Arctic Ice Already Exceeds Six Wadhams

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Attention COP26 attendees! Please refrain from flogging the dead horse of terminal Arctic sea ice decline.

Science Matters

The images above come from MASIE showing ice extents starting day 266, the lowest daily extent in 2021. Over the last 18 days, Arctic ice has grown by 1 Wadham (1M km2) to now exceed 6 Wadhams, about 276k km2 greater than the 14-year average for day 284. At the bottom center Barents Sea ice reaches out to Iceland.  Svalbard bottom right becomes encircled by ice.  East Siberian Sea top right has ice connecting to the shore. Top center Beaufort and Chukchi seas are also adding ice rapidly.

The ice recovery since September minimum is shown in the graph below.

Day 260 was the 14 year average annual daily minimum at 4.39m km2. MASIE 2021 was 776k km2 above average, and SII was 427k km2 lower than MASIE.  Note that 2007, 2019 and 2020 weere much lower than average throughout the period. SII is again tracking MASIE since day 274.

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Environment Agency’s alarmist climate report is partly based on an obsolete climate scenario

An obvious problem with the new Environment Agency report reportis its use of climate scenario RCP8.5, which has been widely discredited as unrealistic, impossible and so on. Surely that ought to render any related comments unsuitable as advice to a government. EA report extracts follow.
Air temperature and precipitation: We used RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to represent climate scenarios that meet or exceed global warming +2°C and +4°C above pre-industrial by 2100.
Sea level rise: For our FCERM schemes we assess a range from the 70th to the 95th percentile of UKCP18 RCP8.5.
River flows: They are relative to a 1981-200 baseline and based on the 50th percentile of UKCP18 RCP8.5, which is consistent with at least a +4°C warming scenario by the end of the century.
Future weather: The projected values for future hot weather and wet weather are taken from UKCP Local (2.2 km) (Met Office, 2019), which complements the UKCP18 projections with data at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous climate projections, giving us greater detail on the 52 of 90 frequency and intensity of extreme weather. These projections are only available for a RCP8.5
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The Environment Agency has issued a stark warning on climate change: “Adapt or die”, says ITV News.

In a new report the Government body has preparations need to be made for the inevitable effects of climate change such as more flooding, an increased number of droughts and rising sea levels.

EU countries struggle to agree approach to COP26 climate talks

EU countries can’t agree their best rate of economic decline due to expensive and damaging so-called climate policies that won’t have any measurable effect of the type they seek. Have they considered the possibility that there is no such rate?
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European Union countries are struggling to agree their negotiating position for the COP26 climate change conference, with rifts emerging over timeframes for emissions-cutting pledges, according to officials and documents seen by Reuters, says Euractiv.

The EU is drafting its position ahead of the November COP26 talks, where countries will attempt to finish the technical rules to put the Paris Agreement into effect.

One issue they will try to settle is whether countries’ climate targets under the 2015 accord should follow a “common timeframe”.

COP26: Poorest countries fear not reaching UK for climate summit due to Covid rules

If the Queen, the Pope, or the US President – all classed as vulnerable due to their age – get Covid in Glasgow, climate won’t get a look-in.
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The world’s poorest countries say they are worried about getting to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in November, reports BBC News.

Twenty are on the UK’s Covid red list – meaning hotel quarantine for arrivals.

They say the fortnight-long talks may involve being away for seven weeks as they will also have to isolate on return.

Countdown To COP26 On The Road To Failure

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Surely there can’t be much can left to kick down the COP road to nowhere.

PA Pundits International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

It is less than 60 days until COP26 convenes in Glasgow. We can expect a flood of climate horror stories (including flooding). But there will also be some discussion of the actual issues, so here is a brief breakdown of the big four.

Keep in mind that the alarmists have a bit of a civil war going on, between what I call the moderates and the radicals. The moderates have been at it for over 30 years and the radicals are fed up. The moderates now have a net zero target of 2050, while the radicals want 2030, so the difference is pretty stark. The last two COPs were partly paralyzed by this split, especially COP25. This fight will be a major factor in Glasgow.

The first two big issues are old business, money business to be precise. Of course it is all about money…

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Ned Nikolov: Demystifying the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect

Tallbloke writes:
Ned Nikolov has produced a video explaining what’s wrong with the currently fashionable radiative greenhouse effect hypothesis and laying out his and Karl Zeller’s better alternative theory which is supported by empirical data from across the solar system, rather than relying on the conjectures of C19th scientists.

Everyone should make the time to watch the whole presentation right through, but knowing how hard it is to find 75 uninterrupted minutes in the frenetic world we live in, Ned has kindly provided these links to the sub-sections:

00:00 – Introduction
01:46 – The Greenhouse-Effect Hypothesis
06:28 – Critical Analysis of the Greenhouse Hypothesis
19:56 – The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
43:27 – Greenhouse-Effect-In-a-Bottle Experiment
52:11 – Summary of Greenhouse-Effect Issues
56:23 – Nikolov-Zeller Climate Discovery
01:04:13 – Implications of the Nikolov-Zeller Discovery
01:08:07 – Nikolov-Zeller Peer-Reviewed Paper
01:08:43 – Pressure Heating & Cooling in the Atmosphere
01:12:48 – Expansion of the Nikolov-Zeller Model
01:14:21 – Greenhouse Hypothesis vs. NZ Climate Concept
01:16:44 – Conclusion

This video is also available on Vimeo:

Please review and comment on the presentation. Ned will be around to provide answers to questions and argue his case, so have at it. Support, criticism, suggestions for improvement are all welcome in our open peer review here at the Talkshop.
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Ned Nikolov comments:
This video convincingly demonstrates the physical insolvency of the current climate theory and the COP26 attendees need to pay attention. They should reconsider the present societal response to climate change, which needs to be based on a new understanding of how the Solar system’s climatic systems really work.

Alok Sharma appointed as minister for BEIS and COP26

Alok Sharma MP. Image Credit: Wikipedia Commons.

Alok Sharma gets a promotion in the cabinet reshuffle today:

Sharma was born in Agra, India, but moved to Reading with his parents when he was five years old.^[3] He was raised in the Reading suburbs of Earley and Whitley Wood and attended Reading Blue Coat School in Sonning^[4] and the University of Salford, from where he graduated with a BSc in Applied Physics with Electronics in 1988.^[5]

Sharma subsequently qualified as a chartered accountant.

Sharma was appointed Secretary of State for International Development by Boris Johnson following the resignation of Rory Stewart in July 2019. Upon ascending to the role, he said: “I am delighted… We will work across the whole of government to deliver Brexit and make sure UK aid is tackling global challenges that affect us all.”^[20]