Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 8)

  1. tchannon says:

    Suggestions 9 is open for business, link to old page here: –

  2. Michele says:

    Greenpeace – you hypocrites !!!
    I am sure most people want good for the planet, but illegally entering the ancient lines of Nazca to lay some letters & words out, you have yourselves caused damage.

    Watch the video they posted, (Link Below) as its easy to see a difference in the propaganda images they posting & the footage – their own even. Compare the screen grab vs their official images & you can see they have used the “Clone Tool” in photoshop to hide markings in the area where they were posting their message – I wonder why that was – maybe they caused those marks eh?
    20 people working away through the night & they say no damage was done – RUBBISH !

    If you were going to use photoshop to try to cover up your damage, then why not just photoshop the message onto a picture of the site anyway?

    This is NOT the way forward, damaging ancient sites certainly gets you news coverage, but the wrong type. IDIOTS!

    Watch the video here & look for the lines not visible in their propaganda images:

  3. Doug Proctor says:


    For your consideration:

    Click to access l14.pdf

    The Draft Decision coming out of the Lima, Conference of the Parties (COP20) meetings of 01-12 December 2014 is now available at the heading web location. The summary is only 4 pages long (the fifth is a blank Annex). It is short but an interesting read for what it doesn’t demonstrate: a commitment to create binding commitments with respect to either CO2 emissions or adaptation maneuvers for anyone on anything up to and, it would appear, including, the upcoming December 2015 meeting in Paris.

    The draft was created as a series of semi-bullet points, though instead of “bullets” it uses action words to signify decisions made by the 195 Parties to the conference. But we should not be deceived that the action words mean “action” in the common sense of “doing something”. These are more intellectual action words, like “affirming”, “noting”, “confirming” etc. In effect, “We agree to keep talking about the subject, even perhaps around the subject, but we do not agree to step up and start doing anything related to the subject of CO2 emissions”. This can be construed as a cynical interpretation, but I argue (below) that a close read says it is not.

    It is not terribly surprising, as many observers have noted, that few Parties are standing up and slapping their wallets and workforce on the podium about Climate Change or, more importantly, Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW). If CAGW is as large a problem as it is said to be, the social, economic and political cost of wrestling the beast to the ground is horrendous. Several generations will suffer in the battle, predominantly (one may also cynically suggest) the lower socio-economic groups who are struggling to rise out of energy and resource poverty. But every country, every economy, will falter in the grand war to “save the planet” as the eco-greens consider this to be. All participants publicly hold to the line that the rise in atmospheric CO2 will, in the next 85 years, prove disastrous to all biological, not just human, life on the planet. It would seem reasonable that everyone would agree to do something, even if reluctantly. Even if we grant that a hesitation is “normal”, as it is against the history of mankind to cut off one’s nose to improve the look of another’s face, one would expect an agreement to do something. And yet …

    A suspicious person might think that the outcome of one more COP gathering, regardless of the public Party line, individual nations have considered the probable effect on their particular piece of the planet, and concluded that the future is not so bad, especially if one sees that the effect on the “others”, will be significantly worse. Or that the entire narrative is considered by the Nations leaders to be improbable at best and fictional at worst. Background positions a skeptic might say he has been holding since the 1990s. That there aren’t any warmists, really, or at least warmists concerned that the future is other than acceptable.

    Regardless of the above (opinionated) thoughts, a close review with clear eyes of the Draft Decision/Proposal by the President is worthwhile for everyone regardless of eco-views.

    Much of the Draft is boilerplate sentence-making. Once one zeroes in on the key phrases, the substance is remarkably thin:

    Page 1

    Paragraph 4: “Affirming its determination to strengthen adaptation action … with legal force”.

    The overriding intention is create a legally-binding agreement on “adaptation action”. This does not sound like CO2 emissions control. It sounds like a legally binding document to provide money or engineering projects to someone, perhaps even one’s own country, to build dikes, install air-conditioning or even – to put the psychologists to work – provide stress counselling for activists such as Bill McKibben and David Suzuki, both of whom have admitted to weeping while considering the coming fate of the world.

    Paragraph 6: “Noting with grave concern …”

    This is about the disconnect between what the 195 Parties are talking about doing and how cumulatively it will be ineffective in

    “…holding the increase …. below 2*C or 1.5C above pre-industrial levels,”

    So the summarizing committee is saying, “Man, this ain’t gonna do what you all are saying needs to be done.” Which is not well expressed: “… below 2*C or 1.5*C above pre-industrial levels”. Which is it? And what does that mean for the 2100 target relative to today?

    It is hard to see exactly what “pre-industrial levels” means. If we agree that pre-1850 there was no A-CO2 impact, so the temperatures back then were of the “pre-industrial” level, and there has been approximately 0.9*C of warming since then, the 2100 target means less than 1.1C or 0.6C of increased global temperature rise is (at present) an impossible goal.

    But it is still a large target, 0.6C pr 1.1C. Almost 100% wiggle room, perhaps enough to let natural variability solve the “problem”.

    Pg. 2. (In the second part of the Draft, the paragraphs are numbered)

    2: “Decides that the protocol … with legal force … shall address …. transparency of action and support”

    So the Parties “want” everyone to be open about what they are going to do? Not if you go down further to paragraphs 7 through 14. So we have a disconnect, like that of a person who wants to be wealthy but doesn’t want to work overtime to make more money.

    3: “… the principle of … differentiated responsibilities and …. capabilities …”

    I.e., the Rich countries have to pay more and do more than the Less-Rich, who may not have to pay anything or do anything if someone, perhaps they themselves, deem them unable to pay or act. Nice touch.

    4: “Urges developed … to provide …. financial support to developing countries…”

    See 3, above: the Rich give, the Less-Rich, receive. But also “… recognizes complementary support by other Parties”. Hmm, now we have the Less-Rich giving something to the even Less-Rich. Three tiers; the Developed countries give money, the Less-Developed give, what?, and the Non-developed just receive.

    Bottomline: the Developed countries give money, everyone else wrings their hands in sympathy with the suffering of others.

    7: “… the negotiating text …will not prejudice … the legal nature and content …”
    Nothing in the negotiating text reflects a commitment to the content of any further agreement. In other words, whatever has been said currently is open to change or being dropped altogether. You can’t hold us to anything, period.

    8: “… are without prejudice …”
    See above.

    9: “Reiterates its invitation … to communicate … its intended …. contribution …”
    11: “… the least developed … may communicate information ….”
    12: “Invites all Parties to consider communicating their undertakings”
    13: “Reiterates its invitation …. to communicate their intended … contributions well in advance …”

    Points 9 -13 demonstrate that there is no commitment to nailing down or telling the others what plans they have for CO2 reduction or any other action with regard to CAGW before the meetings next December. Actually, at all.

    Page 3:

    14: “Agreed that the information … may include … quantifiable information … [including] assumptions …”
    This is the key point. Whatever is proposed, including assumptions such as what their targets are, what they think might happen and when it would happen, do not have to include hard numbers that could be challenged, let alone be considered to represent the official position of any Country. This is exactly the “commitment” of China: an “intent” to “curb emissions about 2030″. All and any information provided is optional in nature, and no one is accountable for anything.

    And that is it for the Draft. The rest (the bottom half Page 3 and all Page 4) is smiles-and-nudges, the ‘we-agree-and-encourage-everyone-to-keep-on-truckin” bit that means nothing other than the national knives have been put away. There isn’t even a line for President’s signature; even the Draft needs a final formatting.

    To put together the important bits noted above, the Draft says this:

    The world Nations intend, at some point, to create a legally binding document to reduce CO2 emissions such that future A-CO2 related temperature rises are less than 1.1C. So far what people are proposing won’t achieve that. At this point COP 20 delegates are only united on the idea that the Developed countries have to give money to the Less- and Non-Developed, excluding agreement to keep talking about the subject.

    Going forward to the Paris re-grouping, nobody has to actually to provide plans about what they might do, but if they do, the plans don’t have to be definitive enough to be interpretable by others for their effects. Nothing in any proposal or plan can be considered binding. This includes the use of funds given by the Developed nations: those getting the goodies do not have to identify, certainly not before next December, and possibly, never, what they would do with those goodies.

    But all the COP 20 delegates are encouraged to go at it again, with an an increased energy, in another 12 months, on the banks of the Seine with a good view of the Eiffel Tower, where they are sure to find good wine and a baguette for a reasonable price.

    Doug Proctor

  4. Doug Proctor says:

    Okay, I added the last bit about the good wine and baguette.

  5. tallbloke says:

    Thanks a lot Doug, now posted. Cheers

  6. tallbloke says: December 14, 2014 at 10:29 pm

    “Thanks a lot Doug, now posted. Cheers… Rog”

    Perhaps off topic for suggestions,
    Doug’s post reminds me of my older sisters question a while back, “Will what do you want to do”? I gave my best, she responded with “Will that is what you want others to do”, ” what do you want to do”? 30 years later I still have no answer!

  7. oldbrew says:

    The BBC is forced to admit it: Arctic sea ice is not disappearing – ‘even modest growth’.

    ‘Cryosat’s five-year October average now shows pretty stable volume – even modest growth (2014 is 12% above the five year-average).’


    As you might expect from them, they try to bury the good news at the end of the report.

  8. Scute says:

    I’ve been studying the photos of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and found many matching fits between the ‘head’ and ‘body’ lobes. This means it’s been stretched and so can’t be a contact binary. Yet according to a Rosetta blog
    post several papers are being presented this week that assume it is a contact binary. I’ve posted up all my findings on my blog. It’s a series in 4 parts. Part 4 is a photographic summary of parts 1-3 and is linked here:

    The papers mentioned are being presented at the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. ESA describe it as the biggest annual space and Earth sciences meeting in the world. 

    In case you’re wondering how it could stretch, there are two ways: spin-up due to asymmetrical outgassing or a close pass to Jupiter under the Roche limit, similar to Shoemaker-Levy 9 but stretching, not shredding. 

  9. tallbloke says:

    Thanks scute, reblogged part 1

  10. oldbrew says:

    BBC points the finger at Arctic squirrels in its latest attempt at climate change alarm.

    ‘Arctic ground squirrels unlock permafrost carbon’

  11. craigm350 says:

    Bruce (xmetman) looking at the MetO claim UK extremes are increasing

    His look at precipitation is to follow.

    I did smirk at the desperation and irony in this bit on the MetO news blog
    Rainfall records:
    Since 2000 there have been almost 10 times as many wet records as dry records.
    Taking into account the weighting, the period since 2000 accounts for 45% of all wet records in a national series from 1910, but only 2% of dry records.
    Remarkably, period since 2010 accounts for more wet records than any other decade – even though this only a 5 year period.
    The most prominent wet records in this period were winter 2013/2014 and April, June and year 2012.
    The longer England & Wales Precipitation (EWP) series, which dates back to 1766, shows a similar trend – with six out of a possible 17 records set since 2000, but no record dry periods.*
    The large number of recent wet records may be indicative of trends in underlying rainfall patterns.
    We would expect an increase in heavy rainfall with climate change and this is an area of active research within the Met Office Hadley Centre.

    * Whatever happened to the droughts we were promised/projected?

    Looking at 1872-1879 + 1882 it was very, very wet, there followed in 1884-1902 the Dry Late Victorian Phase.

    Then Hubert Lamb said this in 1958

    I have always thought it a misfortune that the general introduction of plumbing into British homes coincided with the quite unusual run of mild winters between 1896 and 1936. And possibly some of the modern glass architecture and the hill-top sites with an open south-west aspect which became so desirable a few years ago seem less to be recommended in the 1950s.

    HH Lamb – ‘The changing climate, past and present; which appeared in Weather, October 1958, Vol 145, pp. 299-318

  12. oldbrew says:

    Ocean-driven changes to the UK’s weather systems threaten failure of wind power generation
    in winter – Prof.Em. Peter Cobbold

    Click to access Windfail.pdf

    The changes in the Atlantic Ocean currents and consequent changes to the UK’s winter weather present a high probability : high risk scenario for the UK’s electricity supply.

    PNAS graphic of NAO trend: currently on the crossover point (red line)

  13. Chaeremon says:

    (Reuters) Ecuador unilaterally ends all cooperation with Germany on environmental issues:

  14. craigm350 says:

    Looking at aerial photos of Antarctica from the 40s & 50s

    You can see there has been widespread glacier retreat across the Antarctic Peninsula; you can see that very easily in the photography. But somewhat surprisingly we’re finding accumulation on the upper parts of the glaciers. It’s not enough to combat [the mass loss], but it means you do have this kind of dual reaction through time of steepening and accumulation at the rear and dramatic retreat and thinning at the front.”

  15. oldbrew says:

    Sunspots during the Jovian year, graphed over 20 orbits (~237 years).

    Analysis by Timo Niroma here:

  16. Doug Proctor says:

    On WUWT, blog by Homewood about relationship temperatures and sunshine CET. So put in a reference to Tallbloke’s. We’ll see if it sticks.


    Doug Proctor Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    December 23, 2014 at 2:11 pm

    Click to access maxtempvssunshineukstudy1220112.pdf

    I looked at the CET bright sunshine/max temperature for 1930 – 2010 at the above. I found a very clear relationship of cloud cover to maximum temperatures (we all know that the less clouds, the warmer the day is), with a oceanic release/absorption cycle of the AMO-PDO laid on top. Besides the conclusions (below, from the abstract) I saw that 2010 was at the end of the current cycle of warming, with a prediction of cooling in the works for Central England.

    There was also a linear increase with time that could be CO2 related, but it was minimal All parameterrs were sufficiently well behaved to produce a graphically-displayed set of predictions.

    Have a look:

    Three factors were found to be associated with all temperature changes:
    1. The duration of bright sunshine, such that C = 9.27E-3C X Sunshine hour – 0.10C. This factor was constant with time, but the changes in bright sunshine hours followed (with time) a quasi- sinusoidal pattern with indeterminate amplitude, but a peak-to-peak cycle of 62 years.
    2. A quasi-sinusoidal (with time) Pacific Decadal Oscillation-Atlantic Multidecadal Occillation-like variation, with a cycle length of 56 years and amplitude of 0.31C.
    3. A linear (with time), consistent increase of temperature, such that C = 9.53E-4 (Yr-1873) – 0.1425 C.

  17. oldbrew says:

    Dr Bill Gray hits warmist theory where it hurts.

    Stop Climate Fear Mongering – CO2 Increases Can Cause Only Minimal Warming
    by William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus, Colorado State University

  18. Tim Channon says:

    Season’s greetings from Tim.

  19. oldbrew says:

    Paper ‘shows that there are solar-driven changes in the troposphere that possibly involve the action of the global atmospheric electric circuit on lower tropospheric clouds’

    ‘Solar wind-driven geopotential height anomalies originate in the Antarctic lower troposphere’:
    (restricted access until 28 March 2015)

    Researchers investigated the Mansurov effect:
    ‘Using four years of reanalysis data, the authors did indeed see a pressure response in the troposphere over Antarctica to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field. The response was very highly statistically-significant within the troposphere but not so in the stratosphere, and was seen in the lower troposphere days sooner than in the mid-to-upper troposphere.’

  20. oldbrew says:

    Latest Eastern Arctic sea ice data: historical data for Christmas week.

  21. Michele says:

    Stratosphere : Minor or major warming in progress ?

  22. :Roger, please look at:

    Click to access 06_thermal_rs.pdf

    Chapter 8 from :
    The “how” to of remote sensing is good but, the science of thermal IR radiation is but Climate fantasy. The declarative statement (pg-2) that claims, “Thermal infrared energy is emitted from all objects that have a temperature above absolute zero”, has never ever been observed or measured. Such is demonstratively false under at least two conditions:
    1. Any object with finite emissivity,at any temperature within an environment at a higher temperature, can never spontaneously emits any thermal EMR. That object can only absorb thermal EMR from such environment.. That deliberate fake claim violates all of known science!
    2. Any object at any temperature, but with zero emissivity, cannot exchange radiative energy with any environment. If “any” such exchange is detected, go polish that puppy lots more!

    Page 6 another false claim “When these particles collide they change their energy state and emit electromagnetic radiation” What total Bull Shit! Increasing energy, molecules (mass) or not, that energy potential, spontaneously creates a radiative potential (temperature), that “if’ that temperature is maintained by replacement energy, spontaneously transfers EMR energy in every direction of lower radiative potential, at each frequency band may occur. The radiative “field strength” at each frequency is maintained, without energy transfer, by each competent atomic nucleus, reading brands, and trying to figure who belongs to this fool electron.

    Again on Page 6 “There is usually a high correlation between the (fake) kinetic temperature of an object and the amount of (fake) flux radiated from the object.

    Only potential is ever measured by academics never flux. Good God, can earthlings never get the difference between voltage and current? They are orthogonal, yet complementary. Power is but the cross product of two orthogonals, and always orthogonal to each of the precedent force.

    Roger, have a pleasant 2015, or else!!! -will-

  23. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, have you seen the work of this Scientist?
    Paul LaViollette.

    Oldbrew, that post on the Mansurov Affect is very interesting.

  24. Doug Proctor says:

    What Chaeremon says:

    The comments – antagonistic – are interesting. The tone of the article – that very big business concentrates power both economically and politically to the detriment of society, and should be contained periodically – is hard to argue with unless one is already convinced he benefits from that concentration AND stands to benefit more in the future. The erosion of relative living standards and the expansion of the working poor via low minimum wages says that not everybody would agree that very big business is the way of the future.

    The elephant-in-the-room IMHO is the socio-political power that ends up in the hands of an entrenched, wealthy elite. “Carbon taxes” are not a solution brought up by the commoner, nor high energy prices, but by people like Al Gore and the Brit government officials who are immune from the collateral damage of their ideas. The ideological safe are the proponents of restricted powerholders.

    It’s odd, but the people who encourage Walmart to come to their towns, destroying the individual, family-run businesses of the center and the social life that attends to that, are the same people who spend a fortune to holiday in a small seaside resort. It is an undiscussed recognition that what is efficient and useful is not always more pleasant for a life.

    No society, even robust capitalist one’s, can survive with a pure hands-off approach. Uncontrolled self-interest is self-destructive. All societies require some regulation of power, whether military, poltical or financial (financial ultimately being the grounding of the military and political). The question we face is not black/white. The question is amount. The Economist article seems (to me) to be pointing out that we are in another period of socially destructive concentration as far as democracy goes. I can’t see much reason to disagree.

  25. oldbrew says:

    Solar cycle 24 update. SH max about 32 months after NH max.

    Comparison of the most recent cycles:

  26. oldbrew says:

    From nohotair:

    ‘The way polls are going, it could be a coalition of the Scottish National Party’s Alex Salmond as PM, Nigel Farage of UKIP as Foreign Secretary and Natalie Bennet of the Green Party as Secretary of Energy and Climate Change.That will produce the most entertaining coalition the world has ever seen. For the week it lasts.’

  27. Doug Proctor says:

    The latest satellite CO2 imagery: has anyone seen it quantified? How about grid size and error margin, and what determines the error, plus the assumptions behind the quantification: there is no direct measurement from space, after all, but some calculated number based on absorption lines in the spectra. Through edge atmospsheric transmission?

    With a numerically gridded dataset, one should be able to isolate all urban fossill-fuel dominant sources, insert average values, and determine the net effect of turning off the urban centres. And then see what turning off our civilization would do.

    The slash-and-burn agriculture areas shouldn’t be a concern, as CO2 is cycled from burning to growth, a fact that cannot be denied when the average greening of the planet is an acknowledged state by warmist and skeptic alike.

    I’m getting truly paranoid these days. I’d have thought that by now numerical analysis of the CO2 data would have been done by one side of CAGW or the other. All I’ve seen is the start of any scientific analysis, i.e. that urban centers and third world agricultural sites are heavy producers, and maybe some oceanic areas are sinks. I would have thought that the pro- or con-CAGW would be jumping all over this data for their own purposes by now – we all know that reasonable waiting times until “all” the data is in (say, 12 months) is not de rigeur when you are trying to score points. So why the delay?

    (The above assumes I are up-to-date on the satellite discussion. Unless I have missed it, which I doubt, because it would be all over Climate Depot if it were anti-CAGW and all over Real Climate if it were pro-CAGW, and then all over Climate Depot because, obviouslu, Real Climate would be wrong).

  28. markstoval says:

    JoNova has a very interesting post up on David Evens’ notch-delay theory coupled with Stephan Wilde’s solar hypothesis. Worth a mention here I think. ~ Mark

    [mod: –Tim]

  29. Paul Vaughan says:

    Attention OB & TB:

    Phi turned up when I was digging into ergodic theory & Weyl’s criterion
    (in relation to the law of large numbers):

    That certainly answers some of your questions about ‘why’.

    Math is an endless world. No matter how much time we invest, there will always be trivial relations of profound importance of which we remain eternally ignorant. It’s humbling. It underscores that we’re not very far along the evolutionary path we’ll need to survive.

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    “The value of c that produces the most even coverage of the domain [0,1) is:”

    better do an image search on that image (& related images) OB, to see where else phi is hiding in the sprawling inter-tangled web of wiki math pages — who knows what other gems are out there?

  31. A C Osborn says:

    Doug Proctor says: January 2, 2015 at 5:24 pm

    (The above assumes I are up-to-date on the satellite discussion. Unless I have missed it, which I doubt, because it would be all over Climate Depot if it were anti-CAGW and all over Real Climate if it were pro-CAGW, and then all over Climate Depot because, obviouslu, Real Climate would be wrong).

    There have been a couple over posts at WUWT.

  32. Doug Proctor says:

    A C Osborn says:
    January 3, 2015 at 6:36 pm

    Am aware of the WUWT posts. These are the reason for my comment: all are non-quantified, visual correlations without numeric parameters. No in toto summation and average, mean, mode or distribution analysis, areal, type, latitudinal, environmental or other. Don’t you find that interesting, the same way the Dog In The Night was a Curious Case?

  33. oldbrew says:

    Today’s climate howler: AGW-funded scientists must make even bigger prats of themselves in a desperate attempt to fool the public into thinking a crisis exists when it doesn’t.

    ‘Scientists ‘must be emotionally charged’ about climate change to highlight its dangers, claims expert’


  34. oldbrew says:

    From climateconversation (NZ):
    Studies from around the world, hundreds of them archived at CO2 Science, show that the Medieval Warm Period (about AD 950 to 1250) appears to have been warmer than today, though the papers vary in their approach and quality.’

    ‘If a careful study could show conclusively that modern temperatures are not in fact unprecedented, then a very great deal of steam would be lost from the global warming steamrolling machine.’

    ‘And here it is’

    Giant clam reveals Middle Ages were warmer than today

    The paper is ‘A composite sea surface temperature record of the northern South China Sea for the past 2500 years: A unique look into seasonality and seasonal climate changes during warm and cold periods’ by Hong Yan, Willie Soon and Yuhong Wang (Dec 2014)

  35. Chaeremon says:

    Here we go team tallbloke: knowing the past solar irradiance [through parameter W] in “Solar diameter, eclipses and transits …”, Costantino Sigismondi (2013),

  36. p.g.sharrow says:

    This EMSmith post might be of interest to you or provide grist for your mill:

  37. tchannon says:

    Useful to know what they doing Chaeremon. I thnik they need to widen their expertise base, which might come with tech background amateurs.

  38. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, have you seen this post at eh Scottish Sceptic?
    A scientific person has been persecuted by the NH system and has ask for Political Asylum in the Irish US Embassy.

  39. oldbrew says:

    ‘Project Albatross’ breaks ground in California: the US equivalent of the UK’s HS2 rail plan.

    Now expected to cost 3 times the original estimate and carry one third of the passengers, one third slower than planned. And that’s before all the legal challenges are accounted for.

    ‘a federal judge ruled the project did not have to adhere to the state Environmental Quality Act, unlike other projects’ – one legal challenge out of the way.

  40. oldbrew says:

    New solar system theory: ‘Mercury may be sole survivor of planetary pile-up’

    ‘The inner solar system may once have been a crowded and violent place – and Mercury its lone survivor. A new model suggests that most young planetary systems start with several close-in, rocky planets, which later destroy each other in a cascade of collisions.’

  41. eilert says:

    An excellent blog post by Dr. Tim Ball:
    Gruber Thinking in Climate Science: Disconnect Between Academia And The Real World – See more at:

  42. oldbrew says:

    Tim C might be interested in this:

    ‘Weather Instrumentation Debacle? Analysis Shows 0.9°C Of Germany’s Warming May Be Due To Transition To Electronic Measurement’

  43. tchannon says:

    I nearly commented there but what is the point, won’t change minds. I disagree with some of what is claimed even though the claim is correct! Explaining why there is a contradiction, nope, not doing it, too much is counter intuitive.

    Anyone reading here
    This was a good article

    And this is telling

  44. oldbrew says:

    ’12 reasons research goes wrong’

    Examples: Pressure to publish, Bad Math, Sins of omission, Peer review doesn’t work.

  45. oldbrew says:

    This peer-reviewed paper by Monckton/Soon/Legates/Briggs is featured at WUWT:

    ‘Why models run hot’ – climate models that is 😉

    Click to access

  46. oldbrew says:

    Not a Hollywood script…

    ‘Dongles used by insurance firms to monitor driving could be used by hackers to remotely take control of a vehicle, it is claimed.’

  47. scute1133 says:

    Anyone seen this Facebook post from Mann on the 16th January concerning the 2014 global temps?

    The second sentence is a veritable spaghetti dish of spin. Phil Plait at Bad Astronomy has taken it on trust and now the whole world thinks that according to NOAA, the 2014 temperature anomaly of 0.69 degrees is “statistically significant”. Anyone who hears that term in climate circles and on Phil Plait’s blog is going to think that the hike is greater than NOAA’s error bars which are 0.09 degrees C.

    What NOAA actually mean is that 2014 was 48% likely to be the hottest year whereas 2005 and 2010 were ‘significantly’ less likely to
    have been (around 18 and 28%? maybe- it was in a recent WUWT post citing the relevant page at NOAA languishing in the depths of the website. I read it)

    It’s ironic that it’s 48%, “more unlikely than likely” in NOAA’s terminology yet Mann has now convinced the world that the 2014 rise is outside NOAA’s large temperature error bars, soaring up the scale. Thanks, mate.

  48. tchannon says:

    Strange stuff, possibly the coldest place in England this morning was Heathrow airport but the Met Office system is missing some data.


    Looks as though humidity is locking it in although a sunny day is reported. Visibility is not good.

    Northolt -5.5C

    Gravesend-Broadness was down around -5C but flapping. tide probably.

    A few places in Scotland were colder.

    If it remains calm and clear tonight it will be colder.

  49. ivan says:

    I don’t know if this is of interest but it does show more waste of money on green objectives.

  50. JohnM says:

    What price has china paid to supply environmentally-clean western countries with goods:

  51. Doug Proctor says:

    I posted this comment over on WUWT regarding the “agenda” of a Lisa Jackson/administrator’s memo wrt the “new mandate” of the EPA. You might find my thoughts interesting from a Brit point of view (which, as an immigrant from England raised in Canada, I share to some extent):

    What Americans probably don’t realize because it is such a part of the American culture, is that this memo reflects both the strengths and the weaknesses of the American legal and cultural system: the “quarterback”. The quarterback is the center guy whose insight determines the outcome of the game. Everyone else blocks or carries; only the quarterback determines the play. Lisa Jackson is the quarterback of the EPA here, and Obama is the quarterback of the political scene. Al Gore is a quarterback, McKibben is a lesser one but a quarterback. The American culture looks to such a guy to understand the bigger picture, not just present it to the rest of the team but inform the rest of their team what their roles are in fulfilling the picture he has determined is best.

    The quarterback is the social lone hero. Without him, nothing gets done, private, selfish interests prevail and the world goes to hell in a hand-basket. Think Dirty Harry or Eisenhower on a social scene.

    The strength of the quarterback system is obvious. There is a clear plan and no opponents. Everyone knows his place and gets going. The weakness is that that personality and passion are deeply embedded and not for discussion. A Bush wants This and, gadnabit, This gets done. Later an Obama-Jackson want That, and gadnabit, That gets done. There is no sense of general social direction, just the in-the-moment take of the person in control of the ball.

    The celebrity DeCaprio is part of the quarterback system no less than Al Gore. And with just as much reason to be followed. It’s the job of the average American to do as he is directed, not to question how the game is being played.

    The quarterback system means there are Great Leap Forwards and Great Leap Backwards. A man was put on the moon by the great quarterback Kennedy. The European economy is collapsing because of the environmental quarterbacks in Brussels, and the American energy system under attack because of the environmental quarterback in Washington. In former times the quarterback was a King, in more former times, a General. The American socio-political system is still dealing with a conceptual replacement of George III or George Washington.

  52. oldbrew says:

    Fatuous climate hype will be going full-bore all the way to Paris this year, as Prince Charles warms up with another yawn-inducing plea for ‘action’. If only someone could give him control of the Sun…

  53. oldbrew says:

    Why Phi? ‘Fractals seen in throbs of pulsating golden stars’

    ‘William Ditto and his colleagues at the University of Hawaii, Manoa, compared the two strongest oscillations, or tones, made by the variable star KIC 5520878, using observations by NASA’s Kepler space telescope. They noticed that dividing the frequency of the secondary note by that of the primary, or lowest, note gives a value near the “golden ratio” – a number that shows up often in art and nature and is close to 1.618′

    Well, there’s a thing 😉

    ‘The unprecedented light curves of the Kepler space telescope document how the brightness of some stars pulsates at primary and secondary frequencies whose ratios are near the golden mean, the most irrational number. A nonlinear dynamical system driven by an irrational ratio of frequencies generically exhibits a strange but nonchaotic attractor. For Kepler’s “golden” stars, we present evidence of the first observation of strange nonchaotic dynamics in nature outside the laboratory. This discovery could aid the classification and detailed modeling of variable stars.’

    Abstract with link to paper (free-to-view pdf) here:

    Sample quote: ‘In contrast, two non-golden RRab Lyrae stars KIC 4484128 and KIC 7505345, whose frequency ratios well approximate the simple fraction 3/2, exhibit qualitatively different dynamics’

    3:2 ratio = Fibonacci first order resonance like Neptune:Pluto

  54. manicbeancounter says:

    On the 28th January 2015, the DECC launched a new policy emissions tool, so everyone can design policies to save the world from dangerous climate change. I thought I would try it out. By simply changing the parameters one-by-one, I found that the model is both massively over-sensitive to small changes in input parameters and is based on British data. From the model, it is possible to entirely eliminate CO2 emissions by 2100 (total output of -0.2GT/CO2e) by a combination of three things – reducing the percentage travel in urban areas by car from 43% to 29%; reducing the average size of homes to 95m2 from 110m2 today; and for everyone to go vegetarian.

    Try it out for yourselves

    I have detailed the above claim at my blog.

  55. oldbrew says:

    The Scottish renewable energy show rumbles on…

    ‘Scotland’s top judge calls for new ‘energy court’ to handle renewables and shale gas disputes’ (Jan. 29, 2015)

    But that idea may already be running out of…er, gas:
    ‘The Scottish government has announced a block on planned fracking operations, pending further inquiries. (Jan. 28, 2015)

    Meanwhile the RSPB has put the wind up offshore renewable energy developers with legal action.
    Now some major projects will be held up for months at least.

    ‘RSPB Scotland sent shockwaves through the sector in Scotland earlier this month after a last-minute move to seek judicial review of Mr Ewing’s decision to grant consents for the Neart na Gaoithe, Inch Cape and Seagreen Alpha and Bravo arrays.’

  56. oldbrew says:

    Scientists have found evidence ‘consistent with the idea of cyclical ice ages on Mars related to its obliquity.’

    ‘Geologists from Brown University have found new evidence that glacier-like ice deposits advanced and retreated multiple times in the mid-latitude regions of Mars in the relatively recent past.’

  57. doug Proctor says:

    Nobody moves nobody gets hurt. Well, except those in the dark and cold, and the poor, but none of them are our friends, so we’re okay here.

  58. doug Proctor says:

    The glaciers of Mars are active. The edges are clean. Stagnant glacial ice 8s lumpy and covered with residual debris.

    The ice caps on satellite imagery show the babfing that comes from scraping, plucking and grinding along the base and sides. Thrust fsulting brings lower beds up through the column along the path. There is a lot of ice in the column.

    Even ay 0.35g, the column needs to be only 350m thick to flow. Incorporation of CO2 reduced this as CO2 is denser than H2O.

    There is an ongoing glacial cycle of deposition in the centre and melting/sublimation at the perimeter. The clean edges suggest it is in a period of expansion.

  59. craigm350 says:

    1) Further to Linnea who beat me to it ( 😉 ), Beeb article –

    2) Interesting – Cold plasma’ kills off Norovirus –

    “the most common cause of gastroenteritis in the world, can be killed with “cold plasma,” researchers in Germany have reported.”

    3) A lesson in crass assumptions, omission and delusion by Robert Schmuckman* (I think this is about oil and water not mixing)

    It is truly dire. Schmuckman* is proving himself as worthy of divine inheritance of the dark mantle of churnalism and incapability of thought once p’wned by the then BBC’s ‘expert’ Richard Black (the Beeb once censored me when I said RB had not done his homework and just did a ‘select all then paste’ (I believe the secret to good environmental/BBC journalistic code of practice/secret handshake is to ‘interpret’ Green Press Releases as demanding nothing less than total commitment to “Control-A + Control-C + Control-V”). Yes Robert a green job awaits you – putting you in the same cell (*cough*) with Huhne!!! (offence intended as you omit the, shall we say ‘opinion not based on GreenPiece commandments’. Indeed, why not add your own footprint to Nazca Robert -just to make sure you go down in history?) Anyway the way you p*** on ‘balance’ I’m honestly struggling to be balanced myself. Although I admire you commitment to copy+paste *cough*

    * I hope the use of schmuck (just google it) is not offensive beyond my (I hope) obvious intention to portray an organ of the establishment as an organ. However, the way things change and with the pressure of Twitter-rage for having an opinion not conducive to the ‘consensus’ of over zealous tyrannical nutjobs- one must be careful that anyone is not portrayed as some form of hobbit (apologies for my thoughtcrime -in this case to Elijah Wood and any actors in New Zealand) or Neanderthal – although of course I wish no offence to Richard Black or Mann with the latter. Shall I lash myself now or at the next UN Conference?

    / sarc (just in case)


  60. oldbrew says:

    linneamogren says: ‘Huge storms rage on Uranus.’ – New Scientist

    The BBC reports:
    ‘Ever since its equinox in 2007, when the Sun shined [sic] directly on its equator, the seventh planet has been becoming more active. Last year it hit a new peak.’

    That could well be a clue. But the increased intensity is harder to account for:

    ‘…during the 2007 equinox each pole was equally lit up, and astronomers expected that this change in illumination would cause a particularly stormy year. While they did see some turbulent weather, it was nothing compared to the storms of 2014.’

  61. craigm350 says:

    “Earth’s magnetic field is crucial for our existence, as it shields the life on our planet’s surface from deadly cosmic rays. It is generated by turbulent motions of liquid iron in Earth’s core. Iron is a metal, which means it can easily conduct a flow of electrons that makes up an electric current. New findings from a team including Carnegie’s Ronald Cohen and Peng Zhang shows that a missing piece of the traditional theory explaining why metals become less conductive when they are heated was needed to complete the puzzle that explains this field-generating process. Their work is published in Nature.

    The center of the Earth is very hot, and the flow of heat from the planet’s center towards the surface is thought to drive most of the dynamics of the Earth, ranging from volcanoes to plate tectonics. It has long been thought that heat flow drives what is called thermal convection — the hottest liquid becomes less dense and rises, as the cooler, more-dense liquid sinks — in Earth’s liquid iron core and generates Earth’s magnetic field. But recent calculations called this theory into question, launching new quests for its explanation.

    In their work, Cohen and Zhang, along with Kristjan Haule of Rutgers University, used a new computational physics method and found that the original thermal convection theory was right all along. Their conclusion hinges on discovering that the classic theory of metals developed in the 1930’s was incomplete.”
    “…work that had purportedly thrown the decades-old prevailing theory on the generation of Earth’s magnetic field out the window claimed that thermal convection could not drive magnetic-field generation. The calculations in those studies said that the resistivity of the molten metal in Earth’s core, which is generated by this electron scattering process, would be too low, and thus the thermal conductivity too high, to allow thermal convection to generate the magnetic field.

    Cohen, Zhang, and Haule’s new work shows that the cause of about half of the resistivity generated was long neglected: it arises from electrons scattering off of each other, rather than off of atomic vibrations.

    “We uncovered an effect that had been hiding in plain sight for 80 years,” Cohen said. “And now the original dynamo theory works after all!”

  62. tchannon says:

    craigm, now that is interesting in many ways with I think historical implications.

  63. Doug Proctor says:

    Roger –

    I write professionally on occasion. I have finished a satire based on the Climate Wars (“The War of the Mountaintop”) that I’m sending out for publication. You might find it interesting/amusing. It’s 11,800 words long, in a PDF. My computer crashed a while back, lost all my contacts, so I can’t send it to you. If you want, send an e-mail to me & I’ll reply with the attachment.


    P.S. Introductory paragraph below:

    The War of the Mountaintop


    “Symbols are more important than structures. Possession is more important than

    It was the evening of the 18th August. On a stage in a concert hall, the President of Omegastan shook his fist in the air. Behind him a huge screen displayed an image of the Omegastani flag waving in a sunny summer’s breeze. For the benefit of home viewers, a crowd was photo-spliced in front of him. They were cheering wildly. The President had spoken. Omegastan was at war with Zeestan.

  64. oldbrew says:

    @craigm350: ‘And now the original dynamo theory works after all!’

    Or does it? The majority of any nuclear material is past its half life, for a start.

    Click to access core.pdf

  65. Roger,
    Have you looked at the latest Paul Homewood article on South Americac’s temperature adjustments? Blogger Phil did regression on the measured data. No increase in temperature for the past 40 years. The GISS adjustments show only what GISS fantasy may be.

  66. craigm350 says:

    Tim – I thought it was interesting – prob not in the same way tho’. This is from the Nature piece

    The DFT [density functional theory]+DMFT [dynamical mean-field theory] method should be applicable to other high-temperature systems where electron correlations are important.

    OB – MM throws up lots of interesting lacuna’s and I found it really easy to read not to mention thought provoking, thank you for highlighting. I was not sold on the dynamo especially when it’s put like this (from Nature) – “The conventional thermal dynamo picture is safe” – Ugh! Reminds me waaaay to much of the crowing surrounding ‘proof’ every time a paper emerges (only to be whack-a-moled moments after). It doesn’t address anything (as far as I can see) that MM highlighted, but I wasn’t looking at it from the dynamo standpoint rather our incomplete understanding of many things which are ‘settled’ and defended to the death.

  67. oldbrew says:

    Scottish Development International reports:

    ‘A smart grid is becoming more and more essential as clean energy becomes more dominant. In addition, the demand for electricity is expected to treble the ability to supply it over the next decade. By 2020, 80 per cent of consumers within European Union member states are expected to use electric smart meters, so how do we fully guarantee a successful transition to smart grid? In this white paper you can learn how Scotland is showing the way by using its own informatics research expertise to meet the challenge of harvesting and harnessing its immense potential for renewable energy generation.’–solutions-and-technologies-th.html

    Challenge indeed 😉

  68. oldbrew says:

    White-out in parts of Spain.

    ‘The country is in the middle of a cold spell that is expected to worsen over the next three days, with cold weather alerts issued for 20 provinces.’

    ‘The BBC’s Tom Burridge in Madrid says that a large area of central Spain has seen an unusually high amount of snowfall in recent days.’

    ‘Abandoned cars and overturned lorries have piled up on main roads near Santander.’

  69. tchannon says:

    Right across the region oldbrew, through Italy, Balkans, etc.

    They can keep it, been very little snow here.

  70. tchannon says:

    Since late last year I have had major personal issues which just keep on dumping in front of me… as the wife remarked ‘which god have we upset?’, hence I have been much quieter than usual.

    I have material for articles, the energy to put them together or take part is short supply. It’s easier to put together technical stuff where I don’t need to think much or merely reporting on news. Some of this for example is investigative looking at the Met Office, see what gives simply because I want to see for myself.
    I could put this stuff on the Talkshop or my own blog, or not bother at all given it is minority interest.
    Any thoughts?

  71. tallbloke says:

    Tim, Make some drafts and I’ll help with editing and text.

  72. linneamogren says:

    I’ve stated before my hypothesis that Venus never had oceans of water which evaporated. This is a very interesting article regarding oceans of C02 rather than water once on Venus. The vapor count in the Venusian atmosphere of 0.003% could be explained by its extremely cold layer 125 km above the Venusian surface where C02 could freeze out as ice.

  73. linneamogren says:

    Remember, the vapor count in the atmosphere of Mercury most likely comes from its polar ice caps.

  74. linneamogren says:

    How the Greens in California made a drought worse!

  75. Test again
    The tables below are calculations for the resulting temperatures of nested shells with constant power, and unity emissivity for all frequencies. The first table is for two each constant powers. A 5.67 ohm resistor with 1 and 2 amperes applied to each shell individually and radiating to 1 Kelvin. Note the surface area doubles with each increase in size. The remaining 5 tables have the power supplied to the inner shell and are calculated temperatures but all are easy to verify as the outermost shell becomes an isotherm equal to that of the first table. The intent here is to demonstrate that there is no backward flux ever only the power of the resistor radiated “through” each shell at radiative equilibrium, as per the thermal radiative laws of Kirchhoff. The concept of anything radiating flux as a function only of its own temperature is falsified, and becomes part and parcel of the scam. I still am trying to figure why the temperatures are what they are. Help! an experienced mathematician likely can do that while sleeping, I cannot.

       Each shell to space   P(W) is constant power outward.  None is inward
    N    Dia(cm)   A(m^2)_  P(W)_  T(k) __  W/m^2 __ P(W)_   T(K)___  W/m^2
    1    05.66____0.01__ 5.67_ 316.23_  567.0__  22.68_ 447.21_  2268___ => 1K  
    2    07.88____0.02__ 5.67_ 265.90_  283.5__  22.68_ 376.06_  1134___ => 1K
    3    11.28____0.04__ 5.67_ 223.60_  141.75_  22.68_ 316.23_  0567___ => 1K
    4    15.76____0.08__ 5.67_ 188.03_  070.865  22.68_ 265.91_  0283.5_ => 1K
    5    22.56____0.16__ 5.67_ 158.11_  035.43_  22.68_ 223.61_  0141.75 => 1K
    5 shell to space
    N    Dia(cm)   A(m^2)_  P(W)_  T(k) __  W/m^2 __ P(W)_   T(K)___  W/m^2
    1    05.66____0.01__ 5.67_ 373.09_  567.0__  22.68_ 527.63_  2268___ 
    2    07.88____0.02__ 5.67_ 311.67_  283.5__  22.68_ 440.06_  1134___  
    3    11.28____0.04__ 5.67_ 257.18_  141.75_  22.68_ 363.71_  0567___  
    4    15.76____0.08__ 5.67_ 208.09_  070.865  22.68_ 294.28_  0283.5_  
    5    22.56____0.16__ 5.67_ 158.11_  035.43_  22.68_ 223.61_  0141.75 => 1K
    4 shell to space
    N    Dia(cm)   A(m^2)_  P(W)_  T(k) __  W/m^2 __ P(W)_   T(K)___  W/m^2
    1    05.66____0.01__ 5.67_ 370.04_  567.0__  22.68_ 523.35_  2268___
    2    07.88____0.02__ 5.67_ 305.85_  283.5__  22.68_ 433.53_  1134___
    3    11.28____0.04__ 5.67_ 247.46_  141.75_  22.68_ 349.96_  0567___
    4    15.76____0.08__ 5.67_ 188.03_  070.865  22.68_ 265.91_  0283.5_ => 1K
    3 shell to space
    N    Dia(cm)   A(m^2)_  P(W)_  T(k) __  W/m^2 __ P(W)_   T(K)___  W/m^2
    1    05.66____0.01__ 5.67_ 363.71_  567.0__  22.68_ 514.37_  2268___  
    2    07.88____0.02__ 5.67_ 294.28_  283.5__  22.68_ 416.18_  1134___ 
    3    11.28____0.04__ 5.67_ 233.61_  141.75_  22.68_ 316.23_  0567___ => 1K
    2 shell to space
    N    Dia(cm)   A(m^2)_  P(W)_  T(k) __  W/m^2 __ P(W)_   T(K)___  W/m^2
    1    05.66____0.01__ 5.67_ 349.96_  567.0__  22.68_ 494.92_  2268___
    2    07.88____0.02__ 5.67_ 265.91_  283.5__  22.68_ 376.06_  11m4___ => 1K
    5 shell to space no others
    N    Dia(cm)   A(m^2)_  P(W)_  T(k) __  W/m^2 __ P(W)_   T(K)___  W/m^2
    1    05.66____0.01__ 5.67_ 321.06_  567.0__  22.68_ 454.04_  2268___
    5    22.56____0.16__ 5.67_ 158.11_  035.43_  22.68_ 223.61_  0141.75 => 1K


  76. Jim Miller says:

    I recently completed a book about my experiences running for US Congress. I’m not a politician, I’m a paramedic. I wrote the book to attempt to put into words the reasons that others of my socioeconomic background believe or don’t believe the things we do. One of those things is climate change. In the book I stated that there are no less than seven ideological stances that are assumed about a person who “doesn’t believe in climate change” and I addressed each of the ideologies individually. I thought that this blog might be a good venue for sharing some of what I wrote about CO2 as Apocalypse. Please note that I donate all of the after-tax proceeds from the book to Maybe by not making any money on my work people will realize that climate disaster is only popular because there is no money in research which concludes that we aren’t all going to die a horrible death if we don’t vote for a particular political Party. This is an excerpt from the book:

    “The faster-than-it-should-be net increase in global temperature is a bad thing”

    We’re just under half way into the CO2 as Apocalypse creed and we’re well into a chaos as disordered as the poets ever feigned. Let’s bite the bullet and see where this line of speculation takes us. First we need to define ‘bad’. Personally, I feel that there was no time in the history of Carbon Dioxide as Apocalypse that was as terrifying as when I was in high school. It was the 1980’s.
    In high school we were told that the greenhouse effect was going to cause the polar ice caps to melt and the sea levels were going to rise a minimum of three feet and possibly as much as 30 feet by the year 2000. Sure enough, that very day the Atlantic Ocean rose three feet at the Outer Banks. Later that day when the moon was at a different position in the sky the tide receded back to where it had been.

    As if humanity’s imminent destruction by yet another flood was not bad enough news, not only did the doomsayers insist that we were the ones who needed to build an ark for them, but we were also told that a hole in the ozone was going to destroy the entire ecosystem from the bottom up by frying all of the bacteria in the Antarctic with UV radiation. It’s kinda unrelated, but we were also told that AIDS was going to be the end of humanity and that one in three freshmen girls in college had HIV, and our stupid asses believed those lies too. In spite of our imminent destruction, over the next fifteen years the only major change that the world underwent was Al Gore inventing the Internet. One of the biggest-budget movies of all time, Waterworld was made upon the premise of the greenhouse effect turning Mt. Everest into beachfront property. Much like the movie, all of the greenhouse effect apocalypse scenarios were a flop. And then something even more unfortunate happened. With the invention of Al Gore’s communication superhighway peons everywhere began to find out that even if the entire northern polar ice cap melted it wouldn’t change the sea levels because ice (being H2O and all) does not displace H20 when it changes states. In order to explain this to environmental activists everybody had to take a deep breath and say “that’s why your beer doesn’t overflow when the ice melts in it sweety”. It was also discovered that a good portion of the evil smog that collected around our cities was actually ozone, thereby making the hole in the ozone over Antarctica a rather awkward topic. An even more inconvenient truth was that instead of melting, the glaciers in Antarctica were getting deeper by the day. Thanks to Al Gore’s interweb it was even discovered that greenhouses don’t stay warm because of the carbon dioxide that’s in them, they stay warm because the glass traps the air as it warms up. Yeah, we were pretty dense back then but we was wisin’ up. And with our wisin’ up the environmental lobby realized that it needed some New-Jack marketing to take down a New-Jack demographic.

    With a total lack of sea level related disasters to cash in on, there was great fear that the greenhouse effect would cease to be taken seriously. It was time for our environmental apocalypse to get an extreme image makeover. In the 1990’s Generation X was trying to outdo our hippy and yuppie parents by becoming citizens of the world. The cool major was international business. We were becoming millionaires on the World Wide Web. We figured out which troubled area of the world was the absolute farthest away from us and we made its spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, a celebrity. We referred to ourselves as living in the global village. The only logical name to give our new political apocalypse was global warming. A greenhouse is a pleasant room that promotes plant growth and plays host to all sorts of little animals. And an effect, well that just sounds like something that you can observe in a detached and objective manner like Doppler or Success – N -. Greenhouse effect sounded like an album by KC and the Sunshine Band. Global warming was a cataclysm that cool kids could fear without shame.

    While Generation X was rushing around paying $15 for compact discs and seeing how many times it could get its passport stamped, we were also getting additional phone lines and dedicating entire rooms of our apartments to setting up computer towers, phone modems, monitors and keyboards. We were energized by the technology boom, and in regard to it we optimistically thought of confusion as being the path between ignorance and understanding. This was sometimes to our detriment as occasionally Generation Xers would embrace confusion and attempt to take it to new levels. In college the more brilliant of the liberal arts majors strove to change by not changing; they overtly equated absurdity with profundity and were renowned for their doggerel style. Others, in what looked to be little more than an ignoramus’ attempt at feeling superior, considered themselves to be open-minded simply because they believed in things that didn’t make any sense, like crop circles and tithing-as-salvation. Perhaps most significantly, Generation X and our parents assumed that prolonged confusion over a product was an indication of that product’s superior technology. A VCR for example wasn’t “good” unless it was too confusing for anybody over 30 to program it. The best stereo systems were the ones with the most dials and little bouncing bars of light. And I regret to report that most of us chose Microsoft Windows over Apple II under the incorrect assumption that just because the former was harder to use that it was more technologically advanced. Confusion was the new educated, and in an appeal to our stupidity the greenhouse effect was given a new, counter-intuitive explanation of how it was going to be the end of the world as we knew it. The days of Noah and his greenhouse flood were gone. The disaster du jour was that global warming was bringing on– wait for it– the next Ice Age. Never mind the fact that we are due for another Ice Age, this Ice Age was going to be the fault of Republicans. Once again Hollywood made a movie to educate the public of the dangers of voting Republican called The Day After Tomorrow, and once again the end of humanity as we knew it failed to happen.

    It’s been another decade and now our premature end is called climate change. A trillion dollar per year deficit is unimportant, but an increase in sea level of as much as six inches by the year 2100 is a disaster. I hate to break it to everybody, but the richest nation in the world is going to have to “fix” climate change; and since we’re broke, I hope the countries that sell oil are up to the task.
    For most of my life I’ve heard that my home is going to be under water in a matter of years, yet the ocean is right where it was 25 years ago when the greenhouse effect / global warming / climate change hysteria began. I confess that our winters are pleasantly mild and our summers are still not as hot as they were when I was a kid, but maybe that’s because now I have a heat pump. How is it that global warming tycoons can continue to tell the same story that doesn’t come true over and over and over and over and over and over and nobody ever catches on? Two reasons: because CO2 as Apocalypse isn’t science, it’s religion; and because every year we refresh our High Schools with new and gullible Freshmen who have been brainwashed with climate change dogma since they first emerged into our brave new world.

    -from “Work Hard for Your Dog in the Fight” by Jim Miller. All after-tax proceeds from ‘Work Hard for Your Dog’ go to The book can be purchased on, but if you are a reviewer I will send you a copy free of charge.

    Thank you for your time and thought.

    Jim Miller

  77. oldbrew says:

    A quantum of uncertainty descends on ‘settled science’ Big Bang theories.

    ‘The universe may have existed forever, according to a new model that applies quantum correction terms to complement Einstein’s theory of general relativity. The model may also account for dark matter and dark energy, resolving multiple problems at once. ‘

  78. tchannon says:

    Jim Miller
    ” Later that day when the moon was at a different position in the sky the tide receded back to where it had been.”


    Same happened here except it was 45 feet*, much worse than we thought. Panic several times a day, like that with new wave types.

    Avonmouth. possibly the largest tidal range of any port, PDF with aerial picture also showing both motorway suspension bridges.

    Click to access avonmouth%20berths%201%20and%202.pdf

  79. oldbrew says:

    900 miles from Antarctica…

    ‘A U.S. Coast Guard cutter is on its way to try to free an Australian fishing boat trapped in a block of ice 900 miles northeast Antarctica.’

    ‘To reach the Antarctic Chieftain, the Polar Star will have to break through several miles of ice that in some cases runs nine feet deep amid winds that may reach 35 miles per hour the Coast Guard said.’

    Echoes of the ‘Ship of Fools’ incident:

    ‘This is not the first time the Polar Star has been requested to help a distressed vessel in the waters of Antarctica.

    In January 2014, the cutter was deployed to help break through ice that had ensnared the Russian ship Akademik Shokalskiy and China’s Xue Long and left them temporarily stranded.’

    Ice upto 9 feet deep 900 miles from land and they reckon the Earth’s overheating?

  80. oldbrew says:

    What’s new in plate tectonics…

    ‘A thin, low-viscosity layer at the base of a tectonic plate has been imaged at a depth of 100 km beneath North Island, New Zealand, by an international team of researchers… [This] may help to explain how tectonic plates are able to slide.’

  81. craigm350 says:

    Rates of change, couplings, noise interference causing … heating …cooling…hmm

    Physicists reveal new way of cooling large objects with light

    Feb 13, 2015

    A new technique for cooling a macroscopic object with laser light has been demonstrated by a team of physicists in Germany and Russia. Making clever use of the noise in an optical cavity, which normally heats an object up, the technique could lead to the development of “stable optical springs” that would boost the sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors. It could also be used to create large quantum-mechanical oscillators for studying the quantum properties of macroscopic objects or to create components for quantum computers.
    Cooling with noise

    In this latest work, a large object was cooled using a new technique that involves “dissipative coupling” as well as dispersive coupling. Dissipative coupling was first proposed in 2009 by Florian Elste and Aashish Clerk of McGill University and Steven Girvin at Yale University. It makes clever use of quantum “shot noise” in laser light, which would normally be absorbed by the mirror and cause it to heat up.

    However, if the mirror is in an optical cavity and its motion couples to the mirror’s reflectivity in just the right way, then there are two ways that the noise can reach the mirror: it can travel directly from the laser to the mirror or it can bounce around the cavity before driving the mirror. Just as in an interferometer, noise taking these two paths can interfere destructively or constructively.

    Clerk and colleagues realized that the system can be set up so that destructive interference stops this quantum noise from heating the mirror but does not prevent the mirror from losing energy to the noise. The net effect is a strong cooling of the mirror’s motion, which could in principle take the mirror to its quantum ground state. “Unlike standard cavity cooling schemes, this interference doesn’t rely on having a very large mechanical frequency,” explains Clerk – meaning that it can be used to cool large mirrors that have low vibrational frequencies.

    Couplings working together

    In the latest work, Roman Schnabel and colleagues at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics in Hannover, Moscow State University and the Leibniz University of Hannover have now shown that dissipative and dispersive coupling can work together to cool relatively large mirrors. Based on an idea first proposed by the researchers in 2013, the technique uses a cavity created by a Michelson–Sagnac interferometer (see figure).

    What they have done is to fire laser light at a beamsplitter to create two beams that go off at right angles to each other. These beams then bounce off two mirrors, making their paths form a right-angled triangle. Light from the output port of the interferometer is sent to a “signal-recycling mirror”, or SRM, where some of the light is reflected back into the interferometer and some is sent to a detector. The optical cavity is fine-tuned by adjusting the position of the SRM, while the cavity properties are monitored using a frequency analyser connected to the detector.

    The object to be cooled is a silicon-nitride mirror just 40 nm thick, which is placed at the centre of the cavity. The mirror is about 1.2 mm across, weighs 80 ng and has a fundamental vibrational frequency of 136 kHz. The vibrational motion of the mirror changes not only the resonant frequency of the cavity – leading to the emergence of sidebands and dispersive cooling – but also the bandwidth of the cavity. When the rate of change of the bandwidth is large, energy can be exchanged between the cavity and the mirror. By carefully adjusting the phase between the vibrating mirror and the light, energy alone will flow from the mirror to the cavity, thereby cooling the mirror

  82. linneamogren says:

    ” BTW There is no hiatus. There’s only variation between the land sea, & atmosphere share of the CO2 forcing induced heat. Sorry, mother nature’s shell game. ”

    Any thoughts? That was from a scientist who told me I was ignorant for believing there was no such thing as a ” hiatus ”

    Seems to me there was no missing heat in the oceans, so I am not sure who is playing the shell game.

  83. linneamogren says:

    Sorry, for believing in a hiatus…..

  84. Doug Proctor says:

    I’m seeing both no missing heat and clearly missing heat statements. They could be reconciled if the buildup was noted but not enough to match model expectations.

  85. oldbrew says:

    Paper: ‘Our results indicate a close link between solar activity and SSTs in the northern North Atlantic during the past 4000 yr; they suggest that the climate system in this area is more susceptible to the influence of solar variations during cool periods with less vigorous ocean circulation. Furthermore, the high-resolution SST record indicates that climate in the North Atlantic regions follows solar activity variations on multidecadal to centennial time scales.’

  86. oldbrew says:

    Now showing at the Geneva Motor Show – a car that runs on ‘ionic liquid’ (saltwater, sort of):

    ‘”The QUANTiNO is an electric vehicle for everyone. Affordable and featuring an extravagant, unique design. It is not just a concept vehicle – it will become reality in the course of this year. We will be driving the QUANTiNO in 2015. And we aim to attain approval for road use very quickly,” says Nunzio La Vecchia.

    Vast ranges for the QUANTiNO with nanoFlowcell®

    The innovative drive concept comprising low-voltage system and nanoFlowcell® provides the QUANTiNO with a range of over 1,000 km. “Low-voltage systems are an ideal match for the nanoFlowcell®. They enable us to generate levels of drive power that previously appeared impossible. And we are only at the beginning of our development work. The initial tests and simulations already indicate far greater potential. This concept represents a real alternative for the electric mobility of the future, with outstanding drive power and vast ranges,” says La Vecchia.

    With its two 175-litre tanks, the QUANTiNO is able to carry 350 litres of ionic liquid in total – one tank with a positive charge and one with a negative charge. The refuelling process is similar to the procedure which is customary today, the sole difference being that two tanks are filled simultaneously, each with a different fluid.’

    Is it all show and no go, or does it actually work – and at a price anyone is going to be tempted by?
    350 litres of saltwater sounds like a lot of weight, but then it wouldn’t need a lot of heavy batteries like standard EVs.

    How nanoFlowcell works:

  87. oldbrew says:

    Climate fortune tellers are two-a-penny these days 🙂

  88. linneamogren says:


    I like that! Another example of doom 100 years from now. I saw one report in regards to that article on New York City and increased C02 levels causing surface temps to rise by longwave radiation.

    He wrote

    ” The partial derivative of heat with respect to increasing CO2 is unambiguously positive over its entire range. Just the increase in atmospheric mass requires additional heat to support its weight and pressure. “

  89. Doug Proctor says:

    The only reason ee are mucking about with these things is that we are told the CO2 emissions from primary gas/oil/gasoline engines is bad. The combined electricity system has some X product of CO2 per kW-hr, translatable for electric vehicles to Y CO2/km. I wonder how this “Y” value compares to similar weight class orthodox fossil fuel vehicle emissions.

  90. oldbrew says:

    ” The partial derivative of heat with respect to increasing CO2 is unambiguously positive over its entire range. Just the increase in atmospheric mass requires additional heat to support its weight and pressure. “

    The main so-called greenhouse gas (up to about 95%) is water vapour, CO2 is a small side show. The Wikipedia entry on water vapor is a joke as soon as it gets away from actual scientific facts.

  91. tallbloke says:

    “350 litres of saltwater sounds like a lot of weight,”

    A bit over 350Kg

  92. linneamogren says:

    @old brew / Roger

    Amplification is exactly what water vapour does with respect to thermal effects on atmospheric temperature. The alarmists admit vapour is the biggest GH gas, but since it leaves the atmosphere at a faster rate than C02 they assume this trapping is causing the GHE. But how can that be when clearly C02 lags behind temp increases in almost all cases? To me that seems to slam the doors shut on their hypotheses.

  93. oldbrew says:

    TB: a Nissan Leaf battery weighs 294 kg so the nanoflow system is heavier.

    @ linnea: there are various arguments used e.g. that the carbon cycle works slowly and man is accelerating it faster than nature can handle – or something like that.

    It’s all hypothesis and no proof of course.

  94. tallbloke says:

    Linnea. Let’s have this discussion on the Callendar thread. Repost your comment there please.

  95. oldbrew says:

    Yesterday’s weather forecast for Florida….

    ‘The ridiculously cold air has arrived here in Central Florida. After a frigid morning, expect a cold, sunny and windy afternoon. Daytime highs will run around 20 degrees below average for this time of the year in the metro area, climbing only into the low 50’s. Wind chill values will run in the 40’s with winds cranking out of the northwest 15-20 gusting up to 30 mph. Brace yourself for tonight as we will likely set record lows across Central Florida. Freeze warnings go into effect for Seminol…’


    Must be that air from the ‘warming Arctic’ playing tricks again 😉

  96. oldbrew says:

    NASA probes detect strange goings-on in Earth’s Van Allen radiation belts:

    ‘One question the mission seeks to answer is how the radiation belts give rise to ultrarelativistic electrons—particles that streak around the Earth at 1,000 kilometers per second, circling the planet in just five minutes. These high-speed particles can bombard satellites and spacecraft, causing irreparable damage to onboard electronics.’

    Read more at:


  97. linneamogren says:

    AGW’s best claim as to C02 leading temps.

    Some grist for our mill.

  98. linneamogren says:

    ” Mainstream climate scientists rejected that view and argued that carbon dioxide, while it certainly did not initiate the end of the ice age, played a vital role in the feedback loops that caused a substantial warming. Still, a long gap between initial increases of temperature and of carbon dioxide was somewhat difficult for the scientists to explain. ”

  99. Brett Keane says:

    Antarctic sea ice now increasing? Brett

  100. Stephen Richards says:

    Can someone in the UK get copies of the coming climate change scam program on the Brussells Broadcasting Co channels and ask Steve Mc if has the time to analyse the maths.

    Or Briggs would be almost as good.

  101. oldbrew says:

    William Briggs is seriously upset with reporters attacking Dr Willie Soon, one of his co-authors of a recent science paper that blew yet another hole in the Swiss cheese that is modern climate theory.

    ‘Goon Squad Fails To Distract Public From Fact That Climate Models Stink’

    Quote: ‘To expect mainstream science reporters to understand science is like asking an environmentalist to be reasonable. I should have remembered most journalists suffer from reporteritis, the degrading ailment whereby because reporters cover important people and events they come to believe they are important, too. Sadly, there is no known cure.’

    Briggs at Breitbart:

  102. While scanning comments at WUWT
    Leo Smith February 23, 2015 at 1:59 am

    ” In one of Castenada’s novels there is a story about a young man who left his poor village in Mexico and went to the city to get an education.
    On his return to the village years later he found that the villagers were in thrall to a man who had a book, out of which he read long passages. This book it appeared contained all they needed to solve their problems. However the young man noticed that the man was holding the book upside down.
    “Your hero is a fraud: He cannot read” he declared “And I can prove it, he is holding the book upside down!”
    “What difference does it make, to a man who can read, which way up the book is? ” retorted the man, and the villagers cheered…
    The problem is, that when people reject all of science already, a scientific refutation of global warming is (politically) meaningless.
    I too have been appalled by the standards of debate over this, and other, issues. I have come to a terrifying conclusion.
    Perhaps less than 10% of the population understands science at all, and of that 10% probably less than 10% actually understand the mathematical principles involved in the AGW proposition. And most of those are not in climate science.
    This is ultimately both something that has always been the case with science and indeed rational thought, and something that is deeply worrying right now, because we are in a deep crisis as a society and need better understanding than that.
    Humanity en masse proceeds along more or less bigoted lines according to the fashionable prejudices of the age. The AGW protagonists understand this: their business is to move the fashionable bigotry along to suit their agenda.
    If we step back a minute and regard the implications of what I propose to be the case, they are these: The vast majority of humanity is incapable for one reason or another of understanding the science and technology that forms the backdrop to their lives. And in a democracy that means they are more or less unfit to vote on matters that affect it.
    A small minority of ‘movers and shakers’ – and these days they are (to borrow Jilly Coopers terminology) the ‘Tellystocracy’ , the media luvvies and those who use mass media to ‘inform’ public debate – are the ones who count. They are the new elite, the new lords and masters of the brave new world, and it is this group that has been so thoroughly targeted and infiltrated by all and any group with a political or commercial axe to grind. It doesn’t matter what some obscure group of scientists believe, or what the mass of people believe, what matters is what this group do in terms of forming (rather than informing) public opinion.
    This group then are by and large the group that actually carries out political change. They are in charge of the fashionable bigotry that comprises what we have come to know and love as political correctness. That vast and loosely affiliated propaganda machine that tells us what to think about, and what to think about it.
    What we need to do if we are to introduce truth into this tissue of lies and deceit, is to make the case to the media/political luvvies that in fact their particular brand of bigotry is deeply dangerous to themselves as a class.
    In the case of AGW we have two main avenues through which this is happening.
    First of all the man in the street is getting fed up with falling standards of living, and his winters seeming just as cold wet and miserable as the summers are, despite claims it was the warmest year on record.
    Secondly the more astute members of the tellystocracy are becoming aware that infrastructure is for everyone, and that includes them. Victorian sewers were to protect the elite of the day from disease, by eliminating it from the great unwashed. This is a potent line of attack – Wind turbines and solar panels become not source of individual profit, but a disaster for all including those that profit from them.
    Ultimately the game is this: Science in its broadest terms is nothing more and nothing less than a means of predicting the future. Science says if we do this or that, the other will happen. The complex mathematical laws we deduce, infer or discover (according to your metaphysical picture of what Laws are) have no justification beyond the fact that they work, and what they say will come to pass, comes to pass, mostly.
    Science that fails to predict anything is untestable, and if it fails to produce the result that reality provides, it’s junk science or no science at all. You can summarise this by saying that in the long term reality trumps bullshit.
    Ultimately AGW either produces correct predictions or its junk, It’s looking to be junk. However that doesn’t stop people believing in it because it’s fashionable bigotry. But here we invoke Darwin. Societies that fail to realise what reality is, and cling to fashionable bigotry, will suffer accordingly. There are signs that the whole West will in fact ultimately collapse in an orgy of self destructive mutual deception and liberal angst. Or perhaps it will wake up and smell the coffee.
    And in the end, that is the conundrum. It is true to say that people are reasonably easily led, and that even those that lead them, are themselves subject to fashionable bigotry. That is a fact of life that we have to deal with. In the end we have only one yardstick that works to dispel the fog of Belief In Bullshit and that is Reality herself, and Reality is a hard mistress. If She needs to destroy entire societies that are so infected with irrational bullshit that they can no longer support themselves at all, She will.
    I don’t like to get political here, but this is to me the great argument for not having the sort of monolithic world government that the cultural Marxists of the UN and the ‘liberal and social’ democracies seem to espouse. that and we all go down together. Whereas having political islands of national ideologies at least allows for some diversity of political thought, and if the West becomes so decadent not because of Capitalism, but because of Marxism and its descendants itself, that it is in danger of falling to a stronger culture, maybe one of those political islands will have the tools and the strength to resist and prove to have the next line of fashionable bigotry to deal with the new reality.
    From my perspective there are two completely different dimensions in play here, and it helps not to confuse them.
    There is the technical and scientific reality of the data: that the world ain’t warming any more, never warmed very much, and windmills and solar panels are a complete waste of time and money, and destructive to boot, and if we want to stay alive in the absence of fossil fuel the logical alternative is nuclear power.
    That these things are provably and demonstrably true is, however, irrelevant to the second dimension, which is what people think.
    Or can be induced to believe. And here there is in fact a world war in progress, World War III. Its not being fought with weapons (much) that kill, directly, but with weapons that corrupt thinking. It is a war of propaganda and competing ideologies, none of which have a particularly strong basis in Reality, because Reality is pretty damned complicated, and its easier to get people to believe in simple stuff. ‘Four legs good – two legs bad’ sort of stuff.
    I have to say that I have more or less given up on the science: The jury is in for people to understand the maths and the physics and how real science works. AGW is a crock of shit, and that’s that.
    The real game is the war for hearts and minds. And that is a game of psychology, propaganda, money, power, politics, greed, fear, uncertainty and doubt. If we can’t win it, it will in the end destroy Western civilisation, and so it should. If we have no answer for lies, we don’t deserve to make it.
    Once we had a system that worked. The brightest and best, and a few of the rich, got excellent educations and were indoctrinated with a culture of care for those less fortunate, and a sense of duty towards the masses. They did what they considered to be right, after duly listening to the problems.
    Today that is destroyed by egalitarianism, which ensures that no one at all gets a good education that everyone cannot afford. Except for a very very few – too few – people who espouse state education but manage to avoid it in the case of their children. Worse, they dont educate them into the actualities of science and technology even then, they educate them into the practical techniques of propaganda. We have in short a generation of peole who are highly skilled in the manipulation of public opinion, but no idea how a smart phone works. People ideally placed to control and dominate a society, and take from it all its riches, but without actually having even the most basic understanding of how those riches are created.
    Such a situation is dynamically unstable. We, the technologists, are not screaming out for recognition ‘because its unfair’ or ‘because its morally indefensible’. No, we have a much quieter but devastatingly powerful message. “If you don’t take at least some notice of Reality, you will in fact die of ignorance, and likely take us with you”.
    *shrug* If they don’t listen, it’s Goodnight Vienna. We wont be the first culture to commit racial suicide in pursuit of idiotic beliefs.”

    dbstealey February 23, 2015 at 2:56 am

    Leo Smith, You’re one in a million! Thanks for posting that, I’m in complete agreement. The problem isn’t science; that is 100% on the side of skeptics of MMGW. The problem is human nature. Some people/groups have that figured out, and that’s bad news for the rest of us.

    A.D. Everard February 23,2015 at 4:30 am

    Leo, your comment should be a post in itself. It should be widely read. This is so much what needs to be understood. Thank you.

    George Tetley February 23,2015 at 12:49 am

    WOW !!!

  103. linneamogren says:

    Eastern half of states locked into a freezer! So, GW is now about being cold here, being hot over there, ice melting and building on and on.

  104. Baz says:

    Hi Roger,
    I came across this in the local newspaper (NZ Herald) a few weeks back.

    Quote in newly published findings , the team has discovered a chain of effects that begin in space and results in changes in wind patterns that impact temperatures on earth Unquote

    Have not been able to find any other information.
    [co-mod: have a look at erl happ’s site, linked left sidebar, related to eg. SST? –Tim]

  105. Chaeremon says:

    Update in Solar Forcing Geological Society [h/t Sebastian Lüning]

    Solar forcing of Holocene summer sea-surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic
    by Hui Jiang1, Raimund Muscheler2, Svante Björck2, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz3, Jesper Olsen4, Longbin Sha1,3, Jesper Sjolte2, Jón Eiríksson5, Lihua Ran6, Karen-Luise Knudsen3 and Mads F. Knudsen3
    Mounting evidence from proxy records suggests that variations in solar activity have played a significant role in triggering past climate changes. However, the mechanisms for sun-climate links remain a topic of debate. Here we present a high-resolution summer sea-surface temperature (SST) record covering the past 9300 yr from a site located at the present-day boundary between polar and Atlantic surface-water masses. The record is age constrained via the identification of 15 independently dated tephra markers from terrestrial archives, circumventing marine reservoir age variability problems. Our results indicate a close link between solar activity and SSTs in the northern North Atlantic during the past 4000 yr; they suggest that the climate system in this area is more susceptible to the influence of solar variations during cool periods with less vigorous ocean circulation. Furthermore, the high-resolution SST record indicates that climate in the North Atlantic regions follows solar activity variations on multidecadal to centennial time scales.

  106. scute1133 says:

    @ Lord Beaverbrook. Mann says it’s difficult to know when in the next “few decades” the resumption will be. Seeing as “few” means three or more, Mann has just turned a 14-year halt into a 44-year halt. I’d say that’s quite a feat of climatological prestidigitation.

  107. Douglas Proctor says:

    I just read David Archibald’s book “Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will be Nasty, Brutish, and Short” (2014, Regnery Publishing 208 pp. US $27.99/Can $30.99).

    Holy cow.

    The book is NOT science. It is not explaining the “coming ice age”. It is a scary diatribe against non-Republican, non-US, non-Christian, non-private-property-American-value-culture life. It is a vision of the Biblical Apocalypse justly visited upon the unbelievers, the impious and the non-capitalist circa-1942. The Climate Change or Global Warming is just a hoax perpetrated on Godly people to steal their money, their power and perpetuate lies, cabals and other sinister agendas. All believers are fools, corrupt and fellow-travelers of despots and neo-Stalinists. “…hopefully they will be duly punished, in this world or the next. (pg.28).” The only useful thing the global warming craze has done is identify who is the enemy. “…Any politician who has stated a belief in global warming is either a cynical opportunist of an easily deluded fool…. No excuses can be accepted. (pg. 5)”

    Holy herd of cows.

    Back to the book:

    Archibald proposes two things will happen, and they will happen by 2020:

    1) the fall of global temperatures of at least 2C, to the levels of the mid-1770s and 2) non-US cultured countries dissolving due to population growth in excess of the capacity to raise and/or purchase grain supplies for their people as temperatures fall and the upper limit of growing of wheat moves 300 km south (goodbye Canada).

    The worst will transpire in the Middle East, Yemen and Afghanistan being first. And rightly so: largely because the mid-East countries are culturally barbaric. Their barbarism is fundamentally because they are Islamic. Islam, BTW, came about when “…Its originator had been attending church services in Mecca, following a particular preacher, and then decided to start his own religion..(pg 82).” And who is this “originator”? He can’t bring himself to type “Mohammed”, in case his fingertips catch fire?)

    The Mid-East countries will descend into chaos, and their populations collapse to 5-10% of current levels due to starvation and internal warring. The warring will then extend between countries, particularly to Israel, and will be full nuclear. But not before China attacks Japan, perhaps this year, and the US traitors to morality (Obama and friends) fail to act to protect the friends of the morally good. But the wars won’t be fought well: “…the ability of countries in the region to wage conventional wars has declined dramatically. The reason is that all the players now import a high proportion of their food requirements … It is hard to project power conventionally when your own population is on the edge of serious food shortages, and thus likely starvation (pg. 95).” Tell that to the armament industries, and don’t worry about deficit spending or borrowing money.

    It’s a page-turner, all right.

    Each chapter begins with a quote from Revelations. Could be stylistic, but just in case you are not sure of his cultural leanings, in the Postscript, pg. 186, the top line of the first paragraph reads: “For the United States, God’s almost chosen people, ….”. The people of the United States are only the “almost” chosen because, evidently, they voted in and support Barrack Obama instead of someone like Winston Churchill, whose view he admires so much as to quote his 1899 denunciation of “Mohammedanism” (…Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish method of commerce … a degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity…”). The depth of intellectual knowledge, history and cultural understanding is staggering.

    I picked up “Twilight of Abundance” yesterday, thinking I should check his latest missive out for he is well-known in the skeptic community (though I have previously picked holes in his “science” and questioned the motives of his wild claims). Within three pages I retreated to my study to find a yellow marker pen to highlight outrageous statements and problematic claims. I used up the pen’s luminous ink by the end of its 187 pages of text.

    Did you know

    – That the Western world should stop all attempts at relieving the sufferings of anyone outside a handful of countries that emulate the US, as those attempts are doomed to failure due to the others’ moral and cultural inferiority? They are done for, as “Culture Is Destiny” (title Chapter Four). – That the war in Afghanistan is and was (repeatedly) only useful as a field exercise in weapons development and use? It developed the use of Predator drones which, he suggests, we could use to kill much of the mid-East peoples at little risk to ourselves. – That nuking anyone who uses a nuke on anyone else is not just something the U.S. should do as part of a national policy, but one that we should ask Russia to join us in (pg. 101).

    Did you also know

    – That nothing but thorium-salt reactors are going to bring in the happy future in which “Mankind’s forward progress to the ideal state, a more perfect way of organizing society …(pg. 176)” can exist? – That (pg 186 again) “Humanity has been given a perfect planet to inhabit. The proportion of ocean to land is just right to sustain a mild climate … And the atmosphere has the ideal composition and thickness…” – That socialism “… is not a positive development; it is a reversion to an earlier stage of human evolution that became outdated 50,000 years ago (pg. 81).

    Perhaps you would understand better if you recognized the significance of this:

    – the Chinese Politburo “… has seven members, in an echo of the seven-headed red dragon described in the quotation from Revelation at the beginning of this chapter. (pg. 121).” and – These perfidious Chinese are technical wizards to be feared, no doubt: “…On April 1, 2000, a Chinese jet fighter back into a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft flying at 22,000 feet ….”.

    Good flying. Backwards.

    The science …. everything he has ever said or done has, apparently, been confirmed by others, even if you have to go back twenty years to find the support. But we don’t need to talk about the details. The science apparently is as settled, and the outcome, as certain as any statement by the IPCC. The world is coming apart and hellfire will come down within five years – yes, before the end of this decade.

    The most important thing about this book is the cruel light it shines on the American educational system and American understanding of anything that doesn’t sport a stars-and-stripe strip of cloth. Archibald, from the back cover, is a “visiting fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., where he teaches a course in Strategic Energy Policy. God (Allah, Shiva and any other deity you know) needs to protect us from such a teacher.

    On the back cover, Anthony Watts, James Delingpole and Burt Rutan all praise the book. I suspect – I hope, anyway – that none of them read it anywhere else but in a pub with a few drinks inside.

    On Thu, Feb 26, 2015 at 3:01 PM, Tallbloke’s Talkshop wrote:

    > Lord Beaverbrook commented: “OMG. catchup time! > > “

  108. @ scute1133

    It’s difficult to know because they haven’t got a clue, a couple of decades takes it out of the political cycle, The end is nigh!

  109. “The remaining potential of Europe’s coal resource far exceeds that of its oil and gas. In the EU, we exploit coal with technologies that have seen sulphur emissions reduce by 80% since 1990. Carbon emissions from the newest coal plants are 30-40% lower than from the old plants still found in some member states. Improving the efficiency of coal plants around the world would reduce carbon emissions by more than the Kyoto Protocol targets and conserve our energy resources.

    Looking ahead, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is now a proven technology, thanks to the Boundary Dam plant in Canada. It is the only technology that would make a material difference to carbon emissions over the next thirty years. Unfortunately, leaders have not persuaded citizens anywhere that the cost of CCS is a cost worth paying, despite it offering a cheaper route to reduced emissions than some of the mature renewable technologies that are still heavily subsidised. We will continue to use coal to meet electricity demand; worldwide, 1.3 billion people still live without this basic lifeblood of a civilised society.

    We will continue to use coal in the EU; economics will trump ideology and the coal industry will continue to deliver performance improvements. Outlawing coal would be a divisive and backwards step for humanity. Technological progress is the only way forward and coal offers progress.”

  110. oldbrew says:

    Lord B: the Boundary Dam project doesn’t seem to do much of the ‘storage’ bit of CCS.

    ‘The captured CO2 will be transported by pipeline to nearby oil fields in southern Saskatchewan where it will be used for enhanced oil recovery’

    That’s probably the only way the ‘carbon capture’ part can be made anywhere near economic.

  111. Carbon emissions from the newest coal plants are 30-40% lower than from the old plants still found in some member states. Improving the efficiency of coal plants around the world would reduce carbon emissions by more than the Kyoto Protocol targets and conserve our energy resources.

    Job done, everyone happy….. almost!

  112. Lord Beaverbrook says: February 27, 2015 at 2:20 pm

    “Carbon emissions from the newest coal plants are 30-40% lower than from the old plants still found in some member states. Improving the efficiency of coal plants around the world would reduce carbon emissions by more than the Kyoto Protocol targets and conserve our energy resources. Job done, everyone happy….. almost!”

    Does any Earthling actually believe the nonsense of atmospheric CO2 doing anything?
    What besides vast expansion of nuclear power generation and distribution, can possibly contribute to the survival of Earthlings, plants, and even some other really neat critters, through the next inevitable ice age? Perhaps a complete restart from scratch is better.

  113. David in Kent says:

    This Tallbloke Talkshop community might be interested in this little bad tempered discussion about the ability of current math and computers to contribute anything useful to climate discussions.

  114. Doug Proctor says:

    Soon’s crime was not to think outside the IPCC box but to think common sense outside the box.

    The official narrative is that the problem is probabilistic, that we cannot know the outcome except as a spread of potentials. This forces the use of Precautionary Principle strategies. Soon et al show that a practical short-cut is deterministic. There is no spread of outcomes if you stick to existing, agreed-to limits on the variables. You know pretty much what is going to happen. And that catastrophe is not in the cards.

    Which means the Precautionary Principle doesn’t apply. Mitigation and adaptation are the appropriate responses, determined as we go along. Civilization does not need to be rebooted. Which is what the liberal eco-green wants to do.

    CAGW and the IPCC survive only when climate is seen as a probabilistic problem with an extreme range of outcomes. Models have to come from complex algorithms whirling around in “black boxes”. Anyone who says a reasonable expectation can be determined with an APP that ordinary people can understand is an extreme threat. Citizens can form good opinions without reference to the elites. The current opinion-makers are understandingly horrified.

    Soon et al are indirectly pointing out that 111 of 114 IPCC models run “hot”. The reasonable range of possible outcomes is narrow and looks like the lowest 3. The calamity is not in anthropogenic CO2; the calamity is in A-CO2 science, and the ordinary voter can determine this himself.

  115. Brett Keane says:

    From today, maybe new questions: “These data come from the AIM spacecraft, which was launched in 2007 to monitor NLCs (noctilucent clouds) from Earth orbit. The curves show the abundance (“frequency”) of the clouds vs. time for 120 days around every southern summer solstice for the past 8 years.

    “This past season was not like the others,” notes Cora Randall, a member of the AIM science team and the chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado. “The clouds were much more variable, and there was an enormous decrease in cloud frequency 15 to 25 days after the summer solstice. That’s when the clouds are usually most abundant.”

    What does this mean? Previous research shows that NLCs are a sensitive indicator of long-range teleconnections in Earth’s atmosphere, which link weather and climate across hemispheres. The strange behavior of noctilucent clouds in 2014-2015 could be a sign of previously unknown linkages. “Preliminary indications are that it is indeed due to inter-hemispheric teleconnections,” says Randall. “We’re still analyzing the data, so stay tuned.” ” Looks like something Ren might be interested in. Brett

    [mod: –Tim]

  116. oldbrew says:

    ‘Giant methane storms on Uranus’

    But isn’t methane what natural gas is made of?

    Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed when layers of buried plants, gases, and animals are exposed to intense heat and pressure over thousands of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in natural gas. Natural gas is a non-renewable resource because it cannot be replenished on a human time frame. Natural gas is a hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane

    Fossils on Uranus anyone?

  117. tchannon says:

    Brett Keane, That looks a good watch so whilst I am leery of most “teleconnections” high atmosphere, magnetics, etc. are more reasonable. There are normal effects such as ionosphere variations regionally and seasonally, none fully understood. Cloud effects, I expect so.

    Note folks, I’ll be rolling over Suggestions to the next page soon.

  118. Stephen Richards says:

    This the latest Brussels Broadcaster’s piece. It says that they might have to abandon HoC because of the need for expensive repairs.

    It won’t matter. In 5 yrs or so the HoC and HoL will be serving no useful function (not that they do now). Europe is already reforming around the project for a Russian style federation.

    In France we are in the process of reducing our departements (~95) to 13 terretories. Britain will have between 7 and 11 so will be out voted by france on every issue. Britain will become the second biggest contributer with absolutely no representation at the centre. That’s the definition of tyranny and that’s what the EU is.

    Cameron knows what is happening, that’s why he is talking about moving power to the regions but, in reality, power will rest with the centre (kremlin) with a rubber stamping parliament ( the Dumas).

    Europe is implementing the russian model of ‘democracy’.

    Fairly soon the regional directors (currently MEP) will make up the dumas in Brussels while the unelected commissars ‘Kremlin’ will run the centre. Prime Ministers will cease to exist, effectively although they will remain in name, as will finance ministers and the courts of each ‘state’. All law making except for state by-laws will be withdrawn to the centre as will federal level taxation and financial control. All this may be only 5 yrs away. Police, armed forces and other goverment functions will also move in part to the centre. The police and law transfer has already begun. By 2017 all police forces will be linked. You will be proscecuted in the country where you offend and you will be traceable and arrested under the EU warrant wherever you are.

    So, why did cameron choose 2017 for the EU referendum ? Is it possible that the Lisbon treaty gave a deadline related to this date for the withdrawal of all lawmaking and enforcement to the centre? Is it possible that, even if the UK votes to withdraw from the eu, by 2017 it will not be possible? I haven’t read the full Lisbon treaty and I suspect only very few people have.

    Just speculating !!

    I was a senior project manager in my later life and the one thing I was always absolutely sure of was that you can run nothing with a commitee of 27. If you need to make a decision you need a max of 5. Think about it! When the Polis started this project even these idiots would have realised that you can only manage 27 countries through a dictatorship otherwise no decision would ever be made.


    Go for it Roger T.

    Incidently, I watched your introduction as a PPC for Pudsey (with your other Leeds colleagues), on the web. It brought back strong memories of my opening campaign introduction here in france only I had to do it in french. I wrote a little introductio, took the paper with me and was so nervous that I couldn’t unfold the paper and read it. You did OK roger. Looked a lot less nervous than I know I was.


  119. Michele says:

    Monitoring period :18-20 March
    Input : new moon, perigee and eclipse,_2015


  120. Technically, “silly” is one of the few accurate, non libelous, words used to describe the spoutings of any side of the CAGW/CC nonsense! Look at the WIKI images of the word, for understanding!

  121. manicbeancounter says:

    I have been looking into Real Climates defence of temperature adjustments last month, and ended up unearthing some of the volatile temperature fluctuations on earth in Spitzbergen. Also I find maybe a record temperature adjustment (though someone may contradict it) of 4.0C in a year and 5.4C in a month.

    I have also found a truly amazing weather station. Isfjord Radio was producing raw data from 1912, but was only constructed in 1934. Furthermore, it was destroyed in 1941 to stop it falling into German hands, and a replacement not constructed until 1946. But there is raw data available continuously throughout the war.

  122. oldbrew says:

    We’re told 96% of the universe is ‘missing’ and galaxies do nearly the opposite of what models predict, but ‘big physics’ thinks it can come up with a new improved theory of everything. Well, they would say that wouldn’t they?

  123. oldbrew says:

    Ireland’s energy future looking more than a bit iffy…

    ‘Ireland’s energy crisis’

  124. I’ve asked why the IPCC models haven’t been cut back as observations don’t follow most of them. Feedback has been minimal. But now I understand.

    The disconnect skeptics “see” is at a level of detail the warmists – and professional skeptics – understand is irrelevant. The disconnect is only optics. For investigative purposes, the match from 1880 is “good enough”.

    Uncertainty is not unknown, just not discussed professionally. Which is why even Judith Curry doesn’t complain about the technical aspect, just the uncertainty. She agrees the results are both as good as it gets and reasonable under the circumstances. There is no significant disconnect between models and observations – as far as either is built or known. The publicized uncertainty is the only current issue.

    NOAA June 2015, HadCrT4, UAH or RSS – the truth is all in the wash still. We just feed into the drama by pointing to the last 18 years of satellite data (where the differences are greatest). The professionals just shrug. It don’t mean much. The fact is you can take any you want at this point – even Mann’s – and be equally valid in the claim. Not necessarily right, but your claim is equally valid.

    Which reveals an actual Truth. Belief, self-interest and ideology, not facts, run the game. The only value in arguing the skeptic side with “facts” at this point is to slow down the action until nature tells us unequivocally what is going on. Which will take at least another 10 years. At least.

    What a tragic waste of time, money and creative resources.

  125. tallbloke says:

    Doug, you need to repost this on the newer suggestions 16 page linked at the top of the blog.

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