We must end the Net Zero delusion before it’s too late – Telegraph

Enough of the pretence, says the paper. It’s only arguing about methods of implementation e.g. targets, but better than nothing. The central plan is a drag on the whole country in the name of a climate theory that can’t be shown to be valid, using climate models that can’t even model the past or present with the necessary accuracy.
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Political obituaries will not be kind to Theresa May, says The Telegraph.

But there is one unwritten law of modern British politics the former prime minister understood: you can be wrong on climate change, provided you are wrong in the right way.

Whisper that net zero by 2050 will have deleterious social and economic costs, and accusations of “denialism” will swiftly follow.

Yet warn that the “house is on fire” and the end time is at hand, and you’ll probably be given a book deal.

An increase in the number of extreme cold days in North China during 2003–2012, research finds

The researchers wrestle with the non-correlation of extreme winter weather events and the monotonic increase in CO2 levels, offering a verdict of ‘probable’ natural variation. They try to support IPCC climate assertions, but the article keeps saying ‘however’. One of the study’s authors says: “This is still a challenging issue that needs further exploration to quantify the relative contributions of natural variability and human activity to regional extreme events.”
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A recent study by researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, presents robust interdecadal changes in the number of extreme cold days in winter over North China during 1989–2021, and the findings have been published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, says EurekAlert.

Specifically, the number of extreme cold days increased around the year 2003 and then decreased around the year 2013, with a value of 8.7 days per year during 1989–2002, 13.5 during 2003–2012, and 6.6 during 2013–2021.

During 2003–2012, the Siberian–Ural High strengthened and the polar jet stream weakened, which favored frequent cold air intrusion into North China, inducing more extreme cold days. In addition, the intensity of extreme cold days in North China showed no significant difference in the three periods.

Two million animals dead as extreme winter weather hits Mongolia

The UN as usual blames ‘climate change’ (no definition available) which is synonymous with global warming to a lot of people. Snowfall in the country is reported as the heaviest since 1975.
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Bayanmunkh Sum: More than two million animals have died in Mongolia so far this winter, a government official said Monday, as the country endures extreme cold and snow, reports Gulf News.

The landlocked country is no stranger to severe weather from December to March, when temperatures plummet as low as minus 50 degrees Celsius (minus 58 Fahrenheit) in some areas.

But this winter has been more severe than usual, with lower than normal temperatures and very heavy snowfall, the United Nations said in a recent report.

As of Monday, 2.1 million head of livestock had died from starvation and exhaustion, Gantulga Batsaikhan of the country’s agriculture ministry said.

Mongolia had 64.7 million such animals, including sheep, goats, horses and cows, at the end of 2023, official statistics show.

The extreme weather is known as “dzud” and typically results in the deaths of huge numbers of livestock.

The United Nations said climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of dzuds.

Mongolia has experienced six dzuds in the past decade, including the winter of 2022-23 when 4.4 million head of livestock perished.

This year’s dzud has been exacerbated by a summer drought that prevented animals from building up enough fatty stores to survive the harsh winter.

‘Praying for warmer weather’
Seventy percent of Mongolia is experiencing “dzud or near dzud” conditions, the UN said.

That compares with 17 percent of the country at the same time in 2023.
. . .
Snowfall this year – the heaviest since 1975 – has compounded herders’ woes, trapping them in colder areas and making them unable to buy food and hay for their animals from the nearby towns.

Full report here.
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Image: Another tough winter for Mongolian livestock [credit: eurasianet.org]

Is a new Interactive Climate Atlas ‘a game changer for policymakers’ – or just a game?

Delving into the technical section (see below), this puzzling statement appeared:
‘One of the main innovations of the dataset is its inclusion of [a named] dataset, which provides regional climate projections covering the land components of the globe by combining two regional climate models and six general circulation models, which were selected to span the widest possible range of uncertainty.’ — Another section is headed ‘Quality assured data’ but surely models with a wide range of uncertainty must include some which are more uncertain, aka inaccurate, than others. What purpose does that serve for policymakers?
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The Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas, launched by the Copernicus Climate Change Service on 20 February, is set to be an important new resource for policymakers looking to formulate effective climate policy and for other users needing to visualise and analyse climate change information, says the European Commission.
. . .
Let’s get technical
So, how does the Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas work? The gridded monthly dataset used for the Atlas integrates information from several climatic observational, reanalysis and projection datasets. The data is harmonised across the different datasets and catalogues to ensure standard common definitions and units for each of the variables.

One of the main innovations of the dataset is its inclusion of the CORDEX-CORE dataset, which provides regional climate projections covering the land components of the globe by combining two regional climate models and six general circulation models, which were selected to span the widest possible range of uncertainty. Due to its global continental coverage and higher resolution, this is a strategic dataset for the C3S Atlas, making it possible to analyse climate change in even higher resolution, such as for megacities around the world, for example.

Full article — Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas: a game changer for policymakers.

When the global climate has the hiccups – ‘repeated rapid increases in temperature’

Promoters of a current ‘climate crisis’ often call modern warming and/or events within it, ‘unprecedented’. However, compared to events like this: “A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life” [explains Prof.], not much is presently going on. Climate variability can happen in different ways, and repeat over long timescales.
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In recent geological history, the so-called Quaternary period, there have been repeated ice ages and warm periods, says Science Daily.

Researchers are able to determine past climate variability from the composition of climate records. In the case of the last glacial period 100,000 years ago, ice cores from Greenland in particular provide researchers with detailed data.

For example, Greenland ice cores show that there were repeated rapid increases in temperature.

“We are talking about increases of 5 to 10 degrees within 30 to 40 years on average in the case of Europe. A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life,” explains Prof. Dominik Fleitmann, Professor of Quaternary Geology at the University of Basel.

He calls the phenomena “climate hiccups.”

These Dansgaard-Oeschger events are well documented for the last glacial period, but the climate records from Greenland only cover the last 120,000 years.

It was therefore previously unknown whether these Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period 135,000 to 190,000 years ago.

Frederick Held, a PhD candidate in Fleitmann’s research group, was able to show that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period using isotopic measurements on stalagmites.

He is the lead author of the study which was published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

The North Atlantic as the source of change

The stalagmites examined originate from the Sofular Cave in Turkey, which is located in a region that is very sensitive to climate change.

The researchers therefore refer to it as a key region, as it is influenced by the winds of the North Atlantic and the Black Sea is just a few kilometers away.

“We used the isotopic composition in the stalagmites to determine the moisture sources from which they are formed — the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic,” explains Frederick Held.

For the first time, the evaluations carried out on the stalagmites from the Sofular Cave have proven that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period.

“It was previously unknown whether these relatively brief temperature events actually happened in earlier glacial periods,” states Held.

However, they occurred less frequently in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one: “The temperature peaks are twice as far apart from one another, meaning there were longer cold phases between them.”

These temperature fluctuations originate in the North Atlantic, as the circulation of the ocean is a global conveyor belt for heat and can sometimes be stronger and sometimes weaker.

“For example, the circulation affects the exchange of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean, which, in turn, impacts the balance of heat in the Northern Hemisphere and air flows and rainfall,” explains Held.

He states that weakened circulation also reduces the quantity of CO2 which the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere.

These ocean currents were different in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one, which explains the different intervals between the Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

This shows that not all glacial periods are the same and not all warm periods are the same.
. . .
The geologist also hopes to clarify any outstanding questions by means of additional analyses. “For example, we do not yet know whether the increases in temperature were periodic or stochastic, in other words random.”

Full article here.

Image: Greenland ice core [credit: K. Makinson @ Wikipedia]

UK Navy could make climate change courses compulsory

Who would bet against the climate instruction they offer being biased towards the UN/IPCC alarmist view? The new target will be net zero, and the new enemy will be climate change.
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The Royal Navy is considering introducing compulsory climate change courses for all sailors, The Telegraph can reveal.

A leaked briefing paper suggests that all Navy personnel could be forced to attend online training sessions about the impact of climate change on defence.

“While this course is not yet mandated, it does provide a comprehensive overview on the science behind climate change and most importantly its relevance to defence,” the paper reads.

Temperatures are rising, but soil is getting wetter, confounding climate theorists

One overlooked factor was the CO2 fertilization effect in plant photosynthesis. The researchers found that “it’s virtually impossible to predict soil moisture in the coming decades”, contrary to some alarmist notions about future droughts.
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Soil moisture can determine how quickly a wildfire spreads, how fast a hill turns into a mudslide and, perhaps most importantly, how productive our food systems are, says Eurekalert.

As temperatures rise due to human-caused climate change [Talkshop comment – evidence-free assertion of cause], some researchers are concerned that soils will dry.

However, between 2011 to 2020, soil moisture increased across 57% of the United States during summer, the warmest time of year.

Why did soil get wetter even as the planet got hotter?

UN bidding starts in the $trillions for COP 29 climate finance

Crazy world of climate finance [image credit: renewableenergyfocus.com]

A UN official claims there’s a ‘need to collectively raise and direct $2.4 trillion annually for climate mitigation’. Billions are too small to mention any more, when trying to ‘avoid devastating impacts of climate change’ (says this article). Since climate models aren’t even much good at replicating reality, and various dire predictions to date have failed, what basis is there for this proposed level of spending?
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The UN’s next climate summit will be an “enabling COP,” focused on drastically scaling up climate finance and making bold emissions reduction commitments, says Axios.

Why it matters: Top UN climate official Simon Stiell delivered a speech this morning in Baku, Azerbaijan, envisioning what will happen if the world meets the climate challenge and avoids devastating impacts of climate change.

Zoom in: The speech, delivered at ADA University, counters perceptions in some parts of the climate community that Baku will involve lower stakes and more technical work than COP28 did in Dubai.

EU’s new fiscal rules too strict for ‘fight’ against climate change? Churchill analogy invoked

The Greens claimed the new rules are ‘suicidal’ (which could also be said of the proposed spending plans), and imagined bean counters telling Churchill to give up because his World War costs were unaffordable. Climate hysteria rumbles on in its own world.
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The new EU rules for national debts and deficit would hamper member states’ ability to make the public investments needed to effectively combat climate change, a new study commissioned by the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament found.

Speaking at a press briefing on Tuesday (30 January), Philippe Lamberts, co-president of the Greens/EFA group, stressed that the fiscal rules currently being negotiated in ‘trilogue’ discussions between the European Commission, Parliament, and Council would render it “legally impossible” for the bloc to achieve its goal of full decarbonisation by 2050, reports Euractiv.

Echoing earlier comments, he accused the EU of being run by “religious fundamentalists” following “suicidal” policies.

Researchers probe a conundrum: If the world is warming, why are our winters getting colder?

Gulf Stream flows

Some recent cold weather events are puzzling to global warming researchers, in terms of climate model expectations. Especially so for the ‘Center for Irreversible Climate Change’ in South Korea. Temporary natural variation seems to be the conclusion. What else could they say without casting doubt on human-caused warming theories?
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If the world is warming, why are our winters getting colder?

Indeed, East Asia and North America have experienced frequent extreme weather events since the 2000s that defy average climate change projections, says Phys.org.

Many experts have blamed Arctic warming and a weakening jet stream due to declining Arctic sea ice, but climate model experiments have not adequately demonstrated their validity.

The massive power outage in Texas in February 2021 was caused by an unusual cold snap, and climate models are needed to accurately predict the risk of extreme weather events in order to prevent massive socioeconomic damage.

Sky News called out on air for arguing ‘both sides’ on climate change

Sceptic of human-caused climate disturbance theories painted as a right-wing pantomime villain by ‘how dare they’ activist type. Seeking as usual to avoid true debate, e.g. on the repeated failure of alarmist predictions, by resorting to irrelevant caricatures. The fact Sky News invited a sceptic at all suggests awareness that ignoring them has not worked, and the public is by no means all on board with media propaganda.
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SKY News has been criticised for arguing “both sides” on climate change after the Met Office said 2023 had been the second warmest year for the UK since records began in 1884, reports The National (Scotland).

In a segment on the news, presenter Kay Burley spoke to writer James Woudhuysen and activist Zoe Cohen from Just Stop Oil about the issue.

Cohen used her time on air to rip into bosses at Sky for platforming Woudhuysen, who questioned whether the statistics from the Met Office were accurate, claiming they were “very difficult to believe”.

The Sahara Desert used to be a green savannah : Research explains why – it’s a climate cycle

Sahara desert from space [image credit: NASA]

We’re informed that ‘scientists have identified more than 230 of these greenings occurring about every 21,000 years over the past eight million years.’ (Ice ages may account for the numerical shortfall). Climate models aren't able to simulate these greenings, or at least not their magnitude. The period they identify is the combined precession cycle, i.e. the beat period of the tropical and anomalistic orbits (years) of the Earth (when the difference between the number of each reaches 1). Inevitably it’s about the energy received from the Sun.
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Algeria’s Tassili N’Ajjer plateau is Africa’s largest national park, says The Conversation (via Phys.org).

Among its vast sandstone formations is perhaps the world’s largest art museum. Over 15,000 etchings and paintings are exhibited there, some as much as 11,000 years old according to scientific dating techniques, representing a unique ethnological and climatological record of the region.

Curiously, however, these images do not depict the arid, barren landscape that is present in the Tassili N’Ajjer today.

Nobel Laureate Dr. John Clauser: Climate Models Miss Key Variable – Clouds

Paraphrasing a well-known misquote (‘I thought it sounded so good that I never bothered to deny it’): “A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” Why clouds make climate, briefly explained in layman’s terms.
[Start the video at 5 mins. or watch the clip here].
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“This is clearly the most important, the controlling mechanism for the earth’s temperature & climate. And it dwarfs the effect of CO2 & methane.”

Nobel prize winner John Clauser says the complexities of clouds and variations in cloud cover have been largely ignored in climate models—with major implications.

He argues there is no climate emergency, says Climate Depot.

600 years of tree rings reveal climate variability in California, droughts and floods more severe and longer lasting than in the modern record

California’s San Joaquin Valley and Central Valley [image credit: Mark Miller @ Wikipedia]

The region studied has a naturally varying climate, as do most regions of the world. One minute the article says the last few centuries there had more weather extremes than now, the next it implies the future could or will be like that again or worse, due to being ‘compounded’ by the catch-all *climate change*. File under ‘unconvincing’?
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The San Joaquin Valley in California has experienced vast variability in climate extremes, with droughts and floods that were more severe and lasted longer than what has been seen in the modern record, according to a new study of 600 years of tree rings from the valley, says Eurekalert.

The researchers used the tree rings to reconstruct plausible daily records of weather and streamflow scenarios during the 600-year period.

This new approach, combining paleo information with synthetic weather generation, may help policymakers and scientists better understand – and anticipate – California’s flood and drought risks and how they will be compounded by climate change. [Talkshop comment – unsupported assertion].

The group’s paper is published in Earth’s Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

Why the Dutch election result spells trouble for Europe’s climate efforts

Dutch wind turbines

Climate mythology on the back foot. Some people at least are not keen on being frogmarched into costly and disruptive ‘net zero’ energy policies for more pain than gain, while having their reliability of supply reduced and farmers demonised.
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The far-right party that surged to victory in Wednesday’s Dutch election wants to ditch all efforts to stop climate change, says Politico.

About a quarter of Dutch voters backed Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV), whose platform includes exiting the Paris climate accord, dismantling domestic green legislation, and scrapping measures to reduce planet-warming emissions.

While right-wing politicians from Scandinavia to Italy have won big over the past year, this is the first time a party openly calling for an end to the green transition has won a national election in the European Union.

Planet racing toward ‘dead-end 3C temperature rise’, UN chief wails

It’s November again, so time to bring out the climate doomster’s crystal ball and claim once more to know how all global weather systems will behave decades into the future, unless…blah blah. The Climate Obsessives Powwow number 28 will lap up the melodrama (‘racing’?) even if others are less, or not at all, impressed. The notion of one global temperature is just a gimmick.
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Plans to stop emitting greenhouse gases in order to limit global warming are nowhere near enough to avert dangerous climate change, a United Nations body has warned.

In its annual Emissions Gap report, the UN Environment Programme says the climate action plans of governments will fail to limit the global temperature to under 1.5-2C this century, reports Sky News.

That limit was the goal of the landmark Paris Agreement, struck in 2015, when almost 200 countries agreed limiting global warming was necessary to avoid extremely destructive impacts.

Current pledges put the world on track for a 2.5-2.9C of global warming, UNEP said.

Its executive director Inger Andersen told Sky News: “None of these scenarios are acceptable to many, many people who live in low-lying areas, in coastal communities in fire hazard areas or in drought prone areas or flood prone areas.

“So we really do need to step up.”

At 3C of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.

“Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise,” said UN secretary general Antonio Guterres.

“The emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon.”

Full report here.

New research suggests plants might be able to absorb more CO2 from human activities than previously expected

Biology has been underestimated. Anything that relies on photosynthesis just takes whatever CO2 molecules it can get for its needs, regardless of current climate theories.
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New research published in Science Advances paints an uncharacteristically upbeat picture for the planet, says Phys.org.

This is because more realistic ecological modeling suggests the world’s plants may be able to take up more atmospheric CO2 from human activities than previously predicted.

Despite this headline finding, the environmental scientists behind the research are quick to underline that this should in no way be taken to mean the world’s governments can take their foot off the brake in their obligations to reduce carbon emissions as fast as possible. [Talkshop comment – smell the fear of losing funding].

Simply planting more trees and protecting existing vegetation is not a golden-bullet solution but the research does underline the multiple benefits to conserving such vegetation.

“Plants take up a substantial amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year, thereby slowing down the detrimental effects of climate change, but the extent to which they will continue this CO2 uptake into the future has been uncertain,” explains Dr. Jürgen Knauer, who headed the research team led by the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment at Western Sydney University.

“What we found is that a well-established climate model that is used to feed into global climate predictions made by the likes of the IPCC predicts stronger and sustained carbon uptake until the end of the 21st century when it accounts for the impact of some critical physiological processes that govern how plants conduct photosynthesis.

“We accounted for aspects like how efficiently carbon dioxide can move through the interior of the leaf, how plants adjust to changes in temperatures, and how plants most economically distribute nutrients in their canopy. These are three really important mechanisms that affect a plant’s ability to ‘fix’ carbon, yet they are commonly ignored in most global models” said Dr. Knauer.

Photosynthesis is the scientific term for the process in which plants convert—or “fix”—CO2 into the sugars they use for growth and metabolism. This carbon fixing serves as a natural climate change mitigator by reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere; it is this increased uptake of CO2 by vegetation that is the primary driver of an increasing land carbon sink reported over the last few decades.
. . .
Silvia Caldararu, Assistant Professor in Trinity’s School of Natural Sciences, was involved in the study. Contextualizing the findings and their relevance, she said, “Because the majority of terrestrial biosphere models used to assess the global carbon sink are located at the lower end of this complexity range, accounting only partially for these mechanisms or ignoring them altogether, it is likely that we are currently underestimating climate change effects on vegetation as well as its resilience to changes in climate.

“We often think about climate models as being all about physics, but biology plays a huge role and it is something that we really need to account for.”

Full article here.

US Watchdog Has Grim Winter Warning: There May Be Blackouts

If it’s climate obsession versus reality in US power supplies, there can only be one winner. Strong opposition to new gas pipelines plus increasing reliance on intermittent renewables can only end badly for consumers of power.
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As much as two-thirds of the United States could experience blackouts in peak winter weather this and next year, the North American Reliability Corp has warned.

These warnings have become something of a routine for the regulatory agency lately, says OilPrice.com.

Earlier this year, NERC issued a blackout warning for some parts of the U.S. over the summer, citing extreme temperatures.

Drought saps the Panama Canal, disrupting global trade – can El Niño already be a factor?

Ship passing through the new Agua Clara Locks, Panama Canal [image credit: Mariordo @ Wikipedia]

Having stated water levels in the canal have been a problem for a number of years, blaming the recently arrived El Niño seems a bit strange, and the last significant one ended in 2016. One expert is quoted saying it could be a source of drought, which implies some uncertainty. Using seawater to top up the canal isn’t an option for ecological reasons. Every vessel passage uses a lot of water (200 million litres per ship as an average), and capacity was doubled in 2016.
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For over a century, the Panama Canal has provided a convenient way for ships to move between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, helping to speed up international trade, says the Houston Herald.

But a drought has left the canal without enough water, which is used to raise and lower ships, forcing officials to slash the number of vessels they allow through.

That has created expensive headaches for shipping companies and raised difficult questions about water use in Panama. The passage of one ship is estimated to consume as much water as half a million Panamanians use in one day.

Climate’s ‘Catch-22’: Cutting air pollution heats up the planet — more confusion ahead?

Chinese smog
[image credit: BBC]

A choice between overheating and lung damage doesn’t appeal much, giving would-be climate controllers a new conundrum for their models to grapple with. Another excuse to wheel out catastrophe fears again.
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Air pollution, a global scourge that kills millions of people a year, is shielding us from the full force of the sun, says Euractiv.

Getting rid of it will accelerate climate change. That’s the unpalatable conclusion reached by scientists poring over the results of China’s decade-long and highly effective “war on pollution”, according to six leading climate experts.

The drive to banish pollution, caused mainly by sulphur dioxide (SO2) spewed from coal plants, has cut SO2 emissions by close to 90% and saved hundreds of thousands of lives, Chinese official data and health studies show.