Posts Tagged ‘Global Warming’

Temperature Variation Due to ENSO

Posted: July 28, 2016 by oldbrew in Analysis, climate, ENSO
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Useful comparison of ENSO and (supposed) CO2 influences on climate by kenskingdom. ENSO correlations look significant, whereas CO2 – nothing to report really.
H/T Climate Depot

kenskingdom

In this post I use the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) supplied by NOAA at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html and lower tropospheric temperature data supplied by UAH to show how much of temperature variation over the past 20 years is due to ENSO and how little is due to CO2.  I will keep words brief and let graphics do the talking.

Firstly, here is the MEI data from 1950:

Fig. 1:  Monthly MEI from 1950

mei monthly

As an aside, this is how it compares with SOI data.  The SOI is inverted and both are scaled for comparison.

Fig. 2:  MEI compared with SOI inverted

mei vs soi

Now compare scaled MEI with Global UAH:

Fig. 3: MEI (scaled) and UAH

mei monthly w uah

Notice tropospheric temperatures appear to lag the MEI by some 5 months:

Fig. 4: MEI advanced 5 months and UAH

mei monthly advd 5m w uah graph

Notice both datasets are noisy, and there is a clear discrepancy in the early 1990s.  12 month running…

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We’re supposed to believe that CO2 levels determine global temperature, but here in plain sight is obvious evidence that they don’t.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Roy Spencer has news of a big drop in satellite temperatures last month:

NOTE: This is the fifteenth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. Note we are now at “beta5” for Version 6, and the paper describing the methodology is still in peer review.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2016 is +0.34 deg. C, down 0.21 deg. C from the May value of +0.55 deg. C (click for full size version):

UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2016_v6

This gives a 2-month temperature fall of -0.37 deg. C, which is the second largest in the 37+ year satellite record…the largest was -0.43 deg. C in Feb. 1988.

In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56 deg. C, just edging out -0.55 deg. C in June 1998 (also an El Nino…

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Image credit: nbcnews.com

Image credit: nbcnews.com


We’ve had the big UK vote but the ‘fun’ is only just starting. Some well-publicised EU-driven policies are now on short notice. A more credible energy policy seems a possibility.
H/T GWPF

When British voters chose to leave the European Union Thursday night, they weren’t just voting against Brussels’ immigration policies, they were also voting against Europe’s growing list of green mandates.

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Fearless Physics from Dr. Salby

Posted: June 20, 2016 by oldbrew in climate
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Ron Clutz features Dr Murry Salby’s new textbook ‘Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate’ which calls into question the narrow-minded thinking behind claims that carbon dioxide is a powerful climate driver, to the virtual exclusion of other factors.

Science Matters

“Fearless Felix” Baumgartner ascended to the stratosphere and stepped into the void from 24.2 miles above the Earth. His speed during the fall reached Mach 1.24, and the Austrian adventurer nailed the landing. October 14, 2012 Wired 

Introduction
Murry Salby is also totally committed to the atmosphere. He is a scientist with such deep and broad knowledge of atmospheric physics that he has written multiple textbooks on the subject. And yet he is not fearful for the future of our climate system, in contrast to many of his colleagues. By stepping away from “consensus” climate alarms, he has shown unusual courage by speaking plainly about the atmosphere and climate, despite attempts to silence him.

Dr. Salby’s latest textbook is entitled Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate (here). I got a copy and have been reading in it to understand where he comes down on various issues related to climate…

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Are we anywhere close to really understanding the strength of natural climate variation and how it works?

We can easily overlook that most temperature measurements are taken on land, but over 70% of the Earth’s surface is deep water.

Frederick Colbourne investigates.

Geoscience - Environment

Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia

The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was established in the School of Environmental Sciences (ENV) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich in 1972.

The CRU has collected, collated and archived global climate data for over 40 years.

CRU temperature data

In 1987, the American Meteorological Society published a paper by Stanley Grotch of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, University of California, that assessed the robustness of the CRU dataset for land and other datasets.

Monthly Weather Review, Volume 115 No. 7, July 1987, ISSN: 0027-0644; eISSN: 1520-0493

Abstract

Three data bases of gridded surface temperature anomalies were used to assess the sensitivity of the average estimated Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature anomaly to: 1) extreme gridpoint values and 2) zonal band contributions. Over the last 100 year, removal of either the top or bottom 10% of the gridpoint anomalies in any year changes…

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Gentoo penguins at Palmer Archipelago, off the Antarctic Peninsula [image credit: Liam Quinn / Wikipedia]

Gentoo penguins at Palmer Archipelago, off the Antarctic Peninsula [image credit: Liam Quinn / Wikipedia]


Looks like Antarctic climate warming scares have gone into a death spiral. What a shame after all those man-made attempts at doom and gloom, and harsh attacks on critics.
H/T GWPF

A group of scientists have just published a study that tries to explain why Antarctica isn’t warming as predicted, and its ice isn’t melting as climate models say it should be.

As Reuters reports, the researchers identified flows of cold, deep water as the primary reason our models are failing down there: A persistent chill in the ocean off Antarctica that defies the global warming blamed for melting Arctic ice at the other end of the planet is caused by cold waters welling up from the depths after hundreds of years, scientists said on Monday.

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Dive! [image credit: BBC]

Dive! [image credit: BBC]


Another manufactured climate scare takes a dive. Faulty science seems to be the issue. Nothing to see here, move along please!
H/T The Daily Caller

A new study by Canadian scientists once again debunks the notion polar bears are currently being harmed by global warming. Researchers with Canada’s Lakehead University found “no evidence” polar bears are currently threatened by warming.

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Antarctica [credit: Wikipedia]

Antarctica [credit: Wikipedia]


Indulging in climate fantasy can lead to some strange ideas, like this one. The idea of articles like this is presumably to infect the minds of the gullible with thoughts of impending crisis, where none should exist.

With sea levels rising and Antarctica’s temperatures well below freezing, some people [i.e. the authors?] have raised the question: What would happen if we took water out of the oceans and pumped it onto the icy continent to freeze?

A group of scientists put that question to the test in a new study that explores the physical possibility and economic feasibility of geoengineering climate solutions in the future.

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slowdown
Climate scientist Ed Hawkins comments on the paper of which he is one of the co-authors. Others include Ben Santer and Michael Mann.

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming ‘slowdown’ or ‘hiatus’, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented in a new commentary in Nature Climate Change by Fyfe et al. contradicts these claims.
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False alarm

False alarm


It may only be the conclusion of one expert, but it makes a change from the usual tidal wave of evidence-light negative assertions about the potential future of our Earth. He said it was ‘extremely difficult’ to find a correlation between carbon dioxide levels and temperature trends.

The global average temperature is likely to remain unchanged by the end of the century, contrary to predictions by climate scientists that it could rise by more than 4C, according to a leading statistician.
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credit:  John Evans and Howard Periman, USGS

credit: John Evans and Howard Periman, USGS

In between the climate scare stories come the excuses for the non-events the scares were about. How the world becomes ‘increasingly hot’ with little or no increase in average temperatures is not addressed.

As glaciers melt due to climate change, the increasingly hot and parched Earth is absorbing some of that water inland, slowing sea level rise, NASA experts said Thursday.

Satellite measurements over the past decade show for the first time that the Earth’s continents have soaked up and stored an extra 3.2 trillion tons of water in soils, lakes and underground aquifers, the experts said in a study in the journal Science. This has temporarily slowed the rate of sea level rise by about 20 percent, it said.

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NOAA graphic

NOAA graphic


The GWPF reports: The conservative watchdog group Judicial Watch announced Tuesday that it is suing the Obama administration to obtain the same internal communications of federal scientists sought by a House committee in a dispute over global warming research.

The group said in a news release that it filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Washington on Dec. 2 against the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, seeking the agency’s “methodology for collecting and interpreting data used in climate models.”

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Congress asks: warming pause – yes or NOAA? 

Posted: November 17, 2015 by oldbrew in Dataset, pause, Politics
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Seas getting warmer?

Seas getting warmer?


Time for the NOAA to front up and explain to US public representatives how it came up with its own temperature data that ran counter to everyone else’s, as GWPF reports.

Scientists and top officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have agreed to start interviews akin to depositions this week with House investigators, who are demanding to know their internal deliberations on a groundbreaking climate change study.

But the interviews may not be enough to placate the chairman of the House science committee, a global warming skeptic who last week stepped up the pressure on the Commerce Department to comply with his subpoena for e-mails that NOAA has refused to turn over.

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Re-blog of a post by Russell Cook on American Thinker

We’re told there is a moral imperative to stop catastrophicDnyer human-induced global warming, as seen in twin events last week where Pope Francis implied as much in his visit to the US, and within a letter signed by 20 scientists to President Obama imploring him to use the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) to punish immoral “corporations and other organizations that have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change.”

The operative word in these twin events is the word “trust.” Trust that the pope sought the advice of the whole range of experts on global warming, and trust what the authors of the RICO letter (viewable now only in archive form here, since it has been erased from its original online location) say in their second paragraph about extensively documented sources proving the corruption of those “corporations and other organizations”.

What happens if you attempt to verify if the situations are true? First, the pope is revealed to have received advice on the global warming issue from highly questionable individuals, and second, the RICO letter’s assertion about extensively documented corruption is revealed to be a literally unsupportable talking point.

Allow me to elaborate on that second problem.

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No science here [image credit: Michigan Chronicle]

No science here [image credit: Michigan Chronicle]


The latest absurdity of the climate controversy is summed up at the American Elephants blog.

They are panicking! Some climate people have bet the farm on a dangerously warming earth, and the need to instantly switch to clean natural energy so we aren’t polluting the world by burning nasty coal and using nasty gasoline and creating the CO2 in the atmosphere that is causing all the trouble. It’s our fault.

But we are promised a colder winter, the claims of a lack of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic are disproved by satellite photography. There’s millions and millions of subsidies and grants building wind farms and solar arrays, and they are still not producing much energy at all.

The science of global warming is so settled that 20 climate scientists have written to President Obama to ask him to prosecute the people who “have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change as a means to forestall America’s response to climate change.”

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[credit: softpedia.com]

[credit: softpedia.com]


Phys.org is running an article headed: On Wikipedia, politically controversial science topics vulnerable to information sabotage. This is no great surprise apart possibly from the fact that it’s being openly discussed by academics.

Wikipedia reigns. It’s the world’s most popular online encyclopedia, the sixth most visited website in America, and a research source most U.S. students rely on. But, according to a paper published today in the journal PLOS ONE, Wikipedia entries on politically controversial scientific topics can be unreliable due to information sabotage.

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Yet another inconvenient story to be swept under the ‘official climate science’ carpet.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

We are supposed to believe that Antarctic glaciers have only recently started to recede.

Back in 1932, they knew that the process had begun in the 19thC.

image

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/23150667

Sir James Ross undertook his expeditions to the Antarctic in the 1840’s.

Interestingly, Bernacchi accompanied Scott on the 1901-04 Antarctic expedition. and Scott was best man at his colleague’s wedding in 1906. Bernacchi was invited to go on Scott’s ill fated second expedition, but declined due to family commitments.

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Time To Connect The Dots

Posted: August 14, 2015 by oldbrew in alarmism, Idiots, Incompetence, media
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New York Times 2005: ‘Hurricanes have therefore become bigger and more destructive and are likely to grow even more violent in the future.

This cycle cannot be reversed any time soon.’

Climate fortune telling is a risky business.

Real Science

Ten years ago, experts told us that hurricanes like Katrina and Rita were the new normal, due to global warming.

ScreenHunter_10077 Aug. 14 09.07

Time to Connect the Dots – The New York Times

The period since has been the quietest on record for US hurricanes, with no major (category 3-5) hurricanes.

ScreenHunter_10076 Aug. 14 09.02

Weather Street: 2015 Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

It is time to connect the dots, and recognize that climate experts have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

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[image credit: Richard Austin News Pictures]

[image credit: Richard Austin News Pictures]


Long-time critic Christopher Booker says: THE MORE MONEY THE MET OFFICE GETS, THE MORE INACCURATE ITS DOOM-MONGERING [Date: 07/08/15, Daily Mail]

The performance of the Met Office for which we pay £220 million a year is not just a joke, but a major scandal. And well done the BBC for allowing Quentin Letts, for once, to point this out.

Very surprisingly and somewhat boldly, on Wednesday morning Radio 4 put out a programme by the Mail’s Quentin Letts which ran flatly counter to the BBC’s normal party line on one of its very favourite subjects, global warming.

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HADCRUT Cool The Past Yet Again

Posted: August 5, 2015 by oldbrew in alarmism, Dataset, MET office
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The longer the so-called pause – the new normal? – goes on, the more popular ‘cooling the past’ becomes with state-funded organisations like the Met Office. Check the satellite records.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

HADCRUT have just released their latest version 4.4, and guess what? Yes, the past has been cooled again!

This is is how things have changed since version 4.3.

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