Predictions!
Welcome to the Predictions! page. I’ll update this with predictions posted on the Predictions! discussion page .Please use the link to get to that page to post predictions and comments on them.
Successful predictions will get a big green tick. Failures will get a big red cross. Points will be given for accuracy, and points mean prizes! 🙂
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PROJECTIONS.
Maximum center for C24 estimated at 1yr. before the alignment center = early 2013. It will be augmented from 2010 to 2013, with peaks above C23, strongly in 2010, with August and October being likely dates for large solar flares.
Verdict: FAIL
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Richard Holle
www.aerology.com/national.aspx
24 July 2010
The real center of circulation (making land fall in Huston today) [it will be back in 109 days ready to talk business] was West of the rain band that they called Bonnie, Because there are no major outer planets having a synod conjunction with the earth until mid August, the precipitation was “missing” from the center of circulation, as the global circuit is still in the ion charge mode, it increases global precipitation rates post conjunctions. (Remember the flash floods in March, April?)
The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of September. There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.
I would expect to see an increase in background seismic activity 30 days both sides of the double conjunction. Just wait till they start saying the AGW caused all of the sudden activity right on (planetary scheduled) time.
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Steve Goddard likes forecasts. Some months ago on here I forecast that by feb 2011 UAH would be below the Dec 2007-Jan 2008 anomaly. This is based on my understanding of solar-ocean interactions and I still stand by it.
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lol…very hairy chested here, sure I am asking some questions but let me say quite clearly, I am expecting a massively cold winter for the northern hemisphere. My prediction on SC24/25 is absolute, both cycles beneath 50SSN (as Wolf would measure) but short term weather has many variables, the current conditions do indeed look ominous.
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The return of Murphy`s winter, 1837/8, will be from late January/February 2017, earlier in January will be milder. {+179.05=112 Venus synodic periods}
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My prediction stands. We’re just ahead of the curve and it’ll take 6 months to trickle down to the mainstream. ATM the entire blogosphere is abuzz with reconsidering back-radiation. It will take 6 months until the media will have to take notice. Then we will see the first headlines like “Biggest climate swindle ever.”
tallbloke, you can put that on your predictions page. Jan 2011.
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MASSIVE FLOODS
The current Saturn opposite Jupiter and Uranus heliocentric configuration marks many of the most serious floods in history (1500yrs of UK and Chinese records, and even some dates from Babylon)
Summer floods occur at a temperature drop, the biggest drop this summer is from mid August.
Winter floods occur at a temperature uplift, expect a very wet November again, wetter than last November.
VOLCANIC ACTIVITY
The strong series of temperature spurts starting from late August and through September and October 2010, will give a peak in volcanic activity.
(also Southern Hemisphere floods through this warmer period)
An Indian Summer supreme for the Northern Hemislphere, kicking in strongly from mid Setember, uplfted strongly again early Otober and continuing through the month.
After a silly warm November, the begining two thirds of December will be slightly below normals. The next time it dips appreciably cooler than normals is bits later in February and in March 2011, that will wet things up down under !
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A 179 year and 1 month return of The Great Caribbean Hurricane event, landfall Setember:
http://www.spiritus-temporis.com/1831-barbados-hurricane/
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(July 23) — For the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 14 to 23 named storms, with eight to 14 becoming hurricanes, meaning they have top winds of 74 mph or higher. NOAA says three to seven of these could become major hurricanes of Category 3 or above, with winds of at least 111 mph. The 2010 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean began June 1 and will end Nov. 30.
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Looking back at the data from the Neutron Monitor, with the arrival of this CME, we’ve seen the cosmic ray count drop to levels not seen since before the last solar minimum. For those looking at the short term climate ramifications, as we climb to to Solar Max 24 in 2013, we’ll see increasing amounts of these CME’s, increasing solar irradiance, much lower cosmic rays, and a tenth or so of a degree added to global temps.
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UPDATE 2: WUWT commenter R. Gates notes that the Moscow Neutron Monitor is showing a huge drop in cosmic rays coincident with this CME, which is what you’d expect
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Looking back at the data from the Neutron Monitor, with the arrival of this CME, we’ve seen the cosmic ray count drop to levels not seen since before the last solar minimum. For those looking at the short term climate ramifications, as we climb to to Solar Max 24 in 2013, we’ll see increasing amounts of these CME’s, increasing solar irradiance, much lower cosmic rays, and a tenth or so of a degree added to global temps.
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richard verney says:
January 3, 2011 at 4:04 pm
It looks like the sea surface temperature variation may have bottomed out at – 0.1C and is not going to fall as low as 2008.
Unfortunately SST will continue to decline well into this year. Steeply asides from the occasional pause. It will bottom out well below 2008.
-0.32C +/-0.05 by September on Roy Spencer’s metric according to my model.
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Tornado production is a result of Lunar declinational tides pulling air masses from more equatorial areas into the mid-latitudes, so the peak production times when they form can be predicted as the periods from Maximum North culmination to three days after, a couple of days when the moon crosses the equator headed North, and as the moon reaches maximum South declination and several days after.
These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Between the induced charge differential between the +ion concentrations riding on the more equatorial sourced air mass, established ahead of the dry line front of -ion concentrated more polar air mass, that sweeps in from the West, forcing the precipitation into the rapidly moving narrow band of severe weather from which the tornadoes form on the trailing edges.
The periods when these effects will be most likely to occur this spring,
2-25/28 for three days, which we just had, around max South.
3-5/7 slight chance of small outbreak
3-12/17 starting in Arkansas through Kentucky and the Ohio river valley
3-25/30 Starting Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas through Ohio river valley the beginning of a long period of very wet activity most of April.
4-5/8 start up of activity
with the re-enactment of the 1974 outbreak most possible in the period
4-8/13 Maps of the expected precipitation can be found on my site, bearing in mind that the tornado and severe activity usually forms in the fast moving part of the frontal and not usually in the areas of heaviest total daily precipitation.
On the maps show on my site you can expect to see the tornado development in the areas with the “netted” looking precipitation patterns due to the usual nature of the part of the front where they occur.
1974 is one of the analog years for my forecast method, which is why I mention we may see a replay of that out break. It is also why I am in Mesa Az., instead of Kansas this spring.
[edit] results of this prediction updated almost daily
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I think what we are going to see is a peak effect around March 30 when Jupiter is perihelion to April 3rd when Saturn is in synod conjunction with the earth. With the Alaskan peak activity about 5 days either side of the center of that time.
Then a rotation down the Eastern edge of the ROF down the west coast of North America, for the first two weeks of April 2011. Commensurate with the large outbreak of tornadoes in the USA.
Followed by central America Haiti and Dominican republic areas, then down the west coast of South America. by the end of April 2011.
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Michele says:
January 1, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Forecasting….big earthquake 12-13 January ?
Probability…..Interplanetry magnetic field low.
small sunspots
http://www.solarham.com/stereobehind.htm
Earth-Venus-Neptune alignment.
Big question ?
I study the continent…
It will be interesting to see if there is a magnetic pole correlation at those spots. I did note was a solar flare 19 January:
Now if we get a big earthquake in North America in the next week or two, I’m going to remind everyone about the spot that formed over Japan just before their quake 😉
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” William M. Connolley says:
February 11, 2012 at 8:36 am
Does anyone actually believe any of this nonsense about rapid temperature falls over the next few years? If so, I have $1k that says you’re wrong. Do you think these wise Norwegians, or the author of this post, will be interested?”
On WUWT
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Patrick Geryl writes:
So X flare also possible on March 19 around 12.00 UTC
For March 21 it is complicated… 2 flares are possible or 1 giant one
First one: 18.00 UTC
Second 24.00 UTC
[moderation note] If Patrick does well with these predictions I’ll put up a post for him and the rest of his longer term list here.
UPDATE: Patric sent me a new prediction today 6th April 2012:
Prediction for April 22nd, 2012
Conjunction Mercury – Pluto and the Sun
Conjunction Venus – Mars and the Sun
Opposition Uranus – Venus – Mars across the Sun
Trapezium like configuration (parallelogram) from Earth – Mars –Venus -Mercury
Triple Line Ups on April 22, 2012
On day itself: Venus – Mars – Uranus
Extra Triple Line Ups:
Neptune – Earth – Mars
Earth – Mercury – Uranus
Venus – Mercury – Neptune
Conclusion: For April 22, 2012… Because of the trapezium (parallelogram) like configuration, the conjunctions, opposition and the 3 Triple Line Ups… Large scale effects are possible on the Sun… One of these will happen: X flare, filament eruption or CME. But a powerful X flare combined with a BIG filament eruption(s) or BIG CME(s) is possible… Maybe even something reminiscent like the August 1, 2010 event… Undoubtedly this is the strangest Line Up from the planets for the first half of the year….
Will the effects be visible from Earth? That is a difficult question to answer… The Triple Line Ups with Neptune and Uranus end at the back from the Sun and are therefore not viewable from Earth… However, the positions from Venus and Mercury are on the Earth facing side of the Sun…
The trapezium configuration looks perfect around April 25… We have seen X flares appear days to 2 weeks after the perfect trapezium (see: Study of Largest X Flares Ever Recorded)… But this is a guess…
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Prediction from Ulric Lyons 5th April 2012
In a nutshell, the overview is some very warm spells through
May and June, heat waves at times, May has a brief temp` drop
from about the 18/19th, another chance for much needed rain.
Cooling and wetter from earlier in July, warming late July,then
another cooler wetter couple of weeks from mid August.
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/01/tornado-outbreak-tracking/#comment-909920
Seems to still be as valid now as then…
Richard Holle says:
March 1, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Once again the Lunar declinational tidal effect is responsible but goes unmentioned, The moon was maximum North declination on the 1st of March, the solar declination seasonal tide is incoming from the South adding to the effect and making the resultant tropical air mass surge two days sooner than the usual, peak production on the day of Maximum North lunar declination and three days after.
I have had daily forecast maps for this expected precipitation posted for 51 months now;
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
Details on how it works are posted on the site, in the blog/research section.
You can watch the incoming lunar tidal bulge sweep in from the Southwest in their short movie, and the back side more polar air mass brings in the negative static/ionic charges that gave added power to the temperature front to drive the condensation high enough to generate the tornadoes.
Over the next three days as the fetch of moisture slides East across Texas into the Gulf states, and the moon starts to head South again, Just as we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Mars on the 3rd, this is very likely to bring on another round of tornadoes.(they got that part right anyway) see my maps for these days as well.
Last year the big outbreak was enhanced by the heliocentric conjunction with Saturn, on the 3rd of April, which will be occurring on the 15th of April this year, so you can expect more outbreaks to occur from the 4-10-2012 Maximum South lunar declination and four day after window, another much larger 2 or 3 day burst as the moon crosses the equator on 4-17-2012. Then the heavy action through the end of the month of April, ending in last hurrah of big snows into the first week of May. Appalachian Ice storm seems to be on the 3rd through 5th of May, buy your replacement power poles early.
Ulric Lyons says:
It was done, I made a deterministic solar based forecast for at least 3 weeks very cold conditions for March. The forecast was based entirely on heliocentric planetary analysis. Next winter has a long intense cold shot from the second week of January to the end of Feb/early March.
2014/12/06 at 3:17 pm
To PAUL/IAN/ULRIC see what I have done. I have presented a climate forecast based on specifics which is easily falsified or can be proven correct. I would like this same sort of thing from all of you.
If all the positions of the planets/moon are known and their associated gravitational /climate influences upon the earth then a climate forecast for the next 5 years should be easy according to what you all try to convey.
HERE IS MY CLIMATE FORECAST AND WHY . THANKS.
Many of us are of the opinion that the chances of cooling going forward are near 100%.
CO2 is a non player in the global climate picture as past historical data has shown.
CO2 and the GHG effects are a result of the climate not the cause in my opinion.
I maintain these 5 factors cause the climate to change and they are:
Initial State Of The Climate – How close climate is to threshold inter-glacial/glacial conditions
Milankovitch Cycles – Consisting of tilt , precession , and eccentricity of orbit. Low tilt, aphelion occurring in N.H. summer favorable for cooling.
Earth Magnetic Field Strength – which will moderate or enhance solar variability effects through the modulation of cosmic rays.
Solar Variability – which will effect the climate through primary changes and secondary effects. My logic here is if something that drives something (the sun drives the climate) changes it has to effect the item it drives.
Some secondary/primary solar effects are ozone distribution and concentration changes which effects the atmospheric circulation and perhaps translates to more cloud/snow cover- higher albebo.
Galactic Cosmic Ray concentration changes translates to cloud cover variance thus albedo changes.
Volcanic Activity – which would put more SO2 in the stratosphere causing a warming of the stratosphere but cooling of the earth surface due to increase scattering and reflection of incoming sunlight.
Solar Irradiance Changes-Visible /Long wave UV light changes which will effect ocean warming/cooling.
Ocean/Land Arrangements which over time are always different. Today favorable for cooling in my opinion.
How long (duration) and degree of magnitude change of these items combined with the GIVEN state of the climate and how they all phase (come together) will result in what kind of climate outcome, comes about from the given changes in these items. Never quite the same and non linear with possible thresholds.. Hence the best that can be forecasted for climatic change is only in a broad general sense.
In that regard in broad terms my climatic forecast going forward is for global temperatures to trend down in a jig-saw pattern while the atmospheric circulation remains
THE CRITERIA
Solar Flux avg. sub 90
Solar Wind avg. sub 350 km/sec
AP index avg. sub 5.0
Cosmic ray counts north of 6500 counts per minute
Total Solar Irradiance off .15% or more
EUV light average 0-105 nm sub 100 units (or off 100% or more) and longer UV light emissions around 300 nm off by several percent.
IMF around 4.0 nt or lower.
The above solar parameter averages following several years of sub solar activity in general which commenced in year 2005..
IF , these average solar parameters are the rule going forward for the remainder of this decade expect global average temperatures to fall by -.5C, with the largest global temperature declines occurring over the high latitudes of N.H. land areas.
The decline in temperatures should begin to take place within six months after the ending of the maximum of solar cycle 24.
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Ulric says:
June 30, 2014 at 2:14 am
From late 2015, Jupiter is opposite Neptune which is a cold signal, and Saturn is square to Neptune which is also a cold signal. The cold periods will commence from when the bi-sector of Earth and Venus is towards Saturn (on either side of the Sun), and warmer from when the bi-sector of Earth and Venus intersects the Jupiter/Neptune line.
1st cold shot is from early Nov 2015:
http://snag.gy/dic8T.jpg
2nd from mid March till mid June 2016,
3rd from mid Aug to late Oct 2016.
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Ian Wilson says:
Salvatore Del Prete,
You may have missed my recent predictions, so I will re-post them here so that you can see them:
Here is my ~ 9 year year ENSO cycle in each corresponding 31 year tidal epoch:
The following show the dates of strong El Nino events between 1870 and 2025. These events include both past and future (predicted) events.
The specific predictions are:
2015-16 –> 2024-25 with 2019-20 as a possible half cycle.
for the next three El Ninos up to 2025.
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A. Full Moon Epochs
1st FULL MOON EPOCH [1870 to 1901]
1877-88 –> 1888-89 –> 1896-97 –> 1905-06 with 1899-1900 as a half cycle
2nd FULL MOON EPOCH [1932 to 1963]
1940-41 –> 1951-52 (weak) –> 1963-64 (weak) with 1957-58 as a half cycle
3rd FULL MOON EPOCH [1993-94 to 2024-25]
1997-98 –> 2006 –> 2015-16 –> 2024-25 with 2019-20 as a possible half cycle.
B. New Moon Epochs
1st NEW MOON EPOCH [1901 to 1932]
1902-03 –> 1911-12 –> 1918-19 –> 1931-31 with 1925-26 as a half cycle
2nd NEW MOON EPOCH [1963 to 1993-94]
1965-66 –> 1972-73 –> 1982-83 –> 1991-92 with 1987-88 as a half cycle.
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Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
· 6m 6 minutes ago
There is no super nino, or 2 year nino. JAMSTEC blew cfsv2 out and will do so again. La Nada summer 15, La nina 2016
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How much of a temperature jump should we expect? Last month, Trenberth explained to Living on Earth:
Trenberth says it could mean a rise of two- or three-tenths-of-a-degree Celsius, or up to half a degree Fahrenheit. The change could occur “relatively abruptly,” but then stick around for five or 10 years.
I interviewed Trenberth this week, and he told me that he thinks “a jump is imminent.” When I asked whether he considers that “likely,” he answered, “I am going to say yes. Somewhat cautiously because this is sticking my neck out.”
http://tomnelson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/long-awaited-in-global-warming-now.html
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ECMWF Long-Term Weather Model Is Predicting a Super El Niño and I Mean Super
Figure 1 presents the ECWMF plume of sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts for the NINO3 region (5S-5N, 150W-90W), with some of the runs reaching highs in November 2015 in the neighborhood of +4.5 deg C
Forecast super El Niño for fall nearly double the strength of 1998 Super El Niño
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Data of SCs 22 and 23 such as [Tpre]22 = 9.4168, [Tpre]23 = 11.25, [E]22 = 5.6159, and E23 = 5.2617 enable us to predict the descent times for SCs 24 and 25 as [Td]24 = 6.84 ± 0.09 years and [Td]25 = 5.77 ± 0.21 years, respectively.
http://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2015/01/swsc140052/swsc140052.html#T1
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Chapter 17 – The New Little Ice Age Has Started
by
H.I. Abdussamatov
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-804588-6.00017-3
Quote from the Abstract:
The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11.
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