Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 😎

  1. oldbrew says:

    Link back to Suggestions 44

    [for viewing only please]

    = = =

  2. oldbrew says:

    SEPTEMBER 28, 2021
    Coolant leak ‘likely’ sparked giant Tesla battery fire in Australia

    “The most likely root cause of the incident was a leak within the Megapack cooling system that caused a short circuit that led to a fire in an electronic component,” said a technical probe by the safety regulator Energy Safe Victoria.
    – – –
    They left it to burn out after three days. Two packs were destroyed or badly damaged.

  3. oldbrew says:

    ‘Pandora Papers’ reveal hidden wealth of world leaders, celebrities, billionaires

    Issued on: 03/10/2021

    The “Pandora Papers” are the latest in a series of mass ICIJ leaks of financial documents that started with LuxLeaks in 2014, and was followed by the Panama Papers, the Paradise Papers and FinCen.

    NEW: #PandoraPapers reveals the inner workings of a shadow economy that benefits the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of everyone else.

    Brought to you by ICIJ and 600+ journalists, the largest collaboration in journalism history. 🧵 [= youtube video link]

    — ICIJ (@ICIJorg) October 3, 2021
    – – –
    ‘Trillions of dollars’ involved.
    = = =
    Pandora Papers: A simple guide to the Pandora Papers leak
    By Pandora Papers reporting team
    BBC Panorama

    Published 23 hours ago
    The Pandora Papers is a leak of almost 12 million documents that reveals hidden wealth, tax avoidance and, in some cases, money laundering by some of the world’s rich and powerful.

    More than 600 journalists in 117 countries have been trawling through the files from 14 sources for months, finding stories that are being published this week.

  4. Paul Vaughan says:

    $No. B orders$

    $sum bull lies SST i.e. moon-docs 220:
    There snow borders

    West turn II CO[UN]nterbalance Macron nom IC DO fence of freed ’em.

    515 = C-ΣΔ(220)


  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    “number Won” alpha-nose Tie moon-docs 142 = ΣΔ(220)

    504 = 220+s(220) is “sea year us” weather EU too B or[well]other “green” why$11and

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    mods: Richard Lindzen is caught in the filter

  7. oldbrew says:


    It’s Time For Some Truth-Telling At November’s Climate Summit

    ‘The coming northern winter will confirm the first energy truth – wind, solar, batteries, and electric vehicles will not keep people warm and well-fed.

    The soaring demand for hydrocarbon fuels, the coming electricity blackouts and rationing, and bare grocery shelves will reveal what the media won’t. In the interests of accuracy, COP26 should be rebranded “Cut Our Power 26”.’

  8. oldbrew says:

    A ‘HALO CME’ IS COMING: This could be the first head-on CME strike of young Solar Cycle 25. On Saturday, Oct. 9th, an M1.6-class solar flare in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2882 hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the storm cloud coming almost straight toward us:

    A direct hit by this cloud on Oct. 11th could cause a geomagnetic storm. Context: This is not the Carrington Event.

    CME IMPACT SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: As predicted, a CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on Oct. 12th. The impact at approximately 02:30 UT sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm. Auroras spread across northern Europe, Iceland, Canada, and multiple northern-tier US states.

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    Measuring “6000 year” cycle length deviations (Rial’s figure 11) is feasible with a combo of methods.

  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    ‘The [???]MET i.e. MET EU’

    “IT$ snot-enough II say that T i.e…”
    CO[UN]T-win primes the vert UN no. CO[$]104
    200 = 378-178 “II answer all the questions that been houndUN…”
    elite rants miss[$]UN[?]airSSTandinequality of ends, yet compose tie moon-docs 142 = ΣΔ(220)
    “a la la la”

    UN IT Y/N earfolk US

    May peace be with you.

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    Blue Line Offside

    NGRIP 2nd order
    central difference
    2.4 Ma Gaussian

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    Then integrate.

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    SAM Nos. AMO$snot FramUN NAM Integral

    more “rock clueless”
    11UN-US “solar”

    193.173519673385 = slip(96.1912425566793,64.0400815423744) — tropical
    209.020586404974 = slip(96.5867598366927,66.0606540657476) — anomalistic

    11owesstUN!T!ouch!able weird number = 4*209 = 836

    hawk key tale lore inform ace-yuan “offside blue” CO[II]air f(lukes$) able IT$ski-line

    VErtUNno.CO[$]UN!T!ouch “macro nom[m]makes”

    May a11 USA Bot-C11aim?ET BCageAB knew C11airsub$tattoo:$UNin’green11UNdonmarkIT$

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    typo: “2.4 Ma Gaussian”
    Ma should be ka

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    equivalent: forward difference, 2.4 ka Gaussian
    i.e. equivalent to integrated second order central difference
    edge-effect: ignore first few ka (before first blue-line kink) on illustration above

    hindsight: curious (& suspicious) that this stuff wasn’t more high-profile at other sites a decade ago

    just a few key tips from “experts” (weather ignorance or deception, dark either way) could have prevented 6-7 years of unnecessary hurdles – maybe a decade

  16. oldbrew says:

    OCTOBER 14, 2021
    The Southern Ocean’s role in driving global carbon cycle stronger than expected
    by Stellenbosch University South Africa

    The Southern Ocean’s role in driving the global carbon cycle may be stronger than expected as the biological carbon pump is not “switched off” in winter as previously thought.
    . . .
    Phytoplankton are microscopic, single-celled plant-like organisms suspended mostly in the top 100 meters of the oceans. Using sunlight for energy and dissolved inorganic nutrients, phytoplankton convert carbon dioxide to organic carbon and form the base of the marine food web. It has been shown that phytoplankton are as important in modifying the planet’s cycle of carbon and carbon dioxide as all the world’s land plants combined.
    . . .
    “Akin to leaves falling off trees during autumn because of unfavorable growth conditions, the assumption was that phytoplankton would also not be active during the winter. One of our major findings is that phytoplankton are indeed active during winter in the Southern Ocean, although not to the levels we see in summer. How phytoplankton are able to adapt to winter conditions is not well understood, and our research on trace nutrients is the first step in figuring out these adaption strategies,”

    [bold added]

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    c[enso]r!sh!op weather right, left, and otherwise.

    Ridiculously simple with hindsight, from back in the day.

    Ingredients missing then fit 1/4-page (no doubt what “expert” mechanisms DO!n’t copy/paste).

  18. oldbrew says:

    Solar arrays gobbling up New York state farmland.

    OCTOBER 14, 2021
    Electric sheep: Grazing in solar arrays supports economy, climate
    by Cornell University

  19. oldbrew says:

    Fossil fuels not going out of fashion yet…

    Coal futures have jumped almost 40pc this week as power shortages and high prices threaten to cripple Chinese factories.

  20. Paul Vaughan says:

    MET Trick

    DO ignore 4.5 plot 1eve1.

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    QBO Metric 236….

    PlayDO tie moon-docs 236…. Nos.TA11Gaia I wood….

    PR hi 11yuan: UK what II reel CO[www] buoy nos.”11awe won

    Wishing peace and tranquility to fair equatorial judges weather left, right, and otherwise.

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    ozone: diurnal & semidiurnal (thermal, not gravitational) tidal waves

    “[…] lunar gravity is not able to generate significant waves in the atmosphere. However, tidal waves are generated in the atmosphere due to cycles of heating by incoming solar radiation. For purposes of these tidal fluctuations, the most important heating is that which occurs due to the absorption of solar radiation by the ozone layer […] the most significant wave has a period of half a day […] These peaks and valleys are best observed in tropical latitudes, and are difficult to observe in the temperate latitudes and the higher latitudes. There are two reasons for this. First, because incoming solar radiation is greater per unit area in tropical latitudes, the forcing for tidal motions is stronger in these areas. Second, because stronger migratory pressure systems are more common in higher latitudes, they frequently mask pressure fluctuations due to atmospheric tides. In the tropics, though, significant pressure systems are not that common […]”

  23. Paul Vaughan says:

    “a signature of 27 day solar rotation in the concentration of metallic ions within the terrestrial ionosphere”

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    ~400ka Lunisolar Cycle

    Some of these numbers were derived previously.
    Note how things (and others nearly) fit together.

    207.340632664648 = beat(179.333323110834,96.1613372617316)
    207.340632664648 = beat(96.1613372617316,65.693651051301)
    65.693651051301 = axial(207.340632664648,96.1613372617316) — 66, 96, & ~de Vries

    9.92931112055761 = beat(96.1613372617316,9)
    19.8586222411152 = 2 * 9.92931112055761
    19.8588772513307 = beat(29.4571389459274,11.8619822039699) — NASA “factsheet” fits

    10.0159390290433 = beat(96.1613372617316,9.07111318552874)
    20.0318780580867 = 2 * 10.0159390290433
    20.0305197473752 = beat(2317.51251648273,19.8588772513307) —- “2318” JSUN fit

    11.0727945412873 = beat(96.1613372617316,9.92943862566537) —- ~JSEV (related notes)
    9.00010475477822 = axial(96.1613372617316,9.92943862566537) — bundle (another day)

    358.666646221667 = beat(207.340632664648,131.387302102602)
    358.666646221667 = beat(131.387302102602,96.1613372617316)

    Next level note:

    491.430175125093 = beat(358.666646221667,207.340632664648)
    810756.989857374 = beat(491.430175125093,491.132481334807)

    405378.494928687 = beat(245.715087562547,245.566240667403) ~=
    405378.5 cycle of LNC & LAC slip in tropical frame

    vs. g_2 – g_5 :

    405113.811661464 = beat(304399.417131486,173804.240903943)
    405568.048748278 = beat(304405.279928371,173889.708842077)
    405691.196375825 = beat(304407.424910486,173913.043478261)

    405378.494928687 = beat(beat(179.333323110834,beat(179.333323110834,96.1613372617316)/2),491.132481334807/2)

    Familiar lunisolar cycles in collective focus.

  25. Paul Vaughan says:

    Time index 41K “suddenly ice sea” TuneSSTa11

    the power II B the power II give
    the power II C

  26. Paul Vaughan says:

    Some sensible folks DO model “the climate system beyond the AMOC”.

    […] role of the atmosphere circulation and wind-driven global ocean circulation in the NH–SH phasing seen in DO events […]

    […] abrupt NH warming is forced by an increase in the Earth’s eccentricity and a shift to vernal equinox at perihelion, which modifies the TSI distribution throughout the year but not its annual, global mean […]

    Despite the simplicity of the experimental setup, the model reproduces important features of the reconstructed climate changes during DO events, such as a NH–SH polar phasing, a northward ITCZ shift, a quasi-instantaneous coupling between the westerlies and the NH warming, and a nearly negligible change in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

    A critical aspect here is that MOC fluctuations, although important for the model phasing, are not the drivers of the abrupt changes […] consistent set of changes in the atmosphere and the wind-driven circulation of the ocean which are essential in propagating the perturbations from the NH to the SH. […] critical role of components of the climate system beyond the AMOC […]

  27. oldbrew says:

    Shock, horror! COP26 has an electric car problem
    22 October 2021

    Some 240 Jaguar Land Rover vehicles including its I-PACE SUVs will be laid on by the UK government to move the 120 visiting heads of state and their entourages between their hotels and the SEC venue. Unfortunately a lack of charging points means the fleet now has to be re-charged by cooking oil-powered generators. A COP26 spokesperson has confirmed that the substitute generators may have to run on hydrogenated vegetable oil – recycled cooking oil – derived from waste products. [bold added]
    – – –
    Remind us what power sources were used to do the cooking.

  28. oldbrew says:

    OCTOBER 21, 2021

    Ten mysteries of Venus
    by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

  29. Damian says:

    Not a suggestion but it might give you a bit of a giggle:

    There’s a lucrative market for making shit up apparently.

  30. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Paul, interesting paper. I wonder if they considered the effects of pressure on the cell structure of atmospheres. Venus is nearly isothermal, not just because its orbit is nearly circular, but because the high pressure prevents it having hadley and ferrel cells.

  31. oldbrew says:

    Damian’s link: ‘The world needs achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in order to prevent catastrophic global warming.’

    Author link: ‘she has worked at the Guardian (UK)’. All becomes clear 🙄

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    TB, rapid-scroll of ‘suggested political D-talks’ paper is all I did (seconds).
    Request: Please – anyone able – linkIIunfiltered daily TSI data (i.e. including lunar & annual cycles “normally” filtered out). Why? Now’s not the time to answer but IIask..

  33. Paul Vaughan says:

    Surely there is someone in the climate discussion community able to link to unfiltered TSI data (i.e. TSI data that does not subtract out earth & moon orbits)?

    True or False?
    1. constant fractions of insolation energy channel homogeneously into (a) SS-cooling ice-melt-runoff; (b) SS-warming; (c) atmospheric river hosing (where SS = sea surface)
    2. gradients and gradient-driven circulation strictly cannot affect balance 1
    3. we should always ignore observations that indicate the organization of the physical apparatus …because we already know how to (a) do “physics” that ignores key observational clues and (b) relentlessly abuse those who disagree with that

  34. oldbrew says:

    PV – the linked pdf says ‘In this paper, we apply FFT function to the unfiltered TSI in Matlab’

    Determination of short-period terms of total solar irradiance (2019)

    Found this: Solar Irradiation Model

  35. oldbrew says:

    Green Groups Thwarting Geothermal Solutions to Energy Problems
    September 24, 2021

    Geothermal energy doesn’t fit the narrative pushed by many green groups. Proponents don’t call for more expansive federal regulation, or oppose using low-risk fracking technologies. As a result, geothermal solutions have remained largely out of public view. And the small industry’s limited lobbying efforts have yet to seriously move the needle in Washington.

    Even with the lethargy on Capitol Hill, though, geothermal energy is picking up steam.

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    Thanks for the links oldbrew.

    I can clarify: I’m looking for a link to unfiltered TSI data — i.e. the data before earth & moon orbits are subtracted out …and I’m wondering why a simple internet search doesn’t readily highlight a link to the data.

  37. oldbrew says:

    Climategate update…

    A Theory of the Hack
    – Stephen McIntyre

    See Conclusion: ‘The first avatar of Mr FOIA in the CRU network was almost certainly via password access to Keith Briffa’s online account (through proxy servers). I’ve received a first-hand statement that Briffa’s password was exposed and available to the public in the period immediately prior to the “hack”. Signing on to Briffa’s account with this password via a proxy server did not require CIA or KGB level skills.’
    – – –
    KB was off sick at a time when new passwords had been issued – to thwart hackers presumably. So his new password had not yet been personalised/encrypted.

  38. oldbrew says:

    Two Planets in HD 3167 System are on Perpendicular Orbits, Astronomers Say
    Nov 2, 2021

    The super-Earth HD 3167b is close to orbiting within the stellar equatorial plane, while the mini-Neptune HD 3167c orbits above the poles of the host star, and the orbits of the two planets are nearly perpendicular (mutual inclination 102.3 degrees), according to a team of astronomers led by the Observatoire Astronomique de l’Universite de Geneve.
    . . .
    The innermost planet, HD 3167b, is a super-Earth on an ultrashort period of 0.96 days and the outermost one, HD 3167c, is a mini-Neptune on a 29.84 days orbit.

    While HD 3167b and HD 3167c transit, this is not the case for HD 3167d, which orbits in between them on a 8.51 days orbit.
    – – –
    An orbit ratio of 62b:7d:2c works well, giving a synodic ratio of 55:5 (Fibonacci numbers) = 11:1 for b-d:d-c.

    62 b = 59.52 days
    7 d = 59.57
    2 c = 59.68

  39. oldbrew says:

    Japan ports swamped by pumice spewed from undersea volcano

    Dozens of fishing vessels and ports have been damaged, with tonnes of the floating pebbles being removed from coastlines every day

    Deputy chief cabinet secretary Yoshihiko Isozaki said on Friday that the pumice had so far affected 11 ports on Okinawa and 19 others in the Kagoshima prefecture, on Japan’s southernmost island of Kyushu, and forced the central government to establish a disaster recovery task force.
    . . .
    The grey pebbles came from the Fukutokuokanoba undersea volcano, hundreds of kilometres away in the Ogasawara island chain, which erupted in mid-August. The islands lie about 1,000km (600 miles) south of Tokyo.

  40. oldbrew says:

    Biden Threatens OPEC+ With Undisclosed “Tools”
    Nov 08, 2021

    The U.S. administration has been urging OPEC and its partners in OPEC+ to add more barrels to their combined output since July as recovering demand for oil products pushed prices at the pump to politically uncomfortable highs.

    Most recently, the calls have turned into demands and accusations of OPEC+ threatening the global economic recovery by withholding barrels from the market.
    – – –
    Self-styled anti-emissions climate fixer wants more oil 🤔

  41. oldbrew says:

    Published: 09 March 2020
    Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium


    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1,2,3,4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which—together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling—may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability. [bold added]
    – – –
    ‘at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century’
    ‘anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century’

    Around the time of the Maunder Minimum.

  42. oldbrew says:

    Global warming?

    Last Six Months for Antarctica Coldest on Record

    The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) noted, CNN reported, “for the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a record for those months.”

  43. oldbrew says:

    London’s controversial Tulip tower rejected over carbon and design concerns
    11 NOV, 2021

    Gove agrees with the inspector that “the extensive measures that would be taken to minimise carbon emissions during construction would not outweigh the highly unsustainable concept of using vast quantities of reinforced concrete for the foundations and lift shaft to transport visitors to as high a level as possible to enjoy a view”. He adds that it “would not amount to good design”.
    – – –
    Would they consider wind turbines to be another example of ‘the highly unsustainable concept of using vast quantities of reinforced concrete for the foundations’ ? 🤔

  44. oldbrew says:

    Continuous rise of the tropopause in the Northern Hemisphere over 1980–2020
    5 Nov 2021

    Tropopause height (H) is a sensitive diagnostic for anthropogenic climate change.
    . . .
    A large trend in H remains after major natural forcings for H are removed, providing further observational evidence for anthropogenic climate change.
    – – –
    after major natural forcings for H are removed’ – using what data?

    The internet is now full of stories headlined ‘Earths lower atmosphere is expanding due to climate change …’ 🙄

  45. tallbloke says:

    The sky isn’t falling!

  46. oldbrew says:

    Oceanic Harbingers of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Predictability in CESM2 Detected by Neural Networks
    First published: 27 October 2021

    Plain Language Summary

    The Earth’s oceans are capable of storing large amounts of heat with spatial patterns of ocean heat lasting for decades at a time. One such pattern is called the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). As these patterns indicate how heat is distributed over the globe, they are associated with increased predictability of extreme weather events as well as being an important factor for marine ecosystems. Predicting when the PDO will shift from one pattern to the other has proven a tricky proposition in climate science as mechanisms from the atmosphere and the ocean both play a role. Here we show that artificial intelligence can predict PDO transitions over 12 months in advance. We also investigate the predictions and show that they are related to known physical mechanisms—our models are making the right predictions for the right reasons. We leverage past knowledge, and the new discoveries from artificial intelligence to speculate how ocean patterns can lead to PDO predictability.

    From the conclusions:
    it is not unrealistic that Atlantic OHC [ocean heat content] signals could assist in predicting PDO transitions. In particular, teleconnections from the Atlantic are considered a key influence for triggering El Nino events (Ham et al., 2013) whereas La Nina events are thought to be largely triggered by a preceding El Nino event.

  47. oldbrew says:

    No conspiracy theories please…

    Understanding the Mysterious Hum That Tortures a Select Few

    A small percentage of people are troubled by a low-frequency hum that the rest of us can’t hear. But researchers aren’t sure why.
    Nov 12, 2021

    Low-frequency sounds can generally cause health problems, and this puzzling hum is no exception. Hum-hearers report headaches, nausea, insomnia, fatigue and memory loss. The noises also tend to be somewhat localized. For example, there is the Taos, New Mexico hum; the Bristol, England hum; the Largs, Scotland hum. Scarce research has looked into the phenomenon, and the few existing studies lack definitive answers.

  48. oldbrew says:

    Global warming update…

    Arctic shippers eye release from Russian ice captivity

    The 15 ships that for the last two weeks have been ice-locked in Russian Arctic waters see release coming as a second icebreaker makes its way into the East Siberian Sea.
    November 16, 2021

    Over the past years, ice conditions in late October and early November have allowed extensive shipping along the vast Russian Arctic coast. This year, however, large parts of the remote Arctic waters were already in late October covered by sea-ice. There is now an ice layer more than 30 cm thick cross most of the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea. And in the strait separating the mainland with the Island of Wrangel is an area with more than a meter thick multi-year old ice.

  49. oldbrew says:

    Nothing escapes the ‘low-carbon’ craze…

    Low-carbon space propulsion gets closer thanks to Reaction Engines funding
    16 Nov 2021
    – – –
    The Sabre (Synergetic Air Breathing Rocket Engine) is a new class of engine for propelling both high-speed aircraft and spacecraft (Credit: Reaction Engines)

  50. oldbrew says:

    More EV woes…

    Tesla drivers left unable to start their cars after outage
    Published 5 hours ago

    The Tesla app is used as a key by drivers to unlock and start their cars.

    Owners posted a multitude of complaints online about not being able to use their vehicles.

    “I’m stuck an hour away from home because I normally use my phone to start car,” one owner tweeted.

  51. oldbrew says:

    Mysterious small and cold object glimpsed 20 BILLION miles from Earth in 1983 may have been elusive Planet Nine, scientists claim
    16 November 2021

    Michael Rowan-Robinson, from Imperial College London, turned to the archives in the hope of finding a ‘blip’ in old data that could point to its existence.

    He analysed data collected by the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) in 1983, finding three potential sources that might just be ‘Planet Nine’.

    While Rowan-Robinson admits that the probability of the object being Planet Nine is ‘not overwhelming’, he claims it ‘would be worthwhile to check.’

  52. oldbrew says:

    Alleviating the transit timing variation bias in transit surveys

    I. RIVERS: Method and detection of a pair of resonant super-Earths around
    November 15, 2021

    The paper is structured as follows: in section 2 we discuss
    the problem of TTV bias. In Section 3 we introduce the RIVERS
    (recognition of interval variations in exoplanet recovery surveys)
    method using Kepler-36b as an example. In section 4, we use
    the RIVERS method to detect and characterise a pair of resonant
    planets around Kepler-1705. The dynamics of the resonant
    pair is discussed in section 5. Finally, we discuss the choices and
    caveats of the method, and conclude in section 6.
    . . .
    We illustrate the method by the detection and confirmation of
    a pair of super-Earths in a 5:4 MMR around Kepler-1705

    [bold added]

  53. oldbrew says:

    Planting trees to profit from carbon offsets…

    OCTOBER 17, 2021

    Sheep graze between rocky outcrops on the Scottish hillside as a hawk looms above a metallic gray sky.

    It’s a centuries-old scene – but over the next decade this piece of land on the 5,300-acre Fordie Estate in Perth will start to look very different.

    £ 7.8bn infrastructure investor Foresight Group bought the estate from winemaker Xavier-Louis Vuitton in August and plans to make it one of its best performing assets.

    Rather than cramming it with houses, however, the company plans to grow new trees on tracts of land, adding to the estate’s existing banks of Douglas fir, sycamore, larch and others.

    Foresight sees a great opportunity not only in the booming timber market, but also in the growing demand for carbon sequestration among polluting companies looking to offset their emissions.

    “We were able to buy the land at the right price and it is a very beautiful place,” says Robert Guest, investment manager at Foresight. “It’s a beautiful landscape and it has been well taken care of, but it has not been optimized.”

  54. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rich KnowBull Self ?

    Surely NOcomic: CO[$]sea?zoo key$welloff nature“.

  55. oldbrew says:

    NOVEMBER 24, 2021

    Collapse of ancient Liangzhu culture caused by climate change

    ‘Data from the stalagmites show that between 4345 and 4324 years ago, there was a period of extremely high precipitation. Evidence for this was provided by the isotope records of carbon, which were measured at the University of Innsbruck. The precise dating was done by uranium-thorium analyses at Xi’an Jiaotong University, whose measurement accuracy is ± 30 years. “This is amazingly precise in light of the temporal dimension,” says the geologist. “The massive monsoon rains probably led to such severe flooding of the Yangtze and its branches that even the sophisticated dams and canals could no longer withstand these masses of water, destroying Liangzhu City and forcing people to flee.” The very humid climatic conditions continued intermittently for another 300 years, as the geologists show from the cave data.’
    – – –
    About 2300 BC.

  56. Patrick Geryl says:

    1. We Just published our paper about the exact strength of Solar Cycle 25 on Researchgate. The Astrophysical Journal almost published it, but then said that every cycle is not the same, while we have one of the highest and one of the lowest cycles in our paper!

    2. The Astrophysical Journal rejected our published paper for the same reasons, while it was right… But Astrophysics and Space Science found it valid.

    Therefore we keep trying, bit it will be difficult.

    Main points:

    1. A new smoothing method (365 days).

    2. An exact day for the start of a sunspot cycle… Up until now astronomers use a 13-month smoothed method, that is archaic and leads to months of difference between the SSN and 10.7 flux… Ours doesn’t… The basic findings were done by Jan Alvestad, who found that Solar Cycle 25 started on November 18, 2019. More details can be found on his website. He also gives the sunspots in high resolution. This way it is better to see if a sunspot is beta-gamma-delta. For instance he listed 2887 as beta-gamma-delta before it exploded in an X1.

    3. How Solar Cycle 25 can be compared with previous ones in an exact manner.

    4. The high of Solar Cycle 25 can be calculated.

    5. Why the ‘Terminator’ is delayed.

  57. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Judith Curry

    Oh, but the science is ‘settled’ everyone knows that. They’ve been so brainwashed about global warming that there’s only one thing that’s going to change it. if I’m right about natural variability having sort of a cooling effect in the coming decades, this will be the one piece of evidence that people will have to pay attention to. If that transpires, I would say that would be the single most effective thing at bringing this dialogue back to some level of rationality, but how much confidence do I have in that prediction? How much money am I going to bet on that? I don’t know, but it’s a very plausible scenario that natural variability will lead to cooling in the coming decades, or at least slow down the warming. So we’ll see if that transpires. If it does, that would be the single most effective thing at bringing the dialogue back to normal in some sensible way, so people look at this problem more broadly. On the current path, we are not managing this risk in a sensible way that would leave our countries stronger and less vulnerable to whatever my transpire in the future.”

    Crazy — obviously doesn’t realize what’s going on.

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    related paragraph:

    “These timelines totally ignore natural climate variability. It looks like all the modes of natural climate variability are tilted towards cooling over the next three decades. It looks like we’re heading towards a solar minimum. Any volcanic eruptions by definition are negative. And we expect the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to shift to the cold phase on the timescale of about a decade. So all of these modes of natural variability point to cooling in the coming decades, which would push these off by decades. This buys us decades to figure out what we should do. So we’re talking about less than one degree of additional warming, it doesn’t sound so scary when you put it that way.”

  59. oldbrew says:

    DECEMBER 2, 2021
    Scientists identify another reason why batteries can’t charge in minutes

    “Plating is one of the main causes of impaired battery performance during fast charging,” said Argonne battery scientist Daniel Abraham, an author of the study. “As we charged the battery quickly, we found that in addition to the plating on the anode surface there was a build up of reaction products inside the electrode pores.” As a result, the anode itself undergoes some degree of irreversible expansion, impairing battery performance.
    – – –
    So they can charge quite fast, but it’s not a good idea.

  60. oldbrew says:

    NOVEMBER 24, 2021
    New findings about ions around comets

    “For the first time, we have now been able to determine the flow directions of low-energy ions observed by ICA at comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko,” Sofia Bergman says. “The results were surprising. We see a large amount of ions flowing inward towards the comet nucleus, instead of outward as we had expected.”

    Comets are interesting to study when we want to understand how the solar wind is interacting with different bodies in the solar system.


  61. oldbrew says:

    They often say this but who knows…

    DECEMBER 6, 2021
    Battery ‘dream technology’ is a step closer to reality with new discovery

    A sodium-sulfur battery created by engineers at The University of Texas at Austin solves one of the biggest hurdles that has held back the technology as a commercially viable alternative to the ubiquitous lithium-ion batteries that power everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.
    . . .
    The researchers created an electrolyte that prevents the sulfur from dissolving and thus solves the shuttling and dendrite problems.
    – – –
    Also from the link, knocking lithium:

    The price of lithium has skyrocketed during the past year, underscoring the need for alternatives. Lithium mining has been criticized for its environmental impacts, including heavy groundwater use, soil and water pollution, and carbon emissions. By comparison, sodium is available in the ocean, cheaper, and more environmentally friendly.

    Lithium-ion batteries typically also use cobalt, which is expensive and mined mostly in Africa’s Democratic Republic of the Congo, where it has significant impacts on human health and the environment.

  62. oldbrew says:

    BOMBSHELL: In court filing, Facebook admits ‘fact checks’ are nothing more than opinion
    1 day ago
    – – –
    We knew that, but now they say so to keep the law at bay.

  63. oldbrew says:

    Expensive hydrogen to get another UK trial…

    Hydrogen town plans unveiled for Lincolnshire, UK
    Dec 15, 2021

    One of the world’s first hydrogen-powered towns could be located in Lincolnshire, UK, in a move that is set to cut emissions in the location by a quarter.
    – – –
    Could also be one of the world’s last…

  64. oldbrew says:

    Iceland volcano news…

    Current data indicates that Grimsvotn has entered its last phase before the eruption.
    . . .

    Grimsvotn is a very likely candidate to have a large explosive eruption in the near future. It is powerful enough to have an effect on Europe and further around the Northern Hemisphere.

  65. oldbrew says:

    The website may be overloaded just now, but worth a look sometime.

    Get up close to Skara Brae with new 3D model of 5,000-year-old settlement
    Friday, December 17, 2021

  66. oldbrew says:

    Watch: Tesla Owner Told Repairs Will Cost 20,000 Euros. He Chose Dynamite

    Jaala, an idyllic and ice-covered village in south Finland’s Kymenlaakso region with just a few thousand people, witnessed a bizarre incident as the owner of a 2013 Tesla Model S set his car up for an explosion.
    December 20, 2021

  67. oldbrew says:

    DECEMBER 20, 2021

    Millipedes ‘as big as cars’ once roamed Northern England, fossil find reveals
    by University of Cambridge

    Unlike the cool and wet weather associated with the region today, Northumberland had a more tropical climate in the Carboniferous Period, when Great Britain lay near the Equator. Invertebrates and early amphibians lived off the scattered vegetation around a series of creeks and rivers. The specimen identified by the researchers was found in a fossilized river channel: it was likely a molted segment of the Arthropleura’s exoskeleton that filled with sand, preserving it for hundreds of millions of years.
    . . .
    The great size of Arthropleura has previously been attributed to a peak in atmospheric oxygen during the late Carboniferous and Permian periods, but because the new fossil comes from rocks deposited before this peak, it shows that oxygen cannot be the only explanation.

  68. oldbrew says:

    Spaceweather reports — Sunspot number: 147

    There are 10 numbered sunspot groups on the solar disk–the most since the peak of the previous Solar Cycle almost 11 years ago.

  69. oldbrew says:

    Global warming news…

    What it’s like skiing in record snowfall at Crans Montana resort in Switzerland
    Updated: 22/12/2021 – 18:40

    “We’ve had about 82cm,” Benoit Python a wiry, sun-weathered ski instructor from the Swiss Ski School Crans-Montana says. “And over in Chamonix, they’ve had nearly 85cm!”

    According to The Chamoniarde, Chamonix Mountain Prevention and Relief Society, France’s world-famous freeride destination, that’s just over 90km by road from Crans Montana, has not seen snowfall like this since 1966.

  70. oldbrew says:

    DECEMBER 22, 2021
    Researchers find that iodine in desert dust destroys ozone
    by University of Colorado at Boulder

    “Iodine, the same chemical added as a nutrient to table salt, is eating up ozone in dusty air high in the atmosphere,” said Rainer Volkamer, a CIRES Fellow and professor of chemistry at CU Boulder. Volkamer led the team that made precision atmospheric measurements by aircraft over the eastern Pacific Ocean several years ago. The new finding, he said, has implications for not only air quality, but climate, too—iodine chemistry can make greenhouse gases stick around longer and should give us pause to re-think geoengineering schemes involving dust.

  71. oldbrew says:

    Dec. 20, 2021
    Air bubbles in Antarctic ice point to cause of oxygen decline
    Glacial erosion likely caused atmospheric oxygen levels to dip over past 800,000 years

    Weathering refers to the physical and chemical processes that break down rocks and minerals, and the oxidation of metals is among the most important. The rusting of iron is an example. Reddish iron oxide forms quickly on iron surfaces exposed to atmospheric oxygen, or O2.

    “When you expose fresh crystalline surfaces from the sedimentary reservoir to O2, you get weathering that consumes oxygen,” said Yan, a postdoctoral research associate in Rice’s Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences.

    Another way glaciers could promote the consumption of atmospheric oxygen is by exposing organic carbon that had been buried for millions of years, Yan said.
    . . .
    “The reason for the decline is the rate of O2 being produced is lower than the rate of O2 being consumed,” Yan said.

  72. Paul Vaughan says:

    extent is not tuned correctly (CLT) here

  73. Paul Vaughan says:

    extent is not tuned correctly (CLT) here

  74. Paul Vaughan says:

    same old bullshit as ever

  75. oldbrew says:

    More Evidence: Glaciers Existing Today Were Absent For Nearly All Of The Last 10,000 Years
    By Kenneth Richard on 27. December 2021

    So, once again, there is no evidence to support the alarmist claims that modern glacier extents are unprecedented or even unusual relative to the last 10,000 years – including the last few centuries.

  76. oldbrew says:

    Crazy numbers…

    Getting on Track for Net-Zero by 2050 Will Require Rapid Scaling of Investment in the Energy Transition Over the Next Ten Years — BloombergNEF
    July 21, 2021

    Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require as much as $173 trillion in investments in the energy transition, according to BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) New Energy Outlook 2021 (NEO), the latest edition of its annual long-term scenario analysis on the future of the energy economy. The route to net zero remains yet uncertain. BNEF’s NEO outlines three distinct scenarios (labeled Green, Red and Gray) that each achieve net-zero while relying on a different mix of technologies.
    . . .
    Specifically, the following milestones will need to be achieved by 2030 to be on track to reach net-zero by mid-century:

    — Add 505 gigawatts of new wind power each year to 2030 (5.2 times the 2020 total)
    — Add 455 gigawatts of solar PV each year to 2030 (3.2 times the 2020 total)
    — Add 245 gigawatt-hours of batteries each year to 2030 (26 times the 2020 total)
    — Add 35 million EVs added to the road each year to 2030 (11 times the 2020 total)
    — Sustainable aviation fuels make up 18% of aircraft fuel in 2030
    — Increase recycled volume of aluminum 67%, steel 44% and plastics 149% by 2030 from 2019 levels
    — Deploy 18 million heat pumps each year to 2030
    — Increase electricity use for lower temperature heat in industry 71% from 2019 levels by 2030
    — Reduce coal-fired power generation 72% from 2019 levels by 2030, and retire up to around 70%, or 1,417 gigawatts, of coal-fired power capacity by 2030
    – – –
    Absurdly unrealistic…
    (5.2 times the 2020 total)
    (3.2 times the 2020 total)
    (26 times the 2020 total)
    (11 times the 2020 total)

    ’18 million heat pumps each year’ – sourced from where?

  77. oldbrew says:

    Artificial snow undermines ‘green’ winter Olympics.

    But experts say the reliance on man-made snow undermines Beijing’s pledge to hold a “green” Games.

    Using large quantities of power and resources to create snow in the water-scarce region is “irresponsible”, said Carmen de Jong, a geography professor at France’s University of Strasbourg.

    “We could just as well hold the Olympics on the Moon or on Mars,” she said.

  78. Paul Vaughan says:

    ob wrote: “Absurdly unrealistic…”
    the article I linked on the recent “cold” thread says a pandemic-equivalent is needed every year until 2050 to achieve whatever/something (sounds like overwhelming destruction no matter the terminology-spin – I’m absolutely terrified of what their extreme obsession will do to innocents of lesser financial security in the far-northern hemisphere)

    …but reacting to that bait-chain is counterproductive (psychologically, financially, etc.), so here’s something healthier to consider

    that was referenced by this which broadens to that

  79. Paul Vaughan says:

    one more

  80. oldbrew says:

    Whirling Triffids are now Invading our Seashores
    By Viv Forbes

    Posted on December 30, 2021
    “I saw them now with a disgust that they had never roused in me before. Horrible alien things which some of us had somehow created, and which the rest of us, in our careless greed, had cultured all over the world. One could not even blame nature for them.” – Bill Masen, in “The Day of the Triffids”

    Wind turbines need a huge area to generate significant electricity. An area the size of Wales would need to be covered in wind turbines just to meet one sixth of UK’s daily energy needs.

    So for years now, subsidised wind energy investors have been razing ridge-lines, felling forests and slicing birds, bats and insects. They trash the landscape to benefit a few landowners and speculators in a vain attempt to produce cheap reliable electricity from a low density, unpredictable, intermittent energy source. This is all driven by a blurry green vision that humans can change the climate by manipulating the atmosphere.

    But neighbours and nature-lovers are fighting back. So now the wind speculators are racing for off-shore space in shallow seas.

    “The Day of the Triffids” is coming for coastal communities as these towers of whirling knives accelerate their invasion of coastal waters. They pose lethal danger to sea birds – beheading or de-winging pelicans and petrels, seagulls and sea eagles, gannets and grebes, kites and gliders. They also endanger coastal shipping, barges, helicopters, fishermen and tourists. And the noise pollution from pile driving and turbine whine is affecting whales and seals. And they need a mess of new transmission cables to get the electricity connected, ashore and distributed to users.

    “Net Zero” targets and subsidies threaten to drive a nine-fold increase in demand for wind turbine ocean space – estimated to cover an area the size of Italy well before green energy nirvana is reached.

    These turbines need energy to mine and manufacture the rare metals, steel, concrete and plastics needed to build and erect the towers and transmission lines in offshore waters – a careful analysis will show an energy deficit over their short lifetimes. And after every cyclone or tsunami, mangled turbine trash will pollute coastal waters and beaches – most of this trash cannot be recycled and will become toxic landfill. Mining operations have to lodge financial bonds to cover decommissioning, waste disposal and land rehabilitation at the end of the mine life – why are wind and solar “farms” exempt from these liabilities?

    And imagine the defence vulnerability of scattered towers and transmission lines to sabotage from hostile submarines or drones.

    Proven electricity generators driven by coal, gas, hydro or nuclear with a small land footprint are far less damaging to the environment of land and sea than the Whirling Triffids.

  81. Paul Vaughan says:

    mods: 1 link caught in filter (I haven’t read any of these – just linking to them)

  82. oldbrew says:

    Lubos M writes:

    The German Green Party prides itself on being a socially permeable party. Yes, as you can see you don’t need academic degrees to have a distinguished career in it, let alone actually graduating from a prestigious university, saving yourself the insane stress of studying and taking exams. You do, however, need to be in the right party and be an ardent and committed supporter of the most correct ideology, which the fight to save the planet from warming due to CO₂ now represents. And then they will be able to decide the fate of tens of millions of people or the whole of the EU with billions of subsidy euros without worrying about physics or mathematics and all those useless laws of nature. These are probably meant to be encouraging signals for the young Green supporters in Germany. To let young Germans know that the Greens are serious about them, they have pushed through a programme proposal from the new governing coalition in Berlin to change the voting law so that 16-year-olds can vote.

  83. johnm33 says:

    This is speculative so I’ve placed it away from the ‘solar influences’ thread.
    First as a non scientist I find the idea/model of accretion of the solar system in a plane orthogonal to the direction of travel, whilst moving at 140km per second ridiculous, so I’m presently thinking the planets/moons once were cores of the various gas giants, and that there is some unexamined hierarchy of composition that should be informing us of something.
    So if once part of a smaller ‘sun’ the independent earths core began as a maximally condensed form of ionised iron, and perhaps from that time was suffused with free protons/H+ which have slowly been making their way to the surface as in This study has the advantage of making some sense of the hydrogen ‘boiling’ out of the mud at the kola hole and the presence of so much water, whilst also offering an explanation of the sources of energy which drive vulcanism and earthquakes. Like me they’re not chemists and leave unexamined the potential of some of the substances created, in hydrogens journey, as solutes, some would be created in situe at above critical temps instantly dissolving rocks and causing a complex series of further reactions.
    It may be that this video indicates the catalyst which sets off the cascade of energy release that can alter the climate depending whether it releases dust into the atmosphere or heat into the oceans. That is gamma rays penetrating the earth randomly trigger exothermic reactions which cascade, also since the 40-50gev range react with ionised iron it may be that any that reach the core react with it’s iron creating breakdown products of protons, alpha particles and heavy metal atoms which all get squeezed out of the core together?

  84. oldbrew says:

    Let’s hope not…

  85. Paul Vaughan says:

    Translation of Pukite’s latest using 4 of top 5 terms of lunisolar LOD model
    3.7954550713413 = slip(0.999978614647502,0.0374012078891933)
    3.79545507134122 = slip(0.999978614647502,0.0404251731690623)
    3.91778870218625 = slip(0.999978614647502,0.0754402464065708)
    121.551129443737 = beat(3.91778870218625,3.7954550713413)
    121.551129443827 = slip(0.999978614647502,0.0250046080730993)

  86. oldbrew says:

    Pukite refers to ‘the 27.55 day anomalistic Mm cycle’ and ‘the 27.212 day lunar draconic pattern’.
    I don’t know if this is relevant to the analysis, but anyway…

    The evections in longitude and latitude are the inverse, so to speak, of the anomalistic and draconic months respectively. It can be seen for example in the Saros period, i.e. the sum of the numbers of the pairs in each case will be 2*223 (synodic months).

    Likewise with the full moon cycle: 18 FMC = 251 SM = 251+18 AM = 251-18 EV (long.)
    (lunar librations)
    – – –
    Apsidal: Anomalistic months, full moon cycle, evections in longitude, apsidal cycle
    Nodal: Draconic months, draconic years, evections in latitude, nodal cycle

  87. oldbrew says:

    Pukite: This is the strongest factor of the ascension cycle described in the solar and lunar ephemeris published recently by Sung-Ho Na. As highlighted above by numbered cycles, ~20 occur in the span of 120 years.

    300 occur in 1799 anomalistic years…

    A proof of De Rop’s long-term lunar cycle (1799 anomalistic years)

  88. Paul Vaughan says:

    correction: uses all 5 terms – supplementary
    0.0374012078891933 = axial(0.499989307323751,0.0404251731690623)
    0.0250046080730993 = axial(0.0754402464065708,0.0374012078891933)
    LOD lunisolar model terms & cumulative r^2
    1 13.660791 0.713
    2 13.63339592 0.824
    3 9.1329 0.881
    4 27.55455 0.926
    5 14.7652945 0.931
    121.551129443736 = beat(2.07778842665675,2.04286775582734)
    121.551129443737 = beat(1.95889435109313,1.92782588425258)
    frequencies to ease lookup:
    0.481280955832948, 0.489507946438271, 0.510492053561729, 0.518719044167052

    read the rationale

  89. Paul Vaughan says:

    may be a misunderstanding in play here
    the curiosity is the lack of upfront framing as
    121.551129443827 = slip(0.999978614647502,0.0250046080730993)
    since we’re all already familiar with the 9.1329 day term in LOD lunisolar

    node out (weather right or wrong) sum observers will instinctively fixate on:
    60.7755647219137 = 121.551129443827 / 2
    60.7755647218686 = 121.551129443737 / 2
    but no need to judge while exercising the mind (weather correctly or not)

  90. Paul Vaughan says:

    121.551129443737 = beat(2.07769610383939,2.04277851014076)
    0.48130234164279, 0.489529332248113
    check it over carefully

  91. oldbrew says:

    5 Jan 2022
    Kazakhstan: Government resigns amid violent fuel price protests

    In Kazakhstan, local media are reporting that eight members of the security services have been killed on the fourth day of protests.

    A touchy subject to say the least.

  92. oldbrew says:

    In 1979 Skylab fell to Earth due to increased solar activity, which expanded the atmosphere and increased drag on the space station.

  93. oldbrew says:

    An Ancient Greek Astronomical Calculation Machine Reveals New Secrets

    Scientists have a new understanding of the mysterious Antikythera mechanism that challenges assumptions about ancient technology
    January 1, 2022

    [click on image to enlarge]

  94. oldbrew says:

    JANUARY 5, 2022
    Malaspina Glacier, world’s largest piedmont glacier, surges approximately every 10 years
    by University of Alaska Fairbanks
    – – –
    How does it ‘know’ when ~10 years have passed?

  95. Paul Vaughan says:

    400 ka “super ENSO

    “East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) […] we propose that super ENSO mean state strongly modulated the EAWM strength […] to generate the 400 kyr cycle […]”

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    ‘most likely’ … ‘should’

    “Pacific super ENSO state is sensitive to variations of the maximum and minimum equatorial insolation (Cane, 1998; Kukla and Gavin, 2005), thus the 400 kyr cycle in the ENSO records were most likely derived from the equatorial insolation forcing which is modulated by long eccentricity (Ashkenazy and Gildor, 2008).”

    “Importantly, any external or internal forcing of the tropical (monsoon) climate system at higher-than-orbital frequencies (e.g. solar, ENSO) should also be amplified at Milankovitch frequencies by the monsoon.”

  97. Paul Vaughan says:

    2020: hemisphere differences in response of sea surface temperature and sea ice to
    precession and obliquity (modeling study) — (Weather southern westerlies Test)

    2014: SST phases in the open-ocean and margins of the tropical Pacific; implication on tropical climate dynamics

    “Comparisons of the SST records from these three areas indicate that SSTs are not simple responses to their local insolation but, rather can be strongly impacted by local geography, such as continental proximity, upwelling, and ocean and atmospheric circulation.
    These results suggest the GHGs and early warming in the southern high latitude may be not the major factors controlling the tropical Pacific SSTs variability at the orbital time scale.”

    figures 5 & 6 due interpretive care (externally synchronized internal heterogeneous mix$spins$fan$ zero goal owe bull leverage$surfUS$Tee$)
    2009: Migration of the subtropical front as a modulator of glacial climate

    “Here we test whether northward migration of the subtropical front (STF) off the southeastern coast of South Africa acts as a gatekeeper for the Agulhas current5,6, which controls the transport of heat and salt from the Indo-Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean.
    This suggests that during these cooler stadials, the STF moved northward by up to 76 latitude, nearly
    shutting off the Agulhas current.”

    What do they totally miss here?
    “Forcing at 100-kyr and 400-kyr frequencies is amplified, relative to half-precession, by increasing the fraction of the year over which the maximum and minimum equatorial insolation is time-averaged28.”

    N/S monsoons hint: more careful tropical – not just equatorial extremes but spatially-meandering-in-time tropical – insolation aggregation criteria

  98. Paul Vaughan says:

    400 ka Agulhas – see figure 3 gray vs. white shading curves D & E (near bottom)

  99. Paul Vaughan says:

    2020: Inter-hemispheric synchroneity of Holocene precipitation anomalies controlled by Earth’s latitudinal insolation gradients

  100. oldbrew says:

    Rutland ichthyosaur fossil is largest found in UK

    The largest UK example of a predator that roamed the seas at the time of the dinosaurs has been uncovered.

    The 33ft (10m) long ichthyosaur fossil, which is about 180 million years old, was found at Rutland Water Nature Reserve.

    Re. ‘roamed the seas’ – Rutland Water is about 60km inland now. BBC2 TV series, Digging for Britain will feature the story, 8pm on January 11 (then on BBC iPlayer).

  101. oldbrew says:

    ‘The European-average temperature for December 2021 was 0.21°C below the 1991-2020 average, and the coldest December since 2012.’
    – – –
    Very cold in some eastern parts…
    across Scandinavia and northeast Europe, temperatures were below average, with Sweden having its first colder-than-average December since 2012. A temperature of –20.9°C in St. Petersburg, Russia, also broke a daily record set in 1893.
    = = =
    Arctic Meltdown Delayed Again!
    JANUARY 9, 2022

    As we start the new year, Arctic sea ice is at its highest extent since 2004, for this time of year

  102. oldbrew says:

    Impact of the astronomical lunar 18.6-yr tidal cycle on El-Niño and Southern Oscillation
    Ichiro Yasuda [Oct. 2018]


    Even though El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a tremendous impact on global climate and society, its long-term forecast remains difficult. In this study, we discovered a statistically significant relationship between ENSO timing and the 18.6-year period lunar tidal cycle in the mature-phase (December–February) ENSO time-series during 1867–2015 and extending back to 1706 with proxy data. It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle, and La-Niña tended to occur in the 3rd, 12th, and 16th years. These tendencies were also confirmed by corresponding sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) distributions; particularly Pacific SST and SLP spatial patterns in the third La-Niña and the tenth El-Niño year well resemble those of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings contribute to understanding and forecasting long-term ENSO variability.

  103. oldbrew says:

    Google knows more about the Earth’s climate than Roy Spencer? Absurd.

    “Unreliable and harmful claims”: This website has been demonetized by Google
    January 7th, 2022 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. has been demonetized by Google for “unreliable and harmful claims”. This means I can no longer generate revenue to support the website using the Google Adsense program.

  104. oldbrew says:

    Green jobs update… 🙄

  105. Michele says:

    Large vulcanic eruption vs Solar cycle

    Start SC24 (2010-11) :

    El Hierro
    Puyenne cordon callue


    + 11 years

    Start SC25 (2021-22) :


    We are on the way ….

  106. oldbrew says:

    Totally predictable, clueless…

    Council-backed energy firm Together Energy latest to go bust
    Published 1 day ago

    Following Warrington Borough Council’s initial £18m investment in Together Energy, the authority later lent it a further £20m.

    The council said its “vision” was to be “part of a company that tackles the climate emergency by delivering 100% green energy to customers, contributes to reducing fuel poverty and provides local jobs in Warrington”.
    – – –
    Supplying gas was never ‘100% green energy’. Waffle about ‘vision’ doesn’t work, just provide local services.

  107. oldbrew says:

    JANUARY 19, 2022
    ‘Game changer’ e-moped batteries spread from Taiwan across Asia

    Companies in China, the United States and Israel have struggled to provide easy access to swappable batteries for e-cars, in part because of the high cost of building charging facilities and the time needed to charge much larger cells.

    But the tech works better for mopeds, said Gogoro founder and chief executive Horace Luke, as the batteries and stations need not be so large.
    . . .
    The facilities already outnumber petrol stations in four major Taiwanese cities, the company said, and vice-president Alan Pan told a news conference last week that the firm’s goal for 2022 was to “surpass the number of petrol stations island-wide”.

  108. oldbrew says:

    Auroras are supposed to be the most colorful forms in Arctic skies. Move over, auroras. The polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) have arrived:

  109. oldbrew says:

    Big freeze in Saudi Arabia turns waterfall to ice
    Saturday 22 January 2022

    The natural ice sculpture is described as “unexpected and dazzling” in a country more usually associated with desert climate.
    [30 secs. video]

  110. oldbrew says:

    Earth working in mysterious ways…

    JANUARY 21, 2022
    Teleconnection from North Atlantic contributes to persistence of cold surges over South China Sea
    — Chinese Academy of Sciences

    The researchers found that nearly 80% long-lived cold surges over the South China Sea were preceded by a negative phase of quasi-stationary SCA [Scandinavian] pattern. Furthermore, the connection was mainly conducted by facilitating blocking occurrence through the extensive anticyclone over central Siberia.

    “This work has an implication for the extended weather forecast,” said Dr. Pang Bo, the lead author of the study. “The teleconnection originated from North Atlantic can affect weather phenomena over the South China Sea.”

  111. oldbrew says:

    The case for an ocean-bearing Mimas from tidal heating analysis [2022]

    Our model accounts for tidal heating caused by Mimas’ eccentricity and libration and uses a depth-dependent rheological profile in the ice. We find that the ability of Mimas to host a 24–31 km ice shell over an ocean depends on the rheology of the ice, the surface temperature, and the basal heat flux. We find that, using the most reasonable assumptions, Mimas would have the suggested ocean and ice shell thicknesses today.
    – – –
    JANUARY 19, 2022
    Uncovering evidence for an internal ocean in small Saturn moon

  112. oldbrew says:

    Smart meter money pit…

    Vastly expensive roll-out of smart energy meters described as a ‘waste of money’ – because equipment will become obsolete
    17 January 2022

    — Putting smart energy meters in our homes has cost £11billion so far
    — This has been paid for by customers through higher bills
    — However, they rely on 2G and 3G signals, which mobile operators will cut off
    — Customers will still pay another £2billion for devices obsolete by 2033

  113. oldbrew says:

    Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice Cover Over the Last Century
    Dec. 2021

    The Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake has increased by ∼30% over the last century—consistent with Arctic sea ice loss allowing stronger air-sea interaction and is ∼8% of the global uptake.
    . . .
    How would this “heat-loss\sea-ice\OHT” relationship have played out in the absence of global warming? As natural climate variability is strong in the Arctic-Atlantic sector, we speculate that the wind forcing would then have dominated the variability. AW inflow is partly wind-driven, and we found an increased wind-driven AW inflow (Figure 12b).

  114. oldbrew says:

    JANUARY 27, 2022
    Radiocarbon dating from prehistoric cemetery reveals human stress caused by global cooling event 8,200 years ago
    by University of Oxford

    New radiocarbon dates show the large Early Holocene cemetery of Yuzhniy Oleniy Ostrov, at Lake Onega, some 500 miles north of Moscow, previously thought to have been in use for many centuries, was, in fact, used for only one to two centuries. Moreover, this seems to be in response to a period of climate stress.
    . . .
    Radiocarbon dating of the human remains and associated animal remains at the site reveals that the main use of the cemetery spanned between 100-300 years, centring on ca. 8250 to 8,000 BP. This coincides remarkably closely with the 8.2 ka dramatic cooling event, so this site could provide evidence for how these humans responded to a climate-driven environmental change.

  115. Paul Vaughan says:

    folk us
    rush in
    peace together record safety sense

    suggestions legacy: too boldly go no. where? passed yesterday’s fleeting msm headlines a pawn hindsight

    sum c[on]sistent sea who’s mean wile 19th rows ab out add(JSUN)Tdifference in
    2 -5 -1 4
    1 -3 -1 3 (19th row)
    pour rum-meter Tweaks tropical sidereal …or[what?]ever we’ll weather:
    89 + 89 = 178 = 2+3+5+7+11+13+17+19+23+31+47

    doveφant ablative amour sys.COtoo getheRsingClon g_earth-venus f(ace)sing pace Tree dough min(U+N) h!11stat^e

  116. oldbrew says:

    No milder winter here?

    JANUARY 29, 2022
    Thousands of flights canceled as Eastern US braces for winter storm

    The National Weather Service warned of “whiteout conditions and nearly impossible travel at times,” along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, with snowfall accumulations greater than a foot expected in parts of the same region.

    The governors of New York and New Jersey declared a state of emergency while Boston Mayor Michelle Wu declared a snow emergency.

    The storm will produce extremely cold temperatures with dangerous wind chills Saturday night into Sunday morning, the NWS said.
    . . .
    The blizzard comes on the heels of a similar winter storm that blanketed a swath of Eastern North America—from Georgia to Canada—just two weeks ago, cutting power to thousands of homes and also disrupting thousands of flights.

  117. oldbrew says:

    The modern sunspot maximum (fewer spotless days) from the 1930s to the end of the century: SC17-18 to SC22-23 inclusive on this list…

    Wikipedia: The following table is instead divided into (unofficial) cycles starting and ending with a maximum, to give a better feel for the number of spotless days associated with each minimum:

  118. oldbrew says:

    Climate derangement syndrome claims another victim…

    Humanity could be wiped out in 80 years’: Ex- London mayor Ken Livingstone’s climate change fears
    And Sadiq Khan has little power to change it, the controversial ex-mayor tells MyLondon

    29 JAN 2022

  119. oldbrew says:

    JANUARY 28, 2022
    Extreme exoplanet has a complex and exotic atmosphere
    by University of Bern

    The atmosphere of Earth is not a uniform envelope but consists of distinct layers that each have characteristic properties. The lowest layer that spans from sea level beyond the highest mountain peaks, for example—the troposphere—contains most of the water vapor and is thus the layer in which most weather phenomena occur. The layer above it—the stratosphere—is the one that contains the famous ozone layer that shields us from the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation.

    In a new study published in Nature Astronomy, an international team of researchers led by the University of Lund show for the first time that the atmosphere of one of the most extreme known planets may have similarly distinct layers as well—albeit with very different characteristics.

  120. Paul Vaughan says:

    climate exploration nostalgia: “almost perfect synchronization between the three tidal harmonic intervals and submultiples of the sidereal orbital period of Jupiter” (p.24)

    subtly past notes scattered up to ~2.4 Ma

  121. oldbrew says:

    The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature [2018]

    by W. Jackson Davis 1,2,*ORCID,Peter J. Taylor 1 and W. Barton Davis 1
    1 Environmental Studies Institute, Santa Cruz, CA 95062, USA
    2 Division of Physical and Biological Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA

    The finding here of a natural climate cycle that oscillates on a centennial scale and impacts
    temperature in the NH has further implications for the debate about anthropogenic global warming
    (AGW). It has been considered widely that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human
    activities is responsible for the contemporary global warming signal. Recent research shows,
    however, that neither atmospheric CO2 nor marginal radiative forcing by CO2 is generally correlated
    discernibly with global temperature over the past 425 million years [3]. Therefore, neither atmospheric CO2 nor marginal radiative forcing by CO2 caused temperature change in the ancient climate [3].The same study showed that contemporary marginal radiative forcing by atmospheric CO2 has declined by approximately two-thirds since the beginning of the Industrial Age owing to the well-known logarithmic relationship between radiative forcing and atmospheric CO2 concentration [3].

    Progressively larger concentrations of atmospheric CO2 therefore yield progressively smaller global temperature change, minimizing any possible impact of CO2 on global temperature. [bold added]
    – – –
    Even assuming CO2 is an important (or ‘marginal’?) climate factor in the first place… 🤔

  122. oldbrew says:

    It’s so cold in the US, freezing iguanas are falling out of trees

    As temperatures drop below zero in Florida, locals are faced with an unexpected aerial bombardment
    31 January 2022

  123. oldbrew says:

    SC24 vs SC25 update – we have a match…

  124. oldbrew says:

    How carbon border taxes create their own problems…

    The unintended consequences of CBAM on the EU Industrial Strategy
    Feb 2, 2022

    In this scenario, products that are manufactured abroad and imported into the EU will be more competitive than EU-made ones on the home market of many European companies.

    At the same time, products that are manufactured in third countries will be more competitive than EU made-ones on global markets, translating into a competitive disadvantage for manufacturing in Europe and triggering a substantial loss of European jobs.
    – – –
    No change to CO2 and EU workers lose jobs.

  125. oldbrew says:

    Another setback for dark matter theory…

    FEBRUARY 4, 2022
    Observing more disk galaxies than theory allows

    Most galaxies visible from Earth resemble a flat disk with a thickened center. They are therefore similar to the sports equipment of a discus thrower. According to the Standard Model of Cosmology, however, such disks should form rather rarely. This is because in the model, every galaxy is surrounded by a halo of dark matter.
    . . .
    “There are apparently significantly more flat disk galaxies than can be explained by theory.”

  126. oldbrew says:

    Feb 4, 2022

    Hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses were without power on Friday after a winter storm dumped sleet and heavy snow on a wide swath of the central United States this week, and more treacherous weather threatened parts of the Plains and New England.

  127. oldbrew says:

    Newsweek: Texas so cold that trees are exploding
    By CFACT | February 5th, 2022

    Newsweek reports that an “arctic cold front in north Texas lowered temperatures to a point that caused trees to explode, prompting residents to compare the resulting noises to gunshots.”

    Latitude of Texas: 26°N to 36°N approx. – a long way from the Arctic.

  128. oldbrew says:

    Prediction of Solar Cycles: Implication for the Trend of Global Surface Temperature
    Efiong A. Ibanga, Godwin A. Agbo, Etido P. Inyang, Funmilayo Ayedun and Loretta O. Onuora
    Published online: 30 December 2020

    This brief communication examined the
    controversial predictions of solar activity grand
    minimum expected to be accompanied by LIA
    conditions and global surface temperature rise by
    ~4.8 oC as at the beginning of 2100 occasioned
    by a continuous rise in anthropogenic GHGs
    emissions, both of which situate simultaneously
    in the remaining part of the 21st century. Results
    show that the character of the next grand episode
    will most likely be a minimum which will give
    rise to low global surface temperature with the
    coldest phase around 2046±11. Also, it will most
    likely be 0.1°C above the current baseline in
    2100 as opposed to 4.8°C predicted by global
    circulation models. The persistence of long-term
    high solar-geomagnetic activity trend into the
    early 2000s most likely contributed to the
    observed warming through the direct solar
    irradiance climate forcing and indirect
    amplification through ultraviolet absorption,
    modification of stratospheric ozone and
    atmospheric transparency. The implication of
    these is that the contributions of solar and
    geomagnetic activity forcing of the recently
    observed climate scenarios may most likely have
    been underestimated in climate model
    experiments. The currently observed decrease in
    the rate of climate warming, which commenced
    with the hiatus (1998-2013) is most likely due to
    the declining solar-geomagnetic activity and not
    exclusively GHGs emissions.

  129. oldbrew says:

    FEBRUARY 7, 2022
    New atlas finds globe’s glaciers have less ice than previously thought

    The worldwide survey, published in Nature Geoscience, measures the velocity and depth of more than 250,000 mountain glaciers. The research revises earlier estimates of glacial ice volume, now suggesting that there is 20% less ice available for sea level rise in the world’s glaciers than previously thought.

    The results have implications on the availability of water for drinking, power generation, agriculture and other uses worldwide. The findings also change projections for climate-driven sea level rise expected to affect populations around the globe.

  130. oldbrew says:

    FEBRUARY 7, 2022
    Tonga eruption sent ripples through Earth’s ionosphere
    by Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    Caption: The vertical red line in the data plot indicates the time of the eruption. The horizontal squiggles show electron density profiles over time, as recorded in the signals of four GNSS constellations, or groups of satellites: GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and BeiDou. The slanted dashed and dotted lines indicate the velocity of the waves. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/GDGPS

  131. Paul Vaughan says:

    ” ‘Once in a millennium’: Record-breaking rogue wave measured off Vancouver Island”

    interesting article …and the closing sentence is genuinely funny:

    “CEO, added […] “[…] thrilling indicator of the power of coastal intelligence to transform marine safety.” “

  132. oldbrew says:

    Juno and Hubble data reveal electromagnetic ‘tug-of-war’ lights up Jupiter’s upper atmosphere
    03 February 2022

    Researchers from the University of Leicester’s School of Physics and Astronomy used data from Juno’s Magnetic Field Investigation (MAG), which measures Jupiter’s magnetic field from orbit around the gas giant, and observations from the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph carried by the Hubble Space Telescope.

    Their research provides the strongest evidence yet that Jupiter’s powerful aurorae are associated with an electric current system that acts as part of a tug-of-war with material in the magnetosphere, the region dominated by the planet’s enormous magnetic field.

    Illustration of the mechanism behind Jupiter’s ‘tug-of-war’ – the delicate current cycle driven by Jupiter’s rapid rotation and the release of sulphur and oxygen from volcanoes on its moon, Io. Credit: Emma Bunce/Stanley Cowley/Jonathan Nichols/University of Leicester

  133. oldbrew says:

    Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle [2016]
    François Gervais
    Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences & Techniques, François Rabelais University, Parc de Grandmont, 37200 Tours, France

    Time series of sea-level rise are fitted by a sinusoid of period ~60 years, confirming the cycle reported for the global mean temperature of the earth. This cycle appears in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The last maximum of the sinusoid coincides with the temperature plateau observed since the end of the 20th century. The onset of declining phase of AMO, the recent excess of the global sea ice area anomaly and the negative slope of global mean temperature measured by satellite from 2002 to 2015, all these indicators sign for the onset of the declining phase of the 60-year cycle. Once this cycle is subtracted from observations, the transient climate response is revised downwards consistent with latest observations, with latest evaluations based on atmospheric infrared absorption and with a general tendency of published climate sensitivity. The enhancement of the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal oscillations which is found up to 71% faster than the atmospheric CO2 increase, focus on earth greening and benefit for crops yields of the supplementary photosynthesis, further minimizing the consequences of the tiny anthropogenic contribution to warming. [bold added]

    Click to access challenge.pdf

  134. oldbrew says:

    FEBRUARY 17, 2022
    Tesla faces another US investigation: unexpected braking

    U.S. auto safety regulators have launched another investigation of Tesla, this time tied to complaints that its cars can stop on roads for no apparent reason.

    The government says it has 354 complaints from owners during the past nine months about “phantom braking” in Tesla Models 3 and Y. The probe covers an estimated 416,000 vehicles from the 2021 and 2022 model years.

    No crashes or injuries were reported.
    . . .
    “Complainants report that the rapid deceleration can occur without warning, and often repeatedly during a single drive cycle,” the agency says.

    Many owners in the complaints say they feared a rear-end crash on a freeway.

  135. pochas94 says:

    A good way to understand the workings of a Hall effect thruster is a sunspot. Differential rotation of the outer layers of the sun has a stretching effect on the torroidal lines of magnetic force, causing them to rupture and reconnect. Reconection with an adjacent line causes the two connected fields to contract and twist into a flux tube. The flux tube then ejects the solar plasma from inside the tube via the Hall effect, the tube gains buoyancy, and a visable sunspot forms at the surface. This amounts to an exigent demonstration of the Hall effect. Agree? Disagree?

  136. oldbrew says:

    Pacific decadal variability over the last 2000 years and implications for climatic risk
    Open Access
    Published: 17 February 2022

    Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 33 (2022)

    The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an index which defines decadal climate variability throughout the Pacific, is generally assumed to have positive and negative phases that each last 20-30 years. Here we present a 2000-year reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, obtained using information preserved in Antarctic ice cores, that shows negative phases are short (7 ± 5 years) and infrequent (occurring 10% of the time) departures from a predominantly neutral-positive state that lasts decades (61 ± 56 years). These findings suggest that Pacific Basin climate risk is poorly characterised due to over-representation of negative phases in post-1900 observations. We demonstrate the implications of this for eastern Australia, where drought risk is elevated during neutral-positive phases, and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of climate risk for all locations affected by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The initiation and future frequency of negative phases should also be a research priority given their prevalence in more recent centuries.
    [bold added]

  137. oldbrew says:

    Ice halo round the Moon, plus auroras – from Quebec, Canada.

  138. oldbrew says:

    FEBRUARY 21, 2022
    The formation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was very different than previously believed
    by Alfred Wegener Institute

    The measurement data revealed a large sediment body, a sediment drift, on the eastern flank of Pine Island Trough, one with no counterpart on its western side. “Because of the Coriolis effect produced by Earth’s rotation, this asymmetrical deposition of a sediment drift on the trough’s eastern side but not the western one can only have been produced by a deep-water current that flowed toward the coast from north to south,” says Uenzelmann-Neben. “In order for that to occur, the ocean circulation at the time of the deposition had to be similar to today’s conditions, that is, the prevailing westerlies and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current had to have been located far to the south. And similar to today, the deep water upwelled through the trough must have been comparatively warm.”
    . . .
    “Our study offers compelling evidence that at the time of the great glaciation, warmer deep water upwelled near the Amundsen Sea shelf and delayed the West Antarctic Ice Sheet’s expansion to the sea,” the AWI Geophysicist explains. “This important and unexpected finding emphasizes the tremendous importance that ocean currents had even during the formation phase of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and continue to have today. Armed with this additional knowledge concerning the ice sheet’s earliest phase, forecasts on its future stability and ice retreat can now be improved.”
    [bold added]

  139. oldbrew says:

    The Guardian seizes another chance to press for less fossil fuels.

    Is Putin’s Ukraine invasion about fossil fuels?

    The continent has grown over-reliant on Russian gas – but Putin knows he is vulnerable to Europe cleaning up its energy sector

    Is this really another war over fossil fuels?
    No. Energy resources are not the focus of this threatened conflict. Vladimir Putin has a long history of territorial ambitions in former Soviet nations, which he made explicit this week, and of attempts to exert political control over Ukraine. Putin is said by supporters to be concerned over the possibility of Nato expansion, although many analysts say this is a pretext.

    So the Ukraine crisis is not a war over resources, but it has many implications for resource use. Russia is effectively weaponising its dominance over European gas supply for political ends. Reducing reliance on Russian gas is an urgent necessity for the EU to reach net zero emissions, and would also diminish Putin’s political leverage over the EU.

  140. oldbrew says:

    45 killed in 3 months in accidents while clearing snow in Japan
    KYODO NEWS – 15 hours ago

    SAPPORO – Snow-clearing accidents killed 45 people in the three months through January, emergency authorities said Thursday, as Japan’s snowy regions have been hit by heavier falls than usual this winter.

    Many of the victims in 10 prefectures including Aomori died after being buried by snow falling from the roofs of their homes, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency said.
    . . .
    Over 90 percent of the victims were over the age of 65, according to the agency.

  141. oldbrew says:

    The geodynamic reasons of decade changes of climate
    Nov 27, 2012
    Authors: N S Sidorenkov

    An analysis of meteorological observations and the spectral analysis of the daily air temperature anomalies have shown that the hot summers and the severe winters caused by the beats (slow periodic variations in the resulting amplitude) of the interacting temperature oscillations with close frequencies. The 35-year basic period of beats in the temperature and other hydrometeorological characteristics takes place due to the interference between their oscillations with periods of solar (365 days) and lunar (355 days) years. In 2010 over European Russia, the phases of the “solar” annual oscillations of hydrometeorological characteristics coincided with those of their basic “lunar” oscillations. As a result, the amplitudes of these oscillations added up and reached extreme values. Time series of the amount of sunshine are analyzed. It is shown that cycle with characteristic time about 35 years and quasi four-year fluctuations of the large amplitude manifest themselves in changes in cloud amount and the amount of sunshine. The revealed cycles are generated by lunisolar tides. The quasi 35-year changes of the cloud amount lead to fluctuations of the radiating balance. The amplitude of these fluctuations increases with the growth of latitude and becomes especially high in polar areas where the day (summer) and the night (winter) can last half a year. Big fluctuations of the thermal regime of polar areas generate radical disturbances of the interhemisphere circulation that lead to greater anomalies of the exchange of the air masses, heat, water vapour and pollution between the northern and southern hemispheres. These processes are responsible for the epochs of the atmospheric circulation, the decade variations in the intensity of the Indian monsoon, changes of the ice masses in Antarctica and Greenland that lead to the decade variations in the parameters of the Earth’s rotation. [bold added]

    Cycle: 35.3 tropical (solar) years = 36.3 lunar years

  142. oldbrew says:

    “This spectacular sunset was possibly caused by the return of the plumes of aerosols launched into the high atmosphere by Tonga,” says Vital, who has seen several episodes of colorful sunsets since the eruption. “Their timing is consistent with a 2-week circumnavigation period at Rio’s latitude.”

    Aerosols from the volcano’s plume have persisted in the stratosphere for more than a month after the eruption and could stay for a year or more, according to atmospheric scientist Ghassan Taha of the Goddard Space Flight Center.

  143. oldbrew says:

    MARCH 2, 2022
    A solar illusion: Coronal loops may not be what they seem
    by National Center for Atmospheric Research

    Many coronal loops—ropey strands of plasma that scientists have long thought existed in the Sun’s atmosphere—may actually be optical illusions, according to a new paper that challenges prevailing assumptions of what we know, and don’t know, about the Sun.
    . . .
    “This study reminds us as scientists that we must always question our assumptions and that sometimes our intuition can work against us,” Malanushenko said.

  144. oldbrew says:

    How triple-pane windows stop energy (and money) from flying out the window

    We know triple-pane windows conserve energy, reduce noise, and lower home energy bills; now they are getting more affordable
    . . .
    A new generation of thin triple-pane windows are less expensive and can be more easily retrofitted into existing double-pane frames. As their name implies, triple-pane windows have three panes of glass that create a double-decker sandwich, which gets filled with an inert gas, such as krypton, that provides additional insulating power. These next-generation windows take advantage of economies of scale provided by the same advanced glass manufacturing technology that churns out thin but durable TV and computer screens.
    – – –
    Might make sense with today’s inflated energy charges.

  145. oldbrew says:

    Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves (2020)

    Whether Arctic amplification has contributed to a wavier circulation and more frequent extreme weather in midlatitudes remains an open question. For two to three decades starting from the mid-1980s, accelerated Arctic warming and a reduced meridional near-surface temperature gradient coincided with a wavier circulation. However, waviness remains largely unchanged in model simulations featuring strong Arctic amplification. Here, we show that the previously reported trend toward a wavier circulation during autumn and winter has reversed in recent years, despite continued Arctic amplification, resulting in negligible multidecadal trends.

  146. Paul Vaughan says:

    in moderation

    filter 1929 dates carefully

    review no doubt
    (both above & below)

  147. Paul Vaughan says:

    378 comments is more than enough.

    Horizons model fits ~1929 to g_2 & g_3 a little too ominously.
    IT figures – no doubt – what dates to avoid.

    2545.29208283569 = 1470*2320.36535147335/(1470+2320.36535147335)*√8
    2320.36535147335 = 1/(1/11.8619853539775-3/29.4571475580751+1/84.0206409383306+1/164.770047052777)
    2361.95454276386 = 1/(-2/11.8619853539775+5/29.4571475580751+3/84.0206409383306-6/164.770047052777)
    131779.371339915 = 1/(3/11.8619853539775-8/29.4571475580751-2/84.0206409383306+7/164.770047052777)

  148. Paul Vaughan says:

    21 Script Editors

    1929 ‘too witch they tune’ greatly depressing models
    who’s “holding the pen” foe ruse?
    (“fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me”)

    “off-topic” mnemonically figures no doubt CO$
    “21 pilots two” share a feature of ALL nasa models
    (weather standish, seidelmann, 1929, 2022, or otherwise)

    22.14 = φφ * 8.45 (J+S axial)
    42 = 22.14 + 19.86 (J-S beat)
    equivalently: average(19.86,22.14) = 21 —- no doubt so we don˚T forget who tricked us last time

    supplementary for comparison
    (to get a sense of variation)

    2545.31128760387 = 1470*2320.41049512911/(1470+2320.41049512911)*√8
    2320.41049512911 = 1/(1/11.8619855026421-3/29.4571454557105+1/84.020643654292+1/164.770038219334)
    2361.8925023025 = 1/(-2/11.8619855026421+5/29.4571454557105+3/84.020643654292-6/164.770038219334)
    132118.972155493 = 1/(3/11.8619855026421-8/29.4571454557105-2/84.020643654292+7/164.770038219334)

    There’s a mild edge-effect in the gaussian longitude-rate central limit estimates because 4270 = s(4370) is too much (as a proportion) of 20000 (nasa horizons model width).

    mass stir politicians weather left & right too know more “bury center” tricks
    using nasa horizons output post-1582 be well-aware:
    4627.09501221791 = 365.25 / 365.2425 * 4627

  149. Paul Vaughan says:

    mods: technical note on 4627 is caught in filter

  150. Paul Vaughan says:


    “Gregorian and Julian Calendar Dates
    Input calendar dates 1582-Oct-15 and after are assumed to be in the extended Gregorian calendar system. Prior dates are assumed to be in the Julian proleptic calendar.”

  151. Paul Vaughan says:

    Clarification: 4270 edge effect on U & N even over narrow time range; 936 easily overcome to estimate J & S over wide time-range — 936 being the JS perihelion analogy to 883 JS sidereal – documented in Standish (1992) table linked from previous discussion; 4270 is the orbital invariant perihelion analogy for JSUN – biases sidereal longitude rate estimates in short-duration models.

  152. oldbrew says:

    Please note: we’ve moved to Suggestions 46 now.

    No more comments here. Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s