Posts Tagged ‘arctic’

Still waiting


In a quarter of a century something ‘could be’ happening – and that’s their most optimistic (?) guess. Others say a whole century, or more. Somewhat underwhelming, given that we’ve already gone past several years that were touted by alarmists as ones that could see the end of Arctic summer sea ice. The claim of a supposed correlation between the trace gas carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature looks to be fading fast if this is the best/worst they can come up with, effectively negating endless media stories about ‘the rapidly warming Arctic’.

It’s hard to imagine the Arctic without sea ice, says Phys.org.

But according to a new study by UCLA climate scientists, human-caused climate change is on track to make the Arctic Ocean functionally ice-free for part of each year starting sometime between 2044 and 2067.

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Credit: weather.com


By what known physics could a few molecules of carbon dioxide upset the jet stream? A meteorologist is not impressed by such claims.

By Chris Martz | November 9, 2019
INTRODUCTION Just when wildfires weren’t enough, we now have people blaming cold weather on a warming climate, which seems quite contradictory.

In light of the Arctic outbreak in forecast this coming week, people like Phil Plait (who has since blocked me) took to Twitter (Figure 1) to claim that man-made climate change is causing frigid, Arctic air to be displaced south into the United States, Europe, and Asia.

His argument, which is supported by some climate scientists, suggests that man-made global warming causes the polar jet stream to destabilize causing it to become wavy rather than zonal, sending Arctic air southward into the mid-latitude regions.

He also stated that without global warming, the polar air would stay near the north pole.

Both of these claims are exactly backwards from reality and are not supported by weather dynamics, the global warming theory, or statistical observations in long-term temperature data.

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Credit: ecologyway.info


Clearly Russia, China and India expect oil consumption to play a big part in their futures, even if some other countries claim to think otherwise due to their ill-conceived drive to demonise man-made carbon dioxide. Potential protesters may be aware that Russia tends to apply a robust response to any attempt to interfere with its commercial activities.

With the help of a tax relief package, Russia’s largest oil producer is preparing to dive into a $157 billion Arctic oil project, reports OilPrice.com.

Reuters quoted Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin as announcing the price tag of the Vostok Oil project to media last week, adding that the Kremlin had already agreed on a tax relief package that would help with the Arctic oil and gas push.

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Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca]


This time researchers plan to get stuck on purpose, unlike several earlier notoriously over-ambitious climate-themed ship fiascos in the supposedly ‘vanishing’ polar sea ice in recent years, like this one. With such a massive budget this time, what could possibly go wrong? (That’s rhetorical of course.)

It’s being described as the biggest Arctic science expedition of all time, says BBC News.

The German Research Vessel Polarstern is about to head for the far north where it intends to drift in the sea-ice for an entire year.

Hundreds of scientists will visit the ship in that time to use it as a base from which to study the climate.

The MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) project is expected to cost about €130m (£120m/$150m).

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Wild geese take climate action

Posted: September 5, 2019 by oldbrew in climate, Natural Variation, research
Tags: ,

Image credit: Jasper Koster / Phys.org


But is there a twist to this tale? From the research article we learn this:
‘The geese spend the winter and spring on the Solway Firth, United Kingdom. They utilize areas in Norway for spring staging, and breed on the high‐arctic archipelago of Svalbard (Figure 1; Owen & Black, 1999). Recently, a small but increasing number of barnacle geese spend the pre‐migratory period on the Solway before heading directly towards Svalbard (LG, unpublished), which was disregarded in the current study due to a lack of quantitative data.’

Why are they now – apparently at least – staying longer on the Solway (south coast of Scotland) in the spring and bypassing their ‘spring stage’ in Norway? As Dutch researchers asked two years ago: Can barnacle geese predict the climate?
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Migratory animals are actively adjusting their traditions to climate change, new research has found.

An international team of researchers from the University of St. Andrews, with Norwegian, Dutch and British colleagues, found that barnacle geese have shifted their migratory route within the last 25 years, reports Phys.org.

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But not as shockingly thick as those who claim the sea ice is all melting rapidly and assorted drastic measures must be taken, no expense spared.

polarbearscience

In late June, one of the most powerful icebreakers in the world encountered such extraordinarily thick ice on-route to the North Pole (with a polar bear specialist and deep-pocketed, Attenborough-class tourists onboard) that it took a day and a half longer than expected to get there. A few weeks later, in mid-July, a Norwegian icebreaker also bound for the North Pole (with scientific researchers on board) was forced to turn back north of Svalbard when it unexpectedly encountered impenetrable pack ice.

Franz Josef Land polar bear 2019 no date_Photo by Michael Hambrey_smA polar bear on hummocked sea ice in Franz Josef Land. Photo by Michael Hambrey, date not specified but estimated based on tour dates to be 22 or 23 June 2019.

Apparently, the ice charts the Norwegian captain consulted showed first year ice – ice that formed the previous fall, defined as less than 2 m thick (6.6 ft) – which is often much broken…

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In short: polar bear scares by climate alarm propaganda merchants are busted.

polarbearscience

Straight from the horse’s mouth: all polar bear females tagged by researchers around Churchill in Western Hudson Bay last year were still on the ice as of 25 June. With plenty of ice still remaining over the bay, spring breakup will be no earlier this year than it has been since 1999. Contrary to predictions of ever-declining ice cover, the lack of a trend in sea ice breakup dates for Western Hudson Bay is now twenty years long (a hiatus, if you will) and yet these bears are repeatedly claimed to have been seriously harmed in recent years by a loss of sea ice.

Derocher 2019 WHB collared females 25 June all bears still on the ice

In fact, WH bears have faced relatively few ‘early’ years of sea ice breakup and breakup has never come before the 15th of June. The earliest recent spring breakup date did not come in 2012 – when sea ice hit a summer record low – but…

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From the ‘observing tips’: ‘Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the sun has dipped below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.’

Spaceweather.com

May 31, 2019: A huge blue cloud of frosted meteor smoke is pinwheeling around the Arctic Circle. NASA’s AIM spacecraft spotted its formation on May 20th, and it has since circled the North Pole one and a half times, expanding in size more than 200-fold.

“These are noctilucent clouds,” says Cora Randall of the AIM science team at the University of Colorado. “And they are going strong.”

nlc_anim_strip

Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) in May are nothing unusual. They form every year around this time when the first wisps of summertime water vapor rise to the top of Earth’s atmosphere. Molecules of H2O adhere to specks of meteor smoke, forming ice crystals 80 km above Earth’s surface. When sunbeams hit those crystals, they glow electric-blue.

But these NLCs are different. They’re unusually strong and congregated in a coherent spinning mass, instead of spreading as usual all across the polar cap.

“This…

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Seems like the ‘carbon dioxide control knob’ has gone wonky. Alarmists must wonder: how can that be?
H/T CFACT

It appears that Iceland won’t have to be renamed Tepidlandia anytime soon, says Larry Bell.

According to researchers at the University of Iceland, each of the country’s glaciers will expand this year for the first time in the past 25 years.

As reported in Electroverse, the Hofsjökull, Langjökull, Mýrdalsjökull, and Vatnajökull glaciers have expanded over the last twelve months, from autumn to autumn, “With Mýrdalsjökull showing a really significant addition of ice this year.”

These are the largest glaciers in Iceland: Hofsjökull is third largest after Vatnajökull and Langjökull, while Mýrdalsjökull is the country’s fourth largest ice cap.

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Jakobshavn glacier, West Greenland [image credit: Wikipedia]


Even the climate alarm oriented BBC has finally had to admit the inconvenient truth about Greenland’s largest glacier. Instead of dropping in height by 20m. a year, it’s now thickening by 20m. a year. This isn’t supposed to happen when one of the stock phrases of the fearmongering media is ‘the rapidly melting Arctic’. Of course logic says that since glaciers can grow naturally they can also retreat naturally, despite attempts to blame humans.

European satellites have detailed the abrupt change in behaviour of one of Greenland’s most important glaciers, says BBC News.

In the 2000s, Jakobshavn Isbrae was the fastest flowing ice stream on the island, travelling at 17km a year.

As it sped to the ocean, its front end also retreated and thinned, dropping in height by as much as 20m year.

But now it’s all change. Jakobshavn is travelling much more slowly, and its trunk has even begun to thicken and lengthen.

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Days to go before his climate propaganda show on BBC TV and already his penchant for suspect alarmist stories has been exposed. Maybe he should stick to what he knows best.

Update – see: ‘Our Planet’ film crew is still lying about walrus cliff deaths: here’s how we know – by Dr. Susan Crockford (posted 14th April 2019)

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 Our Planet has showcased hundreds of walruses falling off a 260ft cliff to a slow, agonising death in heartbreaking scenes

Our Planet has showcased hundreds of walruses falling off a 260ft cliff to a slow, agonising death in heartbreaking scenes

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/8800576/netflix-david-attenborough-our-planet-walrus-heartbreaking/

Last week, the new Netflix series, Our Planet, was launched with great fanfare. Narrated by David Attenborough, however, one segment made headlines around the world, showcasing hundreds of walruses falling off a 260ft cliff to a slow, agonising death in heartbreaking scenes.

Narrating the disturbing scene in the second episode, Attenborough began:

But the story quickly began to unravel.

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Jakobshavn glacier, West Greenland [image credit: Wikipedia]


Without jumping to hasty conclusions, this is an interesting development not predicted by the IPCC’s supposed experts. Natural ocean/climate oscillations are implicated. Against assumptions, rising carbon dioxide levels cannot explain these latest observations.

A new NASA study finds a major Greenland glacier that was one of the fastest shrinking ice and snow masses on Earth is growing again, reports The GWPF.

The scientists were so shocked to find the change, Khazendar said: “At first we didn’t believe it.

“We had pretty much assumed that Jakobshavn would just keep going on as it had over the last 20 years.”

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Latest buzz in Arctic tourism is a floating city

Posted: January 25, 2019 by oldbrew in innovation, News, sea ice, Travel
Tags:

Arctic Ocean


Sounds like a cruise ship that doesn’t go anywhere.

Developers in Singapore intend to ship thousands of Asians to a tourism machine in Arctic waters, reports the Barents Observer.

«People want to visit new places and experience something different,» says Aziz Merchant. He is Executive Director of the Keppel Offshore & Marine Technology Centre, a unit under the powerful Keppel Group, and participated in this week’s Arctic Frontiers in Tromsø, Norway.

«From the Asian perspective, tourists want new challenges, they want to explore areas that has not been explored before. Like with space tourism,» Merchant said in an address delivered at the conference.

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Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca]


Yes, it does say ‘slows’. There’s some rather convoluted logic about the present and future of Arctic sea ice going on here. Good luck to readers who think they can unravel it. But NASA does have to concede there’s a winter negative feedback going on, while doing its best to downplay possible consequences so as to keep the usual warming obsessions afloat.

New NASA research has found that increases in the rate at which Arctic sea ice grows in the winter may have partially slowed down the decline of the Arctic sea ice cover.

As temperatures in the Arctic have warmed at double the pace of the rest of the planet, the expanse of frozen seawater that blankets the Arctic Ocean and neighboring seas has shrunk and thinned over the past three decades.

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Northwest Passage routes [image credit: NASA @ Wikipedia]


Probably not, but this report loses some credibility and misleads readers when it claims: ‘But in 2014 the Nunavik became the first cargo ship to traverse the [Northwest] passage unescorted when it delivered nickel from the Canadian province of Quebec to China.’ It fails to mention the obviously important fact that Nunavik is an icebreaking bulk carrier.

Wikipedia says: ‘She is strengthened for navigation in ice according to the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Polar Class 4, which allows year-round operation in thick first-year ice which may include old ice inclusions. Furthermore, she fulfills the requirements for ice class ICE-15 by Det Norske Veritas.’ So hardly the run-of-the-mill cargo ship that the BBC pretends it is.

Having tried to talk up the prospects of opening up this sea route, a note of caution is sounded: ‘However, some Arctic experts are not convinced that the Northwest Passage will ever be a busy commercial trade route.’ As well as unpredictable sea ice, unfavourable geography and disputed territorial claims are among the issues.

Climate change is increasingly opening up the Northwest Passage, an Arctic sea route north of the Canadian mainland, says the BBC.

Could it herald an era of more cargo shipping around the top of the world?

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Rinks Glacier, West Greenland
[image credit: NSIDC]


NASA says the role of glacier ‘flour’ on climate (if any) remains a mystery.

NASA satellites spotted a massive dust storm over Greenland made up of “glacier flour,” reports LiveScience.

If you’re in Greenland and a strange cloud darkens the sky, that cloud might be made up of something scientists call “glacier flour.”

Researchers have written and speculated about glacier-flour dust storms in Greenland for a long time, according to NASA.

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Rinks Glacier, West Greenland
[image credit: NSIDC]


However this is interpreted, ‘sixth highest on record’ doesn’t quite support the ‘rapid melting’ story so beloved of man-made climate alarm believers. It looks a lot more like natural variability, as the report suggests.

It’s time for the Greenland ice sheet’s annual health report, brought to you by scientists from the Danish Meteorological Institute and Polar Portal.

The end of August traditionally marks the end of the melt season for the Greenland ice sheet as it shifts from mostly melting to mostly gaining snow, says ScienceNordic.

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Topographic map of Greenland


Such predictions are usually wrong anyway, the real question being the degree of ‘wrong-ness’ compared to the actual data. The expected (by climate models) linear progression of global temperatures has fizzled out – inasmuch as it ever existed – since the ‘pause’, apart from a recent El Niño blip. Solar cycle activity is also declining compared to other recent cycles..

Current climate change predictions in the UK and parts of Europe may be inaccurate, a study conducted by researchers from the University of Lincoln, UK, and the University of Liège, Belgium, suggests.

Existing computer model simulations have failed to properly include air pressure changes that have occured in the Greenland region throughout the past 30 years, says The GWPF.

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With about the same minimum Arctic sea ice extent this season as 2008 and 2010, persistent claims of ‘rapid decline’ are looking more than threadbare, and polar bears don’t seem too bothered either, judging by the numbers. Climate scare merchants may have to look elsewhere to try and generate a headline.

polarbearscience

We’ve hit the seasonal Arctic sea ice minimum for this year, called this morning by US NSIDC for 19th and 23rd of Septmeber: 4.59 mkm2, the same extent as 2008 and 2010. This is not a “ho-hum” year for polar bears: it means that since 2007, they have triumphed through 10 or 11 years1 with summer ice coverage below 5.0 mkm2 —  levels that in 2007were expected to cause catastrophic declines in numbers.

polar-bear-on-thin-ice_21-aug-2009_patrick-kelley-us-coast-guard.jpg

Summer sea ice below 5.0 mkm2 were not expected to occur until about 2050, according to 2005/2006 sea ice models and polar bear specialists at the US Geological Survey (USGS). Polar bear survival models predicted 2/3 of the world’s polar bears would disappear when ice levels reached this threshold for 8 out of 10 years (Amstrup et al. 2007, 2008; Hunter 2007) but polar bears have been more resilientthan expected (Crockford 2017, 2018; Crockford…

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Screenshot from NASA video


The reporter here is obviously sold on endless warming of planet Earth, but ignoring the propaganda, there are some technical details of the mission which is due to last three years but could be extended up to ten. NASA says: ‘The ICESat-2 laser will pulse 10,000 times a second; each pulse will release about 20 trillion photons. Only about a dozen photons hit Earth’s surface and return to the satellite.’

NASA is poised to launch Saturday its most advanced space laser ever, ICESat-2, a $1 billion dollar mission to reveal the depths of the Earth’s melting ice as the climate warms, says Phys.org.

The half-ton satellite, about the size of a smart-car, is scheduled to blast off atop a Delta II rocket on September 15 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

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