Suggestions-8

Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 8)

Comments
  1. tchannon says:

    Mod: so this doesn’t get lost –Tim]

    On Antactica sea ice, couple of comments here on old page

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-7/comment-page-1/#comment-90104

  2. wayne says:

    Mods: I’m sure it must be some kind of hastle but the “A small sceptical…” thread is still stuck on page one instead of coming back to page two. Sorry to mention it, but….

  3. tchannon says:

    Sorry wayne, even blog admin have no control over cloud hosted WordPress software.

    I don’t like the way paging of long comment threads is handled. Turned on to try and help users with small resources, Compromise is currently set at 300, what actually happens, ah.

    It might be worth browser refresh. In my experience it is a good move to occasionally remove all WordPress cookies. It might be keeping track of which page it shows you.

  4. tchannon says:

    Michele, management but no surprise.

    Give it a few weeks, if it is still wrong they can be contacted.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Spiral galaxies – recent research: logarithmic spirals and pitch angles.

    ‘It’s often said that the shape of a spiral galaxy follows the curve of a golden spiral. You can see this, for example, in the image above [see link below]. While it’s often implied that this curve matches exactly, that isn’t the case.’

    ‘The key characteristic of a logarithmic spiral is known as the pitch angle. The larger the pitch angle, the tighter the spiral. For a perfect logarithmic spiral, the pitch angle is constant at every point in the spiral. For galaxies, the pitch angle can vary along different sections of the spiral, since they are not exactly logarithmic spirals.’

    http://briankoberlein.com/2014/10/08/learning-curve/#more-3943

    Wikipedia graphic of a logarithmic spiral:

    Update from the same author: ‘Spirals in a galaxy may arise from density waves’

    http://phys.org/news/2014-10-spirals-galaxy-density.html

  6. Michele says:

    @ Tim

    We’re sure?
    🙂

  7. oldbrew says:

    On a ‘lighter’ note, someone has found a use for solar power:

    ‘Brighten up your garden with cheeky garden gnomes whose colourful hats light up automatically at night!’

    http://www.glow.co.uk/solar-garden-gnomes-3-pack.html

  8. tchannon says:

    Michele,
    I am confused.

    Unisys have an old and new SST plot style. Select via top menu.
    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

    I do not know what that is supposed to show, to me it seems erroneous where it looks like a software mistake. Seawater does not go down to -20C nor does seawater change that much over a year. Stuck plot range variables look a candidate where given a recent change of style, finger trouble.

    I’ve emailed them.

  9. Michele says:

    @Tim
    Thanks for your interest, We await a response from Unisys.
    Bye, Michele

  10. oldbrew says:

    Half the alleged ‘dark matter problem’ just went away, it is claimed.

    http://scitechdaily.com/astrophysicists-reveal-dark-matter-half-previously-thought/

  11. Okay, apologies in advance for this but as a non-technical reader of many climate blogs, I’ve been pondering where I can post a question on Arctic Sea Ice and the AMO without being automatically slammed for having ideas beyond my limited understanding.

    Is the AMO a by-product of a dance between arctic sea ice extent and potential oceanic poleward heat transport? I’m thinking of traffic jam/traffic flow constrained/encouraged by varying sea ice extent.

    So, if we go back to the seventies for example, when ice extent was greater, there would be reduced potential heat transport from the tropical Atlantic. As a result, the Northern Atlantic ssts would be constrained as SST heat would be forced under the ice. Over time (years), the sea ice would be thinned from beneath until it breaks up at the surface. What would we see in ocean temps? Perhaps not too much since sst heat would be used up melting the ice fringes, that is until the sea ice really starts to thin and recede. At this point, poleward heat transport would be encouraged and the ssts would go up (AMO trend upwards). The tropical atlantic would be venting 20 years of stored heat by releasing it at higher latitudes. This in turn would encourage sea ice melt and with reduced albedo, momentum would be gained.

    At some point, with the excess tropical heat vented, transport would slow and we would see a decline in North Atlantic ssts (AMO trends down) which in turn would encourage sea ice extent gain. As it grows, it begins to constrain poleward heat transport once more and the cycle begins again. It never reaches equilibrium because of multiple out of phase forcings, such as ENSO/SOLAR etc. Result: Arctic Sea Ice extent and AMO are dancing eternally?

    I don’t wish to take up your time unnecessarily and thought it might help if I supply a few possible answers.

    A) this is already part of the standard model/understanding
    B) it has been considered and rejected, read about it here (link to paper)
    C) there are no stupid questions – but this comes close
    D) beyond stupid and I shall delete your question to save you further embarrassment.

    Thanks in advance.

  12. tallbloke says:

    WotW: Good summary! Our research into natural forcings shows that the motion of the planets and their resonance with solar activity levels produces the changes which cause the ~60yr oceanic oscillations and other cyclic phenomena such as the QBO and NAO. See our special edition here: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/prp-special-issue/

  13. thanks for the link tallbloke – I’ve escaped without injury!

  14. markstoval says:

    I would like to see a post and thread on what one would say to a moderately informed “luke-warmer” (like some of those at WUWT for example) to explain how CO2 does not really do what they think it does. I think this could lead to another very interesting thread.

    ~ Mark

    [reply] https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/09/12/hockey-schtick-co2-does-what-exactly/

  15. oldbrew says:

    ‘Obama misleads students about climate and energy’ – by Tom Harris and Bob Carter

    http://iceagenow.info/2014/10/obama-misleads-students-climate-energy/

    ‘In reality, CO2 is environmentally beneficial. It is the elixir of life for most of our planetary ecosystems. Without it, life as we know it would end. No evidence exists that the amount humans have added to the atmosphere is producing dangerous warming or, indeed, any climate or weather events noticeably different in frequency, duration or intensity from human experience over the past couple of centuries.’

  16. oldbrew says:

    ‘NOAA Report Destroys Global Warming Link To Extreme Weather’

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/10/09/noaa-destroys-global-warming-link-to-extreme-weather/

    ‘Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have demolished claims by global warming activists that global warming caused or worsened many extreme weather events last year.’

    This is unlikely to be headline news on the BBC 😉

  17. oldbrew says:

    America can no longer process all the crude it is now producing, thanks mainly to shale oil, so exports have resumed. What will the climate-obsessed President say?

    ‘In the U.S., a Turning Point in the Flow of Oil’

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/08/business/energy-environment/reversing-the-flow-of-oil-.html

    ‘The 400,000 barrels the tanker carried represented the first unrestricted export of American oil to a country outside of North America in nearly four decades.’

    Ramping up exports of fossil fuels, critics will surely note, is inconsistent with the Obama administration’s push for a global climate deal.’

  18. Sparks says:

    I’ve cracked it! 🙂

  19. tchannon says:

    This looks a suitable article for the Talkshop but I cannot access the Elsiver website to look, broken.
    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/10/new-paper-finds-significant-solar.html

  20. Anything is possible says:

    Paywalled by the looks of things :

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231014007456

    You’ll have to dip into those “Big Oil funds” (:

  21. oldbrew says:

    If you don’t mind using a 2012 paper there’s this one: ‘Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening’

    ‘Recent research on the phenomenon of substantial decadal variation in sunlight received at Earth’s surface reveals far-reaching environmental implications and proposes a conceptual framework which ties it to prevailing atmospheric aerosol levels.’

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1

    Comet Siding Spring reaches Mars this weekend (19th Oct.)

    http://www.euronews.com/2014/10/13/red-planet-fly-by-comet-siding-spring-swings-past-mars-/

  22. oldbrew says:

    Former UK environment secretary says the global warming pause ‘is old enough to vote’.

    http://www.thegwpf.com/climate-fears-exaggerated-says-ex-environment-secretary/

  23. oldbrew says:

    Natural variability in the Blue Mountains, Australia (from Jo Nova’s website).


    [mod: Tim added link to article on click]

  24. markstoval says:

    Fred Singer has an essay here:

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/10/the_climate_sensitivity_controversy.html

    He says:

    I should note that I am somewhat out of step here with my fellow skeptics. Few of them would agree with me that the climate sensitivity (CS) is indeed close to zero. I will have to publish the analyses to prove my point and try to convince them. Of course, nothing, no set of facts, will ever convince the confirmed climate alarmists.

    Worth a post and discussion I think.

  25. Roger,
    We in the US also are having elections, Here all high claim, they are the best.
    The all lower point out what is wrong, and how someone should fix that!
    What are you “your own self” going to do, to fix the best?

  26. oldbrew says: October 9, 2014 at 9:36 am

    “Spiral galaxies – recent research: logarithmic spirals and pitch angles.

    ‘It’s often said that the shape of a spiral galaxy follows the curve of a golden spiral. You can see this, for example, in the image above [see link below]. While it’s often implied that this curve matches exactly, that isn’t the case.’

    ‘The key characteristic of a logarithmic spiral is known as the pitch angle. The larger the pitch angle, the tighter the spiral. For a perfect logarithmic spiral, the pitch angle is constant at every point in the spiral. For galaxies, the pitch angle can vary along different sections of the spiral, since they are not exactly logarithmic spirals.’

    http://briankoberlein.com/2014/10/08/learning-curve/#more-3943

    Logarithmic is the degenerate case of almost any earthling series or sequence. Fibonacci degenerates not to logarithmic but to the reciprocal series. On a spiral or helix of equal angular interval delta (n). As the angle increases in that counting sequence, consider the “current” radius. The current radius of (n), spiral, or distance z, or z(n) (helix) is “always” “F(n)/F(n) = 1”. In the Fibonacci or the GSR, The reciprical series is defined as, F(n-1) = x, F(n) = 1, and F(n+1) = 1/x. Please solve for x! This works in both directions, like in this Solar system, in this Universe, or in this time! Consider the chirality, for the spiral, or the reversable arrow of time (z), for the helix.

    [reply] “F(n)/F(n) = 1″ – is that what you meant to say?

  27. tchannon says:

    Rigorous treatment of barycentric stellar motion
    Perspective and light-time effects in astrometric and radial velocity data⋆

    A. G. Butkevich and L. Lindegren
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201424483

    Too specialist for general interest.

  28. Will Janoschka says: October 17, 2014 at 3:45 am

    Fibonacci degenerates not to logarithmic but to the reciprocal series. On a spiral or helix of equal angular interval delta (n). As the angle increases in that counting sequence, consider the “current” radius. The current radius of (n), spiral, or distance z, or z(n) (helix) is “always” “F(n)/F(n) = 1″. In the Fibonacci or the GSR, The reciprical series is defined as, F(n-1) = x, F(n) = 1, and F(n+1) = 1/x. Please solve for x! This works in both directions, like in this Solar system, in this Universe, or in this time! Consider the chirality, for the spiral, or the reversable arrow of time (z), for the helix.

    [reply] “F(n)/F(n) = 1″ – is that what you meant to say?

    Yes indeed, “1” is always the local and immediate reference. All else is elsewhen, or over yonder! That recriprocal series is identical to the power series as written by MM! Solve for (x) and get the relationship between sequency, time, and frequency! Fibonacci is restricted to integers. GSR is not so restricted. Why should space be linear? Why should “c” be a constant? Earthling constructs, limiting thinking !

  29. tchannon says:

    Why? Because most things are even where is appears at first to be otherwise.

    Non-integer quantisation is an oxymoron.

  30. Will Janoschka says: October 17, 2014 at 3:45 am

    [reply] “F(n)/F(n) = 1″ – is that what you meant to say?

    Perhaps, explicitly “for any n”, x = F(n-1)/ F(n), F(n) = F(n)/ F(n), F(n+1) = F(n+1)/ F(n) = 1/x. Note the denominator is a constant scaling factor at current location and time (n). This is backcasting or forcasting for right now, right here, over a constant interval delta (n) of both location and time! Take that on, uncertainty principle! (n) can be at any scale for location and time! The Hamiltonian quaternion rulz!

  31. tchannon says: October 18, 2014 at 2:26 am

    “Why? Because most things are even where is appears at first to be otherwise.”
    “Non-integer quantisation is an oxymoron.”

    Quantisation depends on scale! At high enough resolution, everything is an integer, the very definition of quantisation!

  32. The greeks gave us the GSR of nice looking length to width. Has the proper height ratio been lost?
    What is the 3D GSR? The high risers are so ugly!

  33. oldbrew says:

    ‘What is the 3D GSR?’

    One possibility: ‘The Golden Ratio & Squaring the Circle in the Great Pyramid’

    http://www.dartmouth.edu/~matc/math5.geometry/unit2/unit2.html

  34. markstoval says:

    I would like to see a post about Astrophysicist Ferenc Miskolczi in layman’s terms. I would like a post in general terms that I could even share with young people. What his research means. Why he was attacked. What he is doing now. What it would mean if “mainstream science” were to give his work honest consideration.

    I realize that since he is in the “Hall of Fame” you must have written about him many times before, but is it not time to do another for you present readers?

    ~Mark

  35. oldbrew says: October 18, 2014 at 9:48 am

    (‘What is the 3D GSR?’)

    “One possibility: ‘The Golden Ratio & Squaring the Circle in the Great Pyramid’”

    Thanks for the link! Those pyramids do look kinda neat! How high was the parthenon?

    [reply] link: http://www.goldennumber.net/parthenon-phi-golden-ratio/

  36. markstoval says: October 18, 2014 at 10:30 am

    “I would like to see a post about Astrophysicist Ferenc Miskolczi in layman’s terms. I would like a post in general terms that I could even share with young people. What his research means. Why he was attacked. What he is doing now. What it would mean if “mainstream science” were to give his work honest consideration.

    I realize that since he is in the “Hall of Fame” you must have written about him many times before, but is it not time to do another for you present readers?”

    Mark, please review the explanation of the Miskolczi paper by Noor van Andel. Perhaps the only earthling that could make sense of what Ferenc was writing of! The log log graphs still have me wondering what this may mean! No temperature anywhere!

  37. oldbrew says:

    Re Miskolczi:
    From a comment at WUWT by Arno Arrak – May 13, 2014 [no paragraphs in the original]:

    ‘I have bad news for you: climate sensitivity, no matter how you choose to define it, is zero because the enhanced greenhouse effect simply does not exist. To understand why there are some facts of nature you have to acquaint yourself with. The first one is that the greenhouse effect as defined by Hansen does not exist. He simply failed to detect it in 1988 but nevertheless has been pushing it for the last 24 years. The second one is that the greenhouse warming theory based on Arrhenius is simply wrong and must be replaced by the Miskolczi greenhouse theory (MGT). You have to digest the meaning of these two facts to understand their connection to sensitivity.

    First, let’s take Hansen. He reported to the Senate in 1988 that the greenhouse effect exists. What he did was to show a rising temperature curve, going from a low in 1880 to a high in 1988. That high 1988 peak, he said, was the warmest temperature within the last 100 years. There was only a half a percent chance that this could happen by accident. Hence, there was a 99 percent probability that this warming was greenhouse warming, thus proving that the greenhouse effect is real. But when you check the Congressional Record you find that he includes a non-greenhouse warming, from 1910 to 1940, as part of his 100 year greenhouse warming. Radiation laws of physics dictate that to start an enhanced greenhouse warming you must simultaneously increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This did not happen in 1910, so this warming is not greenhouse warming. The same conclusion follows from its sudden cessation because greenhouse warming cannot be stopped without removing the absorbing molecules from the air. It follows that this particular warming period must be subtracted from his claimed 100 year greenhouse warming. More than half of the total warming for the entire twentieth century goes out with it. What is left of his 100 year warming after this amputation is a see-saw temperature curve of 25 years of cooling that is followed by 23 years of warming.You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that this will never prove the existence of the greenhouse effect. Hansen’s claim that he has observed the greenhouse effect is simply false. But nobody checked his science and he has been able to get away with this fiction for the last 24 years. As a consequence, we have the IPCC built upon the belief that greenhouse warming caused by carbon dioxide exists. In view of the absence of the greenhouse effect this belief must now be considered pseudo-science. They rely upon the Arrhenius hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to air warms the atmosphere by absorbing outgoing longwave radiation. But now we find that even this is not true because we have not had any warming for 17 years while carbon dioxide constantly increased. This by itself is enough to prove Arrhenius wrong.

    But more direct evidence is available from Ferenc Miskolczi. He used NOAA weather balloon database to observe the absorption of IR by the atmosphere over time. And found that absorption was constant for 61 years while carbon dioxide at the same time increased by 21.6 percent. That is sufficient to prove the absence of the greenhouse effect and take the feet right out from under the anthropogenic global warming theory. There simply is no such thing as AGW. But how do you then reconcile this and the fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs energy? The answer is very simple. When you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere it starts to absorb just as Arrhenius says. But Miskolczi greenhouse theory tells us that when carbon dioxide and water vapor simultaneously absorb in the IR there exists a joint optimum absorption window which they jointly maintain. Its optical thickness is 1.87, calculated by Miskolczi from first principles. Addition of carbon dioxide will increase the optical thickness but as soon as this happens water vapor will begin to diminish, rain out, and the optimum optical thickness is restored. This is the explanation of why we have the warming pause – as more carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere its expected greenhouse warming effect is simply blocked by this condensation of water vapor. It is completely parallel to observations of the NOAA database where no warming took place for 61 years. Note that this behavior is the exact opposite of what IPCC is telling us. They found that their calculated temperature rise from carbon dioxide alone was not big enough to be threatening, so they added positive water vapor feedback effect to make it appear more dangerous. As a result, more than half, and possibly two-thirds, of the greenhouse warming they report is caused by nothing more exotic than water vapor. This cannot happen according to the Miskolczi greenhouse theory.
    See E&E 21(4):243-262 (2010).’

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/13/climate-sensitivity-and-transient-climate-response/#comment-1635762

  38. tchannon says:

    Miskolczi : Looks like Rog put that up.

    I am not confident I can write on M.

    A property does not involve temperature.
    Quick look around for something _not_ involving climatic, ie. less likely to spin
    http://web.njit.edu/~gary/728/Lecture3.html

  39. wayne says:

    tchannon: “Quick look around for something _not_ involving climatic, ie. less likely to spin

    http://web.njit.edu/~gary/728/Lecture3.html

    Spin? I am afraid that article alone is going to do nothing but completely confuse everyone. Search that article for ‘mass’… it is not there! Everything in his derivations have to do with length (δl) ahnd depends on constant density and in any atmosphere length matters not by itself since desnsity is always changing vertically. Now if you take his derivations and put density AND length, δl δρ (rho) per constant area or that brings in the number of particles directly in play within a given length that the radiation had to transverse… now you are getting somewhere!

    The Beer–Lambert law is all about path length and density is assumed constant along that path. You just have to transform his equations into δm in some manner for the amount of mass transversed and everything in that article then could be applied to atmospheres.

    This is very related to what I found when looking at the two of Venus and Earth, the attenuation (W/kg) across the atmospheres vertically is basically the same, −0.0158 W/kg from the surface to space or thereabouts for each irregardless of the composition of molecular species or the local densities or the local spectrums!

  40. Michele says:

    Big Ar 2192 and flare X1.1 + CME

  41. oldbrew says:

    Climate dialogue:

    ‘We are very pleased that no fewer than five (solar) scientists have agreed to participate in this exciting new Climate Dialogue: Mike Lockwood (UK), Nicola Scafetta (US), Jan-Erik Solheim (NO), José Vaquero (ES) and Ilya Usoskin (FI).

    The introduction and guest posts can be read online’

    http://www.thegwpf.org/climate-dialogue-what-will-happen-during-a-new-maunder-minimum/

  42. Scute says:

    Phil Plait, the Bad Astronomer and serial sceptic basher has just highlighted our hottest “year” ever by starting at any month you care to choose. Then he says this is all the more difficult to achieve because, by this method, there are 12 months from which to choose a start date instead of just January for a conventional year. Pure buffoonery as per usual.

    Link here:

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/10/20/climate_change_records_the_earth_just_had_the_warmest_12_month_period_recorded.html?wpsrc=fol_tw

  43. Chaeremon says:

    New paper on fresh observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope:
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014SW001084/abstract
    The Sun and its solar wind are currently exhibiting extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the space age. The highly abnormal solar activity between cycles 23 and 24 has caused the longest solar minimum in over 80 years and continues into the unusually small solar maximum of cycle 24. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of galactic cosmic rays in the space age, and relatively small solar energetic particle events. We use observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to examine the implications of these highly unusual solar conditions …

  44. Doug Proctor says:

    http://www.capitalcommentary.org/israel/tenth-man

    The value of a dissenting view, and the historical litany of what happens when everyone “gets on the same page”.

  45. steverichards1984 says:

    Interesting chat on Radio 4 programme “Inside Science”, where a researcher describes some of the stunning output from the IRIS probes orbiting the sun.

    !00,000C temps, strong magnetic fields etc.

    23rd October 2014 1630 hours.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04lss83

    “Great ball of fire. The Sun throws out more than just light and heat; for solar scientists, it is also a source of many mysteries. Why is the surface of the sun less hot than its corona, or outer atmosphere? New research using the NASA satellite telescope, IRIS, or the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph is providing new insights.”

  46. oldbrew says:

    The BBC shows off its latest non-science here. ‘Humans are turning whole oceans more acidic’ they claim.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26746039

    No explanation of how warming seas are supposed to retain more CO2, when science says they will retain less – aka Henry’s law.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry%27s_law

    Lubos Motl discussed this a few years ago.

    http://motls.blogspot.co.uk/2007/11/ocean-carbon-sink-henrys-law.html

  47. Doug Proctor says: October 22, 2014 at 9:57 pm

    http://www.capitalcommentary.org/israel/tenth-man

    “The value of a dissenting view, and the historical litany of what happens when everyone “gets on the same page”.”

    If the whole choir is on the same page, the pastor can sell anything! Pastor covets your wife!

  48. Doug Proctor says:

    Will,

    The pastor had my wife. That’s why I’m divorced.

  49. Doug Proctor says: October 24, 2014 at 11:49 pm

    “Will, The pastor had my wife. That’s why I’m divorced.”

    Doug, you were not on the same page as your ex, or the pastor.

  50. craigm350 says:

    I came across a comment (could be here, Paul Homewood’s or the Bish’s place) recently (which I failed to bookmark) which went along the lines of the HADCET data since ~2000 had been adjusted again and that in all bar one year went up. It was noted how strange this was as it was not from e.g. late data as this was stretching back over the past decade – so was the data deficient?

    I have some values stored from the past few years but they are not accessible atm so I can’t compare any changes.

    Just wondering if anyone spotted this?

  51. oldbrew says:

    Climate science discovers the oceans are important – or at least allows the idea to be mentioned.

    “We argue that it was the establishment of the modern deep ocean circulation – the ocean conveyor – about 2.7 million years ago, and not a major change in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere that triggered an expansion of the ice sheets in the northern hemisphere,”

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-10-climate-ocean-atmosphere.html

    Of course the usual waffle about dire consequences from a few extra molecules of CO2 in the modern era has to appear as well, to keep the research funds coming in and avoid a row or worse with their bosses.

  52. tchannon says:

    Not noticed anything.

    Published March 2013
    2012 Jan to Dec + annual
    2012 5.4 3.8 8.3 7.2 11.7 13.5 15.5 16.6 13.0 9.7 6.8 4.8 9.70

  53. Zeke says:

    tallbloke, it would be nice to see you here:

    http://www.naturalphilosophy.org/site/members/

    The new name for the alternative science group is the John Chappell Natural Philosophy Society. Check your spam folder. You can retain your membership, since this is continued as a courtesy, without the membership fee for now.

    About

    The John Chappell Natural Philosophy Society (CNPS) provides an open forum for the study, debate, and presentation of serious scientific ideas, theories, philosophies, and experiments that are not commonly accepted in mainstream science. This group uses the term “Natural Philosophy” which is a “broader” term for physics, cosmology, and mathematics representing the group’s goal of going back to the basics which are said to be resolved, but are truly not resolved.

    The CNPS has the following goals:

    To be an organization that supports, publishes, and promotes serious scientific work outside mainstream science
    To provide a forum for open debate about modern topics in physics, cosmology, philosophy, and mathematics
    To provide a forum for presenting serious papers and theories without fear of censorship
    To be run and controlled in its entirety by its paid membership including the election of its directors by its members.

  54. tchannon says:

    Rain yesterday, ouch!
    Highest rainfall Kinlochewe 106.2 mm

  55. Zeke says:

    tallbloke, this is going to be close. There will likely be a very large explosion or electrical response from the earth when this goes by. Both the previous low solar activity, and the sudden X-flares from the sun, will make this an electrical transaction between the earth and the charged asteroid.

    Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
    2014 UF56
    Oct 27

    0.4 LD

    15 m

    Footage from the Siding Spring encounter with Mars showed an exceedingly bright flash.

    The near earth asteroid of February 14, 2013 was also very energetic.

    Shoemaker Levy broke apart and struck Jupiter with many flashes of extraordinary intensity.

    I do not have Java to look at where UF56 will pass. See asteroid table here: http://spaceweather.com/

  56. Scute says:

    Zeke

    I think the phase angle of the asteroid to the sun will be about 60 degrees at close approach.

    2014 UF56 passes across our stern. The JPL Horizons geocentric, equatorial coordinates at closest approach are:

    RA 18H 31MIN
    Declination -11 DEG 6 MIN

    Converting to ecliptic coordinates, it means that at closest approach it will be roughly 12 degrees above the ecliptic, having already just crossed the Earth’s orbit line. It will be about 28 degrees sunward of the the orbital line as one looks back down the orbit line.

    Here’s some additional info that I think is useful to know for this asteroid and others. UF56 actually crosses our orbital path at around 30 degrees but seeing as it is only going around 6km/sec faster than our 30km/sec at this point in its orbit it appears to cut across our backside at nearly 90 degrees like a car changing lanes on a motorway. The absolute speeds down the motorway are similar which exaggerates the crossways motion as viewed from our ‘car’, the Earth. This is why we sometimes see NASA depictions of asteroid paths whizzing past at erratic angles (like 2012 DA14 which approached from the South Pole but was actually sailing around with us at the same absolute speed but at a 10.33 deg incline-that small incline caused the South Pole approach vector).

    Frank Davis and I have our eyes peeled for accompanying meteors which, if they arrive, will be slamming into the night side of the Earth at relatively high impact angles, or past the terminator and into the day side as low inclination atmospheric ‘grazers’. We managed to get a good fit between the recent Nicaraguan meteor, the Spanish grazer and 2014 RC which passed at 0.19 LD.

    http://cfrankdavis.wordpress.com/2014/09/09/asteroid-2014-rc/

  57. Zeke says:

    Scute, beautiful work with the simulated path for the September asteroid, and the trajectory for fireballs in Nicaragua and Spain. Everyone should visit!

    UF56 was just discovered only 24 hours ago, apparently.

    These asteroids can either break apart or be multiples which are traveling together. Comets break apart sometimes at great distances from the sun, while at other times they do not break apart after grazing the sun. ref: Thornhill

    So you are right, that flybys are occasions for splintering.

    I find it a shame that funding for Robert H McNaught, the man who has found many asteroids and comets over the years, and recently spotted Siding Spring, is being terminated. ref: Wik entry on McNaught The priorities are all wrong at NASA.

    I wrote an entry also last night:

    http://zekeunlimited.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/upcoming-earth-asteroid-encounter-4-lunar-distance/

  58. craigm350 says:

    Thanks Tim. I think I had a Homer Simpson moment as it’s HADCRUT4 that was adjusted up not CET – and I reblogged it as well!

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/05/is-wti-dead-and-hadcrut-adjusts-up-again-now-includes-august-data-except-for-hadcrut4-2-and-hadsst3/

  59. Frank Davis says:

    NASA had UF56 vectors. I make closest approach 21:21 UTC. It’s quite a long way away though.

    http://cfrankdavis.wordpress.com/2014/09/09/asteroid-2014-rc/#comment-106897

  60. Zeke says:

    It is est to be 15m, and it is about 98,000 miles from earth. But the sizes are sometime adjusted later, so it is still worth your attention.

    Each flyby is unique because of geomagnetic and solar activity, and the asteroid’s previous charge/ environment. There may also be a response on the moon. This is a note-taking experience and I think we will get induced underground currents and auroras again, like Valentine’s Day. Remember the flares from the current very large sunspot have not sent any CMEs. Auroras and a geomagnetic oscillation are worth noting.

    Thank you for the trajectory image. Is that the western or eastern hemisphere facing UF56, please?
    Is someone watching the moon for disturbances?

  61. Zeke says:

    This live Virtual Telescope event was canceled.

  62. Zeke says:

    #UF56 Remember to snip everything you see.

  63. oldbrew says:

    Taking climate absurdity to new levels – you couldn’t make it up…

    ‘Government measures ‘may have slowed down global warming’: Energy minister claims policies are playing a role in curbing rising temperatures

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2809995/Government-measures-slowed-global-warming-Energy-minister-claims-policies-playing-role-curbing-rising-temperature.html

    How do people like this get supposedly responsible jobs? It’s a mystery.

  64. tchannon says:

    Weather Warning: GCM are showing unpleasant conditions for Sunday 2nd Nov, a southerly gale with an abrupt wind shift was the system moves eastwards, probably heavy rain. Eyes might be associated with this.

    I hope it is wrong.

  65. See you have posted at Judith’s Rog.

  66. Roger,
    Is it time to split the Talkshop into the political, and the psudo-scientific?
    TimC is very good at the scientific, You are very good at the political.
    I personally enjoy the conflict. Just something for you to ponder!

  67. oldbrew says:

    The Hockeyshtick highlights this:

    ”Lawsuit: White House Won’t Show Evidence To Back Up ‘Polar Vortex’ Claims”
    http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/29/lawsuit-white-house-wont-show-evidence-to-back-up-polar-vortex-claims/2/

  68. craigm350 says:

    Tim – you prob already know due to pingback but BBC reporting hottest ever at Charlwood which rang a bell as you’d covered before. Having said that it is gorgeous and sunny out.

    http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/10/31/hottest-halloween-on-record/

  69. tchannon says:

    No Craig but one reason is I was out.

    Weak sun southerly falling to **no wind**, thick atmosphere. Will be warm. Implication from car thermometer would be 22 or 23C.. Was in Oxfordshire. (<5 miles from Benson at one point)
    [update later, on looking at actual data I was wrong, the wind tended to increase after dawn at most warm sites although the situation is somewhat complex. I was located to the west of the hottest places. –Tim]
    Dark now so I'll hit a few buttons.

    Quick look.
    Benson, 13:00 hrs average 21.2C
    Charlwood 22.4C
    Heathrow 22.7C

    Here you are
    Plot of all stations

    Click to access uk-2014-10-31-1743.pdf

    ZIP of CSV numeric hourly data
    https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/hist-2014-10-31-1743.zip

  70. oldbrew says:

    Virgin’s test space rocket has blown up – at least one death reported.

    http://phys.org/news/2014-10-witness-space-tourism-rocket.html

  71. Scute says:

    Here’s yet another opportunity for the alarmists to sex up the Summary for Policymakers.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29803811

    “On Sunday they will release the Synthesis Report. This new study is meant to take the most important elements of all three and blend them into something new. It is not meant to be a cut-and-paste exercise.”

    But they do at last appear to be admitting the possible existence of the MWP:

    “The period between 1983 and 2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years, according to the draft.”

    Notice the ice clock in the picture- ice hauled in from Greenland on a gas-guzzling ship. About 10 tons before melting, by the look of it.

  72. oldbrew says:

    From the ‘Scientists baffled’ department:

    ‘A team from James Cook University says it has found tiny zircon crystals of the same age in rocks on Vanuatu and in northern Australia.’

    ‘Researcher Carl Spandler said the crystals “shouldn’t be there”.’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-29797137

    ‘Mr Spandler said that the presence of the zircon had major implications for how scientists understand how continents are made.’

  73. tchannon says:

    Strange tale unfolding, Rutan crash, co-pilot unlocked re-entry system early, started to operate.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/11/03/us-space-crash-virgin-idUKKBN0IM0RO20141103

    [update, I forgot, rocket only fired 4 times out of 54 launches, most times was passive glider release which implies untested dynamics were being approached]

  74. Richard111 says:

    Wondering if this post might find some interest here.

    http://www.principia-scientific.org/fred-singer-closing-in-on-fact-co2-doesn-t-affect-global-temperature.html

    Well worth a read if you think CO2 is a ‘greenhouse gas’ or not. And H2O is included.

  75. oldbrew says:

    Spies like us – at the Copenhagen climate talks and beyond.

    ‘The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, says he will launch an investigation into reports that Britain spied on other governments at two successive global climate summits.’

    http://www.thegwpf.com/un-to-investigate-claims-that-uk-spies-infiltrated-copenhagen-climate-talks/

    The UK head at the two climate summits was Miliband (2009) and Huhne (2011).
    Huhne commented (paraphrasing): ‘I know nothing about this’ 😉

  76. oldbrew says:

    ‘Germany’s phase-out of nuclear energy has triggered over 20 lawsuits by big power companies who have demanded billions of euros in damages, said a government paper released Tuesday.’

    http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Germany_faces_suits_worth_billions_over_nuclear_phase-out_999.html

    But it’ll be worth the cost of the settlement to get all those weedy wind turbines in exchange…errr… won’t it?

  77. Scute says:

    John Lewis Christmas ad used as front by WWF to fund their Global Warming lobbying agenda. Or, how to dupe donors in 4 easy stages.

    http://m.johnlewis.com/h5/c/montythepenguin

    Stage 1: there’s the lamentable fact that this year’s ad (linked above) features an Adelie penguin looking for love and is accompanied by an “adopt a penguin” plea. That alone shows that the Ship of Fools managed to sell their Adelie penguin scare story to the world despite being surprised by too much sea ice. 

    Stage 2: if you scroll to the bottom of the page you can find out how to “Adopt a penguin”. Click on the link, “find out more now” and you are taken to a WWF page telling you that Adelie penguins are struggling with increased snowfall and need your help. 

    Stage 3: but the snowfall isn’t their main problem. We are finally persuaded to part with our cash because:

    “Climate change and rising global temperatures mean the sea ice is melting [yes, that’s the current, record-breaking Antarctic sea ice that’s melting, folks]. This affects krill – the penguin’s main food source – which rely on sea ice to survive.”

    Stage 4: under the bulleted points listing the demise of the Adelie, there’s another bulleted list showing how your donation (they suggest up to £330) will help the Adelie. The last two of the five points have nothing to do with the Adelie but everything to do with alarmist lobbying:

    – “Raising awareness of the threats of climate change we all face.”

    -“Your support will also help fund our essential work around the world.”

    So my question is, how much of my £330 donation is going to my Adelie penguin I adopted after reading the blatant lie that Antarctic sea ice is melting. And how much of my £330 is going to the WWF lobbying the IPCC, the UN, the UK government, US Senators and Big Business?

  78. oldbrew says:

    Scute says: ‘how much of my £330 is going to the WWF lobbying the IPCC, the UN, the UK government, US Senators and Big Business?how much of my £330 is going to the WWF lobbying the IPCC, the UN, the UK government, US Senators and Big Business?’

    None because you won’t be giving those jokers anything 😉

    But as long as propaganda scares of the climate variety prove successful for fund-raisers they will keep churning them out, using IPCC fantasies as a smokescreen.

  79. Richard111 says:

    Would like to hear a few opinions on this link. Currently reading the kindle version
    of Dark Winter. A bit slow and wordy so far but I can agree with what I have read.

    https://w3.newsmax.com/LP/Finance/CTI/Cold-Truth?dkt_nbr=f74kulk1

  80. Anything is possible says:

    More weather porn from the Express, making this winter sound as though it will be reminiscent of the last glacial maximum…

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/534304/Winter-weather-forecast-UK-heavy-snow-months-polar-vortex

  81. Ian Wilson says:

    Tim,

    I have put up four blogs post at my site that address the topic:

    Evidence that strong El Nino events are triggered by the Moon.

    You can get to the cover blog post by just going to my site:

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/

    The cover blog post should give you access to the three
    earlier (background) blog posts if the more adventurous
    want to look at them.

    Rog told me to contact you when my blog post were ready.
    You are welcome to post them on Tallblokes if you think they
    are of interest.

    [N.B. I have set it up so that you only have to post the cover
    blog post – since it gives you access to the other post
    – provided that copy across the links]

    P.S. There may be some small changes — typos and references
    added over the next few days.

    P.S.S. I am not looking forward to the great El Nino of 2015-16
    as it is already as hot-as-hell out here in Eastern Australia.

  82. tchannon says:

    On about to pop matchsticks from eyes here, noted, look tomorrow.

  83. tallbloke says:

    Ian: Great stuff.
    Tim: please post.

  84. tchannon says:

    I’m looking, tricky, See how it gels. Drafted offline is appearing.

  85. tallbloke says:

    Ian: I’ve just read through the 4 posts. Really excellent detective work and exposition.
    Tim: I hope you’re posting the final most recent post which summarises and links the others.
    Thanks.

  86. tchannon says:

    At 12 browser pages it is long but that depends on page format etc etc.
    A lot of detail formatting before I can see much and then wordpress will format.

  87. Ian Wilson says:

    Thanks in advance for all the hard work you are putting in Tim to get this post up. It is much appreciated.

  88. Ian Wilson says:

    Rog,

    The country you are currently residing in has more hits than the United States
    and China on my blog site!

  89. tallbloke says:

    Ian: Fame is surely only a timecycle away. Your thanks to Tim are seconded – sorry for the extra workload mate.

  90. tchannon says:

    Draft is ready Rog.

  91. Ian Wilson says:

    Already had a concerted virus attack from the “Federation” – make sure that all files are scanned.

    Unfortunately, I believe that will take much more than this one post to convince the scientific world that there might be some merit to our case.

  92. tallbloke says:

    Keep calm: Vote UKIP.

  93. […] Article reformatted for WordPress by Tim Permission see here […]

  94. Kristian says:

    A simple, straightforward case study: Does “The Atmospheric Radiative Greenhouse Effect” do what it’s supposed to do?

    The rGHE definition tested against real-world observations. Would be thankful if put up for discussion …

    http://okulaer.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/the-greenhouse-effect-that-wasnt-part-2/

    [Reply] Thanks, done.

  95. Doug Proctor says:

    Lads,

    I was just on Not a Lot of People Know This, where the subject was on “The Hottest Year Ever”. The difference between the RSS, UAH and GISS temperature anomalies Jan-Oct were noted. There is a big difference, and a commenter wondered if the satellites were measuring a different thing than the surface (obviously, but the point is how much of the difference should you expect).

    It struck me that the differences, which are large, might be reflecting the amount of cloud cover the ground measurements get (100%, of course) vs that of the satellites, as the measurements of the troposphere would be above a lot of (lower) cloud. That then made me wonder if the difference in the readings might reflect cloud cover; the changes in the differences would then be CHANGES in the cloud cover.

    Not having thought all this through. But a plot of delta land-satellite temperature anomalies vs time would show trends, if present. A plot of delta land-sat temps vs CERES cloud cover might show a correlation. Some ratio of normalized CERES cloud cover X delta-temp vs time might show both the changes and amount of cloud-induced forcing through time.

    Dunno. But Hansen et al don’t like the satellite data. The question is not why, as the satellite data shows less warming, but why the difference exists. Even if the surface data has been fudged, the comparison might show (exaggerated, perhaps, by the adjustments to the surface data) that cloud cover changes are very, very significant.

  96. tchannon says:

    Tim comments here.

    There have been kind words from one or two people, thank you.

    My general silence is deliberate. Means I don’t take part. I can’t take part and do things.

  97. Will Janoschka says:

    tchannon says: November 17, 2014 at 3:51 am

    “Tim comments here. There have been kind words from one or two people, thank you.”

    I wish to add my kind word for your effort. Thank you very much!

    “My general silence is deliberate. Means I don’t take part. I can’t take part and do things.”

    OK, please jump in whenever “you” think it is appropriate! Good comments!

  98. oldbrew says:

    Global energy future report:

    ‘renewables are expected to go from strength to strength, and it is incredible that we can now see a point where they become the world’s number one source of electricity generation’
    BUT
    ‘Wind and solar PV integration will become more challenging.’

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-11-turmoil-conflicts-cloud-global-energy.html

    Nice euphemism: ‘more challenging’ – a better expression might be ‘a nightmare’.

  99. tchannon says:

    Met Office forecast before Christmas

    Note: Page written out by in development software with known detail date errors.

    Met Office forecast for period day16to30 issued at 2014-11-17T16:00:00

    Forecast for All regions (shared forecast) day16to30, from 2014-12-02 16hrs (Tue) to 2014-12-16 16hrs (Tue)

        UK Outlook for Tuesday 2 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 16 Dec 2014:
    • The most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and windy weather to affect western parts of the UK.
    • Spells of rain are likely further east too but the best of the dry weather is expected here.
    • Temperatures are generally expected to be around or a little above average for the time of year, although this does not preclude the possibility of a few colder spells which are likely during any quieter periods of weather.
    • There is a chance of some overnight and morning mist or fog in places, and some patchy frost too – this may be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.
  100. oldbrew says:

    Another one from the ‘Scientists baffled’ department:

    ‘Giant storms on gassy Uranus have astronomers scratching their heads’

    http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-uranus-giant-storms-20141113-story.html

    ‘…there is not enough sun to explain these massive storms, De Pater pointed out. So it means that the inner workings of Uranus, which remain hidden from view, are more complex than scientists expected.’

    “Well, at least it tells us that the theories have to be adjusted,” De Pater said. “They are not representative of reality.”

    A bit like Earth climate models then 😉

  101. tchannon says:

    My immediate thought when I saw the item a few days ago was electrical, plasma. Not seen anything since shift that view.
    I expect a spectra analysis has been done, so what is it?

  102. Will Janoschka says:

    tchannon says: November 19, 2014 at 1:38 am

    “My immediate thought when I saw the item a few days ago was electrical, plasma. Not seen anything since shift that view. I expect a spectra analysis has been done, so what is it?”

    Nothing will be relieved that is in any way in conflict of the dogma!

  103. oldbrew says:

    UK nuclear plans up in the air: French firm losing big money on existing contracts. Professor says EPR is a “bad, unbuildable design”.

    http://www.thegwpf.com/uks-nuclear-future-in-danger-amid-mounting-areva-losses/

    From the Guardian – energy analyst says: “If I was sitting in Whitehall this would scare the daylights out of me.”

    ‘Hinkley Point C nuclear plant’s future in doubt as crisis hits shareholder’

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/19/hinkley-point-c-nuclear-plant-future-doubt-areva

    Losses for Areva on their Finnish reactor are already up to 3.9bn Euros and the start date is now 2018 when it was supposed to be 2009. Lawsuits in progress.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/01/finland-nuclear-olkiluoto-idUKL5N0R20CV20140901

  104. David Blake says:

    @ (in particular) Old_Brew:

    http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1438/

    Spooky Alignment of Quasars Across Billions of Light-years
    VLT reveals alignments between supermassive black hole axes and large-scale structure

  105. tallbloke says:

    Interesting! Doesn’t look like the result of an explosion to me…

  106. oldbrew says:

    @ David Blake

    Thanks for the link, good stuff.

    ‘A correlation between the orientation of quasars and the structure they belong to is an important prediction of numerical models of evolution of our Universe. Our data provide the first observational confirmation of this effect, on scales much larger that what had been observed to date for normal galaxies.’

    Well, yes. Must get that Jupiter-Uranus numerical model post finished 😉

  107. oldbrew says:

    One for ‘invariable sun’ advocates to ponder:

    ‘The number of lightning strikes across the UK has been significantly affected by solar activity, according to new research.’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30103561

  108. oldbrew says:

    Handing out Nobel prizes for things that may never even have happened – heard it before?

    ‘Researchers place Higgs boson discovery in doubt’

    http://phys.org/news/2014-11-bicep2-higgs-boson-discovery.html

  109. oldbrew says:

    @ David Blake: ‘Spooky Alignment of Quasars Across Billions of Light-years’

    Lubos Motls explains why he is not spooked by this ‘discovery’:

    I don’t find it shocking at all. These “lines” result from the gravitational clumping of material close to an axis. This clumping eliminates most of the orbital angular momentum and puts almost all the angular momentum to the spin. And the vanishing of the orbital angular momentum is of course mathematically equivalent to the statement that the surviving spinning objects (quasars) are sitting on the axis of the spin! 😉

    http://motls.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/chile-telescope-finds-mysterious-25.html

  110. tchannon says:

    Remember this article?
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/03/19/friends-of-science-billboard-seems-sensible/

    News now

    “We now have half a dozen electronic billboards in cities around the country. On
    the stationary Montreal billboards: Le Devoir, La Presse, Le Soleil and the
    Globe&Mail blogs are all alive with it …”

    Parts of the area are not happy bunnies, you can guess their world view.

    and

    > This clip will run 16 times per hour from 6 AM to 11PM. Today, they tell me
    > there is a huge pre-Christmas shopping fair and some 300,000 people will be
    > roaming the streets. This is the only video billboard of its kind in Montreal
    > at it is at a mall and a metro stop.

    Here is a copy of the short MP4 video inside a ZIP (926kB) archive, can’t host video directly on the Talkshop, download, open, play.
    https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/sundraft.zip

  111. oldbrew says:

    Another way the Sun affects Earth’s weather they just *unearthed* 😉

    ‘Sun’s rotating ‘magnet’ pulls lightning towards UK’

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141119204849.htm

    ‘We now plan to combine regular weather forecasts, which predict when and where thunderclouds will form, with solar magnetic field predictions. This means a reliable lightning forecast could now be a genuine possibility’

  112. craigm350 says:

    Ahead of Northern Hemisphere winter (metreological) would it be possible for Ren (if he’s up for it) to do a piece again so we can watch the hemispheric locks?

  113. oldbrew says:

    ‘Robot subs find Antarctic sea ice thicker than expected’

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26606

    ‘Previous estimates based on a number of very limited – and probably biased – methods like ship inspection and drilling suggested that only 20 per cent of the winter sea ice was thicker than 1 metre. This study found that 90 per cent of it is more than 1 metre thick, and indeed, 40 per cent is thicker than 3 metres.’

    ‘The growth of Antarctic sea ice, which reached an all-time record extent this year, is one of the biggest geophysical changes that happen on Earth each year.’

  114. markstoval says:

    Derivation of the effective radiating height & entire 33°C greenhouse effect without radiative forcing from greenhouse gases

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/11/derivation-of-effective-radiating.html

    I think this one is worthy of a thread here.

    [reply] there is one already

  115. Ian Wilson says:

    And they said it wasn’t possible!

    Are the Strongest Lunar Perigean Spring Tides Commensurate with the Transit Cycle of Venus?

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/are-strongest-lunar-perigean-spring.html

  116. Anything is possible says:

    Interesting global temperature data from Ryan Maue, using NCEP re-analysis :

    http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/global_trace.php#

    (He posted the link on his twitter feed, so I assume it is OK to re-produce it).

    It supports suspicions that 2014 is nowhere close to being the “warmest year ever”

  117. Scute says:

    A few weeks ago, Paul Holmwod pointed out that the BBC wouldn’t admit to the existence of the historical England rainfall data back to 1750 that undermined the story that it was the wettest first 10 months for the UK since records began in 1910. He was castigated because England isn’t the whole of the UK.

    Now the BBC have decided to use the CET to represent UK temperatures going back 250 years:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30304611
    So now it’s OK to use a small triangle representing, what, a tenth of the UK to peddle their doom mongering for the whole UK. What’s more, the headline doesn’t even say it’s the UK, leaving the casual reader to think it’s the whole world if just glancing through the headlines.

  118. Scute says:

    That is, the main headline on the Sci and tech page doesn’t mention the UK.

  119. oldbrew says:

    Steve McIntyre blows the credibility of tree ring proxies out of the water.

    ‘ In the warm 1990s and 2000s, the proxy not only doesn’t respond linearly to higher temperatures, it actually goes the wrong way. This will result in very negative RE values for MBH-style reconstructions from its AD1000 and AD1400 networks when brought up to date, further demonstrating these networks have no real “skill” out of sample.’

    http://climateaudit.org/2014/12/04/sheep-mountain-update/#more-20311

    Summary here: ‘Tree ring proxies RIP’

    http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/12/5/tree-ring-proxies-rip.html

  120. Brett Keane says:

    Partial report on an experiment, from Japan’s Riken Institute: Maybe something to ponder about the interactions of EMR with matter –

    When light shines on a material, it delivers energy to the electrons surrounding a fraction of the material’s atoms, exciting them to higher energy states that last just a few hundred attoseconds. However, if the light is sufficiently intense, all the electrons in the material can be excited at once. This results in a saturated state in which the material cannot absorb any more light, allowing x-rays to pass through the material freely. Yabashi and Yoneda wanted to use this short period of transparency to produce ultrashort x-ray pulses.

    Achieving saturable absorption using high-energy x-rays is theoretically possible but has proved challenging in practice due to the very short lifetime of the excited states. It takes an extremely intense x-ray pulse to achieve saturation and transparency.

    Using the SACLA x-ray free-electron laser at the SPring-8 synchrotron facility and a specially developed focusing system (Fig. 1), the research team produced an intense x-ray beam with a spot size of just 50 nanometers, giving an unprecedented intensity of 1020 watts per square centimeter. Aimed at a 20-micrometer-thick iron foil target, the beam caused the transparency of the iron foil to increase by a factor of 10 within 2 femtoseconds. “The change was quite dramatic,” says Yabashi.

    This brief window of transparency should make it possible to produce attosecond-order x-ray pulses. The iron’s transparent state also sharpened the wavefront of the x-ray beam.

    “The next stage is to utilize this finding in many interesting practical applications, such as attosecond shutters, atom lasers, and x-ray nonlinear waveguides,” says Yabashi.
    References

    Yoneda, H., Inubushi, Y., Yabashi, M., Katayama, T., Ishikawa, T., Ohashi, H., Yumoto, H., Yamauchi, K., Mimura, H. & Kitamura, H. Saturable absorption of intense hard X-rays in iron. Nature Communications 5, 5080 (2014). doi: 10.1038/ncomms6080 (Link)

    Brett

  121. tchannon says:

    Paul Homewood picks up on proper use of funding it’s just that stupids are stupid, don’t understand meaning, nothing wrong with building thermal power plants with UN Climate money ‘cos it doesn’t specify.

    “UN Climate Funds Given To Japanese Companies To Build Coal Power Stations!
    December 6, 2014”
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/un-climate-funds-given-to-japanese-companies-to-build-coal-power-stations/#comments

  122. J Martin says:

    There is a 67 year minor solar cycle, what other 67 year cycles exist ?

  123. Chaeremon says:

    Folks, you won’t believe:
    http://www.medshild.com/
    “For the protection of the sea shores of the Mediterranean, Black Sea and Red Sea from the globally rising ocean levels.” Err, protection from guestimated millimeters ?!

    What a bargain, just 500 B€ a piece [h/t http://www.kaltesonne.de/tag/meeresspiegel/ ]

  124. oldbrew says:

    Anti-fracking group hit with £10,000 legal bill by judge.

    He ‘ruled that the County Council was right to give permission for what is, after all, a legal activity, encouraged through national policy, and therefore rejected the claim for judicial review. FFBRA was ordered to pay £10,000 in costs.’

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/12/09/Judge-in-Fracking-Case-Environmentalist-Bully-Tactics-Threaten-Rule-of-Law

  125. tchannon says:

    1,000 protesters, tenner a piece although betcha there were other costs. Also reckon a strange effect, most of the 1,000 will melt into not-me-guv

  126. Doug Proctor says:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/the-most-popular-deceptive-climate-graph/

    There is a most interesting graph here. RC has “corrected” the WUWT temperature and CO2 dual graph to show the IPCC correlation between CO2 and global temperatures. The result is that since 1998 temperatures have been ABOVE predictions, not below. Natural variation is reversed from what the warmists have been claiming. Pre-1998 was abnormally warm, by this graph, not post-1998 abnormally cool.

    Based on this graph, the next couple of years should be on the low side of temperature rises, not showing a huge rebound…..

    Unless they are saying that the growing divergence between their display of temps and CO2 is evidence of increase radiative forcing with the higher amount of CO2, which goes against basic IPCC CO2 behaviour. This view, however, means that the last 16 years are the “norm” and therefore we can expect post 2014 to leap high above the CO2 line….

    Either contradict what was said before, or predict a huge increase in the next 3 or so years…..

    RC also puts up the straw man about the sun being the direct and dominant forcer. They are stuck into their Unique Solutiion Syndrome. Only one thing matters, damnit, and that is CO2. Multiple forces are just not possible …. because they would weaken the supposed radiative forcing of CO2, which would kill the idea that emissions control will change the planetary heatflow.

    Even RC is getting into a pickle when it comes to reconcile the IPCC narrative with temperaturee and CO2 changes.

  127. oldbrew says:

    Doug: bottom line, you can’t polish a turd 😉

  128. Larry Ledwick says:

    I tried to leave you a message using the direct contact form but it did not appear to work.
    Would appreciate a direct email from the tallbloke if it is too much trouble. Need to ask a question of you.

  129. oldbrew says:

    TC: fracking protesters bailed out by Ecotricity, a windfarm-based elec provider…

    http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/12/9/windfarm-boss-funds-antifracking-challenge.html

    BH comments: ‘I’m not sure that paying green activists to disrupt your competitors would generally be seen as a legitimate tactic.’

  130. oldbrew says:

    Knoxville Named a ‘Climate Action Champion’ by White House

    December 3, 2014 – The Obama Administration today named the City of Knoxville as a “Climate Action Champion,” one of 16 communities across the country to receive the new designation in recognition of efforts to mitigate and prepare for the possible effects of climate change.

    http://www.cityofknoxville.org/Press_Releases/Content/2014/1203c.asp

    You couldn’t make it up.

  131. oldbrew says:

    Strong post by guest Fred Mueller re Germany’s economically disastrous energy policies.
    Wealthy Germany doesn’t realise yet just how bad things are going to get if they continue as they are doing.

    ‘The unsinkable German anti-CO2-Titanic just found its iceberg’

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/10/the-unsinkable-german-anti-co2-titanic-just-found-its-iceberg/

    It seems obvious that only major economic disasters are going to stop the anti-CO2 nutters in their tracks, if/when the public finally realise how much they are being mugged.

    NTZ weighs in along the same lines:

    http://notrickszone.com/2014/12/09/energiewende-takes-a-massive-blow-top-green-energy-proponent-concedes-blunder-with-ugly-consequences-huge-blow-to/

    Sickener for greens: coal much cheaper than (Russian) gas.
    NTZ commemts: ‘Skyrocketing electricity prices for consumers while the price on the exchanges go negative: This has got to be one of the 7 wonders of German energy management.’

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