+73)-(72+73-15)
    290=260+5/4*(232-208)=2*(72+73)=5*(73-15)
    260=290-5/4*(232-208)=2*(72+73-15)
    232=8/5*(72+73)=4*(73-15)
    208=8*26=(44-36)*(44-18)=8*(72+73-15)/5=(73-72+15)/2*(73+72-15)/5=13*(73-72+15)=13/22*352
    146=396/2-208/4=2*73=164-18=396-232-18=290-2*72=260-2*(72-15)
    73=290/2-72=260/2-72+15=5/8*208-72+15=5/8*232-72=396/4-208/8
    72=290/2-73=260/2-73+15=5/8*208-73+15=5/8*232-73
    352=22*(73-72+15)=22/13*208

    DCoys Awaiting No.1

    “Eye was a will O last night in a dream
    Eye bent down over a clear running stream
    Eyes Ang. EU the song that √(Φ-φ) heard up above
    There’s No. thing left to do but go….”
    “Craze e on EU” Heart

    2.71827962694045=log_φφ (2Φ√√(3*5*7*11*13))
    2.71828182845905=e
    -0.0000809893432246772=%error

    With no margin 4 error EU’ll due better than craze e.

    3.14159519794814=(log_(log_φφ (2Φ√√(3*5*7*11*13))) ((18*22)^4-104)) / √58
    3.14159265358979=π
    0.0000809894416024847=%error

    With zero air roar calculation We can ease ill E stable lies peace buy stable piece 4 just revelation ‘n’ O revolution.

    EU don’t need every last member expressing their deep pest love.
    2:1 will suffice 4 minimally understanding

    “Eur. lyin’ solo…. silly fools made 4 the western pools
    Smile: Like the Sun…. know right ‘n’ O wrong, sellin’ a song
    and if the real thing don’t do the trick….
    ….OOOOO Bhara’coup duh
    — Heart “Barracuda”

    Dynamic Stability UKnow eπφ need to weight 4 No.1.

    3.14159265358979=(log_e ((2*146+208/2)^4-2/5*260)) / √(290/5)
    3.14159265358979=π
    0=%error JEV e pi phi knead

    Mayan Os arose LONG BE 4 Ramanujan, Seidelmann, Conway, and Bhargava.

    2.71828182845905=((352+44)^4-(396-2*146))^(1/π/√(73-15))
    2.71828182845905=e
    0=%error JEV epiphini

    Peace-by-piece revelation 4 no revolution.

  8. oldbrew says:

    INDIA HAS 150 MILLION DRIVERS BUT ONLY 8,000 WANT ELECTRIC CARS
    Date: 06/10/19 Bloomberg

    The Kona sells for about $35,000 while the average Indian earns about $2,000 a year. No wonder barely more than 8,000 EVs were sold in India in the past six years.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/india-has-150-million-drivers-but-only-8000-indians-want-electric-cars/

    Electric tuk-tuks seem to be popular…
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_rickshaw

  9. oldbrew says:

    OCTOBER 7, 2019
    Saturn surpasses Jupiter after the discovery of 20 new moons—and you can help name them
    by NASA

    https://phys.org/news/2019-10-saturn-surpasses-kupiter-discovery-moonsand.html

    Video: name that Moon…

  10. oldbrew says:

    OCTOBER 9, 2019
    Humans will not ‘migrate’ to other planets, Nobel winner says

    Nobel prize winner Michel Mayor says the idea of humans living on another planet is ‘completely crazy’

    Humans will never migrate to a planet outside of Earth’s solar system because it would take far too long to get there, Swiss Nobel laureate Michel Mayor said Wednesday.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-10-humans-migrate-planets-nobel-winner.html

    Bad news for the sci-fi industry 😢

  11. oldbrew says:

    Source: NO EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE
    — J. KAUPPINEN AND P. MALMI [2019]
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf
    = = =
    From Ned Nikolov on Twitter:
    This is how a properly scaled temperature graph for Greenland looks like according to several vetted sources. Greenland has been cooling for 3,000 years! The warm spike of the past 130 years is part of high-frequency fluctuations, which have occurred many times in the past. [bold added]

  12. oldbrew says:

    OCTOBER 11, 2019
    NASA launches satellite to explore where air meets space

    The ionosphere is the charged part of the upper atmosphere extending several hundred miles (kilometers) up. It’s in constant flux as space weather bombards it from above and Earth weather from below, sometimes disrupting radio communications.

    “This protected layer, it’s the top of our atmosphere. It’s our frontier with space,” said NASA’s heliophysics division director, Nicola Fox.

    Fox said there’s too much going on in this region to be caused by just the sun. Hurricanes, tornadoes and other extreme weather conditions on Earth are also adding energy, she noted.

    The more scientists know, the better spacecraft and astronauts can be protected in orbit through improved forecasting.

    The refrigerator-size Icon satellite will study the airglow formed from gases in the ionosphere and also measure the charged environment right around the 360-mile-high (580-kilometer-high) spacecraft.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-10-nasa-satellite-explore-air-space.html

  13. oldbrew says:

    Blackout problems for Californians

    America’s most “environmentally conscious” state got a harsh lesson in electrical engineering when many of the tens of thousands of people hit by this week’s blackout learned the hard way that solar installations don’t keep the lights on during a power outage.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Unprecedented-Blackouts-And-6-Gasoline-Californias-Energy-Crisis.html

    ELECTRIC-CAR OWNERS HARD HIT BY MASSIVE CALIFORNIA POWER SHUTDOWN
    Date: 12/10/19

    Nearly a million Californians are now without power as the electric company deliberately shut it off this week, fearing high winds would spark wildfire.
    . . .
    Weeks can be a long wait if you’re looking at a Model 3 in your garage with a drained battery, no electrical power to charge it, and the closest grocery store with power 80 miles away.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/electric-car-owners-hard-hit-by-massive-california-power-shutdown/

    Maybe a friend or neighbour with a ‘gas’ powered vehicle can help 😐

  14. oldbrew says:

    NO EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT
    ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE
    J. KAUPPINEN AND P. MALMI [June 2019]

    In Figure 2 we see the observed global temperature anomaly (red) and global low cloud cover changes (blue). These experimental observations indicate that 1 % increase of the low cloud cover fraction decreases the temperature by 0.11°C. This number is in very good agreement with the theory given in the papers [3,2, 4].

    Using this result we are able to present the natural temperature anomaly by multiplying the changes of the low cloud cover by −0.11°C/%. This natural contribution (blue) is shown in Figure 3 superimposed on the observed temperature anomaly (red). As we can see there is no room for the contribution of greenhouse gases i.e. anthropogenic forcing within this experimental accuracy.

    Even though the monthly temperature anomaly is very noisy it is easy to notice a couple of decreasing periods in the increasing trend of the temperature. This behavior cannot be explained by the monotonically increasing concentration of CO2 and it seems to be far beyond the accuracy of the climate models. [bold added]

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

  15. oldbrew says:

    You can blame almost anything on Brexit…

    Brexit uncertainty ‘is delaying hundreds of innovative energy projects’
    https://www.energylivenews.com/2019/10/15/brexit-uncertainty-is-delaying-hundreds-of-innovative-energy-projects/

  16. Ian Wilson says:

    Modified post to get arround bug.

    oldbrew,

    You asked about the connection between the 243-year Transit of Venus cycle and the 19-year Metonic cycle. Here is my musing on this topic. Remember to think of the lunar alignments as sliding resonances.

    The Metonic cycle of 235 Synodic months marks the return of the same phase of the Moon to the same point in the Tropical (seasonal) year.

    19 tropical years = 6,939.6016043 days
    235 synodic months (lunar phase) = 6,939.6883805 days
    254 sidereal months (lunar orbits) = 6,939.702148 days
    255 draconic months (lunar nodes) = 6,939.116355 days.

    It is made up of a sequence of close alignments once every:

    4 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 4 years = 19 years [Note the actual spacing is 19/5 years = 3.8 years]

    The three- and four-year spacings are significant since:

    A. 13 x 19 tropical years = 247 years = 243 + 4 years

    or talking in terms of three- and four-year spacings

    (13 x 3 years) + (52 x 4 years) = 247 years = 243 + 4 years

    Hence,

    (13 x 3 years) + (51 x 4 years) = 243 years

    B. There is a precise long-term alignment between the Perigean New/Full Moon Cycle and the seasons every 59.75 tropical years. These alignments occur every:

    59.75 years
    119.5 years
    179.25 years
    239.0 years = 243 – 4 years

    Thus, precise alignment of the Perigean New/Full cycle with the seasons and the precise alignment of the lunar phase cycle with the season both have alignments that are:

    +/- 4 years of 243 years – which the current length of the Transit cycle of Venus.

  17. oldbrew says:

    Thanks Ian W. May have something else on the Metonic cycle soon.

  18. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    Here is a graph that may help explain the close alignments of 243-year +/- 4 year Venus Transit cycle with:

    A. the Lunar Synodic (phase) cycle and the Tropical Year such that;

    13 x 19 years = 247 years = 243 + 4 years

    B. the 31/62-year Perigean New/Full Moon cycle with the Tropical Years such that;

    5 x 59.75 years = 239 years = 243 – 4 years

    [N.B. the 31/64-year Perigean New/Full Moon tidal cycle results from the long-term synchronization between the lunar Synodic month; the period of precession of lunar line-of-apse, with respect to the stars (= 8.850580(5) tropical years), and the tropical year.]

  19. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    Here is a little speculation about the cause of Ice-Ages on the Earth that comes from the paper that produced the graph in my previous post.

    “Finally, there is one speculative extrapolation that could encourage others to further investigate this close synchronization on much longer time scales. If these future investigations show that the long-term residual drift rate of -7 hours over 3000 years is valid over much longer time scales then this close synchronization may highlight a mechanism that might be responsible for the Earth’s 100,000-year Ice-Age cycle. This comes from the fact that the strongest perigean spring tides would be in close synchronization with (i.e. ±halfadayeithersideof)thedateoftheEarth’sSolstice (on or about December 21st) for a period (24/7) × 3000 years ≈10,300 years.

    In addition, this close synchronization would be re-established itself after the 31/62 peak tidal pattern drifted back through the tropical calendar by~9.7days(i.e. the average vertical spacing between sequences in figs 12a & b) such that after ((9.7 × 24) / 7) × 3000 years ≈ 99,800 years. Hence, the close synchronization discovered in this study lasts for ~10,000 years, with each period of close synchronization being separated from its predecessor by ~100,000 years. This is very reminiscent of the interglacial/glacial period that is characteristic of the Earth’s recent Ice-Age cycles.”

    Ref: Wilson, I.R.G., Are the Strongest Lunar Perigean Spring Tides Commensurate with the Transit Cycle of Venus?, Pattern Recogn. Phys., 2(2), 75–93, 2014

  20. oldbrew says:

    Ian – re.: 13 x 19 years = 247 years = 243 + 4 years

    Of course the ~243 years = 8 x 19 Venus-Earth conjunctions.

  21. oldbrew says:

    Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation
    A guest post by Nic Lewis

    ‘The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading or definitely incorrect. Perhaps most importantly, they say in the Abstract that “The real-world variations mean that historical EffCS [effective climate sensitivity] underestimates CO2 EffCS by 30% when considering the entire historical period.” But they do not indicate that this finding relates only to effective climate sensitivity in GCMs, and then only to when they are driven by one particular observational sea surface temperature dataset.

    However, in this article I will focus on one particular statistical issue, where the claim made in the paper can readily be proven wrong without needing to delve into the details of GCM simulations.’

    https://climateaudit.org/2019/10/17/gregory-et-al-2019-unsound-claims-about-bias-in-climate-feedback-and-climate-sensitivity-estimation/
    – – –
    Climate sensitivity is a fake metric IMO. But Lewis is doing a good job exposing half-baked biased ‘research’ as pseudoscience.

  22. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew

    Ian Wilson’s fig 2 above is ‘disturbing’. Note that 243+243= 486 which is half an Eddy cycle. Events in the Holocene occurred at near that interval.

    A quick/hurried post this, still have to look into its meaning (if my grey matter allows).

  23. oldbrew says:

    Scientists discover fractal patterns in a quantum material
    October 17, 2019 by Jennifer Chu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    “The domain pattern was hard to decipher at first, but after analyzing the statistics of domain distribution, we realized it had a fractal behavior,” says Riccardo Comin, assistant professor of physics at MIT. “It was completely unexpected—it was serendipity.”

    https://m.phys.org/news/2019-10-scientists-fractal-patterns-quantum-material.html

    Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-018-0328-0

    Mandelbrot set – fractal theory.
    http://mathworld.wolfram.com/MandelbrotSet.html

  24. oldmanK says:

    Came across this this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VPfZ_XzisU

    Looks like Peter Warlow in “The Reversing Earth” might be correct after all.
    And Herodotus – “In this time they said that the sun had moved four times from his accustomed place of rising, and where he now sets he had thence twice had his rising, and in the place from whence he now rises he had twice had his setting;”

  25. A C Osborn says:

    Oldbrew & Rog.
    This is fascinating real Science at work.

  26. oldbrew says:

    OCTOBER 18, 2019
    Atmospheric pressure impacts greenhouse gas emissions from leaky oil and gas wells

    Fluctuations in atmospheric pressure can heavily influence how much natural gas leaks from wells below the ground surface at oil and gas sites, according to new University of British Columbia research. However, current monitoring strategies do not take this phenomenon into account, and therefore may be under- or over-estimating the true magnitude of gas emissions.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-10-atmospheric-pressure-impacts-greenhouse-gas.html
    – – –
    Published: 01 October 2019
    Barometric-pumping controls fugitive gas emissions from a vadose zone natural gas release

    Conclusions

    The frequency, amplitude and duration of barometric-pressure cycles directly controlled the magnitude and spatiotemporal variability of CH4 effluxes from a natural-gas release into a deep unsaturated zone. During periods of increasing barometric pressure, CH4 effluxes declined, at times below the detection limit. However, when barometric pressure decreased, CH4 effluxes rapidly increased, at times greater than 20-fold in less than 24 hours.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50426-3

  27. Ian Wilson says:

    Modified to get around WordPress bug.

    Here is an interesting 2015 paper that claims that there is a connection between the lunisolar (atmospheric) tidal modulation of the Equatorial Electric-Jet (EEJ) and Sudden Stratospheric
    Warming (SSW) events.

    T. A. Siddiqui, H. Lühr, C. Stolle, and J. Park, Relation between stratospheric sudden warming and the lunar effect on the equatorial electrojet based on Huancayo recordings. Annales Geophysicae 33 (2015), pp. 235-243.

    Abstract. It has been known for many decades that the lunar tidal influence in the equatorial electro-jet (EEJ) is noticeably enhanced during Northern Hemisphere winters. Recent literature has discussed the role of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events behind the enhancement of lunar tides and the findings suggest a positive correlation between the lunar tidal amplitude and lower stratospheric parameters (zonal mean air temperature and zonal mean zonal wind) during SSW events. The positive correlation raises the question of whether an inverse approach could also be developed which makes it possible to deduce the occurrence of SSW events before their direct observations (before 1952) from the amplitude of the lunar tides. This study presents an analysis technique based on the phase of the semi-monthly lunar tide to determine the lunar tidal modulation of the EEJ. A statistical approach using the superposed epoch analysis is also carried out to formulate a relation between the EEJ tidal amplitude and lower stratospheric parameters. Using these results, we have estimated a threshold value for the tidal wave power that could be used to identify years with SSW events from magnetic field observations.

  28. Ian Wilson says:

    Here is an earlier (2014) paper establishing the lunisolar modulation of the EEJ.

    Gasperini, F., and J. M. Forbes (2014), Lunar-solar interactions in the equatorial electrojet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3026–3031, doi:10.1002/2014GL059294.

    Abstract:

    To first order, the ground magnetic signature of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) reflects the height integral of J = 𝜎E, where 𝜎 is conductivity and E represents some combination of the global dynamo-generated electric field and the electric field due to local winds. Day-to-day variations in the conductivity are strongly controlled by the solar flux, while E depends on solar and lunar tides, planetary waves, and the disturbance dynamo. In this study, we demonstrate how complexity is introduced into the EEJ due to the interaction between lunar tide variability in the equatorial electric field and solar-driven variability in the E region conductivity. Toward this end, we analyze magnetometer data from the Huancayo observatory both in the time and frequency domain. We present results for the year 1990, and we show that 86% of the variance in the EEJ is due to the lunar-solar interaction.

  29. oldbrew says:

    IW – the electrojet is new to me but will try to look into it further.

    Recent studies have focused on the lunar-solar interaction in the EEJ. It was demonstrated that complexity is introduced into the EEJ due to the interaction between lunar tide variability in the equatorial electric field and solar-driven variability in the E-region conductivity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equatorial_electrojet

  30. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    The Youtube video that you have posted shows the east-to-west movement of the Equatorial Electro-Jet (EEJ) along the equator. The motion of the jet tracks the 24-hour movement of thermal tides in the atmosphere that peak at 12-noon local time (note that at 12 UT the EEJ is directly on the Greenwich Meridian). The EEJ is tracked by monitoring the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field at the Earth’s surface. The actual EEJ is at an altitude of roughly 100 km in the D layer of the Ionosphere.

    The papers that I site, use measurements of the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field at two stations near each other on the Earth’s Equator. They difference teh observations at each of the stations to subtract out the atmospheric thermal (i.e. solar) tidal component of the EEJ leaving the component that is influenced by the lunar atmospheric tides.

  31. oldbrew says:

    IW – peak at 12-noon local time – suggests the solar input, since the Moon doesn’t run on a 24-hour clock?

    I need to look into this more!

  32. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    The Sun plays a major role in driving the EEJ in its daily motion from east to west due to its thermal heating of the atmosphere. However, if you subtract this motion out you are left with an east to west a west to east modulation by the lunar tides (which is moving in the opposite direction). It is this modulation that is connected to the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) events via the Brewer Circulation.

  33. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew, Sorry, that should have read:

    The Sun plays a major role in driving the EEJ in its daily motion from east to west due to its thermal heating of the atmosphere. However, if you subtract this motion out you are left with a west to east modulation by the lunar tides (which is moving in the opposite direction). It is this modulation that is connected to the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) events via the Brewer Circulation.

  34. Ian Wilson says:

    Here are two papers by a former colleague of mine who is now living in British Columbia, Canada. If you forgive the fact that he is a committed global alarmist he is open to discussion of a wide range of possibilities. I have just learned about these two papers today.

    Treloar, N.C. A Proposed Exogenous Cause of the Global Temperature Hiatus. Climate, 2019, 7, 31.

    and

    Treloar, N.C. Deconstructing Global Temperature Anomalies: An Hypothesis, Climate 2017, 5(4), 83

    https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/5/4/83

    and https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/2/31

  35. oldbrew says:

    The second Treloar paper is talking about the well-known 60-year cycle by the look of it – the ‘trigon’ i.e. 3 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions returning to nearly the same position.

  36. oldbrew says:

    OCTOBER 18, 2019

    Image: Hubble snags starry galaxy
    by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

    Spiral galaxies like NGC 4380 are common in the universe. These colossal collections of stars, often numbering in the hundreds of billions, are shaped like a flat disk, sometimes with a rounded bulge in the center. Graceful spiral arms outlined by dark lanes of dust wind around the bulging core, which glows brightly and has the highest concentration of stars in the galaxy.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-10-image-hubble-snags-starry-galaxy.html

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    Our Freedom To Sea

    Well-hidden insights win over know democracy.

    =
    The special case n = 2 is the traditional Fibonacci series yielding the golden section φ = 1 + 1/φ.

    The above formulas for the ratio hold even for n-nacci series generated from arbitrary numbers. The limit of this ratio is 2 as n increases. An “infinacci” sequence, if one could be described, would after an infinite number of zeroes yield the sequence

    […, 0, 0, 1,] 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, …

    which are simply the powers of two.
    =
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalizations_of_Fibonacci_numbers#Fibonacci_numbers_of_higher_order

    Threw avangard corners We sharply whip AIlocation 4 real eyable locAI rolls in globAI peace-by-piece replacing primoriAI western DCoys with better east turn bets.

    1.59868955949705 = (1.00001743371442)*(0.615197263396975) / (1.00001743371442 – 0.615197263396975)
    0.380883104686082 = (1.00001743371442)*(0.615197263396975) / (1.00001743371442 + 0.615197263396975)
    0.761766209372164 = (1.00001743371442)*(0.615197263396975)/((1.00001743371442+0.615197263396975)/2)

    Φnd ∞nacci powers of 2 buy 4 reign art.

    0.799344779748523 = 1.59868955949705 / 2
    0.399672389874261 = 0.799344779748523 / 2

    0.190441552343041 = 0.380883104686082 / 2
    0.0952207761715205 = 0.190441552343041 / 2

    Necessity’s the best universAI mother disk eye zing globAI peace with locAI piece.

    0.648846557532906 = (11.8626151546089)*(0.615197263396975) / (11.8626151546089 – 0.615197263396975)
    0.584866011394422 = (11.8626151546089)*(0.615197263396975) / (11.8626151546089 + 0.615197263396975)

    “IT’s the yen dove the world as ‘We’en O IT, ‘N’ K nife-feel fine$$$…” — REM

    1.0920796543202 = (11.8626151546089)*(1.00001743371442) / (11.8626151546089 – 1.00001743371442)
    0.922270140470534 = (11.8626151546089)*(1.00001743371442) / (11.8626151546089 + 1.00001743371442)

    The true west grains of climatic art withOUT so well -mixed artificiAI bullIDevil logic orient won mathematically admissible course to C 4 O shun in R at mosphere.

    1.59868955949705 = (1.0920796543202)*(0.648846557532906) / (1.0920796543202 – 0.648846557532906)
    0.407020193867456 = (1.0920796543202)*(0.648846557532906) / (1.0920796543202 + 0.648846557532906)
    0.814040387734913 = (1.0920796543202)*(0.648846557532906)/((1.0920796543202+0.648846557532906)/2)

    Left in the dark with frankly obvious clues, the true west path — never mind the imagined one — is walked with only the stay blessed few clearly in the light.

    ⌊ 1.59868955949705 / 0.814040387734913 ⌉ = ⌊1.96389464648731⌉ = 2
    1.59868955949705 / 2 = 0.799344779748523
    i.e. harmonic of 1.59868955949705 nearest 0.814040387734913 is 1.59868955949705 / 2 = 0.799344779748523
    44.2784629967671 = (0.814040387734913)*(0.799344779748523) / (0.814040387734913 – 0.799344779748523)

    x^2 – nx – 1 = O’well-hidden fields metal lic means.

    “Eye min. the bright light but eyestill field darkness:
    give me sum O that…” — “Heart break back Frank Walker

    ⌊ 1.59868955949705 / 0.407020193867456 ⌉ = ⌊3.92778929297461⌉ = 4
    1.59868955949705 / 4 = 0.399672389874261
    i.e. harmonic of 1.59868955949705 nearest 0.407020193867456 is 1.59868955949705 / 4 = 0.399672389874261
    22.1392314983835 = (0.407020193867456)*(0.399672389874261) / (0.407020193867456 – 0.399672389874261)

    From the sun peace-by-piece ITease AIways 4 the 73rd best rock.

    ⌊ 22.1392314983835 / 0.799344779748523 ⌉ = ⌊27.6967236908067⌉ = 28
    22.1392314983835 / 28 = 0.790686839227984
    i.e. harmonic of 22.1392314983835 nearest 0.799344779748523 is 22.1392314983835 / 28 = 0.790686839227984
    73.0002008969005 = (0.799344779748523)*(0.790686839227984) / (0.799344779748523 – 0.790686839227984)

    We C 4/5 of the western heard R unified in quadrupolar ignorance. The stablest identity links only 1/5 to calculation of long run dipolar terms.

    “Measure 4 measure
    gottA Iet EU No.
    We’R together
    brake kin knit down
    brake kin O V-E R EU
    app. pens only once
    ‘n’ this swan’s IT
    break kin knit up
    pin tool IT AI pieces
    IT’s such a serp’rise
    that tie don’t real lies”
    — “eye love view wall”
    54-4O

    Drunk kin west turn knights C-in-the-dark synomnipanoptic lamp posts, 4 lost keys R seen clearly know-wear else buy the well-masked peace-by-piece emergence of panomnisynaptic art.

    ⌊ 44.2784629967671 / 1.59868955949705 ⌉ = ⌊27.6967236908067⌉ = 28
    44.2784629967671 / 28 = 1.58137367845597
    i.e. harmonic of 44.2784629967671 nearest 1.59868955949705 is 44.2784629967671 / 28 = 1.58137367845597
    146.000401793801 = (1.59868955949705)*(1.58137367845597) / (1.59868955949705 – 1.58137367845597)

    ⌊ 44.2784629967671 / 0.399672389874261 ⌉ = ⌊110.786894763227⌉ = 111
    44.2784629967671 / 111 = 0.398905072042947
    i.e. harmonic of 44.2784629967671 nearest 0.399672389874261 is 44.2784629967671 / 111 = 0.398905072042947
    207.777451493904 = (0.399672389874261)*(0.398905072042947) / (0.399672389874261 – 0.398905072042947)

    ⌊ 44.2784629967671 / 0.761766209372164 ⌉ = ⌊58.126052917549⌉ = 58
    44.2784629967671 / 58 = 0.763421775806329
    i.e. harmonic of 44.2784629967671 nearest 0.761766209372164 is 44.2784629967671 / 58 = 0.763421775806329
    351.268846907657 = (0.763421775806329)*(0.761766209372164) / (0.763421775806329 – 0.761766209372164)

    ⌊ 351.268846907657 / 44.2784629967671 ⌉ = ⌊7.93317615684411⌉ = 8
    351.268846907657 / 8 = 43.9086058634571
    i.e. harmonic of 351.268846907657 nearest 44.2784629967671 is 351.268846907657 / 8 = 43.9086058634571
    5256.63940172076 = (44.2784629967671)*(43.9086058634571) / (44.2784629967671 – 43.9086058634571)

    ⌊ 44.2784629967671 / 0.0952207761715205 ⌉ = ⌊465.008423340392⌉ = 465
    44.2784629967671 / 465 = 0.0952225010683163
    i.e. harmonic of 44.2784629967671 nearest 0.0952207761715205 is 44.2784629967671 / 465 = 0.0952225010683163
    5256.63940169013 = (0.0952225010683163)*(0.0952207761715205) / (0.0952225010683163 – 0.0952207761715205)

    ⌊ 146.000401793801 / 44.2784629967671 ⌉ = ⌊3.29732316599293⌉ = 3
    146.000401793801 / 3 = 48.6668005979337
    i.e. harmonic of 146.000401793801 nearest 44.2784629967671 is 146.000401793801 / 3 = 48.6668005979337
    491.049532942454 = (48.6668005979337)*(44.2784629967671) / (48.6668005979337 – 44.2784629967671)

    491.049532942514 = (207.777451493904)*(146.000401793801) / (207.777451493904 – 146.000401793801)

    R Freedom to C

    The BRItest messages R in the numbers only 4 those who choose to C.

  38. A C Osborn says:

    The latest Video update on the Safire project.
    Fascinating science being done.

  39. oldbrew says:

    Sounds familiar…

    OCTOBER 23, 2019
    A crisis in cosmology: New data suggests the universe expanding more rapidly than believed
    by W. M. Keck Observatory

    https://phys.org/news/2019-10-crisis-cosmology-universe-rapidly-believed.html
    – – –
    So different parts of the universe should be expanding in different directions – implying a central point somewhere?

  40. oldbrew says:

    Oct. 18, 2019
    PG&E CEO Says It Could Impose Blackouts in California for a Decade

    Bill Johnson makes the disclosure in a hearing at which California officials blast PG&E’s shutoffs this month

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/pg-e-ceo-says-it-could-impose-blackouts-in-california-for-a-decade-11571438206

  41. oldbrew says:

    Could be a monster…

  42. Ian Wilson says:

    Modified to get around WordPress bug

    Norman Treloars 2017 paper on zonal (Z) and meridional (M) ) tidal forcing terms is in close agreement with my own findings.

    He uses a scaled accumulated tidal Z-M difference to describe the tidal forcing. It is the tidal zonal-meridional analog of the Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI). The forcing function has turning points at:

    1872 – 1902 Meridional regime – decreasing GMST (Global Mean Surface Temperature)
    1902 – 1934 Zonal regime – increasing GMST
    1934 – 1966 Meridional regime – decreasing GMST
    1966 – 1997 Zonal regime – increasing GMST

    He identifies an 8 year lag between the turning points in the lunar forcing terms and the actual increase and decreases in GMST. Hence:

    1872 goes to 1880 – start in global cooling
    1902 goes to 1910 – start in global heating
    1934 goes to 1942 – start in global cooling
    1966 goes to 1974 – start in global heating
    1997 goes to 2005 – start in global cooling

    This almost exactly the same as my 31-year Perigean New/Full Moon epochs which I find governs
    the onset times for El Nino events and which, I believe, leads to changes in the GMST temperature roughly 10 years later:

    1870 to 1901 – Full Epoch Moon – leads to cooling starting in 1880
    1901 to 1932 – New Moon epoch – leads to heating starting in 1911
    1932 to 1963 – Full Moon Epoch – leads to cooling starting in 1942
    1963 to 1994 – New Moon Epoch – leads to heating starting 1973
    1994 to 2025 – Full Moon Epoch – leads to cooling starting in 2004

    Perhaps Treloar’s most important conclusion is that the lunar forcing precedes the observed changes in the changes in LOD by 2 years, the changes in ACI by 4 years, and the changes in GMST by 8 years. Strongly implying that the changes in the zonal and meridional lunar tidal forcing is driving almost all of the observed natural climate cycles.

    This is a rough agreement with a conclusion from my 2011 paper which found that, if you look closely
    at the peaks in the deviation of Earth’s LOD from its long term trend and the peaks in the PDO index
    shown in figure 8 of this paper, you will notice that the peaks in deviation of LOD take place 8 – 10 years earlier (on average) than the peaks in the PDO index, suggesting a causal link.

    https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2015/04/will-pdo-turn-positive-in-next-few-years.html

    We essentially agree on everything except the underlying slow rise in long-term GMST.

    Treloar attributes almost all of this rise to GHG (CO2) warming.

    In contrast, I claim that it mostly due to the change in the rate of efficiency with which the Earth warms and cools that is determined by the ratio of El Nino to La Nina events. I believe that this ratio is controlled by the 31/62-year Perigean New/Full Moon cycle. I think that there is a contribution from GHGs but I believe that it is small.

    Wilson, I.R.G., 2013, Are Global Mean Temperatures Significantly Affected by Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides? Energy & Environment, Vol 24, No. 3 & 4, pp. 497 – 508

    http://multi-science.atypon.com/doi/pdf/10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.497

    We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one topic.

  43. oldbrew says:

    Treloar attributes almost all of this rise to GHG (CO2) warming.

    1) long wave infrared radiation can’t penetrate the oceans
    2) what about cloud cover albedo variation?
    3) what about convection, which means there is no ‘greenhouse’?

  44. oldbrew says:

    Labour to back early general election
    13 minutes ago

    The UK looks set for a December general election after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn announced his party was ready to fight the “most radical campaign ever”.

    Mr Corbyn said his condition of taking a no-deal Brexit off the table had now been met after the EU agreed to extend the deadline until 31 January 2020.
    . . .
    MPs begin to debate the bill for an early election at 13:30 GMT.

    The government is aiming to complete all of its Commons stages by the end of the day – a process that normally takes several days.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50221856
    – – –
    Looking almost certain now. No doubt all parties will accept the result 😎

    1630 Hold on. Row over voting rights could kill the whole thing.

    Downing Street said extending voting rights in this way would delay any election by as much as six months.

    They would then ditch the bill instead. But dep. speaker may not select that amendment anyway, meaning it fails.

    1810 Those amendments not selected. Only arguing about the date now.

    December 12 it is.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-news-live-boris-johnson-to-ask-mps-to-back-december-date-at-the-polls-again-after-a4272846.html

  45. oldbrew says:

    Entomologist: badly planned tree-planting (for anti-CO2 ideology) may lead to more wildfires and/or loss of bio-diversity.

    Monotonic deep forests are biologically poor but also unstable, especially if they’re composed of inappropriate species (typically spruces at low altitudes).

    https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/10/czech-entomologist-on-ecology-climate.html

  46. Ian Wilson says:

    David A.,

    They are neither a rare site nor a rare event. Equatorial Kelvin waves are a form of gravity wave that is regularly seen moving (from west-to-east) along the Earth’s equator. The lack of Coriolis forces at the Equator leads to it act as a wave-guide for these types of gravity waves.

    The Equatorial Kelvin waves can be either convectively-coupled (as in the case of Madden Julian Oscillations – MJOs) or convectively un-coupled.

    I believe that they are generated by the bi-monthly interaction that comes about because of the relative movement of the lunar tidal bulge with respect to the semi-diurnal pressure minimum in the tropical atmosphere.

    You might find the following two posts at my site interesting.

    A lunar tidal mechanism for generating Equatorial Kelvin waves

    https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/09/a-lunar-tidal-mechanism-for-generating.html

    The lunar tidal Model (4 parts)

    https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-lunar-tidal-model-part-4.html

  47. David A says:

    @Ian, thank you! I knew this is an ideal site to inquire information from.

  48. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew and David A,

    You might want to look at the following YouTube video – it raises a few very important points and questions [also, see my comment below the video].

    Balloons in the Air: Understanding weather and climate

    HT/ to Neville over at WUWT October 28, 2019 at 11:58 pm

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/28/sour-milk-sourer-grapes-and-the-unnatural-greenhouse-effect/

  49. oldbrew says:

    I ‘borrowed’ this from Ian W’s weather balloons video, having viewed the lapse rate part of it (~54 mins. to the end). NB they agree the average lapse rate is about right, but quantify the variations with graphs based on the balloon data. Of course the ‘direction of travel’ of the lapse rate is not affected. They agree the Standard Atmosphere version of it is broadly true but the lines are an over-simplification.

    However in the end the modellers would still only be reducing their errors, not getting rid of them IMO – due to the underlying ‘greenhouse’ assumptions in the code.

    The part about the phase change (~58 mins. in the video) looked interesting, but I’ll probably have to look at the rest of the video to try and understand it better 🤔

  50. oldbrew says:

    Also…

    [highlights added]

  51. oldbrew says:

    UK PM Johnson says government will make fracking announcement shortly
    LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters)

    https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-fracking-johnson/uk-pm-johnson-says-government-will-make-fracking-announcement-shortly-idUSS8N26807P
    – – –
    Curtains?

  52. oldbrew says:

    Golden Ratio Observed In Human Skulls
    https://archaeologynewsnetwork.blogspot.com/2019/10/golden-ratio-observed-in-human-skulls.html

    Not just the skull…although the siting of the lines could be questioned.

  53. oldbrew says:

    Climategate: Ten Years Later
    NOV 1, 2019

    This month marks the tenth anniversary of “Climategate” – the release of thousands of emails to and from climate scientists who had been (and still are) collaborating and colluding to create a man-made climate crisis that exists in their minds and computer models, but not in the real world.

    The scandal should have ended climate catastrophism.

    Instead, it was studiously buried by politicians, scientists, activists and crony capitalists, who will rake in trillions of dollars from the exaggerations and fakery, while exempting themselves from the damage they are inflicting on everyday families.

    https://climatechangedispatch.com/climategate-ten-years-later/

  54. oldbrew says:

    Theory of ‘super El Niño’

    A Southern Hemisphere booster of super El Niño
    Li‐Ciao Hong LinHo Fei‐Fei Jin
    First published: 03 March 2014

    Evidence is presented to delineate a unique feature shared by three super El Niño events recorded in recent years (1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1997/1998): a distinct transverse cell mainly consists of an anomalous surface high in southern Australia, enhanced convection over the ENSO regime in the central equatorial Pacific, and a pattern of upper‐level Rossby wave source in between. The transverse cell is pronounced in the super El Niño development phase during the boreal summer/austral winter. It is featured with the lower‐level equatorward wind anomalies along northeast Australia, which can bring southern cold surge thus more westerly wind burst events to strength the El Niño. Thus, this cell is hypothesized to serve as a booster to facilitate the runaway growth of a super El Niño.
    . . .
    The Australian high, a key ingredient of the SHB*, intensifies about 2 months before a super El Niño develops.
    [*Southern Hemisphere booster]

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059370
    – – –
    Another super El Niño occurred around 2016.

  55. oldbrew says:

    Joe Postma has a pop at the existence of any plausible CO2 theory.
    https://climateofsophistry.com/2019/10/19/the-thing-without-the-thing/

  56. oldbrew says:

    Interesting radio flux prediction from NOAA here…can it be right?

    F10.7 CM RADIO EMISSIONS
    The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. [bold added]

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions

  57. Ian Wilson says:

    Over the last week (02 – 09 Nov 2019), the trade winds have died over the western half the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This has been caused westerly wind bursts (WWBs) produced by a strong Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) just to the North of New Guinea.

    https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/11/keeping-track-of-latest-mjo-event_9.html

  58. oldbrew says:

    Re: a strong Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) just to the North of New Guinea – IW, above.

    Volcanoes of Papua New Guinea (67 volcanoes)

    The volcanoes of Papua New Guinea are found in 2 principal volcanic arcs, the 1000 km long Bismarck Arc stretching WNW-ESE at north of New Guinea and New Britain Island, from the north coast of New Guinea near the border with Indonesia, to Bougainville Island in the east. This arc is a result of the northward subducting Solomon Sea beneath the Bismarck Sea plate. [bold added]

    https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/papua-new-guinea.html

  59. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    Interesting post about volcanoes in New Guinea, however, they have zilch to do with the current phenomenon. Just like in early September, an MJO propagated across the Indian ocean and passed through the Maritime province (i.e. Indonesia), where it started pumping westerly wind bursts (WWBs) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is these WWBs that killed the Trade winds caused by the Walker circulation.

  60. Ian Wilson says:

    There is one piece of telling evidence that links the collapse of the trade winds to the lunar tides.

    The following image shows a comparison between the current 1000 hPa wind map [10-11-2019 03:00 UTC – on the right] with the corresponding 1000 hPa wind map almost exactly 2.0 tropical months (= 54.6 days) earlier [17-09-2019 03:00 UTC – on the left] [N.B. This is a difference equivalent to 54.0 days].

    In addition (to within 4.0 hours) these images closely correspond to times when the sub-lunar point is crossing the Earth’s equator (moving from southwest to northeast along the lunar orbit), as shown in the next image.

  61. Ian Wilson says:

    Sorry, just experimenting with hypertext. It did not work.

    There is one piece of telling evidence that links the collapse of the trade winds to the lunar tides.

    The following image shows a comparison between the current 1000 hPa wind map [10-11-2019 03:00 UTC – on the right] with the corresponding 1000 hPa wind map almost exactly 2.0 tropical months (= 54.6 days) earlier [17-09-2019 03:00 UTC – on the left] [N.B. This is a difference equivalent to 54.0 days].

    In addition (to within 4.0 hours) these images closely correspond to times when the sub-lunar point is crossing the Earth’s equator (moving from southwest to northeast along the lunar orbit), as shown in the next image.

  62. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    I see your point about the New Guinea Highlands (which includes the volcanoes). The tallest mountains tower up to 15,000 feet and they are oriented roughly in an east-west direction. It’s just possible that they could amplify the effects of the Coriolis wave-guide that lies just to the north of New Guinea along the Equator. Maybe this helps the embedded equatorial Kelvin wave in the MJO to decouple and accelerate out across the equatorial Pacific ocean.

  63. oldbrew says:

    IW – I was also wondering where the heat generated by underwater volcanoes might go, and over what timescales.
    – – –
    New paper from Scafetta et al…

    Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models during 1980–2018
    by Scafetta, N.; Willson, R.C.; Lee, J.N.; Wu, D.L.
    Published: 1 November 2019

    From the abstract:
    The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/m2 reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/m2 from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since. [bold added]

    https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/21/2569

  64. oldbrew says:

    Climate Progress is Defunct (Joe Romm goes general)
    By Robert Bradley Jr. — November 4, 2019
    “Joe Romm’s for-the-moment, repeated exaggerations (“stunning” for the liked; “heads exploding” for the disliked) grew tiresome. Crying wolf for so long resulted in laryngitis, message-wise.”

    Nothing is forever. But if the “indispensible blog” for climate alarmism/forced energy transformation (per Thomas Friedman) is shut down in an age of virtually unlimited green funding and rampant climate media alarm, then something seems amiss.

    With its last post dated September 5th, there is no new content at ClimateProgress (2006–2019).

    https://www.masterresource.org/romm-joseph-climate-progress/climate-progress-defunct/

  65. oldbrew says:

    Researchers create solar energy system inspired by flowers’ light-finding ability
    Posted: November 12, 2019

    When sunlight shines at oblique or indirect angles, solar energy capture is almost fourfold in SunBOTs compared to solar panels

    https://dailybruin.com/2019/11/12/researchers-create-solar-energy-system-inspired-by-flowers-light-finding-ability/

  66. oldbrew says:

    EU begins legal action against UK for failing to select new commissioner
    14 November 2019

    The UK government wrote to the commission on Wednesday saying official pre-election guidance prevented it from making international appointments ahead of polling day on 12 December.

    https://www.lbcnews.co.uk/uk-news/eu-legal-action-uk-failing-select-commissioner/
    – – –
    EU doesn’t get that there’s a national election going on 🙄
    It’s called democracy…hello??

  67. oldbrew says:

    Jet-like spurts lend clue to a solar mystery: study
    Source: Xinhua | 2019-11-17

    WASHINGTON, Nov. 16 —An international team led by Chinese astronomers shed light on a mystery in solar physics: why temperatures in the Sun’s upper atmosphere are vastly hotter than its surface.

    The study published in this week’s Science journal showed that jet-like spicules erupted from the surface of the Sun may help heat the atmosphere to 200 to 500 times hotter than the roaring furnace below when those spicules emerged within minutes of the appearance of small magnetic flux around strong magnetic fields with opposite polarity.

    Using the Goode Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) in the United States, Tian Hui, a professor at Peking University, and his collaborators revealed in detail what appears to be a likely mechanism — jets of magnetized plasma, between 200 and 500 kilometers wide, spurt like geysers from the Sun’s upper atmosphere into the corona.

    “When magnetic fields with opposite polarities reconnect in the Sun’s lower atmosphere these jets of plasma are powerfully ejected,” said the paper’s coauthor Cao Wenda, BBSO’s director.

    This is the first time astronomers have seen direct evidence of how spicules are generated, according to the researchers.

    Also, their findings are echoed by images captured in the extreme ultraviolet spectrum by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft. The spacecraft’s observations showed that it is common for spicules to be heated to typical coronal temperatures.

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/17/c_138560881.htm

  68. oldbrew says:

    BBC is forced to pull episode of new David Attenborough show Seven Worlds One Planet from iPlayer over mistakes – including using the WRONG animal noises

    The South African episode of Seven Worlds One Planet has come under fire
    Experts say the BBC used the wrong audio and incorrectly identified some birds
    Broadcaster has apologised and is set to release re-edited version of the show

    By TERRI-ANN WILLIAMS FOR MAILONLINE
    17 November 2019

    It also used old footage from previous shoots.

    An expert who noticed the audio errors in the Seven Worlds One Planet documentary told The Times that the error was akin to a ‘Mini Cooper popping up in a period drama’.

    Dr Alexander Lees, who works as a senior biodiversity lecturer at Manchester Metropolitan University said the BBC ‘needed to pull their socks up’.

    ‘It’s a case of giving people the honest truth about what’s going on.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7694709/BBC-forced-pull-episode-new-David-Attenborough-Seven-Worlds-One-Planet-iPlayer.html

  69. oldbrew says:

    From the NOAA ENSO update 14/11/19

    The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

  70. oldbrew says:

    From Ned Nikolov on Twitter [click on image to enlarge]:

  71. oldbrew says:

    Article
    Open Access
    Published: 22 November 2019

    Overestimated climate warming and climate variability due to spatially homogeneous CO2 in climate modeling over the Northern Hemisphere since the mid-19th century

    Xuezhen Zhang, Xiaxiang Li, Deliang Chen, Huijuan Cui & Quansheng Ge

    These findings suggest that human contributions to climate warming and increased extreme events since the industrial revolution may be overestimated when using a spatially homogenous ACC.
    [ACC = the global atmospheric CO2 concentration]

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-53513-7#Abs1
    – – –
    Still obsessing about a trace gas, but shows up some problems with models.

  72. oldbrew says:

    Wikipedia’s Oxygen-18 entry says:
    In ice cores, mainly Arctic and Antarctic, the ratio of 18O to 16O (known as δ18O) can be used to determine the temperature of precipitation through time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen-18

    This graphic is in effect recording the Uranus-Neptune conjunctions every 171.4 years on average. The most recent one was in 1993 – see rightmost red arrow. The previous red arrow aligns with the U-N event of late 965 (derived from a solar simulator).

    Video…

  73. Paul Vaughan says:

    For the Ninety-Nine

    Major western faults R-open 4 ease-C exploit.

    396=4*99

    Politically ITease democraseize quadrupolar containment.

    J. Corbyn: “The Brexit crisis needs to be resolved but it must be done democratically.”
    “Labour stands not just for the 52% or the 48%, but for the 99%.”

    48 = ⌊48.3463987237698⌉
    48.3463987237698 = (11.0696157491918)*(9.0072695295456) / (11.0696157491918 – 9.0072695295456)

    ⌊ 13 / 4 ⌉ = ⌊3.25⌉ = 3
    i.e. harmonic of 13 nearest 4 is 13 / 3
    52 = (13/3)*(4) / (13/3 – 4)

    Sum Thing Weave Well-Understood

    With well-primed unversally enlightening aggregation criteria, just imagine We won’t be free to express even numbers.

    208=4/5*260
    232=4/5*290
    24=232-208
    30=290-260
    24=4/5*30

    Seizing the day counts symbolically stable eye zing my yen better eyes.

    26=(290/2-15)/5
    36=290/5-22
    44=29+15=26+18=290/5/2+15
    58=290/5=22+36
    72=290/4-1/2=2*290/5-44=2*290/5-290/5/2-15=290/2-290/5-15
    146=290/2+1
    208=4/5*(290-2*15)
    232=4/5*290

    We Voted Leave”

    260=290-2*15
    352=4/5*(4/5*290+4/5*(290-2*15))
    396=4*(11+1/5*(4/5*290+4/5*(290-2*15)))
    396=11*(290/2-290/5-15)/2
    396=4*(290/5+15+(290/2-15)/5)
    492=208+52+232=260+232=5/4*208+4/5*290=5*52+4*58=9/5*290-2*15=2*146+290-6*15
    5256=72*73
    5256=(290/4+1/2)*(290/4-1/2)
    5256=(290/2-290/5-15)*(290/5+15)

    The bottom line underscores 4 high mAIayan eyes that No.1’s well-aware IT AIn’t secure oddly betting $1111, $1001001, or even $100100010 against the base to prime universality.

    No. More BRI11√(Φ-φ)ant Speculation 4 No.1

    On He11Owean We got to finally C democraseize well done like R dinner.
    No.1+8 We’ll peacefully C 4 shore if a just few R free to express odd numbers meaning nothing to most.

    15=-290/5+290/4+1/2=26-11=44-29=(52-22)/2=(88-58)/2=(290-260)/2=(208-88)/8
    73=290/4+1/2=44+29=44+290/5/2=290/5+15

    36 = ⌊36.0290781181824⌋
    18 = ⌊18.0145390590912⌋
    9 = ⌊9.0072695295456⌋ = 36 / 4
    {1, 4, 36} = only square high ly composite numbers

    We R C zing sky-high day counts 4 No.1+8.

    44 = ⌊44.2784629967671⌋
    22 = ⌊22.1392314983835⌋
    11 = ⌊11.0696157491918⌋

    “real ⌈E⌉ simple…2 be satisφd…
    be a simple kind dove Ma’an…..EU’11 love ‘n’ understand.
    Listen closely….and if few due this IT’11 help EU sum sun ny day.
    Won’t EU due this form ⌈E⌉ sun? ‘O yes √(Φ-φ) wi11.'”
    — ly ny rd sky ny rd

    73 = ⌊73.0002008969005⌋ = the best number
    146 = ⌊146.000401793801⌋
    208 = ⌈207.777451493904⌉
    352 = ⌈351.268846907657⌉
    492 = ⌈491.049532942454⌉
    5256 = ⌊5256.63940169013⌋

    See cure IT 1st: Lately We express IT a bit wrong to C some R left missing what’s right buy objection to the framing AIone.

    Reza Due Content

    Turning a tension to live remainders (e.g. 19 wild circus animals + 65 million mostly-thame human beings), We C EU’v-e totally missed a Q-puncturing point R.

    4 the stablest integer spin, all EU need 2 due is leave the cultural framing a little wrong to simply settle remaining a tension.

    +8 Legendary Eye Land Golf

    Jove Lore ‘n’ Tee: “No.1 knows what wi11’app pen, but weave hope.”
    Superior con stitution seas symbolicAI eye on sub stitution:

    BRI
    10-4:
    1 No. for
    Won know 4.

    Just 4 Stability: Let H = U

    IT’s western demo-cross-seas AImost integer stay blessed express shhUN, mathematically symbol eye zing 2:1 4 reign UK peace-by-piece day counts. Right out of the west turn democratic sun set UKnow annex ample.

    Experimenta11y righting-off whatever dramatic day-counts R left is ease-C.

    4*99=4*11*9

    4 No.1+8 EU ou9hta wa11 IT buy base 10 reca11.

    Colorful leaves crystallize gains organically grounding the fall with short-term day-counts 4 the best peace-by-piece long-run year-counts.

    =
    73 is:
    • the largest minimal primitive root in the first 100,000 primes. In other words, if p is one of the first 100,000 primes, then at least one of the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, …, 72, 73 is a primitive root modulo p.
    • the smallest prime congruent to 1 modulo 24.
    • the smallest prime with a composite sum of digits, in base 5.
    palindromic in bases 2 (1001001_2) and 8 (111_8).
    • the only prime repunit in base 8 (111_8).
    =

    Sea-Mayan 10shhUNs 4 the Stay Blessed

    4 now weave freedom 2 review democraseize role in democraseas roll. Peace-by-piece the 73rd best bet’s naturally expressing past eye tease artificiAI delays 4 the stablest.

    Numbering Hollywood Dance Word

    Left radio actively exploring rightfully artistic means of west turn perswaysieve depth, Atlanti’setlist R eyes 4 shore to numerica11y capital eyes C Wa11 9’s expansion of the base.

  74. oldbrew says:

    They go on about magnetic this and that but as usual never mention that there’s no magnetism without electricity…

    Magnetism is a physical phenomenon, a byproduct of electricity which is produced when electric charges begin to move which results in attraction and repulsion between objects.
    http://www.differencebetween.net/science/difference-between-magnetism-and-electricity/

    NOVEMBER 26, 2019
    Image: Giant magnetic ropes in a galaxy’s halo
    by National Radio Astronomy Observatory

    “This is the first time that we have clearly detected what astronomers call large-scale, coherent, magnetic fields far in the halo of a spiral galaxy, with the field lines aligned in the same direction over distances of a thousand light-years. We even see a regular pattern of this organized field changing direction,” said Marita Krause, of the Max-Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-11-image-giant-magnetic-ropes-galaxy.html

  75. oldbrew says:

    27/11/2019 10:43 GMT
    Jeremy Clarkson Labels Greta Thunberg An ‘Idiot’ And Blames Her For ‘Killing’ The Car Show
    It is not the first time The Grand Tour host has hit out at the 16-year-old climate activist.

    Speaking to The Sun, he said: “Everyone I know under 25 isn’t the slightest bit interested in cars – Greta Thunberg has killed the car show.

    “They’re taught at school, before they say ‘Mummy and Daddy’, that cars are evil, and it’s in their heads.”
    . . .
    “She’s an idiot,” he said. “Going round saying we’re all going to die, that’s not going to solve anything, my dear.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-clarkson-greta-thunberg-car-show_uk_5dde473fe4b0d50f3299a8f5
    = = =
    We’re All Going To Die: Alarmists In Our Midst
    Date: 27/11/19 Steven Boykey Sidley, The Daily Maverick

    We are inundated daily with shock stories of climate-collapse-driven mass extinction and other dire horrors.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/were-all-going-to-die-alarmists-in-our-midst/
    .

  76. oldbrew says:

    NOVEMBER 25, 2019

    Low-frequency sound may predict tornado formation
    by American Physical Society

    “Prior to the 2019 tornado season, our array was only within range of one tornado, an EFU tornado in Perkins, Oklahoma. For that tornado, we started receiving a signal about eight minutes before the tornado formed, and a characteristic signature that we believe was associated with the tornado was received four minutes before the tornado touched down,” said Elbing. “This was significant since this small tornado had no warning and was not observed on any radar.”

    https://phys.org/news/2019-11-low-frequency-tornado-formation.html

  77. craigm350 says:

    As Mike Hulme pointed out the mathematics of the latest tipping point content in the journal Nature, are a bit ropey to say the least. I had a look and made some corrections, which I think highlight the real emergency;


    It could be worse than we thought 😳

  78. oldmanK says:

    Paul Vaughan’s extensively encrypted posts, as in the one above, have kept a tag on to the Mayan Calendar -for some reason- , a point I find of particular interest. But help is needed to unravel the -or any- hidden knowledge with respect to the calendar, particularly the Long Count calendar.

    Earlier in July, at https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/06/25/zharkova-uses-solar-planetary-theory-in-new-paper-predicting-earth-temperature-rise-to-2600-following-imminent-grand-solar-minimum/ PV posted:
    Paul Vaughan says: July 9, 2019 at 9:06 am
    “Ignorance is Bliss An AzTech recently suggested explosive revelation with know revolutionary guard May Encode incrementally piece-full release.”

    ??????????????

    Re the Long Count calendar, this appears to have its start point projected backwards to a remote point in time, but around or near to a very specific date in the Piora Oscillation (3195bce from dendrochronology; the 3200bce event; near to the 3202bce Kepler Trigon ). However the Mayan script is not that old, since the earliest know scripts go no further than, quote wiki “The earliest inscriptions found which are identifiably Maya date to the 3rd century BCE in San Bartolo, Guatemala.” Which means that the LC calendar start date relied very much on memory and tradition.

    The 3200bce event was a cataclysmic geological event, known to be so from several other sources. As such it qualifies as the start on a ‘New World Order’, as per Mayan belief, as the LC start date claims to be, and as amply shown on the last page of the Mayan Dresden Codex.

    Maybe someone can find some peace from the present turmoil to add something enlightening.

    It is claimed, from Al-Maqrizi (1364–1442) who said ” —– Their calculations had ensured them that the coming earth disaster will occur after four hundred years from their days. Soon they informed their King Soraied to build an architectonic project to save the accumulated scientific knowledge of the Egyptians for the new generations of the next cycle. It seems that, they believed, as it was dominant in their days that the ordinary people should not know this type of knowledge; hence, it should not be recorded in a written form. —–“. What followed according to ‘Ipuwer’ was great social turmoil. A lesson.

  79. oldbrew says:

    NOVEMBER 29, 2019

    Steve over the picket fence
    by European Space Agency

    Strange ribbons of purple light that appeared in the sky—known as Steve—became the subject of debate in 2017, as their origins were unbeknown to scientists. Now, photographs of these remarkable phenomena have been studied to understand their exact position in the night sky.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-11-steve-picket.html

  80. oldbrew says:

    Bristol diesel ban: Council halts £6m new van rollout

    ‘The council said it would now consider what new technology was available, expand its infrastructure for electric vehicles and finalise clean air plans.’

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-50613971

  81. oldbrew says:

    These two ‘interacting’ galaxies are 130,500 light-years apart, but…

    Hubble Witnesses Dance of Galaxies: Arp 293
    Nov 25, 2019

    “NGC 6286 and NGC 6285 are interacting, their mutual gravitational attraction pulling wisps of gas and streams of dust from them, distorting their shapes, and gently smudging and blurring their appearances on the sky — to Earth-based observers, at least,” they said.
    . . .
    A faint ‘bridge’ can be seen between the galaxies in deep images.

    http://www.sci-news.com/astronomy/hubble-galaxy-pair-arp-293-07835.html

    NB this was already known in 2013
    https://www.cloudynights.com/topic/445535-arp-293/#entry5766424

  82. oldbrew says:

    WHY MORE CLOUDS CAN MEAN LESS RAIN IN AUSTRALIA

    A giant, continent-sized cloud that dumps rain from Broome to Hobart has increased in frequency over the past 33 years, but its impact may not be what you expect

    By Kim Reid, University of Melbourne

    Our research produced a record of Northwest Cloudbands from 1984 through to 2016; the longest observational record of Australian Northwest Cloudbands. But it doesn’t stop there, as new satellite data becomes available, we are constantly updating the record.

    Importantly, this 33-year-old record means we can now observe long-term trends. And we found Northwest Cloudbands are occurring more often over Australia at a rate of about one extra day per year.

    In fact, they have nearly doubled in frequency and we don’t really know why.

    https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/why-more-clouds-can-mean-less-rain-in-australia

  83. oldbrew says:

    22 NOVEMBER 2019
    Global 5G wireless deal threatens weather forecasts

    Meteorologists say international standards for wireless technology could degrade crucial satellite measurements of water vapour.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03609-x

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01305-4

  84. Saighdear says:

    From a local newspaper KLIK Bait down the Rabbithole 116 times number of EVs on roads led to this:
    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-09-05/methane-and-climate-10-things-you-should-know/

  85. oldbrew says:

    Saighdear says:
    December 6, 2019 at 2:11 pm (Edit)
    – – –
    Sadly this kind of climate propaganda aimed at the gullible is all too prevalent these days.
    = = =
    Meanwhile…can’t go below zero!

  86. oldbrew says:

    Not heard this one before…

    The Chandler wobble as a trigger of the El Niño excitation

    Using data of the Met Office Hadley Centre, time series of the near surface temperature and sea-surface pressure for the period 1875-2012 are processed to compute the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (ESOI). Detailed spectra of the ONI and ESOI show peaks that exist throughout the year, but the most powerful in the boreal winter months. Peak periods consist of 29, 43 and 58 months, which is roughly equivalent to 2, 3 and 4 periods of the well-known 14-month Chandler wobble of the Earth’s pole motion. A plausible physical mechanism of the Chandler wobble influence on the El Niño excitation is presented.

    Conference Paper (PDF Available) · April 2014 
    Conference: European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, At Vienna, Austria

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/276280513_The_Chandler_wobble_as_a_trigger_of_the_El_Nino_excitation

  87. oldbrew says:

    IW – initial comment: I’ve seen the Sidorenkov numbers before, but possibly in a different paper (the 35.3 year one?), so must have forgotten them until your comment.

    Just over five CW = one ‘lunar wobble’ (just under 6 tropical years).
    The ratio I get is 17 LW: 86 CW (5*17=85).

    MIT had an article years ago about a 2005 phase reversal of the CW, asking for theories.
    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/415093/earths-chandler-wobble-changed-dramatically-in-2005/

    Some speculation was that it was related to the Xmas 2004 earthquake/tsunami altering the Earth’s rotation and/or axis slightly.

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