Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking, say researchers

Article: ‘Since observational measurements started, blocking in the Arctic has increased, as has Arctic warming.’ When researchers investigated ‘they found a stunning correlation’. No mention of greenhouse gases in the study.
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A team of scientists led by François Lapointe, a research associate at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, has combined paleoclimatic data from the last 2,000 years with powerful computer modeling and in-the-field research on lake sediments and tree rings to show that an understudied phenomenon, known as atmospheric blocking, has long influenced temperature swings in the Arctic.

As temperatures warm due to climate change, claims EurekAlert, atmospheric blocking will help drive ever-wilder weather events. [Talkshop comment – routine alarmist hype].

The study focused on the Norwegian Arctic archipelago, Svalbard, at the edge of the Arctic Ocean, and was published in Nature Communications.

NASA mission flies over Arctic to study sea ice melt causes – calling ‘settled science’ into question?

NASA says: “There are many different factors that influence the sea ice. We’re measuring them to determine which were most important to melting ice this summer.” Where does that leave so-called ‘state-of-the-art’ climate models? They’re only going to be measuring seasonal factors, not longer-term cycles for example, but it’s at least an attempt to look harder at the whole topic.
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It’s not just rising air and water temperatures influencing the decades-long decline of Arctic sea ice, says NASA (via Phys.org).

Clouds, aerosols, even the bumps and dips on the ice itself can play a role.

To explore how these factors interact and impact sea ice melting, NASA is flying two aircraft equipped with scientific instruments over the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland this summer.

NASA launches ‘ground-breaking’ climate change satellite

It turns out that ‘Until now the models that climate change scientists used to gauge heat loss were based on theories rather than real observations’. In other words, little or no data from the polar regions, so claims of Earth ‘overheating’ are lacking vital information. SciTech Daily says: ‘The PREFIRE CubeSats use advances in spectrometry to measure processes associated with ice melt and formation, snow melt and accumulation, and changes in cloud cover.’
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A tiny NASA satellite was launched Saturday from New Zealand with the mission of improving climate change prediction by measuring heat escaping from Earth’s poles for the first time, says Phys.org.

“This new information—and we’ve never had it before—will improve our ability to model what’s happening in the poles, what’s happening in climate,” NASA’s earth sciences research director Karen St. Germain told a recent news conference.

The satellite, which is the size of a shoe box, was launched by an Electron rocket, built by a company called Rocket Lab, which lifted off from Mahia in the north of New Zealand. The overall mission is called PREFIRE.

Lunar-driven Barents Sea climate — The Climate Clock

Professor Harald Yndestad writes (here): ‘The Kola-section data analysis revealed, for the first time, that Arctic climate variations are controlled by the earth’s rotation and the moon’. He refers to ‘the riddle of a 6-year cycle in the cod population’ and comments: ‘My estimates reveal we are at a turning point and moving into a colder period and more ice extent.’ The 6-year cycle reminded me of a Talkshop post featuring a paper by astronomer Willy de Rop, in which he wrote, with illustrations: ‘We will now consider how often such a situation of maximum tides will occur. The perigee moves 0.164 358 002 0 a day relative to the node, corresponding to 360° in a period p 2 190.340565 days. If at the same time this moment of maximum influence coincides with the moment at which the Earth is in the perihelion of its orbit, the tides will reach an absolute maximum. So, when the perigee of the Moon’s orbit coincides with the ascending node, then this situation repeats after 2190.340565 days. This period p corresponds to 5.996 667 350 anomalistic years, thus nearly an entire number of anomalistic years.’ In other words, almost six years. It’s the beat period of the (lunar) anomalistic and tropical months, also of the full moon cycle and draconic year. Whether this plays a part in the cod discussion is an open question.
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In nature, nothing acts alone, writes Prof. Harald Yndestad. Therefore, something outside the cod stock, causes recruitment in periods of 6 years.

The source may be a 6-year temperature cycle in the Barents Sea. If the temperature in the Barents Sea has a period of 6 years, it must also have a source outside the Barents Sea. This means that there must be a first cause. A cause of causes, for temperature variations in the Barents Sea.

So, what is periodic in nature? Could the source be the tides or in the earth’s rotation? I contacted an astrophysicist.

Polar vortex is ‘spinning backwards’ above Arctic after major reversal event

The new polar vortex blog hosted by NOAA says ‘some winters come and go without a single interesting thing happening in the stratosphere’, but this one wasn’t one of those. The blog also notes: ‘Odds of polar vortex collapse boosted during El Niño…But not all the El Niños’. The article below says ‘Changes to the polar vortex influence the jet stream, which can in turn impact weather across the Northern Hemisphere’ (caption to NOAA graphic).
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The polar vortex circling the Arctic is swirling in the wrong direction after surprise warming in the upper atmosphere triggered a major reversal event earlier this month, says Live Science.

It is one of the most extreme atmospheric U-turns seen in recent memory.

In the past, disruptions to the polar vortex — a rotating mass of cold air that circles the Arctic — have triggered extremely cold weather and storms across large parts of the U.S.

The current change in the vortex’s direction probably won’t lead to a similar “big freeze.” But the sudden switch-up has caused a record-breaking “ozone spike” above the North Pole.

Climate change: The ‘insane’ plan to save the Arctic’s sea-ice

Is this just another toytown publicity stunt to keep promoting the notion that there’s some climate problem, supposedly caused by human activities, requiring urgent corrective measures?
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Perched on sea-ice off Canada’s northern coast, parka-clad scientists watch saltwater pump out over the frozen ocean.

Their goal? To slow global warming, says BBC News.

As sea-ice vanishes, the dark ocean surface can absorb more of the Sun’s energy, which accelerates warming. So the researchers want to thicken it to stop it melting away.

When the global climate has the hiccups – ‘repeated rapid increases in temperature’

Promoters of a current ‘climate crisis’ often call modern warming and/or events within it, ‘unprecedented’. However, compared to events like this: “A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life” [explains Prof.], not much is presently going on. Climate variability can happen in different ways, and repeat over long timescales.
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In recent geological history, the so-called Quaternary period, there have been repeated ice ages and warm periods, says Science Daily.

Researchers are able to determine past climate variability from the composition of climate records. In the case of the last glacial period 100,000 years ago, ice cores from Greenland in particular provide researchers with detailed data.

For example, Greenland ice cores show that there were repeated rapid increases in temperature.

“We are talking about increases of 5 to 10 degrees within 30 to 40 years on average in the case of Europe. A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life,” explains Prof. Dominik Fleitmann, Professor of Quaternary Geology at the University of Basel.

He calls the phenomena “climate hiccups.”

These Dansgaard-Oeschger events are well documented for the last glacial period, but the climate records from Greenland only cover the last 120,000 years.

It was therefore previously unknown whether these Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period 135,000 to 190,000 years ago.

Frederick Held, a PhD candidate in Fleitmann’s research group, was able to show that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period using isotopic measurements on stalagmites.

He is the lead author of the study which was published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

The North Atlantic as the source of change

The stalagmites examined originate from the Sofular Cave in Turkey, which is located in a region that is very sensitive to climate change.

The researchers therefore refer to it as a key region, as it is influenced by the winds of the North Atlantic and the Black Sea is just a few kilometers away.

“We used the isotopic composition in the stalagmites to determine the moisture sources from which they are formed — the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic,” explains Frederick Held.

For the first time, the evaluations carried out on the stalagmites from the Sofular Cave have proven that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period.

“It was previously unknown whether these relatively brief temperature events actually happened in earlier glacial periods,” states Held.

However, they occurred less frequently in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one: “The temperature peaks are twice as far apart from one another, meaning there were longer cold phases between them.”

These temperature fluctuations originate in the North Atlantic, as the circulation of the ocean is a global conveyor belt for heat and can sometimes be stronger and sometimes weaker.

“For example, the circulation affects the exchange of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean, which, in turn, impacts the balance of heat in the Northern Hemisphere and air flows and rainfall,” explains Held.

He states that weakened circulation also reduces the quantity of CO2 which the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere.

These ocean currents were different in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one, which explains the different intervals between the Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

This shows that not all glacial periods are the same and not all warm periods are the same.
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The geologist also hopes to clarify any outstanding questions by means of additional analyses. “For example, we do not yet know whether the increases in temperature were periodic or stochastic, in other words random.”

Full article here.

Image: Greenland ice core [credit: K. Makinson @ Wikipedia]

February Arctic ice ahead of recent comparisons

February Arctic Ice Jumps Over 15 Wadhams a Month Early

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Let’s see how this plays out over the full season.

New study reports that Greenland is a methane sink rather than a source

Greenland settlement [image credit: climatechangepost.com]

A large dent goes in to thawing permafrost scares, as another ‘ticking time bomb’ based on greenhouse gas theories turns out to be a dud. As for carbon dioxide, the professor leading the study commented: “…the ice-free parts of Greenland have only been without ice since the last ice age, meaning that they never stored much carbon”. Climate models will have to be revised.
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Researchers at the University of Copenhagen have concluded that the methane uptake in dry landscapes exceeds methane emissions from wet areas across the ice-free part of Greenland.

The results of the new study contribute important knowledge to climate models, says Phys.org.

The researchers are now investigating whether the same finding applies to other polar regions.

Send more funds: Earth system models are missing key piece of future climate puzzle, researchers say

Alaskan permafrost: [image credit: insideclimatenews.org]

The ’emissions’ obsessives of climate research seek greater financing for the endless quest for evidence that might support their theories. The subject here is permafrost, but it also reads like an admission that climate is more complicated than current models can cope with, for a number of reasons.
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The way science is funded is hampering Earth system models, and may be skewing important climate predictions, according to a new comment published in Nature Climate Change by Woodwell Climate Research Center and an international team of model experts, says Phys.org.

Emissions from thawing permafrost, frozen ground in the North that contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does and is thawing due to human-caused climate warming [Talkshop comment – the usual empty assertion], are one of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections.

But accurate representation of permafrost dynamics is missing from the major models that project future carbon emissions.

Polar vortex wobbled ‘like a top’ in December

The Polar Vortex Wobbled in December

Unusual but not unheard of.
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‘Since the December outbreak of PSCs [polar stratospheric clouds], which ended around Christmas, the polar stratosphere has warmed more than 30 degrees Celsius.’

Study finds oceanic carbon cycle still works for carbon dioxide uptake

The ocean carbon cycle [credit: IAEA]

Of course it does, but there seems a hint of surprise in the findings. It’s long been known that colder water absorbs more atmospheric CO2, just as warmer water absorbs less. Anyone familiar with fizzy drinks knows the story, or ought to. The article here announces that ‘the oceans present vast and promising potential for storing carbon dioxide’. Surely this is not regarded as news? As for potential, it’s always happened.
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The recent cold spell has plunged South Korea into a deep freeze, resulting in the closure of 247 national parks, the cancellation of 14 domestic flights, and the scrapping of 107 cruise ship voyages, says Phys.org.

While the cold snap brought relief by significantly reducing the prevalence of particulate matter obscuring our surroundings, a recent study indicates that, besides diminishing particulate matter, it significantly contributes to the heightened uptake of carbon dioxide by the East Sea.

According to research conducted by a team of researchers, including Professor Kitack Lee from the Division of Environmental Science & Engineering at Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) and Professor Tongsup Lee and So-Yun Kim from the Department of Oceanography at Pusan National University, the cold atmosphere in the Arctic is influencing the absorption of carbon dioxide by the East Sea.

Early start for seasonal polar stratospheric clouds

An Outbreak of Polar Stratospheric Clouds

An unusual temperature drop in the polar stratosphere.
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NASA (2008) said:
Scientists recently discovered that polar stratospheric clouds, long known to play an important role in Antarctic ozone destruction, are occurring with increasing frequency in the Arctic. These high altitude clouds [which] form only at very low temperatures help destroy ozone in two ways.
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NASA Ozone Watch (Images, data, and information for the Northern Hemisphere).

Yndestad: A Cold Climate Period is coming

Prof. Harald Yndestad explains the research and calculations behind his ideas, and how he not only came to question IPCC-type predictions of large temperature rises in the next decades, but arrived at his own.
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Climate data series reveals we are moving into a new serious cold climate period.

1. Solar irradiation from the sun has a computed maximum in 2017 and deep minimum in 2050.
2. Solar forced climate variation has a computed 500-year maximum in 2025, and a 1000-year deep minimum in 2070AD.

Read more here.

New research looks at ‘stalled trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice loss since 2007’

Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca]

Not the often-quoted ‘rapid decline’ any more then. But what’s behind the stalled trend? The researchers point to a climate cycle known as the Arctic dipole, first proposed in 2006, which ‘reverses itself’, and should (they say) be about to do so again. Are declining solar cycles accompanied by greatly reduced geomagnetic activity (see here) in the same recent years another factor, or just coincidental?
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New research by an international team of scientists explains what’s behind a stalled trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice loss since 2007, says Phys.org.

The findings indicate that stronger declines in sea ice will occur when an atmospheric feature known as the Arctic dipole reverses itself in its recurring cycle.

The many environmental responses to the Arctic dipole are described in a paper published online today in the journal Science. This analysis helps explain how North Atlantic water influences Arctic Ocean climate.

Scientists call it Atlantification.

Earlier and earlier high-Arctic spring replaced by ‘extreme year-to-year variation’, say researchers

Still waiting

This observation doesn’t correlate with monotonic CO2 rise data. Apparently we’re left looking at ‘tremendous natural climate variability’, which doesn’t sound much like the claims and expectations of prevalent IPCC-type theories. The researchers say ‘temperature increases have stalled’, and ‘the previously observed trend has disappeared completely’. Little wonder then that some Arctic alarmists have been less shrill in recent years — their trend melted away.
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About 15 years ago, researchers reported that the timing of spring in high-Arctic Greenland had advanced at some of the fastest rates of change ever seen anywhere in the world.

But, according to new evidence, that earlier pattern has since been completely erased.

Instead of coming earlier and earlier, it seems the timing of Arctic spring is now driven by tremendous climate variability with drastic differences from one year to the next.

“As scientists we are obliged to revisit previous work to see whether the knowledge obtained at that time still holds,” says Niels Martin Schmidt of Aarhus University in Denmark.

Arctic Ice in Surplus June 2023

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Data shows Northern Hemisphere ice extent remains greater than the 17 year average for this particular month.

Science Matters

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 151 (end of May) through yesterday June 30, 2023  As usual, the Pacific basins Bering and Okhotsk (far left) became ice-free and are no longer included in these updates. Years vary as to which regions retain more or less ice.  For example, this year Hudson Bay (bottom right) lost half its ice by June 30, earlier than average.  That is a shallow basin and can quickly lose its ice in coming days.  Despite this early melting, the NH Ice extent remains greater than the 17 year average.

The graph below compares the June monthly ice extents 2007 to 2023 and compared to the SII 17 year average.

Clearly June ice appears as a plateau, and most years MASIE shows greater extents than SII, with differences of only a few 100k km2.  Previously 2019-20 were in deficit to average, but June 2022-3 have…

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Despite being acutely exposed to changing climate, many Greenlanders do not blame human influences

Greenland scene

But…climate models show…blah blah. How dare they?!
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A new survey shows that the largely Indigenous population of Greenland is highly aware that the climate is changing, and far more likely than people in other Arctic nations to say they are personally affected, says Phys.org.

Yet, many do not blame human influences—especially those living traditional subsistence lifestyles most directly hit by the impacts of rapidly wasting ice and radical changes in weather.

The study appears this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Claim: Ozone treaty is delaying first ice-free Arctic summer

Sea ice optional? [image credit: BBC]

Why has it taken so long for greenhouse gas obsessives to come up with this, using ‘new climate model simulations’? The Arctic summer sea ice was supposed to be on its last legs at least fifteen years ago. Of course natural variation is ignored or discounted, as usual.
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A 1987 global deal to protect the ozone layer is delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer by up to 15 years, new research shows.

The Montreal Protocol – the first treaty to be ratified by every United Nations country – regulates nearly 100 man-made chemicals called ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), says EurekAlert.

While the main aim was to preserve the ozone layer, ODSs are also potent greenhouse gases, so the deal has slowed global warming.

The new study shows the effects of this include delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer (currently projected to happen the middle of this century) by up to 15 years, depending on future emissions.

1875 was coldest in 10,000 years, Warming A Good Thing

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‘We made ourselves an extremely poor experiment when we started to observe meteorology at the coldest time in the last ten thousand years.’ – Indeed.

Science Matters

Jørgen Peder Steffensen, of Denmark’s Niels Bohr Institute, is one of the most experienced experts in ice core analysis, in both Greenland and Antarctica. In this video he explains a coincidence that has misled those alarmed about the warming recovery since the Little Ice Age.  And if you skip to 2:25, you will see the huge error we have made and the assumptions and extrapolations based on that error.  Transcript below is from closed captions with my bolds and added images. H/T Raymond

What do ice cores tell us about the history of climate change and the present trend? 

This ice is from the Viking age around the year one thousand, also called the medieval warm period. We believe that in Greenland the Medieval Warm Period was about one and a half degrees warmer on average than today

NorthGRIP the Greenland ice core project is being reopened to drill…

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