Chris Martz: No, global warming is not causing more frequent Arctic outbreaks

Credit: weather.com

By what known physics could a few molecules of carbon dioxide upset the jet stream? A meteorologist is not impressed by such claims.

By Chris Martz | November 9, 2019
INTRODUCTION Just when wildfires weren’t enough, we now have people blaming cold weather on a warming climate, which seems quite contradictory.

In light of the Arctic outbreak in forecast this coming week, people like Phil Plait (who has since blocked me) took to Twitter (Figure 1) to claim that man-made climate change is causing frigid, Arctic air to be displaced south into the United States, Europe, and Asia.

His argument, which is supported by some climate scientists, suggests that man-made global warming causes the polar jet stream to destabilize causing it to become wavy rather than zonal, sending Arctic air southward into the mid-latitude regions.

He also stated that without global warming, the polar air would stay near the north pole.

Both of these claims are exactly backwards from reality and are not supported by weather dynamics, the global warming theory, or statistical observations in long-term temperature data.

Yes, it IS hard to believe there’s no evidence — so ask the IPCC yourself

All you’re likely to hear from promoters of climate alarm are ‘balance of probability’ arguments.
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“The influence of mankind on climate is trivially true and numerically insignificant.” – Dr Richard Lindzen

So you say the science is settled, you trust 97% of climate scientists and you call me a denier, writes Richard Treadgold @ Climate Conversation.

It’s hardly surprising and I sympathise with that view—we’ve been badgered over it for years.

But all we sceptics do is ask you, “What’s the evidence?” There’s no denial in that, so what’s your answer? If the science really is settled, what evidence is it based on?

Is Global Warming All Due To Super El Niño’s?

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Interesting question, but we’re still left with another one: what causes the super El Niños?

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

In a recent CFACT article, climate expert Joe Bastardi says super El Niños have caused all the atmospheric warming since satellite measurements began in 1978. I suggested this two years ago in a CFACT article titled “No CO2 warming for the last 40 years?” Now Joe has confirmed it.

The focus of Joe’s long article is that these super El Niños are natural.

Most importantly, here is Joe’s picture of the 1998-2000 super El Niño step up in global temperatures, with nothing but 15 to 20 year pauses on either side:

My description of this big step up, posted two years ago, is here.

There is little to no CO2 warming in the entire satellite record! Just a step up warming due to the super El Niño 20 years ago. I told you so. We may now have…

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East-West shift in El Niños since mid 1970s

The original headline for this article was: ‘Climate warming promises more frequent extreme El Niño events’. But since nothing is ‘promised’ it seems to rely too much on assumptions. For example, we are yet to see the full effects, if any, of the current very low solar minimum and the ‘quiet’ solar cycle expected to follow it.

El Niño events cause serious shifts in weather patterns across the globe, and an important question that scientists have sought to answer is: how will climate change affect the generation of strong El Niño events?

A new study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science by a team of international climate researchers led by Bin Wang of the University of Hawaii’s International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), has an answer to that question, reports Phys.org.

Climate: Uncertainty in scientific predictions can help and harm credibility

What if anything can ‘uncertain predictions’ about the climate tell us that might be worth taking seriously? Excitable headline-chasing fearmongers do nothing to help, especially when proved wrong.

The ways climate scientists explain their predictions about the impact of global warming can either promote or limit their persuasiveness, reports ScienceDaily.
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The more specific climate scientists are about the uncertainties of global warming, the more the American public trusts their predictions, according to new research by Stanford scholars.

But scientists may want to tread carefully when talking about their predictions, the researchers say, because that trust falters when scientists acknowledge that other unknown factors could come into play.

In a new study published in Nature Climate Change, researchers examined how Americans respond to climate scientists’ predictions about sea level rise.

International automotive researchers emphasize the importance of continued development of the internal combustion engine

Another cold shower of reality for misguided climate zealots.

Thirty-seven globally prominent scientists representing the International Journal of Engine Research have published an open-access editorial addressing the future of the Internal Combustion Engine, and stressing the importance for continued development of more efficient and even lower-emitting technologies.

The article provides an assessment of the state of power generation in the world today, and provides analyses of productive directions for the future, says Green Car Congress.

The editorial addresses important issues in the current politically charged discussions of global warming and climate-change alarm.

Back from the dead: Some corals re-grow after ‘fatal’ warming

Australian coral [image credit: heraldsun.com.au]

Another setback for know-it-all climate alarmism, but a win for resilient nature.

For the first time ever, scientists have found corals that were thought to have been killed by heat stress have recovered, a glimmer of hope for the world’s climate change-threatened reefs, says Phys.org.

The chance discovery, made by Diego K. Kersting from the Freie University of Berlin and the University of Barcelona during diving expeditions in the Spanish Mediterranean, was reported in the journal Science Advances on Wednesday.

Kersting and co-author Cristina Linares have been carrying out long-term monitoring of 243 colonies of the endangered reef-builder coral Cladocora caespitosa since 2002, allowing them to describe in previous papers recurring warming-related mass mortalities.

“At some point, we saw living polyps in these colonies, which we thought were completely dead,” Kersting told AFP, adding it was a “big surprise.”

Nir Shaviv: How climate change pseudoscience became publicly accepted

Obsessing about tiny percentages of trace gases in the atmosphere may be a popular sport in some quarters these days, but it’s an unproductive one.

Political and corporate leaders gathered for the climate week in New York City have urged significant action to fight global warming, writes Dr. Shaviv in the Epoch Times.

But, given the high costs of the suggested solutions, could it be that the suggested cure is worse than the disease?

As a liberal who grew up in a solar house, I have always been energy-conscious and inclined toward activist solutions to environmental issues.

I was therefore extremely surprised when my research as an astrophysicist led me to the conclusion that climate change is more complicated than we are led to believe.

The disease is much more benign, and a simple palliative solution lies in front of our eyes.

New Report Shows Decades Of Failed Climate Predictions

Credit: nationalreview.com

Funny how it’s the dire predictions that turn out to be overheated, but the climate…not so much. That doesn’t deter self-styled ‘campaigners’ from spouting the same kind of nonsense ad infinitum though. Doomsayers have been claiming time is running out for humanity since the 1970s at least, and the media still lap it up.

Think tank compiles decades’ worth of failed climate predictions
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently suggested Miami would disappear in “a few years” due to climate change, says Fox News (via The GWPF).

The United Nations is convening a “Climate Action Summit” next week. And climate activist Greta Thunberg is on Capitol Hill this week telling lawmakers they must act soon.

But while data from NASA and other top research agencies confirms global temperatures are indeed rising, a newly compiled retrospective indicates the doomsday rhetoric is perhaps more overheated.

AGU Statement on Climate Change

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‘Climate models predict that global temperatures…’ blah blah. These predictions are invariably out of step with reality by a wide margin, due to human-caused warming biases built-in to the computer software.

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Human induced climate change requires urgent action. – AGU

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Climate change: Electrical industry’s ‘dirty secret’ boosts warming – claims BBC

High-voltage switchgear [image credit: Dingy @ Wikipedia]

The BBC loves its so-called ‘greenhouse gases’ and is convinced they control the climate, but forgets that they mostly consist of water vapour and the alleged effects are based on failing climate models. Now it seems the dash for renewable electricity is adding even more of these supposedly fearsome molecules to the poor defenceless atmosphere. Clean, green electricity? Not quite. How will climate miserablists cope with this shocking – to them – news?

It’s the most powerful greenhouse gas you’ve never heard of, and levels in the atmosphere are soaring,wails the BBC.

Sulphur hexafluoride, or SF6, is widely used in the electrical industry to prevent short circuits and accidents.

But leaks of the little-known gas in the UK and the rest of the EU in 2017 were the equivalent of putting an extra 1.3 million cars on the road.

Levels are rising as an unintended consequence of the green energy boom.

Climate alarmists foiled: No U.S. warming since 2005

Somehow this apparently innocuous non-problem has to be hyped up into a crisis of epic proportions. To help achieve this, an army of climate spin doctors is always on hand to attempt the never-ending task of blaming humans for any kind of unpleasant weather.

When American climate alarmists claim to have witnessed the effects of global warming, they must be referring to a time beyond 14 years ago, says James Taylor @ RealClear Energy.

That is because there has been no warming in the United States since at least 2005, according to updated data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In January 2005, NOAA began recording temperatures at its newly built U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). USCRN includes 114 pristinely maintained temperature stations spaced relatively uniformly across the lower 48 states.

Northern tropical dry trend may just be normal variation

Intertropical Convergence Zone [image credit: University of New Mexico]

A key finding of this research concerns the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The researchers report ‘southward mean positions of ITCZ during the early Medieval Warm Period and the Current Warm Period in the central Indo-Pacific.’ This seems to contradict claims, repeated recently, that the MWP was confined to northern parts of the European and American continents, or at least was not global. But the ITCZ is a global phenomenon, which in turn suggests any recent warming (CWP) could have similar origins to the MWP – surely a somewhat inconvenient proposition for man-made greenhouse gas theorists. Remember this Climategate story – ‘We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period’?

Rainfall variations in the tropics not only potentially influence 40% of the world’s population and the stability of the global ecosystem, but also the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance, says Phys.org.

Beginning in the 20th century, a decline in northern tropical rainfall has been observed, with researchers unsure whether the decline stems from natural or anthropogenic causes.

New rainfall research has shed some light on this question, but left the final answer up in the air.

UN claims plant-based diet ‘can fight climate change’

Photosynthesis: nature requires carbon dioxide

More of the usual propaganda about ‘human-induced climate change’. Not mentioned is the fact that most of their so-called ‘greenhouse gas’ is water vapour, which has little or nothing to do with human activities, and much of the carbon dioxide has always been due to natural factors.

A major report says the West’s high consumption of meat is fuelling global warming, reports the BBC.

But scientists and officials stopped short of explicitly calling on everyone to become vegan or vegetarian.

They said that more people could be fed using less land if individuals cut down on eating meat.

Ecological land grab: food vs fuel vs forests

This is a prelude to a new IPCC report. It’s an exercise in mixing problems that do exist, like biofuels using too much land, with ones that don’t, like excess trace gases in the atmosphere. The end product is the usual alarm-and-confusion brand of propaganda for man-made warming believers, with wild talk of meltdowns, deadly extremes and so forth. More like a Hollywood script than anything resembling reality – but over-the-top stuff like this seems to be standard fare in much of the media nowadays.

The overlapping crises of climate change, mass species extinction, and an unsustainable global food system are on a collision course towards what might best be called an ecological land grab, says Phys.org.

Coping with each of these problems will require a different way of using of Earth’s lands, and as experts crunch the numbers it is becoming unnervingly clear that there may not be enough terra firma to go around.

A world of narrowing options threatens to pit biofuels, forests and food production against each other.

Roy Spencer – July 2019 was not the warmest on record

Image credit: livescience.com

A way of getting around some of the questionable data manipulations in vogue at present is proposed. Whether it would appeal to the ‘offenders’, so to speak, is another matter.

July 2019 was probably the 4th warmest of the last 41 years, writes Dr. Roy Spencer.

Global “reanalysis” datasets need to start being used for monitoring of global surface temperatures.

We are now seeing news reports (e.g. CNN, BBC, Reuters) that July 2019 was the hottest month on record for global average surface air temperatures.

One would think that the very best data would be used to make this assessment. After all, it comes from official government sources (such as NOAA, and the World Meteorological Organization [WMO]).

But current official pronouncements of global temperature records come from a fairly limited and error-prone array of thermometers which were never intended to measure global temperature trends.

NOAA on water vapor – 2019 edition

[click on image to enlarge]

NOAA’s latest offering on this topic is here. Of course we’re pitched into the world of ‘greenhouse gas’ theory. But it seems to be a world of considerable uncertainty, if the phrases highlighted (by the Talkshop) are anything to go by. Most attention is given to CO2 in the media, but it’s only a very minor player in the atmosphere (0.04%). There’s no accepted figure for ‘water vapor’ (NOAA uses US spelling) as exact data doesn’t exist, although ballpark estimates from various readings can be found. Why do greenhouse gas believers obsess about CO2 when they don’t know a lot about what’s going on with water vapor, which is on the face of it far more important to their theory?

Water Vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, which is why it is addressed here first. However, changes in its concentration is also considered to be a result of climate feedbacks related to the warming of the atmosphere rather than a direct result of industrialization.

The feedback loop in which water is involved is critically important to projecting future climate change, but as yet is still fairly poorly measured and understood.

UHI May Account For Half Of Climate Warming In China

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Whether the urban heat island effect is in fact warming ‘the climate’ is debatable, but in a propaganda war it can be made to seem so. In any case this needs as wide a coverage as possible, to offset at least some of the alarmist spin about supposed man-made warming that’s pushed down everyone’s throat on a daily basis.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

A new study by Nicola Scafetta shows that a considerable percentage of China’s global warming from 1940 to today is due to the phenomenon of urbanization. However, the models mistakenly associated this same warming to anthropogenic forcing:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811930102X?dgcid=author

Near-surface temperature records show that China warmed by about 0.8 °C from 1950 to 2010. However, there exists an ongoing debate about whether this warming might have been partially due to urbanization bias. In fact, homogenization approaches may be inefficient in densely populated provinces that have experienced a significant urban development since the 1940s. This paper aims to complement previous research on the topic by showing that an alternative approach based on the analysis of the divergence between the minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) near-surface temperature records since the 1940s could be useful to clarify the issue because urban heat island (UHI) effects stress the warming of nocturnal temperatures…

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Climate Swindle: Meet the new scare, same as the old scare

The climate apocalypse bandwagon first got going nearly as long ago as the first moon landing, but shows no signs of falling apart despite a dismal record of no-show of its forecasts, as Climate Change Dispatch explains. The urge to blame humans for any and all vagaries, real or imagined, of the climate seems deep-rooted despite this ongoing lack of predictive success.

This month, The Wall Street Journal celebrated its 130th anniversary by republishing salient articles spanning that period, including this retrospectively illuminating report from February 2, 1978:

A climatic disaster, triggered by the continued burning of oil and coal, could result in the submergence of much of Florida, Holland and other low-lying areas in the next 50 years, an Ohio State University scientist predicted… “I contend that a major disaster – a rapid five-meter rise in sea level caused by deglaciation of West Antarctica – may be imminent or in progress, after atmospheric carbon dioxide has only doubled,” John H. Mercer, a glacier geologist, asserted.

By some miracle, fortunately, Florida and Holland were still with us over a decade later.

CEI files formal complaint regarding NASA’s claim of 97% climate scientist agreement on global warming

Whatever exactly was supposed to have been agreed on, it must be difficult to show 97% support without any actual data to back it up. Is it any more than fake news?

The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) petitioned NASA to remove from its website the claim that 97 percent of climate scientists agree humans are responsible for global warming, reports The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

The petition, filed under the Information Quality Act (IQA), points out the major flaws in the studies cited by NASA to substantiate its claim. 

It requests the agency remove the claim from its website and stop circulating it in agency materials.