Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 8)

  1. oldbrew says:

    Now it’s Moon theory under the microscope.

    ‘Computer model shows moon’s core surrounded by liquid and it’s caused by Earth’s gravity.’

    ‘When set into motion, the model showed that a liquid layer over the core gave the same gravity readings as scientists have found when measuring the real moon. This suggests, the team reports, that a liquid layer does truly exist, and likely has been there for a very long time.’

    ‘If the moon was created due to a large body striking Earth, why did it not cool down over the four and half billion years since then, to the extent that it would be too cold for a liquid layer to exist today?’

    Why indeed.

  2. tallbloke says:

    Andrew alerted me to this one earlier. I’m having a think about it.

  3. oldbrew says:

    More Moon theory today.

    ‘Scientists have worked out the reasons for the distorted shape of our Moon.’

  4. tallbloke says:

    OB: Please put a post together and publish it, I have to get going early today. Chuck in Mathis’ ablation thoughts on the reason for the dusty Earth facing side vs the craggy darkside too.

  5. OK Roger,
    Time to throw away the nonsense, and try to think.
    Uncle Al is correct, all mass is chiral with respect to time, (the progression of a cycle through time). EMR with no mass, has a pitch of 3 x 10^8 m/s through time. Every aggregate of mass has a lower pitch. Some of the really weird mass may be left handed and go through time in the opposite direction. Time to acknowledge no knowledge by earthlings, and high time to try to think!

  6. Bob_FJ says:

    Hi Rog,
    Following several debates with AlecM over his ideas for a controversial new bit of quantum theory, I’m wondering if you might be interested in a draft article which for a parody in its title might be; Is there a 4th law of Thermodynamics?
    It would discuss Alec’s intuitions such as IR standing waves in the atmosphere and the implication that photons have “intelligence” because they will not leave home unless they know that there is nothing to interfere with their journey, e.g. higher temperature matter or some bits of standing waves at all frequencies. (I guess he agrees standing waves don’t happen in SW). And, and, and…… It would include construction of a few demonstrative graphics.

    Incidentally, I was puzzling why he doesn’t identify himself, given his potential as a Nobel Laureate in physics, so I did a Google on _alecm aka_ and there are claims that he is the same person as Spartacusisfree, Mydogsgotnonose and Turnedoutnice. There are at least four points that suggest that this is true; for instance a parallel development in “their” ideas using similar phrases over the past three years. (although Spartacus engages less frequently).
    I rather like this quote by commenter Harry Passfield e.g. @ :

    I’m Spartacus! Claimed AlecM,
    And my dog’s got no nose, now and then.
    I’ve never been Georgy,
    Nor even a Formby,
    But it’s quite turned out nice, once again!

    I just wonder why someone needs multiple ids to push single belief system…

    Oh, and it is also claimed that Doug Cotton is AKA ‘Alex Hamilton’ and ‘visiting physicist’…. I was wondering if AlecM was a sock puppet for them or Dragon Slayers, but could not find anything.

    PS my old email address is dead.

  7. tallbloke says:

    Bob: Sounds interesting, go for it. Send it to Tim C or submit it via the talkshop feedback form so he gets a copy.

  8. tallbloke says:

    Will J: I think of the fastest particle/wave as the most matter-free manifestation of energy. Any matter it gets involved with slows down its frequency. Matter presents impedance. The distribution of matter in the universe in concert with the rate of energy flow through it generates a fundamental frequency with a long wavelength. This sets matter in motion. Within this, all subharmonics of shorter and shorter wavelengths oscillate slightly out of tune with the whole of which they are a part, because some of the energy is converted to other kinds of dissipation – heat, sound, life, etc

    Just one of many ways of looking at and thinking about the curious commensurabilities the mainstream prefers to ignore.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Roasty-toasty southern half of Britain in August? Piers Corbyn says it’s due to the jet stream:

    ‘Enjoy it while you can. There is unlikely to be another August like it in your lifetime.’

  10. tallbloke says: 0August 1, 2014 at 9:23 am

    Will J: I think of the fastest particle/wave as the most matter-free manifestation of energy. Any matter it gets involved with slows down its frequency. Matter presents impedance. The distribution of matter in the universe in concert with the rate of energy flow through it generates a fundamental frequency with a long wavelength. This sets matter in motion. Within this, all subharmonics of shorter and shorter wavelengths oscillate slightly out of tune with the whole of which they are a part, because some of the energy is converted to other kinds of dissipation – heat, sound, life, etc

    Just one of many ways of looking at and thinking about the curious commensurabilities the mainstream prefers to ignore.

    Thank you, I think miss my really weird point. Time is the “only” linear. Everthing else is 3D rotational with a pitch to the linear time, dependent on mass. Cyclic negative mass goes the other way in time. Think chirality!

  11. tallbloke says: August 1, 2014 at 9:23 am
    “Just one of many ways of looking at and thinking about the curious commensurabilities the mainstream prefers to ignore.”
    How about hard thinking of the non-commensurate like PI and one. Do not think that for long, without really good booze, or a very lovely sweet young thing!

  12. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, are you aware of the work of this group

    Click to access cp-7-987-2011.pdf

    It was posted by milodonharlani says:
    August 2, 2014 at 10:25 am on this WUWT thread

  13. tallbloke says:

    ACO: Thanks, looks interesting.

  14. clivebest says:

    You guys might be interested in my new post on the moon’s influence on weather patterns – especially this last winter. see: How the moon affects the weather

  15. Kristian says:


    I was wondering if you would care to put this post of mine up for discussion here on your blog. I would be very thankful for and interested in any knowledgeable feedback, input, thoughts, suggestions and (constructive) criticisms from you and/or any of the esteemed contributors/commenters lurking about …

    “On Heat, the Laws of Thermodynamics and The Atmospheric Warming Effect”

    [reply] fyi: Tallbloke is on holiday at present

  16. A C Osborn says:

    Rog, another case of a truthful Scientist’s persecution by a University with ties to Wind Power.

    Sacked for telling the truth about Wind Turbine noise.

  17. Roger Andrews says:

    Hi TB:

    If you want to put up a post rebutting some of the absurd claims that the ocean acidification scaremongers are making these two articles are hard to beat:

  18. fyi: Tallbloke is on holiday at present
    Let us all hope that this does not become a true walkabout!

  19. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, one in the eye for Leif (constant sun) Svalgaard on the 20th century Solar maximum.

  20. Bob_FJ says:

    Tim C,

    Re Tallbloke comment here on Aug 1 about my proposed article: ”Bob: Sounds interesting, go for it. Send it to Tim C or submit it via the talkshop feedback form so he gets a copy.”

    I’ve tried over several days to send it to you on your webform ‘TT Admin Contact’ seemingly without success. I have [mod: OS stuff removed], and when I hit ‘Submit’, nothing seems to happen. Your system automatically loads my dead ‘Optusnet’ email address but I get the same result when updating it to my current [mod: snip] address.
    I also alerted Roger via email but did not know he was on holiday. When does he return?
    I don’t know your email address.

  21. tchannon says:

    Standard WordPress form. Spam checks are done but a check on whether WordPress knows you is also done and tells us. Attempts to change known details causes trouble with other facilities so I expect it does on forms too.

    If you have any WordPress login, do so first.

    If you have a WordPress login where the details are wrong, correct those at your personal page. (or maybe delete the account if it is dead)

    Otherwise,no account, at a guess clear WordPress cookies (might need a browser restart), then try.

    Sidestepping automatic systems is a pain.

    Emailed you anyway.

  22. oldbrew says:

    ACO – the paper referred to was also covered by The Hockeyshtick here:

    and his interview was reported at Notrickszone:

    Somebody submitted it for the prize offered to anyone ‘disproving’ IPCC theories of man-made warming:

    I quote: ‘What deniers are doing is saying there are natural cycles, therefore it is a foregone conclusion that today’s warming trend is a natural cycle. This is a false argument and there is even a name for it. It is called the fallacy of four terms.’

    I wonder how long CO2 levels have to go up for, with no effect or even a negative effect on global temperatures, before they change their tune?

  23. Bob WEBER dropped by my place and left me a nice toy to play with..

    and look what l found..


    HOPING you will do a post on the above planetary config’ at Christ..mas time …

    Would GOD announce the birth of HIS SON (JESUS) in the flesh with HIS signature PHI in the solar system ( October 2 BC )? !!!! Yes HE would !!


    if that’s a bit religious for Tallbloke blog…..

    When is the next time this spiral PHI configuration ( Pluto to mercury in descending order) will re:emerge? or has it in the past


    How many PHI spiral config’s are there in a finite/ infinite time period ?

    I have seen this spiral; config’ before

    BUT… NEVER…ALL the planets in this config!!

    Did some notes on this graph here

    7thAugust 2014

    I am excited at that find!!! Frigin’ awesome !!

  24. oldbrew says:

    @ WC

    I’ll have a look at it. The Rosetta ‘land on a comet’ feature is novel 😉

  25. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, it appears Greg Laden has really pissed off Hockey Schtick, see this thread.

  26. tchannon says:

    Laden jars are empty, lots of spitzen und sparkzen, shocking waste.

  27. oldbrew says:

    ‘Did a hyper-black hole spawn the Universe?
    Big Bang was mirage from collapsing higher-dimensional star, theorists propose.’

    Well, whatever 😉

  28. A C Osborn says:

    This is a very interesting paper on the Hockey Schtick that shows that the CO2 in a bottle experiment, supposedly showing how greehouse gases work, it actually uses the wrong physics. Argon which does not absorb IR heats up even quicker and more than CO2.

    This is the cornerstone of Greenhouse gas theory blown away in one fell swoop.
    Love it.

  29. oldbrew says:

    This is the abstract of the paper Michele’s link refers to.


    The role of Earth tides as a relevant controlling factor of a variety of geological processes, including seismicity and volcanism, is widely debated. Stromboli Volcano, Italy, is well known for its persistent explosive activity and represents an ideal setting to investigate tidal effects on the energy release and eruptive behaviour of volcanoes. Herein, we report new evidence that tidal stresses may modulate the timing of eruptive activity at volcanoes in an open-vent state. We report statistically significant correlations of the peak eruption frequencies to fortnightly tidal maxima (i.e. full and new moon) during a 17-month-long period of activity in 2010–2011: in fact, the number of explosive events per hour increases by >85% during tidal maxima with respect to the average values. We suggest that tidally induced cycles of compression–decompression of country rocks controls fluctuating magma supply rate from the shallow plumbing system and, thus, eruption frequency.

    ‘We suggest that tidally induced cycles of compression–decompression…’ [etc.]

    A question: how can gravity cause compression? It’s supposed to attract things 😉

  30. Chaeremon says:

    C-FACT PRESENTS a new documentary film project: Climate Hustle, the global warming showdown ( ).

    Climate Hustle will reveal the history of climate scares, examine the science on both sides of the debate, dig into the politics and media hype surrounding the issue, show how global warming has become a new religion for alarmists, and explain the impacts the warming agenda will have on people in America and around the world.

    Climate Hustle Trailer:

  31. oldbrew says:

    @ Chaeremon

    I look forward to the BBC buying the rights to show that one 😉

  32. Chaeremon says:

    I forgot to attribute to the above [h/t 3rd part]

    @oldbrew: the way I understand BBC (Al Gore’s opera magna; no science in debates; etc) they will have to afford double-price for doublespeak: by editing the parts with physical evidence out of the documentary 😉

  33. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, yet another one in the eye for Leif (constant sun) Svalgaard on the 20th century Solar maximum. This time using his own latest ammended data against him LOL.

  34. Chaeremon says:

    Carl Wunsch (& Peter Huybers) contemplate on Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations (2005) in Nature [h/t Dr Norman Page in email]:

    The 100,000-year timescale in the glacial/interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene epoch (the past ~700,000 years) is commonly attributed to control by variations in the Earth’s orbit1. This hypothesis has inspired models that depend on the Earth’s obliquity (~ 40,000 yr; ~40 kyr), orbital eccentricity (~ 100 kyr) and precessional (~ 20 kyr) fluctuations2, 3, 4, 5, with the emphasis usually on eccentricity and precessional forcing. According to a contrasting hypothesis, the glacial cycles arise primarily because of random internal climate variability6, 7, 8. Taking these two perspectives together, there are currently more than thirty different models of the seven late-Pleistocene glacial cycles9. Here we present a statistical test of the orbital forcing hypothesis, focusing on the rapid deglaciation events known as terminations10, 11. According to our analysis, the null hypothesis that glacial terminations are independent of obliquity can be rejected at the 5% significance level, whereas the corresponding null hypotheses for eccentricity and precession cannot be rejected. The simplest inference consistent with the test results is that the ice sheets terminated every second or third obliquity cycle at times of high obliquity, similar to the original proposal by Milankovitch12. We also present simple stochastic and deterministic models that describe the timing of the late-Pleistocene glacial terminations purely in terms of obliquity forcing. [paywalled]

  35. Andrew says:

    Interesting ? :

    [reply] Yes, should be of interest to Tallbloke

  36. stephen parker says:

    Hi, whats happened to the predictions page? Whats your view on the up coming uk winter? .Jeff Sharpe thinks its going to be brutal. What does ulric lyons say?

    [reply] hi – note that Tallbloke’s away travelling this week

  37. Scute says:

    NASA’s new Arctic reasearch initiative. Article just released on the NASA site:

    It’s called ARISE and is looking at how sea ice loss affects cloud cover and the radiation budget. Should be useful data. They are using the summer ice melt season but appear to be happy to extrapolate their findings to long-term ice loss. I suppose that makes sense but I wonder if they might oversell it.

  38. oldbrew says:

    This looks interesting to students of climatic behaviour.

    ‘How much do climate patterns influence predictability across the United States?’

  39. Scute says:

    This is global warming and EU nazism rolled into one ludicrous example of bloated, misinformed meddling.

    I curse my 1800W hoover for not being powerful enough. At 900W they won’t pick up a thing.

  40. Has anyone found where in these lectures where Dr. Feynman describes the power transfer in the case of opposing field strengths at the same frequency? All I has found is that the field strength and flux are the same because of no opposition ever. Does no one ever lread what AlecM has to say about the atmosphere?

  41. doug Proctor says:

    The OCO-2 CO2 satellite: 16 orbits to cover the planet, 9000 readings per 24 hr period. Orbital period?

    The data should be able to determine Salby’s opinion of CO2 sources?

    Need full year, really 3 years?

    Somehow data change over fill year has to show the 2 ppm/annum rise. Error bars be sufficient?

    Be able to mask land or oceans? Isolate main cities?

    Oceans must be net absorbers by cagw theory, otherwise will not “acidify”.

    The Amazon data must not show annual increases.

    Pre-seeding and post-harvest areas but warm areas should be positive contributors while grow season be net absorbers. Winter areas should be neutral to slight negative. Carbonate mountain chains should be net positive whenever warm: closed system limestone caves will kill you, especially if a low pressure system rolls over.

    At this time we could identify what to look for with the forthcoming CO2 data to verify A-CO2 contributions per IPCC, before warmists move the goalposts or claim skeptics are cherry-picking.
    [mod: spelling corrected, ambiguous, hope it is correct –Tim]

  42. Bob Weber says:

    Tallbloke, would you consider reblogging either or or even ?

    azleader, who wrote the last article, whose article formed the basis for the first article I linked (WUWT), had an epiphany, and recanted his earlier Leif-based position:

    azleader | Aug 22, 2014 at 11:07 am

    “Count me in with those viciously deceived by “Leif and others” nonsense. lol!!!”

    Welcome to the club!

  43. tchannon says:

    Bob, the topic involving Leif has been discussed behind the scenes and then not raised on the Talkshop.

  44. Bob Weber says:

    OK. Blessed be the peacemakers.

  45. oldbrew says:

    Europe’s two global positioning satellites have gone into the wrong orbit.

    Some kind of positioning problem 😉

  46. tchannon says:

    Several reasons Bob but for me that was in mind too. The decision rests with Rog and he hasn’t expressed his view yet.

    Doing what is a pre-paper involving others and seems to be a long work ought to be a considered article with new information, not me-too have a fest. Someone has to put time and effort…

    As it happens I can think of how to independently cross check what the paper purports. Don’t know whether they have, suspect not unless there is a painstaking detail person on board.

  47. Bob Weber says:

    I believe in independent verification. Trust but verify. It’s Ok, I handled it anyway.

  48. David A says:

    A thought for investigation. The gap between RSS and GISS is ever increasing. However I have seen little information on where this gap is greatest, geographically speaking. So is the spread increasing uniformly? Is it greatest over the oceans, or perhaps the polar regions as this Chiefo post could indicate as a possibility. GISS code instructs; ” “Skip some regions where SST is impacted by nearby ice floats…That 166 to 180 loop says that anything from 76 N to 90 N is to have the data tossed out.”
    Perhaps the largest spread is land based?

    Anyhow I have a 55 hour a week job, and also lack the expertise to research this, yet I think it would make a good post.

  49. oldbrew says:

    @ David A

    Bob Tisdale discussed this a few years ago.

    ‘GISS uses 1200km radius smoothing to fill in the areas of the globe with sparse surface temperature readings, and the area this has the greatest impact is the Arctic.’

  50. tchannon says:

    It would David A. I have gridded datasets here *except* for GISS which does it’s own thing.

    That in itself may be part of the problem, different methodologies at the fringe of anything actually valid.

    Then there is the data extraction and presentation problem. This probably needs 3D low pass filtering, perhaps also a way to resample to a common grid. I think it needs someone with the fancy tools at their disposal.

  51. tchannon says:

    European Union satellite positioning system, that’s good news, slows down what is a diabolical system which needs fighting against at every step. It is about milking money and about people control, mandated by law. Machiavellian. And we pay to create this.
    Don’t go believing the spin but do notice the slid in control laws where that is none of their business and violates fundamental laws of real world engineering, never ever impose how, history is littered with the painful and harmful results.

    There are five known about systems, might be more.
    American (dual system civi / mil)
    EU state system

  52. oldbrew says:

    ‘Small variations in the climate system can result in dramatic temperature changes’ – new study

    Can, but probably not in our epoch:

    ‘The preconditions which gave rise to rapid temperature changes during the last ice age do not exist today. But this does not mean that sudden climate changes can be excluded in the future.’

    Paper: ‘Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes’

  53. oldbrew says:

    TC: looks like the two EU GPS satellites are useless. Too far away from their correct orbit, not enough fuel to bridge the gap and continue to operate.

    ‘Experts said it seemed unlikely the two misplaced satellites could be brought into the right orbit and used.’

  54. tchannon says:

    Been a bad time recently for space launches.

    Fun considering the EU satellites were launched by a Russian rocket. (no, these are professionals but it makes for a smile)

    Not the photo the chap wanted, ouch

  55. oldbrew says:

    So it’ll be a bit longer before a Mach 20 bomber pilot can go out, do the business and be back before his burger goes cold 😉

  56. Roger. Do I have to add more spurious nonsense to “Tim Folkerts and Will Janoschka: Two toy planet thought experiments”. I would much appreciate discourse with those that can do. How to get it to to 565, without being stupid!

  57. Roger Andrews says:

    I just put up a post over at Euan Mearn’s blog that may be of interest to people here at the Talkshop.

    [mod: noted, patience, not getting involved at present. Might contact you soon.–Tim]

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    would like to see TalkShoppers views on 50:50 BS sometime relatively soon

  59. oldbrew says:

    Younger Dryas event was probably the result of a ‘cosmic impact’.

    ‘large body of evidence now obtained … is strongly consistent with an origin by cosmic impact at ≈12,800 cal BP’

  60. manicbeancounter says:

    Many will be aware of the Hiroshima Bomb widget at It is based on the claim that 4 Hiroshima bombs of heat are absorbed by the climate system every second. I have calculated how long it would take at this rate of heat accumulation to raise the average temperature of the oceans by 1 Celsius. It is at least 570 years. This is consistent with the data in the UNIPCC AR5 WG1 report.
    By switching from average warming rates (as is used with surface temperatures) to Hiroshima Bombs, I propose that Skeptical Science switches perceptions in two ways. First, from tiny year-on-year changes that are extremely hard to measure, to something on a scale nobody in their right mind could deny. Second, from what might be the start of a long-term trend into a catastrophic problem in the present.

    [reply] if they need to resort to propaganda tricks, that tells its own story i.e. they must have little of substance to put forward

  61. Chaeremon says:

    Rodolfo Gustavo Cioncoa, Willie Soon (New Astronomy, Volume 34, January 2015): A phenomenological study of the timing of solar activity minima of the last millennium through a physical modeling of the Sun–Planets Interaction (paywalled)

    From the abstract:
    We numerically integrate the Sun’s orbital movement around the barycenter of the solar system under the persistent perturbation of the planets from the epoch J2000.0, backward for about one millennium, and forward for another millennium to 3000 AD. Under the Sun—Planets Interaction (SPI) framework and interpretation of Wolff and Patrone (2010), we calculated the corresponding variations of the most important storage of the specific potential energy (PE) within the Sun that could be released by the exchanges between two rotating, fluid-mass elements that conserve its angular momentum …

  62. Chaeremon says: September 1, 2014 at 7:35 am

    Rodolfo Gustavo Cioncoa, Willie Soon (New Astronomy, Volume 34, January 2015): A phenomenological study of the timing of solar activity minima of the last millennium through a physical modeling of the Sun–Planets Interaction (paywalled)

    From the abstract:
    We numerically integrate the Sun’s orbital movement around the barycenter of the solar system under the persistent perturbation of the planets from the epoch J2000.0, backward for about one millennium, and forward for another millennium to 3000 AD. Under the Sun—Planets Interaction (SPI) framework and interpretation of Wolff and Patrone (2010), we calculated the corresponding variations of the most important storage of the specific potential energy (PE) within the Sun that could be released by the exchanges between two rotating, fluid-mass elements that conserve its angular momentum …
    How about if angular momentum can be interchanged with sensible heat as a conservation property? Is this what determines surface temperature on this Earth? Instead of the exchange of thermal EMR, ‘tween Sun and space which only seems to create a stable biosphere and interesting weather? Only dronk wondering!

  63. A C Osborn says:

    This is a question for the “Space Weather” and Solar System guys.
    Is there any data on where the “Solar Flares” that are not pointed at the earth are pointing.
    ie do they point at Galactic Targets or Solar Targets or are they completely random?
    Is there a space map of flares?

  64. tchannon says:

    On the assumption flares travel straight upwards the original direction will be provided by the Greenwich/Hathaway sunspot dataset in combination with a flare database (says which sunspot group was responsible). A large part of it is a database programming matter.

    Has to point at where earth will be a few days later, taking into account propagation speed and any deviation of path.

    Taken some digging in the archives and grey matter, try this and updates, think there is another post and are corrections
    Not sure we finished the work, took a lot of computer time. (we because I had a lot to do here)

  65. A C Osborn says:

    Thanks guys, Tim’s is closest to what I was thinking, ie is one of the major Planets”pulling” the Flare out of the sun.
    I imagined a 3d solar system with the flare paths projected within it.

  66. tchannon says:

    If there is a code it hasn’t been found. I think many have looked.
    Logically there will be an effect however small. It could be that painstaking work can unearth something, a work of dedication.
    A major effect is highly unlikely given how many people work on solar matters.

  67. A C Osborn says:

    Chaeremon says: September 1, 2014 at 7:35 am
    Leif is not going to like that.
    I wonder if WUWT will post anything about the paper.

  68. Chaeremon says:

    Germany’s flagship green energy policy ‘in tatters’, (3 hours ago):

    Angela Merkel was hailed as the ‘Klimakanzlerin’, or ‘Climate Chancellor’ in … But the McKinsey report says Germany is so far behind its key …

    Also in MSM Germany … “Germany is not a model”, “Merkel fails on climate change” …

  69. oldbrew says:

    Asteroid 2014 RC the size of a large house will fly by the Earth on Sunday 7th Sept., at one tenth of the Earth-Moon distance – about 22000 miles says NASA. It was first spotted on 31st August.

  70. oldbrew says:

    See Prof Brian Cox get slaughtered in print by Lubos Motl – strong stuff e.g.:

    ‘If he actually were a competent particle physicist rather than a pathetic environmentalist clown pretending to be a caricature of a scientist…’

    Read on:

  71. Scute says:

    Oldbrew. It’s interesting to see that asteroid has a minimum orbital intersection distance with the Earth of 3.39291E-05 km. I make that 5075km from geocentre which means its orbit crosses right through the Earth if they were placed at their MOID positions. In other words it would be a direct hit without any need for inward deflection. I’ve only seen one other asteroid with a sub-surface Earth MOID and that hit us on 1st Jan this year. That MOID was about 500km.

  72. Doug Proctor says:

    WUWT Sept 6th: HADSST3 temp & RSS lower troposphere anomalies:

    A cross-plot of the two would be interesting. It looks like the sea temps rise before the atmosphere temps rise. Which, of course, means that the heat comes from the water, doesn’t go into the water.

    Outside of that, the correlation is good from 1979 until a year or two ago, when the sea temps rise but the lower troposhere doesn’t. So either we have a sudden burst of air temps coming or …. I don’t know. Perhaps there is new adjustments going on in the SSTs?

    The cross-plot, if it shows sea temps rise before air temps, would be extremely important, no?

  73. tchannon says:

    Running database updates for RSS and 3SST as I write. RSS takes ages (very slow server), SST has completed so it’s not my code.

    Have a look tomorrow.
    Strictly I need a map of SST co-ords so I can extract a mirror from the RSS data.

  74. Doug Proctor says:


  75. tchannon says:

    Been tangled up all day with a nightmare of CAD software which has broken printing and trying to find enough space to do some woodwork. Not owning a table saw poses problems. All a bit sad, we have long been messed up by enviro stupidity, what wood is available is dreadful and horribly expensive. Wastage is awful. Meanwhile pretty good wood is being burnt?

    Twiddle fiddle, not really valid, parks ball.

    Doing various iffy things best correlation at SST delayed ~1.4 months. I hope I have this the right way around.

    SST is running hotter than RSS of recent. Doesn’t look important.

    This ought to exclude land areas. Ought to equalise the time response.
    As-if I trust data to be time centred and given Nyquist is treated more than sloppily the stuff will kick all over the place on artefacts. Not seen the WUWT post.

    Plot here 47kB, not inline image to save user’s bandwidth off topic.

    Caveat emptor

  76. oldbrew says:

    New Chinese paper provides more evidence for Gleissberg and de Vries cycles.

    ‘On the centennial timescale, the quasi-periodicities around 88 and 210 years suggest a strong link between solar activity and monsoon rainfall’

  77. Ian Wilson says:

    It appears that if you post comments to WordPress that are too close together in time, WordPress tags you as a spammer and all of your subsequent comments go down the rat-hole.

  78. tchannon says:

    I’m surprised Ian. Is this documented for Ignore anything about (self hosted, lots of plugins, no managed spam system)

    A good way around this is comment when logged in.

  79. tallbloke says:

    Welcome back Ian, sorry you had so long to wait for a resolution.
    Tim’s suggestion is a good one. I think you have a wordpress account don’t you? If not, just create an empty blog on and select the ‘private’ option so it’s not seen. In fact, you’d do well to move your content to wordpress anyway, it’s a much better system, and I’d be able to reblog your stuff so much more easily. 🙂

    I think there might be an automated way of importing your content too, have a look at wordpress faqs.

  80. oldbrew says:

    There’s a ‘press this’ option in wordpress:

    ‘Press This provides a lightning-fast way to grab text, images, or video from any website and post it to your blog without ever visiting You can also use Press This to quickly share a link on your blog.’

  81. tallbloke says:

    And then you sort out the resulting mangled wreckage at you leisure. 🙂

  82. oldbrew says:

    I used it for several recent posts here – no problem AFAIK.

  83. tallbloke says:

    Well, keep on doing it then. It must have improved since I last tried it. Does it store the images on the wordpress server or link to the originals? If the originals, I would prefer you to save them locally, upload to wordpress, and substitute them into the post. That way, we don’t abuse the originator’s server.

  84. oldbrew says:

    Ah – it just copied the headline and the link when the default ‘standard’ was used, like this:

    BBC News – Scottish independence: UK party leaders in No vote trip to Scotland.

    I put my own text in or used cut&paste – no images copied.
    So not what you need to copy an entire post from a non-wordpress site unless there’s another option, which there is:

    ‘Simply highlight the text you want to grab with your cursor, then click the Press This bookmarklet in your browser. A pop-up publishing window will appear.’

    ‘To add images, click the picture frame icon below the title of the post and select the photos you want. You can also add your own commentary if you like.’

  85. oldbrew says:

    ‘Canada says underwater archaeologists have located one of the Franklin Expedition ships lost more than 160 years ago. Their disappearance in the Arctic in 1848 became one of the great mysteries of the 19th century.’

  86. […] few days ago Doug Proctor posed one of his hooks on the Talkshop Suggestions page. This tripped a quick look and I reported back no safe […]

  87. tchannon says:

    X flare, double CME in progress, first has hit, not too bad.

    Watch for aurora

  88. Doug Proctor says:

    WUWT wrote about CO2 changes vs global temp changes. Shows terrible data variability in temps. Probably needs more data averaging than done – the CO2 values are highly averaged but the temp anomalies are not equally so. Or so it appears to me.

    However, gross emissions (cumulative) vs CO2 rise, and net change CO2 emissions vs net change CO2 emissions, look to me a subject that has received very little coverage. What I have seen is only slight increase of rate of CO2 over time vs accelerating increase in emissions: the net impact of emissions looks to me to be declining. And it cannot be increasing absorption by the oceans as the emissions into the atmosphere is immediate, but absorption my the oceans has to be both periodic and slower (due to winter cooling/summer cooling creating different absorption rates, even emissions which are well documented).

    One explanation I have floated before is that the emissions are exaggerated. It is in the interests of all Green groups and Departments to maximize the amount of CO2 released as this increased the alleged threat posed. However, this is a hoisting by own petard problem: the greater the “threat” of increasing emissions, the greater the disconnect between atmospheric ppm CO2, temp rise and CO2 emissions.

    What I envision is a cross-plot of CO2 cum emission volumes and ppm atmospheric CO2, as well as annual emission rates and ppm change. Somehow – I can’t visualize this – there has to be a way to determine residence time of CO2 and – probably – the change in residence time over time. The change in residence time would reflect the buffering effect of the organic world, as warmer water absorbs LESS CO2 than colder water – or it reflects exaggerated emissions.

    Since temps are supposed to be (at incremental levels) linearly correlated to CO2 content, and CO2 content is considered by IPCC to be linearly connected to CO2 emissions, it should be reasonable to cross-plot CO2 emissions with temperature changes. Since the CO2 emissions are annual data for the world, the temp changes would have to be annual as well. It has been said that CO2 absorption by IR is close to maximum already, or that (due to this effect) it has a diminishing effect on a log scale. The last cross-plot should show this.

    The IPCC admit the reduced impact of CO2 with time, but do not say we are already in that “time”. Presently the effect is immediate and mostly linear. But what does this data comparison show?

    Perhaps this work is all done. I’ve looked for it on CO2 sites, Wood for Trees etc., but never found what I am trying to describe above.

    In case you think I am just lazy for not doing the work myself, at the present I am looking at release from my professional job because they have turned the discipline of geology into a computer-generated manipulation of data that gives the “computational” reality (not “representational” reality) I object to, but my objection to this pattern is not all of it. Fundamentally the computer work is outside my brain. The thinking style is very difficult for me, having been born a late Boomer. Identifying probable cause and effect relationships is one thing, the initial portion of science that is more dependent on intuition, creativity and art. Documenting and nailing them down is another thing (for which I have engineering and technical support when I need it at the office).

    Your thoughts are, as always, most welcome.

  89. hi roger, your email thinks this is spam, hence i’m posting it here fyi

    cheers tony

  90. tchannon says:

    Those human assumed patterns do not cause nor are causal.

    Logically something external to them is involved.

    Involved is Coriolis force driving ocean currents, the reason for the equator line and a little studied situation: a top heated fluid. I have seen laboratory results which if I showed them would fool people into thinking it is the nino or whatever.

    A problem I think exists is the terrible state of data, we have nothing good prior to the satellite era.

    What may be happening is a reduction in top heating leads to layer change and an eruption of heat, hence a solar relationship. This does not hold with older data but might in a vague statistical sense.

    Not my scene. Some digging into lab experiments on top heating fluids might be worthwhile.

  91. tchannon says: September 18, 2014 at 1:31 am

    “A problem I think exists is the terrible state of data, we have nothing good prior to the satellite era.”

    Tim, the satellite “data” is good, accurate, and repeatable. What that data may mean is completely wraped in politics. Good science would say “great numbers”. Whatever did I measure?

  92. craigm350 says:

    A Green Party peer and London Assembly member who branded black cabs one of the capital’s “most polluting” vehicles today came under fire for claiming more taxi journeys than all her colleagues combined — including Mayor Boris Johnson.

    A Standard analysis reveals Baroness Jenny Jones claimed for nearly three times the number of journeys Mr Johnson did and nearly six times that of the Assembly member with the third highest journeys claimed.

    Today she said she used more taxis because she does “more work” and lives in a “fairly dodgy” area.

    This bit I loved as it’s likely a major porkie as Southall has a plethora of bus routes. Try living in the countryside and she’ll soon
    understand the true meaning of having no “practical bus route”.

    Two cabs were for just one mile each to and from Southall station because there was no “practical bus route”.

  93. tchannon says:

    Admin note: Had a report of comments posted but vanishing before appearing. That might be exactly what happened.
    Spam content is automatically marked and moved to a store called spam, with very occasional errors by the system. I’ve just been through 111 spam looking for reported missing comments, none. Plenty of handbags, pills, link farming.

    That could happen if the comment was never actually accepted by the server, an issue between the web browser and server, including identity credential problems, ie. the server throws it back at you.

  94. Scute says:

    Here’s a spiteful little programme from Radio Seti which lumps Climate Change skeptics in with Holocaust deniers and UFO abductees:

    Not a single scientific fact proffered, just an hour long object lesson in projection.

  95. David Blake says:


    Can you do a piece on this guy’s theory: (Yes, he acknowledges the website name is terrible).

    I was ready to dismiss it. Then I did a study myself. See this graph. The relationship between the North-South movement of the N-Pole and global temperature is quite striking. In a nutshell he exposes that the movement of the magnetic core of the earth results in changing ocean currents, and via them, air currents, which govern the atmospheric temperature. My graph is plotted using these data and assumes there are 69.2 miles per degree.

    It would be great if some of the clever minds who frequent this blog could put some numbers to his theory. For example: if water is diamagnetic how many gauss would it take to change ocean currents in this way? Do the numbers stack up?

    There’s a You-Tube video of his theory here:

    And a rather pathetic “rebuttal” of his work here:

    If you are interested, but would like me to put forward a more complete post, let me know.


  96. tallbloke says:

    Hi David: Yes, please write up a more complete post and submit it here:

  97. David A says:

    Tallbloke, I have an open question.

    One would assume that the GISS global mean anomaly base never changes, as it is based on the SAME past, 1951 to 1980 period.

    Now if the past anomaly basis, 1951 to 1980, is being changed, ( and they do continue to retroactively change the past, including this period) then current maps may be based against a different anomaly, even if it is the same period. (Indeed, if you were to retroactively cool that past anomaly base period, then new maps based on a different anomaly would appear warmer, relative to a now cooler past.) Which brings up a question… If they are changing the past, does the base anomaly change?

    I bring this up because GISS only states that they base the anomaly on this period, but they do not specify which version of that period is being used. I assumed they would use the original base period (before later changes to that period) for all anomaly readings. But then I remembered that this is climate science.

    thanks in advance.

    Oh, here is a chart of GISS changes (sans the dates of those changes)

  98. Chaeremon says:

    New systematic errors in anomalies of global mean temperature time-series, M Limburg, 2014,

    Click to access E___E_algorithm_error_07-Limburg.pdf

    From the abstract: Existing uncertainty assessments and mathematical models used for error estimation of global average temperature anomalies are examined. The error assessment model of Brohan et al 06 [1] was found not to describe the reality comprehensively and precisely enough. This was already shown for some type of errors by Frank [2];[3] … In addition to the findings in both papers by Frank a very common but new systematic error was isolated and defined here named “algorithm error” … [emphasis mine]

    H/T EIKE

  99. oldbrew says:

    Scientists ‘confounded’ yet again…

    ‘An anomaly in satellite flybys confounds scientists’

    ‘When space probes, such as Rosetta and Cassini, fly over certain planets and moons in order to gain momentum and travel long distances, their speed changes slightly for an unknown reason.’

    ‘…the expert considers, in a study published in Advances in Space Research, that the anomalous behaviour of the probes during their flybys “must originate in something that, although common, we have been unaware of to date, or in an error in the data analysis programs”.’

  100. David A says:

    Chaeremon, interesting study and should be featured here and across the boards.

    “…But as was stated before, in order to simplify the equation we take only into account
    the value of equation (6) and this will now show
    A 95 % confidence interval of these four defined errors alone equals roughly 2 x ±
    0.542 = ± 1,084 °C”

    Now on top of this, if they altered the anomaly base that would put new meaning in hiding the decline.

  101. oldbrew says:

    Lord Stern tries to crank up climate paranoia but ends up sounding like a crank.

    Prof. Richard Tol comments: ‘The report contains three broad claims – none of which stack up’

  102. David Blake says:

    “tallbloke says:
    September 22, 2014 at 2:59 pm

    Hi David: Yes, please write up a more complete post and submit it here:

    Hi Rog.

    I’ve written an article and I *Think* it’s submitted (?) After pressing the submit button it didn’t change page. I hit it again same thing happened. No error message. I don’t want to keep submitting in case I’m flooding your inbox..! 🙂

    Could you let me know if you got it?


    David Blake

  103. David Blake says:

    Edit to above. I’ve added an extra graph using CET, which is worth including (see here So I’ve included that in the article and I’m going to resubmit.

  104. David Blake says:

    Wahh! Same thing happening again! Stays on the same screen. No success or failure message. The (revised) submission is here ( if there are difficulties.

  105. tchannon says:

    David, It ought to work but since it isn’t I’ll email you.

  106. craigm350 says:

    Ooh updated ‘projection’ of an ice free Arctic from the UK Met Office

    Based on projections from current climate models, a plausible date for the earliest ice free (defined as extent less than 1 million square kilometres) summer in the Arctic would be 2025-2030.

    but hang on there’s a get out clause

    Work continues to improve our understanding of the processes driving the ice decline and how they are represented in climate models. This may lead to revised projections of the date for an ice-free summer in the Arctic.

    Well let me do my own ‘projection’ –

    I did ask if they’d do a follow piece on the record Antarctic sea ice levels.

  107. oldbrew says:

    The only safe prediction is that the Met Office will continue to get its ‘projections’ wrong, very wrong or hopelessly wrong. It has a strong track record to back up such claims.

  108. Scute says:


    Here’s an excerpt from an email I sent one of my Guardian reading eco acquaintances yesterday after seeing the Antarctic sea ice graph on WUWT and then trying to find it from the nsidc home page:

    “It’s on the nsidc site somewhere but it’s so well-hidden it may as well not be there. It should be slapped on the front page with a huge headline. Why are they so coy about it? If it was a record minimum it would be all over the site and their ‘for the media’ page and all over the world media. Home page Link:

    nsidc graph from WUWT:

  109. tchannon says:

    Woo what is going on?
    RSS feed for Aljazeera with a duff URL and no record I can find. Never seen that before.

    Story is
    Rockefellers to divest fossil fuel interests
    US oil family dynasty and other philanthropists announce $50bn sale of fossil fuel interets to reinvest in clean energy.

    Bad link

    And I notice a spelling mistake. Hackers?

    Odd things are going on.

  110. tchannon says: September 24, 2014 at 2:59 am

    Woo what is going on?
    RSS feed for Aljazeera with a duff URL and no record I can find. Never seen that before.

    Story is
    Rockefellers to divest fossil fuel interests
    US oil family dynasty and other philanthropists announce $50bn sale of fossil fuel interets to reinvest in clean energy.

    Bad link

    And I notice a spelling mistake. Hackers?

    Odd things are going on.

    Happy Blog moderating, Tim!

  111. oldbrew says:

    Another physics theory runs into trouble…

    ‘Researcher shows that black holes do not exist’

    ‘By merging two seemingly conflicting theories, Laura Mersini-Houghton, a physics professor at UNC-Chapel Hill in the College of Arts and Sciences, has proven, mathematically, that black holes can never come into being in the first place. The work not only forces scientists to re-imagine the fabric of space-time, but also rethink the origins of the universe.’

    Back to square one then?

  112. craigm350 says:

    Scute – I noticed that too. I just checked and my comment is still in moderation. I dug a wee bit and did a search (see link).

    OB – any chance of creating traction on this (see link)? (Not so much my comment but the ignoring of the increasing Antarctic ice trend)

    Are they ignoring the elephant in the room? Even the BBC have mentioned it, so why not the MetO? It’s an important climate story…or at least you’d think it was.

    [reply] note: we ran posts on Antarctic sea ice in January, April and July this year but maybe a different angle is worth a go

  113. oldbrew says:

    De Vries or not de Vries – that is the question. Tim Cullen suggests an extra-terrestrial possibility.

  114. tchannon says:

    Quick scan of that, agreed. I could add more.

    However, DeVries is a family with rising amplitude with period, ~210 is one and being short period it is noticed more often.

    Something I would like to know, currently no answer, is whether the rise follows 3dB or 6dB, the slope.

    Matters are made near impossible by the increasingly poor nature of paleo timelines, in my opinion are much worse than often asserted. Even going back to 0AD is iffy. With dendro tends to hit the one tree reference. In addition there is insufficient recognition that trees can produce more than one ring in a year but also miss one or more years.

    Which reminds me of a tiny article I never posted, probably not Talkshop material, more for a chuckle and minder than making a definite point. Maybe pop it up on my blog later rather than lose it.

  115. tchannon says:

    Massive Linux shell security exploit is active with widespread damage expected for months.

  116. wayne says:

    Now this is super cool and real this time – 3D cloaking:

    Still can’t quite understand how exactly it works but this might be a neat post. Even give instructions to build one yourself if you dig for the link to

  117. Scute says:


    They give the address of their YouTube video. If you freeze it at 00:40 you see the light rays crossing in the centre axis of the lens setup. So if you block the centre you block that light from the background so it doesn’t work. But if you hold your fingers in a ring around the axis it allows light through and your ringed fingers disappear. You can see it gets temporarily blocked as he crosses the axis line with his finger. I’m sure I used to do a variation of this as a kid with a tumbler of water. I know it drove my sister crazy.

  118. Scute says:

    Ref to above: I was talking about the YT video cited at the bottom of the article you linked. That video is different from the one that’s now been embedded in the comment. That does indeed look impressive. The one I watched is this one:

  119. wayne says:

    Scute, evidently the video i posted above is a scaled-up version of the four lens system in your video. As they said, you can scale it up to any size (big lenses) and in the instructions suggest Fresnels because not only can you make the affected area much larger but you can decrease the distance between the four lenses. That must be what the boy is crouched behind, a Fresnel lens. So if it is gathering light around the lens how is that working in that video? Got me scratching. I tried to reload the ‘instructions’ link with the equations but it now hangs at the university site (probably a server overload ;)). This seems a big break-though even though just lenses trickery of sorts.

  120. Scute says:


    Ah yes, Fresnels. I should’ve guessed, being flat. This phenomenon brought back a memory which involved the exact opposite principle. I was looking through a telescope at the beach once, the pay-for-5-mins type. A friend cupped his hand over the other end and I said it didn’t matter because I could still see the whole scene. He said that was impossible because his hand was obscuring the lens. I went on to describe the scene in great detail to his incredulity. I then explained to him that the quarter-inch either side of his palm was enough to give me the whole scene albeit rather more dimly.

    So in that case the light was directed around the outside ring of the lens and not down the centre of the axis, allowing the seemingly obscured scene behind his hand to be viewed. He refused to believe me until he saw it for himself with my hand over the lens.

  121. wayne says:

    Scute, correction… just watched another video that explains how the small boy ‘disappears’ and though authored by the same that was an equivalent example using mirrors, no lenses this time. Cool illusion though.

  122. Scute says:

    Wayne, have you got a link for that video using mirrors?

  123. You can not see the secondary in a Cassegrain telescope or anything directly behind that secondary. Except way over yonder!

  124. oldbrew says:

    ‘NASA rocket has six minutes to study solar heating’

    ‘Understanding how the corona heats remains one of the great, unanswered questions on the sun. The solar surface itself is only about 10,500 F, but further up in the atmosphere, the temperatures rise to million of degrees Fahrenheit – the opposite of what one typically expects when moving away from a heat source. Something heats up that corona, and VAULT2.0 will be watching.’

    From Miles Mathis on ‘the cause of solar cycles’:
    ‘What we are seeing is a charge transference through space which then causes a magnetic reaction on the Sun. What is traveling between the bodies is real photons with real field densities and real spins. These photons can then cause various E/M effects once they hit large bodies that are composed of ions or ion fields.’

  125. linneamogren says:

    Strange molecule in the sky cleans acid rain, scientists discover

  126. tchannon says:

    Looks like Marsha Lester is the torch holder on that one.

    “Marsha I. Lester
    Edmund J. Kahn Distinguished Professor
    Editor, The Journal of Chemical Physics”

    And look here

  127. Sparks says:

    The timing of the Mean anomaly of Uranus vs sunspot record is very interesting.

  128. tallbloke says:

    Hi Sparks: The mean anomaly is proportional to the area swept by the focus-to-body line since the last periapsis. However, it is not an angle, so I think you need to tell us what Right hand ‘Y’axis is meant to be.

  129. Sparks says:

    Hi Rog,

    Sorry I rushed the post,

    The graph is the Mean anomaly (in degrees) of Uranus from Jupiter sampled every 10 years.

    Basically the Y axis is Uranus and Jupiter’s conjunction (or pericentre) and successive points are the change in the mean anomaly. Therefor every 10 years the mean anomaly progresses until it reaches the pericentre of 360 degrees as both Uranus and Jupiter orbits the sun.

    In case you don’t see it, this is important because it shows the change of the ellipse between the two orbits which clearly shows up in the timing of the sunspot record.

  130. Sparks says:

    Notice that the mean anomaly between Uranus and Jupiter from 1885-1965 is longer than the anomaly from between about 1805-1875, this coincides with the sunspot record.

  131. oldbrew says:

    Another Antarctic sea ice record. More bluster from the ‘experts’…

    The Antarctic sea ice is one of those areas where things have not gone entirely as expected. So it’s natural for scientists to ask, ‘OK, this isn’t what we expected, now how can we explain it?‘ ”

    ‘Not gone entirely as expected’? Comical – ‘total fail’ would be nearer the truth.

  132. tallbloke says:

    OB: Blog it. I’m off to the hustings.

  133. tchannon says:

    Suggestions 7 is closed, new page Suggestions 8 created.

  134. Scute says:


    This is the NASA version of the Parkinson interview re Antarctic sea ice. I might have said it was more comprehensive and that the Science Daily version was culled from it. However, the Science Daily one is possibly longer and is a bit different so who knows. Here’s the link so you can decide.

    [reply] thanks Scute – not much difference in fact [OB]

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